DaCoochie Bets NHL Best Bets

[dacoochiebets]

NewJersey Devils vs Minnesota Wild
​

There have been a few days in between, but the home-and-home series between the New Jersey Devils and Minnesota Wild resumes on Thursday evening in Minnesota, and if Sunday night’s matchup showed us anything, it illustrated that these two teams are going to play some high-event hockey. Because on Sunday these two teams combined for 7 goals in what was a truly end-to-end game, and if that persists, and I see no reason why it wouldn’t, that type of game really favors the Devils

Because perhaps no team in the NHL outside of Edmonton or Toronto has the type of firepower that New Jersey skates out on a nightly basis. Whether it be Jack Hughes and his 18 points, Jesper Bratt and his 14, or Tyler Toffoli and his 10, the Devils are just brimming with high-level offensive talent, and as far as I can tell, the Wild just don’t have the bodies, or the goaltending to effectively combat the firepower the Devils possess. Moreover, a look at the Wild’s underlying metrics will not fill you with any optimism for their chances in this one if you were so inclined.

Through 9 games the Wild have posted the league’s 26th worst expected goals share at 5-on-5, and are pretty routenily seeing the ice tilted in the opposition’s direction, losing the shot attempts battle to the tune of the 26th worst Corsi %. Now while these numbers aren’t necessarily the most precise in such a small sample size when you combine the fact that the Wild are giving up the 20th most expected goals with the fact that the goaltending they’ve been receiving from last year’s standout Filip Gustavsson (.885 SV%, -3.6 Goals Saved Above Expected) you have a team in Minnesota who might struggle this season to keep the puck out of their own net.

Now I would be remiss to not mention that the goaltending for the Devils has been far from brilliant itself, but at the end of the day, I think the Devils can outscore most of the problems their poor goaltending might create on most nights. The high-end skill players on this Devils roster are just too adept at creating high-danger chances, and when you pair that with the back-end’s ability to effectively exit the DZone and help further tilt the ice in New Jersey’s favor most nights, I just can’t help but dance with the Devil in the Her Red Dress tonight as road favorites in Minnesota

Devils ML -130 (Play to -134)


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[dacoochiebets]

Los Angeles Kings vs Vegas Golden Knights​

An extra spicy Pacific Division rivalry resumes the hostilities this evening in Sin City as the Los Angeles Kings look to put a bow on a perfect four-game road trip by handing the Golden Knights their first home loss of the season —— and folks I think the road-dog has some value in this one. Because while everyone (rightfully so) has been talking about the blistering hot start the defending champions have gotten off to, the LA Kings are just going about their business at an elite level.

Entering tonight’s game LA is currently sitting third in the Pacific Division with an impressive 7-2-2 record, and has not lost in regulation over their last 6 games. This hot start that McLellan’s group has gotten off to is thanks in large part to the continued commitment this team makes to playing tightly structured hockey. Just like McLellan’s time in San Jose, the Kings compete hard for every puck, and function as a 5-man unit each and every shift. This devotion to detail is why the Kings own a league-leading expected goals share of 57.67% at 5-on-5, and are giving up the third-fewest shots against at 27.4 a game.

But the brilliance of the Kings’ performances is that the rigid defensive structure is in no way limiting the attack. The offense has been firing on all cylinders in the early season, even without Viktor Arvidsson, LA ranks second in the NHL with an average of 4.27 goals per game. The balanced scoring that the Kings have is just so damn hard to stop, if one line doesn’t have it one night, the rest of the group is capable of picking them up. Five players are already into double digits in points, and nine have at least three goals.

The kind of game the Kings play is not so different from the one we see nightly from Vegas mind you. Both teams are structured in their own zone, and both teams have deep forward groups that contribute, and both teams love the physical play. From my perspective there is very little that separates the two, so with the oddsmakers giving Vegas an implied win probability of about 58%, that means for me value lies in the better-rested visitors. So long as the Kings haven’t spent their 3-nights off contracting the Vegas-Flu, I like the chances as a road underdog.

Kings ML +120 (play to +107)

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[dacoochiebets]

Thread Record 1-1 (-0.1 Units)

Arizona Coyotes vs St. Louis Blues
Coyotes ML +105 (play to -110)​

The Arizona Coyotes travel to St. Louis to take on the blues for the second time this season. Arizona was able to secure an easy 6-2 victory in their first meeting, yet oddsmakers are saying this game will be closer, and I’m not so certain that’ll be the case. Because although the Blues have played better of late, but they are still a bottom-tier hockey team, and the Coyotes are no longer that.

Thanks in large part to some good drafting over the past few years the Coyotes now have some serious talent up-and-down their roster. The likes of Cooley and Keller came in as blue-chip prospects and are showing why through the early part of the season. But perhaps more important were the signings the team made over the summer; because guys like Matt Dumba, Travis Dermott, Nick Bjugstad Jason Zucker coming in the door have given this team the experience steady play they’ve been without for so long. In turn you see the proof in the pudding, as Arizona enters tonight’s game ranked 12th in expected goals share, 18th in expected goals for, and 11th in expected goals per 60. And while those numbers aren’t exactly going to dazzle you, when you compare them the struggles of the past, and to tonight’s opponent, they look incredibly flattering to the desert dogs.

Because while Arizona seems to be on an upward trajectory, St. Louis is very much not. Entering tonight’s game the Blues are 29th in my Power Rankings, which may seem harsh if you are just looking at the points on the board, but when you look under the hood hopefully you’ll understand why. In terms of expected goals or Corsi% at 5-on-5 St. Louis is dead last on the season, when you look at expected goals share they are 2nd from bottom, and with regards to expected goals allowed they are 9th from last. Almost anyway you peel the banana this Blues team is significantly worse then their guests this evening, and while it may be true the Blues have had an edge between the pipes, relying on Jordan Binnington to continue his stellar play behind a bad team doesn’t seem like a winning strategy.

So give the Yotes on the ML, and let’s howl at the moon tonight baby with the desert dogs.

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[dacoochiebets]

Thread Record 1-2 (-1.1 Units)

New York Islanders vs Edmonton Oilers​

One day after parting ways with head coach Jay Woodcroft, the struggling Edmonton Oilers will be looking to hit the reset button on their season as they host the New York Islanders in the first official NHL head-coaching outing for Kris Knoblauch. But with an 0-3-1 record over their last four games and fans back on Long Island starting to call for a coaching change themselves, the Islanders very well may be the perfect slump-busters. while the noise surrounding the Edmonton situation has been far louder, things might look a fair bit bleaker for the Islanders moving forward.

For those who don’t know, “Fire Lambert” chants reigned down from the fans following a 4-1 home loss to the Capitals, and frankly, who could blame them? Offensively so far this year the struggles we’ve seen over the past 2 seasons have not exactly subsided. The Islanders currently rank 30th in goals per game this season, and while the expected goals numbers illustrate they’ve been a tad unlucky to score so few, their real concern is that they are not playing the type of defensive game necessary to win with so few offensive differencemakers. Through 13 games the Islanders rank 21st in terms of expected goals allowed at 5-on-5 and most nights are losing the shot attempts battle (48% Corsi). In the past what’s kept them afloat has been all-world goaltending, and while the game of Varlamov has been stellar, Sorokin just hasn’t looked himself. His -1.1 goals saved above expected and .907% save percentage is hardly the Vezina form that we’ve come to expect from the Russian keeper, and so long as he continues to “struggle”, the Islanders are in deep trouble.

The Oilers on the other hand haven’t played as badly as the results have shown, and while I can understand the desire to change the coach from the fanbase, if I were Jay Woodcroft I’d feel a little hard done by. Because if I told you entering this evening’s game Edmonton leads the league in both expected goals share at 5-on-5 (57.82%) as well as expected goals created per 60 you’d probably think I was crazy the way this team has been spoken about. The numbers pretty clearly say they haven’t just stopped creating chances, the issue is they’ve stopped converting them. The team's shooting percentage of just 6.49% at 5-on-5 is currently second last in the league and well below the league average. This paired with some brutal goaltending is why the Oilers have a brutal PDO of .954, which suggests that they're due for a change of fortune in the not-too-distant future provided they can get a save.

And therein lies the issues for the Oilers, because while I have no doubt the offense will turn it around, I’m a lot less inclined to think the goaltending will immediately improve with a new boss behind the bench. Stuart Skinner seems most likely to be the guy the Oilers look to because the Jack Campbell experiment seems to have run its course, but Skinner has struggled mightily in his sophomore year. Through 9 starts Skinner’s posted a league-worst -7.8 goals saved above expected, and while I hope for Northern Albera’s sake he figures it out, I’m so certain he will.

So with both offensives in line for some positive regression, and with Edmonton motivated to impress the new boss and turn this ship back around, I’ve got two angles I’ll be looking to attack in this game, but having to do with goals being scored.

Oilers TT Over 3.5 +114 (play to +105)

Over 6.5 +100 (play to -110)

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Best of luck today!

Just Another Money Monday

Picks and Analysis for Nov. 13th

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[dacoochiebets]

St. Louis Blues vs Tampa Bay Lightning
Thread Record ---- 2-3 (-1.01 Units)
​

The Lightning dressing room likely received a nice little bump of positivity yesterday, as all-world goalie Andrei Vasilevksy practiced with the team for the first time this season. The Russian netminder’s return though won’t come this evening and without him, the harsh reality for the Lightning is that this team just doesn’t deserve to be a road favorite against almost any team in the NHL.

Hell, even with Vasilevsky, if Tampa’s play in their defensive zone doesn’t improve this team will continue to struggle. Entering tonight’s game in St. Louis the Lightning rank 5th from bottom in terms of expected goals allowed per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, and as I spoke about a few days ago, the change in defensive zone coverage over the offseason continues to be the reason for it. The Box-and-Out just isn’t working, illustrated by the Lightning also ranking 27th in terms of high-danger chances allowed, and frankly, it might be the case that the years of long playoff runs are finally taking their toll on Viktor Hedman. The once-perennial Norris Trophy candidate’s play has dropped off, and after years of his team dominating the shot attempts battle when he was on the ice, the Lightning are now winning it just 51% of the time. Pair this with some early-season struggles from Sergachev and a bottom-6 forward group still trying to find their footing, and suddenly you’ve got a team that struggles to keep the puck out of their net.

Meanwhile, the host St. Louis Blues have been quietly putting together a pretty solid start to their season. Entering tonight’s game the Blues have 15 points through 13 games, and while the underlying numbers aren’t the prettiest, so long as Jordan Binnington keeps playing like this, the Blues have a chance to win every single night. The enigmatic goaltender has made 9 starts this season for the Blues and has been utterly brilliant throughout, posting a .923 SV% to go along with 6.7 goals saved above expected. Perhaps no goalie in recent memory better exemplifies the adage “goalies are voodoo” than Binnington, because as we saw when the Blues won the Cup, when the man is feeling it, he’s one of the best goalies in the NHL. Moreover, while the Blues’ offensive group isn’t the deepest, they do have some highly skilled players underperforming both prior expectations and underlying numbers in Jordan Kyrou and Pavel Buchnevich. Both guys are capable of being game-breakers and should be more than capable of taking advantage of some Tampa defensive frailties.

So with all that being said, the two angles I’ll be playing for this game are the Blues ML, as well as the Over. Neither team is playing the best defensively, and both teams have offensive skill players that can bulge the potato sack if given the opportunity. The one differentiator for me is the goaltending, where St. Louis has a sizeable edge in my estimation, at least for the time being.

Blues ML +122 (play to +115)
Over 6.5 -105 (Play to -110)

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Time for a Terrific Tuesday

Picks and Analysis for Nov. 14th

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[dacoochiebets]

Thread Record ---- 3-4 (-.94 Units)​

Vancouver Canucks vs Calgary Flames
​

After failing last night at fading the Canuckleheads because the lowly Islanders blew a 3rd-period lead en route to losing in OT, I am once again asking for you to put your money on the Calgary Flames. And while I know it’s not always been a winning formula over the past 12 months, the Vancouver Canucks just can’t keep getting away with this! There are just too many telltale signs that regression is coming for Vancouver, and when it does I intend to be there to profit.

Vancouver's shooting percentage has ratcheted up to 11.5%, third-best in the NHL, while its save percentage is also teetering at an untenable 94.1%. Regression is plausible in either aspect, but we suspect goaltending will be the first duck to fall. Because as good as the Canucks have been offensively, the defensive zone issues this team has had with this core of players haven’t just disappeared. Vancouver has given up the fourth-most high-danger chances and 10th-most total scoring opportunities.

Moreover, things are getting worse in terms of the process for the Canucks over the past few weeks. Five of their last eight opponents have attempted at least 12 high-danger chances with four of those squads eclipsing 27 scoring opportunities. That's putting an immense amount of pressure on Canucks goaltenders, and although they've responded well thus far, there is a dam that is about to burst, and the floodgates will open. And with Casey DeSmith slated to play the second night of this back-to-back, a leak is all the more likely this evening than it otherwise would be with Dmeko in the net.

Meanwhile, as I spoke about on Tuesday, Calgary is a team that seems to be in line for a turnaround if the process continues to be this strong. Calgary’s possession-driven style of play hasn’t changed from last year despite the new coach, as the Flames rank ninth in Corsi rating at 5-on-5 and eighth in terms of shots-for. Now as was the case last season tilting the ice and playing more of the game in the opposition zone hasn’t meant more wins (yet), but it’s hard to not point to the league’s 2nd worst PDO as a potential reason for optimism. If the on-ice shooting % can regress a little bit to the mean while Markstrom continues to play well between the pipes we might see Calgary go on a little run. And while it did end up being the case that Calgary couldn’t string games together last year despite impressive underlying numbers, it’s hard to imagine the Flames ranking in the top half of the league in high-danger scoring opportunities for and against once again but finishing the season so firmly outside the playoff picture.

Ultimately, Vancouver's 65.0% actual goals-for rating is a long way from its expected value of 48.1%, implying the Canucks will inevitably enter a correction phase over the coming weeks. And while it didn’t work out in my favor yesterday because of a late-game capitulation from the Islanders, I am going to betting that the Canucks regression comes until it inevitably does.

Flames ML -120 (play to -135)

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Thirsty for some Thursday Winners

Picks and Analysis for Nov. 16th

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[bristolnole]

Playing the "due theory"....I never agreed with this strategy. But, it might work tonight...We'll find out!

Why not "play on the streak" instead? You can win many times, but can only lose once.

Best of luck sir!

 

[dacoochiebets]

Thread Record ---- 4/4 (+0.06 Units)

Florida Panthers vs Anaheim Ducks
Ducks ML +155​

The only play from yours truly on the ice in terms of sides and totals comes from sunny California, where the Panthers will be playing the second night of a back-to-back against the Ducks. And from my vantage point, it is this rest advantage for the Ducks that has me Quacking.

Last season the Panthers struggled mightily in the second leg of back-to-backs, going just 3-6-3. This ugly record only gets worse when those back-to-back games are on the road, as the Panthers managed only 4 points from the 6 games they played away from home on the second night of a back-to-back. And I imagine playing on no rest might be especially problematic again this campaign because it means starting in net is Anthony Stolarz. His 2-1-0 record, 2.71 GAA, and .892 save percentage through three contests aren’t exactly something to write home about, but the projection gets even worse when factoring in that two of those three games came against the Sharks and Blackhawks.

Anaheim presents Stolarz with his first real test of the season this evening, and given his middling play against weaker competition, combined with his 3.73 GAA and .897 save percentage in 19 outings as a member of the Ducks last year, I don’t think the revenge angle will matter much. The guy just isn’t a good goaltender, and although he’s not likely to play often, when he does I’ll be looking to target the Panthers.

Meanwhile, Anaheim is no longer the worst team in the NHL! The highly touted youth is beginning to come through and produce as both William Carlson and Mason McTavish have looked like guys ready to break games. But more importantly for a mediocre (too bad) defensive team, the goaltending has drastically improved this season. John Gibson has regained the form that had him pegged as a future Vezina Candidate earlier in his career, and while it is hard to imagine him maintaining a Top-5 level of play, the upgrade from abysmal to above-average is massive. Particularly for a young team still learning the defensive side of the game having a goalie who can bail you out a few mistakes allows the offensive flair to have a chance.

So while it is typically felines who prey on the avian species, this evening I’m betting we see the Cats get their eyes pecked out by the young and feisty Ducks.



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A Friday Fistful of Free Player Props

Picks and Analysis for Nov. 17th

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