I see a lot of players posting that their less than stellar records have been improved by their 2nd half plays and that is where the money has been made. Of course, those who lose on their 2nd half plays wouldn't neccessarily draw attention to that.
More importantly, if you are winning your second half plays, why are you not sharing with me? Post em if you got em Georgie.
Your fan,
IAG
More importantly, if you are winning your second half plays, why are you not sharing with me? Post em if you got em Georgie.
Your fan,
IAG
Some of my strongest opinions are on 2nd half lines. It is still tough to bet when you're getting a horrible number in terms of the game line. Bama vs. Tenn was a mortal 2nd half lock at PK, and I was too much of a pussy to bet it, because I didn't want to lay 10 when I could have laid 5. Miami of Ohio the other night vs. UCLA should have been a huge 2nd half play for me, but I didn't like the +12 when I found out the original line was 17.
You have to throw game lines out and cap the 2nd half and bet accordingly. Hard to pull the trigger sometimes, but you have to remember it is a bet that is independent of the game line. Sometimes, if you have a strong opinion, you have to even bet polish middles, ignoring your game bet if you know at the half you are on the wrong side. Some great 2nd half opportunities are out there.
You have to throw game lines out and cap the 2nd half and bet accordingly. Hard to pull the trigger sometimes, but you have to remember it is a bet that is independent of the game line. Sometimes, if you have a strong opinion, you have to even bet polish middles, ignoring your game bet if you know at the half you are on the wrong side. Some great 2nd half opportunities are out there.
I know guys that actually book will scoff at this, but yes, 2H's are way easier to take advantage of bad lines. Not bad lines b/c the books don't know wtf is going on...but bad lines b/c they must set a number at least in the ballpark of the game line MOST times. This applies to hoops more than foots BTW.
I've got a great article saved from a guy who used to work at All World back in the day....let me dig it up. (Sorry if the mere mention of AWS sent shivers down anyone's spine)
I've got a great article saved from a guy who used to work at All World back in the day....let me dig it up. (Sorry if the mere mention of AWS sent shivers down anyone's spine)
With all due respect for my old friend 'Bobby' from EE....Here's the best advice I've ever rec'd in forum land....7 odd years ago.
Part deux to follow:
<table class="tborder" id="post120716" width="100%" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="6" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><td class="thead">
January 13th, 2002, 10:05 PM <!-- / status icon and date -->
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="alt2" style="padding: 0px;"> <!-- user info --> <table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="6"> <tbody><tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> BobbyAWS
<script type="text/javascript"> vbmenu_register("postmenu_120716", true); </script>
Registered User
</td> <td width="100%"> </td> <td valign="top" nowrap="nowrap"> Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Curacao
Posts: 903
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- / user info --> </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="alt1" id="td_post_120716"> <!-- message, attachments, sig --> <!-- icon and title -->
Bobby's Halftime Cookbook, chapters 1-4
<hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225); background-color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> I've been doing OK with halftime bets, and someone asked me how I arrived at my selections. Here's how:
First, I make my number. Then I see what number the books put out. If we're off by more than a point or so, I've got a play.
Before we go into how I make MY numbers, we must first look at how the books arrive at THEIR numbers. Their way is much simpler, and can be summed up in one sentence:
They look at their Don Best screen, and copy the numbers from CRIS and Olympic.
That's how much thought they put into their opening number. ZERO. Mindless copying. They don't know how to discern a bad number from the good ones, so they don't even try. So if CRIS or Olympic makes a bad number, the industry just follows along mindlessly, and can be exploited.
But a mistake by either of these influential books also affects the *other's* line. If Olympic says Pick, and CRIS says -2, then ONE of them has a bad number. And each book, aware of the other's number, will start to lean into each other, in an effort to thwart players who are looking for middles. In our example, Olympic might go to -½ or -1, without taking a bet (why give a middler "pick" when he'll happily take -½?); and CRIS would come down to -1½ or -1.
If they don't eventually arrive at the same number before taking a bet, they will be further pressured by the smart shoppers. The favorite bettors will avoid CRIS' higher number, and bet at Olympic. The dog bettors will pass on Oly's lower number, and bet CRIS'. Neither book will get the balanced action they strive for, and will adjust their numbers. Of course, these adjustments bring the numbers still closer together.
The point is, ONE of these books had a better opening number than the other, but moved AWAY from the right side, and TOWARDS the wrong side.
I've strayed from the topic already? Sorry.
OK then, how do CRIS and Olympic arrive at their (the industry's) opening numbers?
They consider the current score, and the game's pointspread. This puts the Halftime in one of the following catagories:
--Favorite is winning, but not covering
--Favorite is winning, and the current lead is about the same size as the game's spread
--Favorite is winning by more than the spread
--Favorite is winning by MUCH more than the spread (about double)
--Favorite is winning by MUCH more than double the spread
--Game is tied
--Dog is winning by less than the spread
--Dog is winning by about the spread
--Dog is winning by more than the spread
--Dog is winning by MUCH more than the spread
Thought this was going to be easy, huh? I warned you that this would be an "epic".
(Just remember, this "cookbook" comes with no guarantees. It's what I've been using, and it's been working for a VERY short time. It's very possible that I've just been getting lucky.)
Let's take them one by one, starting with the easiest.
THE GAME IS TIED. In general, the favorite should be favored in the second half, and the line should be about 2/3 of the game's spread. EXAMPLE: Duke is favored by -7½ over North Carolina. If the game is tied, the halftime line should be Duke -5.
If the spread is very small (-1, -1½, -2), it's OK to make the HT line the same as the game line.
If the spread is very large (say, -20 or higher), then the HT line should be LESS than two-thirds. Obviously, the big favorite didn't bring their A-game if they haven't pulled away from the 20-point dog yet. In these cases, the number should be a little more than HALF the game's spread.
Got it? Don't read any further if you don't. Go back and read the last 3 paragraphs again. It only gets more complicated from here. If you decide to go no further, then "Thanks for playing." For the rest of you, the next easiest catagorie is:
FAVORITE IS WINNING BY ABOUT HALF THE SPREAD (within a point). This one's easy. If Duke's favored by -7½, and they've got a 4-point lead at the half, what should the second-half line be?
If you said, "Duke -3½", you win! And if the book offers "Duke -2", you've got a play!
Simply put, the second half line SHOULD be half of the game's spread, unless the score dictates an adjustment. When the first half bets "land on the number", there is absolutely no reason to come back in the HT with a different number.
If the first half number misses, then you need to adjust. If it missed by a little, you only adjust a little.
Let's take a 12-point favorite:
If fav is winning by 6, HT # should be 6 (duh).
If fav is winning by 7, HT # should be 5½ (not 5!).
If fav is winning by 5, HT # should be 6½ (not 7!).
If the current lead is any other number, then we will not address it here in the "about half the spread" catagorie.
There's one more "easy" catagorie:
FAVORITE IS WINNING BY EXACTLY THE GAME SPREAD. If it's a small spread (-1 or -2), make the second half pick'em. For most spreads, use a number that is 1/3 of the game's spread. In our "Duke -7½" example, if Duke is winning by 7 or 8 at halftime, the HT line should be Duke -2½.
Why shouldn't the HT *always* be pick'em if the game's on the number now? Because if they want Duke, they're going to have to lay something. Laying half the game's spread is a little heavy; one-third is about right.
**********
If anybody is still reading this, and actually paying attention to the numbers, just post here, and I'll type up the rest of this. But if I've already lost everybody, there's no sense in typing any further.
Bobby
<!-- / message --> <!-- edit note --> <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225); background-color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> Last edited by BobbyAWS; January 13th, 2002 at 10:19 PM.
<!-- / edit note -->
Part deux to follow:
<table class="tborder" id="post120716" width="100%" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="6" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><td class="thead">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="alt2" style="padding: 0px;"> <!-- user info --> <table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="6"> <tbody><tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> BobbyAWS
Registered User
</td> <td width="100%"> </td> <td valign="top" nowrap="nowrap"> Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Curacao
Posts: 903
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- / user info --> </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="alt1" id="td_post_120716"> <!-- message, attachments, sig --> <!-- icon and title -->
<hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225); background-color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> I've been doing OK with halftime bets, and someone asked me how I arrived at my selections. Here's how:
First, I make my number. Then I see what number the books put out. If we're off by more than a point or so, I've got a play.
Before we go into how I make MY numbers, we must first look at how the books arrive at THEIR numbers. Their way is much simpler, and can be summed up in one sentence:
They look at their Don Best screen, and copy the numbers from CRIS and Olympic.
That's how much thought they put into their opening number. ZERO. Mindless copying. They don't know how to discern a bad number from the good ones, so they don't even try. So if CRIS or Olympic makes a bad number, the industry just follows along mindlessly, and can be exploited.
But a mistake by either of these influential books also affects the *other's* line. If Olympic says Pick, and CRIS says -2, then ONE of them has a bad number. And each book, aware of the other's number, will start to lean into each other, in an effort to thwart players who are looking for middles. In our example, Olympic might go to -½ or -1, without taking a bet (why give a middler "pick" when he'll happily take -½?); and CRIS would come down to -1½ or -1.
If they don't eventually arrive at the same number before taking a bet, they will be further pressured by the smart shoppers. The favorite bettors will avoid CRIS' higher number, and bet at Olympic. The dog bettors will pass on Oly's lower number, and bet CRIS'. Neither book will get the balanced action they strive for, and will adjust their numbers. Of course, these adjustments bring the numbers still closer together.
The point is, ONE of these books had a better opening number than the other, but moved AWAY from the right side, and TOWARDS the wrong side.
I've strayed from the topic already? Sorry.
OK then, how do CRIS and Olympic arrive at their (the industry's) opening numbers?
They consider the current score, and the game's pointspread. This puts the Halftime in one of the following catagories:
--Favorite is winning, but not covering
--Favorite is winning, and the current lead is about the same size as the game's spread
--Favorite is winning by more than the spread
--Favorite is winning by MUCH more than the spread (about double)
--Favorite is winning by MUCH more than double the spread
--Game is tied
--Dog is winning by less than the spread
--Dog is winning by about the spread
--Dog is winning by more than the spread
--Dog is winning by MUCH more than the spread
Thought this was going to be easy, huh? I warned you that this would be an "epic".
(Just remember, this "cookbook" comes with no guarantees. It's what I've been using, and it's been working for a VERY short time. It's very possible that I've just been getting lucky.)
Let's take them one by one, starting with the easiest.
THE GAME IS TIED. In general, the favorite should be favored in the second half, and the line should be about 2/3 of the game's spread. EXAMPLE: Duke is favored by -7½ over North Carolina. If the game is tied, the halftime line should be Duke -5.
If the spread is very small (-1, -1½, -2), it's OK to make the HT line the same as the game line.
If the spread is very large (say, -20 or higher), then the HT line should be LESS than two-thirds. Obviously, the big favorite didn't bring their A-game if they haven't pulled away from the 20-point dog yet. In these cases, the number should be a little more than HALF the game's spread.
Got it? Don't read any further if you don't. Go back and read the last 3 paragraphs again. It only gets more complicated from here. If you decide to go no further, then "Thanks for playing." For the rest of you, the next easiest catagorie is:
FAVORITE IS WINNING BY ABOUT HALF THE SPREAD (within a point). This one's easy. If Duke's favored by -7½, and they've got a 4-point lead at the half, what should the second-half line be?
If you said, "Duke -3½", you win! And if the book offers "Duke -2", you've got a play!
Simply put, the second half line SHOULD be half of the game's spread, unless the score dictates an adjustment. When the first half bets "land on the number", there is absolutely no reason to come back in the HT with a different number.
If the first half number misses, then you need to adjust. If it missed by a little, you only adjust a little.
Let's take a 12-point favorite:
If fav is winning by 6, HT # should be 6 (duh).
If fav is winning by 7, HT # should be 5½ (not 5!).
If fav is winning by 5, HT # should be 6½ (not 7!).
If the current lead is any other number, then we will not address it here in the "about half the spread" catagorie.
There's one more "easy" catagorie:
FAVORITE IS WINNING BY EXACTLY THE GAME SPREAD. If it's a small spread (-1 or -2), make the second half pick'em. For most spreads, use a number that is 1/3 of the game's spread. In our "Duke -7½" example, if Duke is winning by 7 or 8 at halftime, the HT line should be Duke -2½.
Why shouldn't the HT *always* be pick'em if the game's on the number now? Because if they want Duke, they're going to have to lay something. Laying half the game's spread is a little heavy; one-third is about right.
**********
If anybody is still reading this, and actually paying attention to the numbers, just post here, and I'll type up the rest of this. But if I've already lost everybody, there's no sense in typing any further.
Bobby
<!-- / message --> <!-- edit note --> <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225); background-color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> Last edited by BobbyAWS; January 13th, 2002 at 10:19 PM.
<!-- / edit note -->
<!-- controls -->
</td></tr></tbody></table>
We were discussing how I make my halftime lines in basketball.
When making the number, we first must determine the games current situation, which would be one of the following ten scenarios:
1. Favorite is winning, but not covering
2. Favorite is winning, and the current lead is about the same size as the game's spread
3. Favorite is winning by more than the spread
4. Favorite is winning by MUCH more than the spread (about double)
5. Favorite is winning by MUCH more than double the spread
6. Game is tied
7. Dog is winning by less than the spread
8. Dog is winning by about the spread
9. Dog is winning by more than the spread
10. Dog is winning by MUCH more than the spread
The easiest ones are 2 and 6. These have been discussed in the afore-mentioned post.
We also started on 1. We said that if the lead is exactly half the spread, use the same number in the HT as you used in the first half. If the lead is a point off of that, adjust by ½-point in the HT. In fact, if it's MORE than one point off that, you can adjust ½-point each. Using a 10-point favorite for example:
If leading by 5, HT is -5.
If leading by 4, HT is -5½ (not 6).
If leading by 3, HT is -6.
If leading by 2, HT is -6½ (though I may go to 7; we're getting into the "game is tied" neighborhood).
If leading by 6, HT is -4½ (not 4).
If leading by 7, HT is -4.
If leading by 8, HT is -3½ (though I may go to 3 here; we're approaching "fav winning by exactly the spread of the game").
FAVORITE IS WINNING BY DOUBLE THE SPREAD. Usually, make it pick'em. This game's over, the dog *knows* it's over, and the fav's scrubs will see a lot of second half action.
If the spread was large, you can make the fav -1 or -2. Duke comes to mind again.
If the spread was small, you might make the dog -1 or -2. This was supposed to be a close game, so they may mount a little comeback. And they're not out of it (if the spread was small, then they can't be down by more than 8 or 10 points).
FAVORITE IS WINNING BY MORE THAN DOUBLE THE SPREAD. Make the dog a slight favorite. Big dogs shouldn't be made to lay more than 1 or 2 points. Smaller dogs can lay more. It's never a good idea to make the dog lay more points than the they were GETTING in the game. If they were a 4-point dog at the start of the game, they shouldn't lay more than -4 at halftime (I don't know WHY; it just IS).
FAVORITE IS WINNING BY MORE THAN THE SPREAD (but not double). Fav should be favored in the 2nd half, but barely. Maybe a point or two.
DOG IS WINNING BY ABOUT THE SPREAD. Figure it's a 50/50 proposition that the favorite can *win* this game straight up. Make the line fav minus (lead plus one).
EXAMPLE: Jazz favored over Grizzles by 9, trail by 9 at the half. Make the HT Jazz -10.
Note that this is one of the few scenarios where the favorite should lay MORE in the HT than they were in the game. And not MUCH more. When you see a team laying MUCH MORE in the Halftime than they were in the game, it's a good idea to take the dog (likewise, if you see a dog laying a ton of points at HT, go against them, too).
DOG IS WINNING BY MORE THAN THE SPREAD. Here's your biggest moneymaker. Often, the books will use the old "lead plus one" rule *here*, too. I prefer to use the game's spread again; MAYBE shade it up apoint or so, but not always.
EXAMPLE: Jazz, favored over Grizzles by 9, trail by 13 at the half. HT should be Jazz -9 or -10. If your book goes crazy and puts up a -12 or -13, you've found a play.
DOG IS WINNING BY *MUCH* MORE THAN THE SPREAD. This one's a toughie, because you almost never see it. If the fav's getting blown out, you've still got to favor them in the second half (expect a scathing halftime speech by the coach), but I don't think the HT number should be as high as the game's spread. Maybe half of the game's spread. If the game's spread isn't too high (which means the fav still has a chance to pull out a straight-up win), I might go 2/3 the spread.
EXAMPLES: Jazz, favored by 9, trail Grizzles by 18. I think I'd make the Jazz -5 here. Maybe -5½.
Maryland, favored over UNC by 7½, trails by 14. I'd make Maryland about -5 here.
DOG WINNING BY LESS THAN THE SPREAD. Fav should be about 2/3 the game's line.
That does it. I'll post a quiz after a while, after you guys have had time to digest this.
One last thing: sometimes, a situation will fall somewhere in between two or more of the above scenarios. If a 1-point favorite is winning by 2, is that "right on the number", "more than the number", or "double the number"? Use some judgement.
Hope this helps.
Bobby
<!-- / message --> <!-- controls -->
When making the number, we first must determine the games current situation, which would be one of the following ten scenarios:
1. Favorite is winning, but not covering
2. Favorite is winning, and the current lead is about the same size as the game's spread
3. Favorite is winning by more than the spread
4. Favorite is winning by MUCH more than the spread (about double)
5. Favorite is winning by MUCH more than double the spread
6. Game is tied
7. Dog is winning by less than the spread
8. Dog is winning by about the spread
9. Dog is winning by more than the spread
10. Dog is winning by MUCH more than the spread
The easiest ones are 2 and 6. These have been discussed in the afore-mentioned post.
We also started on 1. We said that if the lead is exactly half the spread, use the same number in the HT as you used in the first half. If the lead is a point off of that, adjust by ½-point in the HT. In fact, if it's MORE than one point off that, you can adjust ½-point each. Using a 10-point favorite for example:
If leading by 5, HT is -5.
If leading by 4, HT is -5½ (not 6).
If leading by 3, HT is -6.
If leading by 2, HT is -6½ (though I may go to 7; we're getting into the "game is tied" neighborhood).
If leading by 6, HT is -4½ (not 4).
If leading by 7, HT is -4.
If leading by 8, HT is -3½ (though I may go to 3 here; we're approaching "fav winning by exactly the spread of the game").
FAVORITE IS WINNING BY DOUBLE THE SPREAD. Usually, make it pick'em. This game's over, the dog *knows* it's over, and the fav's scrubs will see a lot of second half action.
If the spread was large, you can make the fav -1 or -2. Duke comes to mind again.
If the spread was small, you might make the dog -1 or -2. This was supposed to be a close game, so they may mount a little comeback. And they're not out of it (if the spread was small, then they can't be down by more than 8 or 10 points).
FAVORITE IS WINNING BY MORE THAN DOUBLE THE SPREAD. Make the dog a slight favorite. Big dogs shouldn't be made to lay more than 1 or 2 points. Smaller dogs can lay more. It's never a good idea to make the dog lay more points than the they were GETTING in the game. If they were a 4-point dog at the start of the game, they shouldn't lay more than -4 at halftime (I don't know WHY; it just IS).
FAVORITE IS WINNING BY MORE THAN THE SPREAD (but not double). Fav should be favored in the 2nd half, but barely. Maybe a point or two.
DOG IS WINNING BY ABOUT THE SPREAD. Figure it's a 50/50 proposition that the favorite can *win* this game straight up. Make the line fav minus (lead plus one).
EXAMPLE: Jazz favored over Grizzles by 9, trail by 9 at the half. Make the HT Jazz -10.
Note that this is one of the few scenarios where the favorite should lay MORE in the HT than they were in the game. And not MUCH more. When you see a team laying MUCH MORE in the Halftime than they were in the game, it's a good idea to take the dog (likewise, if you see a dog laying a ton of points at HT, go against them, too).
DOG IS WINNING BY MORE THAN THE SPREAD. Here's your biggest moneymaker. Often, the books will use the old "lead plus one" rule *here*, too. I prefer to use the game's spread again; MAYBE shade it up apoint or so, but not always.
EXAMPLE: Jazz, favored over Grizzles by 9, trail by 13 at the half. HT should be Jazz -9 or -10. If your book goes crazy and puts up a -12 or -13, you've found a play.
DOG IS WINNING BY *MUCH* MORE THAN THE SPREAD. This one's a toughie, because you almost never see it. If the fav's getting blown out, you've still got to favor them in the second half (expect a scathing halftime speech by the coach), but I don't think the HT number should be as high as the game's spread. Maybe half of the game's spread. If the game's spread isn't too high (which means the fav still has a chance to pull out a straight-up win), I might go 2/3 the spread.
EXAMPLES: Jazz, favored by 9, trail Grizzles by 18. I think I'd make the Jazz -5 here. Maybe -5½.
Maryland, favored over UNC by 7½, trails by 14. I'd make Maryland about -5 here.
DOG WINNING BY LESS THAN THE SPREAD. Fav should be about 2/3 the game's line.
That does it. I'll post a quiz after a while, after you guys have had time to digest this.
One last thing: sometimes, a situation will fall somewhere in between two or more of the above scenarios. If a 1-point favorite is winning by 2, is that "right on the number", "more than the number", or "double the number"? Use some judgement.
Hope this helps.
Bobby
<!-- / message --> <!-- controls -->
