SMOOTHY said:
i see your point - and you might be right
but with a line like this - nebraska has to win 9 out of 12 times to just make a slight profit whiel AS-what would only have to win 4 out of 12 to make a profit and i know if you add that up it comes out to 13 out of 12 times - so that means who will win that 1 extra game needed to make a profit - and that is what we will find out today
as i said - make this game -110 both ways odds are i am on the Steroid M0ngers - but at this price - the M0ngers aren't 2.5 times better than AS-what
SMOOTHY said:
No it's not safe. Never lay massive chalk against another team's ace.
Give me these two teams in a pick 'em and I'll take Nebraska.
But the odds don't match with the percentages of how many times Nebraska will win this game.
The poster after you kind of said it best.
I'll try to give you a terrible analogy of how I feel about this game.
There are 2 cars you want to buy. A $50,000 Cadillac Escalade or a $25,000 Ford Explorer (Nebraska or ASU). The Cadillac looks pretty on the outside, and you know you'll pick up chicks. You gotta dish out some money on it(-200), but you're scared it has the potential to stall and break down on you, and sit in your garage and you might have spent all that money on nothing. But if it doesn't breakdown and it's clicking on all cylinders, man I want that Cadillac.
The Explorer is cheaper and old steady and reliable. It might not dazzle you, and pick up chicks, but it might be there for you in the end and its cheaper(ASU).
Point I guess is this...
If you got the money, and you don't mind laying massive chalk on a constant basis, you probably got the winning ticket. But to lay -200 plus on Nebraska, this game is no way that kind of a guarantee. ASU's got their ace going and thats reason enough for me to give ASU a shot at that price. Nebraska is the easy, obvious choice on the surface.
Just for the sake of example, Gotti has a different betting style. He lays massive chalk on a daily basis, whether it be the Red Sox at -190, Yankees -190, Nebraska the other day at -200 plus, and Nebraska again today at -200 plus. That's not right and that's not wrong. It's just his betting style. And with the amount of winners he posts, it works great for him. But he has that constant pressure for his heavy chalky favorites to always win. Obviously he doesnt mind.
If you lay -200 plus on Nebraska today you have to win 3 of 4 of these types of games in order to make a 1 unit profit. Look...
Game 1: -200 W (+100)
Game 2: -200 W (+100)
Game 3: -200 L (-200)
______________________
Went 2-1 and you're EVEN.
Now if you laid -200 plus on Nebraska the other day like Gotti and LOST on them to the Gators...AND you lose today, you're in deep crap, and the books are smiling. Because now you are down $-400, and you need to reel off 5 victories at the same prices to get your money back. (Not picking on you Shawn, thank you for your lock-posts)
Nebraska is the favorite, simply because they are the better team with a crowd behind them. But this line clearly does not factor in ASU throwing their ace, and Nebraska throwing their #3.
I'll sit back and leave a measley 1.5 units on ASU's ace, and not even sweat this game out because if I lose 1.5 units no big deal. But to win 3+ is kind of nice. I'm not going to risk 4 and sweat it out, just so I can see a 2 unit return. This game is not a lock for Nebraska. Always fade the public.
By the way with the -230 line, if you go 2-1 --you LOSE money. So chalk at -190 is one thing, you can go 2-1 and still secure a small profit. Once it gets to -200 you are talking about breaking even. And once it goes above -200 to -230, that is very dangerous, because now you are talking about going 2-1 and losing money.
It just doesnt add up to lay this kind of chalk against an ace. Sorry.
Sometimes laying off of a game is just as good as winning.
If you really like Nebraska in this game, don't bet it.
It just doesnt add up to lay this kind of chalk against an ace. Sorry.
Sometimes laying off of a game is just as good as winning.
If you really like Nebraska in this game, don't bet it.
First - Let it be known I am a Baylor Fan through and through
I am a firm beliver in Coach Smith
A fact Since the formation of the Big 12 Baylor has won more Big Twelve games than any other team in there - Texas a close second.
Now something of value - Have watched this Van Allen kid pitch for two years
and have never seen him in awe of anyone. He will compete and I personally think he will pitch a complete game today and win it.
Above for information only and not to be used for any illegal activity as they say.
I am a firm beliver in Coach Smith
A fact Since the formation of the Big 12 Baylor has won more Big Twelve games than any other team in there - Texas a close second.
Now something of value - Have watched this Van Allen kid pitch for two years
and have never seen him in awe of anyone. He will compete and I personally think he will pitch a complete game today and win it.
Above for information only and not to be used for any illegal activity as they say.
