Exbookie School On My Line For The Nfl Doing It On Paper!!!!

[teamfball]

Will a statistically based system intended for the NFL work for the CFL..?

Just 1-2 on the 6 point basic plays last week. kind ‘of expected. Looking back to the NFL testing those 6 to 8 point basic plays over 5 years came in under 50% at 69-73. So it certainly looks like I’ll need to focus just on the 11 point investment plays as well as the always quality Top AFS plays. Honestly, this system has never provided a constant level of action type plays. But I’ve been willing to wait for investment type opportunities.

For the second time in two weeks it sets up to be a crucial spot with 3 solid AFS qualifiers this week. MON, SAS, HAM.
If laying -2.5 or less = Top AFS play
If laying -6.5 to -3 = Standard AFS play
If laying -7 or more = Basic AFS lean

AFSML for this week, all should be home chalk.
Yes even the 0-9 Roughriders of Saskatchewan, so says the system.
The forthcoming lines will dictate whether any are actually system plays.

MONTREAL	-12.8
SASKATCHEWAN	-10.6
HAMILTON	-10.6
CALGARY	-5.8

………….The testing will continue week 11……

0-1, Basic AFS leans
0-0, Standard AFS plays
2-1, Top investment AFS plays, 67% target =78%
-------------------------------------------
AFSML YTD record
13-15, Games within 6 point target ML threshold. 46%
21-7 Games within 9 points as suggested by Ace, 75%
3-0, 4 point leans
2-7, 6 point basic plays
1-0, 9 point top plays
4-2, 11 point investment plays, 67% target =77%
5-2, 9+ point plays as suggested by Ace
------------------------------------------
1-1, AFS/AFSML consensus plays, 50% target =90%

 

[teamfball]

Will a statistically based system intended for the NFL work for the CFL..?

FWIW, I’ll be south of the boarder next week a little preseason R&R. I expect to have an internet connection so I will run the numbers for my own benefit, just not sure if anyone cares enough for me to post the results. I’m thinking I will only post if any top / investment plays are in play.
………….The testing continues week 11……

-5.5		MONTREAL	-12.8	-7.3
-3.5		SASKATCHEWAN	-10.6	-7.1
-7.5		HAMILTON	-10.6	-3.1
-5		CALGARY	-5.8	-0.8

Again, nothing exciting about this weeks plays. No real wager worthy top plays but two basic 6pt AFSML plays…….Montreal-5.5, Saskatchewan-3.5. On the AFS side the lines are too high for me to make a wager. Note to self, ‘don’t be an action junkie’ this season….

0-1, Basic AFS leans…….Montreal-5.5, Saskatchewan-3.5…pending
0-0, Standard AFS plays…….Hamilton-7.5…pending
2-1, Top investment AFS plays, 67% target =78%
-------------------------------------------
AFSML YTD record
15-17, Games within 6 point target ML threshold. 47%
25-7 Games within 9 points as suggested by Ace, 78%
3-0, 4 point leans
2-7, 6 point basic plays…….Montreal-5.5, Saskatchewan-3.5…pending
1-0, 9 point top plays
4-2, 11 point investment plays, 67% target =77%
5-2, 9+ point plays as suggested by Ace
------------------------------------------
1-1, AFS/AFSML consensus plays, 50% target =90%

 

[teamfball]

0-1, Basic AFS leans…….Montreal-5.5, Saskatchewan-3.5…pending
0-0, Standard AFS plays…….Hamilton-7.5…pending

Sorry...had the plays inverted.
0-1, Basic AFS leans…….Hamilton-7.5…pending
0-0, Standard AFS plays…….Montreal-5.5, Saskatchewan-3.5…pending

 

[teamfball]

Hola from Mexico. 2-1 last week. Weird week three of four games are home/away , ie. same opponent as last week, not sure how that dynamic works, but makes sense that we have similar sides this week.
1-1, Basic AFS leans
1-1, Standard AFS plays....Hamilton-3.5----pending.
2-1, Top investment AFS plays, 67% target =78% ... Saskatchewan-1…pending
-------------------------------------------
AFSML YTD record
17-19, Games within 6 point target ML threshold. 47%
29-7 Games within 9 points as suggested by Ace, 80%
3-0, 4 point leans....Calgary+1.5, Ottawa+4....pending
2-7, 6 point basic plays…….Hamilton-3.5, Saskatchewan-1…pending
1-0, 9 point top plays
4-2, 11 point investment plays, 67% target =77%
5-2, 9+ point plays as suggested by Ace
------------------------------------------
1-1, AFS/AFSML consensus plays, 50% target =90%

 

[teamfball]

2-2 last week but sadly the AFS investment play was a non-cover.
No standouts this week, just two leans and one basic play.

1-1, Basic AFS leans
2-1, Standard AFS plays
2-2, Top investment AFS plays, 50% target =78%
-------------------------------------------
AFSML YTD record
20-20, Games within 6 point target ML threshold. 50%
33-7 Games within 9 points as suggested by Ace, 82%
4-1, 4 point leans……BC+11.5….Ottawa+2-----pending
3-8, 6 point basic plays…..Winnipeg+10-----pending
1-0, 9 point top plays
4-2, 11 point investment plays, 67% target =77%
5-2, 9+ point plays as suggested by Ace
------------------------------------------
1-1, AFS/AFSML consensus plays, 50% target =90%

 

[teamfball]

Will a statistically based system intended for the NFL work for the CFL..?

1-2 last week on leans and a basic, and another half point loss.
This week the system has an 11 point investment play …...BC+11.5 --pending—Note QB** and a Basic AFS lean……Calgary-8.5 ----pending

Overall I’m disappointed with the original AFS plays at 2-2, last year these were both more plentiful and fruitful at 6-2. However, the added AFSML plays over the 9 point threshold have nearly matched the expected result being similar to my 5 year NFL testing…**Note; a British Columbia cover this week would be a nice feather in the cap for the system. However, the system doesn’t know that the BC Lions lost their QB a few weeks back and now has a very feeble offence.

Going forward much like last year, I expect to see few if any plays between now and seasons end. It’s got to be this damned league dynamic with only nine teams and a seemingly perpetual round robin schedule. The lines are getting sharper and they become more and more congruent to the AFS values the longer this continues. Last year the covers came early 5-0 to be exact and 1-2 in the later weeks. I will continue this experiment but not here…in this thread. Soon the true MyLine followers will need this space, and I certainly don’t want to over stay my welcome. Thanks for watching …. I can barely wait for NFL week 4 and those NFL investment plays. You can follow along here…https://www.pickmonitor.com/user/teamfball2_5

1-1, Basic AFS leans……Calgary-8.5 ----pending
2-1, Standard AFS plays
2-2, Top investment AFS plays, 50% target =78%
-------------------------------------------
AFSML YTD record
23-21, Games within 6 point target ML threshold. 52%
36-8, Games within 9 points as suggested by Ace, 82%
5-2, 4 point leans
3-9, 6 point basic plays
1-0, 9 point top plays
4-2, 11 point investment plays, 67% target =77%...BC+11.5 –pending—Note QB**
5-2, 9+ point plays as suggested by Ace =71%
------------------------------------------
1-1, AFS/AFSML consensus plays, 50% target =90%

 

[ACE-ACE]

1st week if you use perseason we are now talking about NFL

MYLINE games with value vs the real line
car-12........value 8.5
nyj -12..............+ 9.5
tenn-7...............+10.5
NE -2.........value for tb +11.5
kc-1..................+8

5 with value but look close at who's in or out of the game
i will keep track of just what myline show and I will keep track base on if I use the play

Ace

 

[ACE-ACE]

In the past we alway look for value of +6.......this year I'm setting it at +8 value.....thinking it should be 9....but for now it's 8

 

[teamfball]

we are now talking about NFL
..this year I'm setting it at +8 value.....thinking it should be 9....but for now it's 8

Just for comparison my AFS-Myline version shows some similarity.
Greater than 8 = SD, CAR, PIT
My target value is 11. TEN, CIN, NYJ

For what it’s worth, it’s still at least one week too early to put any stock in theses values.
With just 2 games of data the variance is just too great. Looking at my five years of testing week 3 in all five years tested is littered with +9 +11 and even +15’s and greater. Wait just 1 more week till wk4 and I think there were only three +11’s in five years. Using preseason week 3 might be worth while if you could isolate just the first half, otherwise there’s too much variance between the halves of those preseason games IMO.

 

[ACE-ACE]

Myline did 2-3 week 3. I did base on those 1-1

this week only 1 so far
pit with a value of +10......but it void because of been being out. Still waiting on 3 more line

week 4 it don't look like any value over+8

 

[ACE-ACE]

Only one this week with value of over 8
Jax +9. +11 value

 

[ACE-ACE]

Myline record is 3-3. Me using this system. 2-1

find the value than read between the lines to find the best edge

 

[rfb]

myline numbers for the week show 1 game with value

NYG +4.5

good luck

 

[teamfball]

Hum? I see more.
My sheet is 5-3-1 since week 4 with value of 6 or more.
No preseason and no home field, haven't had time to do that yet.
Can we compare team numbers, honestly I haven't double checked this.
I'll email my team list to you. Thanks in advance.

View attachment 17733

 

[ACE-ACE]

Two this week with value over +8
Car. +11.5
nyg +8


Chi i have DET -1.5. No value. You must use 2 for home until week 10 than 3 points for home
i do use perseason

 

[aichdee]

Hum? I see more.
My sheet is 5-3-1 since week 4 with value of 6 or more.
No preseason and no home field, haven't had time to do that yet.
Can we compare team numbers, honestly I haven't double checked this.
I'll email my team list to you. Thanks in advance.

View attachment 17733

rfb is using my sheet, but must have missed a few of the value plays. I have the same as you with no preseason and no home field.

I can e-mail you my sheet if you pm me.

 

[teamfball]

rfb is using my sheet, but must have missed a few of the value plays. I have the same as you with no preseason and no home field.

I can e-mail you my sheet if you pm me.

Thanks but RFB has already confirmed our numbers are the same, so not sure how or why he has differences.
You could ask him for my email I don't have pm privileges here.......a long story..!!

 

[teamfball]

You must use 2 for home until week 10 than 3 points for home, i do use perseason

Okay, I’m going to make time and add home field but not preseason for reasons previously discussed. However before I expend any energy on this let’s review the Carolina game since we both have them at +11.5 using different methods.

6​	20151018​	Panthers	Seahawks	6.5​	4.973​	11.47​	Panthers​
6​	20151018​	Seahawks	Panthers	-6.5​	-4.97​	-11.5​

My data set shows that CAR wins the game by 5, and conversely SEA losses the game by 5. Then applying the line of 6.5 CAR is projected to cover by 11.5, so again the opponent SEA must be the exact opposite and is anticipated to miss a cover by 11.5.

At this point I’m assuming I should subtract 2 points from CAR and add 2 points to SEA for a final MyLine value of only 9.5 for CAR. And obviously, SEA would be anticipated to miss the cover by 9.5.

If this is correct, then your added preseason data gives CAR two additional points.
Please advise if I got this straight.

 

[ACE-ACE]

Okay, I’m going to make time and add home field but not preseason for reasons previously discussed. However before I expend any energy on this let’s review the Carolina game since we both have them at +11.5 using different methods.

6​	20151018​	Panthers	Seahawks	6.5​	4.973​	11.47​	Panthers​
6​	20151018​	Seahawks	Panthers	-6.5​	-4.97​	-11.5​

My data set shows that CAR wins the game by 5, and conversely SEA losses the game by 5. Then applying the line of 6.5 CAR is projected to cover by 11.5, so again the opponent SEA must be the exact opposite and is anticipated to miss a cover by 11.5.

At this point I’m assuming I should subtract 2 points from CAR and add 2 points to SEA for a final MyLine value of only 9.5 for CAR. And obviously, SEA would be anticipated to miss the cover by 9.5.

If this is correct, then your added preseason data gives CAR two additional points.
Please advise if I got this straight.

Thats ts how you do it.....

 

[teamfball]

Got it working just need to know ......
Please clarify……..is it 1-2 or 2-3
Also, week 10 gets the lower and week 11 gets the higher number, correct?

You guys need to add I point to the home team before week 11. Next week starts adding two points to the home team. Keep that in mind.
Ace

You must use 2 for home until week 10 than 3 points for home,