NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 5
Top 13 games of the week
Saturday’s games
USC (-6.5) @ Illinois
USC (4-0, 2-0)
Trojans (-20) won its only road game, 33-17 at Purdue.
USC has scored 33-45 points in its Big 18 games.
Trojans gained 460-517 yards in its Big 18 games.
USC has 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Trojans have 75 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Maiava started 15 games the last two years.
Under Riley, USC is 3-10 ATS as a road favorite.
In his career, Riley is 9-22-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Riley, USC is 12-18 ATS in conference games.
In his career, Riley is 36-41-1 ATS in conference games.
Three of their four games went over the total.
Illinois (3-1, 0-1)
Illinois lost its Big 18 opener 63-10 at Indiana.
Illini beat Duke 45-19, Western Michigan 38-0.
Illinois has 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Illini has 193 returning starts on OL.
Senior QB Altmyer has 23 career starts.
Under Bielema, Illinois is 5-5 ATS as home underdogs.
In his career, Bielema is 16-15 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Bielema, Illinois is 21-16 ATS in Big 18 games.
In his career, Bielema is 73-60-2 ATS in conference games.
Under Bielema, Illinois is 11-9 ATS in games coming off a loss.
These teams haven’t met since 2007.
Notre Dame (-3.5) @ Arkansas
Notre Dame (1-2)
Notre Dame lost 27-24 at Miami, 41-40 to Texas A&M
Notre Dame pounded Purdue 56-30 in its last game.
Last two games, Notre Dame allowed 360-303 passing yards
Irish have 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Notre Dame has 54 returning starts on offensive line.
Frosh QB Carr is grandson of former Michigan coach Lloyd Carr.
Last 2+ years, Notre Dame is 22-9-1 ATS in all games.
Under Freeman, ND is 5-2 ATS as a road favorite.
All three Notre Dame games went over the total.
Arkansas (2-2)
Arkansas lost its last two games, 41-35/32-31.
Hogs are 8-6 ATS in last 14 games coming off a loss.
Razorbacks have 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Razorbacks have 101 returning starts on the offensive line;
Senior QB Green has started 35 college games.
Under Pittman, Arkansas is 19-12 ATS as an underdog.
Under Pittman, Razorbacks are 8-5 ATS as a home dog.
Under Pittman, Arkansas is 10-11 ATS in non-conference games.
All three of Arkansas’ I-A games went over the total.
These teams haven’t met in the last 25 years.
Ohio State (-8.5) @ Washington
Ohio State (3-0)
Ohio State nipped Texas 14-7, then pounded two stiffs.
Ohio State has 6 starters back on offense, 3 on defense.
Buckeyes have 85 returning starts on the offensive line.
Frosh QB Sayin is 56-71/779 passing (8 TD’s, 3 INT’s)
Under Day, OSU is 38-26-3 ATS as a favorite.
Under Day, OSU is 12-10-3 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Day, Buckeyes are 31-21-2 ATS in conference games.
Buckeyes were outgained 336-203 in the Texas game.
Washington (3-0)
Washington scored 38-59 points in its two I-A games.
Huskies have 5 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Huskies have 54 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Williams started two games at last year.
Washington gained 509-471 yards vs Colorado St/Wazzu.
Since 2018, Washington is 22-38 ATS in conference games.
In his career, Fisch is 20-17 ATS in conference games.
In his career, Fisch is 9-4 ATS as a home underdog.
These teams haven’t met since 2018.
LSU @ Ole Miss (-1.5)
LSU (4-0, 1-0)
LSU won 17-10 at Clemson, beat Florida 20-10.
LSU has 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
LSU has 66 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Nussmeier threw for 4,052 yards LY (29 TD’s, 12 INTs)
In its three I-A games, LSU has allowed only 56 rushing yards/game.
In his career, Kelly is 21-13-3 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Kelly, LSU is 2-2 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Kelly, LSU is 12-13-1 ATS in SEC games.
Under Kelly, LSU is 15-13-1 ATS in games coming off a win.
Ole Miss (2-0)
Ole Miss pounded Georgia State 63-7, won 30-23 at Kentucky.
Rebels have 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Rebels have 78 returning starts on offensive line.
New QB Simmons is 33-55/576 passing this season.
Under Kiffin, Rebels are 22-19-1 ATS as a favorite.
Under Kiffin, Rebels are 6-2 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Kiffin is 37-32-3 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Kiffin, Ole Miss is 17-23-2 ATS in SEC games.
LSU won seven of last nine series games.
LSU lost its last two visits to Oxford, 55-49/31-17.
Over is 6-2 in last eight meetings.
Auburn @ Texas A&M (-6.5)
Auburn (3-1, 0-1)
Auburn lost SEC opener 24-17 at Oklahoma last week.
Tigers scored 38-42-31 points in their three wins.
Auburn has 9 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Tigers have 140 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Arnold started 10 games for Oklahoma.
Tigers ran ball for 242 yards/game in wins, 67 last week.
Under Freeze, Auburn is 3-5 ATS as a road underdog.
In his career, Freeze is 19-11 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Freeze, Auburn is 8-9 ATS in conference games.
Auburn is 11-13 ATS in last 24 games coming off a loss.
Texas A&M (3-0)
A&M scored 42-44-41 points in its three wins
Aggies were even in turnovers in all three games.
Aggies have 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
A&M has 156 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Reed started eight games last year.
Under Elko, A&M is 2-6 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Elko is 9-8 ATS as a home favorite.
Aggies are 7-11-3 ATS in last 21 games coming off a win
A&M is 8-13-3 ATS in last 24 SEC games.
In his career, Elko is 13-11 ATS in conference games.
Teams split last six series games.
Auburn lost 27-10/20-3 in last two visits to A&M
Under is 3-1 in last four meetings.
Indiana (-7.5) @ Iowa
Indiana (4-0)
Hoosiers won their I-A games, 27-14/56-9/63-10.
Indiana ran for 312 yards vsBig 18 rival Illinois LW
Hoosiers have 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Hoosiers have 80 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Mendoza started 19 games at California.
Under Cignetti, Indiana is 3-0 ATS as a road favorite.
In his career, Cignetti is 9-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Indiana is +5 in turnovers in its I-A games.
In his career, Cignetti is 19-7 ATS in Big 18 games.
Under Cignetti, Indiana is 10-3 ATS in games coming off a win.
Last three Indiana games went over the total.
Iowa (3-1)
Iowa won 38-28 at Rutgers, lost 16-13 at Iowa State.
Rutgers passed for 330 yards against Iowa last week.
Hawkeyes have 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Hawkeyes have 85 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Gronowski started 55 games at I-AA South Dakota State.
Since 2018, Hawkeyes are 1-3 ATS as a home underdog.
Since 2015, Hawkeyes are 20-8-1 ATS as an underdog.
In his career, Ferentz is 34-24-1 ATS as an underdog.
Since 2018, Iowa is 15-11-2 ATS in conference games.
Iowa is 23-17-1 ATS in last 41 games coming off a win.
Hawkeyes won eight of last nine series games.
These teams haven’t met since 2021; Cignetti wasn’t at Indiana yet.
Over is 9-3 in last 12 meetings.
Arizona @ Iowa State (-6.5)
Arizona (3-0)
Arizona drubbed Hawai’i 40-6, beat K-State 23-17.
Wildcats ran for 234 yards in their Big X opener.
Arizona has 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
Wildcats have 84 starts back on offensive line.
Junior QB Fifita has 21 career starts
Since 2015, Arizona is 14-26 ATS as a road underdog.
In his career, Brennan is 17-16 ATS as a road underdog.
Since 2019, Arizona is 21-29 ATS in conference games.
In his career, Brennan is 34-29-1 ATS in conference games.
Arizona is 7-11 ATS in last 18 games coming off a win.
Iowa State (4-0)
Iowa State won its three I-A games, by 3-3-8 points.
Cyclones have 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Cyclones have 105 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Becht started 13 games last season.
In his career, Campbell is 47-49-2 ATS as a favorite.
Under Campbell, ISU is 20-22 ATS as a home favorite.
Last 2+ years, ISU is 6-5 ATS as a home favorite.
Cyclones are 12-8 ATS in last 20 Big X games.
Under is 3-0 in Iowa State’s I-A games.
These teams haven’t met in the last 25 years.
Oregon @ Penn State (-3.5)
Oregon (4-0)
Oregon’s three I-A wins were by a combined score of 144-24
Oregon has 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Ducks have 124 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Moore started 5 games at UCLA in 2023.
Ducks won their only road game, 34-14 at Northwestern.
Since 2019, Oregon is 4-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Lanning, Ducks are 3-0 ATS overall as an underdog.
In its three I-A wins, Oregon ran ball for 256 yards/game.
Penn State (3-0)
Penn State beat Nevada 46-11/FIU 34-0, in I-A games.
Nittany Lions have 9 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Penn State has 83 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Allar started 29 games last two years.
Penn State is 16-9-1 ATS last 26 games as a home favorite.
Under Franklin, Penn State is 36-25-3 ATS as a home favorite.
Nittany Lions are 16-11-1 ATS in last 28 conference games.
Penn State is 18-16-1 ATS in last 35 games coming off a win.
Last year, Oregon (-3.5) beat Penn State 45-37 in Big 18 title game.
That is team’s only meeting in last 25 years.
Alabama @ Georgia (-3.5)
Alabama (2-1)
Alabama lost its only road game, 31-17 at Florida State
Alabama was held under 100 yards rushing in 2 of its 3 games.
Alabama has 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Crimson Tide has 95 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Simpson threw 25 passes last year.
Alabama is a road underdog for first time since 2015.
Crimson Tide outgained Wisconsin 454-209 in 38-14 win.
In his career, DeBoer is 5-1 ATS as an underdog.
Crimson Tide is 11-6 ATS in its last 17 SEC games.
Over is 3-0 in Alabama’s games this season.
Georgia (3-0)
Georgia beat Marshall 45-7, Tennessee 44-41 in I-A games.
Dawgs gained 488-502 yards in their I-A games.
Dawgs have 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Georgia has 35 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Stockton has three career starts.
Georgia is 8-17-1 ATS last 26 games as a home favorite.
Last two years, Georgia is 7-12 ATS in SEC games.
In his career, Smart is 19-33-1 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Smart is 45-38 ATS in SEC games.
Dawgs are 5-17-1 ATS in last 23 games coming off a win.
Alabama won nine of last ten series games.
This is Alabama’s first visit to Georgia since 2015.
BYU (-6.5) @ Colorado
BYU (3-0)
BYU beat Stanford 27-3, ECU 34-13 in its I-A games.
BYU was +5 in turnovers in those games.
Cougars have 5 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Broncos have 61 starts returning on the offensive line.
QB Bachmeier is 42-63/518 passing (4 TD’s, no INTs)
BYU is 4-2 ATS last six games as a road favorite.
In his career, coach Sitake is 11-13 ATS as a road favorite.
BYU is 10-9 ATS in its two years on conference play.
BYU is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games coming off a win.
Colorado (2-2)
Colorado scored 20-20 points in losses, 31-37 in wins.
Buffs gave up 320-209 rushing yards in their losses.
Colorado has 3 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Colorado has 112 returning starts on offensive line, mostly transfers.
Senior QB Staub started 29 games at Liberty.
Favorites are 4-0 ATS in Colorado games this season.
Sanders is 9-5 ATS as an underdog with Colorado.
Under Sanders, Colorado is 4-1 ATS as a home underdog.
In 2+ years under Sanders, Colorado is +24 in turnovers.
Under Sanders, Colorado is 13-6 ATS in conference games.
Last year, BYU (+3.5) beat Colorado 36-14 in the Alamo Bowl.
That was teams’ only meeting in last 25 years.
