everybody wants an

[dimeplayersonly]

i want to hear from the "sharp guys"

i hear all the time about all the books just copying lines from CRIS and OLY.....none of them post "original" numbers blah, blah, blah.....

my question to you guys always saying this...whats an original number?????

give me an example....

i mean if if CRIS opens up with the jets -7
should BOOK #6 put up 6'????? yeah thats original enough....yeah right...

in this business the margin of error is minimal, otherwise your finished...

the opening numbers are not posted on whims, or guessing, or ouji boards or dogs that count by barking........if CRIS post a 5 on a game..........guess what? thats PROBABLY what it should be............

 

[JudgeWapner]

Dime,I am using Celtics -12,original enough?

 

[WalkofLife]

Hate to disagree Judge. You're off by ½ a point.

 

[dimeplayersonly]

forgot to tell you thats why i was getting all spurs yesterday..........catching +10 too much to pass up..........lol

 

[TheGeneral+]

Not a sharp guy but i can offer an opinion.

When a book has linemakers, there seems to be a variance of method i think. One oddsmaker may decide to use a certain criteria over another, therefore the difference in lines i believe. As for the need to have an employeed oddsmaker, i do not see the need if you can clone the top linesmakers. Seems as it is a bad move for these books to try and provide unique lines as it only allows the heavy hitters to key in on scalps & middles. I see no problem with cloning lines at all. If this is what it takes for a book to avoid getting pounded & have financial troubles, then let em clone. Does not matter to the average gamblers.

 

[THE SHRINK]

General,

I respectfully disagree with you. The sharpies I know can KILL a book that simply clones their lines from other sports books on the Don Best feed...

The ART of bookmaking these days requires a good sports book to have a good linesmaker, not a clone...

I can go more into it, but then I would be giving away some of my arsenal, and I will not!

Suffice to say that a clone book is much more likely to get fooled by a "false move" than someone like a Skippy, Lenny, Mac or a Spiros..

 

[WalkofLife]

General:

Clone books have gotten killed by the same books they're cloning from. The best chance a book has to survive this speculation is having somebody who actually knows the value of a line.

Clone books are doomed. They're in the lowest step of the food chain in this industry.

Shrink:

You forgot to mention Fernando.

 

[TheGeneral+]

You are correct SHRINK, but i would referance my reply only if the books who clone would also wait until the line has settled for a bit before posting a number. If a shop clones as soon as the number is put up, then they will get pounded for sure. Hopefully a book would use some common sense as well, but we know many do not

Is that far off?

Thanks

 

[dimeplayersonly]

SHRINK........let me clarify......i am referring to "opening" numbers.......not adjusting numbers to coincide with the other books just because they change thiers...


moving numbers on air.........different topic...to be discussed at a later time.....lol

 

[THE SHRINK]

Walk of Life,

I didn't forget to mention Fernando because I didn't want to, lol...

General,

A clone book can survive ONLY if all they book is "square action" but in this environment, that's not likely to happen...

There is so much more to bookmaking than meets the eye....

And I don't claim to know half of it either...

THE SHRINK

 

[TheGeneral+]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> There is so much more to bookmaking than meets the eye.... <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

No doubt in my mind SHRINK. I am seeking to learn much of that & your forum is assisting me.

Thanks

 

[THE SHRINK]

Dimesplayer,

Since you brought up the topic of an "opening number"...

Question:

Do you know how most of the "elite" bookmakers I know of evaluate how good their opening number was?

Answer:

By how close it ends up being to the closing number...

 

[Buzzsaw]

Shrink,
I disagree with you that a book can or will likely get killed with cloned numbers implying that the safer book has their own original numbers.

A combination of cloned numbers with a goal of balanced action is the safest model. Not an "opinion" to attract heavy imbalances ala AcesGold.

 

[JudgeWapner]

It seems to me that Sports Market used a lot of original numbers.Anyone know how they are doing these days?

 

[THE SHRINK]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Buzzsaw:
Shrink,
I disagree with you that a book can or will likely get killed with cloned numbers implying that the safer book has their own original numbers.

A combination of cloned numbers with a goal of balanced action is the safest model. Not an "opinion" to attract heavy imbalances ala AcesGold.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Buzzsaw,

I never said that. Please don't twist my words around on this particular topic..

Your second paragraph sounds better in THEORY, but while I agree with your second sentence, I disagree with your first one...

"A combination of cloned numbers with a goal of balanced action is the safest model."

This is very naiive of you and idealistic to think this can ever happen in the long run. No book I know of has balanced action!

THE SHRINK

 

[JudgeWapner]

Nor do I want balanced action.I want lopsided square action.

 

[SENDITIN]

Judge did have the Celtics minus 12 tonight, but when I tried to put the Nets in, I was told I could only play the Celtics. Now that's original.

 

[JudgeWapner]

LOL.

 

[max1234]

All of this talk about "cloning" and such is wearing my ass out. The only ones concerned about are the scalpers, middlers and syndicate guys. The average bettor is interested in placing a wager or two for entertainment. That's it. Just what % of bettors actually make a living wagering? Anyone??? I would say less than 1%. So why should an entire industry be worried about pissing off such a small % of their business? They shouldn't.

 

[JudgeWapner]

Max,agreed.