Well I think the more these games get picked apart the better chance all the guys will end up with numbers that COULD be a whole lot better than the posted lines when the time comes. I'd hesitate though to jump on many REALLY EARLY lines because hell, it's not even time for fall practice and a lot of rosters won't be known until then. Still, I think this could lead to (if we are so lucky) a few opportunities, a few good angles and maybe some wins. It will be getting close to the time to whip out some team and situational trends and September records.
I like situational trends. That's why I'm hestitant to have a strong opinion on anything right now. As for the Big 12 trends, we've only got one new coach in the Big 12 with Dan Hawkins at Colorado and Gundy at OSU is in his second year. So all of these other coaches have faced each other at one time or another so the trends and general philosophies of the coaches and teams should be fairly strong this next season in the Big 12. I especially like trends from coaching philosophies like for example Bob Stoops vs Mike Leach. Leach has never been successful against Stoops because of the kind of dink and dunk offense Tech uses don't work well against teams with good linebacker speed as in OU. Of course Tech broke that string last year in the game they won. At least on the scoreboard. But it was hard for OU to beat Tech's 12th man that day with the refs. Stoops also was money in the bank against Mack Brown until last season. Things are much cloudier now that Brown has added some key players with brains on to his coaching staff. So that series is more than likely destined to come back to Texas to a small extent in the next few years under these same two coaches. Although they may not be the the law of the land, trends and philosphies are an important part of college football. I'm looking forward to studying up on them for this next season.
I still can't understand why these two schools continue to play each other in the first game of the year. Does a primetime television contract really mean that much to them? Why not play the game in the third or 4th week of the season when these teams are at their true strength after playing a couple non conference games. I would think a New Years Day bowl game would mean more to these two schools money and prestige wise than a very early season tilt where more than likely the loser stays home.badwater said:
By the way I would make Miami a 3 point fave. Is it ever any more than that between those two schools? That early in the year and with the close games they've had in the past I almost always take the dog in that game. Especially if I can get 3 or more.
The "fools" will be giving you in the neighborhood
of a touchdown.
Although lacking big-time speed and playmakers on the defense, Notre Dame will have one of the nation's top contingent of skill position players on offense this season. The ability to score points is weighed even more heavily in my process of making lines the first two or three weeks of the season. Some teams just spit and sputter out of the gate, especially if they have new faces on the OL or at QB.
PSU is replacing a playmaker (Robinson) at QB with _ despite all the hype surrounding the recruitment of Anthony Morelli _ a lead-footed, unproven commodity.
Today, I would have Notre Dame laying 6 1/2, although 7 might be more like it.
I'm probably in the minority, but I typically shy away from betting on my alma mater and, instead, try to find opportunities to play AGAINST it.
Good luck,
Paul
of a touchdown.
Although lacking big-time speed and playmakers on the defense, Notre Dame will have one of the nation's top contingent of skill position players on offense this season. The ability to score points is weighed even more heavily in my process of making lines the first two or three weeks of the season. Some teams just spit and sputter out of the gate, especially if they have new faces on the OL or at QB.
PSU is replacing a playmaker (Robinson) at QB with _ despite all the hype surrounding the recruitment of Anthony Morelli _ a lead-footed, unproven commodity.
Today, I would have Notre Dame laying 6 1/2, although 7 might be more like it.
I'm probably in the minority, but I typically shy away from betting on my alma mater and, instead, try to find opportunities to play AGAINST it.
Good luck,
Paul
lead footed...morelli
he may not be as mobile as robinson... but he is nowhere near leadfooted.... he can move in and out of the pocket, you wont see him running the option alot but when needed he will get yards on the ground
i dont usually bet on psu either, one thing that is worse then a psu loss to me is when i have money on them too...
last year i knew the team very very well... i told everyone that they would beat ohio state straight up.... last year i ended up betting every game after the northwestern game and the only one i lost was the money line at michigan, but i won money on the game taking psu +3
i ONLY take the lions when i feel very very very confident in the ability to cover.....
and i will tellyou right now... if nd is giving psu 7..... take psu and it will be :money8::money8::money8::money8: in you pocket..
nd is probably the most overrated football program in college football.....hands down
what is it... 9 bowl games in a row they have lost???
he may not be as mobile as robinson... but he is nowhere near leadfooted.... he can move in and out of the pocket, you wont see him running the option alot but when needed he will get yards on the ground
i dont usually bet on psu either, one thing that is worse then a psu loss to me is when i have money on them too...
last year i knew the team very very well... i told everyone that they would beat ohio state straight up.... last year i ended up betting every game after the northwestern game and the only one i lost was the money line at michigan, but i won money on the game taking psu +3
i ONLY take the lions when i feel very very very confident in the ability to cover.....
and i will tellyou right now... if nd is giving psu 7..... take psu and it will be :money8::money8::money8::money8: in you pocket..
nd is probably the most overrated football program in college football.....hands down
what is it... 9 bowl games in a row they have lost???
We'll see about that. They've got a coach with some balls now and from what I can tell about their recruiting class, they will also have some speed. I do believe that TV makes a whole lot of money on ND. Probably $1,000,000 per hyped up story at least. Still, I have respect for their coach. Maybe they will actually own up to the hype they've benefitted from for years. I wouldn't stake my $$$ on any of it though. Show me first.
Ohio State-Texas line on Sept. 9
Both teams have substantial question marks _ Texas obviously at QB and Ohio State with an entirely defensive back seven.
Ohio State has the experience at QB and throughout the skill positions, but Texas RARELY gets points at home.
We'll let the player make the call.
at Texas Pk Ohio State
Good luck,
Paul
Both teams have substantial question marks _ Texas obviously at QB and Ohio State with an entirely defensive back seven.
Ohio State has the experience at QB and throughout the skill positions, but Texas RARELY gets points at home.
We'll let the player make the call.
at Texas Pk Ohio State
Good luck,
Paul
Definitely have my eye on that UGA-SC game
With Georgia's new QB (Joe T.) making his first road start, this one shapes up as an interesting matchup.
South Carolina is obviously hurt by early defections of standout DBs Simpson and Joseph to the NFL, but with Mitchell back at QB and one of the nation's VERY top wide receivers _ long and lanky Sidney Rice _ back for his sophomore season, the Gamecocks should be better on offense.
All told, Georgia will be a 3-point favorite IMO.
I'll definitely be looking at SC in this spot.
Good luck,
Paul
With Georgia's new QB (Joe T.) making his first road start, this one shapes up as an interesting matchup.
South Carolina is obviously hurt by early defections of standout DBs Simpson and Joseph to the NFL, but with Mitchell back at QB and one of the nation's VERY top wide receivers _ long and lanky Sidney Rice _ back for his sophomore season, the Gamecocks should be better on offense.
All told, Georgia will be a 3-point favorite IMO.
I'll definitely be looking at SC in this spot.
Good luck,
Paul
badwater said:
Nice to hear, I can see them being a 3-point favorite as well however I will be taking the Carolina Moneyline... Though I consider myself biased on this specific game, i never bet on the unpredictable gamecocks (my school), however this is the year we finally close the game out and finish them off. The last 2 years have been heart breakers to them, as long as the defense demonstrates it has some ability to stop the run I see Carolina finally coming out on top here, although it is going to be one hell of a battle..
Texas-Ohio State revisited
I was initially looking at Texas as a 2 1/2 or 3 point favorite over Ohio State, but felt strongly that the public would have a strong bias towards the Buckeyes due to the Longhorns' total lack of experience at QB.
I'm thinking now that Texas minus 2 1/2 points is a better number.
Paul
I was initially looking at Texas as a 2 1/2 or 3 point favorite over Ohio State, but felt strongly that the public would have a strong bias towards the Buckeyes due to the Longhorns' total lack of experience at QB.
I'm thinking now that Texas minus 2 1/2 points is a better number.
Paul
first off, I was really bothered by my comment about looking hard at the 'Cocks...I don't know why the fuck I wrote it like that, but I just want to clarify that I do like women...now that I've said that...
I just think there will be too much Texas money coming in if they don't make Texas at least a 3.5 fav...I sometime think books put a 5 or 5.5 up and see which way the public will take it (down to three or up to 7)...5 is a good number to get a lot of action on both sides on...these two teams are about even (maybe slight edge in talent to Texas), coaching is about even...I know you'd think that mean a three point line, but I just don't see it being that low...
I just think there will be too much Texas money coming in if they don't make Texas at least a 3.5 fav...I sometime think books put a 5 or 5.5 up and see which way the public will take it (down to three or up to 7)...5 is a good number to get a lot of action on both sides on...these two teams are about even (maybe slight edge in talent to Texas), coaching is about even...I know you'd think that mean a three point line, but I just don't see it being that low...
