Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Sr. RH Jason Urquidez vs. Jr. LH Zach Kroenke
General Impression
Before this tourney started, I felt the weakest team in it was Oregon State, with Arizona State right behind. Now that OSU has been eliminated, Arizona State takes over that role. One of the main reasons I felt that way, was the lack of depth in their pitching staff. But this game hits an unexpected snag, and the Sun Devils will get to start their ace vs. Nebraska's #3, in a potential upset-special.
With a senior on the mound, ASU one of those scrappy teams that don't care about fans and crowd noise. They took 2 out of 3 from defending national champs at Fullerton. An interesting side note, is ASU head coach Pat Murphy had his team practice in dress-shirts, ties, and athletic shorts on the eve of game 1 at Fullerton to relax his team and remind them to have fun during the postseason.
Arizona State's Starter
Sr. RHP Jason Urquidez is by far this staff's ace. He's a personality who wants the ball, and watching him on TV at that Fullerton series, you can see this kid just gets in a zone, his face is like ice, and he just competes. I told a poster on here, if I found a reason to bet ASU, I would inform him. Urquidez is reason #1. 10-4 3.73 ERA and opponents are batting .246 against him. Not extremely dominant, but he gets the job done. He pitched in game 1 against Nebraska and had a rough outing because I feel he was burned out a bit. He started game 1 at Cal State, then came in relief in game 3 for 3.2 innings of shutout ball. He threw 2 IP, gave up 3 hits and 1 earned run against Nebraska before he was pulled. He only threw 52 pitches, and he's had 3 days rest, so it's similiar to a mid-start bullpen. I like that he's had a chance to get his feet wet with their crowd and he knows what to expect.
Nebraska's Starter
Nebraska starts #3 starter left-hander Zach Kroenke. He's not a true #3 as Nebraska has thrown a different pitcher and struggled to find a permanent 3rd starter all year. He'll have a tough task going up against ASU's ace Urquidez, but he also holds an advantage on over ASU's predominantly left-handed hitting lineup. His advantage won't take a true left-on-left effect over ASU's lefty lineup because he's regarded as a hard throwing lefty that pitches predominanly with the fastball, not a whole lot of sliders, etc. He'll have a tough act to follow after Tennessee freshman lefty James Adkins dominated the ASU lineup with sliders and breaking balls before tiring late in the game.
ASU's Advantage
ASU is the scrappy darkhorse-type team that could have a shot to knock off Nebraska. After dropping a close decision to Nebraska in game one 5-3, they are confident and excited to play Nebraska after picking up the win, and knocking out the Vols. They're happy to stay alive, one game at a time. Nebraska, on the other hand, is still disappointed to not have beaten Florida in front of their home crowd, and now they look at the grueling task of fighting through the loser's bracket with disappointment and a negative mind-set. I think they'll have their minds stuck on last game for the first part of this game, with what could have beens and should haves. ASU will have the convienence of starting their ace again since he only threw 50 pitches in game one, and he has had three days rest. Urquidez can shut down any team on any given day. Kroenke threw 0.2 IP against ASU in game one, he gave up 1 hit and had 1 K. Besides that he hasn't pitched extended innings in over two weeks, and rust could be a factor as he settles in.
Nebraska's Advantage
Obviously, we are all aware now that Nebraska has the home crowd advantage. And regardless of Kroenke's fastball-pitching style, he still holds a major left-on-left matchup over ASU's lefthanded lineup. Nebraska's pen is deep, and they have plenty of guys to run out there if Kroenke is off. Although Nebraska isn't that good of a hitting team, I liked some things I saw from their bats vs. Florida, and I'm still convinced they are the better team in this matchup.
Bottom Line
Bottom line is Nebraska is the better team no matter how much you want to try to root for those scrappy underdogs of ASU. But this line dictates a value play on the other side. Is the line worth -240 and dropping that kind of chalk? No, this is an inflated line based on the public getting caught up in the "sea of red" nonsense; especially with the announced starters of ace vs. #3. Nebraska's disappoint to be in the loser's bracket, coupled with ASU's newfound confidence after knocking out the Vols and them starting their ace makes them a potential live dog at a very nice price.
My Line
Nebraska -140
Current Line
Nebraska -240
My Play
(1.5 unit) Arizona State +200
Nebraska is the better team, but this line is just too good to pass up. I don't recommend laying -240 against Urquidez. #1 starter vs. #3 starter. Disappointed Nebraska vs. enthusiastic scrappy ASU. IMO, either lay off this game or make a small play on the dog and take your 2:1 odds.
Best of luck.
Sr. RH Jason Urquidez vs. Jr. LH Zach Kroenke
General Impression
Before this tourney started, I felt the weakest team in it was Oregon State, with Arizona State right behind. Now that OSU has been eliminated, Arizona State takes over that role. One of the main reasons I felt that way, was the lack of depth in their pitching staff. But this game hits an unexpected snag, and the Sun Devils will get to start their ace vs. Nebraska's #3, in a potential upset-special.
With a senior on the mound, ASU one of those scrappy teams that don't care about fans and crowd noise. They took 2 out of 3 from defending national champs at Fullerton. An interesting side note, is ASU head coach Pat Murphy had his team practice in dress-shirts, ties, and athletic shorts on the eve of game 1 at Fullerton to relax his team and remind them to have fun during the postseason.
Arizona State's Starter
Sr. RHP Jason Urquidez is by far this staff's ace. He's a personality who wants the ball, and watching him on TV at that Fullerton series, you can see this kid just gets in a zone, his face is like ice, and he just competes. I told a poster on here, if I found a reason to bet ASU, I would inform him. Urquidez is reason #1. 10-4 3.73 ERA and opponents are batting .246 against him. Not extremely dominant, but he gets the job done. He pitched in game 1 against Nebraska and had a rough outing because I feel he was burned out a bit. He started game 1 at Cal State, then came in relief in game 3 for 3.2 innings of shutout ball. He threw 2 IP, gave up 3 hits and 1 earned run against Nebraska before he was pulled. He only threw 52 pitches, and he's had 3 days rest, so it's similiar to a mid-start bullpen. I like that he's had a chance to get his feet wet with their crowd and he knows what to expect.
Nebraska's Starter
Nebraska starts #3 starter left-hander Zach Kroenke. He's not a true #3 as Nebraska has thrown a different pitcher and struggled to find a permanent 3rd starter all year. He'll have a tough task going up against ASU's ace Urquidez, but he also holds an advantage on over ASU's predominantly left-handed hitting lineup. His advantage won't take a true left-on-left effect over ASU's lefty lineup because he's regarded as a hard throwing lefty that pitches predominanly with the fastball, not a whole lot of sliders, etc. He'll have a tough act to follow after Tennessee freshman lefty James Adkins dominated the ASU lineup with sliders and breaking balls before tiring late in the game.
ASU's Advantage
ASU is the scrappy darkhorse-type team that could have a shot to knock off Nebraska. After dropping a close decision to Nebraska in game one 5-3, they are confident and excited to play Nebraska after picking up the win, and knocking out the Vols. They're happy to stay alive, one game at a time. Nebraska, on the other hand, is still disappointed to not have beaten Florida in front of their home crowd, and now they look at the grueling task of fighting through the loser's bracket with disappointment and a negative mind-set. I think they'll have their minds stuck on last game for the first part of this game, with what could have beens and should haves. ASU will have the convienence of starting their ace again since he only threw 50 pitches in game one, and he has had three days rest. Urquidez can shut down any team on any given day. Kroenke threw 0.2 IP against ASU in game one, he gave up 1 hit and had 1 K. Besides that he hasn't pitched extended innings in over two weeks, and rust could be a factor as he settles in.
Nebraska's Advantage
Obviously, we are all aware now that Nebraska has the home crowd advantage. And regardless of Kroenke's fastball-pitching style, he still holds a major left-on-left matchup over ASU's lefthanded lineup. Nebraska's pen is deep, and they have plenty of guys to run out there if Kroenke is off. Although Nebraska isn't that good of a hitting team, I liked some things I saw from their bats vs. Florida, and I'm still convinced they are the better team in this matchup.
Bottom Line
Bottom line is Nebraska is the better team no matter how much you want to try to root for those scrappy underdogs of ASU. But this line dictates a value play on the other side. Is the line worth -240 and dropping that kind of chalk? No, this is an inflated line based on the public getting caught up in the "sea of red" nonsense; especially with the announced starters of ace vs. #3. Nebraska's disappoint to be in the loser's bracket, coupled with ASU's newfound confidence after knocking out the Vols and them starting their ace makes them a potential live dog at a very nice price.
My Line
Nebraska -140
Current Line
Nebraska -240
My Play
(1.5 unit) Arizona State +200
Nebraska is the better team, but this line is just too good to pass up. I don't recommend laying -240 against Urquidez. #1 starter vs. #3 starter. Disappointed Nebraska vs. enthusiastic scrappy ASU. IMO, either lay off this game or make a small play on the dog and take your 2:1 odds.
Best of luck.
k:
