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[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 3

Saturday’s games
Georgia (-4) @ Tennessee
Georgia (2-0)
Georgia beat Marshall 45-7, a I-AA team 28-6.
Dawgs are 5-16-1 ATS in last 22 games coming off a win.
Dawgs have 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Georgia has 35 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Stockton has three career starts.


Last two years, Georgia is 1-6 ATS as a road favorite.
Last two years, Georgia is 7-11 ATS in SEC games.
In his career, Smart is 20-14 ATS as a road favorite.
In his career, Smart is 45-37 ATS in SEC games.


Tennessee (2-0)
Vols beat Syracuse 45-26, a I-AA team 72-17.
Last 3 years, Vols are 16-12 ATS in games coming off a win.
Tennessee has 5 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Vols have 46 returning starts on the offensive line;
Senior QB Aguilar started 24 games at Appalachian State.


Under Heupel, Tennessee is 2-4 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, Heupel is 3-4 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Heupel, Tennessee is 3-10 ATS as an underdog.
Under Heupel, Tennessee is 14-18 ATS in SEC games.


Georgia won last eight series games, covered last six.
Dawgs won/covered last four visits to Knoxville.
Over is 9-4 in last thirteen meetings.

Pittsburgh (-7.5) @ West Virginia
Pittsburgh (2-0)
Pitt beat a I-AA team 61-9. Central Michigan 45-17.
Panthers threw ball for 302/340 yards in those games.
Panthers have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Panthers have 78 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Holstein started 10 games last year.


Under Narduzzi, Pitt is 33-29-3 ATS as a favorite
Under Narduzzi, Pitt is 15-4 ATS as a road favorite
Under Narduzzi, Panthers are 19-23-2 ATS in non-conference games.
Pitt is 8-10 ATS in last 18 games coming off a win.


West Virginia (1-1)
WVU beat a I-AA team 45-3, lost 17-10 at Ohio U last week.
MAC’s Bobcats outgained West Virginia, 450-279
Mountaineers have 4 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Mountaineers have 57 returning starts on OL, mostly from transfers.
Junior QB Marchiol has 2 career starts.


Last four years, WVU was 5-7 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, Rich Rodriguez is 19-15 ATS as a home underdog.
Rodriguez was HC here from 2001-07; this is his first year back.
In his career, Rodriguez is 39-46 ATS as an underdog.


Home team won last three meetings, by 4-11-7 points.
Pitt lost five of its last six visits to Morgantown.


South Florida @ Miami (-17.5)
South Florida (2-0)
USF already has upset wins over Boise State/Florida.
Bulls have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
USF has 115 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Brown started five games last year.


Under Golesh, Bulls are 7-5 ATS as an underdog.
USF is 7-4 ATS last 11 games as a road underdog.
Under Golesh, Bulls are 9-3 ATS in non-conference games.
Both USF games this season stayed under the total.


Miami FL
Miami edged Notre Dame 27-24, beat a I-AA team 45-3.
Hurricanes outgained ND 324-314, were +2 in turnovers.
Miami has 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Hurricanes have 87 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Beck started 13 games for Georgia last year.


Under Cristobal, Miami is 6-9 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Cristobal is 18-32-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Cristobal, Miami is 8-12 ATS at home.
Under Cristobal, Miami is 8-7 ATS in non-league games.


Miami (-17) hammered USF 50-15 last year.
Hurricanes won/covered last four series games.


Arkansas @ Ole Miss (-6.5)
Arkansas (2-0)
Arkansas beat a I-AA team 52-7, beat Arkansas State 56-14.
Hogs are 6-10-1 ATS in last 17 games coming off a win.
Razorbacks have 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Razorbacks have 101 returning starts on the offensive line;
Senior QB Green has started 35 college games.
Under Pittman, Arkansas is 11-6 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Pittman, Razorbacks are 23-17-2 ATS in SEC games.


Ole Miss (2-0)
Ole Miss pounded Georgia State 63-7, won 30-23 at Kentucky.
Rebels have 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Rebels have 78 returning starts on offensive line.
New QB Simmons is 33-55/576 passing this season.


Under Kiffin, Rebels are 22-19-1 ATS as a favorite.
Under Kiffin, Rebels are 6-2 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Kiffin is 37-32-3 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Kiffin, Ole Miss is 17-23-2 ATS in SEC games.


Ole Miss won five of last seven series games.
Rebels pounded Arkansas 63-31 last year.
Arkansas is 10-2 ATS in last dozen meetings.
Over is 5-3 in last eight series games.


Florida @ LSU (-7)
Florida (1-1)
Gators beat a I-AA team, 55-0, got upset 18-16 by South Florida.
USF outgained Florida 391-355 last week.
Florida has 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Gators have 98 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Lagway started eight games last year.


Under Napier, Florida is 12-7 ATS as an underdog
In his career, Napier is 23-10-1 ATS as an underdog
Under Napier, Florida is 6-3 ATS as a road underdog
In his career, Napier is 14-6-1 ATS as an underdog
Under Napier, Florida is 14-10 ATS in SEC games.


LSU (2-0)
LSU won 17-10 at Clemson, beat Louisiana Tech 23-7.
LSU has 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
LSU has 66 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Nussmeier threw for 4,052 yards LY (29 TD’s, 12 INTs)


In his career, Kelly is 53-46-3 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Kelly, LSU is 11-6 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Kelly, LSU is 11-13-1 ATS in SEC games.
Under Kelly, LSU is 14-12-1 ATS in games coming off a win.


LSU won/covered five of last six series games.
Gators are 0-3 SU/ATS in last three visits to Baton Rouge.


Texas A&M @ Notre Dame (-6.5)
Texas A&M (2-0)
A&M beat UTSA 42-24, Utah State 44-22, both at home.
Aggies were even in turnovers in those two games.
Aggies have 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
A&M has 156 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Reed started eight games last year.


Since 2020, A&M is 1-4-2 ATS as a road underdog.
In his career, new HC Elko is 4-3 ATS as a road dog
Last three years, Aggies are 7-10-3 ATS in games coming off a win
A&M is 3-13 ATS in last 16 non-conference games.
In his career, Elko is 6-10 ATS in non-conference games.


Notre Dame (0-1)
Under Freeman, Notre Dame is 33-11 SU
Notre Dame lost its opener 27-24 at Miami.
ND was outgained 324-314; they were minus-2 in turnovers.
Irish have 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Notre Dame has 54 returning starts on offensive line.
Frosh QB Carr is grandson of former Michigan coach Lloyd Carr.
Last 2+ years, Notre Dame is 21-8-1 ATS in all games.
Under Freeman, ND is 9-8 ATS as a home favorite.


Notre Dame (+3) won 23-13 at Texas A&M last year.
Notre Dame outgained the Aggies, 356-246.


Vanderbilt @ South Carolina (-5.5)
Vanderbilt (2-0)
Vandy beat a I-AA team 45-3, won 44-20 at Virginia Tech.
Commodores outgained the Hokies 490-248 LW.
Commodores have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Commodores have 139 returning starts on OL; lot of transfers.
Senior QB Pavia has started 36 college games


Vandy is 8-2 ATS in last 10 games as an underdog.
Under Lea, Vandy is 13-7 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Lea, Vandy is 16-16 ATS in SEC games (6-2 LY)
Vandy is 4-11 ATS in last 15 games coming off a win.
Vanderbilt made a bowl LY, its first one since 2018.


South Carolina (2-0)
Gamecocks beat Virginia Tech 24-11, beat a I-AA team 38-10.
Carolina has 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Gamecocks have 78 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Sellers started 12 games last year.


Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 15-6 ATS as a favorite.
Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 18-14 ATS in SEC games.
Carolina is 9-5 ATS in last 14 games coming off a win.


South Carolina won 16 series games (11-5 ATS)
Commodores are 1-4 ATS in last five visits to Columbia.
Under is 7-3 in last ten meetings.


Duke @ Tulane (-1.5)
Duke (1-1)
Duke beat a I-AA team 45-17, lost 45-19 at home to Illinois.
QB Mensah threw for 723 yards in those two games.
Mensah started 13 games at Tulane.
Blue Devils have 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.


Duke has 37 returning starts on the offensive line.
Last three years, Duke is 10-7 ATS as an underdog.
In his career, Manny Diaz is 11-4 ATS as an underdog


Since 2020, Duke is 13-8 ATS in non-league games.
Duke is 8-4 ATS in last 12 games coming off a loss.


Tulane (2-0)
Tulane beat Northwestern 23-3, won 33-31 at South Alabama.
Tulane ran ball for 269/241 yards in those games.
Green Wave has 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Green Wave has 143 returning starts on offensive line.


Under Sumrall, Tulane is 4-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Sumrall is 43-14 ATS overall as a head coach.
Since 2019, Green Wave is 21-11 ATS as a home favorite.
Sumrall is 7-7 ATS in non-conference games.


Duke QB Mensah played for Tulane
Duke is paying him $4M this season. Seriously.


These teams haven’t met since 2015.


Air Force (-4.5) @ Utah State
Air Force (1-0)
Air Force won its opener 49-13 over a I-AA team.
Falcons gained 426 yards, threw only 9 passes the whole game.
Air Force has 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
Air Force has 30 starts back on offensive line.
Junior QB started one game last year


Last four years, Air Force is 9-4 ATS as a road favorite.
Flyboys are 17-14 ATS in last 31 Mountain West games.
Air Force is 8-4 ATS in last 12 games coming off a win.


Utah State (1-1)
Aggies beat UTEP 28-16, lost 44-22 at Texas A&M.
A&M ran ball for 235 yards in last week’s game.
Utah State has 2 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Aggies have 10 starts returning on offensive line.
Senior QB Barnes has 3 career starts.


Utah State has a new coach; Bronco Mendenhall.
In his career, Bronco Mendenhall is 12-10 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, Mendenhall is 68-62 ATS in conference games.
Aggies are 5-3 ATS last 8 games as a home underdog.
Aggies are 16-15-1 ATS in last 32 Mountain West games.


Teams split their last six meetings.
Air Force lost three of last five visits to Utah State.
Over is 5-2 in last seven series games.

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday, September 13​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
OKLA at TEM	12:00 PM	U 51.0	+500
CWM at UVA	12:00 PM	UVA -31.0	+500
MEM at TROY	12:00 PM	MEM -4.0	+500
ORE at NW	12:00 PM	ORE -26.5	+500
CLEM at GT	12:00 PM	GT +2.5 O 52.0	+500 +500
CMU at MICH	12:00 PM	CMU +28.0	+500
WIS at ALA	12:00 PM	ALA -19.0 U 46.0	+500 +500
USA at AUB	12:45 PM	O 54.5	+500
NWST at CIN	03:30 PM	CIN -48.0	+500
YSU at MSU	03:30 PM	MSU -23.0	+500
USC at PUR	03:30 PM	USC -20.5	+500
ORST at TTU	03:30 PM	TTU -23.5	+500
SMU at MOSU	03:30 PM	O 61.0	+500
WSU at UNT	03:30 PM	WSU +5.5 O 56.5	+500 +500
ISU at ARST	04:00 PM	O 56.0	+500
USF at MIA	04:30 PM	MIA -17.5	+500
MTU at NEV	05:00 PM	U 49.0	+500
FAU at FIU	06:00 PM	O 57.0	+500
MERR at KENN	06:00 PM	KENN -15.5	+500
PV at RICE	07:00 PM	RICE -28.0	+500
ODU at VT	07:00 PM	U 51.0	+500
WMU at ILL	07:00 PM	ILL -28.0	+500
FLA at LSU	07:30 PM	LSU -6.5 U 47.5	+500 +500
NMSU at LT	07:30 PM	U 43.0	+500
TAM at ND	07:30 PM	ND -6.5	+500
MASS at IOWA	07:30 PM	O 44.0	+500
VAN at SOCAR	07:45 PM	SOCAR -3.0 U 49.0	+500 +500
NAVY at TLSA	08:00 PM	U 52.0	+500
UTAH at WYO	08:00 PM	O 47.5	+500
AFA at USU	09:45 PM	USU +5.0	+500

 

[CNOTES]

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[CNOTES]

Sunday’s 6-pack:
Major league leaders in strikeouts:
228— Garrett Crochet, Bos
224— Tarik Skubal, Det
203— Paul Skenes, Pitt
201— Dylan Cease SD/Logan Webb SF
200— Jesus Luzardo, Phil
195— Zack Wheeler, Phil

Quote of the Day
“Unfortunately, he didn’t make the one before, but he had his head high. That’s the life of being a kicker, you know what I mean? I love the way he responded. He’ll continue to grow, and we have great trust in him. Unfortunately, he didn’t finish that one.”
Tennessee coach Josh Heupel, after a tough OT loss to Georgia

Sunday’s quiz
When the Rams beat Tennessee in Super Bowl XXXIV, who was the Titans’ QB?

Saturday’s quiz
When the Texas Rangers won the World Series two years ago, they beat Arizona.

Friday’s quiz
Washington Redskins coach Joe Gibbs won three Super Bowls, with three different QB’s; Joe Theismann, Doug Williams, Mark Rypien.

*********************************

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday……​

— Georgia 44, Tennessee 41, OT
Dawgs score TD in OT; they’ve beaten Vols nine times in a row.
Tennessee led 21-7 after the first quarter.
Vols missed a 43-yard FG with 0:03 left in regulation.

— Georgia Tech 24, Clemson 21
Yellow Jackets kicked a 55-yard FG at the gun for the win.
Tech QB King passed for 216 yards, ran for 103 more.
Clemson is is off to a disappointing 1-2 start.

— Ole Miss 41, Arkansas 35
Backup QB Chambliss (transfer from Ferris State) threw for 353 yards.
Ferris State won the Division II national title last year.
Arkansas was in Ole Miss red zone in last 2:00, but lost a fumble.

— Texas A&M 41, Notre Dame 40
Aggies threw an 11-yard TD pass on 4th-and-goal with 0:13 left.
Notre Dame missed PAT after TD that put them ahead 40-34.
Aggies’ QB Reed threw for 360 yards, two TD’s.

— West Virginia 31, Pittsburgh 24 OT
Pitt led 24-14 with 6:00 left in regulation.
WVU tied game on a TD with 0:11 left.
Mountaineers outgained Pitt, 434-349.

— Upsets of the Week:
New Mexico (+17.5) 35, UCLA 10
Delaware (+10.5) 44, UConn 41
Georgia Tech (+9.5) 24, Clemson 21
Middle Tennessee (+9.5) 14, Nevada 13
Old Dominion (+7.5) 45, Virginia Tech 26
West Virginia (+6.5) 31, Pittsburgh 24 OT
Texas A&M (+6.5) 41, Notre Dame 40
Bowling Green (+6.5) 23, Liberty 13
Vanderbilt (+5.5) 31, South Carolina 7

— Rangers 3, Mets 2
Mets led 2-0 after seven innings.
Texas has won six games in a row.
Mets have lost eight games in a row.
Juan Soto hit his 40th homer for the Mets.

— Milwaukee Brewers are first team to clinch a playoff spot this year; Brewers are in the playoffs for the 7th time in the last eight years.

— Famous birthdays, September 14th:
Larry Brown, 85
Alvin Scott, 70
Tim Wallach, 68
Stephen Bishop, 55
Tyler Perry, 55
David Bell, 53
Chad Bradford, 51
Brandon Hicks, 40
Deshaun Watson, 30
Bubba Chandler, 23

— LSU 20, Florida 10
LSU led 13-10 at half; they intercepted five passes.
LSU QB Nussmeier threw for 220 yards and a TD.
Florida outgained LSU 366-316, but the five INT’s were a killer.

— Vanderbilt 31, South Carolina 7
Commodores snapped a 16-game losing streak to South Carolina.
Vandy is 3-0 for the first time since 2017.
Gamecocks’ QB Sellers was KO’d in the 2nd quarter, didn’t return.

— Tulane 34, Duke 27
Duke QB Mensah passed for 313 yards, 3 TD’s against team he played for last year.
Tulane QB Retzlaff (transfer from BYU) passed for 245 yards, 10.7 yards/attempt.
Duke paid Mensah $4M to play for them this season.

— Iowa State 24, Arkansas State 16
Cyclones start season 4-0 for 2nd year in row; its the first time they’ve done that.
Iowa State ran ball 34 times for 187 yards.
Ark State had 10 penalties for 90 yards, Cyclones 3 for 31.

— Delaware 44, UConn 41, OT
Delaware gets its first I-A win as a I-A team.
Blue Hens kicked a 43-yard FG at the gun in regulation to force OT.
Delaware ran ball 45 times for 247 yards.

— Buffalo 31, Kent State 28
Buffalo threw a 22-yard TD pass with 1:03 left for the win.
Bulls’ QB Roberson threw for 318 yards, three TD’s.
Buffalo has won its last five MAC games.

 

[CNOTES]

Monday’s 6-pack:
— Mets 5, Rangers 2 (10)- Alonso’s walk-off HR ended Mets’ 8-game skid.
— Mariners 11, Angels 2- Seattle has a one-game lead in AL West.
— Blue Jays 11, Orioles 2- Toronto leads the AL East by four games.
— A’s 7, Reds 4- The A’s sweep the Reds, are out of last place!!!
— Dodgers 10, Giants 2- Teoscar Hernandez went 4-6, scored twice.
— Padres 9, Rockies 6- Jackson Merrill hit a 3-run homer.

Quote of the Day
“When we execute with the players that we have and the scheme that we have, we got a high probability to be successful.”
Matthew Stafford

Monday’s quiz
Rangers’ manager Bruce Bochy was catcher for three different teams; what team did he play for the most?
Hint: He played in a World Series

Sunday’s quiz
When the Rams beat Tennessee in Super Bowl XXXIV, Steve McNair was the Titans’ QB.

Saturday’s quiz
When the Texas Rangers won the World Series two years ago, they beat Arizona.

************************************************

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday……..​

Cowboys 40, Giants 37 OT
Cowboys drove 42 yards, kicked 46-yard FG with 0:04 left in OT.
Dallas kicked a 64-yard FG at end of regulation to force OT
Giants had taken lead on a 48-yard TD pass with 0:25 left.
Giants are 0-9 SU/3-6 ATS in last nine visits to Dallas.
Wilson was 30-41/450 passing, with three TD’s.
Prescott was 38-52/361 passing with two TD’s.
Giants in 4th quarter: 14 plays, 186 yards, 21 points.
Giants in overtime: 6 plays, 3 yards, no points.

Bengals 31, Jaguars 27
QB Burrow injured the big toe on his left foot (check status)
Backup QB Browning scored the game-winning TD with 0:18 left.
Cincinnati ran ball 17 times for only 48 yards.
Bengals are 2-0 for the first time since 2018.
Cincinnati’s winning drive was 15 plays, 92 yards.
Ja’marr Chase caught 14 passes for 165 yards.
Jacksonville led 17-10 at halftime.
Jags’ QB Lawrence was 24-42/271 passing (3 TD’s, 2 INT’s)

Patriots 33 Dolphins 27
Patriots snap a five-game losing skid to the Dolphins in Miami.
Dolphins took 27-23 lead with 74-yard punt return for TD.
Patriots took lead back with 90-yard kickoff return for a TD.
It was first time since 1992 that a punt return TD was immediately followed by a kickoff return for a TD.
Dolphins are 0-2, giving up 33 points in both games.
New England’s first three drives: 36 plays, 209 yards, 15 points.
Since 2021, Miami is 11-17-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Patriots were 7-12 on third down, Dolphins 4-10.

Colts 29, Broncos 28
Colts kicked 45-yard FG at gun to go to 2-0 for first time since 2009.
Colts missed 60-yard FG on previous play, but a 15-yard penalty on Denver gave Indy a second chance.
Indianapolis scored 4 TD’s, kicked 6 FG’s on its first 10 drives this season.
Indy hasn’t punted in its first two games.
Denver’s first four drives: 26 plays, 172 yards, three TD’s.
Denver rest of game: 29 plays, 147 yards, one TD.
Since 2017, Broncos are 7-11 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Steichen, Indy is 14-6 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.

Eagles 20, Chiefs 17
Game was tied 10-10 at halftime.
Barkley ran ball 22 times for 88 yards and a TD.
Philly is 11-5 ATS in last sixteen games vs AFC teams.
Eagles are 12-2-1 ATS in last 15 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Chiefs threw INT in red zone early in 4th quarter; Kelce dropped an easy throw.
KC’s first four drives of 2nd half: 24 plays, 90 yards, no points, 2 turnovers.
Chiefs are 0-2 for the first time since 2014.
Chiefs are o-2 in one-score games; before this year, they had won 11 consecutive one-score game.

]Lions 52, Bears 21
Goff passed for 334 yards, five TD’s, three of them to St. Brown
Detroit scored a TD on six of its last seven possessions.
Last 3+ years, Lions are 15-8 ATS as a home favorite.
Last 5+ years, Detroit is 11-5 ATS in home games vs NFC North rivals.
Since leading 17-6 in Week 1, Bears have been outscored, 73-28.
Chicago in 2nd half of this game: 32 plays, 131 yards, 7 points.
QB Williams is 5-14 as an NFL starter.
Since 2020, Chicago is 10-14 ATS as a road underdog.

Rams 33, Titans 19
Tennessee led 13-10 at halftime.
Rams in 2nd half: 35 plays, 262 yards, 23 points.
Titans in 2nd half: 31 plays, 75 yards, 6 points.
Last 3+ years, Rams are 7-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Rams outgained Tennessee, 439-252.
In two games, Rams have allowed one TD on 20 drives.
In two games, Titans have kicked 8 FG’s, scored only one TD.
Titans are 3-10 ATS in last 13 games as an underdog.

Famous birthdays, September 15th:
Tommy Lee Jones, 79
Oliver Stone, 79
LeRoy Irvin, 68
Dan Marino, 64
Earnest Byner, 63
Sherman Douglas, 59
Jason Terry, 48
Mike Dunleavy Jr., 45
Terry McLaurin, 30
Easton Stick, 30

Seahawks 31, Steelers 17
Leading 17-14, Seahawks scored a TD when the Steelers didn’t cover a kickoff that went in the end zone and Seattle fell on it for a TD that made score 24-14.
Seattle in 2nd half: 33 plays, 207 yards, 17 points.
Seahawks outscored Pittsburgh, 395-267.
Seahawks are 10-3 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.
Pittsburgh led 14-7 at halftime.
Steelers in 2nd half: 33 plays, 183 yards, 3 points, 2 turnovers.
Steelers ran ball 21 times for only 72 times.
Last 3+ years, Pittsburgh is 4-10-1 ATS as a home favorite.

Cardinals 27, Panthers 22
Cardinals scored a defensive TD 1:33 into the game.
Arizona’s first four drives: 28 plays, 148 yards, 13 points.
Arizona led 20-3 at halftime, then hung on for dear life.
Down 27-22 with 1:58 left, Carolina recovered an onside kick, but was stopped on downs by the Cardinal defense.
Panthers in first half: 29 plays, 111 yards, 3 points.
Carolina ran the ball 19 times for only 49 yards.
QB Young is 6-24 as an NFL starter; Canales is 5-14 as a head coach.
Carolina is 9-16-2 ATS in last 26 games coming off a loss.

Ravens 41, Browns 17
Lamar Jackson was 19-29/225 passing, with four TD’s.
Ravens scored 40-41 points in first two games, but split the pair.
Ravens lead was only 10-3 at halftime.
Up 27-10, Ravens scored defensive TD on 63-yard fumble return.
Ravens in second half: 24 plays, 158 yards, 24 points.
Browns in second half: 38 plays, 250 yards, 14 points.
Since 2021, Cleveland is 8-16-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Last 6+ years, Cleveland is 4-14 ATS in AFC North road games.

Bills 30, Jets 10
Buffalo outgained the Jets, 403-154.
Bills ran the ball 43 times for 224 yards.
James Cook ran 21 times for 132 yards, two TD’s.
Last 4+ years, Bills are 8-5 ATS in AFC East road games.
Bills were 5-14 on third down, Jets 0-11.
Buffalo led 20-3 at halftime.
Jets in first half: 24 plays, 78 yards, 3 points.
Bills won ten of last 12 series games.

49ers 26, Saints 21
Backup QB Jones threw for 279 yards and three TD’s.
49ers led this game 16-7 at halftime.
SF ran the ball 26 times for only 77 yards.
49ers were 8-15 on third down, New Orleans 4-11
Saints’ first four drives: 17 plays, 57 yards, no points.
Last 4+ years, Saints are 7-13 ATS as a home underdog.
Rattler is 0-8 as an NFL starting QB.
Saints are 7-13 ATS in last 19 games coming off a loss.

Falcons 22, Vikings 6
Falcons ran 63 plays for 326 yards, Vikings 46 plays for 198.
Minnesota turned ball over four times on 10 drives.
Falcons led 9-6 at halftime.
Only TD of game came on an 88-yard drive by Atlanta late in game.
McCarthy was 11-21/158 passing with two INT’s.
Vikings in first half of their 2 games: 51 plays, 219 yards, 4 FG’s.
Last nine years, Minnesota is 1-7-1 SU in home openers.
Under O’Connell, Vikings are 8-10 ATS as a home favorite.

 

[Udog]

WEEK FOUR

 

[Udog]

NCAAF

Week 4

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Trend Report
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[CNOTES]

Tuesday’s 6-pack:
NFL spreads for Week 3:
— Dolphins @ Buffalo (-12.5)
— Bengals @ Minnesota (-2.5)
— Steelers (-1.5) @ New England
— Colts (-3.5) @ Tennessee
— Texans (-1.5) @ Jacksonville
— Falcons (-5.5) @ Carolina

Quote of the Day
“Whether you think you can, or think you can’t, you’re right.”
Henry Ford

Tuesday’s quiz
LA/San Diego Chargers have played in one Super Bowl; who was their QB in that game?

Monday’s quiz
Rangers’ manager Bruce Bochy was catcher for three different teams; he played the most for San Diego, playing for the Padres in the 1984 World Series.

Sunday’s quiz
When the Rams beat Tennessee in Super Bowl XXXIV, Steve McNair was the Titans’ QB.

**********************************************

Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but……..​

I’m not sure if/when you’ll be reading this; had some major Internet issues at Armadillo World HQ late Monday night. Hopefully you’re reading this and all is well with the world…….

Buccaneers 20, Texans 19
Bucs drove 80 yards, scored game-winning TD with 0:06 left.
Tampa Bay opens up 2-0 for the fifth year in a row.
Bucs’ first two drives: 23 plays, 147 yards, two TD’s
Last two years, Tampa Bay is 12-2 ATS as a road underdog.
Houston took a 19-14 lead on a 25-yard run by Chubb with 2:10 left.
Tampa Bay outgained the Texnas, 360-266.
In two games, Houston has converted 4-18 third down plays.
Since 2019, Texans are 6-15-1 ATS as a home favorite.

Chargers 20, Raiders 9
Chargers picked off three passes, outgained Raiders 317-218.
Chargers led 17-6 at halftime.
Chargers are 6-2 SU/8-0 ATS last 7 games vs AFC West rivals.
Chargers are 10-3 ATS in last 13 games as a road favorite.
Raiders had drive of 19 plays, 62 yards; it took 11:07, but they kicked a FG.
Three drives after that, Raiders ran 14 plays for 27 yards, no points.
In two games (1-1), Raiders have run ball 43 times for 124 yards.
Since 2018, Raiders are 14-15-2 ATS as a home underdog.

— Tom Brady is part-owner of the Raiders; he was wearing a headset during the game Monday night, it is said that he consults with Raiders’ OC Chip Kelly on the game plan during the week.
How the BLEEP is he allowed to also broadcast games on network TV, where he meets with coaches of other teams during the week?!?!?!??
Raiders play Chicago in Week 4; if you’re Ben Johnson, do you want him in a production meeting where you will discuss your strategy??? I don’t think so.
NFL needs to put a stop to this.

— Through two weeks of the NFL…….
Home underdogs in divisional games are 1-5 ATS
Home underdogs in non-divisional games are 3-4 ATS
Home favorites in non-divisional games are 5-6 ATS
Home favorites in divisional games are 4-3 ATS
Overall, favorites are 17-15 ATS.

— Rough day for NFL quarterbacks………
Minnesota Vikings are expecting to start Carson Wentz this week, with JJ McCarthy nursing an ankle surgery.
Vikings are playing Cincinnati this week, which will be starting backup Jake Browning the next three months, after Joe Burrow had surgery on his foot/toe.
Commanders’ QB Jayden Daniels (knee) is a ??? for Washington’s game with the Raiders this week.
Also, Cowboys’ center Cooper Beebe is expected to miss 6-8 weeks with a sprained ankle.

— Famous birthdays, September 16th
Ed Begley, Jr, 76
Mickey Rourke, 73
Wilbert Montgomery, 71
Robin Yount, 70
Eric Hipple, 68
Jennifer Tilly, 67
Orel Hershiser, 67
Tim Raines, 66
Chad Harville, 49
Dan Dickau, 47
Brandon Moss, 42
Robbie Grossman, 36
Aaron Gordon, 30
Quinn Priester, 25
Sam Howell, 25

— In college football…….
AAC home teams are 3-6 ATS out of conference.
AAC road teams are 9-6 ATS out of conference.
AAC favorites are 7-5, home dogs are 0-4.
ACC non-conference home favorites are 4-8 ATS
Overall, ACC teams are 10-16 ATS out of conference.
Big 10 teams are 15-18 ATS out of conference.
Big X teams non-conference favorites are 9-8, underdogs are 3-4.
Conference USA teams are 11-6 ATS out of conference, 8-4 as road underdogs.
MAC teams are 15-10 ATS in non-conference games.
Mountain West teams are 13-7 ATS, road underdogs are 7-3 ATS
SEC home favorites are 7-11 ATS out of conference; overall, SEC teams are 15-13 ATS in non-conference games.
Sun Belt teams 12-14 ATS in non-conference games.

— Over the weekend, UCLA/Virginia Tech fired their football coaches; September is half-over today, and two college/minor league teams have already fired their coaches. Yikes.

— Phillies 6, Dodgers 5 (10)
Phillies clinch the NL East with this win.
Dodgers lead NL West by two games over San Diego.
Kyle Schwarber hit his 53rd home run; he has hit 22 homers off of lefties this year, tied with Stan Musial (1949), Matt Olson (2021) for most homers hit by a lefty off of lefties in one year.

— Diamondbacks 8, Giants 1
Arizona broke open a close game, scoring six runs in sixth inning.
Geraldo Perdomo was 3-fot-3 with 2 walks, scored a run.
Zac Gallen allowed two hits in six IP.
— Arizona is 1.5 games behind the Mets for the NL’s last playoff spot; Giants are now two games behind the Mets.

— Reds 11, Cardinals 6
Sal Stewart was 3-for-5, with 3 runs scored, 2 RBI
Cincinnati is also within two games of the NL’s last playoff spot.

— Astros 6, Rangers 3
Jeremy Pena was 2-for-4, with three RBI
Oft-injured Yordan Alvarez left this game with a sprained ankle.
Houston’s bullpen got 13 outs, didn’t allow run.

— Blue Jays 2, Rays 1 (11)
Trey Yesavage allowed a run in five IP in his MLB debut.
Toronto has a five-game lead in the NL East; their magic number is 8.

 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 4

 

[Udog]

NCAAF

Week 4

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Trend Report
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[CNOTES]

Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia denied intentions to play in 2026 as NCAA lawsuit continues: 'This is my last year'​

Pavia's lawyer's argument in court sparked speculation he may try to play another year at Vanderbilt​

Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia is in the midst of a lawsuit with the NCAA over the organization's eligibility rules, arguing that junior college playing time should not count towards NCAA eligibility.

This season marks Pavia's fourth year at the NCAA level (and sixth year overall, including junior college ball) after winning a temporary injunction against the NCAA to play in the 2025 season. While he's been allowed to play this season, his lawsuit with the NCAA continues and, on Tuesday, his lawyers argued that he should actually be eligible for the 2026 season as well, as per the NCAA's redshirt rules if his time in junior college doesn't count towards eligibility.

That argument became headline news that Pavia may be seeking a seventh season playing college football in 2026, but the quarterback took to Twitter to shut down the idea he could play another year, stating firmly "this is my last year."

The reason his lawyers are arguing for 2026 eligibility is not a matter of Pavia's desire to do so, but instead trying to set the precedent for future athletes.

Their argument, via a transcript from Sam Ehrlich, is that if the NCAA's rules stipulate that the five-year eligibility requires players to pursue a four-year degree during that time. When a player is in junior college, they are pursuing a two-year degree, and as such that should not count towards the eligibility once they go to a four-year school. If that is the case, then Pavia's five-year clock on eligibility would not have started until 2022 when he arrived at New Mexico State, meaning it would be technically possible for him to retain eligibility through 2026, pending redshirt rules.

That all seems moot in the specific case for Pavia, as he insists he has no plans on playing beyond this season in Nashville, but the matter is worth arguing at a judicial level for the purpose of setting a precedent for determining eligibility for former JUCO athletes.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-f...ce-gate-conversation-surrounding-viral-clips/

 

[CNOTES]

Arch Manning struggles, Dia Bell injury may force Texas to seek QB reinforcements if succession plan blows up​

The foundational idea that Texas may go smoothly from Manning to Bell is showing cracks, we write in the latest Talent Tracker​

If Arch Manning really is the biggest bust of all time, as some on social media would love to tell you, then Texas fans better start working on their wish list of transfer portal arms because incoming five-star quarterback recruit Dia Bell's development has taken a major hit.

Bell announced earlier this week he is shutting things down for the rest of his senior season in order to get a minor procedure. Injuries happen, but Bell also missed the tail end of his junior year with a lower-leg extremity. That means the MVP of this summer's Elite 11 Finals will head to Austin with just 25 varsity starts under his belt -- and that's not an ideal number.

There is no magic formula when it comes to predicting a quarterback's success, but live game reps are hard to replace. Just look at Quinn Ewers, who started only 25 games in high school after electing to reclassify and forgo his senior season. Ewers spent his first year at Ohio State running the scout team before eventually transferring to Texas where he brought Texas to consecutive College Football Playoff semifinals but never personally matched his lofty No. 1 overall ranking.

The Talent Tracker isn't ready to proclaim that Bell is the latest quasi-reclassification cautionary tale, but it would be a bit silly to think that Bell is going to factor into the Longhorns' quarterback plans next year -- 2026 -- if Manning really can't turn things around and that's because Bell's growth as a player is being stalled at a key moment.

When Michigan and Nebraska square off this upcoming weekend, it will be a meeting of two former five-star quarterbacks that were Day 1 starters in freshman Bryce Underwood and sophomore Dylan Raiola. The two are very different, but a tying thread between them is the fact that they both played a lot of football in high school with Underwood starting 54 games to Raiola's 37.

Neither Underwood or Raiola won state championships as seniors in high school, but they both made deep runs in the playoffs. That was also the case with two of the sport's other breakout young signal-callers in Cal's Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (35 career starts) and Maryland's Malik Washington (36 career starts).

Now, it's certainly not a requirement for quarterbacks to play meaningful games in the months leading up to their college enrollment, but it's hard to replicate high-pressure situations where one has to be the catalyst in a training camp or spring practice.

In Bell's case, for the second year in a row he's missing out on post-season competition.

Texas faithful entered this season with two schools of thought on the quarterback succession play. Manning would either play so well and win so many awards and take Texas so far in the CFP that he would have no choice but to go pro, or he would stick around for the 2026 season, which was, and is, still the most likely path. In either event, Bell would have jockeyed for the starting job in 2026 or 2027 against contenders Trey Owens and KJ Lacey.

The new formula suggests there's a chance Manning may flat-out flop at Texas and send UT looking for an alternative in 2026. Bell, without those key senior reps, would likely not be ready for the job.

Long-term, there are still plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the No. 3-ranked quarterback in the Top247.

Last month, Bell engineered a comeback for the ages as he rallied his Plantation American Heritage squad from a 28-point halftime deficit to beat Philadelphia St. Joseph's on a last-second field goal. A week later, he threw for 325 yards and three touchdowns against a Hollywood Chaminade-Madonna Prep program that has won four-straight state titles in Florida.

The son of longtime NBA player Raja Bell, Dia has received terrific coaching since his youth and has some of the best mechanics in the class (that should please some of the season ticket holders inside DKR Texas-Memorial Stadium). He's proven to be accurate to all three levels. He can play in structure and he can also use his slick athleticism to extend passing windows when the protection isn't clean.

When Bell committed to the Longhorns two summers ago, it came after he threw alongside multiple other high-profile quarterback recruits at a camp in Austin. He was essentially handpicked by Steve Sarkisian and the rest of the offensive staff to be the eventual successor to Manning.

There's no reason to think that Bell can't eventually be the guy for Texas, but it's probably wise to temper the timeline with the most recent injury.

Other QB recruits dealing with injuries​

– Faizon Brandon (Tennessee commit): The No. 1-ranked recruit in the Top247 has not played for North Carolina's Greensboro Grimsley since injuring his thumb on a game-winning touchdown run in the first outing of his senior season. Details on his return have been scarce.
Brandon owns one of the best statistical profiles in the class with a 30-1 record as a starter, having thrown 72 touchdowns to just five interceptions. The Vols look to have struck gold on a one-year rental in transfer Joey Aguilar, but Brandon is viewed internally as Tenneessee's quarterback of the future and is expected to battle former four-star recruits Jake Merklinger and George MacIntyre for the starting gig when he arrives on campus.

– Travis Burgess (North Carolina commit): Burgess, the No. 7 quarterback in the Top247, tore his ACL during the second game of his senior season. A major rankings riser this summer, the athletic Burgess turned heads at the Elite 11 Finals and was hoping to lead Grayson to its second consecutive Georgia AAAAAA championship.

After a dismal debut, Gio Lopez has found his footing and helped power UNC to back-to-back victories. Lopez has two more years of eligibility remaining after transferring in from South Alabama. He should only get more comfortable running Bill Belichick's offense, but it could be hard to fend off a healthy Burgess, who is similar in a lot of ways to Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green given the frame and dynamic cuts as a runner.

–Peyton Falzone (Auburn commit): The quarterback situation on The Plains looks much more promising than it did this time last year. Jackson Arnold has the Tigers off to a 3-0 start and the buzz coming out of preseason camp was that ballyhooed recruit Deuce Knight is ahead of schedule.

Falzone, who ranks as the No. 13 quarterback in the 2026 cycle, broke the clavicle in his non-throwing shoulder four games into his senior season and is done for the year. The four-sport athlete and former Penn State commit was always going to be a longer burn, but the injury ended a 12th-grade campaign where he was showing notable growth as a passer.

 

[CNOTES]

I don't know how to fix UCLA​

The news that UCLA fired DeShaun Foster shouldn't have been much of a surprise when it came down on Sunday. The Bruins were not only off to an 0-3 start, but lost at home to New Mexico 35-10 in a buy game. It was also their second loss to a Mountain West team in as many weeks, with both losses coming off an embarrassing performance against Utah in the season-opener.

Foster never had a chance to succeed. He took over in mid-February 2024 after a series of unexpected dominoes led to an opening. Then, Boston College coach Jeff Hafley left to become the defensive coordinator of the Green Bay Packers, which opened the door for Ohio State offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien to take the Boston College job. That gave Chip Kelly the chance to abandon what he felt was a sinking ship, making the unprecedented move of leaving his position as a P4 head coach to become the offensive coordinator of a school in the same conference.

It's a choice that looks wise in retrospect. Kelly won a natty at Ohio State and parlayed that into a return to the NFL, where he's now running the Las Vegas Raiders offense.

So there was Foster taking over a program late in the process after a hiring cycle that didn't seem very appealing. The former UCLA running back had spent time as a grad assistant and running backs coach with the Bruins (as well as one season in the same role at Texas Tech in 2016) before being elevated to head coach out of necessity.

He took over a program with serious financial problems (problems that helped lead UCLA to the Big Ten in the first place, and hampered the school's ability to attract a more proven option), and while those financials have likely improved somewhat thanks to some of that Big Ten revenue, they certainly aren't solved completely.

So now UCLA is in the same position it found itself when it hired Foster. An open job that's likely not as attractive as those in charge think. I have no clue how UCLA digs itself out of this mess, or how long it'll take to do so.

 

[CNOTES]

Big Red breakthrough: Nebraska looks to end a near decade of misery with a Week 4 win over Michigan​

Could the stars finally be aligned for Nebraska to snap a 27-game losing streak vs. ranked opponents?​

Nebraska's last win over a ranked opponent came against No. 22 Oregon in 2016, amid a 7-0 start that saw the Cornhuskers rise all the way to No. 7 in the AP poll. Not even the boldest of Nebraska's haters would have predicted what was coming.

Following that momentous start to the 2016 campaign, the Cornhuskers are 37-62 and have dropped 27 in a row against ranked foes. It marks one of the most stunning falls from a traditional power in college football history.

But the light at the end of tunnel has never been closer than it is now. The 3-0 Cornhuskers host No. 21 Michigan Saturday afternoon on CBS in a breakthrough opportunity for a success-starved program.

As just a 2.5-point underdog, Nebraska wouldn't be shocking the world by taking down the Wolverines, which is exactly why it's such a big opportunity. The Cornhuskers are on a clear upward trajectory under third-year coach Matt Rhule after reaching a bowl game for the first time since 2016 last season. They just need a marquee victory to validate it.

Taking down a massive national brand in front of a sold-out crowd in a prime TV slot would check the box. A win over the Wolverines would send Nebraska stock skyrocketing entering what appears to be a manageable Big Ten slate.

The Cornhuskers do not play No. 1 Ohio State, No. 6 Oregon, No. 9 Illinois or No. 19 Indiana. After Michigan, there are no ranked opponents on the schedule until November, when the Cornhuskers host No. 25 USC and travel to No. 2 Penn State.

A win on Saturday would catapult the Cornhuskers into the College Football Playoff conversation, much in the same way that a Week 4 victory over Illinois might have raised Nebraska's national profile last season.

The circumstances were eerily similar as the 3-0 Cornhuskers hosted the No. 24 Illini. But an all-too-familiar heartache ensued as Nebraska relinquished a fourth-quarter lead and fell 31-24 in overtime to an Illinois team led by veteran quarterback Luke Altmyer.

Nebraska, in Year 2 under Rhule, wasn't quite ready yet, with freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola still learning on the job in high-leverage situations.

The tables have turned this time around. Michigan freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood will be making his Big Ten debut, and Raiola is no longer a newbie. The former five-star prospect has completed 76.6% of his passes with eight touchdowns and no interceptions through three games.

While the last two opponents — Akron and Houston Baptist — were patsies, Nebraska showed some grit in a Week 1 win over Cincinnati as Raiola completed 33 of 42 passes for 243 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions.

Raiola's command of the Nebraska offense under coordinator Dana Holgorsen gives the Cornhuskers a chance against a talented but imperfect Michigan defense. Oklahoma offered a blueprint in Week 2 for how a playmaking quarterback can keep the Wolverines off balance.

Michigan will also be dealing with the absence of head coach Sherrone Moore, who will be serving the second game of a three-game suspension stemming from a violation of NCAA rules tied to the program's 2023 sign-stealing scandal.

The Wolverines were fine without Moore in a win over Central Michigan last week and should be able to handle business in the third game of his suspension next season against Western Michigan. Moore's absence for the Nebraska showdown is the true pain point for the Wolverines, who will be led by interim coach Biff Poggi.

The stars have perhaps never been more aligned than they are now for Nebraska.

Even with a loss, the 2025 season can still be one of progress for the program. But Saturday's opportunity is unique.

The long-suffering Cornhuskers can shed nearly a decade of misery against ranked teams while announcing their legitimacy to the Big Ten and the rest of college football.

Nebraska's 1995 national championship team will be honored on the field during the game. But the most fitting tribute would be a victory over Michigan that illustrates how the glory days are finally on the way back.

 

[CNOTES]

Wednesday’s 6-pack:
NFL spreads for Week 3:
— Broncos @ LA Chargers (-2.5)
— Saints @ Seattle (-7.5)
— Cardinals @ San Francisco (-1.5)
— Cowboys @ Chicago (-1.5)
— Chiefs (-6.5) @ NJ Giants
— Lions @ Baltimore (-4.5)

Quote of the Day
“I have no regrets, because I’ve done everything I could to the best of my ability.”
Robert Redford

Wednesday’s quiz
Robert Redford played Roy Hobbs in The Natural; what number did Roy Hobbs wear for the New York Knights?

Tuesday’s quiz
LA/San Diego Chargers have played in one Super Bowl; Stan Humphries was their quarterback in that game.

Monday’s quiz
Rangers’ manager Bruce Bochy was catcher for three different teams; he played the most for San Diego, playing for the Padres in the 1984 World Series.

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Wednesday’s Den: Trends for every major league team…….​

Trends for every major league team
(thru Tuesday’s games)

— Arizona (77-75)
Arizona won five of its last seven games.
Diamondbacks are 19-27 in one-run games.
Arizona is 25-20 vs NL West foes, 52-55 vs everyone else.
Over is 6-2-1 in their last nine games.

— Braves (69-83)
Braves won their last four games.
Atlanta is 36-39 at home, 33-44 on the road.
Braves are 27-21 vs NL East rivals, 42-62 vs everyone else.
Under is 12-5-1 in their last 18 games.

— Cubs (87-64)
Chicago is 6-1 in its last seven games.
Cubs are holding #1 Wild Card slot in NL
Under is 7-1-1 in their last nine road games.
Cubs are 68-44 vs righty starters, 19-20 vs lefties.

— Reds (75-76)
Cincinnati lost four of its last five games.
Reds are 56-53 vs righty starters, 19-23 vs lefties.
Under is 7-3-1 in their last 10 road games.
Reds are three games out of the NL’s last Wild Card slot.

— Rockies (41-110)
Colorado lost 13 of its last 15 games.
Over is 5-2 in Rockies’ last seven games.
Rockies are 7-33 vs lefty starters, 34-77 vs righties.
Colorado scored first inning run in only one of last 37 road games.

— Dodgers (84-67)
Dodgers won six of their last nine games.
LA leads San Diego by two games in NL West.
Dodgers are 62-44 vs righty starters, 22-23 vs lefties.
Over is 6-1 in their last seven games.

— Marlins (71-80)
Marlins are 5-1 in their last six games.
Miami is 36-42 at home, 35-38 on the road.
Over is 6-2 in Marlins’ last eight games.
Marlins are 52-55 vs righty starters, 19-25 vs lefties.

— Brewers (92-59)
Brewers are 13-14 in their last 27 games.
Milwaukee is 49-27 at home, 43-32 on the road.
Over is 20-8-2 in their last 30 home games.
Milwaukee has clinched a playoff spot; they lead NL Central. By 5 games

— Mets (78-73)
Mets are 2-8 in their last ten games.
Mets are 47-29 at home, 31-44 on the road.
Over is 5-2 in their last seven games.
Mets lead Arizona by 1.5 games for last NL Wild Card slot.

— Phillies (91-61)
Phillies are 15-4 in their last 19 games.
Phillies are 68-38 vs righty starters, 23-23 vs lefties.
Over is 8-0 in their last eight games.
Phillies have clinched the NL East.

— Pirates (65-87)
Pirates lost 10 of their last 11 games.
Pittsburgh is 42-35 at home, 23-52 on the road.
Under is 9-2 in their last 11 games.
Pirates are 51-68 vs righty starters, 14-19 vs lefties.

— St Louis (74-78)
St Louis is 2-6 in its last eight games.
Cardinals scored in first inning in only two of last 27 home games.
St Louis is 42-35 at home, 32-43 on the road.
Under is 5-2 in their last seven home games.

— Padres (82-69)
San Diego is 6-8 in its last 14 games.
Padres are 47-28 at home, 35-41 on the road.
Padres are 59-46 vs righty starters, 23-23 vs lefties.
San Diego have a 4-game for the #2 Wild Card slot in NL.

— Giants (75-76)
Giants lost five of their last six games.
Giants are 59-49 vs righty pitchers, 16-27 vs lefties.
Over is 5-2-1 in their last eight games.
SF is three games out of the NL’s last Wild Card slot.

— Washington (62-90)
Nationals are 2-6 in their last eight games.
Washington is 46-62 vs righty starters, 16-28 vs lefties.
Under is 3-1-1 in their last five games.
Nationals are 21-16 in one-run games.

— Famous birthdays, September 17th:
Phil Jackson, 80
Junior Bridgeman, 72
John Franco, 65
Anthony Carter, 65
Kyle Chandler, 60
Rasheed Wallace, 52
Dan Haren, 45
Marcus Semien, 35
José Ramírez, 33
Patrick Mahomes, 30
Brandon Sproat, 25
James Wood, 23

— Orioles (71-80)
Baltimore won 10 of its last 14 games.
Orioles are 51-57 vs vs righty starters, 20-23 vs lefties.
Under is 11-0 in their last eleven home games.
Orioles are 19-23 vs AL East rivals, 52-57 vs everyone else.

— Red Sox (82-69)
Red Sox are 1-4 in their last five games.
Boston is 45-31 at home, 37-38 on road.
Under is 6-1 in their last seven games.
Red Sox have 2.5-game lead for last AL Wild Card slot.

— White Sox (57-95)
Chicago lost five of its last seven games.
White Sox are 32-45 at home, 25-50 on the road.
Under is 5-1 in their last six games.
Chicago is 42-74 vs righty starters, 15-21 vs lefties.

— Cleveland (79-71)
Cleveland is 10-1 in its last 11 games.
Guardians are 2.5 games out of the AL’s last Wild Card slot.
Guardians are 61-47 vs righty starters, 18-24 vs lefties.
Under is 11-2 in their last thirteen games.

— Detroit (85-66)
Detroit is 7-13 in its last 20 games.
Tigers are 29-18 vs its AL Central rivals, lead division by 5.5 games.
Over is 10-3 in their last thirteen games.
Detroit is 20-9 in one-run games.

— Houston (83-69)
Astros are 5-2 in their last seven games.
Astros are 12-19 in their last 31 home games.
Astros trail Seattle by half a game in AL West.
Over is 6-0 in their last six home games.

— Royals (75-76)
Royals are 11-15 in their last 26 games.
Kansas City is 58-64 vs righty starters, 17-12 vs lefties.
Over is 4-0 in Royals’ last four games.
Royals scored in first inning in 14 of last 24 home games.

— Angels (69-82)
Angels lost 20 of their last 30 games.
Over is 8-3 in their last eleven games.
Angels are 58-67 vs righty starters, 11-15 vs lefties.
Angels are in last place in AL West ($206M payroll)

— Twins (66-85)
Twins lost 22 of their last 33 games.
Minnesota is 37-39 at home, 29-46 on the road.
Over is 13-4 in their last 17 home games.
Twins are 2-9 in last 11 games where winning run scored from 7th inning on.

— New York (84-67)
New York is 8-7 in its last 15 games.
Over is 11-5 in their last 16 road games.
New York is 68-51 vs righty starters, 16-16 vs lefties.
Right now, New York has the #1 Wild Card slot in AL.

— A’s (71-80)
A’s have won their last five games.
Under is 6-2 in their last eight games.
A’s are 53-65 vs righty starters, 18-15 vs lefties.
A’s are 9-4 in extra innings this season.

— Seattle (83-68)
Mariners won their last 10 games, scoring 78 runs.
Seattle is 33-10 in its last 43 home games.
Over is 10-4 in their last fourteen games.
Seattle leads Houston by half a game in AL West.

— Tampa Bay (73-78)
Tampa Bay lost five of its last six games.
Rays are 38-38 at home, 35-40 on the road.
Over is 5-2-1 in their last eight games.
Rays are 7-13 in last 20 games where winning run scored from 7th inning on.

— Texas (79-73)
Rangers lost their last three games.
Texas is 3.5 games out of the AL’s last Wild Card slot.
Texas is 62-51 vs righty starters, 17-22 vs lefties
Rangers are 47-28 at home, 32-45 on road.

— Toronto (89-62)
Blue Jays are 11-4 in their last 15 games.
Blue Jays won 25 of their last 34 home games.
Over is 3-1 in their last four games.
Toronto leads New York/Boston by three games in AL East.

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday’s 6-pack:
College football spreads for Week 3:
% of teams’ running plays that didn’t gain any yards:
37.1%— Raiders
32%— Seahawks
31.3%— Giants
31.3%— Chargers
28.6%— Dolphins
24%— 49ers

Quote of the Day
“Be yourself; everyone else is already taken.”
Oscar Wilde

Thursday’s quiz
Who was the first player in major league history to hit 40 home runs and steal 30 bases in the same season?

Wednesday’s quiz
Robert Redford played Roy Hobbs in The Natural; Roy Hobbs wore number 9 for the New York Knights.

Tuesday’s quiz
LA/San Diego Chargers have played in one Super Bowl; Stan Humphries was their quarterback in that game.

*********************************************

Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud….​

— The great actor Robert Redford passed away earlier this week at age 89; what a tremendous career he had, both as an actor and behind the scenes, as a producer/director.
I’m not 100% sure of this, but I think Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid was the first movie I ever saw in a movie theater. Long time ago.
Redford later created the Sundance Institute, a non-profit that supports independent film and theater and is known for its annual Sundance Film Festival.
What an epic career; he will be missed.
RIP, sir.

— My favorite Robert Redford movies:
Up Close and Personal
The Natural
Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid
The Candidate
Three Days of the Condor
All the President’s Men

— Well-known actors who were also in Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, along with Redford and Paul Newman:
Cloris Leachman, Ted Cassidy (Lurch in the Addams Family) and Sam Elliott.

— Former big league pitcher Ron Darling is one of the best, if not the best, color analysts on major league games. He works mainly on Mets’ games.
He was talking the other night about playing in the minor leagues, why they’re important.
“You learn how to win, but you also learn how to lose, and that is important.”

— Salvador Perez had a pretty good night recently; his 300th career home run gave him his 1,000th career RBI. Perez is a future Hall of Famer.

— Arkansas Razorbacks unveiled their non-conference basketball schedule for the coming season; they’re playing all eight teams who were in last spring’s Elite 8. Playing such a tough schedule is an indication that John Calipari thinks he has a really good team.

— Over the last 55 years, only one NFL team has started a season 2-0, with both wins coming on last-minute touchdowns; the 2025 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

— Jets’ QB Justin Fields (concussion) is out for this week’s game in Tampa; Tyrod Taylor will get the start. Taylor is 28-29-1 as an NFL starter, playing for seven different teams in 15 years.

— Famous birthdays, September 18th:
Billy Gambrell, 84
Jeff Bostic, 67
Toni Kukoč, 57
Aisha Tyler, 55
Jason Sudekis, 50
Serge Ibaka, 36
Kevin Dotson, 29
Ceddanne Rafaela, 25
The great actor Jack Warden was born on this day in 1920.

— Pretty cool scene before the Mets’ game the other night; Francisco Lindor’s wife Katia played the national anthem on her violin, with their three kids standing nearby on the field.

— Cubs 8, Pirates 4
Cubs clinch their first playoff berth since 2020.
Ian Happ homered, drove in three runs.
Cubs have won seven of their last eight games.

— Giants 5, Diamondbacks 1 (11)
Brandon Pfaadt allowed one hit in nine shutout IP for Arizona.
Giants end a 4-game skid; they’re 2 games out of the last playoff spot.
Justin Verlander allowed three hits in his 7 IP.

— Padres 7, Mets 4
Manny Machado broke a 2-2 tie with a fifth inning grand slam.
Mets lead Arizona by 1.5 games for the last playoff spot.
Juan Soto hit his 41st home run for the Mets.

— Guardians 4, Tigers 0
Cleveland creeps to within 4.5 games of the first-place Tigers.
Guardians have won 11 of their last 12 games.
Gavin Williams allowed three hits in 5 IP.

— Royals 7, Mariners 5
Royals scored four runs in the 8th, broke Seattle’s 10-game win streak.
Adam Frazier’s two-run home run was the game-winning hit.
Mariners fall a half-game behind Houston in the AL West race.

— Astros 5, Rangers 2
Jeremy Pena homered, doubled for Houston.
Jose Altuve hit a two-run homer.
Cristian Javier allowed five hits in six IP, got the win.

— If the baseball playoffs started today (they start week after next):
NL: Phillies, Brewers, Dodgers. Wild Cards: Cubs, Padres, Mets
AL: Blue Jays, Tigers, Astros. Wild Cards: New York, Red Sox, Mariners

 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Weather Report

Thursday, September 18

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 4

Thursday’s game
Rice (-1.5) @ Charlotte
Rice (2-1)
Rice won 14-12 (+10) at Louisiana, lost 35-9 to Houston.
Owls ran ball for 206-177 yards in their two I-A games.
Rice has 3 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Owls have 56 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Jenkins has run for 152 yards, thrown for 182 in three games.


Last five years, Rice is 1-3 ATS as a road favorite.
Owls’ new coach was 47-28 at I-AA Davidson.
Rice is 10-6 ATS in last 16 conference games.
Owls are 13-10 ATS last 23 games coming off a win.


Charlotte (1-2)
Charlotte lost 34-11/20-3 in its I-A games.
49ers were held to 76-21 rushing yards in those games.
Charlotte has 2 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
49ers have 100 returning starts on OL, mostly transfers.
Junior QB Harrell started three games at North Carolina


Charlotte beat a I-AA team 42-35 last week.
Since 2021, 49ers are 4-12 ATS as a home underdog.
Charlotte is 3-14-1 ATS in its last 18 home games.
Charlotte is 12-11-1 ATS in last 24 conference games.
49ers are 5-10 ATS in last 15 games coming off a win.


Charlotte won three of last four series games.
Road team won four of last six meetings SU.
Under is 4-2 in last six series games.

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday, September 18​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
RICE at CHAR	07:30 PM	CHAR +2.5 O 42.5	+500 +500

 

[CNOTES]

COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS FOR SEPTEMBER !

0918/2025...........1 - 1 - 0................50.00%............- 0.50
09/13/202.......12 - 11 - 0................52.17%...........- 0.30
09/12/2025.........3 - 5 - 0................37.50%...........- 12.50
09/11/2025.........1 - 1 - 0................50.00%...........- 0.50
09/06/2025.......7 - 11 - 0...............38.88%............- 24.00
09/05/2025.........3 - 4 - 0...............42.85%............- 7.00

TOTALS............27 -33 - 0...............45.00%............- 44.80

**********************************

COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS FOR AUGUST !

08/23/2025..........................5 - 1 - 1.........................83.33%.........................+ 19.50

TOTALS................................5 - 1 - 1 ........................83.33%.........................+ 19.50

 

[CNOTES]

Friday’s 6-pack:
QB’s with most passing yards, thru Week 2:
618— Russell Wilson, NJG
588— Daniel Jones, Minn
560— Justin Herbert, LAC
559— Jared Goff, Det
549— Dak Prescott, Dal
543— Matthew Stafford, Rams

Thought of the Day
If you want people to speak kindly about you after you’re gone, then you should speak kindly while you’re alive.

Friday’s quiz
Who was the QB for the Buffalo Bills, the year before they drafted Josh Allen?

Thursday’s quiz
Henry Aaron was the first player in major league history to hit 40+ home runs and steal 30+ bases in the same season.

Wednesday’s quiz
Robert Redford played Roy Hobbs in The Natural; Roy Hobbs wore number 9 for the New York Knights.

*****************************************

Friday’s Den: Clearing out a cluttered mind…….​

— Bills 31, Dolphins 21
Buffalo won its first three games,. scoring 41-30-31 points.
Bills ran ball 27 times for 157 yards (5.8 yards/carry)
Buffalo outgained the Dolphins, 360-277.
Bills won five in row, 13 of last 14 series games.
Game was 14-14 at halftime.
Miami converted 10 of 15 third down plays; it wasn’t enough.
Dolphins lost their first three games, giving up 33-33-31 points.
Miami is minus-5 in turnovers in its three games.

— Rice 28, Charlotte 17
Rice is 3-1 for the first time since 2001.
Owls led 14-9 at halftime.
Rice ran the ball 46 times for 255 yards (5.5 yards/carry).
Charlotte threw for 259 yards, converted 8-18 on third down.

— Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw is going to retire after this season, his 18th season in the major leagues. Kershaw is 222-96, 2.54 in his career; he’s led the league in ERA five times, also won three Cy Young awards.

— Seattle 3B Eugenio Suarez went 4-for-4 for the Mariners in Kansas City Tuesday, snapping an 0-for-32 skid. This year, he is hitting .096 in 23 games in T-Mobile Park in Seattle. Kind of hard to visualize him signing with the Mariners as a free agent this winter.

— June 11-15th, Reds’ SS Elly De La Cruz homered in four straight games; since June 24th, he has hit one home run, in 297 at-bats. Is he playing hurt?

— Minnesota Twins eliminated their four-person pro scouting department this week; teams are trending towards video-based scouting.

— Tennessee Titans are the only NFL team that doesn’t have a play of 30+ yards in their first two games.

— Famous birthdays, September 19th:
David Ray, 81
Randolph Mantooth, 80
Larry Brown, 78 (Redskins’ RB)
Nat Moore, 74
Dan Hampton, 68
Phil Stephenson, 65
Jim Abbott, 58
Jimmy Fallon, 51
Nick Johnson, 47
Gio Gonzalez, 40
Ryan Succop, 39
George Springer, 36
CJ McCollum, 34
Dejounte Murray, 29

— Guardians 3, Tigers 1
Jose Ramirez hit a 2-run homer in the 7th inning.
Cleveland has won 12 of its last 13 games.
Detroit has lost six of its last seven games.
Tigers’ lead in AL Central is down to 3.5 games.

— Reds 1, Cubs 0
Hunter Greene threw a complete game one-hitter.
Reds are within two games of the Mets for the last Wild Card slot.

— Mets 6, Padres 1
Pete Alonso homered for the fourth game in a row.
Juan Soto got his 100th RBI of the season.

— Mariners 2, Royals 0
Luis Castillo allowed three hits in his six IP.
Seattle/Houston are tied for first in the AL West.

— Rays 4, Blue Jays 0
Shane Baz pitched five scoreless IP for Tampa Bay.
Chandler Simpson had three hits, for second game in a row.
Toronto’s magic number to clinch the AL East is 3.

— A’s 5, Red Sox 3
Brent Rooker hit his 30th home run for the A’s.
Red Sox have lost five of their last seven games.
Red Sox lead Cleveland by 1.5 games for the last Wild Card slot.