The Fish f'd me this week.
Not only did I drop 2u on the spread but I added 0.5u live after I saw Flores -ev play calling.
Eg onside kick when down 7 with 11 minutes to play, around 95% chance of giving the ball to the Skins in good field position.
Next possession Flores punts when 4th a 5 at the 50 when Fitzpatric was hot. With a deep ball from the 50 on 4th down, 2 good things can happen 1) a completion, 2) a defensive pass interference call. The worst that can happen is an incompletion, as even an interception on a deep throw is usually similar to a punt.
Flores is a smart guy and knows the numbers but made calls like this the entire day [aggressive when ev- and not aggressive when ev+], but he didn't count of Fitzpatric turning into Fitzmagic and nearly derailing their draft position.
The Fish players played hard and IMO deserved the W, and with decent play calling may have won the game comfortably. Not sure what this says about the Redskins but not too much positive. WHen time is running down and you only need a first down to ice the game why not throw the ball???? AP was averaging just over 4yards per carry [taking away his 25 yarder]. smh.
So my NFL record is now +1.19u. Theres a fine line between success and failure, ie if one or 2 plays had gone my way it would be around +11, but it is what it is.
Fortunately I didn't have any other NFL bets...... and luckily held off backing the Browns.
I also had a bit of positive variance in College games so my BR is still hanging in there. I was lucky enough to visit Louisiana a few years ago and am happy for Coach O and the Tigers fans after the good win against the Gators.
NFL notes
Coach Zimmer seems to have discovered the secret as to why winning teams run the ball. After they have built a lead through passing offense, they can run the ball to shorten the game to prevent the other team from having enough possessions to make a come back. Kirk Cousins must have played well as I couldn't hear Mike Florio whining about him for 4 hours.
49ers looked really good again.
It took the Seahawks a few series before they cracked the code to Kitchens offense. I can imagine Carroll at halftime after checking the tape "Sh*t, they're actually still running their high school offense."
Falcons were embarrassed again, this time by the Kliff Kingsbury college offense. Matt Ryan wanted to have Matt LeFleur as OC after Kyle Shanahan departed, but Falcons brains trust wanted Sark, the rest is history. With a good OC they were one of the top teams in the league, now not so much.
2018 Cowboys with no Amare Cooper were an average team, fast forward....
2019 Cowboys with no Amare Cooper are an average team.
2020 prediction Dak gets franchized and traded, Jerrah hires Lincoln Riley and trades up to get Jalen Hurts.
Aaron Rogers throws shade on Matt LeFleur again, saying he told LeFleur to put Allen Lazard in the game in Q4.
Thoughts on capping
My capping uses the basic technique of using efficiency stats to project yards, and finally I've got it pretty good at predicting the Vegas lines, and actual yards.
However, yards don't seem to matter that much in the modern NFL, I haven't finished running the numbers [or even 100% sure of what numbers to tun] but I'm looking at a couple of other metrics additional to the efficiency stats. It's doing my head in at the moment, but I'm trying numerize coaching and big play potential [after listening to Coach Myer] and see how they correlate with the lines and the actual outcomes.
This week's early bets
I've taken a parlay KC -3 and Colts -1 at +250 for 1u.
Both divisional rivalry games, Broncos coming off a desperate win and the Colts coming off the bye against the Texans.
And put down 1u on the Saints +3 at +100 and the 49ers -10 at -105