West April Forecast
March 30, 2017
Lots of agendas drive the final weeks of the regular season. Some teams have long resided in their tanks since coming out of the All-Star break while others are ramping up for when most eyes really start watching. Here are some notes to help determine who to ride or fade as playoff berths, seeds and draft lottery odds are all decided between now and April 12.
Dallas Mavericks: The Mavs will never quit on a season, so even though they suffered a tough loss in New Orleans on Wednesday that realistically ended their playoff hopes, look for them to push forward even when officially eliminated. They'll wrap up a five-game road trip on April 5 at the Clippers and close their home schedule against the Spurs and Nuggets, so they'll play a major role in the West playoff race. They'll visit Memphis twice and participate in a couple of back-to-backs where Rick Carlisle may find a night off for Dirk Nowitzki, but you'll see a well-coached team sharing the ball and defending down the stretch. That should make it awfully enticing to take points with Dallas playing spoiler as it misses the playoffs for only the second time since 2000. Recommendation: Ride
Denver Nuggets: Following victories in six of eight, the Nuggets have dropped two straight as they continue a five-game road trip in Charlotte on March 31. Any hope of making the playoffs will hinge on a group that hasn't fared well outside of Denver to do exactly that with the season on the line. They'll play a home-and-home against both the Pelicans and Thunder, teams that they're 1-3 against this season. That's not reassuring, though the lone win came in New Orleans to start the season and they had won four of five on the road before falling behind the Blazers by losing in Portland, so there's definitely room for optimism. After a rash of injuries, the Nuggets are finally healthy with Kenneth Faried back. Veteran Jameer Nelson has done a nice job in place of benched point guard Emmanuel Mudiay, so he'll give Denver a fighting chance. Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari, Faried, Mason Plumlee, Nelson and Gary Harris form a nice supporting cast around budding star center Nikola Jokic, so it will be interesting to see how much fight they all have. Recommendation: Fade cautiously
Golden State Warriors: After finding their range, both shooting it, and on the defensive end, they've proven they're the NBA's best team despite losing Kevin Durant. Since they're getting him back, the last few games are going to be about getting him re-acclimated and up to speed, which may lead to a few meaningless losses or win-no covers. By dominating a showdown in San Antonio on the second night of a road back-to-back that started in Houston, the Warriors reasserted their dominance and put themselves in line to coast to the No. 1 seed throughout the entire playoffs. With six of the last seven games coming at home, you'll be laying heavy points the rest of the way. Steve Kerr and last year's 73-win group recognize the importance of resting and handling these last few weeks cautiously, so keep in mind you'll be trusting an improving but inconsistent bench group more often. Recommendation: Fade cautiously
Houston Rockets: James Harden's left wrist looks like it will be a troublesome issue going forward. He's admitted feeling pain and not being able to follow through, but is relying on ice and treatment to keep him going. Unless any mandates come down from the front office or head coach Mike D'Antoni, his intent is to play. Patrick Beverley has talked about sitting out and resting as disrespecting the game. This sounds like they're backing themselves into a corner they really shouldn't get too comfortable in. Because they're going to be the No. 3 seed, it's not like they have anything left to play for but entering the playoffs as healthy as possible. Ryan Anderson, dealing with an ankle injury, can't come back until he's 100 percent. Harden deserves to go for the MVP, but not at the expense of the greater good. We'll see how things unfold. They've got one back-to-back left, so we'll see who trots out there that second night to play the Clippers on April 10. If they're going to play out the string, they'll finish strong. I expect them to find ways to strategically rest guys so that they miss as few games as possible but still avoid some of the grind. Recommendation: Ride cautiously
Los Angeles Clippers: After closing out March with a back-to-back, L.A. has one of the friendlier schedules over the final two weeks, playing at Staples in four of five, which is the fewest number of games left for any team in April. The Clips will definitely be motivated in the chase for a No. 4 seed that would give allow them to remain home even longer, providing an advantage entering a first-round series. Austin Rivers is dealing with a left hamstring issue and will certainly be out until it's completely healed. There's the requisite amount of time to rest and motivation to finish strong to make this group worth backing consistently. Recommendation: Ride
Los Angeles Lakers: They've been in tank mode, as they should be, since Magic Johnson took over. They need to finish with a top-three pick to keep it or risk losing it to Philadelphia thanks to no lottery protection. That means every game from here on out is basically a must-lose since they're stuck in a race with a Suns team also concentrating on developing youth and improving their chances to land the No. 1 selection in the deepest draft in years. Brandon Ingram has been sidelined by knee tendonitis and Nick Young could also end up being shelved the rest of the way. Luke Walton's team should lose almost exclusively despite playing out the string with five of seven at Staples, where smart Lakers fans should be cheering against them in any close games. Recommendation: Fade
Memphis Grizzlies: Barring a late flurry or a total collapse, the Griz are going to be the No. 7 seed in the West, which means they're going to play San Antonio. Would they rather play Houston? Considering Memphis has beaten the Rockets twice, they would certainly rather deal with them than the Spurs, but there's no guarantee they can catch anyone and reach No. 6. That means making sure Marc Gasol is 100 percent back from a nagging foot injury instead of risking him complicating matters takes priority. Although they close the season with four consecutive home games, they could be mathematically done in the chase to avoid the Spurs by the time an April 4 trip to San Antonio rolls around, which means David Fizdale may just rest everyone. Recommendation: Fade cautiously
Minnesota Timberwolves: Nuggets fans have to hope that Tom Thibodeau can keep his team engaged since they'll see the Trail Blazers twice over the first week in April. Snapping a six-game losing streak with a comeback win in Indiana on Tuesday was definitely a step in the right direction, but they got the benefit of a huge couple of calls down the stretch and could've very easily dropped another one. Back home Wednesday, they struggled with the Lakers before a sharper second half. They'll close with road games in five of six and have been inconsistent in both their energy level and execution, so you'll have to take this group's temperature daily. Their defense has largely disappeared, but Thibs has proven able to get that to change for stretches. Recommendation: Fade cautiously
New Orleans Pelicans: DeMarcus Cousins returned to the mix on Wednesday and looking forward to go out against his young former teammates with Sacramento in town to close March. There's basically no room for error as far as the playoffs go, but they do face Denver twice and end the season in Portland. Crazier things have happened but probably won't here. Obviously, New Orleans can still play spoiler due to its talent with Anthony Davis putting up video-game numbers. Solomon Hill and the recently acquired Jordan Crawford have been productive, so there are going to be nights where this team puts it together and inspires confidence that next season could be really fun. The Pels close with consecutive back-to-backs, albeit over the course of six nights. Recommendation: Ride cautiously
Oklahoma City Thunder: Rallying from 21 points down to win at Orlando on Wednesday prevented a loss as a road favorite for the second consecutive contest as Westbrook came to the rescue with the highest-scoring triple-double in NBA history. He'll win MVP if he earns it down the stretch, but that's no gimme. Despite his nightly heroics, he puts his team in positions where they're often stuck watching him work, so he'll have to better balance keeping them engaged and motivated with taking over. After a March 31 home date with the Spurs, the Hornets and Bucks come through town prior to a crucial four-game road trip that will determine how high they can climb, and whether Westbrook will ultimately end up getting the nod over Harden. He looks like he'll average a triple-double. Leading OKC to a top-five finish in the West would be quite the accomplishment given some of its injuries this season. There will be a pair of back-to-backs to fight through, but worrying about Westbrook running out of gas is wasted energy since that seems to impossible. The Thunder have won eight of 10 thanks to comeback wins over the Mavs and Magic, so maybe they'll continue finding ways to win. Recommendation: Ride cautiously
Phoenix Suns: Devin Booker isn't the only reason to watch this group, just the best one. Rookie point guard Tyler Ulis, dunk contest participant Derrick Jones, Jr. and a young frontcourt featuring TJ Warren, rookie Marquese Chriss, Alan Williams and center Alex Len will all get significant minutes, so expect the losing they've been doing to continue. Returning home from a six-game road trip to close with five of seven at home, Phoenix will still give fans reasons to pay attention while continuing to pad the ping-pong balls. The Suns may lose most or even all of their games, but if Booker can return from his ankle injury to give the young core an anchor, expect a few covers and potentially even an upset. Recommendation: Fade cautiously
Portland Trail Blazers: After winning Thursday's home date against the Rockets, the Blazers have emerged as the most successful team in the NBA in March. April could be just as lucrative as they try to finish out the regular season with a flourish to hang on to the No. 8 seed that they've successfully wrestled away from Denver. Five of the final seven games in the closing month will come at home, although there wil be a road back-to-back to deal with at Minnesota and Utah. They've gotten Evan Turner back from what was once thought to be a season-ending injury and have seen midseason acquisition Jusuf Nurkic become a force in the post, creating more breathing room for Dame Lillard and CJ McCollum to work. Portland is definitely rising to the occasion when it matters most. Recommendation: Ride
Sacramento Kings: The Kings are going to be playing the kids as often as possible from now on, so there will certainly be growing pains as guys gel. Willie Cauley-Stein and Skal Labissiere are going to play more with Kosta Koufos getting nights off. Another rookie big man, Giorgios Papagiannis, will get a longer look. Ben McLemore and Buddy Hield will get up shots. They might be able to sneak up on a team or two and do square off with the Lakers and Suns, but this group will be hard-pressed to avoid 50 losses for the seventh time in nine seasons. The under could be a consistent winner if continuity on the offensive end is hard to come by. Recommendation: Fade
San Antonio Spurs: It's nice to see this group whole and playing well with this little time left to kill before the fun begins, but the Warriors taking their defense apart in the second half of Wednesday's loss is a concern set to linger for the duration of their run this season. Elite offensive teams like the ones they'll have to get through will be able to take advantage of LaMarcus Aldridge, Pau Gasol and David Lee on the defensive end by making them move their feet. Gregg Popovich still has time to figure out matchups and rotations, so by no means should you write this group off, but they're not going to earn the West's No. 1 seed since Golden State padded its cushion. That means Pop can do some tinkering and rest guys in what will be two back-to-backs in a four-games-in-five-nights situation from April 4-8. The Spurs won't have to leave the state, but guys will take nights off. They won't lose their grip on the Southwest or the No. 2 seed, but there's no way to count on them going all out the rest of the way. Recommendation: Fade cautiously
Utah Jazz: The Jazz haven't won the Northwest since 2008, hadn't qualified for the postseason since '12 and haven't won a playoff game since 2010. That's why it wasn't a good sign to hear Rudy Gobert sniping about his team not competing like they should and some guys on the team being only concerned with scoring. Derrick Favors has been injured for much of the season due to a knee issue, so the Jazz are already without one of their key difference makers. Point guard George Hill has the most playoff experience due to his history with the Spurs and Pacers, but he's also been dealing with nagging injuries. Gordon Hayward escaped a major injury when a thigh contusion didn't wind up becoming the big deal it could've been, but defeating the DeMarcus Cousins-less Pelicans and the Sacramento Kids feels like a band-aid. We'll see how this group truly responds in games against the Wizards, a pair of home-and-homes with Portland and San Antonio and an April 10 trip into Oakland to face the Warriors. The Northwest isn't Utah's just yet. Recommendation: Fade
March 30, 2017
Lots of agendas drive the final weeks of the regular season. Some teams have long resided in their tanks since coming out of the All-Star break while others are ramping up for when most eyes really start watching. Here are some notes to help determine who to ride or fade as playoff berths, seeds and draft lottery odds are all decided between now and April 12.
Dallas Mavericks: The Mavs will never quit on a season, so even though they suffered a tough loss in New Orleans on Wednesday that realistically ended their playoff hopes, look for them to push forward even when officially eliminated. They'll wrap up a five-game road trip on April 5 at the Clippers and close their home schedule against the Spurs and Nuggets, so they'll play a major role in the West playoff race. They'll visit Memphis twice and participate in a couple of back-to-backs where Rick Carlisle may find a night off for Dirk Nowitzki, but you'll see a well-coached team sharing the ball and defending down the stretch. That should make it awfully enticing to take points with Dallas playing spoiler as it misses the playoffs for only the second time since 2000. Recommendation: Ride
Denver Nuggets: Following victories in six of eight, the Nuggets have dropped two straight as they continue a five-game road trip in Charlotte on March 31. Any hope of making the playoffs will hinge on a group that hasn't fared well outside of Denver to do exactly that with the season on the line. They'll play a home-and-home against both the Pelicans and Thunder, teams that they're 1-3 against this season. That's not reassuring, though the lone win came in New Orleans to start the season and they had won four of five on the road before falling behind the Blazers by losing in Portland, so there's definitely room for optimism. After a rash of injuries, the Nuggets are finally healthy with Kenneth Faried back. Veteran Jameer Nelson has done a nice job in place of benched point guard Emmanuel Mudiay, so he'll give Denver a fighting chance. Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari, Faried, Mason Plumlee, Nelson and Gary Harris form a nice supporting cast around budding star center Nikola Jokic, so it will be interesting to see how much fight they all have. Recommendation: Fade cautiously
Golden State Warriors: After finding their range, both shooting it, and on the defensive end, they've proven they're the NBA's best team despite losing Kevin Durant. Since they're getting him back, the last few games are going to be about getting him re-acclimated and up to speed, which may lead to a few meaningless losses or win-no covers. By dominating a showdown in San Antonio on the second night of a road back-to-back that started in Houston, the Warriors reasserted their dominance and put themselves in line to coast to the No. 1 seed throughout the entire playoffs. With six of the last seven games coming at home, you'll be laying heavy points the rest of the way. Steve Kerr and last year's 73-win group recognize the importance of resting and handling these last few weeks cautiously, so keep in mind you'll be trusting an improving but inconsistent bench group more often. Recommendation: Fade cautiously
Houston Rockets: James Harden's left wrist looks like it will be a troublesome issue going forward. He's admitted feeling pain and not being able to follow through, but is relying on ice and treatment to keep him going. Unless any mandates come down from the front office or head coach Mike D'Antoni, his intent is to play. Patrick Beverley has talked about sitting out and resting as disrespecting the game. This sounds like they're backing themselves into a corner they really shouldn't get too comfortable in. Because they're going to be the No. 3 seed, it's not like they have anything left to play for but entering the playoffs as healthy as possible. Ryan Anderson, dealing with an ankle injury, can't come back until he's 100 percent. Harden deserves to go for the MVP, but not at the expense of the greater good. We'll see how things unfold. They've got one back-to-back left, so we'll see who trots out there that second night to play the Clippers on April 10. If they're going to play out the string, they'll finish strong. I expect them to find ways to strategically rest guys so that they miss as few games as possible but still avoid some of the grind. Recommendation: Ride cautiously
Los Angeles Clippers: After closing out March with a back-to-back, L.A. has one of the friendlier schedules over the final two weeks, playing at Staples in four of five, which is the fewest number of games left for any team in April. The Clips will definitely be motivated in the chase for a No. 4 seed that would give allow them to remain home even longer, providing an advantage entering a first-round series. Austin Rivers is dealing with a left hamstring issue and will certainly be out until it's completely healed. There's the requisite amount of time to rest and motivation to finish strong to make this group worth backing consistently. Recommendation: Ride
Los Angeles Lakers: They've been in tank mode, as they should be, since Magic Johnson took over. They need to finish with a top-three pick to keep it or risk losing it to Philadelphia thanks to no lottery protection. That means every game from here on out is basically a must-lose since they're stuck in a race with a Suns team also concentrating on developing youth and improving their chances to land the No. 1 selection in the deepest draft in years. Brandon Ingram has been sidelined by knee tendonitis and Nick Young could also end up being shelved the rest of the way. Luke Walton's team should lose almost exclusively despite playing out the string with five of seven at Staples, where smart Lakers fans should be cheering against them in any close games. Recommendation: Fade
Memphis Grizzlies: Barring a late flurry or a total collapse, the Griz are going to be the No. 7 seed in the West, which means they're going to play San Antonio. Would they rather play Houston? Considering Memphis has beaten the Rockets twice, they would certainly rather deal with them than the Spurs, but there's no guarantee they can catch anyone and reach No. 6. That means making sure Marc Gasol is 100 percent back from a nagging foot injury instead of risking him complicating matters takes priority. Although they close the season with four consecutive home games, they could be mathematically done in the chase to avoid the Spurs by the time an April 4 trip to San Antonio rolls around, which means David Fizdale may just rest everyone. Recommendation: Fade cautiously
Minnesota Timberwolves: Nuggets fans have to hope that Tom Thibodeau can keep his team engaged since they'll see the Trail Blazers twice over the first week in April. Snapping a six-game losing streak with a comeback win in Indiana on Tuesday was definitely a step in the right direction, but they got the benefit of a huge couple of calls down the stretch and could've very easily dropped another one. Back home Wednesday, they struggled with the Lakers before a sharper second half. They'll close with road games in five of six and have been inconsistent in both their energy level and execution, so you'll have to take this group's temperature daily. Their defense has largely disappeared, but Thibs has proven able to get that to change for stretches. Recommendation: Fade cautiously
New Orleans Pelicans: DeMarcus Cousins returned to the mix on Wednesday and looking forward to go out against his young former teammates with Sacramento in town to close March. There's basically no room for error as far as the playoffs go, but they do face Denver twice and end the season in Portland. Crazier things have happened but probably won't here. Obviously, New Orleans can still play spoiler due to its talent with Anthony Davis putting up video-game numbers. Solomon Hill and the recently acquired Jordan Crawford have been productive, so there are going to be nights where this team puts it together and inspires confidence that next season could be really fun. The Pels close with consecutive back-to-backs, albeit over the course of six nights. Recommendation: Ride cautiously
Oklahoma City Thunder: Rallying from 21 points down to win at Orlando on Wednesday prevented a loss as a road favorite for the second consecutive contest as Westbrook came to the rescue with the highest-scoring triple-double in NBA history. He'll win MVP if he earns it down the stretch, but that's no gimme. Despite his nightly heroics, he puts his team in positions where they're often stuck watching him work, so he'll have to better balance keeping them engaged and motivated with taking over. After a March 31 home date with the Spurs, the Hornets and Bucks come through town prior to a crucial four-game road trip that will determine how high they can climb, and whether Westbrook will ultimately end up getting the nod over Harden. He looks like he'll average a triple-double. Leading OKC to a top-five finish in the West would be quite the accomplishment given some of its injuries this season. There will be a pair of back-to-backs to fight through, but worrying about Westbrook running out of gas is wasted energy since that seems to impossible. The Thunder have won eight of 10 thanks to comeback wins over the Mavs and Magic, so maybe they'll continue finding ways to win. Recommendation: Ride cautiously
Phoenix Suns: Devin Booker isn't the only reason to watch this group, just the best one. Rookie point guard Tyler Ulis, dunk contest participant Derrick Jones, Jr. and a young frontcourt featuring TJ Warren, rookie Marquese Chriss, Alan Williams and center Alex Len will all get significant minutes, so expect the losing they've been doing to continue. Returning home from a six-game road trip to close with five of seven at home, Phoenix will still give fans reasons to pay attention while continuing to pad the ping-pong balls. The Suns may lose most or even all of their games, but if Booker can return from his ankle injury to give the young core an anchor, expect a few covers and potentially even an upset. Recommendation: Fade cautiously
Portland Trail Blazers: After winning Thursday's home date against the Rockets, the Blazers have emerged as the most successful team in the NBA in March. April could be just as lucrative as they try to finish out the regular season with a flourish to hang on to the No. 8 seed that they've successfully wrestled away from Denver. Five of the final seven games in the closing month will come at home, although there wil be a road back-to-back to deal with at Minnesota and Utah. They've gotten Evan Turner back from what was once thought to be a season-ending injury and have seen midseason acquisition Jusuf Nurkic become a force in the post, creating more breathing room for Dame Lillard and CJ McCollum to work. Portland is definitely rising to the occasion when it matters most. Recommendation: Ride
Sacramento Kings: The Kings are going to be playing the kids as often as possible from now on, so there will certainly be growing pains as guys gel. Willie Cauley-Stein and Skal Labissiere are going to play more with Kosta Koufos getting nights off. Another rookie big man, Giorgios Papagiannis, will get a longer look. Ben McLemore and Buddy Hield will get up shots. They might be able to sneak up on a team or two and do square off with the Lakers and Suns, but this group will be hard-pressed to avoid 50 losses for the seventh time in nine seasons. The under could be a consistent winner if continuity on the offensive end is hard to come by. Recommendation: Fade
San Antonio Spurs: It's nice to see this group whole and playing well with this little time left to kill before the fun begins, but the Warriors taking their defense apart in the second half of Wednesday's loss is a concern set to linger for the duration of their run this season. Elite offensive teams like the ones they'll have to get through will be able to take advantage of LaMarcus Aldridge, Pau Gasol and David Lee on the defensive end by making them move their feet. Gregg Popovich still has time to figure out matchups and rotations, so by no means should you write this group off, but they're not going to earn the West's No. 1 seed since Golden State padded its cushion. That means Pop can do some tinkering and rest guys in what will be two back-to-backs in a four-games-in-five-nights situation from April 4-8. The Spurs won't have to leave the state, but guys will take nights off. They won't lose their grip on the Southwest or the No. 2 seed, but there's no way to count on them going all out the rest of the way. Recommendation: Fade cautiously
Utah Jazz: The Jazz haven't won the Northwest since 2008, hadn't qualified for the postseason since '12 and haven't won a playoff game since 2010. That's why it wasn't a good sign to hear Rudy Gobert sniping about his team not competing like they should and some guys on the team being only concerned with scoring. Derrick Favors has been injured for much of the season due to a knee issue, so the Jazz are already without one of their key difference makers. Point guard George Hill has the most playoff experience due to his history with the Spurs and Pacers, but he's also been dealing with nagging injuries. Gordon Hayward escaped a major injury when a thigh contusion didn't wind up becoming the big deal it could've been, but defeating the DeMarcus Cousins-less Pelicans and the Sacramento Kids feels like a band-aid. We'll see how this group truly responds in games against the Wizards, a pair of home-and-homes with Portland and San Antonio and an April 10 trip into Oakland to face the Warriors. The Northwest isn't Utah's just yet. Recommendation: Fade
