Crypto holders

[PatsFan1283]

What does bitcoin maximalist mean to you?

Nothing cryptic, but that is all you really want to say is buy BTC, right?

So just say that....Buy BTC/ETH, you will smash the next 4 years regardless of what happens with stocks, central banking, the fed, interest rates, the economy, etc

The correlation of the last 2 years, or whatever correlation you think you see in 2018 are meaningles, buy BTC/ETH....That is what you want to tell me, correct?

 

[raiders72]

Do you understand the chart in post 95?

 

[PatsFan1283]

They have been negatively correlated. I seriously don't think you've said anything right.

Then you aren't seeing the forest from the trees because of your own cognitive biases

You even said they've been correlated since 2020, how wasn't 2019 correlated? Both went up after the 2018 downturns.

 

[raiders72]

Nothing cryptic, but that is all you really want to say is buy BTC, right?

So just say that....Buy BTC/ETH, you will smash the next 4 years regardless of what happens with stocks, central banking, the fed, interest rates, the economy, etc

The correlation of the last 2 years, or whatever correlation you think you see in 2018 are meaningles, buy BTC/ETH....That is what you want to tell me, correct?

Bitcoin maximalist believe that bitcoin is the only crypto needed. As I said, you haven't said anything right.

 

[raiders72]

Metaverse, NFT, tokens are the future. Bitcoin will be replaced in 100 years but the metaverse is just beginning.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Do you understand the chart in post 95?

BTC started 2019 at 3800, ended year at 7200

S&P started at 2500, ended year at 3200.....both are massive years for their asset class after both had downswings 4th Q 2018

In 1st Q 2019 the fed pivoted from raising rates to cutting rates and stopped unwinding the bond market, this buoyed asset prices....That correlation has largely continued to this day.

 

[raiders72]

Unlike a bitcoin maximalist, I believe that bitcoin is inferior to other cryptos. Bitcoin is a store of value and the most secure.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Bitcoin maximalist believe that bitcoin is the only crypto needed. As I said, you haven't said anything right.

Lol @ cherry picking an off hand comment which has 0 to do with correlation of risk on assets

You got emotions with this shit or something?

 

[raiders72]

BTC started 2019 at 3800, ended year at 7200

S&P started at 2500, ended year at 3200.....both are massive years for their asset class after both had downswings 4th Q 2018

In 1st Q 2019 the fed pivoted from raising rates to cutting rates and stopped unwinding the bond market, this buoyed asset prices....That correlation has largely continued to this day.

You don't even understand correlation. -1 is a negative correlation. +1 is a positive correlation. All the graphs and some quotes show the correlations numerically.

 

[raiders72]

Lol @ cherry picking an off hand comment which has 0 to do with correlation of risk on assets

You got emotions with this shit or something?

I'm just totally confused. Normally I like and enjoy your posts. But you aren't close to understanding anything about cryptos or correlations.

 

[PatsFan1283]

It is all there, I think you just don't want to understand it.

I also think you being very enthusiastic about crypto has clouded your judgement as to how correlated it is to other risk on assets (tech stocks would be best proxy)

Why do you think it was so correlated in 2020-present? Just dumb luck?

 

[raiders72]

It is all there, I think you just don't want to understand it.

I also think you being very enthusiastic about crypto has clouded your judgement as to how correlated it is to other risk on assets (tech stocks would be best proxy)

Why do you think it was so correlated in 2020-present? Just dumb luck?

I'm going to post a chart below one more time. Red is a negative correlation. Purple is a positive correlation.

 

[raiders72]

 

[PatsFan1283]

The chart is based on daily/monthly movements though, I never said the correlation was perfect.

At the end of the year both went way up and easing financial conditions had a ton to do with that. Basically anyone that knows anything about finance would agree with that.

pre-2017 I don't really see why there would be any correlation, bitcoin was a microscopic asset class back then.


I think the argument you are looking for is correlation doesn't = causation and the future won't be the same as the past, which may be true but since it has "matured" as an asset class (I think we would both agree this started in/around late 2017, it has become increasingly correlated)

 

[raiders72]

Positive numbers = positive correlations
Negative numbers = negative correlations

 

[raiders72]

Do you understand the graph above and what those numbers mean?

 

[PatsFan1283]

'22 is not on there, but it will basically be the same as '20 and '21

'18 I agree is noisy until the 4th quarter where it is clear as both cratered thanks to fed tightening

 

[PatsFan1283]

Positive numbers = positive correlations
Negative numbers = negative correlations

lol, do you?

What do you think the graph is telling you based on how correlations work

 

[raiders72]

The value for a correlation coefficient is always between -1 and 1 where:

• -1 indicates a perfectly negative linear correlation between two variables
• 0 indicates no linear correlation between two variables
• 1 indicates a perfectly positive linear correlation between two variables

If two variables have a correlation of zero, it indicates that they’re not related in any way.

 

[raiders72]