I am tracking my system for the season as well as the original system (all roadies), so I will have that spreadsheet. I have Det and Mil as well but banked TB yesterday when I faded them. I still can't believe f*ing SF blew a 7 run lead. Based on last season and the fact I am fading the worst teams, I am hoping close to $20k.
I have 4 series still open, Det, Mil, Phil and SF. I am fading Wash and they would have closed their series yesterday against Phil.
I have 4 series still open, Det, Mil, Phil and SF. I am fading Wash and they would have closed their series yesterday against Phil.
Just trying to figure all this out so forgive me if I am thinking wrong.....
This system will make you play the ML dogs at a 1-2-4 interval until they win a game and then that series is closed. The most I can lose on any one series is 7 units. When playing against the bottom 6 to 8 teams, play the -1.5 run line on the favorite until they cover. Do I have this completely wrong?
BTW, thanks for the spreadsheet. My version looked nothing like this but I see why it was done the way you did it.
This system will make you play the ML dogs at a 1-2-4 interval until they win a game and then that series is closed. The most I can lose on any one series is 7 units. When playing against the bottom 6 to 8 teams, play the -1.5 run line on the favorite until they cover. Do I have this completely wrong?
BTW, thanks for the spreadsheet. My version looked nothing like this but I see why it was done the way you did it.
edpit said:
Not quite, here is the explanation
http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=368832
let me know if not clear
play road team -1.5, 1-2-4 until you win or series ends, whichever is first. Play home team -1.5 if one of the worst is the roadie.
fhm, i have been following this system since ssi started talking about it a couple of weeks ago. i would like to run some number scenarios as well. i hate to ask since you have done this a million times already, but can you forward me your spreadsheet also. i really appreciate it...now let's make some $$$... bdfish@hotmail.com
FHM,
You sent me the spreadsheet awhile back and I have been busy
studying it as you know; but I don't know how to update -
do i need to be skilled at Excel or is there some easier way.
By the way, eliminating the dogmeat has been very profitable
but I don't see a correlation between that and betting -1.5
on the home fav - do you have any history on this?
Once again, great job - thx
MP
You sent me the spreadsheet awhile back and I have been busy
studying it as you know; but I don't know how to update -
do i need to be skilled at Excel or is there some easier way.
By the way, eliminating the dogmeat has been very profitable
but I don't see a correlation between that and betting -1.5
on the home fav - do you have any history on this?
Once again, great job - thx
MP
I have just been updating it daily. You don't need to do anything special, only need to input the outcome of the games for the particular day. I can send to you periodically if you wish.
The correlation is that since those teams lose often and get swept regularly, why not bet the team they are playing? If those teams lose a lot, someone is winning and it is their opponent. I didn't review how their opponents did last year, but intuitively they had to do well if those 7 teams are losing 60+% of their road games and ending up -3000 or -5000 on the year under the system. Right?
The correlation is that since those teams lose often and get swept regularly, why not bet the team they are playing? If those teams lose a lot, someone is winning and it is their opponent. I didn't review how their opponents did last year, but intuitively they had to do well if those 7 teams are losing 60+% of their road games and ending up -3000 or -5000 on the year under the system. Right?
FHM,
Yes of course when a team wins less than 40% of its road games, then
by definition the opponents must be doing well but the question is
how many games were won or lost by one run (all of which would be
losers if you play opponent -1.5 runs).
Possibly there is a slightly different approach which would correlate
more directly.
By the way, congrats on early success - would you mind reviewing
in a post your list of "no play" road teams?
I'll try to manually update spreadsheet but if could send out current
version much appreciated.
Mathprof
Yes of course when a team wins less than 40% of its road games, then
by definition the opponents must be doing well but the question is
how many games were won or lost by one run (all of which would be
losers if you play opponent -1.5 runs).
Possibly there is a slightly different approach which would correlate
more directly.
By the way, congrats on early success - would you mind reviewing
in a post your list of "no play" road teams?
I'll try to manually update spreadsheet but if could send out current
version much appreciated.
Mathprof
