College football early lines

[badwater]

Yeah, I initially had Tech favored by 4,

but shaded it up to 5 1/2 in favor of the New Year's Day Bowl, Big 12 squad. Four and a half and 5 1/2 are not a whole different in terms of probability of final margin.

However, it looks like my "generous" number may have spurred one-way action on the Miners (at least from this small sample of sharps) which may leave the book vulnerable.

Thanks for the feedback guys,
Paul

 

[AlwaysKeen]

good thought on this one guys...I've learned not to bet Tech in the first month over the years (had them at New Mexico a couple of years ago as well)...UTEP has got to be a little better, I just don't like the way they quit in the bowl game and Palmer's lack of arm strength really frustrates me...UTEP would be the only side I'd consider in this one however...

 

[Insiders]

but shaded it up to 5 1/2 in favor of the New Year's Day Bowl, Big 12 squad. Four and a half and 5 1/2 are not a whole different in terms of probability of final margin.

However, it looks like my "generous" number may have spurred one-way action on the Miners (at least from this small sample of sharps) which may leave the book vulnerable.

Thanks for the feedback guys,
Paul

With the 2 point conversion Every number is alive. I have noticed in my lifetime that road chalks that come 4 and the public drives to 5.5 seem to fall close a lot more than one might think. i won a huge bet once by the number on a road chalk comeing 4 and then driven to 6. The game fell 4 21-17 right on the opener. So every time i see a raod chalk of 4 or more, i have to have a second peek at that one. JMHO

 

[AlwaysKeen]

interesting stuff insiders...I won't bet a dog at +5.5 until the last minute...I'll wait to see if it goes to 6, 6.5 or even 7 or if it starts going down to 4.5 I'll bet a little then...like I said, I think the oddsmakers purposely set numbers like this on game sometimes...I've just taken too many +6 point dogs in college only to lose by a TD...like +8 to me is a more important number than say +10...the FG isn't as big in the college game...+14 is key too...

 

[Mr.Smith]

badwater,

what would your o/u be on Miami-FSU?

 

[CoachLT]

Go Sooners

Very well said. You seem to have a way about your writeings that just seem to make a lot more sense that mine !!

Okay back to the game. I have to agree with many things that ALL of you had to say about this game, first off.
I myslef have learned that GoSooners has something about the "NEXT" game on the revenge road, and i will use that to my advantage when the time is right also.
But i look for teams that are Capable of dishing out the revenge first off.
The Sooners are in that department this year, or at least i think they are.
No matter what anyone says Stoops wants to beat this team, and the coach also.
I hope that we can remember this when game time comes around. And heres one more thing about "that" game, whatever the linemaker installs the number on sunday night, it will do nothing but go UP UP and away.
The public well pounce on "this" number as fast as they can, so in other words if a person buys Way to much an wants off of part of it latter in the week, a very good middle could open up, if the game falls close. This is why i have an account at Cris cause they are usually the First up.

Coach LT with his rubberband games i noticed that the number in ALL but one went in his favor, but he didnt need the best number in ALL but one of those games last year, also.

Insiders, the only game that went against us was the last game with Tulsa. They went from +7 to +8. That caused me to hedge 1/3 of the play. Did not need the points as Tulsa won straight up. Of the 5 games we had 2 dogs that won straight up and 3 favorites that went 2-1 with Wisconsin-21/2 blowing a 10 point lead and lost 20-10. I am getting the shakes. Please hurry, CFB!

 

[GoSooners]

That Tulsa-Fresno game was one of those games where you didn't know which Fresno team was going to show up. I don't think anybody could get the USC-Fresno game out of their minds and how they could possibly lose to Tulsa after they took the Trojans down to the wire. That was a good example of a team who had shot their wad and couldn't reload.
Insiders...I like your spread theory. Be sure to refresh us with it when the season starts.

 

[Conan]

Insiders, the only game that went against us was the last game with Tulsa. They went from +7 to +8. That caused me to hedge 1/3 of the play. Did not need the points as Tulsa won straight up. Of the 5 games we had 2 dogs that won straight up and 3 favorites that went 2-1 with Wisconsin-21/2 blowing a 10 point lead and lost 20-10. I am getting the shakes. Please hurry, CFB!

Coach,

Of all the games to mention here. Maybe because Fresno is in my backyard, maybe because I have been watching Pat Hill go down hill or (more specifically) when and how that happens. I just happened to clean up on this one. USC wore them down to nothing, emotionally, physically, but then again in thier eyes, the USC game was going to make or brake Fresno's whole season. Tulsa and Nevada, LA Tech too played them at just the right time.

Pat Hill is at it again this year. Look at their OOC games. He wants national attention way more than he does a WAC title. You can expect more let downs again. They will come out soft when you least expect it.

 

[Insiders]

interesting stuff insiders...I won't bet a dog at +5.5 until the last minute...I'll wait to see if it goes to 6, 6.5 or even 7 or if it starts going down to 4.5 I'll bet a little then...like I said, I think the oddsmakers purposely set numbers like this on game sometimes...I've just taken too many +6 point dogs in college only to lose by a TD...like +8 to me is a more important number than say +10...the FG isn't as big in the college game...+14 is key too...

pags

With overtime now in the college football, and the force going for 2 in the 3rd ot. 3.5 and 5.5 are almost the same. But there is something about the road chalk opening 5.5 for me. Most of the time when the Wiseguys see's this they take the +. I understand the value to ALL of these numbers. Here in Phoenix we have a guy that deal football with NO juice. If the number is 5.5 you get the dog +5 No juice, now the favorite has to lay 6 but No juice there either. You cant believe the numbers i get sometimes with No VIG....Also he moves according to his action and Not the screen. Sometimes thats why i say that i have stolen a GREAT number in some spots. The guy has a HUGE bizz and Lots of chalk eaters too. So he sometimes inflates Big games to lean to the Chalk, so i get the Doggie at a Steal of a price with NO VIG. SWEET....sometimes!

 

[Insiders]

Insiders, the only game that went against us was the last game with Tulsa. They went from +7 to +8. That caused me to hedge 1/3 of the play. Did not need the points as Tulsa won straight up. Of the 5 games we had 2 dogs that won straight up and 3 favorites that went 2-1 with Wisconsin-21/2 blowing a 10 point lead and lost 20-10. I am getting the shakes. Please hurry, CFB!

How well i know, i remember ALL of your rubberband games as they just WIN is ALL. I must have remembered quite well to have made that statement as many weeks i would see that opener of your rubberband games just keep on keepin on in our favor too. Your are dead right about the Tulsa thing last yeat too, but like i mentioned we really didnt need ANY points there.

 

[badwater]

Miami-Florida State total

Florida State lost a ton of top-shelf defensive talent in the NFL Draft, but these two schools year-in and year-out are going to have the athletes to play great defense.

On the other side of the ball, both schools struggled immensely on offense last year. Neither has a home-run threat on the edge; neither has a QB who can hurt you with his legs; and the running game of both has dipped incredibly.

Most of us on this board probably have vivid memories of last year's FSU-Miami "offensive struggle" on Labor Day night. The bookmaker has surely not forgotten either. However, both FSU's Weatherford and Miami's Wright should show lots of improvement this season in their second year as starters.

This total IMO belongs in the 35-to-38 range.

I'll call it 37.

Good luck,
Paul

 

[AlwaysKeen]

insiders, I understand what you are saying about the two point conversion factored in...I'll either take a dog at +3.5, +4 or +7...unless the game closes on a number in between I wait it out to see which way it goes if it's at 5...I

 

[badwater]

I had to smile when I saw some old friends tooting

the horn of their old beloved team again this summer. Oh, the optimism of July...

Last year in May, I made Notre Dame minus 7 over Penn State and sort of got called out on the board by the PSU Alumni CLub.

FWIW, take a look at these lines made for 2006 games in May of last year. They speak for themselves.

BTW, Penn State is a 6 1/2-point favorite over Notre Dame this time around. What a difference a year makes.

Good luck this season,
Paul

 

[Conan]

BW,

One post in here is something you should know about and I'd like to see more like that one. Check out GoSooner's post #55 in this thread. I'd like to see more people do a little work on the side in their own conferences and come up with situations like those he mentions.

So anyone who's up to it please feel free to add or make a new thread.

 

[GoSooners]

I was initially looking at Texas as a 2 1/2 or 3 point favorite over Ohio State, but felt strongly that the public would have a strong bias towards the Buckeyes due to the Longhorns' total lack of experience at QB.

I'm thinking now that Texas minus 2 1/2 points is a better number.

Paul

Badwater..You're a prophet..You said Texas would be a 2 1/2 point favorite over OSU and it ended up 2. I'll also give you credit for picking the Texas Tech-OU game the closest at OU -13. But it is amazing how the circumstances can change between spring and fall. Who new OU would be without Bomar and Peterson by the time they got to Tech? Taking the preseason pointspreads on the OU opponents would have paid dividends if we had just known. OU was actually huge favorites in the preseason over their first two opponents. And slight favorites over Oregon. With Bomar out of the picture they failed to cover their first two games and thanks to the 12th man got Ducked and lost outright at Oregon. If I remember right, OU was also favored by something like 6 points over Texas in preseason. And the day Bomar got thrown off the team that number took about a 10 point swing the other way. It amazes me how much value the books put on a QB. And I know we talked quite a bit here about the Texas Tech-OU game and the revenge factor. But by the time these two teams met OU was without both Peterson and Bomar. And OU went from being over 20 point preseason favorites to just being favored by 9. And they ended up winning by 10..Shew. It just goes to show you how things can change. Especially when your making or taking early bets on games played at midseason or after. It's a dicey proposition at best.