NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up
Friday, November 16
Harvard split its first two D-I games, losing by 10 to Northeastern, winning at UMass by 3; Crimson is one of four D-I teams in country with all five starters back from LY- they made 41.3% of 3’s in last two games. Rhode Island beat a stiff by 34, then lost by 11 at Charleston, going 2-20 on foul line. URI has a new coach and no senior starters. A-14 home favorites are 5-7 vs spread; Ivy League underdogs are 3-1 so far this season. Last three years, A-14 teams are 16-13-1 vs spread when playing an Ivy opponent.
Rutgers is playing St John’s for first time since 61-59 Red Storm win three years ago in Queens, when Johnnies were down 16 with 14:04 left. St John’s scored 80 ppg in beating couple of stiffs to start season, but they were life/death in 84-80 win over Bowling Green last Friday- they were down 11 in 2nd half. Johnnies starts 3 juniors one senior- they have a 7-man rotation. Rutgers scored 92.5 ppg in beating couple of stiffs by 35-29 points; Scarlet Knights are leading country at 56.5% behind arc they start two sophs, two juniors.
Butler scored 87 ppg in winning its first two games, by 22-21 points. Bulldogs start two juniors, two seniors; they shot 73.1% inside arc in first two games, so they’re getting great shots. Ole Miss has new coach in former Middle Tennessee coach Davis; Rebels scored 1.25 ppp in their opener, a 90-64 win over Western Michigan. Ole Miss forced 24 turnovers (+12) in that game; they’ve got three starters back from 12-20 team that caused coaching change. Big East HF are 2-8 vs spread; SEC underdogs are 2-4 vs spread this season.
UNLV split its first two games, losing to LMU, beating Riverside by 21; Rebels turned ball over 27.9% of time, made just 25.7% of 3’s in shaky start. UNLV is in bottom 10 in country in minutes continuity, so they’re still getting used to each other. Oakland is 0-2, losing to Toledo by a point (led by 14 in 1st half) and in OT to Western Michigan (led by 10 in 2nd half); Grizzlies start three juniors and a senior; they generally play fast and have a few transfers. Mountain West HF are 3-4 vs spread; Horizon League AU are are 6-7 so far this season.
Long trip from Corvallis, OR to the Virgin Islands; Oregon State won its first two games by 13-19 points- Beavers are #47 in minutes continuity- their three best players are the coaches’ sons. OSU has three starters back from a 7-11 Pac-12 team- they’re still picked to finish in bottom half of Pac-12. Old Dominion beat Navy then lost to St Joe’s by 15; Monarchs lost three starters from LY’s 25-7 team— they still start three seniors. Both teams have played slowish pace this season. Pac-12 favorites are 9-7 vs spread; Conference USA underdogs are 6-7.
Wofford was tied with North Carolina with 10:37 left in their home opener, lost by 11; Terriers play a slow place, are #16 in minutes continuity- they’re 21-60 on arc in first two D-I contests. Wofford isn’t athletic, but they won’t be scared either. Stanford lost by 18 in Chapel Hill four days ago; Cardinal is 2-1 with road win at NC-Wilmington. Stanford starts a freshman and three sophs after star Travis bolted for Kentucky- they’re #333 in country in experience. SoCon road underdogs are 6-4 vs spread. Pac-12 home favorites are 8-6.
Jamaica Classic
Patrick Ewing is from Jamaica, so this trip is homecoming for him. Georgetown had solid win at Illini Tuesday, but Illini’s PG didn’t play; Hoyas start two frosh, two seniors- they’ve turned ball over 23.8% of time in their 3-0 start, which is too much. Hoyas are picked to finish near bottom of Big East. Loyola Marymount is off to a 3-0 start, with a win at UNLV; Lions’ coach Dunlap was Charlotte Hornets’ coach at one time. LMU is trying to play like Virginia now; slower pace, tougher defense. Lions are forcing turnovers 29.2% of time- they start two juniors, two seniors.
Charleston tournament
Virginia Tech has 4 starters back from a 21-12 team that made NCAAs LY; Hokies start 3 seniors, one junior- they played three guys 34:00+ in fairly easy (up 14 at half) win over Ball St yesterday. Northeastern lost finals of CAA tournament here LY; Huskies have all 5 starters back from that 23-10 team. Northeastern made 9-17 on arc in 68-52 upset of Alabama yesterday- only two guys played more than 22:00. Hukies are 2-1, losing by 3 to Boston U, winning by 10 at Harvard. Last 3+ years, ACC teams are 11-6 vs spread when playing a CAA opponent.
Purdue scored 88.7 ppg in its 3-0 start; Boilermakers are shooting 63.4% inside arc; they’ve taken 93 3’s, 102 2’s, curious how they do playing back/back days. Davidson has to replace a 2,000-point scorer who graduated LY; Wildcats have three starters back from a 21-12 team, are picked to finish near top of the A-14. Davidson is off to 3-0 start, grinding past Wichita 57-53 yesterday. Wildcats start two freshmen and a soph; of Wildcats’ top 10 guys, only one sub is a senior. Four Davidson guys played 34:00+ yesterday.
Myrtle Beach tournament
St Joe’s won its first three games by 15-15-20 points; Hawks have three starters back from LY, plus couple of good players who were hurt- they used three guys for 32:00+ yesterday. St Joe’s made 16-30 on arc yesterday- they scored 82 ppg in first three games. Central Florida has a 7-6 center, so shooting 3’s against them can help; Knights hammered Fullerton by 16 yesterday after blowing 20-point lead and losing previous game. UCF is a top 40 experience team; they’ve got three starters back from 19-13 team that went 9-9 in AAC.
West Virginia has young guards so they’ll struggle against teams they can’t dominate inside. WVU was 23-37 on line in 71-53 win over Monmouth yesterday; they blew 13-point lead with 7:20 left in home opener loss to Buffalo. WVU played only one guy more than 27:00 Thursday. Western Kentucky has recruited well but is young, starting a frosh, three sophs; Hilltoppers won two of first two games, losing by 18 at Washington (WKU led by 9 at half). WKU has two starters back from a 27-11 team that lost in NIT semifinals- they used three guys 30:00+ yesterday.
2K Classic, Madison Square Garden, NYC
Syracuse is playing without G Howard, which hurts; they used three guys 36:00+ in 83-76 loss to UConn last nite, when Huskies made 12-21 on arc. Orange are making 21.8% of their 3’s so far- young Boeheim is 1-11 behind arc. Only one of eight guys Orange played last night is a senior. Oregon lost three starters from a 23-13 team that was in NIT- they shot only 37.8% inside arc in loss to Iowa last nite. Three Ducks played 32:00+. ACC favorites are 13-6 vs spread this season; Pac-12 underdogs are 0-4 vs spread so far this season.
UConn made 12-21 on arc in emotional win last nite; how will they bounce back here, vs Iowa team that played only one guy more than 28:00 last nite. Huskies won first three games of Dan Hurley era; they’ve got three starters back from 14-18 team that cost Kevin Ollie has job. Iowa has all five starters back from 14-19 team that went 4-14 in Big 14; they got to foul line 33 times (29-33) in 77-69 win over Oregon last nite- they also made 10-29 on arc. Last 3+ years, AAC teams are 11-10-1 vs spread when playing a Big 14 opponent.
Armadillo's Write-Up
Friday, November 16
Harvard split its first two D-I games, losing by 10 to Northeastern, winning at UMass by 3; Crimson is one of four D-I teams in country with all five starters back from LY- they made 41.3% of 3’s in last two games. Rhode Island beat a stiff by 34, then lost by 11 at Charleston, going 2-20 on foul line. URI has a new coach and no senior starters. A-14 home favorites are 5-7 vs spread; Ivy League underdogs are 3-1 so far this season. Last three years, A-14 teams are 16-13-1 vs spread when playing an Ivy opponent.
Rutgers is playing St John’s for first time since 61-59 Red Storm win three years ago in Queens, when Johnnies were down 16 with 14:04 left. St John’s scored 80 ppg in beating couple of stiffs to start season, but they were life/death in 84-80 win over Bowling Green last Friday- they were down 11 in 2nd half. Johnnies starts 3 juniors one senior- they have a 7-man rotation. Rutgers scored 92.5 ppg in beating couple of stiffs by 35-29 points; Scarlet Knights are leading country at 56.5% behind arc they start two sophs, two juniors.
Butler scored 87 ppg in winning its first two games, by 22-21 points. Bulldogs start two juniors, two seniors; they shot 73.1% inside arc in first two games, so they’re getting great shots. Ole Miss has new coach in former Middle Tennessee coach Davis; Rebels scored 1.25 ppp in their opener, a 90-64 win over Western Michigan. Ole Miss forced 24 turnovers (+12) in that game; they’ve got three starters back from 12-20 team that caused coaching change. Big East HF are 2-8 vs spread; SEC underdogs are 2-4 vs spread this season.
UNLV split its first two games, losing to LMU, beating Riverside by 21; Rebels turned ball over 27.9% of time, made just 25.7% of 3’s in shaky start. UNLV is in bottom 10 in country in minutes continuity, so they’re still getting used to each other. Oakland is 0-2, losing to Toledo by a point (led by 14 in 1st half) and in OT to Western Michigan (led by 10 in 2nd half); Grizzlies start three juniors and a senior; they generally play fast and have a few transfers. Mountain West HF are 3-4 vs spread; Horizon League AU are are 6-7 so far this season.
Long trip from Corvallis, OR to the Virgin Islands; Oregon State won its first two games by 13-19 points- Beavers are #47 in minutes continuity- their three best players are the coaches’ sons. OSU has three starters back from a 7-11 Pac-12 team- they’re still picked to finish in bottom half of Pac-12. Old Dominion beat Navy then lost to St Joe’s by 15; Monarchs lost three starters from LY’s 25-7 team— they still start three seniors. Both teams have played slowish pace this season. Pac-12 favorites are 9-7 vs spread; Conference USA underdogs are 6-7.
Wofford was tied with North Carolina with 10:37 left in their home opener, lost by 11; Terriers play a slow place, are #16 in minutes continuity- they’re 21-60 on arc in first two D-I contests. Wofford isn’t athletic, but they won’t be scared either. Stanford lost by 18 in Chapel Hill four days ago; Cardinal is 2-1 with road win at NC-Wilmington. Stanford starts a freshman and three sophs after star Travis bolted for Kentucky- they’re #333 in country in experience. SoCon road underdogs are 6-4 vs spread. Pac-12 home favorites are 8-6.
Jamaica Classic
Patrick Ewing is from Jamaica, so this trip is homecoming for him. Georgetown had solid win at Illini Tuesday, but Illini’s PG didn’t play; Hoyas start two frosh, two seniors- they’ve turned ball over 23.8% of time in their 3-0 start, which is too much. Hoyas are picked to finish near bottom of Big East. Loyola Marymount is off to a 3-0 start, with a win at UNLV; Lions’ coach Dunlap was Charlotte Hornets’ coach at one time. LMU is trying to play like Virginia now; slower pace, tougher defense. Lions are forcing turnovers 29.2% of time- they start two juniors, two seniors.
Charleston tournament
Virginia Tech has 4 starters back from a 21-12 team that made NCAAs LY; Hokies start 3 seniors, one junior- they played three guys 34:00+ in fairly easy (up 14 at half) win over Ball St yesterday. Northeastern lost finals of CAA tournament here LY; Huskies have all 5 starters back from that 23-10 team. Northeastern made 9-17 on arc in 68-52 upset of Alabama yesterday- only two guys played more than 22:00. Hukies are 2-1, losing by 3 to Boston U, winning by 10 at Harvard. Last 3+ years, ACC teams are 11-6 vs spread when playing a CAA opponent.
Purdue scored 88.7 ppg in its 3-0 start; Boilermakers are shooting 63.4% inside arc; they’ve taken 93 3’s, 102 2’s, curious how they do playing back/back days. Davidson has to replace a 2,000-point scorer who graduated LY; Wildcats have three starters back from a 21-12 team, are picked to finish near top of the A-14. Davidson is off to 3-0 start, grinding past Wichita 57-53 yesterday. Wildcats start two freshmen and a soph; of Wildcats’ top 10 guys, only one sub is a senior. Four Davidson guys played 34:00+ yesterday.
Myrtle Beach tournament
St Joe’s won its first three games by 15-15-20 points; Hawks have three starters back from LY, plus couple of good players who were hurt- they used three guys for 32:00+ yesterday. St Joe’s made 16-30 on arc yesterday- they scored 82 ppg in first three games. Central Florida has a 7-6 center, so shooting 3’s against them can help; Knights hammered Fullerton by 16 yesterday after blowing 20-point lead and losing previous game. UCF is a top 40 experience team; they’ve got three starters back from 19-13 team that went 9-9 in AAC.
West Virginia has young guards so they’ll struggle against teams they can’t dominate inside. WVU was 23-37 on line in 71-53 win over Monmouth yesterday; they blew 13-point lead with 7:20 left in home opener loss to Buffalo. WVU played only one guy more than 27:00 Thursday. Western Kentucky has recruited well but is young, starting a frosh, three sophs; Hilltoppers won two of first two games, losing by 18 at Washington (WKU led by 9 at half). WKU has two starters back from a 27-11 team that lost in NIT semifinals- they used three guys 30:00+ yesterday.
2K Classic, Madison Square Garden, NYC
Syracuse is playing without G Howard, which hurts; they used three guys 36:00+ in 83-76 loss to UConn last nite, when Huskies made 12-21 on arc. Orange are making 21.8% of their 3’s so far- young Boeheim is 1-11 behind arc. Only one of eight guys Orange played last night is a senior. Oregon lost three starters from a 23-13 team that was in NIT- they shot only 37.8% inside arc in loss to Iowa last nite. Three Ducks played 32:00+. ACC favorites are 13-6 vs spread this season; Pac-12 underdogs are 0-4 vs spread so far this season.
UConn made 12-21 on arc in emotional win last nite; how will they bounce back here, vs Iowa team that played only one guy more than 28:00 last nite. Huskies won first three games of Dan Hurley era; they’ve got three starters back from 14-18 team that cost Kevin Ollie has job. Iowa has all five starters back from 14-19 team that went 4-14 in Big 14; they got to foul line 33 times (29-33) in 77-69 win over Oregon last nite- they also made 10-29 on arc. Last 3+ years, AAC teams are 11-10-1 vs spread when playing a Big 14 opponent.
