early games
$2000.00 Take 'Under' 37.5 San Francisco at Washington (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 6)
AND
$700.00 Take #415 San Francisco (-3.5) over Washington (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 6)
The San Francisco 49ers are one of the best teams in football and they are still being underrated. If the Steelers or the Packers or one of the other best teams in the game were going to Washington this week they would be laying at least a touchdown so there is value here. The Redskins don't have a quarterback and they are trying to move on without their best running back and receiver. Last week they were shut out by a Buffalo defense that had been among the worst, statistically, in the NFL. Jim Harbaugh's team is focused on becoming the first NFL team in history to clinch its division by mid-November. And they play much better defense than the Bills. I think that they are going to be relentless against the Redskins this week. And I don't expect Washington to be much of a home field edge this week since the hometown crowd is getting ready to turn on Mike Shanahan. Shanahan has a worse record at this point in his time with the Redskins than Jim Zorn, Steve Spurrier or Joe Gibbs the second time around. The Redskins are 7-16-2 ATS at home and they are just playing bad football right now. The 'under' is 5-1 in their last six games and 5-1 in their last six home games. The 'under' is also 9-3 when Washington is an underdog.
$2000.00 Take #414 Kansas City (-4) over Miami (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 6)
This is my NFL Game of the Week. I am betting on the hot teams in the NFL right now and the Chiefs are as hot as anyone. After a terrible start to the year they have been able to turn things around and I think that they are going to build off the momentum of their very fortunate Monday Night Football win. I normally try to avoid teams off emotional Monday wins. But the Chiefs are at home again so I think that the momentum will carry over. They are also facing a Miami team that is on the road for the second straight week. This Dolphins team is ready to quit at any time and they are completely disorganized. Their coach is going to be fired and this team knows that it isn't going to compete for anything outside of Andrew Luck this year. Arrowhead can be a tough environment for any team to come into but this is a daunting place to play for an unmotivated team like the Dolphins. Miami is just 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games overall and they are facing a Chiefs team that is on a 5-0 ATS push. Take the homers here.
$600.00 Take #412 Buffalo (-1.5) over New York Jets (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 6)
The Bills are having a dream season and I don't think that it will slow down this week! The Jets are still one of the most overrated teams in football and they get a lot of publicity because of their big mouth coach. Just because he has declared his team a Super Bowl team doesn't mean that they really are! The Bills defense keeps improving, as they showed by getting a shutout last week against the Redskins. Now Buffalo is back in Orchard Park where they have been excellent this season, beating teams like the Patriots and the Raiders. The Jets are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games and the Bills are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine home games. Buffalo will find a way to get it done for me and keep the dream alive!