Crypto holders

[PatsFan1283]

Lol when has there been inverse relationships?

It has always largely traded in tandem

2017 4Q surge, 2018 1st Q surge

2018 4th Q slide thanks to QT, 2019 goes back up thanks to Powell pivot

2020 goes up after pandemic surge, early '22 gets killed because of tightening


If you think it has long term utility then it has long term utility, I'm not really trying to debate that. But it moves in tandem with QQQ basically

 

[raiders72]

Crypto crash in a nutshell:

View attachment 32746

That could be true above since Blackrock has their hands in everything. I may be wrong but I think that Do Kwon was the real crook in all of this. This isn't his first scam. Also this crashed LUNA and UST but not the crypto market.

 

[raiders72]

Lol when has there been inverse relationships?

It has always largely traded in tandem

2017 4Q surge, 2018 1st Q surge

2018 4th Q slide thanks to QT, 2019 goes back up thanks to Powell pivot

2020 goes up after pandemic surge, early '22 gets killed because of tightening


If you think it has long term utility then it has long term utility, I'm not really trying to debate that. But it moves in tandem with QQQ basically

LOL. There have been inverse relations, bitcoin has even been the indicator moving first during positive correlations a day or two in advance. While positively correlated when the bitcoin price meets the miner's break even point there have been the biggest bitcoin dumps. As I said, people just assume it now because of how strong the correlation is the last two years.

 

[raiders72]

The Blockforce analysis, which looked at bitcoin and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500) from January 2015 through Oct. 11, 2018, found that the correlation during this period was not substantial......................

"Historically, the correlation between the S&P 500 and Bitcoin has been insignificant. Although correlation values between the two asset classes has ticked up this year versus historical averages, with the current correlation hovering around .11, we believe this to be an insignificant value and don’t believe the two markets to be related," said Blockforce CEO Eric Ervin.

 

[PatsFan1283]

LOL. There have been inverse relations, bitcoin has even been the indicator moving first during positive correlations a day or two in advance. While positively correlated when the bitcoin price meets the miner's break even point there have been the biggest bitcoin dumps. As I said, people just assume it now because of how strong the correlation is the last two years.

During big moves to upside/downside it just trades in tandem, this is plainly obvious to see

 

[raiders72]

January 2018 bitcoin crashed. Stocks didn't until late in the year.

 

[raiders72]

During big moves to upside/downside it just trades in tandem, this is plainly obvious to see

Look at the biggest bitcoin dumps the last 3 years. They all happened during miner break even point.

 

[raiders72]

We know exactly what bitcoin will do. Just before the halving there is a bull run. Sometime after that there is a bear market. Wash, rinse, repeat.

 

[CHOPTALK]

QQQ correlation vs Bitcoin halving

We know exactly what bitcoin will do. Just before the halving there is a bull run. Sometime after that there is a bear market. Wash, rinse, repeat.

The bull run normally starts 3 to 6 months after the halving .
I don’t think the bottom this time will go below 21k.
The support at that level is massive .

But we not quite to the bottom yet .
I said on this forum many times when it was 60+ that was the top and it would return to these levels . And here we are .

I very wisely did not add much to my positions during the run up .

I will be in accumulation mode very soon though for 2024

 

[PatsFan1283]

January 2018 bitcoin crashed. Stocks didn't until late in the year.

January 2018 was a terrible month for the market actually

 

[raiders72]

QQQ correlation vs Bitcoin halving

The bull run normally starts 3 to 6 months after the halving .
I don’t think the bottom this time will go below 21k.
The support at that level is massive .

But we not quite to the bottom yet .
I said on this forum many times when it was 60+ that was the top and it would return to these levels . And here we are .

I very wisely did not add much to my positions during the run up .

I will be in accumulation mode very soon though for 2024

I got fooled and thought the bottom would be $40k thinking that institutional money would be a safety net. Although as I posted here, I moved out of most everything a year ago and went to NFTs/metaverse. Hopefully I can time the bull run and I'll get back into the cryptos.

 

[PatsFan1283]

If QQQ goes up, crypto will go up

if QQQ goes down, crypto will go down

so decide how aggressively you think Powell will be in raising rates and letting bonds unwind, that's all you need to know for the direction of crypto

atleast in the near term

 

[raiders72]

If QQQ goes up, crypto will go up

if QQQ goes down, crypto will go down

so decide how aggressively you think Powell will be in raising rates and letting bonds unwind, that's all you need to know for the direction of crypto

atleast in the near term

I can definitely agree with you on short term moves and some longer since they are currently coupled and it'll continue until the next bull run. Then is will decouple if the stock market goes down.

Prior to this strong correlation, there were tons of other factors that affected only bitcoin. Financial situations in other countries, bitcoin rules in China, etc.

 

[PatsFan1283]

I could see bitcoin or ETH decoupling maybe but the alts I think will just trade based on risk on or risk off for awhile

NFTs are getting killed aren't they?

People gotta decide what they think has long-term utility and what doesn't because when the govt prints 7 trillion dollars and the fed buys another 5B in bonds in 2 years, a lot of stuff is going to go up in value that has no worth

 

[PatsFan1283]

5T* in bonds

 

[raiders72]

I could see bitcoin or ETH decoupling maybe but the alts I think will just trade based on risk on or risk off for awhile

NFTs are getting killed aren't they?

People gotta decide what they think has long-term utility and what doesn't because when the govt prints 7 trillion dollars and the fed buys another 5B in bonds in 2 years, a lot of stuff is going to go up in value that has no worth

NFTs definitely getting killed now but they increased so much that people in early that were getting drops still made great money. Some may have gone from a 500x gain to 50x gain type of thing.

 

[raiders72]

I could see bitcoin or ETH decoupling maybe but the alts I think will just trade based on risk on or risk off for awhile

NFTs are getting killed aren't they?

People gotta decide what they think has long-term utility and what doesn't because when the govt prints 7 trillion dollars and the fed buys another 5B in bonds in 2 years, a lot of stuff is going to go up in value that has no worth

I also think that ETH will be #1 in a couple years.

 

[Seymour]

Everyone has a theory on Bitcoin - they're just over thinking it - Warren Buffet puts a value of zero on it - Jamie Dimon has it $0.00 - that's all I need to know - call in BTC or call it Gamestock - let someone else roll the dice

 

[raiders72]

Everyone has a theory on Bitcoin - they're just over thinking it - Warren Buffet puts a value of zero on it - Jamie Dimon has it $0.00 - that's all I need to know - call in BTC or call it Gamestock - let someone else roll the dice

Buffet doesn't understand it. For Dimon, BTC is a threat to banks. Billionaires and millionaires under 65, not in the banking business, are pro bitcoin such as Mark Cuban and Elon Musk. They are heavy into cryptos.

 

[raiders72]

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