CNOTES 2025-2026 FOOTBALL SCHEDULE + NEWS, NOTES BEST BETS !

[Udog]

NFL
Weather Report

Monday, November 10

NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 10

Monday’s game
Eagles @ Packers (-2.5)
Eagles (6-2)
Eagles are 6-0 when they score 20+ points.
Eagles have been outgained in seven of eight games.
Eagles ran ball for 276 yards LW (under 100 in previous five games)
QB Hurts is 57-25 as an NFL starter.
Sirianni is 59-25 as an NFL coach.


Under Sirianni, Eagles are 7-4 ATS as a road underdog.
Philly is 12-6 ATS in last 18 games coming off a win.
Last two weeks, opponents ran ball for only 89-68 yards.
Last six weeks, opponents’ team total: over 6-0
Eagles are 13-2-1 ATS last 16 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.


Packers (5-2-1)
Green Bay is 5-0-1 when it scores 27+ points.
Packers held six of eight opponents under 100 rushing yards.
In their two losses, Packers were held to 10-13 points.
QB Love is 24-19-1 as an NFL starter
LaFleur is 75-40-1 as an NFL head coach.


Packers are 8-6-1 ATS last 15 games as a home favorite.
Packers are 5-8-1 ATS last 14 games coming off a loss.
Green Bay held last two opponents to 295/265 yards.
Opponents’ team total: over 4-1 last five games.
NFC North home favorites are 5-2 ATS in non-divisional games.


Eagles beat Green Bay 34-29 in last year’s playoffs.
Philly won last three series games, by 5-12-7 points.
Teams split last six meetings in Green Bay.
Over is 4-3 in last seven series games.

 

[CNOTES]

Monday, November 10​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
PHI at GB	08:15 PM	GB -1.0***** U 45.0*****	+500 +500

 

[CNOTES]

CNOTES NFL BEST BETS !

11/10/2025.................1 - 1 - 0............50.00%.............- 0.50
11/09/2025.................3 - 9 - 0............25.00%.............-34.50
11/06/2025.................1 - 1 - 0............50.00%.............- 0.50
11/02/2025.................4 - 8 - 0............33.33%.............- 24.00

TOTALS......................9 -19 - 0............32.14%.............- 59.50

 

[CNOTES]

Tuesday’s 6-pack:
Week 11 NFL spreads:
— Jets @ New England (-11.5)
— Commanders vs Dolphins (-2.5) (@ Madrid, Spain)
— Bengals @ Pittsburgh (-4.5)
— Chargers (-2.5) @ Jacksonville
— Buccaneers @ Buffalo (-5.5)
— Bears @ Minnesota (-3.5)

Thought of the Day
“It’s important to make someone happy, but it’s most important to start with yourself.”

Tuesday’s quiz
In the movie The Rewrite, Hugh Grant plays an Oscar-winning screen writer who leaves Hollywood when his career takes a downturn; he gets a job teaching writing at which eastern college?

Monday’s quiz
Colts’ QB Daniel Jones played his college football at Duke.

Sunday’s quiz
Cal-Irvine’s sports teams are known as the Anteaters.

***************************************

Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but…….​

— Eagles 10, Packers 7
NFL’s first scoreless first half in two years.
Eagles in first half: 31 plays, 94 yards, no points.
Eagles first 3 drives in 2nd half: 17 plays, 136 yards, 10 points.
Eagles are 14-2-1 ATS last 17 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.

Green Bay averaged only 4.0 yards/pass play.
Green Bay is 0-3 when they score less than 27 points.
In their three losses, Packers were held to 10-13-7 points.
Packers are 5-9-1 ATS last 15 games coming off a loss.

— New Jersey Giants fired coach Brian Daboll Monday; Giants were 9-7-1 in Daboll’s first season, but were 11-33 since then, including 2-8 this season. Daboll was making $5M/year, os he gets roughly $7.5M to take a hike.
Daboll was doing a good job bringing along rookie QB Jaxson Dart this year; will be interesting to see who the Giants hire as their new coach.

— Jaxson Dart, by the way, is the first QB EVER with a rushing TD in five straight games.

— Rookie QB’s who start get coaches fired; Tennessee fired its coach this year, while they’re starting rookie Cam Ward. It is almost like the rich humans who own these teams cannot comprehend that it takes time to develop a quarterback who wins games.

— Minnesota Vikings had eight false starts Sunday, in a home game, the most by any NFL home team since 2009.

— NFL divisional trends:

AFC East
Underdogs 5-2 ATS divisional games
10-6 ATS non-divisional underdog

AFC North
Home teams 4-0 ATS divisional games
10-19 ATS non-divisional games

AFC South
Favorites 4-1 ATS divisional games
12-13 ATS non-divisional games

AFC West
7-4 ATS non-divisional home favorite
1-6 ATS non-divisional road favorite

NFC East
4-7 ATS non-divisional home games
6-8 ATS non-divisional underdog

NFC North
Favorites 3-1 ATS divisional games

NFC South
6-9 ATS non-divisional home games

NFC West
Home teams 1-5 ATS divisional games
17-6 ATS non-divisional games

— College football trends, conference games:
American
Favorites 24-15 ATS

ACC
Road teams 31-20 ATS

Big 18
Home favorites 14-18 ATS
Home underdogs 14-10 ATS

Big X
Favorites 33-17 ATS

Conference USA
Home underdogs 9-5 ATS

Mid-American
Home teams 26-8 ATS

Mountain West
Home favorites 10-9 ATS
Home underdogs 5-5 ATS

SEC
Home teams 25-21 ATS

Sun Belt
Home teams 21-16 ATS

— Famous birthdays, November 11th:
Stanley Tucci, 65
Demi Moore, 63
Leonardo DiCaprio, 51
Mark Sanchez, 39
Stedman Bailey, 35
Ladd McConkey, 24

— RIP to Lenny Wilkens, who passed away over the weekend at age 88; he is one of only five people who was inducted into the Basketball Hall of Fame as both a player and a coach.

He scored 16.5 ppg in a 15-year playing career, then coached for 30 more years, winning 1,412 games, including the 1979 NBA title with the Seattle SuperSonics.

He is the only person to be in both the NBA’s 75th season celebration lists, as a player and as a coach.
RIP, sir.

— Guy in California won $2.04B (that’s billion, with a B) last week; after taxes, he took home $628M. Dude paid $1.42B in taxes.

— North Carolina senior captain Seth Trimble broke his left arm in practice Sunday, will have surgery this week. No word on how long he’ll be out of the Tar Heels’ lineup. North Carolina is off to a 2-0 start, including a win over Kansas.

— Iowa State 96, Mississippi State 80
Cyclones shot 65% inside the arc, led by 18 at the half.
Miss State had 26 turnovers, Cyclones only 9.
Game was played on a neutral court in South Dakota.
Game like these are important to see early in the season, as we try to get a handle on which teams and which leagues are the best this season.

— Santa Clara 87, Xavier 68
Musketeers shot only 37% inside the arc in an ugly home loss.
Xavier had only three players score more than four points.
Impressive win for the WCC here.

 

[Udog]

WEEK 11

 

[Udog]

NFL

Week 11

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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 13

New York VS New England
The total has gone OVER in 12 of NY Jets' last 16 games.
NY Jets is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games.
NY Jets is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games against New England.
NY Jets is 2-16 SU in its last 18 games against New England.
New England is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games.
New England is 7-0 SU in its last 7 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 6 games against NY Jets.

Sunday, November 16

Washington VS Miami
Washington is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games.
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games.
Washington is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games against Miami.
Washington is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games against Miami.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Miami's last 9 games.
Miami is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games against Washington.
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Miami's last 11 games at home.

Chicago VS Minnesota
Chicago is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games.
Chicago is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games.
Chicago is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 games against Minnesota.
Chicago is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games against Minnesota.
Minnesota is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games.
Minnesota is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games against Chicago.

Houston VS Tennessee
Houston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 10 games.
Houston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games.
Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games against Tennessee.
Tennessee is 4-16 ATS in its last 20 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games.
Tennessee is 1-14 SU in its last 15 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tennessee's last 7 games against Houston.

Carolina VS Atlanta
Carolina is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games.
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Carolina's last 20 games.
Carolina is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games.
Carolina is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games against Atlanta.
Atlanta is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Atlanta's last 18 games.
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games against Carolina.

Tampa Bay VS Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games.
Tampa Bay is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games.
Tampa Bay is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 games against Buffalo.
Tampa Bay is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games against Buffalo.
Buffalo is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games.
Buffalo is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games.
Buffalo is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games at home.

Los Angeles VS Jacksonville
LA Chargers is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Chargers' last 5 games.
LA Chargers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
LA Chargers is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games against Jacksonville.
Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Jacksonville's last 8 games against LA Chargers.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games at home.

Cincinnati VS Pittsburgh
Cincinnati is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games.
Cincinnati is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games.
Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games against Pittsburgh.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games against Cincinnati.
Pittsburgh is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Pittsburgh's last 16 games when playing at home against Cincinnati.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference conference.

Seattle VS Los Angeles
Seattle is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games.
Seattle is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games.
Seattle is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games against LA Rams.
LA Rams is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams' last 6 games.
LA Rams is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams' last 5 games against Seattle.

San Francisco VS Arizona
San Francisco is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games.
San Francisco is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games against Arizona.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 8 games on the road.
Arizona is 13-7 ATS in its last 20 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games.
Arizona is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arizona's last 8 games against San Francisco.

Kansas City VS Denver
Kansas City is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games.
Kansas City is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games.
Kansas City is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games against Denver.
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Denver's last 12 games.
Denver is 7-0 SU in its last 7 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games against Kansas City.
Denver is 10-0 SU in its last 10 games at home.

Baltimore VS Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Baltimore's last 10 games.
Baltimore is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games against Cleveland.
Baltimore is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games against Cleveland.
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Baltimore's last 15 games on the road.
Cleveland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games.
Cleveland is 2-13 SU in its last 15 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games against Baltimore.

Monday, November 17

Dallas VS Las Vegas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas' last 6 games.
Dallas is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road.
Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Las Vegas.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas' last 7 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference conference.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Las Vegas' last 5 games.
Las Vegas is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games.
Las Vegas is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games at home.
Las Vegas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas.


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[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 11

 

[CNOTES]

Wednesday’s 6-pack:
Odds on guys to be the Giants’ next coach:
7-1- Mike McCarthy
8-1- Klint Kubiak
9-1- Steve Spagnuolo
19-2- Lou Anarumo
10-1- Kliff Kingsbury
12-1- Jesse Minter, Jeff Hafley

Quote of the Day
“We believe our pitching is a strength. Doesn’t mean we wouldn’t want to add more pitching. We will certainly be opportunistic on the pitching side. There are some things that we’d like to do on the pitching side, but run scoring was the thing that got in our way more than anything. And we’ve got to add to that.”
Pirates’ GM Ben Cherington

Wednesday’s quiz
Who was the basketball coach at Boston College, last time they made the NCAA Tournament?
(Hint: He played in the ABA and NBA)

Tuesday’s quiz
In the movie The Rewrite, Hugh Grant plays an Oscar-winning screen writer who leaves Hollywood when his career takes a downturn; he gets a job teaching writing at SUNY-Binghamton.

Monday’s quiz
Colts’ QB Daniel Jones played his college football at Duke.

**********************************

Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings……​

— Michigan 85, Wake Forest 84
Deacons led 77-70, missed nine of last 10 shots from floor.
Michigan was 25-37 on foul line, Wake 16-21
Michigan big man Mara had 18 points, 13 rebounds, six assists.
Watching this game, it felt a lot like March. Excellent game.

— Illinois 81, Texas Tech 77
Stojakovic scored 23 points in 26:00 off the bench.
JT Toppin scored 35 points for Tech
Illinois was 16-23 on foul line, Red Raiders 3-4

— Gonzaga 90, Creighton 63
Zags outscored Creighton 46-25 in second half.

Rough start to season for Big East:
DePaul lost to Buffalo
Xavier lost to Santa Clara
Marquette lost by 23 to Indiana
St John’s lost to Arizona, giving up 103 points.
Villanova lost to BYU.
Providence lost to Virginia Tech

— Florida 78, Florida State 76
Gators were favored by 16.5 points.
Florida out-rebounded the Seminoles, 58-36
Florida shot 57.6% inside the arc, was minus-8 in turnovers.

— Louisville 96, Kentucky 88
Louisville had only six turnovers, shot 62.1% inside the arc.
Cardinals were 13-40 on the arc, 18-29 inside the arc.
Louisville led 53-46 at halftime.

— Cincinnati 74, Dayton 62
Dayton shot 2-26 behind the arc.
Cincinnati led 27-11 early, turned ball over 24 times (minus-11)

— Ole Miss 83, Memphis 77
Ole Miss made 8 of their 13 3-point shots.
Rebels were 21-33 on foul line, Memphis 14-20.

— Cal-Santa Barbara 92, Sacramento State 87
Gauchos shot 13-27 on arc, scored 1.26 points/possession.
Thru three games, UCSB’s eFG% is 62.6% (#17 in country)

— Arkansas State 86, Missouri State 85
Missouri State led by 16 late in the first half.
Arkansas State scored 33 points in 1st half, 53 in 2nd half.

— Central Connecticut 60, Boston College 59
Eagles have already lost to FAU and now this game. Not good for a program that hasn’t had a winning record in the ACC since 2011. BC led this game by 11 early in the second half.

— Famous birthdays, November 12th:
Al Michaels, 81
Neil Young, 80
Jody Davis, 69
Ryan Gosling, 45
Anne Hathaway, 43
Charlie Morton, 42
Russell Westbrook, 37
Marcell Ozuna, 35
Dexter Lawrence, 28
Terrell Burgess, 27
Addison Barger, 26
Paolo Banchero, 23

— New Jersey Jets are the only team since 1950 with zero or one takeaway in their first nine games of a season.
Since 1950, fewest takeaways in first nine games:
1- Jets, 2025
3- Jets, 2014
4- Falcons, 2019
4- Steelers 2011

— Tampa Bay Bucs’ rookie WR Emeka Egbuka was the 2011 national champion in the Pitch, Hit and Run baseball competition, when he was 10 years old.

— When the Houston Texans rallied to beat the Jaguars 36-29 Sunday, it was the first-ever NFL game that ended with a 36-29 score.

— LSU fired football coach Brian Kelly when he had $54M left on his contract; now the school is trying to weasel out of paying Kelly what they owe him, A lawyer who is familiar with cases like this says that when all is said and done, it is highly unlikely that Kelly won’t get all that money.

— Listening to lot of early season college basketball games, have already heard 3-4 guys say that this is the best freshman class in college basketball in the last 20 years..

— St John’s is expected to be a Top 5/Top 10 team this year, but they only have one player from New York City, which is unusual for them.

— ESPN is putting out Bracketology already, predicting the 68-team brackets for the NCAA Tournament, which starts more than four months from now. Give it a rest guys, let the kids play some games before projecting the tournament.

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday’s 6-pack:
College football spreads for this week:
— Clemson @ Louisville (-2.5)
— South Florida (-9.5) @ Navy
— Arizona @ Cincinnati (-6.5)
— Arkansas @ LSU (-5.5)
— Oklahoma @ Alabama (-5.5)
— Iowa @ USC (-6.5)

Quote of the Day
“If you got me on fantasy, get rid of me.”
Eagles WR AJ Brown, upset with his usage this season

Thursday’s quiz
What team did Shaquille O’Neal finish his year 19-year NBA career with?

Wednesday’s quiz
Al Skinner was the basketball coach at Boston College, last time they made the NCAA Tournament.

Tuesday’s quiz
In the movie The Rewrite, Hugh Grant plays an Oscar-winning screen writer who leaves Hollywood when his career takes a downturn; he gets a job teaching writing at SUNY-Binghamton.

***********************************

Thursday’s Den: Happy Felix Unger Day!!!​

“On November 13, Felix Unger was asked to leave his place of residence. That request came from his wife……..”
So began every episode of The Odd Couple, one of the funniest TV shows ever, about a finicky photographer sharing an apartment in New York City with a sloppy sportswriter.

I spent countless hours watching re-runs on Odd Couple reruns on TV; the show is still out there on TV, on Paramount+ or Prime Video. Great stuff.

Happy Felix Unger Day!!!!

By the way, the late Garry Marshall was one of the creators of The Odd Couple; November 13 was his birthday.

— Jameis Winston is starting at QB for the Giants this week, when they host Green Bay in their first game under interim coach Mike Kafka.
Winston has a 36-51 record as an NFL starter; he was 2-5 starting for Cleveland last year.

— Cardinals’ WR Marvin Harrison Jr had an appendectomy, is out for a few weeks; Harrison has caught 31 passes for 492 yards and three TD’s.

— You think about the NFL games in Europe that start at 9:30am here in New York, then think about the poor souls that work in Las Vegas sports books. Those games start at 6:30am out there, so the people who take the bets probably have to be there at 5:30 or so. Not great; the casinos are open 24 hours a day, the sports books are not.

— Famous birthdays, November 13th:
Wes Parker, 86
Joe Mantegna, 78
Chris Noth, 71
Whoopi Goldberg, 70
Rex Linn, 69
Jimmy Kimmel, 58
Pat Hentgen, 57
Gerard Butler, 56
Ron Artest, 46
Asdrubal Cabrera, 40
Trevor Rogers, 28
Brett Baty, 26

— Central Michigan 38, Buffalo 19
Chippewas scored two defensive touchdowns.
Buffalo gained 398 yards, but turned ball over five times.
Central Michigan is bowl eligible for first time in four years.

— Northern Illinois 45, UMass 3
Huskies led 31-0 at halftime.
NIU outgained UMass, 433-262.
Huskies ran for 318 yards, only threw 8 passes the whole game.

— Toledo 24, Miami 3
Both teams turned ball over three times.
With the win, Toledo is bowl eligible.
Miami was 5-16 on third down, 2-6 on fourth down.

— Kent State 42, Akron 35 OT
Kent State led this game 35-17 in the 4th quarter.
Akron forced OT, scoring a TD with 1:59 left in regulation.
Kent QB DeShields threw for 317 yards, five TD’s.

— Western Michigan 17, Ohio U 13
Western Michigan becomes bowl eligible with the win.
Both teams ran ball for over 200 yards.
Teams combined to convert only 3-19 third down plays.

— Movie of the Day: PS I Love You (2007)- A young widow discovers that her late husband left her ten messages intended to help ease her pain, and to help her start a new life.

Gerard Butler plays the husband, Hillary Swank the widow; also in the cast: Gina Gershon, Lisa Kudrow, Kathy Bates, Harry Connick Jr. Very good movie.

— Michigan-Northwestern have a football game at Wrigley Field this week; Northwestern’s home stadium is being renovated this year. Wildcats are 5-4 right now, Michigan 7-2.

— Dallas Mavericks fired GM Nico Harrison after the team started out 3-8; Dallas traded star Luka Doncic to the Lakers last year, then went 39-43, aggravating a lot of the fanbase; they won the draft lottery and took Cooper Flagg this year, but the team is off to another rough start.

— NBA trends, dealing with teams playing back/back nights:
Home teams who played on road night before are 1-8 ATS
Home teams who played at home night before are 15-9 ATS
Road teams who played at home night before are 5-3 ATS
Road teams who played on road night before are 11-10 ATS

 

[Udog]

NFL
Weather Report

Thursday, November 13

NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 11

Thursday’s game
Jets @ Patriots (-12.5)
Jets (2-7)
Jets won last games, scoring 39-27 points.
Five of Jets’ seven losses were by 7 or fewer points.
Jets ran both a kick/punt back for a TD last week.
Fields is 16-36 as an NFL starter.
Aaron Glenn is 2-7 as a head coach.


Jets threw the ball for only 42 yards in last week’s win.
Jets are 3-1 ATS as a road underdog this year.
Jets are 3-12-1 ATS in last 16 AFC East road games.
Jets are 8-14-1 ATS last 23 games coming off a win.
Jets are minus-10 in turnovers this season.


Patriots (8-2)
Patriots won their last seven games (6-1 ATS).
Patriots were held to 13-14 points in their losses.
Opponents’ team total: under 7-1 last eight
QB Maye is 11-11 as an NFL starter.
Vrabel is 64-50 as an NFL head coach.


Patriots are 2-5 ATS last seven games as a home favorite.
NE is 10-9-2 ATS in last 21 games coming off a win.
Patriots held seven of ten foes under 100 rushing yards.
Patriots held four of last five under 300 total yards.
New England is 5-7 ATS last 12 AFC East home games.


New England won 17 of last 19 series games.
Jets are 1-9 SU/2-7-1 ATS in last 10 visits to Foxboro.
Under is 6-1 in last seven meetings.
NFL-wide, home favorites are 13-10 ATS in divisional games.

 

[CNOTES]

Friday’s 6-pack:
NFL spreads for this week:
— Packers (-7.5) @ NJ Giants
— 49ers (-2.5) @ Arizona
— Ravens (-7.5) @ Cleveland
— Chiefs (-3.5) @ Denver
— Lions @ Philadelphia (-2.5)
— Cowboys (-3.5) @ Las Vegas

Quote of the Day
“The city of Dallas, the fans, the players, they’ll always have a special place in my heart. I thought I was going to stay there forever, but I didn’t. So that will always be a special place for me. I will always call it home. But right now, I’m focused on the Lakers and trying to move on. But obviously, always there will be a part of me there. But just trying to move on and focus on what I’m doing here.”
Luka Doncic

Friday’s quiz
Who is the all-time leader in passing yardage for Iowa State?

Thursday’s quiz
Shaquille O’Neal finished his year 19-year NBA career with the Celtics.

Wednesday’s quiz
Al Skinner was the basketball coach at Boston College, last time they made the NCAA Tournament.

************************************

Friday’s Den: Clearing out a cluttered mind…….​

— Patriots 27, Jets 14
Jets drove 72 plays on 14 plays on first drive, led 7-0.
Jets’ next four drives: 15 plays, 25 yards, four punts.
Jets averaged only 3.6 yards/pass attempt.
QB Fields is 16-37 as an NFL starter.

Patriots won their last eight games (7-1 ATS).
New England outgained the Jets, 336-245.
New England won 18 of last 20 series games.
Jets are 1-10 SU/2-8-1 ATS in last 11 visits to Foxboro.

— Old Dominion 33, Troy 0
QB Joseph threw for 147 yards and a TD, ran for 90 yards, 2 TD’s
7-3 Old Dominion ran ball 47 times for 351 yards (7.5 yards/carry).
Monarchs outgained Troy, 503-138.

— Purdue 87, Alabama 80
Alabama led by 4 with 11:34 left in the game.
Crimson Tide shot 16-44 on the arc, 12-22 inside the arc.
Senior G Smith scored 29 points for Purdue.

— West Virginia 71, Pittsburgh 49
Solid win for the Big X against an ACC team.
4-0 Mountaineers led 34-25 at halftime.
Pitt shot just 5-20 on the arc, was only 4-6 on foul line.

— Wednesday night at Oregon State, Beavers were tied 64-64 vs North Texas with 0:05 left; UNT had the ball- they called timeout, but they didn’t have a timeout, so Oregon State made the foul shots and won a game they trailed 59-46 with 7:11 left, 64-57 with 2:10 left.
Oregon State is 3-0, with wins by 2-3-2 points.

— Kansas State 99, California 96
Cal lost despite shooting 15-28 on the arc.
K-State shot 70.7% inside the arc, scored 1.27 points/possession.
Thru three games, 3-0 K-State is shooting 37-68 (54.4%) on the arc.

— Tennessee-Martin is off to a 3-0 start, with wins at UNLV, Bradley.
Skyhawks were a 16-point underdog at UNLV
Skyhawks were a 15-point underdog at Bradley
All five of Tennessee-Martin’s starters are from eastern Europe; their poster has guys from 11 different countries. The NIL era has made college ball more appealing to foreign players.

— Louisville beat Kentucky 96-88 the other night; Cardinals are 3-0 this season and in 1+ years under Pat Kelsey, Louisville is 30-8, after going 25-71 the three years before Kelsey was hired.
Louisville is playing #26 pace so far this year, shooting 68.8% inside the arc (#6). ACC teams are a combined 49-6 so far this season; it is still early, but ACC looks like a much-improved league.

— Famous birthdays, November 14th:
Jack Sikma, 70
Patrick Warburton, 61
Curt Schilling, 59
Josh Duhamel, 53
Aaron Taylor, 53
Xavier Nady, 47
Matt LaFleur, 46
Kyle Orton, 43
Francisco Lindor, 32
DeVonta Smith, 27

— Cal Raleigh hit 60 home runs this year as a switch-hitting catcher, playing home games in a ballpark that is a lousy hitter’s park, but he didn’t win MVP, Aaron Judge did.
Judge is a great player, no doubt, but Raleigh led Seattle to its first division title in over 20 years; if he did what he did in New York, he might’ve been a unanimous MVP.

— Dodgers have won the last two World Series; they have $87M coming off their payroll this winter, which will allow them to re-stock the shelves with some more good players, and they generally get whoever they want in free agency.

— There were 54 relief pitchers this season with 5+ saves.

— Free agent Kyle Schwarber is going to break the bank this winter; he hit 23 home runs against lefty pitchers this season, the most homers EVER by a lefty hitter against lefty pitchers.

— The family of the late San Diego Padres owner Peter Seidler is looking into selling the team; Padres have made the playoffs three times in the last four years and won 90+ games in back-to-back seasons- they drew 3M+ fans the last three years.

— Stephen Curry and sneaker company Under Armour are parting ways and ending their long-standing partnership; Curry left Nike and signed with Under Armour in 2013. Curry’s new brand, Curry Brand, will move forward independently- he’ll be a sneaker free agent.

 

[mickj]

Dunkel has Browns winning???

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday’s 6-pack:
NBA leaders in minutes/game:
36.6- Luka Doncic, LAL
36.1- Alperen Şengün, Hous
36.0- Austin Reaves, LAL
35.5- Amen Thompson, Hous
35.3- Kevin Durant, Hous
35.2- Zach LaVine, Sac

Quote of the Day
“I’m evaluating everything, to be honest with you. Obviously, we have to do a better job in the passing game and that has a lot to do with Justin (Fields) getting the ball to the right guys.”
Jets coach Aaron Glenn

Saturday’s quiz
Who was the Jets’ coach, the last time they made the playoffs?

Friday’s quiz
Brock Purdy is the all-time leader in passing yardage for Iowa State.

Thursday’s quiz
Shaquille O’Neal finished his year 19-year NBA career with the Celtics.

********************************************

Saturday’s Den: Wrapping up a busy Friday night…….​

— Arizona 69, UCLA 65
UCLA led by 8 with 7:18 left in the game.
Bruins shot only 39% inside the arc.
Arizona is 4-0, with wins over Florida/UCLA.
It is ridiculous that these teams aren’t in the same league anymore.

— Gonzaga 77, Arizona State 65
Graham Ike scored 20 points, had nine rebounds.
Gonzaga out-rebounded the Sun Devils, 45-31
ASU coach Bobby Hurley continues to be a jerk where refs are concerned; he never stops bitching at the officials. Gonzaga was 27-35 on the foul line, because Arizona State commits a lot of fouls. Ike was 12-15 on the foul line, ASU’s whole team was 13-23.

— Central Florida 86, Texas A&M 74
Aggies led by 13 points with 9:25 left to play.
UCF outscored A&M 40-15 in the last 10:00 of the game.
Knights are shooting 52.4% behind the arc, #2 in the country.

— Michigan 67, TCU 63
TCU led by six with 11:30 left in the game.
Michigan out-rebounded the Horned Frogs, 44-23
Wolverines are 3-0; they won last two games, by total of five points.

— Colorado 97, Providence 88
Colorado outscored Providence 58-50 in the second half.
Buffs’ subs outscored Providence’s bench, 45-20.
Colorado out-rebounded the Friars, 43-32.

— Washington 81, Washington State 69
Huskies shot 60% inside the arc.
Wazzu’s subs scored 37 points, their starters 32.
Why aren’t these teams in the same league? College sports have gone crazy.

— Georgia 92, Georgia Tech 87
Dawgs were 32-44 on foul line, Tech 17-28.
Yellow Jackets led by 8 with 14:01 left in the game.
6-1 soph Wilkinson scored 18 points in 24:00 off the bench.

— Famous birthdays, November 15th:
Sam Waterston, 85
Bob Dandridge, 78
Beverly D’Angelo, 74
Greg Anthony, 58
Ethan Westbrooks, 35
Trevor Story, 33
Karl-Anthony Towns, 30
Wyatt Langford, 24

— Clemson 20, Louisville 19
Clemson drove 56 yards, scored game-winning TD with 7:16 left
Louisville missed a PAT and a 46-yard field goal.
Cardinals outgained Clemson 385-308, but had 84 penalty yards.

— Oregon 42, Minnesota 13
Oregon QB Moore was 27-30/306 passing, with two TD’s.
Ducks outgained Minnesota 510-200.
Only nine of Oregon’s 63 plays were on third down (6-9).

— Warriors 109, Spurs 108
Seth Curry scored 49 points, was 9-17 on the arc.

— Knicks 140, Heat 132
Karl-Anthony Towns scored 39 points, Landry Shamet 36

— Rockets 140, Trail Blazers 116
Houston has won eight of its last nine games.

— Lakers 118, Pelicans 104
Lakers are 9-4 and Lebron James hasn’t played yet.

— Clippers 133, Mavericks 127, 2OT
James Harden scored 41 points, had 14 rebounds, 11 assists.

 

[Udog]

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday…….

— Texas A&M 31, South Carolina 30
South Carolina led this game 30-3 at halftime.
A&M QB Reed threw for 439 yards, three TD’s.
Aggies are 10-0 for the first time since 1992.
Since 2004, SEC teams had lost 286 consecutive games when trailing by 27+ points.

— Oklahoma 23, Alabama 21
Sooners’ first TD came on an 87-yard pick-6.
Crimson Tide outgained Oklahoma, 406-212, but they had 3 turnovers.
Alabama also missed a 36-yard field goal, allowed a 46-yard punt return.
Alabama had its 17-game home winning streak snapped.

— Michigan 24, Northwestern 22
Michigan drove 50 yards, kicked 31-yard field goal at the gun.
Wolverines led 21-9 after three quarters, but blew that lead.
Michigan was 9-14 on third down, Northwestern 2-12.
This game was played at Wrigley Field in Chicago.

— USC 26, Iowa 21
Iowa led 21-7 with 2:00 left in first half, on a rainy day in LA.
WR Lemon caught ten passes for 153 yards and a TD.
Trojans are 7-2, 7-0 when they allow less than 34 points.
Iowa’s four losses this year are by a total of 15 points.

— Georgia Tech 36, Boston College 34
Tech drove 68 yards, kicked a 23-yard FG with 0:11 left for the win.
Boston College led 28-17 after three quarters.
Tech QB King threw for 371 yards and a TD.
Boston College ran for 257 yards, but lost their 10 game in a row.

— Arizona State 25, West Virginia 23
Sun Devils kicked a 49-yard FG with 2:44 left for the winning score.
ASU led this game 22-10 at halftime.
QB Sims threw for 207 yards, three TD’s, ran for 81 more yards.
West Virginia threw for 353 yards (11.4 yards/attempt)

— LSU 23, Arkansas 22
Tigers drove 92 yards, scored game-winning TD with 7:53 left.
Arkansas led 14-0 after the first quarter.
LSU was 8-17 on third down, Arkansas 2-11.
Razorbacks have lost eight games in a row, six of them by 6 or fewer points.

— Football Upsets of the Week:
Navy (+10.5) 41, South Florida 38
Nevada (+9.5) 55, San Jose State 10
Arizona (+6.5) 30, Cincinnati 24
Oklahoma (+6.5) 23, Alabama 21
Kent State (+6.5) 42, Akron 35, OT
Virginia (+5.5) 34, Duke 17

— Famous birthdays, November 16th:
Don Hahn, 77
Herb Washington, 73
Marg Helgenberger, 67
Dwight Gooden, 61

Maggie Gyllenhaal, 48
Amare Stoudemire, 43
Pete Davidson, 32
Jason Sanders, 30

— UConn 86, BYU 84
Huskies had three players score 21 points each.
UConn led 43-32 at halftime.
Both teams shot over 60% inside the arc.

— Nebraska 105, Oklahoma 99
Oklahoma led by 16 with 6:00 left in first half.
Nebraska made 15-27 shots on the arc.
Cornhuskers scored 1.46 points/possession, ridiculously high.

— SMU 87, Butler 85
Butler led 38-29 with 3:56 left in the first half.
SMU shot 63% inside the arc
Butler was only 14-23 on the foul line.

— Georgetown 79, Clemson 74
Hoyas are 4-0, with wins over Tigers, Maryland.
6-4 junior Lewis scored 26 points (11-14 on foul line)
Clemson led by 7 with 9:07 left in first half.

— Maryland 89, Marquette 82
Maryland shot 63.6% inside the arc
Marquette shot 11-40 on the arc, 17-36 inside the arc.
Game was tied 42-42 at halftime.

— East Tennessee State 78, North Alabama 74
North Alabama led by 9 with 4:37 left in the game.
ETSU shot 57.1% inside the arc.
Buccaneers are 3-1, but against schedule #276.

— Santa Clara 98, Nevada 83
Santa Clara shot 72.2% inside the arc.
Broncos made 12-25 on the arc, scored 1.40 points/possession.
Santa Clara is 4-0; they led 48-34 at halftime.

 

[Udog]

NFL
Weather Report

Sunday, November 16

 

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 11

Sunday’s games
Commanders vs Dolphins (-2.5) (@ Madrid, Spain)
Commanders (3-7)
Commanders lost last five games, last four by 22-21-24-22 points.
Washington gave up 25-44-28-38-44 points in those five games.
Washington gave up 25+ points in its losses, 24 or less in wins.
QB Mariota is 36-44 as an NFL starter; Josh Johnson is the backup.
Quinn is 63-57 as an NFL coach.


Commanders allowed 354+ yards in eight of last nine games.
Commanders are 3-7 ATS last ten games as an underdog.
Opponents’ over/under total: over 7-2 last nine games.
Under Quinn, Commanders are 5-6 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Washington is 11-7 ATS in last 18 games vs AFC teams.


Dolphins (3-7)
Miami won two of last three games, after a 1-6 start.
Miami allowed 27+ points in all six of its losses.
Dolphins are 0-5 when they score less than 27 points.
QB Tagovailoa is 41-32 as an NFL starter.
McDaniel is 31-32 as a head coach.


Miami is 4-5-2 ATS last 11 games as a favorite.
Miami is 3-7 ATS in last 10 games coming off a win.
Dolphins are 0-5 when they run for less than 100 yards.
Dolphins went over their team total six of last eight games.
Miami is 7-5 ATS in last 12 games vs NFC teams.


Miami won three of last four series games.
Favorites are 3-1 ATS in last four series games.
Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.


Bengals @ Steelers (-5.5)
Bengals (3-5)
Bengals lost six of their last seven games.
Only win in that span was 33-31 vs Pittsburgh at home.
Over is 7-2 in Cincinnati games this season.
Flacco is 117-98 as an NFL starter.
Taylor is 54-60-1 as a head coach.


Cincinnati is 9-6-1 ATS last 16 games as road underdogs.
Bengals are 3-1 ATS last four post-bye games.
Bengals converted 22-48 3rd down plays with Flacco at QB.
Last two games, Bengals allowed 254-283 rushing yards.
Cincinnati is 2-5 ATS in last seven AFC North road games.


Steelers (5-4)
Pittsburgh lost three of its last four games.
Steelers are 4-0 when they allow less than 25 points.
Pittsburgh is +12 in turnovers in its wins, minus-6 in losses.
QB Rodgers is 169-101-1 as an NFL QB
Tomlin is 196-122-2 as an NFL head coach.


Steelers are 8-6 ATS last 14 games as a home favorite.
Pittsburgh is 11-6 ATS last 17 games coming off a loss.
Steelers allowed 32-31-35-25 points in their four losses.
Steelers went over their team total five of last six games.
Pittsburgh is 7-0 ATS in last seven AFC North home games.


Teams split their last 12 series games.
Bengals won three of their last four visits to Pittsburgh.
Over is 7-4 in last eleven meetings.


Chargers (-2.5) @ Jaguars
Chargers (7-3)
Chargers won their last three games, giving up 13.3 ppg.
Last five games, Chargers scored 29-24-37-27-25 points.
Bolts are 4-1 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
QB Herbert is 47-43 as an NFL starter.
Jim Harbaugh is 66-32-1 as an NFL head coach.


Chargers are 12-7-2 ATS last 21 games as a road favorite (1-3 TY).
Under Harbaugh, Chargers are 10-5 ATS in games coming off a win.
Bolts are 6-1 when they allow 21 or fewer points.
Chargers are 8-6 ATS last 14 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Last three games, Chargers allowed 164/206/221 yards.


Jaguars (5-4)
Jacksonville lost three of last four games, after a 4-1 start.
Jaguars blew a 29-10 4th quarter lead in LW’s loss at Houston.
Jacksonville is 4-2 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
QB Lawrence is 28-43 as an NFL starter.
Liam Coen is 5-4 as an NFL head coach.


Jaguars were +9 in turnovers first four games, minus-1 last five
Jaguars are 5-2 ATS last seven games as a home underdog.
Jaguars are 8-6 ATS in last 14 games coming off a loss.
Jaguars were outgained 412-213 in last week’s loss.
Jaguars are 5-0 when they run for 100 yards, 0-4 when they don’t.


Jaguars won last two series games, 38-10/31-30
Chargers lost four of last six visits to Jacksonville.
Over is 4-0 in last four meetings.


Buccaneers @ Bills (-5.5)
Buccaneers (6-3)
Bucs are 4-0 giving up less than 24 points, 2-3 giving up 24+.
Last two games, Bucs ran ball for only 80.7 yards/game.
Last five games, Tampa Bay is +8 in turnovers.
Mayfield is 58-59 as an NFL starter, 26-20 with the Bucs.
Bowles is 60-71 as a head coach, 34-30 with Tampa Bay.


Tampa Bay is 13-3 ATS last 16 games as a road underdog.
Bucs are 4-2 in games decided by 6 or fewer points.
Bucs held six of nine opponents under 100 rushing yards.
Bucs are 12-3-1 ATS in last 16 games coming off a loss.
Tampa Bay is 10-6-1 in last 17 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Bucs are 8-5 ATS last 13 games vs AFC teams.


Bills (6-3)
Buffalo scored 28+ points in wins, 20-14-13 in losses.
Buffalo is +7 in turnovers in wins, minus-5 in losses.
Bills have four wins by 10+ points.
QB Allen is 89-43 as an NFL starter.
McDermott is 98-55 as an NFL head coach.


Bills are 9-11 ATS last 20 games as a home favorite (0-3 TY).
Underdogs are 5-0 ATS in their home games TY.
Bills are 11-7 ATS in last 18 games coming off a loss.
Buffalo is 6-0 when they score more than 20 points.
Buffalo gave up a punt return for TD in LW’s loss at Miami.


Home team won last six series games.
Tampa Bay lost last three visits to Buffalo, by 6-3-13 points.
Over is 4-3 in last seven meetings.


Bears @ Vikings (-3.5)
Bears (6-3)
Bears won six of their last seven games.
Bears are 5-0 scoring 25+ points, 1-3 otherwise.
In wins, Chicago was +17 in turnovers; minus-3 in losses.
Ben Johnson is 6-3 as an NFL head coach.
QB Williams is 11-15 as an NFL starter.


Chicago is 14-22-2 ATS last 38 games as a road underdog.
Chicago is 8-15-1 ATS in last 24 games coming off a win.
Bears are 5-0 when they allow less than 27 points.
Last two games, Bears gave up 495-431 total yards.
Chicago is 5-0 when it allows less than 27 points.


Vikings (4-5)
Vikings lost three of their last four games.
Vikings are 3-1 in games decided by 6 or fewer points.
Last six games, Minnesota is minus-9 in turnovers.
McCarthy is 2-2 as an NFL starter.
O’Connell is 38-23 as an NFL head coach.


Vikings are 5-3 ATS last eight games as a home favorite.
Under O’Connell, Vikings are 3-6 ATS in NFC North home games.
Vikings are 8-9-1 ATS in last 18 games coming off a loss.
Six of last seven Minnesota games went over the total.
Vikings lost three of their four home games SU.


Vikings (-1.5) won 27-24 at Chicago in Week 1.
Minnesota won eight of last nine series games.
Bears are 1-3 SU/2-2 ATS in last four visits to Minnesota.
Under is 5-3 in last eight meetings.


Texans (-6.5) @ Titans
Texans (4-5)
Houston is 4-2 in last six games, after an 0-3 start.
Texans scored 26+ points in wins, 9-19-10-19-15 in losses.
Houston outscored Jaguars 26-0 in 4th quarter of LW’s 36-29 win.
Backup QB Mills is 6-19-1 as an NFL starter.
Ryans is 26-21 in as an NFL head coach.


Since 2016, Texans are 4-10-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Texans are 10-9-1 ATS last 20 games coming off a win.
Texans gained 353+ yards in wins, 271 or fewer yards in losses.
Houston is 3-0 in games decided by 11+ points, 1-5 in games decided by 8 or less.
Texans held six of last seven opponents under 300 total yards.


Titans (1-8)
Tennessee is 1-8 SU/3-6ATS, with six losses by 10+ points.
Titans are 1-3 ATS as a home underdog this year.
Interim coach McCoy was 28-38 coaching Chargers from 2013-16.
Rookie QB Ward is 1-8 as an NFL starter.
In their only win, Titans trailed 21-6 with 11:00 left.


Titans were held under 300 TY in seven of nine games.
Titans are 2-8 in last 10 AFC South home games.
Tennessee is 6-1 ATS last seven post-bye games.
Titans are 5-15 ATS in last 20 games as an underdog.
Over is 6-2 in their last eight games.


Texans (-6.5) blanked Tennessee 26-0 in Week 4.
Houston outgained the Titans, 353-175
Houston won six of last eight series games.
Texans won/covered their last four visits to Nashville.
Six of last eight series games stayed under the total.


Panthers @ Falcons (-3.5)
Panthers (5-5)
Carolina won four of its last six games.
Last four weeks, Panthers scored 13-9-16-7 points.
Last three games, Carolina was held to 244/265/175 total yards.
QB Young is 11-26 as an NFL starter.
Canales is 10-17 as a head coach.


Panthers are 7-14-1 ATS last 22 games as a road underdog.
Under Canales, Carolina is 10-6 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Carolina is 1-4 when it allows more than 24 points.
Last four games, Panthers converted 19-55 third down plays.
Carolina is 4-7-1 ATS in last 12 NFC South road games.


Falcons (3-6)
Atlanta lost in OT in Germany LW, didn’t take its bye this week.
Atlanta lost last four games, by 10-24-1-6 points.
Atlanta is +5 in turnovers in its three wins.
QB Penix is 4-7 as an NFL starter.
Morris is 32-53 as a head coach.


Atlanta is 7-16-1 ATS last 24 games as a home favorite.
Falcons are 9-12-1 ATS last 22 games coming off a loss.
Atlanta is 7-12 ATS in last 19 NFC South home games.
Last four games, Falcons were held under 300 total yards.
Under is 6-3 in Atlanta games.


Carolina blanked the Falcons 30-0 at home in Week 3.
Atlanta outgained the Panthers 332-224 in that game.
Teams split last six series games.
Panthers won three of their last five visits to Atlanta.
Under is 8-4 in last 12 meetings.


Packers (-6.5) @ Giants
Packers (5-3-1)
Packers lost last two games, scoring 13-7 points.
Green Bay is 5-0-1 when it scores 27+ points, 0-3 otherwise.
Packers held seven of nine opponents under 300 TY.
QB Love is 24-20-1 as an NFL starter
LaFleur is 75-41-1 as an NFL head coach.


Packers are 5-14-1 ATS last 20 games as a road favorite.
Packers are 5-9-1 ATS last 15 games coming off a loss.
Green Bay held last three opponents to 295/265/294 yards.
Opponents’ team total: over 4-2 last six games.
NFC North favorites are 9-7 ATS in non-divisional games.


Giants (2-8)
Giants lost last four games, fired their coach Monday.
Giants allowed 18-17 points in wins, 21+ points in losses.
Giants are 20-17 ATS last 37 games coming off a loss.
Jameis Winston is 36-51 as an NFL starter.
OC Kafka is the interim coach, will call plays.


Giants are 5-8 ATS last 13 games as a home underdog
Giants are 20-17 ATS in last 37 games coming off a loss.
Giants went over team total in five of Dart’s seven starts.
Four of Giants’ last five games went over the total.
Giants are +4 in turnovers in wins, minus-9 in losses.


Giants won four of last six series games.
Green Bay lost three of last four visits to the Garden State
Over is 3-0 in last three meetings.


Seahawks @ Rams (-3.5)
Seahawks (7-2)
Seahawks won/covered seven of last eight games.
Seattle’s two losses were by 3-4 points.
Seahawks scored two defensive TD’s in first half last week.
Darnold is 42-41 as an NFL starter.
MacDonald is 17-9 as a head coach.


Last two games, Seattle scored 38-44 points.
In its losses, Seahawks gave up 384-426 total yards.
Seattle is 11-3 ATS in last 14 games as a road underdog.
Seattle is 8-4-1 ATS in last 13 games coming off a win.
Opponents’ team total: under 6-2-1


Rams (7-2)
Rams won last four games, allowing 3-7-10-26 points.
Rams are 6-0 when they allow less than 26 points.
Last four games, Rams are +6 in turnovers.
QB Stafford is 46-27 as the Rams’ starter (120-120-1 overall).
McVay is 95-59 as an NFL head coach.


Last five games, Rams outscored opponents 81-26 in first half.
In their losses, Rams allowed 33-26 points.
Rams are 16-7 ATS in last 23 games as a favorite.
Rams went over team total in six of last eight games.
Rams are 16-8-1 ATS in last 25 games coming off a win.


Teams split the last six series games.
Seahawks won two of last three visits to SoFi
Seattle WR Kupp was Super Bowl MVP for the Rams in 2021.
Under is 8-2 in last ten meetings.


49ers (-2.5) @ Cardinals
49ers (6-4)
49ers allowed 26-30-26-42 points in losses, 24 or less in wins.
SF ran ball for less than 85 yards in seven of last nine games.
In their four losses, 49ers were minus-8 in turnovers.
QB Jones is 25-33 as an NFL starter; Purdy is 28-16.
Shanahan is 84-70 as an NFL head coach


Last three games, 49ers allowed 26-24-42 points.
49ers are 10-6-1 ATS last 17 games as a road favorite.
49ers are 16-12 ATS last 28 games coming off a loss
49ers are 8-2-1 ATS in last 11 NFC West road games.
49ers are 4-1 in games decided by 5 or less points.


Cardinals (3-6)
Cardinals lost six of their last seven games.
Arizona has five losses by four or fewer points.
Cardinals lost last three home games by 3-1-4 points.
Brissett is 20-37 as an NFL starter.
Gannon is 15-28 in 2+ years as a head coach.


Seven of nine Arizona games were decided by 7 or fewer points,
Cardinals are 8-4 ATS last 12 games as a home underdog.
Under Gannon, Arizona is 20-11 ATS as an underdog.
Arizona is 23-15 ATS in last 38 games coming off a loss.
Cardinals are 6-13 ATS in last 19 NFC West home games.


49ers (-2.5) nipped Arizona 16-15 in Week 3.
49ers outgained the Cardinals 355-260 in that game.
San Francisco won five of last seven series games.
49ers split their last six visits to Arizona.
Over is 5-2 in last seven meetings.


Ravens (-7.5) @ Browns
Ravens (4-5)
Baltimore won its last three games, scoring 30-28-27 points.
Last four games, Ravens allowed 17-16-6-19 points.
Last three games, Ravens were +7 in turnovers.
QB Jackson is 76-32 as an NFL starter
John Harbaugh is 189-120 as an NFL head coach.


Ravens are 15-8 ATS last 23 games as a road favorite.
Ravens are 16-11 ATS last 27 games coming off a win.
Baltimore is 0-4 when they allow more than 19 points.
Ravens are 5-7 ATS last 12 AFC North road games.
Last two weeks, opponents converted 5-26 third down plays.


Browns (2-7)
Browns are 0-7 when they allow more than 10 points.
Home teams are 8-0 ATS in Cleveland games this year.
Last week, Browns gave up TD’s on a punt return/kick return.
Rookie QB Gabriel is 1-4 as an NFL starter.
Stefanski is 43-55 as a head coach.


Browns won two of their three home games.
Cleveland is 8-5-1 ATS last 14 games as a home underdog.
Browns are 6-13 ATS in last 19 games coming off a loss.
Cleveland gained less than 280 yards in six of last seven games.
Last four games, Browns are +6 in turnovers.


Ravens (-12) pounded Cleveland 41-17 in Week 2 (was 10-3 at half)
Baltimore won seven of last 11 series games.
Ravens lost three of last four visits to Cleveland.
Over is 4-1 in last five meetings.


Chiefs (-3.5) @ Broncos
Chiefs (5-4)
Chiefs won/covered five of their last seven games.
Chiefs are 5-1 giving up 20 or less points, 0-3 giving up 21+.
Chiefs are 0-4 in games decided by 7 or less points.
QB Mahomes is 111-30 as an NFL starter.
Andy Reid is 306-167-1 as an NFL head coach


Last six games, Kansas City is +5 in turnovers.
Chiefs are 8-8 ATS last 16 games as a road favorite.
Chiefs are 9-4 ATS last 13 games coming off a loss.
Chiefs are 3-6 ATS in last nine AFC West road games.
Under is 4-0 in last four Kansas City games.


Broncos (8-2)
Broncos won their last seven games (4-3 ATS)
Five of their last six wins were by 4 or fewer points.
Eight of their ten games were decided by 8 or fewer points.
QB Nix is 18-10 as an NFL starter.
Payton is 187-116 as an NFL head coach, 26-19 with Denver.


Denver is 5-0 SU/2-3 ATS at home this season.
Denver is 6-3 ATS in last nine games as a home underdog.
Denver is 9-6-1 ATS in last 16 AFC West home games.
Denver is 9-7 ATS in last 16 games coming off a win.
Under is 6-2 in their last eight games.


Kansas City won 16 of last 18 series games.
That said, Chiefs lost 38-0/24-9 in last two visits to Denver.
Under is 4-0 in last four meetings.


Lions @ Eagles (–2.5)
Lions (6-3)
Detroit is 6-0 when it runs for 100+ yards, 0-3 when it doesn’t.
Lions are 1-3 when they score less than 34 points.
Detroit was held to 13-17-24 points in its losses.
QB Goff is 91-60-1 as an NFL starter, 49-33-1 with Detroit.
Campbell is 53-40-1 as an NFL head coach.
.
Lions are 14-9 ATS last 23 games as a road underdog.
Lions held last three opponents to 251/258/288 total yards.
Detroit is 25-12 ATS last 37 games coming off a win
Favorites covered four of their five road games this year.
Last eight games, Lions are +7 in turnovers.


Eagles (7-2)
Eagles are 6-0 when they score 20+ points.
Eagles held last two opponents to 246/261 total yards.
Eagles were held to 17 points in both their losses.
QB Hurts is 58-25 as an NFL starter.
Sirianni is 60-25 as an NFL coach.


Under Sirianni, Eagles are 19-15-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Philly is 13-6 ATS in last 19 games coming off a win.
Last two weeks, opponents ran ball for only 87 yards/game.
Last six weeks, opponents’ team total: over 6-1
Eagles are 14-2-1 ATS last 17 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.


Teams split last eight series games.
This is the Lions’ first visit to Philadelphia since 2019.
Over is 7-0 in last seven series games.

 

[ozzy44]

Top NFL Things To Know​

NFC West Showdown​

Best of the Best
The Seahawks are 7-2 SU and ATS.
The Rams are 7-2 SU and ATS.

The best two teams ATS in the NFL this season, but both teams enter their 10th game with a win pct of 77%+ both SU and ATS. In the Wild Card era since 1990, we’ve yet to have a matchup of teams both with a win pct SU and ATS of 77%+ face off in their 10th game or later.

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Second Fire​

Giants Can Daboll
Giants fired Brian Daboll on Monday, and New York now faces the Packers this week. Let’s start with the impact on the team in recent history. Last decade, Daboll was the 24th coach to be fired or resign in-season and 2nd this season, with Titans and Brian Callahan; those prior 23 teams went 10-13 SU and 11-12 ATS in their next game. At home, they are just 4-6 SU and 5-5 ATS after the firing.

An upset from the Giants against the Packers at anything above +7, would be the biggest upset in the 1st game after a mid-season firing since the 2011 Chiefs at +11 after they fired Todd Haley and went to Romeo Crennel and beat Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.

Here is the real impact of the in-season coaching change. Last decade, before the firing those 24 teams had won 27.5% of games SU (63-166-3 SU) and 37.9% of games ATS (86-141-5 ATS). After the firing, they went 33.1% SU (49-101 SU) and 48.7% ATS (72-76-2 ATS), a decent improvement overall.

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We Meet Again​

12 Years Later
A unique spot. The Broncos are 8-2 SU and are 3.5-point home underdogs vs. Chiefs this week. Both starting QBs are healthy. Both plan to play the whole game. No funny business.

Since the start of 2013, we've only seen one other game this late into the season where both starting QBs were in and an 8-2 or better team were home underdogs of above 3 pts:

The 9-2 Chiefs behind Alex Smith were +5 at home on December 1st of 2013 against Peyton Manning and the Broncos. Denver ended up winning the game 35-28 on the road.

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Six Horse Race​

Big Field
Entering Week 11, the MVP race is unlike any other. There are currently six different players listed at 10-1 or shorter to win the award as of now, the biggest list at this point of the season in the last decade.

Updated MVP Odds:
Matthew Stafford: +275
Drake Maye: +300
Patrick Mahomes: +500
Jonathan Taylor: +500
Josh Allen: +700
Sam Darnold: +1000

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Backup Points​

Over And Out
Through ten weeks, we've had 35 total backup QBs start in the NFL this season and one matchup of backup vs. backup QBs.

In the 34 total games with a backup QB, the over is 26-8 (77%), including 6-1 since the start of Week 9.

Here are the backup QB possibilities this week:
Commanders (Marcus Mariota)
Giants (Russ/Jameis)
Bengals (Joe Flacco)
Texans (Davis Mills)
49ers (Mac Jones)/Cardinals (Jacoby Brissett)

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Back Again​

Patriots Big Favorite vs. Jets
Once again, New England is a double-digit favorite. The first time since the end of the 2021 season and the first time vs. the Jets since Tom Brady in 2019.

Since 2000, this will be the 14th time the Patriots will be a double-digit favorite vs. Jets, most of any matchup (2nd is BAL vs. CLE, KC vs. LVR and NE vs. MIA, all tied with 11).

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Bad Chalk​

Packers Here Again
Green Bay is about a 7-pt favorite in the Giants this week.

Packers are 0-5 ATS this season when favored by 4 pts or more through ten weeks of play. Dating back to 1990, only four teams have started 0-5 ATS or worse as a favorite of 4+ pts through the first ten weeks … and three of the four teams have been the Packers franchise.

0-5 ATS or Worse as 4+ Pt Favorite — Through Ten Weeks Since 1990
1997 Packers: 0-7-1 ATS
1999 Packers: 0-6 ATS
2025 Packers: 0-5 ATS
2021 Ravens: 0-5 ATS

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Win Total Times​

In The Air This Week
Overs
Cashed: Colts (7.5)
Cash with win: Patriots (8.5)

*In Wild Card era (since 1990), Patriots have never had their win total decided before Week 12.

Unders
Cash with loss: Commanders (9.5), Ravens (11.5)

*Washington has had a win total of 8 or more nine times since 2000, with a loss in Madrid, they would be 0-9 to the over those seasons, missing the playoffs in all nine.

 

[ozzy44]

These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* NFL teams that lose while allowing fewer than 12 points have also fared well in their follow-up game, going 19-9 SU and 22-6 ATS (78.6%) since 2015.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GREEN BAY (-7 at NYG), LAS VEGAS (+3.5 vs DAL)

Pre-bye week system #2: Play Under the total on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming the opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 39-16-2 since ‘13, 70.9%, +21.4 Units, 38.9% ROI, Grade 70)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-DEN (o/u at 43.5)

* NEW ENGLAND is 32-6 SU and 29-9 ATS when riding a three-game or more outright winning streak since 2016
Trends Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (-12.5 vs NYJ)


NFL Streaks Betting System #10: NFL teams that have lost their last four games ATS are 26-26 SU but 32-18-2 ATS (64%) in their last 52 games versus non-conference foes.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+2.5 vs MIA)

* Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 42-12 SU and 39-14-1 ATS (73.6%).
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-3 vs CHI)

* Dating back to 2006, veteran starting quarterbacks in their first seasons with new teams have gone 37-35 SU and 47-25 ATS (65.3%) when playing as road underdogs of +5.5-points or fewer.
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+5.5 at PIT)

* Carolina is 3-12 ATS in their last 15 rematches after beatthe ing opponent in the initial outing
Trend Match (FADE): CAROLINA (+3.5 at ATL)

* The league’s highest scoring teams have not fared well on Sunday Night Football of late, as those scoring 30+ PPG are 14-11 SU but 6-19 ATS (24%) in their last 25 tries against teams not scoring that much.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (+2.5 at PHI)

#1 TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen Effective Strength Ratings: BAL-CLE OVER 38.5 (projections have total at 44.3)
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Home favorites of less than a TD on SNF have historically been solid, going 60-40-2 ATS (60%) in their last 102.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-2.5 vs DET)


Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 16-24-1 SU and 17-23-1 ATS (42.5%) in their last 41, but those coming off a win are on a current 29-10 SU and 23-16 ATS (59%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-2.5 vs DET)

Strangely, the league’s highest scoring teams have not fared well on SNF of late, as those scoring 30+ PPG are 14-11 SU but 6-19 ATS (24%) in their last 25 tries against teams not scoring that much.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (+2.5 at PHI)

Good SNF Team Trend
Philadelphia 6-2 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-2.5 vs DET)

Bad SNF Team Trend
Detroit 5-6 SU and 4-7 ATS in the last 11
Trend Match (FADE): DETROIT (+2.5 at PHI)

Under the total SNF Team Trend
Detroit 9-1-1 Under in the last 11
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-PHI (o/u at 46.5)

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

NFL home underdogs on Monday Night are on a run of 16-19 SU and 19-15-1 ATS (55.9%) dating back to September 2021. The last 33 of these games have seen Under the total go 23-8-2 (74.2%) as well, games producing just 39.7 PPG.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): LAS VEGAS (+3.5 vs DAL)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DAL-LVR (o/u at 50.5)

In MNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 30-30 SU but 19-39-2 ATS (32.8%) in the last 60.
System Match (FADE): LAS VEGAS (+3.5 vs DAL)

In concert with the theme of big underdogs faring well on MNF, teams scoring 17.5 PPG or less at the time have gone 11-16 SU and 16-11 ATS (59.3%) in their last 27 tries against teams scoring higher than that.
System Match (PLAY): LAS VEGAS (+3.5 vs DAL)

Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 46-42 SU but just 33-53-2 ATS (38.4%) in the last 88 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (-3.5 at LVR)

Good MNF Team Trends
Dallas 7-5 SU and ATS in the last 12
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-3.5 at LVR)

 

[Udog]

Dunkel has Browns winning???

That's what it says. I'd be very interested to know what makes em think so.

 

[ozzy44]

Featured Matchup Trends​

Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams​

(Seahawks @ Rams | Rams -3.5 | Total 48.5)

• Rams vs Seattle Head-to-Head System Trend:
  Los Angeles is 12-3 ATS when playing Seattle (home or away). SU they’re 10-5, suggesting matchup dominance.
• Totals note: 6-9 O/U historically suggests caution on the Over.

Market read: Rams trend strongly ATS vs Seattle; historical matchup advantage strongly favors LA.

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San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals​

(49ers -2.5 @ Cardinals | Total 48.5)

• SF Road Favorite Totals Trend (47.5–51): 13-2-1 ATS, 15-3-2 SU
• SF Road Favorite in November: 17-8 ATS, 21-4 SU
• SF Road Favorite off ATS loss: 11-4 ATS, 12-2-1 SU

Market read: This is a monster cluster trend backing San Francisco. Bounce-back cycle + matchup spot equals strong support for the 49ers.

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Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Commanders​

(Commanders @ Dolphins -2.5 | Total 48)

• Miami Home Favorite in November: 21-12-2 ATS, 29-6 SU
• Random System Trend: Miami 9-2-1 ATS at home during Weeks 8–12 before a non-conference game.

Market read: Dolphins historically elite in November at home, especially outside AFC competition.

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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers​

(Bengals @ Steelers -5.5 | Total 49)

• Pittsburgh Home Favorite in November: 9-5-1 ATS, 12-2-1 SU, 12-3 O/U
• PIT vs 31–40% opponent in November: 8-2-1 ATS, 10-1 SU
• Smart Trend: When Pittsburgh is home favorite with 2-3 record last 5: 28-17-1 ATS, 38-8 SU

Market read: Steelers are a November home monster, and situational metrics heavily favor them.

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Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs​

(Chiefs -3.5 @ Broncos | Total 45)

• KC vs AFC West Fav: Only 7-13 ATS, but 17-3 SU
• DEN Home after division game off 0-3-pt win: 12-0 SU, 9-3 O/U
• DEN Home vs division opp off 0-3-pt win: 10-2 SU

Market read: Classic SU/ATS split matchup. Chiefs win historically, but Denver hangs inside the number more often than not.

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Other Significant System Edges​

Game	Trend	Result
Carolina @ Atlanta (111/112 — ATL -3.5)	CAR Road Dog Wk 8-12 off home loss: 11-2 O/U	Total angle, Over strong
Green Bay @ NY Giants (115/116 — GB -7)	GB -7 to -9.5 favorite after ATS win: 12-2 SU	Strength ranking advantage
Tampa Bay @ Buffalo (117/118 — BUF -5.5)	BUF Home fav after division game last 5 yrs: 20-4 SU, 19-5 O/U	Points & Over both supported
Dallas @ Las Vegas (129/130 — DAL -3.5)	DAL -3.5-6.5 fav off Under: 10-2 O/U	Over trend spike

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Final Thoughts – Betting Strategy​

This slate provides several high-confidence trend clusters, not just isolated angles:

Strongest Trend Consolidation Spots​

• San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (multiple elite historical edges)
• Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5
• Buffalo / Tampa Bay Over
• Dallas / Las Vegas Over
• Carolina / Atlanta Over

Caution Games​

• Chiefs -3.5 at Denver (SU strength vs ATS weakness split)
• Seahawks / Rams total (historically lower scoring)