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hacheman@therx.com
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Consistency Ratings: Week 12

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

No fear.

Here's the funny thing about strength-of-schedule analysis -- a popular topic right now because of the upcoming fantasy playoffs -- somebody gets the favorable schedule, and in exchange, somebody else gets the unfavorable schedule. It's the latter that instills fear in fantasy owners this time of year.

Ah, but here's the grand thing about sports: Things don't always play perfectly in line with expectations. Some players are capable of rising above their matchups.

Again, no fear.

The measures used in this space can't solely be used to measure consistent weekly performers; they can also be used to identify matchup-busters, players for whom you shouldn't sweat a bad schedule. There's a simple way to do this: split the statistics by difficulty of matchup and see who succeeds most in each group.

Today, let's do that, isolating only the most difficult matchups. We'll define these as the eight least favorable in the given season, using opposing defenses' fantasy points per game allowed to each position, and we'll use statistics from 2010 to 2013 for a more meaningful sample size. (This means that fantasy-points-allowed rankings for 2010 games are only 2010 numbers, 2011 for 2011 and so on.)

Every player listed below faces one of the worst remaining schedules at his position, but accounting for their histories of performance facing difficult matchups, there isn't a chance I would trade any of them (at below value, that is, as anyone has a price).


Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints

11 G, 7 Start, 2 Stud, 1 Stiff, 63.6 percent Consistency Rating (No. 1 among quarterbacks with at least five bottom-eight matchups); Saints have the second-worst schedule for a quarterback (totaling remaining opponents' fantasy points allowed per game).

Hello, Captain Consistency. This might be a "no duh" realization, but historically speaking, the caliber of defense that Brees has faced has been irrelevant, exemplified not only by his quarterback-leading 70.7 percent Consistency Rating overall since the beginning of 2010 (also leads with 80 percent in 2013 alone) but also his position-best rating against the bottom 25 percent of quarterback matchups.

Here's why that's important: We've now witnessed the Carolina Panthers shut down Colin Kaepernick and Tom Brady in back-to-back weeks, and it won't be long before Brees' owners look forward on his schedule and see Panthers matchups upcoming in Weeks 14 and 16, both of those playoff weeks. Toss in a Week 13 at the Seattle Seahawks -- the second-best defense at limiting quarterback scoring -- and it's an easy argument that Brees' remaining schedule is brutal.

So ask yourself what you believe: that Brees' fantasy production is about to go into the tank or that his streak of four consecutive games with 325-plus passing yards totaling 12 passing touchdowns against the Panthers takes precedence? I know the side I prefer, examining his historical consistency against the worst matchups.

Jimmy Graham, TE, New Orleans Saints

13 G, 6 Start, 2 Stud, 5 Stiff, 46.2 percent Consistency Rating (third among tight ends with at least five bottom-eight matchups); Saints have the fifth-worst schedule for a tight end.

Well, if Brees is matchup-proof, it follows that Graham would be too. Heck, Graham's consistency against lockdown defenses in large part is thanks to Brees, and vice versa, evidenced most by this fact: Since the beginning of 2010, Graham is the Saints' team leader in targets (418, 3 more than Marques Colston), red zone targets (62, again 3 more than Colston) and goal-to-go targets (28, 6 more than Lance Moore and Darren Sproles), illustrating precisely how critical he is to Brees in scoring position.

Remember that Week 8 game, during which Graham squeezed in 17 snaps played despite a foot injury and totaled 15 fantasy points? There's no greater evidence that Graham's role is what drives his fantasy production, and it's that of Brees' most trusted option when he smells a touchdown. Besides, consider this: The Panthers, after affording a touchdown to Rob Gronkowski in Week 11, have surrendered five scores to the position in the past seven weeks, while the Seahawks allowed Timothy Wright and John Carlson to total 17 fantasy points against them in the past three weeks.

As an aside, let's delve a little into how unreliable the tight end position is as a whole facing such difficult schedules as Graham's, yet another reason why his remaining path should inspire no fear. Consider that the only tight ends with at least five matchups against bottom-eight defenses since the beginning of 2010 to have been a Stiff -- a weekly score outside the top 20 at the position -- less than one-third of the time are Jason Witten (1 in 17), Tony Gonzalez (1 in 11), Owen Daniels (1 in 6), Jermichael Finley (3 in 10) and Vernon Davis (4 in 13).

In the examples of Witten and Gonzalez in particular, be aware that both players face remaining tight end schedules ranking in the bottom half of the league, with Witten's 52.9 percent track record of success (9-for-17), not to mention his position-leading 3 Stud scores in this split, an encouraging sign.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seattle Seahawks

19 G, 11 Start, 4 Stud (No. 1 among running backs), 3 Stiff, 57.9 percent Consistency Rating; Seahawks have the worst schedule for a running back.

He's the No. 1 running back in fantasy points, he faces the worst remaining schedule for anyone at his position, and his Seahawks are on their bye week, meaning he has 17 percent fewer remaining games than a typical running back, so naturally the only decision to make is to sell high on Lynch, right?

Wrong.

If the crux of the remaining-matchups argument against Lynch is his games against the San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals, be aware that he has scored 65 fantasy points total in his past three against the 49ers and 54 in his past three against the Cardinals. To put that into perspective, consider that, since the beginning of 2012, no other running back has more than 33 fantasy points total against the 49ers (Ahmad Bradshaw, in two games) or 20 in an individual game against them (Danny Woodhead, 2012 Week 15) and no other running back has more than 30 fantasy points total against the Cardinals (Frank Gore, in three games) or 21 in an individual game (Adrian Peterson, 2012 Week 7). Lynch has dominated these D's in a way no one else has recently.

[h=4]Consistency Ratings Benchmarks[/h]Using 2013 statistics and fantasy points determined by ESPN's standard scoring, the charts contained in this column rate players based on how consistently reliable they are. To familiarize you with some of the terminology:
Start: The number of times that the player's point total in a given week was worthy of having had him active in an ESPN standard league.
Stud: The number of times the player's point total ranked among the top at his position.
Stiff: The number of times the player's point total ranked among the worst at his position, making almost any waiver-wire option a smarter choice.
These are the benchmarks for what constitutes a Start, Stud or Stiff performance, numbers identifying the player's rank at his position:
<CENTER>Start</CENTER><CENTER>Stud</CENTER><CENTER>Stiff</CENTER>
QBTop 10Top 221st+
RBTop 25Top 551st+
WRTop 25Top 551st+
TETop 10Top 221st+
KTop 10Top 221st+
D/STTop 10Top 221st+

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Sat: The number of times the player missed a game. Players are not charged Stiff points for sitting out, but it hurts their overall Consistency Rating.
%: The player's overall Consistency Rating, calculated as number of Start performances divided by scheduled team games.



Zac Stacy, RB, St. Louis Rams

3 G, 2 Start, 0 Stud, 1 Stiff; Rams have the seventh-worst schedule for a running back.

This one manipulates the sample size, as three games is usually not enough evidence to support a player's ability to buck the matchups, especially when one of those games was a Stiff performance. That said, Stacy's Stiff game came in Week 1, when he was not the starter, was locked in a battle for the No. 2 duties and had just one carry against the stifling Cardinals. In his other two games against bottom-eight matchups -- Weeks 7 at the Panthers and 8 versus the Seahawks -- he totaled 27 fantasy points, thanks to 21 and 27 touches in those games.

Stacy has topped 25 carries in each of his past three games, and while not a single one of his remaining games represents a plus matchup, he is sure to get the ball anywhere from 15 to 30 times depending upon game flow. Workload alone supports his case, as do the 4.3 yards per carry and 1.8 yards after contact per carry he averaged against those challenging matchups in Weeks 7 and 8.

T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts

6 G, 3 Start, 2 Stud, 2 Stiff, 50.0 percent Consistency Rating (tied for sixth among wide receivers with at least five bottom-eight matchups); Colts have the fourth-worst schedule for a wide receiver.

In addition to the above numbers, consider this: Hilton's 12.7 fantasy points per game in those six contests are the most of any wide receiver with at least five such matchups. Granted, some of that might have been the product of his having been the No. 2 receiver behind a healthy Reggie Wayne, but the argument that Hilton's per-game target total should be higher in the final six weeks than the first six is valid, and that alone might be enough to drive him into double digits a few more times.

That said, be aware that wide receivers as a whole tend to struggle facing the most challenging matchups, just as tight ends do. That's why Hilton's production stands out; most wide receivers are Stiffs more than one-third of the time, many as often as half the time or worse.

Other quarterback matchup-busters: Michael Vick (5 Starts in 8 matchups, 62.5 percent), Tom Brady (9-for-18, 50.0 percent, 4 Stud G), Aaron Rodgers (4-for-8, 50.0 percent, 1 Stud G), Matthew Stafford (3-for-7, 42.9 percent, 2 Stud G).

Other running back matchup-busters: Maurice Jones-Drew (10-for-11, 90.9 percent), LeSean McCoy (9-for-10, 90.0 percent, 3 Stud G), Adrian Peterson (11-for-14, 78.6 percent, 4 Stud G), Ryan Mathews (5-for-7, 71.4 percent, 1 Stud G).

Other wide receiver matchup-busters: Brandon Marshall (9-for-13, 69.2 percent, 1 Stud G), Roddy White (9-for-14, 64.3 percent, 1 Stud G), Steve Johnson (9-for-15, 60.0 percent), A.J. Green (7-for-13, 53.8 percent).

Other tight end matchup-busters: Jason Witten (9-for-17, 52.9 percent, 3 Stud G), Owen Daniels (3-for-6, 50.0 percent), Brent Celek (5-for-11, 45.5 percent).
[h=3]Consistency Ratings chart[/h]
Players are initially ranked in order of their Consistency Rating, calculated as the percentage of the player's scheduled games -- not games played, scheduled games -- in which his fantasy point total registered a Start score. All categories are sortable both ascending and descending; just click on the headers to sort.

Players must have at least a 25 percent Consistency Rating in either standard scoring or PPR leagues for inclusion in the chart. All defense/special teams are included, regardless of whether they met those minimums.

These statistics are for 2013 only. Statistics for games since 2010 can be found here.

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Player<CENTER>Team</CENTER><CENTER>%</CENTER><CENTER>Pos</CENTER><CENTER>G</CENTER><CENTER>Start</CENTER><CENTER>Stud</CENTER><CENTER>Stiff</CENTER><CENTER>Sat</CENTER><CENTER>PPR%</CENTER>
Jamaal CharlesKC100.0%RB101040090.0%
LeSean McCoyPhi90.9%RB111040081.8%
Matt ForteChi90.0%RB10940090.0%
Alfred MorrisWsh90.0%RB10900080.0%
Peyton ManningDen80.0%QB10840080.0%
Drew BreesNO80.0%QB10840080.0%
Matthew StaffordDet80.0%QB10810080.0%
Eddie LacyGB80.0%RB9811180.0%
Julius ThomasDen80.0%TE10831070.0%
Frank GoreSF80.0%RB10820070.0%
Adrian PetersonMin80.0%RB10840070.0%
Knowshon MorenoDen80.0%RB10840070.0%
Fred JacksonBuf72.7%RB11810072.7%
Marshawn LynchSea72.7%RB11840072.7%
Wes WelkerDen70.0%WR10701080.0%
Jordan CameronCle70.0%TE10713070.0%
49ers D/STSF70.0%D/ST10712070.0%
Panthers D/STCar70.0%D/ST10731070.0%
Jordy NelsonGB70.0%WR10710070.0%
Demaryius ThomasDen70.0%WR10730070.0%
Calvin JohnsonDet70.0%WR9742170.0%
Antonio BrownPit70.0%WR10720070.0%
Brandon MarshallChi70.0%WR10720060.0%
Chris JohnsonTen70.0%RB10710060.0%
A.J. GreenCin63.6%WR11722063.6%
Seahawks D/STSea63.6%D/ST11710063.6%
Russell WilsonSea63.6%QB11702063.6%
Bengals D/STCin63.6%D/ST11722063.6%
Jimmy GrahamNO60.0%TE10652070.0%
Reggie BushDet60.0%RB9630170.0%
DeMarco MurrayDal60.0%RB8610270.0%
Antonio GatesSD60.0%TE10602070.0%
Andre JohnsonHou60.0%WR10612070.0%
Chiefs D/STKC60.0%D/ST10631060.0%
Stephen GostkowskiNE60.0%K10631060.0%
Garrett HartleyNO60.0%K10601060.0%
Andrew LuckInd60.0%QB10611060.0%
Robbie GouldChi60.0%K10601060.0%
Maurice Jones-DrewJac60.0%RB10600060.0%
Alshon JefferyChi60.0%WR10623060.0%
Le'Veon BellPit60.0%RB7600360.0%
DeAngelo WilliamsCar60.0%RB10600050.0%
Dez BryantDal60.0%WR10632050.0%
Ryan MathewsSD60.0%RB10611050.0%
Zac StacyStL60.0%RB8612240.0%
Giovani BernardCin54.5%RB11610072.7%
DeSean JacksonPhi54.5%WR11622063.6%
Steven HauschkaSea54.5%K11611054.5%
Danny WoodheadSD50.0%RB10511080.0%
Pierre ThomasNO50.0%RB10520070.0%
Torrey SmithBal50.0%WR10511060.0%
Julio JonesAtl50.0%WR5510550.0%
Arian FosterHou50.0%RB8511250.0%
Darren McFaddenOak50.0%RB7511350.0%
Aaron RodgersGB50.0%QB8512250.0%
Matt PraterDen50.0%K10512050.0%
Nick FolkNYJ50.0%K10513050.0%
Justin TuckerBal50.0%K10512050.0%
Cowboys D/STDal50.0%D/ST10514050.0%
Tony RomoDal50.0%QB10511050.0%
Dan BaileyDal50.0%K10524050.0%
Rams D/STStL50.0%D/ST10524050.0%
Charles ClayMia50.0%RB10510050.0%
Victor CruzNYG50.0%WR10521050.0%
Larry FitzgeraldAri50.0%WR10513050.0%
Bears D/STChi50.0%D/ST10504050.0%
Coby FleenerInd50.0%TE10504050.0%
Josh GordonCle50.0%WR8511250.0%
Browns D/STCle50.0%D/ST10502050.0%
Shaun SuishamPit50.0%K10523050.0%
Cardinals D/STAri50.0%D/ST10512050.0%
Greg OlsenCar50.0%TE10502050.0%
Vernon DavisSF50.0%TE9522140.0%
Denarius MooreOak50.0%WR10501040.0%
Stevan RidleyNE50.0%RB9510140.0%
Terrance WilliamsDal50.0%WR10513030.0%
Rueben RandleNYG50.0%WR10514030.0%
Dan CarpenterBuf45.5%K11512045.5%
Pierre GarconWsh40.0%WR10410050.0%
Joique BellDet40.0%RB10420050.0%
Doug MartinTB40.0%RB6400440.0%
Matt RyanAtl40.0%QB10401040.0%
Philip RiversSD40.0%QB10401040.0%
Mason CrosbyGB40.0%K10423040.0%
Andre EllingtonAri40.0%RB10412040.0%
Titans D/STTen40.0%D/ST10412040.0%
Eddie RoyalSD40.0%WR10414040.0%
Lamar MillerMia40.0%RB10403040.0%
Kyle RudolphMin40.0%TE8404240.0%
Mike TolbertCar40.0%RB10403040.0%
Ryan SuccopKC40.0%K10405040.0%
Patriots D/STNE40.0%D/ST10401040.0%
Raiders D/STOak40.0%D/ST10402040.0%
Jay FeelyAri40.0%K10412040.0%
T.Y. HiltonInd40.0%WR10423040.0%
Jason WittenDal40.0%TE10414040.0%
Vincent JacksonTB40.0%WR10434040.0%
Nick NovakSD40.0%K10424040.0%
Adam VinatieriInd40.0%K9431140.0%
Saints D/STNO40.0%D/ST10401040.0%
Alex SmithKC40.0%QB10403040.0%
Robert Griffin IIIWsh40.0%QB10412040.0%
Jarrett BoykinGB40.0%WR10405040.0%
Giants D/STNYG40.0%D/ST10415040.0%
Rashad JenningsOak40.0%RB10424040.0%
Cam NewtonCar40.0%QB10433040.0%
Jermichael FinleyGB40.0%TE6412430.0%
Martellus BennettChi40.0%TE10412030.0%
Daniel ThomasMia40.0%RB10403030.0%
Rashard MendenhallAri40.0%RB9401130.0%
Ben TateHou40.0%RB10401030.0%
Harry DouglasAtl40.0%WR10424030.0%
Marlon BrownBal40.0%WR8403220.0%
Jerricho CotcheryPit40.0%WR10412020.0%
Golden TateSea36.4%WR11415036.4%
Bills D/STBuf36.4%D/ST11423036.4%
Mike NugentCin36.4%K11403036.4%
Nick FolesPhi36.4%QB8423336.4%
Doug BaldwinSea36.4%WR11403036.4%
Marvin JonesCin36.4%WR11416027.3%
Jacquizz RodgersAtl30.0%RB10322050.0%
Ray RiceBal30.0%RB9312150.0%
Reggie WayneInd30.0%WR7301340.0%
Eric DeckerDen30.0%WR10321040.0%
Steve SmithCar30.0%WR10301040.0%
Bilal PowellNYJ30.0%RB10301040.0%
Brandon BoldenNE30.0%RB7302340.0%
Darren SprolesNO30.0%RB10322040.0%
Jordan ReedWsh30.0%TE9312140.0%
Tony GonzalezAtl30.0%TE10312040.0%
Kendall WrightTen30.0%WR10301040.0%
Dwayne BoweKC30.0%WR10304040.0%
Donald BrownInd30.0%RB10312040.0%
Delanie WalkerTen30.0%TE10313040.0%
Brandon LaFellCar30.0%WR10304040.0%
Randall CobbGB30.0%WR5300530.0%
Jason SnellingAtl30.0%RB8312230.0%
Jay CutlerChi30.0%QB8302230.0%
Matt SchaubHou30.0%QB7304330.0%
Colts D/STInd30.0%D/ST10314030.0%
Trent RichardsonInd30.0%RB10300030.0%
Jake LockerTen30.0%QB7302330.0%
Ted GinnCar30.0%WR10305030.0%
Packers D/STGB30.0%D/ST10314030.0%
David AkersDet30.0%K10314030.0%
Lions D/STDet30.0%D/ST10304030.0%
Broncos D/STDen30.0%D/ST10312030.0%
Colin KaepernickSF30.0%QB10313030.0%
Josh BrownNYG30.0%K10314030.0%
Mike WallaceMia30.0%WR10305030.0%
Dolphins D/STMia30.0%D/ST10312030.0%
Sebastian JanikowskiOak30.0%K10306030.0%
Graham GanoCar30.0%K10314030.0%
Ravens D/STBal30.0%D/ST10312030.0%
Keenan AllenSD30.0%WR9302130.0%
Chargers D/STSD30.0%D/ST10304030.0%
Emmanuel SandersPit30.0%WR10303030.0%
James StarksGB30.0%RB7313330.0%
Timothy WrightTB30.0%WR10307030.0%
Kenbrell ThompkinsNE30.0%WR9305130.0%
Geno SmithNYJ30.0%QB10306030.0%
Blair WalshMin30.0%K10303030.0%
Marques ColstonNO30.0%WR9303130.0%
Steelers D/STPit30.0%D/ST10304030.0%
Kenny StillsNO30.0%WR10315030.0%
Phil DawsonSF30.0%K10313030.0%
Sam BradfordStL30.0%QB7301330.0%
Greg ZuerleinStL30.0%K10313030.0%
Buccaneers D/STTB30.0%D/ST10302030.0%
Rian LindellTB30.0%K10303030.0%
Anquan BoldinSF30.0%WR10314030.0%
Rod StreaterOak30.0%WR10304030.0%
Texans D/STHou30.0%D/ST10302030.0%
Chris OgbonnayaCle30.0%RB10302030.0%
Chris IvoryNYJ30.0%RB9303130.0%
Rob GronkowskiNE30.0%TE4310630.0%
James JonesGB30.0%WR8303220.0%
Aaron DobsonNE30.0%WR9313120.0%
Dallas ClarkBal30.0%TE10305020.0%
Garrett GrahamHou30.0%TE10315020.0%
Michael FloydAri30.0%WR10312020.0%
Riley CooperPhi27.3%WR11336036.4%
Steve JohnsonBuf27.3%WR9302227.3%
Scott ChandlerBuf27.3%TE11307027.3%
Andy DaltonCin27.3%QB11325027.3%
C.J. SpillerBuf27.3%RB10302127.3%
Alex HeneryPhi27.3%K11314027.3%
Marquise GoodwinBuf27.3%WR7303427.3%
BenJarvus Green-EllisCin27.3%RB11301018.2%
Brent CelekPhi27.3%TE11307018.2%
Jermaine KearseSea27.3%WR1130709.1%
Cecil ShortsJac20.0%WR10203050.0%
Roy HeluWsh20.0%RB10212030.0%
DeAndre HopkinsHou20.0%WR10204030.0%
Julian EdelmanNE20.0%WR10206030.0%
Jared CookStL20.0%TE10215030.0%
Vikings D/STMin20.0%D/ST10215020.0%
Redskins D/STWsh20.0%D/ST10213020.0%
Jets D/STNYJ20.0%D/ST10203020.0%
Eagles D/STPhi18.2%D/ST11204018.2%
Heath MillerPit10.0%TE8103230.0%
Falcons D/STAtl10.0%D/ST10105010.0%
Jaguars D/STJac10.0%D/ST10107010.0%

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hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
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Messages
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Tokens
Week 12 ranks: Trust Rashad Jennings

By Eric Karabell | ESPN.com

It was around this time a year ago that fantasy owners were officially tired of running back Rashad Jennings. Then the starter for the Jacksonville Jaguars, Jennings replaced an injured Maurice Jones-Drew, but he did little with his opportunity despite getting enough touches and having decent matchups to succeed. Then Jennings' season ended because of a shoulder problem and most fantasy owners were happy to forget his name. Well, that guy is my No. 11 running back in the Week 12 rankings, one spot behind Tennessee Titans star Chris Johnson, whose team travels to the Bay Area to face Jennings' Oakland Raiders.

If it sounds strange that Jennings could go from irrelevant to nearly an RB1 so quickly, well, you haven't been paying attention to the strange running back position this wacky season. Quarterback and wide receiver performance has been fairly predictable. Sure, there's the occasional shocker, the unsung youngster becoming reliable (Mike Glennon, Alshon Jeffery) and the safe veteran becoming unreliable (Eli Manning, Mike Wallace), but at running back, half of the original top 10 tortured fantasy owners, and new names -- or old names resurfacing -- became impact plays in minutes. Guys like Jennings, Zac Stacy, Andre Brown, Ben Tate and Bobby Rainey have become instant stars. Just look at the rankings! Rainey is our No. 21 running back, and two weeks ago he was unranked.

These guys are saving fantasy owners. Jennings, for all his underachieving in Jacksonville, has provided a pair of 20-plus-point (standard scoring) fantasy efforts this month. Johnson and the Seattle Seahawks' Marshawn Lynch are the only other running backs to do this in November. So if you're wondering how Rashad Jennings nearly made my top 10, well, that's how!

With the way the annoying running back position has gone this season, perhaps this sets us all up for Jennings to rush 13 times for 6 yards, like C.J. Spiller did in Week 11, or worse yet, to simply lose the touches to Darren McFadden, the brittle starter whose balky hamstring opened this opportunity for Jennings, an overlooked free-agent signing, in the first place. Wait, McFadden's hurt? No way! Yes, it's true, as shocking as that seems. And McFadden's history of returning slowly from injuries is well established. Raiders coach Dennis Allen told reporters Monday that Jennings "has earned the right to carry the ball … he's going to get his touches," which is awesome, but we should be conditioned by now to never believe a coach. Suuuuuure, and Andre Brown will be worked back in slowly. Regardless, I don't see McFadden playing this week, and Jennings, who has totaled 176, 107 and 148 yards the past three weeks, gets to face a Titans defense that allows nearly 20 points per game to opposing running backs, fifth-most in the NFL, and has permitted two touchdowns to running backs in each of the past five games! What could go wrong?

Well, in the name of Andre Ellington, Brian Leonard, Steven Jackson, Lamar Miller and, of course, Trent Richardson, let's not answer that last question. Things go awry constantly. But based on the information we do know, Rashad Jennings, one of the most added players over the past seven days but still available in a good 40 percent of standard leagues, is a very nice play this week. Believe it!

Quarterback: I liked the way Raiders quarterback and Penn State product Matt McGloin played in his starting debut, but the Titans are far more difficult to throw against. If McGloin keeps the job over Terrelle Pryor, I could see the occasional top-20 ranking for him in future weeks. Just not in Week 12. … I keep sounding the bell for Tampa Bay Buccaneers rookie Glennon, the guy with five 15-point fantasy performances in six weeks -- has your starting QB done this? -- and he reaches top-10 status for me this week as he heads to Detroit. The Lions can be thrown on, in case you haven't noticed. Vincent Jackson has to be licking his proverbial chops. … Drew Brees over Peyton Manning this week? Oh, Brees plays the Falcons. Ah, makes sense! I'd probably start Shane Falco against the Falcons. … I'm not off the Colin Kaepernick bandwagon, but the Redskins aren't the defensive sieve they were two months ago (when they faced a healthy Michael Vick, Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford). I just like 10 other quarterbacks better than Kaepernick. … If Case Keenum was playing at Seattle, he wouldn't be my No. 13 QB. It's Jacksonville. And with the backlash on Keenum being yanked for Matt Schaub, I doubt that happens again. … Sorry, but I cannot trust the erratic Carson Palmer like my colleagues are. Don't we have sufficient evidence of his inconsistency?

Running back: You bet I'm hedging just a bit on the great Adrian Peterson and his groin injury that he claims has him at 65 percent. Of course, given his immense upside, I still had to rank him third. But I could see him sitting out half the game again when Scott Tolzien blows up the Vikings' sorry defense. By the way, I ranked Toby Gerhart, just in case, but if it's clear that Peterson is fine by Friday, I'll remove him. … Zac Stacy is our No. 6 running back. Could you have imagined that in September? … I'm sticking with Reggie Bush. He's obviously very sorry he fumbled the ball, but the Lions did nothing in the second half with him benched. He's still a top-10 RB to me. … The Ravens can be run on, Chris Ivory can run, and it's clear he's the lead ball carrier now. Bilal Powell better not get 25 touches! … Shane Vereen is essentially in a platoon with LeGarrette Blount. Vereen catches the ball, Blount runs it. But Stevan Ridley is safe. I think. … Is Steven Jackson a top-30 running back? How can he be considered one, given his body of work this season? Give me the emerging Chris Ogbonnaya instead.

Wide receiver: There's so much depth here that it's tough to suddenly exalt an ordinary option over safe ones. The top 20 is typical. I like Harry Douglas, Jarrett Boykin, James Jones and Hakeem Nicks more than most. Tolzien, all jokes aside, has been fine throwing the football, but the Vikings haven't been fine defending it. And no, I don't think Roddy White is better than Douglas. As for Nicks, watch the Cowboys and Giants put up 30-plus points against each other. … Dwayne Bowe as a potential flex? Well, the matchup against the Chargers is kind. But I'm hesitant to consider him a flex option. … Nate Burleson and Miles Austin are both expected to play this week. Of course, I ranked them 49th and 50th, respectively. Let's just say you shouldn't tear up your roster to get them active.
 

hacheman@therx.com
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[h=1]Fantasy hints from next-level data[/h][h=3]More strength of schedule tidbits for the remaining weeks of the season[/h]By Ken Daube | Special to ESPN.com

Last week, this column offered rankings for each fantasy football offensive position, by team, based on strength of fantasy schedule (SOFS) remaining.
This week, we'll take it a step further and give a breakdown for Weeks 12 to 13 -- which encompasses the remainder of most regular seasons -- as well as breakdowns for Weeks 14 to 17 and 14 to 16, as they represent the periods for most fantasy playoffs. This information is most useful as a tiebreaker when evaluating last-minute trade, lineup or waiver decisions.
The number in each column represents the average fantasy points being allowed by that team's opponents to each respective position group in the relevant weeks.


<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Quarterback Strength of Fantasy Schedule[/h]
TeamWeeks 12 - 13Weeks 14 - 17Weeks 14 - 16
Chicago Bears17.118.118.3
Philadelphia Eagles15.018.016.9
Kansas City Chiefs18.217.717.3
Detroit Lions17.917.216.4
Dallas Cowboys16.517.016.6
Green Bay Packers18.417.018.1
Washington Redskins13.916.917.4
Tennessee Titans16.716.817.5
Oakland Raiders16.716.616.3
Buffalo Bills18.416.416.7
Cincinnati Bengals18.916.416.6
Baltimore Ravens16.016.317.4
Houston Texans17.716.317.7
New York Giants20.016.115.3
Minnesota Vikings15.716.015.6
Denver Broncos14.015.815.2
San Diego Chargers12.815.816.8
Miami Dolphins13.215.615.0
San Francisco 49ers16.415.415.5
Cleveland Browns17.315.315.5
Indianapolis Colts13.515.113.4
Carolina Panthers15.114.613.3
New England Patriots16.114.614.5
Pittsburgh Steelers15.714.614.2
Atlanta Falcons13.114.416.2
Jacksonville Jaguars15.114.313.9
Seattle Seahawks11.214.314.2
New York Jets14.013.614.0
St. Louis Rams13.113.614.8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers13.013.213.9
New Orleans Saints14.212.610.7
Arizona Cardinals16.812.112.0

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<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]Running Back Strength of Fantasy Schedule[/h]
TeamWeeks 12 - 13Weeks 14 - 17Weeks 14 - 16
Green Bay Packers17.119.619.6
Philadelphia Eagles10.419.017.8
Dallas Cowboys13.918.118.8
Arizona Cardinals14.917.618.0
Houston Texans17.117.416.6
Buffalo Bills18.217.117.7
Chicago Bears20.417.117.8
Washington Redskins14.816.817.9
Atlanta Falcons13.916.517.8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers13.516.216.7
Kansas City Chiefs15.416.116.8
Cleveland Browns18.815.915.1
New York Giants22.315.913.8
Cincinnati Bengals13.815.817.3
Denver Broncos14.215.716.1
New York Jets16.015.714.1
Pittsburgh Steelers13.215.715.9
Baltimore Ravens14.715.316.4
Jacksonville Jaguars15.015.315.8
Tennessee Titans14.215.315.5
Seattle Seahawks14.715.213.3
Detroit Lions14.215.113.5
New England Patriots15.815.015.7
New Orleans Saints15.714.915.3
Indianapolis Colts15.114.813.3
Carolina Panthers17.114.713.5
San Diego Chargers12.714.514.9
Miami Dolphins11.814.415.5
Oakland Raiders21.113.812.7
San Francisco 49ers21.613.814.9
Minnesota Vikings17.113.413.0
St. Louis Rams17.812.912.8

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<!-- begin inline 3 -->[h=4]Wide Receiver Strength of Fantasy Schedule[/h]
TeamWeeks 12 - 13Weeks 14 - 17Weeks 14 - 16
Kansas City Chiefs24.024.524.3
Minnesota Vikings22.224.523.1
Dallas Cowboys22.024.422.9
Philadelphia Eagles16.723.924.1
Detroit Lions23.023.623.7
Chicago Bears22.323.222.8
New York Giants23.823.122.7
Oakland Raiders17.622.922.9
Baltimore Ravens21.222.624.1
Miami Dolphins18.622.622.0
Cincinnati Bengals25.022.021.9
Washington Redskins18.121.922.5
Green Bay Packers26.021.722.1
San Diego Chargers18.721.622.3
Carolina Panthers17.920.819.4
Cleveland Browns19.820.821.6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers20.820.521.7
Houston Texans20.920.222.9
Jacksonville Jaguars16.620.118.7
New England Patriots19.920.017.5
San Francisco 49ers22.819.620.5
Atlanta Falcons22.219.521.6
Denver Broncos19.819.517.9
Tennessee Titans24.219.520.4
Buffalo Bills25.119.419.0
Indianapolis Colts14.418.918.0
Seattle Seahawks16.918.517.6
Pittsburgh Steelers19.418.118.7
St. Louis Rams18.417.518.5
New Orleans Saints19.817.215.7
New York Jets18.116.817.8
Arizona Cardinals26.616.015.9

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<!-- begin inline 4 -->[h=4]Tight End Strength of Fantasy Schedule[/h]
TeamWeeks 12 - 13Weeks 14 - 17Weeks 14 - 16
Tennessee Titans6.910.411.3
Houston Texans8.68.88.8
Buffalo Bills6.88.59.2
San Francisco 49ers6.48.56.6
Philadelphia Eagles14.08.48.0
St. Louis Rams6.78.28.9
New York Jets8.88.07.3
Denver Broncos5.17.98.1
Seattle Seahawks5.77.88.9
Cincinnati Bengals7.77.77.7
New England Patriots8.57.78.4
Pittsburgh Steelers7.77.77.8
Detroit Lions7.47.66.7
Green Bay Packers8.17.67.5
Chicago Bears7.27.57.4
Cleveland Browns8.57.57.9
Kansas City Chiefs8.57.57.4
Oakland Raiders9.17.46.8
Dallas Cowboys7.47.38.0
Atlanta Falcons5.67.27.2
Jacksonville Jaguars7.77.27.4
Baltimore Ravens7.87.17.6
New York Giants9.07.16.6
Indianapolis Colts11.46.95.7
Miami Dolphins8.16.96.2
San Diego Chargers4.76.98.0
Carolina Panthers8.56.86.8
Washington Redskins6.46.86.6
New Orleans Saints6.46.36.1
Arizona Cardinals5.86.16.3
Minnesota Vikings7.86.16.2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers6.55.25.0

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[h=3]On target[/h]
Receiving yardage is the most variable form of yardage, which makes sense because so much of it is dependent on where the quarterback elects to throw the ball. Because of this, variations in the number of times a player is targeted by his quarterback can greatly change a player's value. So while your receiver may have scored 10 fantasy points this weekend, you need to know whether it's reasonable to expect that he can repeat that type of performance on a routine basis. If a receiver had one target that he turned into a 40-yard touchdown, you need to realize that he was one quarterback decision away from posting a goose egg. Conversely, if your wideout had 12 targets and finished with 108 yards receiving, his prospects for consistent fantasy production are significantly greater.
Below, you'll see all of the players who are averaging eight or more targets in their past four games, and how many of those targets were on plays that began in the red zone during Week 11.
Note: Targets are not an official NFL statistic. Based on the methodology that stat services use, the number of targets listed may be different than target values listed elsewhere. ESPN Stats & Information's philosophy is to count a target when the analyst thinks the pass was actually intended for the player. Therefore, if a quarterback is obviously throwing a ball away, the analyst will not record a target for that pass. This gives a truer representation of what a target is -- a pass thrown to a particular player, with the intent for that player to catch the ball -- and therefore should be more helpful to the fantasy community.

[h=3]Fantasy insights based on data through Week 11[/h]

<!-- begin inline 5 -->[h=4]Week 11 Targets Report[/h]
PlayerTargets*RZ
Calvin Johnson15.34
Andre Johnson12.73
Alshon Jeffery12.01
Brandon Marshall11.72
D. Thomas11.30
Antonio Brown11.31
A.J. Green11.30
Shane Vereen11.00
Pierre Garcon10.80
Harry Douglas10.30
Victor Cruz10.01
Justin Blackmon10.00
Torrey Smith9.72
Josh Gordon9.73
T.Y. Hilton9.32
Steve Johnson9.30
Dwayne Bowe9.32
Vincent Jackson9.02
Wes Welker8.71
Kendall Wright8.70
Jordy Nelson8.50
Coby Fleener8.30
Juron Criner8.00
* Target data presented here is average number of targets through the past four games

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• Shane Vereen is obviously the reason the New England Patriots didn't make a stronger attempt to re-sign Danny Woodhead. Vereen has played only two games this season, but he has racked up 21 targets in those two contests. Look for Vereen to be a valuable flex play, especially in PPR leagues, through the end of the season.

• Juron Criner and Justin Blackmon will be dropping off the targets list in the next column. Neither is fantasy relevant. Blackmon is done for the year because of a suspension, and Criner is dealing with a serious shoulder injury.

• You might think the 17 targets that Andre Johnson received Sunday were related to the change at quarterback made during the game. That isn't the case. Johnson was targeted on nine of Matt Schaub's 25 attempts and eight times by Case Keenum, who threw 24 passes. The identity of the man slinging the pigskin won't affect Johnson's value.

• The Indianapolis Colts' top three receiving options this season -- Reggie Wayne, T.Y. Hilton and Coby Fleener -- have combined for just 94 yards after contact. To put that into perspective, 13 players have more by themselves, led by Calvin Johnson's 178 yards after contact. Can you imagine how good Andrew Luck would be if his top options fought for additional yardage?

• Matt Forte leads all running backs in terms of fantasy points per game scored since Week 7. The two running backs that are second and third might surprise you: Rashad Jennings and Chris Johnson. Earlier in the year, I thought Johnson was pretty much done. His recent performance has forced me to reevaluate that conclusion.

• How good is Calvin Johnson? The second-highest scoring wide receiver, Demaryius Thomas, has played one more game than Johnson, yet Johnson has outscored him by 24 fantasy points. It would require almost two more full games of average production from Thomas to catch Johnson. That means that Johnson is essentially three games better than the next best wide receiver. If you are looking for a fantasy MVP, Johnson's differential from other wide receivers establishes him as one of the front-runners.

[h=3]Big plays and up close[/h]
There were eight NFL players who totaled three or more rushes that gained 10 or more yards each. They were: Bobby Rainey (5), Ben Tate (4), Ray Rice (3), Forte (3), LeSean McCoy (3), Donald Brown (3), Cam Newton (3) and Andre Brown (3).

Meanwhile, there were seven players with at least two carries from their opponent's 5-yard line or closer. They were: Rice (4), Marshawn Lynch (4), Maurice Jones-Drew (2), McCoy (2), Le'Veon Bell (2), Jamaal Charles (2) and Chris Ivory (2). Of this group, only Bell and Charles failed to score on at least one of these attempts.

While Rainey did not make the second group of players listed above, that's solely because the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ran the ball only once from inside the 5. Rainey got that carry and converted it for a 3-yard touchdown. While you might attribute a great deal of Rainey's performance to his playing against the Atlanta Falcons, that would be an oversimplification. Coming into the game, the Falcons gave up just half a fantasy point more per game to opposing running backs than the league average, so it's not as if it was an amazing matchup.

Don't be too discouraged by Andre Brown's single-digit production against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday. Brown still has the third-friendliest schedule for running backs remaining. If Brown's owner in your league is wavering on him, take advantage of that mistake.

Donald Brown is clearly the back to own in the Indianapolis Colts backfield, and it's simply because he's much quicker to the hole than Trent Richardson. Want proof? Brown has gained just 40.6 percent of his rushing yardage after contact (which is 31st among those with at least 50 rush attempts), while Richardson gains 51.4 percent of his yards after contact. That might make you think that Brown is easier to bring down, but the fact is that he outgains Richardson by almost a full yard per carry after contact (2.38 to 1.53).

Ray Rice's season has been defined by a complete lack of burst, but Rice appeared to reverse that with four rushes of 10 yards or more in Week 11. Don't think too much of it. Rice has only nine such rushes this year, which places him on pace for 14 for the entire season. His previous low in this metric was 23 in 2010, so even the resurgence this past week shouldn't be enough to lead anyone to believe that he has turned a corner.

[h=3]Red zone play-calling chart[/h]
Below is a listing of the percentage of run/pass plays each team has executed this season in the red zone. Pass plays are defined as any play in which the quarterback attempted a pass or was sacked, and all other plays are deemed as a rush.


<!-- begin inline 6 -->[h=4]Red Zone Play-Calling Chart[/h]
TeamSnapsPassRush
Denver Broncos11557%43%
New England Patriots11243%57%
Green Bay Packers10554%46%
San Diego Chargers10161%39%
Pittsburgh Steelers10165%35%
Atlanta Falcons10167%33%
Detroit Lions9663%38%
Chicago Bears9561%39%
St. Louis Rams9456%44%
Seattle Seahawks9441%59%
Buffalo Bills9435%65%
Kansas City Chiefs9349%51%
New Orleans Saints9058%42%
Cleveland Browns8962%38%
Baltimore Ravens8954%46%
Washington Redskins8755%45%
Philadelphia Eagles8752%48%
Carolina Panthers8737%63%
San Francisco 49ers8333%67%
Indianapolis Colts8260%40%
Tennessee Titans8142%58%
Jacksonville Jaguars7967%33%
Houston Texans7858%42%
Cincinnati Bengals7860%40%
Miami Dolphins7158%42%
New York Giants7060%40%
Minnesota Vikings7049%51%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers6965%35%
Oakland Raiders6846%54%
Dallas Cowboys6862%38%
Arizona Cardinals6463%38%
New York Jets6149%51%

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hacheman@therx.com
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[h=1]Best, worst Week 12 matchups[/h][h=3]Look to start Case Keenum, Andre Brown; avoid Philip Rivers, Ray Rice[/h]By Scott Kacsmar | Football Outsiders

If you are still looking to make one big trade before the deadline, or just want to have some general knowledge of the remaining weeks to prepare for the playoffs, below is a chart that outlines the easiest and toughest remaining schedules for Weeks 12-16.
Quite a bit has changed from when we looked at this in Week 9, but the eight toughest run schedules are still very similar and the Packers still have the easiest pass schedule, which is why I have a logical suggestion this week for replacing Aaron Rodgers. Case Keenum (Houston has the third-easiest pass schedule) probably still works out too, but Gary Kubiak needs to keep him in the game.

<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Easiest and toughest schedules based on Football Outsiders' DVOA, Weeks 12-16[/h]
Eight Easiest PassEight Toughest PassEight Easiest RunEight Toughest Run
GBSEACINPHI
CINSTLATLNO
HOUINDHOUDET
KCCARBUFTB
BUFSDOAKBAL
BALNODENSD
CHITBKCMIA
NYGNYJNYGMIN

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<!-- end inline 1 -->The teams that really stand out here are the Bengals, Bills and Giants. They are set to play defenses that are by and large poor on both sides of the ball. So if you want to trade for a top-tier receiver like A.J. Green or Victor Cruz -- or snatch up Andre Brown or Marquise Goodwin -- then here's some support for that.
Cincinnati especially gets a favorable outlook with the Chargers, Colts, Steelers and Vikings. Andy Dalton has looked awful in recent weeks, but he still has 21 touchdown passes in 11 games and a bye week to iron out the mistakes.
The offense to sour on could be in San Diego. Philip Rivers has fallen off after his hot start, Danny Woodhead and Ryan Mathews have been frustrating fantasy starts and rookie Keenan Allen may hit a wall with tougher defenses on the horizon.
Things change quickly in the NFL, but here are the best and worst fantasy matchups for Week 12:
(Note: References to defensive rankings for the pass and run are based on Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, explained here).

[h=3]Quarterbacks[/h]
Alex Smith (plus-4 points)

<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]Players With Favorable Matchups[/h]
PosTeamName+/- Fan Pts
QBHOUCase Keenum+5
QBKCAlex Smith+4
QBTBMike Glennon+3
QBGBScott Tolzien+3
RBNYGAndre Brown+3
RBSFFrank Gore+3
RBCARDeAngelo Williams+2
RBNYGBrandon Jacobs+2
RBHOUBen Tate+1
QBNETom Brady+1
RBNOPierre Thomas+1
RBTBBobby Rainey+1
QBSFColin Kaepernick+1
RBSDDanny Woodhead+1
RBSDRyan Mathews+1
RBARIAndre Ellington+1
RBOAKRashad Jennings+1
WRNOMarques Colston+1
WRHOUDeAndre Hopkins+1
TEINDCoby Fleener+1
WRKCDwayne Bowe+1
RBNODarren Sproles+1
WRCLEJosh Gordon+1
RBARIRashard Mendenhall+1
TESFVernon Davis+1
TECLEJordan Cameron+1

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<!-- end inline 2 -->He was not as good as NBC's Cris Collinsworth gushed in Sunday night's broadcast, but Smith did produce 22 fantasy points thanks in part to 52 rushing yards. Now Smith gets a home game against San Diego's 30th-ranked pass defense, which allows the fourth most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Andy Reid's offense has faced a lot of criticism this season, but this is the worst defense it will face at home all season.
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Scott Tolzien (plus-3 points)
Still looking to replace Rodgers? How about his real-life replacement? Tolzien had three interceptions in Week 11 against the Giants, but otherwise he completed a high rate of his passes for 339 yards (after 280 yards off the bench the previous week). This talented offense is still moving the ball, but he hasn't finished with enough touchdowns. That should change this week as the Vikings (No. 28 against the pass) come to Green Bay having allowed 23 touchdown passes and a cumulative 100.4 passer rating. Tolzien should have his best game yet.
Philip Rivers (minus-5 points)
As we cautioned with Peyton Manning last week, you have to lower your expectations for Rivers going into Arrowhead against what is still a quality Kansas City defense. After a hot start, Rivers has really cooled down, never topping more than 18 fantasy points in his past six games. If the Chiefs can relocate their pass rush, Rivers may be in for a poor game.
[h=3]Running backs[/h]
Andre Brown (plus-3 points)
The Giants had to find a running game eventually. Brown's been the workhorse the past two weeks, and now he will face a Dallas defense at home that made the Saints look like a rushing juggernaut. Dallas is 28th against the run and has allowed six running backs to rush for at least 80 yards and score a touchdown.
Rashad Jennings (plus-1 point)
He's really taken over for Darren McFadden in Oakland, posting three consecutive games of at least 88 rushing yards. The Titans rank 26th against the run and could not even stop Donald Brown, so this could be a great day for Jennings.

<!-- begin inline 3 -->[h=4]Players With Unfavorable Matchups[/h]
PosTeamName+/- Fan Pts
QBSDPhilip Rivers-5
QBATLMatt Ryan-4
QBINDAndrew Luck-4
RBDALDeMarco Murray-2
RBBALRay Rice-2
QBWASRobert Griffin III-2
RBINDDonald Brown-2
QBCARCam Newton-2
RBMIALamar Miller-1
RBINDTrent Richardson-1
RBNEShane Vereen-1
QBMIARyan Tannehill-1
RBNYJChris Ivory-1
RBNEStevan Ridley-1
RBMIADaniel Thomas-1
RBDETJoique Bell-1
RBBALBernard Pierce-1
QBNYJGeno Smith-1
RBJACMaurice Jones-Drew-1
RBNELeGarrette Blount-1
RBTBBrian Leonard-1

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<!-- end inline 3 -->Donald Brown (minus-2 points)
Speaking of Brown, his 80 rushing yards and two touchdowns in Tennessee were quite unexpected. The Colts have been giving him more touches as Trent Richardson continues to struggle, but Arizona is a tough matchup. The Cardinals rank No. 2 against the run and have allowed only four rushing touchdowns and just 3.4 yards per carry. No defense allows fewer fantasy points to running backs. Brown has some favorable matchups later this season, but this is not his week.
[h=3]Wide receivers[/h]
Josh Gordon (plus-1 point)
He's not far from elite status and he's done it with three starting quarterbacks this season. Further, he has four games with at least 125 receiving yards and all nine of his career touchdowns have gone 20-plus yards. It takes only one play for him to have a productive fantasy output. The Steelers just allowed 179 yards and two touchdowns to Calvin Johnson, who abused Ike Taylor. Look for Cleveland to exploit some of these holes in the Pittsburgh secondary using its top weapon.
[h=3]Tight ends[/h]
Coby Fleener (plus-1 point)
He's coming off his career-best game with eight catches for 107 yards. You shouldn't expect those numbers again, but Fleener is the perfect security blanket for Andrew Luck in this matchup against Arizona's No. 4 pass defense. That's a lofty ranking, but no defense has allowed more fantasy points to tight ends than the Cardinals, including 11 touchdown receptions. Fleener should make it 12.
Vernon Davis (plus-1 point)
End your week with a San Francisco treat. Yes, this offense has struggled, but the Panthers and Saints, the 49ers' most recent opponents, have two of the best defenses in the NFL. The Redskins rank 24th against the pass and 27th against the run. Colin Kaepernick has had success against bad teams this season, and that's what the Redskins (3-7) are. Davis is the best option in this passing game and the Redskins allow the ninth most fantasy points to tight ends.
[h=3]Elite players[/h]
These are the elite fantasy players for Week 12 not listed in the above tables. You will want to start these players on a weekly basis regardless of their matchups. Andre Johnson and Rob Gronkowski are two familiar fantasy faces returning to the elite club.

<!-- begin inline 4 -->[h=4]Week 12 Projections for Elite Players[/h]
PosTeamNameProjPosTeamNameProj
QBNODrew Brees+5WRGBJordy Nelson+1
QBDENPeyton Manning0WRTBVincent Jackson+1
QBDETMatthew Stafford0WRDENEric Decker0
QBDALTony Romo-1WRDETCalvin Johnson0
RBKCJamaal Charles+4WRDENDemaryius Thomas0
RBMINAdrian Peterson+1WRDENWes Welker0
RBDENKnowshon Moreno0WRCHIBrandon Marshall0
RBGBEddie Lacy0WRINDT.Y. Hilton0
RBDETReggie Bush-2TENOJimmy Graham+1
RBCHIMatt Forte-2TENERob Gronkowski+1
WRHOUAndre Johnson+1TEDENJulius Thomas0

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<!-- end inline 4 -->No need to fear Drew Brees throwing five interceptions in Atlanta like he did last season. The Falcons are 31st against the pass and Brees has the highest projection of Week 12.
For the big matchup in New England, there is some caution for Denver's cast of skill players. Wes Welker suffered a concussion on Sunday -- so be sure to monitor his status, though it's hard to imagine he'd miss this game -- and Julius Thomas has a knee strain. If Aqib Talib is going to lock up with Demaryius Thomas, then Eric Decker could be your Denver stud this week.
At the very least, it shouldn't be Montee Ball stealing two touchdowns like he did in Week 11.
 

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[h=1]Players with best scoring chances[/h][h=3]Le'Veon Bell emerging as dual-threat RB with rising touchdown opportunities[/h]By Mike Clay | Pro Football Focus

With 11 weeks of the 2013 regular season in the books, it's time for our weekly look at our alternative to red zone data: opportunity-adjusted touchdowns (OTD).
If you're new to the stat, be sure to check out our introduction to rushing and receiving OTD. The OTD metric weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity.
Marshawn Lynch and Calvin Johnson continue to rack up scoring chances, but Week 11 is highlighted by a rookie tailback's usage as both a rusher and receiver.
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[h=3]Rushing[/h]

<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Rushing OTD Leaders After Week 11[/h]
RkRusherAttTD2013 OTDWk 11 OTD
1Marshawn Lynch20898.61.6
2Fred Jackson14167.40.1
3Jamaal Charles18666.71.0
4Willis McGahee10516.70.5
5Frank Gore17476.60.1
6Ray Rice14046.01.9
7Knowshon Moreno15085.70.4
8Le'Veon Bell11445.41.2
9Stevan Ridley13175.10.7
10BenJarvus Green-Ellis15634.60.1
11Eddie Lacy17254.50.4
12Matt Forte17574.50.3
13Adrian Peterson19494.00.1
14LeSean McCoy21354.01.1
15Mike Tolbert6544.00.1
16DeMarco Murray11143.80.0
17Maurice Jones-Drew15743.70.7
18Alfred Morris18153.70.1
19Reggie Bush14323.60.2
20Ben Tate12213.50.7
21Pierre Thomas10713.30.7
22Zac Stacy12933.30.0
23DeAngelo Williams13523.30.0
24Arian Foster12113.00.0
25Rashard Mendenhall11743.00.2
26Brandon Jacobs4942.90.6
27Daniel Thomas7432.90.8
28Jackie Battle3512.90.0
29Darren McFadden9332.90.0
30Danny Woodhead6412.80.1
31Rashad Jennings9212.80.4
32Bernard Pierce10322.70.1
33Brandon Bolden3822.70.0
34Montee Ball6832.70.7
35Joique Bell8152.60.4
36Jacquizz Rodgers7522.60.0
37Chris Ivory10622.40.8
38Michael Bush3512.40.0
39Chris Johnson16742.40.4
40LeGarrette Blount8022.30.2

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<!-- end inline 1 -->Ray Rice (6.0) paced all backs with a 1.9 OTD in Week 11. One of the bigger fantasy disappointments this season, Rice racked up four carries within 5 yards of the end zone on Sunday. He scored on one of two attempts from the 1-yard line. Now No. 6 overall in rushing OTD this year, Rice has been within 3 yards of the end zone on all three of his touchdowns. He's converted two of four tries from 1 yard out.
Only Rice had a higher rushing OTD than Marshawn Lynch (8.6) in Week 11. Fueled by a 1.6 mark, Lynch extended his season lead in the category to 1.2 over second-place Fred Jackson (7.4). On Sunday, Lynch scored on his only try from 1 yard out. He enjoyed four additional carries within 6 yards of the end zone, scoring on one. Lynch has been superb inside the 5-yard line this year, scoring on eight of 14 attempts (57 percent).
Since making his NFL debut in Week 4, only five running backs have a higher rushing OTD than Steelers rookie Le'Veon Bell (5.4). The rookie back has scored three times within 3 yards of the end zone and has one additional score from 8 yards out. Although Bell is just 1-of-4 on conversions from the opponent's 1-yard line, he's a healthy 2-of-5 on other carries within 4 yards of the end zone.
We touched on Bobby Rainey (1.6) last week, but no one saw a 32-touch, 167-yard, three-score day coming in Week 11. A quick look at his rushing OTD, however, shows that the rushing scores can be attributed more to flukiness than opportunity. Rainey did not have a carry within 2 yards of the end zone and had only two inside of 10 yards. His two rushing touchdowns came from distances of 3 and 43 yards. On a more promising note, Rainey did score on one try from the 1-yard line in Week 10, and is the team's clear goal-line back.
Knowshon Moreno (5.7) owners are panicking this week after Montee Ball (2.7) swiped a pair of goal-line touchdowns against the Chiefs. Rushing OTD suggests that you shouldn't be worried. Denver has a half dozen attempts from the 1-yard line this season, and Moreno has handled four of them. Even better, he's converted three times. Digging deeper, we see that Moreno has attempted 12 of the team's 20 carries within 5 yards of the end zone. Ball (five) and Ronnie Hillman (three) handled the others. Moreno sits No. 7 overall in rushing OTD this season and is the lead back on one of the best offenses in NFL history. He remains a top-10 fantasy running back.
Because backs have the best odds of scoring a touchdown when the line of scrimmage is the 1-yard line, it's always interesting to see which teams have tried the most runs in that scenario. The Patriots easily pace the NFL with 10 this season. The Giants, Ravens and Bills are next closest with seven each. On the other side of the coin, we have the Jets, Jaguars and Vikings with one carry each from 1 yard out. The NFL average is 4.1.
[h=3]Receiving[/h]
Note: Receiving OTD is based on the player's distance from the end zone when he is targeted -- not the line of scrimmage. This allows us to better weigh throws into the end zone.

<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]Receiving OTD Leaders After Week 11[/h]
RkReceiverTargTD2013 OTDWk 11 OTD
1Calvin Johnson103119.71.6
2Brandon Marshall10087.31.2
3Alshon Jeffery8836.80.6
4A.J. Green11866.60.0
5Dez Bryant8985.90.0
6Wes Welker8795.70.2
7Andre Johnson11155.61.5
8Vincent Jackson11155.50.8
9Jordy Nelson7875.40.0
10Larry Fitzgerald7465.10.7
11Vernon Davis5385.10.7
12Pierre Garcon10435.00.6
13Cecil Shorts9214.90.0
14Martellus Bennett5844.80.0
15Aaron Dobson6644.80.5
16Torrey Smith8634.70.8
17Josh Gordon7744.61.4
18DeSean Jackson8574.60.0
19Jimmy Graham88104.50.5
20T.Y. Hilton8054.40.3
21Tony Gonzalez7544.40.0
22Kenbrell Thompkins5744.40.0
23Antonio Brown10154.40.5
24Victor Cruz9444.20.5
25Jason Witten7144.20.0
26Hakeem Nicks7304.20.5
27Austin Pettis4744.10.0
28Joseph Fauria1754.10.4
29Greg Olsen5444.11.2
30Julius Thomas62104.00.4
31Michael Floyd6734.00.2
32Demaryius Thomas8894.00.1
33Denarius Moore7053.90.4
34Golden Tate6243.70.5
35Steve Smith7833.60.0
36Julian Edelman7623.60.0
37Steve Johnson7533.50.0
38Jordan Cameron6953.50.0
39Jason Avant5513.50.0
40Eric Decker8133.50.0

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<!-- end inline 2 -->Following a league-high 1.6 receiving OTD this past week, Calvin Johnson (9.7) has extended his season lead in the category to 2.5 over second-place Brandon Marshall. Johnson failed to convert on three end zone targets in Week 11, but scored twice thanks to scampers from 3 and 35 yards out. "Megatron" paces the NFL with 17 end zone targets through 11 weeks of play. Only 10 other players have reached double digits in the category.
Dwayne Bowe (2.6) has underwhelmed in his first season with Andy Reid calling the shots. The veteran receiver has been more involved lately, however, and finished No. 7 in receiving OTD in Week 11. Bowe saw a pair of targets within 2 yards of the end zone against Denver and took one of them home for a score. Although that is certainly reason for optimism, note that Bowe has only one end zone target this year. Additionally, he's been targeted while inside the opponent's 10-yard line on only seven occasions.
Running backs generally don't get many strong scoring opportunities via the passing game, which makes the aforementioned Bell (1.4) worth discussing again. Bell is fourth among all running backs in receiving OTD this season and was No. 18 overall in the category this past weekend. The rookie back has already seen four targets within 6 yards of the end zone, but has yet to score his first career receiving touchdown.
Speaking of running backs, none have a higher receiving OTD than Danny Woodhead (2.5). He's caught both of his end zone targets and Philip Rivers has looked his way five other times while Woodhead was within 6 yards of paydirt. For perspective, Woodhead is No. 74 in the receiving OTD among all players.
It's time for what has seemingly been a weekly Hakeem Nicks (4.2) update. The once-dominant fantasy wide receiver saw another end zone target in Week 11, but has yet to score a touchdown this season. Nicks sits at No. 26 overall in receiving OTD and is the only player among the top 69 in the category without a score this season. He's now zero for his last 15 on end zone targets.
Riley Cooper's (3.4) fantasy value has been a hot debate recently. Putting up huge numbers with Nick Foles under center, Cooper has scored seven times this season. He's hauled in an impressive but unsustainable 4-of-5 end zone targets and has seen four other looks inside the opponent's 8-yard line. Of course, Cooper's success can mostly be attributed to games where Foles was the starter, so let's focus on those contests. Despite leading the NFL with six receiving scores in those five games, Cooper's receiving OTD was only 16th-best. Additionally, he saw only three end zone targets during those games, which tied for 18th and was seven behind Marshall's league-high 10. Cooper fits the bill as a boom-or-bust WR3.
As with the running backs, I wanted to take a look at the end zone target list on a team-by-team basis, as these are the throws most likely to result in a touchdown. One quick glance over the receiving OTD leaderboard will give you a strong hint as to which team is No. 1 on this list. The Bears have attempted 42 throws into the end zone, which is seven more than the No. 2 Lions. The Bengals (30), Cowboys (28) and Colts (27) round out the top 5. On the other end, the Jets are dead last with 10 end zone targets. The Dolphins (11), Chiefs (13), 49ers (14) and Vikings (16) are close behind. This helps explain why the likes of Bowe, Stephen Hill, Mike Wallace and Greg Jennings have disappointed this season.
 

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Voices of the bullied, and the bullies

By Matthew Berry | ESPN.com

You never know.

I've written hundreds of "Talented Mr. Roto" columns since 1999 in various places (and since 2007 on ESPN.com), and if there's one thing I learned, you never know how people will react to the intro. I've stopped trying to guess. But I'll tell you this: I never imagined in a million years that confiding in you all that the bullying I suffered in my childhood still haunted me to this day would get the reaction it did.

It was deeply important to me, I felt the need to finally get that story out there, it was cathartic ... but that didn't mean people would like it. I was worried what people would think of me, how they would perceive me or even that people wouldn't care. "Another article about Martin and Incognito? Ugh."

In almost 15 years of writing fantasy, I have never gotten such a wonderful response to something I have written. I was blown away. People were so amazingly kind and supportive on Twitter, Facebook and in my ESPN mailbag. I heard from people I had blocked on Twitter, apologizing and asking to be unblocked. (Any donation to The V Foundation gets you unblocked. Send a copy of the receipt to MatthewBerryTMR@gmail.com with "TWITTER" in the subject line.) Friends sent texts and emails, and the whole thing was so wonderful, I can't begin to tell you how much it meant to me. I tried to respond to as many people as I could and continue to try to do so, but I know I didn't get to everyone and for that I apologize. Know this: I read every single one, and it meant more to me than you'll ever know. I am so blessed to have you all as readers.

The most gratifying thing about the whole experience, however, is how many people suddenly felt safe and emboldened to confide their stories in me.

Michael from Ohio: Matthew, kudos to you for your article/admission re: bullying. I am a therapist, and people do not understand the impact that bullying has on a person's life. You are 100 percent correct that bullies are often unaware they are doing it. While I'm sure writing that was both painful and somewhat liberating, you are doing more good than you know by drawing attention not just to the bullying, but to its long-term impact. I've met with many people who were bullied, and it is remarkable how much detail they can remember for events that happened 20-plus years ago. Too often, those who were bullied view themselves the same way as the bullies did, and sadly, they carry this self-view throughout their lives.

TMR: I'm very lucky for about a billion different reasons, but among them is that I have this platform to share. A platform that not everyone gets. So if last week's column was all about me, I'd like to make this week all about the readers and their stories. And believe Michael when he tells you people carry that self-view imposed by bullies their entire lives.

Jim from Pennsylvania: My whole life I've been short, pale, and have had dark circles under my eyes. Sometimes they aren't noticeable, other times they are. It leads to a combination of being called a "cancer patient," "crack head" and many more things. It's made me second guess that anyone could look at me and see anything else. It's that fear that when you're with your friends at a bar someone random will make a comment that you look like you have been in a fight because it just happens (the circles) get a little darker when you drink. It's that fear that stops you from liking yourself, from seeing that anyone could like you. You obsess over one part of who you are to the point that it's the only thing that matters.
I think what the Martin story always misses is not only fear like you said, but also how you said some things you just don't forget. Sometimes no matter how well you do, no matter how much you're surrounded by good people, a few words from a random guy looking to make a joke of someone else can tear you down in seconds. It's crippling to always be looking at people hoping they aren't thinking comments others will say. It's impossible to stop it and I think that's what people don't understand. That at some point all the comments and actions begin to drown you. You no longer believe that you're worth anything because despite having people to tell you otherwise, it's always the insults that sound all too familiar that will crush you.

TMR: Some people were surprised. They see me on TV, they hear me making jokes on the podcast, I'm clearly a happy guy. How could this be in my past? You'd be amazed at who has suffered.
Jim from North Carolina: This column regarding fear and being bullied and the impact it still has upon you today has struck home to me. Growing up in NJ, I had thick glasses, I was over-weight, on the taller side and was the target of relentless bullying all through grade school and high school. Between the time I was a target from him and now I have served in Desert Storm in the US Navy, in Iraqi Freedom in the US Army, fought fires and done many other things that should prove I am beyond this fear. Yet it doesn't. My shrink has helped me deal with this, yet part of me knows I shall never be able to leave it behind. As I was always one of the taller and bigger kids when I complained I was told to suck it up, you are so much bigger than the others, even some of my older tormenters. And as you pointed out, they never stopped, they just changed what they were doing and got better at being subtle.

TMR: Thank you for your service, Jim and I'm glad you brought up therapy. So important in dealing with stuff like this. As Alex, a psychology doctoral student from Ohio, wrote, "What often goes unrecognized is the coping skills the victim has available. What I have actually found in my research is that not only are children with mental illness at risk for poor social functioning [and bullying] but kids with poor social skills who are bullied are also at risk of developing psychopathology. Tragic."

But it wasn't just the people who had been bullied I heard from.


Carlos from New York: When you say that bullies tend not to remember what they did, you may be right. But me? I remember all the bullying I did. I figure I became a bully to protect myself from the bullying and ridicule I received at a young age. My mom was an alcoholic and not in the best state to take care of a 6-year old, so I'd show up to school in clothes I would pick out and well, as a 6-year old, probably didn't make the best choices (also because of our economic status did I have the "socially acceptable" options). So at an early age I protected myself by turning the dynamic in reverse. I became the bully. The worst part wasn't the physical abuse (I was never that big so I wasn't a physical menace) but the verbal abuse I'd put on the kids. I learned to break down kids emotionally by attacking them verbally, finding their insecurities and just relentlessly beating them down with my vicious words about anything from their clothes, to their bodies, to their parents' bodies, to the cars their parent's drove them to school in, anything I saw as fodder I took advantage of in my attacks. Well, by the time I was 17, I was waking up at night in cold sweats yelling "I'm sorry! I'm sorry!" And to this day the one regret I have in my life, that I have never forgiven myself for, are the mistakes I made as a child bullying other kids and the fear of the negative effect it had on them. I write you not in any way to defend bullies. Just to tell you about one person's story. Thanks for speaking up.

TMR: I heard from some people who didn't realize they were bullies.
Andrew from California: You so perfectly captured the core of what bullying does to people that I could not help but examine my own actions with a new perspective. I saw that I sometimes let fear rule my actions. More importantly, I see that I may bully others. Your words were convincing in a way I did not expect. Bullying can be so subtle, and your column revealed that I seldom think about how the other person interprets my actions. I know what bullying feels like, yet I wonder how much I let my control-freak nature cross the line and increase someone else's fear. It can be a daily struggle with that part of myself, and it takes a great deal of prayer, humility and apology to overcome being what I hate.
TMR: The secret shame of being bullied was something that resonated with a lot of people.

Brad from Washington: Thank you for that, Berry. Not for the tears so much as the reassurance that I'm not alone in still being embarrassed about being the scared, bullied kid through school. I feel I was happy, with lots of friends in elementary school, and when 6th grade came I was ruined. I had zero friends at school from then until I dropped out in my junior year. I ended up doing all I could to go unnoticed, including wearing the plainest clothes and keeping the same stupid haircut all the way until the end. Sounds so stupid now, but that kid was a shell of a human. My one friend was also my cousin, who remains my best friend to this day. He lived about an hour away and had no clue what my life was like at home. He still has no idea that he was my only friend and that school life was hell for me. He was very popular and I was terrified to tell him, and I'm still embarrassed to tell anyone now at 32 years old. This was hard for me to type out, even knowing you probably won't get around to reading it.
TMR: Well, Brad, I'm 43 and I just now got the guts up to tell anyone. Seriously. My younger brother never knew half the stuff I wrote about. He knew a few things that happened at our house but not all of it. When the stuff would happen in the middle of the night I would stay up all night cleaning so no one would see. Here's how secret I kept it: I've been in therapy for almost a decade. I've told my therapist everything. Hopes, dreams, fears, actions I've regretted, flaws, you name it. Everything. Except this. I was even too embarrassed to tell my therapist. My wife found out about it when she read the article, and said to me, among other things, "We will never let that happen to our kids." That parental fear was a popular theme.

Erik from Oregon: This should be reading material for every parent out there. I know I'll use it for my son, who has Asperger's and is somewhat awkward. We love him a great deal, and we want him to be a strong kid. Articles like this help a bunch. Tiny ripples.

TMR: One question that came up a lot was if anyone from my past has gotten in touch with me since then, especially any of the guys that were my tormenters. The answer is no. I'm friends on Facebook with a number of people that I went to high school with, and like I do with every column, I posted the link, but so far ... nothing. Which I was sort of surprised by but sort of not. They were jerks then, why should they be any different now? I will say I really admire someone like Susan:
Susan from Tennessee: Thank you for writing your story about being bullied. There are so many of us that had similar experiences. It took me more than 2 decades to come close to closing the door on that part of my life. Thanks to Facebook I found the boy that bullied me relentlessly from elementary school through high school and shared with him what he made me have to overcome. He happened to have two girls of his own and I wished that they would never have to experience what he did to me. He actually took the time to reply, apologized and shared how he eventually grew up into a man. You may still live with those memories, but memories don't make the man. The choices we make afterwards do.

TMR: Well put, Susan. I'm still trying to make the right choices, for myself and the people around me. And if my mailbag is any indication, there's a lot of us out there. Which is no small thing.

Let's get to it.

[h=3]Quarterbacks I Love for Week 12

Tom Brady, Patriots: I know, he's had one good week and been bad or mediocre the rest of the year. But you're gonna be flooded with Brady-Peyton Manning stats between now and Sunday night, so I'll just say this: With Peyton on the other side, flinging it around on national TV, in his house, what do you think Tom Brady does? Just hand it off a lot? Against the 28th ranked pass defense? Me, either.
Colin Kaepernick, 49ers: Wow, Christian Ponder looks amazing! He keeps completing passes! He can't miss! Whoa, he's 17 of 21! It's Ponder's world, we're just living in it! How soon until Ponder is Hall of Fame eligible? These are some of the things overheard in the stands when Minnesota played against Washington's defense two weeks ago. You know, back when Washington was still trying. You're starting Colin Kaepernick. Don't get cute.

Mike Glennon, Buccaneers: At least 15 ESPN standard fantasy points in five of the past six games, they are gonna have to throw here (Lions are fifth against the run) and throw successfully, they shall. One of the worst teams in the NFL in defending deep passes (no team has given up more touchdown passes of 20 plus yards), the Lions are top 12 in most fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks and have given up at least 18 points in four straight.

If you're desperate: No team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks than the Dallas Cowboys, and Eli Manning's best game of the season was against them earlier this year. Cowboys too banged up on defense. ... You know who gives up the second-most fantasy points? The Jaguars, which is why Case Keenum should be usable this week. What are they gonna do, bench him and let Matt Schaub throw it? Again? ... Scott Tolzien? Scott Tolzien. The yards have been there (more than 600 the past two games), it's been the turnovers that have killed him. That shouldn't be a problem. The Vikings are bottom 10 in interceptions and sacks this year.

<H3>Quarterbacks I Hate in Week 12</H3>
Philip Rivers, Chargers: As Zach Rodgers of ESPN Stats & Information points out (shout out to him for all his help), over the last five games, Rivers has averaged just 275.8 yards and 1.2 touchdowns, and now he's at an angry Chiefs team in Arrowhead, where they'll need to run a lot to have any chance in this game. Not a top 12 play this week.

Matt Ryan, Falcons: Among the fun part of Love/Hate is coming up with new stats each week to show just how bad Matt Ryan is. Here's the newest one: Over the past four weeks, Matt Ryan has averaged 10 fantasy points per game. 10. Among the 29 quarterbacks to start at least three games during that span, Matt Ryan is 25th in fantasy points per game. How cold is he? Ice Cold! Thanks, Andre 3000. Even without Jabari Greer, the Saints are legit; they're allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and in Week 12, I don't feel like hoping for junk time, which is the only way Ryan is good here.

Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins: Facing the Panthers, with the majority of his offensive line out of the game for assorted reasons? No, thank you. Not even in two quarterback leagues, not even if Charles Johnson doesn't play.

<H3>Running Backs I Love in Week 12</H3>
Zac Stacy, Rams: Since taking over the starting duties in Week 5, Stacy is top five in carries, rushing yards and rushing yards after contact. Dude is averaging almost 30 touches a game as a starter and now faces a Bears defense that, over the past five weeks, allowed the second-most yards per carry, allowed the second-most fantasy points per game and recently made Brandon Jacobs look like Jim Brown.

Ben Tate, Texans: Getting further and further removed from the rib injury, the dude is tough. He's averaged 2.3 yards after contact per carry this season, most among running backs with at least 100 carries. Meanwhile, no team has allowed more rushing yards or rushing touchdowns than the Jaguars this season. He had 23 touches against the Raiders last week and is a strong bet to get at least 20 here. A running back getting 20 touches against the Jags? Yeah, I'm starting him.

Andre Brown, Giants: Over the past two weeks (since Brown came back) no running back in the NFL has more touches. He's also tied for the second-most red zone touches. Meanwhile, while we've covered the fact that the Cowboys are really banged up, we've yet to mention that they are bottom five in the NFL in rushing yards per game, yards per rush, fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs and, since they can't get off the field, rushing first downs allowed.

Pierre Thomas, Saints: Darren Sproles is banged up and you'll pardon me if I don't entirely buy Mark Ingram's resurgence. Meanwhile, Pierre Thomas has averaged more than 18 touches a game since Week 5 and has been a top-15 running back since then. Falcons just made Bobby Rainey look like Brandon Jacobs against the Bears. That faint ringing you hear in the background is the Falcons actually phoning in the season.

Rashad Jennings, Raiders: Since taking over for The Injured Darren McFadden (his new legal-given name) in Week 9, Jennings leads the league with 192 rushing yards after contact. Now a decent chunk of that came on one play, so it's a bit misleading, but 88 of those yards have come outside the tackles during that span. The Titans have allowed the fourth-most yards after contact outside the tackles this season. Tennessee also allows 1.7 yards after contact per rush, third-most in the league. The takeaway here should be that Jennings is somewhat hard to bring down and the Titans are a poor tackling team. Solid No. 2 running back this week.

If you're desperate: Ryan Mathews at Arrowhead? Why not. Since Week 6, he ranks in the top six in both rushing yards and yards per carry. For what it's worth, KC is giving up 4.7 yards per carry, fourth-most in the league. ... With 14 touches last week for Chris Ogbonnaya, he's your starting running back for the Browns and it's actually not a bad matchup. In the past four games, the Steelers are giving up almost 20 points a game to opposing running backs; he's a sneaky flex play this week, especially in PPR. ... If you're truly scraping, Montee Ball is averaging 23 snaps with six red zone carries over the last three weeks, and New England is giving up 4.9 yards per carry over the last three weeks, sixth most in the NFL. Could see him getting a goal-line carry or two here. ... The Dolphins are top 10 in most rushing touchdowns allowed, and if you have to bet on a Panthers running back getting a goal-line chance, it's Mike Tolbert.

<H3>Running Backs I Hate in Week 12

Le'Veon Bell: I can't imagine you have better options, so you're starting him here (I ranked him inside my top 20), but I wouldn't be using him in a salary-cap league. Since Bell returned from injury in Week 4, there are 17 running backs with at least 100 carries. The only two who have averaged fewer yards per carry than Bell are Ray Rice and Maurice Jones-Drew. Now, you haven't cared because of the volume of work and the scoring, but it's not a great matchup. The Browns have allowed only one rushing touchdown in their past five games.
Lamar Miller, Dolphins: Averaging fewer than six carries a game the last two weeks, no offensive line, going against the Panthers. What has your team ever done to you?

Donald Brown and Trent Richardson, Colts: Richardson's the easy one, of course. He's been so brutal I have no issue if someone wants to drop him; you're certainly not starting him until you see some signs of life. Brown, on the other hand, is coming off his best game of the year, but Richardson is still around, not helping. Neither guy has gotten more than 14 carries in a game since Week 6. And volume is what is gonna be needed here to have a big fantasy day. No team has allowed fewer fantasy points to opposing running backs than the Cardinals.

Ray Rice, Ravens: After weeks of not doing anything at all and being the biggest non-injury-related, first-round bust, I put Ray Rice in the hate list last week and he went off. You're welcome, City of Baltimore. I'm stuck with him in two leagues so I'm putting him here again in a blatant attempt to reverse-jinx (copyright Bill Simmons) him into being back. Because it's really one of two narratives, right? Either he's fully healthy and "back" to being Ray Rice, or it was just a matchup thing last week, against a defense that, again, made Brandon Jacobs look unstoppable. Would love him to be back, I don't trust it yet and I'm not excited about him against the Jets' No. 1-ranked run defense this week, though I'm okay with him as a RB2 in PPR leagues.

<H3>Wide Receivers I love in Week 12</H3>
Vincent Jackson, Buccaneers: See: Glennon, Mike. Since Glennon became his quarterback, Jackson leads the NFL in targets, and targets against the Lions are among the best kind to get.

Marques Colston, Saints: Oh, look, it's Marques Colston again. After disappearing for a while, he seems to have re-emerged the past two weeks with a dozen catches for 187 yards and his first touchdown since Week 1. He's been a frequent target for Brees and now faces the currently vacationing Atlanta Falcons. Only the Bills have allowed more touchdowns per game to opposing wide receivers than the Atlanta Falcons.

Jarrett Boykin, Packers: Aikman to Irvin. Montana to Rice. Tolzien to Boykin. Seen it a million times. In the two weeks since Tolzien took over as the quarterback, Jarrett Boykin has averaged seven receptions and 101.5 yards per game and leads the Packers in targets during that span. The season has not gone the way the Vikings have wanted, either. In the last five weeks, Minnesota ranks in the bottom six in receptions, yards and touchdowns allowed to opposing wide receivers. Solid top-20 play this week.

Torrey Smith, Ravens: No team has allowed more touchdowns on passes at least 15 yards downfield than the Jets, and Torrey is third in the NFL in targets 15 yards or more downfield. Sometimes, it's that simple.
Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd, Cardinals: You're already starting Fitzgerald and, after last week, how are you benching Floyd? But this will make you feel better about both decisions: Over the last five weeks, only one team has allowed more fantasy points or yards to opposing wide receivers than the Indianapolis Colts.

Danny Amendola, Patriots: Here's a stat to tell you something you already know: 91 percent of Danny Amendola's targets have come out of the slot. OK, fine, but here's a stat you may not know: Denver has allowed the second-most receptions and yards to opposing slot receivers.

If you're desperate: With Joe Haden all over Antonio Brown, I like Emmanuel Sanders to have a nice game here. ... There's been a Dwayne Bowe sighting! He's averaged 13 targets a game in his past two and San Diego is bottom five in receptions, receiving yards and fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers. ... I thought Santonio Holmes looked pretty good last week and they are gonna take some shots downfield. The Ravens have allowed the second-most touchdowns of more than 20 yards downfield.

<H3>Wide Receivers I Hate in Week 12</H3>
Antonio Brown, Steelers: Insert wideout facing Joe Haden here. He shut down A.J. Green. Antonio Brown ain't no A.J. Green. And that kind of analysis, kids, is why they pay me the big bucks. (Takes bow.) Fine, you want some stats? Haden has now faced A.J. Green (twice), Torrey Smith (twice), Calvin Johnson and Jordy Nelson. In those six games, those wideouts averaged 48 yards and caught only one touchdown. In two games versus Cleveland, Brown has averaged fewer than 80 yards and has not scored.

Mike Wallace, Dolphins: Which streak is longer? Me putting Wallace on the "hate" list, or Mike Wallace's targets decreasing week-to-week since Week 5? He hasn't scored since Week 2, he's tied with the third-most drops among wide receivers. No offensive line to give Tannehill time for a deep play to develop, the Panthers have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points and touchdowns (tied) to opposing wide receivers. You didn't need all those stats to know Wallace is a bad play against Carolina, I just liked listing them. What was your favorite? I kinda like the drops one.

Steve Smith, Panthers: Meanwhile, in that same game, Brent Grimes has quietly had a very nice season and I expect him on Steve Smith for much of this game. Smith hasn't scored since Week 7 and Miami has allowed only one touchdown to opposing wide receivers this season, fewest in the league. Not a top-20 play for me.

Terrance Williams, Cowboys: Fewer than 40 yards in two straight, and the return of Miles Austin complicates things. The Giants have played much better defense recently and Williams is touchdown-dependent for fantasy value these days. Hate relying on that with another mouth to feed in Dallas and the fact that you know that Dez Bryant will get his.

<H3>Tight Ends I Love for Week 12

Vernon Davis, 49ers: He's accounted for 73 percent of the 49ers' receiving touchdowns this season, by far the highest mark in the league (Calvin Johnson is second at 52 percent). Love that stat. Meanwhile, Washington is tied for the fourth-most touchdowns allowed to opposing tight ends this season.
Coby Fleener, Colts: Ten targets each of the past two weeks, no team has allowed more fantasy points, receptions, yards or touchdowns to opposing tight ends this year than the Cardinals.

If you're desperate: Delanie Walker now has three touchdowns in his last four games, had 10 targets last week and the Raiders have given up three scores to tight ends in the past three weeks. ... They have to throw it to someone in Minnesota and these days. John Carlson is someone. ... I wouldn't start him this week, but I did just pick up the Chargers' Ladarius Green in my deep dynasty league. If anything happens to Gates, you'll be very glad he's on your roster.

<H3>Tight Ends I Hate in Week 12</H3>
Jordan Cameron, Browns: In his last three games with Jason Campbell at quarterback, Cameron has averaged fewer than 40 yards and four receptions with no touchdowns or red zone targets. Steelers are top 10 in fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends. I love his skill set and he's a threat to go off at any time, but how can you trust him?

Martellus Bennett, Bears: With Josh McCown at quarterback, Bennett has yet to record more than four receptions or more than 48 yards in a game, and his targets have decreased each of the past three weeks. Only the Chiefs have allowed fewer fantasy points to opposing tight ends than the Rams.
<H3>Defenses I Love in Week 12:</H3>
Baltimore Ravens: Available in 40 percent of leagues, Baltimore allows 12.8 points per game at home this year, third-fewest in the league. Oh, and Geno Smith leads the league with 20 turnovers.

Arizona Cardinals: They've been money at home, the Colts will be one-dimensional here with the run game shut down, and if there's anyone who knows Andrew Luck's flaws and how to attack them, it's Bruce Arians. The Cardinals are averaging more than 12 fantasy points a game at home.

<H3>Defenses I Hate in Week 12</H3>
Denver Broncos: On the road against Brady? In a game where they will put up points? No, thanks. They average four points a game on the road. You can do better.

New York Jets: A better real-life defense than fantasy defense (and EJ Manuel could probably make an argument against the "good real-life defense" thing), they've put up negative points in three of their past four road games.

And that'll put a wrap on this week's Love/Hate. I'd like to reiterate how incredibly touched I was by everyone who reached out, and I wish I could help everyone who sent a note, tweet or post. If you feel like you need help, or simply want to do something about bullying, please check out StompOutBullying.Org.

</H3></H3>[/h]
 

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[h=1]Addressing RG III's inconsistency[/h][h=3]Also, Maurice Jones-Drew's decline and a lack of confidence in Ray Rice[/h]By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

Three In Depth

1. What's wrong with Robert Griffin III? If you're looking for a writer to opine about RG III's news conferences or parse public statements to intuit whether there are problems between Griffin and his coach, you've got the wrong guy. There could be something to such rumors, but we'll never know the truth until after the fact, nor do I believe RG III would somehow play worse because he doesn't like Mike Shanahan. Inventing narratives to explain what we see on the field is the domain of far more creative writers than I.

Instead, I just watch and rewatch him play. Four weeks ago, I did a "Film Room" segment on Griffin in which I said I was heartened by the quarterback's renewed emphasis on running, his success at it, and the good things that likely would happen for his throwing as a result. In the four games since that analysis, here's how things have gone:

[h=3]Robert Griffin III, Past 4 Weeks[/h]
Comp. %59.0
Pass TD6
INT4
Rushes28
Yards112
Rush TD0
QBR46

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In that span, Griffin is 5-of-17 on passes that have traveled at least 20 yards in the air, ranking him 23rd in completion percentage on such throws. In Week 7 versus the Chicago Bears, RG III had eight runs out of an option look. In the four games since, he's had 13 total. Now, anyone who watches the Washington Redskins play knows that this is not because the team doesn't use the pistol. In fact, over the past four weeks, it has used it on almost half its snaps (46.3 percent, to be exact), and no other team in that span is over 23 percent. (The San Francisco 49ers have used it 16.6 percent of the time, which helps explain Colin Kaepernick's maddening season. But that's a topic for another time.) RG III is running the same offense he's always run, but isn't taking off as much.



And to my eyes, it's killing the team. Take Week 11 against the Philadelphia Eagles. Through three quarters (and 40 additional seconds), Griffin was 7-of-15 for 57 yards and no touchdowns. And he was, in that span, mostly a pocket passer. On Washington's first drive, he had Logan Paulsen open on what might've been a 38-yard TD but hellaciously overthrew him. In the third quarter, he wildly missed Darrel Young on a seam route that could've been a big play. Later in that same stanza he threw a deep "in" to Santana Moss about 10 feet over Moss' head. And on a fourth-and-1 around midfield at the start of the fourth quarter, he had Paulsen open in the flat for a first down and mysteriously threw it 3 yards short. In the pocket, he was awful.

Then rally time came, and Griffin started scrambling around and throwing on the run, and things got crackulating. The touchdown to Young was a fluke (two Eagles defenders smashed into each other), but it was still a nice throw on a scramble to the left. His long TD to Aldrick Robinson came on a play-action sweep that turned into a naked boot. He did later miss a potential game-tying throw to Robinson on the dead run, but still, to my eyes, it was more "old" RG III that nearly saved the Redskins' bacon. What do we take from all this? Boy, I don't think I'm blaming offensive scheme for what ails Griffin. It seems to me they're giving him all the pistol he can handle and telling him to take it from there. He made a few plays with his legs, but not enough, and he really got "sandlot" only toward the end. From the pocket, he was mostly a mess. Monday night against the 49ers? We'll see which multithreat QB can shake off what ails him and make magic with his legs.

2. The ballad of Maurice Jones-Drew: Before his lost past couple of seasons, MJD was one of my favorite players. A little ball of fury and at a charitable 5-foot-7 improbably one of the NFL's best short-yardage runners, Jones-Drew was on a legitimate Hall of Fame pace. But missing 10 games with a serious foot injury last season and averaging 2.9 yards per carry this season have pretty much put the kibosh on Canton talk. Now we're at the point of wondering what he offers his fantasy owners at all. My fellow rankers have some faith in MJD this week, perhaps because they just saw Rashad Jennings post a nice day against the Houston Texans. I'm not there, and to explain why, I'm hitting the tape.

MJD used to be fast. He'd bully his way into a crease and just go. We have to be careful jumping to the conclusion that last season's serious foot injury (and more than 2,000 NFL touches) have sapped that speed, because when you're running behind what by most accounts is a pretty shaky line, often there is no crease, and you're just pummeling yourself into giant defenders. So we have to pick and choose plays. Here are a few from Week 11 versus the Arizona Cardinals:

• With 7:43 remaining the first quarter, MJD gains 3 yards up the middle and gets a face mask penalty tacked on. On the play, he gets behind his fullback, Will Ta'ufo'ou, squirts into the hole and then kind of just stops. Cardinals LB Karlos Dansby is engaged and can't really even see MJD, and to his left is wide-open space. A jump-step to his right, and Jones-Drew is in the clear for a long gain. But he just runs into the back of his offensive lineman as someone gets a mitt on him from behind.

• With 5:13 left in the second quarter, it's a classic zone-blocking scheme where MJD is supposed to run down the line and cut back when he sees an opening. In this case, his blockers all push to his left, and he cuts it back right, trying to get the edge around his right tackle. Tight end Clay Harbor pulls across the formation and gets a crushing block on Matt Shaughnessy, leveling him, yet Jones-Drew is slow enough getting between his right tackle and the fallen Shaughnessy that Shaughnessy can reach up and trip him with one hand.




• With 12:22 left in the fourth quarter, Jones-Drew gets it on a sweep to the left, but unfortunately Daryl Washington is pretty much unblocked and it turns into a race to the corner. It's no black mark on MJD that he doesn't make a big play here, and maybe I'm romanticizing his halcyon days a bit, but it's also sad to know he has no chance to get to the corner. Washington has got him and basically rides him out of bounds. Once upon a time, MJD timed out at the combine at 4.39 seconds in the 40. Washington (drafted four years later but only a year-and-a-half younger) ran 4.66.

It should go without saying that Jones-Drew doesn't have to be the '09 version of himself to provide some fantasy value. He plugged in a touchdown from the Cardinals' 1-yard line Sunday and made his owners' weeks. But any running back who's got a starting job has random TD possibilities. If I have other choices, I'm afraid a perceived good matchup isn't enough to tempt me into using MJD. And the truth is that, according to my metrics, the Texans have actually removed 2.8 fantasy points from the averages of the running backs they've faced over the past five weeks, even with Jennings' nice Week 11 contest factored in.

3. A Value-Based Drafting update: Normally, I'd wait until after Week 12 to do my next VBD update, primarily because the math gets a bit easier once all teams have played the same number of games. But Thanksgiving will knock out this column, so you're getting a Week 11 update instead. It's turned into a funny year, and you know why: There's been carnage in the first-round RB ranks. Arian Foster and Doug Martin are out for the season, and Ray Rice, C.J. Spiller and Trent Richardson are shadows of their expected selves. So while several projected No. 2 backs have lived up to their advance billing, there's more room in the top 20 for other positions. (For a frame of reference: Last season, the first nine spots in VBD -- and 13 of the top 20 -- were held by RBs.) I'm not particularly looking forward to the barrage of questions next year about why we project so many first-round RBs after half of them proved unworthy in '13. Put it this way: Even with ridiculous depth-chart turnover among supposed elite backs, we still have 10 rushers in the first 20 as of Week 11.

But let's face it, this is pretty surprising (note that these ranks don't include Thursday night's game):

[h=3]Current VBD Top 20, This Season[/h]
1Peyton ManningQB
2Calvin JohnsonWR
3Matt ForteRB
4Jamaal CharlesRB
5Drew BreesQB
6Marshawn LynchRB
7Adrian PetersonRB
8LeSean McCoyRB
9Knowshon MorenoRB
10Demaryius ThomasWR
11Jimmy GrahamTE
12Matthew StaffordQB
13Frank GoreRB
14Brandon MarshallWR
15Alfred MorrisRB
16Chris JohnsonRB
17Jordy NelsonWR
18Reggie BushRB
19DeSean JacksonWR
20Antonio BrownWR

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Right now, Manning is the runaway fantasy MVP. There's still time for things to change, and perhaps the Denver Broncos do have a tougher schedule in late November and December than what came before, but it's going to take several mediocre games for Manning to lose his lead. There's another tier after McCoy right now, and then another after Stafford. But those tiers aren't so huge that we couldn't see a major shake-up by January.

Four in brief

4. Ray Rice -- recipe for disaster: I can't believe in Rice even as a flex this week. You know what nice numbers he posted versus the Bears last week (25 carries, 148 yards, 1 TD), and you also know the many explanations for why this might not represent a true reversal of fortune for Rice (hurricane-force winds, two-hour delay, soft Chicago run defense). But the deciding factor of whether Rice should be in your lineup is the fact that he faces the New York Jets' defense. No thanks. By my metrics, the Jets have removed 8.1 fantasy points from the averages of the rushers they've faced in the past five weeks. Even in a blowout defeat last week, they allowed 68 yards on 38 carries. Sheldon Richardson, in particular, stood out as a monster in that contest; if you've got the Game Rewind package, check out the play with 6:28 remaining in the second quarter, where Fred Jackson catches a screen right and Richardson runs him down and ankle-tackles him. This is a 300-pound rookie. Damon Harrison has been terrific, too. Maybe we'll look back on the Bears game as the moment everything changed for the Baltimore Ravens' offensive line and for Rice himself, and maybe I'm being overly cautious here. But this is about as bad a matchup as a running back can have, and it happens to be a running back who's been dreadful just about every game except last week's. Any RB can fall into the end zone, but I'm not starting Rice.


<!-- begin inline 1 --><!-- INLINE MODULE -->[h=4]ESPN Fantasy Football On The Go[/h]

<!-- END INLINE MODULE --><!-- end inline 1 -->5. John Carlson gets his due: I know Christian Ponder is no great shakes. I know the Minnesota Vikings are DOA. And I know the tight end position is a giant flat tier after its top two members. But I look at how Carlson has performed in the two games since Kyle Rudolph's injury, and I'm not sure how we can avoid him as a top-10 option. He's got seven targets in each game and has caught 12 passes overall for 167 yards and a score and, more importantly, has made significant plays after the catch. It's now clear that Rudolph was always going to be overvalued coming off his nine-TD season in '12, but as options like Tony Gonzalez, Jordan Cameron and Martellus Bennett produce multiweek fades, beggars can't be choosers. Recall that Carlson had 55 and 51 catches in his first two seasons with the Seattle Seahawks, scoring 12 TDs in that span. He's not some schmo. And right now Carlson is still available in more than 98 percent of ESPN leagues. Nobody can promise you tight end production in any given week, because tight ends are evil. But if you're looking to shake things up at the game's most frustrating position, I like Carlson as the guy to do it.

6. Is Roddy White cooked? The truth is, I don't think it's possible to know the answer to this question. In Week 10, he seemed to run all kinds of routes against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, although of course he fumbled after his first catch and was stuck on 16 yards receiving until the blowout's final series, on which he caught the dirtiest of garbage touchdowns. But Thursday night against the New Orleans Saints, there just wasn't any urgency to get White the ball. The Saints had emerging No. 1 corner Keenan Lewis lined up against White a lot, and it seemed Matt Ryan was mighty content shooting in the other direction, attempting to locate Darius Johnson against Corey White. That led Johnson to six catches and 87 yards on eight targets, though his inexperience showed on a bad third-down drop and a late fumble deep in Saints territory. The point here for me isn't so much what Roddy White did or didn't do Thursday (in the end, he had two catches on two targets for 24 yards), but rather the Falcons' lack of urgency to make him the focus of their passing offense. Did they try him in the slot a few times? Yes, and Lewis followed him in there at least once, while other times Roddy was covered by Kenny Vaccaro. But for the most part it was Roddy split wide left with Lewis across from him, and Ryan just didn't really even look over that way. And that lack of moving him around to find favorable matchups may speak volumes about where he is physically, or a lack of rapport he has with his QB right now. We've been told Roddy is healthy and that he could become a target monster in December. And I still think you can hang on to him if you've got the bench spot handy, though it's by no means required. Frankly, until we see the Falcons actually scheming to make sure Roddy White gets involved, I don't see how we can feel good about starting him.

7. Anyone else feel like Pierre Thomas has been at least partly wasted in New Orleans? Darren Sproles missed Thursday night's tilt against the Falcons, and we got a glimpse of what the TV series "Feature-Back Frenchy" might've looked like all these years. Thomas was perhaps the best player on the field, racking up 130 total yards on 15 touches, converting a couple of huge third-and-longs and basically doing everything you'd want your bell cow to do. Sproles has had his moments in '13, but overall he's been disappointing. In fact, in several games Thomas has wrested the catching-back role; Frenchy now has 56 receptions this year compared to Sproles' 38, an unexpected development. It makes you wonder what Thomas could do with a traditional week-to-week feature back's workload. Alas, the way the Saints operate, you just know the moment you really start counting on Thomas as a No. 2 fantasy back, we'll see a contest where Sproles goes bananas and leaves Frenchy in the dust. This is the legacy of the Drew Brees multiverse, and sometimes it stings like a bumblebee. It can be hard to remember that Thomas already has three 900-scrimmage-yard seasons in his six-year career, and now he's on pace for a career-best 1,297 scrimmage yards in '13. He's now the Saints rusher you'd feel best about using going forward, but again, New Orleans mixes it up so much on a weekly basis that any fantasy playoff tilt spent banking on Thomas will be a white-knuckler.
 

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[h=1]Instant Impressions for Week 12[/h][h=3]Many notable running backs injured; Jones-Drew, Palmer playing well lately[/h]By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

The NFL season's third month ended with an onslaught. It turns out playing running back is pretty hard on a fellow.

Week 12 saw several high-profile RBs go down. As of this writing, there was no official word on every one of these guys, but each of them figures to be a significant story heading into the money portion of your fantasy season:

Zac Stacy: Left the St. Louis Rams' win with a concussion. Before his injury, Stacy had 97 total yards and a TD on 13 touches. It's unknown whether he'll pass the NFL's concussion protocol before Week 13's matchup against the San Francisco 49ers. If he doesn't, fellow rookie Benny Cunningham (13 carries for 109 yards and a TD, mostly after Stacy's injury) will probably get the start, potentially with Isaiah Pead as his backup.


Knowshon Moreno: Injured his right foot during a Herculean effort Sunday night, and was able to return to a game in which he had 37 carries for 224 yards, but reportedly was seen in a walking boot and on crutches after the contest. Because he was able to return, I'm assuming he'll be OK for next week's showdown with the Kansas City Chiefs, but that's not guaranteed. Montee Ball fumbled again Sunday night, and C.J. Anderson took over the backup job thereafter.

Ryan Mathews: Left the San Diego Chargers' stirring comeback after re-aggravating a hamstring problem. Before leaving, Mathews had 16 touches for 65 yards and a goal-line TD. Knowing Mathews' history, you'd have to consider him questionable for next week against the Cincinnati Bengals. Ronnie Brown got some run in Mathews' place Sunday, but Danny Woodhead would be the obvious prime beneficiary.

Daniel Thomas: Left the final play of the third quarter of the Miami Dolphins' loss with an ankle injury, carted off after touching the ball five times for 10 yards. While Thomas was in there, Lamar Miller had 10 touches, perpetuating a frustrating platoon. If Thomas has to miss significant time, perhaps we'll finally go back to Miller dominating the backfield workload, though next week versus the New York Jets figures to be a bad day regardless.

Chris Ivory: Didn't actually leave the game because of his injured ankle, but was reportedly headed for an MRI after the contest. His performance (nine carries for 35 yards) was possibly limited by his team's offensive ineptitude and its preference to use Bilal Powell when trailing, but probably also involved his health. It would be a shame if he misses a good matchup Week 13 against the Dolphins.

Matt Forte: Left the Chicago Bears' loss with what looked like a wrenched knee and missed some time, but was able to return. One wonders, however, if the Bears' stubborn insistence on giving the incompetent Michael Bush touch after touch on the goal line might have been related to this injury.

Eddie Lacy: Left the Green Bay Packers' tie in overtime, meaning James Starks took over during the extra stanza. Fortunately, Lacy was dealing with an asthma attack, which shouldn't linger. He should be OK for Thanksgiving.

Remember: Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @CHarrisESPN for more analysis during the week. For now, let's look at Sunday's other top storylines:

• Bobby Rainey's glass slipper fell off in Week 12. He had 18 carries for 35 yards in a tough matchup against a solid Detroit Lions run defense, to go with zero catches on one target. The good news? For the moment, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have settled on Rainey as their lead guy, as Brian Leonard had only two offensive touches despite kind of a run-and-gun second half. The bad news? Rainey isn't a true feature back, and gets the Carolina Panthers next week.


• Maurice Jones-Drew had 144 total yards on 20 touches and a one-yard TD, including a 44-yard scamper. I thought Cecil Shorts might've gotten jobbed in favor of MJD's score, but the Jacksonville Jaguars didn't challenge, yet either way that's a great stat line for Jones-Drew, his best of the season. I look forward to digging into the tape and seeing if there's some unexpected speed here that I didn't see previously from MJD. But it's great for Jones-Drew's owners: Thanks to some short scores, he's got double-digit fantasy points in three of his past five contests. We'll take 'em! MJD gets the Cleveland Browns in Week 13.

• As for the Ray Rice resurgence? Not so much. Rice produced 27 yards on 17 touches against the vicious Jets defense, and it was as if Week 11 versus the Bears never happened. Rice was stuffed in the backfield time and again, finding no lanes and failing to make many tacklers miss any time he found himself in the open. The Baltimore Ravens actually lined up Tyrod Taylor under center several times and tried to inject life via some option looks (with Joe Flacco comically lining up out wide), but that pretty much failed. I think last week proved that Rice still has something left in the tank, even if he might not fully be himself (either for health or usage reasons). And that implies this is an all-around problem involving the O-line. You can't feel good about starting him most weeks.

• Somebody get Stevan Ridley a shovel. Ridley had 14 yards on four carries on Sunday night's first drive, and then the unthinkable happened: He fumbled again. It was his fourth lost fumble of the season, tops among all NFL RBs, and it earned Ridley a place on the bench. It wasn't as if Shane Vereen was particularly sure-handed, dropping passes left and right, but at least he has the excuse of a cast on his wrist. LeGarrette Blount played momentarily but then fumbled himself (and also looked like he was knocked out on the play), leaving Brandon Bolden to split the early-down work with Vereen. Frankly, it's impossible to know how this is going to shake out. Will the New England Patriots ever trust Ridley again? Will Bolden become the early-down starter? Will Vereen make notions of "early-down starter" outdated? I have no clue. Nobody does.

• When is a great performance not quite a great performance? Mike Wallace had five catches for 127 yards and a 53-yard TD on a bomb. But it could've been so much better. On that long score, Ryan Tannehill badly underthrew Wallace, but Mr. Sixty Minutes made a terrific adjustment. Later in the first half, Wallace caught a 57-yarder on another bomb, but it was another terribly underthrown pass that would've been another TD had Tannehill led Wallace. And it happened again in the second half, where Wallace got behind the Carolina Panthers defense but the ball was way underthrown and incomplete. This is just a weird situation. Tannehill has all the wing you want, but just doesn't seem to be able to make deep throws. I'm glad for the nice statistical day. But these QB problems still linger.


• So much for Haden Island. Folks worried that Antonio Brown, the NFL's receptions leader, wouldn't produce against the Browns because he'd be matched up with Joe Haden were given sweet relief. Brown scored on a 41-yard deep strike from Ben Roethlisberger in the second quarter, and at that point had five catches on seven targets for 83 yards. Thereafter, Haden clamped down and Brown had only one more grab for nine more yards, but he'd done enough. Haden is tremendous. But Brown belongs to the echelon of unbenchable stars.

• In that same game, Josh Gordon set a Cleveland Browns single-game franchise record with 237 receiving yards, and even scored a garbage-time TD. It's true that 111 of Gordon's yards came after the Pittsburgh Steelers led 27-3, but who cares? Gordon is a massive part of the game plan, no matter whether it's Jason Campbell or Brandon Weeden under center. Campbell took an unpenalized left cross to his head Sunday and had to leave the game, so it's unclear who'll start at QB in Week 13.

• Turns out maybe Ben Tate isn't the perfect Arian Foster handcuff. A desperate Gary Kubiak decided he didn't like what he saw from Tate in the first quarter Sunday, as Tate had 6 yards on four carries to go with two catches for 11 yards. So he gave Dennis Johnson two of three series in the second quarter and Johnson performed better. Thus in the second half, Tate was the receiving back (three more grabs for 15 yards) while Johnson carried the mail (overall: 15 touches for 87 yards). I'll dig into the tape soon and see what I can see, but realize that Johnson is small, as in, Jacquizz Rodgers small. I'm not yet sold that the woeful Houston Texans would make a switch for Week 13, but I'll keep an open mind.

• Jason Witten is forgiven for accumulating only 37 yards on four catches, but scoring two red zone TDs. After all, the story of his career has pretty much been the opposite of that: racking up big yards but rarely finding the end zone. This man who has scored five TDs or fewer in four of his past five seasons while posting at least 942 yards receiving in all those seasons? He's at six and counting for '13.


• Carson Palmer has looked like a downright legit NFL QB over his past two games. After beginning the year with at least one interception in his first nine contests and at least two picks in five of those games, Palmer has gone back-to-back weeks without throwing one to the opposing defense while scoring 24 and 20 fantasy points, not coincidentally his two highest outputs of the season. Is it time to trust the Arizona Cardinals passing game? I'm not there yet. I hate to fall back on matchups, especially because the Jags (Week 11's opponent) really have played better on D lately. But while I don't fear Palmer's matchup next week against the Philadelphia Eagles, things are tougher after that: STL, @TEN, @SEA, SF. Those figure to be four straight minus matchups.

• Wonder why I don't advocate you trading for fantasy defenses? Hello, Chiefs D/ST. It's fair to offer the excuse that both Tamba Hali and Justin Houston had to leave Sunday's loss to the Chargers, leaving the Chiefs with a great-googly-moogly of a pass rush. But that doesn't explain why K.C. has two sacks in its past four games combined. I've been talking about how much I fear the poor quality of this secondary for weeks, and it obviously shows when the team can't get to the quarterback. In those past four contests, they've allowed an average of 307 passing yards, including three games of 283 passing yards or more. (Philip Rivers mustered 392 Sunday.) Bench them next weekend against the Denver Broncos.

• It's not that Alex Smith can't throw it deep. Week 12 is proof. Smith took multiple shots to Donnie Avery on Sunday; they hooked up for a deep 32-yard first-quarter TD and a 36-yard gain in the second quarter, Avery drew an end-zone interference call in the third quarter, and then later in the game Avery was open on a third-and-long deep in the Chiefs' territory and Smith took the shot, but overthrew him horribly and was picked. Smith ended the day with an impressive 21 fantasy points, an astounding fifth time in 11 games that he has finished over the 20-point mark. He's an incredibly maddening player. But it was actually kind of awesome how much of a bomber he allowed himself to be in Week 12. I'd just love to see that continue, but don't trust that it will.


• The Green Bay Packers officially saw enough of Scott Tolzien, whom they benched in the third quarter Sunday. Tolzien did offer up a twirling TD run from inside the Minnesota Vikings' 5, but was suboptimal with his throwing and decision-making. Matt Flynn saved the Pack's bacon thereafter, rallying for a kiss-your-sister tie, and assuming Aaron Rodgers doesn't play on Thanksgiving (and for the moment, that's my assumption), Flynn will almost certainly be under center.

• I still love Tavon Austin's open-field ability. I still wouldn't touch him in my fantasy playoffs. Austin scored on a 50-yard run on the St. Louis Rams' first drive. He also got a target in the general vicinity of the end zone later in the game. But two catches for 39 yards is two catches for 39 yards. The Rams want to play super-run-heavy these days, making none of their wide receivers attractive in fantasy. (Kellen Clemens had 10 completions Sunday. Bleh.)

• Geno Smith has one TD and 10 INTs in his past six games, and 18 INTs overall, which puts him on pace for 26. That would tie Jay Cutler's '09 season for second-most since '01, behind only Brett Favre's 29 in '05. Which isn't good at all.
 

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Free-agent finds for Week 13

By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

Waiver-wire news changes fast and furious throughout the week, as injuries and depth-chart shenanigans overtake us. So be sure to follow me on Twitter, @CHarrisESPN, and I'll keep you updated as news warrants. Let's get to Week 13's best fantasy roster additions:

Standard ESPN League Finds


Benny Cunningham, RB, St. Louis Rams (owned in 0.7 percent of ESPN leagues): At this point in the season, the waiver wire is mostly about reacting to injuries. Cunningham plays behind rookie sensation Zac Stacy, who had to leave Sunday's win because of a concussion. If Stacy can't play in Week 13 against the San Francisco 49ers, Cunningham figures to start, though he'd likely find the sledding quite a bit tougher than he did versus the Chicago Bears. This undrafted rookie out of Middle Tennessee was unknown to me before he made the Rams' roster this summer, but he missed time early in the season with a high-ankle sprain. On tape, Cunningham looks like a Brandon Jackson type, which is kind of my category of RB who has something in all areas but who doesn't particularly excel in anything (above-average but not elite size, decent quicks, maybe a little more speed than you expect but nothing extraordinary). He's an attractive add only if Stacy is going to miss time, but you might not know that conclusively before your league's waiver period. Don't break the bank.

Brandon Bolden, RB, New England Patriots (2.5 percent): OK, I lied, not all waiver moves in late November are about injuries. Sometimes they're about fumbling. Stevan Ridley lost another one Sunday night, and nobody knows what the ramifications will be. LeGarrette Blount initially came in for Ridley, but he too lost a fumble plus seemed to be knocked out on the play. So the job of early-down back fell to Bolden, who responded with 14 touches for 69 yards and a goal-line TD. The only Pats RB who seems "safe" right now is Shane Vereen, but Vereen didn't fare particularly well when handed the ball in Week 12, with 10 carries for 31 yards and a goal-line stuff. The bottom line is that nobody knows what to expect from this backfield in Week 13 in a winnable matchup against the Houston Texans. I think Bolden is addable in the name of being a Patriots backfield completist, but I'd have a hard time starting anyone but Vereen on Sunday. However, Bolden does probably have more allure for the rest of the season than does Cunningham.

Bilal Powell, RB, New York Jets (35.9 percent): As of this writing, the results of Chris Ivory's MRI were unknown, which means the attractiveness of Powell is thoroughly uncertain. Ivory definitely hurt an ankle Sunday but was able to continue in a limited role, which could mean that he'll be OK for Sunday's nice matchup against the Miami Dolphins. But given Ivory's history of missed playing time, I wouldn't be shocked to find him absent for that game, and that would give Powell a leg up on being the waiver add of the week. No, I don't find Powell to be an overly talented guy, but he's a smart player who can get valuable work when things go right, and things tend to go right for RBs facing Miami. But if Ivory doesn't miss time, Powell stays on the waiver wire.

Nate Burleson, WR, Detroit Lions (3.4 percent): Matthew Stafford's first interception Sunday very well might've been Burleson's fault; he sat down on a route and Stafford appeared to expect him to keep going. But it's a good sign that eight of Burleson's 10 targets came after this play. The fact is that the Lions need reliable wideouts, especially in the middle of the field, and now that he's healthy Burleson is the best they've got. You're probably not getting much action deep from Burleson; his long speed has abandoned him, and he's running almost entirely underneath routes. But Stafford throws it 42 times a game! Especially in a PPR league, Burleson is a must-add for WR-needy squads, and frankly even in a standard-scoring league, I'd view him as a borderline top-30 option most weeks.


Rod Streater, WR, Oakland Raiders (6.1 percent): The Raiders play the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving, which means Denarius Moore will have a short week to get ready after missing Week 12 with a shoulder injury. Streater has shone as Matt McGloin's top option, with 17 targets and 11 catches over his past two games, for 177 total yards and a TD. Streater also took a nasty fall late in Week 12 against the Tennessee Titans, though he was able to return. I don't think Streater loses all his fantasy value if Moore is pronounced healthy enough to play, but he probably goes back to being a deep-league option only under such a scenario.

C.J. Anderson, RB, Denver Broncos (0.1 percent): As is the case with Cunningham, Bolden and Powell, Anderson's fantasy relevance hinges on the starter's fate. Knowshon Moreno carried it 37 times for 224 yards Sunday night, giving him a ridiculous 61 totes in his past two games. Not coincidentally, Moreno also limped off the field with an injured foot, though he was eventually able to soldier through in overtime. Early word is that Moreno has a severe bone bruise, which would mean suiting up for Week 13 versus the Kansas City Chiefs will be a matter of pain tolerance, and when that's the case, guys tend to suit up. But if Moreno can't go, Anderson -- an undrafted rookie out of Cal -- could be a big part of the game plan. Montee Ball lost another fumble in Week 12, and one wonders if his team can trust him. Anderson has a wafer-thin pro résumé and he also fumbled (but didn't lose it) against the Pats. So far in seven NFL carries he's looked like nothing particularly special. My guess is Anderson stays irrelevant for the rest of the year, but if the cards fall right for him, he could get meaningful carries in Week 13.

Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers (12.0 percent): My friend and colleague Adam Schefter reported that Crabtree will definitely play in Week 13 versus the Rams, though of course nobody really knows what kind of snap-count limitation he'll labor under. A torn Achilles is no small thing, especially for a wideout; it's not that I worry about Crabtree's speed because laser wheels aren't his game. But change of direction is important, and odds are that Crabtree -- who tore that Achilles on May 21 -- won't have full explosion on his leg right away. Almost no matter what, I'm not starting him on a fantasy team until I see what he looks like. But as a bench stash, he's attractive. If by chance he bucks his diagnosis and is ready to be himself, we should remember he ended last season on a run of eight games (including playoffs) where he averaged 103 yards receiving per game and posted seven TDs.

Miami Dolphins Defense (18.4 percent): It's not like Geno Smith hasn't produced good games in his rookie year. In fact, he's scored 20-plus fantasy points on three occasions. But his past six games have been ugly, with one TD pass and 10 INTs. He also hasn't exceeded 159 yards passing in a game since Week 7. All this is by way of saying: If you can buy into the defense that gets to face Smith in Week 13, you should maybe think about doing that. The fly in the ointment is a worry that Ivory gets right, and he and Powell run through what's been a pretty soft run D. But that's a chance an owner who's been streaming defenses probably has to take.

Other solid waiver adds, about whom I've written in previous weeks: Josh McCown, QB, Bears (6.6 percent); Dennis Johnson, RB, Texans (0.4 percent); Donald Brown, RB, Colts (36.1 percent); Percy Harvin, WR, Seahawks (45.4 percent); Kendall Wright, WR, Titans (38.7 percent); John Carlson, TE, Vikings (1.4 percent); Delanie Walker, TE Titans (29.5 percent); Rob Housler, TE, Cardinals (2.5 percent); Heath Miller, TE, Steelers (14.7 percent); Garrett Graham, TE, Texans (32.3 percent).

Deeper-League Finds


Carson Palmer, QB, Arizona Cardinals (10.2 percent): Palmer's shelf life as a viable fantasy option may last just one more week, as the Cardinals play an underwhelming Philadelphia Eagles defense in Week 13. After that, the sledding gets tougher (STL, @TEN, @SEA, SF), and my guess is that Palmer will go back to being an interception-happy chucker. Still, after throwing a pick in each of his first nine contests, Palmer has now been solid in back-to-back weeks, not tossing any interceptions while producing four passing TDs and 733 yards through the air. Maybe I'm wrong about him. Maybe he'll become a surprise fantasy star in the December fantasy playoffs. Deep-leaguers are forgiven for adding him with that possibility in mind.

Mike Gillislee, RB, Miami Dolphins (0.6 percent): Daniel Thomas was carted off with an ankle injury Sunday and initial reports indicate he'll miss the rest of the season with torn ligaments. This is favorable news for Lamar Miller owners, who've been frustrated with a platoon: Since the team's Week 6 bye, Miller has 64 carries while Thomas has 50 (and Thomas has found the end zone twice, while Miller has no TDs). As a result of Thomas' injury, one supposes that the rookie Gillislee could see his first action of the season; he's been a healthy scratch for 11 straight games. While I was bullish on Gillislee before April's draft and will be interested to see if the combination of decent speed, fine elusiveness and tough pass protection that I liked will translate, it would probably be too optimistic to believe he'll jump into Thomas' role. It would take some stumbles from Miller for Gillislee to be a fantasy option. But such a stumble is possible.

Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Minnesota Vikings (3.8 percent): Here comes the first of two University of Tennessee rookie wideouts who'll get some justifiable love heading into Week 13. Patterson has mostly been a kickoff returner so far in '13, but his speed leaps off the game tape, and Sunday he finally found himself on the field for most of his team's offensive snaps. He's pretty much got two routes: run straight down the field, or stand there and catch a WR screen. But when the ball is in his hands, he's dangerous.


Justin Hunter, WR, Titans (0.6 percent): Hunter has been a bigger part of the Titans' offensive lineup for longer than Patterson, but he's also in more of a strict rotation than Patterson was Sunday. Basically just as raw as his Volunteers teammate with as much (if not more) freaky athletic ability, Hunter made himself known with TDs in back-to-back games in September, but it wasn't until Sunday that he started to look dangerous on a regular basis. (He had six catches for 109 yards and a TD.) The issue with young, raw WRs like Hunter and Patterson is that while they're probably going to make a couple more highlight-reel plays during the rest of the season, they'll also probably disappear for multiple games, making it impossible to know when to start them.

Mike Glennon, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5.8 percent): Glennon deserves a mention. He's been just fine, but realize this: During his team's improved play in a 3-1 stretch, the Bucs' offense has relied less on the pass. During his first four starts, Glennon chucked it an average of 45 times. In his past four, he's averaged 22 attempts per game. Now, obviously, some of that is circumstance: You need to throw more when you're losing big. But this identity is now something Tampa believes about itself and will likely keep pursuing as long as it can. And that means while Glennon has saved his fantasy days with some big plays here and there, his small workload probably means expecting 20-plus fantasy-point games is folly.

Other solid waiver adds for deep-leaguers, about whom I've written in previous weeks: Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Titans (3.8 percent); Case Keenum, QB, Texans (32.8 percent); Matt McGloin, QB, Raiders (0.8 percent); Chris Ogbonnaya, RB, Browns (15.6 percent); Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers (3.5 percent); Mike Tolbert, RB, Panthers (20.2 percent); Kenbrell Thompkins, WR, Patriots (40.0 percent); Aaron Dobson, WR, Patriots (11.7 percent); Julian Edelman, WR, Patriots (27.5 percent); Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks (14.9 percent); Kenny Stills, WR, Saints (28.5 percent); Santonio Holmes, WR, Jets (20.8 percent); Rishard Matthews, WR, Dolphins (5.9 percent); Kris Durham, WR, Lions (0.6 percent); Brandon LaFell, WR, Panthers (5.8 percent); Ted Ginn, WR, Panthers (4.0 percent); Jerricho Cotchery, WR, Steelers (27.5 percent); Dennis Pitta, TE, Ravens (0.5 percent); Timothy Wright, TE, Buccaneers (2.2 percent); Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Lions (29.8 percent).
 

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Consistency Ratings: Week 13

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

Tough times have arrived for the Kansas City Chiefs' defense.

Both of their outside linebackers, Tamba Hali (ankle) and Justin Houston (dislocated elbow), exited Week 12 early with injuries, and are likely to enter Week 13 with questionable listings. Houston, who is third in the league in sacks (11), is unlikely to play, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter.


As a unit, the Chiefs' D/ST totaled minus-8 fantasy points the past two weeks combined, tied with the San Diego Chargers' D/ST (minus-8 in Weeks 2-3) for the second-worst consecutive-weeks total in the NFL (the Atlanta Falcons, with minus-9 in Weeks 10-11, were worst). They are only the sixth team in the league to have finished in the red in consecutive weeks; they joined the Chargers, Falcons, Jacksonville Jaguars (Weeks 3-4 and 7-8), Minnesota Vikings (Weeks 11-12) and New York Giants (Weeks 2-3). If you've been tracking the seasonal fantasy point totals, you know that the Giants rank the highest, at No. 23, and the other four comprise the bottom four.

And the Chiefs now face the rematch of that most dreaded matchup on their schedule: The Denver Broncos, the worst matchup for an opposing D/ST (using fantasy points allowed to date).

They also have a Week 17 road game at the Chargers, which is the third-worst matchup for a D/ST using those same metrics.

D/ST strategy has been a popular question between chats and Twitter the past few weeks, with common inquiries going something like this: "Knowing the Chiefs' difficult remaining schedule, who would you ride the rest of the year, them or so-and-so?"

I've been adamant in my stance that streaming defenses is as legitimate a strategy as standing behind one, and frankly, "riding a D/ST" seems like a lazy strategy. The reason is that if you examine three of the top four at the position in fantasy scoring to date, there's at least one terrifying matchup left on their schedule. Let's take a look …

Kansas City Chiefs: Remaining schedule: DEN, @WSH, @OAK, IND, @SD. As Hali and Houston have played major parts in this team's defensive rebirth, their health will be critical in influencing their chances beyond that treacherous Week 13 matchup.

Seattle Seahawks: Remaining schedule: NO, @SF, @NYG, ARI, STL. The New Orleans Saints are the game's second-worst matchup for a D/ST and the San Francisco 49ers 11th-worst, so these won't be the easiest next two games. The Seahawks are also without cornerbacks Brandon Browner and Walter Thurmond, losses that while not devastating, improve Drew Brees' odds for this coming Monday night. That Saints game is the worst matchup the Seahawks face in 2013.

Carolina Panthers: Remaining schedule: TB, @NO, NYJ, NO, @ATL. If the Seahawks' schedule is scary because it has an upcoming game against the Saints, what does that make the Panthers' schedule? Granted, the other three matchups are outstanding for fantasy purposes, but there might not be a D/ST in the league with a schedule at such polar extremes as this one.

[h=4]CONSISTENCY RATINGS BENCHMARKS[/h]Using 2013 statistics, and fantasy points determined by ESPN's standard scoring, the charts contained in this column rate players based upon how consistently reliable they are. To familiarize you with some of the terminology:
Start: The number of times that the player's point total in a given week was worthy of having had him active in an ESPN standard league.
Stud: The number of times the player's point total ranked among the top at his position.
Stiff: The number of times the player's point total ranked among the worst at his position, making almost any waiver-wire option a smarter choice.
These are the benchmarks for what constitutes a "Start," "Stud" or "Stiff" performance, numbers identifying the player's rank at his position:
<CENTER>Start</CENTER><CENTER>Stud</CENTER><CENTER>Stiff</CENTER>
QBTop 10Top 221st+
RBTop 25Top 551st+
WRTop 25Top 551st+
TETop 10Top 221st+
KTop 10Top 221st+
D/STTop 10Top 221st+

<THEAD>
</THEAD><TBODY>
</TBODY>
Sat: The number of times the player missed a game. Players are not charged "Stiff" points for sitting out, but it hurts their overall Consistency Rating.
%: The player's overall Consistency Rating, calculated as number of "Start" performances divided by scheduled team games.



I don't cite this intending to instill flat-out fear in owners of these D/ST, just that even those who own one of these top-four units to at least give a requisite glance at your league's free-agent list to consider quality streamer fill-ins for those tougher weeks. For example, I'll most certainly have the Cleveland Browns, who host the Jacksonville Jaguars, ranked ahead of both the Chiefs and Seahawks.

The reason is that, using the consistency metrics discussed weekly in this space, it makes quite a bit more sense to pick your starting D/ST by matchup over talent, so long as the gap in talent between the two isn't massive. Let's split out D/ST statistics by quarters -- specifically top-eight and bottom-eight D/ST matchups, using fantasy points allowed to the position -- to illustrate this:

All D/STs versus eight most favorable matchups:
88 games, 17 "Starts," one "Stud," 45 "Stiffs," 19.3 percent Consistency Rating. These teams have averaged 10.92 fantasy points in these weeks.

All D/STs versus eight least favorable matchups:
88 games, 50 "Starts," 16 "Studs," eight "Stiffs," 56.8 percent Consistency Rating. These teams have averaged 3.38 fantasy points in these weeks.

Comparing those numbers to the 2013 overall Consistency Ratings listed at column's end, that 56.8 percent Consistency Rating for the latter group is higher than that of any individual D/ST except the 49ers, Panthers, Seahawks and Cincinnati Bengals, which speaks volumes about the importance of matchups at the position. Here's something else to consider: The top eight D/STs this season in terms of total fantasy points scored have a 59.1 percent Consistency Rating and have averaged 10.53 points per game.

To take a different angle, let's consider the reliability of "good" D/STs (in this case, the top eight in total fantasy points for the season) versus bad matchups, and "bad" D/STs (bottom eight in fantasy points) versus good matchups.

Top 8 D/STs versus eight least favorable matchups:
16 games, four "Starts," zero "Studs," seven "Stiffs," 25.0 percent Consistency Rating. These teams have averaged 5.75 points per game.

Bottom 8 D/STs versus eight most favorable matchups:
19 games, 8 "Starts," one "Stud," four "Stiffs," 42.1 percent Consistency Rating. These teams have averaged 7.95 points per game.

Keep in mind that the latter group has averaged 3.82 fantasy points per game against all opponents for the season, so we're talking about a significant gain for the least talented defenses in the league when the matchup dictates. Most fantasy owners won't ever have to dig so deep as to pick up, say, the 30th-ranked Minnesota Vikings for a one-week play. More likely, they're going to find a team like my aforementioned Browns, available in more than 80 percent of ESPN leagues and ranked 11th in points for the season, out there to exploit that advantageous Jaguars matchup.

And that's really the point here: If you're stuck with an elite D/ST with a brutal matchup and a middling D/ST with a super-soft matchup is out there for the taking, make the swap every time.

To give you a head start, here are some in-advance picks for upcoming weeks:

Week 13: Browns (JAC), Buffalo Bills (ATL), Dallas Cowboys (OAK).
Week 14: Houston Texans (@JAC), Oakland Raiders (@NYJ).
Week 15: Bills (@JAC), New Orleans Saints (@STL), New England Patriots (@MIA).
Week 16: Browns (@NYJ), Broncos (@HOU), Bills (MIA).
Week 17: Tennessee Titans (HOU), Patriots (BUF), Dolphins (NYJ).

[h=3]Consistency Ratings chart[/h]
Players are initially ranked in order of their Consistency Rating, calculated as the percentage of the player's scheduled games -- not games played, scheduled games -- in which his fantasy point total registered a "Start" score. All categories are sortable both ascending and descending; just click on the headers to sort.

Players must have at least a 25.0 percent Consistency Rating in either standard scoring or PPR leagues for inclusion in the chart. All defense/special teams are included, regardless of whether they met those minimums.

These statistics are for 2013 only. Statistics for games since 2010 can be found here.

<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>
Player<CENTER>Team</CENTER><CENTER>%</CENTER><CENTER>Pos</CENTER><CENTER>G</CENTER><CENTER>Start</CENTER><CENTER>Stud</CENTER><CENTER>Stiff</CENTER><CENTER>Sat</CENTER><CENTER>PPR%</CENTER>
Jamaal CharlesKC100.0%RB111150090.9%
Matt ForteChi90.9%RB111040090.9%
LeSean McCoyPhi90.9%RB111040081.8%
Drew BreesNO81.8%QB11940081.8%
Eddie LacyGB81.8%RB10921181.8%
Alfred MorrisWsh81.8%RB11900072.7%
Adrian PetersonMin81.8%RB11950072.7%
Knowshon MorenoDen81.8%RB11950072.7%
Peyton ManningDen72.7%QB11840072.7%
Matthew StaffordDet72.7%QB11810072.7%
Fred JacksonBuf72.7%RB11810072.7%
Marshawn LynchSea72.7%RB11840072.7%
49ers D/STSF72.7%D/ST11812072.7%
Demaryius ThomasDen72.7%WR11830072.7%
Calvin JohnsonDet72.7%WR10842172.7%
Antonio BrownPit72.7%WR11820072.7%
Julius ThomasDen72.7%TE10831163.6%
Frank GoreSF72.7%RB11820063.6%
Brandon MarshallChi72.7%WR11820063.6%
Chris JohnsonTen72.7%RB11810063.6%
Wes WelkerDen63.6%WR11702072.7%
Jimmy GrahamNO63.6%TE11762072.7%
Reggie BushDet63.6%RB10730172.7%
DeMarco MurrayDal63.6%RB9710272.7%
Jordan CameronCle63.6%TE11714063.6%
Panthers D/STCar63.6%D/ST11731063.6%
Jordy NelsonGB63.6%WR11710063.6%
A.J. GreenCin63.6%WR11722063.6%
Seahawks D/STSea63.6%D/ST11710063.6%
Russell WilsonSea63.6%QB11702063.6%
Bengals D/STCin63.6%D/ST11722063.6%
Stephen GostkowskiNE63.6%K11731063.6%
Maurice Jones-DrewJac63.6%RB11710063.6%
Le'Veon BellPit63.6%RB8700363.6%
Dez BryantDal63.6%WR11732054.5%
Ryan MathewsSD63.6%RB11711054.5%
Zac StacyStL63.6%RB9712245.5%
Danny WoodheadSD54.5%RB11621081.8%
Giovani BernardCin54.5%RB11610072.7%
Pierre ThomasNO54.5%RB11620072.7%
Antonio GatesSD54.5%TE11603063.6%
Andre JohnsonHou54.5%WR11613063.6%
DeSean JacksonPhi54.5%WR11622063.6%
Chiefs D/STKC54.5%D/ST11632054.5%
Garrett HartleyNO54.5%K11601054.5%
Andrew LuckInd54.5%QB11612054.5%
Robbie GouldChi54.5%K11602054.5%
Alshon JefferyChi54.5%WR11623054.5%
Steven HauschkaSea54.5%K11611054.5%
Justin TuckerBal54.5%K11622054.5%
Cowboys D/STDal54.5%D/ST11614054.5%
Rams D/STStL54.5%D/ST11624054.5%
Larry FitzgeraldAri54.5%WR11613054.5%
Coby FleenerInd54.5%TE11604054.5%
Josh GordonCle54.5%WR9621254.5%
Shaun SuishamPit54.5%K11623054.5%
Cardinals D/STAri54.5%D/ST11612054.5%
DeAngelo WilliamsCar54.5%RB11600045.5%
Greg OlsenCar54.5%TE11602045.5%
Vernon DavisSF54.5%TE10622145.5%
Torrey SmithBal45.5%WR11511054.5%
Julio JonesAtl45.5%WR5510645.5%
Arian FosterHou45.5%RB8511345.5%
Darren McFaddenOak45.5%RB7511445.5%
Aaron RodgersGB45.5%QB8512345.5%
Matt PraterDen45.5%K11512045.5%
Nick FolkNYJ45.5%K11514045.5%
Tony RomoDal45.5%QB11511045.5%
Dan BaileyDal45.5%K11524045.5%
Charles ClayMia45.5%RB11511045.5%
Victor CruzNYG45.5%WR11522045.5%
Bears D/STChi45.5%D/ST11505045.5%
Browns D/STCle45.5%D/ST11503045.5%
Dan CarpenterBuf45.5%K11512045.5%
Philip RiversSD45.5%QB11511045.5%
Jay FeelyAri45.5%K11522045.5%
Jason WittenDal45.5%TE11524045.5%
Nick NovakSD45.5%K11524045.5%
Saints D/STNO45.5%D/ST11501045.5%
Alex SmithKC45.5%QB11503045.5%
Jarrett BoykinGB45.5%WR11505045.5%
Rashad JenningsOak45.5%RB11524045.5%
Cam NewtonCar45.5%QB11533045.5%
Denarius MooreOak45.5%WR10501136.4%
Stevan RidleyNE45.5%RB10511136.4%
Andre EllingtonAri45.5%RB11512036.4%
Eddie RoyalSD45.5%WR11514036.4%
Martellus BennettChi45.5%TE11512036.4%
Rashard MendenhallAri45.5%RB10501136.4%
Terrance WilliamsDal45.5%WR11514027.3%
Rueben RandleNYG45.5%WR11514027.3%
Pierre GarconWsh36.4%WR11410045.5%
Joique BellDet36.4%RB11421045.5%
Brandon BoldenNE36.4%RB8402345.5%
Kendall WrightTen36.4%WR11401045.5%
Dwayne BoweKC36.4%WR11404045.5%
Doug MartinTB36.4%RB6400536.4%
Matt RyanAtl36.4%QB11401036.4%
Mason CrosbyGB36.4%K11423036.4%
Titans D/STTen36.4%D/ST11412036.4%
Lamar MillerMia36.4%RB11403036.4%
Kyle RudolphMin36.4%TE8404336.4%
Mike TolbertCar36.4%RB11403036.4%
Ryan SuccopKC36.4%K11405036.4%
Patriots D/STNE36.4%D/ST11401036.4%
Raiders D/STOak36.4%D/ST11403036.4%
T.Y. HiltonInd36.4%WR11424036.4%
Vincent JacksonTB36.4%WR11434036.4%
Adam VinatieriInd36.4%K10432136.4%
Robert Griffin IIIWsh36.4%QB11413036.4%
Giants D/STNYG36.4%D/ST11415036.4%
Harry DouglasAtl36.4%WR11424036.4%
Golden TateSea36.4%WR11415036.4%
Bills D/STBuf36.4%D/ST11423036.4%
Mike NugentCin36.4%K11403036.4%
Nick FolesPhi36.4%QB8423336.4%
Doug BaldwinSea36.4%WR11403036.4%
Broncos D/STDen36.4%D/ST11412036.4%
Colin KaepernickSF36.4%QB11423036.4%
Mike WallaceMia36.4%WR11415036.4%
Sebastian JanikowskiOak36.4%K11416036.4%
Graham GanoCar36.4%K11414036.4%
Ravens D/STBal36.4%D/ST11412036.4%
Keenan AllenSD36.4%WR10402136.4%
Emmanuel SandersPit36.4%WR11403036.4%
Blair WalshMin36.4%K11413036.4%
Steelers D/STPit36.4%D/ST11414036.4%
Phil DawsonSF36.4%K11413036.4%
Greg ZuerleinStL36.4%K11413036.4%
Buccaneers D/STTB36.4%D/ST11412036.4%
Anquan BoldinSF36.4%WR11424036.4%
Texans D/STHou36.4%D/ST11402036.4%
Rob GronkowskiNE36.4%TE5420636.4%
Jermichael FinleyGB36.4%TE6412527.3%
Daniel ThomasMia36.4%RB11404027.3%
Ben TateHou36.4%RB11401027.3%
Marvin JonesCin36.4%WR11416027.3%
James JonesGB36.4%WR9403227.3%
Michael FloydAri36.4%WR11412027.3%
Marlon BrownBal36.4%WR9404218.2%
Jerricho CotcheryPit36.4%WR11413018.2%
Jacquizz RodgersAtl27.3%RB11322045.5%
Ray RiceBal27.3%RB10312145.5%
Reggie WayneInd27.3%WR7301436.4%
Eric DeckerDen27.3%WR11322036.4%
Steve SmithCar27.3%WR11301036.4%
Bilal PowellNYJ27.3%RB11301036.4%
Darren SprolesNO27.3%RB10322136.4%
Jordan ReedWsh27.3%TE9312236.4%
Tony GonzalezAtl27.3%TE11312036.4%
Donald BrownInd27.3%RB11313036.4%
Delanie WalkerTen27.3%TE11313036.4%
Brandon LaFellCar27.3%WR11305036.4%
Timothy WrightTB27.3%WR11307036.4%
Riley CooperPhi27.3%WR11336036.4%
Julian EdelmanNE27.3%WR11316036.4%
Jared CookStL27.3%TE11315036.4%
Randall CobbGB27.3%WR5300627.3%
Jason SnellingAtl27.3%RB9313227.3%
Jay CutlerChi27.3%QB8302327.3%
Matt SchaubHou27.3%QB7304427.3%
Colts D/STInd27.3%D/ST11315027.3%
Trent RichardsonInd27.3%RB11300027.3%
Jake LockerTen27.3%QB7302427.3%
Ted GinnCar27.3%WR11306027.3%
Packers D/STGB27.3%D/ST11314027.3%
David AkersDet27.3%K11315027.3%
Lions D/STDet27.3%D/ST11304027.3%
Josh BrownNYG27.3%K11314027.3%
Dolphins D/STMia27.3%D/ST11312027.3%
Chargers D/STSD27.3%D/ST11304027.3%
James StarksGB27.3%RB8313327.3%
Kenbrell ThompkinsNE27.3%WR10305127.3%
Geno SmithNYJ27.3%QB11307027.3%
Marques ColstonNO27.3%WR10303127.3%
Kenny StillsNO27.3%WR11316027.3%
Sam BradfordStL27.3%QB7301427.3%
Rian LindellTB27.3%K11304027.3%
Rod StreaterOak27.3%WR11304027.3%
Chris OgbonnayaCle27.3%RB11303027.3%
Chris IvoryNYJ27.3%RB10303127.3%
Steve JohnsonBuf27.3%WR9302227.3%
Scott ChandlerBuf27.3%TE11307027.3%
Andy DaltonCin27.3%QB11325027.3%
C.J. SpillerBuf27.3%RB10302127.3%
Alex HeneryPhi27.3%K11314027.3%
Marquise GoodwinBuf27.3%WR7303427.3%
Caleb SturgisMia27.3%K11313027.3%
Tom BradyNE27.3%QB11325027.3%
Rob BironasTen27.3%K11303027.3%
Ryan FitzpatrickTen27.3%QB6302527.3%
Tavon AustinStL27.3%WR11318027.3%
Andre BrownNYG27.3%RB3300827.3%
Aaron DobsonNE27.3%WR10314118.2%
Dallas ClarkBal27.3%TE11306018.2%
Garrett GrahamHou27.3%TE11316018.2%
BenJarvus Green-EllisCin27.3%RB11301018.2%
Brent CelekPhi27.3%TE11307018.2%
Donnie AveryKC27.3%WR11306018.2%
Jermaine KearseSea27.3%WR1130709.1%
Brandon PettigrewDet27.3%TE1130309.1%
Cecil ShortsJac18.2%WR11203054.5%
Roy HeluWsh18.2%RB11212027.3%
DeAndre HopkinsHou18.2%WR11205027.3%
Shane VereenNE18.2%RB3210827.3%
Vikings D/STMin18.2%D/ST11216018.2%
Redskins D/STWsh18.2%D/ST11213018.2%
Jets D/STNYJ18.2%D/ST11203018.2%
Eagles D/STPhi18.2%D/ST11204018.2%
Jaguars D/STJac18.2%D/ST11207018.2%
Heath MillerPit9.1%TE9103227.3%
Falcons D/STAtl9.1%D/ST1110609.1%

<THEAD>
</THEAD><TBODY>
</TBODY>


 

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[h=1]Instant Impressions for Week 13[/h][h=3]Gordon, Decker, Jeffery all have huge games; Tate, Spiller finally step up[/h]By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

Eric Decker grins at your uncertainty.

You're allowed to be impressed with Josh Gordon's second straight massive output. Against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, Gordon was sitting on nine grabs for 166 yards and a TD, which would've been a tremendous day considering it looked for a time that he'd been knocked out with a possible concussion. And then Gordon topped it off with a 95-yard TD that momentarily gave the Cleveland Browns a lead. But as good as Gordon's day was, most sane fantasy owners were hopefully already starting him no matter what.

That wasn't necessarily the case with Decker. He'd spent the past four games tormenting his fantasy owners, culminating in Week 12, when he caught one of four targets for 5 yards. From Weeks 8 to 12, Decker caught a combined 13 passes for 170 yards and no scores. Sunday, he had eight catches for 174 yards and four TDs. Unfortunately, many of his fantasy owners' faith had wavered. If you benched Decker, it's tough to blame you. Clearly, the Denver Broncos' plan involved picking on rookie Kansas City Chiefs corner Marcus Cooper, who continually let Decker get behind him, but it was tough to know that beforehand. I suppose the lesson is that none of Peyton Manning's primary weapons should ever be counted out. (I'm looking at you, Wes Welker owners, who are frustrated by Welker's current four-game skid of a combined 18 catches for 162 yards and no TDs.)

Remember: Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @CHarrisESPN for more analysis during the week. For now, let's look at Sunday's other top storylines:


• Not to be outdone by his wide receiver brethren, Chicago's Alshon Jeffery pulled a nutty in Week 13: 12 grabs on 15 targets for 249 yards and two scores. (Bears wideout Brandon Marshall had nine targets, five catches, 45 yards and no TDs.) Jeffery's first TD was a relatively short pass in which he simply exploded up the field, outrunning the Minnesota Vikings' secondary for an 80-yard score. The second TD was a bomb down the left side that Jeffery had no business catching except he somehow did, dragging his body across the goal line and tapping his toes in bounds. (Heck, maybe the day should've been better: Jeffery had 234 yards receiving by the third quarter, and this Chicago Bears game went into overtime!) Anyway, I'm not ready to say this represents a changing of the guard; I'll still have Marshall rated ahead of Jeffery in Week 14. But Jeffery is absolutely knocking on the top-10 door right now. He can still have quiet days if Marshall really has it going, but he's had nine fantasy points or more in seven of his past nine contests. That's elite production.

• See that, Ben Tate owners? There was nothing to worry about after all. A week after several poor first-quarter results got Tate benched in favor of Dennis Johnson, Tate was solid (if unspectacular) against a bad New England Patriots run defense. Tate carried it 22 times for 102 yards and looked powerful from in close on all three of his TDs. (Granted, you could've driven a truck through the hole on all three TDs, but still.) Meanwhile, Johnson played purely to spell Tate, and touched it just four times. The Jags aren't a pushover matchup for Tate on Thursday night; after all, it was Jacksonville that stuffed him early in Week 12, which led to his benching. But you can bet that'll be on Tate's mind. I ranked him as a high-end No. 2 back Sunday, and that's what he'll remain for the first round of the fantasy playoffs.

• C.J. Spiller just keeps putting his fantasy owners in the torture chamber. Coming out of a Week 12 bye, the assumption was that Spiller's injured ankle would finally be healthy, and he sprung a 77-yard run in the first quarter, only to be tripped up from behind on the dead run by Desmond Trufant. (He lost the opportunity for a short TD rush to EJ Manuel on that possession.) Two touches later, Spiller came hobbling out of the game and looked for all the world as though he'd miss the rest of the contest because of his ankle problem, but he re-entered and in the fourth quarter got around the right side for a 36-yard TD scamper. His final numbers in an overtime loss: 15 carries for 149 yards and two catches on four targets for 8 yards. Fred Jackson was just as involved, with 15 touches for 78 total yards, a 4-yard rushing score and a TD reception, plus he played on third downs. I guess we just keep using these guys in Week 14 against a tougher Tampa Bay Buccaneers rush defense. But will it surprise anyone when Spiller shows up on the injury report this week?


• Let's maybe not get out the anointing oil for Donald Brown just yet. He was stuck on eight carries for 8 yards before the Indianapolis Colts' late fourth-quarter drive. Then, fortunately for those who started him, Brown took over, racking up 46 yards on six carries. It almost backfired for Brown, as his heavy workload on that crucial drive caused him to need a blow, allowing Trent Richardson to get a tote from the Tennessee Titans' 4. But T-Rich predictably got stuffed, and Brown scored on the next play. Richardson did convert a fourth-and-1 in this game in Titans territory, but overall had only five carries and zero targets. This is a legit depth-chart reshuffling. Richardson is now droppable in all leagues. How could you feel good about using him in your fantasy playoffs?

• It was a pretty good day for Lamar Miller, all things considered. He was facing an elite New York Jets run defense and his 14 first-half carries produced only 30 yards, but he did show some life on a few of those totes. It took garbage time for Miller to rack up some better stats: He had 24 yards on six carries after the game's outcome was no longer in question, which helped him get to 72 yards on 22 carries overall. There was frustration for sure: Mike Gillislee got a carry inside the Jets' 5 followed by Charles Clay getting one (neither scored, and on fourth down from the 1, Ryan Tannehill overthrew Clay), and on that last garbage-time drive, Miller was initially ruled in the end zone but replay (correctly) reversed the call. Yet without Daniel Thomas in the mix, Miller was finally a true feature back. Entering the fantasy playoffs, Miller will play Pittsburgh (away), New England (home), Buffalo (away) and the Jets (home). Only that Jets rematch looks truly daunting.

• The production continues to be there for Nick Foles. I ranked him No. 9 among QBs this week, so I'm complicit in this thing we're all seeing. But any objective observer has to admit that mirrors are involved. A couple of times Sunday he did his thing where he throws it up in the air deep into double coverage and once again didn't get burned. He also threw what would've been his first interception of the season on an awful toss late over the middle in the fourth quarter, which would've breathed life into the Arizona Cardinals, but Tyrann Mathieu was called for a super-shaky defensive holding call away from the play. Still, the bottom line is that box scores are what you care about, and his box scores continue to be good; Sunday he went 21-of-34 for 237 yards, three TDs and zero INTs. Foles has had a way of throwing the ball late over the middle into bracket coverage, but shooting into the super-tight window just beyond a linebacker's outstretched fingertips. (He victimized Daryl Washington like that multiple times Sunday.) I watch a lot of film, and don't see many QBs make those kinds of attempts week-to-week and not throw picks. So far, Foles has avoided them. Here's hoping he keeps it going. His schedule: Detroit (home), Minnesota (away), Chicago (home) and Dallas (away) -- looks quite favorable.

• How did it go for the Patriots' offensive madness? Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski remained trustworthy. Everyone else? Who the heck knows? Stevan Ridley was a healthy scratch because of his continued fumbling problems. Brandon Bolden got the start as the team's early-down back, but only wound up with three carries for 2 yards. LeGarrette Blount had a decent first-quarter series, and after that took over, winding up with 12 carries for 44 yards (meh!) and a rumbling TD (yay!). Shane Vereen scored his first TD of the season, on a 9-yard catch, and also got 10 carries but was only able to produce 38 yards on them. (He did have 37 receiving yards.) You should probably stay away from everyone here, except maybe Vereen in a PPR league. Adding to the confusion, Julian Edelman saw 12 targets to Danny Amendola's five, continuing a trend that restarted in Week 12. Does this mean Edelman is now more valuable than Amendola? I guess. I'm not sure. The Pats change things up so much week to week, it's hard to promise anything. I guess use Edelman next week if you're feeling adventurous. But it won't be a shock if he disappears off the stat sheet once more.


• Ah, stability. After a couple of weeks of masquerading as a controlled QB, Carson Palmer played like Carson Palmer. He fumbled early and then threw a bad pick in the first quarter. He saw Rob Housler commit a horrendous drop that would've kept an important drive going. He threw into double coverage but had Larry Fitzgerald make a sweet grab and then accept a hit and stay on his feet to score his ninth TD of the season. He found a wide-open Michael Floyd for another TD. But he misfired on a deep shot, underthrowing Andre Roberts and allowing Cary Williams to pick him off. Palmer's fantasy day looks OK almost through sheer force of will (and volume): 24-of-41 for 302 yards, five sacks, three TDs and two picks. But in ESPN parlance, his QBR was 27.8. And that seems about right. Palmer is never dull, but he's a wild man, and sometimes it bites him and the Cardinals.

• DeAngelo Williams was inactive because of a lingering quad injury. How did Jonathan Stewart perform versus the Bucs in D-Willy's absence? Honestly, he looked slow. There was a second-quarter carry inside the Tampa 10 in which it appeared there was a flash of daylight and Stewart saw it, but he couldn't get through it quickly enough, and was tackled. Mike Tolbert subsequently came in, and that was the pattern: Tolbert played in almost all high-leverage situations. (Kenjon Barner played a bit, too.) Stewart touched it 16 times Sunday, but is still way, way off the playoff fantasy radar, regardless of Williams' status.

• Roddy White came to life Sunday, with a fairly sweet stat-sheet performance: 10 grabs on 14 targets for 143 yards. I'll admit I saw very little of his day in real time, and look forward to dissecting the tape to see what White really looked like. You can bet we'll talk about it on the Fantasy Underground podcast on Tuesday.


• The Jets had 39 total yards of offense in the first half. Geno Smith was benched at halftime. These two facts are related.

• After two straight games in which Chris Ogbonnaya was their lead back, the Browns returned to Willis McGahee, who led the team in backfield snaps. McGahee made his fantasy day early in the first quarter by converting a 1-yard TD. Obie also got looks from in close, and Fozzy Whittaker is involved, but the bottom-line message here is you can't count on any of these guys.

• Brandon Weeden suffered a concussion Sunday and Jason Campbell suffered one last week, which leaves the Browns' QB situation up in the air for Week 14. So far as I know, Alex Tanney, whom Cleveland signed off the Dallas Cowboys' practice squad last week, is the only other QB currently on the Browns' roster. Obviously, for those of us relying on Josh Gordon, this is a significant issue. Christian Ponder also was concussed and lifted for Matt Cassel. Delanie Walker left in the first quarter with his own concussion. And both Julius Thomas and Jordan Reed were unable to suit up Sunday, Thomas because of lingering knee troubles, and Reed because he felt headaches related to his own concussion in warm-ups.

• You want to kill your own momentum, Colts? Right after Robert Mathis gets a sack/forced fumble, line up and give a reverse to Darrius Heyward-Bey. (DHB lost 11 yards on the play.) Heyward-Bey had already committed offensive pass interference, and on Indy's next possession, committed the week's worst drop in the open field deep in Titans territory. Nice.
 

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Free-agent finds for Week 14

By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

Waiver-wire news changes fast and furious throughout the week, as injuries and depth-chart shenanigans overtake us. So be sure to follow me on Twitter, @CHarrisESPN, and I'll keep you updated as news warrants. Let's get to Week 14's best fantasy roster additions:

Standard ESPN League Finds


Donald Brown, RB, Indianapolis Colts (owned in 39.8 percent of ESPN leagues): If you're in your league's fantasy playoffs, hopefully your backfield is comprised of solid options. But in a year where many early-round RBs have been felled by injuries or ineffectiveness, it's quite possible some squads have gotten by on QB, WR and TE play, and are still casting around for a solution at RB. I hesitate to promise that Brown can be that guy, but he's probably the best option available in more than half of ESPN leagues. In Week 13, Brown played 47 offensive snaps compared to 12 for Trent Richardson. My embarrassment over endorsing the Richardson trade to Indy notwithstanding, I have to admit that Brown has been a superior option to T-Rich, and deserves what may be his final chance with the Colts. (He'll be a free agent in 2014.) Now, Brown was stuck on eight carries for 8 yards before Indy's final drive, and his matchup against the Tennessee Titans was more enticing than Week 14 against the Cincinnati Bengals, but last week's kind of RB workload doesn't grow on trees. Brown is the best add around for the RB-needy.

Michael Crabtree, WR, San Francisco 49ers (17.6 percent): Crabtree was well nigh invisible for three quarters Sunday, committing two penalties on the Niners' first drive and failing to connect on a deep shot. But he shook open for a 60-yard gain down the right sideline late in the third, sparking the belief that he can be himself for the stretch drive. Seeing him at top speed was encouraging; Crabtree was never the fastest guy, but he scooted pretty good getting behind Trumaine Johnson on his big gain. Most important, he played 39 offensive snaps out of a possible 62. Only Anquan Boldin (46 snaps) played more among San Francisco WRs. At this point, there's no doubt that Crabtree needs to be added in every league under the sun. Can you use one big play as an excuse to start him Week 14 against the Seattle Seahawks? I don't think that would be wise. But a couple more "escapability" runs like Sunday's, and I'll change my tune right quick.

Julian Edelman, WR, New England Patriots (30.2 percent): Edelman's breakout the past two weeks comes with a whole litany of asterisks. In Week 12 versus the Denver Broncos, he was matched up on Kayvon Webster, and Tom Brady apparently wanted to pick on Webster. In Week 13 versus the Houston Texans, Aaron Dobson was inactive and Kenbrell Thompkins took a hard fall early in the game, which meant there were significant pass routes for both Edelman and Danny Amendola. Plus Edelman's is a history of stuffed stat sheets followed by empty weeks. Look no further than the difference between Edelman's first four games (34 catches, 319 yards and 2 TDs) and his second four (14 catches, 143 yards and 0 TDs). But the man has seen 23 targets over the past two weeks, fifth most among all WRs in that span. It's now fair to wonder if the production we expected from Amendola actually now belongs to Edelman. I'll tell you this: I'm going to have Edelman ranked ahead of Amendola for Week 14 versus the Cleveland Browns, though neither guy will be a must-start.


Ladarius Green, TE, San Diego Chargers (0.9 percent): I resisted the temptation to make Green an "all-league" add after Weeks 11 and 12, as he racked up 161 receiving yards and a TD. That was because in Week 11, he played only 20 snaps, and in Week 12, he played 28. With Antonio Gates playing 62 snaps in each of those games, it just didn't seem advisable to hope for production on Green's limited routes. But things changed in Week 13 against the Bengals. Gates still played 58 snaps and ran 36 routes, which is a full workload. But Green played 57 snaps and ran 35 routes. That's legit, and it's the kind of usage that belies his two meager grabs. Maybe the Chargers simply viewed Cincy as particularly vulnerable against two-TE sets, but maybe the team realizes Green is a unique, dare I say young-Gates-esque weapon who gives the team a better chance to win, and needs to be on the field. I can't elevate Green into my top 10 TEs for your first playoff game this week, but he'll be in the top 20 for sure, with room for improvement throughout December. Perhaps we're seeing the birth of a killer TE tandem in Southern California.

Oakland Raiders defense (10.8 percent): This is the kind of a "paint-by-numbers" analysis I usually eschew, but starting a defense that's playing the New York Jets looks mighty wise right now. It's a little boring to pile on the Geno Smith Downtrodden Express, but I did it with a shaky-looking Miami Dolphins D/ST last week and they responded with 17 fantasy points. I don't think the Raiders are good on defense. Their pass rush has been suspect for weeks. But after five straight rancid games throwing the ball, Smith probably doesn't need to face an elite pass rush to play poorly. The Raiders do a suitable job against the run, and that will almost certainly be where the Jets seek to attack. There are no sure things when it comes to bad teams on the road, but if I'm streaming, the Raiders are my pickup.

Other solid waiver adds, about whom I've written in previous weeks: Josh McCown, QB, Bears (15.3 percent); Kendall Wright, WR, Titans (41.1 percent); Nate Burleson, WR, Lions (21.6 percent); Rod Streater, WR, Raiders (6.7 percent); John Carlson, TE, Vikings (1.0 percent); Delanie Walker, TE Titans (29.6 percent); Rob Housler, TE, Cardinals (2.0 percent); Heath Miller, TE, Steelers (15.8 percent); Garrett Graham, TE, Texans (29.9 percent).

Deeper-League Finds

LeGarrette Blount, RB, Patriots (4.8 percent): Oy. My best advice is don't do it. But remember the part where I said Donald Brown is a solution for playoff teams who've struggled to find RBs? In deeper leagues, that description might fit Blount. He's not good. We all know it. But the Pats offense generates goal-line chances like crazy, and Blount converted one of them Sunday. (Fullback James Develin converted another.) As long as Stevan Ridley is banished as a healthy scratch, Blount has a chance for a reasonable workload and some bunny TDs, and surprisingly he out-carried Brandon Bolden 12-3 Sunday, despite the fact that Bolden started. The likeliest scenario is that Shane Vereen's is the only role here that makes any sense, and the rest of these guys just frustrate you over the next month. But if you're desperate …

Willis McGahee, RB, Cleveland Browns and Jonathan Stewart, RB, Carolina Panthers (13.1 and 3.5 percent, respectively): Speaking of desperate! McGahee scored a short TD Sunday, and Stewart got a season-high 14 carries. But Chris Ogbonnaya continues to dominate snaps in the Browns backfield (he may have had only half of McGahee's touches, but he played 40 snaps compared to 19 for McGahee and 20 for Fozzy Whittaker), and DeAngelo Williams could return from his quad injury as soon as Week 14. Most problematic, I simply don't believe in anything I see from these guys on tape. They look slow, and are trying to accomplish everything simply by plowing straight ahead. They're each a total last resort.


Brian Hartline, WR, Miami Dolphins (34.5 percent): Hartline had nine grabs for 127 yards Sunday versus the Jets, plus took a slant through some shoddy Jets tackling for a 31-yard TD, but you know how it goes with this guy. He's had big outputs before, but he always seems to plunk right down into untrustworthiness. Miami will probably play it closer to the vest on the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers next week, and Hartline will go back to his standard five-catch, 60-yard output. In a deeper PPR league, that's worth a little something, and Hartline isn't slow, so he does give you a bit more weekly upside than your usual possession receiver. But standard-leaguers shouldn't chase his Week 13 production.

Ace Sanders, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (0.2 percent): Speaking of PPR-worthy players, here's Sanders, a rookie receiver who has become a security blanket for Chad Henne over the past three weeks, racking up 25 targets and 20 grabs in that time. I'm in a very deep PPR league, and I'm eyeing Sanders as perhaps the week's most valuable add, because I feel fairly sure he'll nab me seven or eight points. In these three weeks, Sanders has run 57 of his 83 routes (and made 10 of those 20 catches) from the slot. He's 5-foot-7 and 178 pounds, so he's nowhere close to a Justin Blackmon analog, but the work has been there for him.

Other solid waiver adds for deep-leaguers, about whom I've written in previous weeks: Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Titans (3.9 percent); Carson Palmer, QB, Cardinals (12.5 percent); Case Keenum, QB, Texans (21.2 percent); Matt McGloin, QB, Raiders (0.8 percent); Brandon Bolden, RB, Patriots (10.4 percent); Mike Tolbert, RB, Panthers (19.4 percent); Chris Ogbonnaya, RB, Browns (18.3 percent); Dennis Johnson, RB, Texans (0.9 percent); Mike Gillislee, RB, Dolphins (0.6 percent); Brandon LaFell, WR, Panthers (5.7 percent); Ted Ginn, WR, Panthers (3.9 percent); Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Vikings (5.5 percent); Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks (13.4 percent); Kenny Stills, WR, Saints (24.1 percent); Jerricho Cotchery, WR, Steelers (21.8 percent); Dennis Pitta, TE, Ravens (0.6 percent); Timothy Wright, TE, Buccaneers (2.0 percent); Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Lions (29.0 percent).
 

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Consistency Ratings: Week 14

By Tristan H. Cockcroft | ESPN.com

The quest for perfection continues.

Through 12 games, Jamaal Charles has been the most consistently start-worthy fantasy player in the game. He has ranked among the top 25 scoring running backs -- the criteria for a "Start" in this space -- in all 12 contests. In 10 of those games, he finished among the top 11 running backs in fantasy points for the week.


If his current pace holds -- and keep in mind that he's on pace for 264 total fantasy points, or 12 more than any other running back -- Charles would be the first player to post a perfect, 100 percent Consistency Rating since another Kansas City Chiefs running back, Priest Holmes, back in 2003. Charles would also become only the 12th player to manage at least a 90 percent Consistency Rating in the past 10 seasons.

That's not to say that Charles' 2013 campaign has him on track for a season among the all-time greats. That 264-point pace, for instance, would rank only 70th among running backs since 1960. It'd also place him 136 points behind the pace of the 2013 overall leader, Peyton Manning. And here's the key difference between Charles and Holmes: Holmes' 2003 campaign, the fourth best since 1960 among running backs (359) saw him notch 11 "Stud" (a top-five weekly score) performances.

I'm always a fan of the history of the game, and Holmes' 11 Stud scores are one of the most remarkable feats of the 21st century. Four players have managed to be "Studs" -- top-five weekly running backs -- at least 10 times in a season since 2000:

LaDainian Tomlinson, 2006, 12 times: He had a 87.5 percent Consistency Rating (14 "Starts" in his 16 games), en route to the single-season fantasy points record (410).

Holmes, 2003, 11: He's the only player since 1998 to be a perfect 16-for-16 in "Starts."

Marshall Faulk, 2000, 10: He had an 81.3 percent Consistency Rating despite missing two games (13 "Starts" in 14 games played), en route to the second-best fantasy point total among running backs since 1960 (365).

Arian Foster, 2010, 10: He had an 87.5 percent Consistency Rating (14 "Starts" in 16 games), and he scored 313 fantasy points for the season.

Though Charles' five Stud performances in 2013 give him no mathematical chance of joining that group, his value this season has been his consistent production, a critical thing during the fantasy playoffs. Even as his Chiefs have fallen into a recent funk, his production hasn't waned: He had the week's second- and 10th-best fantasy point totals among running backs in Weeks 12 and 13, totaling 44 points.

Even better, Charles doesn't face a single bottom-eight running back matchup the remainder of the regular season (@WSH, @OAK, IND, @SD), and against all that group -- meaning the 24 most favorable matchups -- since 2010, he's 35-for-43 in terms of Starts (81.4 percent Consistency Rating), with 23 top-10 performances and 12 "Stud" (top-five) efforts. It's one heck of a year for him.

[h=4]CONSISTENCY RATINGS BENCHMARKS[/h]Using 2013 statistics, and fantasy points determined by ESPN's standard scoring, the charts contained in this column rate players based upon how consistently reliable they are. To familiarize you with some of the terminology:
Start: The number of times that the player's point total in a given week was worthy of having had him active in an ESPN standard league.
Stud: The number of times the player's point total ranked among the top at his position.
Stiff: The number of times the player's point total ranked among the worst at his position, making almost any waiver-wire option a smarter choice.
These are the benchmarks for what constitutes a "Start," "Stud" or "Stiff" performance, numbers identifying the player's rank at his position:
<CENTER>Start</CENTER><CENTER>Stud</CENTER><CENTER>Stiff</CENTER>
QBTop 10Top 221st+
RBTop 25Top 551st+
WRTop 25Top 551st+
TETop 10Top 221st+
KTop 10Top 221st+
D/STTop 10Top 221st+

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Sat: The number of times the player missed a game. Players are not charged "Stiff" points for sitting out, but it hurts their overall Consistency Rating.
%: The player's overall Consistency Rating, calculated as number of "Start" performances divided by scheduled team games.



[h=3]Feasting upon the weak[/h]
A few weeks back, we examined in this space the players who perform the best facing the most challenging matchups. What about the flip side of that argument, the players with the greatest history of success facing the softest matchups?

Success during the fantasy postseason relies not only upon trusting your most talented players, it's also about exploiting any matchup advantage possible. So today, using data since the beginning of 2010, let's identify the 10 most productive players facing top-eight positional matchups. For this exercise, we'll use "Stud" rather than "Start" scores, and set a minimum of five such matchups. Here we go:

LeSean McCoy: 11 Stud performances in 12 matchups (91.7 percent)
Michael Vick: 6 Studs in 7 matchups (85.7 percent)
Maurice Jones-Drew: 9 Studs in 11 matchups (81.8 percent)
DeMarco Murray: 4 Studs in 5 matchups (80.0 percent)
Adrian Peterson: 12 Studs in 15 matchups (80.0 percent)
Brandon Marshall: 10 Studs in 13 matchups (76.9 percent)
Ryan Mathews: 6 Studs in 8 matchups (75.0 percent)
Arian Foster: 11 Studs in 15 matchups (73.3 percent)
Drew Brees: 9 Studs in 13 matchups (69.2 percent)
Julio Jones: 4 Studs in 6 matchups (66.7 percent)
Roddy White: 10 Studs in 15 matchups (66.7 percent)

Vick, Foster and Jones, naturally, aren't of any help to fantasy owners now, but Murray and White are two names that stand out.

Consider that Murray has two more matchups against defenses that rank among the top eight in fantasy points allowed to running backs: the Chicago Bears (third; road game in Week 14) and Washington Redskins (second; road game in Week 16). The Green Bay Packers (home game in Week 15), meanwhile, rank 10th and have allowed 144 points to running backs in their past six games combined. Though the perception might not be as such, Murray makes a compelling case for a weekly RB1 -- or a clear-cut top-10 option at his position -- in every one of his four remaining matchups.

White, meanwhile, has only one more matchup against a top-eight defense (using fantasy points allowed to wide receivers): Week 14 at the Packers, who rank eighth against the position. However, his Week 15 represents another favorable matchup -- his Atlanta Falcons host the 10th-ranked Redskins -- and he's coming off a Week 13 during which he had more targets (14) and catches (10) than he has had in any game since Week 16 of the 2011 season. For at least these next two weeks, White should be a low-end WR2, and there's every reason to believe he might rank, at worst, among the top 25 scorers at his position in each remaining week.

[h=3]Consistency Ratings chart[/h]
Players are initially ranked in order of their Consistency Rating, calculated as the percentage of the player's scheduled games -- not games played, scheduled games -- in which his fantasy point total registered a "Start" score. All categories are sortable both ascending and descending; just click on the headers to sort.

Players must have at least a 25.0 percent Consistency Rating in either standard scoring or PPR leagues for inclusion in the chart. All defense/special teams are included, regardless of whether they met those minimums.

These statistics are for 2013 only. Statistics for games since 2010 can be found here.

<STYLE type=text/css>.mod-inline td img {margin: 0px;}</STYLE>
Player<CENTER>Team</CENTER><CENTER>%</CENTER><CENTER>Pos</CENTER><CENTER>G</CENTER><CENTER>Start</CENTER><CENTER>Stud</CENTER><CENTER>Stiff</CENTER><CENTER>Sat</CENTER><CENTER>PPR%</CENTER>
Jamaal CharlesKC100.0%RB121250091.7%
Matt ForteChi91.7%RB121140091.7%
LeSean McCoyPhi91.7%RB121140083.3%
Alfred MorrisWsh83.3%RB121000075.0%
Adrian PetersonMin83.3%RB121060075.0%
Knowshon MorenoDen83.3%RB121050075.0%
Drew BreesNO75.0%QB12941075.0%
Eddie LacyGB75.0%RB11921175.0%
Peyton ManningDen75.0%QB12950075.0%
Fred JacksonBuf75.0%RB12910075.0%
49ers D/STSF75.0%D/ST12912075.0%
Demaryius ThomasDen75.0%WR12930075.0%
Calvin JohnsonDet75.0%WR11952175.0%
Chris JohnsonTen75.0%RB12910066.7%
Jimmy GrahamNO66.7%TE12862075.0%
Reggie BushDet66.7%RB11840175.0%
DeMarco MurrayDal66.7%RB10820275.0%
Matthew StaffordDet66.7%QB12810066.7%
Marshawn LynchSea66.7%RB12840066.7%
Antonio BrownPit66.7%WR12820066.7%
Panthers D/STCar66.7%D/ST12831066.7%
A.J. GreenCin66.7%WR12822066.7%
Seahawks D/STSea66.7%D/ST12810066.7%
Russell WilsonSea66.7%QB12812066.7%
Bengals D/STCin66.7%D/ST12822066.7%
Stephen GostkowskiNE66.7%K12831066.7%
Maurice Jones-DrewJac66.7%RB12810066.7%
Le'Veon BellPit66.7%RB9800366.7%
Julius ThomasDen66.7%TE10831258.3%
Frank GoreSF66.7%RB12820058.3%
Brandon MarshallChi66.7%WR12821058.3%
Dez BryantDal66.7%WR12832058.3%
Ryan MathewsSD66.7%RB12811058.3%
Wes WelkerDen58.3%WR12703066.7%
Andre JohnsonHou58.3%WR12713066.7%
Jordan CameronCle58.3%TE12715058.3%
Jordy NelsonGB58.3%WR12711058.3%
Alshon JefferyChi58.3%WR12733058.3%
Steven HauschkaSea58.3%K12711058.3%
Justin TuckerBal58.3%K12732058.3%
Larry FitzgeraldAri58.3%WR12713058.3%
Josh GordonCle58.3%WR10731258.3%
Greg OlsenCar58.3%TE12702050.0%
Vernon DavisSF58.3%TE11722150.0%
Zac StacyStL58.3%RB10712241.7%
Danny WoodheadSD50.0%RB12621075.0%
Giovani BernardCin50.0%RB12610066.7%
Pierre ThomasNO50.0%RB12621066.7%
Antonio GatesSD50.0%TE12604058.3%
DeSean JacksonPhi50.0%WR12623058.3%
Torrey SmithBal50.0%WR12611058.3%
Chiefs D/STKC50.0%D/ST12633050.0%
Garrett HartleyNO50.0%K12602050.0%
Andrew LuckInd50.0%QB12613050.0%
Robbie GouldChi50.0%K12602050.0%
Cowboys D/STDal50.0%D/ST12614050.0%
Rams D/STStL50.0%D/ST12624050.0%
Coby FleenerInd50.0%TE12604050.0%
Shaun SuishamPit50.0%K12624050.0%
Cardinals D/STAri50.0%D/ST12612050.0%
Charles ClayMia50.0%RB12611050.0%
Alex SmithKC50.0%QB12603050.0%
Rashad JenningsOak50.0%RB12624050.0%
Cam NewtonCar50.0%QB12633050.0%
DeAngelo WilliamsCar50.0%RB11600141.7%
Victor CruzNYG41.7%WR12522050.0%
Joique BellDet41.7%RB12521050.0%
Julio JonesAtl41.7%WR5510741.7%
Arian FosterHou41.7%RB8511441.7%
Darren McFaddenOak41.7%RB8512441.7%
Aaron RodgersGB41.7%QB8512441.7%
Matt PraterDen41.7%K12513041.7%
Nick FolkNYJ41.7%K12515041.7%
Tony RomoDal41.7%QB12511041.7%
Dan BaileyDal41.7%K12524041.7%
Bears D/STChi41.7%D/ST12506041.7%
Browns D/STCle41.7%D/ST12503041.7%
Dan CarpenterBuf41.7%K12512041.7%
Philip RiversSD41.7%QB12512041.7%
Jay FeelyAri41.7%K12523041.7%
Jason WittenDal41.7%TE12524041.7%
Nick NovakSD41.7%K12525041.7%
Saints D/STNO41.7%D/ST12502041.7%
Jarrett BoykinGB41.7%WR12506041.7%
Titans D/STTen41.7%D/ST12512041.7%
Raiders D/STOak41.7%D/ST12503041.7%
Adam VinatieriInd41.7%K11542141.7%
Robert Griffin IIIWsh41.7%QB12513041.7%
Giants D/STNYG41.7%D/ST12515041.7%
Nick FolesPhi41.7%QB9523341.7%
Doug BaldwinSea41.7%WR12503041.7%
Mike WallaceMia41.7%WR12515041.7%
Graham GanoCar41.7%K12514041.7%
Emmanuel SandersPit41.7%WR12503041.7%
Blair WalshMin41.7%K12513041.7%
Phil DawsonSF41.7%K12513041.7%
Anquan BoldinSF41.7%WR12524041.7%
Rob GronkowskiNE41.7%TE6530641.7%
Dolphins D/STMia41.7%D/ST12522041.7%
Denarius MooreOak41.7%WR10501233.3%
Stevan RidleyNE41.7%RB10511233.3%
Andre EllingtonAri41.7%RB11512133.3%
Eddie RoyalSD41.7%WR11514133.3%
Martellus BennettChi41.7%TE12513033.3%
Rashard MendenhallAri41.7%RB11501133.3%
Ben TateHou41.7%RB12511033.3%
Michael FloydAri41.7%WR12512033.3%
Terrance WilliamsDal41.7%WR12515025.0%
Rueben RandleNYG41.7%WR12515025.0%
Pierre GarconWsh33.3%WR12411050.0%
Kendall WrightTen33.3%WR12401050.0%
Brandon BoldenNE33.3%RB9403341.7%
Dwayne BoweKC33.3%WR12404041.7%
Harry DouglasAtl33.3%WR12424041.7%
Keenan AllenSD33.3%WR11402141.7%
Eric DeckerDen33.3%WR12432041.7%
Tony GonzalezAtl33.3%TE12412041.7%
Donald BrownInd33.3%RB12413041.7%
Julian EdelmanNE33.3%WR12416041.7%
Doug MartinTB33.3%RB6400633.3%
Matt RyanAtl33.3%QB12401033.3%
Mason CrosbyGB33.3%K12423033.3%
Lamar MillerMia33.3%RB12403033.3%
Kyle RudolphMin33.3%TE8404433.3%
Mike TolbertCar33.3%RB12403033.3%
Ryan SuccopKC33.3%K12406033.3%
Patriots D/STNE33.3%D/ST12402033.3%
T.Y. HiltonInd33.3%WR12425033.3%
Vincent JacksonTB33.3%WR12434033.3%
Golden TateSea33.3%WR12416033.3%
Bills D/STBuf33.3%D/ST12423033.3%
Mike NugentCin33.3%K12403033.3%
Broncos D/STDen33.3%D/ST12413033.3%
Colin KaepernickSF33.3%QB12423033.3%
Sebastian JanikowskiOak33.3%K12416033.3%
Ravens D/STBal33.3%D/ST12413033.3%
Steelers D/STPit33.3%D/ST12415033.3%
Greg ZuerleinStL33.3%K12413033.3%
Buccaneers D/STTB33.3%D/ST12413033.3%
Texans D/STHou33.3%D/ST12403033.3%
Brandon LaFellCar33.3%WR12405033.3%
Colts D/STInd33.3%D/ST12415033.3%
Lions D/STDet33.3%D/ST12414033.3%
C.J. SpillerBuf33.3%RB11412133.3%
Caleb SturgisMia33.3%K12413033.3%
Tom BradyNE33.3%QB12425033.3%
Andre BrownNYG33.3%RB4400833.3%
Jermichael FinleyGB33.3%TE6412625.0%
Daniel ThomasMia33.3%RB11404125.0%
Marvin JonesCin33.3%WR12417025.0%
James JonesGB33.3%WR10403225.0%
Ted GinnCar33.3%WR12406025.0%
BenJarvus Green-EllisCin33.3%RB12401025.0%
Marlon BrownBal33.3%WR10405216.7%
Jerricho CotcheryPit33.3%WR12413016.7%
Brent CelekPhi33.3%TE12407016.7%
Cecil ShortsJac25.0%WR12303058.3%
Ray RiceBal25.0%RB11312150.0%
Jacquizz RodgersAtl25.0%RB12323041.7%
Reggie WayneInd25.0%WR7301533.3%
Steve SmithCar25.0%WR12301033.3%
Bilal PowellNYJ25.0%RB12301033.3%
Darren SprolesNO25.0%RB11322133.3%
Jordan ReedWsh25.0%TE9312333.3%
Delanie WalkerTen25.0%TE12314033.3%
Timothy WrightTB25.0%WR12308033.3%
Riley CooperPhi25.0%WR12337033.3%
Jared CookStL25.0%TE12316033.3%
Shane VereenNE25.0%RB4310833.3%
Randall CobbGB25.0%WR5300725.0%
Jason SnellingAtl25.0%RB10314225.0%
Jay CutlerChi25.0%QB8302425.0%
Matt SchaubHou25.0%QB7304525.0%
Trent RichardsonInd25.0%RB12301025.0%
Jake LockerTen25.0%QB7302525.0%
Packers D/STGB25.0%D/ST12314025.0%
David AkersDet25.0%K12315025.0%
Josh BrownNYG25.0%K12314025.0%
Chargers D/STSD25.0%D/ST12304025.0%
James StarksGB25.0%RB9314325.0%
Kenbrell ThompkinsNE25.0%WR11306125.0%
Geno SmithNYJ25.0%QB12308025.0%
Marques ColstonNO25.0%WR11304125.0%
Kenny StillsNO25.0%WR12317025.0%
Sam BradfordStL25.0%QB7301525.0%
Rian LindellTB25.0%K12304025.0%
Rod StreaterOak25.0%WR12304025.0%
Chris OgbonnayaCle25.0%RB12303025.0%
Chris IvoryNYJ25.0%RB11303125.0%
Steve JohnsonBuf25.0%WR10303225.0%
Scott ChandlerBuf25.0%TE12308025.0%
Andy DaltonCin25.0%QB12326025.0%
Alex HeneryPhi25.0%K12314025.0%
Marquise GoodwinBuf25.0%WR8304425.0%
Rob BironasTen25.0%K12304025.0%
Ryan FitzpatrickTen25.0%QB7302525.0%
Tavon AustinStL25.0%WR12319025.0%
Brian HartlineMia25.0%WR12311025.0%
Matt BryantAtl25.0%K12302025.0%
Josh ScobeeJac25.0%K12306025.0%
Zach MillerSea25.0%TE10304225.0%
Eagles D/STPhi25.0%D/ST12304025.0%
Brandon MyersNYG25.0%TE12307025.0%
Steven JacksonAtl25.0%RB8312425.0%
Josh McCownChi25.0%QB6302625.0%
Ryan TannehillMia25.0%QB12301025.0%
Aaron DobsonNE25.0%WR10314216.7%
Dallas ClarkBal25.0%TE12307016.7%
Garrett GrahamHou25.0%TE12317016.7%
Donnie AveryKC25.0%WR12307016.7%
LeGarrette BlountNE25.0%RB12305016.7%
Montee BallDen25.0%RB12304016.7%
Jermaine KearseSea25.0%WR1230808.3%
Brandon PettigrewDet25.0%TE1230408.3%
Heath MillerPit16.7%TE10203233.3%
Roy HeluWsh16.7%RB12212025.0%
DeAndre HopkinsHou16.7%WR12205025.0%
Nate WashingtonTen16.7%WR12215025.0%
Vikings D/STMin16.7%D/ST12217016.7%
Redskins D/STWsh16.7%D/ST12213016.7%
Jets D/STNYJ16.7%D/ST12204016.7%
Jaguars D/STJac16.7%D/ST12207016.7%
Falcons D/STAtl8.3%D/ST1210708.3%

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hacheman@therx.com
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Messages
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[h=1]Fantasy hints from next-level data[/h][h=3]Brian Hartline is a strong waiver wire option for the stretch run[/h]By Ken Daube | Special to ESPN.com

Finding a player on the waiver wire at this junction of the season who may actually improve your team is nearly impossible. Usually, if you are going to find something useful this late in the season, it occurs because you snagged someone coming back from an injury whom other owners either bailed on (Nate Burleson) or didn't want to take a chance on (Michael Crabtree).
However, looking into the target data below, there's another option -- a player who is available in nearly two-thirds of ESPN.com standard leagues, and hasn't been injured this season -- Brian Hartline.
Hartline is averaging 8.4 targets per game and currently ranks 26th in fantasy points for all wide receivers. That doesn't make Hartline an elite option, but it's probably higher than what your perception of him is.
It's safe to say that most people view Hartline like their backup plan for the prom rather than anyone they truly wanted to bring to the dance. But when that backup plan starts producing like Hartline has, it's time to wonder if more games like Sunday's -- when he beat the New York Jets for 127 yards and a touchdown -- might be possible in the near future.

[h=3]On target[/h]
Receiving yardage is the most variable form of yardage, which makes sense because so much of it is dependent on where the quarterback elects to throw the ball. Because of this, variations in the number of times a player is targeted by his quarterback can greatly change a player's value. So while your receiver may have scored 10 fantasy points this weekend, you need to know whether it's reasonable to expect that he can repeat that type of performance on a routine basis. If a receiver had one target that he turned into a 40-yard touchdown, you need to realize that he was one quarterback decision away from posting a goose egg. Conversely, if your wideout had 12 targets and finished with 108 yards receiving, his prospects for consistent fantasy production are significantly greater.
Below, you'll see all of the players who are averaging eight or more targets in their past four games, and how many of those targets were on plays that began in the red zone during Week 13.
Note: Targets are not an official NFL statistic. Based on the methodology that stat services use, the number of targets listed may be different than target values listed elsewhere. ESPN Stats & Information's philosophy is to count a target when the analyst thinks the pass was actually intended for the player. Therefore, if a quarterback is obviously throwing a ball away, the analyst will not record a target for that pass. This gives a truer representation of what a target is -- a pass thrown to a particular player, with the intent for that player to catch the ball -- and therefore should be more helpful to the fantasy community.

[h=3]Fantasy insights based on data through Week 13[/h]

<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Week 13 Targets Report[/h]
PlayerTargets*RZ
Josh Gordon15.00
Calvin Johnson13.02
Alshon Jeffery12.50
Brandon Marshall10.81
Pierre Garcon10.81
Antonio Brown10.30
Andre Johnson10.00
Brian Hartline10.02
Kendall Wright9.80
Rob Gronkowski9.70
Shane Vereen9.73
D. Thomas9.50
Dwayne Bowe9.02
Julian Edelman9.03
Steve Johnson9.02
Garrett Graham8.82
Keenan Allen8.80
Torrey Smith8.82
A.J. Green8.70
Dez Bryant8.72
Roddy White8.70
Anquan Boldin8.52
Harry Douglas8.52
Larry Fitzgerald8.51
Charles Clay8.31
Coby Fleener8.31
Mike Wallace8.31
T.Y. Hilton8.30
Jimmy Graham8.01
* Target data presented here is average number of targets through the past four games

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• You might think that the loss of Reggie Wayne would mean more red zone targets for Coby Fleener. It really hasn't. Since Week 9, Fleener has as many red zone targets (four) as his teammates Darrius Heyward-Bey and LaVon Brazill, neither of whom really instill fear into opponents.
• After scoring only two touchdowns on 17 targets last season in the red zone, Calvin Johnson has seven such touchdowns in 24 attempts this season. Yes, the best is getting better.
• Eric Decker converted almost 46 percent (11-of-24) of his red zone targets last season into touchdowns. Despite his awesome stat line against the Kansas City Chiefs, Decker has only five touchdowns on 15 red zone targets this season. With Julius Thomas nearing a return, there's no reason to expect Decker to have anywhere close to a repeat of his Sunday performance at any point for the remainder of the year.
• After being targeted 10 times in his first game back from injury, Nate Burleson saw no targets on Thanksgiving against the Green Bay Packers. He did run 25 routes, so he was on the field plenty; Matthew Stafford simply looked elsewhere.
• If Michael Crabtree is somehow available in your league, execute a waiver claim on him immediately. Crabtree posted a solid fantasy day Sunday despite running only 21 routes, on which he drew four targets. In 2012, Crabtree was targeted on about one of every three routes he ran. Look for Crabtree's targets to progress weekly and for him to become an elite option quickly.

[h=3]Big plays and up close[/h]
There were eight NFL players who totaled three or more rushes that gained 10 or more yards each. They were: Adrian Peterson (8), Reggie Bush (5), Robert Griffin III (4), Ryan Fitzpatrick (3), Montee Ball (3), Matt Forte (3), Jamaal Charles (3) and Bobby Rainey (3).
Meanwhile, there were 11 players with at least two carries from their opponent's 5-yard line or closer. They were: DeMarco Murray (3), Le'Veon Bell (3), Nick Foles (3), Rashad Jennings (3), Fitzpatrick (3), Steven Jackson (3), Andy Dalton (2), Joique Bell (2), Lamar Miller (2), Marshawn Lynch (2) and Mike Tolbert (2). Foles, Dalton, Miller, Lynch and Tolbert all failed to convert at least one of these carries into six points; the others were successful at least once.
Peterson has 17 rushes for 10 yards or more since Week 10. To put that into perspective, that's two more than Ryan Mathews and three more than Chris Johnson have for the entire season, respectively.
All three of Foles' rushes inside the opponent's 5-yard line were kneel-downs to run out the clock. Nothing to see in those stats.
Since Week 8, Ball is averaging 5.33 yards per rush to Knowshon Moreno's 4.01. Most of the difference between the two during that span comes after contact, as Ball is gaining 1.10 more yards per rush after contact than Moreno.

[h=3]Red zone play-calling chart[/h]
Below is a listing of the percentage of run/pass plays each team has executed this season in the red zone. Pass plays are defined as any play in which the quarterback attempted a pass or was sacked, and all other plays are deemed as a rush.


<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]Red Zone Play-Calling Chart[/h]
TeamSnapsPassRush
Denver Broncos13757%43%
New England Patriots13646%54%
Green Bay Packers12253%47%
Kansas City Chiefs12053%47%
Atlanta Falcons11865%35%
St. Louis Rams11658%42%
San Diego Chargers11561%39%
Pittsburgh Steelers11467%33%
Detroit Lions11361%39%
Chicago Bears11159%41%
Seattle Seahawks10942%58%
Carolina Panthers10935%65%
Baltimore Ravens10555%45%
Buffalo Bills10435%65%
Tennessee Titans10244%56%
San Francisco 49ers10235%65%
Washington Redskins10156%44%
New Orleans Saints9858%42%
Philadelphia Eagles9749%51%
Cleveland Browns9762%38%
Minnesota Vikings9651%49%
Indianapolis Colts9260%40%
Jacksonville Jaguars9165%35%
Houston Texans9052%48%
Miami Dolphins8657%43%
Dallas Cowboys8657%43%
Cincinnati Bengals8555%45%
Arizona Cardinals8060%40%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers7965%35%
New York Giants7958%42%
Oakland Raiders7844%56%
New York Jets6850%50%

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hacheman@therx.com
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Messages
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[h=1]Players with best scoring chances[/h][h=3]Eric Decker rising among WRs, Marshawn Lynch tops RBs entering Week 14[/h]By Mike Clay | Pro Football Focus

With 13 weeks of the 2013 NFL regular season in the books, it's time for our weekly look at our alternative to red zone data: opportunity-adjusted touchdowns (OTD).
If you're new to the stat, be sure to check out our introduction to rushing and receiving OTD. The OTD metric weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity.
Week 13 saw Eric Decker rack up four touchdowns on his way to pacing the league in receiving OTD. He's now second on the Broncos in the category, but it might surprise you who sits just ahead of him (hint: It's not a Thomas). That -- and much more -- is addressed below in our OTD rundown heading into Week 14.
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[h=3]Receiving[/h]
Note: Receiving OTD is based on the player's distance from the end zone when he is targeted -- not the line of scrimmage. This allows us to better weigh throws into the end zone.

<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Receiving OTD leaders after Week 13[/h]
RkReceiverTargTD2013 OTDWk 13 OTD
1Calvin Johnson1271211.80.9
2Larry Fitzgerald9398.20.7
3Brandon Marshall12098.20.4
4Alshon Jeffery10957.70.5
5A.J. Green12577.00.4
6Dez Bryant11296.80.6
7Torrey Smith10046.71.5
8Vernon Davis65106.20.1
9Josh Gordon10776.11.3
10Jordy Nelson8875.80.0
11Andre Johnson12555.80.1
12Wes Welker9995.70.0
13Pierre Garcon12735.70.4
14Vincent Jackson11955.60.1
15Cecil Shorts11325.60.4
16Eric Decker9775.51.9
17Jimmy Graham102125.40.8
18Antonio Brown11965.40.4
19Martellus Bennett6855.30.0
20Jason Witten8165.10.0
21Julian Edelman9945.10.4
22Kenbrell Thompkins6945.10.1
23T.Y. Hilton9655.00.1
24DeSean Jackson9074.90.4
25Joseph Fauria1964.90.4
26Tony Gonzalez8754.90.4
27Victor Cruz10544.80.1
28Michael Floyd8344.70.6
29Jordan Cameron8654.60.2
30Greg Olsen6854.60.1
31Demaryius Thomas103104.50.1
32Aaron Dobson6544.40.0
33Emmanuel Sanders9044.31.0
34Hakeem Nicks7504.20.0
35Jerricho Cotchery5584.20.8
36Austin Pettis4944.20.1
37Julius Thomas62104.00.0
38Denarius Moore7053.90.0
39Coby Fleener6943.90.2
40DeAndre Hopkins7023.80.1

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<!-- end inline 1 -->This should come as no surprise, considering his four-touchdown afternoon, but Decker (5.5) paced the entire NFL with a 1.9 receiving OTD in Week 13. Decker hauled in three of four end zone targets and took the other touchdown in from 4 yards out. Decker is 5-of-8 on end zone targets this season after going 6-of-17 in 2012. He's quietly second on the Broncos in receiving OTD, trailing only Wes Welker (5.7). Demaryius Thomas (4.5) has an inflated touchdown total of 10 thanks to scores on catch-and-run plays from distances of 17, 36, 37 and 77 yards out.
Calvin Johnson (11.8) continues to dominate receiving OTD, extending his season lead to 3.6 points over No. 2 Larry Fitzgerald (8.2). Remember last season, when Johnson caught only two of 16 end zone targets? He already has seen an NFL-high 21 end zone looks in 2013, and he has converted six into TDs. Johnson's other six touchdowns are from distances of 1, 3, 4, 15, 35 and 63 yards.
Fitzgerald, as mentioned, has quietly worked his way up to No. 2 in the category. End zone targets are, of course, the best way to score touchdowns, and Fitzgerald also sits second in that department with 18. He has caught six for TDs. Michael Floyd (4.7) continues to impress, but Fitzgerald remains Carson Palmer's favorite target near the end zone.

<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]Jimmy Graham's TD conversion rate from varying distances vs. NFL, 2013[/h]
End Zone Distance (yards)Conv. Rate (NFL)Conversion Rate (Graham)
037.0%80%
323.1%50%
614.5%100%
810.3%100%
109.9%50%
135.7%50%
153.7%50%
321.4%100%

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<!-- end inline 2 -->Jimmy Graham (5.4) is an interesting case study, as the 6.6 gap between his OTD and his actual touchdown output (12) is highest in the NFL. Incredibly, Graham has been targeted while in the end zone only five times this season. He has caught four of those targets. It's fair to wonder whether the low end zone target number is an outlier, but Graham saw only seven in all of 2012. That came after he racked up 18 in the 2011 regular season.
The low volume of end zone looks explains the low OTD, so how is he exceeding it by such a large number? The answer is yards after catch (YAC). Graham has had to run the ball into the end zone from distances of 3 (twice), 6, 8, 10, 13, 15 and 32 yards. The chart at right shows the NFL touchdown conversion rate on targets from each of these distances. This explains Graham's gigantic TD production despite a low OTD. Graham is an elite fantasy asset (not just an elite fantasy tight end), but he's a regression candidate in the scoring department.
Rising superstars Josh Gordon (6.1) and Alshon Jeffery (7.7) stole the Week 13 headlines with a pair of mammoth games. Gordon put up 261 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 10 catches. Jeffery went for 249 yards and two TDs on 12 receptions. Jeffery's breakout game was far from a surprise if you've been following these OTD breakdowns all season.
So, how did they do it? Gordon could've had an even bigger day if he'd converted more than one of his three end zone looks (not to mention the 20 snaps he missed). He also had a catch-and-run from 78 yards out. One could say Jeffery's production is a bit more impressive, as he didn't see a single target inside 2 yards of pay dirt. The sophomore scored from 2 and 52 yards out, and he saw only one additional target within 40 yards of the end zone. On the year, Jeffery sits No. 4 in receiving OTD, and Gordon -- who missed the first two weeks of the season -- is No. 9.
Dynasty super-prospect Ladarius Green (1.3) was a near every-down player for the first time in his career in Week 13. This is important because of his high talent level, as shown by big production on a small sample of targets. There's a lot to be intrigued with here, especially if Green keeps playing a ton of snaps, but keep in mind that his two touchdowns are from distances of 13 and 45 yards out. That's not sustainable. Additionally, he has seen only two end zone targets -- a number that will need to rise if he hopes to put up TE1 production the rest of the way.
[h=3]Rushing[/h]
<!-- begin inline 3 -->[h=4]Rushing OTD leaders after Week 13[/h]
RkRusherAttTD2013 OTDWk 13 OTD
1Marshawn Lynch22499.50.9
2Jamaal Charles21998.40.8
3Fred Jackson15278.00.5
4Frank Gore20287.60.7
5Willis McGahee12327.30.6
6Le'Veon Bell15257.21.6
7Ray Rice16847.10.8
8Knowshon Moreno20296.70.3
9Adrian Peterson261106.30.6
10Eddie Lacy20765.50.0
11BenJarvus Green-Ellis17645.30.7
12DeMarco Murray14275.31.3
13Michael Bush4325.10.0
14Stevan Ridley13575.10.0
15Mike Tolbert7844.90.7
16Matt Forte21474.80.2
17Maurice Jones-Drew19454.60.3
18Reggie Bush17834.50.8
19Alfred Morris20664.40.6
20Zac Stacy16044.20.1
21LeSean McCoy23254.20.2
22Ben Tate15144.00.5
23Rashad Jennings12024.01.0
24Joique Bell10663.81.2
25Rashard Mendenhall14853.80.6
26DeAngelo Williams14423.50.0
27Pierre Thomas12113.50.2
28Brandon Bolden5433.40.0
29Danny Woodhead7723.20.0
30Brandon Jacobs5843.20.0
31Andre Brown8333.10.6
32Steven Jackson9733.11.4
33Montee Ball8833.00.1
34Daniel Thomas7733.00.0
35Arian Foster12113.00.0
36Chris Ivory12723.00.5
37Jackie Battle3512.90.0
38Darren McFadden9832.90.0
39Bernard Pierce12322.80.1
40Ryan Mathews17732.80.0

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<!-- end inline 3 -->Marshawn Lynch (9.5) continues to pace the NFL in rushing OTD. With Lynch having scored nine times on the ground this year, OTD suggests he's right where he should be. He has dominated inside the 5-yard line, converting 16 tries into eight touchdowns. That includes a 3-of-5 mark from 1 yard out. Lynch's other rushing score was a 14-yard scamper.
Michael Bush (5.1) has recorded only 43 carries this season, but Chicago's goal-line back paces the entire league in rushes from the 1-yard line (nine). He has scored on only two, however, which is the worst conversion rate in the league among backs with at least three attempts. Matt Forte (4.8), meanwhile, is 2-for-2 from 1 yard out. Although Bush is clearly vulturing scoring opportunities, Forte's heavy workload still puts him No. 16 in rushing OTD. He remains a strong RB1 play.
Le'Veon Bell (7.2) continues to rack up scoring chances in Pittsburgh. Over the past seven weeks, no player has exceeded his 5.2 rushing OTD. On the year, Bell is 4-of-12 in converting carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line. That includes a dismal 2-of-7 mark from 1 yard out. The scoring opportunities provide Bell with a high fantasy ceiling, but he'll need to execute better to maximize that potential.
Before Week 13, the closest Lamar Miller (2.5) was to the end zone when starting a carry this season was 3 yards. Even more damning, he carried the ball inside the opponent's 10-yard line just three times. The reason for this was the Dolphins' heavy usage of Daniel Thomas (3.0) once the end zone was in range. Before going down with an injury that is likely season-ending, Thomas totaled nine carries inside the 10-yard line. With Thomas out of the picture in Week 13, Miller took on a larger role, including that of goal-line back. Miller handled four carries inside the opponent's 10-yard line, including one failed conversion from 1 yard out. Charles Clay (1.1) will steal occasional goal-line work, but Miller figures to handle a bulk of the carries.
Steven Jackson (3.1) has disappointed fantasy owners this season, but scoring opportunity hasn't been the issue. Jackson is No. 15 in rushing OTD in the seven weeks he played a complete game this season. The veteran finally rewarded owners with a league-high three rushing touchdowns over the past two weeks. With a 2.0 rushing OTD in that span, he actually has exceeded expectations. Jackson is now 2-of-3 on tries from the 1-yard line. His other TD was a run from 27 yards out.
Excluding Mike James (injured reserve) and Daryl Richardson (demoted), Shane Vereen (1.5) has the highest rushing OTD among backs without a single rushing touchdown this season. Considering that he has only 35 carries over four appearances, this is worth noting as related to his value going forward. Vereen has already been asked to carry the ball from the opponent's 1-yard line twice, something only 44 other backs can say. With Stevan Ridley unlikely to play a major role because of fumble issues, Vereen is squarely on the RB1 radar.
 

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[h=1]Best, worst Week 14 matchups[/h][h=3]Alex Smith, Andre Brown among players with favorable opportunities this week[/h]By Scott Kacsmar | Football Outsiders

The fantasy playoffs have arrived for those who were fortunate to navigate the treacherous regular season, where injuries, garbage-time heroes and pure randomness can derail even the best rosters. We have increased the number of analyzed players this week to provide more help for making crucial start/sit and matchup decisions.
Here are the best and worst fantasy matchups for Week 14:
Note: references to defensive rankings for the pass and run are based on Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, explained here.
[h=3]Quarterbacks[/h]
Alex Smith (plus-4 points)

The Kansas City offense has opened things up in recent weeks. Thanks in part to his rushing value, Smith has posted at least 21 fantasy points in four of his last five games. Washington's putrid pass defense ranks 27th, so this is a great opportunity for Smith to produce big numbers while helping end the Chiefs' three-game slide.<OFFER></OFFER>

<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Players With Favorable Matchups[/h]
PosTeamName+/- Fan Pts
QBKCAlex Smith+4
QBATLMatt Ryan+4
QBHOUCase Keenum+4
QBBALJoe Flacco+4
RBNYGAndre Brown+3
QBNYGEli Manning+3
RBPITLe'Veon Bell+3
RBDALDeMarco Murray+3
RBCLEBobby Rainey+2
WRGBJordy Nelson+1
WRBALTorrey Smith+1
RBCINGiovani Bernard+1
QBCHIJosh McCown+1
WRNYGVictor Cruz+1
WRATLHarry Douglas+1
TEATLTony Gonzalez+1
WRNYGRueben Randle+1
RBATLSteven Jackson+1
RBHOUBen Tate+1
RBCARDeAngelo Williams+1
WRKCDwayne Bowe+1
RBCINBenJarvus Green-Ellis+1
WRNYGHakeem Nicks+1
TENYGBrandon Myers+1

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<!-- end inline 1 -->Matt Ryan (plus-4 points)
Some may have given up on Ryan after a recent slump, but he had his best game in more than a month against Buffalo, throwing for 311 yards. Additionally, Roddy White actually played like his old self again, which helps Ryan immensely. This week, Ryan faces the Packers, who have done a masterful job of making quarterbacks look great this season as they rank 30th against the pass.
Eli Manning (plus-3 points)
Seeing a lot of Giants on the favorable list made me think they were playing Jacksonville this week, but alas, it's the San Diego Chargers, who rank 32nd against both the pass and the run. Against quarterbacks, San Diego allows the fifth-most fantasy points. Running back Andre Brown is another great start this week.
Drew Brees (minus-6 points)
Last week, I lowered expectations for Brees and Philip Rivers against elite pass defenses. Sure enough, both performed well below par. Brees had a season-low seven fantasy points in Seattle. This Sunday, he faces the Carolina Panthers, who have the No. 3 pass defense and the top scoring defense.
Take this projection with a grain of salt, though. Since joining the Saints in 2006, Brees has been deadly in prime-time games in the Superdome. In those 19 games, he has passed for 6,048 yards, 50 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. That's an average of 318.3 passing yards and 2.6 touchdown passes per game. Brees should be able to put up good numbers Sunday night against Carolina's suspect secondary.
Andrew Luck (minus-4 points)
It's been a rough time for Luck ever since Reggie Wayne was lost for the season. Since Wayne's injury, Luck has a 39.8 Total QBR (71.9 with Wayne) and has averaged 15.6 fantasy points per game. It would be even worse if he wasn't such a good runner. But it's going to get tougher this week in Cincinnati against the AFC's best defense and the league's No. 2 pass defense. Some better options this week include Ben Roethlisberger, Josh McCown, Case Keenum and Joe Flacco.
Russell Wilson (minus-4 points)
He is this week's Lower Your Expectations pick. Yes, Wilson was fantastic at home against the Saints, but San Francisco is where he played the worst game of his NFL career (last season). Ever since that game, he's been great, but the 49ers rank sixth against the pass, and they held Wilson to 10 fantasy points in Week 2.


<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]Players With Unfavorable Matchups[/h]
PosTeamName+/- Fan Pts
QBNODrew Brees-6
QBSEARussell Wilson-4
QBINDAndrew Luck-4
QBSFColin Kaepernick-4
QBTBMike Glennon-4
RBSTLZac Stacy-2
RBTENChris Johnson-2
RBNOPierre Thomas-2
RBSDDanny Woodhead-2
RBSDRyan Mathews-2
RBOAKRashad Jennings-2
RBNODarren Sproles-2
RBOAKDarren McFadden-2
QBCARCam Newton-2
QBPITBen Roethlisberger-2
QBWASRobert Griffin-2
RBSFFrank Gore-1
RBBUFFred Jackson-1
RBJACMaurice Jones-Drew-1
RBNOMark Ingram-1
RBARIRashard Mendenhall-1
RBBUFC.J. Spiller-1
RBINDDonald Brown-1
TESFVernon Davis-1
WRTBVincent Jackson-1

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<!-- end inline 2 -->[h=3]Running backs[/h]
DeMarco Murray (plus-3 points)
The Cowboys are a fickle offense in that you'll never know when they will run for 150 yards or hand the ball off eight times in 60 minutes. They are coming off back-to-back 100-yard rushing performances for the first time this season. Murray has had at least 12 fantasy points in his last three games, including a season-high 27 on Thanksgiving. Chicago's defense is not what it used to be, ranking 28th against the run and allowing the second-most fantasy points to running backs this season. In a big game on Monday, it cannot all be on Tony Romo's shoulders, so Murray should be productive.
Count on at least one running back to go wild in this game. The only defense allowing more fantasy points to running backs than Chicago is Dallas, so Matt Forte can't wait for Monday night, either.
Le'Veon Bell (plus-3 points)
Bell is coming off arguably his best game yet, but he also suffered a concussion, so make sure he's active before starting him Sunday. Miami is one of eight defenses allowing at least 20 fantasy points per game to running backs, so in Pittsburgh, where the Steelers often try to establish the run, Bell is a good start (if healthy).
Ben Tate (plus-1 point)
He just scored three touchdowns against New England and gets Jacksonville's improving but still bad defense this week. It's a Thursday game on the road, but Tate is at least a RB2 in this matchup.
Zac Stacy (minus-2 points)
I did not like the rookie in San Francisco last week, and he finished with seven fantasy points. It's the same deal in Arizona this week; the Cardinals rank No. 4 against the run and allow the fewest fantasy points to running backs, but the most to tight ends (remember Jared Cook?).

[h=3]Wide Receivers[/h]
Torrey Smith (plus-1 point)
In the last two weeks, I highlighted Josh Gordon and Alshon Jeffery in this spot, and each had more than 200 receiving yards that week. Smith won't do that well, but he has to be licking his chops to take on the Minnesota defense (28th against the pass) that just allowed Jeffery's 249-yard game. Smith was consistent with yardage early in the season but has tapered off quite a bit. However, he's caught a touchdown in three of his last four games. He should be good for either a big-yardage game or a touchdown this week. Given that he's facing Minnesota, it could be both.

[h=3]Tight ends[/h]
Tony Gonzalez (plus-1 point) and Brandon Myers (plus-1 point)
For aforementioned reasons (bad defenses), Gonzalez (at Green Bay) and Myers (at San Diego) are both solid starts this week with touchdown potential.

[h=3]Elite players[/h]
These are the elite fantasy players for Week 14 not listed in the above tables. You will want to start these players regardless of matchup on a weekly basis.

<!-- begin inline 3 -->[h=4]Week 14 Projections for Elite Players[/h]
PosTeamNameProjPosTeamNameProj
QBDETMatthew Stafford+1WRHOUAndre Johnson+1
QBPHINick Foles+1WRPHIDeSean Jackson+1
QBNETom Brady0WRDETCalvin Johnson+1
QBDALTony Romo0WRCHIBrandon Marshall+1
QBDENPeyton Manning-2WRCHIAlshon Jeffery+1
QBSDPhilip Rivers-2WRDENDemaryius Thomas0
RBCHIMatt Forte+4WRDENWes Welker0
RBGBEddie Lacy+3WRDENEric Decker0
RBDENKnowshon Moreno+1WRDALDez Bryant0
RBSEAMarshawn Lynch0WRCLEJosh Gordon0
RBKCJamaal Charles0WRCINA.J. Green0
RBDETReggie Bush0TENERob Gronkowski0
RBMINAdrian Peterson-2TEDENJulius Thomas0
RBPHILeSean McCoy-2TENOJimmy Graham-1

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<!-- end inline 3 -->As the last few weeks have shown, any Denver player can have a monster game in any given week. Knowshon Moreno rushed for 224 yards in New England while Eric Decker caught four touchdowns in Kansas City. That's why they continue to all be listed here.
It is also impossible to not acknowledge Jeffery and Gordon as elite fantasy receivers this season. Both have posted multiple 200-yard receiving games, which has been done only five other times in NFL history, including three times in the 1960s before anyone was playing fantasy football.
 

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[h=1]Instant Impressions for Week 14[/h][h=3]Top players at two positions injured in key fantasy week[/h]By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

These are the times that try men's souls.

Thomas Paine had it right (though women's souls are pretty tried right about now, too). It's not often that the No. 1-ranked player at two different positions goes down in the same week, least of all in the fantasy playoffs. Adrian Peterson and Rob Gronkowski, two of the very best players in the NFL, each were seen writhing in pain Sunday. Peterson reportedly sprained his right foot, and though he was able put some weight on it, he was eventually carted to the locker room. (He was seen in street clothes on the sidelines late in the game.) Gronk took one of the most vicious legal shots you'll ever see from T.J. Ward, a smash on his right knee that caused Gronkowski to need a cart, too. A source told ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter on Monday morning that Gronkowski tore the ACL and MCL in his knee.

In Peterson's stead, Toby Gerhart played well. In a wild game against the Baltimore Ravens, Gerhart scored what should've been a 41-yard game-winning TD, except the Ravens and Minnesota Vikings decided to go back-and-forth with game-winning TDs like 200 times. In all, Gerhart wound up with 15 carries for 89 yards. Peterson will almost certainly be legitimately questionable for Week 15 against the Philadelphia Eagles, which makes Gerhart a viable add.

Gronk-wise, unfortunately we're looking at the nuclear option. Matthew Mulligan made one big grab in the Pats' come-from-behind victory, but he's no answer as a pass-catcher. There is no answer at TE as a pass-catcher in New England. Shane Vereen will become the most crucial of Tom Brady's weapons, but Brady himself probably will take a step back to where he was early in the season. Man.

Let's look at Sunday's other top storylines:

• The snow game in Philadelphia presented the week's weirdest environs, and the results were appropriately outlandish. LeSean McCoy set a single-game Eagles record for rushing yards in a game despite a rocky beginning (midway through the second quarter, he had 17 yards on nine carries), ending with 217 yards on 29 totes. His performance was impressive as it sounds, as Shady was ludicrously elusive while everyone else was slipping all over the place. Nick Foles threw his first interception of the season but can't really be blamed (the first-half conditions were ridiculous), and even when he didn't do much throwing it, he stretched for a 1-yard TD run. That guy just has a horseshoe lodged somewhere on his person right now.

• Going the other direction, Reggie Bush apparently reinjured his calf in pregame warmups and never played a snap. Joique Bell got a man's workload: 27 touches for 127 total yards. But Matthew Stafford was a wreck, fumbling on five occasions though he lost only one. Stafford's line -- 10-of-25 for 148 yards and no scores or picks -- is a crusher, and it held back Calvin Johnson, too. Megatron caught only three balls for 49 yards. The Detroit Lions were victimized by some shaky officiating, but also made their usual passel of dumb plays. Yet if you survived their awfulness Sunday, get those guys right back in there next Monday night against the Ravens.


• Lamar Miller was finally supposed to be a lead back, but somebody forgot to tell Daniel Thomas. Last we heard about Thomas, he was supposedly out for the season because of sprained ankle ligaments. And then he was at least definitely out this week. And then he was active. Miller got a couple of series to himself in the first quarter, but Thomas got involved in the second stanza. When Miller took a big hit to the head in the third quarter, the carries were 6-3 in favor of Miller. But then Miller was concussed, and Thomas took over, first scoring on a 4-yarder, and then making the game's key play, a rumbling 55-yard run with four minutes left in the game. I don't think Thomas is a great player, but if Miller is out in Week 15, Thomas will have a great matchup, versus the Patriots.

• Wes Welker also suffered a concussion on a neck-wrenching hit from George Wilson in the second quarter of Sunday's game, his second concussion of the season. He had five catches for 61 yards and a TD before the injury, and also dropped a second score, but the worry obviously is that he could miss time going forward. The Denver Broncos have three plus matchups the rest of the season (San Diego, at Houston, at Oakland), but may choose to play it safe with their slot machine, especially because they play this Thursday.

• The big plays keep coming for Josh Gordon. Through almost three quarters, Gordon had three catches on five targets for 42 yards. Then with 1:37 left in the third quarter, he ran a kind-of-clumsy short slant where he actually stumbled, but Aqib Talib was so jumpy from worrying Gordon was going to run past him, he lost a step, Gordon gathered himself and just exploded. I've said many times that I don't think Gordon is a possessor of elite deep speed, but I may need to re-think that after watching him run past Talib for an 80-yard TD. It was an impressive play, and it ensured that Gordon would score at least 18 fantasy points for the fourth time in his past five games. He's still not a polished route runner and he still doesn't have an above-average quarterback, which is why Gordon won't be a top-five option at WR for me heading into next season. (Top 10? Probably yes.) But even without those things, Gordon just submitted the highest four-game receiving yardage total in NFL history (breaking Calvin Johnson's mark set earlier this year, so yeah, maybe it's not the most storied record, but still). Imagine what he'll be like when he does run the full route tree and the Cleveland Browns find him a franchise QB. Time to admit Mike Holmgren did something right, spending a supplemental second-rounder on Gordon.

• Stevan Ridley was active Sunday and didn't get his first carry until the second quarter; all told, LeGarrette Blount had eight carries, as did Ridley. (Vereen was the star at RB, with 12 catches for 153 yards and a TD.) Blount had a couple nice moments for sure, doing nothing to get himself benched, but when the game got tight late and the Pats needed something, Ridley was the man. We still didn't see enough focus on Ridley for you to feel good about starting him against the Miami Dolphins in Week 15, but if Ridley was dropped in your league and you've got a bench spot, he's worth an add.


• Rashad Jennings never got cleared to practice last week after his Thanksgiving concussion, and wound up a game-day inactive. Because Darren McFadden and Jeremy Stewart also were out with injury, Marcel Reece got the start and busted a 63-yard TD run as the Red Sea of the New York Jets defense parted for him, and he wound up with 21 touches for 161 yards. The Jets led the whole day, but this wasn't really a case of garbage-time stats. Reece was legitimately the best player for the Oakland Raiders. It's within the realm of possibility he could start again Week 15 against the Kansas City Chiefs.

• Statistically speaking, Andrew Luck busted out of his slump Sunday. But the Indianapolis Colts didn't play well and were pretty much ground into dust by the Cincinnati Bengals, and Luck compiled 326 yards passing and four TDs mostly in frantic mode. (After the game's first 35 minutes, the Bengals led 21-0 and Luck was 8-of-16 for 77 yards.) Indy's supposedly startable fantasy weapons, T.Y. Hilton and Coby Fleener, did not partake of the garbage, going for a combined seven catches for 38 yards. Meanwhile, Da'Rick Rogers and LaVon Brazill each scored two TDs. Rogers -- who had previously never seen an NFL target -- was a hyped undrafted rookie this summer, a transfer from the University of Tennessee who was in the same league as Cordarrelle Patterson and Justin Hunter, but who has been a problem child. If he ever puts the mental and emotional side of things together, he'd certainly be a vast improvement over Darrius Heyward-Bey.

• Dennis Pitta returned from injured reserve and his hip surgery, and played a ton Sunday. He had six catches on 11 targets for 48 yards and a TD. With Gronkowski probably gone, Pitta will be the waiver wire's best replacement option. Considering how frequently Joe Flacco threw it to Pitta last season -- he was 10th among all TEs with 91 targets in 2012 -- it's fair to argue Pitta immediately joins the often-frustrating TE middle class as soon as next Monday night against the Lions.

• Robert Griffin III continues to play a horrendous brand of football, and for the second straight week, Alfred Morris was reduced to being an innocent bystander. Morris had some mojo going on the Washington Redskins' second possession, but then RG III threw a pick, the Chiefs scored to go up 17-0, and that was basically it. I remember the beginning of last season when I was skeptical of Morris because he's not huge and not fast. But I've stood corrected for a long time. He's a very good player, one of those guys whose vision and ability to translate what he sees into decisive action is truly rare. But the Skins just couldn't stick with the run, as they fell behind 31-0 just five minutes into the second quarter. It's frustrating, but I think you probably have to stick with Morris next week against the Atlanta Falcons, assuming you survived.


• It sure is nice when Bobby Rainey eases your fantasy worries on the game's second play from scrimmage. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers continue to use Rainey as their feature back and gave him 22 carries, compared to seven for Brian Leonard. But the only run that really mattered was an 80-yard score (Rainey had 47 yards on his other 21 totes) and foreshadowed an easy Bucs win. The Buffalo Bills were inept on offense, and C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson were just shut down by a crazily athletic-looking Tampa defense. It makes you wonder what might've happened had the Bucs not been so snake-bitten early this season, and/or if they'd handed their starting job to Mike Glennon out of camp. Either way, Rainey has a bad matchup next week against the San Francisco 49ers, but the workload continues to make him at least a flex.

• The Raiders' D/ST looked like the stream of the week, going up against a scuffling Geno Smith. And then they allowed 37 scoreboard points against a squad that had scored 20 points in its past three games combined. Awesome.

• I think Peyton Manning is OK playing in the cold, yeah?

• Matt Prater set an NFL record with a 64-yard field goal before halftime Sunday. If your fantasy league doesn't reward 100 bonus points for setting a field goal record … uh, shame on you?
 

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Free-agent finds for Week 15

By Christopher Harris | ESPN.com

Standard ESPN League Finds

Toby Gerhart, RB, Minnesota Vikings (owned in 1.0 percent of ESPN leagues): Adrian Peterson sprained his right foot Sunday; if you've seen the replay, you saw AP in all kinds of pain, and you saw him carted off the sideline. At this point, it's unclear whether Peterson will be ready for Week 15 versus the Philadelphia Eagles, though he did receive good news that his injury isn't of the Lisfranc variety, so we'll see. If Peterson is out, will Gerhart be able to go? The Vikings reported that Gerhart suffered a hamstring injury late Sunday, presumably on his improbable 41-yard TD since it was his final tote of the day, and I went back and looked at the tape and indeed on their final possession, Matt Asiata (0.1 percent) and Rhett Ellison (0.1 percent) were in the backfield. I have to assume Gerhart would've been in there if he could've been. But Sunday is a long time away, and Gerhart is a natural add if you're a Peterson owner. Asiata is a special teams player with three career regular-season carries and Ellison is a tight end. Remember, two seasons ago Gerhart started five games in place of an injured AP, and in three of them ran for 90-plus yards.

Jordan Todman, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (1.1 percent): When last we saw Maurice Jones-Drew, he was leading his Jags to a Thursday night win with 123 total yards, but on his final carry he came up clutching his right hamstring and didn't return. While MJD has promised to play Sunday against the Buffalo Bills, the Jags are hedging their bets, signing Delone Carter (0.1 percent) and putting Justin Forsett on IR. That leaves Todman as the presumptive starter if MJD doesn't go against the Buffalo Bills. He was strong in the preseason, though he also had leave last Thursday's game because of a cramp, but not before catching a 21-yard TD. Denard Robinson (0.5 percent) also could be involved if MJD needs replacing, though his forays into RB-hood haven't looked all that promising yet. None of these options are scintillating, but here at the beginning of the week, if I had to pick one guy as an emergency flex I think it'd be Todman.

Daniel Thomas, RB, Miami Dolphins (5.2 percent): Just a few days ago, we were all speculating about Lamar Miller finally getting his chance to be a full-time back. Then Sunday came, and Thomas was pronounced "active." What the what? Apparently his ankle sprain wasn't as bad as reported, and then Miller took a huge hit from Ryan Clark and was concussed. And so suddenly, it was Thomas who was the feature back, and this disappointing former second-round pick was legitimately good the rest of the way. Six of his next 10 runs went for 6 yards or more (and that doesn't include a 4-yard TD), including a 55-yard scamper that changed the complexion of the game. Thomas' 105 total rushing yards were his most since going for 107 in his NFL debut in 2011, and while he's nobody's idea of a breakaway back and has suffered through his own concussions and the sort of on-field vision problems that seemed insurmountable, he is 6-foot-1 and 228 pounds. Plus if Miller is out Sunday -- which is not a sure thing by any means, as the Dolphins are reportedly encouraged by Miller's early tests -- Thomas would get to face a soft New England Patriots run defense.


Dennis Pitta, TE, Baltimore Ravens (1.4 percent): Pitta caught a 1-yard TD in his return from injured reserve Sunday, but more significantly he was able to play 36 out of 85 total snaps for the Ravens Sunday. While Ed Dickson (0.7 percent) was busy dropping a pass and looking relatively lost, Pitta picked up where he left off with Joe Flacco, and the hope is that he showed enough to warrant even more work Monday night versus the Detroit Lions. If you lost Rob Gronkowski after Sunday's horrible knee injury, Pitta would be my pick as a replacement, if only because among the middle class of frustrating TEs, he's coming off a 2012 season in which he established himself as a low-level every-week fantasy starter.

Jacob Tamme, TE, Denver Broncos (1.1 percent): Wes Welker almost certainly isn't going to play Thursday night against the San Diego Chargers after suffering his second concussion in the past four games Sunday, meaning Tamme will line up in the slot a bunch for Peyton Manning. That's never a bad formula. In fact, if you're a Gronk owner who has a gut feeling that Tamme will find himself a passel of targets against the Chargers, I can't argue the point. He had six targets versus the Tennessee Titans Sunday (one was erased by a defensive penalty), all of which came after Welker's injury. It's always a bit scary to plug a guy like Tamme -- who has 13 catches for 124 yards all season -- into your fantasy lineup in the playoffs, but this does seem like a formula where Tamme should get some usage.

New Orleans Saints defense (43.7 percent): Last week's selection of the Raiders D/ST ended my streak of good streaming picks. Sorry about that. If it's any consolation, I took my own advice, and yuck. Anyway, if you're still alive and looking for another streamer, this week doesn't have as many on-paper good-looking options. I'll choose the Saints as my top selection, because Kellen Clemens was bad Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals. (By the way, just check and make sure that the Cards D/ST is owned in your league; somehow, they're available in 44.3 percent of ESPN leagues.) If you need a lighter-owned defense, I'll take the Buffalo Bills (24.5 percent); I don't view the Jaguars as an elite matchup for opposing D/STs any longer, but they haven't put a major licking on too many defenses lately, either.

Other solid waiver adds, about whom I've written in previous weeks: Josh McCown, QB, Bears (19.0 percent); Julian Edelman, WR, Patriots (36.8 percent); Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers (25.9 percent); Rod Streater, WR, Raiders (6.8 percent); Delanie Walker, TE, Titans (19.8 percent); Garrett Graham, TE, Texans (33.4 percent); John Carlson, TE, Vikings (0.9 percent); Heath Miller, TE, Steelers (16.4 percent).

Deeper League Finds

Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Vikings (5.0 percent): If you think Josh Gordon is nasty after the catch, get a load of Patterson. A 4.42 runner at 6-2 and 216 pounds, this kid is a handful in the open field and showed it again Sunday with a 79-yard catch-and-run with less than a minute to play, which should've clinched the game for the Vikes. Patterson this year is where Gordon was last year: He's brimming with ability but doesn't have many of the game's finer points down, which explains why over the past month he's played between 40 and 50 offensive snaps per game (which is about a two-thirds workload). We can only hope Patterson becomes the hands catcher Gordon has evolved into, plus Patterson has the challenge of other wideouts such as Greg Jennings and Jerome Simpson stealing looks, whereas often it feels as though Gordon is the only game in town. In a standard league, you should probably use Patterson only as a high-upside, scary-downside option if you're an underdog in your playoffs. But he's a comer.

Ryan Tannehill, QB, Miami Dolphins (14.1 percent): I've been reluctant to add Tannehill to these lists all year because while he has been solid, he hasn't proved he's got the upside to really help you. In his first 11 games of 2013, he scored between 9 and 16 fantasy points, averaging 13.4 per game. Considering the league-average fantasy QB nets you 15.5 fantasy points, blurg. But over his past two games, Tannehill has notched 21 and 23, throwing five TD passes in the process. He still is frustratingly inaccurate on the deep ball, but it was pretty cool to see him keep it on a true zone-read Sunday versus the Steelers and run for 48 yards. The Pats aren't a bad matchup for him in Week 15, though again, I'd really only consider him in deeper leagues.


Da'Rick Rogers, WR, Indianapolis Colts (0.1 percent): Rogers and LaVon Brazill (0.1 percent) scored two TDs apiece as the Colts flailed around trying to come back on the Cincinnati Bengals, a nice fact that we shouldn't allow to distract us. More important, Darrius Heyward-Bey was marginalized in the Indy game plan, which is justice plain and simple. DHB caught two passes for 23 yards Sunday, but yet again dropped a fairly easy ball on a third down in the first quarter as his team trailed only 7-0. Rogers was a part of the game plan immediately, as Andrew Luck fired a deep shot his way on the Colts' first possession, and in the end he wound up with six grabs for 107 yards. Realize this about Rogers: Nobody has ever doubted his physical talent. He's 6-3 and 206 pounds, and runs a 4.52 40, was teammates with Cordarrelle Patterson and Justin Hunter at the University of Tennessee, and posted a 1,000-yard receiving season in 2011. But he was kicked out of school because of multiple alleged substance-abuse violations, and he didn't show well in Bills training camp as an undrafted rookie this summer. The worry is that behavioral problems will continue to stunt this kid's growth. But if he puts it all together, he could be a stud.

Marcel Reece, RB, Oakland Raiders (2.8 percent): One of these days, wouldn't you think the Raiders would look at their mishmash of annoying runners and decide to give Reece an actual real-life shot to be their featured halfback? Once again Sunday, they started the game with Reece playing fullback, and a combination of Taiwan Jones (remember him?) and Jamize Olawale at halfback. It wasn't until late in the first quarter, already down 10-0, that Reece and Olawale flip-flopped, and Reece turned into the halfback. And Reece did his thing: 21 touches for 161 yards against a rugged New York Jets run defense, including a 63-yard TD run in the third quarter. What's interesting about that scamper is by the time he got up to top speed, the 240-pound Reece was faster than anyone in the Jets secondary. His problem is that it takes him lots of time to get to top speed. Anyway, Rashad Jennings has reportedly been cleared through the NFL's concussion protocol, so it sounds as if he'll go Week 15 versus the Kansas City Chiefs. But if Reece ever does get a start at tailback, I'd be interested.

James Starks, RB, Green Bay Packers (16.9 percent): Eddie Lacy has been so good. Either he or Keenan Allen is probably the Fantasy Rookie of the Year. But Lacy missed time Sunday with a sprained ankle, and admitted after the game that he didn't feel like himself in the second half. Considering he was able to return to the game, I'm guessing Lacy goes next week against the Dallas Cowboys. But if he doesn't, Starks would find himself in an enviable position, running against a poor defense with little competition for carries. Remember, Johnathan Franklin is on IR.

Other solid waiver adds for deep-leaguers, about whom I've written in previous weeks: Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Titans (4.7 percent); Carson Palmer, QB, Cardinals (13.1 percent); LeGarrette Blount, RB, Patriots (6.8 percent); Chris Ogbonnaya, RB, Browns (14.4 percent); Mike Tolbert, RB, Panthers (19.0 percent); Brian Hartline, WR, Dolphins (36.4 percent); Brandon LaFell, WR, Panthers (5.6 percent); Justin Hunter, WR, Titans (0.6 percent); Nate Burleson, WR, Lions (14.1 percent); Ted Ginn, WR, Panthers (3.9 percent); Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks (17.9 percent); Jerricho Cotchery, WR, Steelers (19.5 percent); Kenny Stills, WR, Saints (20.1 percent); Ace Sanders, WR, Jaguars (0.5 percent); Timothy Wright, TE, Buccaneers (1.9 percent); Ladarius Green, TE, Chargers (3.7 percent).
 

hacheman@therx.com
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[h=1]Next-level data provides fantasy hints[/h][h=3]Tips for owners who are still alive in the final weeks of the fantasy playoffs[/h]
Welcome to this season's final installment of Trendspotting. I hope that you have enjoyed the fantasy season as much as I have, and that you are reading this column looking forward to competing for a fantasy championship next week. Throughout the season, we have explored next-level data in an attempt to gain tactical advantages, usually by identifying players who were significantly over- or under-valued. This week, I wanted to take the opportunity to first thank you for reading the column, while also providing some statistics regarding just how impressive the Denver Broncos' offense has been in 2013.
Here are some fun statistics regarding Denver's offense (and some of their less successful counterparts elsewhere in the NFL):
• The Broncos have run 163 plays in the red zone
• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New York Jets have combined for a total of 159 red-zone snaps so far this season
• The Broncos have run 105 snaps in the red zone since Week 6
• Fifteen NFL teams don't have 105 red zone snaps for the year
• Peyton Manning has eight games in which he posted a Total QBR above 80
• Drew Brees (6) is the only other quarterback with more than five such games
• The Broncos' offense has scored 16 touchdowns on plays that originated outside of the red zone
• The Baltimore Ravens have two such touchdowns
• Four Broncos players have scored at least ten touchdowns
• There are only 12 players in the NFL with at least that many scores
• Jeremy Kerley, Jeff Cumberland and Chris Ivory share the lead for touchdowns scored for the Jets, with three scores each

[h=3]On target[/h]
Receiving yardage is the most variable form of yardage, which makes sense because so much of it is dependent on where the quarterback elects to throw the ball. Because of this, variations in the number of times a player is targeted by his quarterback can greatly change a player's value. So while your receiver may have scored 10 fantasy points this weekend, you need to know whether it's reasonable to expect that he can repeat that type of performance on a routine basis. If a receiver had one target that he turned into a 40-yard touchdown, you need to realize that he was one quarterback decision away from posting a goose egg. Conversely, if your wideout had 12 targets and finished with 108 yards receiving, his prospects for consistent fantasy production are significantly greater.
Below, you'll see all of the players who are averaging eight or more targets in their past four games, and how many of those targets were on plays that began in the red zone during Week 14.
Note: Targets are not an official NFL statistic. Based on the methodology that stat services use, the number of targets listed may be different than target values listed elsewhere. ESPN Stats & Information's philosophy is to count a target when the analyst thinks the pass was actually intended for the player. Therefore, if a quarterback is obviously throwing a ball away, the analyst will not record a target for that pass. This gives a truer representation of what a target is -- a pass thrown to a particular player, with the intent for that player to catch the ball -- and therefore should be more helpful to the fantasy community.

[h=3]Fantasy insights based on data through Week 14[/h]

<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Week 14 Targets Report[/h]
PlayerTargets*RZ
Josh Gordon13.51
Andre Johnson13.34
Shane Vereen11.34
Pierre Garcon11.00
Garrett Graham11.03
Alshon Jeffery10.81
Harry Douglas10.50
Calvin Johnson10.50
Larry Fitzgerald10.03
Brian Hartline10.01
Antonio Brown10.01
Dennis Pitta10.02
Brandon Marshall9.82
Dez Bryant9.32
Jimmy Graham9.35
D. Thomas9.34
Anquan Boldin9.30
Julian Edelman9.01
Steve Johnson9.00
Roddy White8.81
Rob Gronkowski8.50
Greg Olsen8.51
Eric Decker8.52
Kendall Wright8.30
Charles Clay8.33
Wes Welker8.03
Rod Streater8.03
Marques Colston8.03
Keenan Allen8.01
Jordan Cameron8.01
Dwayne Bowe8.01
Coby Fleener8.00
Cecil Shorts8.00
* Target data presented here is average number of targets through the past four games

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• Shane Vereen is an absolute must-start for the remainder of the season. He is the No. 1 receiving option for the New England Patriots. This does not detract from Julian Edelman's value, as Edelman will be very playable from here on out, but is rather a statement about how valuable Vereen's presence is, especially now that Rob Gronkowski is done for the year.
• Da'Rick Rogers played on 40 of the 58 snaps that Andrew Luck's Indianapolis Colts offense was on the field on Sunday. Rogers went undrafted due to concerns about his character, and was subsequently cut by both the receiver-needy Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins earlier this year. However, Rogers has the measurables to be a productive wide receiver in the NFL, and is worth a flier in keeper leagues.
• Don't look now, but Dwayne Bowe has been useful of late. The Kansas City Chiefs have a favorable matchup for their wide receivers this week against the Oakland Raiders, and have the third-friendliest schedule for receivers for the rest of the season.
• After being targeted 36 times in his first eight games (4.5 per game), Roddy White has been targeted 24 times in the last two weeks (12.0 per game). If you had White on your roster throughout all that pain, the good times are here.

[h=3]Big plays and up close[/h]
There were nine NFL players who totaled three or more rushes that gained 10 or more yards each in Week 14. They were: DeMarco Murray (7), LeSean McCoy (6), Matt Forte (5), Jamaal Charles (5), Giovani Bernard (5), Toby Gerhart (3), Ryan Mathews (3), Montee Ball (3) and Andre Brown (3).
Meanwhile, there were ten players with at least two carries from their opponent's 5-yard line or closer. They were: Mathews (4), Charles (3), Ball (3), BenJarvus Green-Ellis (2), Bernard Pierce (2), McCoy (2), Marcel Reece (2), Peyton Hillis (2), Rashard Mendenhall (2) and Zac Stacy (2). Pierce, McCoy and Reece all failed to convert at least one of these carries into six points; the others were successful at least once.
Seeing that McCoy didn't convert his chances from in close probably doesn't bother too many of his owners, especially since he ran for two long touchdowns.
McCoy, Charles, Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch and Adrian Peterson all have 30 rushes that resulted in 10 yards or more over the course of the season. Lynch and Charles are the only two running backs in the league with more than 15 carries from inside the opponent's 5-yard line. That's exactly what you want from your first-round selection, and it's why their owners are likely still alive in the playoffs.
Montee Ball is quickly moving up my running back ranks for next season. His blocking skills continue to improve, and he has been the more effective running back in Denver for the past several weeks. While Knowshon Moreno is still a strong fantasy commodity, if he were a stock, I would short it and buy low on Ball.
Joique Bell and Stevan Ridley each have eight carries inside the 5. Both have converted six of those opportunities into touchdowns. With Reggie Bush likely limited and Gronkowski out, both players will have their roles elevated in the coming weeks. That's some decent luck for their owners.

[h=3]Red zone play-calling chart[/h]
Below is a listing of the percentage of run/pass plays each team has executed this season in the red zone. Pass plays are defined as any play in which the quarterback attempted a pass or was sacked, and all other plays are deemed as a rush.


<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]Red Zone Play-Calling Chart[/h]
TeamSnapsPassRush
Denver Broncos16358%42%
New England Patriots14648%52%
Green Bay Packers13653%47%
Kansas City Chiefs13353%47%
Chicago Bears13258%42%
San Diego Chargers12660%40%
Atlanta Falcons12266%34%
Pittsburgh Steelers12165%35%
Detroit Lions11960%40%
St. Louis Rams11857%43%
Carolina Panthers11837%63%
New Orleans Saints11761%39%
San Francisco 49ers11535%65%
Baltimore Ravens11555%45%
Seattle Seahawks11441%59%
Philadelphia Eagles10848%52%
Buffalo Bills10635%65%
Miami Dolphins10556%44%
Tennessee Titans10443%57%
Houston Texans10456%44%
Washington Redskins10356%44%
Cleveland Browns10262%38%
Jacksonville Jaguars10065%35%
Minnesota Vikings9951%49%
Dallas Cowboys9856%44%
Indianapolis Colts9762%38%
Cincinnati Bengals9754%46%
Arizona Cardinals9459%41%
New York Giants9056%44%
Oakland Raiders8845%55%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers8465%35%
New York Jets7551%49%

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As I conclude this week's column, I want to thank Hank Gargiulo from ESPN Stats & Analysis for the support he lends to this column on a weekly basis. I am truly appreciative of his work, and he deserves recognition for those contributions. Without his efforts, the column would not have been as effective, as it could not provide nearly as much information.
Thanks again to everyone for reading and good luck for the remainder of the season.
 

hacheman@therx.com
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Messages
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[h=1]Best, worst Week 15 matchups[/h][h=3]Andrew Luck, Shane Vereen among players with favorable opportunities[/h]By Scott Kacsmar | Football Outsiders

The real NFL playoffs can be accused of producing random results these days with No. 6 seeds making championship runs and a player such as David Tyree providing arguably the greatest play in Super Bowl history.
The fantasy playoffs carry even more randomness with all 32 teams in action. Who would have imagined journeyman quarterback Josh McCown would lead all players with 38 fantasy points in Week 14? He was one of the quarterbacks I suggested last week as a starter over Andrew Luck, who finished second with 32 fantasy points.
And everyone had LaVon Brazill and Da'Rick Rogers scoring two touchdowns apiece against a Cincinnati defense that had not allowed more than three offensive touchdowns in 23 consecutive games, right?
This is still the time of year to trust your gut (and your studs), but the unexpected results and crushing injuries are certainly harder to take when the season is on the line in the playoffs.
Here are the best and worst fantasy matchups for Week 15:
(Note: References to defensive rankings for the pass and run are based on Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, explained here).

[h=3]Quarterbacks[/h]
Andrew Luck (plus-4 points)
Last week was a pleasant surprise as Luck tossed four touchdown passes. It helps that no one on the Bengals wanted to tackle Brazill. Luck usually bounces back well from a loss, and Week 14 was the best he has looked since the Reggie Wayne injury. The Texans rank 27th against the pass and just fired their coach. That team is a mess, and the Colts are at home with perhaps a new target in Rogers to catch the passes Darrius Heyward-Bey continues to drop. You can start Luck this week.<OFFER></OFFER>

<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Players With Favorable Matchups[/h]
PosTeamName+/- Fan Pts
QBINDAndrew Luck+5
RBDALDeMarco Murray+3
QBBUFEJ Manuel+3
RBNEShane Vereen+3
QBWASKirk Cousins+2
RBMIALamar Miller+1
RBMIADaniel Thomas+1
RBDENMontee Ball+1
WRGBJordy Nelson+1
RBSTLZac Stacy+1
QBCHIJosh McCown+1
QBATLMatt Ryan+1
WRINDT.Y. Hilton+1
WRWASPierre Garcon+1
RBBUFFred Jackson+1
RBWASAlfred Morris+1
RBCINGiovani Bernard+1
QBKCAlex Smith+1
TEDALJason Witten+1
QBCHIJay Cutler+1
QBHOUCase Keenum+1
TEWASJordan Reed+1
TEINDCoby Fleener+1
RBARIAndre Ellington+1
WRBUFSteve Johnson+1
RBHOUBen Tate+1
RBARIRashard Mendenhall+1
RBBUFC.J. Spiller+1

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<!-- end inline 1 -->Josh McCown (plus-1 point) and Jay Cutler (plus-1 point)
Can Marc Trestman really go back to Cutler after how well McCown has played? Either way, the Bears have a solid matchup against Cleveland's 22nd-ranked pass defense, which has allowed 23 touchdown passes this season. Even if cornerback Joe Haden plays well, that leaves a favorable matchup for Alshon Jeffery or Brandon Marshall. Either quarterback should take advantage, although we'll just have to wait to see which one Trestman picks.
Ben Roethlisberger (minus-5 points)
He has averaged 20.8 fantasy points the past six games, but the Bengals have the No. 4 pass defense and some of the worst home games of Roethlisberger's career have been against Cincinnati. In his career against the Bengals, Roethlisberger has 10 touchdowns and 11 interceptions at home versus 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions in Cincinnati.
[h=3]Running backs[/h]
Shane Vereen (plus-3 points)
Vereen has become an integral part of the New England offense because of Stevan Ridley's fumbles and now the Rob Gronkowski injury. He has 40 receptions in just five games this season, so he's a PPR stud and has scored in his past two games. Fantasywise, Vereen might be the most reliable New England skill player moving forward. Plus, the Dolphins allow the eighth-most fantasy points to running backs.

<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]Players With Unfavorable Matchups[/h]
PosTeamName+/- Fan Pts
QBPITBen Roethlisberger-5
QBTENRyan Fitzpatrick-4
QBNYGEli Manning-3
RBDETReggie Bush-3
QBJACChad Henne-3
QBNYJGeno Smith-3
RBTENChris Johnson-3
RBDETJoique Bell-2
RBCARDeAngelo Williams-2
RBBALRay Rice-2
RBNYGAndre Brown-2
RBPITLe'Veon Bell-1
RBNYJChris Ivory-1
QBSFColin Kaepernick-1
RBNYJBilal Powell-1
QBARICarson Palmer-1
RBSFFrank Gore-1
QBTBMike Glennon-1
QBOAKMatt McGloin-1
RBSDRyan Mathews-1
RBSDDanny Woodhead-1
RBNOPierre Thomas-1
RBNODarren Sproles-1
WRPITAntonio Brown-1

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<!-- end inline 2 -->Montee Ball (plus-1 point)
Apparently, any skill player on Denver has potential for an elite fantasy game. Ball tallied two touchdowns in the Broncos' first game against the Chiefs this season, piling up 117 rushing yards in Kansas City. And he rushed for 77 yards and a touchdown this past week. The San Diego defense ranks last against the run and the pass. On a short week after Peyton Manning threw it 59 times Sunday, look for the Broncos to use the ground game more with Ball.
Alfred Morris (plus-1 point)
Even if Kirk Cousins is starting, Morris is still trustworthy against an Atlanta defense that allows the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs.
Zac Stacy (plus-1 point)
I have had him correctly as a bad start the past two weeks, but it should be better this time around against New Orleans' 21st-ranked run defense. The Rams have to keep Kellen Clemens from screwing the game up, so Stacy is the proper workhorse for the job.
Reggie Bush (minus-3 points)
Bush injured his calf in pregame warm-ups Sunday and probably cost some people a fantasy game. He's not a great start this week, either, assuming he even plays against Baltimore's No. 5 run defense.
[h=3]Wide receivers[/h]
Jordy Nelson (plus-1 point)
There's a chance Aaron Rodgers will return this week, but, even if he doesn't, this is a good start because of just how awful the Dallas defense is. The Cowboys have already allowed 4,076 total passing yards this season. Nelson remains the best receiver on the Packers and should have ample opportunities for big plays regardless of whether Matt Flynn is the quarterback in Week 15.
[h=3]Tight ends[/h]
Jason Witten (plus-1 point)
In what could be a shootout with Green Bay, Witten is a must start as you can expect Tony Romo will look to throw for more than the 104 yards he did Monday night. Witten had just one catch for 10 yards, but at least it was a touchdown. He has seven TDs this season, tied for the second most of his career.


[h=3]Elite players[/h]
These are the elite fantasy players for Week 15 not listed in the above tables. You will want to start these players regardless of matchup on a weekly basis.

<!-- begin inline 3 -->[h=4]Week 15 Projections for Elite Players[/h]
PosTeamNameProjPosTeamNameProj
QBDENPeyton Manning+7WRDENDemaryius Thomas+2
QBDALTony Romo+4WRHOUAndre Johnson+1
QBPHINick Foles+1WRPHIDeSean Jackson+1
QBSDPhilip Rivers0WRCHIBrandon Marshall+1
QBNODrew Brees0WRCHIAlshon Jeffery+1
QBNETom Brady-1WRDENEric Decker+1
QBDETMatthew Stafford-2WRDALDez Bryant+1
RBDENKnowshon Moreno+4WRDETCalvin Johnson0
RBGBEddie Lacy+3WRCLEJosh Gordon0
RBCHIMatt Forte0WRCINA.J. Green0
RBKCJamaal Charles0TEDENJulius Thomas+1
RBPHILeSean McCoy0TENOJimmy Graham0
RBSEAMarshawn Lynch-2TESFVernon Davis0

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<!-- end inline 3 -->Injuries to Rob Gronkowski, Adrian Peterson and Wes Welker have affected our table.
Toby Gerhart is definitely someone Peterson owners should pick up, if they didn't already do so months ago as a handcuff.
The Broncos should be just fine without Welker on a short week at home against San Diego's bottom-ranked pass defense. Peyton Manning has a league-record 3,016 passing yards and 33 touchdowns in the 10 Thursday night games in his career.
For the Patriots, there is no way to replace Gronkowski. In the first six games of the season without him, Tom Brady had just nine completions to the tight end position and ranked below average in nearly every relevant quarterback metric. Playing on the road in Miami and Baltimore the next two weeks, Brady might not help your fantasy team in the playoffs. That makes him this week's "Lower Your Expectations" pick.
 

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