Exceptional Spots

[Michelangelo]

Occasionally I come across a horse bet that I think carries exceptional value. Some will be favorites like I expect today's play to be. Some will not be favorites but years of doing this tell me that there is extra value in betting the horse. I WILL NOT have a pick(s) every day.

Jack is running a contest here that places limitations on how much, and what kinds of bets can be placed. It is a great, fun contest but doesn't allow for "stepping in" when special value (subjective) shows up.

Thus, this thread.

Any of the experienced handicappers can contribute at any time, but please keep a running record with exact amounts bet and your money record.

Thanks, and good luck to all.

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I have one today:

Sunday, 6/21
Belmont
8th
$200.00 Win
#9 Sinful Dancer
5/2 ML
Post 4:40 Eastern

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Hope this thread works out. Good luck, all.

 

[Jack1999]

OK Michel good idea. Good luck with the thread.

 

[yesyes]

Love this idea m
good luck

 

[Michelangelo]

Sorry folks. It's been that kind of day for me. Looked like he was gonna sweep by the other two contenders at the top of the stretch. He went by but faltered down the stretch and gave it up.

-200.00

 

[MrGandT]

I like the idea of exceptional value thread. There is one I really like today at PIM. I think this horse has fighting chance to win with good odds. His figures and pace scenario fits well for this race.

Race 12

$50WP 1- Bank (ML 12-1)

I probably won’t want anything less than 8-1 or more than 15-1; will wait for the tote to decide if I am gonna cancel or not.

 

[Melniko]

Great thread, Mich. Good luck today, G&T.

 

[Melniko]

BEL R8 - Sat. 5/21
#10 Buckortwo -
$20 WP
$2 ex key box 10/2,6,8

 

[MrGandT]

I like the idea of exceptional value thread. There is one I really like today at PIM. I think this horse has fighting chance to win with good odds. His figures and pace scenario fits well for this race.

Race 12

$50WP 1- Bank (ML 12-1)

I probably won’t want anything less than 8-1 or more than 15-1; will wait for the tote to decide if I am gonna cancel or not.

Should have canceled my bet; went off at 16-1; didn’t have the late run I was hoping for

 

[Melniko]

BEL R8 - Sat. 5/21
#10 Buckortwo -
$20 WP
$2 ex key box 10/2,6,8

-$52.00

 

[MrGandT]

I like the idea of exceptional value thread. There is one I really like today at PIM. I think this horse has fighting chance to win with good odds. His figures and pace scenario fits well for this race.

Race 12

$50WP 1- Bank (ML 12-1)

I probably won’t want anything less than 8-1 or more than 15-1; will wait for the tote to decide if I am gonna cancel or not.

No good; should have canceled bet cuz it was 16-1; but greed came to place…. Lol

Total wagered $100.00
Total returned $0.00

Today, have another one that I think she has a good chance in open affair. DRF Race of the Day, SA Race 9: 1 1/8 on turf. I usually don’t bet on horses that just broke their maiden but I like the 2- Ghostem because of the pace scenario. On paper, it doesn’t look like any front runners signed up and the 2 can be the line speed of the race like his last race. Plus, his last two races were solid and comparable to the rest of the field. ML is 4-1 and I think it’s fair, but he dropped too much, then I might reconsider. As of now,

$50W 2- Ghostem

GL and any comments or suggestions are welcome.

 

[MrGandT]

No good; should have canceled bet cuz it was 16-1; but greed came to place…. Lol

Total wagered $100.00
Total returned $0.00

Today, have another one that I think she has a good chance in open affair. DRF Race of the Day, SA Race 9: 1 1/8 on turf. I usually don’t bet on horses that just broke their maiden but I like the 2- Ghostem because of the pace scenario. On paper, it doesn’t look like any front runners signed up and the 2 can be the line speed of the race like his last race. Plus, his last two races were solid and comparable to the rest of the field. ML is 4-1 and I think it’s fair, but he dropped too much, then I might reconsider. As of now,

$50W 2- Ghostem

GL and any comments or suggestions are welcome.

She led all the as expected, but could hold on, lost by a neck at 3-1…. the winner also just broke her maiden…
Total wagered $150.00
Total returned $0.00

 

[Michelangelo]

THat was solid analysis and a good pick, GT. Just missed.

 

[Melniko]

5/29 - CD R8
#2 Smokin Willie (5-1)
$20 WP, $2 ex key box 2/4,5
He's 0 for 2 at Churchill, but that last run was against older horses and he's back with just 3 yr olds today. In three runs he has had three consecutive Beyer increases (something I always look for). The price should be more than fair as this field is stacked with some nice colts.

 

[Melniko]

5/29 - CD R8
#2 Smokin Willie (5-1)
$20 WP, $2 ex key box 2/4,5
He's 0 for 2 at Churchill, but that last run was against older horses and he's back with just 3 yr olds today. In three runs he has had three consecutive Beyer increases (something I always look for). The price should be more than fair as this field is stacked with some nice colts.

finished 5-2
place paid $4.80 x 10 = $48.00
exacta paid $44.60
48/92.60
running thread total - 100/92.60

 

[Melniko]

5/30 - CD R5
#7 Group Hug (5-1)
$20 Win, $3 ex box 4,7,8
Tough to defend "exceptional spot" play on a 1 for 17 four-year old, but I like the direction he was headed in at Aqueduct this spring and now gets to go after a bit of freshening - his lone victory was off the bench here at CD.

 

[yesyes]

5/30 - CD R5
#7 Group Hug (5-1)
$20 Win, $3 ex box 4,7,8
Tough to defend "exceptional spot" play on a 1 for 17 four-year old, but I like the direction he was headed in at Aqueduct this spring and now gets to go after a bit of freshening - his lone victory was off the bench here at CD.

??. Love 1/17 ‘s??
Gl brother

 

[Melniko]

5/30 - CD R5
#7 Group Hug (5-1)
$20 Win, $3 ex box 4,7,8
Tough to defend "exceptional spot" play on a 1 for 17 four-year old, but I like the direction he was headed in at Aqueduct this spring and now gets to go after a bit of freshening - his lone victory was off the bench here at CD.

Not to be
38/0
running thread total - $138/$92.60

 

[Melniko]

6/3 - MTH R6
#8 Stefano (15-1)
$10 WP, $2 ex box 3,4,5,8

 

[Melniko]

6/3 - MTH R6
#8 Stefano (15-1)
$10 WP, $2 ex box 3,4,5,8

Scratched. Apparently the trainer thought he was too fast for this race.

 

[Michelangelo]

Scratched. Apparently the trainer thought he was too fast for this race.

haha