Fantasy Football News 2013/2014

HacheMan · Aug 28, 2013

[h=1]WRs with best scoring chances[/h][h=3]Stats show which pass-catchers were most likely to find end zone in 2012[/h]By Mike Clay | Pro Football Focus

In Part 1 of our introduction to opportunity-adjusted touchdowns (oTD), I focused on the running back position. We quantifiably identified the flaws with red zone data and discovered why oTD is a significantly better resource for fantasy football gamers.
Part 2 of our study will examine receivers using the same technique.
What's unique about the application of oTD to pass-catchers is the fact that we don't actually have to use the line of scrimmage. Instead, I base oTD on where the receiver is standing on the field when targeted. Consider that, of the 83,631 targets we've charted during the past five years, 5,458 (6.5 percent) have been delivered into the end zone.

[h=4]Targets for pass-catchers over past five seasons[/h]

DEZ	TD%	DEZ	TD%	DEZ	TD%	DEZ	TD%
In EZ	36.9	6	14.1	12	7.3	18	5.2
1	36.0	7	12.7	13	5.8	19	2.6
2	31.8	8	11.1	14	4.5	20	3.5
3	22.4	9	10.7	15	3.5	21	4.0
4	23.4	10	9.7	16	4.6	22	2.2
5	14.5	11	6.5	17	2.9	23	2.4
*DEZ = Depth from end zone in yards

If you read Part 1, this chart will look familiar. It's basically the same one we examined during our rushing oTD study, but this time we're focusing on targets instead of carries.
We see a relatively linear drop-off in scoring rate as targets move farther away from the end zone. Take note, however, of the tiny difference between scoring rates on balls thrown into the end zone (36.9 percent) and throws delivered one yard away (36.0 percent). Keep that in mind next time you trash your quarterback for throwing one yard short of the end zone.

The chart below shows the top 40 players in receiving oTD during the 2012 regular season.

<OFFER></OFFER>

[h=4]Top 40 players in receiver oTD in 2012[/h]

Rk	Receiver	Targ	oTD	Actual TD	Diff
1	Brandon Marshall	181	12.0	11	1.0
2	A.J. Green	158	11.8	11	0.8
3	Calvin Johnson	199	11.2	5	6.2
4	Reggie Wayne	179	9.9	5	4.9
5	Demaryius Thomas	138	9.9	10	-0.1
6	Mike Williams	120	9.7	9	0.7
7	Mike Wallace	116	8.9	8	0.9
8	Vincent Jackson	137	8.8	8	0.8
9	Eric Decker	120	8.5	13	-4.5
10	Julio Jones	127	8.5	10	-1.5
11	Torrey Smith	104	8.3	8	0.3
12	Roddy White	138	8.0	7	1.0
13	Marques Colston	126	7.7	10	-2.3
14	James Jones	93	7.7	14	-6.3
15	Rob Gronkowski	77	7.5	11	-3.5
16	Jeremy Maclin	118	7.4	7	0.4
17	Victor Cruz	137	7.3	10	-2.7
18	Larry Fitzgerald	148	7.2	4	3.2
19	Brian Hartline	118	6.9	1	5.9
20	Dez Bryant	137	6.7	12	-5.3
21	Steve Johnson	144	6.6	6	0.6
22	Brandon Lloyd	129	6.5	4	2.5
23	Jimmy Graham	131	6.5	9	-2.5
24	Sidney Rice	75	6.4	7	-0.6
25	Lance Moore	100	6.4	6	0.4
26	Steve Smith (Car)	127	6.3	4	2.3
27	Donnie Avery	112	6.3	3	3.3
28	Tony Gonzalez	121	6.2	8	-1.8
29	Heath Miller	93	6.0	8	-2.0
30	Anquan Boldin	108	6.0	4	2.0
31	Martellus Bennett	88	5.9	5	0.9
32	Louis Murphy	55	5.8	1	4.8
33	Miles Austin	115	5.8	6	-0.2
34	Kenny Britt	85	5.6	4	1.6
35	Denarius Moore	110	5.6	7	-1.4
36	Wes Welker	166	5.5	6	-0.5
37	Antonio Gates	76	5.2	7	-1.8
38	Randy Moss	47	5.2	3	2.2
39	Hakeem Nicks	96	5.1	3	2.1
40	Jason Witten	146	5.1	3	2.1

Based on the opportunity presented, Brandon Marshall had the best chance to lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns. The Bears' workhorse receiver was targeted while in the end zone a whopping 22 times and hauled in nine of the targets.
The appearance of Calvin Johnson and Reggie Wayne near the top of this chart really shows the value of oTD. Johnson was targeted six fewer times than Marshall while in the end zone, but caught just two. Wayne, meanwhile, saw 15 end zone targets, but converted only four. Both players are prime candidates to get in the end zone more often in 2013.

Andre Johnson, on the other hand, does not appear on the list. I mention him because he's the third in the trio of elite fantasy wide receivers in good offenses who put up noticeably poor touchdown production in 2012. Johnson was targeted in the end zone only six times last season (he caught two). This tells us that, without an adjustment to the Texans' play calling, Johnson's touchdown total is unlikely to rise significantly.
Rob Gronkowski missed five games last season, which allowed him to accrue only 77 targets. Of those 77, however, 13 (16.8 percent) were delivered inside the end zone. Gronkowski converted an impressive seven into touchdowns. You won't regret spending a fourth-round pick on Gronkowski this year.
Mike Williams is the only player not named Brandon Marshall who saw at least 20 targets while in the end zone last season. Williams scored seven of his nine touchdowns simply by catching the football.
Denver's acquisition of Wes Welker has many concerned with Eric Decker's fantasy outlook. Fortunately for his owners, Decker doesn't figure to lose his scoring opportunities. Towering over most cornerbacks at 6-foot-3, Decker saw 16 end zone targets last season, which was tied for fifth-most in the league. He hauled in seven for scores.
Welker, meanwhile, ranked fourth in the league with 166 targets (46 more than Decker), but saw only six end zone targets (converting two) and 12 targets inside the opponent's 10-yard line. Welker, of course, was in New England last season, but he's 5-9, 185 pounds and will play a situational role in Denver. He's not a threat to Decker in the scoring department.
In Part 1 of our study, I pointed out rushers with the largest gaps (for better and for worse) between their actual and expected touchdown numbers. When it comes to receiving oTD, the aforementioned Calvin Johnson, at plus-6.2, was the "unluckiest."
On the other side of the coin was the 2012 leader in receiving touchdowns, James Jones. Jones found pay dirt 14 times, overachieving by 7.7 scores. This happened for several reasons. First of all, he was in the boundaries of the end zone when targeted 12 times, converting seven. That includes 11 scores on 17 targets when within two yards of the end zone. Jones' longest touchdowns were from 10, 11 and 12 yards out.
Packers wide receivers have tended to rank high on this list with Aaron Rodgers under center, which says a lot about the quarterback's ability to convert scoring opportunities. This tells us to remain confident in the touchdown production of his wide receivers, and that Greg Jennings is likely in for a rude awakening in Minnesota.

HacheMan · Aug 29, 2013

Analyzing recent trends in ADP

Eric Karabell

As the final weekend of August approaches and it’s safe to say we’ve learned pretty much all we’re going to from the preseason games -- and it wasn’t much, really -- it’s time to take one final look at ESPN’s live draft results (also known as average draft position or ADP) and see what’s going on. To be honest, while I know some of my colleagues rely heavily on ADP to extract proper value, I’ve been in so many drafts already -- please, for the love of Miley Cyrus just start the games that count already -- I’m far more willing at this point to select a player I really want a few rounds earlier than expected. Go with your gut, not that of hundreds of thousands of others who continue to underrate some of the players you perhaps like.

That doesn’t mean I’ve adjusted my overall drafting strategy for this season, but let’s face it, the guys and gals sharing my drafts -- past ones and upcoming -- are well aware what I’m thinking, at this point knowing know my sleepers, busts, favorite foods and precise time I walk my daughter to the bus stop. So, I’m told everyone likes lists, so not to piggyback any of my colleagues -- the names are different! -- here are a bunch of them. Plus, one might say I’ve planted my fantasy flag on some of these players! Best of luck to all this final drafting weekend and all season, and we’ll be with you all the way at ESPN Fantasy!

Five running backs I like a round (or more) better than ADP

1. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars: Healthy and motivated and led the league in rushing with the bad offense in 2011. Early second-rounder for me.

2. David Wilson, New York Giants: Looks like Chris Johnson to me, the good parts at least. I’ll take him over any quarterback now.

3. Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers: Just because the previous underwhelming Packers running backs didn’t do much in the Aaron Rodgers era doesn’t mean this rookie can’t. I’ll buy in Round 3.

4. Ahmad Bradshaw, Indianapolis Colts: Check the numbers. This is a really good player who plays more than most think. And he scores touchdowns.

5. Daryl Richardson, St. Louis Rams: Movin’ on up draft lists, but not nearly enough. Job is his, and the offense is legit. Is sixth round too early? What does “too early” mean if you think he’s a safe flex option, which I do?

Five wide receivers I like a round (or more) better than ADP

1. Mike Williams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: It’s still the seventh or eighth round where I’d get him, but he’s underrated. Last year was not a fluke.

2. Lance Moore, New Orleans Saints: Same thing. The top 25 or so wide receivers I value similarly to ADP, but later on, for my potential No. 3 WR, I see bargains.

3. Kenbrell Thompkins, New England Patriots: Let’s face it -- he might end up overrated in drafts and no bargain soon, but his ADP is 123, and I’ll take the shot in the ninth or 10th round. Crazy upside.

4. Vincent Brown, San Diego Chargers: I think I’ve spoken well of him quite enough, but the opportunity is clearly there.

5. Michael Floyd, Arizona Cardinals: Yes, the change in quarterback makes that much of a difference. I’ve got Larry Fitzgerald above ADP, too. Look what Reggie Wayne did in 2012 with a QB upgrade! Floyd is really talented, and Carson Palmer will be throwing.

Three quarterbacks I seem to be getting in my drafts, each after ADP

1. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts: Sure, he might throw less. He might also run for fewer touchdowns. But he might also become the next Peyton Manning, and there’s a price for upside, durability and talent. And why must he throw less or run less effectively? In 10-team standard formats, he slips so far that one must be patient and pounce.

2. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys: If I don’t get Luck, Romo seems to always be ignored. Forget about his January struggles. He’s been a top-10 fantasy QB in five of six seasons, and the year he wasn’t, he missed 10 games.

3. Sam Bradford, Rams: If I take a backup QB -- and in 10-teamers there’s no need -- he keeps slipping. Few seem to believe.

Three tight ends I seem to be getting in my drafts, each after ADP

1. Jared Cook, Rams: OK, so I like the Rams. But look at the weapons!

2. Martellus Bennett, Chicago Bears: Looks like a fine goal-line target to me.

3. Antonio Gates, Chargers: I don’t feel particularly good about this one, but he didn’t miss being a top-10 TE by much in 2012, and he’s capable of a repeat. It’s about value with him. In Round 13 there are no bad picks.

Five players with rising ADP I totally agree with (not already named above)

1. Knowshon Moreno, Denver Broncos: He probably starts for them the first week or two, at least. If he performs as he did to finish 2012, he’ll keep playing. Montee Ball is the long-term future, though.

2. Isaac Redman, Pittsburgh Steelers: I don’t think he’s going to be great, but he is starting because Le'Veon Bell is hurt and Jonathan Dwyer isn’t any good. So there’s opportunity. In the 10th round, every starting running back should be gone. And who says Redman loses the job?

3. Ben Tate, Houston Texans: He might be a starting running back as well. I mean, at this point, a week from the season, I just cannot trust Arian Foster with a first-round pick. He’s likely to either miss games or play in them and share with Tate. The Texans block so well that if we knew Foster was out months, Tate would be in … my second round overall.

4. DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers: I begrudgingly concur with him moving up. He’s the guy, at least until it gets close to a goal line. Starting running back in Round 8 is a nice price, even if he’s kind of shot.

5. Jacoby Jones, Baltimore Ravens: Not many WRs are rising in ADP. This guy is starting, and for those who think the loss of Anquan Boldin means Torrey Smith turns into Jerry Rice, good luck. It means Jones simply replaces Boldin.

Five players with rising ADP I do not agree with (not already named above)

1. Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles: I concede there is upside for the games he plays in, but please don’t read into preseason numbers. And in the third preseason game he looked awful. He made poor decisions, which will result in turnovers. He won’t slide when he runs, which will get him hurt. He won’t win, which will start the true rebuilding earlier.

2. Julius Thomas, Broncos: Let’s see, Peyton has three wide receivers to throw to, several running backs with the ability to catch dump-off passes and now this guy -- with a decent preseason but still at best sharing the position with Jacob Tamme -- is becoming beloved. Only Moreno is rising faster in ADP. Similarly, it makes little sense for Brent Celek and Heath Miller to be rising in ADP.

3. Joique Bell, Detroit Lions: I’ll grant that he’s passed Mikel Leshoure on the depth chart, but Reggie Bush is going to be terrific this season. Draft Bell late, but don’t get too excited.

4. Santana Moss, Washington Redskins: There are younger options I’d surely take before him that are being ignored, like Kenny Stills (Saints), Robert Woods (Bills), Mohamed Sanu (Bengals) and Keenan Allen (Chargers).

5. Christine Michael, Seattle Seahawks: This guy does look like a future fantasy monster, but it seems to me Marshawn Lynch is safe and durable and productive, and by Week 3 the Michael owners will see how little he’s being used and need to fill in for pending bye weeks. Just remember Michael’s name if Lynch ever limps out of a game.

Enjoy your long weekend and get ready for an exciting season!

HacheMan · Aug 29, 2013

[h=1]Preseason injury concerns warranted[/h][h=3]In most cases, ADPs decline, and the risk outweighs the reward[/h]By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

If Arian Foster's calf injury suffered during OTAs, or subsequent back injury suffered at the onset of training camp, concerns his 2013 fantasy owners, they're sure not exhibiting it at the draft table.

Foster's ADP (average draft position) has scarcely changed in the past week, slipping by only one-tenth, and even at the height of "Foster injury panic" -- between Aug. 14-21 -- it dropped by only half a spot (2.9 to 3.4). What's more, the ESPN fantasy staff's ranking of him has gone unchanged: He remains a firm No. 2.

It's optimistic treatment of a player who won't take a single preseason carry, who has caused NFL insiders to believe he might cede some September work to Ben Tate and who 10 days ago had some doubt cast upon his Week 1 availability. One might wonder whether the smarter play in fantasy drafts is to take the conservative approach with an injured player, considering how close in value the next three players behind him are.

History supports this strategy.

Over a period of seven seasons -- the 2006 to 2012 campaigns, to frame this study -- 82 players were in a state of "injury flux" during fantasy draft season, which we'll define as either missing time late in the preseason or the preseason in its entirety, or up to the first four games of the regular season. These guidelines were by design: We want comparison points to this year's crop of questionable-or-worse-for-Week-1 players, which include such names as Justin Blackmon (four-game suspension), Josh Gordon (two-game suspension), Rob Gronkowski (back), Jordy Nelson (knee surgery) and Isaiah Pead (one-game suspension). These are the players about whom fantasy owners have the most relevant draft-day questions, and whom fantasy owners might be pushing down draft boards accordingly.

Admittedly, this is a somewhat subjective study, considering the varying types and severity of injuries, not to mention the inclusion of holdouts and suspensions. It would be impossible to identify and evaluate every such situation fairly; absorb this as more a cautionary lesson than a hard-and-fast rule.

To be clear, this study is not designed to address major injury questions, or to use 2013 examples, Le'Veon Bell (Lisfranc), Michael Crabtree (Achilles), Percy Harvin (hip) or Jonathan Stewart (ankle). Players known to be at risk of more than four missed regular-season games -- or in a few of these cases at least six -- are not included in the study. It's not difficult to judge that these are all significant injury risks.

Here are the findings about that 82-man sample:

• These players combined suffered a 33.8 percent decline in total fantasy production during those seasons, or 23.2 percent going by fantasy points per game.
• Only 20 of them scored more fantasy points than the preceding year; 12 of them enjoyed an increase of 20 percent or more, four an increase of between 10 and 20 percent and four an increase of up to 10 percent.
• Only three experienced an increase of 100 or more fantasy points.
• Twenty-two suffered a decline of 100 fantasy points or more.
• These players missed an average of 1.4 games to begin their seasons, and 4.0 games during the course of said seasons.
• Three of them missed the entire first half of the season (through Week 9).

For more details, the entire chart of players examined can be seen at column's end.

This is not to say that every preseason injury question mark developed into a bust. Consider the three players whose fantasy point totals increased by 100 points or more during their respective seasons, two of which happened in 2012:

Randy Moss, 2007: He missed the entire preseason with a hamstring injury, yet recovered in time to set a single-season record for receiving touchdowns (23), not to mention tally the second-most fantasy points all-time by a wide receiver (280).

Adrian Peterson, 2012: You cannot possibly have forgotten this story. Peterson defied the odds in recovering from Dec. 30, 2011, knee surgery to reconstruct his ACL and repair his MCL, outscoring all running backs by at least 49 fantasy points.

Trent Richardson, 2012: After entering the league with somewhat of a reputation for being injury-prone, Richardson succumbed to knee surgery in early August, missing the preseason. He would return in time to play 15 of the Cleveland Browns' 16 games, notching the third-most productive rookie season by a running back and sixth by a rookie overall (188 points).

The problem, however, is that for every such success story, there are twice as many examples of disappointment. Here are just five of the most catastrophic tales of players who entered a season with a questionable status:

Tom Brady, 2008: Yes, this one is probably unfair. After all, Brady's preseason injury absence had nothing to do with the torn ACL he suffered as a result of a Bernard Pollard takedown seven minutes and 33 seconds into his season. But facts are facts; he did enter that year with questions about his foot, an unspecified, mysterious injury. (Then again, it's the New England Patriots, so what's new?)

Peyton Manning, 2011: You'll remember this one as the "four neck surgeries for Peyton Manning" year, only one of them (on May 23) reported before most leagues had drafted. Manning's draft stock plummeted precipitously throughout that August amidst questions he'd miss multiple regular-season weeks, but it wasn't until Sept. 9 that he'd succumb to surgery No. 3 -- and at that time it was only the second one publicly announced -- ending his season.

Larry Johnson, 2007: His was a 25-day holdout concluding Aug. 21, giving him 19 days to prepare for the season. His was a catastrophic collapse; he appeared in only eight games and suffered a 225-point decline in fantasy production. That said, the holdout alone shouldn't be blamed; Johnson's 416 rushing attempts in 2006 set an all-time record, his 457 touches the second most in history.

Maurice Jones-Drew, 2012: Another holdout story, his a 38-day wait that ended with only one week to go before the season, Jones-Drew's tale shares an important parallel with Arian Foster's. Jones-Drew was another clear first-round fantasy talent at the time, one who still had the faith of his owners (and prospective owners) -- this columnist included -- despite his preseason absence. He would wind up playing just six games, suffering a 193-point decline in fantasy production.

Brett Favre, 2010: May 21 surgery on his left ankle cast a shadow on Favre's draft status, fresh off his statistical rejuvenation of 2009, and limited him to only two preseason appearances. He would endure the most trying year of his career -- both on and off the field -- suffering in-season setbacks with his ankle before a shoulder injury finally snapped his 297-consecutive-start streak in December. His 90 fantasy points were his worst seasonal total in 19 years as an NFL starter, and they represented a 184-point drop-off from his 2009 total.

What this tells us is that, while there's no one-size-fits-all rule for question-mark players, the entire crop resides much more in "risk/reward" territory than we sometimes give credit, the risk considerably greater than the reward. This is a critical lesson with Foster; it supports the claims of those who plan to push him to the back end of the first round, as this columnist does (he's my No. 7 overall player).

It also validates any fantasy owner's strategy to take a conservative approach to drafting any injury/in-season absence risk, based on the notion that far more past examples than not resulted in disappointment. Yes, Rob Gronkowski's continually plummeting ADP is sensible; his No. 50 (53.1 ADP) status might, in fact, be generous. Yes, Jordy Nelson's No. 23 ADP among wide receivers (63rd overall, 66.7) is fair and perhaps also generous, considering he ranked 20th at his position in fantasy points per game in 2012 (9.5).

That's not to say that either player, or even Foster, couldn't recover brilliantly and repeat his 2012 effort. But if you have doubts about any, they've got validity.

[h=3]The full 82-man injury study[/h]
Players are ranked by their fantasy point totals in the given season. "Prev. year" is the player's number of games played and fantasy points scored in the previous year. In the "Injury" year, "Pre" represents the number of preseason games, "G" the number of regular-season games, the player played in the given season.

<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>

	<CENTER></CENTER>	<CENTER></CENTER>	<CENTER></CENTER>		<CENTER>Prev. year</CENTER>	<CENTER>"Injury" year</CENTER>
Player	<CENTER>Team</CENTER>	<CENTER>Pos</CENTER>	<CENTER>Year</CENTER>	Injury	<CENTER>G</CENTER>	<CENTER>FPTS</CENTER>	<CENTER>ADP</CENTER>	<CENTER>Pre</CENTER>	<CENTER>G</CENTER>	<CENTER>FPTS</CENTER>
Adrian Peterson	Min	RB	2012	Knee surgery	12	181	15	0	16	297
Randy Moss	NE	WR	2007	Hamstring	13	67	41	0	16	280
Peyton Manning	Ind	QB	2008	Knee surgery	16	268	10	0	16	245
Arian Foster	Hou	RB	2011	Hamstring	16	313	2	2	13	238
Carson Palmer	Cin	QB	2006	Knee surgery	16	256	25	2	16	228
Ben Roethlisberger	Pit	QB	2010	4-G Suspension	15	257	116	3	12	201
Donovan McNabb	Phi	QB	2007	Knee surgery	10	194	36	2	14	197
Trent Richardson	Cle	RB	2012	Knee	0	0	36	0	15	188
Maurice Jones-Drew	Jac	RB	2010	Knee	16	255	3	2	14	186
Ben Roethlisberger	Pit	QB	2006	Appendectomy	12	160	81	3	15	175
Steven Jackson	StL	RB	2008	Holdout	12	154	6	0	12	175
Steve Smith	Car	WR	2008	2-G Suspension	15	138	33	2	14	172
Frank Gore	SF	RB	2007	Hand	16	249	4	0	15	170
Steve Smith	Car	WR	2006	Hamstring	16	227	14	1	14	169
Plaxico Burress	NYG	WR	2007	Back/illness	15	150	53	0	16	167
Donovan McNabb	Wsh	QB	2010	Ankle	14	223	100	2	13	165
Chris Johnson	Ten	RB	2011	Holdout	16	216	3	0	16	157
T.J. Houshmandzadeh	Cin	WR	2006	Heel	14	138	45	3	14	155
Matt Cassel	KC	QB	2009	Knee	16	231	85	3	15	154
Marques Colston	NO	WR	2011	Knee surgery	15	138	44	2	14	154
Knowshon Moreno	Den	RB	2010	Hamstring	16	149	35	0	13	150
Pierre Thomas	NO	RB	2009	Knee	15	148	41	2	14	148
Brandon Marshall	Den	WR	2008	1-G Suspension	16	170	54	4	15	147
Larry Fitzgerald	Ari	WR	2010	Knee	16	180	14	1	16	146
Fred Jackson	Buf	RB	2010	Broken hand	16	157	102	1	16	142
Rob Bironas	Ten	K	2008	Groin	16	146	177	0	16	140
Thomas Jones	NYJ	RB	2007	Calf	16	160	26	1	16	132
Vernon Davis	SF	TE	2010	Knee	16	168	52	1	16	129
Mike Wallace	Pit	WR	2012	Holdout	16	162	23	0	15	123
Anquan Boldin	Ari	WR	2009	Hamstring	12	163	29	2	15	121
Miles Austin	Dal	WR	2012	Hamstring	10	97	63	0	16	121
Laveranues Coles	NYJ	WR	2008	Thigh	12	94	75	0	16	121
Terrell Owens	Buf	WR	2009	Toe	16	156	30	1	16	115
Kevin Jones	Wsh	RB	2007	Broken foot	12	149	89	2	13	113
Lance Moore	NO	WR	2011	Groin surgery	16	114	125	2	14	110
Willis McGahee	Bal	RB	2008	Knee surgery	15	174	18	0	13	109
Jeremy Maclin	Phi	WR	2011	Illness	16	149	43	0	13	109
T.J. Houshmandzadeh	Cin	WR	2008	Hamstring	16	179	26	0	15	107
Clinton Portis	Wsh	RB	2006	Shoulder	16	229	9	1	8	103
Michael Crabtree	SF	WR	2010	Neck	11	67	50	0	16	103
Braylon Edwards	Cle	WR	2008	Concussion/heel	16	212	20	1	16	102
Santonio Holmes	NYJ	WR	2010	4-G Suspension	16	145	93	4	12	102
Darren McFadden	Oak	RB	2011	Orbital bone	13	208	22	0	7	100
Dez Bryant	Dal	WR	2010	Ankle	0	0	89	0	12	98
Larry Johnson	KC	RB	2007	Holdout	16	317	3	1	8	92
Deion Branch	Sea	WR	2006	Holdout	16	120	99	0	14	92
Travis Henry	Den	RB	2007	Knee	14	160	18	2	12	91
Dwayne Bowe	KC	WR	2012	Holdout	16	137	60	2	13	91
Brett Favre	Min	QB	2010	Ankle surgery	16	274	53	2	13	90
Jonathan Stewart	Car	RB	2010	Achilles	16	178	41	0	14	89
Ryan Mathews	SD	RB	2012	Broken clavicle	14	173	34	1	12	87
Derek Anderson	Cle	QB	2008	Concussion	16	243	46	2	10	83
Deuce McAllister	NO	RB	2008	Knee surgery	3	5	94	3	13	83
Hakeem Nicks	NYG	WR	2012	Broken foot	15	154	29	1	13	82
Antonio Bryant	TB	WR	2009	Knee surgery	16	157	86	0	13	79
Kenny Britt	Ten	WR	2012	1-G Suspension	3	43	91	2	14	78
Mike Vanderjagt	Dal	K	2006	Groin	16	126	143	2	10	70
Kevin Walter	Hou	WR	2009	Hamstring	16	130	100	3	14	68
Plaxico Burress	NYG	WR	2008	Ankle	16	167	32	0	10	65
Marshawn Lynch	Buf	RB	2009	3-G Suspension	15	173	51	4	13	63
Daniel Thomas	Mia	RB	2011	Hamstring	0	0	73	4	13	62
Sidney Rice	Sea	WR	2011	Shoulder	6	38	70	2	9	57
Maurice Jones-Drew	Jac	RB	2012	Holdout	16	249	9	0	6	56
Jonathan Stewart	Car	RB	2012	Ankle	16	133	67	3	9	54
Brian Westbrook	Phi	RB	2009	Ankle surgery	14	209	24	0	8	51
Dallas Clark	Ind	TE	2010	Leg	16	163	39	0	6	51
Beanie Wells	Ari	RB	2010	Knee	16	121	29	4	13	51
Matt Hasselbeck	Sea	QB	2008	Back	16	231	50	1	7	50
Kevin Curtis	Phi	WR	2008	Sports hernia	16	154	102	3	9	47
Bobby Engram	Sea	WR	2008	Shoulder	16	143	110	1	13	45
Vincent Jackson	SD	WR	2010	Holdout	15	166	129	0	5	42
Rudi Johnson	Det	RB	2008	Hamstring	11	74	59	0	14	36
Rashard Mendenhall	Pit	RB	2012	Knee surgery	15	149	131	0	6	24
Ryan Torain	Wsh	RB	2011	Broken hand	10	114	94	1	8	24
L.J. Smith	Phi	TE	2007	Sports hernia	16	86	99	0	10	23
Kevin Smith	Det	RB	2010	Knee surgery	13	131	162	3	6	21
Joey Galloway	TB	WR	2008	Groin	15	130	81	0	9	11
Laurence Maroney	NE	RB	2010	Thigh	15	123	128	2	4	10
Tom Brady	NE	QB	2008	Foot	16	378	4	0	1	3
Jerry Porter	Oak	WR	2006	Coach's decision	16	117	138	4	4	1
Peyton Manning	Ind	QB	2011	Neck surgeries	16	279	20	0	0	0
Terry Glenn	Dal	WR	2007	Knee surgery	15	136	86	0	1	0

HacheMan · Sep 1, 2013

[h=1]Rookie performance history lesson[/h][h=3]Have first-year players lived up to expectations in fantasy leagues?[/h]By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

If I've been asked one question this summer more than any other, it's this: "So, Harris, who's this year's Doug Martin?"

I have an intertwined relationship with Martin as a fantasy force, because on the Fantasy Underground podcast last year, I said how much I loved Martin on film, and that even though the results were moderate, I expected him to break out. And he did, in a major way. That projection earned me some acclaim, and I believe that's why folks are asking me to find the next Muscle Hamster.

My standard answer to this question is, "If I could tell you that, I wouldn't be doing this for a living. I'd be in Vegas."

It shouldn't shock you that it's very difficult to foresee massive rookie breakouts before the season begins. There are dozens of factors that go into such unexpected greatness, including raw skill, health, depth-chart shenanigans, offensive line, quarterback, play calling, momentum, weather, what's on the buffet table, etc. Once I can start watching game film, I'm sure I'll have some thoughts on who looks good and who looks not so good.

For the moment, though, I thought I'd take subjectivity out of it, and simply try to address how strong we are as a fantasy football community at predicting how good rookies will be. Do the rookies we project as first-year fantasy contributors regularly pan out? Or do we get carried away with the devils we don't know? Is the fantasy football echo chamber growing ever louder, reinforcing opinions we first formulated in April, until we can't see rookie busts coming until it's too late?

To assess this, I looked at the past eight seasons. I analyzed all rookies' Average Draft Position from '05 to '12, and quantified how successfully these players' first seasons went via Value-Based Drafting. Essentially, I wanted to assess how many highly drafted (and not-so-highly drafted) rookies were able to contribute to your fantasy team. My goal was to uncover whether this year's top rookies will on average tend to live up to the hype, as well as whether it's likely that undrafted fantasy players will lunge from obscurity into the spotlight.

Are Eddie Lacy and Montee Ball sure things?

In the past eight seasons, on average exactly eight running backs have been selected in the top 60 overall picks (or the first six rounds of a standard ESPN.com league):

Year	Player	ADP	VBD
2012	Trent Richardson	36	12
2010	Ryan Mathews	25	66
2010	C.J. Spiller	58	NA
2008	Darren McFadden	35	NA
2007	Marshawn Lynch	37	22
2007	Adrian Peterson	57	5
2006	Reggie Bush	17	21
2006	Joseph Addai	53	16

Of these eight rushers, four outperformed their average draft slot in VBD terms, while four underperformed. (For example, on average Richardson was drafted 36th overall last year, but in VBD terms, his performance was so good that if you could go back in time and redo your '12 draft, Richardson should go 12th.) Perhaps more significantly, however, five of these eight players finished in the VBD top 22 of their first season, while only two -- Spiller and McFadden -- truly busted. While this is nothing close to a statistically significant sample size, it's a good early indication that Eddie Lacy (current ADP: 41) and Montee Ball (current ADP: 53) have decent shots at strong rookie seasons.

How likely is a breakout season from RBs like Giovani Bernard, who'll be drafted between the sixth and 10th rounds?

My draft-day advice tends to involve eschewing QBs and TEs in the early/middle rounds, and instead grabbing lottery-ticket RBs and WRs who have a chance to break out. But when those lottery tickets are running backs, how frequently do they pop?

Last year was incredible, with Doug Martin and Alfred Morris jumping into the elites and posting two of the greatest rookie RB seasons in NFL history. Before that, however, you'll see an entirely mixed bag:

Year	Player	ADP	VBD
2012	Doug Martin	65	3
2012	Alfred Morris	96	5
2011	Mark Ingram	64	NA
2011	Daniel Thomas	73	NA
2010	Jahvid Best	67	48
2009	Knowshon Moreno	65	45
2009	Beanie Wells	93	71
2008	Jonathan Stewart	64	53
2008	Matt Forte	66	5
2008	Kevin Smith	76	34
2008	Felix Jones	86	NA
2008	Brandon Jackson	97	NA
2007	Mike Bell	61	62
2007	DeAngelo Williams	77	NA
2007	Laurence Maroney	87	56
2007	Wali Lundy	100	NA
2006	Cadillac Williams	68	32
2006	J.J. Arrington	76	NA
2006	Ronnie Brown	78	47
2006	Cedric Benson	85	NA

Of the 20 RBs drafted between Rounds 6 and 10 over the past eight years, eight (40 percent) didn't even provide replacement-level value. Yikes. Only three (Martin, Morris and Matt Forte: 15 percent) became true fantasy difference-makers, i.e., the winning lottery tickets we hope we're grabbing in these middle rounds. And in all, only around half of these RBs even outperformed their draft positions in VBD terms.

These are sobering numbers, indeed. I'm not saying that Bernard is doomed to fail; in fact, I planted a flag on him as one of the best values of 2013. But I have to admit that history hasn't been kind to rookies who've enjoyed roughly his level of regard to begin the year.

How frequently do strong rookie RB performers come from outside the top 100 ADP, as Le'Veon Bell, Christine Michael and Johnathan Franklin will try to do this year?

The fondest dream of all fantasy owners is to spend a late-round lottery pick on an RB and have him explode into superstardom right away. Here's a look at all the RBs drafted on average between 101 and 160 over the past eight years:

Year	Player	ADP	VBD
2012	David Wilson	133	NA
2011	Roy Helu	120	69
2009	LeSean McCoy	121	NA
2008	Chris Johnson	130	17
2008	Ray Rice	146	NA
2007	Chris Henry	132	NA
2006	LenDale White	104	NA
2006	Jerious Norwood	127	NA

Well, yuck. In the past 10 years, only Chris Johnson was taken on average in the 11th round or later and produced a superstar rookie year. Helu's 2011 numbers were OK, though he really didn't contribute much during the first 10 weeks of that season. And the other six men on this list were unable to even perform at replacement level. CJ?K's experience shows us it's not impossible, but in sum, this probably indicates we're better off looking at slightly more experienced NFL RBs in these later rounds.

To put a fine point on this RB discussion, there also have been a few RBs who were undrafted in fantasy leagues as rookies, but went on to produce top-50 VBD seasons: LeGarrette Blount in '10 (finished 50th in VBD), Steve Slaton in '08 (finished eighth) and Maurice Jones-Drew in '07 (finished ninth). When you happen upon one of these guys it's spectacular, but all these rookie RB numbers should throw a little cold water on excitement over first-year rushers in general. It seems hard to believe, but exactly six rookie RBs in the past eight years have performed like fantasy first-rounders: Martin, Morris, Forte, Slaton, Peterson and Jones-Drew. And two of those were undrafted in fantasy leagues!

Are highly-regarded WRs like Tavon Austin better bets?

Tavon Austin's current ADP is 78, which is pretty incredible considering he's 5-foot-8 and 174 pounds. Would you believe that on average only four rookie WRs have been drafted in the top 100 over the past eight years?

Year	Player	ADP	VBD
2011	A.J. Green	93	53
2010	Dez Bryant	89	NA
2009	Percy Harvin	98	56
2007	Calvin Johnson	80	NA

This cannot be overstated: Tavon Austin is currently on pace to be drafted higher than any rookie WR over the past eight seasons. If you want one reason why I'm staying away from this young player, despite his incredible open-field skills, there it is. I'm not ready to proclaim that a 2-for-4 recent record among highly drafted rookie wideouts (with Green and Harvin hitting, Bryant and Megatron missing) dooms Austin to failure. In fact, perhaps Austin can be Harvin. But it's sobering to think that if you're drafting him at his ADP this year, you're essentially putting more faith in him than any other wideout since at least '05.

How frequently do later-round WRs like Kenbrell Thompkins, DeAndre Hopkins and Cordarrelle Patterson hit?

The problem with rookie wideouts is that "hitting" is entirely relative. You just don't see first-year WRs dominate in fantasy football. The best rookie WR season over the past eight seasons came from Mike Williams in '10, when he played like a fourth- or fifth-rounder despite being drafted in the 15th round on average:

Year	Player	ADP	VBD
2012	Justin Blackmon	129	91
2012	Stephen Hill	146	NA
2011	Julio Jones	113	57
2010	Mike Williams	147	40
2009	Johnny Knox	131	NA
2005	Braylon Edwards	124	NA
2005	Troy Williamson	142	NA
2005	Mark Clayton	153	NA

Heck, in the period from '05 to '12, only 13 rookie WRs total have posted seasons where they outperformed the baseline wideout, and most of those did so only barely. Undrafted fantasy rookie wideouts such as T.Y. Hilton, Torrey Smith, Hakeem Nicks, Mike Wallace and Austin Collie were intriguing stories who were better than replacement level, but they probably weren't starters on very many championship fantasy teams.

Finally, it seems like a down year for QBs, but will someone like EJ Manuel become fantasy-relevant?

Until Cam Newton, it was bad business to draft a rookie QB. Period. The big pile of awfulness that resulted from taking rookie quarterbacks from '05 to '10 is frankly ridiculous; only the mercurial Vince Young posted a first season that was even close to being starter-worthy. But all that has changed over the past two years:

Year	Player	ADP	VBD
2012	Robert Griffin III	45	24
2012	Andrew Luck	130	50
2012	Russell Wilson	NA	54
2011	Cam Newton	143	6
2011	Andy Dalton	NA	94
2010	Sam Bradford	135	NA
2009	Mark Sanchez	117	NA
2008	Matt Ryan	NA	86
2007	JaMarcus Russell	149	NA
2006	Vince Young	132	63
2006	Matt Leinart	160	NA

Griffin, Luck and Newton were raging success stories; Luck and Newton were drafted to be fantasy backups, and went loopy. And Wilson, thoroughly undrafted in '12 fantasy drafts, went on to dominate the NFL in the second half of last year.

EJ Manuel and Geno Smith are the two rookie QBs with shots to start early in the season (I'm not counting undrafted free agent Jeff Tuel just yet), and evaluating them on the same level as RG III, Newton, Luck and Wilson probably isn't fair. I dismiss Smith's shot at being a fantasy factor both because he's on what looks like a bad New York Jets team, and because his preseason action has been shaky. As for Manuel? As nervous as I am about the Florida State rookie as a passer, I admit that he shares some qualities with Newton. He's the same height, only 10 pounds lighter, and almost exactly the same speed as a runner. Of course, while Newton was a Heisman winner and national champion at Auburn, Manuel had bouts of head-clutching mechanics and disappointment during his collegiate years for the Seminoles. But as a dangerous open-field runner who may deliver more punishment than he receives, Manuel may already be there. The brave new world begun by Newton, Griffin and the others makes me less afraid to take a late-round shot on a rookie QB, and this year, that rookie QB would be Manuel. His current ADP is 141, and I think it maybe should be a little higher. I'm considering taking him with a late-round pick in leagues of any size.

HacheMan · Sep 1, 2013

[h=1]Preseason injury concerns warranted[/h][h=3]In most cases, ADPs decline, and the risk outweighs the reward[/h]By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

If Arian Foster's calf injury suffered during OTAs, or subsequent back injury suffered at the onset of training camp, concerns his 2013 fantasy owners, they're sure not exhibiting it at the draft table.

Foster's ADP (average draft position) has scarcely changed in the past week, slipping by only one-tenth, and even at the height of "Foster injury panic" -- between Aug. 14-21 -- it dropped by only half a spot (2.9 to 3.4). What's more, the ESPN fantasy staff's ranking of him has gone unchanged: He remains a firm No. 2.

It's optimistic treatment of a player who won't take a single preseason carry, who has caused NFL insiders to believe he might cede some September work to Ben Tate and who 10 days ago had some doubt cast upon his Week 1 availability. One might wonder whether the smarter play in fantasy drafts is to take the conservative approach with an injured player, considering how close in value the next three players behind him are.

History supports this strategy.

Over a period of seven seasons -- the 2006 to 2012 campaigns, to frame this study -- 82 players were in a state of "injury flux" during fantasy draft season, which we'll define as either missing time late in the preseason or the preseason in its entirety, or up to the first four games of the regular season. These guidelines were by design: We want comparison points to this year's crop of questionable-or-worse-for-Week-1 players, which include such names as Justin Blackmon (four-game suspension), Josh Gordon (two-game suspension), Rob Gronkowski (back), Jordy Nelson (knee surgery) and Isaiah Pead (one-game suspension). These are the players about whom fantasy owners have the most relevant draft-day questions, and whom fantasy owners might be pushing down draft boards accordingly.

Admittedly, this is a somewhat subjective study, considering the varying types and severity of injuries, not to mention the inclusion of holdouts and suspensions. It would be impossible to identify and evaluate every such situation fairly; absorb this as more a cautionary lesson than a hard-and-fast rule.

To be clear, this study is not designed to address major injury questions, or to use 2013 examples, Le'Veon Bell (Lisfranc), Michael Crabtree (Achilles), Percy Harvin (hip) or Jonathan Stewart (ankle). Players known to be at risk of more than four missed regular-season games -- or in a few of these cases at least six -- are not included in the study. It's not difficult to judge that these are all significant injury risks.

Here are the findings about that 82-man sample:

• These players combined suffered a 33.8 percent decline in total fantasy production during those seasons, or 23.2 percent going by fantasy points per game.
• Only 20 of them scored more fantasy points than the preceding year; 12 of them enjoyed an increase of 20 percent or more, four an increase of between 10 and 20 percent and four an increase of up to 10 percent.
• Only three experienced an increase of 100 or more fantasy points.
• Twenty-two suffered a decline of 100 fantasy points or more.
• These players missed an average of 1.4 games to begin their seasons, and 4.0 games during the course of said seasons.
• Three of them missed the entire first half of the season (through Week 9).

For more details, the entire chart of players examined can be seen at column's end.

This is not to say that every preseason injury question mark developed into a bust. Consider the three players whose fantasy point totals increased by 100 points or more during their respective seasons, two of which happened in 2012:

Randy Moss, 2007: He missed the entire preseason with a hamstring injury, yet recovered in time to set a single-season record for receiving touchdowns (23), not to mention tally the second-most fantasy points all-time by a wide receiver (280).

Adrian Peterson, 2012: You cannot possibly have forgotten this story. Peterson defied the odds in recovering from Dec. 30, 2011, knee surgery to reconstruct his ACL and repair his MCL, outscoring all running backs by at least 49 fantasy points.

Trent Richardson, 2012: After entering the league with somewhat of a reputation for being injury-prone, Richardson succumbed to knee surgery in early August, missing the preseason. He would return in time to play 15 of the Cleveland Browns' 16 games, notching the third-most productive rookie season by a running back and sixth by a rookie overall (188 points).

The problem, however, is that for every such success story, there are twice as many examples of disappointment. Here are just five of the most catastrophic tales of players who entered a season with a questionable status:

Tom Brady, 2008: Yes, this one is probably unfair. After all, Brady's preseason injury absence had nothing to do with the torn ACL he suffered as a result of a Bernard Pollard takedown seven minutes and 33 seconds into his season. But facts are facts; he did enter that year with questions about his foot, an unspecified, mysterious injury. (Then again, it's the New England Patriots, so what's new?)

Peyton Manning, 2011: You'll remember this one as the "four neck surgeries for Peyton Manning" year, only one of them (on May 23) reported before most leagues had drafted. Manning's draft stock plummeted precipitously throughout that August amidst questions he'd miss multiple regular-season weeks, but it wasn't until Sept. 9 that he'd succumb to surgery No. 3 -- and at that time it was only the second one publicly announced -- ending his season.

Larry Johnson, 2007: His was a 25-day holdout concluding Aug. 21, giving him 19 days to prepare for the season. His was a catastrophic collapse; he appeared in only eight games and suffered a 225-point decline in fantasy production. That said, the holdout alone shouldn't be blamed; Johnson's 416 rushing attempts in 2006 set an all-time record, his 457 touches the second most in history.

Maurice Jones-Drew, 2012: Another holdout story, his a 38-day wait that ended with only one week to go before the season, Jones-Drew's tale shares an important parallel with Arian Foster's. Jones-Drew was another clear first-round fantasy talent at the time, one who still had the faith of his owners (and prospective owners) -- this columnist included -- despite his preseason absence. He would wind up playing just six games, suffering a 193-point decline in fantasy production.

Brett Favre, 2010: May 21 surgery on his left ankle cast a shadow on Favre's draft status, fresh off his statistical rejuvenation of 2009, and limited him to only two preseason appearances. He would endure the most trying year of his career -- both on and off the field -- suffering in-season setbacks with his ankle before a shoulder injury finally snapped his 297-consecutive-start streak in December. His 90 fantasy points were his worst seasonal total in 19 years as an NFL starter, and they represented a 184-point drop-off from his 2009 total.

What this tells us is that, while there's no one-size-fits-all rule for question-mark players, the entire crop resides much more in "risk/reward" territory than we sometimes give credit, the risk considerably greater than the reward. This is a critical lesson with Foster; it supports the claims of those who plan to push him to the back end of the first round, as this columnist does (he's my No. 7 overall player).

It also validates any fantasy owner's strategy to take a conservative approach to drafting any injury/in-season absence risk, based on the notion that far more past examples than not resulted in disappointment. Yes, Rob Gronkowski's continually plummeting ADP is sensible; his No. 50 (53.1 ADP) status might, in fact, be generous. Yes, Jordy Nelson's No. 23 ADP among wide receivers (63rd overall, 66.7) is fair and perhaps also generous, considering he ranked 20th at his position in fantasy points per game in 2012 (9.5).

That's not to say that either player, or even Foster, couldn't recover brilliantly and repeat his 2012 effort. But if you have doubts about any, they've got validity.

[h=3]The full 82-man injury study[/h]
Players are ranked by their fantasy point totals in the given season. "Prev. year" is the player's number of games played and fantasy points scored in the previous year. In the "Injury" year, "Pre" represents the number of preseason games, "G" the number of regular-season games, the player played in the given season.

<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>

	<CENTER></CENTER>	<CENTER></CENTER>	<CENTER></CENTER>		<CENTER>Prev. year</CENTER>	<CENTER>"Injury" year</CENTER>
Player	<CENTER>Team</CENTER>	<CENTER>Pos</CENTER>	<CENTER>Year</CENTER>	Injury	<CENTER>G</CENTER>	<CENTER>FPTS</CENTER>	<CENTER>ADP</CENTER>	<CENTER>Pre</CENTER>	<CENTER>G</CENTER>	<CENTER>FPTS</CENTER>
Adrian Peterson	Min	RB	2012	Knee surgery	12	181	15	0	16	297
Randy Moss	NE	WR	2007	Hamstring	13	67	41	0	16	280
Peyton Manning	Ind	QB	2008	Knee surgery	16	268	10	0	16	245
Arian Foster	Hou	RB	2011	Hamstring	16	313	2	2	13	238
Carson Palmer	Cin	QB	2006	Knee surgery	16	256	25	2	16	228
Ben Roethlisberger	Pit	QB	2010	4-G Suspension	15	257	116	3	12	201
Donovan McNabb	Phi	QB	2007	Knee surgery	10	194	36	2	14	197
Trent Richardson	Cle	RB	2012	Knee	0	0	36	0	15	188
Maurice Jones-Drew	Jac	RB	2010	Knee	16	255	3	2	14	186
Ben Roethlisberger	Pit	QB	2006	Appendectomy	12	160	81	3	15	175
Steven Jackson	StL	RB	2008	Holdout	12	154	6	0	12	175
Steve Smith	Car	WR	2008	2-G Suspension	15	138	33	2	14	172
Frank Gore	SF	RB	2007	Hand	16	249	4	0	15	170
Steve Smith	Car	WR	2006	Hamstring	16	227	14	1	14	169
Plaxico Burress	NYG	WR	2007	Back/illness	15	150	53	0	16	167
Donovan McNabb	Wsh	QB	2010	Ankle	14	223	100	2	13	165
Chris Johnson	Ten	RB	2011	Holdout	16	216	3	0	16	157
T.J. Houshmandzadeh	Cin	WR	2006	Heel	14	138	45	3	14	155
Matt Cassel	KC	QB	2009	Knee	16	231	85	3	15	154
Marques Colston	NO	WR	2011	Knee surgery	15	138	44	2	14	154
Knowshon Moreno	Den	RB	2010	Hamstring	16	149	35	0	13	150
Pierre Thomas	NO	RB	2009	Knee	15	148	41	2	14	148
Brandon Marshall	Den	WR	2008	1-G Suspension	16	170	54	4	15	147
Larry Fitzgerald	Ari	WR	2010	Knee	16	180	14	1	16	146
Fred Jackson	Buf	RB	2010	Broken hand	16	157	102	1	16	142
Rob Bironas	Ten	K	2008	Groin	16	146	177	0	16	140
Thomas Jones	NYJ	RB	2007	Calf	16	160	26	1	16	132
Vernon Davis	SF	TE	2010	Knee	16	168	52	1	16	129
Mike Wallace	Pit	WR	2012	Holdout	16	162	23	0	15	123
Anquan Boldin	Ari	WR	2009	Hamstring	12	163	29	2	15	121
Miles Austin	Dal	WR	2012	Hamstring	10	97	63	0	16	121
Laveranues Coles	NYJ	WR	2008	Thigh	12	94	75	0	16	121
Terrell Owens	Buf	WR	2009	Toe	16	156	30	1	16	115
Kevin Jones	Wsh	RB	2007	Broken foot	12	149	89	2	13	113
Lance Moore	NO	WR	2011	Groin surgery	16	114	125	2	14	110
Willis McGahee	Bal	RB	2008	Knee surgery	15	174	18	0	13	109
Jeremy Maclin	Phi	WR	2011	Illness	16	149	43	0	13	109
T.J. Houshmandzadeh	Cin	WR	2008	Hamstring	16	179	26	0	15	107
Clinton Portis	Wsh	RB	2006	Shoulder	16	229	9	1	8	103
Michael Crabtree	SF	WR	2010	Neck	11	67	50	0	16	103
Braylon Edwards	Cle	WR	2008	Concussion/heel	16	212	20	1	16	102
Santonio Holmes	NYJ	WR	2010	4-G Suspension	16	145	93	4	12	102
Darren McFadden	Oak	RB	2011	Orbital bone	13	208	22	0	7	100
Dez Bryant	Dal	WR	2010	Ankle	0	0	89	0	12	98
Larry Johnson	KC	RB	2007	Holdout	16	317	3	1	8	92
Deion Branch	Sea	WR	2006	Holdout	16	120	99	0	14	92
Travis Henry	Den	RB	2007	Knee	14	160	18	2	12	91
Dwayne Bowe	KC	WR	2012	Holdout	16	137	60	2	13	91
Brett Favre	Min	QB	2010	Ankle surgery	16	274	53	2	13	90
Jonathan Stewart	Car	RB	2010	Achilles	16	178	41	0	14	89
Ryan Mathews	SD	RB	2012	Broken clavicle	14	173	34	1	12	87
Derek Anderson	Cle	QB	2008	Concussion	16	243	46	2	10	83
Deuce McAllister	NO	RB	2008	Knee surgery	3	5	94	3	13	83
Hakeem Nicks	NYG	WR	2012	Broken foot	15	154	29	1	13	82
Antonio Bryant	TB	WR	2009	Knee surgery	16	157	86	0	13	79
Kenny Britt	Ten	WR	2012	1-G Suspension	3	43	91	2	14	78
Mike Vanderjagt	Dal	K	2006	Groin	16	126	143	2	10	70
Kevin Walter	Hou	WR	2009	Hamstring	16	130	100	3	14	68
Plaxico Burress	NYG	WR	2008	Ankle	16	167	32	0	10	65
Marshawn Lynch	Buf	RB	2009	3-G Suspension	15	173	51	4	13	63
Daniel Thomas	Mia	RB	2011	Hamstring	0	0	73	4	13	62
Sidney Rice	Sea	WR	2011	Shoulder	6	38	70	2	9	57
Maurice Jones-Drew	Jac	RB	2012	Holdout	16	249	9	0	6	56
Jonathan Stewart	Car	RB	2012	Ankle	16	133	67	3	9	54
Brian Westbrook	Phi	RB	2009	Ankle surgery	14	209	24	0	8	51
Dallas Clark	Ind	TE	2010	Leg	16	163	39	0	6	51
Beanie Wells	Ari	RB	2010	Knee	16	121	29	4	13	51
Matt Hasselbeck	Sea	QB	2008	Back	16	231	50	1	7	50
Kevin Curtis	Phi	WR	2008	Sports hernia	16	154	102	3	9	47
Bobby Engram	Sea	WR	2008	Shoulder	16	143	110	1	13	45
Vincent Jackson	SD	WR	2010	Holdout	15	166	129	0	5	42
Rudi Johnson	Det	RB	2008	Hamstring	11	74	59	0	14	36
Rashard Mendenhall	Pit	RB	2012	Knee surgery	15	149	131	0	6	24
Ryan Torain	Wsh	RB	2011	Broken hand	10	114	94	1	8	24
L.J. Smith	Phi	TE	2007	Sports hernia	16	86	99	0	10	23
Kevin Smith	Det	RB	2010	Knee surgery	13	131	162	3	6	21
Joey Galloway	TB	WR	2008	Groin	15	130	81	0	9	11
Laurence Maroney	NE	RB	2010	Thigh	15	123	128	2	4	10
Tom Brady	NE	QB	2008	Foot	16	378	4	0	1	3
Jerry Porter	Oak	WR	2006	Coach's decision	16	117	138	4	4	1
Peyton Manning	Ind	QB	2011	Neck surgeries	16	279	20	0	0	0
Terry Glenn	Dal	WR	2007	Knee surgery	15	136	86	0	1	0

HacheMan · Sep 1, 2013

2013 injury outlook: Running backs

By Stephania Bell | ESPN.com

preseason injury outlook on fantasy-noteworthy running backs. This column will be updated throughout the summer, and the latest information will appear toward the top of the column:
Andre Brown, New York Giants: Brown can't seem to catch a break. Or maybe he catches one too many. During the Giants' fourth preseason game Thursday, Brown absorbed a blow from a defender's helmet while being tackled, fracturing his left leg. This is the same leg Brown broke last November, an injury which ultimately ended his season. Last year, Brown required surgery and had a plate inserted to stabilize his broken fibula, the skinny bone on the outside of the lower leg. Based on Brown's reaction after the game, this injury -- at least initially -- sounds less serious and may not cost him nearly as much time.

According to ESPN New York's Ohm Youngmisuk, Brown was encouraged after the game. "Spirits are high, I'm positive," Brown said. "And I'm looking forward to coming back this season. It's not as serious as it was last year." Brown told reporters that he had "a little crack right above" the area where his plate was inserted last year (which would signify an injury to his fibula) and that he will not need surgery.

Although Brown says there are more tests to be done, there is certainly reason to be positive. If indeed this is a small crack of the fibula and no surgery is required, it's feasible to think Brown could return to action within a month. A move to injured reserve/designated to return would require him to be out for at least eight weeks, but Brown is already anticipating a much quicker return. "I feel I can come back from this within a couple of weeks, and that's how small it is," Brown said. "We are definitely looking at it positively."

Fantasy owners who have drafted Brown should not be panicking to unload him. Fantasy owners who did not draft Brown may want to procure him from those who may have already panicked. The only caution is that he may be more susceptible to another similar injury in this leg. The medical staff is likely to protect the area with some kind of shell or extra padding but when a running back's legs get hit and tangled in a pile, there are no guarantees. Then again, no running back's legs are really guaranteed when it comes to this game. If later tests confirm Brown's initial impressions of his injury, his return to action could come soon enough to still yield plenty of value.

Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers: The rookie running back has been unable to stay on the field consistently this preseason. First it was soreness in his left knee, which caused him to miss the Steelers' preseason opener. Days later he aggravated the knee in practice. He returned quickly enough to make an appearance in the Steelers' second preseason game, but that outing was also cut short due to injury. This time it was not his knee; Bell sprained his right foot after playing in just one series.

The big question now is how long this latest injury, called a midfoot sprain by coach Mike Tomlin (originally referred to as a Lisfranc sprain in ESPN reports), will keep Bell on the sidelines. At this point, there is no timetable being offered by the Steelers, but on the positive side, Bell's injury will not require surgery.

So what is a realistic expectation for fantasy owners? And why does panic ensue when we hear the term "Lisfranc" associated with a foot injury?

As for what fantasy owners can expect, the only sure thing is that this will be a multi-week injury. Bell has already been ruled out of the Steelers' third preseason game, and while the Steelers are not saying when they expect him back -- in their defense, it's too early to make that projection with any degree of certainty -- early reports suggest a recovery time of 6-8 weeks. That timeframe is fairly typical for non-surgical Lisfranc sprains, but it should be noted that depending on the actual degree of injury, the athlete's ability to heal and whether any setbacks occur along the way, that time estimate could fluctuate in either direction. Ray Fittipaldo of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported Thursday that Bell said he was walking without discomfort and feeling positive about his progress. While that's great news, the big tests will come when he has to push off with running and pivot, twist and cut on that foot. Although the details of the injury aren't available, if it's indeed a Lisfranc sprain, it's difficult to imagine Bell returning to football before late September. It's critical to the long-term foot health of any player who suffers this type of injury that complete healing occurs prior to return to play, hence the slow progression, even when the player says he feels fine.

Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers: Foot and ankle problems have been a sore spot for Stewart since he entered the league, but prior to 2012, Stewart had played in all 16 games in three of his four professional seasons. In fact, he had missed only two games in 2010. That changed in 2012 when Stewart was sidelined for seven games with a finicky high-ankle sprain, which ultimately required January surgery. The good news for Stewart is that Dr. Bob Anderson, his surgeon, is also a Panthers team physician and knows him and his history well, so he can be carefully monitored. His activity will be controlled throughout the summer, but the expectation is that Stewart will gradually increase his participation during camp. In Stewart's case, he largely has been able to stay on the field in his career, which bodes well, but the bigger question may be how the Panthers will view his role this season.

Addendum: Stewart was placed on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list, which means he will miss at least the first six games of the season.

Arian Foster, Houston Texans: It might not be a preseason without an Arian Foster soft tissue injury. We all remember the infamous hamstring MRI image Foster tweeted two years ago, which sent fantasy owners into a panic. No MRI images this time, but the sight of Foster on crutches in May might have had the same effect. The crutches help offload the calf so he is not forced to push off through the leg while walking, allowing the muscle to recover with the goal of minimizing any risk of worsening the situation. No panic is necessary this time, but it does remind us that Foster's body is a finely tuned machine. The same physical qualities that make him such a talented back may also make him susceptible to intermittent soft tissue strains. Still, despite a heavy workload as a starter, he has played in all 16 games two out of three seasons. Foster should be ready for the season, even if the team opts to lessen his workload during training camp, and the one place it won't shy away from using him is in the red zone. As long as he stays healthy, he will be highly productive, but a bit of risk comes with the territory.

Addendum: It's Aug. 19, and Foster, still on the PUP list, has yet to participate in a team practice. Now should fantasy owners be worried? They wouldn't be unjustified in being a little apprehensive, but it might be a mistake to panic. While Foster's situation bears monitoring, it's not yet clear whether the back ailment currently sidelining him (yes, his back, not his calf, is keeping him out of practice at the moment) will present a problem for him once the regular season arrives.

Here's the information we have. On Aug. 18, head coach Gary Kubiak acknowledged that Foster's back soreness -- which cropped up during the preseason -- is still present. Kubiak said Foster has been receiving injections as a measure of treatment for the back soreness but noted, "It's causing some discomfort and it's something that's going to take some time for him to get through." Kubiak said that Foster has more recently experienced some soreness into his legs, a byproduct of his injection treatment. When asked if there was concern about nerve damage with Foster, Kubiak said, "No, they've done numerous MRIs and everything looks fine. They're just trying to make sure that he's comfortable with how he is feeling and where we're at before we say 'go.'"

Although he said he believes players need to get practice reps to be ready to play, Kubiak conceded that doing whatever it takes to get Foster back healthy for the season is the priority. "We've got to do the smart thing here," said Kubiak, adding, "… when he's ready to go, I know Arian can make up a lot of time very quickly."

There are a couple of takeaways from Kubiak's comments that should be considered positives. The first and most obvious is that all the imaging studies done on Foster's back look "fine." The interpretation then is that there is no large herniated disk impinging on a nerve, no significant bone spur or any other obvious structural finding that would pose a bigger cause for concern. Also, it is not uncommon for individuals to experience soreness both locally (in the area of the initial problem) and referred (in another area related to but removed from the original site of the symptoms) following spinal injections. The expectation, if all progresses well, is that those symptoms will resolve in time for the start of the season, as long as no activity provokes them in the interim. This may be the reason the medical staff wishes to grant Foster some additional downtime. While it would be nice for Foster to get some reps and work at game speed before Week 1, especially to provide peace of mind for all interested parties that he is indeed healthy, he has shown in the past that he can ramp up his activity quickly and be successful.

It would seem the biggest potential concern with Foster would be for him to return to action too quickly, not only because his back soreness could spike but also because it could translate to a problem for his hamstrings. Low back pain and hamstring strains can be interrelated; one consequence of back pain can be guarding or protective spasm in the hamstring muscles which, in turn, can make the hamstrings more susceptible to injury. Even if Foster could forcibly push through discomfort in practice, the Texans would not want him to return only to leave with a more serious hamstring strain that could sideline him for multiple weeks.

The Texans plan to re-evaluate Foster on Tuesday, at which point the outlook for his health should become a bit clearer. If he is indeed able to return to practice within a few days and ease his way back into action, there would be little doubt about his availability for Week 1. This back injury might then translate to a slightly increased risk for Foster going forward, but it wouldn't significantly affect his value. If, however, Foster is not cleared to return to practice for the remainder of the preseason, the questions about his health -- and the apprehension -- should justifiably increase.

Information from ESPN.com's Tania Ganguli was used in this report.

Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars: When Jones-Drew injured his left foot last year, no one knew it would be season-ending. In fact, the team went from one week to the next expressing hope Jones-Drew could return. Unfortunately, some midfoot injuries are tricky, in that they are not serious enough to warrant immediate surgery yet ultimately fail to respond to conservative treatment. Such was the case for Jones-Drew and after he was unable to progress during the season, he underwent surgical stabilization in December. After several months of being in a boot, Jones-Drew is on the rehab train and making progress. Although he is not participating in June minicamps, the expectation is that he will be on the field when the Jaguars' training camp begins in late July. While the increase in his activity will be gradual, if there are no setbacks he should open the season on time. The relatively uncomplicated repair of Jones-Drew's injury bodes well for him going forward, and it's worth keeping in mind he is still only 28 years old. To date, he has one of the best track records as far as health for a running back, playing all 16 games in four of his seven seasons. Last year was the first season in which he played fewer than 14 games. While this injury takes him down a notch in terms of percentage of games played in a year, it shouldn't lessen his overall draft stock significantly, especially given that his knees benefited from some additional rest last year. As long as his football conditioning improves along with his foot, there is little reason for concern with Jones-Drew.

Addendum (Aug. 2): Jones-Drew was on the field with his teammates when training camp opened, albeit on a limited snap count. Still, he has been participating in both running and passing plays and introducing his foot to cutting maneuvers. The Jaguars maintain they will ease him back into action, but so far, so good for a target of Week 1.

Ahmad Bradshaw, Indianapolis Colts: It took a while for Bradshaw to find a home, but by the second week of June he had landed in the Midwest. The Colts obviously felt his talent outweighed the risk of resurgence of foot problems which have plagued Bradshaw for several years. Should fantasy owners feel the same way? In a word, yes. Bradshaw underwent another surgical procedure on his foot to address a chronic non-union in his fifth metatarsal (it had been surgically repaired with a screw once in 2010, then addressed with a paste when he began having troubles due to a stress injury, but ultimately required a second surgery to replace the screw). Now that Bradshaw has had a more extensive stabilization combined with adequate time to recover, the stress fracture should no longer be an issue. He expects to be ready to participate in training camp in late July. His feet and ankles may not be perfect, but even last year Bradshaw showed his willingness to play through pain. He also sustained a neck injury in 2012 which kept him out for a game and does raise a concern of potential recurrence. With only a one-year contract, however, Bradshaw needs to make the most of his time and should see his fair share of action in Indianapolis.

Addendum (Aug. 2): Bradshaw opened the preseason on the Colts' PUP list and remains in a walking boot on his surgically repaired right foot. This is not overly alarming, though, given that the goal is to have a healthy Bradshaw for the regular season, not the preseason. There is no need to subject his foot to excess work out of the gate, and the Colts had previously indicated they planned to ease him into the mix in camp. The expectation is still that Bradshaw will be ready by Week 1.

Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings: Peterson put any and all critics to rest with his dominating performance in 2012 fresh off ACL/MCL surgery on his left knee. He was so fresh off the injury, in fact, that the Vikings did not confirm his Week 1 playing status until hours before kickoff, torturing fantasy owners far and wide. But the pain of the uncertainty heading into the season wore off quickly, as Peterson delivered week in and week out in a way no one could have predicted. Unfortunately, he has set the bar for performance following ACL surgery at a virtually unattainable level for all those who come after him; his recovery was the exception, not the rule. While no one is concerned about his knee heading into this season, Peterson did undergo a different offseason procedure this year, specifically a core muscle surgery (formerly known as a sports hernia repair). Somehow, Peterson continued to perform well despite the presence of the injury late last season and once the Vikings were finished, he took care of the issue via an operation. After going through intensive rehab last year, Peterson has indicated this recovery is like a walk in the park. Any doubters out there in fantasy land? Didn't think so.

Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks: Unlike in 2011, Lynch was not scratched from a game during warmups in 2012, but his back did continue to bother him occasionally. Despite appearing on the injury report for multiple weeks last season, Lynch played in all 16 games for the first time in his professional career. The back troubles are not likely going away, but neither are Lynch's touches.

Trent Richardson, Cleveland Browns: One thing you have to acknowledge about Richardson: He knows how to play through pain. Richardson played in 15 games in his rookie year, despite entering the season fresh off of arthroscopic knee surgery and suffering a significant rib injury in Week 6 (the only game he did not play was in Week 17 due to a high-ankle sprain). Alarm bells sounded during OTAs when the Browns announced Richardson was dealing with a shin injury which would sideline him until training camp. The shutdown here is proactive, as the concern would be progression toward a tibial stress fracture, which could ultimately sideline him for multiple weeks. Early rest should allow him the opportunity to heal before the season begins. According to the Cleveland Plain Dealer, the Browns do expect him to be ready for camp in July. His workload in his final college season at Alabama, along with his rookie year in Cleveland, have some worried -- especially given his injury history -- that he will not hold up for long. They might be right in terms of all-out NFL longevity, especially if he remains an every-down back. But, if his toughness is any indication, it will take something substantial to sideline Richardson on any given Sunday.

Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs: Last year, there was some uncertainty about what to expect from Charles heading into the 2012 season, as he was coming off of ACL reconstruction in his left knee. Fortunately for Charles, his injury happened so early in the 2011 season (Week 2) that he was itching to play by Week 1 of 2012. Despite playing in a mediocre offense, Charles had seven games in which he totaled more than 100 yards and ended up with more than 1,500 rushing yards on the season. Given that most football players have better statistics in their second year following ACL surgery, Charles should be primed for a big season. And with new head coach Andy Reid at the helm and quarterback Alex Smith under center, Charles may have even more reason to smile. He seems to be aware of the opportunity, telling the Kansas City Star in June, "This offense might be the best thing that ever happened to me." Charles did have his toe stepped on in OTAs in late May, but X-rays revealed no fracture and he resumed practice within three days. Fantasy owners have much to like here.

Addendum (Aug. 16): On Aug. 12, Charles went down with a foot injury in practice, and the social media world went into a panic. Now that the term "Lisfranc" is familiar to fantasy football audiences - it's often associated with ending seasons prematurely, as was the case with Santonio Holmes and Maurice Jones-Drew -- the worst was immediately assumed in Charles's case. It turns out that was a bit premature. Not only did Charles sustain a relatively minor injury, his pain wasn't even in the same area of the foot Lisfranc-type damage occurs. Charles experienced pain on the outside of his foot. As Chiefs' athletic trainer Rick Burkholder told reporters, "There's a tendon that attaches right at that spot and that's what is sore. … That's why they call it a strain and [now] he is sore up his leg, which is natural and we expected to see that."

Burkholder went on to say that Charles had also seen two orthopedic surgeons, noting, "We agree that he has a mild foot strain, and he is day-to-day." (Strain refers to a muscle or tendon injury, sprain refers to a ligamentous injury.) Charles will not play in the Chiefs' second preseason game as a precaution, but this should not threaten his status for Week 1.

DeMarco Murray, Dallas Cowboys: Murray insists he isn't injury-prone. His history thus far in his young career suggests otherwise. In 2011, Murray played in 13 games before his season ended prematurely as the result of a fractured right ankle and high-ankle sprain. Last year, the number of games played dropped to 10 after a left foot sprain sidelined him for Weeks 7-12. When Murray returned to play, he never looked back and was able to run without issue the remainder of the season. Still, there are questions as to how he will hold up in this his third professional season. Given that he was largely held out of spring OTAs due to a hamstring strain, the worries remain, particularly since hamstring injuries have plagued him at various times since his college years at Oklahoma. For his part, Murray waved off the early preseason concerns, telling the Dallas Morning News, "I am going to play all 16 this year." I like the confidence and the talent but need the proof.

Ryan Mathews, San Diego Chargers: There is so much talent there that you want to believe in his potential. But there is also so much apparent fragility it's impossible to overlook the risk. When the number of broken clavicles in a season (two) outnumbers the touchdowns scored (one) for a running back, there is no denying the injury concerns. After a rookie year that was marred by a high-ankle sprain which seemed to linger, perhaps the result of attempting to return too quickly, subsequent soft tissue ailments in 2011 were significant enough to result in continued missed time for Mathews, even in the form of early exits if not entire games. The hope was that 2012 would be different, as the team looked to be leaning toward him for primary-back production. Then, on the first carry of the first preseason game, Mathews' first injury of the year happened; seemingly routine contact resulted in a broken right collarbone. The second clavicle fracture came in Week 15 against the Panthers and resulted in Mathews being placed on injured reserve. In between the two fractures, Mathews dealt with a minor ankle issue and neck stiffness, although neither kept him from playing, along with fumble challenges. Mathews is healthy as of this preseason writing, but given his history the question in everyone's mind is not so much can he stay healthy, but how long until the first injury crops up. Until he shows he can endure an entire season in the NFL, or even the majority of one, the risk appears to outweigh the reward.

Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders: The 12 games McFadden played in 2012 were a big improvement over the seven he played the prior season, but he still has yet to post a full slate of games in the NFL. In 2011, a foot sprain turned from a week-to-week injury to a season-ender and it's hard to blame McFadden for something that should have been acknowledged sooner by the team. To his credit, he returned strong in 2012 and looked in the preseason as if it could be a banner year. The regular season disappointed, however, and a high-ankle sprain midway through did not help. Leg injuries have been McFadden's nemesis and are too numerous to ignore heading into this season. It's hard to believe he'll be only 26 years old when the season gets underway, but it suggests he's still got potential. That said, the injury frequency remains a worry for fantasy owners.

Fred Jackson, Buffalo Bills: Jackson was as unlucky as any running back in 2012. After ending his 2011 season on injured reserve due to a fractured right fibula, Jackson worked hard to ensure he'd stay healthy the following year. Unfortunately, an awkward play in Week 1 resulted in a lateral collateral ligament (LCL) sprain in his right knee, which, he later told the Bills' official website, never fully recovered in-season. Jackson went on to sustain a concussion in Week 10, which caused him to miss a game, then sustained a Grade 2 medial collateral ligament (MCL) sprain (also to his right knee) in Week 14, ending his season. Although he's 32 years old, his route to the NFL actually resulted in less mileage during his earlier years and Jackson could still post a strong season in 2013, although that may depend on how much the Bills lean on C.J. Spiller.

Mikel Leshoure, Detroit Lions: After serving a two-game suspension, Leshoure participated in the remaining 14 games of the 2012 season, despite entering the season coming off Achilles surgery and dealing with a variety of other ailments throughout the fall. Hamstring, groin and calf strains were all part of his in-season injury list and may have been associated, at least in part, with his return from serious injury. Power and explosiveness are usually lacking the first year following Achilles tendon repair and Leshoure's running should be improved heading into this season. For what it's worth, a hamstring ailment kept Leshoure out of early OTAs this spring, leading one to wonder whether that's a signal of more soft tissue injuries on the horizon. Now that Reggie Bush is in the mix in Detroit, Leshoure will have to show he can stay healthy enough to command more carries.

HacheMan · Sep 3, 2013

Free-agent finds for Week 1

By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

After a monthslong slog of offseason activity and quasi-meaningless preseason games, it's finally go time. The Baltimore Ravens and Denver Broncos kick things off Thursday, and there will be a full skein of games Sunday. But is your fantasy squad in prime-time shape? If, for example, you're rostering Johnathan Franklin or Zac Stacy in anything other than a dynasty league, it probably isn't. Give your team a tuneup and peruse some suggested adds before the games start counting.

Standard ESPN-League Finds

Christine Michael, RB, Seattle Seahawks (owned in 35.7 percent of ESPN.com leagues): I'll admit I was skeptical of Michael at first. He was an injury and discipline problem at Texas A&M, and I've been a Robert Turbin supporter. But watching Michael in the preseason was eye-opening; there might not have been a player about whom my opinion changed more. Unlike many other workout warriors whose supposed impressive size and speed never really translated to the NFL, Michael looked like a man among boys. As of this writing, it's not clear that Michael would be Marshawn Lynch's solitary replacement if Lynch gets hurt, but that's OK, because I'm writing about him here as a non-handcuff ownable player. If I've got any dead weight on my fantasy squad right now, Michael would be my speculative add. Do I think he'll get a big enough workload to be startable in fantasy with Lynch healthy? Probably not. But it's not impossible, and if it ever comes down to a Michael/Turbin platoon, I now acknowledge there's no question who the more exciting player would be.

LaRod Stephens-Howling and Felix Jones, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers (2.7 and 5.4 percent, respectively): Rookie Le'Veon Bell could return as soon as Week 2, but this week we should reportedly expect a three-headed backfield trio, which will also include Isaac Redman. If I'm desperate -- and really, if you're this desperate, you should stop drinking Ouzo on draft day -- I'd pick LSH over Jones. (Redman is the clear choice over either of these guys, but he's owned in 95.2 percent of leagues.) I've seen enough of Jones over the past few seasons, and his constant spate of injuries has sapped his speed and quickness. Stephens-Howling does yeoman's work wherever he lands, and in Todd Haley's offense, the pass-catching smaller back has a significant role. Remember also that the Tennessee Titans (Sunday's opponent) feature a defense that was third-easiest for opposing RBs to score fantasy points against last year.

Justin Blackmon, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (43.8 percent): Well, this is awkward. I rarely find myself in the position of defending Blackmon, whom I've been dogging since before the 2012 NFL draft. But even I'll admit Blackmon is probably worth a bench spot in all leagues while he serves his four-game suspension. Like it or not, the guy did have five-plus catches in six of his final seven games last season, scoring four TDs and posting one 236-yard contest while he was at it. Now that our expectations are more reasonable -- remember when your friend kept telling you Blackmon was exactly like Terrell Owens, despite the fact that he's 3 inches shorter, 20 pounds lighter and significantly slower? -- Blackmon will eventually settle in as a very solid flanker, lacking deep speed but possessing great ball skills. Obviously, Blaine Gabbert and/or Chad Henne under center is a mitigating factor, but come October, Blackmon is going to find himself well within the top-50 WR rankings every single week.

Jeremy Kerley, WR, New York Jets (4.6 percent): Yes, here's another player hurt by a seemingly awful QB situation. But this one could be smart for all you PPR league devotees. Kerley grabbed 56 passes in '12 and is almost certainly the safest target either Geno Smith or (eventually) Mark Sanchez has. Santonio Holmes will reportedly play Week 1 but is still an unknown because of his serious foot injury, and Stephen Hill still looks pretty raw. I think a 70-catch season is well within reach for Kerley; he probably won't get you many more than his three TDs from last year, but he could tickle 1,000 yards in a best-case scenario.

Zach Sudfeld, TE, New England Patriots (47.1 percent): Sudfeld is my No. 7 TE for Week 1, and he's owned in fewer than half of ESPN leagues. Remedy that situation, please! Is he a lock to produce at Rob Gronkowski-like levels? Of course not. But is he at least as good as the group of week-to-week frustrating tight ends that comprise that position's middle class? I think so. Don't get me wrong, Sudfeld comes with plenty of risk, even putting aside the fact that he's an undrafted rookie. He had six surgeries at the University of Nevada! But for a couple of weeks, you'll be hard-pressed to come up with a higher-upside option at fantasy's most frustrating position.

Julius Thomas, TE, Denver Broncos (19.4 percent): If you're a Gronkowski owner who couldn't get Sudfeld, let me suggest a freak athlete who could break out this season. Jordan Cameron got all the ink this summer (he's owned in 50.4 percent of leagues), but Thomas is just as intriguing, except instead of Brandon Weeden he gets to catch passes from Peyton Manning. Thomas probably won't be a target monster in an offense that features three potentially elite WRs, but the targets he does see will probably be pretty far downfield.

Deeper-League Finds

Kendall Hunter, RB, San Francisco 49ers (10.7 percent): Here he is again, my personal Binky. Longtime readers know that I've been hyping Hunter as Frank Gore's heir apparent for two-plus years, and it finally seemed to be clicking for him toward the end of '12, but he tore an Achilles and missed the Niners' run to the Super Bowl. In the interim, LaMichael James picked up steam (probably because he was a higher-profile collegiate player), but I still like Hunter better as an every-down option. In addition, James is battling a knee sprain and will miss most of September. To me, Hunter is Gore's clear handcuff (and as such should probably be owned in all leagues), but if you're in a deeper league and don't own Gore, I still think Hunter is worth a bench spot.

Danny Woodhead, RB, San Diego Chargers (25 percent): I understand why standard-leaguers are hesitant to roster Woodhead: His upside seems pretty low. The Chargers' offensive line looks dreadful, Ryan Mathews and Ronnie Brown are still around, and Woodhead isn't likely to be much of a TD maker away from Tom Brady's sweet offense. But in a deeper league, I would take the chance that while Woodhead doesn't have an every-down back's body, he's clearly the best football player in the San Diego backfield. Mathews has been a dog, and Brown is cooked. I fully expect Woodhead to get enough work in Mike McCoy and Ken Whisenhunt's new Chargers offense that he'll eclipse his career high in single-season touches (116). Especially in deeper PPR leagues, Woody could provide bye-week value by grabbing passes from an increasingly distance-challenged Philip Rivers.

Michael Cox, RB, New York Giants (0.2 percent): My Super-Deep Sleepers for '13 are off to a pretty decent start. True, the Miami Dolphins cut Jonas Gray, but Cox suddenly finds himself a potential Week 1 backup behind David Wilson, as Andre Brown is out for the first half of the season with a fractured leg. Da'Rel Scott could also be in the mix, and I don't rule out the possibility that the Giants could sign a free agent between now and Sunday. But as things stand, Cox is a Brown clone who did some really nice things in the preseason and might just work his way into a persistent role as a power and pass-blocking complement behind Wilson.

Quinton Patton, WR, San Francisco 49ers (4.1 percent): Here's another Super-Deep Sleeper who could become a Week 1 factor. The Niners are still thrashing around trying to find viable receiving weapons for Colin Kaepernick after Anquan Boldin. For the moment, the team's No. 2 WR appears to be Marlon Moore, which is pretty uninspiring. While Patton missed the early part of training camp with a fractured index finger, he lit up the Minnesota Vikings and the Chargers in the final two exhibition games. A polished receiver with a smooth all-around game, my opinion on Patton hasn't changed since I wrote the S.D.S. column. I own him in both of my deep keeper leagues.

Kenny Stills, WR, New Orleans Saints (5.9 percent): Personally, I was never that in love with owning Devery Henderson in his prime. But then again, I don't play in fantasy leagues that give huge rewards for big plays. Stills will be in the Henderson role that Joseph Morgan occupied last year (Morgan tore an ACL this summer), which means he'll probably score three TDs from a massive distance away and rack up three or four 100-yard games, but rarely catch more than three balls per week unless Marques Colston or Lance Moore gets injured. As I say, in some leagues, that profile is actually pretty valuable, and Stills is an intriguing longer-term prospect, too. He was a fun player to watch at the University of Oklahoma.

Patrick Edwards, WR, Detroit Lions (0.1 percent): Boy, am I in the tank for the Super-Deep Sleepers, or what? Here's my third and final callback to the S.D.S. column. Like Patton, Edwards has seen a quick rise up the depth chart, as the Lions continue to look for a reliably explosive second option opposite Calvin Johnson. Edwards is just 5-foot-9 and 175 pounds, so he's probably destined for the slot much of the time, but he's a jitterbug in open spaces. He's also a kid you can root for: He was a walk-on at the University of Houston who worked his way into three 1,000-yard seasons and a senior campaign that saw him rack up 1,752 receiving yards and 20 TDs. He spent last year on Detroit's practice squad, and while I'd like to believe Ryan Broyles is going to be the exciting inside threat in this offense, his knees may not be ready. And if they're not, Edwards might shine.

Heath Miller, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers (17.1 percent): If you're in a deeper league and don't have an ironclad tight end situation, Miller is your guy. Amazingly, despite a catastrophic knee injury late last December, he was able to avoid the PUP list to begin the regular season, which means the Steelers believe he'll be able to contribute in the season's first six weeks. Now, I take this as a grain of salt, because they did the same thing with Rashard Mendenhall one season ago, and Mendy proved not to be worth the investment. But Miller was so good in Todd Haley's offense last year, I'm willing to take a chance.

HacheMan · Sep 3, 2013

[h=1]Early-season trade targets[/h][h=3]Identifying good, bad trade candidates based on schedule matchups[/h]By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider

When a perceived good fantasy draft gives way to poor early-season performances, it can be a major frustration for fantasy owners.
In many cases, those troubles from fantasy stars facing very tough personnel matchups in the early weeks. The key to handling those situations is knowing whether this is merely a bump in the road and whether future matchups bode better for fantasy success.
Fantasy Foresight focuses on potential moves to be made (or not made) with the future in mind. This week we'll aim to assist owners with this potential conundrum by reviewing 10 players whose schedules indicate they could have slow starts in Weeks 1-3, and we'll see whether their future schedules are more favorable (thus making them tempting trade targets with frustrated owners) or just as daunting (meaning owners may want to pursue trades before the season kicks off).
The method used to measure schedule strength is to assign each defensive matchup a color grade based on a variety of metric/scouting factors. A red rating indicates the matchup is very difficult and should be avoided if possible. A yellow rating signifies a matchup of roughly average strength. A green rating denotes a highly favorable matchup that should be targeted.
Here's a look at 10 early-season fantasy trade targets, organized by position.

[h=3]Running backs[/h]

Matt Forte, Chicago Bears
In Forte's case, the Bears start off the season with two red-rated run defenses (Minnesota and Pittsburgh) in the first three weeks of the season. Low point totals in those contests may cause some of Forte's owners to jump ship, but he has only two more red-rated matchups the rest of the season, so they should stay patient if he does have a less-than-stellar start. Teams that don't own Forte may look at this as a potential buy-low opportunity if their league has a panicky Forte owner.

<OFFER></OFFER>

Trent Richardson, Cleveland Browns
Richardson looks to be in even worse shape than Forte as Cleveland begins the 2013 season, as he faces three straight red-rated defenses. However, the schedule eases up quite a bit after that. The Browns have only three more red-rated matchups the rest of the season, and one of those is in Week 17, which is relatively meaningless in many fantasy leagues. Same rule applies here: Stay patient if T-Rich has some single-digit games and aim to trade for him if Richardson's owner wants to throw in the towel on him before the end of September.

Ahmad Bradshaw and Vick Ballard, Indianapolis Colts
This potential platoon backfield situation may cause fantasy owners some consternation that will be compounded by a schedule with two red-rated defenses in the first three weeks. The platoon part of this equation may not clear up, but the matchup docket will, as Indianapolis will face only one red-rated defense the rest of the year.

[h=3]Wide receivers[/h]

Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers
Nelson is likely to be dealing with tough matchups for most of this season. He starts off with two red-rated cornerbacks in the first three weeks and then has three more red-rated corners over his next eight games. However, things clear up during the fantasy playoff stretch run, as Nelson will see only yellow-rated cornerbacks during that time frame. Injury concerns should also impact any decision on Nelson.

Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears
The matchups say Jeffery is likely to be a hit-or-miss candidate this year. His misses could come when he faces red-rated cornerbacks in Weeks 1 and 2 and in Weeks 9-17, when he faces four red-rated corners in nine games. The hits should come during Weeks 5-7, when Jeffery squares off against green-rated cornerbacks in every game. It may be a savvy move to swap Jeffery out after Week 7.

DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles
Jackson is apt to be even more hit-or-miss than Jeffery, as he has four green-rated as well as four red-rated cornerbacks on his schedule from Weeks 1-11. That is followed by a bye in Week 12 and then four yellow-rated and one red-rated matchup from Weeks 13-17. Sounds very much like a spot-start flex candidate.

Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers
Brown definitely has an early-season fantasy red flag on him. It starts with two red-rated cornerbacks in the first three weeks. Those matchups are bookended around a battle against Cincinnati cornerback Leon Hall, a coverage expert who has ranked as a red-rated cornerback in previous seasons. After a Week 4 matchup against Minnesota, the Steelers have a bye and follow that up with a game against the Jets in which Brown will face off against the dominant skills of Antonio Cromartie. Things clear up for a while after that, as Brown doesn't see a red-rated cornerback again until Week 14, but the overall schedule strength points toward Brown having a difficult transition to becoming the Steelers' No. 1 wide receiver.

[h=3]Quarterbacks[/h]

Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles
Quarterbacks are gauged differently than wide receivers because their grade consists of five coverage matchups (three cornerbacks and two safeties) rather than a single coverage matchup.
In Vick's case, three of the Eagles' first four opponents have two red-rated players in their secondary. Two might not sound like much, but it does constitute 40 percent of the secondary and thus is a daunting figure. Those matchups become even more difficult because they feature only one green-rated secondary player.
Even if Vick does have problems in those games, the woes should be short-lived, because Philadelphia has eight matchups later in the year that have zero red-rated secondary players. This means Vick owners should not call it quits if he fails to hit a home run in his first few proverbial at-bats.

Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers' first two games feature a total of six red-rated secondary players, three yellow-rated defenders and only one green-rated matchup. Those are not exactly favorable odds, but their chances improve tremendously after the rough start. San Francisco currently has only one other matchup with at least two red-rated defenders, and it has at least one green-rated matchup in 10 games. This means it should not be assumed Kaepernick is going through a sophomore slump if he begins the year with some less-than-stellar performances.

HacheMan · Sep 3, 2013

Evaluating rosters after final cuts

Eric Karabell

My first thought when seeing the news that Pittsburgh Steelers running back Jonathan Dwyer was surprisingly cut this weekend was actually a positive one, as I assumed this meant hotshot injured rookie Le'Veon Bell must be considered close enough to playing that the team didn’t feel it needed the depth. I had other thoughts as well after that, such as how in the world did Dwyer go from a potential starter heading into August to not worth a roster spot at all? How does this affect interim starter Isaac Redman and potentially Felix Jones? And basically, wow, Dwyer must be really bad, worse than even Jones.

There generally isn’t much fantasy-relevant roster news the final weekend before the games start to count, as rosters are pared down to 53. Oh, to some the intriguing Tim Tebow situation with his former New England Patriots warrants front-page news, its own cable show and Congress filibustering, but honestly, he wasn’t going to make a fantasy difference. In retrospect, it’s amazing that he once did (and he really did). He’s not likely to make a difference again, unless one plays in a Canadian Football League fantasy league (which I’m sure people do!). Bottom line is, I can’t find a ton of useful information when it came to the many cuts NFL teams made, but the Dwyer news sure was interesting.

Bell, like pretty much all rookies who haven’t had the opportunity to disappoint fantasy owners like San Diego Chargers running back Ryan Mathews, for example, was being a bit overdrafted to start with, and now he’s being a bit too ignored. While Bell’s right mid-foot sprain could hamper or restrict him all season (the unrelated Stephania Bell from ESPN is definitely concerned), the Steelers did not place Bell on the PUP list, which would have cost him six weeks. Bell is not expected to play in September, but recent reports have been encouraging, in theory. I like the fact Bell is currently one of the highest risers in ESPN average live drafts (ADP), because he should be a top-100 player. His value has been way up, way down and now up again.

For September, however, Redman has a nice opportunity to succeed and, as he told reporters, seize the job and not give it back. Of course, he missed the final three preseason games with a neck stinger, but he’s reportedly healthy now. Anything is possible; Bell is a rookie, after all, and it’s dangerous to trust them, and this one is hurt. Redman is a wide power back who had one really good game last season, when he tore through the New York Giants for 147 rushing yards (on 26 carries!) and totaled 20 standard fantasy points in Week 9. In September, he’ll face Tennessee (nice matchup), Cincinnati (not so nice), Chicago (not nice) and Minnesota (generally not nice), so I can’t imagine you’d use Redman, but I have a 20-team league, and he’ll be active there. Hey, Felix Jones, Steelers teammate LaRod Stephens-Howling and even Dwyer and Franco Harris might need to be used there!

I will say this about Dwyer, though: He should find work somewhere else, and while I question if he’ll make a difference with his new team, opportunity for pretty much anyone is generally just an injury away and injuries happen all the time. If you’re taking a last-round flier on other unemployed fellas such as Michael Turner, Willis McGahee and Brandon Lloyd -- I’m not bothering -- then Dwyer is closer to being a factor, because he at least has been playing and practicing.

As for other interesting news from the weekend, well, let’s go by position.

Quarterback: Hmmm. So now that Tebow has been cut, it’s safe to draft Tom Brady again. Phew, I know many of you were concerned. … The Oakland Raiders reportedly will start Terrelle Pryor over Matt Flynn in Week 1. Sure, I’d take a shot in a really deep format. The guy runs, and he’s not as bad as Tebow throwing. … Vince Young did not make the Green Bay Packers after all. Seneca Wallace reportedly retired Friday, then became the Packers’ backup Monday. Says a lot about Young, eh? Aaron Rodgers need not worry. … Jeff Tuel (pronounced Tool, no, really) will start Week 1 for the Buffalo Bills, but you should still be drafting rookie EJ Manuel in deep formats. As for Kevin Kolb, I will continue to wear the Philadelphia Eagles jersey I have with his name and number on it with pride … or to paint walls and mow the lawn.

Running back: I can’t say I’m a big Chris Ivory fan, but he’s starting for the New York Jets. Ordinary Bilal Powell is the backup, but when the Packers cut Alex Green the Jets swooped in and grabbed him. Green didn’t show much last season, but Ivory is rarely healthy and Powell isn’t special, so remember the name. … As for the Packers, the fact Green was cut should mean James Starks backs up rookie Eddie Lacy, or splits time with him. Remember, we all seem to love Lacy today, but he is a rookie and often they do rookie things, such as play poorly. … The Miami Dolphins mercifully named Lamar Miller the starter, though I don’t think the situation was in doubt. … The Houston Texans parted ways with average Deji Karim. Cierre Wood, the undrafted free agent from Notre Dame, rushed for 107 yards in the preseason finale and made the squad. Arian Foster is probably hurt and Ben Tate hasn’t been durable, so again, remember the name. … Nothing was going to be settled with the Denver Broncos’ situation this past weekend, though I found it interesting Ronnie Hillman played in Thursday’s exhibition, while rookie Montee Ball and veteran Knowshon Moreno were saved the ignominy. It really means nothing, though. Hillman will be involved -- all of them will -- in Week 1. … Finally, Giants goal line guy Andre Brown broke a bone in his left leg Thursday -- why was he even playing? -- but I wouldn’t drop him in standard leagues. He might return the first week of October, and he should matter.

Wide receiver: It had become clear the San Francisco 49ers weren’t going to keep veteran Austin Collie, and now he’s available for any team. Looks like the 49ers will start Marlon Moore alongside Anquan Boldin, though I’d watch Quinton Patton and eventually former first-rounder Jon Baldwin. … The well-traveled Brandon Stokley, now 37, made the Baltimore Ravens and should see targets as the slot option. He might be a play in PPR formats during bye weeks. … Remember when former New Orleans Saints wide receiver Robert Meachem was going to make an impact with the San Diego Chargers? Now he’s unemployed. And that team doesn’t have much receiving depth.

Tight end: There’s really no update on the Patriots’ Rob Gronkowski, once it became clear he would avoid the PUP list. However, if we like Le’Veon Bell a bit more after Dwyer was sent packing, note that the Pats parted with tight ends Jake Ballard and Daniel Fells. Ballard was viewed as a sleeper two months ago. Rookie Zach Sudfeld will likely get a decent rank by the ESPN Fantasy staff when the Week 1 rankings are released Wednesday.

Kicker: We rarely spend time discussing kickers -- and for good reason -- but at least make sure your kicker has a job. I saw someone draft Jason Hanson in a 20-team league last week. He’s retired. Shayne Graham was cut by the Cleveland Browns Sunday. And the Browns aren’t the lone team perhaps upgrading the position, so just make sure later this week.

HacheMan · Sep 3, 2013

[h=1]Week 1 Eliminator best bets[/h][h=3]Projecting the safest selections for Eliminator pools in Week 1[/h]By Nik Bonaddio and Keith Goldner | numberFire
ESPN INSIDER

Eliminator pools may not have the popularity of fantasy football just yet, but they are another fun option for NFL fans. The trick, though, is not only staying in the game by picking a correct team to win each week but maximizing your value by saving teams with good matchups for later in the season.
To help you in your Eliminator pool, Insider will use numberFire's predictive modeling to help you survive and advance. Our job is to provide you with the best information possible to empower smarter decision-making.

First, we will provide you with the win-maximizing pick of the week. This is based on the probability of a team winning combined with the percentage of the population selecting each game. For example, the Patriots might be the top favorite one week, projected to win 80 percent of the time (see Week 2, 2012, versus Arizona), but if 50 percent of the population is picking them, selecting them will not help you win your pool. Instead, in the 1-in-5 scenario where the Patriots lose, you would survive while the Cardinals eliminate half of your pool. To do this, we generate every possible combination of outcomes each week (65,000-plus) so you can maximize your potential gains. In addition, we will look forward to future matchups to let you know which teams to keep in reserve, as well as highlight the most likely wins each week.
To help you visualize, here's our Eliminator Pool threat matrix that shows you how each team projects each week based on our model. It will be updated each week as results come in over the course of the season.
Green: Our win-maximizing pick of the week.
Red: The popular pick. This is the consensus pick by you, the player on ESPN's Eliminator Challenge game.
Brown: The max method. This finds the best matchup of the year and works backward to maximize total win percentage throughout the season.
<OFFER></OFFER>

<CITE>numberFire</CITE>
Keep in mind: We are dealing in probability, not certainty. The NFL is extremely volatile, oozing with random variation. You won't see any 100 percent predictions on the threat matrix because upsets will happen. We will be the first to tell you, we can't be right all the time, but with our data you'll be privy to the most likely outcomes our projections foresee.
Here are our Week 1 Eliminator picks: <OFFER></OFFER>
Win maximization
In Week 1, the three most-picked teams are the Indianapolis Colts (37.4 percent), New England Patriots (15.0 percent) and Kansas City Chiefs (7.8 percent). Using this information combined with our win probability estimates, here are the win-maximizing picks of the week:
1. Pittsburgh Steelers over Tennessee Titans (68.6 percent numberFire win probability, 77.0 percent Vegas win probability)
The Steelers were utterly average in 2012 and still managed to have a passing attack that added three points per game above expectation. But this pick is not as much about the Steelers being good as it is about the Titans being bad. Tennessee was well below average in all efficiency categories, scoring eight points less per game than a league-average team would have scored.
2. Denver Broncos over Baltimore Ravens (66.9 percent numberFire, 78.7 percent Vegas)
Think you shouldn't be picking against the Super Bowl champions and their $120 million quarterback? Think again. Not only is the game at Mile High Stadium, but Denver ranked as the second-most efficient team in 2012, behind only the Patriots. Denver owns the No. 2 defense in the NFL -- although it will take a big hit without Von Miller -- and the No. 6 passing attack on a per-play basis.
3. St. Louis Rams over Arizona Cardinals (64.5 percent numberFire, 68.8 percent Vegas)
The Cardinals addressed one of their biggest needs in the offseason, bringing in Carson Palmer to throw to Larry Fitzgerald. Last year, Arizona scored 100 fewer points than expectation in its passing game alone. The Rams, on the other hand, are on the rise, having added 36 points through the air in 2012 after adjusting for strength of opponents.

Probable picks
Don't feel like accounting for your pool opponents' picks? Here are the teams most likely to win in Week 1:
1. Indianapolis Colts over Oakland Raiders (73.6 percent numberFire win probability, 81.0 percent Vegas win probability)
While we have the Colts as the most likely team to win in Week 1, because a large portion of the public is picking them, our top pick becomes the Steelers. Should the Raiders upset the Colts -- which we project to happen about 26 percent of the time -- over a third of ESPN's pool players will be eliminated.
2. New England Patriots over Buffalo Bills (70.3 percent numberFire, 82.6 percent Vegas)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers over Tennessee Titans (68.6 percent numberFire, 77.0 percent Vegas)

Max method
Winning this week is your primary goal, but it is also valuable to look into the future since you can only pick each team once. You may want to consider keeping New England in your back pocket; the Patriots have extremely favorable matchups in each of the next two weeks against the Jets and Bucs. In addition, 6.7 percent of people are picking Houston this week at San Diego (fifth-most popular pick), but the Texans have almost a 70 percent chance of winning next week at home against Tennessee.

HacheMan · Sep 4, 2013

Top running backs for Week 1

By Fantasy Staff | ESPN.com

Top running backs for Week 1
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Rank	Name	Team	Opp.	Berry	Harris	Karabell	Cockcroft	Avg.
1	Adrian Peterson	MIN	@Det	1	1	1	1	1.0
2	Jamaal Charles	KC	@Jac	3	5	4	3	3.8
3	Doug Martin	TB	@NYJ	7	4	2	4	4.3
4	Marshawn Lynch	SEA	@Car	6	2	5	5	4.5
5	C.J. Spiller	BUF	NE	4	10	3	2	4.8
6	Ray Rice	BAL	@Den	5	3	6	7	5.3
7	Alfred Morris	WSH	Phi	2	8	9	8	6.8
8	LeSean McCoy	PHI	@Wsh	9	6	7	6	7.0
9	Trent Richardson	CLE	Mia	8	7	8	9	8.0
10	Stevan Ridley	NE	@Buf	11	11	11	10	10.8
11	Steven Jackson	ATL	@NO	14	9	14	11	12.0
11	David Wilson	NYG	@Dal	13	12	10	13	12.0
13	Arian Foster	HOU	@SD	10	14	15	12	12.8
14	Maurice Jones-Drew	JAC	KC	12	16	13	14	13.8
15	Chris Johnson	TEN	@Pit	15	17	12	17	15.3
16	Matt Forte	CHI	Cin	17	13	17	15	15.5
17	Frank Gore	SF	GB	18	15	18	18	17.3
17	Reggie Bush	DET	Min	16	21	16	16	17.3
19	DeMarco Murray	DAL	NYG	19	19	21	19	19.5
20	Lamar Miller	MIA	@Cle	20	20	20	22	20.5
21	Darren Sproles	NO	Atl	22	23	19	20	21.0
22	Darren McFadden	OAK	@Ind	23	18	22	26	22.3
23	Daryl Richardson	STL	Ari	21	24	23	24	23.0
24	Eddie Lacy	GB	@SF	28	22	25	23	24.5
25	Ahmad Bradshaw	IND	Oak	26	30	26	21	25.8
26	Ben Tate	HOU	@SD	32	27	24	27	27.5
27	Chris Ivory	NYJ	TB	29	26	28	31	28.5
28	Montee Ball	DEN	Bal	35	25	30	29	29.8
28	Shane Vereen	NE	@Buf	31	29	29	30	29.8
30	Ryan Mathews	SD	Hou	24	28	33	37	30.5
31	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	CIN	@Chi	37	34	27	25	30.8
31	Rashard Mendenhall	ARI	@StL	25	35	35	28	30.8
33	Giovani Bernard	CIN	@Chi	27	33	32	38	32.5
33	Isaac Redman	PIT	Ten	34	31	31	34	32.5
35	DeAngelo Williams	CAR	Sea	30	32	36	35	33.3
36	Mark Ingram	NO	Atl	33	36	34	32	33.8
37	Vick Ballard	IND	Oak	38	37	37	36	37.0
38	Ronnie Hillman	DEN	Bal	36	38	39	48	40.3
39	Knowshon Moreno	DEN	Bal	43	44	38	42	41.8
39	Danny Woodhead	SD	Hou	40	39	45	43	41.8
41	Bryce Brown	PHI	@Wsh	49	40	40	39	42.0
42	Bernard Pierce	BAL	@Den	47	41	43	40	42.8
43	Michael Bush	CHI	Cin	NR	NR	42	33	44.3
44	Fred Jackson	BUF	NE	42	NR	41	44	44.5
45	Shonn Greene	TEN	@Pit	41	47	46	45	44.8
46	Joique Bell	DET	Min	45	42	47	46	45.0
47	Jacquizz Rodgers	ATL	@NO	NR	45	44	41	45.3
48	Roy Helu	WSH	Phi	39	NR	48	49	46.8
49	Bilal Powell	NYJ	TB	46	46	49	47	47.0
50	LaRod Stephens-Howling	PIT	Ten	48	43	NR	NR	48.3
51	Pierre Thomas	NO	Atl	44	48	NR	NR	48.5
52	Felix Jones	PIT	Ten	NR	49	50	NR	50.3
53	Mike Tolbert	CAR	Sea	50	50	NR	NR	50.5
54	Christine Michael	SEA	@Car	NR	NR	NR	50	50.8

HacheMan · Sep 4, 2013

Top wide receivers for Week 1

By Fantasy Staff | ESPN.com

Top wide receivers for Week 1 
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Rank	Name	Team	Opp.	Berry	Harris	Karabell	Cockcroft	Avg.
1	Calvin Johnson	DET	Min	1	1	1	1	1.0
2	Dez Bryant	DAL	NYG	2	2	2	2	2.0
3	Julio Jones	ATL	@NO	6	3	3	3	3.8
4	A.J. Green	CIN	@Chi	5	4	5	4	4.5
5	Demaryius Thomas	DEN	Bal	4	7	4	8	5.8
6	Brandon Marshall	CHI	Cin	3	6	9	9	6.8
7	Roddy White	ATL	@NO	7	5	11	5	7.0
8	Vincent Jackson	TB	@NYJ	8	8	6	10	8.0
9	Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	@StL	9	11	8	6	8.5
10	Andre Johnson	HOU	@SD	13	9	7	7	9.0
11	Danny Amendola	NE	@Buf	10	10	10	12	10.5
12	Victor Cruz	NYG	@Dal	11	12	15	14	13.0
13	Randall Cobb	GB	@SF	16	13	13	11	13.3
14	Reggie Wayne	IND	Oak	15	15	12	17	14.8
15	Pierre Garcon	WSH	Phi	14	20	14	13	15.3
16	Marques Colston	NO	Atl	17	16	18	16	16.8
17	Wes Welker	DEN	Bal	19	17	17	15	17.0
17	Dwayne Bowe	KC	@Jac	12	18	16	22	17.0
19	Torrey Smith	BAL	@Den	18	26	22	18	21.0
20	Antonio Brown	PIT	Ten	22	23	20	21	21.5
21	Steve Smith	CAR	Sea	23	25	24	20	23.0
22	Hakeem Nicks	NYG	@Dal	27	14	23	29	23.3
23	Cecil Shorts	JAC	KC	21	29	21	25	24.0
24	Mike Wallace	MIA	@Cle	35	19	19	28	25.3
24	Jordy Nelson	GB	@SF	20	24	34	23	25.3
26	Eric Decker	DEN	Bal	26	22	27	27	25.5
27	DeSean Jackson	PHI	@Wsh	24	31	25	24	26.0
28	Anquan Boldin	SF	GB	25	27	33	35	30.0
29	Kenbrell Thompkins	NE	@Buf	30	32	29	30	30.3
30	Steve Johnson	BUF	NE	28	33	32	33	31.5
31	T.Y. Hilton	IND	Oak	39	36	35	19	32.3
32	James Jones	GB	@SF	37	21	31	41	32.5
33	Mike Williams	TB	@NYJ	34	28	30	39	32.8
34	Chris Givens	STL	Ari	36	34	36	26	33.0
35	Greg Jennings	MIN	@Det	29	30	39	36	33.5
36	Lance Moore	NO	Atl	32	39	26	38	33.8
37	Tavon Austin	STL	Ari	42	37	28	32	34.8
38	Sidney Rice	SEA	@Car	40	38	41	31	37.5
39	Miles Austin	DAL	NYG	33	35	40	43	37.8
40	Golden Tate	SEA	@Car	38	43	38	34	38.3
41	Emmanuel Sanders	PIT	Ten	31	44	42	37	38.5
42	Vincent Brown	SD	Hou	43	41	37	45	41.5
43	Kenny Britt	TEN	@Pit	41	45	43	40	42.3
44	Michael Floyd	ARI	@StL	49	42	46	44	45.3
45	Denarius Moore	OAK	@Ind	50	NR	44	42	46.8
45	Alshon Jeffery	CHI	Cin	NR	40	45	NR	46.8
47	Malcom Floyd	SD	Hou	44	NR	47	NR	48.3
48	Kendall Wright	TEN	@Pit	45	NR	NR	48	48.8
49	Darrius Heyward-Bey	IND	Oak	NR	47	NR	47	49.0
50	Brian Hartline	MIA	@Cle	46	49	NR	NR	49.3
50	Jeremy Kerley	NYJ	TB	NR	46	NR	49	49.3
52	Greg Little	CLE	Mia	NR	NR	NR	46	49.8
53	Rueben Randle	NYG	@Dal	NR	NR	48	50	50.0
53	DeAndre Hopkins	HOU	@SD	47	NR	NR	NR	50.0
53	Andre Roberts	ARI	@StL	48	50	NR	NR	50.0
56	Nate Washington	TEN	@Pit	NR	48	NR	NR	50.3
57	Ryan Broyles	DET	Min	NR	NR	49	NR	50.5
58	Mohamed Sanu	CIN	@Chi	NR	NR	50	NR	50.8

HacheMan · Sep 4, 2013

Top quarterbacks for Week 1

By Fantasy Staff | ESPN.com

Top quarterbacks for Week 1 
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Rank	Name	Team	Opp.	Berry	Harris	Karabell	Cockcroft	Avg.
1	Drew Brees	NO	Atl	1	1	1	1	1.0
2	Tom Brady	NE	@Buf	2	2	3	2	2.3
3	Matt Ryan	ATL	@NO	3	4	4	3	3.5
4	Peyton Manning	DEN	Bal	5	3	2	6	4.0
5	Aaron Rodgers	GB	@SF	6	5	6	4	5.3
6	Colin Kaepernick	SF	GB	7	6	8	7	7.0
7	Andrew Luck	IND	Oak	9	7	7	8	7.8
8	Matthew Stafford	DET	Min	8	10	11	5	8.5
8	Tony Romo	DAL	NYG	4	12	9	9	8.5
10	Robert Griffin III	WSH	Phi	10	9	5	12	9.0
11	Cam Newton	CAR	Sea	11	8	10	10	9.8
12	Russell Wilson	SEA	@Car	12	11	12	11	11.5
13	Michael Vick	PHI	@Wsh	13	15	13	14	13.8
14	Eli Manning	NYG	@Dal	16	13	14	13	14.0
15	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	Ten	14	14	15	15	14.5
16	Joe Flacco	BAL	@Den	15	19	17	18	17.3
17	Sam Bradford	STL	Ari	21	17	16	16	17.5
18	Jay Cutler	CHI	Cin	20	16	18	19	18.3
19	Matt Schaub	HOU	@SD	18	23	19	17	19.3
20	Carson Palmer	ARI	@StL	19	18	21	20	19.5
21	Alex Smith	KC	@Jac	17	20	23	23	20.8
22	Andy Dalton	CIN	@Chi	22	21	24	21	22.0
23	Josh Freeman	TB	@NYJ	23	22	22	24	22.8
24	Brandon Weeden	CLE	Mia	24	NR	NR	22	24.5
24	EJ Manuel	BUF	NE	NR	NR	20	NR	24.5
26	Philip Rivers	SD	Hou	NR	24	25	NR	25.3
27	Terrelle Pryor	OAK	@Ind	25	NR	NR	25	25.5
28	Ryan Tannehill	MIA	@Cle	NR	25	NR	NR	25.8

HacheMan · Sep 4, 2013

Week 1 ranks reaction: Foster No. 15?!

Eric Karabell

Houston Texans running back Arian Foster has been one of fantasy's kings for three seasons, a touchdown machine that has averaged more than 1,900 yards from scrimmage in that time. He's also the No. 2 player and running back in the ESPN Fantasy rankings for this season … but he's my No. 15 running back for Week 1, a Monday night tilt against the hardly imposing San Diego Chargers defense. So what gives?

Well, what gives is that Foster missed the entire preseason with calf and back injuries, and Texans coach Gary Kubiak claims his workhorse running back will see less than a full workload for the opener. Whether that means 20 touches or five is impossible to tell, but obviously backup Ben Tate is affected by this proclamation as well, and it shows in the rankings. Foster, of course, claims he's refreshed and strong and ready for the season, but let's just say I have my doubts.

That said, Foster should still start for you; he's a clear-cut RB2 at the very least, a guy who can provide enough fantasy relevance on even 10 touches because he can score touchdowns in bunches. Perhaps Tate gets the heavy lifting between the 20-yard lines, and Foster is used cautiously. Or perhaps quarterback Matt Schaub gets the chance to air things out to awesome Andre Johnson and potentially interesting rookie DeAndre Hopkins. Also, the Chargers don't have a terrible defense. Don't be surprised if the Texans have trouble moving the ball.

As we embark on a new season of rankings and this weekly blog entry, my rankings reaction, my first piece of advice after trusting your gut is to forget about your draft. It's over. So what if Foster was the second pick overall (I rank him seventh) or New England Patriots tight end Zach Sudfeld was a post-draft waiver addition. Your goal is to play the best options each week, regardless of how they were acquired. It might seem ridiculous to downgrade a whopper like Foster in any week he's dressed and ready for action (albeit less action than normal), but it's just. I ranked 14 running backs -- and for Thursday's flex rankings, several wide receivers -- better than the star back, and yeah, I do see a scenario in which I'd even sit him.

As for Tate, I do not expect more than 20 touches. In fact, I think Foster gets more, unless this turns into a Houston rout early. If you look at the unexciting Chargers personnel on offense, perhaps this scenario makes sense, but you can't bet on it. It's Foster over Tate, but neither over, say, Maurice Jones-Drew, Steven Jackson and David Wilson for me. It might be the only time all season we're saying this, but then again, injuries are the great equalizer in fantasy, so it might not be.

As for other thoughts on the Week 1 rankings, let's go position by position. As always, keep in mind I can write intelligibly about only my own rankings, not what my colleagues are thinking.

Quarterbacks: Mostly standard stuff here, but I know the Philadelphia Eagles well, and while I question their offense, I really have concerns about their defense. Good luck against Robert Griffin III! Honestly, I don't think the Washington Redskins re-wrote the playbook to keep Griffin healthier. He's going to run, throw and put up big numbers against the Eagles, so I ranked him fifth at quarterback, better than Aaron Rodgers, who faces the San Francisco 49ers. … Similarly, I was pleased to see that none of the rankers went all-in with erratic Eagle Michael Vick. … Cam Newton appears the big faller in the initial rankings, as he faces the Seattle Seahawks. But don't overrate this. The Seahawks are good, but so is Cam. He's still a top-10 quarterback. If desperate and thinking youngster, I like Buffalo Bills option EJ Manuel -- yes, he is apparently starting -- over the Oakland Raiders' Terrelle Pryor. The Patriots can be scored on, and Buffalo does have weapons.

Running back: I admit to being all-in on New York Giants sophomore David Wilson. The Andre Brown injury makes him his own goal-line back, and I see many points being scored in the Giants-Dallas Cowboys tilt. Wilson is my No. 10 running back. I have no concerns about the top-9 running backs. … I realize brittle options DeMarco Murray and Darren McFadden are supposedly healthy today, but neither made my top 20. Not in a week with no byes and seemingly everyone except Foster healthy. … Two of us ranked BenJarvus Green-Ellis of the Cincinnati Bengals ahead of rookie Giovani Bernard. Interesting. I just see the Law Firm getting more touches and goal-line chances. … This is not the week to use DeAngelo Williams, but he's still worth owning. … I wanted to rank Indianapolis Colts newcomer Ahmad Bradshaw better, but then I thought Andrew Luck might be up three touchdowns on the Raiders before halftime, and figured it could be a short afternoon for him.

Wide receiver: The option that jumps out is my No. 11 ranking of Atlanta Falcons star Roddy White. They play the New Orleans Saints. In this case, it was a little about White's ankle injury. The team hopes he can play Sunday, which scares me a tad. Also, I just happened to like 10 other wide receivers more, including Larry Fitzgerald and for this week, a healthy Danny Amendola. Both have useful matchups. … I realize Jordy Nelson is likely to play for the Green Bay Packers this week, but he's probably not 100 percent, and it's versus a tough 49ers defense. My No. 32 rank does seem a tad harsh, however. … Yep, I'm all in for Patriots rookie Kenbrell Thompkins. Love the matchup. And his quarterback. … I fear unproven Charger Vincent Brown was so underrated months ago that he actually became a bit overrated recently. I ranked him among my top-40 wide receivers, but won't have a long leash. … Tampa Bay Buccaneers veteran Mike Williams was better than you might realize last year, and I see a Bucs blowout this week.

HacheMan · Sep 4, 2013

[h=1]Best/worst Week 1 matchups[/h][h=3]Matt Ryan among players that owners should start Week 1[/h]By Scott Kacsmar | Football Outsiders

So you survived the grueling seven-month wait for the NFL to return. Now what happens in Week 1 when we lack evidence for which teams and players are the best in 2013? No matter how many projections were ran, and Football Outsiders has done many, the fantasy football season can turn in an instant this week.

Ask Tom Brady owners in 2008 when he tore his ACL in the first quarter of the opening game. Not only did that leave Brady owners with a hole at quarterback, but that changed the scoring potential for his receivers (Randy Moss and Wes Welker) and also the running backs. An NFL season is like one gigantic puzzle where each piece goes together. Nothing truly happens in isolation. If a player gets hurt or cut, someone has to fill his spot. It's all connected.

Week 1 is also most dangerous for fool's gold, when an unknown posts a huge game and everyone runs to the waiver wire to claim him, only to be disappointed. Does the name Frisman Jackson ring a bell? A wide receiver for the Cleveland Browns, he exploded in the 2005 season opener with eight catches for 128 yards and a touchdown. In his other 33 games, he had 362 yards combined. That's 26.1 percent of his career production in one game.

That is why you can't overreact to Week 1 results. Trust the guys you drafted to be studs this year and give them a few weeks before cutting bait. Adrian Peterson only rushed for 90 yards in one of his first six games in 2012. He was just warming up for one of the greatest seasons ever by a running back. Patience can be a virtue.

At this point in the season, we really just have our KUBIAK fantasy projections and preseason DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) projections to compare matchups. As the season progresses, DVOA will teach us more about a team's strengths and weaknesses.

However, we did idedntify players with favorable and unfavorable fantasy matchups for Week 1. While the gut call may be a strong attraction in Week 1, it doesn't hurt to look at some objective data for some start-or-sit help.

[h=3]Quarterbacks[/h]
Matt Ryan (plus-4 points)

While Ryan may only be 3-6 against the Saints in his career, he has averaged 325 passing yards per game against New Orleans since 2011. That includes three games with over 350 yards, which Ryan has only done five times total in 78 regular-season starts. The 2012 Saints became the first defense in NFL history to allow over 7,000 yards. That includes 4,875 gross passing yards; the fourth-highest total ever. We project this defense to finish 31st this year as new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, who has had little success in nine NFL seasons at that position, should be in for a tough debut.

[h=4]Players With Favorable Matchups[/h]Based on defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA). For the methodology, click here.

Pos	Team	Name	+/- Fan. Pts.
QB	ATL	Matt Ryan	+4
QB	PIT	Ben Roethlisberger	+4
QB	NYG	Eli Manning	+4
QB	JAC	Blaine Gabbert	+3
QB	KC	Alex Smith	+3
QB	MIN	Christian Ponder	+3
RB	NYG	David Wilson	+3
RB	JAC	Maurice Jones-Drew	+2
RB	ATL	Steven Jackson	+2
RB	ATL	Jacquizz Rodgers	+1
RB	BAL	Ray Rice	+1
WR	PIT	Antonio Brown	+1
RB	DET	Reggie Bush	+1
WR	KC	Dwayne Bowe	+1
WR	NYG	Hakeem Nicks	+1
TE	ATL	Tony Gonzalez	+1
TE	MIN	Kyle Rudolph	+1
TE	NO	Jimmy Graham	+1

<OFFER>Russell Wilson (minus-4 points)

Arguably no quarterback finished hotter in 2012 than Wilson, which is phenomenal given he was a rookie drafted in the third round. One problem Seattle did have was underperforming on the road, especially in games that started at 10 a.m. PST. That's what Wilson faces this week in Carolina, who we project as an elite defense this season. It was just a 16-12 game between these teams last year, one of only two games in which Wilson threw multiple interceptions.

[h=3]Running backs[/h]
Reggie Bush (plus-1 point)

He's on his third team in four years, but Bush was playing well in Miami the last two seasons. Now he's on one of the most pass-happy offenses in history with Matthew Stafford, so he could see his biggest receiving year since 2006 when he had 88 receptions. Detroit's at home where it played seven games decided by one score or less last season. Minnesota's defense added rookies, but not much else, hence we project the Vikings D to rank 25th in DVOA this season.

Chris Johnson (minus-2 points)

Johnson's boom-or-bust style infuriates football fans. For fantasy players, if he doesn't break the long run, there's a good chance he finishes with a very poor day. The Steelers are our No. 2 projected defense and playing at home in a game in which the offense should have many advantages. That means the Titans will be playing from behind and Johnson may not see many touches to try to break that long run. Johnson also failed to rush for 60 yards in his last two trips to Pittsburgh (2009 and 2011).

[h=3]Wide receivers[/h]
Dwayne Bowe (plus-1 point)
[h=4]Players With Unfavorable Matchups[/h]Based on defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA). For the methodology, click here.

Pos	Team	Name	+/- Fan. Pts.
QB	SEA	Russell Wilson	-4
QB	CIN	Andy Dalton	-4
QB	TB	Josh Freeman	-3
QB	CLE	Brandon Weeden	-3
QB	TEN	Jake Locker	-3
QB	NYJ	Geno Smith	-3
RB	TEN	Chris Johnson	-2
RB	NYJ	Chris Ivory	-2
RB	CIN	Giovani Bernard	-2
RB	CHI	Matt Forte	-1
QB	CHI	Jay Cutler	-1
QB	PHI	Michael Vick	-1
QB	SD	Philip Rivers	-1
RB	SD	Ryan Mathews	-1
RB	MIA	Lamar Miller	-1
QB	MIA	Ryan Tannehill	-1
RB	CAR	DeAngelo Williams	-1
TE	CLE	Jordan Cameron	-1
RB	GB	Eddie Lacy	-1

While we wait to see just how often new coach Andy Reid will put the ball in Alex Smith's hands, we do know many of his throws will go to Bowe, who is facing our 30th-projected defense this week in Jacksonville. Bowe had a disappointing 2012, though that was mostly due to the abysmal quarterback play the Chiefs had. Smith completed 70.2 percent of his passes last season in San Francisco and Reid has often snatched full potential out of his quarterbacks. This is a good matchup for Smith and Bowe to start building that chemistry.

[h=3]Tight ends[/h]
Tony Gonzalez (plus-1 point) and Jimmy Graham (plus-1 point)

This is expected to be an odd year for the tight end position in fantasy football. Dennis Pitta is out until at least Week 8 (likely longer) and Dustin Keller is done for the season. Rob Gronkowski and Heath Miller are trying to return from injury. Aaron Hernandez is out of the league. Some teams (Dallas and Cincinnati) have added another tight end to go along with a proven starter, which New England recently popularized and the Colts went all-in with last season. Some are banking on unproven players like Zach Sudfeld (Patriots) and Jordan Cameron (Browns). Can Martellus Bennett (Bears) repeat the success he had with Eli Manning last year? Manning now has Brandon Myers from Oakland.

This is why it's smart to play the proven, reliable guys in Gonzalez and Graham. The Saints/Falcons rivalry usually means a ton of offense and these are two of the best in the game.

Jordan Cameron (minus-1 point)

Not much popped in the plus/minus for tight ends this week, but Cameron did have the most-negative score. He's had a nice preseason, but as we have seen countless times, that guarantees nothing. He was a fourth-round pick in 2011 and caught six forgettable passes as a rookie before moving up to 20 receptions for 226 yards in 2012. Progress at this position can be slow, but it takes a lot of faith in Brandon Weeden and the past history of offensive coordinator Norv Turner to believe Cameron is the next great tight end. This week he plays a Miami defense we project to be No. 6 in the league.

[h=3]Elite players[/h]
Finally, below is the list of the week's elite fantasy players I've left out of the tables, as well as their actual plus-minus scores. I recommend starting these players regardless of their matchups, but this information could come in handy if you're in a league with shallow rosters or are particularly flush with talent at a given position:

[h=4]Week 1 Projections for Elite Players[/h]

Pos	Team	Name	Proj	Pos	Team	Name	Proj
QB	NO	Drew Brees	+1	RB	PHI	LeSean McCoy	-1
QB	DET	Matthew Stafford	+1	RB	CLE	Trent Richardson	-3
QB	NE	Tom Brady	0	RB	SEA	Marshawn Lynch	-3
QB	DEN	Peyton Manning	0	RB	TB	Doug Martin	-3
QB	GB	Aaron Rodgers	-2	WR	ATL	Julio Jones	+1
QB	CAR	Cam Newton	-2	WR	NYG	Victor Cruz	+1
RB	MIN	Adrian Peterson	+3	WR	DET	Calvin Johnson	0
RB	KC	Jamaal Charles	+3	WR	DEN	Demaryius Thomas	0
RB	BUF	C.J. Spiller	0	WR	DAL	Dez Bryant	0
RB	WAS	Alfred Morris	0	WR	CHI	Brandon Marshall	0

HacheMan · Sep 4, 2013

Bills to start EJ Manuel at QB

By Mike Rodak | ESPN.com

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. -- The Buffalo Bills on Wednesday named rookie EJ Manuel as their starting quarterback for Sunday's opener against the New England Patriots.

Manuel, the first quarterback chosen in April's draft, underwent a minor procedure on his left knee Aug. 18 and missed the team's final two preseason games.
Manuel is back to full speed, coach Doug Marrone says.
"He's 110 percent healthy," Marrone said. "He looks good out there. So that's what we're going to go with."
The 16th overall pick was a combined 26-of-33 passing for 199 yards and two touchdowns without an interception in his two preseason appearances.
Marrone said last week that the Bills had planned on starting undrafted rookie Jeff Tuel, the only other quarterback on Buffalo's active roster, if Manuel was unable to play. But Manuel returned to practice Sunday, wearing a brace on his left knee.
Marrone said Manuel's recovery from the procedure was progressing ahead of schedule, and Manuel practiced fully on Monday. Marrone said the original plan was to have Manuel return to practice on a limited basis Monday.
"When he first came back, I was like 'Wow, he looks pretty good,'" Marrone said. "Then the thing was to be smart about it. When it started to move up, I started to feel like this was the way we were going."

At this point, Marrone said, the Bills aren't concerned with Manuel re-injuring his knee.
"What I was trying to make sure of was, by putting him back there, was there any chance [for it] to get worse?" Marrone said. "Once that was taken out of the equation, I felt very comfortable with the situation.
"Being Catholic, there was a lot of prayers," Marrone joked. "Honestly, you go home and say, 'I hope he's healthy, I hope he's healthy.' But you really don't know."
Although Sunday will mark Manuel's first NFL start, Marrone said he won't be lowering his expectations for the rookie.
"I'd be lying if I'm standing here saying that I don't expect him to do great things," Marrone said. "That's why he's out here. We expect not just EJ, but all of our players that are out there, to perform at a high level. If I lower my expectations of anybody on this team, am I doing my job as a coach?"

HacheMan · Sep 4, 2013

Jets to start Geno Smith at QB

By Rich Cimini | ESPN.com

FLORHAM PARK, N.J. -- The Geno Smith era starts now.

As expected, the New York Jets will start the rookie quarterback in the season opener Sunday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the team announced Wednesday. The last time the Jets started a rookie in Week 1 was 2009, when it was Mark Sanchez, whom Smith is replacing.
"We'll go through some ups and downs, I can guarantee you that," offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg said. "Knowing Geno, hopefully there will be more ups than downs. The whole team has to be part of this. Everybody has to play just a notch above for him to perform at a high level."
The choice became obvious in recent days. The Jets tried to keep it secret, but Sanchez was ruled out for the game with a bruised joint in his throwing shoulder, sources said.
On paper, Sanchez outplayed Smith in the preseason, but it became clear over the past two weeks that the organization wanted to make a change. Smith was handed the job despite missing a game because of a sprained ankle and despite a three-interception debacle in the third game -- his only extended outing.
In one sense, the former West Virginia star won the job by default, with Sanchez battling the shoulder injury. In all likelihood, Sanchez would've been named the starter if he hadn't been injured, sources said, but it created an opening for the organization to elevate Smith, albeit a huge risk.

It's conceivable that Sanchez may never again play for the Jets. There's no way the Jets will bench Smith if he's playing well. Sanchez could miss a few weeks because of the shoulder injury, sources said.
"He's just not ready right now," Jets coach Rex Ryan told the team's official website. "We'll see what the future holds as we move forward, but clearly right now he's not ready."
Sanchez will be the highest-paid backup in the NFL, earning a guaranteed $8.25 million -- part of a 2012 contract extension that prevented the team from unloading him in the offseason. He almost certainly will be jettisoned after the season.
It was an uneven summer for Smith, a second-round pick. He was terrific in the first two weeks of training camp, but he rolled an ankle in the first preseason game and his performance took a dip. Curiously, he didn't get a chance to rest the ankle, aggravating it to the point that he had to sit out the second game. The following week, with a chance to secure the job, he played poorly in three quarters.

"Before he had injured his ankle, he really looked tremendous," Ryan told the team's official website, adding: "He's back to driving the football."
Sanchez completed 64 percent of his passes and had a 90.0 passer rating, but he committed three turnovers -- painful reminders of his turnover-prone ways. He led the league with 52 turnovers in 2011 and 2012. Before that, he was considered the face of the franchise, a promising young quarterback who helped the Jets to back-to-back appearances in the AFC Championship Game.
Essentially, the crushing blow to his star-crossed career occurred in the third preseason game, when he was inserted in the fourth quarter with the backups -- a controversial move by Ryan -- and drilled outside the pocket by then-New York Giants defensive tackle Marvin Austin.
Jets owner Woody Johnson was asked Tuesday about Ryan's decision to play Sanchez that night.
"That was a decision that was made. I don't have any regrets. He's an experienced guy. I wished he hadn't gotten hurt, but you'e got to protect yourself too," he said.

HacheMan · Sep 5, 2013

Fantasy priorities

By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com

"RG III."

"Seriously?" I asked.
"Yes. RGIII."
The scene was at the third annual Cheshire Friends and Family draft, and I was having an argument with my 8-year-old stepson. I've written about the league before, both last year and more expansively in my book. It comprises my kids, their friends, their parents (and our friends), including the boys' father, my wife's ex-husband. We have a great time and it's unlike any other draft I do.
The kids have gotten better in the third year of playing, but still. They all just use the same ESPN cheat sheet that I hand out to everyone at the start of the draft. Local stars go way too early. (Was Jordan Todman, proud UConn grad, drafted in the eighth round of your 10-team league? Because he was in mine.) And there's always a hellacious kicker run in the ninth or so, as no one wants to start filling out their bench before completing a starting lineup.
Many of the parents in the league have multiple kids, so we switch the teams up every year. Last year, I was partnered with our middle son, the 12-year-old, while our 14-year-old played with his father and my wife played with Connor, the 8-year-old in question. Neither had played before, so it was a little like blind-leading-the-blind, but they figured it out and got to a very respectable fifth-place finish, missing the playoffs by virtue of a tiebreaker.
This year, the (now) 15-year-old is with his mom, our middle one is with his dad and I'm with our 8-year-old. I've been in his life since he was 4, so I managed to brainwash him into being a Redskins fan like me. So keep that in mind. Loves the Redskins. If I'm being honest, I was feeling pretty bad about sucking him into the life of misery and self-loathing that is being a Redskins fan, but that all changed when Washington drafted one Robert Griffin III. Last year was a great year for us, and his fanhood will be there for life, just like his old stepdad's.
Now, if you have two or more sons, you don't need me to explain this to you, but for those that don't, allow me to explain that Connor, having two brothers who are four and six years older, has spent the better part of his childhood getting the crap beaten out of him. The boys get along great until they don't, and among the things I love about Connor is that he is completely, 100 percent, totally fearless. Whether he's being picked on or is the instigator (it runs about 50/50), he has no problem launching himself at either of his much older, much bigger brothers and going to town. They fight back and then either my wife is or I am pulling them apart and they hate each other for about 10 minutes, at which time they get bored and are playing together again.

He's playing pee-wee football this year and he's like a mini-Urlacher out there. He's so thrilled to be tackling kids his own size, he's running down everything in sight. Had 15 solo tackles in his previous game. Crazy.
Anyway, I bring this up because, as a highly competitive kid with two older brothers, he desperately wants to win this league. I've won it two years in a row with each of the other two boys, so he feels like it's his turn now that he's with me. So it is against that backdrop -- desperately wanting to win but also being diehard Redskins fan -- that my soon-to-be 9-year-old and I enter the draft. Our friend Laura doesn't play, but she heard there would be adult refreshments, so in exchange for a glass of wine, she draws the names, and Connor and I wind up with the No. 2 pick.
Peterson goes No. 1, and I turn to him, each of us holding a cheat sheet.
Me: OK, our pick, kiddo. Who do you want?"
Connor: RG III.
Me: Seriously?
Connor: Yes. RG III.
RG III is his favorite player. He has the RG III socks. He has the official jersey. He has the trading card. His room has banners and stickers and posters. He loves RG III only slightly less than RG III's mom does. I love him too, of course, but I can't take him at No. 2. I know this kid also wants to win and frankly, with years of fantasy playing ingrained, I just can't do it. I won't allow myself.
"We'll draft him, I promise, but it's a little early for that. He'll still be there, I swear. OK?"
After a pause, Connor utters a very reluctant "OK."
"Which one of these running backs do you want?" I read off a handful of obvious names.
Connor chooses Arian Foster. Ah, to be 8 again, without worry of mortgages, taxes or Foster's soft-tissue concerns. There are a few head-scratchers in the first round (Colin Kaepernick went No. 8) and as we are sitting there at the end of the second round, there are some great guys who have fallen.
Me: Who do you want?
Connor: RG III.
Me: Connor, Peyton is still available. So are Brady and Cam. I promise, we'll take him but it's way too early for a QB, OK?
Connor (after a longer pause): OK.
Jamaal Charles is still available. So is Trent Richardson. He wants Charles, so that's what we go with. On the whole, I don't love Griffin as a fantasy QB, I think he will regress a bit, but whatever. It's Connor's favorite player, I will draft him. But I just can't pass on Richardson or Charles in Round 2. I know my kid; he's gonna wanna win and this is how you win.
Richardson and, yes, Matthew Stafford go back to back and now it's us in Round 3.
Connor: Can we draft RG III now?

Me: Well, there's this guy Jimmy Graham that is still available. He's the best tight end out there. What do you think about drafting him here?
Connor: No RG III?
Me: We'll get him next round, I promise. Peyton is still available. So is Cam. But this guy is the best at his position.
Connor: You promise we can get him next round?
Me: I promise.
We take Graham and the draft continues. Even though it goes against everything I believe in, I think to myself, I'm doing this league for him, we'll take RG III in the fourth.

Now, my friend Gary and his son Owen are in the league, and they are both diehard Eagles fans. LeSean McCoy in the first, DeSean Jackson in the second, Eagles fans. Every year, they've basically gone with an all-Eagles lineup. They have the pick right before us in Round 4, so I am shocked -- shocked! -- when they declare, "We'll take RG III."
My kid is crestfallen. He looks at me with puppy-dog eyes that scream, "But ... you promised ...!" I have ruined Christmas for him. And Easter. And SpongeBob. I am the worst parent alive. Tears are starting to well up. I turn to Gary.
Me: Really? Why aren't you going all Eagles again?
Gary: We finished last the last two years. Time to change it up.
I turn to Connor. He is beside himself. I might as well have ripped candy from his mouth and shoved in broccoli.
Me: I'll trade for him, OK? We'll get him.
Connor (not buying it at all): OK.
I'm being super-happy energetic dad now, trying hard to sell this.
Me: I swear, we'll get him, OK? I swear. We're still OK. We have a great team. Who do you want to pick? We can do a quarterback here if you want. Or Demaryius Thomas is still available. You want him?
Connor: I don't care.
Now I am crestfallen. The only player the kid cared about was RG III. It made no fantasy sense, it was out of whack with any logical ADP, even in this goofy league. It would have been a dumb move in every single category except one: It would have made the kid happy. That's what fantasy football is supposed to do, right?
We play it for fun. It's a simple 10-team league with kids and many parents who have just started playing and certainly aren't obsessive about it. Couldn't I have still had a good chance at us winning the league if I took RG III second overall? Of course I could have. The whole point of the league -- really, the only point -- is to spend time with the kids and have fun. And drafting Robert Griffin III second overall, or instead of Jamaal Charles in the second or Jimmy Graham in the third would have made the kid deliriously happy. That simple. Missed opportunity by me.
I get asked in interviews all the time about the fantasy move I regret the most or biggest fantasy mistake I've ever made.
Now I have my answer.
As we start the 2013 fantasy football season, you'll be faced with many, many decisions. Whom to start, whom to sit, whom to trade, whom to drop, and whom to draft. There's lots of research and football reasons that will go through your mind when you make your decisions, and some will work out and some won't. None of us can tell the future and ultimately, we play this game for fun.

In one league, I'm starting Kenbrell Thompkins this week over Ryan Mathews. Conventional wisdom says you play the starting running back over the undrafted free-agent rookie wideout, but you know what? I can't stand Mathews (I only drafted him because it got to be such a ridiculous value I couldn't resist) and I love Thompkins, so forget about it. Week 1, gimme the rookie. Because I'll have more fun rooting for Thompkins than for Mathews.
I just think about Connor's face at the moment. We'll win some games this year, we'll lose some, and ultimately it won't matter and we'll eventually forget it, a year or two from now. But I'll never forget that face. So play to win, but realize having fun along the way is the point of it all. In the long run, it'll save you from saying things like, "Seriously, Gary, anyone you want! Foster? Foster and Charles? What do you need for RG III?"
Gary took it easy on me, settling for Tony Romo and me buying his drinks for the next six months, so we do have RG III on the team now. Whew. And as we saunter into the first Love/Hate of the year, here's hoping your mistakes can be fixed as easily.
First, a few ground rules. As always, this is not a pure start-and-sit column. I can't stand those terms. Every player is a potential sit or a potential start depending on who else you have to choose from, your league scoring system, size of league and other factors. Rather, this is a list of players I expect to do better or worse than either my fellow rankers expect, or, at any rate, better or worse than the general expectation you have of this player from week to week.
The only thing I dislike more than the terms "start" and "sit" are people who ask things like, "You love Kenbrell Thompkins and hate Andre Johnson, should I start Thompkins over Johnson?" The answer, of course, is yes. If you ask me that question, you deserve to do that to your team. Of course not! I don't love Johnson as a top-10 play this week (he was drafted as a top-10 guy), so I'm probably not using him in a salary cap or player-eliminator game. But I do like the undrafted (or late-round) Thompkins as a No. 3 receiver this week in his debut against the Bills. For specific "Whom do I start" questions, please check my rankings, which I update constantly throughout the week. Shout out and thanks to Zach Rodgers of ESPN Stats & Information for his help and away we go.

[h=3]Quarterbacks I love in Week 1[/h]Tony Romo, Cowboys: Has thrown for over 300 yards in three of his past four games against the Giants, including both of the games last season. He's thrown for more touchdowns against the Giants than any other team -- granted, he plays them twice a year -- and with the offensive line issues of the Cowboys, I can't see them running very effectively here. So expect lots of Romo out of the shotgun, especially because there is no one on the Giants who can cover Dez Bryant one-on-one. Romo is a top-five play for me this week and, just remember, it's September. Tony Romo doesn't break your heart until December.
Matt Ryan, Falcons: Falcons-Saints is going to be shootout city. I have Ryan at No. 3 this week.
Michael Vick, Eagles: Vick on Monday night against the Redskins? What could possibly go wrong? Vick has looked fantastic this preseason and, as Ed Werder tweeted the other day, the Skins admit they aren't sure what to expect. Vick is healthy now, and I have him just outside my top 10 this week.
Joe Flacco, Ravens: No Von Miller to generate a pass rush (in 100 pass attempts against without Miller on the field last season, Denver had zero interceptions), no Champ Bailey in the secondary and Torrey Smith streaking down the sideline, Flacco makes a solid second-tier QB this week if you're looking outside the top 10.
If you're desperate: I expect Alex Smith to throw, throw, throw this year and against the Jags, he should have another solid double-digit fantasy game. ... Under the adage that rushing yards and junk-time stats count, don't be surprised if EJ Manuel and Terrelle Pryor wind up as top-20 quarterbacks this week in their respective impending blowout losses.

[h=3]Quarterbacks I hate in Week 1[/h]Eli Manning, Giants: Two touchdowns or fewer in seven of his past nine games against the Cowboys, including a total of one, you heard me, one touchdown pass in last season's games. OK, fine, you say, but this is a different Cowboys team from last year. Rob Ryan is no longer there, you say. True, but the Cowboys have brought in Monte Kiffin, master of the Tampa 2 defense. As the Wall Street Journal noted, Eli has struggled in 12 career games against the Tampa 2, with only nine touchdowns and 14 interceptions. It has been quite a while since Eli has seen it, and if you tack on a banged-up offensive line and both Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks at potentially less than 100 percent, I just don't see a big game for Eli.
Russell Wilson, Seahawks: Overall, I love him, but I kind of think the Panthers defense is legit, particularly their very impressive front seven, so I don't expect a ton of rushing yards from Wilson. He struggled against them last year, with only 221 yards and a score along with two picks, and while he's a different quarterback now than he was then, I still expect a semi-low scoring game here, which puts Wilson just outside my top 10.
Jay Cutler, Bears: Marc Trestman, Marc Schmestman. He's going to do good things in Chicago but the Bengals are legit. They sack everything in sight and, believe me, the statue that is Jay Cutler will be clearly visible. Don't get cute here.
Philip Rivers, Chargers: What has your team ever done to you? Not even in two-quarterback leagues.

[h=3]Running backs I love in Week 1[/h]Alfred Morris, Redskins: It's the return of Robert Griffin III! Chip Kelly unveils his new offense! All sorts of hype will go into this game, but no one is going to mention the fact that Alfred Morris is going to run all over these guys. No team allowed more rushing yards in the preseason than the Philadelphia Eagles. Washington is always a team that likes to control time of possession and, with the Eagles' up-tempo offense coming in, they'll want to slow it down as much as possible. First game action for RG III since last season's playoff loss, they're going to be a little cautious with him. Seriously, Morris might get 30 carries in this game. I have Morris at No. 2 for the week and I might be too low on him.

C.J. Spiller, Bills: Obvious name, but I've gotten a lot of questions about Spiller; will he be affected by poor QB play and/or the Bills getting down big? The answer is no. If you have him, you're starting him. Period.
Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars: Always a tough tackle, even last year MJD had a higher yards after contact average than Marshawn Lynch, Frank Gore and Trent Richardson, among others. Why do I bring this up, you ask? Glad you did, imaginary reader who speaks out loud to columns. Because last year no team allowed more yards after contact than the Kansas City Chiefs. They made improvements to the defense in the offseason, but not enough to stop MJD in Week 1.
Arian Foster, Texans: I know, I know. Reduced workload, hasn't played all preseason, hates fantasy football. Whatever. You're playing him. Don't be stupid. OK, fine, you're already reading this column, so how about don't be stupider. How many touches do you think he needs to be a top-10 back this week? The answer, class, is not a lot.
David Wilson, Giants: All the stuff I wrote about why Eli would struggle is why Wilson makes fantasy confetti out of your opponent's lineup, which makes sense if you move along quickly and don't really think about it. Wilson is now the goal-line back and the Giants have the fifth-most rushes inside an opponent's 10-yard line the past three years.
Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen, Patriots: Just because it's obvious doesn't mean it's not true. Worth noting, for Vereen owners, that Danny Woodhead scored in both games against the Bills last season.
Reggie Bush, Lions: After talking about him nonstop in preseason, I get to talk about him for Week 1. The Lions completed 99 passes thrown 10 yards or fewer downfield to running backs last season, fifth most in the league, and that was with Mikel Leshoure and Joique Bell. The Vikings allowed the most receptions 10 yards or fewer downfield last season.
If you're desperate: Vick Ballard is going to get a lot more work against Oakland than you realize, and that's a good thing. ... I could easily see the Chargers getting down big this week and having to play catch-up in the second half, making Danny Woodhead a sneaky play. … I don't see the Steelers running very effectively, so in a potentially pass-heavy game for the Steelers, I bet LaRod Stephens-Howling gets more work than you think. ... Don't be surprised if Roy Helu gets some work and is very effective with it. Again, Eagles run defense = hot mess.

[h=3]Running backs I hate in Week 1[/h]Any Broncos running back: It's Montee Ball, it's Ronnie Hillman, it's Knowshon Moreno, no, it's back to Hillman ... ugh. The Ravens have a great line, there's no clarity here and while I wouldn't be shocked if one of them ends up with a good game, good luck guessing who that is. If I have to start one, it's Ball, because he's most likely to get a goal-line carry, but I'm doing everything I can to avoid this until we have more clarity.
Eddie Lacy, Packers: Insert running back facing the Niners here.
Any Jets running back: Bilal Powell is going to start for the Jets. Doesn't mean he has to start for your squad. I mean, your fantasy team is better than the Jets, right? The Bucs had the No. 1 run defense last season.
Rashard Mendenhall, Cardinals: Forget the health thing, with both Mendy and his offensive line. What really sets this one for me is that the Rams allowed 2.1 yards per rush in the red zone last season, fourth best in the league. And it appears that Stepfan Taylor is going to get goal-line work in Arizona, not Mendenhall. He's a desperation flex this week, nothing more.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Bengals: Bears allowed only three rushing touchdowns inside their 10-yard line last season. You think Law Firm is gonna break one?
Ryan Mathews, Chargers: I could write something negative here, or I could just ask you to talk to someone who owned him last year. He actually did look good in the preseason, but this is a tough matchup for a variety of reasons. Low-end flex at best.

[h=3]Wide receivers I love in Week 1[/h]Randall Cobb, Packers: Second to Wes Welker last year in receptions out of the slot. The 49ers allowed 113 receptions to opposing slot receivers last season, fourth most in the league. I'm starting him with confidence.
Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs: Good shot at being top five in targets this week. And every week, frankly. But especially this week as the Jaguars are not ... what is that word again? Oh yes, good. The Jaguars are not good.

Reggie Wayne and T.Y. Hilton, Colts: I'd start you against the Raiders. As a flex, I mean. Let's not get crazy. I've seen you at happy hour. You can put them away, you know? You're more a possession receiver than a deep threat these days, but whatever. Against the Raiders, you're flex-worthy.
Pierre Garcon, Redskins: Fully healthy now, it ain't like the Eagles secondary is all that either.
Torrey Smith, Ravens: See Flacco, Joe. It's not whether Torrey scores or not, it's how long the touchdown is.
Chris Givens, Rams: Cardinals have a great secondary, no doubt. But they'll still take shots downfield. Last year, Givens had the fourth-most targets on throws 30 yards or more downfield. Meanwhile, the Cardinals were tied for sixth-most touchdowns allowed on such throws. Givens will get a few deep shots and has a decent chance of converting one, making him a WR3 with upside.
Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders, Steelers: I own one or both of these guys on almost every team of mine, so at least I put my money where my mouth is. Given that I expect the Steelers to struggle to run the ball, I do expect them to pass, and pass a lot. To these two guys. The Titans had the worst scoring defense in the league last year and it remains a work in progress. And while we are all works in progress, we're not facing the Steelers this week.
If you're desperate: Antonio Cromartie had a much better season than I suspect you realize last year, and I don't see Vincent Jackson going nuts on him, which means Mike Williams will get the same red zone looks he got last year. ... Boy, oh boy do I like Kenbrell Thompkins, and even though we haven't seen him in a regular-season game, I'd have no issue starting him against Buffalo if necessary. ... Think Darrius Heyward-Bey wants to get some revenge on Oakland? Me too. DHB is starting in two-receiver sets these day, not T.Y. Hilton.

[h=3]Wide receivers I hate in Week 1[/h]Andre Johnson, Texans: It's not just the lack of red zone threats, it's the fact I expect this game to be out of hand early and Houston to not need to throw at all. Solid, but not a top-10 play this week.
Wes Welker, Broncos: While I expect Peyton Manning to have a nice game tonight, the damage should mostly be done on the outside as the Ravens actually defend the slot very well. Baltimore allowed only 74 receptions and four receiving touchdowns to slot receivers last season, both tied for third fewest in the league.
Mike Wallace, Dolphins: I've been crushing this guy all preseason, why should Week 1 be any different? The truth is, I believe Joe Haden is a true shutdown corner and, in fact, when Wallace was with Pittsburgh, he had fewer than 60 yards in three straight games against Haden and zero touchdowns, including games of nine and 11 yards. And now he's going in there with Ryan Tannehill.

[h=3]Tight ends I love in Week 1:[/h]Jordan Cameron, Browns: It can't be all Trent Richardson. With Josh Gordon out, I expect Cameron to get a lot of looks in this game, especially in the red zone. Remember, in a nine-year NFL career as a coach, Rob Chudzinski has had five seasons with a tight end getting over 100 targets. I believe this will be season No. 6.
Zach Sudfeld, Patriots: He's going to start. Against the Bills. And Rob Gronkowski isn't. The Bills gave up over 150 yards and two scores to Patriots tight ends last year, and Aaron Hernandez didn't play in either of those games. I have Sudfeld as a top-five play this week.
Antonio Gates, Chargers: They're gonna be down and they're gonna be throwing. For what it's worth, the Texans were tied for giving up the second-most touchdowns to opposing tight ends last year.
Brent Celek, Eagles: If you need a second-tier guy this week, I sort of like Celek. Keep in mind that, during the first nine weeks last season -- before Michael Vick went down with an injury -- Celek was targeted 53 times, seventh among tight ends in that time frame. And that last year, the Redskins allowed 98 receptions to opposing tight ends (most in the league), including 10 touchdowns (tied for second most in the league). For you guys who drafted Gronkowski and are streaming options until he comes back, you could do a lot worse.
If you're desperate: I like both Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener, in that order, against the Raiders, as Indy begins using a lot more two-tight end sets under Pep Hamilton. ... For what it's worth, Scott Chandler scored three times in two games against the Patriots last season.

[h=3]Tight ends I hate in Week 1[/h]Kyle Rudolph, Vikings: We know Rudolph is a red zone machine, tying for the NFL lead in red zone touchdowns, but he's not a fully ingrained guy in the offense yet. I could see him having to block more to protect Christian Ponder against the Lions front line and Detroit is pretty good in the red zone against tight ends, allowing only three red zone scores to tight ends last year. Last year, Rudolph had one good game against them and one stinker. Which is what it will be like for most tight ends this year. Some good, some bad, all inconsistent. I have Rudolph outside my top 10 this week.
Jared Cook, Rams: Maybe this is the breakout year we're all waiting for with Cook. Certainly, there are a lot of believers. But until we see it on the field, I want to be cautious, so I'd prefer not to start him against the Cardinals, who allowed only 46 receptions to opposing tight ends last season, fewest in the league. I have Cook outside my top 10 this week.
Jermaine Gresham, Bengals: Unless your league awards points for blocking.

[h=3]Defenses I love in Week 1[/h]New England Patriots D/ST: Hello, rookie.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers D/ST: Revis Island returns and gets Geno Smith in his first start ever. I'm sorry. I meant to say "Has-not-played-a-lot-in-the-preseason-and-hasn't-looked-good-when-he-did-rookie-quarterback" Geno Smith is waiting for them. Yummy.
Indianapolis Colts D/ST: The Raiders offense -- and specifically, their offensive line -- looks horrific.
Cleveland Browns D/ST: Had them ranked as a top-10 defense coming into the season and I certainly like them this week. We already discussed Joe Haden, but did you know that the Browns had 12 interceptions in home games last season, tied with the Falcons for most in the league. And oh yeah, Ryan Tannehill threw twice as many interceptions (eight) as touchdowns (four) when he was on the road last season.
Detroit Lions D/ST: Great defensive line at home, chasing Christian Ponder.

[h=3]Defenses I hate in Week 1[/h]Green Bay Packers D/ST: Did you not see the playoff game last year? Single-digit fantasy points when they played San Fran in the regular season as well, I don't see the 49ers committing many (if any) turnovers here, and Kaepernick's mobility and strength make him a tough sack.
San Francisco 49ers D/ST: If the Packers get down, they're going to keep throwing and throwing until they claw their way back into it. Only five points for the Niners D when they faced Green Bay in last year's regular-season opener; there are better options available on the waiver wire.
Denver Broncos D/ST: No Von Miller, no Champ Bailey; hard to trust this defense as a top-10 play tonight.
And there you have it, gang. Great to be back for another season. We'll see you tonight at 7:30 p.m. ET for a special edition of "Fantasy Football Now" on ESPN, and then Sunday morning for the show's regular-season kickoff at 11 a.m. ET on ESPN2.

HacheMan · Sep 5, 2013

Flex ranks: Tough matchup for Packers

Eric Karabell

Here we go with the first Top 100 flex rankings of the 2013 fantasy football season!

Thank you for joining us in this space in past seasons, and get ready for four full months of fun as we combine the top running backs, wide receivers and tight ends into one tidy Thursday package that hopefully will aid in your decision-making and help vault you to meaningful fantasy games in late December.

For more advice, check out the Week 1 staff rankings in the usual spots, or perhaps your question was answered in one of our chats this week or by me and pretty much our entire staff from Wednesday.

Good luck to all this season, and remember, these are your teams, so make your own decisions. That said, it never hurts to get another opinion.

1. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings: Take the under on 2,000 yards, but it's tough to make a case he's not No. 1.

2. Doug Martin, RB, Buccaneers: Honestly, any of the next six or seven running backs could be in this spot, so let's not quibble. But they're all in the second tier.

3. C.J. Spiller, RB, Bills

4. Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs

5. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks: The first running back to downgrade in a PPR format. But not too much.

6. Ray Rice, RB, Ravens

7. LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles: I'm interested in seeing how many receiving targets he gets in this new offense.

8. Trent Richardson, RB, Browns

9. Alfred Morris, RB, Redskins

10. David Wilson, RB, Giants: I don't know why people are concerned about him being his own goal-line back. Many starting running backs don't need help with this.

11. Stevan Ridley, RB, Patriots

12. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions

13. Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys

14. Chris Johnson, RB, Titans

15. Julio Jones, WR, Falcons: Four career games against the Saints, and only one really big performance. That changes this year.

16. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars: Welcome back, MJD! Big things are expected, at least from me.

17. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos: I think I've heard enough about how the No. 41 guy on this list is going to make this guy far less valuable. I'm not listening.

18. A.J. Green, WR, Bengals

19. Steven Jackson, RB, Falcons

20. Arian Foster, RB, Texans: Probably his worst rank in this space ever. But the coach claims he won't get a full workload. It's refreshing knowing that coaches always tell the truth.

21. Reggie Bush, RB, Lions: The first seven of his 80 catches for the season come in Week 1.

22. Matt Forte, RB, Bears

23. Vincent Jackson, WR, Buccaneers

24. Andre Johnson, WR, Texans

25. Frank Gore, RB, 49ers

26. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals: You'll notice the difference in how Carson Palmer gets him the ball versus John Skelton and Kevin Kolb right away.

27. Jimmy Graham, TE, Saints

28. Brandon Marshall, WR, Bears: His hip hurts so much he's not even on the injury report. This is a non-issue.

29. Darren Sproles, RB, Saints

30. Danny Amendola, WR, Patriots: Would like to say he's 100 percent, but you know it's not true. I just happen to like this matchup.

31. Lamar Miller, RB, Dolphins: Have a feeling he'll rank better in future weeks. On a related note, you won't see Daniel Thomas on this list anywhere.

32. Roddy White, WR, Falcons: When a 31-year-old has an ankle injury, everyone fears the end is near. What if Roddy were 25? Don't overthink this. He's playing the Saints.

33. Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts: A year ago this week, all people could discuss with Wayne was his age. A little Luck changed all that.

34. Randall Cobb, WR, Packers: Perhaps his toughest matchup of the season, and he's ranked 34th. Love his potential.

35. DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys: Claims he'll play in 16 games. I'm optimistic that he will; he could need the 2014 schedule to get to that many.

36. Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders: Didn't see any such claims from this guy.

37. Pierre Garcon, WR, Redskins

38. Victor Cruz, WR, Giants

39. Daryl Richardson, RB, Rams: Might seem strange, but if he doesn't play well this weekend, all bets are off. Isaiah Pead will be eligible for Week 2, and they've got a hotshot rookie. There's a small window but big upside here.

40. Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs: Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn versus Alex Smith. OK, so he's not Joe Montana, but still.

41. Wes Welker, WR, Broncos: I say he catches 88 passes this season. Not exactly a bad year.

42. Marques Colston, WR, Saints

43. Ben Tate, RB, Texans: For those who feel like we're overrating this fellow, look at his 2011 season, not last year.

44. Eddie Lacy, RB, Packers

45. Tony Gonzalez, TE, Falcons: This guy is smart enough to know that if he truly was done, he'd leave the game. He's far from it. He's the second-best tight end this week and until Rob Gronkowski returns. By the way, would it really shock anyone if Gronk made a stunning appearance Sunday? Just be prepared.

46. Mike Wallace, WR, Dolphins: About time we see for ourselves how he and quarterback Ryan Tannehill aren't on the same page, because I'm guessing they're just fine.

47. Jason Witten, TE, Cowboys

48. Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Colts

49. Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers
50. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Bengals: Yep, he's ranked ahead of the rookie (for now). And on a related note, rookies tend to be overrated in fantasy. Law Firm will be fine if he plays well.

51. Cecil Shorts, WR, Jaguars

52. Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens

53. Hakeem Nicks, WR, Giants

54. Chris Ivory, RB, Jets: Jets claim he's not the Week 1 starter. It's certainly possible, though it doesn't really change his rank. Man, talk about a dysfunctional team. (Now watch them start by winning three of four.)

55. Shane Vereen, RB, Patriots

56. Steve Smith, WR, Panthers

57. DeSean Jackson, WR, Eagles

58. Montee Ball, RB, Broncos: Still my top Denver running back for Thursday, and someone to trade for even if early September is quiet for him.

59. Eric Decker, WR, Broncos

60. Isaac Redman, RB, Steelers

61. Giovani Bernard, RB, Bengals: I'm a big fan of this guy, but Law Firm gets more touches.

62. Kenbrell Thompkins, WR, Patriots: Yeah, I guess I'm all-in on this guy, though.

63. Ryan Mathews, RB, Chargers: So overrated in years past that he has become a bit underrated now. Will have to stay up very late on the East Coast to watch his game Monday, though.

64. Lance Moore, WR, Saints

65. Mark Ingram, RB, Saints

66. Mike Williams, WR, Buccaneers

67. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Cardinals

68. DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers: Tough matchup for him, but a decent buy-low next week.

69. Tavon Austin, WR, Rams

70. James Jones, WR, Packers: I don't understand why people assume he can't succeed if the next fellow is healthy. And by the way, the next fellow really isn't 100 percent.

71. Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers: I think he's still banged up, but it doesn't matter this week: They play the 49ers.

72. Steve Johnson, WR, Bills

73. Anquan Boldin, WR, 49ers

74. Vick Ballard, RB, Colts: Should see work this week when the Colts are up three touchdowns in the first half.

75. T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts

76. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Broncos: Own him, but don't look for reasons to start him.

77. Ronnie Hillman, RB, Broncos

78. Chris Givens, WR, Rams

79. Vincent Brown, WR, Chargers

80. Golden Tate, WR, Seahawks

81. Greg Jennings, WR, Vikings

82. Miles Austin, WR, Cowboys

83. Bryce Brown, RB, Eagles

84. Sidney Rice, WR, Seahawks

85. Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Steelers: I keep saying his numbers will look a lot like Antonio Brown's, but the rank doesn't match up. It should in future weeks.

86. Jared Cook, TE, Rams: Time for my tight end sleeper to match my expectations with his play.

87. Fred Jackson, RB, Bills

88. Michael Bush, RB, Bears

89. Kenny Britt, WR, Titans

90. Denarius Moore, WR, Raiders

91. Bernard Pierce, RB, Ravens

92. Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Falcons

93. Danny Woodhead, RB, Chargers

94. Alshon Jeffery, WR, Bears

95. Shonn Greene, RB, Titans

96. Michael Floyd, WR, Cardinals

97. Bilal Powell, RB, Jets

98. Joique Bell, RB, Lions

99. Rueben Randle, WR, Giants

100. Ryan Broyles, WR, Lions

Others: Malcom Floyd, WR, Chargers; Mohamed Sanu, WR, Bengals; Brian Hartline, WR, Dolphins; Zach Sudfeld, TE, Patriots; Roy Helu, RB, Redskins; Felix Jones, RB, Steelers; LaRod Stephens-Howling, RB, Steelers; Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints.

HacheMan · Sep 8, 2013

[h=1]Kaepernick poised for greatness?[/h][h=3]McFadden, Foster major Week 1 question marks; keep eye on injury risks[/h]By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

Hey, did you hear that the Fantasy Underground podcast has gone to two shows per week? Field Yates and I will be watching as much film as ever, and discussing potential waiver pickups on Tuesdays, with a larger look at the league-on-film coming Thursdays. We are the Underground: We resist the tyranny of the box score to look beyond mere statistics, and tell you what players actually look like. Join us! In the meantime, enjoy Week 1. Here are seven storylines:

Three in depth

1. Why Colin Kaepernick > Russell Wilson (at least at the moment). I like Russell Wilson. I really like him. He reminds me of Fran Tarkenton, who led his teams to three Super Bowls and is a Hall of Famer. I admit I was wrong to believe Wilson had a limited NFL future because of his size. And I rank Wilson as a top-10 fantasy QB for 2013. But some Seattle Seahawks fans don't care. They hear me gushing about Colin Kaepernick, and they conclude that I must hate Wilson.