Crypto holders

[snoop]

In Jan, he said the Fed would hike rate incrementally, everyone assumed he will do a series of .25 until they hit 2.5%. Mar CPI reading was a disaster, they moved the goalpost, they opt for .50 instead. They market got rug pulled. Apr CPI reading last week didn't show any improvement led the market to speculate the Fed could hike rate even faster, maybe .75 (Fed credibility is in question). Fed gangs have to come out last week to kill 75 pts rate hike rumor. The damages have been done. The bounce off Thursday low is a good sign.

Now we know:

Tapering primer: $50B/mo ($35B Treasury, $15B MBS) in June/July/Aug

Starting Sep:

Fed fund rate will set at 2% - 2.25%

QT on autopilot mode: $90B/mo ($60B Treasury - $30B MBS) for a duration of 2 years.

A lot of thing can happen between Sep 22' to Sep 24'. Fed priority is bring down the inflation, they can blew up anything along the way and call it an 'accident' LOL.

In the mean time, speculative assets are the first out of the door in the red day, profitless hypergrowth tech stocks aka Cathie Wood's ARKK is top of the list, then cryptos, e-commerce (AMZN, SHOP, ETSY..), even cash cow big techs (MSFT, GOOG, AAPL...) got killed, banks are flat.

Commodity/energy is only group that is winning in 2022.

 

[PatsFan1283]

My buddy put 250K in BTC and Ethereum years ago - ran it to 4 mil and sold - when I told him some of the most elite financial minds truly believe crypto is worthless he replies - well if its worthless y do I have 4 mil in my bank account - then his oh so smart ass starts with his little kiddie crypto forum shit about - mooning, lambo money, diamond hands, wife changing money, etc. - after taxes he has about 3. something mil - puts it all on some coin called Celsius associated with some online Israeli bank - he's down to under 500K - he's long stride is gone - his big peacock feathers disappeared - it's all gambling from what ive seen

Wow

Did he have a lot of other $ besides that? That seems pretty unusual even for crypto/market gambling stories these days

 

[Seymour]

44 years old - living off his parents - waiting for them to die

 

[snoop]

Tesla booked $1B gain of BTC in 2 months. The bitcoin on Tesla book is now a 'free-ride'.

 

[PatsFan1283]

In Jan, he said the Fed would hike rate incrementally, everyone assumed he will do a series of .25 until they hit 2.5%. Mar CPI reading was a disaster, they moved the goalpost, they opt for .50 instead. They market got rug pulled. Apr CPI reading last week didn't show any improvement led the market to speculate the Fed could hike rate even faster, maybe .75 (Fed credibility is in question). Fed gangs have to come out last week to kill 75 pts rate hike rumor. The damages have been done. The bounce off Thursday low is a good sign.

Now we know:

Tapering primer: $50B/mo ($35B Treasury, $15B MBS) in June/July/Aug

Starting Sep:

Fed fund rate will set at 2% - 2.25%

QT on autopilot mode: $90B/mo ($60B Treasury - $30B MBS) for a duration of 2 years.

A lot of thing can happen between Sep 22' to Sep 24'. Fed priority is bring down the inflation, they can blew up anything along the way and call it an 'accident' LOL.

In the mean time, speculative assets are the first out of the door in the red day, profitless hypergrowth tech stocks aka Cathie Wood's ARKK is top of the list, then cryptos, e-commerce (AMZN, SHOP, ETSY..), even cash cow big techs (MSFT, GOOG, AAPL...) got killed, banks are flat.

Commodity/energy is only group that is winning in 2022.

Yes, agree on all that but for how long?

You really think if shit breaks that Powell will stay on a Volker like warpath to fight inflation? I’ll believe that when I see it.

That would probably cause a massive amount of wealth destruction and cascade us into recession.

How do you blow up anything along the way? You’re gonna get a wave of defaults and double digit UE

You really think once that’s in the picture they will stay committed to fighting inflation at all costs?

 

[PatsFan1283]

You couldn’t even have a recession like that anymore with all the debt, foreclosures would go through the roof, households wealth is tied to equities way more than in the past as well

Honestly if the inflation genie can’t be put back in the bottle w/ relative little asset pain then I think you probably just see something like another cares act. Everyone gets 2k worth of stimulus checks or something.

That will be preferable to 2k S&P and upside down housing leading to a recession way worse than 08

 

[snoop]

They don't have a clue. They're treating it as if it's ongoing experiment. Energy cost has to come down, central banks can't print oil. UK/EU/US is in the same boat.

No one predicted oil dropped to a minus $30/b. If they somehow manage to pass NOPEC ( I really doubt it), it could send oil to $200 - $300, your 'Volker' wish will come true if that plays out.

 

[PatsFan1283]

So what do you think S&P bottom is then? If fed funds rate gets to 3% in the next 6 months it’s gotta be pretty low

Im long oil equities and have been for a minute now but I do think we’re getting to a point here where demand destruction may occur, 07-08 type high/low

 

[snoop]

You couldn’t even have a recession like that anymore with all the debt, foreclosures would go through the roof, households wealth is tied to equities way more than in the past as well

Honestly if the inflation genie can’t be put back in the bottle w/ relative little asset pain then I think you probably just see something like another cares act. Everyone gets 2k worth of stimulus checks or something.

That will be preferable to 2k S&P and upside down housing leading to a recession way worse than 08

I actually think housing could be spare this time. We're in a different place than 2008. Credit quality is 'day and night' difference. Home owners have a lot of skin in the game.

Housing will probably cool down a little. Low inventory can support home price longer. Unless people can pay their next house with cash, very few people want to sell, no one wants to trade 3% fix rate for a 6% fix rate.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Yeah, it’ll be resilient to a point but 3% vs 7% about a 50% increase in monthly payments

Between labor, regs, materials inflation cost of new construction sky high as well

I just come back to they will step in and save assets when that choice needs to be made, same story as last 40 years.

Bernanke may have pulled the term “wealth effect” out of his ass but he did succeed in making the economy very dependent on the price of assets

 

[snoop]

So what do you think S&P bottom is then? If fed funds rate gets to 3% in the next 6 months it’s gotta be pretty low

Im long oil equities and have been for a minute now but I do think we’re getting to a point here where demand destruction may occur, 07-08 type high/low

Tough call - I wish I know. We can be very selective with cash minting money and still get killed in this market. We'll see next week if the bounce on Thursday is a near term bottom or just a dead cat bounce. May typically a very bad month (last 13 years I count). S&P pre-pandemic level was 3400 - something to keep an eye on.

 

[snoop]

Lots of stocks already gave up all pandemic gain or crashed way below Mar 20's low (NFLX, PYPL). It's been brutal.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Lots of stocks already gave up all pandemic gain or crashed way below Mar 20's low (NFLX, PYPL). It's been brutal.

Any opinion on Uranium funds or equities? After the real Russiagate, it looks like these countries are realizing nuclear power is their only path forward to get away from fossil fuels. Even the green lobbies will have to accept that sooner than later

URNM, Cameco

They trade like tech basically but could catch a bid if there is a real paradigm shift as to how to decarbonize the planet

 

[Ricboff]

correlations are dynamic . QQQ/BTC correlation coefficient over the last 90 days is .8., they walk hand in hand (as a reference spy/qqq correlation is .98) . BTC asset class as its aged has matured into risk-on high beta. Rather unfortunate. But again , correlations are dynamic . .8 now can turn to .2 for 6 mth period as an example, or even go -ve. . no one knows the future, BTC is not a tech company, and its a very young asset class, still not well regulated.

the correlation was poor not too long ago actually. As an example between 02/2018 -02/2019 BTC lost 61%. Obviously it was not falling in tandem with growth assets during this 12 mth period.

Chop- big support at $21 k? huh? how so? 2020/12 was the breakout , that's a zone of $19, 000-$19,400. I dont see, at its current price , any support until this zone.

 

[snoop]

Any opinion on Uranium funds or equities? After the real Russiagate, it looks like these countries are realizing nuclear power is their only path forward to get away from fossil fuels. Even the green lobbies will have to accept that sooner than later

URNM, Cameco

They trade like tech basically but could catch a bid if there is a real paradigm shift as to how to decarbonize the planet

Nuclear power is always a tough sell to the public for a good reason (Chernobyl/Fukushima). UK plans to restart several old plants, Germany is still sticking to their gun of phasing out all nuclear plants by 2030. If they can get their hands on alternative energy supply...LNG, solar, wind, tidal, geothermal...etc. The headlines support story stocks (TSLA, ENPH,). DVN, OXY, EOG is also doing very well, maybe the population is realizing LNG is just as 'clean' as 'green' energy.

 

[Ricboff]

Tough call - I wish I know. We can be very selective with cash minting money and still get killed in this market. We'll see next week if the bounce on Thursday is a near term bottom or just a dead cat bounce. May typically a very bad month (last 13 years I count). S&P pre-pandemic level was 3400 - something to keep an eye on.

that's waht the chart is saying if it cant hold last week's low. it may pierce it if a W bottom is actually going to play out but it needs to reclaim fast , or else no W pattern and rather 340-330 is in play, call it the capitulation zone lol

i agree, energy is a biggie. If Putin follows through and shuts off the tap for Europe , look out Europe GDP and it spills over. On the flip side, a coolling of CPI over the next few months and at 8:30 am when the number comes out a LONG LONG green candle can emerge

SPY

4 yr weekly

 

[snoop]

The butcher has shut off gas/electricity supply to Finland effective midnight last night. Putin next phase of the war is to weaponizing the energy. Everyone could see from this from thousand miles away - except Angela Merkel.

Finland President is brutally honest at the press conference. He basically saying if the option is to die, they' rather die with the NATO.

 

[snoop]

Bernanke is on the book tour interview. His book is avail on Amazon May 17.

I cant find entire interview on CNBC, but he touches a little bit of everything from these vids.

About inflation

50 pts rake hike

Recession and bitcoin

 

[raiders72]

Bitcoin is a store of value. Other cryptos will be more efficient as point of sale.

 

[raiders72]

World's Wealthiest Annual Ranking Now Lists 12 Crypto Billionaires​

World's Wealthiest Annual Ranking Now Lists 12 Crypto Billionaires – Featured Bitcoin News

There are now 12 billionaires that work directly within the crypto industry and the list of crypto billionaires is 3x larger than 2020.

news.bitcoin.com