Exbookie School On My Line For The Nfl Doing It On Paper!!!!

[teamfball]

Hope this helps.

I appreciate you sharing your approach. It made me pause and question my methods.

I was able to duplicate your percentages using the last 5 years of data for TOP 64% and turnovers 77%. Then I checked my top sat ANY/A, adjusted net yards per pass attempt and it comes in at 75%. I still maintain that ANY/A is the most predictable of the three. In the end I believe your brand of research supports my work. I’m running low on time this morning, but I plan to check rushing and sacks as well as all the other criteria I use in my system.

Thanks jgm, …..this will be a much better discussion with your input.
If you have time would you confirm my findings on ANY/A….?
The formula can be found here, http://www.pro-football-reference.com/about/glossary.htm Ooh… but also add how many times the QB was sacked like this, (pass yards + 20*(pass TD) - 45*(interceptions thrown))/(passing attempts + times sacked)

 

[jgm4661]

Thanks jgm, …..this will be a much better discussion with your input.
If you have time would you confirm my findings on ANY/A….?
The formula can be found here, http://www.pro-football-reference.com/about/glossary.htm Ooh… but also add how many times the QB was sacked like this, (pass yards + 20*(pass TD) - 45*(interceptions thrown))/(passing attempts + times sacked)

Team,

That is another very good stat. I use a model that predicts points, sacks, RY, PY etc for each team in each game so tend to look at the big picture and what jumps out using the metrics I mentioned earlier. Ie dogs who can score and run the ball etc, who gets more sacks etc

The db has a similar stat called YPPA - Yards per pass play attempt. it is (yards - sacked yards lost)/attempts

The team w the greater YPPA cover 70% ATS.

The db is here btw http://killersports.com/nfl/home You have to register now but can use any email.

 

[teamfball]

Will a statistically based system intended for the NFL work for the CFL..?

Well last week was not what I hoped for, losing both basic 6 point plays. But the real experiment begins this week with two 11 point investment plays. If these were NFL plays I’d be on them very heavy. Since this is an experiment and I’m not up to speed with CFL, I just plan small wagers on Saskatchewan +10 and Montreal +4.5.

Caution, these are system plays only, just the plays without even looking at injury status or any additional handicapping. A better explanation can be found here, https://www.pickmonitor.com/user/teamfball2_5 The system nailed the other two games, lines at -5 and -4. But so far I’m disappointed with the poor showing 58% of system predictions within 6 points. NFL averages a nice 73%

YTD record
0-0, Basic AFS plays
0-0, Top AFS plays
-------------------------------------------
7-5, Games within 6 point target ML threshold.
2-0, 4 point leans
0-2, 6 point basic plays
0-0, 9 point top plays
1-0, 11 point investment plays --- Saskatchewan +10 and Montreal +4.5 pending

 

[ACE-ACE]

Well last week was not what I hoped for, losing both basic 6 point plays. But the real experiment begins this week with two 11 point investment plays. If these were NFL plays I’d be on them very heavy. Since this is an experiment and I’m not up to speed with CFL, I just plan small wagers on Saskatchewan +10 and Montreal +4.5.

Caution, these are system plays only, just the plays without even looking at injury status or any additional handicapping. A better explanation can be found here, https://www.pickmonitor.com/user/teamfball2_5 The system nailed the other two games, lines at -5 and -4. But so far I’m disappointed with the poor showing 58% of system predictions within 6 points. NFL averages a nice 73%

YTD record
0-0, Basic AFS plays
0-0, Top AFS plays
-------------------------------------------
7-5, Games within 6 point target ML threshold.
2-0, 4 point leans
0-2, 6 point basic plays
0-0, 9 point top plays
1-0, 11 point investment plays --- Saskatchewan +10 and Montreal +4.5 pending

Been watching...I will toss a small bone on those two plays. I feel different rules in CFL. Only 3 downs and more yards on the field......I would say 9 or higher in this league.

 

[ACE-ACE]

What the break down of the 4 stats that make those two plays +11 edge?

 

[teamfball]

Maybe I shouldn’t be posting this stuff here like I mentioned previously.

Out of respect to those looking for MyLine information I will not be posting these plays in this thread even though the concept is similar and the inspiration to develop it was found here.

But you did invite me to hang around.
Right now I’m not willing to share the details because I believe I’ve got something special. This has been 6 years in the making and dominant enough for me let go of the 99 system. AFS is to me what 411 is to you. So if you or any of the regulars of this thread think I should move on, I understand.

Did you catch this………?

Ace;
I’m not sure you understand my method to obtain AFS and AFSML plays. You have two separate systems 411 and MyLine. I only have one system AFS an acronym for Acquired Football Strategies. Here’s some food for thought, have you ever tried to convert your 411 system scoring into a game line? That’s more or less what I do with AFS. I have so much faith in the AFS scoring categories; I score it similar to your 411 finding favorites with lower lines. But when I translate those scores into a line for the game, underdogs prevail.

I will share this. ML has 4, 99 has 27, 411 has 38 but AFS has but 9. Only Penalties and ‘turnovers but with a much different measure’ make it similar to MyLine.

 

[teamfball]

Been watching...I will toss a small bone on those two plays. I feel different rules in CFL. Only 3 downs and more yards on the field......I would say 9 or higher in this league.

Forgot to say thanks for the support. Hope we cash but it's more about the system finding the gems for me.

 

[ACE-ACE]

Maybe I shouldn’t be posting this stuff here like I mentioned previously.

But you did invite me to hang around.
Right now I’m not willing to share the details because I believe I’ve got something special. This has been 6 years in the making and dominant enough for me let go of the 99 system. AFS is to me what 411 is to you. So if you or any of the regulars of this thread think I should move on, I understand.

Did you catch this………?

I will share this. ML has 4, 99 has 27, 411 has 38 but AFS has but 9. Only Penalties and ‘turnovers but with a much different measure’ make it similar to MyLine.

I can respect that.....I thought you were doing CFL Base on myline and trying to find value....all I said was what the myline numbers. So you are doing cfl base on AFS.?
Please feel free to share your picks in this thread....I will be watching and hoping you do well.

by the way 411 has 44 as of two years ago. Only move % up 2.5%

 

[teamfball]

Will a statistically based system intended for the NFL work for the CFL..?

A below par week 1-1 with top 11 point plays. I say below par because in 5 year NFL testing the 11pt. plays covered at a 77% rate. https://www.pickmonitor.com/user/teamfball2_5 Remember, these are just system plays, meaning it’s not my intent to handicap. So if Saskatchewan’s starting QB is a 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] stringer in his first start against the best defense…..just saying even a hack handicapper could find their way off that play. Additionally, this is NOT Ace’s MyLine system, but my personal and believed to be improved AFSML system.

The testing continues week 7 with three notables;

• BC -PK, a 4 point lean
• Saskatchewan +9.5, a 9 point top play, note QB situation. However, this is a system play and will count cover or not.
• Montreal –PK, a 11 point investment play; Note this qualifies with both my systems and therefore a consensus play, projected to cover at 90%.

Caution, these are system plays only, just the plays without even looking at injury status or any additional handicapping. The system nailed the Hamilton game at -7. But so far I’m very disappointed with the poor showing 56% of system predictions within 6 points. NFL averages a nice 73%

AFSML YTD record
0-0, Basic AFS plays
0-0, Top AFS plays--- Montreal pending
-------------------------------------------
9-7, Games within 6 point target ML threshold. 56%
2-0, 4 point leans --- BC pending
0-2, 6 point basic plays
0-0, 9 point top plays --- Saskatchewan pending
2-1, 11 point investment plays --- Montreal pending

 

[teamfball]

Will a statistically based system intended for the NFL work for the CFL..?

The selections were 2-1 for the weekend but a distressing consensus loss for the system.
My challenge will be to keep this CFL experiment detached from what happens when week 4 NFL rolls around. I actually watched most of the game and while a victory and cover was well within reach for Montreal, it’s very obvious why these QB’s aren’t in the NFL. That similar consensus play has been 12-0 last 3 years in the NFL. https://www.pickmonitor.com/user/teamfball2_5 On a good note the system identified an apparent weak opening line as Montreal closed at -2.5 and caused the play to fall from the 11 point investment play but will remain an 11pt play for the record. . Conversely, the BC cover actually turned in to a 6 point basic play by virtue of the line moving to +2. Likewise, it will only be counted as the original 4 point lean.


The testing will continue week 8……

AFSML YTD record
0-0, Basic AFS plays
0-1, Top AFS plays
-------------------------------------------
9-7, Games within 6 point target ML threshold. 56%
3-0, 4 point leans
0-2, 6 point basic plays
1-0, 9 point top plays
2-2, 11 point investment plays

 

[teamfball]

Will a statistically based system intended for the NFL work for the CFL..?

Projected lines week 8 CFL

EDMONTON
MONTREAL	-6.4
TORONTO	-2.6
WINNIPEG
BRITISH COLUMBIA
HAMILTON	-2.2
OTTAWA
CALGARY	-0.8

 

[teamfball]

Will a statistically based system intended for the NFL work for the CFL..?

The testing continues week 8 with all four games in play.

• Toronto +2.5, a 4 point lean
• Montreal +1, BC +8.5, Ottawa +8 all 6 point basic plays

Caution, these are system plays only, just the plays without even looking at injury status or any additional handicapping.

AFSML YTD record
0-0, Basic AFS plays
0-1, Top AFS plays
-------------------------------------------
10-10, Games within 6 point target ML threshold. 50%
3-0, 4 point leans --- Toronto pending
0-2, 6 point basic plays--- Montreal, BC, Ottawa pending
1-0, 9 point top plays
2-2, 11 point investment plays
------------------------------------------

Been watching...Only 3 downs and more yards on the field......I would say 9 or higher in this league.

15-5 Games within 9 points as suggested by Ace, 75%

 

[teamfball]

Will a statistically based system intended for the NFL work for the CFL..?

In all fairness, it looks like I jumped the gun with the Toronto line. VegasInsiders showed a +2.5 when I posted but I’m sure that was never available to the public. So Toronto at -6 no falls off the lean play list.

VI CONSENSUS LINE MOVEMENTS
Date	Time	Fav	Dog
10-Aug	2:25pm	WIN-2.5 -110	TOR+2.5 -110
11-Aug	2:00pm	WIN-2.5 -110	TOR+2.5 -110
12-Aug	3:15pm	TOR-6.5 -110	WIN+6.5 -110
12-Aug	4:05pm	TOR-6.5 -110	WIN+6.5 -110
12-Aug	5:15pm	TOR-6.5 -110	WIN+6.5 -110
12-Aug	5:25pm	TOR-6 -110	WIN+6 -110
12-Aug	5:55pm	TOR-6 -110	WIN+6 -110
12-Aug	6:00pm	TOR-6 -110	WIN+6 -110
12-Aug	6:15pm	TOR-6 -110	WIN+6 -110
12-Aug	6:30pm	TOR-6 -110	WIN+6 -110
13-Aug	9:30am	TOR-6 -110	WIN+6 -110
13-Aug	12:25pm	TOR-6 -110	WIN+6 -110
13-Aug	1:55pm	TOR-6 -110	WIN+6 -110

• Toronto -6, ------------No play---------------
• Montreal +1, BC +8.5, Ottawa +8 all 6 point basic plays

Also for the second week in a row the system has identified a weak opening line for Montreal. Now you may think a swing from +1 to -1 is no big deal, and you’d be correct in the NFL but in the CFL 1 is an important number.
CFL Key Numbers: 3, 2, 4, 1, 7, 5, 10, 6, 8, 9, 18, 11, 13, 21
CFL Key Totals: 57, 51, 43, 47, 38, 44, 65, 50, 40, 56, 53, 41, 46, 52, 61, 45


Caution, these are system plays only, just the plays without even looking at injury status or any additional handicapping.

AFSML YTD record
0-0, Basic AFS plays
0-1, Top AFS plays
-------------------------------------------
11-9, Games within 6 point target ML threshold. 55%
3-0, 4 point leans
0-2, 6 point basic plays--- Montreal, BC, Ottawa pending
1-0, 9 point top plays
2-2, 11 point investment plays

 

[teamfball]

Will a statistically based system intended for the NFL work for the CFL..?

A very disappointing 0-3 on 6 point basic plays for the system over the weekend.

Been watching...Only 3 downs and more yards on the field......I would say 9 or higher in this league.

I’m not sure those differences will make or break this CFL experiment. Ace, could you explain in more detail why you think “9 or higher in this league”..? Frankly you may be on to something. I was confident the same AFS criteria used for NFL would be transferable to CFL as luck would have it this week sets up to be a turning point with 3 solid AFS qualifiers………….The testing continues week 9……

Projected AFS lines

MONTREAL	-11.6
BRITISH COLUMBIA
HAMILTON	-8.5
EDMONTON
CALGARY
SASKATCHEWAN	-5.8
OTTAWA
TORONTO	-9.9

3 AFS qualifiers this week. MON, HAM, TOR.
If laying -2.5 or less = Top AFS play
If laying -6.5 or less = Basic AFS play


AFSML YTD record
0-0, Basic AFS plays
0-1, Top AFS plays
-------------------------------------------
10-10, Games within 6 point target ML threshold. 56%
15-5 Games within 9 points as suggested by Ace, 75%
3-0, 4 point leans
0-5, 6 point basic plays
1-0, 9 point top plays
2-2, 11 point investment plays
3-2, 9 point plays as suggested by Ace

 

[ACE-ACE]

I don't know much about cfl ....but I feel the team with more time would be big...has to be a lot of passing in cfl. Back test over the last 5 years could help.

to come up with MYLINE DID A LOT OF BACK TESTING.

Teams can't be all passing or all running if you only have 2 try to get ten yards than kick. If I love cfl which I dont I would try things.

dont give up...but experience

 

[ACE-ACE]

Teamball..... I need a site where I can download the data that yahoo and NFL sites put out, except on a single-game (rather than cumulative season) basis. I am not familiar with sites that have weekly statistics only where I can readily download such as the Yahoo and NFL sites. Do you know of a site that does that?

 

[teamfball]

Teamball..... I need a site where I can download the data that yahoo and NFL sites put out, except on a single-game (rather than cumulative season) basis. I am not familiar with sites that have weekly statistics only where I can readily download such as the Yahoo and NFL sites. Do you know of a site that does that?

Check your email, the aol one. I lost my messaging privileges here.

 

[teamfball]

Will a statistically based system intended for the NFL work for the CFL..?

The testing continues week 9……Caution, these are system plays only, just the plays without even looking at injury status or any additional handicapping.

AFSML YTD record
0-0, Basic AFS plays
0-1, Top AFS plays----Montreal+3, Hamilton-2.5 pending
-------------------------------------------
12-12, Games within 6 point target ML threshold. 50%
17-7 Games within 9 points as suggested by Ace, 71%
3-0, 4 point leans ---Hamilton-2.5 pending
0-5, 6 point basic plays
1-0, 9 point top plays
2-2, 11 point investment plays----Montreal+3, **Saskatchewan+6** pending
3-2, 9+ point plays as suggested by Ace
**Saskatchewan, note QB circumstances**

 

[teamfball]

Will a statistically based system intended for the NFL work for the CFL..?

Finally, results worthy of the system 3-0 and two very solid covers plus a squeaker with Saskatchewan. I believe this is classic regression to the mean. The first few weeks have been underwhelming to say the least. Going 3-0 with the investment plays this week brings the system closer to the mean/average. But it will take a few more weeks like this to make this experiment successful in my eyes.

• In review, https://www.pickmonitor.com/user/teamfball2_5
  • AFS Top investment plays in two years of use and three additional years of NFL testing average 78%
  • AFML 11 pt investment plays in 5 years of NFL testing average 77%
  • AFS/AFSML consensus plays in 5 years of NFL testing average 90%

0-0, Basic AFS leans---Toronto pending
0-0, Standard AFS plays
2-1, Top investment AFS plays, 67% target =78%
-------------------------------------------
AFSML YTD record
12-12, Games within 6 point target ML threshold. 50%
17-7 Games within 9 points as suggested by Ace, 71%
3-0, 4 point leans
1-5, 6 point basic plays
1-0, 9 point top plays
4-2, 11 point investment plays, 67% target =77%
5-2, 9+ point plays as suggested by Ace
------------------------------------------
1-1, AFS/AFSML consensus plays, 50% target =90%

 

[teamfball]

Will a statistically based system intended for the NFL work for the CFL..?

After a solid performance last week nothing exciting about this weeks plays. No wager worthy top plays but three basic 6pt plays…….Montreal+9.5, Toronto+3.5, Saskatchewan+3. Frankly this category of plays has been pathetic at 1-5…

0-1, Basic AFS leans
0-0, Standard AFS plays
2-1, Top investment AFS plays, 67% target =78%
-------------------------------------------
AFSML YTD record
13-15, Games within 6 point target ML threshold. 46%
21-7 Games within 9 points as suggested by Ace, 75%
3-0, 4 point leans
1-5, 6 point basic plays…….Montreal+9.5, Toronto+3.5, Saskatchewan+3--pending
1-0, 9 point top plays
4-2, 11 point investment plays, 67% target =77%
5-2, 9+ point plays as suggested by Ace
------------------------------------------
1-1, AFS/AFSML consensus plays, 50% target =90%