Derby

[JustinCruise]

It's starting to rain hard. It could change the whole strategy of the race since some of these horses clearly don't run well on an off track..

Rains already stopped

 

[JudgeWapner]

Quick squall. Shouldn't have any effect.

 

[8ate]

Nyquiwt, nyquist, the fav wins today, never lost..!!..$$$

 

[8ate]

Nyquiwt, nyquist, the fav wins today, never lost..!!..$$$

..

gl..c ya at ticket counter...

 

[Greenbacks]

Horse looks like another American Pharoah

Cut right into those fast fractions.

Congrats!

 

[slapshot]

Exactly why I'm throwing out the fav this year

Could be wrong but that's my approach

Thanks JW good info

I gotta put some on Nyquist and will look to add some more plays

Thanks for the info Judge

And thanks for the winner JC

 

[arniesarmy]

Nyquist is an absolut lock..>>wager all ya got..gl..

Well played 8ate.... you had no doubt

 

[FearTheRaven]

Like 5-11-13

Hit the trifecta. First time I've won a horse race

 

[8ate]

Hit the trifecta. First time I've won a horse race

,,

So what did it pay???

nice hit..!!

 

[Jstack34]

,,

So what did it pay???

nice hit..!!

It paid 86.70 for $1

 

[JustinCruise]

Thanks for the info Judge

And thanks for the winner JC

There is no value is betting a 2-1 fav in a 20 horse field.

Especially when 17 of the 20 horses are 10-1 or greater.

 

[JustinCruise]

,,

So what did it pay???

nice hit..!!

Smallest tri payout of the derby in my lifetime. Same with the the super, it only paid $500. Most derby superfectas pay mid to high 5 figures.


4 favorites finished in order. Will probably never see that again.

 

[slapshot]

There is no value is betting a 2-1 fav in a 20 horse field.

Especially when 17 of the 20 horses are 10-1 or greater.

sorry but after reading your post Nyquist was the only +ev play in the race

sure not everyday it's +ev but yesterday race 12 at Churchill Downs it was :toast:

 

[EveryGamblersDream]

There is no value is betting a 2-1 fav in a 20 horse field.

Especially when 17 of the 20 horses are 10-1 or greater.

Truth be told, value actually does exist even with the results yesterday.

Take those same odds on a mundane Thursday at Churchill & that exacta is paying closer to $18 - $21 for $2. The tri would come up around $45 or so & the super might not make $100. Because of the huge amount of dead money it actually gives values to the exotics even when it is not the boxcar payouts we used to see before the last 4 years.

Where the value is not is on the win wager side when some of these longshots are actual underlays who should be closer to 100-1 but because of the dead money mainly from novice players, they are actually too short a price even at 30-1.

 

[JustinCruise]

sorry but after reading your post Nyquist was the only +ev play in the race

sure not everyday it's +ev but yesterday race 12 at Churchill Downs it was :toast:

You're reaching

 

[DrunkenHorseplayer]

Smallest tri payout of the derby in my lifetime. Same with the the super, it only paid $500. Most derby superfectas pay mid to high 5 figures.


4 favorites finished in order. Will probably never see that again.

There's a much greater chance that it will happen going forward because, due to the change in how horses qualify for the derby, great horses are going to tend to win instead of decent horses that got lucky and handled a 20 horse field.

 

[honzie]

Truth be told, value actually does exist even with the results yesterday.

Take those same odds on a mundane Thursday at Churchill & that exacta is paying closer to $18 - $21 for $2. The tri would come up around $45 or so & the super might not make $100. Because of the huge amount of dead money it actually gives values to the exotics even when it is not the boxcar payouts we used to see before the last 4 years.

Where the value is not is on the win wager side when some of these longshots are actual underlays who should be closer to 100-1 but because of the dead money mainly from novice players, they are actually too short a price even at 30-1.

Disagree. Like last year, the tri payout was a ripoff. To begin with, everyone knows that there is a ton of "stupid money" in the Derby parimutuel pools every year which is why some of the past years payouts were silly great. Last 2 years it seems criminal. In a 20 horse field, those tri's should have paid double what they did. By comparison, Silver Charms Derby the #2,3*5 favorites were in the tri and that paid $200+ and that was a 13 horse field. THIRTEEN!!! Do the math on that one! I know Nyq was 2-1 fav on top but I will keep bringing up that it was a 20 horse field. If you have the time go back and review the KD card from last year. There was a race on that card where the favs finished 123 and the tri paid better than the Derby tri. Very strange. Your example of the mundane Thursday is fine ..but it is not 20 horse field... more like 8.

 

[honzie]

BTW Judge, thanks for once again putting this all out there - this was not a casual 2 minute post . Good job.

 

[JustinCruise]

Disagree. Like last year, the tri payout was a ripoff. To begin with, everyone knows that there is a ton of "stupid money" in the Derby parimutuel pools every year which is why some of the past years payouts were silly great. Last 2 years it seems criminal. In a 20 horse field, those tri's should have paid double what they did. By comparison, Silver Charms Derby the #2,3*5 favorites were in the tri and that paid $200+ and that was a 13 horse field. THIRTEEN!!! Do the math on that one! I know Nyq was 2-1 fav on top but I will keep bringing up that it was a 20 horse field. If you have the time go back and review the KD card from last year. There was a race on that card where the favs finished 123 and the tri paid better than the Derby tri. Very strange. Your example of the mundane Thursday is fine ..but it is not 20 horse field... more like 8.

Bingo

 

[GoBlue34]

Cruise picks a loser and says there is no value in those that picked the winner and made money. So his value picks lost money but still the right side.

I mean you can't make this stuff up. Literally can't...