Week 10
Raiders (4-4) @ Chargers (4-4)-- Two slumping rivals meet on short rest; San Diego is 0-3 since its bye, turning ball over nine times- they're 1-3 as favorite at home this year, but 33-21-2 since 2003, 13-8-1 in last 22 divisional home tilts. Oakland beat Chargers twice LY, ending 0-13 series skid; they've lost seven of last eight visits here, with all seven losses by 7+ points. Raiders are on road for first time in five weeks; they're 2-1 on foreign soil this year, with three games decided by total of 11 points;they're 20-15-1 in last 36 games as road underdog. Underdogs are 5-1 vs spread in AFC West games this season. Four of last five Raider games stayed under total; three of last four San Diego games went over.
Steelers (6-3) @ Bengals (6-2)-- Steelers had four-game win streak snapped last week by Ravens' late 92-yard TD drive; surprising Bengals won/covered five in a row behind rookie QB Dalton. Cincy is only NFL team to win battle for field position in all eight games this season. Bengals held last six opponents to just 77 yards per game on ground. Steelers won seven of last nine against Bengals- they've won nine of last ten visits here, with eight of nine wins by 6+ points. Steelers are 4-9-1 vs spread in last 14 games as pre-bye favorite. Dogs are 0-3 vs spread the week after playing Titans. Over is 3-1 both in Bengals' last four games and Pitt's last four games overall, 3-0 in AFC North games this season.
Broncos (3-5) @ Chiefs (4-4)-- Since 2003, Chiefs are 3-11 vs spread as home favorite in divisional games, 0-6 last four years; they had four-game win streak ended by a winless Miami last week. Visiting team won all three Tebow starts this season, with Denver running ball for 225.3 yards/game; Broncos are 3-1 vs spread on road, winning at Miami/Oakland, losing by 3 at Tennessee, 49-23 at Lambeau. Chiefs have only one TD in last five red zone drives, are 2-2 at home, with dog winning all four games SU. Denver lost six of last eight visits here, but they've won first series meeting vs Chiefs in eight of last ten seasons. Six of eight Denver games went over the total; last three Chief games stayed under.
Jaguars (2-6) @ Colts (0-9)-- This game is Indy's biggest remaining hurdle to a winless season and right to draft Andrew Luck. Colts are 9-3 in last 12 series games, winning four of last five, but only one of four wins was by more than 7 points. Jaguars lost five of last six visits here, losing by 7-7-7-2-10. Indy failed to cover last five games, losing last four by average of 37-10, with a -9 turnover ratio. Jaguars lost six of last seven games, scoring 14 or less points is six of the seven- they've gone 3/out on 23 of last 47 drives. Under is 7-1 in Jacksonville games, 4-1 in AFC South games. Since 2001, Jaguars are 6-16 as road favorites. Indianapolis was outscored 75-14 in first half of their last three games.
Bills (5-3) @ Cowboys (4-4)—Dallas won seven of ten series games, winning 25-24 in wild ’07 Monday nighter last time teams met. Four of last five series games were decided by 4 or less points. Bills lost three of four visits here, with only win in ’93, during the Emmitt Smith holdout. Buffalo is 4-0 when it scored 31+ points, 1-3 when it doesn’t; Cowboys allow an average of 17.5 ppg at homer. Teams are 0-3 as underdogs week after facing the Jets; teams are 1-4-2 vs spread week after playing Seattle. Dallas is 2-8 vs spread in last ten games as home favorite, 1-3 this year. AFC East road underdogs are 5-2 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC East home favorites are 3-7. Last four Cowboy games stayed under the total.
Texans (6-3) @ Buccaneers (4-4)—Houston won/covered its last three games, outscoring opponents 51-10 in first half; they’ve allowed 40-25-29 points in their losses, 24 or less in all six wins. Bucs lost three of last four games; they’ve scored more than 24 points one time this season. Home side won both series meetings; Texans lost 16-3 here eight years ago, in their only visit. Houston is 5-4 SU in pre-bye games, despite being underdog in eight of the nine games; three of those five wins are by 4 or less points. Teams are 1-6 (1-1 as favorites) week after playing Cleveland; teams are 0-4 as underdogs week after playing the Saints. AFC South underdogs are 3-5 vs spread in non-divisional games, 1-0 on road. NFC South dogs are 5-5, 2-1 at home. Under is 6-3 in Texan games this season, 5-1 in last six Tampa Bay tilts.
Titans (4-4) @ Panthers (2-6)—First road game in five weeks for Tennessee squad that lost three of last four games; Titans are 1-4 when they score 17 or less points, 3-0 when they score more. Carolina has held only one team (Jaguars, in a monsoon) under 20 points this season. Surprising lack of running game (100+ yards in only one game, 112 at Browns in Week 4) has hurt Titans, who lost two of three on foreign soil. Panthers are 2-6 despite improved QB play this year; rookie Newton has engineered 15 TD drives in his last five games- they’re 2-3 at home, allowing 10-20 points in their two wins, 24+ in the six losses. Carolina is 3-2 in five series meetings, with four of five decided by 13+ points; teams split pair of meetings here, with Titans’ last visit in ’06.
Redskins (3-5) @ Dolphins (1-7)— Miami is favored for first time this year; they’re an incredibly bad 6-29 vs spread last 35 times they were a home favorite. Hard to believe these teams met in two Super Bowls; home team won eight of other ten series games, with Redskins 0-4 on South Beach, losing by 3-2-1-7 points. Washington is 0-4 since its bye and was impotent in last two games, scoring one TD on 23 drives with two FGs tried and 10 3/outs. Skins are 1-3 on road, losing by 2-13-23 points, with only win at 1-7 Rams; they’ve turned ball over 14 times in last five games (-8). Dolphins are 0-3 at home, losing by 14-10-3 points; they led by 15 with 3:00 left in last home game but still lost. Last seven Miami games, six of last seven Redskin games stayed under the total.
Saints (6-3) @ Falcons (5-3)—Pre-bye road favorites are 6-0 SU (5-1 against spread) this year; Saints won/covered six of last eight pre-bye games. Atlanta won/covered last three games, scoring 28.3 ppg while running ball for 152.7 ypg; they scored 12-13-14 points (three TDs on 30 drives), 23+ in all five wins (18 TDs on 57 drives). New Orleans won eight of last ten series games in this underrated rivalry, winning four of last five visits here (won 26-23/17-14 in last two visits). Saints are 2-3 on road, losing last two on foreign soil, to Rams/ Bucs. Six of last seven series totals were 47+. Home teams are 5-0 vs spread in NFC South games this year, with four of the five games staying under total. Teams are 2-4 SU (dogs 0-2 vs spread) the week after playing the Colts; they are 5-1 SU, 22 as favorites week after playing the Bucs.
Lions (6-2) @ Bears (5-3)—This series has been swept last seven years; Detroit (-5.5) won first meeting 24-13 in Week 5 Monday nighter, just its third win in last 13 series games- they had 181 rushing yards, 214 passing, as Chicago started eight of ten drives 80+ yards from goal line. Lions are 4-0 on road this year, scoring 33 ppg (11 TDs on 47 drives). Bears won/covered last three games (all three at night); this is their first day game since Week 4. Chicago is 3-1 at home, winning by 18-5-29 points, with only loss to Packers. Home teams are 4-1 vs spread in NFC North games. Three of four Chicago home games went over total. Pre-bye road teams are 10-5 SU this season; under is 9-7 in those games (both teams were on road in London game). Lions converted on just 7 of last 39 third down plays.
Rams (1-7) @ Browns (3-5)—Cleveland coach Shurmur was Rams’ OC last couple years, so he has good insight on why team is so dreadful, but his Browns aren’t much better, losing four of last five games (win was 6-3 eyesore over Seattle). Browns are 1-3-1 as favorites this year, holding teams to 19-16-3 points in their wins- they allowed 20+ points in all five losses. Bradford returned at QB for St Louis last week and played well enough; this team moves ball (only 10 3/outs on last 46 drives, but also only five TDs (10 FG tries)). St Louis ran ball for 183-150 yards last two games, as Jackson looks healthy, but poor game management in last 2:00 cost them win in Arizona last week. Under is 4-1 in last five Ram games, 3-1 in Cleveland’s last four. Ram franchise actually started out in Cleveland, moving to LA in 1946.
Cardinals (2-6) @ Eagles (3-5)— Erratic Philly turned ball over 2+ times in six of last seven games (2-5); they’re 1-3 as home favorites this year, 7-9 since ’09. Since ’00, they’re 7-9 as double digit favorite. Arizona rookie Peterson has three punt return TDs in first eight NFL games, getting one in each of last two games- his presence will help Arizona field position- teams will start punting out-of-bounds so he can’t touch ball. Cardinals are 7-6-1 in last 14 games as road underdog, 2-1 this year, losing away games by 1-3-24 (@ Vikings)-3 points. NFC East non-divisional home favorites are just 2-7 vs spread. Last meeting was 32-25 Arizona win in ’08 playoffs; Redbirds lost three of last four visits here (losses by 25-24-28 points) with last win here in ’01. Three of four Arizona road games stayed under total.
Ravens (6-2) @ Seahawks (2-6)—Major trap/sandwich game for Baltimore after huge win at Heinz Field last week and with Bengals on deck; they lost 26-13 (-6) at Tennessee in game after their last Steeler win, back in Week 2. Ravens won five of last six games, but last two were by FG each, after their first four wins were all by 15+ points- they’re 2-2 on road, 4-3 as favorites, 1-2 as road faves (since ’05, they’re 6-13 as road favorite). Home team won last three series games, with Ravens losing 27-6 here in last meeting, in ’07. Seahawks are 0-3 since bye, losing by 3-22-10 points, with two TDs on 34 drives, none of which started in enemy territory. Seahawks have seven takeaways in their two wins (+3), four in six losses (-8). Six of eight Raven games went over total- they were held to 13-7 points in their two losses. Six of eight Seattle foes scored 23+ points.
Giants (6-2) @ 49ers (7-1)— Well-coached Niners are +12 in turnovers, with 2+ takeaways in 7 of 8 games, and only 7 giveaways all year; they held last three opponents under 70 yards rushing. One red flag for SF: of their last seven offensive TDs, only two of them covered more than half the field. Defense/special teams are carrying this team, as 10 of their last 46 drives started in enemy territory. 49ers are 3-0 as home favorite this year, winning by 16-45-10 points (lost 27-24 at home to Dallas as 3-point dog). Jerseyites won six of last seven games, with road wins at Philly (29-16, +8), Arizona (31-27, -1.5), Foxboro (24-20, +9), with Manning leading game-winning drives late in last- they won last three meetings with 49ers, by 18-18-12 points. 49ers’ last three games stayed under total.
Patriots (5-3) @ Jets (5-3)—Surging Jets won/covered last three games, outscoring opponents 51-17 in second half; six of their last 20 drives started in enemy territory. Sputtering Pats allowed 25-24 points in losing last two games; they’re 4-0 this year when giving up less than 24 points, 1-3 when they allow more. NE gained at least 7.3 ypa in first five games; they’ve been at 6.5 or below in last three games, as they lack explosive WR opposite Welker. Home side won five of last six series games; Jets (+8) lost 30-21 in Foxboro in Week 5; they were outrushed 152-97, outgained 446-255- NE converted 7-14 on 3rd down, Jets 3-11. Pats lost last two visits here, 16-9/28-14- they haven’t swept this series since their 18-1 season in 2007. Four of last five Jersey games stayed under total.
Vikings (2-6) @ Packers (8-0)—Defending champs are 3-0 as home favorites, winning by 8-26-21 points. Unbeaten Green Bay won 33-27 (-10) at Metrodome three weeks ago, despite Vikings outrushing them 218-114; Pack used 10-yard edge in average field position for win, as eight of 11 Viking drives started 80+ yards from goal line. 2-6 Minnesota has trailed at half in only two games; they’re 4-0 vs spread when they score 23+ points, 1-3 when they don’t. Divisional home favorites are 8-2 vs spread in NFC games. Pack is +11 in turnovers, taking ball away 2+ times in six of last seven games. Vikings lost four of last five visits here, losing by 2-34-5-4 points. Rookie QB Ponder is from Texas, played at Florida State, so a November night in Lambeau could be new experience for him. Four of last five series totals were 52+.