Fantasy Football News 2014/15

Search

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
140,720
Tokens
[h=1]Week 11 flex rankings
in.gif
[/h]
By Eric Karabell | ESPN Insider

Welcome to Week 11 and a critical flex rankings, as we combine the best of the running backs, wide receivers and tight ends into one package to help aid your decisions. Should you rely on these or any other rankings you see on ours or any other site? Nope. Use the glorious information at ESPN Fantasy as a guide, set your lineups, make your pickups and then, hope for the best. Remember the ESPN trade deadline is next week, and we’ll be advising about which players we’d be buying and selling, as well.As always, best of luck to all -- in Week 11 and beyond!
1. Matt Forte, RB, Bears: Sunday night was the first time he hadn’t scored at least 20 standard fantasy points -- and he’s better in PPR -- since Week 4. In other words, don’t worry. He’s fine.

2. Arian Foster, RB, Texans: A groin injury has him questionable, but, coming off a bye, it would be surprising if he sat.

3. Le'Veon Bell, RB, Steelers: He’s the No. 5 RB for the season, so if someone who owns him whines to you, tell him or her to stop.

4. Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs

5. Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers: We might be waiting years for him to catch fewer than five passes in a game. Hope that didn’t jinx him!

6. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos

7. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks: I’m well aware he comes off a four-TD, 40-point fantasy effort. But the Chiefs, you know, haven’t allowed a touchdown to a running back this season. And ranked seventh is still pretty good!

8. Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers

9. Eddie Lacy, RB, Packers

10. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions: Looked fine in Week 10. Hope you didn’t sit him. And the Cardinals can and do get thrown on.

11. Randall Cobb, WR, Packers: The Eagles get thrown on, too.

12. Jeremy Maclin, WR, Eagles: And the Eagles throw, too. Mark Sanchez is certainly suitable enough, even though Maclin was quiet Monday night.

13. Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Broncos

14. Alfred Morris, RB, Redskins

15. Julio Jones, WR, Falcons: Great matchup, and, if he doesn’t exploit it, we’ll view his value differently. He’s been quiet since about Week 3.

16. Mark Ingram, RB, Saints: Fantasy monster! And it really doesn’t matter whether his running back colleagues are healthy. It’s Ingram’s show.

17. Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots
18. Jimmy Graham, TE, Saints: Ah, if only they hadn’t called the last-second end zone push-off. And he did push off. Please.

19. LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles: He’s sixth in the NFL in rushing, so, again, it’s not as if he’s been Adrian Peterson. Your first-round pick wasn’t so awful. Sure, we’d like more touchdowns, but he isn’t the bust of the year. The guy who might or might not get reinstated next week, the first pick in most leagues, he’s that guy!

20. A.J. Green, WR, Bengals: Doesn’t look so great, and you already know about his QB. Might be the last time Green is ranked this high.

21. T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts

22. DeSean Jackson, WR, Redskins

23. Golden Tate, WR, Lions: Fantastic in yards after the catch, and the Cardinals have a weakness for this.

24. Julius Thomas, WR, Broncos: Ronnie Hillman goes down; a better blocker is inserted; and suddenly Thomas has his most catches and yards since Week 5. Coincidence? I think not!

25. Frank Gore, RB, 49ers: Hey, the Giants have allowed the most rushing yards. It’s a fact. And Gore rushes the ball. If you truly dislike him, nobody’s forcing you to activate him.

26. Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Panthers

27. Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Colts

28. Jeremy Hill, RB, Bengals: I doubt Giovani Bernard will play. If he does, Hill is considerably less desirable.

29. Martavis Bryant, WR, Steelers: Rookie run! And this rookie is making quite the impact. I know this is a generous ranking, but nobody has stopped him yet. Seems as if it’s wise to enjoy it.

30. Sammy Watkins, WR, Bills

31. Brandon Marshall, WR, Bears

32. Shane Vereen, RB, Patriots

33. Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers: Repeat after me: There’s nothing wrong with Josh McCown. There’s nothing wrong with Josh McC…

34. Roddy White, WR, Falcons: Better than his pal Julio the past month. Not that Jones owners have noticed.

35. Andre Ellington, RB, Cardinals: Tough matchup, new quarterback, I’m not treating him like a top-10 RB this week.

36. Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Giants

37. Greg Olsen, TE, Panthers

38. Alshon Jeffery, WR, Bears: Not a great matchup for your Bears wide receivers this week. Vikings have done nice work against the pass.

39. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans
40. Ryan Mathews, RB, Chargers: Welcome back! This rank really isn’t cautious at all, odd because we don’t know whether he'll get a ton of work. I just think he will.

41. Rashad Jennings, RB, Giants: Same here. Chargers and Giants want their starters back. They figure to use them.

42. Mike Wallace, WR, Dolphins

43. Steven Jackson, RB, Falcons: The best Falcon the past few weeks, and another nice matchup. No, he’s not too old.

44. Andre Johnson, WR, Texans

45. Jerick McKinnon, RB, Vikings: Personally, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if Peterson is playing in Week 12. But he’s not playing this week. McKinnon, though, really hasn’t been so great. Hasn’t found the end zone yet.

46. Julian Edelman, WR, Patriots

47. Vincent Jackson, WR, Buccaneers: I wouldn’t cut him. I know you want to, but try not to.

48. Fred Jackson, RB, Bills: Should see a much nicer workload this week. But it’s a tough matchup.

49. C.J. Anderson, RB, Broncos: I think he'll start and has a shot to do really good things. But we can’t pretend that he’s the only running back who will play, or that the Broncos will run a lot. They throw. A lot.

50. Brandin Cooks, WR, Saints: Clearly the top Saints wide receiver at this point. Man, this is an amazing rookie class of wide receivers.

51. Terrance West, RB, Browns: OK, so I ranked him first among Browns running backs. But the Browns are going to use all three and see who takes the job. It could be any of them, which means none of them is an attractive option.

52. Ben Tate, RB, Browns

53. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals: Goodbye, Carson. Hello, Drew. And I probably ranked Fitz better than most.

54. Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers

55. Mohamed Sanu, WR, Bengals: Andy Dalton fired one 6 feet over his head while I was typing this.

56. Trent Richardson, RB, Colts

57. Brandon LaFell, WR, Patriots: It’s a week-to-week fantasy world, but don’t forget what he was achieving before the bye. A lot!

58. Dwayne Allen, TE, Colts

59. Bishop Sankey, RB, Titans: Five or six fantasy points in each game since Week 6. If that’s what you’re looking for, go get it!

60. Pierre Garcon, WR, Redskins

61. Lamar Miller, RB, Dolphins: Not a great option in a short week and with his injury.
62. Darren Sproles, RB, Eagles: Sure does make many big plays, but volume isn’t there. And he has caught only 21 passes in eight games, which is hard to believe. The Eagles are underusing him!

63. Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers

64. Anquan Boldin, WR, 49ers: The top San Francisco weapon these days.

65. Joique Bell, RB, Lions: It’s a tough matchup, so even if he was the only running back in Detroit -- which he sure isn’t -- try not to expect much.

66. Montee Ball, RB, Broncos: Nice to have him back, in theory, but no idea whether it’ll be 15 touches or three.

67. Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts

68. Kendall Wright, WR, Titans

69. Tre Mason, RB, Rams: The rookie running backs have disappointed. He has the job, but he’s not doing much. Denver will make sure that continues by scoring touchdowns early.

70. Marques Colston, WR, Saints

71. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers: Didn’t look so bad Monday night. Not a good flex option, but not the worst anymore.

72. Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks: Remember when everyone loved him? How he’d really step up with Percy Harvin gone? He has six more points than you in the past two games combined.

73. Martellus Bennett, TE, Bears

74. Jonas Gray, RB, Patriots: Will be interesting to see whether his carries go up after the bye -- or not. He has a shot to be a valuable option.

75. Bryce Brown, RB, Bills: It’s unfair to call him a serial fumbler, but his fine running isn’t what many people remember from Week 10.

76. Andrew Hawkins, WR, Browns

77. Charles Sims, RB, Buccaneers: Gets another chance this week, and deserves it.

78. Bobby Rainey, RB, Buccaneers

79. Kenny Stills, WR, Saints: Might be the last time he’s ranked worse than Colston, which says much about both players.

80. Rueben Randle, WR, Giants: Lean, mean target machine has already been passed by the rookie.

81. Malcom Floyd, WR, Chargers
82. Michael Floyd, WR, Cardinals: Watch him get back on track after the QB change. That’s fantasy.

83. Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers

84. Jared Cook, TE, Rams: Broncos can be vulnerable against the tight end.

85. Reggie Bush, RB, Lions

86. Branden Oliver, RB, Chargers

87. James Jones, WR, Raiders

88. DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers

89. Isaiah Crowell, RB, Browns: Seems so talented, don’t drop him yet.

90. Jordan Reed, TE, Redskins

91. Greg Jennings, WR, Vikings

92. Matt Asiata, RB, Vikings: Three touchdowns or nothing!

93. Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Vikings: Two touchdowns all season. What a waste.

94. Damien Williams, RB, Dolphins

95. Andre Williams, RB, Giants

96. Jordan Matthews, WR, Eagles: Some view him as a reliable star now after his multi-TD game Monday, but I’m not there yet.

97. Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs: This is the week! This is the week! This is probably not the week.

98. Carlos Hyde, RB, 49ers

99. Wes Welker, WR, Broncos

100. Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders

Others: Harry Douglas, WR, Falcons; Larry Donnell, TE, Giants; Markus Wheaton, WR, Steelers;John Brown, WR, Cardinals; Jarvis Landry, WR, Dolphins; Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs; Knile Davis, RB, Chiefs; Anthony Dixon, RB, Bills; Chris Polk, RB, Eagles; Kenny Britt, WR, Rams; Khiry Robinson, RB, Saints; Roy Helu, RB, Redskins; Andre Holmes, WR, Raiders; LeGarrette Blount, RB, Steelers; Justin Hunter, WR, Titans; Antone Smith, RB, Falcons
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
140,720
Tokens
[h=1]RG III an intriguing start this week[/h][h=3]Use Insider's ultimate matchup chart to set your lineup for Week 11[/h]
By Christopher Harris | ESPN Insider

Matchups are often a deciding factor for fantasy owners making lineup decisions between two or more players, but gauging the difficulty of each player's opponent can be tricky. That's where the Harris Index come in -- providing fantasy owners with a schedule-independent way to assess how strong opponents really are.
Each week, I'll update the Harris Index and offer a few nuggets about possible starts and sits based on the numbers. But please scroll down and play with the chart, sorting by various columns to discover which opponents are best and worst for your players to face.
Finally, please realize that this index is just one instrument I use in creating my weekly ranks. To get a direct sense of which players I think you should start and sit, please consult those rankings.
Here are some players I have identified as good or bad matchups using the data in the chart:
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">
</center>[h=3]Quarterbacks[/h]Good matchup: Robert Griffin III, Washington. Matt Ryan didn't do as much last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as I had hoped, but he was close: He overthrew Julio Joneson what would've been a long score, and a wide-open Devin Hester dropped a pass in the end zone. No doubt there's risk any time you fire RG III in your lineup, but if you're desperate, he's a chance worth taking.
<offer></offer>
Bad matchup: Ryan Mallett, Houston Texans. This wouldn't be a week to take a shot on the Texans' new starter. Mallett is as unproven as they come, and the Cleveland Browns have taken 6.5 fantasy points away from the season averages of the quarterbacks they've faced in the past five weeks.
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">
</center>[h=3]Running backs[/h]Good matchup: Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints. Not that you were benching the scorching-hot Ingram anyway, but his matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals sets him up for another great week. I recommended the Browns backfield last week, and three different guys scored touchdowns. I'm not the least bit nervous about using Ingram even if Pierre Thomasand/or Khiry Robinson return.
Good matchup: Jerick McKinnon, Minnesota Vikings. The Chicago Bears have been a relatively easy mark for opposing running backs, giving up higher-than-average performances toEddie Lacy, Jonas Gray and Lamar Miller in their past three. McKinnon is an interesting fill-in flex, though as we saw in Week 9, he can certainly lose goal-line plunges to Matt Asiata.
Bad matchup: Tre Mason, St. Louis Rams. Mason managed 81 yards from scrimmage against a rough Arizona Cardinals defense last week, and I've loved him on tape. But did you know Zac Stacy still has more fantasy points than Mason does? With him playing against a good Denver Broncos run defense this week, you may have better options available.
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">
</center>[h=3]Wide receivers[/h]Good matchup: Andre Holmes, Oakland Raiders. Just a month ago, I was in the process of being lambasted for not liking Holmes enough. Then he submitted games of 3, 12, 2 and 0 fantasy points, and the heat is off. But if you're looking for an intriguing daily-league guy or even a deep-league fill-in at WR, you could do worse. The San Diego Chargers have been generous to opposing receivers.
Bad matchup: Brandon Marshall, Bears. The Vikings have removed 8.9 fantasy points from the averages of opposing wide receivers over the past five weeks, and Marshall has been annoying to own. Yes, he saved your bacon Sunday night with a garbage-time touchdown, but he also injured his other ankle. I'm not saying he's a must-bench. He's talented, and eventually the Bears will get clicking again on offense. But if I had other options, I'd be thinking about sitting him.
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">
</center>[h=3]Defense/special teams[/h]Good matchup: Washington D/ST. What an outrage! The Jacksonville Jaguars are on bye, so we can't just plug-and-play their opponent. In fact, the Harris Index indicates that the Rams have been the best offense for opposing defenses to face over the past five weeks -- Austin Davis' fourth-quarter meltdown last week played a big part in that -- but they face a Broncos defense that's mostly owned. So you can try Washington, who faces a Bucs offense that gives up sacks and turnovers galore.
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">
</center>[h=3]The Harris Index: Week 11[/h]Each number presented here reflects how far above or below a player's average a defense holds opponents at each position. Read the index thusly: "Team X currently holds an opposing QB to this many fantasy points above (for a positive number) or below (for a negative number) the QB's average."
Numbers that appear with a light green background indicate a statistically significant positive matchup; those with a light red background are a statistically significant negative matchup. Dark green and dark red mean extreme matchups on either end of the spectrum.
[h=3]Harris Index: Week 11[/h]<i style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;"><inline1>
TeamQB
Past5
QB
2014
RB
Past5
RB
2014
WR
Past5
WR
2014
TE
Past
TE
2014
DST
Past 5
DST
2014
Week 11
Opp.
i
-2.9-1.6-4.5-4.1-0.40.8-1.80.4-3.1-1.8Det
i
3.31.4-0.66.53.03.21.8-1.92.80.1@Car
i
3.60.1-2.3-5.53.71.40.7-1.4-0.6-1.8BYE
i
-2.9-1.7-2.9-5.23.82.5-4.8-2.61.00.7@Mia
i
-0.10.92.73.11.61.10.60.03.92.7Atl
i
4.83.53.41.3-3.7-0.89.06.12.31.7Min
i
-0.1-1.68.14.8-5.5-5.6-0.51.00.3-0.9@NO
i
-6.5-2.4-0.31.5-5.5-1.3-2.7-1.81.8-1.2Hou
i
0.3-0.4-1.3-1.3-2.5-2.70.63.40.30.7BYE
i
1.01.1-5.4-3.80.40.12.11.3-4.8-6.9@StL
i
-3.2-4.5-3.5-3.3-1.6-5.4-3.7-0.8-4.1-0.1@Ari
i
0.0-1.1-2.40.67.13.2-0.2-0.8-4.7-2.1Phi
i
-1.5-0.73.52.53.34.1-3.8-3.3-1.9-0.7@Cle
i
3.81.0-0.81.14.3-3.02.82.5-0.7-4.5NE
i
-1.30.11.42.41.2-0.4-2.40.75.47.5BYE
i
-0.7-2.4-1.4-2.2-1.2-1.6-2.7-2.00.2-1.8Sea
i
-5.4-4.3-4.30.8-4.0-2.6-3.6-2.70.0-0.3Buf
i
-3.4-3.44.83.1-8.9-3.2-1.6-2.82.33.0@Chi
i
1.60.23.23.8-3.1-2.54.51.2-8.2-4.4@Ind
i
-3.61.21.52.3-3.81.2-1.6-1.8-3.6-2.8Cin
i
1.40.05.02.9-3.8-3.26.63.9-0.8-1.0SF
i
-2.32.2-3.2-3.1-5.8-0.11.42.01.02.2BYE
i
2.30.35.55.2-1.2-2.00.7-0.21.11.6@SD
i
-1.02.8-2.81.31.14.4-0.8-2.7-1.9-2.3@GB
i
2.31.0-2.8-1.51.10.22.12.1-2.3-1.6@Ten
i
5.01.53.30.310.81.9-3.5-1.6-0.9-2.8Oak
i
-0.3-1.2-1.5-5.62.91.1-1.0-2.51.11.3@NYG
i
-2.8-2.62.8-1.8-2.2-4.5-0.40.82.6-0.3@KC
i
3.01.7-2.6-3.73.13.91.4-0.56.06.2Den
i
6.62.9-2.00.312.16.7-2.2-0.52.45.6@Wsh
i
-1.2-0.21.30.8-3.10.52.20.81.92.1Pit
i
2.55.1-0.5-3.40.81.11.13.0-1.60.5TB

<thead style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</thead><tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</tbody>
</inline1>
</i>

 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
140,720
Tokens
[h=1]Fantasy advice on Newton, Stafford[/h][h=3]Which up-and-down QBs can you trust? Plus, thoughts on the Pats' Jonas Gray[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Matthew Berry[/FONT] and [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Tim Hasselbeck[/FONT] | ESPN Insider

Every week during the NFL season, Matthew Berry will be engaging in a discussion with an NFL expert on topics that will provide valuable insights for fantasy owners. For this pre-Week 12 edition, Berry and ESPN NFL analyst Tim Hasselbeck weigh in on inconsistent quarterbacks, including Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford and Ben Roethlisberger. Plus, they debate what to make of Patriots RB Jonas Gray's breakout performance in Week 11 and the Vikings' RB situation.
[h=3]Can Cam Newton and other up-and-down QBs be trusted the rest of the way?[/h]
Matthew Berry: Welcome back, Tim. It's always fun talking fantasy football with you. We've done Fantasy Football Now for a while, you write a weekly fantasy column for Insider -- you're becoming one of us!
Tim Hasselbeck: Evidently it happens to everyone at some point in their career, or so I'm told.


Berry: I want to start off with a fantasy quarterback who has been something of a lightning rod this season: Cam Newton. He struggled early, then had the huge game against Cincinnati before coming back down to earth, and he's currently coming off a pretty nice fantasy performance in Sunday's loss to Atlanta.
In the fantasy playoffs, can owners trust Newton?
<offer></offer>
Hasselbeck: I actually think they can, believe it or not. Now, I'm not a huge Newton supporter and I wouldn't want him to be my real-life QB, especially after seeing how he's played this season. His mechanics have not been great, and then there was some confusion between him and coach Ron Rivera after the Philadelphia game as to whether he was hurt. That kind of stuff concerns you a little bit from an NFL perspective.
But here's the deal: He's had only one game in which he produced single-digit fantasy points, which means that as bad as he's been, you can basically pencil him in for double-digit fantasy points. He's on a bye next week, but after that, his schedule is pretty good. The road game at Minnesota in Week 13 is probably the toughest defense he has left to face, with New Orleans, Tampa Bay and Cleveland his opponents during the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 14-16). If you can deal with him being on a bye this week, he could be a top-10 fantasy QB during the stretch run.
Berry: I think it depends on the size of your league, but if your league is deep enough that you can roster two quarterbacks, you can probably get him really cheap right now. And who knows, maybe you can ride him to wins in the playoffs.
Hasselbeck: Think of it this way: Would you rather have Newton against the Browns in Week 16, or Jay Cutler versus Detroit or Russell Wilson versus Arizona? I think Newton will have value at the end of the season.
Berry: I think your point about playing the matchups with your QBs in the fantasy playoffs is a really interesting one. Unless you've got a stud like Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck, positioning yourself so that you have the option of two QBs you can use in the playoffs -- making your starting call based off the matchups -- is a good strategy to consider.
What about another confusing fantasy QB, the Lions' Matthew Stafford? It feels like he should be putting up huge numbers in that offense, especially with Calvin Johnson back from injury, but he's coming off a very poor fantasy performance against Arizona and the Patriots are up next on the schedule. What should Stafford owners do?
Hasselbeck: At this point of the season you're probably stuck with him, unless you can make a last-minute trade or you have another start-worthy QB on your roster. You're more likely just hoping he plays better. But I do think there's some hope for that. Probably not this week against New England, as I think the Patriots' defensive backs will match up well against the Lions' receivers. Bill Belichick can employ a game plan similar to the one he did against the Colts' receivers, and generally speaking, the versatility and talent of their personnel in the secondary allows the Pats to get creative in defending opposing passing attacks.
However, the schedule does lighten up after that. Chicago in Week 13, Tampa Bay in Week 14, Minnesota in Week 15 and Chicago again in Week 16 makes for a relatively easy closing stretch. Those are good matchups where you could see Stafford getting you at least 15 fantasy points per game. He really hasn't had much of a connection with Johnson, and based on their shared history you have to think there will be a time when those two get back on track. I just wouldn't be expecting gaudy numbers from Stafford, that's all.
Berry: Another factor here is that the running game has been inconsistent, so Detroit figures to throw it a little more down the stretch. And you're right about the schedule getting easier.
The hottest pickup target on the waiver wire this week is Patriots RB Jonas Gray, following his four-TD performance against the Colts. I'm curious as to what you saw from him. Fantasy owners have learned the hard way over the years about trusting New England running backs in fantasy football, and he might not have four touchdowns the rest of the season. I mean, he might not even have two touchdowns the rest of the season.
Hasselbeck: You're right about that, and I think it's a matter of the Patriots doing as good a job as anybody at identifying their opponents' weaknesses and how they want to attack them. The Colts had a secondary that had been playing well but a front that wore down easily, and so the Pats went at them with the power running game. I highly doubt they'll do the same thing against Detroit's dominant front seven. I can understand why you'd want to add Gray to your roster, but Matthew, is he even a top-25 running back this week?


Berry: I think he's probably right about at the No. 25 mark.
Hasselbeck: Who will you have higher, Gray or Shane Vereen?
Berry: I'll rank Vereen higher.
Hasselbeck: I agree with you on that. I just don't think they'll try to jam the ball down Detroit's throat. The better plan of attack is likely to try to create mismatches in the passing game, and Vereen can provide that for them.
Looking ahead on the schedule, Week 15 versus Miami might be another Gray-heavy game as the Pats try to nullify the Dolphins' pass rush, but are they going to try to run against the Jets' defensive line in Week 16? I don't think so. My advice would be to be careful about picking your spots with him going forward.
Berry: Belichick uses his entire roster as much as any coach in the league, and certainly with the most effectiveness, so any player could get the call at any time. It's going to be hard for fantasy owners to count on Gray for consistent week-to-week production, even though the high-upside potential is there.
Another running back situation that fantasy owners will be paying attention to is Minnesota's. Following the news Tuesday that Adrian Peterson is suspended for the rest of the season, Matt Asiata and Jerick McKinnon will remain the primary options there. I know you own McKinnon in our ESPN league -- what are your thoughts on him the rest of the way, in light of the Peterson news?


Hasselbeck: You and I have been saying all season long that McKinnon is the more talented runner than Asiata, and even though he loses the goal-line carries to Asiata, I think he's the fantasy back in Minnesota that you want to own right now. That said, he really hasn't been as productive as we thought he could be with a full workload. He has a little more value in PPR leagues and deeper leagues, and his schedule isn't bad the rest of the way, but he's probably not an every-week starter in standard leagues.
Berry: Yeah, McKinnon is a tricky one to peg. The Packers in Week 12 are a good matchup on paper, because their run defense hasn't been great, but there's a chance they could get up big early and the Vikings will have to abandon the running game. So I'd be reticent to start him in that game, and tough run defenses loom in Weeks 14 and 15 with the Jets and Lions, respectively. But as you mentioned, he's a talented guy. I view him as a high-upside flex option the rest of the season, not a starting running back.
I've got one last topic to run by you, Tim. One of the nuttiest fantasy storylines of the season has been the up-and-down performance of Ben Roethlisberger. He wasn't doing much of anything early in the season, then he went out and threw six touchdowns, then he threw six touchdowns again, and since then he's followed that up with two pretty mediocre games.
We know Roethlisberger is a great NFL QB, but his fantasy production has been all over the map. I'm curious as to what your take is there.
Hasselbeck: Outside of those six-TD games you referenced, in which he scored 44 and 35 fantasy points, respectively, do you know how many 20-point fantasy games he's had? One, against the Bucs in Week 4. So I think he's much closer to a guy who gets you 18 points than one who gets you 28. Obviously, six TDs is an outlier for any QB, and he's not usually much of a yardage guy.
But perhaps most significantly, the Steelers have a really good reason to be balanced on offense in Le'Veon Bell. He is an excellent running back, and they love getting him the football. I think the ideal game plan for them has always been to run the ball as often as Roethlisberger throws it, in order to limit the number of hits he takes in the pocket.
Berry: Roethlisberger is a great NFL QB, but just a good fantasy QB. He's in the same general 8- to 14-point range as Newton, Matt Ryan and Colin Kaepernick -- to me at least. He's not going to kill your team most weeks if you have him starting, but those big games he put up are outliers.
Hasselbeck: That's why I think he's the perfect guy to float in a trade offer, if you can. He's the fourth-ranked fantasy QB, and because of those two big weeks he's got a great fantasy reputation this season, but his production the rest of the way is likely to be just average. So if you can trade him for a lesser QB like Newton or Kaepernick who might be as productive if not more productive the rest of the way, and get another player you like thrown in, that would be a pretty good deal.
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
140,720
Tokens
[h=1]Ranks reaction: Assessing Bengals RBs
in.gif
[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Eric Karabell[/FONT] | ESPN Insider

While the return of Cleveland Browns wide receiver Josh Gordon to active duty might be the biggest story coming out of Ohio and in fantasy football in general, it’s not like he’s pushing aside a top-10 option or overcoming some major injury. Gordon is a fantasy monster, and while I ranked him a bit conservatively for his Week 12 season debut in comparison to him finishing as fantasy’s No. 1 wide receiver last season, I’m actually more interested in how the other Ohio team handles its running back situation.
Giovani Bernard is slated to return from injuries to his hip and clavicle -- who knows for sure what’s really ailing him? -- but bruising rookie Jeremy Hill has played so well that Bernard owners might prefer the clarity of having him not play at all.
It sounds odd, but consider the possibilities: We knew Bernard wasn’t going to be active in Weeks 10 and 11 in time to find another fantasy option, but this week he’s supposed to play and there’s uncertainty in how many snaps he will see and what he will be able to do with them. Hill has outscored Bernard for the season after rushing for more than 150 yards in two of the past three contests. Prior to that and Bernard leaving the lineup, this wasn’t much of a time-share. Bernard got most of the touches, and while he was productive, he wasn’t top-10 productive. Nobody is saying Bernard will suddenly turn into New England Patriots runner/receiver Shane Vereen, who is really overrated in fantasy, but I ranked Hill as nearly an RB1 this week and Bernard was No. 21. I think that’s fair, and certainly there’s the chance Bernard isn’t 100 percent and is used sparingly.
I’m also not 100 percent confident star wide receiver A.J. Green is back to 100 percent health from his toe woes, but Cincinnati's Week 12 foe, the Houston Texans, is so woeful against opposing wide receivers -- no defense permits more fantasy points to WRs -- that his inclusion as a top-10 option is secure. Green showed up on my sell-high list after Week 11, but that’s more about December than this week. And Andy Dalton probably made some ridiculous pass while you were reading this. The Bengals are an interesting fantasy team to watch, but my advice down the stretch would be to tread lightly on the stars, namely Bernard and Green. It’s possible Hill is the only value option here.
As for Gordon, you can make a case he’s a top-five wide receiver this week or not top-20. Honestly, good luck. This is a new Browns offense with new people in charge. Gordon is supremely talented, and the fact he missed the first three months doesn’t scare me so much, though comparing his absence to the two-week ban last season tells us nothing. That was two weeks in early September. What Gordon provided statistically in Week 3 of 2013 is no harbinger of what’s ahead this Sunday. The Browns have other weapons, and last year they really didn’t. I ranked Gordon as a safe WR2 and feel good about it, and I think he has some nice matchups the rest of the way. But so does running back Isaiah Crowell.
Quarterback: The Washington Redskins are terrible, on both sides of the ball, so I like the San Francisco 49ers’ Colin Kaepernick as a top-10 QB. The fact he last scored as many as 14 fantasy points in Week 6 doesn’t concern me. … Similarly, I’m pleased to see nobody’s really on board with Robert Griffin III as a starter. I ranked him 15th last week. Forget his rookie year, people! O-ver-ra-ted. … No, I don’t feel so good about Detroit Lions starter Matthew Stafford this week, but I like him over Philip Rivers and Mark Sanchez. One’s injured, the other a turnover machine. … I tried to rank Josh McCown closer to the top 10, but then I remembered he’s Josh McCown.

Running back: Just because Jonas Grayran all over the Indianapolis Colts for 201 yards and four scores doesn’t mean the Jaguars’ Denard Robinson will do so this week. But I ranked Robinson 10th because he’s really good, they’re really bad, and nobody is stealing touches from him. … That said, Gray is not a particularly great play against a tough Lions defense this week. Doesn’t mean I like Vereen more, because I don’t. But Gray seems like a weekly 70-yard guy who might score. … Don’t use Ben Tate this week, even if he finds a job. The Browns didn’t release him just because Crowell and Terrance West are better. Tate isn’t good. … What’s so special aboutJerick McKinnon? Even if he’s the starter, and he appears to be, he hasn’t scored a touchdown, he isn’t running wild, and the Packers weren’t run all over last week. … We all ranked the Raiders’ Latavius Murray, but nobody knows if he gets more than four rushing attempts. That franchise hasn’t a clue. He’s dangerous to trust as a flex option. It’s like we all want it so much, but the team doesn’t see it.

Wide receiver: I don’t buy the talk that Eagles QB Mark Sanchez “likes” Jordan Matthews more than Jeremy Maclin. There are plenty of targets to go around, and facing the Tennessee Titans, everyone should thrive. … Julio Jones last scored a touchdown in Week 3, so why do we all rank him as if he’s a sure thing? I’m guilty too. But Roddy White is a WR2 as well. … I think Denver’sEmmanuel Sanders passes his concussion tests and is worth being a WR2. But if he sits, Andre Caldwell would move up, not Wes Welker and certainly not the rookie Cody Latimer. … We’ve all under-ranked Kenny Stills. He’s been more productive than Marques Colston lately, and Brandin Cooks is out. Or perhaps the Saints will just not score much again. … Larry Fitzgerald is not only nursing a knee injury, but he also faces the Seahawks in their place. I’d try to avoid. … Cecil Shorts III is a better option. Watch the Jaguars have success Sunday.

Tight end: I finally stopped ranking the 49ers’ Vernon Davis. Perhaps it was because he’s scored nine fantasy points total the past 10 weeks. Talk about name value affecting rank. Drop the guy. … I don’t think Dwayne Allen plays, which is why the Coby Fleener rank is so positive. If the reports are good on the Titans’ Delanie Walker, however, I would switch them as TE1 choices. … I don’t like Kyle Rudolph’s chances of a big game against the rolling Packers. … If Julius Thomasdoes not play, I’d move Jacob Tamme to No. 12.
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
140,720
Tokens
[h=1]Backfield breakdown entering Week 12
in.gif
[/h]
By Eric Karabell | ESPN Insider
It’s hard to believe that entering the 2013 fantasy football season, then-Cleveland Browns and current Indianapolis Colts running back Trent Richardson was so highly regarded. This was actually a top-10 fantasy option, not a monumental disappointment desperate fantasy owners loathe activating into their lineups when forced due to lack of alternatives. Richardson, the No. 3 pick in the 2012 NFL draft, scored 12 touchdowns as a rookie, and many thought the Browns were crazy to trade him two games into his sophomore season. Now it doesn’t look so wild, but fantasy owners have a conundrum with Colts starter Ahmad Bradshaw suffering a broken leg Sunday night. Richardson will clearly see more volume, and that’s generally a good thing.

Of course, it’s also pertinent to introduce the name Daniel Herron to fantasy owners, you know, just in case Richardson continues to underwhelm. After all, New England Patriots running backJonas Gray exploded for 199 rushing yards and four touchdowns against the Colts Sunday, forcing many a fantasy owner to Google his name. And he’ll be a top pickup this week, and deservedly so. Things change quickly in the league. Who is Herron and why could he matter? Well, Richardson is averaging 3.4 yards per carry this season, coming off a 2013 season when it was a historically low 2.9 yards. He’s just not that good. Against the Patriots, Richardson was given seven rushing attempts, and he turned them into the same number of yards you and I achieved: zero.

Herron was selected in the same 2012 draft as Richardson, in the sixth round by the Cincinnati Bengals. The Ohio State product hasn’t received much opportunity at the highest level, earning 31 rushing attempts in his career, 22 of them this season, but that tells us nothing about his potential. The Colts probably don’t know what he could do with double-digit touches. But they know what Richardson can and cannot do. ESPN NFL Nation Colts reporter Mike Wells does outstanding work and he blogged about Richardson Monday, how there are simply no more excuses for him, and he’s right.

The revealing stat from the blog entry was this: The Colts have run 135 third-down plays, and Richardson was on the field for nine of them. It doesn’t mean Herron gets more, and perhaps no Colts running back is relevant now -- Bradshaw entered Week 11 as the No. 8 fantasy RB for the season -- but in a deep league, the unfortunate Bradshaw news doesn’t make me trade for Richardson. It doesn’t make me rank him in the top 20, either. It makes me see if I can stash Herron, the obvious handcuff in the ESPN Fantasy RB Chart, just in case. And by the way, there is no “stealth” option in Indy these days, but it wouldn’t be shocking if a free agent is signed and becomes a factor right away. Perhaps someone such as former Cleveland Browns starter Ben Tate, released Tuesday? Perhaps!

Other news: Tate’s surprising release would seem to add to the value of Isaiah Crowell, but neither he nor fellow rookie Terrance West is guaranteed anything. The Browns seem to change their mind each week. For now, the Browns, like the Colts and the Minnesota Vikings, have no option in the “stealth” section. … As for those Vikings, I tweeted earlier Tuesday that if you’ve waited months for Adrian Peterson to return from suspension, you might as well wait a few more days, but my ESPN colleagues have made it clear that even if the NFL ruling is overturned on appeal, it’s unlikely Peterson suits up for a game the rest of 2014. … As for other changes to the RB chart, the Atlanta Falcons have lost big-play option Antone Smith because of a broken leg, and he’s owned in more than 11 percent of leagues. Smith had his moments this season, that’s for sure, but rookie Devonta Freeman impressed Sunday and if Steven Jackson struggles, Freeman is next in line to get carries during Atlanta's friendly remaining schedule. … It appears the Cincinnati Bengals will get Giovani Bernard back this week, so he retains starter status over rookie Jeremy Hill, but the lines are pretty blurred at this point. … Montee Ball, considered a top-10 running back entering the season by some, leaves the RB chart after reinjuring his groin.Ronnie Hillman could return sooner. Juwan Thompson is the handcuff, and should see short-yardage work. In touchdown-heavy leagues, he becomes an option even if C.J. Andersoncontinues to start. … Watching Oakland Raiders veteran Darren McFadden plod his way into miserable fantasy numbers, I cannot understand why Latavius Murray hasn’t earned a decent opportunity. On Sunday, he ran four times for 43 yards. Perhaps Murray will be no more successful than McFadden or Maurice Jones-Drew, but why wouldn’t a winless Oakland team make sure? For perspective, I’d add Murray over Indy’s Herron just in case.

 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
140,720
Tokens
[h=1]Key stat trends entering Week 12[/h][h=3]Taking a closer look at players' QBR, red zone looks and total targets[/h]
By Ken Daube | Special to ESPN.com

It's extremely easy to evaluate the fantasy value of players such as Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski. For others, their value is relative to the opportunities they receive, where on the field they occur and the outcome of those chances. In an attempt to help you gauge values of players, here are some secondary statistics that will help you better evaluate their future value.[h=3]Quarterbacks[/h]Jay Cutler has a QBR of 59.0 but is averaging 17.5 fantasy points per game. Since 2008, quarterbacks who have a QBR between 56 and 62 average just 14.4 fantasy points per game. He has been lucky this year to have performed so well in fantasy and you should expect his fantasy production to return to the norm, which means his value needs to be lowered immediately.
Similarly, Kyle Orton's QBR is 38.7, but he's averaging 14.3 fantasy points per game. Since 2008, quarterbacks within three points of his QBR post just 11.0 fantasy points per game. Based on this, and a tougher schedule ahead of him, Orton is not even worth a roster spot in the deepest of leagues.
Ryan Tannehill's 16.3 fantasy points per game appear to make him startable in deeper leagues, but at 5.8 passing yards per dropback, he's better than only Derek Carr, Teddy Bridgewater andGeno Smith in that metric. The fact of the matter is that Tannehill only became useful once he started to run. In Weeks 4 through 9, he averaged 45 rushing yards per game. In his other five games, his rushing total is less than 7 yards per game. The four fantasy points per game that were derived from rushing yardage are what made him fantasy-worthy. Considering he only has 16 rushing yards over the past two games, he's a bench option only.
Brian Hoyer averages 7.12 yards per dropback, but has managed only 12.9 fantasy points per game. Among all quarterbacks with at least 7.0 yards per dropback, Hoyer's fantasy production is easily the worst. In fact, quarterbacks averaging between 6.0 and 7.0 yards per dropback are scoring 15.5 fantasy points per game and the three NFL quarterbacks who are right behind Hoyer in yards per dropback (Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees and Philip Rivers) average 17.5 fantasy points per game. Bearing in mind that Josh Gordon was just reinstated, Hoyer is significantly undervalued.
[h=3]Running backs[/h]Matt Forte has had six targets or more in all 10 of his games this season. The rest of NFL running backs have combined to manage just 76 other games with six or more targets. Because of his usage in the passing game, Forte is as safe as they come. If you are concerned about others scoring more touchdowns, don't be because Forte's usage as a receiver is extremely valuable.

If you have Frank Gore, you likely believe that Carlos Hyde's usage close to the goal line is a major reason why Gore hasn't scored as many touchdowns as you'd like. The fact is the San Francisco 49ers have had only six running back rush attempts inside the opponent's 5-yard line, with Hyde scoring on one of his four chances, and Gore being successful once during his two tries. Last season, the 49ers had 20 such attempts for the season. Look for more opportunities in this area of the field going forward, which is good for Gore.
Many analysts point to Marshawn Lynch's fantasy value being driven by touchdowns, which are somewhat unpredictable. For Lynch, those scores aren't unpredictable. After leading the NFL with 20 rushes inside the opponent's 5-yard line last season, he's is atop the leaderboard again this year. Last season, he converted 10 of his 22 rush attempts from that range into scores; this year he's been successful on five of 13 tries.
From Week 9 on, the only running backs with more rushes of 10 yards or more than Tre Mason are Marshawn Lynch, Jeremy Hill, Jamaal Charles and Le'Veon Bell. That's some nice company for Mason, who has taken such command of the power back role in the St. Louis Rams' backfield that Zac Stacy isn't even ownable in the deepest of fantasy leagues. While Mason won't catch many passes, he's a solid RB3 going forward.
Jonas Gray may have dominated the Indianapolis Colts for 201 rushing yards Sunday night, but he's definitely not worth starting against the Detroit Lions this week. Don't forget that in last season's playoffs, LeGarrette Blount rushed for 166 yards against the Colts and then managed just 6 yards on five carries against the Denver Broncos in the next game. Because only one player, Chris Ivory, has been able to rush for more than 60 yards against the Lions, starting Gray this week is a recipe for disaster.
[h=3]Wide receivers[/h]
Since the start of Week 3, only three NFL receivers have been targeted at least nine times in each game they have participated. The first two, Antonio Brownand Demaryius Thomas, probably won't surprise you; the third is Rueben Randle. While Odell Beckham Jr. is getting all the publicity, Randle is flying under the radar. Since Week 3, Randle ranks 48th in wide receiver scoring. That ranking is affected by him scoring only one touchdown over that span. If you compare him to other wide receivers with a similar number of receptions during that window (Nos. 41-49), you'll find that they have averaged four touchdowns during this period. If Randle had managed that average, he'd be 26th in WR scoring. He's undervalued and is a great waiver-wire addition.
Over the first six weeks of the season,DeAndre Hopkins was targeted just 5.5 times per game. Over the past five weeks, that number is up to 9.8. The result? During that later period, Hopkins is 21st in wide receiver scoring, despite having scored just one touchdown. As Ryan Mallett targeted Hopkins eight times Sunday, look for Hopkins to get better as the season goes on.
Since Week 5, there are only three receivers in the NFL taller than 6-foot-2 with at least three red zone targets who have not yet scored a touchdown in the red zone: Andre Johnson, Vincent Jackson and Larry Fitzgerald. Not coincidentally, all are generally considered as underperformers this season. Look for all three veterans to bounce back and become usable flex options.
Brandin Cooks averaged 6.6 targets per game this season and many people are projecting that other New Orleans Saints wide receivers such as Kenny Stills or Marques Colston will receive Cooks' opportunities now that the rookie is done for the year with a broken thumb. Unfortunately, nobody on the Saints' roster has been used in a similar fashion as Cooks this year. Both Stills and Colston have average depth of targets near the 12- to 13-yard mark, whereas Cooks' average depth was closer to 9 yards. What this means is that neither Stills nor Colston is the obvious replacement and while either or both may get more opportunities, they will come only if the Saints change their offensive game planning.
[h=3]Tight ends[/h]You have to wonder why Zach Ertz isn't utilized more in the receiving game. Since the start of 2001, no tight end has had a further depth of target than Ertz's 13.1 yards. With only one drop on the season and a reception rate of almost 64 percent, Ertz's measurables align with the elite in the league. He's not getting enough targets to be a fantasy starter, but is still a good bet to emerge in future seasons.
Much was made of Travis Kelce finally getting a chance to be a full-time player with Anthony Fasano out for last Sunday's game versus the Seattle Seahawks. Kelce drew just five targets despite playing on 44 of 46 offensive snaps for the Kansas City Chiefs. Look for Kelce to remain a low-end starting option, with decent upside.
Kyle Rudolph returned for the Minnesota Vikings but played only 13 snaps. Look for Rudolph to become a more reliable option over the next couple of weeks as he had averaged just under six targets per game before getting hurt earlier this season.
Finally, for those of you that love the target data and red zone play statistics, you can find them below:
[h=3]Targets Report (Past four weeks):[/h]Note: Targets are not an official NFL statistic. Based on the methodology that stat services use, the number of targets listed may be different than target values listed elsewhere. The philosophy of ESPN Stats & Information is to count a target when the analyst thinks the pass was actually intended for the player. Therefore, if a quarterback is obviously throwing a ball away, the analyst will not record a target for that pass. This gives a truer representation of what a target is -- i.e., a pass thrown to a particular player with the intent for that player to catch the ball -- and therefore should be more helpful to the fantasy community.
PlayerTargets/GameDepth/TargetRoutes/Game
Calvin Johnson13.516.737
Alshon Jeffery12.31140.7
Antonio Brown129.333.3
Demaryius Thomas129.746.3
Rueben Randle1212.547.7
Keenan Allen11.37.735.7
Odell Beckham10.713.549.3
Jeremy Maclin10.311.239.8
Emmanuel Sanders10.312.240.3
DeAndre Hopkins1014.332.3
Reggie Wayne1011.539
Brandon Marshall9.711.738.3
Andrew Hawkins9.710.228.7
Andre Johnson9.79.132.7
Golden Tate9.310.240.7
Brandon LaFell9.311.935.3
Julio Jones9.37.932
Anquan Boldin9.310.332.3
Allen Robinson9.312.436.3
Kelvin Benjamin914.631.5
Mike Evans8.81932.3
Randall Cobb8.710.236
Vincent Jackson8.513.434.8
Eric Decker8.36.934.7
Percy Harvin8.37.726.3
A.J. Green8.312.927.3
Michael Crabtree8.312.730
Dez Bryant8.38.833
Jordan Matthews8.310.235.3
John Brown8.312.528.5
Rob Gronkowski89.229.3
Dwayne Bowe88.526.3
Roddy White89.333.7
Mychal Rivera7.87.437
James Jones7.86.733.8
Steve Smith7.710.733
Larry Fitzgerald7.59.737
Mohamed Sanu7.512.830.3
Jason Witten7.38.329.7
Julian Edelman7.35.332
T.Y. Hilton7.314.242.3
Sammy Watkins7.315.536.3
Jimmy Graham7.37.832.5
Doug Baldwin7.37.328.8
Taylor Gabriel713.924.5
Mike Wallace717.933.3
Theo Riddick72.714
Cecil Shorts77.833.7
Coby Fleener712.626.3
Delanie Walker77.728
Rashad Jennings7-3.734

<thead style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</thead><tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</tbody>


[h=4]Red Zone Breakdown[/h]
TeamSnapsPass %Rush %
Miami Dolphins12748%52%
Indianapolis Colts11459%41%
Pittsburgh Steelers10763%37%
New Orleans Saints10651%49%
New England Patriots10647%53%
Seattle Seahawks10542%58%
Green Bay Packers10562%38%
New York Giants10057%43%
Baltimore Ravens9646%54%
New York Jets9454%46%
Cleveland Browns9335%65%
Denver Broncos9168%32%
Buffalo Bills9155%45%
Philadelphia Eagles9057%43%
Kansas City Chiefs9049%51%
Cincinnati Bengals8638%62%
Detroit Lions8553%47%
Chicago Bears8567%33%
Carolina Panthers8043%58%
San Diego Chargers7957%43%
Arizona Cardinals7758%42%
Washington Redskins7647%53%
San Francisco 49ers7341%59%
Tennessee Titans6859%41%
St. Louis Rams6849%51%
Dallas Cowboys6659%41%
Houston Texans6549%51%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers6455%45%
Minnesota Vikings6452%48%
Atlanta Falcons5452%48%
Jacksonville Jaguars4852%48%
Oakland Raiders4163%37%

<thead style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</thead><tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</tbody>



 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
140,720
Tokens
[h=1]32 fantasy tips to win in Week 12[/h][h=3]How to value Jonas Gray, Coby Fleener and others in the weeks ahead[/h]
By Mike Clay | Pro Football Focus

Below are 32 notes covering each of the league's 32 teams. Use these tidbits to make the best waiver-wire, trade and lineup decisions this week. Be sure to check back each week of the season for a new version of the Fantasy 32.
(Note: I've written at length about opportunity-adjusted touchdowns (OTD) in the past. If you're new to the stat, be sure to check out our introduction to rushing and receiving OTD. The OTD metric weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity.)
1. Jonas Gray scored four rushing touchdowns in Week 11, which nearly matched the six rushing TDs scored by the rest of the NFL. You read that correctly; a total of 10 rushing touchdowns were scored across the league this week, and Gray had 40 percent of them. Per the Elias Sports Bureau, it's the fewest scored in a single week since Week 3 of the 1993 season, and ties for the fewest since the merger in 1970. Sliding into Stevan Ridley's role in New England's surging offense, Gray paced the league with 38 carries. He scored on four of five attempts within 4 yards of the end zone, and added eight additional red zone carries. There will be a mad scramble for Gray on waivers this week, but don't go nuts. We just witnessed the best game of Gray's career, and he's still involved in a two-headed attack in New England. Uninvolved as a receiver (zero career receptions), Gray is a borderline RB2, especially with a tough Detroit Lions defense on tap this week.


2. Vincent Jackson, Rueben Randle and Andre Johnson currently sit seventh, 11th and 12th, respectively, in the league in targets. They rank 42nd, 49th and 43rd, respectively, in fantasy points. Why? They're not finding the end zone. The trio has combined for five scores this season. Jackson has racked up a healthy 12 end zone targets, but has caught two (or 17 percent). He was 5-of-12 (42 percent) in the area last season. Randle is 2-of-11 (18 percent) after entering the season 5-of-12 (42 percent) in his career. Johnson always struggles in the touchdown department and his 1-of-8 (13 percent) conversion rate on end zone targets isn't helping the cause this season. Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Jr. and DeAndre Hopkins are emerging behind each of these three "veteran" wideouts, but don't overlook the value of goal-line targets.


3. Kelvin Benjamin and Brandon Marshall have each seen a league-high 17 end zone targets this season. Six of Benjamin's eight touchdowns and seven of Marshall's eight scores have come on end zone looks. Carolina's offense has struggled, but Benjamin sits eighth in fantasy points among wide receivers thanks to the massive usage at the goal line. Marshall has produced below expectations this season, but he's averaging 27 percent of Chicago's targets in his past five games. That's up from 19 percent during the first five games of the season. Marshall and A.J. Green led the league in end zone targets in 2013. Going forward, Marshall is a WR1 and Benjamin is a strong WR2.


4. Martavis Bryant's 20.6 average depth of target (aDOT) is tops among wide receivers who have seen at least 25 targets this season. He's followed by Travis Benjamin (20.3), Michael Floyd (20.0), Malcom Floyd (19.4), Kenny Britt (18.0), Justin Hunter (17.7), Torrey Smith (17.5), Calvin Johnson (17.5), Mike Evans (17.4) and Terrance Williams (17.4). These 10 wide receivers have combined for a 55 percent catch rate, 17.2 yards per reception (YPR) and 44 touchdowns (or one every 11 targets).


5. On the other hand, Percy Harvin's 3.4 average depth of target (aDOT) is lowest among wide receivers who have seen at least 25 targets this season. He's followed by Jarvis Landry (5.5), Tavon Austin (5.6), Wes Welker (6.2), Damaris Johnson (7.0), Julian Edelman (8.3), Robert Woods (8.4), Brandin Cooks (8.5), Golden Tate (8.6) and Cecil Shorts III (8.8). These 10 wideouts have combined for a 72 percent catch rate, 10.6 YPR and 16 scores (or one every 33 targets).


Comparing our past two capsules, it's clear that high aDOT players are going to provide more volatile results, but are significantly more likely to find the end zone. Low aDOT players have added value in PPR formats, but the boost in targets is usually not enough to offset a dramatic dip in scoring. When looking for a desperation replacement at wide receiver, grab a player with a high aDOT, as his odds of scoring a long touchdown are much higher than his counterparts.


6. With Dwayne Allen sidelined with an ankle sprain, Coby Fleener takes over as the Indianapolis Colts' top tight end. Fleener may seem like an underwhelming fantasy option, but keep in mind that both he and Allen are currently in the top 12 in fantasy points among tight ends this season. With Allen out nearly all of last season, Fleener finished 14th at the position, but the Colts' offense wasn't producing at near the level it is in 2014. Fleener is a mid-pack TE1 option as long as Allen is sidelined.

7. Josh Gordon will return to the Cleveland Browns' lineup this week, which is great news for those who have been stashing him, but terrible news for owners of Andrew Hawkins. With Gordon likely to take on roughly 30 percent of the team's targets (he averaged 27 percent in a pass-heavy offense last season), Hawkins is guaranteed to see a large dip in usage. Cleveland's slot man will primarily work underneath, which means big plays and, more important, touchdowns will elude him. Expect WR5 numbers down the stretch.


8. With Julius Thomas (ankle) and Emmanuel Sanders (concussion) dicey for the Denver Broncos' Week 12 game against Miami, both Jacob Tamme and Cody Latimer should be on your waiver-wire radar. Filling in for Thomas on Sunday, Tamme racked up 10 targets. He caught four for 31 yards, and it's safe to assume his efficiency will improve with Peyton Manning under center. Tamme caught 85 percent of his targets last season. Latimer was inactive Sunday, but should Sanders sit out, the rookie would, at worst, be in position to compete with Andre Caldwell for reps opposite Demaryius Thomas. The sure-handed Latimer has a massive ceiling, especially in Denver's offense.


9. Ahmad Bradshaw appears done for the regular season because of a broken ankle. That leaves underperforming Trent Richardson as the Colts' clear lead back. Richardson has struggled to 3.4 yards per carry this season (which is actually an improvement from his 3.0 mark in 2013), but there is some reason for optimism here. The Colts throw the ball a ton, but they often lead in the second half, which has allowed them to average just under 25 called run plays per game. With only Dan Herron on his heels, Richardson has a clear path to a healthy chunk of those carries. Add a few targets and goal-line work in one of the league's top-scoring offenses and you have a borderline RB2 option at your disposal.


10. With Brandin Cooks expected to miss several weeks, Kenny Stills steps into the New Orleans Saints' starting lineup. Although he's absolutely worth your attention on waivers, be sure to keep expectations in check. Sean Payton is known for his running-back-by-committee approach, and he does the same thing at wideout. Cooks has seen a wide receiver-high 17 percent of the Saints' targets this season, but that's a fairly low number for a team's No. 1 wideout. Marques Colston led the position in the category last season at 18 percent, in 2012, 2010 and 2009 at 20 percent and in 2011 at 17 percent. Assuming Stills and Colston sit in the 18-to-20 percent range the rest of the way, they will produce WR3 numbers.


11. Latavius Murray was on the field for 27 of the Oakland Raiders' final 30 plays Sunday. Usually this kind of thing happens in garbage time, but that wasn't the case here. The Raiders kept this one close throughout, turning to Murray after more ineffective play from veterans Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew. It's conceivable that Murray will lead the Oakland backfield in touches going forward. The Raiders have a miserable two rushing touchdowns on the year, but the 23-year-old Murray has a dangerous combination of size (6-foot-3, 225 pounds) and speed (4.3 in the 40-yard dash). I'll be going after Murray harder than I will Gray on waivers this week.


12. After seeing 174 targets last season, Pierre Garcon is on pace for 99 this season. Without DeSean Jackson and Andre Roberts in the mix, Garcon handled 30 percent of Washington's targets and led the NFL with 113 receptions last season. This year, he sits at 19 percent of the targets, and may not crack 70 catches. Garcon is a nothing more than a WR4.


13. Jordan Matthews has seen the following percentage of the Philadelphia Eagles' targets during the team's past six games: 19, 19, 19, 13, 25, 19. That's some incredibly consistent usage (even the 13 and 25 percent weeks average out to 19 percent). Although 19 percent is a healthy number, his lowly 8.8 aDOT and 3.2 OTD suggest that he's extremely unlikely to keep up this touchdown pace. Matthews has six touchdowns despite seeing only six end zone targets. The rookie is a borderline WR3 option going forward.


14. Tailbacks score a hefty 44 percent of the time on carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line. Here are your leaders in carries from that distance this season:


• 13: Mark Ingram
• 12: Marshawn Lynch
• 9: Chris Ivory, Lamar Miller
• 8: Giovani Bernard, Jeremy Hill, Knile Davis
• 7: Shane Vereen, Rashad Jennings, Alfred Morris, Ben Tate


15. An end zone target is hauled in for a touchdown 38 percent of the time. So far in 2014, your leaders in the category are as follows:


• 17: Brandon Marshall, Kelvin Benjamin
• 15: Antonio Gates, Jordy Nelson
• 13: Randall Cobb
• 12: Antonio Brown, Vincent Jackson
• 11: Charles Clay, Rueben Randle, Steve Smith, Alshon Jeffery
16. Returning from a knee injury that cost him seven games, Ryan Mathews paced the San Diego Chargers backfield with 31 snaps Sunday. Mathews carried the ball 16 times and was on the field for 13 pass plays. Settling into a complementary role, rookie Branden Oliver carried the ball on 13 of his 20 snaps. Surprisingly, Donald Brown was the primary passing-down back. San Diego called pass on all but one of his 17 snaps. Mathews will play enough to warrant RB2 consideration, but it appears Oliver and Brown will share reps behind him. Both are off the flex radar.


17. Andre Johnson (33 percent), Dez Bryant (31 percent) and Antonio Brown (30 percent) are the only players who have handled at least 30 percent of their respective team's targets this season. As noted earlier, Johnson's touchdown deficiencies have crushed his fantasy value. Bryant's production hasn't dropped off in Scott Linehan's offense despite the team's new-found reliance on its running game. Brown leads the league in targets, receptions and receiving yards, and is easily tops in fantasy points among wide receivers. Bye weeks aside, Johnson, Bryant and Brown should never leave your starting lineup.


18. Charles Clay currently sits 19th among tight ends in fantasy points, but there's reason to believe he'll be much stronger down the stretch. Last season, Clay scored seven times en route to finishing as fantasy's No. 7 tight end. He caught two of four end zone targets. This year, he's scored twice, but there's a major uptick in usage near the goal line as of late. Clay is 2-of-12 in converting end zone looks, a mark that is very likely to improve. Handling just over 20 percent of Miami's targets over the team's past three games, Clay is back in the TE1 mix.


19. Doug Baldwin paced the league in receiving OTD this past week. Seattle's primary slot receiver was targeted twice while inside the friendly confines of the end zone. He caught one for a touchdown. Jermaine Kearse will remain Russell Wilson's favorite target near the goal line, but Baldwin has seen a generous 27 percent of the team's targets since Percy Harvin was traded prior to Week 7. That's enough work to keep him in the WR3 mix going forward.


20. Michael Floyd finally took advantage of all the deep shots he's been seeing, scoring twice in Week 11. Keep in mind, however, that Floyd was targeted only five times total and scored on both of his receptions. The five targets are just below his 5.4 average this season. A few weeks ago, I suggested Floyd would be a high-risk, high-reward play going forward. That's still the case. Arizona heads to Seattle this week, which means Floyd should be on your bench.


21. After missing Weeks 1-10 with a collarbone injury, Marquess Wilson stepped right in as Chicago's No. 3 wide receiver and played 55 snaps in his season debut. Wilson was targeted four times and ran seven fewer routes than both Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. Wilson is far from a safe weekly start, but he's one of the rare wide receiver handcuffs worth stashing. Should Marshall or Jeffery go down, Wilson would immediately enter the WR3 discussion. He should be rostered in all dynasty leagues.


22. Regret not starting Jermaine Gresham this past Sunday? You shouldn't. Gresham scored twice, but totaled two targets on the day. Averaging fewer than five targets per game in an offense that has 12 passing scores in 11 games, Gresham is nothing more than a mid-pack TE2 option.


23. Mike Tolbert is set to return to the Carolina Panthers' lineup following the club's Week 12 bye. This is bad news for DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, who were already eating at each other's fantasy value with Tolbert not in the picture. With all three backs healthy in Week 1, Williams paced the unit in carries (14), but wasn't targeted. Tolbert was tops in snaps (32), managed seven carries and saw four targets. Stewart played two dozen snaps, carried the ball nine times and saw a trio of targets. There are no safe RB2 plays in this offense.


24. With Arian Foster out because of a hamstring injury, Alfred Blue picked up right where he left off. The rookie handled 69 percent of the Houston Texans' carries, which was just above Foster's 68 percent season average. Houston held a huge lead throughout and ran a season-high 84 offensive plays. This allowed Blue a massive 37 attempts and 156 yards. Foster is expected back this week, but Blue remains a strong short-term stash and long-term dynasty hold.


25. The Lions defense has been exceptional this season, which makes one wonder how dominant this team would be had its offense not fallen off a cliff. After averaging 3.2 offensive touchdowns per game in 2011, 2.4 in 2012 and 2.8 in 2013, the Lions sit at 1.9 this season. That's the eighth-lowest mark in the league. Matthew Stafford has yet to eclipse two passing touchdowns in a game and Joique Bell is the team's sole running back with more than one rushing touchdown. Calvin Johnson is a must-start every week, but Stafford, Bell, Reggie Bush and Golden Tate are borderline starters at best.


26. Veteran in-line tight end Anthony Fasano was out this week, which allowed Travis Kelce to work a season-high 96 percent of Kansas City's snaps. The uptick in workload led to only four targets, but keep in mind that the Chiefs had to call pass only 16 times in the game. The Chiefs are 5-0 since their Week 6 bye, but they have a 3-10 pass-to-run touchdown ratio during the streak. This has obviously limited Kelce's fantasy ceiling, but note that he still sits 10th in fantasy points among tight ends this season. He remains on the TE1 radar.


27. Charles Johnson is a name to keep an eye on in deeper leagues. Following an injury to Vikings No. 3 wide receiver Jarius Wright, Johnson filled in with a team-high seven targets, six receptions and 87 yards. A seventh-round pick last season, Johnson checks in at 6-2, 215 pounds and has 4.38 wheels. With the Vikings' passing game struggling badly, Johnson figures to play more and more as the season progresses. He's a logical deep stash in dynasty leagues.


28. During the past eight weeks, offenses have distributed a league-high 27 percent of their targets to the tight end position when facing the 49ers. San Francisco has done a pretty nice job defensively, but this provides a boost, especially in PPR, for the likes of Jordan Reed, Luke Willson and surging Mychal Rivera, who will all face off with San Francisco over the next three weeks. Offenses have scored 83 percent of their touchdowns against the 49ers through the air, which is the league's fourth-highest mark.
29. After totaling 15 touchdowns in its first four games, the Falcons' offense has 10 scores in its past six. Matt Ryan has thrown for more than one touchdown in a game only once over his past six games. That stretch of the schedule included games against the Giants, Buccaneers and Panthers. This is obviously an offense that is struggling badly. Ryan's fantasy ceiling is much lower than expected, but he will maintain borderline QB1 value as long as Atlanta continues to lean heavily on its passing game. Julio Jones and Roddy White see enough volume to warrant WR1 and WR2 consideration, respectively.
30. The Buffalo Bills lost in prime time Thursday night, but this is a defense that you should continue to fear when setting your lineup. In 10 games, eight of Buffalo's opponents have scored below their season average in the touchdown department. The two exceptions were division rivals New York and New England. The Buffalo defense has been tough against both the pass and run, and is allowing 1.9 touchdowns per game, which is the league's fourth-lowest mark. The Bills host the Jets and Browns over the next two weeks.
31. The Raiders' wide receiver merry-go-round spins on. After sitting out the previous game,Kenbrell Thompkins started in Week 11 and tied Andre Holmes for the team lead in pass routes.James Jones, who had been the club's clear No. 1 wideout since Rod Streater went down back in Week 3, was third in line at wide receiver. He was targeted four times, his lowest total since Week 3. Brice Butler played 15 snaps Sunday. Denarius Moore and Vincent Brown (inactive) did not play. There are no safe weekly plays here. Holmes is the only worthwhile stash in deeper leagues.
32. The Titans and Jaguars are struggling this season, but don't automatically assume this means they provide an easy matchup for your quarterback. The Titans have allowed fewer than two passing scores in all but two of their games. They allowed four to Andrew Luck, three toBrian Hoyer and a total of eight in their eight other games. The Jaguars, meanwhile, allowed 10 combined passing touchdowns to Luck, Philip Rivers and Tony Romo, but a total of eight in their seven other games. Tennessee heads to Philadelphia and Houston for its next two affairs, while Jacksonville takes on Indianapolis and the New York Giants.
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
140,720
Tokens
[h=1]Consistency Ratings: Week 12[/h]
By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

[h=3]How Consistency Ratings Work[/h]Using fantasy points determined by ESPN standard scoring, the charts contained in this column rate players based on how consistently reliable they have been during the 2014 NFL season. For individual defensive players, the following scoring is used: solo tackle (1), assisted tackle (0.5), sack (3), interception (3), forced fumble (3), fumble recovery (3), touchdown (6), safety (2), pass defended (1). For Consistency Ratings from the 2012 to 2014 seasons combined, click here.
Here are explanations for some of the column headers and terminology used in the charts below:
CR: The player's Consistency Rating, which is calculated as his weekly standard deviation divided by his fantasy points per game average. This is meant to identify the players who were most consistently close to their weekly averages. The lower the number, the more consistent the player. Again, lower numbers are better.
Start%: The player's Start Percentage, which shows how often he earned your start in an ESPN standard league. This is his number of Starts -- defined below -- divided by his number of scheduled team games.
PPR: The player's Start Percentage using PPR scoring, which uses ESPN standard scoring settings but adds one point per reception.
FPTS/G: The player's average fantasy points scored per game.
Start: The number of times that the player's point total in a given week was worthy of having had him active in an ESPN standard league.
Stud: The number of times the player's point total ranked among the top at his position.
Stiff: The number of times the player's point total ranked among the worst at his position, making almost any waiver-wire option a smarter choice.
These are the benchmarks for what constitutes a Start, Stud or Stiff performance:
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;"></center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">QB</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">RB</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">WR</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">TE</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">K</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">D/ST</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">DL</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">LB</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">DB</center>
StartTop 10Top 25Top 25Top 10Top 10Top 10Top 20Top 20Top 20
StudTop 2Top 5Top 5Top 2Top 2Top 2Top 4Top 4Top 4
Stiff21st+51st+51st+21st+21st+21st+41st+41st+41st+

<thead style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</thead><tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</tbody>


Sat: The number of times the player missed a game. Players are not charged Stiff points for sitting out nor does it impact their Consistency Rating , but it hurts their Start Percentage.
Players must have at least a 20 percent Start Percentage in either standard scoring or PPR leagues for inclusion in the chart. All defense/special teams are included, regardless of whether they met those minimums.
Quick click by position: Quarterbacks | Running backs | Wide receivers
Tight ends | Kickers | Team defense/special teams
Defensive linemen | Linebackers | Defensive backs

[h=3]Quarterbacks[/h]
Player<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Team</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">CR</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Start%</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">PPR</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">FPTS/G</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Start</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Stud</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Stiff</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Sat</center>
Drew BreesNO0.17050.0%50.0%17.65000
Andrew LuckInd0.205100.0%100.0%24.010300
Peyton ManningDen0.21090.0%90.0%23.19300
Carson PalmerAri0.30430.0%30.0%16.83014
Tony RomoDal0.31240.0%40.0%16.34031
Ryan TannehillMia0.33730.0%30.0%16.33010
Ryan FitzpatrickHou0.34230.0%30.0%13.13021
Jay CutlerChi0.34560.0%60.0%17.56220
Colin KaepernickSF0.34830.0%30.0%15.43040
Aaron RodgersGB0.36680.0%80.0%22.98320
Matt RyanAtl0.39120.0%20.0%16.12130
Alex SmithKC0.39530.0%30.0%12.83040
Russell WilsonSea0.46170.0%70.0%19.77230
Cam NewtonCar0.50727.3%27.3%14.83121
Philip RiversSD0.52650.0%50.0%16.85030
Nick FolesPhi0.52830.0%30.0%14.13032
Tom BradyNE0.54950.0%50.0%18.25140
Matthew StaffordDet0.55030.0%30.0%14.83140
Andy DaltonCin0.55120.0%20.0%13.42030
Joe FlaccoBal0.56430.0%30.0%14.93130
Eli ManningNYG0.56630.0%30.0%15.13130
Josh McCownTB0.58730.0%30.0%13.63015
Drew StantonAri0.62220.0%20.0%10.22035
Ben RoethlisbergerPit0.63127.3%27.3%18.23240
Austin DavisStL0.65220.0%20.0%11.62061
Kirk CousinsWsh0.67230.0%30.0%14.33124

<thead style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</thead><tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</tbody>


[h=3]Running backs[/h]
Player<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Team</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">CR</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Start%</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">PPR</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">FPTS/G</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Start</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Stud</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Stiff</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Sat</center>
DeMarco MurrayDal0.272100.0%100.0%17.510700
Justin ForsettBal0.44380.0%90.0%11.78100
Ryan MathewsSD0.45120.0%20.0%8.02007
Lamar MillerMia0.46180.0%80.0%9.88100
Le'Veon BellPit0.46490.9%100.0%14.210300
Matt ForteChi0.50380.0%90.0%15.88500
Joique BellDet0.51050.0%60.0%8.15001
Mark IngramNO0.51260.0%60.0%14.96303
Arian FosterHou0.51670.0%80.0%19.37402
Roy HeluWsh0.51630.0%40.0%5.53000
Tre MasonStL0.53240.0%30.0%7.74004
Jonathan StewartCar0.53927.3%27.3%6.33013
LeSean McCoyPhi0.54470.0%70.0%8.57020
Andre EllingtonAri0.55980.0%90.0%11.68100
Storm JohnsonJac0.56720.0%0.0%5.72017
Ahmad BradshawInd0.57270.0%80.0%10.87210
Darren McFaddenOak0.59050.0%50.0%5.95010
Fred JacksonBuf0.59040.0%40.0%7.64002
Alfred MorrisWsh0.60160.0%50.0%11.06210
Trent RichardsonInd0.60630.0%40.0%7.03001
Giovani BernardCin0.61460.0%50.0%12.46213
Bishop SankeyTen0.63320.0%30.0%5.22030
Marshawn LynchSea0.65170.0%70.0%17.17400
Steven JacksonAtl0.66440.0%40.0%7.24000
Chris IvoryNYJ0.66760.0%60.0%8.96010
Jamaal CharlesKC0.67170.0%60.0%14.67421
Eddie LacyGB0.68860.0%60.0%11.86310
Bryce BrownBuf0.68920.0%20.0%4.72017
Benny CunninghamStL0.69040.0%40.0%5.64020
Rashad JenningsNYG0.70230.0%40.0%10.33104
Darren SprolesPhi0.71440.0%40.0%9.14101
Bobby RaineyTB0.77230.0%60.0%6.53020
Frank GoreSF0.79350.0%50.0%8.35110
C.J. SpillerBuf0.79430.0%30.0%6.13023
Terrance WestCle0.80350.0%40.0%7.15011
Ronnie HillmanDen0.81040.0%40.0%9.74113
Shane VereenNE0.82650.0%60.0%7.95110
Khiry RobinsonNO0.82820.0%20.0%6.32024
Jerick McKinnonMin0.85460.0%50.0%5.56030
Ben TateFA0.86340.0%30.0%7.44112
Reggie BushDet0.88010.0%20.0%5.11013
Isaiah CrowellCle0.89950.0%50.0%6.15040
Jeremy HillCin0.90250.0%40.0%9.15220
Andre WilliamsNYG0.90740.0%40.0%5.64040
Bernard PierceBal0.95730.0%0.0%4.43023
Zac StacyStL0.97220.0%20.0%4.52022
Stevan RidleyNE0.98220.0%20.0%7.32014
Chris JohnsonNYJ0.98940.0%40.0%5.04040
Antone SmithAtl1.00650.0%40.0%6.05050
Carlos HydeSF1.01420.0%20.0%3.82040
Alfred BlueHou1.02630.0%20.0%4.63040
Travaris CadetNO1.04610.0%20.0%2.31030
Pierre ThomasNO1.05220.0%30.0%7.72124
Denard RobinsonJac1.05940.0%40.0%7.14230
Branden OliverSD1.14330.0%40.0%8.63122
Knile DavisKC1.15250.0%50.0%7.35240
Matt AsiataMin1.18730.0%30.0%8.43220
Montee BallDen1.23610.0%20.0%4.61035
Theo RiddickDet1.29820.0%20.0%4.42042
Lorenzo TaliaferroBal1.31330.0%30.0%5.23040
Jonas GrayNE1.43420.0%10.0%13.82116
C.J. AndersonDen1.60220.0%20.0%4.62151
Juwan ThompsonDen1.70220.0%10.0%2.72060
Stepfan TaylorAri1.90910.0%20.0%3.31062

<thead style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</thead><tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</tbody>


[h=3]Wide receivers[/h]
Player<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Team</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">CR</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Start%</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">PPR</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">FPTS/G</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Start</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Stud</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Stiff</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Sat</center>
Mike WallaceMia0.37750.0%50.0%8.65010
Randall CobbGB0.44990.0%70.0%13.29310
Antonio BrownPit0.46481.8%90.9%15.39500
DeAndre HopkinsHou0.47160.0%60.0%9.46010
Odell Beckham Jr.NYG0.47750.0%50.0%10.55014
Dwayne BoweKC0.49610.0%20.0%5.31021
Dez BryantDal0.52870.0%50.0%12.37200
Emmanuel SandersDen0.54480.0%80.0%13.48110
Malcom FloydSD0.55030.0%20.0%7.83010
Roddy WhiteAtl0.56250.0%50.0%9.35021
Vincent JacksonTB0.56210.0%30.0%6.41020
Andre JohnsonHou0.56730.0%20.0%6.03020
Jordy NelsonGB0.57170.0%80.0%14.87320
Alshon JefferyChi0.57760.0%60.0%9.66110
Eric DeckerNYJ0.59140.0%40.0%7.24021
Kelvin BenjaminCar0.59463.6%63.6%10.67220
Anquan BoldinSF0.59640.0%40.0%8.34020
Marques ColstonNO0.60020.0%10.0%5.42010
Martavis BryantPit0.60136.4%27.3%13.44116
Rueben RandleNYG0.61330.0%50.0%5.83020
Mohamed SanuCin0.61950.0%50.0%9.85220
Miles AustinCle0.62520.0%20.0%5.02040
Golden TateDet0.64160.0%50.0%10.96320
Allen RobinsonJac0.64630.0%20.0%6.53020
Cecil ShortsJac0.67810.0%20.0%5.61023
Demaryius ThomasDen0.68580.0%80.0%14.48320
Greg JenningsMin0.68820.0%30.0%5.42040
Julio JonesAtl0.69050.0%60.0%10.15100
Andrew HawkinsCle0.69140.0%60.0%7.64021
Jeremy MaclinPhi0.70070.0%70.0%14.07310
Reggie WayneInd0.70540.0%50.0%7.44031
Steve JohnsonSF0.71020.0%20.0%5.42030
T.Y. HiltonInd0.71260.0%60.0%11.16220
A.J. GreenCin0.71250.0%50.0%10.15223
Percy HarvinNYJ0.71430.0%20.0%5.53032
James JonesOak0.72530.0%20.0%6.23050
Julian EdelmanNE0.73530.0%50.0%8.13140
Michael CrabtreeSF0.75830.0%30.0%7.13030
Mike EvansTB0.77250.0%40.0%12.95221
Brandon MarshallChi0.77950.0%50.0%10.05230
Terrance WilliamsDal0.78130.0%20.0%7.53030
Keenan AllenSD0.79620.0%30.0%5.42040
DeSean JacksonWsh0.79950.0%50.0%10.05240
Torrey SmithBal0.79950.0%40.0%7.85040
Brandin CooksNO0.80130.0%50.0%8.03120
Taylor GabrielCle0.81030.0%30.0%5.53040
Kenny StillsNO0.82820.0%10.0%5.72041
Kendall WrightTen0.83830.0%30.0%6.93140
Markus WheatonPit0.87027.3%18.2%4.83050
Doug BaldwinSea0.87220.0%20.0%5.72140
John BrownAri0.88530.0%30.0%7.23150
Steve SmithBal0.90650.0%50.0%9.05230
Brian QuickStL0.90840.0%30.0%7.64133
Jarvis LandryMia0.91420.0%20.0%4.72060
Larry FitzgeraldAri0.92930.0%30.0%7.33140
Brandon LaFellNE0.93140.0%40.0%8.44140
Jordan MatthewsPhi0.94540.0%40.0%8.64240
Michael FloydAri0.95040.0%40.0%6.44040
Victor CruzNYG0.95320.0%20.0%6.22034
Sammy WatkinsBuf0.95730.0%40.0%9.03350
Justin HunterTen0.96120.0%10.0%4.82050
Kenny BrittStL0.98820.0%20.0%5.82140
Calvin JohnsonDet1.03230.0%30.0%9.63123
Hakeem NicksInd1.06620.0%10.0%3.72060
Eddie RoyalSD1.07220.0%30.0%6.72150
Pierre GarconWsh1.07920.0%30.0%5.92150
Cordarrelle PattersonMin1.08720.0%20.0%5.02150
Louis MurphyTB1.09220.0%20.0%4.92043
Travis BenjaminCle1.15520.0%10.0%4.32060
Robert WoodsBuf1.22120.0%20.0%4.32060
Allen HurnsJac1.26130.0%20.0%7.23250
Chris HoganBuf1.27820.0%20.0%3.62070
Andre HolmesOak1.28330.0%30.0%6.13160
Devin HesterAtl1.36030.0%20.0%4.43070

<thead style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</thead><tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</tbody>


[h=3]Tight ends[/h]
Player<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Team</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">CR</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Start%</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">PPR</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">FPTS/G</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Start</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Stud</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Stiff</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Sat</center>
Dwayne AllenInd0.60470.0%60.0%7.57030
Greg OlsenCar0.61263.6%72.7%8.97220
Jason WittenDal0.63030.0%50.0%5.73040
Rob GronkowskiNE0.64480.0%80.0%12.48310
Martellus BennettChi0.65850.0%50.0%8.65120
Travis KelceKC0.73050.0%40.0%6.45130
Coby FleenerInd0.77040.0%30.0%6.44130
Delanie WalkerTen0.77440.0%30.0%7.84021
Jimmy GrahamNO0.77860.0%60.0%9.76220
Julius ThomasDen0.81960.0%50.0%11.06430
Owen DanielsBal0.82730.0%30.0%5.43041
Lance KendricksStL0.87430.0%10.0%3.73050
Jared CookStL0.87710.0%20.0%4.61040
Antonio GatesSD0.88460.0%50.0%9.86420
Charles ClayMia0.91820.0%40.0%4.32060
Zach ErtzPhi0.92030.0%30.0%4.73050
Larry DonnellNYG1.00140.0%60.0%7.04130
Scott ChandlerBuf1.05010.0%20.0%3.31060
Jace AmaroNYJ1.05720.0%10.0%3.62050
Jermaine GreshamCin1.07110.0%30.0%3.51150
Niles PaulWsh1.08710.0%20.0%4.21050
Heath MillerPit1.11727.3%27.3%5.03150
Daniel FellsNYG1.12220.0%0.0%3.12060
Mychal RiveraOak1.14730.0%30.0%4.63160
Clay HarborJac1.15810.0%20.0%4.41033
Andrew QuarlessGB1.16320.0%20.0%3.12060
Chase FordMin1.19710.0%20.0%3.61043
Timothy WrightNE1.28330.0%20.0%4.13060

<thead style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</thead><tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</tbody>


[h=3]Kickers[/h]
Player<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Team</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">CR</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Start%</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">PPR</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">FPTS/G</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Start</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Stud</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Stiff</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Sat</center>
Matt PraterDet0.30620.0%20.0%7.82005
Steven HauschkaSea0.30750.0%50.0%8.85010
Cody ParkeyPhi0.32370.0%70.0%9.67110
Caleb SturgisMia0.34350.0%50.0%9.25010
Adam VinatieriInd0.34660.0%60.0%11.06200
Stephen GostkowskiNE0.46670.0%70.0%11.87410
Shaun SuishamPit0.46845.5%45.5%8.55220
Dan BaileyDal0.47460.0%60.0%9.56220
Justin TuckerBal0.47760.0%60.0%9.06120
Mason CrosbyGB0.48260.0%60.0%8.86120
Chandler CatanzaroAri0.49130.0%30.0%8.23020
Cairo SantosKC0.49940.0%40.0%7.14020
Graham GanoCar0.50627.3%27.3%7.13030
Patrick MurrayTB0.52930.0%30.0%6.33030
Dan CarpenterBuf0.54350.0%50.0%8.85230
Shayne GrahamNO0.56840.0%40.0%7.74020
Randy BullockHou0.57350.0%50.0%8.65040
Sebastian JanikowskiOak0.57830.0%30.0%5.63040
Billy CundiffCle0.58530.0%30.0%7.33020
Brandon McManusDen0.58820.0%20.0%6.02040
Nick FolkNYJ0.60820.0%20.0%7.42210
Nick NovakSD0.60930.0%30.0%7.73030
Mike NugentCin0.67540.0%40.0%7.44130
Blair WalshMin0.67630.0%30.0%7.93140
Matt BryantAtl0.69240.0%40.0%8.64320
Phil DawsonSF0.72640.0%40.0%8.64240
Kai ForbathWsh0.73750.0%50.0%6.95040
Josh BrownNYG0.79340.0%40.0%6.04050
Greg ZuerleinStL0.85430.0%30.0%7.03140
Ryan SuccopTen0.85920.0%20.0%5.62150

<thead style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</thead><tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</tbody>


[h=3]Team defense/special teams[/h]
Player<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Team</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">CR</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Start%</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">PPR</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">FPTS/G</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Start</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Stud</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Stiff</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Sat</center>
Cowboys D/STDal0.63040.0%40.0%5.74010
Ravens D/STBal0.63440.0%40.0%7.44120
Lions D/STDet0.63860.0%60.0%9.16210
Bills D/STBuf0.69870.0%70.0%9.67120
Dolphins D/STMia0.70270.0%70.0%11.37210
Texans D/STHou0.74540.0%40.0%8.04120
Seahawks D/STSea0.76740.0%40.0%6.64030
Steelers D/STPit0.78345.5%45.5%6.55010
Broncos D/STDen0.80030.0%30.0%6.23130
49ers D/STSF0.83150.0%50.0%8.05020
Browns D/STCle0.97050.0%50.0%6.35030
Jets D/STNYJ0.97020.0%20.0%3.92040
Patriots D/STNE1.01640.0%40.0%8.34130
Cardinals D/STAri1.01950.0%50.0%8.95130
Chiefs D/STKC1.02320.0%20.0%6.82240
Eagles D/STPhi1.07450.0%50.0%10.85430
Vikings D/STMin1.08330.0%30.0%7.23340
Rams D/STStL1.08730.0%30.0%5.23120
Packers D/STGB1.17730.0%30.0%8.63220
Bears D/STChi1.53350.0%50.0%4.55020
Chargers D/STSD1.53740.0%40.0%4.54040
Buccaneers D/STTB1.60810.0%10.0%4.31130
Titans D/STTen1.68620.0%20.0%3.82040
Redskins D/STWsh1.73330.0%30.0%3.73050
Colts D/STInd1.76150.0%50.0%5.05140
Bengals D/STCin1.77820.0%20.0%3.52030
Jaguars D/STJac1.93120.0%20.0%3.22120
Raiders D/STOak2.04210.0%10.0%1.81050
Saints D/STNO2.11620.0%20.0%2.92040
Giants D/STNYG2.33720.0%20.0%2.62050
Panthers D/STCar2.61036.4%36.4%3.44150
Falcons D/STAtl2.74030.0%30.0%3.83150

<thead style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</thead><tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</tbody>


[h=3]Defensive linemen[/h]
Player<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Team</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">CR</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Start%</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">FPTS/G</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Start</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Stud</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Stiff</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Sat</center>
Kroy BiermannAtl0.39730.0%5.13040
Kyle WilliamsBuf0.43620.0%4.32051
Justin TuckOak0.46420.0%3.82051
Carlos DunlapCin0.48340.0%5.74130
Aaron DonaldStL0.50620.0%4.12040
Cameron JordanNO0.53230.0%4.63060
Julius PeppersGB0.54860.0%7.86330
Sheldon RichardsonNYJ0.55050.0%5.55140
Willie YoungChi0.56640.0%5.74120
Mario WilliamsBuf0.56620.0%5.92120
Bennie LoganPhi0.56720.0%3.42070
Muhammad WilkersonNYJ0.57050.0%5.85130
Johnathan HankinsNYG0.58320.0%4.02050
J.J. WattHou0.59280.0%10.68620
Rob NinkovichNE0.61130.0%6.13230
Ndamukong SuhDet0.62120.0%4.12060
Dontari PoeKC0.62540.0%4.54150
Jason Pierre-PaulNYG0.65140.0%5.94040
Domata PekoCin0.66420.0%3.42070
Haloti NgataBal0.67530.0%4.93150
Clinton McDonaldTB0.69130.0%4.33040
Gerald McCoyTB0.72440.0%5.14141
DeMarcus WareDen0.75150.0%5.95240
Cameron HeywardPit0.75127.3%3.53060
Robert AyersNYG0.76820.0%3.72150
Jerry HughesBuf0.77860.0%5.86140
Derrick MorganTen0.78320.0%4.42140
Sharrif FloydMin0.79220.0%3.92150
Calais CampbellAri0.80830.0%5.73242
Jurrell CaseyTen0.81230.0%4.93150
Cameron WakeMia0.81450.0%5.95140
Ezekiel AnsahDet0.82330.0%5.53250
Corey LiugetSD0.82330.0%4.33160
Allen BaileyKC0.82330.0%3.83060
Everson GriffenMin0.83150.0%6.65240
Cedric ThorntonPhi0.84420.0%4.22160
Fletcher CoxPhi0.85020.0%4.82150
Marcell DareusBuf0.85650.0%6.65250
Chris ClemonsJac0.86430.0%3.83060
Olivier VernonMia0.86630.0%4.63040
Robert QuinnStL0.86620.0%5.52260
Vince WilforkNE0.86920.0%2.42080
William HayesStL0.88520.0%3.02080
Ricky Jean FrancoisInd0.88820.0%2.82070
Chandler JonesNE0.91230.0%7.33123
Charles JohnsonCar0.93136.4%4.44050
Alex OkaforAri0.94020.0%4.32043
Mike DanielsGB1.00620.0%3.12060
George JohnsonDet1.01520.0%3.12070
Vinny CurryPhi1.02940.0%4.24050
Letroy GuionGB1.06130.0%2.83070
Michael BennettSea1.07220.0%3.32170
Ryan DavisJac1.07930.0%3.23060
Zach KerrInd1.09920.0%2.52070
Geno AtkinsCin1.17120.0%2.62080
Jack CrawfordDal1.27320.0%2.82035

<thead style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</thead><tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</tbody>


[h=3]Linebackers[/h]
Player<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Team</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">CR</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Start%</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">FPTS/G</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Start</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Stud</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Stiff</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Sat</center>
Paul WorrilowAtl0.21860.0%9.06010
Lavonte DavidTB0.28480.0%10.98400
Bobby WagnerSea0.28930.0%8.73015
Justin DurantDal0.31030.0%9.33114
Emmanuel LamurCin0.31430.0%7.53011
DeAndre LevyDet0.31670.0%9.57110
Luke KuechlyCar0.32863.6%9.97320
Josh MaugaKC0.33120.0%6.32060
David HarrisNYJ0.35330.0%6.63060
Curtis LoftonNO0.35540.0%8.24120
Keenan RobinsonWsh0.37230.0%8.03130
Nigel BradhamBuf0.39540.0%8.54122
Jamie CollinsNE0.39650.0%7.95021
Donald ButlerSD0.40920.0%6.52040
Larry FooteAri0.41520.0%5.92050
Thomas DavisCar0.41936.4%7.44031
Daryl SmithBal0.42350.0%8.05050
Brandon MarshallDen0.42950.0%9.15330
Perry RileyWsh0.44220.0%5.62042
Paul PoslusznyJac0.44650.0%9.75223
Sio MooreOak0.44630.0%8.93122
James LaurinaitisStL0.44830.0%7.23050
Lawrence TimmonsPit0.46245.5%7.85140
K.J. WrightSea0.46530.0%7.33140
C.J. MosleyBal0.48050.0%9.05340
Michael WilhoiteSF0.50220.0%5.42070
Karlos DansbyCle0.51330.0%6.93060
Preston BrownBuf0.51430.0%6.73040
Von MillerDen0.52530.0%6.63040
Jerod MayoNE0.53020.0%8.52124
D'Qwell JacksonInd0.53140.0%8.14250
Wesley WoodyardTen0.53820.0%6.12050
Demario DavisNYJ0.54640.0%7.44040
Jacquian WilliamsNYG0.54620.0%7.42141
DeMeco RyansPhi0.54820.0%6.12042
Justin HoustonKC0.56340.0%7.84130
Mychal KendricksPhi0.56930.0%8.13124
Chad GreenwayMin0.60330.0%7.63123
Alec OgletreeStL0.61540.0%8.34260
Brian CushingHou0.62140.0%6.64042
Jameel McClainNYG0.63130.0%6.43050
Dont'a HightowerNE0.67130.0%7.33142
Avery WilliamsonTen0.68820.0%5.92040
Jelani JenkinsMia0.70030.0%7.33150
Vincent ReyCin0.70920.0%5.22080
Anthony BarrMin0.71030.0%8.93240
Tamba HaliKC0.71930.0%6.03050
Nate IrvingDen0.73320.0%4.92052
Jasper BrinkleyMin0.74420.0%4.52070
Brandon GrahamPhi0.75120.0%4.72070
Ryan KerriganWsh0.75930.0%6.63250
Joplo BartuAtl0.77820.0%4.92070
Tahir WhiteheadDet0.79020.0%4.72180
Elvis DumervilBal0.81830.0%5.83040
Bjoern WernerInd0.84520.0%4.52070
Connor BarwinPhi0.89150.0%7.15250
Bruce CarterDal1.01720.0%6.92133
Danny LansanahTB1.04820.0%5.92170
Bruce IrvinSea1.09120.0%3.72071
Malcolm SmithSea1.10720.0%4.32062
Whitney MercilusHou1.13720.0%4.32080
J.T. ThomasJac1.14320.0%3.72060
Chris BorlandSF1.21840.0%6.74360
Anthony HitchensDal1.30820.0%3.52070

<thead style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</thead><tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</tbody>


[h=3]Defensive backs[/h]
Player<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Team</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">CR</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Start%</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">FPTS/G</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Start</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Stud</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Stiff</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">Sat</center>
Tyvon BranchOak0.11730.0%9.83007
James IhedigboDet0.26230.0%8.43013
Reshad JonesMia0.34740.0%8.54124
Barry ChurchDal0.34920.0%6.02080
Charles WoodsonOak0.36730.0%7.83140
Alterraun VernerTB0.36820.0%6.72042
Prince AmukamaraNYG0.37430.0%7.63132
Corey WhiteNO0.38930.0%6.33050
Eric WeddleSD0.43530.0%7.03060
Robert BlantonMin0.43520.0%6.52150
Tramon WilliamsGB0.43620.0%5.72060
Morgan BurnettGB0.44050.0%7.85031
Harrison SmithMin0.44640.0%7.94130
Brent GrimesMia0.44840.0%7.44150
Rodney McLeodStL0.46920.0%5.32080
Buster SkrineCle0.47430.0%6.33060
Antoine BetheaSF0.47940.0%7.44260
T.J. McDonaldStL0.48730.0%6.73060
Bradley RobyDen0.48830.0%6.33050
Dawan LandryNYJ0.49940.0%6.24050
Ron ParkerKC0.49930.0%7.33150
Donte WhitnerCle0.50730.0%6.93160
E.J. GainesStL0.51520.0%6.32050
Johnathan JosephHou0.51730.0%6.93150
Reggie NelsonCin0.51830.0%7.03140
Jason McCourtyTen0.52430.0%7.33060
Tashaun GipsonCle0.53130.0%7.33150
D.J. SwearingerHou0.53820.0%6.22060
George IlokaCin0.57130.0%5.93060
Byron MaxwellSea0.57620.0%5.62053
Kendrick LewisHou0.58120.0%6.42060
T.J. WardDen0.58630.0%5.03070
Kam ChancellorSea0.59220.0%6.82152
Mike AdamsInd0.59750.0%7.95140
Ryan MundyChi0.59820.0%6.22170
Johnathan CyprienJac0.60320.0%6.32051
Michael GriffinTen0.62040.0%7.94150
Cortland FinneganMia0.62720.0%5.82171
Jerraud PowersAri0.62920.0%5.42080
Leodis McKelvinBuf0.63020.0%6.82260
Chris CulliverSF0.63630.0%6.13051
Johnthan BanksTB0.63820.0%5.72051
Robert AlfordAtl0.63820.0%4.62080
Joe HadenCle0.65030.0%7.03160
Glover QuinDet0.65720.0%5.12060
Rashad JohnsonAri0.66140.0%8.34150
Kemal IshmaelAtl0.67130.0%6.63060
Janoris JenkinsStL0.69020.0%6.02162
D.J. HaydenOak0.70120.0%5.82026
Bradley FletcherPhi0.71320.0%6.72160
Casey HaywardGB0.72120.0%5.42060
Rahim MooreDen0.73520.0%4.42080
Corey GrahamBuf0.75130.0%5.13070
Antoine CasonCar0.75827.3%7.03270
Tony JeffersonAri0.78220.0%5.42060
TJ CarrieOak0.81420.0%4.32071
Trumaine McBrideNYG0.81530.0%6.03024
Antonio CromartieAri0.84620.0%5.12170
Antonio AllenNYJ0.85820.0%4.32080
Bashaud BreelandWsh0.86220.0%4.72070
A.J. BouyeHou0.87820.0%5.72152
Cortez AllenPit0.89727.3%5.33170
Brandon MeriweatherWsh0.89920.0%7.42152
Quintin DempsNYG0.97630.0%4.73070
Kyle FullerChi0.98330.0%5.73170
Kyle ArringtonNE1.39420.0%3.92180

<thead style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</thead><tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</tbody>

 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
140,720
Tokens
[h=1]Week 12 flex rankings
in.gif
[/h]
By Eric Karabell | ESPN Insider
By now you should be well aware that the ESPN trade deadline has passed, making it tougher to change the look of a fantasy roster. But guess what? You still have to put in a lineup for Week 12, and we’re here to help with our flex rankings. We combine the best of the running backs, wide receivers and tight ends into one list and then it’s up to you to decide your active roster. There’s certainly plenty of information at ESPN Fantasy to aid you.As always, best of luck to all in Week 12 and beyond!
1. DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys: For perspective, he’s the top non-QB in ESPN fantasy scoring, ninth overall, and there's no reason to expect he’ll fall apart. Look at the Dallas schedule!

2. Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs: Has scored a touchdown in five consecutive games, but the Chiefs seem to be underutilizing him. Only 22 catches all season? They still face the Raiders twice, which should help!

3. Matt Forte, RB, Bears: He has three times the receptions of Charles. Just seems odd. Forte could reach 100 catches.

4. Arian Foster, RB, Texans: Will he play or won’t he? Foster has destroyed the Bengals' defense in the past, so we really, really want him to play, but be prepared.

5. Eddie Lacy, RB, Packers: Not a ton of rushing yards, but plenty of fantasy points. And a nice schedule as well.

6. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos: Working on a streak with seven consecutive games of more than 100 receiving yards. He’s matchup proof.

7. Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers

8. LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles: Let’s move past the fact he’s been a rather large disappointment and enjoy what should be a friendly matchup.

9. Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys

10. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks: Not a good matchup. Might be ranked too generously here, but he has been playing well lately.

11. Mark Ingram, RB, Saints

12. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions: Welcome to Revis Island! Show him what he’s won! It’s a six-point fantasy game! Obviously we think he can do better.

13. Randall Cobb, WR, Packers

14. Justin Forsett, RB, Ravens: He’s actually seventh in the league in rushing -- in case you keep thinking Bernard Pierce is relevant.

15. Brandon Marshall, WR, Bears

16. Denard Robinson, RB, Jaguars: He’s probably not going for 201 yards and four touchdowns, which is what the Colts permitted last week, but dare to dream.

17. Jeremy Hill, RB, Bengals: Controversy! The rookie pushes aside the other young star! Well, it looks that way this week.
18. A.J. Green, WR, Bengals: How about the fact Green isn’t the top Bengal? We’re full of controversy today. I still think Green is far from 100 percent.

19. Jeremy Maclin, WR, Eagles: He and Mark Sanchez get along just fine. Not a worry. The Titans' secondary will fix everything.

20. Frank Gore, RB, 49ers: Has averaged 88 rushing yards the past two games, for all who consider him too old to help.

21. Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots: I admit, it sure looks like he’s going to play in every regular-season game. I’m glad I was incorrect if, you know, that ends up occurring.

22. Alshon Jeffery, WR, Bears

23. T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts

24. Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers: Has scored more fantasy points the past three weeks than his overrated, veteran teammate who was nearly a top-10 wide receiver last season.

25. Josh Gordon, WR, Browns: Never heard of him. Oh, and please stay outta trouble, Josh.

26. C.J. Anderson, RB, Broncos: A good play, not a sure thing.

27. Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Broncos: A great play when he is a sure thing. Currently dealing with a concussion.

28. Rashad Jennings, RB, Giants

29. Ryan Mathews, RB, Chargers

30. Julio Jones, WR, Falcons: His owners surely must have noticed his previous touchdown came in Week 3. And yet nobody would sit him.

31. Alfred Morris, RB, Redskins

32. Golden Tate, WR, Lions

33. Sammy Watkins, WR, Bills: When and where they play the Bills-Jets game, if it’s altered at all due to ridiculous snow amounts, isn’t really a fantasy factor yet. The game will be played this weekend.

34. Roddy White, WR, Falcons

35. Jimmy Graham, TE, Saints

36. Andre Ellington, RB, Cardinals: Certainly trending the wrong direction, and this is not a friendly matchup.

37. Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Giants

38. Mike Wallace, WR, Dolphins

39. Lamar Miller, RB, Dolphins

40. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans

41. DeSean Jackson, WR, Redskins: And you thought his first season with Washington would be completely smooth sailing. Statistically at least, it kind of has been.

42. Tre Mason, RB, Rams: Ran all over the Broncos; now we just need to see consistency.

43. Isaiah Crowell, RB, Browns: The opportunity is there to be a safe RB2. But even with Ben Tate being released (and winding up with the Vikings), he needs to play well to keep the role.

44. Andre Johnson, WR, Texans

45. Julian Edelman, WR, Patriots

46. Vincent Jackson, WR, Buccaneers: Not that it’s terribly relevant, but only 12 wide receivers scored more fantasy points last season. I think the talent is still there. Something’s missing.

47. Giovani Bernard, RB, Bengals: Not a great play this weekend. Let’s see how the time share progresses.

48. Jordan Matthews, WR, Eagles: Hard to believe, but even he has outscored LeSean McCoy. Also has 51 points the past three games.

49. Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts

50. Trent Richardson, RB, Colts: The extra volume will be nice, I suppose, but keep expectations in check now that Ahmad Bradshaw is done. The Colts could simply throw on literally every play now. Well, probably not.

51. Steven Jackson, RB, Falcons

52. Brandon LaFell, WR, Patriots

53. Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens: Definitely the Baltimore wide receiver to own currently.

54. Anquan Boldin, WR, 49ers: Definitely the San Francisco wide receiver to own currently.

55. Chris Ivory, RB, Jets: Definitely the Jets running back to own currently.

56. Joique Bell, RB, Lions: We can keep playing this game. This is the Lions WR to …

57. Mohamed Sanu, WR, Bengals … and the game stops here.

58. Jonas Gray, RB, Patriots: I like him, and blogged about him before his first snaps, but still, it’s time to sell.

59. Bishop Sankey, RB, Titans: Doesn’t look he’ll be the top offensive rookie this season. But you can count on him for five or six points per week.

60. Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers

61. Percy Harvin, WR, Jets: One of these weeks he’ll score, like, 30 fantasy points.

62. Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers

63. Larry Donnell, TE, Giants

64. Fred Jackson, RB, Bills: Important guy to watch if healthy. There’s upside despite his age.

65. Darren Sproles, RB, Eagles: Well, he’s clearly not going to catch anywhere close to 70 passes. Or 50.

66. Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers: First on team by a lot in targets and receptions, second in receiving yards, but one touchdown is a problem. A big problem. And there’s little reason to think more are coming.

67. Jerick McKinnon, RB, Vikings: The good news for him is Adrian Peterson is done. The bad news is they signed Ben Tate. McKinnon hasn’t been bad, but he doesn’t get in the end zone. Not that Tate is better. It’s a shame McKinnon hasn’t broken out.

68. Michael Floyd, WR, Cardinals

69. Martellus Bennett, TE, Bears

70. Julius Thomas, TE, Broncos: Teammate Demaryius Thomas boasts more than twice the targets and a ton of yards. But this Thomas has twice as many touchdowns. Low rank this week due to the ankle sprain concerns. He might not even play.

71. Marques Colston, WR, Saints: Really isn’t all that good anymore. I think we’re all overrating him.

72. Shane Vereen, RB, Patriots: Speaking of the “o” word. Nice player, but not nearly as productive as his owners probably realize.

73. Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks

74. Cecil Shorts III, WR, Jaguars: It’s a good time to invest in him. The Jaguars have done well against the Colts, too.

75. Charles Sims, RB, Buccaneers: The Bucs are in no hurry, but fantasy owners would like to see Sims do something positive.

76. Terrance West, RB, Browns: A wise handcuff at this point.

77. Rueben Randle, WR, Giants: Giants have a friendly schedule and this fellow sees many targets. Good time to invest here as well, though chances are you’ve got three better WR options.

78. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals: Tough injury and matchup this week. Try to avoid.

79. Bryce Brown, RB, Bills

80. Kenny Stills, WR, Saints: This is the Saints WR who should really emerge with Brandin Cooks out.

81. Andrew Hawkins, WR, Browns: Should still help PPR owners, despite Gordon’s return.

82. Alfred Blue, RB, Texans: Has proved himself in case Foster can’t go. Instant RB2 Sunday if Foster sits.

83. Pierre Garcon, WR, Redskins

84. Jason Witten, TE, Cowboys

85. Reggie Bush, RB, Lions: Last topped five fantasy points in Week 3. So why are you still thinking of playing him?

86. Matt Asiata, RB, Vikings: Best time to use him is in a two-week playoff when you’re down big and need a three-touchdown performance. He’s currently questionable for Sunday with a concussion.

87. Steve Smith, WR, Ravens

88. Eric Decker, WR, Jets

89. Allen Hurns, WR, Jaguars

90. Daniel Herron, RB, Colts: Ohio State product isn’t special, but neither is Trent Richardson.

91. Terrance Williams, WR, Cowboys

92. Malcom Floyd, WR, Chargers

93. Kendall Wright, WR, Titans

94. Kenny Britt, WR, Rams: Comes off best game in years, but he’s burned a lot of fantasy bridges.

95. Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs: When Alex Smith is looking for a red zone target, here’s where he looks. He just doesn’t look too often.

96. Bobby Rainey, RB, Buccaneers: Could’ve been a productive flex option for us, but the Bucs said no.

97. Juwan Thompson, RB, Broncos: Easy to see a scenario in which he soon matters.

98. James Jones, WR, Raiders

99. Coby Fleener, TE, Colts

100. Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders: He used to be good. And no, there’s no guaranteeLatavius Murray gets enough touches to matter.

Others: Wes Welker, WR, Broncos; Jarvis Landry, WR, Dolphins; Branden Oliver, RB, Chargers;John Brown, WR, Cardinals; Latavius Murray, RB, Raiders; Justin Hunter, WR, Titans; Knile Davis, RB, Chiefs; Theo Riddick, RB, Lions; Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs; Lorenzo Taliaferro, RB, Ravens;Chris Johnson, RB, Jets; Devonta Freeman, RB, Falcons; Roy Helu, RB, Redskins; Andre Williams, RB, Giants




 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
140,720
Tokens
[h=1]Consider starting Josh McCown[/h][h=3]Use Insider's ultimate matchup chart to set your lineup for Week 12[/h]
By Christopher Harris | ESPN Insider
Matchups are often a deciding factor for fantasy owners making lineup decisions between two or more players, but gauging the difficulty of each player's opponent can be tricky. That's where the Harris Index come in -- providing fantasy owners with a schedule-independent way to assess how strong opponents really are.
Each week, I'll update the Harris Index and offer a few nuggets about possible starts and sits based on the numbers. But please scroll down and play with the chart, sorting by various columns to discover which opponents are best and worst for your players to face.
Finally, please realize that this index is just one instrument I use in creating my weekly ranks. To get a direct sense of which players I think you should start and sit, please consult those rankings.
Here are some players I have identified as good or bad matchups using the data in the chart:
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">
</center>[h=3]Quarterbacks[/h]Good matchup: Josh McCown, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I rated McCown 15th among QBs this week, a high-water mark for the season. He's scored 19 fantasy points in back-to-back weeks as Mike Evans becomes a celebrity, but that's only part of the appeal. Facing a Chicago Bears defense that tacks more than five fantasy points onto opposing QBs makes him an interesting play for those who are desperate or who start two QBs in their format.
<offer></offer>
Bad matchup: Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks. In this weird year for fantasy QBs, I don't think many owners will sit Wilson this week, nor should they. But facing the Arizona Cardinals is tough, and Wilson hasn't topped 200 yards passing in a single game since Week 7. Fortunately, he often gives you those tasty rush yards.
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">
</center>[h=3]Running backs[/h]Good matchup: Andre Ellington, Arizona Cardinals. This is a good place to point out that the Harris Index is pure math. There are no qualitative elements. The numbers say that the Seahawks have added 3.8 fantasy points to opposing RBs during the past five weeks, sixth-most among NFL run defenses and outside the standard deviation. In that span, the likes of Jamaal Charles, Tre Mason and Jonathan Stewart have fared surprisingly well against the Seahawks, and you'll recall DeMarco Murray also did his thing in Seattle. But do I look at tape of Ellington and this defense and think, "goldmine?" Not so much. Still, the Harris Index helped me overcome my innate fear of using Ellington for this week, and at least consider it. Given his workload, I probably would continue to start him.
Good matchup: Denard Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars. Certainly the Indianapolis Colts' run defense numbers are skewed by Jonas Gray's ridiculous Week 11 numbers, but those count, right? Le'Veon Bell and Arian Foster both recently exceeded their average fantasy outputs against the Colts, too. Only a complete shutdown of the Cincinnati Bengals' run game in Week 6 should give you pause when considering Robinson.
Bad matchup: Fred Jackson & Co., Buffalo Bills. The New York Jets have removed 6.3 fantasy points from the averages of opposing RBs during the past five weeks, the highest rate in the NFL. Add some awful-looking weather, and ground yards may be at a premium. Given Jackson's groin issues and the Bryce Brown/Anthony Dixon rotation behind him, you're best off staying away from this group in Week 12.
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">
</center>[h=3]Wide receivers[/h]Good matchup: Mike Wallace, Miami Dolphins. To own "Mr. 60 Minutes" in a fantasy league is to know the sensation of a roller coaster in your sternum. I won't be so callow as to claim I know what's coming from him this week against the Denver Broncos, especially because Ryan Tannehill seems constitutionally incapable of throwing an accurate deep ball. But given how rough the Broncos have been against the run, and how the St. Louis Rams and New England Patriots exceeded their usual WR outputs against Denver, this is a week where taking a shot on Wallace sounds like an acceptable, if high-risk, strategy.
Bad matchup: Golden Tate, Detroit Lions. All the Patriots do these days is clamp down on opposing receivers. Expect to see Calvin Johnson covered by Brandon Browner and a host of over-the-top safeties, while Darrelle Revis mostly sticks with Tate. That's not a fate you particularly love for your fantasy WR, though Tate has been so steady that I can't call him an absolute must-bench. However, he is lower in my ranks than he's been since Week 5.
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">
</center>[h=3]Defense/special teams[/h]Indianapolis Colts D/ST. Surprise! The Jaguars are back from their bye, and I'm picking the D/ST starting against them. Believe it or not, the Carolina Panthers have actually been an even better matchup than the Jags of late, but it's their turn to rest.
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">
</center>[h=3]The Harris Index: Week 12[/h]Each number presented here reflects how far above or below a player's average a defense holds opponents at each position. Read the index thusly: "Team X currently holds an opposing QB to this many fantasy points above (for a positive number) or below (for a negative number) the QB's average."
Numbers that appear shaded in light green mean a statistically significant positive matchup; those shaded in light red mean a statistically significant negative matchup. Dark green and dark red mean extreme matchups on either end of the spectrum.
[h=3]Harris Index: Week 12[/h]<i style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;"><inline1>
TeamQB
Past5
QB
2014
RB
Past5
RB
2014
WR
Past5
WR
2014
TE
Past
TE
2014
DST
Past 5
DST
2014
Week 12
Opp.
i
-4.4-2.0-2.8-3.7-5.4-0.4-0.80.7-2.2-2.2@Sea
i
4.01.5-1.06.24.53.62.5-1.7-0.2-0.1Cle
i
3.10.1-1.9-5.12.01.4-0.3-1.5-0.1-2.0@NO
i
-3.6-1.3-1.2-5.11.22.7-4.2-2.3-0.50.6NYJ
i
-1.90.5-1.32.0-2.40.41.00.06.22.6BYE
i
5.13.0-3.10.0-1.6-1.28.85.7-0.40.3TB
i
-3.2-1.78.03.3-5.8-5.1-2.4-0.20.5-1.1@Hou
i
-3.3-1.9-0.91.3-0.7-1.30.0-0.80.8-1.3@Atl
i
3.0-0.20.8-0.9-1.4-2.72.33.50.00.6@NYG
i
4.31.4-4.6-3.57.40.90.20.6-4.4-5.9Mia
i
-1.5-3.8-2.7-3.2-0.6-4.5-2.2-0.3-2.90.2@NE
i
-0.1-1.3-2.50.44.33.22.2-0.7-5.2-3.3@Min
i
-0.60.02.11.52.14.8-1.9-3.0-4.0-1.2Cin
i
2.60.75.34.12.4-3.21.32.4-2.3-4.4Jac
i
-1.30.32.12.62.4-0.4-2.70.74.67.7@Ind
i
1.2-1.6-3.0-2.90.3-1.20.4-0.9-1.9-1.7@Oak
i
-5.5-4.3-1.5-0.2-6.3-3.0-3.3-2.6-0.3-0.5@Den
i
0.6-2.31.62.72.8-0.7-1.7-2.9-0.92.8GB
i
1.10.00.82.0-7.2-2.74.61.2-6.2-4.8Det
i
0.51.92.52.7-1.61.10.9-0.6-3.2-2.6Bal
i
2.20.05.83.1-0.5-3.22.53.11.30.1Dal
i
0.12.8-6.3-3.5-0.40.30.42.4-1.22.0@Buf
i
-0.1-0.24.84.6-4.0-2.0-0.2-1.03.62.1KC
i
1.83.3-1.42.34.44.3-0.9-2.40.6-0.4Ten
i
3.61.0-4.3-0.96.40.6-0.22.0-0.7-1.2BYE
i
1.70.91.80.33.20.9-1.8-1.41.7-2.2StL
i
-2.8-1.9-2.4-5.70.90.70.2-1.64.61.5Wsh
i
-2.6-3.03.8-0.4-2.5-4.7-1.40.30.1-1.2Ari
i
-0.10.9-5.0-3.61.13.50.2-1.34.55.3@SD
i
1.62.50.11.01.14.6-1.7-0.53.05.1@Chi
i
-5.0-1.05.81.8-4.3-0.5-0.90.82.02.4@Phi
i
2.45.11.4-3.51.42.10.62.32.22.3@SF

<thead style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</thead><tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</tbody>
</inline1>
</i>



 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
140,720
Tokens
[h=1]32 fantasy tips to win in Week 13[/h][h=3]How to value Latavius Murray, Josh Gordon and others in the weeks ahead[/h]By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Mike Clay[/FONT] | Pro Football Focus


elow are 32 notes covering each of the league's 32 teams. Use these tidbits to make the best waiver-wire, trade and lineup decisions this week. Be sure to check back each week of the season for a new version of the Fantasy 32.
(Note: I've written at length about opportunity-adjusted touchdowns (OTD) in the past. If you're new to the stat, be sure to check out our introduction to rushing and receiving OTD. The OTD metric weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity.)


1. Last week, I told you to grab Latavius Murray off waivers. This week, I'm telling you to temper expectations down the stretch. Week 11 marked only the second time this season in which theOakland Raiders eclipsed two offensive touchdowns in a single game. They called 30 runs vs. theKansas City Chiefs, which was well above their 17.5 season average and nine ahead of their previous season high. With St. Louis, San Francisco, Buffalo and Kansas City (this time on the road) on tap, Oakland has a brutal schedule down the stretch. Murray looks the part of a starting back, and figures to easily lead the Raiders backfield in touches down the stretch, but Oakland's offense is not very good and the schedule is tough. He's a borderline RB2 option.
2. Josh Gordon made his 2014 debut Sunday, which gives us our first look at the Cleveland Browns' offensive personnel usage going forward. Gordon paced the club's wide receivers in snaps with 49. He handled a massive 15 of the team's 37 targets. Semi-surprisingly, Miles Austin was second in line, albeit one snap ahead of slot man Andrew Hawkins. Taylor Gabriel and Travis Benjamin were relegated to situational duties, working a total of 37 snaps. Although Hawkins racked up 93 yards on five receptions, note that he did it on just five targets in a game where Cleveland was unconventionally balanced offensively (usually they are very run heavy). Gordon is locked in as a weekly WR1, but Hawkins is best-viewed as a WR5.
3. Robert Griffin III has proved to be quite the polarizing player, and his 2014 campaign has only widened the gap. The Washington Redskins have a total of six offensive touchdowns in the four complete games Griffin has played this season. To put that in perspective, check out this leaguewide comparison:
<offer></offer>
[h=4]Offensive Touchdowns Per Game, 2014 Season[/h]
TeamOff. TDs/gmNFL Rank
Denver Broncos3.81
Indianapolis Colts3.32
Washington Redskins without RG III2.6
NFL Average2.4
Jacksonville Jaguars, Minnesota Vikings1.632
Redskins with RG III1.5

<thead style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</thead><tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</tbody>


What's odd here is that, statistically, his individual performance has been a lot better. Griffin's 69 percent completion rate trails only Drew Brees for best in the league. He does throw underneath quite a bit, but note that his 7.3 yards per attempt ranks in the upper half of the league. At the end of the day, however, that has all led to a dismal 2-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Not producing through the air, and having gone 19 consecutive games without a rushing touchdown, Griffin is well off the QB1 radar.
4. Week 12 gave us our first look at the Ahmad Bradshaw-less Indianapolis Colts offense. Trent Richardson paced the backfield in snaps (40), but was asked to block on one-quarter of those snaps. He managed 13 carries and was not targeted. Daniel Herron got the surprise start. He carried the ball on 12 occasions and was targeted on five of his 31 snaps. Richardson scored a touchdown in the game, but it's clear that his role is the same as it was when Bradshaw was healthy. Herron is a must-own in all formats and is already on the RB2 radar. Richardson is a touchdown-dependent flex option with a very low floor and ceiling.
5. It appears that there's been a changing of the guard at wide receiver in Minnesota. Charles Johnson -- a 2013 seventh-round pick by Green Bay -- paced the unit in both snaps and targets Sunday. Johnson was in on all but two offensive plays, replacing usual starter Cordarrelle Patterson, who worked 29 snaps. Greg Jennings operated as the team's No. 2 receiver, whileJarius Wright played eight snaps. Johnson is nothing more than a WR5 in Minnesota's struggling offense, but he's a very intriguing dynasty hold. He has the size (6-foot-2, 215 pounds) and speed (4.38 40-yard dash) to produce at a high level.
6. Looking for the next breakout rookie wide receiver? Look no further than Indianapolis. Third-round pick Donte Moncrief played more snaps than struggling Hakeem Nicks on Sunday. The rookie caught all four of his targets for 38 yards and has hauled in an impressive 78 percent of his 27 targets for 256 yards this season. Nicks, meanwhile, has a slightly higher average depth of target, but has caught 51 percent of his 47 targets. With Reggie Wayne on the decline, and Moncrief on the verge of playing in three-wide sets, the rookie should be owned in 12-team leagues.
7. Jarvis Landry's position-low 5.3 average depth of target leaves a lot to be desired, but his playing time does not. The Miami Dolphins utilize their "11" offensive personnel package -- three wide receivers, one running back, one tight end -- a league-high 74 percent of the time. The rookie scored two touchdowns Sunday, which vaults him to 36th in fantasy points among wide receivers in PPR formats. Primarily an underneath target, Landry is unlikely to sustain his current touchdown rate of one score every 9.8 receptions, but he's clearly emerging as Ryan Tannehill's No. 2 target. He's a borderline WR3 in PPR.
8. Nick Foles' injury has been bad news for Jeremy Maclin's fantasy stock. Foles was under center for each of the Philadelphia Eagles' first seven games. During that span, Maclin scored six touchdowns and was fifth among wide receivers in fantasy points. In Mark Sanchez's three full games as starter, Maclin has one score and is 22nd in fantasy points. Maclin averaged 10.6 targets per game with Foles and is down to 8.7 per game with Sanchez. With Jordan Matthewsand Josh Huff emerging, and Sanchez throwing to Brent Celek more often, Maclin's value has clearly taken a slight hit. He's best viewed as a good WR2, rather than a strong WR1.
9. Josh McCown has played five complete games this season. During those five weeks, he's scored the fifth-most fantasy points among quarterbacks. McCown's 7-7 TD-INT mark is certainly underwhelming, but he's averaging 258 passing yards, while also adding 92 yards and a pair of touchdowns with his legs. Although this may appear to make McCown a sneaky QB1 option down the stretch, his schedule isn't particularly easy (vs. CIN, at DET, at CAR, vs. GB, vs. NO). Also, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers all but eliminated at 2-9, it's plausible that Mike Glennon gets another start or two later this season.
10. Alex Smith is the Leroy Hoard of quarterbacks. Need a yard? He'll get you 3. Need 7 yards? He'll get you 3. Fortunately for Dwayne Bowe owners, a lot of those 3-yard tosses are going to Smith's top wideout. Bowe saw only 16 percent of the Kansas City Chiefs' targets this past week, but consider that it was his lowest total since his season debut in Week 2. Bowe had averaged 31 percent of the targets over the previous five games. Bowe still hasn't scored this season, but he's seeing enough volume to allow one or two down the stretch. He's a borderline WR3 in PPR.
11. Consider the percentage of leaguewide offensive touchdowns that have been of the passing variety, as displayed in the chart.
[h=4]Percent Of NFL TDs Through The Air[/h]
SeasonPercent
200857.7
200962.4
201065.2
201165.4
201265.3
201365.9
201468.2

<thead style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</thead><tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</tbody>


That's an 18 percent increase from 2008, and clearly a huge boost from where we were one year ago. The biggest culprits here are the Buffalo Bills(52 percent in 2013, 77 percent in 2014), New England Patriots (50 percent, 75 percent), Raiders (52 percent, 79 percent) and San Francisco 49ers(53 percent, 73 percent). The Bills, Raiders and 49ers are all throwing the ball more often this season, which helps explain the boost. The Patriots have six rushing scores over their past two games, but they entered Week 11 with a 23-3 pass/rush touchdown ratio. The Patriots are scoring enough to support Rob Gronkowski, Brandon LaFell and Julian Edelman, but secondary receivers on Buffalo, Oakland and San Francisco should be avoided where possible. Michael Crabtree, Anquan Boldinand Vernon Davis have combined for an underwhelming 10 touchdowns this season.
12. On the other hand, the Cincinnati Bengals (71 percent, 50 percent) and Cleveland Browns (86 percent, 44 percent) have seen large dips from where they were last season. Both teams drastically changed offensive philosophy during the offseason. This is good news for the likes ofIsaiah Crowell and Jeremy Hill down the stretch, but will continue to keep Brian Hoyer and Andy Dalton off the QB1 radar. Josh Gordon and A.J. Green see enough target volume to warrant WR1 consideration, but Mohamed Sanu (WR3) and Andrew Hawkins (WR5) are not safe weekly plays.
13. Following a lull in which he totaled 17 targets in four games during Weeks 4-7, Jason Wittenhas seen at least 23 percent of the Dallas Cowboys' targets in four consecutive games. His 28 targets during the four-game stretch is only four behind Dez Bryant for the team lead. Witten has three touchdowns and sits fourth in fantasy points among tight ends since Week 8. Clearly back on track as Tony Romo's No. 2 target, Witten is a safe TE1 play going forward.
14. Knile Davis had a nice run there for a while, but the Chiefs have clearly returned ownership of their backfield to Jamaal Charles. After Davis outcarried Charles 99-77 during the team's first seven games, Charles holds a 74-14 advantage during the past month. Charles has now handled at least two-thirds of the team's designed runs in four consecutive games. Going forward, Charles is arguably the top fantasy running back, while Davis is well off the flex radar.
15. Prior to allowing a pair of rushing touchdowns to Miami on Sunday, the Denver Broncos had gone six consecutive games without allowing a score on the ground. Don't be fooled by the "down" week; Denver has arguably the best run defense in the league. Per my nerdy metrics, nine of 11 backfields produced at a level below league average when facing Denver. The two exceptions (Indianapolis and Miami) were right at league average. If we focus solely on designed rushing attempts, Denver has held six backfields below 40 yards. The St. Louis Rams were the only team to go over 100 yards and they required 32 attempts. Jamaal Charles, Fred Jacksonand Ryan Mathews will have their hands full over the next three weeks.
16. Entering Week 12, there had to be some concern about Eddie Lacy's workload. With theGreen Bay Packers blowing out teams seemingly every week, Lacy had handled fewer than half of the Packers' designed runs in five of the team's previous six games. In fact, during that span, Lacy was dead last in carries among the top 16 fantasy running backs. Bailing him out were a half dozen touchdowns during the six-game stretch. In a competitive Week 12 game in Minnesota, Lacy returned to workhorse duties, handling 25 of 26 possible carries. He scored twice and is up to seventh in fantasy points among running backs this season. With Atlanta, Buffalo and Tampa Bay on the slate during the fantasy playoffs, Lacy is a safe RB1 option.


17. Calvin Johnson has played at least 75 percent of the Detroit Lions' snaps in six games this season. In those games, he's seen a massive 32 percent of the team's targets (or 11.5 per game). Johnson hasn't handled more than 30 percent of Detroit's targets since 2008. He has "only" three touchdowns this season, but it's obviously not a product of a dip in usage. The Lions' scoring woes are to blame. After tossing 90 touchdowns during the past three seasons, Matthew Stafford has 13 in 11 games this season. He's yet to throw for more than two scores in a single game. Johnson's usage makes him a strong WR1 option, but he remains a tier below Demaryius Thomas,Antonio Brown and Jordy Nelson.
18. As a result of injuries and a heavier reliance on Matt Forte and Martellus Bennett, 40 percent of Jay Cutler's targets were directed at the Brandon Marshall-Alshon Jeffery duo during theChicago Bears' first five games this season. That mark increased with impressive consistency each of the following five weeks (Week 6, 44 percent; Week 7, 48 percent; Week 8, 53 percent; Week 10, 57 percent; Week 11, 63 percent) before dipping drastically to 34 percent in Week 12. Marshall and Jeffery combined for six receptions, 54 yards and one touchdown on nine targets in the game. It should be relatively obvious, but this was a clear outlier. The duo combined to handle 55 percent of Chicago's targets last season and it's fair to expect usage to be around that rate. Both Marshall and Jeffery are strong weekly WR1 options.
19. We thought Week 12 would be a Shane Vereen week and, sure enough, it was a Shane Vereen week. Despite blowing out Detroit by a score of 34-9, the Patriots called 53 passes and 20 runs in Week 12. The game plan was clearly pass-heavy against the Lions' tough run defense. I mention Vereen because his usage correlates well with the offensive game plan. In New England's five pass-heavy games, Vereen played 75 percent of the snaps and handled 47 percent of the carries. In five run-heavy games, he played 37 percent of the snaps and handled 15 percent of the carries. That's no coincidence.
Looking forward, Green Bay, San Diego and Miami are next up on the docket. All three teams have been better against the pass than they have the run. This bodes well for LeGarrette Blount(and possibly Jonas Gray) and poorly for Vereen. Of course, if New England trails on the road against Green Bay and San Diego, Vereen will be busy in the second half. The Patriots do play the Jets in Week 16, which is championship week for most leagues. New York is struggling, but its run defense has been very good, while its secondary is a mess.
20. Jimmy Graham, Demaryius Thomas, Odell Beckham Jr., A.J. Green, Kenny Britt and Marqise Lee paced the league in receiving OTD this past week. Graham was targeted four times within 3 yards of the end zone and scored twice. Thomas scored on all three of his end zone targets. Beckham made the catch of the year (maybe the best catch ever) on one of his two touchdowns. Only Antonio Gates (11) and Kelvin Benjamin (12) have more end zone targets than Beckham since the rookie made his debut in Week 5. Green racked up 15 targets, but was targeted in the end zone once and failed to score. Britt saw a pair of end zone looks, but also did not score. Lee saw the first two end zone targets of his career, but has still yet to record his first NFL touchdown.
21. Matt Forte, Mark Ingram, LeGarrette Blount, Jeremy Hill and Fred Jackson paced the league in rushing OTD in Week 12. Forte scored from distances of 1 and 13 yards, while adding four additional tries inside the Tampa Bay 10-yard line. Ingram failed to score, but racked up three carries inside the Ravens' 3-yard line. He's an ugly 1-of-5 from 1 yard out this season. Blount scored on two of his 12 carries in his 2014 regular-season debut for the Pats. Five of the carries were within 10 yards of the end zone. Hill handled all three of the Bengals' tries within 5 yards of the end zone. He scored on one, and seems to have taken over as the club's goal-line back. Jackson scored on one of three carries within 5 yards of the end zone.
22. With Larry Fitzgerald inactive, Jaron Brown surprisingly paced Arizona's wide receivers in snaps (43) and targets (six). Michael Floyd (two targets) and John Brown (four) struggled againstRichard Sherman and Byron Maxwell out wide, while Jaron Brown worked against Jeremy Lane in the slot. Floyd's disappointing season continues, but with Fitzgerald iffy for a Week 13 matchup with Atlanta, both Floyd and John Brown will be much busier. They're on the WR3 radar.
23. I mentioned this in the preseason, but it's worth bringing up again. Last season, the Broncos were one of two teams with three wide receivers among the top 36 in fantasy points. The other was the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh was on a bye this past week, but in the four previous weeks, three Steelers wideouts were among the top 36 fantasy wide receivers. Antonio Brown (fourth), Martavis Bryant (fifth) and Markus Wheaton (31st) combined for 888 yards and 11 touchdowns during the stretch. Wheaton has been playing more snaps than Bryant, but it's become clear that the latter is Ben Roethlisberger's second favorite target after Brown. Going forward, Brown is a strong WR1 and Bryant a borderline WR2. The wide receiver position is deep enough that Wheaton is best viewed as a WR5.
24. Zach Mettenberger now has four games under his belt as Tennessee's starting quarterback. Thus far, his favorite target has been Justin Hunter. He's targeted Hunter a team-high 26 times, but has completed only 12 for 172 yards and two scores. The scores are nice, but the efficiency is terrible. The rest of Mettenberger's target distribution is as follows: Kendall Wright (22), Delanie Walker (21 in three games), Nate Washington (14), Bishop Sankey (10), Dexter McCluster(nine), all others (18). Hunter and Wright are not worth WR3 consideration most weeks. Walker is a decent TE1 and Sankey is a back-end RB2.


25. Entering Week 12, rookie Devonta Freeman had been averaging 11.2 snaps per game. With Antone Smith done for the year, Freeman's role figured to increase. Instead, he played 11 snaps against Cleveland. Freeman is still well behind Steven Jackson (27.5 snaps per game) andJacquizz Rodgers (18.3), but keep in mind that he's still the handcuff to own here. If Jackson gets hurt or is demoted if Atlanta ends up eliminated from playoff contention, Freeman will be the big winner. A fourth-round pick in May, Freeman showed a ton of flash when racking up 280 yards on 43 touches during the preseason. Freeman is a decent stash in deeper leagues.
26. Last season, the Baltimore Ravens scored 26 offensive touchdowns (1.6 per game). Through 11 games of the 2014 season, they've already found paydirt on 31 occasions (2.8 per game). Despite the massive improvement, Joe Flacco has eclipsed two passing touchdowns in a game only twice. The major boost has come via the team's running game. After totaling seven rushing touchdowns in 2013, Baltimore has 13 this season, including at least one in nine of its 11 games. Arguably the biggest surprise of the year, Justin Forsett is eighth in fantasy points among running backs and his 5.8 yards per carry leads all backs with at least 50 carries. With a clear hold of the team's lead back job, Forsett is a safe back-end RB1.
27. Monday night gave us our first look as to how the New Orleans Saints plan on replacingBrandin Cooks. Marques Colston (67 snaps) was the clear top option at wide receiver, but it wasn't as clear-cut as expected behind him. Kenny Stills (50) was second in line, but he was just ahead of 2012 fourth-round pick Nick Toon (44). Joseph Morgan (19) had a pair of big plays, but the low snap total suggests he's not worth your attention on waivers. At 6-4, 218 pounds, Toon has always been an intriguing specimen, but durability woes from his Wisconsin days have carried over to the NFL. He's worth stashing in dynasty leagues and should be on re-draft watch lists.
28. Darren Sproles carried the ball six times against Tennessee on Sunday, which matched Sproles' total from the team's previous three games. Sproles is a big-play machine, but he's averaging a measly seven touches per game and sits 46th in fantasy points among running backs since Week 3. He's a boom/bust flex option, but only if you're desperate.
29. Houston Texans quarterbacks have directed 35 passes at the tight end position, which is tied with the Falcons for fewest in the league. Houston actually ranks in the upper half of the league in deploying two-plus tight end sets, but Garrett Graham (25 targets), C.J. Fiedorowicz (four) andRyan Griffin (four) simply haven't been thrown the ball very often. Graham did see a slight uptick with Ryan Mallett under center the past two weeks, but Mallett is done for the season with a pectoral injury. Oddly, the tight ends aren't even being used near the goal line. J.J. Watt has as many end zone targets (two) as all of Houston's tight ends combined.
30. Russell Wilson targeted the tight end position 30 percent of the time during Seattle's past two games. That's not something you should expect to continue. Wilson went to his tight end 23 percent of the time in 2012, 20 percent of the time last season and currently sits at 19 percent in 2014. Tony Moeaki, Cooper Helfet and Luke Willson are all playing significant snaps for Seattle, but none are on the fantasy radar. Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse, Paul Richardson andMarshawn Lynch (in that order) will continue on as Wilson's primary targets.
31. Dynasty alert: Just prior to Week 15 of next season, Matt Forte turns 30. That's something Forte's dynasty owners need to be thinking about. Now over 250 touches for the seventh consecutive season, Forte's impending decline is inevitable. He's obviously a terrific talent, but running backs, especially those who see massive workloads, simply haven't been able to maintain their effectiveness into their 30s. Also, Ka'Deem Carey -- a fourth-round pick in May's draft -- has a ton of ability. He's the top candidate to eventually replace Forte as Chicago's lead back. He's a must-stash in all dynasty formats.
32. There are a ton of rookie wide receivers making an impact this season, which helps explain why Bengals rookie James Wright is being completely overlooked. Wright, A.J. Green and Mohamed Sanu are the only Bengals wide receivers who have played a snap since Wright was promoted to third on the depth chart back in Week 11. Wright -- a seventh-round pick who strictly played special teams behind Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry at LSU last season -- has seen only 10 targets on the year. He's unlikely to provide fantasy value this season, but the 22-year-old is a must-monitor in dynasty formats.
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
140,720
Tokens
[h=1]Free-agent finds for Week 13[/h][h=3]Latavius Murray, Daniel Herron, Jarvis Landry among top options[/h]
By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

Waiver-wire news changes throughout the week as injuries and depth-chart shenanigans overtake us. So be sure to follow me on Twitter by clicking on the link next to my headshot at the bottom of the column, and I'll keep you updated as news warrants.
Let's get to the best fantasy roster additions heading into Week 13:
Standard ESPN league finds
Latavius Murray, RB, Oakland Raiders (owned in 10.1 percent of ESPN leagues): Murray graduates from "speculative" to "must-own" after just four touches Thursday night. That prime-time showing was enough to make the football world wonder what the Raiders have been waiting for. Why have they been trundling out Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew when they had this 6-foot-3, 225-pound second-year player in the stable? With his four touches against theKansas City Chiefs, Murray scored a red zone TD and then busted loose for a 90-yard score before suffering a concussion. There's no guarantee Murray gets healthy in time for Week 13 versus theSt. Louis Rams, nor do I feel particularly sure that: (a) the Raiders are smart enough to make Murray their full-time back, or (b) any Raiders RB can be consistent enough to become a trustworthy fantasy starter. But if you're in Hail Mary mode, Murray's your guy.
Daniel Herron, RB, Indianapolis Colts (15.1 percent): "Boom" also makes the jump up from "speculative," as the Colts made him a full partner with Trent Richardson in their backfield in Week 12. Herron played 31 snaps against the Jacksonville Jaguars; Richardson played 40. And though Richardson scored a short TD, Herron shone by comparison. (Frankly, I'm not sure how hard it is to shine by comparison. See also: Donald Brown.) Herron will also be difficult to trust right away in must-win situations, but it wouldn't be shocking to see Indy shift its workload in his direction. Richardson's vision and game sense just don't pass muster.

Jarvis Landry, WR, Miami Dolphins(11.2 percent): Here's a third player taking the jump up to the big list. Landry's LSU teammate, Odell Beckham Jr., has been my binky for two months (as Fantasy Underground podcastlisteners can attest), but obviously he's long since owned in your league. Fellow rookie Landry isn't the same kind of athletic marvel, but he's not bad. On tape, he's a decisive player who gets open and is physical after the catch, especially for a non-huge receiver. Try not to get blinded by two TDs in Week 12 versus theDenver Broncos. Instead, focus on the fact that Landry has 24 targets in his past three games, compared to seven forBrian Hartline. Landry isn't the focal point of this Dolphins' attack, but he's trending in the right direction.

St. Louis Rams Defense (24.0 percent): This unit has lived up to its preseason billing during the past month, with a regular pass rush, some turnovers and last week's 99-yard Janoris Jenkins pick-six. They get the Raiders at home in Week 13, and while the Raiders' line has done a decent job protecting Derek Carr (who has been sacked only 12 times), Oakland still represents a positive matchup for opposing fantasy defenses. You could certainly also look at the New York Giants (4.4 percent), as they get to face the Jaguars, but realize that this Giants D hasn't scored more than four fantasy points in a game since Week 4, and has gone for zero or negative fantasy points three times in that span. This will be a true test of the Jags' ability to create a top-12 fantasy defense every single week so far in 2014 -- which, yes, is something they've actually done. They stink.
Other solid waiver adds, about whom I've written in previous weeks: Ryan Tannehill, QB, Dolphins (49.6 percent); Branden Oliver, RB, Chargers (41.2 percent); Knile Davis, RB, Chiefs (32.8 percent); Andrew Hawkins, WR, Browns (44.6 percent).
Speculative standard-league finds
LeGarrette Blount, RB, New England Patriots (20.1 percent): I am under no illusion that the Pats will settle on Blount as their main ball carrier. And in fact his "big game" in Week 12 required Jonas Gray to oversleep, garbage time against the Detroit Lions and a late alteration of a game plan that saw New England run the ball six times in the first half. For me, there are too many week-to-week variables to render any Patriots RB trustworthy, but you're free to add Blount and hope for December clarity.

Kenny Stills, WR, New Orleans Saints (15.7 percent): With Brandin Cooks out, Stills has an opportunity to establish himself as more than just a situational deep threat. Monday night against the Baltimore Ravens, Stills produced 98 yards on eight grabs (though three of those came with Baltimore playing a soft prevent). Investing heavily in Drew Brees' ancillary weapons isn't safe, but Stills is more than a one-trick pony as a receiver. I think adding him in situations where you need upside and can tolerate risk makes some sense.

Tim Wright, TE, Patriots (4.5 percent): Wright played a season-high 55 snaps in Week 12, easily beating his previous single-game high of 21. (He had played 11 snaps in consecutive weeks leading into Sunday.) So while it's tempting to overreact to Wright's two Sunday scores (six total this season), realize that the Pats don't consistently use their "12" formation (with two tight ends). Tight end is a maddening position, and if you don't have one of the elites, I can't convincingly steer you away from taking a shot on Wright. My guess, though, is that just when you start to trust him, he'll disappear.

Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints (34.4 percent): Frenchy returned Monday night after a four-game absence and picked up where he left off, mostly serving as a drain on Mark Ingram. But with Khiry Robinson's return nowhere in sight, Thomas has a chance to be a bigger part of New Orleans' vanished screen game. He caught six passes Monday and is usually a decent bet to play about 30 snaps per game, giving him some PPR flex appeal.
Jordan Cameron, TE, Cleveland Browns (40.1 percent): Cameron has missed four games because of a concussion, but was able to practice some in advance of Week 12 and reportedly has a chance to suit up Sunday versus the Buffalo Bills. Not only was he hugely disappointing in the season's first two months -- failing to catch more than three passes in any single game -- but he carries a big risk of re-injury. Still, Cameron is only a year away from solid fantasy production, and the TE position is a vast wasteland.
Other speculative standard-league waiver adds, about whom I've written in previous weeks:Bryce Brown, RB, Bills (7.8 percent); Anthony Dixon, RB, Bills (14.4 percent); Bernard Pierce, RB, Ravens (10.6 percent); Lorenzo Taliaferro, RB, Ravens (21.5 percent); Charles Sims, RB, Buccaneers (28.4 percent); Theo Riddick, RB, Lions (8.0 percent); Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers (29.8 percent); DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers (22.9 percent); Kenny Britt, WR, Rams (35.8 percent); John Brown, WR, Cardinals (25.4 percent); Cecil Shorts, WR, Jaguars (41.1 percent); Davante Adams, WR, Packers (9.6 percent); Greg Jennings, WR, Vikings (42.3 percent); Markus Wheaton, WR, Steelers (12.9 percent); Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings (16.0 percent); Owen Daniels, TE, Ravens (34.8 percent); Mychal Rivera, TE, Raiders (47.6 percent).
Deeper-league finds
Charles Johnson, WR, Minnesota Vikings (0.3 percent): Quarterback Teddy Bridgewaterwasn't exactly firing on all cylinders Sunday against the Green Bay Packers. If you're going to basically run a high school offense, you really should have better throwing accuracy. But Johnson (who was a Super-Deep Sleeper of mine back in August, though back then he played for the Browns) underwent a bit of a bust-out, playing a season-high 62 snaps (his previous high had been 24). Johnson has passed Jarius Wright on the Vikings' depth chart and has nine grabs in his past two games combined. He's not usable right now outside of very deep leagues, but you can stash him.
Robert Turbin, RB, Seattle Seahawks (2.6 percent): This is a reminder as the fantasy playoffs approach that handcuffs are still important, and the Seahawks appear to have landed on Turbin as their heir apparent should Marshawn Lynch get hurt. Lynch missed two series Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals and Turbin filled in, while Christine Michael (2.5 percent) sat.

Other solid waiver adds for deep-leaguers, about whom I've written in previous weeks: Josh McCown, QB, Buccaneers (16.7 percent); Joseph Randle, RB, Cowboys (5.6 percent); Lance Dunbar, RB, Cowboys (1.3 percent); Carlos Hyde, RB, 49ers (19.0 percent); Benny Cunningham, RB, Rams (9.8 percent); Juwan Thompson, RB, Broncos (5.4 percent); Malcom Floyd, WR, Chargers (39.7 percent); Robert Woods, WR, Bills (3.5 percent); Andre Holmes, WR, Raiders (12.6 percent); Donte Moncrief, WR, Colts (1.8 percent); Allen Hurns, WR, Jaguars (13.6 percent); Jacob Tamme, TE, Broncos (8.1 percent).
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
140,720
Tokens
[h=1]Long-term pickups for Week 13[/h][h=3]Donte Moncrief among players with immediate and future value[/h]
By Matt Williamson | ESPN Insider

As we enter Week 13, the bye weeks are over and the fantasy football playoffs are nearing. Now isn't the time to fool around too much with your roster, but there are still guys on the waiver wire who can help you.
Hopefully your core players are healthy and in place for this stretch run; fortunately, there were not a lot of key skill-position player injuries this past week, but if you need a little boost, consider the players listed below.

[h=3]Redraft[/h]14-team or larger leagues
i

<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
Blount
</center>

LeGarrette Blount, RB, New England Patriots
Jonas Gray owners despise Blount, who was signed this week after being cut by the Steelers. Back with his old team, it was Blount who was New England's hammer rather than Gray on Sunday. The Patriots employed a pass-first offense against one of the league's best defenses; Tom Brady attempted 53 passes against the Detroit Lions and New England running backs carried the ball just 20 times.<offer></offer>
But it was Blount who received a dozen of those 20 carries, averaging 6.5 yards per tote to go along with 2 touchdowns. Gray received zero carries. None of us know how Patriots coach Bill Belichick is going to distribute carries, but we do know the Pats vary their game plan week to week more than any team in the league. With road trips to Green Bay and San Diego up next, it would not be surprising to see New England rely on its power running game -- as it did in Week 11 when the Patriots drubbed the Colts in Indianapolis.
i

<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
Taylor
</center>

Stepfan Taylor, RB, Arizona Cardinals
As expected, the Cardinals had a very difficult time on the ground in their Week 12 loss in Seattle. Andre Ellington is an impressive young back with great receiving skills, but it looks like he's wearing down. Ellington has averaged more than 4 yards per carry only three times this season, and just once in his past nine games. In fact, over his past three contests, Ellington is averaging a putrid 1.89 yards per rush. Taylor certainly is not a special talent, but he runs hard and has size and physicality. His role should increase, and he's already Arizona's goal-line running back.
Others to consider: Jace Amaro, Derek Carr, Malcom Floyd, Devonta Freeman, Toby Gerhart,Roy Helu, Josh McCown, Chris Polk, Drew Stanton, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Damien Williams

12-team leagues
i

<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
Bailey
</center>

Stedman Bailey, WR, St. Louis Rams
Bailey has been listed with the dynasty pickups for some time now, and if he is available in that format, pick him up now. Bailey was Tavon Austin's college teammate at West Virginia, and the Rams selected both players in the 2013 draft. Like Austin, Bailey doesn't have great size, but he is much more of a traditional wide receiver than his teammate. He is a very good route runner and is quickly getting more opportunities in St. Louis' offense. Bailey's seven catches were four more than any other Rams pass-catcher on Sunday. Still young, Bailey is already a high-quality football player, but it's difficult to forecast the Rams' wide receiving situation at this point.
i

<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
Moncrief
</center>

Donte Moncrief, WR, Indianapolis Colts
Considering how unbelievable this rookie class of wide receivers has been, what Moncrief can become has not been overly publicized (compared with his rookie peers). The Colts have been playing Hakeem Nicks far too much. When Moncrief has gotten the chance, as he did Sunday, he showed why he is already the more potent player of the two. He has great size (6-foot-2) and speed, and his role looks to be growing in one of the best offenses in the league that has very little at the running back position. That can be a winning combination for your fantasy team.
Others to consider: Alfred Blue, Kenny Britt, Jared Cook, Coby Fleener, Andrew Hawkins, Theo Riddick, Mychal Rivera, Mark Sanchez, Charles Sims, Kenny Stills, Michael Vick

10-team leagues
i

<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
Murray
</center>

Latavius Murray, RB, Oakland Raiders
I mentioned Murray as a recommended pickup for larger leagues in last week's column, but that was before his Thursday night performance in Kansas City. Murray suffered a concussion against the Chiefs, but he does have an extra long week to recover. As I mentioned last week, Murray is a young player whom Oakland needs to get on the field and evaluate. He flashed in a big way against the Chiefs and clearly has a very intriguing combination of size and speed. It should be noted, though, that the Raiders face a brutal stretch of run defenses the rest of the season.
Others to consider: Martavis Bryant, Brandon LaFell, Jarvis Landry, Tre Mason, Jordan Reed,Ryan Tannehill
[h=3]Dynasty[/h]
i

<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
Herron
</center>

Daniel Herron, RB, Indianapolis Colts
Ahmad Bradshaw is out and Trent Richardson has been a disappointment in the NFL, which leaves Herron as the best option in the Colts' backfield. While Richardson will still get some carries, Herron was impressive Sunday with 65 yards on 12 carries (basically a 50-50 split with Richardson) to go along with 5 receptions. He now has Bradshaw's role, and the Colts have some favorable matchups down the stretch. There is still a good chance Herron is available in dynasty formats, but it would also be a shock if Indianapolis didn't address the running back position in some fashion this offseason.
i

<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
Wright
</center>

Tim Wright, TE, New England Patriots
Wright caught two touchdown passes in the Patriots' lopsided victory over the Lions, and he has proven to be quite capable near the goal line, scoring in five of his past seven games. But Wright also caught five passes on the day. At this point, I want any part of New England's offense I can get for the long term. Wright hasn't been on the Patriots a very long time, but it's clear he already has a major role when the matchup is right. He and Brady should get even more comfortable with each other going forward, and considering Rob Gronkowski's injury history, it wouldn't be surprising if Wright had some stretches where he was the top tight end on the depth chart over his career. As mentioned above, when the Patriots are very run-heavy with their game plan, Wright's fantasy value will be greatly reduced. But he's definitely worth adding in dynasty because of his potential long-term value.
Others to consider: Joe Banyard, Jaron Brown, Gavin Escobar, C.J. Fiedorowicz, Crockett Gillmore, Charles Johnson, Zach Mettenberger, Preston Parker, De'Anthony Thomas, Juwan Thompson, Corey Washington, Luke Willson, Marquess Wilson
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
140,720
Tokens
[h=1]Sneaky advice for fantasy playoffs[/h][h=3]Tabbing the next breakout RB, undervalued wire targets and D/STs to stream[/h]
By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider

One of the toughest tasks facing fantasy football owners this time of year is adding starting-caliber talent to a roster. Between the expiration of the trade deadline, limited waiver-wire picks and other owners aiming to stockpile potentially helpful players, the options available to upgrade a club can be limited.
This week's edition of Fantasy Foresight aims to assist with this by offering sneaky ways fantasy owners can make their teams better heading into the playoffs.
It will also include players whose Week 12 successes will continue this season, players whose performance in Week 12 will not serve as a barometer for the future, and three waiver-wire candidates heading into Week 13.

[h=3]Find the next breakout running back[/h]<offer></offer>
i


Daniel Herron, RB, Indianapolis Colts (owned in 15.1 percent of ESPN leagues)
No ball carrier is apt to find a situation that leads to 44 points (as Jonas Gray scored in Week 11), but Herron could definitely find his way into double-digit territory the rest of the season.
Don't be fooled by Herron's pedestrian total of seven fantasy points in Week 12. He is in line to take over the Ahmad Bradshaw role in this offense. Prior to breaking his fibula in Week 11, Bradshaw made a habit of turning a relatively small workload volume (fewer than 10 carries in five of his first nine games) into double-digit points (six games with 10 or more fantasy points).
Herron mimicked this type of performance on the ground in Week 12. He got very little in the way of help from the Colts' run-blocking wall (a pedestrian 33 percent total in the good blocking rate metric) but racked up an impressive 10.3-yard total in the good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric. This latter number is most important, as it illustrates that Herron can maximize whatever good blocking opportunities are given to him.
Those opportunities should be plentiful down the stretch, as Indianapolis has green-rated run defenses (green indicating a favorable matchup) on its schedule in Weeks 14, 16 and 17. Add in Herron's notable pass-catching skills (five receptions against the Jaguars) and it is a recipe for double-digit point potential.

[h=3]Identify undervalued waiver-wire talents[/h]No matter how much the waiver wire is scoured, there always seem to be a couple of potential high-value players who end up not being claimed in anywhere near as many leagues as they should. Here are two candidates who fit that bill:
i


Rueben Randle, WR, New York Giants (owned in 35.2 percent of ESPN leagues)
Randle's case is one where target volume hasn't equaled fantasy value. According to ESPN Stats & Info, he currently ranks 13th among wide receivers in targets (96) and is tied for 15th in vertical targets (41 passes thrown to him that traveled 11 or more yards through the air). Despite these opportunities, Randle is tied for 58th among wide receivers in fantasy points per game (5.6) and is tied for 48th in points per game in PPR leagues (10.4).
What could vault Randle into highly valued fantasy territory is a set of green-rated matchups during the next four weeks, as he is due to face that caliber of cornerback in every contest. Given how Odell Beckham Jr. is making the kinds of catches that become Internet memes (#ThingsOdellCouldCatch), Randle is apt to see a lot of single coverage that allows him to take full advantage of these matchups.
i


Andrew Hawkins, WR, Cleveland Browns (owned in 44.6 percent of ESPN leagues)
Hawkins has been on a roll of late, as he is one of only 13 wide receivers to tally four or more games with nine or more fantasy points since Week 7. For the season, he ranks as a borderline WR3 in PPR leagues (12.7 points per game, ranked 32nd), and he kept this pace up (five receptions for 93 yards) even after Josh Gordonreturned to the lineup in Week 12. Hawkins is the type of player who may not win games, but his consistent production will almost assure a quality point total in the event a starting wide receiver is out of the lineup for any reason.

[h=3]Think ahead when it comes to streaming D/STs[/h]At this point of the season, it is becoming clear which offenses are going to offer opposing D/ST candidates high-end fantasy point value each week.
This allows fantasy owners willing to dedicate bench spots to D/STs to stockpile double-digit candidates.
Here are the top contenders for each remaining week, with the opponent noted in parentheses.
• Week 13: New York Giants (Jacksonville), Cincinnati (Tampa Bay), Indianapolis (Washington), St. Louis (Oakland)
• Week 14: Houston (Jacksonville), St. Louis (Washington), New York Jets (Minnesota)
• Week 15: Baltimore (Jacksonville), Carolina (Tampa Bay), New York Giants (Washington)
• Week 16: Tennessee (Jacksonville), St. Louis (New York Giants)
• Week 17: Houston (Jacksonville), Dallas (Washington), Chicago (Minnesota)

[h=3]Week 12 performances that will continue[/h]
i


Odell Beckham Jr., WR, New York Giants
After making one of the greatest catches in NFL history and posting nine or more fantasy points in six of his seven starts this year, it might seem obvious that Beckham is going to continue at this pace.
Obvious or not, it evidently wasn't fully clear coming into this past week. Beckham Jr. was owned in only 75 percent of ESPN leagues and was started in only 54.6 percent of those leagues. Both of those totals should move up to the 100 percent mark as soon as possible.
i


Trent Richardson, RB, Indianapolis Colts
Herron's presence may prevent Richardson from taking on a true bell-cow role in Indy, but the aforementioned highly favorable run-defense matchups the Colts have on the rest of their schedule should allow Richardson to continue contending for double-digit point totals.

[h=3]Week 12 performances that won't continue[/h]
i


Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago Bears
Cutler began the season by posting 16 or more fantasy points in each of his first six starts. In the next five games, he reached or exceeded that mark only twice and scored eight or fewer points in his other three starts.
One major reason for the drop-off is a lack of production in the vertical passing game. Since Week 7, Cutler has averaged 9.4 yards per attempt on vertical passes, a mark that is tied for 26th among qualifying quarterbacks.
The Bears' schedule suggests this vertical YPA number should increase during the last five weeks of the season. All four teams Chicago is due to face (Detroit twice, Dallas, New Orleans and Minnesota) rank 16th or worse in vertical YPA allowed since Week 7.
i


Ryan Mathews, RB, San Diego Chargers
Mathews' fantasy owners have to feel better about keeping him after he racked up 16 points against St. Louis.
However, that positive sentiment may not last long, as San Diego faces three red-rated defenses (red indicating an unfavorable matchup) the next four weeks. Plus, Mathews is once again showing some durability concerns -- he temporarily left the Rams contest with a shoulder ailment -- so the likelihood is that the St. Louis contest will be the high-water mark of his return.
i


Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions
Johnson's numbers during the past two games have hardly been worthy of the name "Megatron," as he is coming off consecutive contests with five fantasy points. Before chalking that up to issues with the Detroit offense or injury rust for Johnson, consider that the Lions' past two games have been at Arizona and at New England. The Cardinals may have the best defense in the NFL, and a case can be made that the Patriots have the most talented secondary in the league.
The Lions' next four opponents (Chicago twice, Tampa Bay and Minnesota) are among the worst defenses in the NFL, so look for Johnson to return to posting numbers that will live up to his nickname.

[h=3]Three waiver-wire pickups to make this week[/h]
i


Jarvis Landry, WR, Miami Dolphins (owned in 11.2 percent of ESPN leagues)
Landry is too far behind to keep up with his fellow rookie wide receivers in the Offensive Rookie of the Year category, but since Week 9, he has been tied for 21st in points per game among wide receivers (10).

i


Zach Mettenberger, QB, Tennessee Titans (owned in 4.1 percent of ESPN leagues)
One key item to remember about Mettenberger is that he worked in Cam Cameron's pro-style passing offense at LSU. That schematic experience is part of the reason he has acclimated fairly quickly in his four starts and has posted 15 or more fantasy points in three of those contests.
i


Theo Riddick, RB, Detroit Lions (owned in 8.0 percent of ESPN leagues)
This may be a long-shot pick, but given Reggie Bush's difficulties in returning from his ankle injury, Riddick may be only one injury to Joique Bell away from becoming the lead back in the Lions' backfield.
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
140,720
Tokens
[h=1]Fantasy notes on all Week 13 teams[/h][h=3]Our NFL reporters offer Week 13 fantasy intel from inside each locker room[/h]
By NFL Nation Reporters | ESPN Insider

ESPN Insider has planted spies in every NFL locker room -- OK, so they're our 32 NFL Nation team reporters -- in order to provide fantasy owners with inside intel to help you win your league. We call it Insider Trading, a collection of fantasy lineup advice pulled straight from the locker rooms and practice fields of every team.
Our Week 13 edition will help owners set their lineups in all formats by bringing you key Insider info, such as why Rashad Jennings is a good play, which RB corps to stay away from and what to expect from A.J. Green.
Check back every week for info that will help you set your lineups. In the meantime, here is our NFL Nation reporters' fantasy advice, covering every team.

[h=3]NFC West[/h]
sea.gif

Seahawks: Watch out for Kearse
Marshawn Lynch is an obvious choice every week now, rushing for over 100 yards again Thursday night. But the receiver who is becoming more of a target for Russell Wilson is Jermaine Kearse. Kearse has been targeted 16 times in the past three games, and made nine catches. Kearse had three catches for 34 yards Thursday, but he is the guy Wilson throws to on deep sideline routes. -- Terry Blount

stl.gif

Rams: Bailey could be bigger factor in offense<offer>
After receiver Kenny Britt's big day against Denver, the Chargers worked to take him away last week. That opened up more opportunities for Stedman Bailey to emerge as the No. 2 receiver. Shaun Hill targeted Bailey nine times, three times as many as he'd been thrown to in any game this season. Bailey took advantage with seven catches for 89 yards and a touchdown. Jeff Fisher said Monday that Bailey has settled into a more consistent role, which could make him a sneaky play when teams try to take away Britt. -- Nick Wagoner</offer>

sfo.gif

49ers: Baton may be ready to be passed to Hyde
Not a lot to be gleaned from the steaming pile remaining from the 49ers' 19-3 loss to the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday night, especially when no Niners player scored more than four fantasy points and QB Colin Kaepernick had a career-low one fantasy point, the first time this season he's had fewer than 10. But rookie running back Carlos Hyde does seem ready to take the baton from Frank Gore, averaging a yard per carry better than the 10th-year veteran (3.8-2.8), in half the carries (10-5). -- Paul Gutierrez

ari.gif

Cardinals: Brown continues to be a good option
With Larry Fitzgerald's status for Sunday still unknown, the surest bet on the Cardinals is wide receiver John Brown. The rookie is starting to come into his own as more than a speedy receiver who burns rubber off the line of scrimmage. He's averaging 67.7 yards per game and 4.3 catches in his past three games, and has displayed skill with two toe-tapping catches in Seattle. -- Josh Weinfuss


[h=3]NFC East[/h]
dal.gif

Cowboys: Romo must play better for Dallas offense to click
As Tony Romo goes, so goes the Cowboys offense. With the rematch against the Eagles coming Dec. 14, Romo will have to produce more than he did Thursday when he threw for 199 yards and was intercepted twice. In 13 starts against the Eagles, Romo has four games with fewer than 200 yards passing, plus three more with 203, 209 and 214 yards passing. In the other six starts he has had more than 300 yards with 13 touchdown passes and six interceptions. Three of those contests have come at Lincoln Financial Field. -- Todd Archer

nyg.gif

Giants: Heavy workload coming for Jennings
The Giants' beleaguered offensive line and Jacksonville's potent rush could mean that tight end Larry Donnell and running back Rashad Jennings will be called upon to block more than usual. But don't worry about it affecting Jennings' production. If anything, the Jags' pass rush could keep him on the field more. He's also a factor in the passing game, so he's especially useful in PPR leagues. Don't hesitate to use Jennings in a solid matchup. He shared some carries with Andre Williams last week, but the Giants ran 74 offensive plays last week, so there's more than enough to go around. -- Dan Graziano

was.gif

Redskins: Morris should get plenty of touches
The Redskins anticipate the Colts bringing a lot of pressure with a variety of blitzes and looks. The Redskins want to counter with Alfred Morris, who is averaging 5.22 yards per carry the past three weeks. Indianapolis struggles in this area (4.6 yards allowed per carry), or has in some games. But the Redskins will still test them on the ground with Morris. One player said when a team runs that many blitzes, it can leave them vulnerable against the run. Look for the Redskins to try to help quarterback Colt McCoy by using Morris quite a bit. -- John Keim

phi.gif

Eagles: Maclin gets back in the mix
Jeremy Maclin rebounded for a big game (eight catches, 108 yards) in Dallas while rookie wide receiver Jordan Matthews (four catches, 51 yards, a touchdown) continued to thrive with Mark Sanchez playing quarterback. Sanchez hit Matthews 18 times for 322 yards and three touchdowns over the previous three weeks, while Maclin failed to crack 100 yards. That was partly because Sanchez wasn't throwing as many deep balls as Nick Foles did. But by reconnecting with Maclin on Thanksgiving, Sanchez made defensive coordinators' jobs harder while making fantasy owners happy. -- Phil Sheridan


[h=3]NFC North[/h]
gnb.gif

Packers: Could be Adams' time to shine
This is shaping up to be a big opportunity for rookie receiver Davante Adams. Here's why: Aaron Rodgers might be forced to look his way often Sunday against the Patriots, who likely will try to blanket Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb with their two best cover men -- Brandon Browner and Darrelle Revis. That could leave Adams with the most favorable matchup this week. Rodgers always says he throws to the open guy, and Adams, who has only four catches combined in the past three games after his seven-catch game against the Saints, might have the best chance of being that guy against New England. -- Rob Demovsky

chi.gif

Bears: Big things ahead for Bennett
Bears receivers Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery have combined for five 100-yard receiving performances through 12 games, but as opponents begin keying more on the outside duo, tight end Martellus Bennett has become more of a focal point of the offense. Bennett put together the second 100-yard receiving game of his career against theDetroit Lions, hauling in eight balls for 109 yards. Although he's scored just five touchdowns (which ties a career high), look for that number to grow because the tight end is becoming increasingly more dangerous gaining yards after catch. With four games remaining, Bennett is already just 22 yards and 12 grabs away from tying career highs for yardage (759 in 2013) and receptions (65 in 2013). -- Michael C. Wright

det.gif

Lions: Bell pushing for potential lead back role
Reggie Bush was sidelined for the third consecutive game for the Lions on Thursday, but once again Joique Bell took the carries and advantage of the situation. It might not be a coincidence, either, that the Lions' run game has produced two of its better season totals focusing on one back. Bell had 91 yards on 23 carries against the Bears and has averaged four yards per carry or more in three of his past four games. If the Lions are to have any consistent run game this season, it will be with Bell, who is more of a downhill runner than Bush or Theo Riddick, who act as much as receivers as true running backs. -- Michael Rothstein

min.gif

Vikings: Johnson becoming good WR option
As Cordarrelle Patterson continues to struggle in his second season as an NFL receiver, the Vikings have effectively turned his starting spot over to Charles Johnson. The former Cleveland Browns receiver is playing ahead of Patterson in the Vikings' two-receiver sets, and has been targeted with more passes than any other Vikings player the past two weeks. Coaches have been encouraged with Johnson's progress after joining the team in September, and believe he is developing some chemistry with quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. As the Vikings head into Sunday's game against Carolina, Johnson again figures to be a significant part of their offense as a receiver. -- Ben Goessling


[h=3]NFC South[/h]
nor.gif

Saints: Ingram is still No. 1 back
Don't be misled by the fact that Mark Ingram had only 11 carries and Pierre Thomasfive last week. That was more about Baltimore's stifling run front and the fact that Thomas was on the field a lot more in pass sets. The Saints also went to Ingram four times near the goal line (three runs and one pass), but got stuffed every time. Although Ingram's touches could dip whenever Khiry Robinson comes back from his arm injury, Ingram should continue to be used as a true No. 1 running back as long as it's just him and Thomas splitting carries. -- Mike Triplett

atl.gif

Falcons: Atlanta's RBs a bad play Sunday
Anyone considering starting Steven Jackson or any other Falcons running back should bench them this week. The Arizona Cardinals boast the league's third-best rushing defense and have allowed just five rushing touchdowns this season, which is tied for second best in the league behind Kansas City (two). Last week, the Cardinals limited Marshawn Lynch to 39 yards on 15 carries, and no one on the Falcons compares to Lynch right now. -- Vaughn McClure

tam.gif

Buccaneers: Stay away from Tampa's RB rotation
Running backs Doug Martin, Charles Sims and Bobby Rainey each played about one third of the snaps last week, and the coaching staff has implied the running backs will continue to be used in a similar fashion. It's best to stay away from any Tampa Bay running back with the carries being divided. -- Pat Yasinskas

car.gif

Panthers: No concern over Benjamin's catch rate
Wide receivers coach Ricky Proehl told me he isn't concerned that the percentage of catches to targets for Kelvin Benjamin hasn't been great. He said the goal remains to feed the rookie receiver the ball. Benjamin has been targeted 30 times the past three games, and that trend should continue against Minnesota. He's clearly the No. 1 target for Cam Newton, particularly near the goal line with a team-best eight touchdowns. -- David Newton


[h=3]AFC West[/h]
den.gif

Broncos: Anderson should be productive Sunday
When Denver is more committed to the run, quarterback Peyton Manning plays better and the offense puts up more points. The Broncos' three highest-scoring games this season have been when they have had their highest number of run plays out of their three-wide receiver set with Manning in the shotgun or pistol -- against Arizona, Oakland and last Sunday's win over the Dolphins. The light has gone on, the commitment is there and C.J. Anderson should once again be a productive play. -- Jeff Legwold

kan.gif

Chiefs: K.C. trying to get Kelce involved
Tight end Travis Kelce's production has dropped in recent weeks as opponents have worked on eliminating him as a threat. That doesn't mean you should give up on him from a fantasy perspective, though, as the Chiefs haven't given up on him from a football perspective. I'm told they've continued to scheme for ways to get Kelce the ball. Kelce has been the receiver on 10 of the Chiefs' 27 pass plays of 20 yards or more this season. -- Adam Teicher

oak.gif

Raiders: Don't sleep on Holmes
James Jones leads the Raiders in just about every receiving category and has been a favorite receiver of rookie quarterback Derek Carr, but don't sleep on Andre Holmes, either. The 6-foot-4, 210-pounder is averaging a team-leading 14.8 yards per catch and has been targeted 16 times over the past two games, including 10 last week against the Chiefs. -- Mike Wagaman

sdg.gif

Chargers: Rivers poised for a big game
Facing a stout Baltimore defensive front that gives up just 88 rushing yards a game, look for Philip Rivers to try to move the ball through the air. The Ravens allowed Drew Brees to throw for nearly 400 yards in a close win at New Orleans last week, and have allowed more than 300 passing yards three other times this season. After a midseason swoon, Rivers returned to his accurate ways with a 291-yard, 83 percent completion percentage passing performance in a win over St. Louis last week. -- Eric Williams


[h=3]AFC East[/h]
buf.gif

Bills: Woods could see increased targets vs. Browns
At this point, Sammy Watkins is the only player still significantly on the fantasy radar for the Bills, although Robert Woods crept back onto it with an eight-catch, 110-yard outing against the Jets. Woods injured his ankle, however, and was listed as limited on the injury report. Word from Doug Marrone is that Woods will be good to go Sunday against the Browns. How much attention will Watkins receive from the Browns' defense? If the Browns make like the Jets -- who run virtually the same system -- and try to take Watkins out of the game, Woods should have opportunities again. -- Mike Rodak

mia.gif

Dolphins: Landry emerging as red zone threat
One player emerging as a red zone threat is rookie receiver Jarvis Landry. The second-round pick had a team-high seven receptions for 50 yards and a pair of red zone touchdowns against the Broncos. Landry has three touchdowns in his past two games. He isn't an explosive receiver who will get fantasy owners a lot of yards, but Landry has the best hands on the team and is developing a growing trust with quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who is looking to Landry more in tight spots. Landry could be worth a play in three-receiver leagues, especially with Miami (6-5) playing the lowly New York Jets (2-9) in Week 13. -- James Walker

nwe.gif

Patriots: Look for split backfield for New England
Players are expecting the power running game to be a bigger part of the game plan this week, which highlights LeGarrette Blount and Jonas Gray. While no one knows for sure, the feeling is the two will likely split carries, unless one gets hot and there is an in-game switch to keep feeding the most productive option. In the past, the Patriots have gone on a series-by-series basis when rotating their backs -- giving the first series to one back, the second series to the next back, and then continuing with that divide throughout the game. -- Mike Reiss

nyj.gif

Jets: Best to avoid any offensive players
The smart play is to stay away from anyone on the Jets. The offense is in a funk and faces a top defense in the Miami Dolphins. Don't expect Geno Smith, back in the starting role, to provide a spark. They had some success last season against the Dolphins with Smith outside the pocket running. They will try to establish that dimension, hoping it opens up other aspects of the offense. -- James Walker


[h=3]AFC North[/h]
bal.gif

Ravens: Don't expect big plays from Torrey Smith
Over his past three games, Torrey Smith has averaged 78.6 yards receiving and has scored two touchdowns. But don't expect that hot streak to continue Sunday. The Chargers have allowed only four completions on passes more than 30 yards this season and have held quarterbacks to an 18.2 percent completion rate (4-of-22) on such passes, sixth best in the NFL. Half of Smith's touchdowns have come on throws of 30 yards or longer. -- Jamison Hensley

cle.gif

Browns: Gordon will continue to produce
Josh Gordon was on a "pitch count" in his first game back and still led the team's receivers in plays, catches and yards. An "average" game for Gordon turned out to be 120 yards, which is just about what he averaged per game last season, when he had 117 yards a contest. Brian Hoyer already has proved that his tightly-spun spiral is not affected greatly by the wind, which likely will be on display in Buffalo. To think that Gordon will have an off game is to discount his talent. He's a must-play every week the rest of the season, although it won't be easy against the Bills, who have the league's fifth-best pass defense. -- Pat McManamon

cin.gif

Bengals: Green picking it up lately
A.J. Green told me after last Sunday's breakout game at Houston that his previously injured right big toe hasn't caused him any pain the past two weeks. In his first two games back from resting the toe, Green caught just six passes for 67 yards and converted four first downs. In the two games since -- the ones he has felt healthier -- he's caught 18 passes for 248 yards and converted 14 first downs. Cincinnati's offense has moved the ball with him in the game lately, as it faces the 22nd-ranked passing defense Sunday at Tampa Bay. One issue to watch if you play Green: He has only four touchdowns this season. -- Coley Harvey

pit.gif

Steelers: Bell is a must-start
Running back Le'Veon Bell is a must-start against a New Orleans defense that has given up an average of 200.5 rushing yards in its past two games. But don't necessarily shy away from quarterback Ben Roethlisberger even though the Saints figure to get a heavy dose of Bell. Eighteen of Roethlisberger's 24 touchdown passes have come at Heinz Field and the Saints are allowing 253 passing yards per game and have just two sacks in their past two contests. Sit Roethlisberger only for an elite fantasy quarterback this week. -- Scott Brown


[h=3]AFC South[/h]
hou.gif

Texans: Foster could have big return
Texans running back Arian Foster has been dynamic when healthy, and there's a good chance he'll be healthy this week against the Titans after recovering from a groin injury. Rather than rush him back as they did earlier in the season when he had a hamstring pull, Foster has had three weekends off, which should get him as close to 100 percent as an NFL player can be late in the season. Texans coach Bill O'Brien said Foster looked good at practice Wednesday. -- Tania Ganguli

ind.gif

Colts: Herron's role increasing
Trent Richardson's days as the Colts' starting running back could be numbered. Daniel "Boom" Herron started over Richardson against Jacksonville and it is likely to stay that way. Herron played nine fewer snaps than Richardson and still gained 16 more yards on the ground and 31 more yards receiving than him. Herron's big-play ability is what entices the Colts. Several players said Herron simply needs to get more snaps for him to have one of those big runs. -- Mike Wells

jac.gif

Jaguars: Lewis should get more opportunities
Last Sunday's game was the first time tight end Marcedes Lewis and rookie quarterbackBlake Bortles have been in the lineup together, and Lewis told me he expects to get more opportunities as Bortles grows more comfortable with him. Lewis said it will take a bit for Bortles to learn where he likes the ball on fades (not shoulder high, which is where Bortles put one against the Colts) and to trust him to make plays on 50-50 balls. Still, the Jaguars have few experienced options in the passing game -- and Lewis is one of them -- so it'd be surprising if he didn't get more than three targets against the Giants. -- Mike DiRocco

ten.gif

Titans: O-line injuries could cause offensive issues
Starting center Brian Schwenke is out for the season with a torn MCL in his left knee and starting left tackle Taylor Lewan is dealing with a high ankle sprain. The Titans are going to have a patchwork line in Houston and J.J. Watt had two sacks in the first matchup. Quarterback Zach Mettenberger could face an onslaught and running back Bishop Sankey is unlikely to get things going behind the Titans line against this front. -- Paul Kuharsky
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
140,720
Tokens
[h=1]32 fantasy tips to win in Week 14[/h][h=3]How to value C.J. Anderson, Donte Moncrief and others in the weeks ahead[/h]
By Mike Clay | Pro Football Focus

Below are 32 notes covering each of the league's 32 teams. Use these tidbits to make the best waiver-wire, trade and lineup decisions this week. Be sure to check back each week of the season for a new version of the Fantasy 32.
(Note: I've written at length about opportunity-adjusted touchdowns (OTD) in the past. If you're new to the stat, be sure to check out our introduction to rushing and receiving OTD. The OTD metric weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity.)


1. During the past four weeks, C.J. Anderson paces all running backs in fantasy points. That's despite the fact that the 2013 undrafted free agent has but one rushing score during the span. Anderson is averaging a massive 5.6 yards per carry and has caught 18 of 21 targets for 204 yards. He's handled 70 percent of the team's designed runs (workhorse usage) and a generous 13 percent of the targets. Ronnie Hillman and Montee Ball are expected to return from injury in the coming weeks, but Anderson is playing too well to lose much, if any, work. He's a safe RB1 play.


2. Last week, I told you Donte Moncrief was the next breakout rookie receiver and that he should be owned in all 12-team leagues. He answered the call Sunday, racking up 134 yards and a pair of touchdowns. This week, however, I'm telling you that Moncrief is not yet a recommended weekly play. The rookie did his Week 13 damage on 16 pass routes and four targets. That's not nearly enough to allow WR3 production. The good news is that Moncrief has clearly moved ahead of Hakeem Nicks on the Indianapolis Colts' depth chart. He'll be a boom/bust WR4 until his snap count rises.




3. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for six touchdowns Sunday, which is incredible when you consider that the Houston Texans entered the week with 13 passing touchdowns in 11 games and that the Tennessee Titans defense had allowed a total of six passing scores in its past six games. The message here is simple: Ryan Fitzpatrick remains well off the QB1 radar. Fitzpatrick isn't particularly good, the Texans operate a below-average offense and they run the ball as much as possible. They actually called more runs than passes Sunday, and figure to do so again against the Jacksonville Jaguars this week. Leave Fitzpatrick on waivers.


4. In two games since Brandin Cooks went on injured reserve, Kenny Stills has 13 catches, 260 yards and one touchdown on 15 targets. He sits seventh in fantasy points among wide receivers during the span. Stills has been extremely efficient since entering the league last season, but playing time has not allowed consistent production. Consider that he played fewer than half of the New Orleans Saints' offensive snaps Sunday. Stills will see enough of the field in a highly-productive offense to warrant WR3 consideration, but he remains a high-risk/high-reward play.


5. After failing to find the end zone during the San Diego Chargers' first seven games, Keenan Allen has four touchdowns in his past five appearances. He sits eighth in fantasy points among wide receivers during that span, and only six wideouts have more receptions than Allen this season. Philip Rivers' favorite target has managed one touchdown on five end zone targets this season. He caught 6-of-14 as a rookie last season. Allen's low average depth of target (9.0) and criminal underuse at the goal line limit him a bit, but one of the league's top quarterbacks is targeting him 27 percent of the time. Even with a very tough schedule on the horizon, Allen is a back-end WR2.


6. Torrey Smith's 2014 season got off to a slow start (six receptions, 85 yards and zero scores through three weeks), but he has been one of the league's hottest receivers since Week 6. During that seven-game span, Smith has seven touchdowns, including at least one in five of the games, and is 13th in fantasy points among wide receivers. Smith's scoring pace is obviously unsustainable (he's 6-of-11 on end zone targets), but he's seeing a huge chunk of the targets in a Baltimore Ravens offense that has been much improved under Gary Kubiak. Smith is a borderline WR2 option the rest of the way.

7. Drew Stanton has played a majority of the Arizona Cardinals' snaps in six games this season. Arizona's offense has eight touchdowns in those games. For perspective, 1.3 offensive scores per game would be worst in the league this season. The last-place Jaguars, New York Jets and Oakland Raiders are averaging 1.6 per game. Note that in the six games in which Carson Palmer played most or all of the snaps, the offense scored 16 times (or 2.7 per game). The Cardinals may not have any choice but to give 2014 fourth-round pick Logan Thomas a look in the near future. Either way, Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown and Michael Floyd should not be in starting lineups, especially with Arizona facing a brutal schedule the rest of the way.


8. When it comes to Bill Belichick, you just really never know what to expect. Entering Week 13, many assumed LeGarrette Blount and Jonas Gray would split a majority of the New England Patriots' carries. Instead, it was Brandon Bolden who was second in line for carries behind Blount. Bolden had totaled three carries in the previous five weeks before playing seven snaps against the Green Bay Packers. Gray has played a grand total of two snaps since scoring four times back in Week 11. Shane Vereen and Blount will both be on the RB2 radar in San Diego this week. Leave Gray on your bench and Bolden on waivers.


9. I've mentioned Stedman Bailey more than once this season, but this is the first time he's truly in the WR3 conversation. Bailey easily leads the St. Louis Rams with 15 targets during the past two weeks, which is the total number that Kenny Britt and Tavon Austin have seen. Bailey converted the targets into 12 receptions, 189 yards and a touchdown, which ranks him 17th in fantasy points among wide receivers during the stretch. Bailey -- a third-round pick last season -- is clearly emerging, but keep in mind that he's still playing fewer snaps than both Britt and Austin. Also, St. Louis scored six touchdowns against Oakland on Sunday after totaling seven during its previous five games.


10. In two games since Allen Robinson went down for the season, Marqise Lee has easily been Jacksonville's most-productive fantasy wideout. Lee paces the team with 12 targets, nine receptions, 127 yards and a touchdown during the two-game stretch. The rookie remains behind Cecil Shorts III and Allen Hurns on the depth chart, but he's only a handful of pass routes off their pace. Of course, Jacksonville's offense isn't very good (tied for last in touchdowns), which severely limits Lee's fantasy appeal. He's only worth owning in 16-team leagues.


11. Davante Adams was targeted a career-high 10 times against New England on Sunday, but note that he had seen a total of eight targets in the team's previous three games. The rookie has a ton of talent, but he remains third in line for targets in an offense that relies heavily on Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb (who have combined for 53 percent of the team's targets this season). Despite the 121-yard effort, Adams is best viewed as a WR5.


12. Three quarters of the way through the 2014 regular season, the San Francisco 49ers offense has 22 touchdowns in 12 games. That works out to 1.8 per game, which is the league's sixth-worst mark. Anquan Boldin's recent surge has him 23rd in fantasy points among wide receivers, but he's the only decent weekly play in this offense. Frank Gore's 181 carries are eighth most in the league, but he has scored three total touchdowns and does little as a receiver. Michael Crabtree sits 41st at wide receiver and 31 tight ends have more fantasy points than Vernon Davis. Colin Kaepernick is on the QB1 radar only because of his 347 rushing yards (second at the position). The 49ers have a great matchup against Oakland this week, but this is obviously an offense worth avoiding where possible.


13. After seeing one-third of the Buffalo Bills' targets in both Weeks 7 and 8, Sammy Watkins sits at 20 percent in Buffalo's past four games. He trails Robert Woods by three for the team lead in targets during the span. As concerning as it is that Watkins hasn't eclipsed 35 receiving yards or scored a touchdown since Week 8, his schedule certainly hasn't been easy. During the four-game stretch, he faced the Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Jets (the exception) and Cleveland Browns. With Denver, Green Bay and Oakland due up in the next three weeks, Watkins remains a borderline WR2 and elite dynasty prospect.


14. The average NFL quarterback directs 12 percent of his passes to an in-line tight end. Colt McCoy's career mark in the category is a hefty 19.7 percent. It's for this exact reason that Jordan Reed's fantasy value gets a solid bump with McCoy under center in Washington. In McCoy's two full games this season, Reed has been the target 18 times despite running fewer than 60 percent of possible pass routes. He's caught 16 of the targets for 163 yards and is sixth in fantasy points among tight ends during those two weeks. Reed lines up all over the field -- not just as an in-line tight end -- but it's clear that McCoy likes going his direction. Reed is a back-end TE1 the rest of the way.

15. Giovani Bernard has now appeared in two games since returning from a hip injury, which gives us a better idea as to how the Cincinnati Bengals will utilize their backfield going forward. Bernard has played 12 more snaps than Jeremy Hill, but he's seen fewer carries (27 to 31) and targets (4 to 5). Bernard remains the primary back on passing downs, but note that after seeing 14 targets during Weeks 1 and 2, he's totaled 21 in seven games since. Going forward, Hill is a decent RB2, while Bernard is a best viewed as a flex option.
16. Doug Martin has retaken the role of lead back for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Martin carried the ball 18 times for 58 yards and a touchdown on 31 snaps against Cincinnati on Sunday. Charles Sims carried the ball or was targeted on nine of his 15 snaps. The Buccaneers called pass on all but one of Bobby Rainey's 11 snaps. As usual, the backs struggled on the ground, combining for 75 yards on 24 carries (3.1 YPC). They were much better as pass-catchers, however, hauling in all seven targets for 93 yards. None of these backs should be in your starting lineup, especially with the Detroit Lions on tap.
17. Kendall Wright scored his fifth touchdown of the season Sunday and racked up 132 receiving yards, which is the second-highest single-game total of his career. Wright now sits a respectable 28th among wide receivers in fantasy points this season, but he's been terribly inconsistent. The third-year slot man has two one-catch games and had failed to eclipse 70 receiving yards in a game prior to Sunday. With Justin Hunter (lacerated spleen) likely done for the season, Wright's target volume only figures to increase. Of course, he does most of his work underneath (9.0 average depth of target) and has seen three end zone targets (for perspective, 83 players have more). Couple that with Tennessee's underwhelming offensive production and Wright is a borderline WR3.
18. Has there been a changing of the guard at tight end in Kansas City? It sure seems like it. After playing no more than two-thirds of Kansas City's offensive snaps during the team's first nine games, Travis Kelce has been on the field for 91 percent in the past three. Anthony Fasanomissed one of those games, but he played only 16 of a possible 44 snaps Sunday. Unfortunately for Kelce owners, the boost in playing time hasn't helped his fantasy value. Since scoring in three consecutive games during Weeks 3-5, Kelce has found the end zone once in seven games. Kelce is a borderline TE1 option.
19. Larry Donnell's usage has been all over the place this season. After handling at least 21 percent of the targets in each of the New York Giants' first four games, he's hit that mark twice in their past eight. In fact, Donnell has seen three or fewer targets in three of those games. Week 13 (seven targets) provides some optimism for Donnell's rest-of-season outlook, but he's best viewed as a borderline TE1.
20. Filling in for an injured Roddy White on Sunday, Harry Douglas caught nine of 11 targets for 116 yards. During an eight-game stretch in which he operated as the Atlanta Falcons' No. 2 wideout last season, Douglas totaled 71 targets, which was 12th most among wide receivers. Atlanta isn't scoring much, but if White sits out again this week, Douglas will be heavily targeted and is thus well worth WR3 consideration.
21. In seven games since Percy Harvin was traded to New York, Jermaine Kearse has handled 19 percent of the Seattle Seahawks' targets. He's seen at least one quarter of the targets three of the past four weeks. The heavy usage hasn't converted into fantasy production, but it's important to note that the opportunity is here for a big game or two. Kearse's 13.0 average depth of target is easily highest on the team among regulars, and his eight end zone targets puts him five ahead of second-place Doug Baldwin. Seattle is likely to have to pass more than usual against the Philadelphia Eagles, 49ers and Cardinals the next three weeks. Kearse is a boom/bust WR3 sleeper.
22. The Dallas Cowboys scored one offensive touchdown against the Eagles, but note that they had scored at least two in 10 of their first 11 games. In fact, at 2.8, Dallas still sits seventh in the league in offensive touchdowns per game. DeMarco Murray, Dez Bryant and Jason Wittenshould never leave your starting lineup. With good matchups against the Chicago Bears, Eagles (he'll be much better the second time around) and Indianapolis Colts in the next three weeks,Tony Romo is a mid-pack QB1 going forward.


23. The Bears called 51 passes and eight runs against the Lions -- easily their pass-heaviest game of the season. Abandoning the run against Detroit's tough defense is a common strategy, but Chicago really took it to the extreme. Jay Cutler is unlikely to come anywhere close to 50 dropbacks the rest of the way, but he's a mid-pack QB1 option against Dallas and New Orleans the next two weeks. The Bears have scored only six rushing touchdowns this season, but Matt Fortestill sits atop the PPR leaderboard thanks to a position-high 89 targets, 78 receptions and 650 yards. He's obviously an elite weekly play.
24. Think Chip Kelly didn't rub off on Bill Lazor? Just take a look at how the coaches are utilizing rookie wide receivers Jordan Matthews and Jarvis Landry, respectively. Matthews has lined up in the slot 94 percent of the time. He's caught 54 of 77 targets for 690 yards and seven touchdowns. Landry lines up in the slot 80 percent of the time. He's hauled in 57 of 73 targets for 515 yards and five scores. What's most interesting here is that both players are all but glued to the slot. If Jeremy Maclin or Riley Cooper miss time, Brad Smith or Josh Huff would play outside. On Monday night, when Brian Hartline went down, Brandon Gibson filled in on the outside. Landry stayed in the slot and actually played fewer snaps than Gibson. Targets won't be an issue for either player, but neither is likely to sustain their current touchdown rate. Both are borderline WR3 options.
25. The Jets went Tim Tebow circa 2011-level run-heavy Monday night, calling 46 runs and 18 passes. It was a clear attempt to take the game out of Geno Smith's hands and keep the clock moving against a superior Dolphins club. Keep in mind, however, that game flow was very much in the Jets' favor in this game. They led a majority of the way, which allowed them to run the ball at will. That's unlikely to be the case much down the stretch, as three of the Jets' final four games are on the road, and the home game is against New England. The Jets will continue to lean on the run game as much as possible, but we probably just saw their run-heaviest game of the year. Eric Decker and Percy Harvin will be extremely risky plays, but there is still hope.
26. Miles Austin caught seven of nine targets for 86 yards in Week 13. Operating at Cleveland's No. 2 wide receiver, Austin has matched Andrew Hawkins in pass routes the past two weeks, but holds a 17-8 advantage in targets. Johnny Manziel's probable promotion may add some life to a Cleveland offense that has 11 passing scores in 12 games this season, but remember that this is a team very reliant on its running game. Josh Gordon is the only wide receiver who should be in starting lineups. Austin is a low-ceiling WR5.
27. Rod Streater is due back from injury in the next week or two and figures to return to his role as Oakland's No. 1 wideout. Of course, that doesn't necessarily make him an appealing fantasy play. The Raiders operate the league's pass-heaviest offense, but sit tied for last in offensive touchdowns and are 28th in offensive plays. Even worse, Oakland's remaining schedule includes San Francisco, Kansas City, Buffalo and Denver. Ouch! Latavius Murray is the only Oakland player who will sniff fantasy value the rest of the way.
28. Mike Tolbert returned from injury Sunday, which means DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart and Tolbert were all active for the first time since Week 1. Williams started, but played only 14 snaps. Stewart had the hot hand early and rode it to 12 carries and a pair of targets on 39 snaps. Tolbert played both tailback and fullback en route to two carries and two targets on 31 snaps. Stewart converted his busy day into 110 scrimmage yards, but this is not production we can count on most weeks. The Carolina Panthers rank 24th in offensive touchdowns and will continue to utilize a three-headed backfield committee. Stewart is not worth RB2 consideration.
29. During their past eight games, the Pittsburgh Steelers have scored 23 offensive touchdowns. Of course, 12 of those scores came in just two games. In fact, if we ignore the seemingly fluky pair of six-score games against Indianapolis and Baltimore, Pittsburgh is averaging an underwhelming 2.0 offensive touchdowns per game this season. Obviously, we can't completely discredit the two huge games, but it's worth noting that this team hasn't been great otherwise. With Cincinnati and Kansas City on the docket the next three weeks, Ben Roethlisberger is barely on the QB1 radar.
30. If Cordarrelle Patterson's fantasy value hasn't hit rock bottom yet, it's getting close. Albeit after a week in which he missed some practice time, Patterson was on the field for a season-low three offensive snaps against Carolina. Now fourth on the wide receiver depth chart in theMinnesota Vikings' struggling offense, Patterson isn't close to fantasy relevance. Just 23 years old and with ton of raw ability, however, he remains a strong buy-low target in dynasty.
31. Eric Ebron's usage has been noticeably consistent this season, but it simply hasn't converted into fantasy production. Ebron has seen exactly four targets in five of his past six games. He has either 22 or 23 receiving yards in each of his past four appearances. The snaps are there for the 10th overall pick in May's draft, but the Lions offense is struggling badly. Stash Ebron in two-tight end and, of course, dynasty leagues.
32. Chris Polk is playing a lot more often than you realize. After missing Weeks 1-7, the third-year, injury-plagued back is up to 78 snaps in six games this season. That may not seem like a ton, but it's allowed him 37 carries in an offense that also features LeSean McCoy (125 carries during the span) and Darren Sproles (13). Polk's 3.5 yards per carry leaves plenty to be desired, but he has looked better on tape and that's reflected in the 2.6 YPC he's averaging after contact. Polk looks the part, has size (5-foot-11, 222 pounds) and is McCoy's primary handcuff in a terrific offense. He's one of the top handcuffs in fantasy, but is not owned in most leagues.
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
140,720
Tokens
[h=1]Free-agent finds for Week 14[/h][h=3]Kenny Stills, Jordan Reed, Johnny Manziel among intriguing options[/h]
By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

Waiver-wire news changes throughout the week as injuries and depth-chart shenanigans overtake us. So be sure to follow me on Twitter by clicking on the link next to my headshot at the bottom of the column, and I'll keep you updated as news warrants.
Let's get to the best fantasy roster additions heading into Week 14:
Standard ESPN league finds
Kenny Stills, WR, New Orleans Saints (owned in 17.7 percent of ESPN leagues): I was on record as falling hard for rookie Brandin Cooks before he broke his thumb. So it stands to reason I also like Stills, though he was "only" on my speculative list last week. It's scary to trust any Saints receiver -- a pejorative that apparently now extends to Jimmy Graham -- but if I'm comparing Stills and Marques Colston right now, Stills wins. While Colston keeps committing weird drops (he had another one on an easy catch along the sideline Sunday, giving him six for the season, tied for second most in the NFL), Stills blew up for 162 yards receiving, giving him 260 since Cooks' injury. He doesn't have the open-field quicks of a Cooks, but Stills is every bit as straight-line fast. Don't treat him as a top-20 WR, but top 30? I could get behind that.


Waiver-wire news changes throughout the week as injuries and depth-chart shenanigans overtake us. So be sure to follow me on Twitter by clicking on the link next to my headshot at the bottom of the column, and I'll keep you updated as news warrants.


Let's get to the best fantasy roster additions heading into Week 14:


Standard ESPN league finds



Kenny Stills, WR, New Orleans Saints (owned in 17.7 percent of ESPN leagues): I was on record as falling hard for rookie Brandin Cooks before he broke his thumb. So it stands to reason I also like Stills, though he was "only" on my speculative list last week. It's scary to trust any Saints receiver -- a pejorative that apparently now extends to Jimmy Graham -- but if I'm comparing Stills and Marques Colston right now, Stills wins. While Colston keeps committing weird drops (he had another one on an easy catch along the sideline Sunday, giving him six for the season, tied for second most in the NFL), Stills blew up for 162 yards receiving, giving him 260 since Cooks' injury. He doesn't have the open-field quicks of a Cooks, but Stills is every bit as straight-line fast. Don't treat him as a top-20 WR, but top 30? I could get behind that.

Stedman Bailey, WR, St. Louis Rams(4.3 percent): Stop me if you've heard this before. Rams receiver you've barely heard of goes bananas, causes a stampede to the waiver wire. No, it's notBrian Quick. No, it's not Kenny Britt. This time it's Bailey, who reached the 100-yard mark in the first quarter Sunday. (He didn't catch another pass all day.) That's 189 yards for Bailey in his past two games, and surely this means he isShaun Hill's new binky and together the pair will ascend to previously unknown heights! Or, rather, just like Quick and Britt before him, Bailey will become part of a frustrating rotation on which you won't want to rely in your fantasy playoffs.Other speculative standard-league waiver adds, about whom I've written in previous weeks:Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers (30.5 percent); Branden Oliver, RB, Chargers (31.7 percent);Charles Sims, RB, Buccaneers (18.5 percent); Matt Asiata, RB, Vikings (30.0 percent); Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints (31.5 percent); Theo Riddick, RB, Lions (6.1 percent); Davante Adams, WR, Packers (6.8 percent); Greg Jennings, WR, Vikings (35.1 percent); Kenny Britt, WR, Rams (29.9 percent); John Brown, WR, Cardinals (23.6 percent); Charles Johnson, WR, Vikings (9.3 percent);Donte Moncrief, WR, Colts (1.5 percent); Cecil Shorts, WR, Jaguars (33.3 percent); Markus Wheaton, WR, Steelers (10.0 percent); Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings (18.2 percent); Jordan Cameron, TE, Browns (36.9 percent); Owen Daniels, TE, Ravens (26.7 percent); Tim Wright, TE, Patriots (12.8 percent); Mychal Rivera, TE, Raiders (31.9 percent).
Deeper-league finds
Colt McCoy, QB, Washington (2.8 percent): McCoy didn't play great against the Colts in Week 13, but his performance was a marked improvement over Robert Griffin III's final two appearances. McCoy's TD pass to Logan Paulsen was legit highlight material, and while many of his 392 passing yards came in the service of a futile comeback, that's still a lot of yards. The warning sign here is that when Washington got great field position in the first quarter because of turnovers, Colt did nothing. That said, he doesn't have a terrible schedule (STL, @NYG, PHI, DAL) the rest of the way. He's a two-QB league option.
Marqise Lee, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (1.2 percent): The USC rookie has been a beneficiary since Allen Robinson's injury, with nine catches on 12 targets in his past two games. Of course, during that same span, Cecil Shorts and Allen Hurns have 11 targets apiece (though only five and four catches, respectively), so it's probably futile to imagine we'll see anyone stand out from the crowd through the rest of December. But Lee's skill set continues to pique.
Andre Roberts, WR, Washington (1.1 percent): It sounds like DeSean Jackson will be able to play through his knee injury Sunday, but if that changes, Roberts should be on a deep-leaguer's radar. Don't get me wrong: Roberts doesn't have more than two catches in a game since Week 6, but with no D-Jax, he'd at least be the big-play threat in D.C.
Other solid waiver adds for deep-leaguers, about whom I've written in previous weeks: Lance Dunbar, RB, Cowboys (1.2 percent); Juwan Thompson, RB, Broncos (3.6 percent); Malcom Floyd, WR, Chargers (33.4 percent); Robert Woods, WR, Bills (4.2 percent); Allen Hurns, WR, Jaguars (10.2 percent).
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
140,720
Tokens
[h=1]Fantasy running back depth chart[/h][h=3]Your guide to each NFL team's most valuable fantasy running backs.[/h]
By Fantasy Staff | ESPN.com


[h=4]Fantasy football running back depth chart (last updated Dec. 2)[/h]The chart below breaks down all 32 NFL backfields in terms of running back fantasy value. Teams are listed in alphabetical order.
"Starter" is that team's most valuable running back in terms of fantasy value. "Handcuff" is the running back whose value would most increase should something happen to the starter."Stealth" is the running back most likely to work his way into starter or handcuff situation, or is currently injured but otherwise would be the starter or primary handcuff.
TEAMSTARTERHANDCUFFSTEALTH
i
Andre EllingtonMarion GriceStepfan Taylor
i
Steven JacksonDevonta FreemanJacquizz Rodgers
i
Justin ForsettLorenzo TaliaferroBernard Pierce
i
Fred JacksonAnthony DixonC.J. Spiller
i
DeAngelo WilliamsJonathan StewartFozzy Whittaker
i
Matt ForteKa'Deem CareySenorise Perry
i
Giovani BernardJeremy HillCedric Peerman
i
Isaiah CrowellTerrance WestGlenn Winston
i
DeMarco MurrayJoseph RandleLance Dunbar
i
C.J. AndersonJuwan ThompsonMontee Ball
i
Joique BellTheo RiddickReggie Bush
i
Eddie LacyJames StarksDuJuan Harris
i
Arian FosterAlfred BlueJonathan Grimes
i
Daniel HerronTrent RichardsonZurlon Tipton
i
Denard RobinsonToby GerhartJordan Todman
i
Jamaal CharlesKnile DavisDe'Anthony Thomas
i
Lamar MillerDaniel ThomasDamien Williams
i
Matt AsiataJerick McKinnonBen Tate
i
LeGarrette BlountShane VereenJonas Gray
i
Mark IngramPierre ThomasKhiry Robinson
i
Rashad JenningsAndre WilliamsOrleans Darkwa
i
Chris IvoryChris JohnsonBilal Powell
i
Latavius MurrayDarren McFaddenMarcel Reece
i
LeSean McCoyDarren SprolesChris Polk
i
Le'Veon BellDri ArcherJosh Harris
i
Ryan MathewsBranden OliverDonald Brown
i
Frank GoreCarlos HydeAlfonso Smith
i
Marshawn LynchRobert TurbinChristine Michael
i
Tre MasonBenjamin CunninghamZac Stacy
i
Doug MartinCharles SimsBobby Rainey
i
Bishop SankeyShonn GreeneDexter McCluster
i
Alfred MorrisRoy HeluSilas Redd

<thead style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</thead><tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 11px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">
</tbody>
Players are listed by their value on a fantasy depth chart, which may not necessarily reflect their position on their NFL team's depth chart.
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
140,720
Tokens
[h=1]Week 14 flex rankings
in.gif
[/h]
By Eric Karabell | ESPN Insider

It's often said that the roster decisions made during fantasy playoff time are the most difficult, but I'd disagree with that theme. There's just more on the line because a wrong decision could be the final one of a season, but the basic thinking doesn't change. When comparing two or more options, myriad factors enter the fray, but it comes down to doing the research and finally choosing one player over the others, and that's it. And don't look back. As we continue with the weekly flex rankings, take this information for what it is, one man's perspective. Use your best instincts, pick a roster, and hope for the best.
And as always, best of luck to all in Week 14 and beyond!


1. Le'Veon Bell, RB, Steelers: Bell's quarterback appears concerned about his running back's overuse, but that shouldn't be a problem this month. Perhaps next year, though.


2. Arian Foster, RB, Texans: Expect him to light up the Jaguars, as usual.


3. DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys: No 20-point games for a while, but he remains productive no matter what else goes on around him. And honestly, don't bother with a handcuff option. You're never going to use Joseph Randle in December.


4. Eddie Lacy, RB, Packers


5. Matt Forte, RB, Bears: Should go back to plenty of touches this week, so no concerns here.


6. Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys: Faces a Chicago defense that has been very kind to opposing wide receivers the past month.


7. Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers


8. Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs


9. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos


10. Justin Forsett, RB, Ravens: Don't laugh, he's fourth in the NFL in rushing. I keep pointing this out to some degree for its shock value, I suppose, but we still don't see him treated as a top-10 RB.


11. C.J. Anderson, RB, Broncos: He's certainly in a happy place. Yes, he's a must-start. In other words, if you have him, start him.


12. Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers


13. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions: Looked special again on Thanksgiving, but in the back of my mind, I keep thinking it was the Bears, and they are really, really bad at covering wide receivers.


14. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks


15. Randall Cobb, WR, Packers


16. LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles: Has been running well of late, but now he faces the Seahawks. Yeah, there's some concern.


17. A.J. Green, WR, Bengals: Didja know he's fourth on his own team in fantasy points this season? Doesn't seem like it, right? Has scored double digits in 4-of-5, he'll end up No. 1.


18. Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Broncos: Candidate for fantasy MVP honors when one considers his original value. Currently tied for 11th among all flex-spot eligible options. Wasn't drafted that way!


19. Josh Gordon, WR, Browns: Really doesn't matter who's slingin' the football his way. But Gordon is already showing signs of general indifference on route running, which is troubling.


20. Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Giants: Fantasy gold. G-O-L-D.


21. Alfred Morris, RB, Redskins


22. T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts


23. Mark Ingram, RB, Saints: He has four 100-yard rushing games this season. The guy leading these flex rankings has three. Just pointing that out.


24. Julio Jones, WR, Falcons: Viewed as a disappointment, but he's already at 82 catches for 1,169 yards!


25. Rashad Jennings, RB, Giants: Missed practice with a sore ankle, and the team signed running back depth, so yeah, it's no lock he suits up this week.


26. Alshon Jeffery, WR, Bears: Limited in practice with a sore hamstring, but you'll know Thursday at dinner if he's playing.


27. Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Panthers

28. Tre Mason, RB, Rams: Oh, if only all our running backs could face the Raiders every week during the playoffs. If only.


29. Joique Bell, RB, Lions: I'm not particularly worried about any other Lions running backs, as this top 100 more than insinuates.


30. Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots: Oh no, only 16 fantasy points in two weeks! Panic time! Sound the alarms! (Don't worry, he's safe. Perfectly safe.)


31. Mike Wallace, WR, Dolphins


32. Frank Gore, RB, 49ers: You can't convince me he all of a sudden stinks because he's simply too old. The entire offense is a mess. This week it gets the Raiders. I'm still buying.


33. Brandon Marshall, WR, Bears: Facing the Cowboys is easier than facing the Lions. Yep, that's what I think it's all about. Rinse. Repeat.


34. Lamar Miller, RB, Dolphins: Good thing Monday's game didn't end at halftime, when he had no yards!


35. Jeremy Maclin, WR, Eagles: If Mark Sanchez looks Maclin's way six times while Richard Sherman is defending, I'll be surprised. But we rank Maclin well in case the Eagles find ways to get him open, which they should.


36. DeSean Jackson, WR, Redskins


37. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans


38. Jimmy Graham, TE, Saints: I'll set the over/under this week at 11.5 targets. You know he's gotta be angry about Week 13, and he probably let his coaches and teammates know it.


39. Ryan Mathews, RB, Chargers


40. Golden Tate, WR, Lions


41. Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens: With double-digit fantasy points in 6-of-8 starts, you bet I find it odd he's not close to 100 percent owned in ESPN leagues. But hey, he's owned in my leagues.


42. Brandon LaFell, WR, Patriots: Another fellow who deserves more attention. He's really productive now.


43. Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers: Ditto for him.


44. Jeremy Hill, RB, Bengals: He just looks better than the smaller fellow with whom he's competing for time. I wouldn't recommend using both of them in the same lineup. I would prefer to avoid both.


45. Giovani Bernard, RB, Bengals


46. LeGarrette Blount, RB, Patriots


47. Daniel Herron, RB, Colts: A fine Week 13 statistically, but don't expect him to do much better than that. He's still sharing touches in a pass-heavy offense.


48. Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers: He's slowing down statistically, and he faces the Lions.


49. Andre Johnson, WR, Texans


50. Isaiah Crowell, RB, Browns: The other guy in the backfield is having trouble holding onto the football, or else he'd be ranked in this spot. Big week for Crowell if he intends to keep the starting role. It's not just the quarterback situation on this franchise!


51. Roddy White, WR, Falcons


52. Denard Robinson, RB, Jaguars: Sorry, but lately we're not impressed.


53. Anquan Boldin, WR, 49ers


54. Kenny Stills, WR, Saints


55. Julius Thomas, TE, Broncos: Tight end colleague Virgil Green is such an effective blocker that Thomas owners might not be pleased at how many snaps their guy plays.


56. Steven Jackson, RB, Falcons


57. Chris Ivory, RB, Jets: Hey, if all they're gonna do is hand the football off to the running backs, we'll play along! Ivory is a high-upside play, in theory.


58. Jarvis Landry, WR, Dolphins


59. Fred Jackson, RB, Bills
60. Sammy Watkins, WR, Bills: Awfully quiet over the past month, and the Broncos really aren't a great matchup.


61. Steve Smith, WR, Ravens


62. Julian Edelman, WR, Patriots: Certainly more valuable in PPR formats, but he still has value.


63. Shane Vereen, RB, Patriots: Same as Edelman, really. Except eligible at the more scarce position.


64. Jordan Matthews, WR, Eagles


65. Vincent Jackson, WR, Buccaneers


66. Trent Richardson, RB, Colts: With the Colts playing in Cleveland this weekend, expect many Browns fans to recall the monster trade of last season. Or not.


67. Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts


68. Marques Colston, WR, Saints


69. Doug Martin, RB, Buccaneers: Sure, you can choose to believe that his solid Week 13 showing is the new normal. But this rank strongly suggests I don't.


70. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers: The risk with Stewart is more about durability. Wouldn't you hate to see him leave a December game in the first quarter with injury if you activated him?


71. Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers: He's actually healthy.


72. Bishop Sankey, RB, Titans: Perhaps next season more fantasy owners will pass on the rookie running backs and look at wide receiver.


73. Robert Woods, WR, Bills


74. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals: Might play, but it's dangerous to invest.


75. Jerick McKinnon, RB, Vikings: Might also play, and it's also dangerous. He really hasn't done much statistically.


76. Terrance West, RB, Browns: If Crowell sits, West moves into his slot in these rankings.


77. Carlos Hyde, RB, 49ers: Perhaps we'd like to all believe that the 49ers will produce a bloated 30-point lead early, sit Gore, and let Hyde do his Tre Mason impression. But has that really happened in any other Raiders game this season?


78. Martavis Bryant, WR, Steelers: Regression is a pain in the you-know-what.


79. Marion Grice, RB, Cardinals: If we exalted him to top-30 status here, it would more than imply that Andre Ellington was the main problem. And he wasn't. The offense is the problem.


80. Michael Floyd, WR, Cardinals


81. Stedman Bailey, WR, Rams


82. Greg Olsen, TE, Panthers


83. Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks: Sleeper pick in theory since the Eagles' secondary is generally a problem, but Russell Wilson just doesn't look his way much.


84. Andre Williams, RB, Giants: Moves up if Jennings sits, but he doesn't look special, regardless of matchup.


85. Kendall Wright, WR, Titans


86. Delanie Walker, TE, Titans: Relying on most tight ends is problematic, even the better ones.


87. Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints


88. Chris Johnson, RB, Jets: He ran for 100 yards! Finally! Don't let that sway you into thinking all is well now.


89. Matt Asiata, RB, Vikings: Disappointing performance in Week 13 but again, if McKinnon sits, this guy has proven he can score touchdowns.


90. Greg Jennings, WR, Vikings


91. Latavius Murray, RB, Raiders: Has been cleared to play, but not knowing the potential touches and seeing the schedule, it's tough to invest in him as an active player.


92. Mohamed Sanu, WR, Bengals


93. Martellus Bennett, TE, Bears


94. Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers


95. Jordan Reed, TE, Redskins: If you ask me to name one tight end who could push one of the big three out, it's him.


96. Darren Sproles, RB, Eagles


97. Percy Harvin, WR, Jets: Still think he's a great player?


98. Eric Decker, WR, Jets


99. Alfred Blue, RB, Texans


100. Pierre Garcon, WR, Redskins


Others: Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders; Terrance Williams, WR, Cowboys; Donte Moncrief, WR, Colts; Kenny Britt, WR, Rams; Roy Helu, RB, Redskins; James Starks, RB, Packers; Allen Hurns, WR, Jaguars; Charles Sims, RB, Buccaneers; Andrew Hawkins, WR, Browns; Reggie Bush, RB, Lions; Robert Turbin, RB, Seahawks; Stepfan Taylor, RB, Cardinals
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
140,720
Tokens
[h=1]Tough flex calls in fantasy playoffs[/h][h=3]Shane Vereen, Kenny Stills, Sammy Watkins, Andre Williams cause anxiety[/h]
By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com
It's fantasy playoff time, which means I'm contractually obligated to roll out the same old tired lineup-construction bromides. You know: Dance with the players who got you here. Don't overthink it. Don't use Trent Richardson.


But to heck with that! Here during wild-card week in fantasyland, I'd rather dish on specific players. You know me; I spend tons of time sitting around my house watching game video and recording potentially pantsless player videos. I have more opinions than Jay Cutler has garbage-time yards. So let's get in some observations on players you may be considering for your flex spots in Week 14.


(Remember, you can see my single-position ranks by clicking here.)


Shane Vereen, RB, New England Patriots: Four touches last week. Four touches last week! Two draws, one shotgun draw and a wheel route. That's four more touches than Bronko Nagurski had last week, and he's been dead since 1990. Plus, Vereen submitted his weekly head-clutching drop on a simple screen. Bill Belichick doesn't just want you to be frustrated with his backfield plans. He wants you to see Brandon Bolden score a random red zone TD and start tweeting about it. That's BB's master plan: to trend on Twitter. Verdict: Vereen is outside my top 25 RBs this week for the first time since Stevan Ridley got hurt. Yes, any Pats rusher can score points any week, but I can no longer invest emotion in any of them. For me, they are the "Homeland" of NFL players.


Kenny Stills, WR, New Orleans Saints: After playing 49 snaps in Week 12, Stills played only 24 this past Sunday. So his production -- five catches, 162 yards and a TD -- comes with a bit of a warning flag. If his workload can vary that much, he's not an elite fantasy option. But I like that the Saints are mixing up his routes in a major way. Because I'm obsessive-compulsive, I charted every one from Sunday:


Kenny Stills, Week 13 route breakdown
Route Result
1 Deep in-cut, from left (no target)
2 Shallow cross, from right (no target)
3 Hitch-and-go from slot overthrow, should've been a TD
4 Shallow cross, from right (no target)
5 Short hook, from right 10-yard gain
6 Slant, from left (no target)
7 Fade, from right (no target)
8 Clear-out fly, from right (no target)
9 Fly, from right 44-yard gain, ate William Gay's lunch
10 Shallow out, from left (no target)
11 Clear-out fly, from left (no target)
12 Sideline stop, from left 21-yard gain
13 Out-and-up, from right 69-yard TD, made Ike Taylor fall down
14 Clear-out fly, from right (no target)
15 Deep out, from right 18-yard gain
16 Deep out, from right (no target)
17 Fade, from right (no target)
The good news is that this usage stands in contrast with much of Stills' rookie year, when he was mostly the clear-out guy. Verdict: Stills' speed is no joke. He's one of those guys who doesn't look like he's running all that hard, and then he's flying by you. I hate those guys. I haven't played much pickup football this season, but last year whenever I got matched up with a relative burner, I tended to get a spontaneous hamstring cramp that forced me to cover Slow Ed the rest of the day. Anyway, Stills is a good flex this week.


Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: He doesn't find the end zone for the first time since Week 8, and I'm getting questions like, "Hey, Harris, big week, gotta beat my brother-in-law ... Mike Evans or Stedman Bailey?" OK, you're allowed to be bummed that after three straight games of at least seven grabs and 124 yards, Evans has 7-for-96 his past two weeks combined. But the tape on this guy! You might have seen him bullying Terence Newman blocking downfield, but you might not have seen his incredible close-to-the-ground hands catch, or his near-catch tap-dance along the sideline after Josh McCown fumbled a snap, or the three deep end zone shots the Bucs gave Evans. Three weeks ago was the first time I ranked Evans ahead of teammate Vincent Jackson, and I'm not stopping now. Verdict: Evans doesn't even belong in a "flex" article. He's a pure WR2. The Detroit Lions play a lot of zone on the back end, which is good for Evans, and Rashean Mathis is still having bad Alshon Jeffery Tryptophan dreams from Thanksgiving, which is also good for Evans. There's something to be said for being a mean, insane person on the field, and I get the idea that Evans is one of those.

Sammy Watkins, WR, Buffalo Bills: Since we're on the topic of rookie receivers, let's get to the strange case of Mr. Watkins. His rookie year represents kind of a double embarrassment for me. To begin the season, I was vocally down on Watkins, not because I didn't like the talent but because EJ Manuel is awful. I looked smart in September, but nobody cares if you look smart in September. As Watkins launched into celebrity in Weeks 5 through 8 as Kyle Orton took over, I was late to adapt. I still had him as my No. 39 wideout in Week 7, behind such luminaries as Pierre Garcon and Wes Welker, because I just couldn't buy Orton. By the time I began to believe, Watkins injured his groin, and he has stunk four games in a row. The Bills say he's still bugged by his hip/groin issues, but his biggest problem Sunday was Orton being Orton. Watkins' nine targets went like this: ball batted at the line; ball thrown behind Watkins; ball thrown into double coverage in the end zone and picked; screen; overthrow; dump-off Watkins caught but nearly got killed because it was too high; ball ill-advisedly thrown toward Joe Haden and picked; screen; ball underthrown. Verdict: Sometimes I try to keep my opinion sticky. It took a few weeks of good production from Watkins to get me to believe, so I want to keep ranking him high. But no. The Beardless Neckbeard has reverted to form. I won't trust any of Orton's weapons in these fantasy playoffs. I'd rather preorder the new Nicki Minaj album. (Hint: I will not preorder the new Nicki Minaj album.)
Andre Williams, RB, New York Giants: Williams was a legit factor in the Giants' game plan even before Rashad Jennings hurt his ankle last week. He had two carries and a pass target (!) inside the Jacksonville Jaguars' 10-yard line, and nobody will doubt the rookie's power. He had a borderline drop on a short pass (it was thrown a little behind him) but caught a middle screen and did good work with it. It was OK stuff. But the larger point about Williams, of course, is that he'll be usable in your playoffs only if Jennings can't go, and Jennings didn't practice Wednesday or Thursday. Verdict: The Tennessee Titans held the Houston Texans to 99 yards rushing last week, which considering how bad they'd been previously is a victory. But I still think the Giants can run all over them. If there's no Jennings, Williams is my No. 19 running back this week. His field vision is approximately at Stevie Wonder levels, but high-volume and short-yardage work can be a wonderful thing.


Quick hits: I wish I could give you an incisive scouting report on Marion Grice in case Andre Ellington can't play. But what I saw from Grice last week after Ellington got hurt was standard fare for Arizona Cardinals RBs: You can tell he has moves, but there's nowhere to run. Grice was nice in the receiving game, but as long as Drew Stanton is the QB, defenses will focus on stopping the run. ... I'm leaning toward trusting Brandon LaFell more than I usually do this week, not because of his two touchdowns this past Sunday but because I don't believe Julian Edelman is healthy. The risk for LaFell in Week 14 is Brandon Flowers following him all over the field, but I'm not sure the San Diego Chargers will do that. ... Martavis Bryant has crashed back to Earth, although he did drop a would-be touchdown last week that would've papered over his rookie wall. You know the upside with Bryant is tremendous, but I wouldn't be using him in my playoff run. ... The Oakland Raiders have cleared Latavius Murray to play in Week 14 but apparently don't plan on starting him. Murray is reportedly practicing with backups, while Darren McFadden is running with the ones. That doesn't entirely steer me away from Murray, because he can still shine in a time-share. But it does enhance the theory that the Raiders are one twist short of a Slinky.


 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,135,148
Messages
13,823,648
Members
104,180
Latest member
craiglindsey46
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com