Football Question: Would You Lay -2.5 (-115) or -3 (+110)?

[wantitall4moi]

In the NCAA it is almost NO factor whatsoever.


Posted this the other day over at the other placeFirst things first.

It (my NCAA football database) has 15331 games in it.

Secondly, "pushes" on 3--- 33 since 1980. THAT is amazing. Totals games closing -3 636. So obviously the 3 isn't as big a number in college as it is in the NFL. Only 636 of 15331 games closed on it. So what we see is that 33/636 is a 5.2% push rate. Pretty insignificant.

...
5.2% push rate make it worth just about a dime, if andonly if you couldn't have gotten -2.5 or +3.5 somewhere else or at another time.


That is the more important part of this argument. Of the 65 games that closed -3 and pushed -3 that I cite, 31 of them were widely available at other numbers during the week, or at differing books. Granted with some increased vig both ways, but they were still available.

I have to think this question in in direct relation to the Bears/Panthers game this week. Where you can get Car -2.5 -114, or you can buy them to -3 +105 (now) maybe they were +110, but I highly doubt it.

That is Pinnacle's split, so if they are only charging 19 cents to do it, I know for a fact that me saying it is worth 12-14 is a lot more accurate than saying it is worth 23 cents. Pinnacle isn't going to give you a chance to do something and pay LESS than they think it is worth, they always overcharge for it.

But the debate wioth that line makes it all moot, since all my numbers and results are based on games that CLOSE -3, not 2.5 games that land on 3. I CAN do that if you want, but since people don't really care about actual data, and only what sounds right, I won't bother unless someone wants to see it.

 

[Journeyman]

-3 +110 *IF* you're professional and betting big dollar amounts

If you're just betting 100 bucks recreationally, I would lay the -115

the professional answer is -3 +110, and like so many have said, in college football -3 is not a factor in this decision at all...

 

[quantumleap]

With all due respect, I don't believe 138 instances is statistically significant to prove your point in regards to -3 hitting for games under a total of 37. Do you have access to a larger database that would give more instances?

 

[CapnHandi]

The data that wantitall4moi cited covers over 600 games (2 NFLseasons) and says that only 13 times when the total was less than 37 was there a push at -3.

I have data for 7 seasons that shows the same. I don't know where to get any more data but I bet -115 it wouldn't be any different for NFL.

 

[wantitall4moi]

With all due respect, I don't believe 138 instances is statistically significant to prove your point in regards to -3 hitting for games under a total of 37. Do you have access to a larger database that would give more instances?

That goes back to 1989, in my opinion going back before 1994 (the year the 2 pt conversion came back) is skewing the numbers as well. But since most people, like you, want more examples, I use what I have.

But yes I do have one that goes back to 1983, and it actually makes the numbers even worse for your argument, and better for mine. On that one the push rate on 3 is 8.3% or 7.8% (I can't remember) I haven't run it in awhile, but I know it was below 9%.

But you can only use the examples that the games themselves give. So by saying my sample size isn't significant enough, you are in essense saying that the amount of games played thus far is insufficient to make an accurate prediction in the first place. Which is actually probably an accurate statement. But I work with what I have, which is a lot more than most people that argue this topic have.

 

[6nout]

Wantitall, I'd be interested to know the data of games 2.5 falling 3. That's one hell of a database u got if you have accurate closers for all the games. It would also be interesting to know how many 7 games fell fav. by 3 as apposed to 7, if it's not too much trouble.

I don't doubt you and how your data says nothing about totals affecting 3 but do you really think this is the case that the affect a projected low scoring (tight) game has on the odds of it falling 3 is insignificant?

Thanks for taking the time to post your findings and thanks again if you post some more.

 

[wantitall4moi]

Wantitall, I'd be interested to know the data of games 2.5 falling 3. That's one hell of a database u got if you have accurate closers for all the games. It would also be interesting to know how many 7 games fell fav. by 3 as apposed to 7, if it's not too much trouble.

I don't doubt you and how your data says nothing about totals affecting 3 but do you really think this is the case that the affect a projected low scoring (tight) game has on the odds of it falling 3 is insignificant?

Thanks for taking the time to post your findings and thanks again if you post some more.

I posted the numbers for the ranges Daringly quoted (although I think he had a mistype when he said 48, I believe he meant 38) SO I used MORE THAN 37, and LESS THAN 37 totals.

I can run the numbers for closer of 2.5 and 3.5 that have 3 point margins of victory by the favorite.

BTW the numbers I use are for DB closers, they are not always the most common number. For example, a couple weeks ago when Pitt and Balt played they have that game CLOSING -11. I believe most people agree that game was -11.5. So even with DB, there is questions, but I use them because I can get the data easy, and they have archives you can get info from.

 

[wantitall4moi]

Results...

line = -2.5 ATS OU SU query
112-125-0 (-1.5) 101-133-3 (-0.6) 125-111-1 (1.05) line = -2.5

line = -2.5 and margin =3 ATS OU SU query
15-0-0 (0.5) 9-5-1 (9.7) 15-0-0 (3.00) line = -2.5 and margin =3

line = -3.5 ATS OU SU query
133-153-0 (0.1) 140-141-5 (1.6) 178-108-0 (3.65) line = -3.5

line = -3.5 and margin =3 ATS OU SU query
0-33-0 (-0.5) 18-15-0 (2.3) 33-0-0 (3.00) line = -3.5 and margin =3