Hello Ace I am new to this forum but not to the game anyhow I have to thank you so much for ALL the help your posts have given me and that is in just one day!!!! You have helped in the art of handicapping the NFL in which I have been tearing my hair out going from forum to forum and found nothing but shite you are a breath of fresh air in this wonderful game of numbers thank you so much and I look forward to any emails that you so generously send out.
I'd like to second that thanks, Mr. Ace! Long time follower and fan, but new year, new computer- new handle! Looking forward to getting hot with you on the gridiron. Thanks also for the newsletters above. Any chance we may see Winning Points or Statfox before the weekend? If not, no biggee... I'm certainly ok with snooping around for them.
Also, and feel free to avoid this question if you would like, but did you happen to play different plays in the Hilton than your released plays through Docs? I just didnt see anyone who played those same five games and figured that maybe the Hilton lines provided value in a different direction. Just always curious if there was a different strategy for contests like that, versus individual straight bets. Thanks for your time and help as always
Also, and feel free to avoid this question if you would like, but did you happen to play different plays in the Hilton than your released plays through Docs? I just didnt see anyone who played those same five games and figured that maybe the Hilton lines provided value in a different direction. Just always curious if there was a different strategy for contests like that, versus individual straight bets. Thanks for your time and help as always
If you hit my name. Than view profile you will see my email address...I have winning point and will send it to you...it's one of the best sheets.
in the contest I have a partner... So two picks from me two from him and 1 we match....I don't have one by myself this year. The one that is partner also was in the top 20. Two out of the 4 years just like me....bad started only 3.5 points
Ace
If you hit my name. Than view profile you will see my email address...I have winning point and will send it to you...it's one of the best sheets.
in the contest I have a partner... So two picks from me two from him and 1 we match....I don't have one by myself this year. The one that is partner also was in the top 20. Two out of the 4 years just like me....bad started only 3.5 points
Ace
Thank you sir! Well, you know how it is... It's a marathon, not a sprint. I'll be pulling for you each week of course. These first couple weeks have been brutal on most handicappers I respect, so something tells me a reversion to the mean is in order!
I jumped on a couple team totals and second half numbers tonight. So far so good. Thank you for sharing your totals formula by the way... really enjoy adding tools to the arsenal and anxious to play around with it and my own numbers in CFB.
Thanks for the additional newsletters as well. If you dont mind me asking, do you recommend any others besides Winning Points? Either for their power rankings, key stats, formulas, or what not? I used to have a very solid CFB system using Power Plays statistics and the ol' Trace Fields handicapping manual, but havent tested it recently with all the dissension between Phil Steele and Northcoast, etc. Just wondering. Always good to cut out the fat for more efficiency. Thanks in advance again
there not showing WP statfox
http://www.mediafire.com/download/46mq6vckh8iruzm/STATFOX4.pdf
sports reporter
http://www.mediafire.com/download/8krcfct3f0iqhho/SP_REPORTER_Wk_4.pdf
http://www.mediafire.com/download/46mq6vckh8iruzm/STATFOX4.pdf
sports reporter
http://www.mediafire.com/download/8krcfct3f0iqhho/SP_REPORTER_Wk_4.pdf
[h=1]How Sharps are Betting This Weekend's NFL[/h]
SAN DIEGO AT TENNESSEE: Early action has seen a tug-of-war between Tennessee -3 and San Diego +3.5. Tennessee money is pointing to the fact that the Chargers have to play back-to-back games in the Eastern time zone after opening the season on a Monday Night. Angles players think the Titans are a steal at a field goal. There are some groups though who are impressed with how San Diego’s playing under their new head coach. Those groups have SD higher in their Power Ratings, which means anything at higher than +3 looks like a steal. Either sentiment would fade a public move away from the current range. Note that San Diego received a lot of late support last weekend, and that money won.
CLEVELAND AT MINNESOTA: Line movement here was keyed by the news that Brandon Weeden would be out this week and third-teamer Bobby Hoyer would get the start at quarterback. The adjusted line has risen past Minnesota -6 to Minnesota -6.5 in some places. Those who want to fade Hoyer on the road against a good defense are getting their money in early. We’re hearing that sharps would be interested in the Browns at +7.5, and possibly +7 if the public doesn’t get much involved in this game. There’s a “Christian Ponder shouldn’t be favored by a TD over anyone” sentiment that is positioned to come into play before kickoff.
TAMPA BAY AT NEW ENGLAND: Most stores are showing New England -7 as we go to press, with a trigger-finger ready to raise the line if the public starts betting the Pats. Sharps haven’t been betting the Pats because of all of their injuries. We’re talking about a team that could barely beat Buffalo and the Jets! Sharps did hit Tampa Bay pretty hard vs. New Orleans last week. Those tickets cashed, but it’s not like the Bucs were particularly impressive while covering. We’re hearing sharp money would come in on the Bucs at +8, and might settle for +7.5 if that’s the best they’ll see before kickoff. Note that a move above the seven would put New England in the two-team teaser window that sharps like to play. Sharps would be rooting for New England -1.5 or -2, but Tampa Bay +7.5 or +8.
HOUSTON AT BALTIMORE: If you see a line settled at 2.5 in the NFL for days, that’s telling you that sharps don’t like the favorite enough to move the line to the key number. We’ve heard though that sharps who were endorsing the Ravens in Week One and Week Two haven’t been impressed with what they’ve seen out of the gate. They have switched to using Baltimore in teasers at +8.5 rather than taking them as a team side. That would change if the public drives Houston up to the three. Sharps are a bit wary of both teams at the moment.
ST. LOUIS AT DALLAS: We haven’t seen much betting interest yet. Stores are showing either Dallas -3.5 of Dallas -4. St. Louis was hit hard by many sharps last week in Atlanta…in a game they failed to cover after falling way behind. Sharps also faded Dallas pretty hard last week with Kansas City, only to lose that bet as well. So, we know there’s generally pro-St. Louis and anti-Dallas sentiment amongst many syndicates. We wouldn’t be surprised to see St. Louis +4 and maybe even St. Louis +3.5 get hit hard over the weekend by a few Wise Guy groups.
ARIZONA AT NEW ORLEANS: This game is dancing around the teaser window…with stores posting a price that’s somewhat connected to their individual house rules on teasers. Those who don’t want teaser betters on home team New Orleans are dealing either -7 or -9. Those who make teasers expensive to play with additional juice are more commonly on New Orleans -7.5. Note that sharps faded the Saints last week…and many are telling us they’ve been impressed with Arizona out of the gate. Might be a game where sharps are on the dog at +7.5 or +8 while rooting for New Orleans in two-team teasers at a line below a field goal.
DETROIT AT WASHINGTON: Sharps soured on Washington quickly, after the Skins were drubbed so badly in the first half by Philadelphia (which happened again the following week at Green Bay). We saw strong market respect for the Lions against Minnesota and Arizona. But, the Lions didn’t impress in a loss as a road favorite down in the desert last week. Those who would normally bet the Lions here are hesitant because it’s their second straight road game and divisional rival Chicago is up next. Nobody sharp wants any part of the Redskins until they play a good game. Look for the Lions (+) to show up in some teasers. And, that will be true for any dog that settles just below a field goal. Assume that as a blanket statement now so we don’t have to keep repeating it!
GREEN BAY AT CINCINNATI: The Packers have been getting support all week as favorites of -1, -1.5, -2, and -2.5. When stores go to three, Cincinnati money starts coming in. That suggests a tug-of-war over the weekend…particularly if the public bets the favorite. Sharps who like Green Bay are already in at preferred lines. Cincinnati’s defense gets respect from sharps, and would draw continuing support at the key number of three.
NY GIANTS AT CAROLINA: Even though the Giants have struggled to avoid mistakes vs. Dallas and Denver, they have been receiving sharp support at +2.5 and +2 on the road at Carolina. Surprising that sharps didn’t wait to see if public money would take Carolina up to three. There wasn’t any time for that to even be a possibility. Sharp syndicates who had been interested in Carolina to start the season have jumped off that bandwagon based on what we’re hearing.
ATLANTA AT MIAMI: Miami drew interest at -1, -1.5 and even -2. We’re seeing Miami -2.5 in many stores now. It’s commonly assumed that Atlanta money would come in very strong at +3. Sportsbooks have to decide if they want to give the Wise Guys that bet, while also sweating all the two-team teasers that would include the Falcons. That early action is a meaningful sign that sharps are impressed with Miami out of the gate. Remember that in future weeks.
INDIANAPOLIS AT SAN FRANCISCO: This line opened at most stores above the key number of 10 (generally at SF -10.5). That tells you sportsbooks were expecting SF action, and weren’t looking to give away the key number. Sharps surprised oddsmakers by hitting Indianapolis at +10.5 (or anything higher). We’re generally seeing a solid ten everywhere at the moment…without any SF money coming in after the move downward. Our sources tell us sharps like Andrew Luck’s potential of either keeping this game close, or scoring in garbage time to get a late cover if the team falls behind by two touchdowns. Also relevant, San Francisco is in a divisional sandwich spot between Seattle and St. Louis…with that St. Louis game coming up quickly on Thursday Night.
JACKSONVILLE AT SEATTLE: The earliest openers in this projected blowout were around Seattle -17. That got pounded up immediately…so that the market has been flirting with Seattle -20 in the hours leading up to press time. There are many old school sharps who bet all double digit underdogs. Why did this line move against that sentiment? First, Jacksonville is playing its second straight game on the West Coast. Second, Jacksonville has no offense, which will make it very tough to score on the road against this great defense. Sharp money would come in on Jacksonville if the market solidifies at +20.
BUFFALO AT NY JETS: Depending on the store, this game has been hopping around in the range just below NYJ -3. Buffalo money would come in at the full field goal based on what we’re hearing. Sharps who like Geno Smith over E.J. Manuel are getting in at preferred lines now.
CHICAGO AT PITTSBURGH: A lot of similarities with Green Bay/Cincinnati, beyond the obvious battle of divisions. Sharps have shown support for the cheap road favorite, but home underdog money on a strong defense would come in at +3. Pittsburgh has fallen so far so fast!
OAKLAND AT DENVER (Monday Night): Not much sense of urgency for sharps with such a high line in a Monday Night game. Those looking to bet Oakland can wait for the best number before kickoff on the assumption that the public will want the TV favorite. Sharps considering Denver won’t see -14, and there just aren’t that many groups that would lay this high a number against an opponent that’s starting out well. It’s one thing to ask a great team to crush helpless Jacksonville. Oakland is 2-0 ATS, and will show up for a divisional rivalry game. Sharps are likely to hit the Raiders in the hours before kickoff, particularly if public money is lifting the number.
SAN DIEGO AT TENNESSEE: Early action has seen a tug-of-war between Tennessee -3 and San Diego +3.5. Tennessee money is pointing to the fact that the Chargers have to play back-to-back games in the Eastern time zone after opening the season on a Monday Night. Angles players think the Titans are a steal at a field goal. There are some groups though who are impressed with how San Diego’s playing under their new head coach. Those groups have SD higher in their Power Ratings, which means anything at higher than +3 looks like a steal. Either sentiment would fade a public move away from the current range. Note that San Diego received a lot of late support last weekend, and that money won.
CLEVELAND AT MINNESOTA: Line movement here was keyed by the news that Brandon Weeden would be out this week and third-teamer Bobby Hoyer would get the start at quarterback. The adjusted line has risen past Minnesota -6 to Minnesota -6.5 in some places. Those who want to fade Hoyer on the road against a good defense are getting their money in early. We’re hearing that sharps would be interested in the Browns at +7.5, and possibly +7 if the public doesn’t get much involved in this game. There’s a “Christian Ponder shouldn’t be favored by a TD over anyone” sentiment that is positioned to come into play before kickoff.
TAMPA BAY AT NEW ENGLAND: Most stores are showing New England -7 as we go to press, with a trigger-finger ready to raise the line if the public starts betting the Pats. Sharps haven’t been betting the Pats because of all of their injuries. We’re talking about a team that could barely beat Buffalo and the Jets! Sharps did hit Tampa Bay pretty hard vs. New Orleans last week. Those tickets cashed, but it’s not like the Bucs were particularly impressive while covering. We’re hearing sharp money would come in on the Bucs at +8, and might settle for +7.5 if that’s the best they’ll see before kickoff. Note that a move above the seven would put New England in the two-team teaser window that sharps like to play. Sharps would be rooting for New England -1.5 or -2, but Tampa Bay +7.5 or +8.
HOUSTON AT BALTIMORE: If you see a line settled at 2.5 in the NFL for days, that’s telling you that sharps don’t like the favorite enough to move the line to the key number. We’ve heard though that sharps who were endorsing the Ravens in Week One and Week Two haven’t been impressed with what they’ve seen out of the gate. They have switched to using Baltimore in teasers at +8.5 rather than taking them as a team side. That would change if the public drives Houston up to the three. Sharps are a bit wary of both teams at the moment.
ST. LOUIS AT DALLAS: We haven’t seen much betting interest yet. Stores are showing either Dallas -3.5 of Dallas -4. St. Louis was hit hard by many sharps last week in Atlanta…in a game they failed to cover after falling way behind. Sharps also faded Dallas pretty hard last week with Kansas City, only to lose that bet as well. So, we know there’s generally pro-St. Louis and anti-Dallas sentiment amongst many syndicates. We wouldn’t be surprised to see St. Louis +4 and maybe even St. Louis +3.5 get hit hard over the weekend by a few Wise Guy groups.
ARIZONA AT NEW ORLEANS: This game is dancing around the teaser window…with stores posting a price that’s somewhat connected to their individual house rules on teasers. Those who don’t want teaser betters on home team New Orleans are dealing either -7 or -9. Those who make teasers expensive to play with additional juice are more commonly on New Orleans -7.5. Note that sharps faded the Saints last week…and many are telling us they’ve been impressed with Arizona out of the gate. Might be a game where sharps are on the dog at +7.5 or +8 while rooting for New Orleans in two-team teasers at a line below a field goal.
DETROIT AT WASHINGTON: Sharps soured on Washington quickly, after the Skins were drubbed so badly in the first half by Philadelphia (which happened again the following week at Green Bay). We saw strong market respect for the Lions against Minnesota and Arizona. But, the Lions didn’t impress in a loss as a road favorite down in the desert last week. Those who would normally bet the Lions here are hesitant because it’s their second straight road game and divisional rival Chicago is up next. Nobody sharp wants any part of the Redskins until they play a good game. Look for the Lions (+) to show up in some teasers. And, that will be true for any dog that settles just below a field goal. Assume that as a blanket statement now so we don’t have to keep repeating it!
GREEN BAY AT CINCINNATI: The Packers have been getting support all week as favorites of -1, -1.5, -2, and -2.5. When stores go to three, Cincinnati money starts coming in. That suggests a tug-of-war over the weekend…particularly if the public bets the favorite. Sharps who like Green Bay are already in at preferred lines. Cincinnati’s defense gets respect from sharps, and would draw continuing support at the key number of three.
NY GIANTS AT CAROLINA: Even though the Giants have struggled to avoid mistakes vs. Dallas and Denver, they have been receiving sharp support at +2.5 and +2 on the road at Carolina. Surprising that sharps didn’t wait to see if public money would take Carolina up to three. There wasn’t any time for that to even be a possibility. Sharp syndicates who had been interested in Carolina to start the season have jumped off that bandwagon based on what we’re hearing.
ATLANTA AT MIAMI: Miami drew interest at -1, -1.5 and even -2. We’re seeing Miami -2.5 in many stores now. It’s commonly assumed that Atlanta money would come in very strong at +3. Sportsbooks have to decide if they want to give the Wise Guys that bet, while also sweating all the two-team teasers that would include the Falcons. That early action is a meaningful sign that sharps are impressed with Miami out of the gate. Remember that in future weeks.
INDIANAPOLIS AT SAN FRANCISCO: This line opened at most stores above the key number of 10 (generally at SF -10.5). That tells you sportsbooks were expecting SF action, and weren’t looking to give away the key number. Sharps surprised oddsmakers by hitting Indianapolis at +10.5 (or anything higher). We’re generally seeing a solid ten everywhere at the moment…without any SF money coming in after the move downward. Our sources tell us sharps like Andrew Luck’s potential of either keeping this game close, or scoring in garbage time to get a late cover if the team falls behind by two touchdowns. Also relevant, San Francisco is in a divisional sandwich spot between Seattle and St. Louis…with that St. Louis game coming up quickly on Thursday Night.
JACKSONVILLE AT SEATTLE: The earliest openers in this projected blowout were around Seattle -17. That got pounded up immediately…so that the market has been flirting with Seattle -20 in the hours leading up to press time. There are many old school sharps who bet all double digit underdogs. Why did this line move against that sentiment? First, Jacksonville is playing its second straight game on the West Coast. Second, Jacksonville has no offense, which will make it very tough to score on the road against this great defense. Sharp money would come in on Jacksonville if the market solidifies at +20.
BUFFALO AT NY JETS: Depending on the store, this game has been hopping around in the range just below NYJ -3. Buffalo money would come in at the full field goal based on what we’re hearing. Sharps who like Geno Smith over E.J. Manuel are getting in at preferred lines now.
CHICAGO AT PITTSBURGH: A lot of similarities with Green Bay/Cincinnati, beyond the obvious battle of divisions. Sharps have shown support for the cheap road favorite, but home underdog money on a strong defense would come in at +3. Pittsburgh has fallen so far so fast!
OAKLAND AT DENVER (Monday Night): Not much sense of urgency for sharps with such a high line in a Monday Night game. Those looking to bet Oakland can wait for the best number before kickoff on the assumption that the public will want the TV favorite. Sharps considering Denver won’t see -14, and there just aren’t that many groups that would lay this high a number against an opponent that’s starting out well. It’s one thing to ask a great team to crush helpless Jacksonville. Oakland is 2-0 ATS, and will show up for a divisional rivalry game. Sharps are likely to hit the Raiders in the hours before kickoff, particularly if public money is lifting the number.
Ace you said "Thanks for the kind words....look at the promo on the top of my forum. All you have to do is put money in a sports book and you can see my plays on Thursday.if you have any ??? If I can help ...I will. Ace"
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Ace, does a reload count......or is it money in a new sportsbook?
thanks
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Ace, does a reload count......or is it money in a new sportsbook?
thanks
$2300.00 -105 Take #397 Houston (-2.5) over Baltimore (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 22)
This play is from my NFL 411 System.
This line jumped out at me. And the stats from my NFL 411 System backed it up. Baltimore is not used to being a home underdog. This is a very unfamiliar role for them. But Houston has been better the first two weeks of the season and is 2-0. The Ravens struggled with a bad Cleveland team and was blown out by Denver. This Baltimore team is not as strong as the one that won the championship last year. And Houston beat Baltimore 43-13 last year at home in a game that was a blowout from start to finish. The oddsmakers remember that game even if the public bettors don't. The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings and Houston has a big advantage on offense and defense. Joe Flacco is going to continue to struggle and the Ravens could be without Ray Rice in this game. I will go with the books with this one. Take Houston.
$2200.00 -105 Take #405 Green Bay (-2.5) over Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 22)
This play is from my NFL 411 System.
Both of these teams are coming off big wins. Green Bay blew out Washington in its home opener. Cincinnati beat Pittsburgh on Monday Night Football. The Bengals are 0-1 against the NFC North teams this year after losing at Chicago to open the season. The Packers found their ground game last week with James Starks. If they get the running game going with Aaron Rodgers and the passing game this team will be tough to beat. Mike McCarthy is 32-24 in his career on the road. These Packers teams can win away from home. And I think that the Bengals will have a letdown after a big Monday Night Football win and cover. This line opened with the Bengals as a small favorite. But all the sharp money came in on the Packers and the line has moved. I smell something cooking. And my numbers back it up. Take the Packers here.
$800.00 -105 Take #407 New York Giants (+1) over Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 22)
This is a matchup of teams that are both 0-2. Both teams need this game. But I will back the Giants in this one. They have a proven coach and proven quarterback. There is too much uncertainty in the Carolina locker room. And the Panthers have lost two heartbreakers to start the season. I am not sure how they will bounce back. The Giants beat Carolina 36-7 last year when these two teams met in Charlotte. I think that they can do the same thing here. The Giants are 4-1 ATS in this series and I think that they will snap a 0-5 ATS fall this season. The Panthers are just 4-18 in games in the first half of the year in the past three seasons and their early season struggles continue. The Giants are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog and 6-1 ATS when they are an underdog off a loss. Take the Giants.
This play is from my NFL 411 System.
This line jumped out at me. And the stats from my NFL 411 System backed it up. Baltimore is not used to being a home underdog. This is a very unfamiliar role for them. But Houston has been better the first two weeks of the season and is 2-0. The Ravens struggled with a bad Cleveland team and was blown out by Denver. This Baltimore team is not as strong as the one that won the championship last year. And Houston beat Baltimore 43-13 last year at home in a game that was a blowout from start to finish. The oddsmakers remember that game even if the public bettors don't. The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings and Houston has a big advantage on offense and defense. Joe Flacco is going to continue to struggle and the Ravens could be without Ray Rice in this game. I will go with the books with this one. Take Houston.
$2200.00 -105 Take #405 Green Bay (-2.5) over Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 22)
This play is from my NFL 411 System.
Both of these teams are coming off big wins. Green Bay blew out Washington in its home opener. Cincinnati beat Pittsburgh on Monday Night Football. The Bengals are 0-1 against the NFC North teams this year after losing at Chicago to open the season. The Packers found their ground game last week with James Starks. If they get the running game going with Aaron Rodgers and the passing game this team will be tough to beat. Mike McCarthy is 32-24 in his career on the road. These Packers teams can win away from home. And I think that the Bengals will have a letdown after a big Monday Night Football win and cover. This line opened with the Bengals as a small favorite. But all the sharp money came in on the Packers and the line has moved. I smell something cooking. And my numbers back it up. Take the Packers here.
$800.00 -105 Take #407 New York Giants (+1) over Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 22)
This is a matchup of teams that are both 0-2. Both teams need this game. But I will back the Giants in this one. They have a proven coach and proven quarterback. There is too much uncertainty in the Carolina locker room. And the Panthers have lost two heartbreakers to start the season. I am not sure how they will bounce back. The Giants beat Carolina 36-7 last year when these two teams met in Charlotte. I think that they can do the same thing here. The Giants are 4-1 ATS in this series and I think that they will snap a 0-5 ATS fall this season. The Panthers are just 4-18 in games in the first half of the year in the past three seasons and their early season struggles continue. The Giants are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog and 6-1 ATS when they are an underdog off a loss. Take the Giants.
