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[h=1]Market Report: What Sharps are Betting in NFL Week Eight[/h]
NEW ENGLAND AT ST.LOUIS: An opener of New England -6.5 was bet up to the key number of seven quickly, where it’s stayed all week. It’s telling that sharps didn’t drive the dog immediately upon seeing the seven. We’re hearing mixed signals on this one. Sharps aren’t fond of New England right now because of their soft defense. But, they’re having trouble trusting the Rams after so many lost with them at home last week against Green Bay. The move to seven was largely influenced by position-takers who were assuming the public would hit the Patriots over the weekend. They were setting up a potential middle, and can buy off with limited exposure if needed.
INDIANAPOLIS AT TENNESSEE: The Titans opened at -3, and were bet up off the key number to -3.5. We’ve mentioned often that it takes a lot of money to move off a three. So, this represents clear support for a Tennessee team that’s been playing better football of late. Many sharps faded Indy last week with Cleveland, and lived to regret it. Indy’s last road game was a poor one at the NY Jets, giving some sharps enough motivation to try again. This isn’t expected to be a heavily bet game from the public.
JACKSONVILLE AT GREEN BAY: Oddsmakers opened the line at -14.5, basically asking for money on the underdog at a tick over a key number. Sharps bet the favorite anyway…which is why we’re seeing -15 or -15.5 in most places. Typically, the Wise Guys hit double digit dogs. There are some old-schoolers who do that on principle every time they see one. So, it’s telling that the line went against that tide toward the surging Packers. This is about as high a number as you’re going to see in the NFL this year…with Jacksonville representing close to the worst of what the league has to offer this year, and Green Bay getting respect from the market again after their blowout win in Houston and comfortable victory in St. Louis. The Over/Under is up a point from 44.5 to 45.5 because Green Bay plays Overs when things are going well. We’ll only discuss the totals this week when there’s been a move of at least a point.
SAN DIEGO AT CLEVELAND: Looks like we have a tug-of-war spot here on the key number of three. Sharps like Cleveland +3 as a home underdog, but money does come in on San Diego at -2.5 whenever the market falls under the three. The Chargers have performed well vs. lower echelon teams this season (beating Oakland, Tennessee, and Kansas City handily). San Diego money comes in at -2.5, Cleveland money comes in at +3, and oddsmakers have to hope the game doesn’t land exactly on three or they’ll have to pay one group while the other pushes.
ATLANTA AT PHILADELPHIA: Another tug-of-war spot here with Philadelphia -2.5 getting respect from one side of the equation, while Atlanta +3 gets support from the other. Remember that many sharps saw Philadelphia as the best team in the NFC before the season began. Some from within that group were happy to see the firing of the defensive coordinator, and they think this line is too low after a bye week. The stat guys are getting gradings on Atlanta at +3 because the numbers would rate the Falcons as the better team since the season began. Sharps don’t always agree about teams. And, the percentage value of a half point near the critical number of three often triggers action in and of itself. It will be interesting to see on game day if public money comes in strong on the hosts in a high profile early TV game.
SEATTLE AT DETROIT: Seattle was hit hard at the opener of +3, dropping the line down to +2. Sharps still love this Seattle defense, and the team’s seeming ability to play with anyone (wins this year already over Green Bay and New England). We’re hearing that many sharps are placing a lot of weight on the lead-in time. Seattle hasn’t played since last Thursday’s loss in San Francisco. Detroit had a very physical game this past Monday Night in Chicago. Note that this game is now sitting firmly in the teaser window. Sharps who loved Seattle at +3 will really love them at +8 in two-team teasers. Note also that the underdogs in the tug-of-war games will get moved from +2.5 up to +8.5. That means Seattle, Atlanta, and Cleveland will show up in a lot of basic strategy two-teamers this week.
MIAMI AT NY JETS: Same story here as a defensive dog with an advantage in lead-in time was bet from +3 down to +2. Miami had a bye last week, while the Jets were at war with hated New England in a big rivalry game. Sharps have been on this Miami bandwagon for awhile…and have already scored an outright road victory with them in Cincinnati. Add the Dolphins to the list of teams in basic strategy teasers too.
CAROLINA AT CHICAGO: We have our first favorite in the teaser window, as Chicago has been sitting at -7.5 all week. That means you can move the Bears down past the 7 and the 3 to -2.5 in two-teamer teasers. The public will be all over this teaser choice because the Bears have been winning, Carolina’s been losing, and an something below three would seem too good to be true. Is this the week Cam Newton snaps out of his funk? Can ANY quarterback snap out of a funk vs. this great Chicago defense? The fact that sharps didn’t hit the dog this close to a critical number is telling. The total has dropped from 45 to 43, which might be a hint about Sunday weather in the Windy City…but is probably more influenced by how these teams have been playing recently on both sides of the ball. Both played low scoring grinders last week.
WASHINGTON AT PITTSBURGH: Support for Pittsburgh at the opener of -4, which drove the line up to -4.5 (with an occasional five out there). This is in the dead zone that falls between critical numbers and not in the teaser window. That helps limit market action to only those who are truly interested in the teams rather than percentages. Pittsburgh’s played well at home this year, and many sharps are still skeptical of RGIII even though he keeps finding ways to cover spreads. We’re not seeing much interest on totals this week. That means the oddsmakers have figured out what the math guys are doing…and there are few weather influences currently projected to cause problems.
OAKLAND AT KANSAS CITY: Not a game of high interest for sharps or the public. Tough to trust either team with your money! Kansas City opened at -1. Some places are up to -1.5, which would put Oakland into the teaser window as an underdog.
NY GIANTS AT DALLAS: We’ve had a huge move here in what will be the most highly bet of the afternoon games. The Giants opened as a small underdog…but are now the clear betting favorite laying -1.5 or -2 points on the road. Why would the line do that after Dallas won the first meeting between these teams? The Cowboys have been hit by some injuries that sharps believe will have an impact. And, the Giants keep moving up the Power Ratings in a way that suggests they’re Super Bowl material once again. We’re hearing that this is mostly an anti-Dallas move…though the numbers guys are aware of the series history.
NEW ORLEANS AT DENVER: A surprising move up on the total…as a high opener of 54.5 has been bet up to 55.5. Many of the old school guys who bet all double digit dogs also bet all Unders for totals in the 50’s because of longterm tendencies at those numbers. The market moved higher anyway! Sharps expect a shootout. New Orleans got support at the opener of +6.5. We’re seeing +6 now. Sharps like what they’re seeing from the Saints in recent games, and are hoping the public bets Peyton Manning on game day in a way that creates more line value.
SAN FRANCISCO AT ARIZONA: The opener of San Francisco -6.5 has largely stood solid. You may see a seven out there in some places. Tough to love either offense against a top defense, and both of these teams have top defenses. The “defensive dog” guys are looking at Arizona…but are hoping the public will drive the Niners to a full seven or higher before kickoff Monday Night. Sharps obviously didn’t like SF much or the line would be there everywhere already.
NEW ENGLAND AT ST.LOUIS: An opener of New England -6.5 was bet up to the key number of seven quickly, where it’s stayed all week. It’s telling that sharps didn’t drive the dog immediately upon seeing the seven. We’re hearing mixed signals on this one. Sharps aren’t fond of New England right now because of their soft defense. But, they’re having trouble trusting the Rams after so many lost with them at home last week against Green Bay. The move to seven was largely influenced by position-takers who were assuming the public would hit the Patriots over the weekend. They were setting up a potential middle, and can buy off with limited exposure if needed.
INDIANAPOLIS AT TENNESSEE: The Titans opened at -3, and were bet up off the key number to -3.5. We’ve mentioned often that it takes a lot of money to move off a three. So, this represents clear support for a Tennessee team that’s been playing better football of late. Many sharps faded Indy last week with Cleveland, and lived to regret it. Indy’s last road game was a poor one at the NY Jets, giving some sharps enough motivation to try again. This isn’t expected to be a heavily bet game from the public.
JACKSONVILLE AT GREEN BAY: Oddsmakers opened the line at -14.5, basically asking for money on the underdog at a tick over a key number. Sharps bet the favorite anyway…which is why we’re seeing -15 or -15.5 in most places. Typically, the Wise Guys hit double digit dogs. There are some old-schoolers who do that on principle every time they see one. So, it’s telling that the line went against that tide toward the surging Packers. This is about as high a number as you’re going to see in the NFL this year…with Jacksonville representing close to the worst of what the league has to offer this year, and Green Bay getting respect from the market again after their blowout win in Houston and comfortable victory in St. Louis. The Over/Under is up a point from 44.5 to 45.5 because Green Bay plays Overs when things are going well. We’ll only discuss the totals this week when there’s been a move of at least a point.
SAN DIEGO AT CLEVELAND: Looks like we have a tug-of-war spot here on the key number of three. Sharps like Cleveland +3 as a home underdog, but money does come in on San Diego at -2.5 whenever the market falls under the three. The Chargers have performed well vs. lower echelon teams this season (beating Oakland, Tennessee, and Kansas City handily). San Diego money comes in at -2.5, Cleveland money comes in at +3, and oddsmakers have to hope the game doesn’t land exactly on three or they’ll have to pay one group while the other pushes.
ATLANTA AT PHILADELPHIA: Another tug-of-war spot here with Philadelphia -2.5 getting respect from one side of the equation, while Atlanta +3 gets support from the other. Remember that many sharps saw Philadelphia as the best team in the NFC before the season began. Some from within that group were happy to see the firing of the defensive coordinator, and they think this line is too low after a bye week. The stat guys are getting gradings on Atlanta at +3 because the numbers would rate the Falcons as the better team since the season began. Sharps don’t always agree about teams. And, the percentage value of a half point near the critical number of three often triggers action in and of itself. It will be interesting to see on game day if public money comes in strong on the hosts in a high profile early TV game.
SEATTLE AT DETROIT: Seattle was hit hard at the opener of +3, dropping the line down to +2. Sharps still love this Seattle defense, and the team’s seeming ability to play with anyone (wins this year already over Green Bay and New England). We’re hearing that many sharps are placing a lot of weight on the lead-in time. Seattle hasn’t played since last Thursday’s loss in San Francisco. Detroit had a very physical game this past Monday Night in Chicago. Note that this game is now sitting firmly in the teaser window. Sharps who loved Seattle at +3 will really love them at +8 in two-team teasers. Note also that the underdogs in the tug-of-war games will get moved from +2.5 up to +8.5. That means Seattle, Atlanta, and Cleveland will show up in a lot of basic strategy two-teamers this week.
MIAMI AT NY JETS: Same story here as a defensive dog with an advantage in lead-in time was bet from +3 down to +2. Miami had a bye last week, while the Jets were at war with hated New England in a big rivalry game. Sharps have been on this Miami bandwagon for awhile…and have already scored an outright road victory with them in Cincinnati. Add the Dolphins to the list of teams in basic strategy teasers too.
CAROLINA AT CHICAGO: We have our first favorite in the teaser window, as Chicago has been sitting at -7.5 all week. That means you can move the Bears down past the 7 and the 3 to -2.5 in two-teamer teasers. The public will be all over this teaser choice because the Bears have been winning, Carolina’s been losing, and an something below three would seem too good to be true. Is this the week Cam Newton snaps out of his funk? Can ANY quarterback snap out of a funk vs. this great Chicago defense? The fact that sharps didn’t hit the dog this close to a critical number is telling. The total has dropped from 45 to 43, which might be a hint about Sunday weather in the Windy City…but is probably more influenced by how these teams have been playing recently on both sides of the ball. Both played low scoring grinders last week.
WASHINGTON AT PITTSBURGH: Support for Pittsburgh at the opener of -4, which drove the line up to -4.5 (with an occasional five out there). This is in the dead zone that falls between critical numbers and not in the teaser window. That helps limit market action to only those who are truly interested in the teams rather than percentages. Pittsburgh’s played well at home this year, and many sharps are still skeptical of RGIII even though he keeps finding ways to cover spreads. We’re not seeing much interest on totals this week. That means the oddsmakers have figured out what the math guys are doing…and there are few weather influences currently projected to cause problems.
OAKLAND AT KANSAS CITY: Not a game of high interest for sharps or the public. Tough to trust either team with your money! Kansas City opened at -1. Some places are up to -1.5, which would put Oakland into the teaser window as an underdog.
NY GIANTS AT DALLAS: We’ve had a huge move here in what will be the most highly bet of the afternoon games. The Giants opened as a small underdog…but are now the clear betting favorite laying -1.5 or -2 points on the road. Why would the line do that after Dallas won the first meeting between these teams? The Cowboys have been hit by some injuries that sharps believe will have an impact. And, the Giants keep moving up the Power Ratings in a way that suggests they’re Super Bowl material once again. We’re hearing that this is mostly an anti-Dallas move…though the numbers guys are aware of the series history.
NEW ORLEANS AT DENVER: A surprising move up on the total…as a high opener of 54.5 has been bet up to 55.5. Many of the old school guys who bet all double digit dogs also bet all Unders for totals in the 50’s because of longterm tendencies at those numbers. The market moved higher anyway! Sharps expect a shootout. New Orleans got support at the opener of +6.5. We’re seeing +6 now. Sharps like what they’re seeing from the Saints in recent games, and are hoping the public bets Peyton Manning on game day in a way that creates more line value.
SAN FRANCISCO AT ARIZONA: The opener of San Francisco -6.5 has largely stood solid. You may see a seven out there in some places. Tough to love either offense against a top defense, and both of these teams have top defenses. The “defensive dog” guys are looking at Arizona…but are hoping the public will drive the Niners to a full seven or higher before kickoff Monday Night. Sharps obviously didn’t like SF much or the line would be there everywhere already.
$2100.00 -105 Take #227 Atlanta (+1.5) over Philadelphia (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 28)
This play is from my NFL 411 System.
I think that the wrong team is favored here. And my NFL 411 System suggests the same thing. Philadelphia is favored because they are at home. And because they are a very overrated team. The Eagles are just 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 home games. And Philadelphia is just 3-8-1 ATS coming back after a loss. Atlanta is unbeaten and like the Eagles they are coming off a bye week. Atlanta beat the Eagles at home last year. And this year's Falcons team is the best they have had under Mike Smith and Matt Ryan. Philadelphia fired its defensive coordinator and they are going to be unsure on that side of the ball. Mike Vick keeps turning the ball over. Atlanta has the better team and the better quarterback. They are undervalued still and they will win this game outright.
$300.00 +110 Take #221 Indianapolis (+3) over Tennessee (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 28)
Young Andrew Luck is playing well and taking care of business for the Colts. This team is 2-1 in its last three games and won a big one over Green Bay. Tennessee has won back to back games late in the fourth quarter. I do not think that they can do it again. I think the Colts win this game straight up. But there is not more than a field goal that separates these two teams. The underdog is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings and the Colts are 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings. They will get an outright win here but I will take the points in case it is another close game late.
$300.00 -107 Take #236 Pittsburgh (-4.5) over Washington (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 28)
The Steelers are the play here. This team is tough at home. They won a big game in Cincinnati last Sunday night and that has them going in the right direction. Pittsburgh has gone 9-4 ATS in its last 13 home games and they will get the job done here. Washington is banged up. They just lost another starter this week. They had a tough loss to the Giants last week. It will be tough for this team to go on the road two weeks in a row and put up that type of effort. This is just a game that Pittsburgh has to win and they will.
$300.00 -110 Take #230 Detroit (-2.5) over Seattle (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 28)
The Lions are off a disappointing game against the Bears on Monday night. They had a lot of red zone chances in that game but turnovers kept them from winning. They are 2-0 ATS in their last two games and I think this team knows that its back is against the wall. They have only played one home game in their last five games. They will be excited to be back in front of a strong home crowd. That will be a big advantage here. Seattle is just 9-20-1 ATS in their last 30 games on the road. I think Russell Wilson will have a rough game against a Detroit defense that is improving. Detroit is the play here in a game where the Lions won't have to come from behind.
This play is from my NFL 411 System.
I think that the wrong team is favored here. And my NFL 411 System suggests the same thing. Philadelphia is favored because they are at home. And because they are a very overrated team. The Eagles are just 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 home games. And Philadelphia is just 3-8-1 ATS coming back after a loss. Atlanta is unbeaten and like the Eagles they are coming off a bye week. Atlanta beat the Eagles at home last year. And this year's Falcons team is the best they have had under Mike Smith and Matt Ryan. Philadelphia fired its defensive coordinator and they are going to be unsure on that side of the ball. Mike Vick keeps turning the ball over. Atlanta has the better team and the better quarterback. They are undervalued still and they will win this game outright.
$300.00 +110 Take #221 Indianapolis (+3) over Tennessee (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 28)
Young Andrew Luck is playing well and taking care of business for the Colts. This team is 2-1 in its last three games and won a big one over Green Bay. Tennessee has won back to back games late in the fourth quarter. I do not think that they can do it again. I think the Colts win this game straight up. But there is not more than a field goal that separates these two teams. The underdog is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings and the Colts are 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings. They will get an outright win here but I will take the points in case it is another close game late.
$300.00 -107 Take #236 Pittsburgh (-4.5) over Washington (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 28)
The Steelers are the play here. This team is tough at home. They won a big game in Cincinnati last Sunday night and that has them going in the right direction. Pittsburgh has gone 9-4 ATS in its last 13 home games and they will get the job done here. Washington is banged up. They just lost another starter this week. They had a tough loss to the Giants last week. It will be tough for this team to go on the road two weeks in a row and put up that type of effort. This is just a game that Pittsburgh has to win and they will.
$300.00 -110 Take #230 Detroit (-2.5) over Seattle (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 28)
The Lions are off a disappointing game against the Bears on Monday night. They had a lot of red zone chances in that game but turnovers kept them from winning. They are 2-0 ATS in their last two games and I think this team knows that its back is against the wall. They have only played one home game in their last five games. They will be excited to be back in front of a strong home crowd. That will be a big advantage here. Seattle is just 9-20-1 ATS in their last 30 games on the road. I think Russell Wilson will have a rough game against a Detroit defense that is improving. Detroit is the play here in a game where the Lions won't have to come from behind.
6-0 on the week +$4000.00....going for the sweep
$2300.00 -105 Take #239 New York Giants (-2) over Dallas (4:20 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 28)
This play is from my NFL 411 System.
The Giants are the best road team in the NFL. They will not be worried about going down to Dallas to get a win. The Giants are 37-15-1 ATS in their last 53 road games and they have covered the spread in four of their last five trips to Dallas. The Giants have revenge after losing the Thursday night opening game to the Cowboys. They will not accept being swept by a division rival. The Cowboys are without one of their best defensive players after Sean Lee was ruled out for the year. They are going to struggle without him. Dallas is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games. This is another overrated team in the NFC East. Dallas is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games overall and the Giants are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. This line opened with the Cowboys as the favorites. But the number swung over four points to the Giants. All of the money in this one is on the Giants because they are the much better team.
$2300.00 -105 Take #239 New York Giants (-2) over Dallas (4:20 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 28)
This play is from my NFL 411 System.
The Giants are the best road team in the NFL. They will not be worried about going down to Dallas to get a win. The Giants are 37-15-1 ATS in their last 53 road games and they have covered the spread in four of their last five trips to Dallas. The Giants have revenge after losing the Thursday night opening game to the Cowboys. They will not accept being swept by a division rival. The Cowboys are without one of their best defensive players after Sean Lee was ruled out for the year. They are going to struggle without him. Dallas is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games. This is another overrated team in the NFC East. Dallas is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games overall and the Giants are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. This line opened with the Cowboys as the favorites. But the number swung over four points to the Giants. All of the money in this one is on the Giants because they are the much better team.
