NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 9
13 of Saturday’s best games
Notre Dame @ Syracuse
Notre Dame (4-3)
— Notre Dame won four of last five games, after an 0-2 start.
— Irish are 4-0 if they score 24+ points, 0-3 if they score less than 24.
— Notre Dame 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
— Notre Dame has 83 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Notre Dame has freshman backup QB; this is his 3rd start.
— Since 2017, Notre Dame is 3-0 ATS as a road dog (2-0 TY).
— Notre Dame is minus-7 in turnovers this year.
— Last 3+ years, Notre Dame is 23-11 ATS coming off a win.
Syracuse (6-1)
— Syracuse was outgained 450-291 in LW’s 27-21 loss at Clemson.
— Syracuse has close home wins over Purdue (32-29), Virginia (22-20).
— 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 120 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 13 starts
— Orange gave up 424 passing yards to Purdue, 293 rushing yards to Clemson.
— Syracuse is 4-1 ATS last five games as a home favorite.
— Last four Orange games stayed under the total.
— Syracuse is 14-8 ATS in last 21 ACC games.
— Syracuse is 10-5 ATS in last 15 games, coming off a loss.
— Notre Dame won last four series games (3-1 ATS)
— This is Notre Dame’s first game in Carrier Dome since 2003.
— Under is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Arkansas @ Auburn
Arkansas (4-3)
— Arkansas lost three of last four games, giving up 49-40-35 last three.
— They split two true road games: L40-17 at Miss State, W 52-35 at BYU
— Hogs gave up 555-568-471 TY the last three weeks.
— Arkansas scored 31-44-52 points in its I-A wins.
— 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 101 starts back on offensive line; soph QB has 15 starts
— Last 11 years, they’re 1-4-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Razorbacks are 12-9-1 ATS in last 22 SEC games (1-3 TY).
— Arkansas ran for 212+ yards in 6 of 7 games (187, Alabama)
— Under Pittman, Razorbacks are 8-4-1 ATS coming off a win.
Auburn (3-4)
— Auburn lost four of its last five games SU.
— Auburn gave up 41+ points in three of the four losses.
— Tigers are 3-0 allowing 16 or less points, 0-4 if they allow 21+.
— 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 120 starts back on offensive line (4 starters); soph QB has 3 starts
— Tigers are on 4th offensive coordinator the last four years.
— Auburn is 8-4 ATS last dozen games as a home underdog.
— Auburn has a minus-11 turnover ratio this season.
— Under Harsin, Tigers are 3-6 ATS coming off a loss.
— Auburn won last six meetings (5-1 ATS).
— Arkansas is 2-4 ATS in last six visits to Auburn.
— Over is 7-1 in last eight meetings.
Oklahoma @ Iowa State
Oklahoma (3-4)
— Oklahoma lost 3 of last 4 games, giving up 46.8 ppg.
— in those four games, Sooners allowed 548 yards/game.
— Sooners gained 701 yards (403 PY) in LY’s 52-42 win vs Kansas.
— Oklahoma is 1-4 ATS last five games as a road favorite.
— 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 125 starts back on offensive line; soph QB had 25 starts at UCF
— Oklahoma is 14-18 ATS in last 32 conference games.
— Three of their last four games went over the total.
— Since 2020, Sooners are 12-9 ATS coming off a win.
Iowa State (3-4)
— Iowa State lost last four games, by 1-3-7-3 points.
— In the four losses, Cyclones scored 16.3 ppg.
— In their wins, Cyclones allowed 10-7-10 points.
— 5 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
— 66 starts back on offensive line.
— Iowa State’s last three games stayed under the total.
— Under Campbell, they’re 9-3-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Under Campbell, they’re 21-11-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Under Campbell, Cyclones are 33-24-2 ATS in conference games.
— Oklahoma won 17 of last 19 meetings (2-5 ATS last seven)
— Sooners are 0-3 ATS in last three visits to Jack Trice Stadium.
— Over is 8-3 in last 11 series games.
Ohio State @ Penn State
Ohio State (7-0)
— Buckeyes scored 54.4 ppg in their last six games.
— Ohio State won its Big 14 games, by 31-39-29-44 points.
— 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 45 starts return on offensive line; soph QB has 12 starts
— Day is 24-13-1 ATS as a favorite, 4-3 TY.
— Last 10 years, Ohio State is 124-13 SU.
— Under Day, Ohio State is 18-10-1 ATS in conference games.
— OSU is 12-4 ATS in last 16 games coming off a win.
— Buckeyes’ last five games went over the total.
Penn State (6-1)
— Penn State won its four home games, by 36-19-10-28 points.
— Under Franklin, Nittany Lions are 3-5 ATS as home dogs.
— Penn State’s only loss was 41-17 (+7) at Michigan.
— Nittany Lions are 5-7 ATS last 12 games coming off a win.
— Penn State has 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
— Penn State has 36 returning starts on offensive line.
— Penn State has a senior QB, with 33 starts.
— Penn State is 14-16-1 ATS in last 31 conference games.
— Penn State threw ball for 304 yards LW; big improvement.
— Ohio State won five in row, nine of last ten series games.
— Buckeyes are 1-3 ATS in last four visits to Happy Valley.
— Last four meetings stayed under the total.
Oklahoma State @ Kansas State
Oklahoma State (6-1)
— OSU is 3-1 in Big X games, losing 43-40 at TCU.
— Cowboys scored 41.7 ppg in its I-A games.
— OSU split its two road games, W36-25 at Baylor, L40-43 at TCU
— OSU gave up 457-527-510-523 total yards in its Big X games.
— 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 55 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 32 starts
— Since 2018, State is 8-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— OSU is 12-4 ATS last 16 games coming off a win.
— Since 2018, Cowboys are 20-9-1 ATS in Big X games.
— Five of their six I-A games went over the total.
Kansas State (5-2)
— K-State is 3-1 in Big X, losing 38-28 at TCU last week.
— K-State led that game 28-17 at half, didn’t score in 2nd half.
— Under Klieman, Wildcats are 7-6 ATS as a home favorite.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 50 starts back on offensive line; senior QB had 38 starts at Nebraska
— Under Klieman, K-State is 9-6 ATS coming off a loss.
— Last 4+ years, K-State is 26-14 ATS in conference games.
— First five games, K-State was +9 in turnovers; last two games, minus-3.
— Three of Wildcats’ last four games went over the total.
— Oklahoma State won last three series games, by 11-2-13 points.
— Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in last five visits to the Little Apple.
— Under is 3-1 in last four meetings.
Florida vs Georgia (@ Jacksonville)
Florida (4-3)
— Gators allowed 26-38-45 points in their losses.
— This is only Florida’s second game away from home.
— Gators (+11) lost 38-33 at Tennessee, in only road tilt.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 98 starts back on offensive line (4 starters); soph QB has 1 start
— Gators are 7-5-1 ATS last 13 games coming off a loss.
— Since 2017, Florida is 2-9 ATS on neutral fields.
— In his career, Napier is 9-3-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last three games, Florida ran ball for 274-231-210 yards.
Georgia (7-0)
— Dawgs better not look ahead to next week’s game with Tennessee.
— Five of their seven wins are by 32+ points.
— 7 starters back on offense, 3 on defense.
— 62 starts back on offensive line; senior QB has 17 starts
— Smart is 19-7 ATS as a favorite away from home.
— Since 2017, Dawgs are 31-20 ATS in SEC games.
— Since 2017, Georgia 38-22 ATS coming off a win.
— Dawgs won last two games, 42-10/55-0.
— Five of last six Georgia games stayed under the total.
— This is most points Georgia has been favored by in this series.
— Georgia won/covered four of last five meetings.
— Under is 7-3-1 in last 11 series games.
Cincinnati @ Central Florida
Cincinnati (6-1)
— Bearcats won last six games, since 31-24 loss to Arkansas.
— Under Fickell, Cincy is 8-5 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last three games, Bearcats allowed 24-21-24 points.
— 8 starters back on offense; 5 on defense; 107 starts back on OL
— junior QB started 11 games at Eastern Michigan LY; he was backup here in ’19/’20.
— Last 4+ years, Bearcats are 50-8 SU
— Cincy is 14-11-2 ATS last 27 games coming off a win.
— Cincy is 14-12-1 ATS in last 27 AAC games.
— Bearcats’ last three games stayed under the total.
Central Florida (5-2)
— UCF won four of its last five games.
— Knights were held to 14-13 points in their losses.
— 9 starters back on offense; 8 on defense
— 132 starts back on OL
— junior QB started nine games at Ole Miss
— Last 2+ years, Knights are 4-9 ATS as a home favorite.
— Malzahn is 25-32-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last 3+ years, UCF is 3-8 ATS coming off a loss.
— Five of last six UCF games stayed under the total.
— Cincinnati won last three meetings, scoring 56-36-27 points.
— Bearcats are 0-3 ATS (1-2 SU) in last three trips to UCF.
— Last two meetings were high-scoring; 56-21/36-33
Kentucky @ Tennessee
Kentucky (5-2)
— Kentucky was held to 19-14 points in its losses.
— Kentucky is 1-1 on road; W26-16 Florida, LA19-22 Ole Miss
— Wildcats ran ball for 239 yards LW (previous high TY, 121)
— 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 45 starts back on offensive line; junior QB 13 starts
— Kentucky covered its last six games as road underdogs
— Last 4+ years, they’re 14-6-1 ATS as an underdog overall.
— Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in last five games coming off a loss.
— Under is 5-1 in Kentucky games this season.
Tennessee (7-0)
— Tennessee is scoring 47.7 ppg against I-A opponents.
— Vols have thrown ball for 325+ yards in five of six I-A tilts.
— Vols beat Alabama 52-49 two weeks ago, beat I-AA team LW.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 91 starts back on offensive line (4 starters); senior QB has 11 starts
— Vols are 5-3 ATS last eight games as a home favorite.
— In his career, Heupel is 14-11 ATS as a home favorite.
— Tennessee ran ball for 227-263-182 yards in first three SEC games.
— Vols covered five of six I-A games this season.
— Tennessee is 22-3 in last 25 series games (3-2 last five)
— Wildcats are 2-5 ATS last seven visits to Knoxville.
— Three of last four meetings stayed under the total.
Michigan State @ Michigan
Michigan State (3-4)
— Spartans lost four of last five games, giving up 35.4 ppg.
— Last four games, MSU allowed 528.5 yards/game.
— 5 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 90 starts return on offensive line; soph QB has 14 starts
— Spartans scored 35-52-34 points in their three wins.
— All four of their losses are by 11+ points.
— State is 15-22-1 ATS in last 38 conference games.
— MSU is 3-7-1 ATS last 11 games as a road underdog.
— Spartans ran ball for 57.2 yards/game last five games.
Michigan (7-0)
— Michigan has conference wins by 7-13-21-24 points.
— Maryland (397) is only team that gained more than 281 yards vs Michigan
— Wolverines ran for 418 yards in last game (41-17 vs Penn State)
— 9 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 85 starts return on offensive line; soph QB has 15 starts
— Wolverines are 9-2 ATS last 11 games as a favorite.
— Michigan is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home games.
— Michigan is 15-12-1 ATS in last 28 games coming off a win.
— State is 10-4 SU in last 14 meetings; they were underdog in last seven.
— Spartans are 6-1 ATS in last seven visits to Ann Arbor.
— Under is 9-4 in last thirteen series games.
Ole Miss @ Texas A&M
Ole Miss (7-1)
— Ole Miss lost 45-20 at LSU LW, their first loss of season.
— QB Dart got banged up last week (check status).
— Rebels gave up 301/252 rushing yards in last two games.
— Rebels are 4-2 ATS last six games as a road favorite.
— In his college career, Kiffin is 14-15 ATS as a road favorite.
— 5 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 111 starts back on offensive line; soph QB started 3 games at USC.
— Last three games, Ole Miss allowed 28-34-45 points.
— Rebels are 10-4 ATS in last 14 games coming off a loss.
Texas A&M (3-4)
— Aggies lost last three games, all on road, giving up 42-24-30 points.
— A&M hasn’t scored more than 24 points in any I-A game TY.
— A&M’s I-A wins: 17-9 vs Miami, 23-21 vs Arkansas.
— Aggies lost 30-24 at South Carolina LW; they outgained Gamecocks, 398-286
— 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 37 starts back on offensive line; soph QB started 14 games at LSU.
— Under Fisher, Aggies are 3-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Under Fisher, A&M is 20-16 ATS in SEC games.
— Under Fisher, A&M is 10-6 ATS coming off a loss.
— Texas A&M won/covered three of last four series games.
— Ole Miss covered two of last three visits to College Station.
— Under is 6-1 in last seven meetings.
Baylor @ Texas Tech
Baylor (4-3)
— Baylor is 0-3 SU this year when it allows 26+ points.
— Bears scored 34.6 ppg in their last five games.
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— You’re reading armadillosports.com
— 119 starts back on offensive line; soph QB has 2 starts
— Baylor is 6-3 ATS last nine games as a road underdog.
— Bears are 22-11 ATS last 33 games coming off a win.
— Baylor is 20-13 ATS in its last 33 conference games.
— Last four Baylor games went over the total.
Texas Tech (4-3)
— Red Raiders split their four Big X games; average total, 66.5.
— Texas Tech’s I-A wins: 33-30 Houston, 37-34 Texas, 48-10 West Va.
— Last four games, Tech gained average of 518.3 yards/game.
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 124 starts back on offensive line; junior QB had 11 starts at Oregon
— Red Raiders allowed 426+ total yards in three of last four games.
— Tech is 1-8 ATS in last nine games coming off a win.
— Red Raiders are 4-0 scoring 33+ points, 0-3 when they don’t.
— Three of their last four games went over the total.
— Baylor won eight of last 11 meetings.
— Bears are 2-4 ATS in last six visits to Lubbock.
— Four of last five series games stayed under total.
Pittsburgh @ North Carolina
Pittsburgh (4-3)
— Pitt is 3-0 vs I-A teams if it scores 34+ points, 0-3 if it doesn’t.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— Panthers have 145 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB started 26 games at USC.
— Pitt is 10-6 ATS in last 16 games as a road underdog.
— Pitt is 1-1 on road; won 34-13 at Western Michigan, lost 24-10 at Louisville.
— Since 2016, Pitt is 32-22-1 ATS in ACC games, 1-2 TY.
— Pitt was minus-3 in turnovers in two of its last three games.
North Carolina (6-1)
— UNC won its last three games, last two 27-24/38-35.
— Tar Heels gave up 235+ rushing yards in four of last six games.
— Tar Heels are scoring 39.3 ppg against I-A opponents.
— 5 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 104 starts back on offensive line; they have a redshirt freshman QB.
— UNC is 1-10 SU last 11 times they scored less than 34 points.
— Tar Heels are 9-5 ATS last 14 games as home favorites.
— Carolina is 6-12-1 ATS last 19 games coming off a win.
— Pitt won last two series games, 30-23/34-27.
— Panthers are 1-4 ATS in last five visits to Chapel Hill.
— Over is 6-2 in last eight meetings.
Stanford @ UCLA
Stanford (3-4)
— Stanford won its last two games, 16-14/15-14, after a 1-4 start.
— Stanford allowed 38.5 ppg in its losses, 14-14 in I-A wins.
— Cardinal is minus-9 in turnovers this season.
— 10 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 104 starts back on offensive line (5 starters); soph QB has 9 starts
— 14-23 SU last 3+ years (71-24 the seven years before that)
— Since 2017, they’re 5-11 ATS as a road underdog.
— Cardinal are 12-17 ATS last 29 games coming off a win.
UCLA (6-1)
— UCLA scored 30+ points in every game this season.
— Bruins allowed 31+ points in four of last five games.
— 6 starters back on offense, 2 on defense
— 84 starts back on offensive line; senior QB has 35 starts
— Under Kelly, they’re 5-10 ATS as a home favorite.
— In his career, Kelly is 19-20-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— UCLA is 13-7 ATS in last 20 Pac-12 games.
— Bruins are 5-2 ATS last seven games coming off a loss.
— All six of their I-A games went over the total.
— Stanford won 12 of last 14 meetings (11-3 ATS)
— Cardinal covered its last six visits to Pasadena.
— Under is 12-7 in last 19 series games.
