Yankees vs Astros
Astros ML -125
A guy who just might become a household name come the fall will be on the mound for the Astros (Cristian Javier) as they play host to the MLB’s best New York Yankees in the first of a doubleheader —— and as surprised as some might be that the Yankees are dogs in this game, you’ll find me riding with the Astros.
Because Javier might just be THAT dude —- He owns a 33.9% Hard-Hit Percentage and strikes out a large percentage of hitters (35.2% K rate), and if you don’t love batted ball numbers his raw digits ain’t half bad either; He comes in 6-5 with a 3.22 ERA, a 1.047 WHIP, 30 walks and 112 strikeouts over 78.1 innings of work this year. Better still is xERA is 2.54, meaning the guy has been unlucky apparently.
Behind him is a line-up that just MASHES lefties, and is going against a man in Jordan Montgomery who enjoyed the opposite side of the luck spectrum a tad so far this year. His regular old man ERA is 3.27, but his expected is 4.19, and his xBA is in the bottom 20% of the big leagues, that is to say, the guy has been lucky to be so successful. Now that’s not to say he’s no good, he doesn't walk a soul and is certainly a solid rotation piece. But towards the end of June, he began to struggle, allowing four and five earned runs in back-to-back appearances, perhaps a sign of fatigue?
Not good news when facing these Astros bats, who even without Yordan Álvarez and Michael Brantley, they’ve got 5 men in the order hitting above a .330xWOBA. Expect Javie to keep the Yanks bats off the scent, and for the Astros to jump on Montgomery early as they look to shorten the gap ever so slightly between themselves and the Bronx Bombers.
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https://coochievsbookie.substack.com/
Astros ML -125
A guy who just might become a household name come the fall will be on the mound for the Astros (Cristian Javier) as they play host to the MLB’s best New York Yankees in the first of a doubleheader —— and as surprised as some might be that the Yankees are dogs in this game, you’ll find me riding with the Astros.
Because Javier might just be THAT dude —- He owns a 33.9% Hard-Hit Percentage and strikes out a large percentage of hitters (35.2% K rate), and if you don’t love batted ball numbers his raw digits ain’t half bad either; He comes in 6-5 with a 3.22 ERA, a 1.047 WHIP, 30 walks and 112 strikeouts over 78.1 innings of work this year. Better still is xERA is 2.54, meaning the guy has been unlucky apparently.
Behind him is a line-up that just MASHES lefties, and is going against a man in Jordan Montgomery who enjoyed the opposite side of the luck spectrum a tad so far this year. His regular old man ERA is 3.27, but his expected is 4.19, and his xBA is in the bottom 20% of the big leagues, that is to say, the guy has been lucky to be so successful. Now that’s not to say he’s no good, he doesn't walk a soul and is certainly a solid rotation piece. But towards the end of June, he began to struggle, allowing four and five earned runs in back-to-back appearances, perhaps a sign of fatigue?
Not good news when facing these Astros bats, who even without Yordan Álvarez and Michael Brantley, they’ve got 5 men in the order hitting above a .330xWOBA. Expect Javie to keep the Yanks bats off the scent, and for the Astros to jump on Montgomery early as they look to shorten the gap ever so slightly between themselves and the Bronx Bombers.
If you liked this play and would like my full-card e-mailed to your inbox each morning, sign-up for my FREE newsletter!
https://coochievsbookie.substack.com/
