CNOTES COLLEGE HOOPS OPINIONS BEST BETS AND NEWS !

[CNOTES]

Completed Picks​

Past Completed Picks

Date	W-L-T	%	Units	Record
03/28/2023	2-2-0	50.00%	-100	Detail
03/26/2023	4-0-0	100.00%	+2000	Detail
03/25/2023	2-2-0	50.00%	-100	Detail
03/24/2023	4-4-0	50.00%	-200	Detail
03/23/2023	3-5-0	37.50%	-1250	Detail
03/22/2023	0-2-0	0.00%	-1100	Detail
03/21/2023	5-3-0	62.50%	+850	Detail
03/20/2023	1-1-0	50.00%	-50	Detail
03/19/2023	13-23-0	36.11%	-6150	Detail
03/18/2023	10-18-0	35.71%	-4900	Detail
03/17/2023	15-16-1	48.44%	-1300	Detail
03/16/2023	15-17-0	46.88%	-1850	Detail
03/15/2023	10-10-0	50.00%	-500	Detail
03/14/2023	11-8-1	57.50%	+1100	Detail
03/12/2023	3-7-0	30.00%	-2350	Detail
03/11/2023	25-21-0	54.35%	+950	Detail
03/10/2023	39-33-0	54.17%	+1350	Detail
03/09/2023	54-53-4	50.45%	-2150	Detail
03/08/2023	35-33-2	51.43%	-650	Detail
03/07/2023	21-31-0	40.38%	-6550	Detail
03/06/2023	9-17-2	35.71%	-4850	Detail
03/05/2023	30-30-0	50.00%	-1500	Detail
03/04/2023	84-102-0	45.16%	-14100	Detail
03/03/2023	36-24-2	59.68%	+4800	Detail
03/02/2023	63-44-1	58.80%	+7300	Detail
03/01/2023	31-43-2	42.11%	-8150	Detail

 

[CNOTES]

Completed Picks​

Date	League	Game	Score	Pick	Outcome
Mar 28, 2023	NCAAB	North Texas Wisconsin	56 54	UNT -1.5	Win
Mar 26, 2023	NCAAB	Creighton San Diego St.	56 57	SDSU +1.5	Win
Mar 25, 2023	NCAAB	Florida Atlantic Kansas State	79 76	Over 144.5	Win
Mar 24, 2023	NCAAB	San Diego St. Alabama	71 64	SDSU +7.5	Win
Mar 23, 2023	NCAAB	Michigan St. Kansas State	93 98	Over 138.5	Win
Mar 22, 2023	NCAAB	Cincinnati Utah Valley	68 74	Over 148.5	Loss
Mar 21, 2023	NCAAB	North Texas Oklahoma State	65 59	UNT +4.5	Win
Mar 20, 2023	NCAAB	Charlotte Milwaukee	76 65	Over 139.5	Win
Mar 19, 2023	NCAAB	Michigan St. Marquette	69 60	Under 140.0	Win
Mar 18, 2023	NCAAB	Penn St. Texas	66 71	PSU +5.5	Win

 

[CNOTES]

Wednesday’s 6-pack
Six top prospects for the Arizona Diamondbacks:
1) Corbin Carroll, OF
2) Jordan Lawlar, SS
3) Druw Jones, OF
4) Brandon Pfaadt, P
5) Deyvison de los Santos, 3B
6) Ryne Nelson, P

Quote of the Day
“People have gotten used to going from Sunday afternoon to Sunday night; that doesn’t mean that they like it. This year, we could be flexed to Monday night, which I think is really inconsiderate to our ticket holders. To flex a game back to Thursday night, to me, is just abusive. I am adamantly opposed to it. Fortunately, it didn’t get enough votes today, but it will probably be revisited in May.”
New Jersey Giants’ owner John Mara

Wednesday’s quiz
Nolan Ryan pitched for 27 years in the big leagues; who did he start his major league career with?

Tuesday’s quiz
Tony Gwynn was once the point guard for San Diego State’s basketball team.

Monday’s quiz
In the movie Rounders, John Malkovich played Russian mobster Teddy KGB

********************************************************

Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings……..

NIT semifinals
— North Texas 56, Wisconsin 54
Wisconsin didn’t score in last 9:08 of this game.
Badgers led 41-29 at half; they scored 13 points in 2nd half.
Two guards on North Texas played all 40:00 (61 possessions, slow pace)

— UAB 88, Utah Valley 86 OT
UAB won despite its best player shooting 5-23 from the floor.
Ty Brewer scored 30 points, had 12 rebounds, five steals.

— Conference USA is now 17-1 in postseason games this month; Charlotte won the CBI, FAU is in the Final Four, and the NIT final is two C-USA teams. 17-1 is freakin’ impressive.

— NIT Final Four has traditionally been in Madison Square Garden, but this year it is in the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas and next year, it is at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indiana, where they shot the finale scenes in Hoosiers.

— College coaching stuff:
Penn State hired VCU coach Mike Rhoades
VCU then hired Utah State coach Ryan Odom

— Happy 79th birthday this week to Rick Barry, one of the best basketball players of all-time; he was Larry Bird before Larry Bird. Famous for shooting free throws underhanded, Barry led the Warriors to the 1975 NBA title. He also has five sons who all played pro basketball.

Had Barry played during the ESPN era, he would get a lot more credit for how great he was.

— Baseball’s new rules this season are giving umpires a lot of discretion, especially where the pitch clock is concerned. Hopefully at the end of close games, they’ll let players decide the outcomes. We’ll see what happens.

By the way, after last season, 12 umpires retired, which seems like an awful lot for one season, so in a year when umpires have more discretion, there will be 12 new umpires.

— Cleveland Guardians signed 2B Andres Gimenez a 7-year, $106.5M contract extension; 24-year old Gimenez hit .297 last year, with 17 home runs.

— Cleveland P Tristan McKenzie is out 6-8 weeks with a strained back.

— Cubs signed 2B Nico Hoerner to a 3-year, $35M contract extension; Hoerner hit ,281 last year with 60 runs scored, 55 RBI.

— Where do various major league teams get their top prospects from? My book came in the mail Tuesday, which lists each team’s top 30 prospects.

18 of the Astros’ top 30 prospects played college baseball, more than any team; Cardinals/Giants have 16 college players in their top 30.

Reds, Mets, Red Sox have only six college players in their top 30 prospects.

Rangers have 13 high school players in their top 30, Red Sox 10, Pirates 9. Bronx has only one high school player in their top 30; Dodgers have only three.

Bronx (15), Mets (14), White Sox/Toronto (13 each) have the most international players in their top 30; Orioles/Rays have only four each.

Cincinnati acquired 11 of its top 30 prospects via trade; A’s/Rays acquired 10. White Sox are only team in major leagues whose top 30 prospects are all home grown.

— Atlanta Falcons named Desmond Ridder their starting QB for the coming season, probably so people will stop asking them about Lamar Jackson. Ridder split four games as Atlanta’s starting QB during his rookie season last year.

— Was watching the XFL game Monday night when I was reminded of something from 40 years ago, the night I was part of the chain gang at a semi-pro football game here in Albany.

Metro Mallers played at Bleecker Stadium in Albany for a long time; it was pretty good football, a fun night out. I went to the game but didn’t feel like paying to get in; saw a friend of mine’s dad who worked for the Mallers, asked him to get me in for free.

He smiled and said “I’ve got just the job for you”

I’m 22-23 years old, just out of college; lot of the guys on the Mallers played ball at UAlbany— my work study job in college was doing stats for football/basketball games, so when I went out on the field for a measurement in the first quarter, Donnie Hyde, who was a really good linebacker, looked at me and said “What the hell are you doing here?”

I laughed and said “Just like college; you’re playing and I’m watching”

The other team had uniforms just like the Cowboys; I’m standing on their sidelines with the chains, and during the third quarter of a close game, I’m standing next to their head coach.

He has his play chart in his left hand, and is sending plays in via messenger; then I realized he has a freakin’ can of beer in his right hand- the guy is drinking Pabst Blue Ribbon while he is coaching the game, calling plays.

That was the epitome of semi-pro football; guys playing because they loved to play, just having fun on a Saturday night. Think I did OK with the chains too; no one complained.

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday’s 6-pack
Six top prospects for the Atlanta Braves:
1) AJ Smith-Shawver, P
2) Owen Murphy, P
3) Jared Shuster, P
4) JR Ritchie, P
5) Royber Salinas, P
6) Darius Vines, P

Quote of the Day
“Why did they call me a game manager? Why did I win 15 straight games in the NFL? I learned how not to lose.”
Former NFL QB/current UAB football coach Trent Dilfer

Thursday’s quiz
When was the last time the national championship game in college basketball didn’t have a #1-seed playing in it?

Wednesday’s quiz
Nolan Ryan pitched for 27 years in the big leagues; he started his major league career with the Mets.

Tuesday’s quiz
Tony Gwynn was once the point guard for San Diego State’s basketball team.

****************************************

Thursday’s Den: Happy Opening Day, everyone!!!

Baseball season starts today, one of the best days of the year.

— Rule changes are going to help the game:
Pitch clock chopped 36:00 off of spring training games. Pace of pace should be a lot better this season. Most of the younger players have already played with a pitch clock in the minors; don’t think we’ll notice the pitch clock much, once the season gets rolling.

Banning the shift will help lefty pull hitters be more productive.

Stricter rules on pickoff throws to first base should promote base stealing, especially since the bases are a little bigger. Bases are slightly closer to each other now.

I would recommend betting the over on stolen base props this season.

— New schedule in the big leagues this year; every team plays every other team this year, which means that starts like Trout/Ohtani/Soto, over the course of two years, will play in every big league ballpark. Division rivals will play each other only 13 games this season.

Batters are going to see the same pitchers fewer times, which figures to hurt offense some.

You look back at the old days and hitters faced the same pitchers a ton of times, which helps the hitters. Nowadays, teams don’t like pitchers to face the same hitter three times in a game.

— What will Aaron Judge do for an encore this season? Last year, he hit 62 home runs, had a 1.111 OPS, 111 walks, 133 runs, 131 RBI. Tough act to follow.

— This is Shohei Ohtani’s walk year; what are the Angels going to do with him? Angels are paying him $30M this year, he makes another $40M in endorsements— he will break the bank next winter, but with what team?

Do the Angels trade him this summer? If so, what do they get for him? Halos’ over/under win total is 81.5, but if they trade Ohtani this summer, what happens then?

— Which brings us to the cruddy, cheap teams like the A’s, Pirates; their win totals are really low. Would Pittsburgh trade Bryan Reynolds? Pirates have some good young players, but if they don’t sign Reynolds to a contract extension and trade him away, what happens then?

Last three years, Pirates are 142-242, losing 101-100 games the last two years. Their win total for this year is 67.5, so they’re expected to be slightly better this season.

As for the A’s, their win total is 59.5, so 60-102 would net them the over, which is depressing on several levels. Oakland’s owners are cheap bastards; the franchise made a $29M profit last year despite fielding a God-awful team that went 60-102.

A’s did add some starting pitching this year with Fujinami/Muller; I’ve been an A’s fan since 1965 when I was five years old, so I have this stubborn optimistic streak inside me that says they could be way better than 60-102 this year, but they were over .500 every year form 2018-21, then went in the ashcan last year. Going to be tough to lose less than 90 games this season, but 72-90 would be a pretty big improvement.

Meanwhile, the A’s off-field drama continues; will they move to Las Vegas? Portland? Doubtful that Oakland builds them a new stadium. If I was in Las Vegas, I’d make the cheap bastards put it in writing that they’re going to spend $$$ on payroll if they move to the desert.

— Right now, the Mets’ payroll for this season is $357,083,333; there are 13 major league teams with a payroll of $200M+, but no other team is close to the Mets’ payroll.

Mets have two Hall of Fame pitchers in Scherzer/Verlander, but they’re 38/40 years old. NL East is a tough division; team that finished third in the NL East last year won the NL pennant. Mets lost closer Diaz for the season; who takes his place as the closer?

— Red Sox won the World Series in 2018, then missed the playoffs three of the last four years, finishing last in the AL East last year, 21 games behind; their current payroll is $194,695,000, their over/under for wins this year is 77.5.

— Bruce Bochy will be a Hall of Fame manager, having won three titles with the Giants; now he is managing the Texas Rangers, who signed Jacob deGrom this winter, and have a payroll at a hefty $221,544,827. Semien/Seager/deGrom make a combined $91.5M, just the three of them. Rangers’ over/under win total is 81.5.

— Dodgers won the NL West nine of the last ten years, but it looks like San Diego has a better team this season. Padres haven’t won the NL West since 2006, when their manager was Bruce Bochy; their payroll this year is $248,981,645.

Peter Seidler is the Padres’ owner; he is the grandson of Walter O’Malley, the guy who moved the Dodgers from Brooklyn to Los Angeles in the 50’s.

Unclear why the Dodgers let Trea Turner walk; are they putting $$$ aside to go all-in with the Ohtani sweepstakes next winter?

— Astros won their second World Series last year; they’ve been in four of last six World Series, but then they fired their general manager? Why?????

Altuve broke his thumb in the World Baseball Classic, is out until June; they lost Verlander. Could this be a year that Texas/Seattle challenges them in the AL West?

Last two years, Mariners went 67-41 in one-run games; is that sustainable?

— Six months of baseball starts today; enjoy it, everyone.

 

[Udog]

N TEXAS are 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) in road games after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.




NCAAB
Dunkel

Thursday, March 30

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Thursday, March 30

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UAB (29 - 9) vs. N TEXAS (30 - 7) - 3/30/2023, 9:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N TEXAS is 38-26 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
N TEXAS is 38-26 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
N TEXAS is 31-18 ATS (+11.2 Units) when the total is 120 to 129.5 over the last 3 seasons.
N TEXAS is 37-22 ATS (+12.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
N TEXAS is 35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
N TEXAS is 29-18 ATS (+9.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
N TEXAS is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.
N TEXAS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
UAB is 4-3 against the spread versus N TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
UAB is 4-3 straight up against N TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, March 30

North Texas vs Alabama-Birmingham
— North Texas (30-7) ranked #33 by KenPom
— Tempo: #363
— Experience: #167
— Continuity: #142
— North Texas won 15 of its last 17 games.
— Mean Green allowed 55.3 ppg in its first four NIT games.
— North Texas held Wisconsin scoreless in last 9:00 Tuesday.
— Two guys on North Texas played all 40:00 Tuesday
— Mean Green has #7 eFG% defense in country.
— North Texas is #42 team in country on offensive boards.
— North Texas schedule, to this point: #108
— bench minutes: #223
— North Texas best wins: 63-52/82-79 2OT over #45 UAB

— UAB (29-9) ranked #45 by KenPom
— Tempo: #31
— Experience: #5
— Continuity: #108
— UAB won 16 of its last 18 games.
— Blazers played two starters 41:00 in Tuesday’s OT win.
— UAB’s best player shot 5-23 from floor in Tuesday’s win.
— Blazers have #43 eFG% defense in country.
— UAB is #10 team in country on offensive boards.
— UAB’s schedule, to this point: #123
— bench minutes: #73
— UAB’s best win: 86-77 over #17 Florida Atlantic

— North Texas beat UAB two of three games this season; UAB beat the Mean Green in the C-USA Tournament. One of UNT’s wins was in double overtime.




NCAAB

Thursday, March 30

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UAB @ North Texas
UAB
The total has gone OVER in 4 of UAB's last 6 games when playing North Texas
North Texas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of North Texas's last 6 games when playing UAB


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[CNOTES]

THURSDAY, MARCH 30​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
UAB at UNT	09:30 PM	UNT +2.0 U 128.0	+500 +500

 

[CNOTES]

Completed Picks​

Past Completed Picks

Date	W-L-T	%	Units	Record
03/30/2023	1-1-0	50.00%	-50	Detail
03/28/2023	2-2-0	50.00%	-100	Detail
03/26/2023	4-0-0	100.00%	+2000	Detail
03/25/2023	2-2-0	50.00%	-100	Detail
03/24/2023	4-4-0	50.00%	-200	Detail
03/23/2023	3-5-0	37.50%	-1250	Detail
03/22/2023	0-2-0	0.00%	-1100	Detail
03/21/2023	5-3-0	62.50%	+850	Detail
03/20/2023	1-1-0	50.00%	-50	Detail
03/19/2023	13-23-0	36.11%	-6150	Detail
03/18/2023	10-18-0	35.71%	-4900	Detail
03/17/2023	15-16-1	48.44%	-1300	Detail
03/16/2023	15-17-0	46.88%	-1850	Detail
03/15/2023	10-10-0	50.00%	-500	Detail
03/14/2023	11-8-1	57.50%	+1100	Detail
03/12/2023	3-7-0	30.00%	-2350	Detail
03/11/2023	25-21-0	54.35%	+950	Detail
03/10/2023	39-33-0	54.17%	+1350	Detail
03/09/2023	54-53-4	50.45%	-2150	Detail
03/08/2023	35-33-2	51.43%	-650	Detail
03/07/2023	21-31-0	40.38%	-6550	Detail
03/06/2023	9-17-2	35.71%	-4850	Detail
03/05/2023	30-30-0	50.00%	-1500	Detail
03/04/2023	84-102-0	45.16%	-14100	Detail
03/03/2023	36-24-2	59.68%	+4800	Detail
03/02/2023	63-44-1	58.80%	+7300	Detail
03/01/2023	31-43-2	42.11%	-8150	Detail

 

[CNOTES]

Friday’s 6-pack
Six top prospects for the Baltimore Orioles:
1) Gunnar Henderson, SS
2) Grayson Rodriguez, P
3) Jackson Holliday, SS
4) Colton Cowser, OF
5) DL Hall, P
6) Jordan Westburg, SS-3B

Quote of the Day
“That’s just the business we’re in right now. He’s everything we want to be about. He’s a hard worker. He cares about his teammates. He cares about where he’s from — Ohio. This fanbase, I think he represents us the right way. And so, we take a lot of pride in having Joe Burrow as our quarterback.”
Bengals coach Zac Taylor

Friday’s quiz
In the movie Bull Durham, Timothy Robbins played a minor league pitcher; what number did his character wear in the movie?

Thursday’s quiz
2014 was the last time the national championship game in college basketball didn’t have a #1-seed playing in it; #7-seed UConn beat #8-seed Kentucky in the final that year.

Wednesday’s quiz
Nolan Ryan pitched for 27 years in the big leagues; he started his major league career with the Mets.

*******************************************************

Friday’s Den: Wrapping up Opening Day of baseball season

— Rangers 11, Phillies 7:
Texas scored nine runs in 4th inning after Phillies had led 5-0.
First time since 1997 a team scored 9+ runs in an inning on Opening Day.
Rangers won despite deGrom giving up five runs in 3.2 IP.
Grossman hit a 3-run homer for Texas.

— Blue Jays 10, Cardinals 9:
Springer went 5-6, scored four runs, tied game with hit in 9th.
Guerrero hit sac fly for game-winning run in top of 9th.
Cardinals lost C Contreras with knee injury in 7th inning.
Donovan went 3-6 with three runs scored for St Louis.

— White Sox 3, Astros 2:
Vaughn hit 2-run double in top of 9th for game-winning hit.
Game was scoreless thru six innings.
First time in 11 years Houston lost on Opening Day.

— Orioles 10, Red Sox 9:
Baltimore led 10-4 after seven innings, hung on for dear life.
Rutschman went 5-5 with four RBI for the Orioles.
Slots 1-4 in Boston order went 8-18; slots 5-9 went 3-17.

— Pirates 5, Reds 4:
Cruz homered early, had game-winning sac fly in 8th inning.
Pirate bullpen threw 4.1 scoreless IP, allowed only four baserunners.
This is 7th year in a row that Pittsburgh started season on road.

— Cubs 4, Brewers 0:
Stroman tossed six shutout IP, allowed six baserunners.
Chicago scored all four of its runs in the third inning.
Swanson went 3-for-4 in his first game as a Cub.

— Braves 7, Nationals 2:
d’Arnaud went 4-5 with two runs scored, two RBI.
It took Washington starter Corbin 80 pitches to get thru three IP.
Braves’ starter Fried is headed to the IL with a hamstring injury.
Washington was 1-11 with runners in scoring position.

— Mets 5, Marlins 3:
Nimmo had RBI double in 7th inning to put Mets ahead for good.
Marlins had tied game with three runs in 6th inning off Scherzer.
Mets put star P Verlander on IL with a muscle pull near his shoulder.

— Rays 4, Tigers 0:
McClanahan threw six shutout IP, allowed five baserunners.
Rays’ home opener drew 25,025 fans, not great for a successful franchise.
Siri and Franco homered for Tampa Bay

— Twins 2, Royals 0:
Game was scoreless after five innings.
Lopez got 16 outs on 85 pitches, allowed five baserunners.
Kansas City was 0-6 with RISP.

— Bronx 5, Giants 0:
Judge scored first run of MLB season with a 1st inning homer.
Cole threw six shutout IP, striking out 11 Giants.
Torres hit a two-run homer in fourth inning.

 

[Udog]

SAN DIEGO ST is 13-2 ATS (10.8 Units) after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seaso...

CONNECTICUT is 10-0 ATS (10 Units) after 3 consecutive non-conference games in the current season.




NCAAB
Dunkel

Saturday, April 1

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Saturday, April 1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLA ATLANTIC (35 - 3) vs. SAN DIEGO ST (31 - 6) - 4/1/2023, 6:09 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO ST is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
SAN DIEGO ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
FLA ATLANTIC is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) in all games this season.
FLA ATLANTIC is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
FLA ATLANTIC is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.
FLA ATLANTIC is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
FLA ATLANTIC is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in non-conference games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI (29 - 7) vs. CONNECTICUT (29 - 8) - 4/1/2023, 8:49 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CONNECTICUT is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all games this season.
CONNECTICUT is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
CONNECTICUT is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.
CONNECTICUT is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
CONNECTICUT is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
CONNECTICUT is 14-1 ATS (+12.9 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
CONNECTICUT is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
CONNECTICUT is 14-1 ATS (+12.9 Units) in non-conference games this season.
CONNECTICUT is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after scoring 80 points or more this season.
CONNECTICUT is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all tournament games this season.
CONNECTICUT is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MIAMI is 22-14 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 22-14 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
MIAMI is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
MIAMI is 70-42 ATS (+23.8 Units) in road games on Saturday games since 1997.
MIAMI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after scoring 80 points or more this season.
MIAMI is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MIAMI is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
MIAMI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, April 1

Final Four (@ Houston)

Over the last 30 years, underdogs are 11-8-1 ATS in national semi-final games where neither team was a #1-seed. There are no #1-seeds in this Final Four.

San Diego State vs Florida Atlantic
— San Diego State (31-6) ranked #14 by KenPom
— Tempo: #266
— Experience: #21
— Continuity: #39
— San Diego State won eight in row, 14 of last 15 games.
— San Diego State allowed 55.8 ppg in its last eight games.
— Aztecs have #20 eFG% defense in country.
— Aztecs are 17-6 against top 100 teams.
— San Diego State is 13-3 in games decoded by 7 or less points.
— San Diego State’s schedule, to this point: #35
— bench minutes: #30
— San Diego State’s best win: 71-64 over #4 Alabama

— Florida Atlantic (35-3) ranked #17 by KenPom
— Tempo: #156
— Experience: #148
— Continuity: #26
— FAU won its last eleven games.
— FAU gave up 80-86-74 points in its three losses.
— Owls have #15 eFG% defense, #25 eFG% offense
— Owls are 13-1 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— FAU is 9-1 against top 100 teams.
— FAU’s schedule, to this point: #118
— bench minutes: #14
— FAU’s best win: 62-55 over #7 Tennessee

Miami vs UConn
— Miami (29-7) ranked #22 by KenPom
— Tempo: #90
— Experience: #27
— Continuity: #138
— Miami won 13 of its last 15 games.
— Larranaga was in Final Four with George Mason in 2006.
— Canes have #22 eFG% in country.
— Canes are #74 team in country on offensive boards.
— Miami is 8-3 against top 50 teams.
— Miami’s schedule, to this point: #65
— bench minutes: #326
— Miami’s best win: 89-75 over #2 Houston

— UConn (29-8) ranked #1 by KenPom
— Tempo: #204
— Experience: #115
— Continuity: #248
— UConn won 13 of its last 15 games.
— Huskies won its four NCAA games by 24-15-23-28 points.
— UConn has #8 eFG% defense in country.
— UConn is 1-5 in games decided by 6 or less points.
— Huskies are 11-6 vs top 50 teams.
— UConn’s schedule, to this point: #25
— bench minutes: #224
— UConn’s best win: 82-67 over #2 Alabama




NCAAB

Saturday, April 1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Florida Atlantic @ San Diego State
Florida Atlantic
No trends to report
San Diego State
No trends to report

Miami @ Connecticut
Miami
Miami is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Connecticut
Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Connecticut
Connecticut
Connecticut is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami
Connecticut is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Miami


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday’s 6-pack
Years since these NFL teams’ last playoff win:
31 years— Detroit Lions
22 years— Miami Dolphins
20 years— Las Vegas Raiders
17 years— Washington Commanders
12 years— Chicago Bears, New Jersey Jets
7 years— Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers, Denver Broncos

Tweet of the Day
“Will y’all stop @’n me to tell the Colts to get Lamar (Jackson). I have no way of making your wish come true. Hell… I’m still trying to get my kids to listen to me… Let alone a organization.”
Former Colts WR Reggie Wayne

Saturday’s quiz
What was the most points Michael Jordan scored in an NBA game?

Friday’s quiz
In the movie Bull Durham, Timothy Robbins played a minor league pitcher; his character Nuke LaLoosh wore number 37.

Thursday’s quiz
2014 was the last time the national championship game in college basketball didn’t have a #1-seed playing in it; #7-seed UConn beat #8-seed Kentucky in the final that year.

***********************************************************

Saturday’s Den: Random stuff with the weekend here……..

— Over the last 30 years, the underdog is 11-8-1 ATS in Final Four games that didn’t have a #1-seed in the game. There are no #1-seeds in this year’s Final Four.

— Last time the Final Four wasn’t in a domed stadium was 1996, when Rick Pitino’s Kentucky team won the national title in the Meadowlands Arena in New Jersey.

— North Texas 68, UAB 61
Good news for North Texas: they won the NIT championship, finished 31-7.

Bad news for North Texas: about 10 minutes after the game ended, coach Grant McCasland bolted Denton to become the new head coach at Texas Tech- he got a 6-year contract.

McCasland went 135-65 in six years at North Texas; his career record is 211-89— he won a junior college national title at Midland College in Texas in 2007.

With modern basketball the way it is, with so much roster turnover every season, guys who have coached in junior college have an advantage— they’re used to re-stocking their rosters a lot.

— North Texas promoted associate head coach Ross Hodge to head coach.

— Other college hoop coaching stuff:
South Florida hired Kennesaw State coach Amir Abdur-Rahim to be its new coach. Kennesaw State was 26-9 this past season, their first winning season in 18 years at the D-I level.

Cal Bears hired Utah Valley coach Mark Madsen as its new coach; Madsen is a Stanford alum. Cal/Stanford have been arch-rivals forever, making Madsen an interesting hire.

— Kentucky became the 37th state to legalize sports betting.

— Thursday night, major league teams stole 21 bases in 23 tries, a huge increase over last year.

— Colorado Rockies had 17 hits Thursday night; they also struck out 17 times, the first time in the last 100 years that a team had 17+ hits, 17+ strikeouts in a 9-inning game.

— Angels are paying Shohei Ohtani $30M this season; he is making another $40M from off-field endorsements.

— Teams with the oldest rosters in the major leagues:
Mets, Braves, Padres, Red Sox

— Teams with the youngest rosters in the major leagues:
Guardians, Rays, Orioles, Tigers

— Some gamblers prefer to bet on first 5-inning outcomes in baseball, instead of the 9-inning income. People at SouthPoint Casino in Las Vegas estimated 20% of their baseball action on Opening Day was 5-inning wagering.

— Was watching a G-League game on ESPN2 the other day; every college freshman who thinks he can play in the NBA next year should watch these games- it ain’t easy to make an NBA roster. Sometimes staying in school and developing your skills more can enhance your value in the long run.

— Sacramento Kings will be in the NBA playoffs this year, for first time since 2006.

— Philadelphia Flyers scored four goals Thursday, on only 11 shots on goal, the 5th time ever an NHL team scored 4+ goals on 11 or fewer shots.

— This week at the NFL meetings in Arizona, someone asked Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel about the $6B price tag on the Washington Commanders, where McDaniel worked as an assistant coach 10 years ago.

McDaniel replied “Wow, the organization is worth that much? And I couldn’t get free coffee?”

Hard to believe that an NFL franchise would charge its coaches for coffee.

— Over the last 10 years, I-AA North Dakota State has had two QB’s drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft, Carson Wentz/Trey Lance.

Over the last 10 years, the entire Big 14 Conference has also had two QB’s drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft— Justin Fields, Dwayne Haskins

Since 2013, the ACC has had eight QB’s drafted in the first round.

— Kansas Jayhawks hired Illinois special teams coach Sean Snyder as an special assistant to head coach Lance Leipold; this is significant because Snyder is the son of Bill Snyder, the legendary former coach at Kansas State— K-State’s football stadium is named after Bill Snyder.

Unusual for a team to hire someone so closely connected to its arch-rival.

— There is a commercial running on TV advertising some kind of sparkling energy drink, with lot of young, attractive people skiing while drinking the product.

Long time ago, my cousin took me skiing a couple of times; once at Hunter Mountain in the Catskills, the other time I can’t remember where it was. I wasn’t a good skier. I was good at sitting at the bar in the lounge and listening to people tell stories about skiing.

Loved the chairlift, that was fun, but after the chairlift, it was all downhill.

 

[CNOTES]

SATURDAY, APRIL 1​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
FAU at SDSU	06:09 PM	SDSU -2.5 O 131.5	+500 +500
MIA at CONN	08:49 PM	CONN -5.5 O 149.0	+500 +500

 

[CNOTES]

Pending Picks​

Date	League	Game	Score	Status	Pick
Apr 1, 2023	NCAAB	Florida Atlantic San Diego St.	- -	06:09 PM	SDSU -2.5

 

[CNOTES]

Completed Picks​

Past Completed Picks

Date	W-L-T	%	Units	Record
04/01/2023	2-2-0	50.00%	-100	Detail

 

[CNOTES]

BEST BETS FOR APRIL

Completed Picks​

Date	League	Game	Score	Pick	Outcome
Apr 1, 2023	NCAAB	Florida Atlantic San Diego St.	71 72	SDSU -2.5	Loss

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday’s 6-pack
Top six players in the transfer portal:
— Hunter Dickinson, Michigan to ????
— Kel’el Ware, Oregon to ????
— Kerr Kriisa, Arizona to ????
— Sahvir Wheeler, Kentucky to ????
— Ace Baldwin, VCU to ???? (Penn State, where his old coach is now???)
— Caleb Love, North Carolina, to ????

Tweet of the Day
“It takes years to become an overnight success.”
Harvey Mackay

Sunday’s quiz
Jamie Foxx’s character Willie Beamon played QB for the Miami Sharks in Any Given Sunday; what number did Beamon wear for the Sharks?

Saturday’s quiz
69 was the most points Michael Jordan scored in an NBA game, on March 28, 1990 against the Cavaliers. He also had 18 rebounds, six assists and four steals in that game.

Friday’s quiz
In the movie Bull Durham, Timothy Robbins played a minor league pitcher; his character Nuke LaLoosh wore number 37.

******************************************************

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday……

— Went to McDonald’s for lunch Saturday, first time I had been there in over a year, which is surprising, now that I think of it. There were seven cars backed up at the drive-thru line, and it was a great day here in upstate New York, 65-70 degrees, so I parked the car and went inside to get my lunch.

Never looked at the menu on the wall, just ordered what I always get, two fish sandwiches and a vanilla milkshake— it costs $19.00 now!!!! Freakin’ fast food has outpriced itself; this was the last time they’ll see me for a long time. Milkshake was really good, though.

— San Diego State 72, Florida Atlantic 71
Lamont Butler hit an 18-foot jumper from right baseline at buzzer for the win.
FAU led 56-42 with 13:53 left in the game.
Aztecs made 9-18 shots on the arc, only 13-22 on foul line.

— Florida Atlantic finishes a great season 35-4; they’re moving into the AAC next season, for football reasons. Coach Dusty May said this week that teams are already trying to poach FAU’s players; we’ll see if they can keep their squad together. Going to college in Miami has to have its advantages.

Some good news for the Owls; May will coach FAU next season and is set to sign a lucrative long-term contract to stay with the school.

— UConn 72, Miami 59
UConn won its five NCAA tourney games by 24-15-23-28-13 points.
Huskies ended first half on an 18-5 run, after score had been tied 19-19.
Miami shot only 32.3% from the floor.

— Early pointspread on the national title game was UConn, minus 6, but as I type this, it has already been bet up to 7.5 or 8.

— Last 17 years, San Francisco Giants have started 17 different left fielders on Opening Day:
2007— Barry Bonds……. 2008— Dave Roberts
2009— Fred Lewis……..2010— Mark DeRosa
2011— Pat Burrell………2012— Aubrey Huff
2013— Andres Torres……2014— Mike Morse
2015— Nori Aoki………2016— Angel Pagan
2017— Jarrett Parker……….2018— Hunter Pence
2019— Connor Joe……….2020— Alex Dickerson
2021— Austin Slater……….2022— Joc Pederson
2023— Blake Sabol

— Dodgers 10, Arizona 1— Trayce Thompson (Klay’s brother) hit three homers, knocked in eight runs.

— Red Sox 9, Orioles 8— Leading 8-7 in last inning, Baltimore’s left fielder dropped an easy fly ball that would’ve ended the game, then Adam Duvall hit a walk-off homer to send the fans home happy.

— Cardinals 4, Blue Jays 1— Flaherty threw five no-hit innings, but he also walked seven guys, using 95 pitches to get his 15 outs.

— Angels 13, A’s 1— Shintaro Fujinami’s major league debut was…….a disaster. He got seven outs, he gave up eight runs. No bueno.

— Guardians 2, Mariners 0— Aaron Civale tossed seven shutout innings; bad day for Seattle— they put P Robbie Ray on the injured list with a flexor strain, whatever that is.

— Rangers 16, Phillies 3— Mitch Garver hit a couple homers; Texas scored 27 runs in winning their first two games. Rangers are second team since 1994 to score 10+ runs in both of their first two games of a season (’21 Royals are the other)

— Twins 2, Royals 0— Then there is Kansas City, which lost its first two games 2-0/2-0; Sonny Gray tossed five shutout innings in this game.

— Giants 7, Bronx 5— New York had bases loaded, one out in last inning, but Stanton grounded into a 6-4-3 double play to end the game. Brandon Crawford was 3-5 with three RBI for the Giants.

— Braves 7, Nationals 1— Matt Olson homered twice for Atlanta; Strider tossed six shutout innings. Braves outscored Washington 14-3 in winning their first two games.

— Brewers 3, Cubs 1— Game was scoreless after five, Cubs led 1-0 after seven on an Ian Happ homer, but Milwaukee scored three runs in 8th inning , their first runs in two games.

— Mets 6, Marlins 2— Mark Canha went 3-4, scored three runs, knocked in two more; rough day in Miami. Marlins lost, Hurricanes/FAU both lost in the Final Four.

— Reds 6, Pirates 2— Lodolo needed 109 pitches to get thru five innings; he got 22 whiffs on 48 swings, but he also allowed nine baserunners.

 

[CNOTES]

Monday’s 6-pack
Major league leaders in total bases, four days into the season:
19— Adam Duvall, Bos
18— CJ Cron, Colo
17— Yoan Moncada, CWS
14— Xander Bogaerts, SD
13— Wander Franco, TB
12— Trayce Thompson LA, Charlie Blackmon Colorado, Aaron Judge NYY

Tweet of the Day
“When I graduated college and I was looking for a grad assistant position, Lou Henson hired me. It showed the quality of character he had that he’s hiring the son of a rival of Big Ten school’s coach’s son. He didn’t worry about it. He didn’t care about that.”
San Diego State coach Brian Dutcher, whose dad Jim used to coach Minnesota

Monday’s quiz
Since 1985, what is the lowest seed to win the NCAA championship?

Sunday’s quiz
Jamie Foxx’s character Willie Beamon played QB for the Miami Sharks in Any Given Sunday; Beamon wore number 13 for the Sharks.

Saturday’s quiz
69 was the most points Michael Jordan scored in an NBA game, on March 28, 1990 against the Cavaliers. He also had 18 rebounds, six assists and four steals in that game.

************************************************

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Sunday

— They were talking on the Rockies-Padres game Saturday night how umpire Pat Hoberg is the best umpire in the major leagues on balls/strikes, he even graded out perfect in one game last year. In nine innings, he didn’t miss one pitch, which is pretty impressive.

— Red Sox 9, Orioles 5— Boston take two of three in this series, scoring nine runs in all three games; they are the third team in baseball history to score at 9+ runs in three straight games to start a season (’76 Reds/’78 Brewers).

— Rangers 2, Phillies 1— Bruce Bochy’s Rangers are 3-0; they scored 27 runs in their first two games, then won this one with pitching- their bullpen got 10 outs, allowing one baserunner. Phillies were 1-8 with runners in scoring position.

— Guardians 6, Mariners 5 (10)— Cleveland scored winning run on a throwing error by the catcher on a potential double play ball; Guardians went to Seattle and won three of four games to start the season.

— Mets 5, Marlins 1— Kodai Senga allowed one run in 5.1 IP, winning his first major league start; Tommy Pham went 3-4 with three RBI.

— Twins 7, Royals 4— Kansas City was 15th team since 1940 to get shut out in its first two games of a season; Joey Gallo hit homers off of two KC relievers to hand the Royals their third loss.

— Bronx 6, Giants 0— New York blanked the Giants twice this weekend; rookie Brito threw five shutout innings, needing only 76 pitches. Stanton hit a 485-foot homer, the second-longest of his career. Judge hit his second homer in three games.

— Arizona 2, Dodgers 1— Jake McCarthy knocked in the winning run with a 9th inning drag bunt as the Diamondbacks split four games in Chavez Ravine. Dodgers scored 18 runs in their two wins; both Arizona wins were by 2-1 scores.

— Angels 6, A’s 0— Tyler Anderson tossed six shutout innings; he looked like Steve Carlton against a feeble Oakland offense that scored three runs in three games this weekend.

— Cardinals 9, Blue Jays 4— St Louis got nine runs in 3.2 IP against Chris Bassitt; Nolan Gorman hit a couple of homers for the Redbirds. St Louis scored 22 runs in three games this weekend, but only won two of the three games.

— Nationals 4, Braves 1— MacKenzie Gore allowed one run in 5.1 IP, the Washington bullpen got the last 11 outs in their first win of the season. Nationals turned three double plays.

— White Sox 6, Astros 3— Teams split their 4-game series; Clevinger threw five shutout innings for the Pale Hose. Now would be a good time to play Houston, with Altuve/Brantley out of their lineup. Brantley should be back in 7-10 days, Altuve is out until June.

— Rays 5, Tigers 1— Tampa Bay outscored Detroit 21-3 in their 3-game sweep; Jeffrey Springs tossed six no-hit innings here, allowing only one baserunner.

— Hawks 132, Mavericks 130 OT— When Dallas traded for Kyrie Irving, they were 28-26; they won their first three games after the trade, but now they’re 37-42, having lost seven of their last eight games. Chemistry is a funny thing in basketball; you can’t buy it.

— Trailblazers 107, Timberwolves 105— Portland was down four starters; they had lost 11 of their last 12 games, but they pull the upset as 19.5-point underdogs, the 2nd-biggest NBA upset in the last 30 years (Orlando (+21) beat the Bulls in 1992).

— Edmonton Oilers’ Leon Draisaitl scored his 30th power play goal of the season Saturday, just the fifth NHL player to do that (Mario Lemieux did it twice).

— San Diego State is third team ever to win consecutive NCAA Tournament games by one point, joining St Joe’s in 1981, Loyola Chi in 2018 on that short list.

 

[Udog]

CONNECTICUT is 11-0 ATS (11 Units) after 3 consecutive non-conference games in the current season.




NCAAB
Dunkel

Monday, April 3

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Monday, April 3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN DIEGO ST (32 - 6) vs. CONNECTICUT (30 - 8) - 4/3/2023, 9:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CONNECTICUT is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in all games this season.
CONNECTICUT is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
CONNECTICUT is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
CONNECTICUT is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
CONNECTICUT is 15-1 ATS (+13.9 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
CONNECTICUT is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
CONNECTICUT is 15-1 ATS (+13.9 Units) in non-conference games this season.
CONNECTICUT is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all tournament games this season.
CONNECTICUT is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SAN DIEGO ST is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
SAN DIEGO ST is 60-40 ATS (+16.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, April 3

Last seven national championship games that didn’t have a #1-seed playing, the favorites went 5-2 ATS in those games.

Overall, underdogs are 5-3 ATS in last eight national championship games

San Diego State vs UConn
— San Diego State (32-6) ranked #14 by KenPom
— Tempo: #270
— Experience: #21
— Continuity: #39
— San Diego State won nine in row, 15 of last 16 games.
— San Diego State allowed 57.4 ppg in its last nine games.
— Aztecs have #20 eFG% defense in country.
— Aztecs are 18-6 against top 100 teams.
— San Diego State is 14-3 in games decoded by 7 or less points.
— San Diego State’s schedule, to this point: #35
— bench minutes: #30
— San Diego State’s best win: 71-64 over #4 Alabama

— UConn (30-8) ranked #1 by KenPom
— Tempo: #214
— Experience: #113
— Continuity: #248
— UConn won 14 of its last 16 games.
— Huskies won its five NCAA Tourney games by 24-15-23-28-13 points.
— UConn has #8 eFG% defense in country.
— UConn is 1-5 in games decided by 6 or less points.
— Huskies are 12-6 vs top 50 teams.
— UConn’s schedule, to this point: #25
— bench minutes: #224
— UConn’s best win: 82-67 over #2 Alabama

— UConn (+2) beat San Diego State 74-67 in a Sweet 16 game in 2011; UConn was a #3-seed, Aztecs were a #2-seed.

 

[CNOTES]

MONDAY, APRIL 3​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
SDSU at CONN	09:20 PM	SDSU +7.0 O 132.5	+500 +500

 

[CNOTES]

Pending Picks​

Date	League	Game	Score	Status	Pick
Apr 3, 2023	NCAAB	San Diego St. Connecticut	- -	09:20 PM	SDSU +7.0

Completed Picks​

Date	League	Game	Score	Pick	Outcome
Apr 2, 2023	NBA	Memphis Chicago	107 128	Over 229.0	Win
Apr 1, 2023	NCAAB	Florida Atlantic San Diego St.	71 72	SDSU -2.5	Loss

 

[CNOTES]

Completed Picks​

Past Completed Picks

Date	W-L-T	%	Units	Record
04/03/2023	1-1-0	50.00%	-50	Detail
04/01/2023	2-2-0	50.00%	-100	Detail
03/30/2023	1-1-0	50.00%	-50	Detail
03/28/2023	2-2-0	50.00%	-100	Detail
03/26/2023	4-0-0	100.00%	+2000	Detail
03/25/2023	2-2-0	50.00%	-100	Detail
03/24/2023	4-4-0	50.00%	-200	Detail
03/23/2023	3-5-0	37.50%	-1250	Detail
03/22/2023	0-2-0	0.00%	-1100	Detail
03/21/2023	5-3-0	62.50%	+850	Detail
03/20/2023	1-1-0	50.00%	-50	Detail
03/19/2023	13-23-0	36.11%	-6150	Detail
03/18/2023	10-18-0	35.71%	-4900	Detail
03/17/2023	15-16-1	48.44%	-1300	Detail
03/16/2023	15-17-0	46.88%	-1850	Detail
03/15/2023	10-10-0	50.00%	-500	Detail
03/14/2023	11-8-1	57.50%	+1100	Detail