East April Forecast
March 29, 2017
Lots of agendas drive the final weeks of the regular season. Some teams have long resided in their tanks since coming out of the All-Star break while others are ramping up for when most eyes really start watching. Here are some notes to help determine who to ride or fade as playoff berths, seeds and draft lottery odds are all decided between now and April 12.
Atlanta Hawks: The Hawks lost seven consecutive games between March 13-26, a run snapped Tuesday by a win over the only team on a longer losing streak. Considering Phoenix led 78-71 with just over seven minutes left before Atlanta went on a 17-1 run to pull out the win, it's hard to call the slump over. It marked the team's first win in nine games this season without Paul Millsap, who remains out indefinitely with a knee injury that may remain an issue the rest of the way. Kent Bazemore and Thabo Sefolosha have also missed time, which has afforded more opportunities for Ersan Ilyasova and rookie Taurean Prince. Dennis Schroder broke out for 27 points and nine assists, and for better or worse, the Hawks will be his team going forward.
Atlanta has hit 11-for-54 from 3-point range over its last two games and shot it terribly throughout its slide, so even holding on to a playoff berth isn't guaranteed. The schedule is a blessing since they'll follow up beating the lowly Suns with games in Philadelphia, Chicago and Brooklyn, but all those games will come on the road. They'll have three days off in between returning from New York before playing Boston on April 6, so maybe Millsap will be able to get himself back up to speed for their one last push. A home-and-home awaits against Cleveland and the season closes at fellow playoff hopeful Indiana, so this group could be in for a crash-and-burn if they don't build off what may end up being looked at a season-saving run against Phoenix. Recommendation: Fade
Boston Celtics: A four-game run entering a Wednesday night home date with Milwaukee has put the Celtics atop the Eastern Conference for the first time in six years and look like a smart bet to hold on to the slight lead. They'll welcome the Bucks into town on the final night of the regular season and will also see Orlando, Cleveland and Charlotte come through. Their road games come against the Knicks, Hawks and Hornets, teams that they're 6-2 against SU/ATS. Boston is finally healthy and has averaged 115 points on its current home winning streak, so the team has obviously struck the right tempo. Recommendation: Ride
Brooklyn Nets: They almost won four out of five for the first time all season, but fell at home to Philadelphia on Tuesday. As it is, going 3-2 matches their best 5-game run of the season. With Jeremy Lin back and working with fresher legs than most and Brook Lopez giving him plenty of room to work thanks to his ability to draw defenders away from the paint, it looks like the Nets won't go quietly so long as no one gets injured again. Forwards Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Caris LeVert are playing hard and backup scoring guard Sean Kilpatrick should be a factor off the bench in April now that he's back in the lineup. Backup guard Spencer Dinwiddie has had his moments too. Since Feb. 25, Brooklyn has gone 11-6 against the spread, consistently outperforming expectations despite Lin being in and out of the mix. They'll close the season playing five of eight on the road, but only two of their remaining opponents have a winning record. They're the Nets, so they'll be getting points most nights too. Recommendation: Ride more than fade
Charlotte Hornets: The bottom seemed to fall out for this group on Tuesday night. With Milwaukee in town for a crucial game, they didn't bother to defend with any intensity early, fell behind immediately and displayed no "care factor" against the Bucks. It was a must-win they lost badly, which makes for an interesting bounce-back opportunity in Toronto against a Raptors team that has been stifling teams for weeks. The Hornets had won four of five before the no-show and could still get the benefit of the doubt if they show some fight, but the schedule will certainly test their fortitude. If they fall in Oklahoma City and Washington, games where they'll definitely be underdogs, they'll enter the final few games a disappointed group with nothing to play for. Recommendation: Fade
Chicago Bulls: There's been a hint of a resurrection after they dropped a seventh game in eight contests after finding out Dwyane Wade was done for the rest of the season. They covered that first night in a loss in Washington, won outright in a home upset of Utah the next on the second of a back-to-back and have demonstrated a steady pulse since. Jimmy Butler has started concentrating on moving the ball and including everyone. Nikola Mirotic is shooting the cover out of it and the schedule really opens the door for them to move back into the East's top eight. The Bulls will look to sweep the season series from Cleveland to end the month and open April at home against Atlanta, which will be the final team even sniffing around .500 they'll see this season. Although four of Chicago's last six will come on the road, all will come against teams with losing records. Recommendation: Ride cautiously
Cleveland Cavaliers: The Cavs come off an embarrassing effort in San Antonio, but will have a couple of days to lick their wounds before taking aim at avoiding fourth loss of the season at the hands of Chicago. After that, they're home for the Sixers, so they can definitely get back on track before April hits and panic will truly sit in if they're still defending miserably and not shooting straight. There will likely only be one situation where Cleveland will be a double-digit favorite in the coming month (April 4 vs. Orlando), so there are no sure things ahead. How important is getting the homecourt advantage to LeBron James? Can Kevin Love regain his groove? Will Kyle Korver ever overcome his pesky foot injury? J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert, x-factors since their arrival, also require finding a rhythm and defensive communication has been non-existent.
There's no reason to lay points like these are the defending champs just yet, but don't write them off as the team to beat in the Eastern Conference either. They may not wind up with the top seed, but that's not a deal-breaker for this group. Avoiding slipping all the way to No. 4 given how hot their three closest competitors have gotten should provide motivation to start kicking it into gear before the regular season ends, but there are back-to-backs to be concerned with too. Remaining healthy for the playoffs will be the primary concern for this group because they know they can turn it on with a full group. Recommendation: Fade cautiously
Detroit Pistons: After hoping Reggie Jackson's knees would respond, it's now looking like the team won't be able to count on a revival over the final weeks. They rested him in a critical game against Miami on Tuesday and have been starting Ish Smith and bringing him off the bench, but Stan Van Gundy sounded resigned to the fact it's probably best to shelve him. The loss at the buzzer was undeniably deflating since they had come home off a winless four-game road trip and blew a four-point lead in 30 seconds, so beating the Nets at home on Thursday and the Bucks in Milwaukee on Friday feels like a must. They won't play again until April 5 against the Raptors, beginning a four-game stretch against playoff-bound teams, so they may feel defeated before they even step on the floor for the first time next month. That season finale in Orlando isn't likely to mean anything. Recommendation: Fade
Indiana Pacers: Paul George made the right play in drawing a double-team and kicking it to Monta Ellis for the final shot in Tuesday's 115-114 loss to Minnesota, but the miss dropped the Pacers to .500 with a third loss in four outings. It was a game they should've won, which really puts pressure on them as they begin a cruical three-game road trip that will take them through Memphis, Toronto and Cleveland. The team announced that Glenn Robinson III will be re-evaluated late next week to determine when he'll return from a calf injury, while Rodney Stuckey (knee) and Al Jefferson (ankle) likely won't be part of the team's playoff push. With a home-and-home against the Raptors sandwiching that visit to the Q to open April, the short-handed Pacers could really dig themselves a hole entering the regular season's final week. Success likely hinges on Ellis and C.J. Miles generating enough offense to balance out the core group. George scored 37 points at home and the Pacers still lost to a slumping Wolves team that made the plays down the stretch to stage a comeback. That's not a promising sign. This group lost six straight entering the All-Star break and has never really recovered. Recommendation: Fade
Miami Heat: Defeating the Pistons on Whiteside's last-second tip allowed the Heat to remain locked in at No. 8 in the Eastern Conference, continuing a remarkable run after falling to 11-30 on Jan. 13. It marked Miami's first one-point win of the season. The team concludes the month with a home-and-home against New York, but they may not be favored in any game in April provided key regulars aren't rested against them. Dion Waiters remains out with an ankle injury likely to sideline him at least a few more games, but the resilient Heat will continue making their unlikely push. It is worth noting that the comeback win in Auburn Hills prevented what would've been the team's first three-game losing streak since this run began, so there's a chance this group of overachievers may have started running out of gas. Every game will be vital, but it sets up for a riveting finish for a Heat team that seemed destined for a high lottery pick just a few months back. Recommendation: Fade cautiously
Milwaukee Bucks: The Bucks fell to 22-29 on the night Jabari Parker tore his ACL, so it's surprising that they climbed back up two games over .500 with Tuesday's 118-108 win in Charlotte. Tony Snell scored a season-high 26 points on 10-for-14 shooting while rookie Malcolm Brogdon added 14 points and 10 assists, continuing a trend that has helped them win 12 of 15. Khris Middleton returned and helped ease the burden of losing Parker, who was slumping after a strong early run next to Giannis Antetokounmpo. They're getting Michael Beasley (knee) and John Henson (thumb) back to add depth up front for this final April run, so there are indeed enough pieces to emerge as the East's No. 5 seed. They'll have to continue putting strong work on the road, but it's hard to deny Milwaukee's success has been well-deserved. Recommendation: Ride
New York Knicks: The Knicks are out of the playoff hunt, but began a final stretch of playing spoiler with a resounding Monday night home win over Detroit, welcoming Carmelo Anthony back from a knee injury. Outside of its season finale against Philadelphia, every one of New York's remaining games will carry playoff implications for the opponent. Six of the final eight will be in Madison Square Garden, but given how vital the 2017 Draft will be to the Knicks' future, it would be smarter to tank to improve the team's lottery chances. They've only got one back-to-back in play, so it will be interesting how they handle this situation. Even at home and in spite of Melo's strong return, you really can't trust a team that knows ping-pong ball combinations are more important than Ws. Recommendation: Fade cautiously
Orlando Magic: It looks like the Magic will lose 50 games for the fourth time in five years unless they finish with a flurry. Although they had won three of four last week for the first time since Dec. 26 last, that run ended with a 131-112 Monday night loss in Toronto. Orlando has just three April home dates to lean on but hasn't been very good there anyway, winning only one more game there than it has claimed on the road. Despite hoping to win games by locking down defensively, the Magic have surrendered 100 or more points in 45 of the last 52. Recommendation: Fade
Philadelphia 76ers: Dario Saric has likely succeeded in winning Rookie of the Year honors instead of injured teammate Joel Embiid, helping the Sixers match their combined total from each of their past two years. Can they reach 30 wins for the first time since 2013? With another game left against Brooklyn at home, there will be one among the 76ers' final seven in which they'll be favored. Philadelphia is short-handed with Jahlil Okafor still dealing with knee issues, but the remaining group has banded together and promising rookie wing Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot has started asserting himself. Reaching the 30-win mark and potentially finishing ahead of the Knicks for third place in the Atlantic Division should drive this group to at least covering a few more spreads, something Philly has done in nine of 11 entering its March 29 home date against Atlanta. Recommendation: Ride cautiously
Toronto Raptors: Toronto has matched its season-high with six consecutive wins, managing it in an entirely different fashion than its previous run from Nov. 23-Dec.3 that saw a scoring average over 117 points per game. With Cory Joseph haveing replaced the injured Kyle Lowry as the starting point guard, the Raptors have become a dominant defensive group, surrendering 91 or fewer points in four of the six wins. They scored 131 against Orlando on Monday night by shooting the lights out, opening a four-game homestand where they'll be favored every time out. Carrying a double-digit winning streak into a huge regular-season finale at Cleveland on April 12 wouldn't be terribly surprising since the Raps' schedule is manageable, harboring only one back-to-back. Lowry should be back from wrist surgery at some point prior to the postseason and is already working on his conditioning, while DeMarre Carroll is attempting to overcome a back issue. Even though they'll likely be running fourth in the East entering April, they've got a shot at improving significantly if everything breaks right down the stretch. Recommendation: Ride
Washington Wizards: The Wizards won the Southeast for the first time ever, winning a division title for the first time in 38 years when they clinched on Tuesday night by coming back to win and cover against the Lakers. They'll now set their sights on claiming the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, pulling two games behind the Celtics. Realistically, they're likely to fall short of such a lofty goal since six of their final eight come on the road, but if they can pull off an upset against the Jazz to end March or the Warriors to open April, they can close with enough of a push to finish first or second and improve their chances going forward. A 50-win season would be the franchise's first since '79 and appears within reach. Recommendation: Ride
