sports_quant said:
for starters look for lesser known teams and conferences, non TV games...it's a good place to start...also you can check certain sites that track actual volume...example if the volume is around 50% but the line is moving one way , sharper action and larger action is forcing the number to move.
most of those moves are mostly middles.out of the 50 games they bet on saturday theres only only about 5 to 10 real plays.everything else ia buybacks or middles.trust me i now.i used to move steam now its not worth it any more.before donbest started we were able to find super soft lines.now a days its not even worth trying.
aha!
You just jogged my memory....there was a Covers poster who did what you are talking about... he called it "reverse line move". He would look for games where the consensus was all on one side, but the line moved in the opposite direction.
People made fun of him for it, but he seemed to do well.
Journeyman said:
You just jogged my memory....there was a Covers poster who did what you are talking about... he called it "reverse line move". He would look for games where the consensus was all on one side, but the line moved in the opposite direction.
People made fun of him for it, but he seemed to do well.
Iceman said:
Ice, make us a believer. Post the steam games you are playing right after you play or right after tipoff. Give us a good sample so as to get the real picture. WIll not be hard you can post team 781 -2, 754 +3 etc etc...or teams names and line whatever. We will look forward to it.
geno25 said:
I would concur with this statement as back when I mentioned I booked and followed that pager like a hawk it was so obvious what the steam plays were.
Now with the advent of the internet I'm not seeing those crazy moves.
I can remember times when I'd have 30 guy;s on say Fla. -10 look down at my pager and the lined move to -9.5 and I'd scratch my head and think I:m not making that line move.
Alright, so im going back over the games today, and seeing what would have classified as steam plays, and here is what I came up with:
UMASS (8,000 wagers only...Line opened at -1 then went to -2.5 before the game.)
North Texas (6500 wagers only...Line opened +7.5 then dropped to +6 at tip)
Fairfield (3000 wagers only...Line opened at pick, then went to Fairfield -1.5 at Tipoff)
Are these the games you had as well Iceman, or any others?
UMASS (8,000 wagers only...Line opened at -1 then went to -2.5 before the game.)
North Texas (6500 wagers only...Line opened +7.5 then dropped to +6 at tip)
Fairfield (3000 wagers only...Line opened at pick, then went to Fairfield -1.5 at Tipoff)
Are these the games you had as well Iceman, or any others?
Iceman said:
i would say there is a short term fluctuation last few weeks in the steam direction that makes it seem that its easy to beat NCAA hoops. if you get the pre steam number or maybe only 1/2 point worst of it by following along. Ice is being a bit braggish on how easy it is, things can humble in a hurry. still a great thread.
This is a great thread and I look forward to reading more about this......I followed steam in CFB about 6 years ago for a couple of seasons.....DId great the first year and half of the second year, then the wheels completely fell off and I stopped following. A lot of the 12 noon games got steamed 5-10 minutes prior to kick and I bet those games hit about 80% of the time the first year.
Never followed it with NCAA hoops though.
Never followed it with NCAA hoops though.
steam, no steam. Bottom line is the Pinny lean wins. I have went 55% the last 2 hoops seasons following this and that is over 1,500 plays, which is a good sample size and one I trust. Maybe some won't be able to find them as easy as I have because of the time and effort I am putting into this, maybe some are 1st halfs and halftimes, maybe some are at smaller books or with locals, totals are also out there.
I have no agenda on this. What I am getting at is points mean almost everything in hoops. Put the time and beat line moves or find half point to 1 point edges and you will win. I have studied this like a maniac the past year and it works best in hoops (esp CBB) where the smart/sharp money is stronger (IMO).
I have a buddy who is a novice bettor and have sort of took him under my wing this hoops season and pounded this into his head and he has won and won at the same rate I have seen and he is just using 2 locals so most of his plays are steam plays 1 hour before tipoff. Not saying I am some big beleiever in steam in other sports (in fact like to fade it in NFL) but in CBB it has won for the 2 seaons I have followed it.
I have no agenda on this. What I am getting at is points mean almost everything in hoops. Put the time and beat line moves or find half point to 1 point edges and you will win. I have studied this like a maniac the past year and it works best in hoops (esp CBB) where the smart/sharp money is stronger (IMO).
I have a buddy who is a novice bettor and have sort of took him under my wing this hoops season and pounded this into his head and he has won and won at the same rate I have seen and he is just using 2 locals so most of his plays are steam plays 1 hour before tipoff. Not saying I am some big beleiever in steam in other sports (in fact like to fade it in NFL) but in CBB it has won for the 2 seaons I have followed it.
Iceman said:
ICEMAN-- I hear what your saying, but you need to elaborate some more.
For example, you said you usually wait until just prior to tip to bet. However, the UCLA total moved real early today. Do you wait prior to tip to see if it moves back or what is your reasoning for this? In other words did you bet this when it moved or did yo wait until 8PM to bet it?
Also, let's say I write down all early lines for tomorrow night. A bunch of the mwill move all day (sides & totals). Be more specific as to what games you play and when you choose to play them. Like I said, I did this years back with CFB and had some success, but never with hoops..Thanks.
I look at Pinnacle sometimes, too.
Hard to read when a line is 8 everywhere, and Pinnacle stays stuck on - 7 (@ -123 or so), are they just hanging out on an off number, with the vig making it about the same price ?? .. or is Plus 8 the winning play?
Is there a 2nd book you look at Iceman, for us stat guys who crunch/stare?
Hard to read when a line is 8 everywhere, and Pinnacle stays stuck on - 7 (@ -123 or so), are they just hanging out on an off number, with the vig making it about the same price ?? .. or is Plus 8 the winning play?
Is there a 2nd book you look at Iceman, for us stat guys who crunch/stare?
