College Baseball Sunday Lock of the Millenium!

[Boxslayer]

By the way this isnt the college world series. This is regional play. This is the road to the college world series. Teams get automatic bids in the 4 seed from very small conferences that win their regular season title or end of season tournament if they have one. These schools are still entirely overmatched, out of their league, low on post-season experience, low on big game experience, low on big crowd environment experience, and extremely low on pitching depth.

In the regular season, in these mid-week games where LSU throws their #5 vs. NW States #1, even LSU wins those games 75% of the time.

But when you take a small school and make them go 2 deep, much less 3 or 4 deep into their rotation, they're in trouble. LSU however suffers very little dropoff. It's a level playing field now and its postseason time. In this situation its 99 out of 100.

 

[antipublic]

what are we at, 1-1? What is the best site for NCAA scores?

 

[Boxslayer]

1-1 game both teams scored their runs in the 2nd.

This pitcher is deep in the rotation for NWState, and he's a typical small school late in the rotation guy. He cant throw strikes, hes walking people and hes gotten lucky with some inning ending double plays thus far.

LSU batting, base hit in the bottom of the 3rd with 2 outs and Clay Harris up. 'll start a thread for the game.

 

[Rawpimple]

2 innings and NW La. pitcher already has 4 walks.

Thats exactly the situation, if this were a mid-week game I would never lay the chalk. This is TOURNAMENT TIME and you lose, you are eliminated. These smaller schools tend to tighten up when they play in these elimination tourneys.

A perfect example was yesterdays Clemson vs C of C game. Clemson in my mind was as easy money as they come. If you looked at the stats of C of C they were the top rated team as far as batting average goes in the NATION. They also had a very good record something like 37-13 to Clemsons 37-21. C of C played no one during the entire year and lack talent and depth. When they did play someone decent, they lost. They are playing on the road against a powerhouse. 6-0 was the final. So much for the top team for average in the nation.

 

[ClipJoint]

I agree with everything you said again, but with LSU's offense, they can't beat anyone 99% of the time.

Although I couldn't muster up the balls to take NW State, there is no way I could lay that chalk on LSU.

I've said it before 100 times, but being a fan and being a handicapper rarely work well together. Handicapping is much more of a numbers game than knowing the teams inside and out. I learned that early in my handicapping life simply because I follow the game way too close as a fan. I still do...but I refrain from putting my money on teams/conferences I follow closely as a fan.

Good luck today...you obviously know college baseball and the SEC well.

 

[Boxslayer]

Let me ask you a question.

How many LSU baseball games have you seen this year?

 

[Boxslayer]

I'm not a fan of LSU, I hate LSU.

 

[Boxslayer]

2 updates on the dogs I posted.


Notre Dame (+207) leads 2-0 in the 4th.

NC State (+128) is tied 4-4.

 

[winkyduck]

as far as laying -260 - or there abouts

in MLB - i would NEVER consider it - for we are talking about major leaguers - and while some teams are better than others - for the most part anything can happen

HOWEVER

in college - laying -260 isn't something i would back away from entirely. the fact is there IS a HUGE disparity in talent between some schools and in some cases - laying -260 is actually cheap

as for fullerton/missouri - yes - fullerton should win - and if we do - mark my words - we take down Zona tonite, too. but the fact is also andy lopez is a DAMN GREAT coach. he takes programs that are struggling and gets them to Omaha. last night he coached the pants off George Horton at Fullerton and made him look foolish. that is not an insult to Horton but rather showing just how brilliant Lopez is. you might beat his team - but rest assured - you will have to spend all 9 innings of energy in doing so.

 

[Boxslayer]

as far as laying -260 - or there abouts

in MLB - i would NEVER consider it - for we are talking about major leaguers - and while some teams are better than others - for the most part anything can happen

HOWEVER

in college - laying -260 isn't something i would back away from entirely. the fact is there IS a HUGE disparity in talent between some schools and in some cases - laying -260 is actually cheap

as for fullerton/missouri - yes - fullerton should win - and if we do - mark my words - we take down Zona tonite, too. but the fact is also andy lopez is a DAMN GREAT coach. he takes programs that are struggling and gets them to Omaha. last night he coached the pants off George Horton at Fullerton and made him look foolish. that is not an insult to Horton but rather showing just how brilliant Lopez is. you might beat his team - but rest assured - you will have to spend all 9 innings of energy in doing so.

Exactly. In MLB I don't lay anything over -160 for the most part. The most chalk in MLB i Laid was -180 on Clemens this year and even that was a mistake.

-260 on these games is just absolutely ridiculous to me. No run line even. It should be CSF -2 -260 is a bit more what the line should be.

CSF ML should be -500 at least.