NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up
Tuesday, November 13
Wisconsin has all five starters back from a 15-18 team that went 7-11 in Big 14; they’ve got 94.9% of their scoring back. Badgers won their opener 85-63 over Coppin State- they made 12-32 on arc, took only 29 2’s. Wisky starts three sophs, two seniors. Xavier has a new coach; three new starters after a 29-6 year that got Chris Mack the Louisville job. Xavier won its first two games by 13-6 points, scoring 86.6 ppg. Last three years, Big 14 teams are 27-25-1 vs spread when playing Big East teams, 13-14 when favored.
Rhode Island beat Charleston 68-62 LY, after trailing by 5 with 11:02 left; URI starts three juniors this year- four of their top eight guys are frosh. URI lost four starters and its coach from a 26-8 team that got Hurley the UConn job; they’re picked 5th in A-14. Rams made 12-32 on arc in their opening 97-63 win over Bryant. Charleston has three starters back from a 26-8 team that made NCAA’s LY; Cougars won their first two games this year while allowing 73-74 points- they were down 9 with 9:52 left but beat Western Carolina by 3. Charleston starts two seniors.
George Mason lost its first two games by total of 4 points; they led Penn by 9 with 12:45 left, lost by 1, then lost to American by 3, when they led by 4 with 1:40 left in OT. Patriots start couple of juniors, two seniors; they lost 74-51 at home to Georgia Southern LY, turning ball over 21 times (-10). GSU whacked a stiff by 88 points in its opener, so tough to tell a lot about them yet; Eagles have three starters back LY’s 21-12 team that won road games (8) than home games (7) last year. Last three years, A-14 teams are 3-7 vs spread when playing Sun Belt teams.
LSU made 13-26 on arc, won 71-61 at Memphis LY, in game that was tied at half. Memphis beat Tennessee Tech 76-51 in Penny Hardaway’s debut at Tigers’ coach last week; Memphis starts two frosh, two seniors- they forced 26 turnovers (+12), made only 6-24 on arc. Memphis has three starters back from LY’s 21-13 team that got Tubby Smith sent packing. LSU lost three starters from an 18-15 team that went 8-10 in SEC. Tigers scored 95.5 ppg in winning their first two games this year- they beat NC-Greensboro 97-91 in last game Friday.
Harvard/UMass split their last four meetings, going 1-1 in each gym; Crimson won LY’s game 70-67 at home in OT. Harvard has all five starters back from LY’s 18-14 team but they lost by 10 to Northeastern in last game Friday- game was tied at the half. Harvard starts three juniors, no sophs, has no seniors in its top nine guys. UMass scored 93.5 ppg in winning its first two games; Minutemen start a senior and three juniors- they were 10-19 on arc in last game. Last 3+ years, A-14 teams are 16-12-1 vs spread when playing an Ivy League opponent.
Oakland beat Western Michigan last two years, by 5-17 points; Grizzlies lost their opener 87-86 at home to Toledo, going 13-23 on foul line in game they led by 14 early. Oakland starts three juniors and a senior but has only one starter back from LY’s 19-14 team that went 10-8 in Horizon. WMU beat Detroit in its opener then lost 90-64 at Ole Miss; Broncos turned ball over 24 times in Oxford; they start two sophs, two seniors, have only one starter back from LY. Last three years, MAC teams are 39-26 vs spread when playing a Horizon opponent.
Georgia outscored Temple 28-4 on foul line in in 84-66 home win LY. Dawgs beat a stiff by 36 in Tom Crean’s debut as Georgia’s coach; they were only up 13 with 10:00 left. Dawgs took 32 FT’s, Savannah State 3 (Savannah was 17-57 on arc, 12-36 inside it). Georgia has three starters back from an 18-15 team; they start three sophs, two seniors. Temple won its first two games, giving up 67 points in both games; Owls start two sophs, two seniors; they’ve got three starters back from a 17-16 team. Last 3 years, SEC teams are 17-11 vs spread when playing an AAC opponent.
Milwaukee made 9-17 on arc, beat Florida International 66-51; they lost their first two games this year, by 20 at Boston College, by 3 at home to North Dakota; Panthers shot only 30.4% inside the arc in those games. Milwaukee lost four starters from LY’s 16-17 team that went 8-10 in Horizon— they start a senior, three juniors. FIU beat up on two NAIA teams to start the year, scoring 113.5 ppg; they’ve got a new coach and four new starters back from a 14-18 team that got the last coach fired. Last three years, C-USA teams are 3-4 vs spread vs Horizon opponents.
Georgetown beat up on two stiffs by 15-7 points to start Patrick Ewing’s 2nd year as Hoyas’ coach; Georgetown has three starters back from a 15-15 team that went 5-13 in Big East- they’re picked to finish near bottom of Big East again. Hoyas start two frosh, two seniors. Illinois beat Evansville by 39 in its opener, making 12-28 on arc; Illini lost four starters from LY’s 15-17 team that went 4-14 in Big 14- they start two frosh and a soph. Last three years, Big 14 teams are 27-25-1 vs spread when playing Big East teams, 13-14 when favored.
LMU is trying to play more like Virginia; they won 61-50 at UNLV Saturday, forcing 24 turnovers in 68-possession game. Lions start two juniors, two seniors- they played three guys 35:00+ in Vegas. LMU beat Northridge last three years, by 1-2-17 points; they’re picked to finish near bottom of WCC. CSUN has new coach, four new starters; Matadors lost their opener 77-74 at home to New Mexico, after leading by 3 with 4:48 left. CSUN played six frosh, two sophs and one senior (coach’s son). Last three years, Big West teams are 30-26 vs spread when playing WCC teams.
Tennessee beat Georgia Tech last two years by 7-23 points; they beat Tech 77-70 LY in Atlanta. Vols won their opener this year by 22 over Louisiana- they start three juniors, two seniors, are considered a top 10 team nationally. Vols have all five starters back from LY’s 26-9 team. Tech won its opener 88-69 over Lamar on Friday; Yellow Jackets were 12-30 on arc, 20-33 inside arc- they start three sophs, are picked to finish last in the ACC. Last three years, ACC teams are 31-32 vs spread when playing an SEC team, 12-18 when they’re an underdog.
UNLV was terrible in its opener, a 61-50 home loss to LMU when they turned ball over 24 times in 68 possessions, shot 2-16 on arc; Rebels won their last two meetings with Riverside by 12-11 points- teams didn’t play LY. UNLV starts three seniors, is picked to finish in middle of pack in Mountain West. Riverside lost its first two games by 13-7 points, scoring 61.5 ppg; Highlanders turned ball over on 25.2% of its possessions- they’re picked to finish last in Big West. Last three years, Mountain West teams are 14-16-1 vs spread when playing Mountain West teams.
NC-Greensboro beat NC-Wilmington 71-58 at home LY, after trailing by 8 late in first half; UNCG split its first two games this month, losing 97-91 at LSU Friday even though Spartans made 19-33 on arc as they tried to erase 18-point deficit. Seahawks lost its first two games by 4-13 points, turning ball over 24.9% of time; UNCW starts three juniors and a senior, but they haven’t been same since coach Keatts bolted to NC State. Last three years, SoCon teams are 13-4 vs spread when playing a CAA opponent.
