College football early lines

[badwater]

If anybody wants me to offer a line on an early season college football game (say the first three weeks of the season), I would be glad to put one up.

My lines have historically been solid and typically close to the actual number.

If you have a game, I'll throw my number out there for all therx world to see, critique and examine.

Good luck to all,
Paul

 

[Insiders]

Would be more than glad to take a look at the card.

After reading again, i now understand.
I would most be interested in the Oklahoma Oregon game and the USC Arkansas match -ups
How can i make a play to any of these?

 

[UoweDucks]

Oasis had some early lines put up last summer. Thinking it was June. Some of them were WAY off and could have been taken advantage of. They had only a $250 limit. I will fund an account at Oasis this year if they offer something similiar...

 

[badwater]

Oklahoma/Oregon and USC/Arkansas lines

In other threads, I have previously offered my early numbers on these games. I'm altering the former number by a 1/2 point.

Here they are:

at Oregon 2 1/2 Oklahoma
USC 10 1/2 at Arkansas

Oasis must have had the "cabana boy" making numbers for them last summer. It was obviously more for the "publicity" than anything else, hence the $200 limit.

Still, I got a chuckle out of Florida being initially listed a 7-point favorite over Wyoming IN GAINESVILLE!! (The linemaker must been intoxicated by the Cowboys' pre-Christmas bowl win over UCLA the previous year).

I am simply offering these as an idea of where I believe the line should be. We'll revisit these when the "real" lines come out to check the strength of my numbers.

Good luck,
Paul

 

[GoSooners]

Badwater...Both of your lines look pretty close. I had USC -10. Of course the OU-Oregon number could change a little since both teams play two games before they face each other. But at this point I would make Oregon the favorite based only on the home field advantage.

 

[CollegeKingRex]

Was thinking they'll make Southern Cal closer to 13 but that's not a far cry from 10.5... and if all holds to form, it will be tough for Oregon to be favored even if they are at home against OU.

 

[Conan]

Put a gun to my head and make me pick one of those games and I'd be on USC ONLY AND ONLY because I don't think the Razorbacks can put together a respectable offense to keep up with USC's ramped up D. I have a lot more faith in a (USC) offense that hasn't yet taken the field for a single snap and doesn't have a first string RB yet than one that doesn't look like it has much hope to get their act together, especially vs a supposed class defense. I'd probably buy off that hook just the same.

But, I hope the pistola is loaded with blanks anyway. Tough calls both of them. The lines are good ones.

 

[TTinCO]

How about Neb-USC?

 

[Conan]

I don't think I could possibly predict a line (Neb. @ USC) for that game at this point. First home game of the year for the Trojans and probably the marquee game of the week. USC is very tough at home. I also think a look at W1 would help a lot. But put a gun to my head today I'd put it at around 7 1/2 - 8 assuming the first game played out close to the 10 1/2 spread predicted.

 

[GoSooners]

I think if USC covers the line against Arkansas that they will be at least a 12 point or more favorite against Nebraska.

 

[GoSooners]

But let me add that if the USC-Ark. game turns out to be something like a 17-7 game that the linesmakers could set the Nebraska line lower to something like the 9 or 10 point range in anticipating another low scoring contest.

 

[Conan]

That would confuse me if the score was low in the Arkansas game. I'd also have to look at Neb. in their first game too to get an idea on what they were capable of. Higher expectations for their offense than Arkansas for sure but how good is USC's defense and of course, how well will their offense gel? Only 17 pts. may mean an explosion in week 2 or a poorly tuned offense that needs more work. That seems less likely to me because of the ability they have at the skilled positions. I still like the idea of expecting a lower scoring game out of the chute in W1. Beyond that, anything's seems possible to me at this stage.

Lucky for USC they have a pretty favorable schedule with most of their key games played at home this season. I wonder though how much impact the HFA will have in the beginning of the year scoringwise like it did last season.

 

[GoSooners]

Whether they cover or not I think the Arkansas game will be a good expierence for those new USC players. Coming home they should have a little more confidence in their system. But their going to face a defense that will probably be better than Arkansas's. Also Nebraska runs a form of the west coast offense themselves and I doubt USC will be able to throw too much more stuff at them than they haven't already seen from their own offense. With the QB under center USC really needs to keep an eye on the Nebraska linebackers. They have the best blitzing defense in the Big 12, and unless you can buy some time back there they will eventually get to you. They gave Michigan fits in their bowl game. And they had a very good offensive line. OU was the only team last year that was able to pretty much keep them in check. But they did get to Bomar a couple times despite being in the shotgun. Nebraska is a very dangerous team for USC. Even more so I believe than Arkansas despite the game being played at USC. You know the old saying, "good defenses travel well". Especially early in the year. So we'll just have to see about the line. But if they give Nebraska double digits on the spread...well their history is a lot like OU's, you have to look at them very closely when they're the heavy dogs. Especially when I anticipate Nebraska having a top 10, possibly top 5 defense.

 

[CollegeKingRex]

USC should be favored between 10.5-12.5 if they were to line up and run out there tomorrow... everyone here with good points on the game....

 

[gopherbob]

what do you think the line will be for the minnesota @ california in early sept ?

 

[AlwaysKeen]

here's what I'm thinking:

USC -12.5 to 14.5 at Arkansas
Oregon -2.5 vs. OU
Cal +6.5 at Tennessee
Wash. St. +11.5 at Auburn (this one interests me as I think Wazuu can keep up with these guys for three quarters or so)

week 2
USC -17 vs. Nebraska
ASU -18.5 vs. Nevada

 

[Conan]

what do you think the line will be for the minnesota @ california in early sept ?

That's an interesting matchup I think mostly because at this time we can only speculate on Cal's development. I think it's safe to say that Cal will "mirror" USC but (of course) with more experience in the backfield. Nonetheless their biggest question is their offense. Lynch and Forsette were there last season too but I never felt that they had it all together as expected. They still managed to rank OK but honestly many people expected better. Blame it all on Ayoob if you must but he was chased around and pressured into making too many bad decisions just the same. Still, it all boiled down to having a competant QB in charge and for whatever reasons, they didn't.

So Tedford goes out and hires a B10 OC who brings with him the spread. Then everyone goes to visit Rich Rodriguez at WVA for some lessons. They way I see this is like someone who dumps fresh meat into a beef stew that's nearly finished. In a way, I have to agree with that move. If there was anything you can criticize about Cal's offense last year (aside from Ayoob) is that it was too predictable. So it's a situation where you have a tricky job maintaining balance on the team between old style set offenses vs newer spread formations. I think it will work out and it won't take too long to happen.

In this spot, I'm sure their new OC (Dunbar from NW) will already have plenty of tricks in his pocket to deal with the Gophers. I think Cal will score and score fairly well on that account. Can't say the same about Minnesota but then again, I haven't studied their offense. I'd lay 6 sight unseen. But that may be wishful thinking.

 

[badwater]

Minnesota-Cal/etc

I would make Cal a 8 1/2-point favorite in this non-conference matchup.

In agreement with Pags' number on Nebraska-USC. I would probably, however, make it a little lower, say 15 1/2 to give me wiggle room to move down to 14 or up to 17.

Good luck,
Paul

 

[AlwaysKeen]

I think the Cal line will depend on how they play vs. Tennesse...anywhere from 6.5 to 8.5 at this point...

 

[Insiders]

badwater

So these are your "opinions" on what the line will be? right?

I think you are fairly close, but i think that Oklahoma and Oregon game comes Pick! I rather doubt that Oregon will be the chalk there when the numbers pops or goes off. Matter of fact i would really like to have the Sooners + 2.5 Right now !

USC IMO looks a little short. As i Really dont think the Hogs will have much on the offensive side of the ball. I am a FAN of the home doggies for sure, but i would have to have more there than 10.5 for sure.