Clip Joint said:
I agree with most of what you said, but the odds of winning are highly inflated. If a team like LSU could beat NW State 99 out of 100, why have they lost 20 games on the season? It is because any team can lose on any given day in baseball, regardless of the level. These are all quality teams now in the World Series, and LSU lost 20 games during the regular season. While they are the superior team today (hence the -260 and up odds), 95% is very unrealistic. 95-5 if they played 100 games? They are 39-20 in a season that doesn't include all World Series caliber opponents.
NW State is one of the weaker teams in the field and there is probably more value here than any other heavy favorite. They were 21-2 at home during the regular season and only 19-15 away from home. But LSU's offense is down this year and NW State lives on great defense and not giving opponents extra opportunities. Blake Jones could be the X Factor that keeps them in the game.
Odds makers do a great job of getting the public to play heavy favorites. While there may be value in eating heavy chalk, it doesn't happen very often.
I think they win today as well, but there are no games/matchups in the College World Series where a team would win 95% of the time...and at -260, 80% or higher will be the only way to make any real money on these heavy favorites.
Clip-
You know what you're talking about for capping.
But in terms of college baseball, you really are out of your element I'm thinking. Not an attack, maybe you just didnt think it through or you arent familiar with the sport? Let me explain.
LSU has lost 20 games this year because they play in the SEC. Every team is practically even with the exception of Kentucky. That accounts for most of their losses, but they arent playing a big name school today. They are playing an inferior opponent. Any time they lost to a lesser opponent during the season, which was probably 3 times or less, they 99% sure threw some freshman mid-week starter who's #5 in their rotation vs. the lesser opponents ace, in a meaningless mid-week game that was all-world for the lesser opponent, but didnt mean crap to LSU. LSU plays lesser opponents during the mid-week and they save their rotation for the weekend SEC play.
This is now the postseason, and LSU is throwing their #3 weekend starter vs. some small schools #3 starter. Most of these small schools make a living off of 1 recruit they got, and they ride him till the wheels fall off. They pitch their one ace pitcher against LSU while LSU throws some freshman they are trying to develop. That isnt the case here. Plus its the postseason, at LSU and LS is one of the most prolific postseason teams in NCAA history. Would I lay this chalk in a regular season game? Hell no. Actually in a winkyduck thread earlier this year he picked Cal State Fullerton or something in a mid-week game televised on ESPN against a smaller school and I told him to be careful because mid-week schools throw their ace vs the big schools #5. CSF made a run at the end and beat SD State in that game in extra innings or a very close game.
My point being, the postseason is entirely different than regular season play. You can't just look on the internet at stats from teams websites and make an analysis of a game or the sport.
Like I said, in terms of capping you are dead on as you always are. But in terms of college baseball, it's a whole different animal.
So to make a long story short, in THIS SITUATION LSU wins this game 99 times out of 100.
I hope this post didnt come off the wrong way. I've learned a few things from you, so dont think Im talking down to you. I just know college baseball, whereas I'm learning everything else.
