CNOTES ALCS & NLCA All You Need To Know + My Best Bets !

[CNOTES]

MLB


Thursday, October 7

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Payoff Pitch: Today's Best Mound Matchups
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Andy Pettitte, New York Yankees vs. Carl Pavano, Minnesota Twins

Andy Pettitte (11-3, 3.28 ERA)

They don’t call Andy Pettitte "Mr. October," but maybe they should.

Pettitte is the winningest pitcher baseball postseason history with 18 victories. His career playoff statistics include an 18-9 record, a 3.90 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and 164 strikeouts in 249 innings. During New York's run to last year's World Series title, Pettitte compiled a perfect 4-0 mark and a 3.52 ERA in five starts.

At 38 years old, Pettitte is going full steam ahead in 2010. En route to his 11-3 record and impressive 3.28 ERA, he faced the Twins twice, going 2-0 with a miniscule 1.26 ERA.

A significant question mark, however, is that Pettitte dealt with groin and back problems throughout the second half of the year. He is just the seventh MLB pitcher since 1952 to start a postseason game after throwing less than 20 innings as a starter following the All-Star break.

Pettitte posted an 11-10 over/under mark during the regular season, including 6-2 in his last eight starts.

Carl Pavano (17-11, 3.75 ERA)

When the Yankees look across the diamond and see Carl Pavano hurling against them, they will probably be wondering what they were missing when he was part of the team between 2005 and 2008. Crushed by injuries, Pavano made just 26 starts in for years and missed the entire 2006 season. Let's just say that in his "best" year with New York in 2005, he went 4-6 with a 4.77 ERA!

Armed with a clean bill of health, Pavano is not making the Twins regret their acquisition of him in 2009. This season, the 34-year-old has struck out 117 batters against only 37 walks in 221 innings to go along with his 17-11 record and 3.75 ERA.

"I can't tell you how good it feels to be counted on again," Pavano told the USA Today. That’s something the Yankees could never do. In fact, Pavano was dubbed "American Idle" during his tenure in the Big Apple.

Pavano finished the regular season with a 14-17 over/under clip, including 4-1 in his last five starts.

 

[CNOTES]

MLB


Thursday, October 7

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2:37 PM
TEXAS vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Texas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games at home

6:07 PM
NY YANKEES vs. MINNESOTA
NY Yankees are 4-8 SU in their last 12 games
NY Yankees are 15-2 SU in their last 17 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota is 1-7 SU in their last 8 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
Minnesota is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games

9:37 PM
ATLANTA vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta
San Francisco is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Atlanta

 

[CNOTES]

A Parlay for fun........

Ticket #: 83354371] PARLAY (6 TEAMS) RR (1P-6T)

10/07/2010 @ 04:45 PM CFB [305] TOTAL o47½ 1.91
(NEBRASKA vrs KANSAS ST)

10/07/2010 @ 04:45 PM CFB [306] KANSAS ST +10½ 1.91

10/07/2010 @ 06:35 PM MLB [958] SFO GM1 -1½ 2.45
( D LOWE-R / T LINCECUM-R )

10/07/2010 @ 06:35 PM MLB [958] TOTAL u6½ 1.95 (ATL GM1 vrs SFO GM1)
( D LOWE-R / T LINCECUM-R )

10/07/2010 @ 03:05 PM MLB [961] TOTAL o9 1.95 (NYY GM2 vrs MIN GM2)
( A PETTITTE-L / C PAVANO-R )

10/07/2010 @ 03:05 PM MLB [962] MIN GM2 +1½ 1.63
( A PETTITTE-L / C PAVANO-R )

 

[CNOTES]

Giants are heavy Game 1 favorites over Braves

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA BRAVES (91-71)
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (92-70)

NLDS Game 1, Thursday 9:35 p.m. EDT
Line: San Francisco -155, Atlanta +145 Total: 6.5

The last Game 1 on the docket pits Derek Lowe (16-12, 4.00 ERA) and the Braves against Tim Lincecum (16-10, 3.43 ERA) and the Giants. Lowe finished the regular season on fire, winning his final five starts and not allowing more than two runs in any of those outings. He was 2-0 in two starts against the Giants this year, combining to go 11.1 innings and giving up just three runs and nine hits. Lowe is 7-5 with a 3.02 ERA in his career against San Francisco.

Lincecum also comes in hot, with a 2-1 record and a 1.80 ERA over his past three starts. He has won five of his past six outings and has struck out 52 batters over that span. Lincecum took the loss against the Braves on August 5, going 6.1 innings and giving up three runs on six hits, including two home runs. He fared better against Atlanta back in April, surrendering two runs over seven innings and picking up the win in his second start of the year. In eight career games against the Braves, Lincecum is 6-2 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.

Atlanta earned a much-needed win over Philadelphia to make the playoffs, and the FoxSheets think that game might take a toll on the Braves in Game 1:

Play Against - Road teams (ATLANTA) - off a one-run win over a division rival, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 3 starts. (149-86 since 1997.) (63.4%, +62.7 units. Rating = 3*).

 

[CNOTES]

Record for the playoffs:

5-7-0 41.67% -1230

Friday, October 8Game Score Status Pick Amount

Cincinnati - 6:00 PM ET Philadelphia -193 500 *****
Philadelphia - Over 7 500 *****

Atlanta - 9:30 PM ET San Francisco -136 500 *****
San Francisco - Under 6.5 500*****


Good Luck !

 

[CNOTES]

MLB
Long Sheet


Friday, October 8

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CINCINNATI (91 - 72) at PHILADELPHIA (98 - 65) - 6:05 PM
BRONSON ARROYO (R) vs. ROY OSWALT (R)
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 99-64 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 75-41 (+19.4 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 71-44 (+16.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 21-9 (+13.1 Units) against the money line in playoff games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 62-36 (+15.0 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 53-32 (+17.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 33-9 (+24.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 99-64 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
OSWALT is 53-21 (+27.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
CINCINNATI is 42-40 (+5.0 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
CINCINNATI is 93-89 (+26.8 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Friday since 1997.
CINCINNATI is 92-72 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
CINCINNATI is 62-46 (+14.1 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
CINCINNATI is 58-50 (+5.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
CINCINNATI is 41-30 (+12.3 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
CINCINNATI is 92-72 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ARROYO is 12-6 (+7.4 Units) against the money line in road games this season. (Team's Record)
ARROYO is 12-6 (+7.4 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 6-2 (+3.7 Units) against CINCINNATI this season
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.7 Units)

BRONSON ARROYO vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997
ARROYO is 1-5 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 5.84 and a WHIP of 1.568.
His team's record is 2-5 (-2.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-4. (-1.6 units)

ROY OSWALT vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
OSWALT is 22-3 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 2.88 and a WHIP of 1.157.
His team's record is 23-9 (+8.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 15-15. (-1.2 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA (91 - 71) at SAN FRANCISCO (92 - 70) - 9:30 PM
TOMMY HANSON (R) vs. MATT CAIN (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 4-3 (+0.5 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO this season
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.0 Units)

TOMMY HANSON vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
HANSON is 1-0 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 2.57 and a WHIP of 0.929.
His team's record is 1-1 (-0.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (+0.0 units)

MATT CAIN vs. ATLANTA since 1997
CAIN is 2-2 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 4.03 and a WHIP of 1.552.
His team's record is 2-3 (-0.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-1. (+2.9 units)

 

[CNOTES]

MLB


Friday, October 8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Payoff Pitch: Today's Best Mound Matchup
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Bronson Arroyo, Cincinnati Reds vs. Roy Oswalt, Philadelphia Phillies

Bronson Arroyo (17-10, 3.88 ERA)

The wanna-be rock star quietly had his strongest season in the National League.

Since coming over from Boston in 2006 he had merely flashed his overall skills, but this season he ranked fourth in the NL in wins (17), sixth in complete games (2) and eighth in WHIP (1.15) and innings pitched (215.2).

Arroyo hasn’t pitched in the postseason since his time with the Red Sox. But in three pressure-packed seasons he appeared in five different series and a total of 10 starts, failing to impress nearly every time. In 17 career postseason innings – including two starts – he has yielded 14 earned runs on a staggering 19 hits. His playoff ERA is an astronomical 7.41.

The hurler also doesn’t throw well against the Phillies. In his career, he is just 1-5 against the Phils with a horrid 5.54 ERA.

"You know, Bronson's been here before," Reds manager Dusty Baker told the Cincinnati Enquirer. "They have some guys over there that have had some success against Bronson, too. But there are some guys last night that didn't have any success against Volquez and ended up having success. So, it's just hard to tell."

The over is 4-0-1 in Arroyo’s past five outings but just 12-16 in his starts this season.

Roy Oswalt (13-13, 2.76 ERA)

So how does the 33-year-old from Weir, Mississippi, follow up Roy Halladay’s performance?

He starts by trying to build on his strong regular season that saw him finish first in the National League in WHIP (1.03), fifth in ERA, sixth in complete games (2) and 10th in strikeouts (193).

Since coming over to Philadelphia from Houston, the former Astro has been pitching other-worldly, posting a quality start in 10 of his 13 outings. Discounting an inning of work he put in on Sunday against the Braves to stay fresh, Oswalt has given up only one earned run over his past 27 innings.

Against the Reds he is just as good. Oswalt is 23-3 lifetime against Cincinnati with a 2.81 ERA, limiting the Reds to a .242 batting average.

"There's really no way to explain it from when I first started," Oswalt told the Philadelphia Inquirer. "A few times I actually gave up a few runs against them and my team came back and scored me a few. There really wasn't one direct thing, I guess."

Oswalt has seen three of his past five starts go under the total and is 12-20 against the number this season.



------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hot Lines: Today's best MLB bets
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies (-190, 7)

The Reds have plenty of flash: the team leads the National League in batting average (.278), homers (188) and runs scored (790). But the Phils are the ones with the substance: Philadelphia hasn’t allowed a run in its past 30 innings against the Reds this season.

“We have an approach that we have figured out that works for us, and that we're able to execute," Reds outfielder Jay Bruce told the Associated Press. "I think the biggest thing is the execution factor and the fact that we have an approach that works and that works consistently. It's shown all year that we led the
National League in hitting. So I think that that speaks volumes as well."

Against the Phillies, however, the team’s offense has been more like a whisper than a shout.

Meantime the Phillies haven’t exactly hammered the Reds pitching staff either.

Philadelphia is hitting a meager .230 against the Reds this season and is averaging just a hair over four runs per game against them. The team also has just 21 extra-base hits in seven games against the team from Ohio.

Pick: Under


Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants

The Giants may not need many runs in their series against the Braves. And that’s good, because the team simply can’t hit. It took one of the best Septembers in MLB history by the team’s pitching staff to power it into the postseason and it will be the team’s hurlers that will be the crux of its playoff push toward a National League pennant.

This season, the Giants are hitting a pitiful .197 against the Braves in seven games, averaging a meager three runs per game in those matchups.

But San Francisco pitchers have been the great equalizer, posting a 3.68 ERA against Atlanta, striking out 64 while allowing them to hit a mere .233.

"This year we made every effort to put together the best team we could and do everything we could to improve on last year's record and be contenders all through the season," second-year San Francisco managing partner Bill Neukom told the Associated Press. "So far so good is all you can say."

Again, the Giants won’t score many runs. But with pitchers like theirs, they won’t need much.

Pick: Giants



------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This Day in Baseball
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

On October 8 in Baseball History...

1908 - Later admitting he had nothing on the ball, Christy Mathewson loses to the Cubs 4-2 in the playoff replay of the disputed game on September 23. Three Finger Brown, relieving Jack Pfiester in the first, gets the win.

1915 - The Phillies win their first-ever World Series game behind Grover Cleveland Alexander, 3-1. Red Sox rookie Babe Ruth grounds out as a pinch hitter in the ninth inning of the opener and will sit out the rest of the Series.

1919 - Ed Cicotte pitches Game Seven, and the White Sox play like they mean it. Joe Jackson and Happy Felsch drive in two runs each for a 4-1 win to cut the Reds' lead to four games to three in the best-of-nine Series.

1924 - Giants rookie third baseman Fred Lindstrom is 4-for-5 with two RBI against Walter Johnson, and New York hurler Jack Bentley (16-5) clouts a two-run homer and earns the 6-2 win. The Giants hold a 3-2 World Series edge heading back to Washington.

1927 - Facing elimination at Yankee Stadium, the Pirates are tied with the Yankees 3-3 in the last of the ninth. Reliever Johnny Miljus strikes out Lou Gehrig and Bob Meusel with the bases loaded, but a two-strike wild pitch to Tony Lazzeri allows Earle Combs to score the winning run and capture the World Series.

1929 - Howard Ehmke, a surprise starter for the Philadelphia Athletics, struck out 13 Chicago Cubs to win the opening game of the World Series 3-1.

1930 - George Earnshaw finishes off the Cardinals 7-1 to win the World Series for the Athletics. He is clearly the pitching star of the World Series with two wins and a 0.72 ERA.

1940 - With only one day's rest, Bobo Newsom comes back for the Tigers and nearly has enough to win Game Seven. Cincinnati's Paul Derringer gives up seven hits in the first six innings but sets the Tigers down in order in the final three frames for the 2-1 win, giving the Reds the Series.

1945 - Stan Hack's double takes a tricky bounce over left fielder Hank Greenberg's shoulder with two outs in the 12th inning to score runner Bill Schuster and give the Chicago Cubs an 8-7 win in Game Six to even the World Series with Detroit.

1956 - Don Larsen of the New York Yankees pitched the only perfect game in World Series history for a 2-0 triumph over the Brooklyn Dodgers. Sal Maglie, the opposing pitcher, gave up five hits.

1958 - The Yankees win the World Series on Moose Skowron's three-run home run off Lew Burdette in the eighth inning of Game Seven that puts the game on ice, 6-2. Eddie Mathews strikes out for the 11th time, a record that will stand until l980 when it is broken by Willie Wilson of Kansas City. This is Casey Stengel's seventh championship, tying him with Joe McCarthy.

1959 - The Los Angeles Dodgers win 9-3 to take the World Series over the White Sox. Larry Sherry wins in relief of Johnny Podres in Game Six.

1961 - The Yankees' Whitey Ford set a World Series record for consecutive scoreless innings by extending his streak to 32 innings in a 7-0 triumph over the Cincinnati Reds in Game 4.

1973 - Rusty Staub's two home runs powered the New York Mets to a 9-2 victory over the Cincinnati Reds and a 2-1 lead in the NLCS. Pete Rose of the Reds and Bud Harrelson of the Mets scuffled at second base in the fifth inning after Rose slid hard into the base.

1986 - Mike Scott equaled a playoff record with 14 strikeouts and threw a five-hitter as the Houston Astros defeated the New York Mets 1-0 in the first game of the NLCS. Glenn Davis opened the second inning with a home run off Dwight Gooden.

1988 - Dodgers ace reliever Jay Howell is ejected in the eighth inning of Game Three of the NLCS for having pine tar on his glove and the Mets go on to score five times in the inning on the way to an 8-4 win. Howell will be suspended for three days by the NL.

1989 - Oakland beats Toronto 4-3 in Game Five to advance to the World Series for the second straight year. Rickey Henderson, who hit .400 with eight stolen bases, is named Series MVP.

1995 - Edgar Martinez drives home the tying and winning runs with a double to left field to rally the Mariners to a 6-5 win in the bottom of the 11th inning to win the Division Series. Martinez bats .571 with 10 RBI against the Yankees in the five-game series. Ken Griffey, Jr., who beats the relay throw home to score the winning run, hits five home runs in the series.

 

[CNOTES]

MLB
Write-Up


Friday, October 8

Oswalt is 2-0, 0.67 in his last four starts; six of his last eight starts went under the total. He was 0-2, 6.75 in two starts vs Cincinnati this year, back when he pitched for Houston. Arroyo is 3-0, 2.25 in his last four starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five-- he didn't pitch against Phillies this year. Reds had only one baserunner in Game 1, and Oswalt has been as hot as Halladay, so Arroyo has to keep his team in game early.

Hanson was hit by a line drive in BP Thursday, still expected to go here; he is 1-0, 1.99 in his last five starts- under is 6-2 in his last eight starts. He allowed one run in seven IP in an August 6 no-decision against the Giants. Cain is 4-1, 2.91 in his last five starts; he lost 3-0 to Braves on August 7 (three runs/five IP). Atlanta hitters struck out 14 times last night in dominant start by Linceum. Home team is 6-2 in Giant-Brave games this season.

 

[CNOTES]

MLB


Friday, October 8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

6:07 PM
CINCINNATI vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games at home
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

9:37 PM
ATLANTA vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Atlanta is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Atlanta is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
San Francisco is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Atlanta
San Francisco is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home

 

[CNOTES]

MLB
Dunkel


Cincinnati at Philadelphia
The Phillies look to follow up their Game 1 win and take advantage of a Cincinnati team that is 2-8 in its last 10 games as a road underdog. Philadelphia is the pick (-190) according to Dunkel, which has the Phillies favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-190). Here are all of today's picks.

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 8

Game 963-964: Cincinnati at Philadelphia (6:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Arroyo) 14.816; Philadelphia (Oswalt) 15.862
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-190); 7
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-190); Under

Game 965-966: Atlanta at San Francisco (9:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hanson) 15.165; San Francisco (Cain) 15.467
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

 

[CNOTES]

MLB
Short Sheet


Friday, 10/8/2010

** NL Division Series - Best of 5 - Game 2 - PHI LEADS 1-0
CINCINNATI at PHILADELPHIA, 6:05 PM ET TBS
ARROYO: CIN 2-11 at Philadelphia
OSWALT: 22-3 TSR vs. Cincinnati

** NL Division Series - Best of 5 - Game 2 - SF LEADS 1-0
ATLANTA at SAN FRANCISCO, 9:35 PM ET TBS
HANSON: 9-2 Under after giving up 0 ER last outing
CAIN: 14-3 TSR after walking 1 hitter or less BB outings

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

 

[varkeyboy]

I like the plays! Best of luck.

 

[CNOTES]

Playoff Record:

7-9-0 43.75% -1460

Saturday, October 9Game Score Status Pick Amount

Tampa Bay - 5:00 PM ET Tampa Bay +123 500*****
Texas - Under 9 500

Minnesota - 8:30 PM ET NY Yankees -171 500*****
NY Yankees - Under 9 500

 

[CNOTES]

MLB
Long Sheet


Saturday, October 8

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA BAY (96 - 68) at TEXAS (92 - 72) - 5:05 PM
MATT GARZA (R) vs. COLBY LEWIS (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 31-50 (-22.3 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 12-29 (-19.5 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 180-146 (-13.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GARZA is 11-16 (-11.5 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GARZA is 11-21 (-14.6 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GARZA is 3-13 (-13.7 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GARZA is 9-19 (-14.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GARZA is 4-14 (-13.1 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GARZA is 3-12 (-11.1 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GARZA is 0-8 (-9.4 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
TEXAS is 179-148 (+27.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
TEXAS is 52-39 (+15.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 179-147 (+11.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 35-15 (+13.6 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -150 over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 172-133 (+17.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 37-16 (+16.7 Units) against the money line when playing on Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 43-29 (+8.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
LEWIS is 14-18 (-10.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
LEWIS is 13-17 (-9.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS is 4-4 (+0.8 Units) against TAMPA BAY this season
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.8 Units)

MATT GARZA vs. TEXAS since 1997
GARZA is 5-3 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 3.97 and a WHIP of 1.094.
His team's record is 6-3 (+2.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-5. (-2.3 units)

COLBY LEWIS vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
LEWIS is 1-0 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 8.00 and a WHIP of 1.889.
His team's record is 2-0 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (+0.0 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (94 - 70) at NY YANKEES (97 - 67) - 8:35 PM
BRIAN DUENSING (L) vs. PHIL HUGHES (R)
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 90-65 (+11.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
MINNESOTA is 62-47 (+7.4 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
MINNESOTA is 62-44 (+7.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
MINNESOTA is 81-66 (+11.4 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 18-8 (+12.0 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 94-70 (+11.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MINNESOTA is 19-8 (+8.8 Units) against the money line when playing on Saturday this season.
MINNESOTA is 38-19 (+15.8 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 41-41 (-13.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
NY YANKEES are 23-26 (-9.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
NY YANKEES are 98-67 (-2.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
NY YANKEES are 107-83 (-47.8 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Saturday since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY YANKEES is 6-2 (+3.8 Units) against MINNESOTA this season
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.7 Units)

BRIAN DUENSING vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
DUENSING is 0-1 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 9.64 and a WHIP of 1.713.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

PHIL HUGHES vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
HUGHES is 0-0 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 5.40 and a WHIP of 2.000.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[CNOTES]

MLB


Saturday, October 8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Payoff Pitch: Today's Best Mound Matchup
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Matt Garza, Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colby Lewis, Texas Rangers

Matt Garza (15-10, 3.91 ERA)

If not for the road struggles of James Shields, Garza would have taken the bump in Game 2 in Tampa Bay.

Now, the 26-year-old will be counted on to keep the team’s season alive.

Garza has had a rough September but got his act together down the stretch to help his team clinch the American League East Division. In his past two outings, he has allowed just four earned runs over his past 14 innings, including 11 strikeouts against only one walk.

The right-hander also has been solid in his postseason career, allowing only 11 earned runs over 25 innings in four career starts, including recording 25 strikeouts. In 2008 he was named the ALCS MVP when he helped the Rays get past the Red Sox.

“It's not bigger than any other, just got to go out there and do my job,” Garza, who won Game 7 in Boston in 2008, told MLB.com. “Just go out there and try to win. There's no tomorrow, there's no day after, it's just go out there and win, do what we do best, and that's play hard, pitching and defense. Just go out there and keep these guys at bay for a while.”

In his career against the Rangers, Garza is 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA and is allowing them to bat a meager .229. Four of his past five starts have gone over the total and he has a record of 18-14 against the number this season.

Colby Lewis (12-13, 3.72 ERA)

The 31-year-old has been one of the steadiest members of the Rangers rotation this season. But now the pressure is on.

Lewis has yielded two or fewer runs in each of his past five starts, going a total of 30.1 innings and yielding a meager eight runs during that span. Overall, opponents are hitting just .227 against him this season. He also ranks seventh in the AL in strikeouts (196) and ninth in WHIP (1.19).

"Basically, I'm just going to do what I have been trying to do all year -- go out, get ahead of guys, make quality pitches and get quick outs," Lewis told MLB.com. "Kind of like what those two guys did. Get quick outs and go deep into the game."

Not bad for a player who spent the past two seasons with Hiroshima in Japan compiling a record of 26-17.

Lewis has been money in the bank for the under players this season, going 10-20 against the total this year.



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Hot Lines: Today's best MLB bets
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Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers (-125, 9)

The Rays haven’t been an underdog often this season.

But after scoring only one run on eight hits and striking out 23 times in the first two games of the series, it appears the Rangers will become the final current team in the Majors to win a playoff series.

The Rays, however, have the top-ranked road offense in the bigs, scoring 451 away runs, 52 more than any other team. The squad also is hitting.251 on the road and finds a way to get on base consistently, posting a .334 on-base percentage.

Meantime, the pressure continues to mount on the Rangers.

Texas must do something it has never done before in its franchise history with a pitching staff that has a 3.65 home ERA, smack-dab in the middle of the pack.

The Rangers may close out the series yet. Just not on Saturday.

Pick: Rays.


Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees (-172, 9)

We all know that the Minnesota Twins can’t win in New York City.

But they might have a shot if their pitching staff wouldn’t be such a disaster. The Twins pitchers have been mauled by the Bronx Bombers, who scored 11 runs on 21 hits the first two games of the series.

"Our lineup is so deep, there's never a reason to give up," Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira told MLB.com. "There's some teams where maybe two or three guys carry the team and, if you're in a big hole, it's tough to get out of. But with our lineup, we can be down four, five, six runs and still have a chance to score seven or eight. We just haven't given up all year."

And the team’s bats haven’t been much better. Minnesota is 0-for-10 with runners in scoring position this series after hitting .285 in the clutch the entire season. The team also has lost a staggering 11 straight postseason games, two shy of the MLB record.

Pick: Yankees.



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This Day in Baseball
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On October 9 in Baseball History...

1905 - At Philadelphia, Christy Mathewson of the Giants outpitches 26-game-winner Eddie Plank 3-0 in the first game of an all-shutout Series.

1906 - Snow flies at West Side Park as the first one-city World Series opens with the 116-win Cubs heavy favorites. White Sox starter Nick Altrock outduels Three Finger Brown for a 2-1 victory.

1910 - Nap Lajoie, in a batting race with Ty Cobb, collected eight hits for Cleveland in a season-ending doubleheader with the Browns. The hits were somewhat tainted, however, as St. Louis third baseman Red Corriden played back as Lajoie bunted safely six times. Regardless, Cobb was awarded the batting title by a fraction of a point.

1916 - Babe Ruth outpitched Sherry Smith of the Brooklyn Dodgers as the Boston Red Sox won the longest World Series game, 2-1 in 14 innings.

1919 - White Sox starter Lefty Williams gets just one man out in the first inning and the Reds go on to a 10-5 victory. Cincinnati wins the best-of-nine World Series in eight games. A year after the 1919 Series ends, the White Sox will become the Black Sox, and eight players will be barred from baseball for taking part in throwing the Series.

1926 - Grover Alexander scatters eight hits in Game Six while the Cards tee off at Yankee Stadium for a 10-2 romp that sends the Series to a seventh game.

1928 - Babe Ruth hit three home runs in a World Series game for the second time in his career as the Yankees beat the St. Louis Cardinals 7-3.

1934 - Dizzy Dean of St. Louis blanked the Detroit Tigers 11-0 in the seventh game of the World Series.

1938 - The Yankees become the first team to win three successive World Championships, defeating the Cubs 8-3. Red Ruffing wins his second game as the Yankees sweep the Cubs for the second time in six years.

1944 - The Cardinals top the Browns, 3-1, and win the World Series in six games.

1949 - The Yankees pound the Dodgers 10-6 to win the World Series in five games. Pinch hitter and third baseman Bobby Brown is the hitting hero, batting .500 and driving in five runs.

1956 - The Dodgers bounce back after Don Larsen's perfect game to tie the series in Game Six. Clem Labine comes out of the bullpen to pitch a 1-0 victory over the Yankees in 10 innings.

1957 - With Warren Spahn stricken by the flu, Lew Burdette, pitching with two days rest, hurls his third complete game and second shutout to beat New York 5-0 to win the World Series.

1958 - Bob Turley of the Yankees pitched 6 2/3 scoreless innings in relief to beat the Milwaukee Braves 6-2 for the World Series title. New York became the first team since 1925 to win the World Series after being down 1-3.

1966 - Dave McNally wraps up Baltimore's brilliant pitching display, and a World Championship, with a four-hit, 1-0 win. Frank Robinson's home run off Don Drysdale gives Baltimore a surprising sweep of the defending champion Dodgers. The 33 consecutive scoreless innings pitched by Baltimore sets a World Series record.

1967 - Roger Maris homers for the Cardinals in the ninth inning, but Jim Lonborg's 3-1 win sends the World Series back to Boston.

1971 - The Orioles win the opener of the World Series over the Pirates 5-3. Dave McNally tosses a three-hitter and Merv Rettenmund adds a three-run homer.

1977 - The New York Yankees rallied for three runs in the ninth inning to beat the Kansas City Royals 5-3 and take the American League pennant in the fifth game of the playoffs.

1984 - The Tigers win the World Series opener as Jack Morris pitches a complete-game 3-2 victory over San Diego. Larry Herndon's two-run home run in the fifth provides the winning margin.

1988 - The Oakland Athletics completed a four-game sweep in the ALCS by beating the Boston Red Sox 4-1. Jose Canseco tied an AL playoff record with his third home run of the series and Dennis Eckersley set a major league playoff mark with his fourth save.

1989 - The Giants win their first NL pennant since 1962 by defeating the Cubs 3-2 in Game Five of the NLCS. Will Clark bats .650 in the series with eight RBI to win MVP honors.

1996 - Bernie Williams homered in the 11th inning to give New York a 5-4 victory over Baltimore in Game 1 of the AL championship series. The Yankees got a lot of help from a fan when Jeff Maier, 12, created a game-tying homer by Derek Jeter in the eighth when he reached out and grabbed a ball that was about to be caught by Tony Tarasco.

 

[CNOTES]

MLB
Dunkel


Tampa Bay at Texas
The Rays look to stay alive in the series and build on their 5-1 record in their last 6 games as dropping the first two games of a series. Tampa Bay is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Rays favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+110). Here are all of today's picks.

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 9

Game 967-968: Tampa Bay at Texas (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Garza) 15.736; Texas (Lewis) 15.679
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Texas (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+110); Under

Game 969-970: Minnesota at NY Yankees (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Duensing) 15.354; NY Yankees (Hughes) 16.485
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-170); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-170); Over

 

[CNOTES]

MLB
Short Sheet


Saturday, 10/9/2010

** AL Division Series - Best of 5 - Game 3 - TEX LEADS 2-0
TAMPA BAY at TEXAS, 5:05 PM ET TBS
GARZA: 33-15 Under when the total is 9 to 9.5
LEWIS: 2-12 TSR when working on 5 or 6 days rest

** AL Division Series - Best of 5 - Game 3 - NY LEADS 2-0
MINNESOTA at NY YANKEES, 8:35 PM ET TBS
DUENSING: MIN 1-11 at Yankees
HUGHES: 15-7 Over as favorite of -150 or more

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

 

[CNOTES]

MLB


Saturday, October 9

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Trend Report
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5:07 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. TEXAS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing on the road against Texas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games on the road
Texas is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas's last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

8:37 PM
MINNESOTA vs. NY YANKEES
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Minnesota's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
NY Yankees are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 6 games

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday's six-pack

College football trends for Saturday's games........
-- Stanford covered 10 of its last 12 home games.

-- Western Michigan covered two of last 10 as a road underdog.

-- Road team covered last five Hawai'i-Fresno State games.

-- Oregon State covered last seven times they were dog of 7+ points.

-- Arkansas State is 1-11 vs spread in last 12 Sun Belt road games.

-- Colorado is 4-10 vs spread last 14 times they left their state.


************************************************** *


Saturday's List of 13: Random thoughts on a sunny day

13) Finally some drama in the baseball playoffs, as Giants blew 4-0 lead and lost to Atlanta in extra innings, evening the series 1-1. With the other three series all 2-0, MLB needs a five-game series. This may be it.

12) Road teams are 4-0 so far in AL playoffs; since Wild Card came into being 15 years ago, team with home field edge is just 31-29 in ALDS… …in 40 years of the LCSs, teams with home field edge are just 39-41, so home field in baseball is way overblown.

11) Joe Posnanski of SI.com points out that teams who win the first two games of a 5-game series are 54-5 in that series, with 39 sweeps. Teams that win the 1st game, lose the 2nd are just 15-22 in those series.

10) Oakland Raiders have been blacked out on TV in their home market for 79 of their last 123 home games; no sellout this Sunday either, and that with the exciting Chargers in town.

9) Syracuse had last week off and played I-AA teams Maine/Colgate the two weeks before that; when did Jim Boeheim start making the football schedule in central New York?

8) ESPN.com had a good tidbit this week; the 1991 Astros started Dave Mlicki in Game 2 of a playoffs series; he had a 6.71 ERA that year, the worst ERA ever for a pitcher who started Game 2 of a playoff series. Rays' James Shields is 5th on that list for this year’s ERA.

7) If I was still married it would have been a rough week; there was a football game on TV every night this week. Those weeks were never pleasant in the married years.

6) Who is more qualified to manage a big league ballclub, Wally Backman or Don Mattingly? Now before you answer, go google their managerial experience-- Backman is way more qualified; he's actually managed in the minor leagues for a few years. Mattingly has never run his own team.

5) There is a reality show on A&E where Tony Danza is a Special Ed teacher at a public school in Philadelphia. Looks like it could be good.

4) Looks like Rutgers has themselves a solid QB in backup Chas Dodd, who strangely enough is from South Carolina. Kid threw for 322 yards in Friday night's win over UConn; he might not be backup anymore.

3) Starting today, Alabama's next six opponents will all have had a bye the weekend before playing the top-ranked Crimson Tide.

2) Eight playoff games so far, three managers ejected. Umpires no longer get the wide berth of respect they used to receive.

1) I’m thinking major league baseball is going to have a challenge system like the NFL’s pretty soon. Too many calls are being missed in these high profile games. Now a check swing or a ball/strike call will never be able to be challenged, hopefully, but in my opinion, tag plays and balls hit down each line will soon be subject to review.

 

[varkeyboy]

good luck today Cnotes!