2025 WESTGATE LAS VEGAS SUPERCONTEST
| SUPERCONTEST LEADERS STANDINGS & SELECTIONS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SUPERCONTEST WEEK 11: 11/11/25 – 11/17/25 | |||||
| SUPERCONTEST WEEK 11 LINES/ODDS | BY # OF TEAMS | ||||
| PATRIOTS | -12.5 | vs. | NY Jets | SF 243 | TEN 107 |
| Dolphins | -2.5 | vs. | Commanders | KC 214 | TB 105 |
| Packers | -7 | vs. | NY GIANTS | MIN 212 | BAL 102 |
| BILLS | -5.5 | vs. | Buccaneers | DAL 192 | CAR 100 |
| STEELERS | -5.5 | vs. | Bengals | LAC 187 | HOU 100 |
| Texans | -6.5 | vs. | TITANS | MIA 174 | GB 97 |
| VIKINGS | -3 | vs. | Bears | LAR 163 | PIT 90 |
| FALCONS | -3.5 | vs. | Panthers | DET 154 | JAX 88 |
| Chargers | -2.5 | vs. | JAGUARS | SEA 152 | WAS 77 |
| RAMS | -3 | vs. | Seahawks | CIN 150 | NYG 76 |
| 49ers | -3 | vs. | CARDINALS | BUF 144 | ARI 74 |
| Ravens | -7.5 | vs. | BROWNS | PHI 133 | LV 58 |
| Chiefs | -3.5 | vs. | BRONCOS | DEN 124 | NYJ 28 |
| EAGLES | -2.5 | vs. | Lions | ATL 121 | NE 28 |
| Cowboys | -3 | vs. | RAIDERS | CLE 115 | IND 0 |
| CHI 112 | NO 0 | ||||
| CAPS → HOME | TOP 5 LW: | YTD: | |||
| TEAM | W | L | T | LW | PTS |
| BIFFS ALAMANAC | 38 | 12 | 0 | 38 | |
| WK 11 PKS | WAS | BUF | PIT | JAX | DEN |
| 2DYE4 | 34 | 15 | 1 | 34.50 | |
| WK 11 PKS | WAS | GB | BUF | CHI | CLE |
| SBMA20163 | 34 | 15 | 1 | 34.50 | |
| WK 11 PKS | CIN | MIN | SEA | ARI | LV |
| SEANSDOLPHINS1 | 34 | 16 | 0 | 34.00 | |
| WK 11 PKS | PIT | TEN | MIN | SEA | CLE |
| 91ACES | 34 | 16 | 0 | 34.00 | |
| WK 11 PKS | BUF | MIN | ATL | CLE | DAL |
| SBMA20168 | 33 | 16 | 1 | 33.50 | |
| WK 11 PKS | CIN | MIN | SEA | ARI | LV |
| SBMA20161 | 33 | 16 | 1 | 33.50 | |
| WK 11 PKS | CIN | MIN | SEA | ARI | LV |
| CHARLEY VARRICK | 33 | 16 | 1 | 33.50 | |
| WK 11 PKS | WAS | BUF | LAR | ARI | KC |
| PERSIAN PRINCESS | 33 | 17 | 0 | 33.00 | |
| WK 11 PKS | GB | LAR | SF | KC | DET |
| SBMA20166 | 32 | 17 | 1 | 32.50 | |
| WK 11 PKS | CIN | MIN | SEA | ARI | LV |
| SBMA20169 | 32 | 17 | 1 | 32.50 | |
| WK 11 PKS | CIN | MIN | SEA | ARI | LV |
Sunday, November 16
| Game | Time(ET) | Pick | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU at TEN | 01:00 PM | HOU -6.0***** U 37.5***** | +500 +500 |
| CAR at ATL | 01:00 PM | CAR +4.0***** U 42.0 | +500 +500 |
| CHI at MIN | 01:00 PM | MIN -3.0 U 48.0***** | +500 +500 |
| LAC at JAC | 01:00 PM | JAC +3.0***** U 43.0***** | +500 +500 |
| TB at BUF | 01:00 PM | TB +6.5***** U 46.0 | +500 +500 |
| GB at NYG | 01:00 PM | NYG +7.0 U 41.5***** | +500 +500 |
| CIN at PIT | 01:00 PM | PIT -5.5***** U 48.0***** | +500 +500 |
| SEA at LA | 04:05 PM | LA -3.0 O 48.5***** | +500 +500 |
| SF at ARI | 04:05 PM | SF -3.5 U 48.5***** | +500 +500 |
| BAL at CLE | 04:25 PM | CLE +7.5***** U 38.0***** | +500 +500 |
| KC at DEN | 04:25 PM | DEN +4.5***** O 45.0 | +500 +500 |
| DET at PHI | 08:20 PM | PHI -2.5 U 46.5***** | +500 +500 |
CNOTES NFL BEST BETS !
11/16/2025...............10 - 6 - 0............62.50%.............+ 17.00
11/10/2025.................1 - 1 - 0............50.00%.............- 0.50
11/09/2025.................3 - 9 - 0............25.00%.............-34.50
11/06/2025.................1 - 1 - 0............50.00%.............- 0.50
11/02/2025.................4 - 8 - 0............33.33%.............- 24.00
TOTALS.....................19 -25 - 0............43.18%.............- 42.50
11/16/2025...............10 - 6 - 0............62.50%.............+ 17.00
11/10/2025.................1 - 1 - 0............50.00%.............- 0.50
11/09/2025.................3 - 9 - 0............25.00%.............-34.50
11/06/2025.................1 - 1 - 0............50.00%.............- 0.50
11/02/2025.................4 - 8 - 0............33.33%.............- 24.00
TOTALS.....................19 -25 - 0............43.18%.............- 42.50
Monday’s 6-pack:
College basketball teams playing the fastest pace:
— IU-Indy, Horizon
— Cal Poly, Big West
— William & Mary, CAA
— Alabama, SEC
— Oklahoma State, Big X
— UMass, MAC
Quote of the Day
“We’re never going to apologize for being able to find ways to win.”
Sean McVay
Monday’s quiz
Who is the all-time leader in receiving yards for the Dallas Cowboys?
Sunday’s quiz
When John Calipari left Memphis for Kentucky in 2009, who replaced him as head coach?
(Hint: He is currently coaching a different D-I team)
Saturday’s quiz
Rex Ryan was the Jets’ coach, the last time they made the playoffs.
****************************************************
Chicago kicked a 48-yard FG at the gun for the win.
Bears won seven of their last eight games.
In wins, Chicago is +19 in turnovers; minus-3 in losses.
Bears are 6-0 when they allow less than 27 points.
Vikings scored TD with 0:50 left to take lead; Bears ran kickoff back 56 yards.
Both QBs completed 16 of 32 passes, in a domed stadium. Oy.
Vikings lost four of their last five games.
Last seven games, Minnesota is minus-11 in turnovers.
Dolphins 16, Commanders 13 OT
Miami won three of last four games, after a 1-6 start.
Dolphins drove 52-56 yards on first two drives, kicked two FG’s
Miami’s only TD came with 12:36 left, after a 53-yard drive.
Dolphins kicked a 29-yard FG after an INT for the walk-off win.
Commanders lost last six games, giving up 32.5 points/game.
Washington outgained Miami 379-311, but were minus-2 in turnovers.
Commanders are 0-4 in games decided by 9 or fewer points.
Commanders are 3-8 ATS in last eleven games as an underdog.
Panthers 30, Falcons 27 OT
Panthers QB Young threw for 448 yards, three TD’s.
Atlanta tied game on 45-yard FG with 0:16 left.
Carolina won five of its last seven games.
Panthers are 4-1 when they score more than 13 points.
Atlanta has lost five games in a row, giving up 27.8 ppg.
Falcons’ first four drives: 26 plays, 228 yards, 21 points.
Atlanta rest of game: 43 plays, 108 yards, 6 points.
Falcons led 21-10 at halftime.
Bills 44, Buccaneers 32
Bills’ drives in first half: INT-TD-TD-INT-TD
Buffalo led 21-20 at halftime.
QB Allen threw for 317 yards, 3 TD’s, ran for 40 yards, 3 more TD’s
Buffalo scored 28+ points in wins, 20-14-13 in losses.
Buffalo threw for 317 yards (10.6 yards/attempt)
Tampa Bay ran ball for 202 yards (5.2 yards/attempt)
RB Tucker ran ball for 106 yards, two TD’s.
Bucs are 4-0 giving up less than 24 points, 2-4 giving up 24+.
Texans 16, Titans 13
Texans drove 48 yards, kicked 35-yard FG for a walk-off win.
Tennessee had tied game on a TD with 1:35 left.
Houston is 5-2 in last seven games, after an 0-3 start.
Since 2016, Texans are 4-11-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Houston in first half: 37 plays, 127 yards, no points. (trailed 3-0 @ half)
Houston in second half: 36 plays, 199 yards, 16 points.
Titans ran ball 17 times for only 58 yards.
Houston won seven of last nine games vs Tennessee.
Rams 21, Seahawks 19
Rams won last five games, allowing 3-7-10-26-19 points.
Rams are 7-0 when they allow less than 26 points.
RB Williams ran for 91 yards and a TD.
Rams’ win snaps Seattle’s 10-game road winning streak.
Seattle’s three losses were by 3-4-2 points.
Seahawks outgained Rams 414-249, but Darnold threw 4 INT’s.
Seattle’s first five drives: INT-FG-FG-FG-INT
Seahawks missed a 61-yard FG on last play of the game.
Packers 27, Giants 20
Game was tied 13-13 at halftime.
Packers drove 65 yards, scored game-winning TD with 4:02 left.
Packers converted 7-11 third down plays.
Green Bay is 6-0-1 when it scores 27+ points, 0-3 otherwise.
Giants lost last five games, giving up 31.2 ppg.
QB Winston 19-29/201 passing, in his first start for the Giants.
Giants went over their team total in six of last eight games.
Giants are +4 in turnovers in wins, minus-11 in losses.
Steelers 34, Bengals 12
Steelers lost QB Rodgers (broken bone in left wrist in 2nd quarter)
Steelers scored two defensive TD’s in the second half.
Steelers are 5-0 when they allow less than 25 points.
Pittsburgh is +14 in turnovers in its wins, minus-6 in losses.
Pittsburgh led 10-6 at halftime.
Bengals in 2nd half: 38 plays, 205 yards, outscored 24-6.
Bengals lost seven of their last eight games.
Cincinnati is 2-6 ATS in last eight AFC North road games.
Jaguars 35, Chargers 6
Jaguars outgained the Chargers, 345-135.
Jacksonville led 14-6 at halftime.
Jaguars’ first 3 drives in 2nd half: 29 plays, 154 yards, 21 points,
Jaguars are 6-2 ATS last eight games as a home underdog.
Chargers’ first four drives: 24 plays, 52 yards, six points.
Chargers rest of game: 17 plays, 83 yards, no points.
Jaguars didn’t punt once the whole game.
Chargers are 1-3 when they allow more than 21 points.
49ers 41, Cardinals 22
49ers ran opening kickoff back 98 yards, scored on next play.
49ers in first half: 26 plays, 197 yards, 25 points.
San Francisco led 25-10 at halftime.
McCaffrey ran for 81 yards, two TD’s, caught five passes, scored another TD
Arizona committed 17 penalties for 130 yards.
Cardinals lost seven of their last eight games.
Cardinals are 6-14 ATS in last 20 NFC West home games.
Brissett was 47-57/452 passing; 47 completions is an NFL record.
Ravens 23, Browns 16
Cleveland led this game 16-10 after three quarters.
Ravens drove 44 yards, scored game-winning TD with 2:31 left.
Baltimore won its last four games, scoring 30-28-27-23 points.
Last five games, Ravens allowed 17-16-6-19-16 points.
Ravens outgained Cleveland 351-187
Browns QB Gabriel (concussion) sat out the second half.
Backup QB Sanders was 4-16/47 passing, with an INT.
Home teams are 9-0 ATS in Cleveland games this year.
Broncos 22, Chiefs 19
Denver drove 58 yards, kicked 35-yard FG for a walk-off win.
Broncos won their last eight games (5-3 ATS)
Six of their last seven wins were by 4 or fewer points.
Denver is 10-6-1 ATS in last 17 AFC West home games.
Kansas City is 5-5 for the first time since 2015.
Chiefs are 0-5 TY in one-score games (were 12-0 LY)
Chiefs in first half: 37 plays, 157 yards, 6 points (was 6-6 at half)
Chiefs in 2nd half: 26 plays, 203 yards, 13 points
Eagles 16, Lions 9
Eagles led 13-6 at the half; not much happened after halftime.
Philly is 14-6 ATS in last 20 games coming off a win.
Last three weeks, opponents ran ball for only 82.7 yards/game.
Eagles lead the NFC East by 3.5 games, a big lead.
Goff completed only 14-37 passes, playing with a glove on right hand.
Detroit converted 3-13 third down plays, 0-5 on fourth down.
Lions are 5-0 when they score 34+ points, 1-4 when they don’t.
Detroit missed PAT after their only TD; WR Williams got 15-yard penalty for gloating, and the kicker missed the 48-yard PAT on a windy night.
College basketball teams playing the fastest pace:
— IU-Indy, Horizon
— Cal Poly, Big West
— William & Mary, CAA
— Alabama, SEC
— Oklahoma State, Big X
— UMass, MAC
Quote of the Day
“We’re never going to apologize for being able to find ways to win.”
Sean McVay
Monday’s quiz
Who is the all-time leader in receiving yards for the Dallas Cowboys?
Sunday’s quiz
When John Calipari left Memphis for Kentucky in 2009, who replaced him as head coach?
(Hint: He is currently coaching a different D-I team)
Saturday’s quiz
Rex Ryan was the Jets’ coach, the last time they made the playoffs.
****************************************************
Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday…….
Bears 19, Vikings 17Chicago kicked a 48-yard FG at the gun for the win.
Bears won seven of their last eight games.
In wins, Chicago is +19 in turnovers; minus-3 in losses.
Bears are 6-0 when they allow less than 27 points.
Vikings scored TD with 0:50 left to take lead; Bears ran kickoff back 56 yards.
Both QBs completed 16 of 32 passes, in a domed stadium. Oy.
Vikings lost four of their last five games.
Last seven games, Minnesota is minus-11 in turnovers.
Dolphins 16, Commanders 13 OT
Miami won three of last four games, after a 1-6 start.
Dolphins drove 52-56 yards on first two drives, kicked two FG’s
Miami’s only TD came with 12:36 left, after a 53-yard drive.
Dolphins kicked a 29-yard FG after an INT for the walk-off win.
Commanders lost last six games, giving up 32.5 points/game.
Washington outgained Miami 379-311, but were minus-2 in turnovers.
Commanders are 0-4 in games decided by 9 or fewer points.
Commanders are 3-8 ATS in last eleven games as an underdog.
Panthers 30, Falcons 27 OT
Panthers QB Young threw for 448 yards, three TD’s.
Atlanta tied game on 45-yard FG with 0:16 left.
Carolina won five of its last seven games.
Panthers are 4-1 when they score more than 13 points.
Atlanta has lost five games in a row, giving up 27.8 ppg.
Falcons’ first four drives: 26 plays, 228 yards, 21 points.
Atlanta rest of game: 43 plays, 108 yards, 6 points.
Falcons led 21-10 at halftime.
Bills 44, Buccaneers 32
Bills’ drives in first half: INT-TD-TD-INT-TD
Buffalo led 21-20 at halftime.
QB Allen threw for 317 yards, 3 TD’s, ran for 40 yards, 3 more TD’s
Buffalo scored 28+ points in wins, 20-14-13 in losses.
Buffalo threw for 317 yards (10.6 yards/attempt)
Tampa Bay ran ball for 202 yards (5.2 yards/attempt)
RB Tucker ran ball for 106 yards, two TD’s.
Bucs are 4-0 giving up less than 24 points, 2-4 giving up 24+.
Texans 16, Titans 13
Texans drove 48 yards, kicked 35-yard FG for a walk-off win.
Tennessee had tied game on a TD with 1:35 left.
Houston is 5-2 in last seven games, after an 0-3 start.
Since 2016, Texans are 4-11-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Houston in first half: 37 plays, 127 yards, no points. (trailed 3-0 @ half)
Houston in second half: 36 plays, 199 yards, 16 points.
Titans ran ball 17 times for only 58 yards.
Houston won seven of last nine games vs Tennessee.
Rams 21, Seahawks 19
Rams won last five games, allowing 3-7-10-26-19 points.
Rams are 7-0 when they allow less than 26 points.
RB Williams ran for 91 yards and a TD.
Rams’ win snaps Seattle’s 10-game road winning streak.
Seattle’s three losses were by 3-4-2 points.
Seahawks outgained Rams 414-249, but Darnold threw 4 INT’s.
Seattle’s first five drives: INT-FG-FG-FG-INT
Seahawks missed a 61-yard FG on last play of the game.
Packers 27, Giants 20
Game was tied 13-13 at halftime.
Packers drove 65 yards, scored game-winning TD with 4:02 left.
Packers converted 7-11 third down plays.
Green Bay is 6-0-1 when it scores 27+ points, 0-3 otherwise.
Giants lost last five games, giving up 31.2 ppg.
QB Winston 19-29/201 passing, in his first start for the Giants.
Giants went over their team total in six of last eight games.
Giants are +4 in turnovers in wins, minus-11 in losses.
Steelers 34, Bengals 12
Steelers lost QB Rodgers (broken bone in left wrist in 2nd quarter)
Steelers scored two defensive TD’s in the second half.
Steelers are 5-0 when they allow less than 25 points.
Pittsburgh is +14 in turnovers in its wins, minus-6 in losses.
Pittsburgh led 10-6 at halftime.
Bengals in 2nd half: 38 plays, 205 yards, outscored 24-6.
Bengals lost seven of their last eight games.
Cincinnati is 2-6 ATS in last eight AFC North road games.
Jaguars 35, Chargers 6
Jaguars outgained the Chargers, 345-135.
Jacksonville led 14-6 at halftime.
Jaguars’ first 3 drives in 2nd half: 29 plays, 154 yards, 21 points,
Jaguars are 6-2 ATS last eight games as a home underdog.
Chargers’ first four drives: 24 plays, 52 yards, six points.
Chargers rest of game: 17 plays, 83 yards, no points.
Jaguars didn’t punt once the whole game.
Chargers are 1-3 when they allow more than 21 points.
49ers 41, Cardinals 22
49ers ran opening kickoff back 98 yards, scored on next play.
49ers in first half: 26 plays, 197 yards, 25 points.
San Francisco led 25-10 at halftime.
McCaffrey ran for 81 yards, two TD’s, caught five passes, scored another TD
Arizona committed 17 penalties for 130 yards.
Cardinals lost seven of their last eight games.
Cardinals are 6-14 ATS in last 20 NFC West home games.
Brissett was 47-57/452 passing; 47 completions is an NFL record.
Ravens 23, Browns 16
Cleveland led this game 16-10 after three quarters.
Ravens drove 44 yards, scored game-winning TD with 2:31 left.
Baltimore won its last four games, scoring 30-28-27-23 points.
Last five games, Ravens allowed 17-16-6-19-16 points.
Ravens outgained Cleveland 351-187
Browns QB Gabriel (concussion) sat out the second half.
Backup QB Sanders was 4-16/47 passing, with an INT.
Home teams are 9-0 ATS in Cleveland games this year.
Broncos 22, Chiefs 19
Denver drove 58 yards, kicked 35-yard FG for a walk-off win.
Broncos won their last eight games (5-3 ATS)
Six of their last seven wins were by 4 or fewer points.
Denver is 10-6-1 ATS in last 17 AFC West home games.
Kansas City is 5-5 for the first time since 2015.
Chiefs are 0-5 TY in one-score games (were 12-0 LY)
Chiefs in first half: 37 plays, 157 yards, 6 points (was 6-6 at half)
Chiefs in 2nd half: 26 plays, 203 yards, 13 points
Eagles 16, Lions 9
Eagles led 13-6 at the half; not much happened after halftime.
Philly is 14-6 ATS in last 20 games coming off a win.
Last three weeks, opponents ran ball for only 82.7 yards/game.
Eagles lead the NFC East by 3.5 games, a big lead.
Goff completed only 14-37 passes, playing with a glove on right hand.
Detroit converted 3-13 third down plays, 0-5 on fourth down.
Lions are 5-0 when they score 34+ points, 1-4 when they don’t.
Detroit missed PAT after their only TD; WR Williams got 15-yard penalty for gloating, and the kicker missed the 48-yard PAT on a windy night.
NFL
Weather Report
Monday, November 17
NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 11
Monday’s game
Cowboys (–3.5) @ Raiders
Cowboys (3-5-1)
Cowboys lost three of their last four games.
Dallas lost four of its first five road games.
Dallas is 0-5 scoring less than 37 points.
QB Prescott is 81-56-1 as an NFL starter.
Brian Schottenheimer is 3-5-1 as a head coach.
Cowboys are 11-7 ATS last 18 games as a road favorite (0-2 TY).
Cowboys are 6-3 ATS last nine post-bye games.
Dallas is 9-8 ATS in last 17 games vs AFC teams.
Over is 5-1 in their last six games.
Last three games, opponents are 19-37 on third down conversions.
Raiders (2-7)
Raiders lost three games in a row, last two by 1-3 points.
Raiders allowed 13-10 points in their wins
Last four games, Raiders ran the ball for only 54.8 yards/game.
QB Geno Smith is 42-51 as an NFL starter.
Carroll is 183-138-1 as an NFL head coach.
Raiders are 1-3 SU at home TY, with two one-point losses.
Las Vegas is 16-16-1 ATS last 33 games as a home underdog.
Raiders are 12-14-1 ATS in last 27 games coming off a loss.
Las Vegas is 9-11-2 ATS in last 22 games vs NFC teams.
Under is 4-1 in their last five games.
Dallas won three of last four series games.
This is Cowboys’ first-ever visit to Las Vegas.
Weather Report
Monday, November 17
NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 11
Monday’s game
Cowboys (–3.5) @ Raiders
Cowboys (3-5-1)
Cowboys lost three of their last four games.
Dallas lost four of its first five road games.
Dallas is 0-5 scoring less than 37 points.
QB Prescott is 81-56-1 as an NFL starter.
Brian Schottenheimer is 3-5-1 as a head coach.
Cowboys are 11-7 ATS last 18 games as a road favorite (0-2 TY).
Cowboys are 6-3 ATS last nine post-bye games.
Dallas is 9-8 ATS in last 17 games vs AFC teams.
Over is 5-1 in their last six games.
Last three games, opponents are 19-37 on third down conversions.
Raiders (2-7)
Raiders lost three games in a row, last two by 1-3 points.
Raiders allowed 13-10 points in their wins
Last four games, Raiders ran the ball for only 54.8 yards/game.
QB Geno Smith is 42-51 as an NFL starter.
Carroll is 183-138-1 as an NFL head coach.
Raiders are 1-3 SU at home TY, with two one-point losses.
Las Vegas is 16-16-1 ATS last 33 games as a home underdog.
Raiders are 12-14-1 ATS in last 27 games coming off a loss.
Las Vegas is 9-11-2 ATS in last 22 games vs NFC teams.
Under is 4-1 in their last five games.
Dallas won three of last four series games.
This is Cowboys’ first-ever visit to Las Vegas.
CNOTES NFL BEST BETS !
11/17/2025.................1 -, 0 - 1.........100.00%...........+ 5.00
11/16/2025...............10 - 6 - 0............62.50%.............+ 17.00
11/10/2025.................1 - 1 - 0............50.00%.............- 0.50
11/09/2025.................3 - 9 - 0............25.00%.............-34.50
11/06/2025.................1 - 1 - 0............50.00%.............- 0.50
11/02/2025.................4 - 8 - 0............33.33%.............- 24.00
TOTALS.....................20 -25 - 1............44.44%.............- 37.50
11/17/2025.................1 -, 0 - 1.........100.00%...........+ 5.00
11/16/2025...............10 - 6 - 0............62.50%.............+ 17.00
11/10/2025.................1 - 1 - 0............50.00%.............- 0.50
11/09/2025.................3 - 9 - 0............25.00%.............-34.50
11/06/2025.................1 - 1 - 0............50.00%.............- 0.50
11/02/2025.................4 - 8 - 0............33.33%.............- 24.00
TOTALS.....................20 -25 - 1............44.44%.............- 37.50
Tuesday’s 6-pack:
College basketball teams playing the slowest pace:
— Charlotte, AAC
— Idaho State, Big Sky
— West Virginia, Big X
— Western Illinois, OVC
— Iowa, Big 18
— UCLA, Big 18
Quote of the Day
“Always end the day with a positive thought. No matter how hard things were, tomorrow is a fresh opportunity to make it better.”
Roy Bennett
Tuesday’s quiz
Where did Raiders’ QB Geno Smith play his college football?
Monday’s quiz
Jason Witten is the all-time leader in receiving yards for the Dallas Cowboys.
Sunday’s quiz
When John Calipari left Memphis for Kentucky in 2009, Josh Pastner replaced him as head coach.
*********************************************
Chase is appealing the suspension, which would cost Chase his weekly paycheck of $448,333 along with a $58,823 per game active bonus.
— Atlanta Falcons QB Michael Penix hurt his knee Sunday, is expected to miss the rest of the season. Penix is 4-8 as an NFL starter; he has thrown for 1,982 yards this season, with nine TD’s, three INT’s.
— Eagles’ RT Lane Johnson hurt his foot/ankle Sunday night, is expected to miss 4-6 weeks for an 8-2 Eagles squad that leads the NFC East by 3.5 games.
— Jets are going back to Tyrod Taylor at QB this week, after throwing for a combined 147 yards in their last two games, with Justin Fields at QB.
— NFL divisional trends:
AFC East
17-10 ATS non-divisional games
AFC North
Home teams 5-0 ATS divisional games
8-19 ATS non-divisional games
AFC South
Home teams 4-1 ATS divisional games
9-7 ATS non-divisional underdog
AFC West
7-4 ATS non-divisional home favorite
1-7 ATS non-divisional road favorite
NFC East
5-10 ATS non-divisional underdog
Home teams 4-2 ATS divisional games
NFC North
3-6 ATS non-divisional underdog
NFC South
14-18 ATS non-divisional games
6-10 ATS non-divisional home games
NFC West
8-0 non-divisional road games
home teams 1-5 ATS divisional games
— College football trends, conference games:
American
Favorites 27-17 ATS
ACC
Road teams 19-11 ATS
Big 18
Home favorites 15-20 ATS
Home underdogs 10-12 ATS
Big X
Home favorites 18-20 ATS
Home underdogs 15-11 ATS
Conference USA
Home teams 23-13 ATS
Home favorites 11-8 ATS
Home underdogs 12-5 ATS
Mid-American
Home teams 28-12 ATS
Mountain West
Home favorites 12-11 ATS
Home underdogs 6-5 ATS
SEC
Home favorites 19-17 ATS
Home underdogs 8-8 ATS
Sun Belt
Home favorites 14-10 ATS
Home underdogs 11-9 ATS
— Famous birthdays, November 18th:
Kevin Nealon, 72
Warren Moon, 69
Elizabeth Perkins, 65
Jamie Moyer, 63
Dante Bichette, 62
Gary Sheffield, 57
Owen Wilson, 57
Romany Malco, 57
Sam Cassell, 56
David Ortiz, 50
Cory Littleton, 32
Logan Webb, 29
Shea Langliers, 28
Caleb Williams, 24
— 1B Josh Naylor re-signed with the Seattle Mariners, inking a five-year deal with $92.5M; Naylor hit .299 in 54 games with Seattle LY, with an OPS of .831, as he helped Seattle get to Game 7 of the ALCS. He also stole a career-high 30 bases last year.
He is a career. 269 hitter, with a .777 OPS.
— Virginia Tech hired James Franklin as its new football coach; Franklin was 104-45 as coach at Penn State, but was fired after starting this season 3-3. He was previously 24-15 in three years at Vanderbilt; he has a career record of 8-7 in bowl games.
— North Texas is ranked #22 in this week’s football top 25, only the second time the Mean Green has ever been ranked, the first time since 1959.
— Saskatchewan Roughriders won the Grey Cup Sunday, 25-17 over Montreal, the fifth time they’ve won the CFL title, first time since 2013.
— New Orleans Pelicans fired coach Willie Green after starting the season 2-10; Pelicans were 49-33 two years ago, but got swept in first round of the playoffs, then went 21-61 last year.
College basketball teams playing the slowest pace:
— Charlotte, AAC
— Idaho State, Big Sky
— West Virginia, Big X
— Western Illinois, OVC
— Iowa, Big 18
— UCLA, Big 18
Quote of the Day
“Always end the day with a positive thought. No matter how hard things were, tomorrow is a fresh opportunity to make it better.”
Roy Bennett
Tuesday’s quiz
Where did Raiders’ QB Geno Smith play his college football?
Monday’s quiz
Jason Witten is the all-time leader in receiving yards for the Dallas Cowboys.
Sunday’s quiz
When John Calipari left Memphis for Kentucky in 2009, Josh Pastner replaced him as head coach.
*********************************************
Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but……..
— Bengals WR Ja’Maar Chase was suspended one game without pay for spitting on Steelers’ DB Jalen Ramsey Sunday. Chase has caught 79 passes for 861 passes this year, even with Bemgals’ QB Joe Burrow missing most of the season.Chase is appealing the suspension, which would cost Chase his weekly paycheck of $448,333 along with a $58,823 per game active bonus.
— Atlanta Falcons QB Michael Penix hurt his knee Sunday, is expected to miss the rest of the season. Penix is 4-8 as an NFL starter; he has thrown for 1,982 yards this season, with nine TD’s, three INT’s.
— Eagles’ RT Lane Johnson hurt his foot/ankle Sunday night, is expected to miss 4-6 weeks for an 8-2 Eagles squad that leads the NFC East by 3.5 games.
— Jets are going back to Tyrod Taylor at QB this week, after throwing for a combined 147 yards in their last two games, with Justin Fields at QB.
— NFL divisional trends:
AFC East
17-10 ATS non-divisional games
AFC North
Home teams 5-0 ATS divisional games
8-19 ATS non-divisional games
AFC South
Home teams 4-1 ATS divisional games
9-7 ATS non-divisional underdog
AFC West
7-4 ATS non-divisional home favorite
1-7 ATS non-divisional road favorite
NFC East
5-10 ATS non-divisional underdog
Home teams 4-2 ATS divisional games
NFC North
3-6 ATS non-divisional underdog
NFC South
14-18 ATS non-divisional games
6-10 ATS non-divisional home games
NFC West
8-0 non-divisional road games
home teams 1-5 ATS divisional games
— College football trends, conference games:
American
Favorites 27-17 ATS
ACC
Road teams 19-11 ATS
Big 18
Home favorites 15-20 ATS
Home underdogs 10-12 ATS
Big X
Home favorites 18-20 ATS
Home underdogs 15-11 ATS
Conference USA
Home teams 23-13 ATS
Home favorites 11-8 ATS
Home underdogs 12-5 ATS
Mid-American
Home teams 28-12 ATS
Mountain West
Home favorites 12-11 ATS
Home underdogs 6-5 ATS
SEC
Home favorites 19-17 ATS
Home underdogs 8-8 ATS
Sun Belt
Home favorites 14-10 ATS
Home underdogs 11-9 ATS
— Famous birthdays, November 18th:
Kevin Nealon, 72
Warren Moon, 69
Elizabeth Perkins, 65
Jamie Moyer, 63
Dante Bichette, 62
Gary Sheffield, 57
Owen Wilson, 57
Romany Malco, 57
Sam Cassell, 56
David Ortiz, 50
Cory Littleton, 32
Logan Webb, 29
Shea Langliers, 28
Caleb Williams, 24
— 1B Josh Naylor re-signed with the Seattle Mariners, inking a five-year deal with $92.5M; Naylor hit .299 in 54 games with Seattle LY, with an OPS of .831, as he helped Seattle get to Game 7 of the ALCS. He also stole a career-high 30 bases last year.
He is a career. 269 hitter, with a .777 OPS.
— Virginia Tech hired James Franklin as its new football coach; Franklin was 104-45 as coach at Penn State, but was fired after starting this season 3-3. He was previously 24-15 in three years at Vanderbilt; he has a career record of 8-7 in bowl games.
— North Texas is ranked #22 in this week’s football top 25, only the second time the Mean Green has ever been ranked, the first time since 1959.
— Saskatchewan Roughriders won the Grey Cup Sunday, 25-17 over Montreal, the fifth time they’ve won the CFL title, first time since 2013.
— New Orleans Pelicans fired coach Willie Green after starting the season 2-10; Pelicans were 49-33 two years ago, but got swept in first round of the playoffs, then went 21-61 last year.
NFL
Week 12
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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 20
Buffalo VS Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games.
Buffalo is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games.
Buffalo is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games against Houston.
Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Houston's last 11 games.
Houston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 8 games against Buffalo.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games at home.
Sunday, November 23
Pittsburgh VS Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games.
Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games against Chicago.
Pittsburgh is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road.
Pittsburgh is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Chicago.
Chicago is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games.
Chicago is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games at home.
Chicago is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh.
Minnesota VS Green Bay
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 8 games.
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games.
Minnesota is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games against Green Bay.
Green Bay is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 7 games.
Green Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Green Bay's last 10 games against Minnesota.
Indianapolis VS Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis' last 5 games.
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games.
Indianapolis is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games against Kansas City.
Indianapolis is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games against Kansas City.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games.
Kansas City is 13-7 SU in its last 20 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 7 games against Indianapolis.
Kansas City is 17-1 SU in its last 18 games at home.
Seattle VS Tennessee
Seattle is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Seattle's last 9 games.
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
Seattle is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games against Tennessee.
Tennessee is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 9 games.
Tennessee is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tennessee's last 10 games against Seattle.
New York VS Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 12 of NY Jets' last 17 games.
NY Jets is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games.
NY Jets is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games against Baltimore.
NY Jets is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games against Baltimore.
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Baltimore's last 11 games.
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games at home.
Baltimore is 7-0 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against NY Jets.
New England VS Cincinnati
New England is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games.
New England is 8-0 SU in its last 8 games.
New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games against Cincinnati.
Cincinnati is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games.
Cincinnati is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 6 games at home.
New York VS Detroit
NY Giants is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants' last 6 games.
NY Giants is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games.
NY Giants is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games against Detroit.
Detroit is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games.
Detroit is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games.
Detroit is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games at home.
Detroit is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against NY Giants.
Jacksonville VS Arizona
Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games against Arizona.
Jacksonville is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games against Arizona.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 5 games on the road.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games.
Arizona is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games against Jacksonville.
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Arizona's last 8 games at home.
Atlanta VS New Orleans
Atlanta is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games.
Atlanta is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games against New Orleans.
Atlanta is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games against New Orleans.
Atlanta is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road.
New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New Orleans' last 6 games.
New Orleans is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New Orleans' last 8 games at home.
Tampa Bay VS Los Angeles
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games.
Tampa Bay is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games.
Tampa Bay is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 games against LA Rams.
Tampa Bay is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games against LA Rams.
LA Rams is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams' last 5 games.
LA Rams is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Rams' last 7 games against Tampa Bay.
Monday, November 24
Carolina VS San Francisco
Carolina is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games.
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Carolina's last 18 games.
Carolina is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games.
Carolina is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games against San Francisco.
San Francisco is 7-13 ATS in its last 20 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 8 games.
The total has gone OVER in 15 of San Francisco's last 20 games against Carolina.
San Francisco is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home.
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Week 12
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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 20
Buffalo VS Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games.
Buffalo is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games.
Buffalo is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games against Houston.
Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Houston's last 11 games.
Houston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 8 games against Buffalo.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games at home.
Sunday, November 23
Pittsburgh VS Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games.
Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games against Chicago.
Pittsburgh is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road.
Pittsburgh is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Chicago.
Chicago is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games.
Chicago is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games at home.
Chicago is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh.
Minnesota VS Green Bay
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 8 games.
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games.
Minnesota is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games against Green Bay.
Green Bay is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 7 games.
Green Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Green Bay's last 10 games against Minnesota.
Indianapolis VS Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis' last 5 games.
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games.
Indianapolis is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games against Kansas City.
Indianapolis is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games against Kansas City.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games.
Kansas City is 13-7 SU in its last 20 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 7 games against Indianapolis.
Kansas City is 17-1 SU in its last 18 games at home.
Seattle VS Tennessee
Seattle is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Seattle's last 9 games.
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
Seattle is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games against Tennessee.
Tennessee is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 9 games.
Tennessee is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tennessee's last 10 games against Seattle.
New York VS Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 12 of NY Jets' last 17 games.
NY Jets is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games.
NY Jets is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games against Baltimore.
NY Jets is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games against Baltimore.
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Baltimore's last 11 games.
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games at home.
Baltimore is 7-0 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against NY Jets.
New England VS Cincinnati
New England is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games.
New England is 8-0 SU in its last 8 games.
New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games against Cincinnati.
Cincinnati is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games.
Cincinnati is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 6 games at home.
New York VS Detroit
NY Giants is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants' last 6 games.
NY Giants is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games.
NY Giants is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games against Detroit.
Detroit is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games.
Detroit is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games.
Detroit is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games at home.
Detroit is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against NY Giants.
Jacksonville VS Arizona
Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games against Arizona.
Jacksonville is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games against Arizona.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 5 games on the road.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games.
Arizona is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games against Jacksonville.
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Arizona's last 8 games at home.
Atlanta VS New Orleans
Atlanta is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games.
Atlanta is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games against New Orleans.
Atlanta is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games against New Orleans.
Atlanta is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road.
New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New Orleans' last 6 games.
New Orleans is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New Orleans' last 8 games at home.
Tampa Bay VS Los Angeles
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games.
Tampa Bay is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games.
Tampa Bay is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 games against LA Rams.
Tampa Bay is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games against LA Rams.
LA Rams is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams' last 5 games.
LA Rams is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Rams' last 7 games against Tampa Bay.
Monday, November 24
Carolina VS San Francisco
Carolina is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games.
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Carolina's last 18 games.
Carolina is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games.
Carolina is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games against San Francisco.
San Francisco is 7-13 ATS in its last 20 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 8 games.
The total has gone OVER in 15 of San Francisco's last 20 games against Carolina.
San Francisco is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home.
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Wednesday’s 6-pack:
NFL spreads for Week 12:
— Bills (-6) @ Houston
— Colts @ Kansas City (-3.5)
— Steelers @ Chicago (-3)
— Patriots (-8) @ Cincinnati
— Jets @ Baltimore (-13.5)
— Seahawks (-13.5) @ Tennessee
Quote of the Day
“[The Warriors’ medical staff] believes that the wear and tear, the speed, the pace, the mileage is factoring into these injuries. Across the league, everyone understands that it’s easier to score if you beat the opponent down the floor, get out in transition. But when everybody’s doing that, the games are much higher-paced.”
Steve Kerr, talking about faster-paced games leading to more injuries
Wednesday’s quiz
When was the last time Kentucky’s basketball team made the Final Four?
Tuesday’s quiz
Raiders’ QB Geno Smith played his college football at West Virginia.
Monday’s quiz
Jason Witten is the all-time leader in receiving yards for the Dallas Cowboys.
***********************************************
I thought about it for a minute, then said how I think that no team can be great without great players. Players make the train roll down the tracks, coaches keep the train on the track. It is the truly great teams that have both, but given my choice, I’d rather have great players.
— Bill Belichick is a polarizing figure, but no doubt he is a Hall of Fame coach, with six Super Bowl rings as a head coach (333-178 record), two more as an assistant coach with the Giants.
Upon further review, this is his record:
1991-95 Cleveland 37-45
2000-23 New England 296-133
In New England when Tom Brady started at QB, he was 249-75
In New England, when someone else started, he was 47-58.
Overall, his NFL record without Brady: 84-103 (also 4-6 in college this year)
— Other QB’s records when starting under Belichick:
Testaverde 16-15………Kosar 14-22………….Zeier 1-3
Cassel 10-5………………Mac Jones 18-24…..Hoyer 0-2
Garoppolo 2-0…………Bledsoe 5-13…………Brissett 1-1
Rypien 2-1………………Newton 7-8…………..Philcox 2-3
Tomczak 4-4…………..Zappe 4-4
— I posted those numbers on Twitter over the weekend; that post had 10 times more activity than anything else I ever posted there, so I decided to research a few more coaches.
— QB’s who started under Bill Walsh:
Joe Montana 88-40
Steve Young 4-2
DeBerg 6-18
Cavanaugh 2-0
Kemp 3-2-1
Gagliano 1-0
— QB’s who started under Chuck Noll:
Terry Bradshaw 121-56………Kruczek 6-0…….Bono 2-1
Bubby Brister 26-27………….Gilliam 4-2-1……Blackledge 2-3
Mark Malone 21-24…………..Woodley 7-6…….SCampbell 0-2
Hanratty 6-11…………………..O’Donnell 2-6…..Shiner 1-8
Stoudt 9-7
— QB’s who started under Joe Gibbs
Joe Theismann 53-23……..Brunell 16-19……..TCollins 3-0
Mark Rypien 47-22………..JCampbell 8-12…..Rutledge 0-1
Jay Schroder 24-7………….Ramsey 4-4………..Rubbert 3-0
Doug Williams 5-9…………Humphries 3-2
— QB’s who started under Don Coryell:
Dan Fouts 72-53…….Luther 2-7………..Harris 0-2
Jim Hart 41-28………Herrmann 1-4…..Keithley 1-1
Famous birthdays, November 19th:
Bob Boone, 78
Ahmad Rashad, 76
Allison Janney, 66
Meg Ryan, 64
Ryan Howard, 46
Adam Driver, 42
Framber Valdez, 32
Joey Gallo, 32
Poona Ford, 30
Zach Collins, 28
— Apparently Florida Gators have offered Ole Miss football coach Lane Kiffin a six-year deal worth $81M; had to be awkward over the weekend, when the Rebels beat Florida, 34-24.
— Best wishes to former NFL quarterback Bernie Kosar, who underwent a liver transplant a few years ago. He says he feels good after the surgery, which is excellent news.
— Dallas Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson is the grandson of longtime Wisconsin coach/AD Barry Alvarez; Ferguson has caught 60 passes for 400 yards so far this season.
— Michigan State 83, Kentucky 66
Spartans shot 11-22 on the arc, Kentucky 7-30.
Michigan State out-rebounded Kentucky, 42-28
Kentucky is 3-2, but 0-2 vs teams ranked in the top 250.
— Duke 78, Kansas 66
Duke shot 62.5% inside arc; they only played one senior.
Kansas PG Peterson (hamstring) didn’t play.
Teams combined to shoot 11-47 on the arc.
Kentucky
— Florida State 87, Tenn-Martin 73
Skyhawks turned ball over 26 times, FSU only six times.
Tenn-Martin has turned ball over 27.3% of time in its D-I games.
Tenn-Martin has also covered the spread in all three D-I games.
— Texas A&M 86, Montana 81
Aggies led by 14 at half, shot 71% inside the arc.
Montana made 16-31 on arc, covered after trailing by 19.
Montana has 59.3% inside arc in its four D-I games.
— Fresno State 80, Stephen F Austin 78
Lumberjacks led by 7 with 3:55 left to play.
Bulldogs were 11-19 on foul line, SF Austin 3-6.
Fresno State shot 64.3% inside the arc
NFL spreads for Week 12:
— Bills (-6) @ Houston
— Colts @ Kansas City (-3.5)
— Steelers @ Chicago (-3)
— Patriots (-8) @ Cincinnati
— Jets @ Baltimore (-13.5)
— Seahawks (-13.5) @ Tennessee
Quote of the Day
“[The Warriors’ medical staff] believes that the wear and tear, the speed, the pace, the mileage is factoring into these injuries. Across the league, everyone understands that it’s easier to score if you beat the opponent down the floor, get out in transition. But when everybody’s doing that, the games are much higher-paced.”
Steve Kerr, talking about faster-paced games leading to more injuries
Wednesday’s quiz
When was the last time Kentucky’s basketball team made the Final Four?
Tuesday’s quiz
Raiders’ QB Geno Smith played his college football at West Virginia.
Monday’s quiz
Jason Witten is the all-time leader in receiving yards for the Dallas Cowboys.
***********************************************
Wednesday’s Den: Looking at NFL head coach/QB combinations…….
— Someone asked me this summer; “Who are more important, coaches or players?”I thought about it for a minute, then said how I think that no team can be great without great players. Players make the train roll down the tracks, coaches keep the train on the track. It is the truly great teams that have both, but given my choice, I’d rather have great players.
— Bill Belichick is a polarizing figure, but no doubt he is a Hall of Fame coach, with six Super Bowl rings as a head coach (333-178 record), two more as an assistant coach with the Giants.
Upon further review, this is his record:
1991-95 Cleveland 37-45
2000-23 New England 296-133
In New England when Tom Brady started at QB, he was 249-75
In New England, when someone else started, he was 47-58.
Overall, his NFL record without Brady: 84-103 (also 4-6 in college this year)
— Other QB’s records when starting under Belichick:
Testaverde 16-15………Kosar 14-22………….Zeier 1-3
Cassel 10-5………………Mac Jones 18-24…..Hoyer 0-2
Garoppolo 2-0…………Bledsoe 5-13…………Brissett 1-1
Rypien 2-1………………Newton 7-8…………..Philcox 2-3
Tomczak 4-4…………..Zappe 4-4
— I posted those numbers on Twitter over the weekend; that post had 10 times more activity than anything else I ever posted there, so I decided to research a few more coaches.
— QB’s who started under Bill Walsh:
Joe Montana 88-40
Steve Young 4-2
DeBerg 6-18
Cavanaugh 2-0
Kemp 3-2-1
Gagliano 1-0
— QB’s who started under Chuck Noll:
Terry Bradshaw 121-56………Kruczek 6-0…….Bono 2-1
Bubby Brister 26-27………….Gilliam 4-2-1……Blackledge 2-3
Mark Malone 21-24…………..Woodley 7-6…….SCampbell 0-2
Hanratty 6-11…………………..O’Donnell 2-6…..Shiner 1-8
Stoudt 9-7
— QB’s who started under Joe Gibbs
Joe Theismann 53-23……..Brunell 16-19……..TCollins 3-0
Mark Rypien 47-22………..JCampbell 8-12…..Rutledge 0-1
Jay Schroder 24-7………….Ramsey 4-4………..Rubbert 3-0
Doug Williams 5-9…………Humphries 3-2
— QB’s who started under Don Coryell:
Dan Fouts 72-53…….Luther 2-7………..Harris 0-2
Jim Hart 41-28………Herrmann 1-4…..Keithley 1-1
Famous birthdays, November 19th:
Bob Boone, 78
Ahmad Rashad, 76
Allison Janney, 66
Meg Ryan, 64
Ryan Howard, 46
Adam Driver, 42
Framber Valdez, 32
Joey Gallo, 32
Poona Ford, 30
Zach Collins, 28
— Apparently Florida Gators have offered Ole Miss football coach Lane Kiffin a six-year deal worth $81M; had to be awkward over the weekend, when the Rebels beat Florida, 34-24.
— Best wishes to former NFL quarterback Bernie Kosar, who underwent a liver transplant a few years ago. He says he feels good after the surgery, which is excellent news.
— Dallas Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson is the grandson of longtime Wisconsin coach/AD Barry Alvarez; Ferguson has caught 60 passes for 400 yards so far this season.
— Michigan State 83, Kentucky 66
Spartans shot 11-22 on the arc, Kentucky 7-30.
Michigan State out-rebounded Kentucky, 42-28
Kentucky is 3-2, but 0-2 vs teams ranked in the top 250.
— Duke 78, Kansas 66
Duke shot 62.5% inside arc; they only played one senior.
Kansas PG Peterson (hamstring) didn’t play.
Teams combined to shoot 11-47 on the arc.
Kentucky
— Florida State 87, Tenn-Martin 73
Skyhawks turned ball over 26 times, FSU only six times.
Tenn-Martin has turned ball over 27.3% of time in its D-I games.
Tenn-Martin has also covered the spread in all three D-I games.
— Texas A&M 86, Montana 81
Aggies led by 14 at half, shot 71% inside the arc.
Montana made 16-31 on arc, covered after trailing by 19.
Montana has 59.3% inside arc in its four D-I games.
— Fresno State 80, Stephen F Austin 78
Lumberjacks led by 7 with 3:55 left to play.
Bulldogs were 11-19 on foul line, SF Austin 3-6.
Fresno State shot 64.3% inside the arc
Thursday’s 6-pack:
NFL spreads for Week 12:
— Giants @ Detroit (-10)
— Jaguars (-3) @ Arizona
— Browns @ Las Vegas (-4)
— Falcons @ New Orleans (-1.5)
— Eagles (-3.5) @ Dallas
— Panthers @ San Francisco (-7)
Quote of the Day
“I’m not surprised by anything. This is kind of the nature of the position. But I put my energy and my focus on trying to go out there and do my best and trying to learn, trying to build, trying to take in the things that I can to try and improve.”
Eagles QB Jalen Hurts
Thursday’s quiz
Where did Shaquille O’Neal play his college basketball?
Wednesday’s quiz
2105 was the last time Kentucky’s basketball team made the Final Four.
Tuesday’s quiz
Raiders’ QB Geno Smith played his college football at West Virginia.
*****************************************************************
Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud…….
— Arizona 71, UConn 67
Arizona out-rebounded the Huskies, 43-23.
Wildcats are rebounding 38.8% of their missed shots (#37)
UConn was 9-18 on foul line, 8-25 on the arc.
Arizona is 5-0, with three top 30 wins; none of those were in Tucson.
— Alabama 90, Illinois 86
Illinois led 19-10 early on, but that didn’t last.
Alabama was 13-36 on the arc, 17-30 inside arc; they scored 1.14 ppp.
So far this month, 52% of Alabama’s shots have been 3’s.
Alabama has already played three top 20 games (2-1); they’re playing the #5 pace in the country. Fun team to watch.
— Oklahoma State 103, South Florida 95
USF led by 13 points late in the first half.
Bulls shot 15-39 on the arc, 15-25 inside the arc.
OSU is 5-0 with two top 100 wins, playing #3 pace in country.
— Dayton 77, Marquette 71 OT
Dayton led by 12 with 8:27 left in regulation.
Flyers had 25 turnovers, Marquette 20.
Marquette is 0-3 vs top 70 teams; they need PG Jones to get healthy.
— Famous birthdays, November 20:
Veronica Hamel, 82
Louie Dampier, 81
Rick Monday, 80
Richard Masur, 77
Bo Derek, 69
Dwight Stephenson, 68
Sean Young, 66
Callie Thorne, 56
JD Drew, 50
Carlos Boozer, 44
David Fry, 30
Tarik Skubal, 29
— Miami OH 37, Buffalo 20
Freshman QB Gotkowski was 13-23/185 passing in his first college start.
Miami was +3 in turnovers; they’re bowl eligible for fifth year in a row.
Buffalo QB Roberson threw for 303 yards, two TD’s.
— Central Michigan 28, Akron 16
Chippewas led 14-3 at halftime.
CMU had an 18-play, 75-yard TD drive in the first quarter.
Kent State’s first TD came on a 59-yard punt return.
— Akron 19, Bowling Green 16
Matthew Schramm kicked four FG’s, including a career-long 48-yarder.
Game was tied 6-6 at halftime.
Akron QB Finley threw a 75-yard TD pass; he played for three schools in his six years as a college QB, also playing for NC State and California.
— Western Michigan 35, Northern Illinois 19
Huskies led 10-0 after the first quarter.
RB Buckley ran for 133 yards, two TD’s.
Western Michigan ran ball 59 times for 361 yards (6.1 yards/attempt).
— Ohio U 42, UMass 14
RB Bangura ran for 196 yards, two TD’s.
Bobcats ran for 363 yards, threw only 8 passes.
UMass finishes the season a dismal 0-11.
— Movie of the Day: Forget Paris (1995)- An NBA referee travels to France to bury his father; he meets and becomes friends with an airline employee. Their story gets told in flashbacks by their friends, as they wait for the couple to show up at a restaurant.
Great cast: Billy Crystal is the ref, Debra Winger his friend. Joe Mantegna, John Spencer, Cathy Moriarty, Richard Masur are also in this movie, as well as a lot of NBA stars.
— South Alabama 71, Jacksonville State 65
Gamecocks led 26-11 early in the game.
Jaguars were 15-24 on foul line; Jax State, playing at home, was 1-4.
South Alabama is 6-0; only one of their five D-I wins was at home. They’re #307 team in the country in experience.
— Arkansas 84, Winthrop 83
Red flag game; SEC teams should beat Winthrop by more than one point, especially since they won their previous game 79-75 over Samford.
Arkansas has games with Duke/Louisville coming up soon, which will be interesting.
— In baseball, Orioles traded P Grayson Rodriguez to the Angels, for veteran hitter Taylor Ward.
Rodriguez is 20-8, 4.11 in 43 big league starts, but he’s been hurt a lot; his last major league game was in July, 2024.
Ward hit 36 homers this year, knocked in 103 runs, but he’s a free agent after the ’26 season.
— RIP to former big league pitcher Randy Jones, who passed away at age 75.
Jones went 20-12/22-14 for the Padres in 1975-76, throwing 600 innings those two years, back when starting pitchers went deeper into games. Those Padre teams went 71-91/73-89, so he was ace for a cruddy team. He wasn’t a hard thrower, but he was very good.
RIP, sir.
NFL spreads for Week 12:
— Giants @ Detroit (-10)
— Jaguars (-3) @ Arizona
— Browns @ Las Vegas (-4)
— Falcons @ New Orleans (-1.5)
— Eagles (-3.5) @ Dallas
— Panthers @ San Francisco (-7)
Quote of the Day
“I’m not surprised by anything. This is kind of the nature of the position. But I put my energy and my focus on trying to go out there and do my best and trying to learn, trying to build, trying to take in the things that I can to try and improve.”
Eagles QB Jalen Hurts
Thursday’s quiz
Where did Shaquille O’Neal play his college basketball?
Wednesday’s quiz
2105 was the last time Kentucky’s basketball team made the Final Four.
Tuesday’s quiz
Raiders’ QB Geno Smith played his college football at West Virginia.
*****************************************************************
Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud…….
— Arizona 71, UConn 67
Arizona out-rebounded the Huskies, 43-23.
Wildcats are rebounding 38.8% of their missed shots (#37)
UConn was 9-18 on foul line, 8-25 on the arc.
Arizona is 5-0, with three top 30 wins; none of those were in Tucson.
— Alabama 90, Illinois 86
Illinois led 19-10 early on, but that didn’t last.
Alabama was 13-36 on the arc, 17-30 inside arc; they scored 1.14 ppp.
So far this month, 52% of Alabama’s shots have been 3’s.
Alabama has already played three top 20 games (2-1); they’re playing the #5 pace in the country. Fun team to watch.
— Oklahoma State 103, South Florida 95
USF led by 13 points late in the first half.
Bulls shot 15-39 on the arc, 15-25 inside the arc.
OSU is 5-0 with two top 100 wins, playing #3 pace in country.
— Dayton 77, Marquette 71 OT
Dayton led by 12 with 8:27 left in regulation.
Flyers had 25 turnovers, Marquette 20.
Marquette is 0-3 vs top 70 teams; they need PG Jones to get healthy.
— Famous birthdays, November 20:
Veronica Hamel, 82
Louie Dampier, 81
Rick Monday, 80
Richard Masur, 77
Bo Derek, 69
Dwight Stephenson, 68
Sean Young, 66
Callie Thorne, 56
JD Drew, 50
Carlos Boozer, 44
David Fry, 30
Tarik Skubal, 29
— Miami OH 37, Buffalo 20
Freshman QB Gotkowski was 13-23/185 passing in his first college start.
Miami was +3 in turnovers; they’re bowl eligible for fifth year in a row.
Buffalo QB Roberson threw for 303 yards, two TD’s.
— Central Michigan 28, Akron 16
Chippewas led 14-3 at halftime.
CMU had an 18-play, 75-yard TD drive in the first quarter.
Kent State’s first TD came on a 59-yard punt return.
— Akron 19, Bowling Green 16
Matthew Schramm kicked four FG’s, including a career-long 48-yarder.
Game was tied 6-6 at halftime.
Akron QB Finley threw a 75-yard TD pass; he played for three schools in his six years as a college QB, also playing for NC State and California.
— Western Michigan 35, Northern Illinois 19
Huskies led 10-0 after the first quarter.
RB Buckley ran for 133 yards, two TD’s.
Western Michigan ran ball 59 times for 361 yards (6.1 yards/attempt).
— Ohio U 42, UMass 14
RB Bangura ran for 196 yards, two TD’s.
Bobcats ran for 363 yards, threw only 8 passes.
UMass finishes the season a dismal 0-11.
— Movie of the Day: Forget Paris (1995)- An NBA referee travels to France to bury his father; he meets and becomes friends with an airline employee. Their story gets told in flashbacks by their friends, as they wait for the couple to show up at a restaurant.
Great cast: Billy Crystal is the ref, Debra Winger his friend. Joe Mantegna, John Spencer, Cathy Moriarty, Richard Masur are also in this movie, as well as a lot of NBA stars.
— South Alabama 71, Jacksonville State 65
Gamecocks led 26-11 early in the game.
Jaguars were 15-24 on foul line; Jax State, playing at home, was 1-4.
South Alabama is 6-0; only one of their five D-I wins was at home. They’re #307 team in the country in experience.
— Arkansas 84, Winthrop 83
Red flag game; SEC teams should beat Winthrop by more than one point, especially since they won their previous game 79-75 over Samford.
Arkansas has games with Duke/Louisville coming up soon, which will be interesting.
— In baseball, Orioles traded P Grayson Rodriguez to the Angels, for veteran hitter Taylor Ward.
Rodriguez is 20-8, 4.11 in 43 big league starts, but he’s been hurt a lot; his last major league game was in July, 2024.
Ward hit 36 homers this year, knocked in 103 runs, but he’s a free agent after the ’26 season.
— RIP to former big league pitcher Randy Jones, who passed away at age 75.
Jones went 20-12/22-14 for the Padres in 1975-76, throwing 600 innings those two years, back when starting pitchers went deeper into games. Those Padre teams went 71-91/73-89, so he was ace for a cruddy team. He wasn’t a hard thrower, but he was very good.
RIP, sir.
NFL
Weather Report
Thursday, November 17
NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 12
Thursday’s game
Bills (-6) @ Texans
Bills (7-3)
Buffalo scored 28+ points in wins, 20-14-13 in losses.
Buffalo is +6 in turnovers in wins, minus-5 in losses.
Bills have five wins by 10+ points.
QB Allen is 90-43 as an NFL starter.
McDermott is 99-55 as an NFL head coach.
Bills are 20-16 ATS last 36 games as a road favorite (2-2 TY).
Last four games, Bills converted 25 of 50 third down plays.
Bills are 33-27-2 ATS in last 62 games coming off a win.
Buffalo is 7-0 when they score more than 20 points.
Last two games, Buffalo gave up 30-32 points, won both games.
AFC East favorites are 7-4 ATS in non-divisional games.
Texans (5-5)
Houston is 5-2 in last seven games, after an 0-3 start.
Texans are 4-0 when they score 20+ points.
QB Stroud (concussion) is out for this game.
Backup QB Mills is 7-19-1 as an NFL starter.
Ryans is 27-21 in as an NFL head coach.
Texans are 4-3 ATS last seven as a home underdog.
Texans are 10-10-1 ATS last 21 games coming off a win.
Texans gained 353+ yards in wins, 271 or fewer yards in losses.
Houston is 3-0 in games decided by 11+ points, 2-5 in games decided by 8 or less.
Texans held seven of last eight opponents under 300 total yards.
AFC South underdogs are 9-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
Texans won six of last eight series games.
Bills are 0-5 SU/1-4 ATS in last five visits to Houston.
Under is 6-1 in last seven meetings.
Weather Report
Thursday, November 17
NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 12
Thursday’s game
Bills (-6) @ Texans
Bills (7-3)
Buffalo scored 28+ points in wins, 20-14-13 in losses.
Buffalo is +6 in turnovers in wins, minus-5 in losses.
Bills have five wins by 10+ points.
QB Allen is 90-43 as an NFL starter.
McDermott is 99-55 as an NFL head coach.
Bills are 20-16 ATS last 36 games as a road favorite (2-2 TY).
Last four games, Bills converted 25 of 50 third down plays.
Bills are 33-27-2 ATS in last 62 games coming off a win.
Buffalo is 7-0 when they score more than 20 points.
Last two games, Buffalo gave up 30-32 points, won both games.
AFC East favorites are 7-4 ATS in non-divisional games.
Texans (5-5)
Houston is 5-2 in last seven games, after an 0-3 start.
Texans are 4-0 when they score 20+ points.
QB Stroud (concussion) is out for this game.
Backup QB Mills is 7-19-1 as an NFL starter.
Ryans is 27-21 in as an NFL head coach.
Texans are 4-3 ATS last seven as a home underdog.
Texans are 10-10-1 ATS last 21 games coming off a win.
Texans gained 353+ yards in wins, 271 or fewer yards in losses.
Houston is 3-0 in games decided by 11+ points, 2-5 in games decided by 8 or less.
Texans held seven of last eight opponents under 300 total yards.
AFC South underdogs are 9-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
Texans won six of last eight series games.
Bills are 0-5 SU/1-4 ATS in last five visits to Houston.
Under is 6-1 in last seven meetings.
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
· There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 30-24 SU but 19-33-2 ATS (36.5%) in the last 54. Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in Weeks 9 and later are 46-28 SU and 43-28-3 ATS (60.6%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+6 vs BUF)
· Home underdogs on TNF have really struggled of late, going 8-23 SU and 12-19 ATS (38.7%) in their last 31, scoring just 16.2 PPG. In terms of totals, 19 of the last 29 (65.5%) TNF games featuring a home dog went Under.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+6 vs BUF)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BUF-HOU (o/u at 43.5)
Bad TNF Team Trend
Houston 3-8 SU and ATS in the last 11
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+6 vs BUF)
* BUFFALO is 22-7 SU and 23-6 ATS vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-6 at HOU)
(111) BUFFALO (7-3) at (112) HOUSTON (5-5)
* BUFFALO is 22-7 SU and 23-6 ATS vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2018
* BUFFALO is 42-29 ATS (59.2%) in non-divisional conference games since 2017
* BUFFALO is 32-26 ATS (55.2%) in road/neutral games since 2019
* HOUSTON is on a 17-58 SU and 26-48 ATS slide vs. elite teams with a point differential of >=+4.5 PPG since 2010
Trends Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-6 at HOU)
* BUFFALO’s Josh Allen is 37-22 Under the total on the road since 2018
* HOUSTON’s DeMeco Ryans is on 17-6 Under the total surge vs. teams with a winning record
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): BUF-HOU (o/u at 43.5)
Primetime dogs are 18-16 ATS (53%) with a 1% ROI this season and 159-142 ATS (53%) with a 1% ROI since 2020. Conference primetime dogs are 17-9 ATS (65%) with a 24% ROI this season and 121-101 ATS (55%) with a 5% ROI since 2020.
Primetime dogs getting 5.5-points or more are 9-5 ATS (64%) with a 22% ROI this season and 73-53 ATS (58%) with an 11% ROI since 2020.
Houston has correlative betting value as a dog in a low total game (43.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover the number.
Josh Allen is 25-27 ATS (48%) as a favorite of 5.5-points or more in his regular season career. If favored by 5.5-points or more in a conference game, Allen is just 16-20 ATS (44%).
The Texans have the edge defensively, allowing just 16.3 PPG (1st in the NFL) while the Bills are giving up 22.9 PPG (14th).
In terms of the total, it has remained largely static at 43.5. Some shops briefly ticked up to 44 before falling back down to 43.5.
At DraftKings, the over is taking in 57% of bets and 67% of dollars. However, at Circa the under is receiving 44% of bets and 63% of dollars.
Primetime unders are 21-16 (57%) with an 8% ROI this season and 211-152 (58%) with a 12% ROI since 2019.
· There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 30-24 SU but 19-33-2 ATS (36.5%) in the last 54. Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in Weeks 9 and later are 46-28 SU and 43-28-3 ATS (60.6%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+6 vs BUF)
· Home underdogs on TNF have really struggled of late, going 8-23 SU and 12-19 ATS (38.7%) in their last 31, scoring just 16.2 PPG. In terms of totals, 19 of the last 29 (65.5%) TNF games featuring a home dog went Under.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+6 vs BUF)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BUF-HOU (o/u at 43.5)
Bad TNF Team Trend
Houston 3-8 SU and ATS in the last 11
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+6 vs BUF)
* BUFFALO is 22-7 SU and 23-6 ATS vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-6 at HOU)
(111) BUFFALO (7-3) at (112) HOUSTON (5-5)
* BUFFALO is 22-7 SU and 23-6 ATS vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2018
* BUFFALO is 42-29 ATS (59.2%) in non-divisional conference games since 2017
* BUFFALO is 32-26 ATS (55.2%) in road/neutral games since 2019
* HOUSTON is on a 17-58 SU and 26-48 ATS slide vs. elite teams with a point differential of >=+4.5 PPG since 2010
Trends Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-6 at HOU)
* BUFFALO’s Josh Allen is 37-22 Under the total on the road since 2018
* HOUSTON’s DeMeco Ryans is on 17-6 Under the total surge vs. teams with a winning record
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): BUF-HOU (o/u at 43.5)
Primetime dogs are 18-16 ATS (53%) with a 1% ROI this season and 159-142 ATS (53%) with a 1% ROI since 2020. Conference primetime dogs are 17-9 ATS (65%) with a 24% ROI this season and 121-101 ATS (55%) with a 5% ROI since 2020.
Primetime dogs getting 5.5-points or more are 9-5 ATS (64%) with a 22% ROI this season and 73-53 ATS (58%) with an 11% ROI since 2020.
Houston has correlative betting value as a dog in a low total game (43.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover the number.
Josh Allen is 25-27 ATS (48%) as a favorite of 5.5-points or more in his regular season career. If favored by 5.5-points or more in a conference game, Allen is just 16-20 ATS (44%).
The Texans have the edge defensively, allowing just 16.3 PPG (1st in the NFL) while the Bills are giving up 22.9 PPG (14th).
In terms of the total, it has remained largely static at 43.5. Some shops briefly ticked up to 44 before falling back down to 43.5.
At DraftKings, the over is taking in 57% of bets and 67% of dollars. However, at Circa the under is receiving 44% of bets and 63% of dollars.
Primetime unders are 21-16 (57%) with an 8% ROI this season and 211-152 (58%) with a 12% ROI since 2019.
CNOTES NFL BEST BETS !
11/20/2025.................2 - 0 - 0...........100.00%............+ 10.00
11/16/2025...............10 - 6 - 0............62.50%.............+ 17.00
11/10/2025.................1 - 1 - 0............50.00%.............- 0.50
11/09/2025.................3 - 9 - 0............25.00%.............-34.50
11/06/2025.................1 - 1 - 0............50.00%.............- 0.50
11/02/2025.................4 - 8 - 0............33.33%.............- 24.00
TOTALS.....................21 -25 - 0............45.65%.............- 32.50
11/20/2025.................2 - 0 - 0...........100.00%............+ 10.00
11/16/2025...............10 - 6 - 0............62.50%.............+ 17.00
11/10/2025.................1 - 1 - 0............50.00%.............- 0.50
11/09/2025.................3 - 9 - 0............25.00%.............-34.50
11/06/2025.................1 - 1 - 0............50.00%.............- 0.50
11/02/2025.................4 - 8 - 0............33.33%.............- 24.00
TOTALS.....................21 -25 - 0............45.65%.............- 32.50
Friday’s 6-pack:
Teams shooting the most 3-pointers so far this month…….
57.1% of their shots are 3’s— New Mexico State
55.8%— Colorado State
55.2%— Army
54.3%— VMI
52.9%— Wisconsin
52.8%— Cornell, William & Mary
Quote of the Day
“It’s unacceptable. We understand as an offense, we have to be better, I have to be better, protecting the football. We’re doing everything that we can in practice and when the game comes to try to take care of the football a little bit better.”
Seahawks QB Sam Darnold
Friday’s quiz
Jared Goff was the first pick in the 2016 NFL Draft; who was the second pick?
Thursday’s quiz
Shaquille O’Neal played his college basketball at LSU
Wednesday’s quiz
2105 was the last time Kentucky’s basketball team made the Final Four.
************************************
Bills had ball on Houston 22-yard line on last drive, but didn’t score.
Texans were outgained 326-261, but were +3 in turnovers.
Houston is 6-2 in last eight games, after an 0-3 start.
Texans are 5-0 when they score 20+ points.
Bills only scored one offensive TD on 10 drives; they kicked two FG’s.
Buffalo led 16-13 after a 97-yard kick return for a TD.
Buffalo scored 28+ points in wins, 20-14-13-19 in losses.
Bills are 0-6 SU/1-5 ATS in last six visits to Houston.
— Cal Poly 92, Utah 85
Mustangs were a 14-point underdog.
Cal Poly shot 14-25 on the arc in a fast (84 possessions) game.
Mustangs are playing the #2 pace in country so far this month.
Cal Poly is 3-3; they don’t play a D-I home game until December 6th.
— Kansas State 98, Mississippi State 77
Wildcats made 14-30 on the arc, scored 1.31 ppp.
PJ Haggerty scored 37 points, had 8 assists.
K-State is 5-0, with top 100 wins over Miss State, Cal.
— Central Florida 77, Pittsburgh 67
Knights shot 60.5% inside the arc.
UCF is 5-1, with top 100 wins over Pitt, Texas A&M
Pittsburgh is 0-2 vs teams ranked in the top 150.
Baha Mar tournament
— Purdue 80, Memphis 71
Boilermakers shot 54.3% inside the arc, scored 1.18 ppp.
Memphis was 17-25 on foul line, Purdue 9-11
Purdue- Texas Tech is final of this tournament Friday night.
— Texas Tech 84, Wake Forest 83
Wake led by 7 with 13:16 left inn the game.
Deacons were only 13-22 on the foul line.
Tech is 4-1, with an 81-77 loss at Illinois.
Tech had 16 offensive boards, out-rebounded Wake 44-33.
— One of the quirks of the NIL era, especially in basketball, has to be team chemistry; Player A transferred in and got $2M to play, will Player B resent that money? Player C?
Watching the games may be more critical than ever before; stats/numbers are important, but observing how teams work together can tell you a lot.
— These days, college basketball in November is about gathering knowledge, figuring out who is where, who did the best raiding the transfer portal. It has been suggested that coaches who have been junior college coaches have an advantage— JC coaches re-stock their rosters every year, that is the nature of the job at that level. More and more, D-I ball is becoming like that.
— Famous birthdays, November 21st:
Marlo Thomas, 88
Goldie Hawn, 80
Bill Almon, 73
Troy Aikman, 59
Ken Griffey Jr, 56
Michael Strahan, 54
Danny Kanell, 52
Stromile Swift, 46
Jena Malone, 41
Brice Turang, 26
— Louisiana 34, Arkansas State 30
Cajuns stopped Ark State on the 1-yard line on last play of the game.
Louisiana ran ball 46 times for 202 yards.
ULL had 11 penalties for 76 yards, Red Wolves 1 for 15.
Both teams need to win their last game to become bowl eligible.
— Sounds like the MLB.TV package is moving to the ESPN app; pretty soon we’ll need a scorecard to tell which leagues are televised on which channels.
— Phillies-Twins are going to play a Field of Dreams game in Iowa next summer.
— Astros traded utility guy Mauricio Dubon to Atlanta for SS Nick Allen; Dubon is versatile, Allen is a slick fielder who can’t hit a lick.
— Good program on Netflix; Last Chance U, about junior colleges and players who play there, trying to get scholarships to four-year schools. There is a football version and one for basketball that provide insight on what kids/coaches go through, behind the scenes.
— Ben DiNucci/Chase Daniel were both backup QB’s in NFL who have a presence on social media now; this week, they’ve both been talking about how backup QBs don’t get many practice reps with the first team offense, which makes it tougher for them when they become starters.
— Jay Bilas has gotten better (less annoying) as a TV analyst since Mike Krzyzewski retired as coach of Duke; less critiquing of refs, more normal analysis, but when he works a Duke game, like he did this week, it is still the basketball equivalent of fingernails on a chalkboard.
— There’s a chance I watch too much TV; there are an incredible amount of podcasts posted on YouTube, on a wide variety of subjects. You have to pick/choose to find the good ones, but once you do, there is good information to be had.
Late Tuesday night I watched a fantasy baseball draft; 15 teams, 23 rounds, was interesting to hear opinions about the 345 players who were drafted.
Teams shooting the most 3-pointers so far this month…….
57.1% of their shots are 3’s— New Mexico State
55.8%— Colorado State
55.2%— Army
54.3%— VMI
52.9%— Wisconsin
52.8%— Cornell, William & Mary
Quote of the Day
“It’s unacceptable. We understand as an offense, we have to be better, I have to be better, protecting the football. We’re doing everything that we can in practice and when the game comes to try to take care of the football a little bit better.”
Seahawks QB Sam Darnold
Friday’s quiz
Jared Goff was the first pick in the 2016 NFL Draft; who was the second pick?
Thursday’s quiz
Shaquille O’Neal played his college basketball at LSU
Wednesday’s quiz
2105 was the last time Kentucky’s basketball team made the Final Four.
************************************
Friday’s Den: Random stuff with the weekend here…….
— Texans 23, Bills 19Bills had ball on Houston 22-yard line on last drive, but didn’t score.
Texans were outgained 326-261, but were +3 in turnovers.
Houston is 6-2 in last eight games, after an 0-3 start.
Texans are 5-0 when they score 20+ points.
Bills only scored one offensive TD on 10 drives; they kicked two FG’s.
Buffalo led 16-13 after a 97-yard kick return for a TD.
Buffalo scored 28+ points in wins, 20-14-13-19 in losses.
Bills are 0-6 SU/1-5 ATS in last six visits to Houston.
— Cal Poly 92, Utah 85
Mustangs were a 14-point underdog.
Cal Poly shot 14-25 on the arc in a fast (84 possessions) game.
Mustangs are playing the #2 pace in country so far this month.
Cal Poly is 3-3; they don’t play a D-I home game until December 6th.
— Kansas State 98, Mississippi State 77
Wildcats made 14-30 on the arc, scored 1.31 ppp.
PJ Haggerty scored 37 points, had 8 assists.
K-State is 5-0, with top 100 wins over Miss State, Cal.
— Central Florida 77, Pittsburgh 67
Knights shot 60.5% inside the arc.
UCF is 5-1, with top 100 wins over Pitt, Texas A&M
Pittsburgh is 0-2 vs teams ranked in the top 150.
Baha Mar tournament
— Purdue 80, Memphis 71
Boilermakers shot 54.3% inside the arc, scored 1.18 ppp.
Memphis was 17-25 on foul line, Purdue 9-11
Purdue- Texas Tech is final of this tournament Friday night.
— Texas Tech 84, Wake Forest 83
Wake led by 7 with 13:16 left inn the game.
Deacons were only 13-22 on the foul line.
Tech is 4-1, with an 81-77 loss at Illinois.
Tech had 16 offensive boards, out-rebounded Wake 44-33.
— One of the quirks of the NIL era, especially in basketball, has to be team chemistry; Player A transferred in and got $2M to play, will Player B resent that money? Player C?
Watching the games may be more critical than ever before; stats/numbers are important, but observing how teams work together can tell you a lot.
— These days, college basketball in November is about gathering knowledge, figuring out who is where, who did the best raiding the transfer portal. It has been suggested that coaches who have been junior college coaches have an advantage— JC coaches re-stock their rosters every year, that is the nature of the job at that level. More and more, D-I ball is becoming like that.
— Famous birthdays, November 21st:
Marlo Thomas, 88
Goldie Hawn, 80
Bill Almon, 73
Troy Aikman, 59
Ken Griffey Jr, 56
Michael Strahan, 54
Danny Kanell, 52
Stromile Swift, 46
Jena Malone, 41
Brice Turang, 26
— Louisiana 34, Arkansas State 30
Cajuns stopped Ark State on the 1-yard line on last play of the game.
Louisiana ran ball 46 times for 202 yards.
ULL had 11 penalties for 76 yards, Red Wolves 1 for 15.
Both teams need to win their last game to become bowl eligible.
— Sounds like the MLB.TV package is moving to the ESPN app; pretty soon we’ll need a scorecard to tell which leagues are televised on which channels.
— Phillies-Twins are going to play a Field of Dreams game in Iowa next summer.
— Astros traded utility guy Mauricio Dubon to Atlanta for SS Nick Allen; Dubon is versatile, Allen is a slick fielder who can’t hit a lick.
— Good program on Netflix; Last Chance U, about junior colleges and players who play there, trying to get scholarships to four-year schools. There is a football version and one for basketball that provide insight on what kids/coaches go through, behind the scenes.
— Ben DiNucci/Chase Daniel were both backup QB’s in NFL who have a presence on social media now; this week, they’ve both been talking about how backup QBs don’t get many practice reps with the first team offense, which makes it tougher for them when they become starters.
— Jay Bilas has gotten better (less annoying) as a TV analyst since Mike Krzyzewski retired as coach of Duke; less critiquing of refs, more normal analysis, but when he works a Duke game, like he did this week, it is still the basketball equivalent of fingernails on a chalkboard.
— There’s a chance I watch too much TV; there are an incredible amount of podcasts posted on YouTube, on a wide variety of subjects. You have to pick/choose to find the good ones, but once you do, there is good information to be had.
Late Tuesday night I watched a fantasy baseball draft; 15 teams, 23 rounds, was interesting to hear opinions about the 345 players who were drafted.
Saturday’s 6-pack:
— Nets 113, Celtics 105- Nic Claxton had his first triple-double in NBA
— Suns 114, Minnesota 113- Timberwolves led by 8 with 1:09 left.
— Nuggets 112, Rockets 109- Jokic had 34 points, 10 rebounds, 9 assists
— Trail Blazers 127, Warriors 123- Deni Avdija had 26 points, 14 assists.
— UNLV 38, Hawai’i 10- QB Colandrea threw 3 TD’s for the 9-2 Rebels.
— NC State 21, Florida State 11- Wolfpack is 6-5; they’re bowl eligible.
Quote of the Day
“The whole reason you do all this is to start a season with a potential contender that has an ace. You can’t throw that away before the season starts. How long will it take to get here again?”
Unnamed baseball executive, on whether the Tigers should trade Tarik Skubal
Saturday’s quiz
Green Bay Packers won the first two Super Bowls; who won Super Bowl III?
Friday’s quiz
Jared Goff was the first pick in the 2016 NFL Draft; Carson Wentz was the second pick.
Thursday’s quiz
Shaquille O’Neal played his college basketball at LSU
*********************************************
Purdue had a 20-0 run, led 49-26 at halftime.
Boilers are 6-0, with four top 75 wins.
Purdue out-rebounded Tech 43-25.
Right now, November 22, Purdue is the best team in the country.
— Wake Forest 69, Memphis 68
Deacons ran the Bryce Drew play, hit a 3-pointer at the buzzer for a comeback win.
Memphis led 19-6 early, but they’re 1-4, their worst start in long time.
Memphis is #45 in experience, but #345 in continuity; they’re getting used to each other.
— Nebraska 86, Kansas State 85
Nebraska shot 25-29 (86.2%) inside arc, only 8-32 on arc.
Cornhuskers led by 10 at the half, trailed by 5 with 7:21 left to play.
Nebraska has won 10 in a row, longest win streak in country.
— Louisville 74, Cincinnati 64
Cincinnati led 32-28 at halftime.
Louisville was 24-28 on foul line, Bearcats 10-16.
Louisville is 5-0, with wins over Cincinnati, Kentucky.
— Clemson 70, West Virginia 67
WVU led by 11 points with 10:57 left in the game.
Clemson shot 56.7% inside the arc.
Clemson had five guys score in double figures, including two subs.
— Georgia 78, Xavier 77
Dawgs hit a 3-pointer with 0:11 left to pull out a win.
Georgia led by 14 early in second half.
Georgia’s subs played total of 63:00, Xavier’s only 31:00
— Seattle 77, Stanford 69
Stanford led by 13 with 10:55 left in the game.
Seattle was 20-24 on foul line, Cardinal 16-25.
Seattle is 4-1; they’re #10 in country in eFG%.
— Famous birthdays, November 22nd:
Rich McKinney, 79
Jack Reynolds, 78
Greg Luzinski, 75
Jamie Lee Curtis, 67
Mark Malone, 67
Hugh Millen, 62
Benoit Benjamin, 61
Eric Allen, 60
Mark Ruffalo, 58
Ricky Ledee, 52
Scarlett Johansson, 41
Adam Ottavino, 40
Brock Osweiler, 35
Griffin Jax, 31
Missed a birthday Friday; Earl Monroe, the great basketball player, turned 81 on Friday.
— Virginia 83, Northwestern 78
Cavaliers were 30-36 on foul line, Northwestern 17-24.
Virginia had 21 offensive boards, out-rebounded Wildcats 49-25.
Virginia is 5-0, scoring 89.2 ppg; Ryan Odom is an excellent coach.
— Butler 79, South Carolina 72
Butler out-rebounded the Gamecocks, 48-29.
South Carolina never led; they shot 7-26 on the arc.
Big East team over an SEC team has significance for both leagues.
— Utah State 96, Tulane 75
Aggies shot 12-23 on the arc, 68.6% inside arc; they scored 1.39 ppp.
Tulane shot 15-30 on the arc, still lost by 21.
Utah State always seems to win, but with lot of different coaches:
1998-2015- Stew Morrill, 402-156
2015-18- Tim Duryea, 48-49
2018-21- Craig Smith, 74-24
2021-2023- Ryan Odom, 44-25
2023-24- Danny Sprinkle, 28-7
2024-26- Jerrod Calhoun, 31-8
— Kind of similar to VCU’s recent history:
2003-06- Jeff Capel, 79-41
2006-09- Anthony Grant, 76-25
2009-15- Shaka Smart, 161-56
2015-17- Will Wade, 51-20
2017-23- Mike Rhoades, 129-61
2024-26- Ryan Odom, 52-21
2025-26- Phil Martelli Jr, 2-2
— USC 107, Troy 106 3OT- This game was Thursday night
Troy led by 6 with 1:43 left in the third OT
USC led by 11 with 9:37 left in regulation.
This was Troy’s 4th game in seven nights in the Los Angeles area; they won in double OT at San Diego State Tuesday, then played this game in triple OT two nights later.
Five players fouled out of this game.
Four players played 47:00+ in this game.
USC was 34-46 on the foul line, Troy 25-35.
USC subs were a combined 4-13 from the floor, Troy 2-11.
One of the most interesting games I’ve watched in years.
— Nets 113, Celtics 105- Nic Claxton had his first triple-double in NBA
— Suns 114, Minnesota 113- Timberwolves led by 8 with 1:09 left.
— Nuggets 112, Rockets 109- Jokic had 34 points, 10 rebounds, 9 assists
— Trail Blazers 127, Warriors 123- Deni Avdija had 26 points, 14 assists.
— UNLV 38, Hawai’i 10- QB Colandrea threw 3 TD’s for the 9-2 Rebels.
— NC State 21, Florida State 11- Wolfpack is 6-5; they’re bowl eligible.
Quote of the Day
“The whole reason you do all this is to start a season with a potential contender that has an ace. You can’t throw that away before the season starts. How long will it take to get here again?”
Unnamed baseball executive, on whether the Tigers should trade Tarik Skubal
Saturday’s quiz
Green Bay Packers won the first two Super Bowls; who won Super Bowl III?
Friday’s quiz
Jared Goff was the first pick in the 2016 NFL Draft; Carson Wentz was the second pick.
Thursday’s quiz
Shaquille O’Neal played his college basketball at LSU
*********************************************
Saturday’s Den: Wrapping up a college football Friday…….
— Purdue 86, Texas Tech 56Purdue had a 20-0 run, led 49-26 at halftime.
Boilers are 6-0, with four top 75 wins.
Purdue out-rebounded Tech 43-25.
Right now, November 22, Purdue is the best team in the country.
— Wake Forest 69, Memphis 68
Deacons ran the Bryce Drew play, hit a 3-pointer at the buzzer for a comeback win.
Memphis led 19-6 early, but they’re 1-4, their worst start in long time.
Memphis is #45 in experience, but #345 in continuity; they’re getting used to each other.
— Nebraska 86, Kansas State 85
Nebraska shot 25-29 (86.2%) inside arc, only 8-32 on arc.
Cornhuskers led by 10 at the half, trailed by 5 with 7:21 left to play.
Nebraska has won 10 in a row, longest win streak in country.
— Louisville 74, Cincinnati 64
Cincinnati led 32-28 at halftime.
Louisville was 24-28 on foul line, Bearcats 10-16.
Louisville is 5-0, with wins over Cincinnati, Kentucky.
— Clemson 70, West Virginia 67
WVU led by 11 points with 10:57 left in the game.
Clemson shot 56.7% inside the arc.
Clemson had five guys score in double figures, including two subs.
— Georgia 78, Xavier 77
Dawgs hit a 3-pointer with 0:11 left to pull out a win.
Georgia led by 14 early in second half.
Georgia’s subs played total of 63:00, Xavier’s only 31:00
— Seattle 77, Stanford 69
Stanford led by 13 with 10:55 left in the game.
Seattle was 20-24 on foul line, Cardinal 16-25.
Seattle is 4-1; they’re #10 in country in eFG%.
— Famous birthdays, November 22nd:
Rich McKinney, 79
Jack Reynolds, 78
Greg Luzinski, 75
Jamie Lee Curtis, 67
Mark Malone, 67
Hugh Millen, 62
Benoit Benjamin, 61
Eric Allen, 60
Mark Ruffalo, 58
Ricky Ledee, 52
Scarlett Johansson, 41
Adam Ottavino, 40
Brock Osweiler, 35
Griffin Jax, 31
Missed a birthday Friday; Earl Monroe, the great basketball player, turned 81 on Friday.
— Virginia 83, Northwestern 78
Cavaliers were 30-36 on foul line, Northwestern 17-24.
Virginia had 21 offensive boards, out-rebounded Wildcats 49-25.
Virginia is 5-0, scoring 89.2 ppg; Ryan Odom is an excellent coach.
— Butler 79, South Carolina 72
Butler out-rebounded the Gamecocks, 48-29.
South Carolina never led; they shot 7-26 on the arc.
Big East team over an SEC team has significance for both leagues.
— Utah State 96, Tulane 75
Aggies shot 12-23 on the arc, 68.6% inside arc; they scored 1.39 ppp.
Tulane shot 15-30 on the arc, still lost by 21.
Utah State always seems to win, but with lot of different coaches:
1998-2015- Stew Morrill, 402-156
2015-18- Tim Duryea, 48-49
2018-21- Craig Smith, 74-24
2021-2023- Ryan Odom, 44-25
2023-24- Danny Sprinkle, 28-7
2024-26- Jerrod Calhoun, 31-8
— Kind of similar to VCU’s recent history:
2003-06- Jeff Capel, 79-41
2006-09- Anthony Grant, 76-25
2009-15- Shaka Smart, 161-56
2015-17- Will Wade, 51-20
2017-23- Mike Rhoades, 129-61
2024-26- Ryan Odom, 52-21
2025-26- Phil Martelli Jr, 2-2
— USC 107, Troy 106 3OT- This game was Thursday night
Troy led by 6 with 1:43 left in the third OT
USC led by 11 with 9:37 left in regulation.
This was Troy’s 4th game in seven nights in the Los Angeles area; they won in double OT at San Diego State Tuesday, then played this game in triple OT two nights later.
Five players fouled out of this game.
Four players played 47:00+ in this game.
USC was 34-46 on the foul line, Troy 25-35.
USC subs were a combined 4-13 from the floor, Troy 2-11.
One of the most interesting games I’ve watched in years.
