ERockMoney 2016 EURO Outlook

[ERockMoney]

EURO 2016:

Group A:

France
Romania
Albania
Switzerland

Well, things couldn’t have shaped up much better for the hosts. France have the luxury of being in the weakest group, will be one of four division winners to face a third place team to open the knockout stages and one of two group winners to face a group runner-up in the quarters while the remainder of the group winners would square off with each other. If things go to plan, which is rarely the case, a semi’s showdown with the mighty Germans is on the horizon.

France are absolutely loaded and will look to right the ship after several disastrous major tournaments in a row. The French have been labeled chokes, soft; fragile with little to no chemistry and this era of French football has been considered one of the worst in their rich history. To suggest pressure is immense on this squad is a colossal understatement. That being said, the French will bring a start studded roster to the EURO, led by all-world Atletico man Antione Griezmann. The 25 year old Griezmann has established himself as one of the best players in the world and features a wide array of skills with incredible pace, touch, vision and is equally lethal setting up his teammates or finishing himself with surgical accuracy. The French also sport 23 year old phenom Paul Pogba, an intimidating presence who brings a fast paced physical style of play to midfield and is equally dangerous attacking or defending. The list of world class talent doesn’t end there with the likes of Anthony Martial, Dimitri Payet, Olivier Giroud, Blaise Matuidi, Yohan Cabaye, Bacary Sagna, Jeremy Mathieu, Laurent Koscielny and Hugo Lloris to name a few. Defensively, Les Bleus are a bit suspect with three expected starters on the wrong side of thirty and past their prime. In addition, I’m not as enthralled with Lloris as the masses, he’s a solid keeper, but not in the discussion for the best in the world as many media outlets would lead you to believe.


Talent has never been the issues with the French, so a loaded roster is not abnormal. Staying focused, playing as a cohesive unit and overcoming the immense expectations they always face has been their downfall coupled with poor leadership from the sidelines, questionable tactics, roster decisions and an overall lack of control. Personally, I like the French to hoist the trophy on home soil and expect the issues on the pitch to be non-existent this go around, although I’m not sure the issues on the sideline have been remedied. I’ve already had some issues with the selections for the roster, although I suppose you’re always going to have that when there is an abundance of talent, but it appears via several media outlets that France will start Giroud, which is a mistake and means either Payet or Martial will be coming off the bench. Could this be the beginning of a “here we go again” for the French?

Odds to win EURO: France +350, Swiss +6600, Romania +25000, Albania +50000
Odds to win Group A: France -275, Swiss +450, Romania +1100, Albania +2800
Odds to qualify: France -3300, Swiss -300, Romania -120, Albania +225
Odds not to qualify: Albania -250, Romania +120, Swiss +275, France +2000

Current Group A match odds:

6/10: France v Romania: -250/+333/+750 (Saint-Denis, Stade de France)
6/11: Albania v Switzerland: +450/+250/-149 (Lens Agglo, Stade Bollaert-Delelis)
6/15: France v Albania: -500/+475/+1100 (Marseille, Stade Velodrome)
6/15: Romania v Switzerland: +260/+229/-105 (Paris, Parc des Princes)
6/20: France v Switzerland: -125/+250/+350 (Lille Metropole, Stade Pierre Mauroy)
6/20: Romania v Albania: -105/+240/+260 (Lyon, Stade de Lyon)

 

[ERockMoney]

Switzerland:


I’m not seeing all the fuss with the Swiss, most outlets have handed this side second in the group and expect them to easily qualify for the knockout round. I don’t think the road is going to be quite that easy for the Swiss, in fact, I expect them to finish third and fail to qualify.


There is some talent on the Swiss side with the likes of former Bayern Munich and current Stoke City front man Xherdan Shaqiri, new Arsenal signing Granit Xhaka, Juventus defender Stephan Lichtsteiner and Gladbach keeper Jann Sommer to go along with a plethora of Bundelsiga representation.

There has been much talk about the youth movement on the Swiss side and their depth at all levels of the pitch, however, it hasn’t translated to results on the pitch. Switzerland comfortably qualified second in their group behind England, but was far from impressive. Their qualifying group was incredibly weak, likely the weakest of all the qualifying groups, they were woefully outplayed by Slovenia the majority of their two matches, losing one and needing a miraculous comeback in the other, were trounced easily in both matches against the English and inflated their stats against the likes of San Marino and Lithuania. Their recent friendlies were even less impressive losing at Slovakia and Ireland and getting handled at home by Bosnia. They did manage to upset Austria, but were very fortunate as they were soundly outplayed.

Their opener with the under rated Albania’s may be the key for this side. That match should be an incredibly intense and physical matchup with the strong ties between the two nations. I believe there are at least six-seven players per side who are Swiss and play for Albania and vice versa, due the massive immigration of Albanians to Switzerland during the Yugoslav and Kosovo Wars. In fact, this matchup will feature the first brother versus brother at the EURO when Granit Xhaka (Swiss) and Taulant Xhaka (Albania) meet on opposite sides of the pitch. Both were born in Basel to newly immigrated Albanian parents.

Typically, getting the elite side in your group last can be an advantage as they may be sitting on six points and have already clinched the group, but I’m not so sure that will benefit the Swiss in this spot. The French are a side that will be under immense pressure and coupled with their tendency to play tighter in big spots could be more dangerous in the third match, where they likely will have no pressure, play a more open attack and feature a younger and likely more effective lineup, which should spell for a French thrashing of Swiss, who have never beaten the French in a competitive match.

In in the minority, but I’m expecting no more than two-three points and a poor goal differential for the Swiss through group play, which would likely place them in third and cost them a berth in the knockout phase. It will be challenging for the third place team from Group A to qualify with the French likely to take all nine points and quite possibly be the only group winner to win all their matches. If the Swiss are sitting two-three points heading into the finale with France, if the Albania-Romania match produces a winner the Swiss have almost no chance at second, even if they draw the Swiss could miss out if they are handily beaten by France, as I expect.

 

[ERockMoney]

Romania:


A lot is being made from the Romanians only conceding two goals through their ten qualifying matches; however, they were in the second easiest group, only to the previously mentioned England-Swiss group, a group that featured some of the worst offensive sides in Europe with Northern Ireland, Hungary, Finland, Faroe Islands and Greece. Romania only scored eleven goals, four versus Faroe Islands, three versus Finland, two versus Northern Ireland, and one each versus Hungary and last place Greece.

The emergence of Steaua Bucaresti man Nicolae Stanciu should inject some life into the struggling Romania offense. Stanciu did not play during qualification, but has made an immediate impact in the three friendlies he participated in being named man of the match in a scoreless draw with Spain and scoring against Lithuania and Congo. He brings pace and energy to a somewhat lifeless attack and should be a legitimate offensive threat for the Romanian side. This isn’t going to be a Greek like defensive side, circa 2004, don’t be sucked in into the stats or media outlets already starting to make those comparisons, but they should have a bit more offensive bite than they showed in qualifying. The sides they faced in their incredibly weak group were well short on offensive class and featured a lock down defensive game plan, something they shouldn’t see much of in Group A.

Romania gets the French in the most optimal position, IMO, as the opener should be an incredible spectacle with the weight of the country on the French sides shoulders. My perception is this may be a bit much for the typically fragile French and although I fully expect them to claim the full points I’m not expecting a walk in the park. The host nation hasn’t even won the opening match since 1984, the last time the tournament was in France. The thought that the Romanians are well behind the Swiss is beyond me, as this side and the Albanians have been handed a great opportunity for second place, an opportunity they would not be afforded in nearly any other group. Even if Romania is sitting on zero or one point, a win in their finale versus Albania may put them through to second, especially if their goal differential is favorable, which could be the case if they do give the French a battle in the opener.

 

[ERockMoney]

Albania:


Albania is making their first appearance at a major tournament and as expected not many outlets are giving them much of a chance at success. I disagree with the notion that this side will struggle mightily in France, partially due to the weakness of the group featuring an overvalued Swiss side and a beatable Romanian side. In addition, I like what I see from this Albania team, they are well coached, disciplined, play together and rarely beat themselves. Their qualifying group was a bit more difficult than most pundits gave them credit for featuring Portugal, Denmark and Serbia.

The Albanians beat Portugal in Portugal, albeit without Ronaldo, picked up a pair of draws with Denmark and nearly drew the second match with Portugal save for a last second stoppage time winner from the Portuguese and did not concede a goal in away matches during qualifying. Much has been made of the 3-0 victory they gifted against Serbia due the drone incident, which was BS, but this side played very well throughout qualifying and is no fluke to be in France. The Albanians started to show some life with a competitive 2014 World Cup qualifying campaign where they played competitive matches with Switzerland, Slovenia, Iceland and Norway, ultimately finishing six points out of a playoff berth with a 3-2-5 record and -2 GD in a group they were expected to get steamrolled in.

Elseid Hysaj, the standout 22 year old defender from Napoli, leads a strong back line that includes captain and Albanian international mainstay Lorik Cana (Nantes). The defensive unit is the main strength of the side and plays sound football. Hysal has world class potential and has recently been linked to a move to Atletico Madrid. Albania is solid in the midfield as well, led by Sokol Cikalleshi (Istanbul Basaksehir) and Taulant Xhaka (Basel). Their weakness is in attack where they are void any real talent. Albania only scored seven goals in eight qualifying matches coming from seven different goal scorers. The one wildcard could be Milot Rashica the 18 year old Vitesse starlit. He didn’t feature for Albania during qualification and was just called up recently and subbed in a recent friendly. Rashica, despite his age, brings the only chance Albania has at a potential world class offensive threat. Rashica has already been linked to Chelsea, Tottenham, Everton and Southampton.

As I have discussed this group with some strong punters who’s opinions I value they were less optimistic then myself regarding Albania’s chances here, but I feel they have a reasonable shot at second place and qualification for the knockout round. At least a point in the opener with the Swiss is critical and it could be all on the line in the group finale with Romania. As mentioned earlier, Albania can be had to qualify at +225 and +600 to finish second in the group.

 

[ERockMoney]

Group B:


England
Russia
Wales
Slovakia

England can’t be too unhappy with their group, which isn’t quite as kind as Group A, but is far from treacherous. Russia are an aging, fading side who could be ripe for a disaster in France, Wales, while improving, aren’t overly difficult and don’t match the media hype they are receiving and Slovakia are a massively underrated side, but still shouldn’t really threaten the English for top honors in the group.

Much like the French, the English are always under incredible pressure and unrealistic expectations. This is side who has never won the European Championship, never even played in the finale and only made the semi’s once in their history, when they hosted in 1996. In fact, they have only made it out of their group on three occasions, yet the English media expects them to hoist the trophy every tournament.

This English side has an excess of talent, much like their predecessors, but certainly has their holes, especially on the sidelines where Hodgson somehow is still in charge despite an early exit in EURO 2012 and abysmal showing at the 2014 World Cup. Thus far, Hodgson appears to be making the right moves, but let’s see where he ends up with the starting eleven and formation. Reports are Vardy will come off the bench, which is the right move. Vardy has incredible pace, but can’t play on the wing and struggles with his crosses and runs from the outside. Playing him up front is the only option and he lacks the overall skillset and class of Kane. He pulled the same nonsense against Turkey that got him sent off versus West Ham, having a free run at goal and slowing up to play for the penalty and flop at the first sign of minor contact. This type of conservative approach isn’t typical for a world class striker, if you have the advantage you go for goal, not play for a penalty. The thought that many fans/media outlets were suggesting Vardy should start ahead of Kane or Rooney is mind boggling.

There certainly are plenty of tough decisions for Hodgson, the midfield pairings could be critical, with the likes of Alli, Milner, Sterling, Lallana, Henderson, Dier, Wilshere and Barkley. The bookmakers favor Dier, Alli, Henderson and Lallana, but I’m just not sold on Henderson and Lallana in the starting eleven. I think in Milner, Sterling, Barkley and Wilshere you have more talent and opportunity, yet there are certainly concerns, Wilshere missed most of the season, per usual, Sterling had a horrid season at City yet may be the most talented playmaker of the bunch, Barkley can be electric, but also has glaring defensive lapses. Milner is the most in-form and likely consistent, but lacks any potential for greatness.

Defensively, the English are the weakest. Smalling is a must start, but the remainder of options all leave major areas of concern. I’m surprised there is such a debate between Walker and Clyne, as the latter seems the clear choice IMO. Walker brings a bit more offensive push, but is the more lax defender, which England cannot afford. Stones and Cahill have both struggled of late, Stones has the potential and athleticism, Cahill has the experience and more physical play, yet both have looked suspect in their defensive duties of late. Rose or Bertrand is a tossup, but I’d lean Rose who provides more quality IMO.

Decisions, decisions….The formation utilized by Hodgson has also been a topic of much debate. Will Rooney play in a true striker role, more of a roaming/attacking midfielder, even start, what to do with your five strikers, diamond formation, back line, etc. I don’t have an issue leaving Drinkwater off, as he appeared lost in his limited action with the national side, but five strikers seems a bit odd for a side whose weakness will be on defense. I can’t see tying to many subs into the offensive roles; yet if they don’t your likely going to have one or two striker barely see the pitch.


All the potential issues discussed shouldn’t become relevant during the group stage, where England should comfortably win the group, but could be exponentially magnified during the knockout stages and could be England’s ultimate downfall once they go deeper a face stronger opposition. Hopefully for their sake, they can avoid penalties where they have been abysmal being eliminated on PK's at the World Cup in 1990, 1998 and 2006 and the EURO 1996, 2004 and 2012 without winning penalty shootout during that span, to the best of my knowledge.

Odds to win EURO: England +900, Russia +6600, Wales +8000, Slovakia +15000
Odds to win Group B: England -120, Russia +333, Wales +500, Slovakia +900
Odds to qualify: England -900, Russia -225, Wales -150, Slovakia +125
Odds not to qualify: Slovakia -110, Wales +150, Russia +188, England +700

Current Group B match odds:

6/11: England v Russia: +105/+220/+280 (Marseille, Stade Velodrome)
6/11: Wales v Slovakia: +150/+200/+200 (Bordeaux, Stade de Bordeaux)
6/15: Russia v Slovakia: -117/+240/+290 (Lille Metropole, Stade Pierre Mauroy)
6/16: England v Wales: -133/+250/+320 (Lens Agglo, Stade Bollaert-Delelis)
6/20: Russia v Wales: +114/+229/+210 (Toulouse, Stadium de Toulouse)
6/20: Slovakia v England: +450/+290/-188 (Saint-Etienne, Stade Geoffroy Guichard)

 

[ERockMoney]

Russia:


The Russians have been on a steady slide since their surprise semi-finalist run at EURO 2008. They were stunned by Slovenia during the World Cup 2010 UEFA play-off and failed to qualify for the tournament, crashed out of EURO 2012 during the group stage in the easiest group when they only needed a point in their group match finale against Greece and equaled that feat with another disaster in World Cup 2014 where they finished third, without a victory, in a group that featured South Korea and Algeria. I’m not optimistic EURO 2016 will be much better for the Russians.

I’m quite surprised Russia is so strongly considered the second best side in this group, where I would place them possibly third or even fourth. Russia struggled in qualifying in a mediocre group, finishing in second a full eight points behind Austria whom they lost too twice, a pair of points ahead of a sinking Swedish side and looked very lackluster in matches versus Montenegro and Moldova and netted 11 of their 18 goals versus Liechtenstein. In addition, they were gifted a 3-0 win at Montenegro due to a crowd incident in a match that was scoreless late.


The side is made up of twenty-two of twenty-three players who play in the Russian League, including seven from CSKA Moscow and six from Zenit St. Petersburg. The midfield and defense feature an experienced, cohesive group, but are all aging and lack pace or speed. They will struggle mightily with younger more explosive sides at the tournament. They are anchored in net by mainstay Akinffev who was spectacular in qualifying and for CSKA Moscow this season. The loss of Dzagoev will be huge, as he was the most explosive option for the Russians in the MF and brought strong pace and touch to the position.

Zenit’s trio of Aleksandr Kokorin, Oleg Shatov and Artem Dzyuba will need to have an excellent tournament to bring the Russian side some threat offensively. Kokorin can attack the wing and brings one of the few options with youth, speed and talent while Shatov is a prospect with potential, but lacks international experience. Dzyuba, isn’t a lock to start up front, but did find the back of the net eight times in qualifying, albeit five versus Liechtenstein, two versus Moldova and one versus Sweden. He was far less impressive than Kokorin against sides with a pulse. CSKA youngster, Aleksandr Golovin, who can play either wing or up front, could be the wild card if given the opportunity to play and is the only true big-time youth prospect on the side. If not, he will be a name to remember ahead of the 2018 World Cup in Russia.


I’m not expecting this to be a side similar to the 2014 World Cup version, where they were woefully undermanned offensively and needed long balls and set pieces to generate any real scoring chances, but this side is also a few years older and slower. I’m actually thinking they may produce some more exciting matches and look for the match with England to be quite high scoring. I project Russia and Wales to be on 0-1 points heading into their finale, so if that match produces a winner they should certainly qualify as a third place side, but a draw could mean both are left behind. Outside of England, Group B could feature the tightest battle between second and fourth.

 

[ERockMoney]

Wales:

The Welsh have been very good to me the last few years, as I started backing this side who was routinely underpriced starting with 2014 WC qualifiers. I continued to ride them much of the EURO 2016 qualifying, but am growing more hesitant by the day, as their value has all but dissipated. After a 58 year absence, the Welsh are back on the big stage and making their first appearance at the European Championships. Wales qualified finishing the second in their group, where they were expected to be. They finished with a 6-3-1 record and only conceded four goals in the process.

They were outstanding against group winners and favorites, Belgium, winning 1-0 in Cardiff and earning a scoreless draw in Brussels. The rest of the qualifying campaign was far from a walk in the park. Wales only picked up one point from third place finishers, Bosnia, routed Israel on the road, but were held to a scoreless at home. They did sweep bottom table sides Cyprus, who is improving, and lifeless Andorra, but looked far from dominant in doing so, 3-1 and 4-1 on aggregate, respectively. Wales only scored eleven goals in ten matches and showed long stretches of inability to break down the opposition’s defense, even lesser sides in their group.

Unsurprisingly, Bale was the key to Wales qualifying campaign and will remain so throughout the EURO. He scored seven of Wales’s eleven goals in qualifying and bailed out the side on several occasions. Make no mistake about it, Bale is one of the world’s most dominant players and can create havoc against any defense in the world. His blend of pace, power, accuracy, creativity, aerial prowess and sensation set piece accuracy is a combination rarely seen, However, the Welsh national side is far too dependent on him and runs nearly every offensive effort through him, regardless of the situation, with little or no attempt at anything else. The group certainly seems to have energy about them and team chemistry, which Coleman has helped bring to the next level, but they must show some creativity and unpredictability to advance deep in this tournament. There is an abundance of talent for the Welsh and this clearly not just a feel good story of a side without a chance. Crystal Palace keeper Wayne Hennessey has long been the top netminder for Wales, a defense that features an abundance of EPL talent in Willaims (Swansea), Davies (Spurs), Gunter (Reading), Collins (West Ham), Taylor (Swansea) to go along with a stout MF, including world class talent in Ramsey (Arsenal), Ledley (Palace), Allen (Liverpool) and attacking options in all world Bale (Real), Robson-Kanu (Reading) and Vokes (Burnley).

Wales basically plays five deep defensively, led by captain and Swansea standout Ashley Williams, and rarely pushes forward along the back under any circumstance. I’ll be curious to see how their tactics change, if at all, when they are down, which easily could happen on several occasions with the level of talent on display in France. The Welsh only trailed a total of 35 minutes during qualifying and were rarely, if ever, forced to open up their conservative, defensive formation. However, due to their defensive alignment, they greatly struggled to create scoring opportunities. I’m struggling to see this simplistic approach succeed against Europe’s best. Lock it down in the back with five players completely devoted to defending, send Robson-Kanu on deep runs in attempt to open up the defense, yet rarely, if ever feed him the ball, as he is almost a full-time decoy and let Ramsey or anyone else try and find Bale, rinse and repeat for ninety minutes.

The thought of Bale against the English backline has to get any Welsh supporter excited, yet the English have an abundance of talent and class across the pitch and are likely to skilled and savvy to fall into Wales’s pedestrian trap. Russia, old and slow must bring similar excitement, but is an experienced, crafty technical side may also create issues. The blueprint used to best the overrated, poorly coached and disorganized Belgians may fall short in Group B. I don’t like the way this group fell for Wales, especially drawing England and drawing them in the second fixture. The entire buzz is around that match, even from Welsh players, who may find themselves in need of win versus the English if the look past the massively underrated Slovaks in the opener. Wales could get caught looking past Slovakia and looking back to England against the Russians, especially if England beat the Welsh and possibly beats them soundly. I figure a reasonable probability Wales are on 0-1 points heading into the finale with Russia, where a win would likely secure third and qualification for either side while a draw may secure third for one side, but likely not qualification if they both sit at 0-1 points heading into the match.

 

[MAJORK]

nice write ups! GL to you this summer!

 

[ERockMoney]

nice write ups! GL to you this summer!

MAJORK,

Thank you for stopping by. Best of luck with your action.

 

[ERockMoney]

Copa America:

0.5 USA/Colombia Draw +220
0.2 Correct score 1-1 +550
0.1 HT/FT USA/Draw +1500

Best of luck with your action.

 

[Jles]

Good luck ERM. Hoping the US can keep up with the counter attacking offense .

 

[ERockMoney]

Good luck ERM. Hoping the US can keep up with the counter attacking offense .

Jles,

Thank you for stopping by. I'm really looking forward to the next month of soccer, should be two excellent tournaments.

Best of luck with your action.

 

[ERockMoney]

Copa America:

-0.80

1.0 Peru -163
0.5 Peru win to nil +138
0.3 HT/FT Peru/Peru +160
0.2 Peru 2-0 +550

Best of luck with your action.

 

[ERockMoney]

Copa America:

+0.390

0.8 Jamaica +450
0.5 Both teams to score +138
0.3 Jamaica -0.5, -1 +525
0.3 Anytime goal scorer Donaldson +400
0.3 Anytime goal scorer Barnes +500
0.1 Jamaica 2-1 +1800

The Jamaicans are massively under valued in this match. Both sides should open things up as a draw is as good as a loss with two powers, Mexico and Uruguay, in the group.

Best of luck with your action.

 

[ERockMoney]

Copa America:

-1.910

Horrendous officiating against Jamaica, tough break.

0.5 Mexico +150
0.3 Anytime goal scorer Hernandez +250

Best of luck with your action.

 

[ERockMoney]

Copa America:

-1.460

1.0 Argentina +130
0.3 Argentina -1, -1.5 +300
0.3 Anytime goal scorer Higuain +250

Best of luck with your action.

 

[ERockMoney]

Copa America:

-0.610

US-Costa Rica

0.5 Both teams to score +125
0.3 Costa Rica +400
0.3 Borges anytime goal scorer +500
0.2 HT/FT Draw/Costa Rica +900
0.1 Costa Rica 2-1 +1800

Costa Rica undervalued here versus a wildly overrated US side. How Bradley continues to start is beyond me, since his disasterous World Cup he has been flat out terrible and is a turn over machine. CR isn't anything special, so US could get the three points, but at this price with the squad flat and lacking and cohesiveness I'll bite.

Best of luck with your action.

 

[ERockMoney]

EURO:

Futures:

1.0 France to win EURO 2016 +333
0.5 France/Spain final +1200
0.3 Slovakia to finish second in Group B +375
0.3 Austria to win Group F +220
0.3 England stage of elimination: Quarter-Finals +275
0.2 Top scorer Morata +2000
0.2 Albania to finish second in Group A +600
0.2 Group D straight forecast Spain/Czech Republic +600
0.2 Austria stage of elimination: Semi-Finals +900
0.1 Semi-Finalists: France, Germany, Spain, Austria +15000
0.1 Straight forecast Final France/Spain +2800
0.1 Winner/Top goal scorer double France/Morata +12500
0.1 England to be eliminated in QF via penalty shootout +1800

Continued success.

 

[ERockMoney]

EURO:

France-Romania

0.5 Both teams to score +170
0.3 Anytime goal scorer Greizmann +150
0.1 First goal scorer Greizmann +400
0.1 France 2-1 +950
0.1 Anytime goal scorer Stanciu +900

Always seems to be a tough spot for the host in the opener, so much pressure, especially as the favorite for the tournament. The French haven't responded well under pressure recently, but this is a new wave of French talent, especially offensively. I still expect them to struggle a bit under the weight of a country and the spectacle of the opener. Romania are disciplined and tactically sound, but are t the defensive juggernaut many suggest. Their qualifying group was offensively deficient and preferred to play lock down defensive matches. Thus their numbers are distorted in either direction, with the offense being a bit better than expected and the defense being a bit worse. With France issues on the back line I'll bite on the BTTS price.

Continued success.

 

[LexingtonBrass]

Good luck with all your EURO plays! Love seeing your insight.