CNOTES 2025-2026 FOOTBALL SCHEDULE + NEWS, NOTES BEST BETS !

[CNOTES]

Wednesday’s 6-pack:
Andy Katz’s top 6 college basketball rivalries:
— North Carolina vs Duke
— Louisville vs Kentucky
— Purdue vs Indiana
— Michigan State vs Michigan
— Kentucky vs Florida
— Tennessee vs Kentucky

Quote of the Day
“I don’t know how to explain it… he’s nasty. I got a ton of respect for him. He gets me a lot and I’ve gotten him.”
Tigers OF Kerry Carpenter, who is 5-11 vs George Kirby, with five home runs

Wednesday’s quiz
In 2019, Arizona Diamondbacks traded Jazz Chisholm to the Marlins; what pitcher did Arizona get in return for him?

Tuesday’s quiz
Patrick Mahomes’ father pitched for six different teams in his 11-year major league career; he spent the most time (5 years) pitching for the Twins.

Monday’s quiz
Last time Toronto Blue Jays won a playoff series was 2016; they beat Texas in that series.

*********************************************

Wednesday’s Den: Our first look at Big East basketball teams…….​

This is the time of year where seasons overlap; college basketball starts November 3rd. Here is an early look at the Big East Conference:

— Butler (15-20, 6-14 LY)
haven’t made the NCAA’s since 2018.
shot 37% behind the arc last year (#31)
added senior G Jackson, first-team Horizon League all-star LY
6-7 senior Ajayi scored 17.2 ppg for Pepperdine two years ago, then bolted to Gonzaga, but only scored 7.4 ppg LY, so he is at his third school in three years.

— UConn (24-11, 14-6 LY)
made NCAA’s last 5 years, won 2/last 3 national titles.
last two years, played slow pace (#343/#330)
are deeper this year, expect to play faster.
brought in transfer point guards, from Georgia/Dayton.
62% of their scoring from LY is back, which is a lot.
odd stat; they lost their last four visits to Seton Hall.

— Creighton (25-11, 15-5 LY)
made last 5 NCAA’s, making Sweet 16 three times.
top four scorers from last year are gone.
added five transfers TY, including two from Iowa.
were 3rd-worst team in country at forcing turnovers LY.
have better depth this year (#295/bench minutes LY)

— DePaul (14-20, 4-16 LY)
haven’t made NCAA Tournament since 2004
have been .500 in conference games since 2007.
48.8% of scoring is back from LY, which is good.
only Big East team whose leading scorer is back.
added 5 transfers this year.
shot 34.4% on arc LY; transfer RJ Smith shot 38.6% on arc, at Colorado.

— Georgetown (18-16, 8-12 LY)
made 1 of last 8 NCAA Tourneys (2021)
last four years, they’re 12-67 in conference games.
added six transfers TY, including three big guys
junior PG was once Ivy League Rookie of Year at Harvard
need better shooting (shot 32.3% on arc LY)
were 10-3 out of conference LY, but they played easiest non-conference schedule in country.

— Marquette (23-11, 13-7 LY)
made NCAA Tournament last four years, going 3-4.
under Smart, they’re 61-27 in Big East games.
forced turnovers 21.7% of time LY (#18)
were #3 in country in turnover margin LY.
were #279 in rebounding margin LY.
lost top three scorers from LY, get PG Jones back (was hurt LY)

Famous birthdays, October 8th:
Chevy Chase, 82
Sigourney Weaver, 76
Enos Cabell, 76
Mike Morgan, 66
Tony Eason, 66
Emily Procter, 57
Matt Damon, 55
Monty Williams, 54
Olmedo Saenz, 55
Nick Allen, 27
Hunter Goodman, 26
Isaiah Collier, 21

— Providence (12-20, 6-14)
missed NCAA’s the last two years.
best player was hurt LY, then bolted to St John’s.
Friars lost 10 of their last 11 games LY.
were #346 LY in forcing turnovers.
added three transfers to bolster their backcourt.
shot 35.6% on arc LY (#76); 45.5% of their shots were 3’s (#50)

— Seton Hall (7-25, 2-18 LY)
LY, had #356 eFG% offense.
LY, had #335 eFG% defense.
forced turnovers 22.2% of time LY (#8)
their NIL budget is $1.5M, about 1/3 of most Big East teams.
haven’t made NCAA’s since 2022.
senior F Fisher played last 3 years at: Texas Tech, DePaul, Pacific

— St John’s (31-5, 18-2 LY)
made NCAA’s LY for first time since 2019
have 11 games this year at Madison Square Garden; high expectations.
were #317 in bench minutes LY.
Shot 30.1% on arc last year (#340)
added 6 transfers this year, 4 of them guards.
big guy Ejiofor scored 14.7 ppg LY, grabbed 8.1 rebounds/game.

— Villanova (21-15, 11-9 LY)
were 31-29 in Big East in 3 years under Neptune (0-0 in NCAA’s).
Kevin Willard is new coach; he’s made NCAA’s 7 of last 9 years.
Villanova’s subs played #358 minutes LY.
Willard added 11 transfers; they’re deeper, will play faster.
Last 4 years, Devin Askew has played for Cal, Texas, Kentucky, Long Beach State

— Xavier (22-12, 13-7 LY)
made NCAA’s twice in last seven years.
Richard Pitino is new coach (27-11 conference games last 2 years)
Pitino’s Lobos were in top 25 in tempo all four years he was there.
Pitino added 10 transfers TY; six of them scored double figures LY.
Those six transfers come from smaller programs:
Belmont, Boise State, Evansville, Montana, North Dakota, Valparaiso

 

[Udog]

Thursday’s 6-pack:
Cleveland Browns are paying 8 quarterbacks this season:
$1.1M— Dillon Gabriel
$955K— Shedeur Sanders
$315K— Bailey Zappe
$35.9M— Deshaun Watson
$2.2M— Jameis Winston
$999K— Joe Flacco
$171K— Dorian Thompson-Robinson
$8K—Kenny Pickett

Quote of the Day
“Early on in my career, it was ‘cocky, immature.’ Now it’s ‘moxie’ and ‘he’s a dog.’…….as long as you play well, they change the narrative, but you’ve just got to be yourself, and I’ve always been like that.”
Baker Mayfield

Thursday’s quiz
In the movie The Bodyguard, when Whitney Houston’s character wins an Academy Award, what well-known actor was the MC of the ceremony?

Wednesday’s quiz
In 2019, Arizona Diamondbacks traded Jazz Chisholm to the Marlins; Arizona got Zac Gallen in return for him.

Tuesday’s quiz
Patrick Mahomes’ father pitched for six different teams in his 11-year major league career; he spent the most time (5 years) pitching for the Twins.

*****************************************

Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud…….​

— Couple nights ago, was watching YouTube late at night, and every MLB team has at least one podcast on there. Guys like me, sitting on their couch, spewing opinions about what went right or wrong this season. Some of them are good, some of them aren’t.
First of all, I couldn’t talk for an hour straight like that- no way. They must have notes or a script to follow, but that’s not my thing. Two-person podcasts are better, by the way.
My question is this: If you’re a major league player, and you make a few million $$$ a year, do you ever listen to these podcasts? Do you dismiss these nerdy types as wannabe athletes and ignore them?
Two guys do a podcast about the Cincinnati Reds; you would never know that the Reds made the playoffs this year, for only the second time in 12 years. Lot of criticism.

— Tigers 9, Mariners 3
Mariners led this game 3-0 in the fifth inning.
Javier Baez went 2-for-4, with 4 RBI
Riley Greene, Gleyber Torres also homered.
Game 5 is in Seattle on Friday

— Cubs 4, Brewers 3
Cubs scored four runs in the first inning and made them stand up.
Chicago bullpen got the last 15 outs, allowed only two hits.
Jake Bauers homered for Milwaukee.
Game 4 is at Wrigley Thursday.

— Wednesday was the last day this year with more than two baseball games.

— Mets went 83-79 this year, missed the playoffs, then fired the pitching coach, both their hitting coaches, their 3rd base coach, their catchers’ coach and the bench coach.
Somehow the “strategy coach” didn’t get fired; not really sure what he does, but if a team fires six of their coaches, how good could their strategy have been?
Turns out the strategy coach is a 35-year old ex-pitcher who went to Princeton, majoring in economics. He pitched in 119 games for Toronto, posting a 4.33 ERA in 120.2 IP.
David Stearns, who runs the Mets’ front office, went to Harvard, where he was a writer for the school’s newspaper.

Famous birthdays, October 9th:
Freddie Patek, 81
Shera Danese, 76
Brian Downing, 75
Robert Wuhl, 74
Scott Bakula, 71
John O’Hurley, 70
Mike Singletary, 67
Kenny Anderson, 55
Dexter McCleon, 52
Mark McLemore, 45
Derek Holland, 39
Starling Marte, 37

— Cleveland Browns traded 40-year old QB Joe Flacco to division rival Cincinnati Tuesday, and Flacco will start for the 2-3 Bengals this week in Green Bay.
Flacco has a career record of 116-95, 10-6 in playoff games.
The move leaves Cleveland with two rookie QB’s, Dillon Gabriel/Shedeur Sanders, as well as journeyman Bailey Zappe, who is 4-5 in nine NFL starts.

— Browns don’t have a bye week after playing in England Sunday, which is unusual, Team that didn’t have a bye week after playing overseas are:
11-6 SU/9-8 ATS. Browns are +5.5 in Pittsburgh Sunday.

— Indianapolis Colts lost their kicker (knee) for the year last week; they signed Michael Badgley as their new kicker. Badgley kicked for the Colts in 2021.

— Virginia off to a 5-1 start this season; they beat Louisville 30-27 in OT last week, in a game where they got outgained, 383-239, but the Cavaliers scored two defensive TD’s, and held Louisville to 54 rushing yards on 27 tries.

— Best college football teams against the spread this year:
6-0 Memphis
5-0 Louisiana Tech
5-0 Texas Tech
5-0 Utah State
4-0-1 Ohio State

— This past week was the first time the Ravens, Bills, Chiefs all lost in the same since Week 9 of the 2017 season, when Josh Allen/Lamar Jackson were still in college.

— 5-0 college teams that haven’t been 5-0 in a while
1959- North Texas
1974- UNLV
2013- Texas Tech
2014- Georgia Tech
2016- Texas Q&M
2022- Ole Miss

 

[Udog]

NFL
Weather Report

Monday, October 6

NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 6

Thursday
Eagles (–6.5) @ Giants
Eagles (4-1)
Eagles are 4-1, with wins by 4-3-7-6 points.
Eagles have been outgained in all five games.
Last three games, Eagles were held to 86-88-45 rushing yards.
QB Hurts is 55-24 as an NFL starter.
Sirianni is 57-24 as an NFL coach.


Star RB Barkley is banged up (check status)
Philly is 6-2 ATS in last eight games as a road favorite.
Under Sirianni, Philly is 7-10 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Eagles are 4-10-1 ATS in last 15 NFC East road games.
NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 2-6 ATS


Giants (1-4)
Giants split rookie QB Dart’s first two starts.
Last two weeks, Giants allowed 3 offensive TD’s on 22 drives.
LW, Giants were minus-5 in turnovers (86-yard fumble return TD)
Rookie QB Dart is 1-1 as an NFL starter.
Daboll is 20-37-1 as an NFL head coach.


Last three weeks, Giants ran ball for 142.3 yards/game.
Giants have converted only 21 of 65 third down plays.
Under Daboll, Giants are 11-10-1 ATS as a home underdog
Under Daboll, Giants are 18-15 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Giants are 5-7 ATS in last 12 NFC East home games.


Philly won 20 of last 24 meetings.
Eagles are 8-4 SU/7-5 ATS in last 12 visits to the Garden State.
Under is 9-3 in last 12 series games.

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday, October 9​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
PHI at NYG	08:15 PM	PHI -7.0 U 40.5	+500 +500

 

[CNOTES]

CNOTES NFL BEST BETS FOR OCTOBER !

10/09/2025.....................0 - 2 - 0..........................00.00%...................- 11.00
10/06/2025......................0 - 2 - 0.........................00.00%....................- 11.00
10/05/2025......................9 - 3 - 0.........................75.00%....................+ 28.50
10/02/2025......................1 - 1 - 0.........................50.00%....................- 0.50

TOTALS...........................10 - 8 -- 0........................55.55%......................+ 6.00

 

[CNOTES]

Friday’s 6-pack:
College basketball roster continuity, by conference:
62%— Ivy League
57.9%— Patriot League
36.2%— MAAC
33.6%— Summit League
33.5%— Atlantic Sun
33.2%— Ohio Valley

Quote of the Day
“They just see that we’ve got a chance. Defense is doing a good enough job to help us out. Our playmakers gotta make plays in space. That’s what they see. That’s what they want — is to keep going. They’re just giving us an opportunity to make more of those plays happen.”
WR Ja’Marr Chase, talking about the Bengals trading for QB Joe Flacco

Friday’s quiz
Where did Joe Flacco play his college football?

Thursday’s quiz
In the movie The Bodyguard, when Whitney Houston’s character wins an Academy Award, Robert Wuhl was the MC of the ceremony.

Wednesday’s quiz
In 2019, Arizona Diamondbacks traded Jazz Chisholm to the Marlins; Arizona got Zac Gallen in return for him.

*****************************************

Friday’s Den: Random stuff, with the weekend here…….​

Giants 34, Eagles 17
Giants in first half: 28 plays, 193 yards, 20 points.
Eagles in 2nd half: 21 plays, 140 yards, no points, 2 turnovers.
Giants ran ball 39 times for 172 yards, were +2 in turnovers.
Giants were 11-16 on third down, Eagles 1-9
Rookie RB Skattebo ran ball 19 times for 98 yards, 3 TD’s.
Giants have won two of three games started by rookie QB Dart.
Barkley carried ball 12 times for 58 yards.
Eagles have been outgained in all six of their games.

— Dodgers 2, Phillies 1 (11)
Winning run scored on an error on a ball hit back to the pitcher.
Game was scoreless after six innings.
Both teams scored a run in the 7th.
Dodgers advance to the NLCS, starting Monday.

— Cubs 5, Brewers 0
Matthew Boyd got the first 14 outs, allowing two hits.
Ian Happ hit a 3-run homer in the first inning.
Game 5 is in Milwaukee Saturday.

— Southern Miss 38, Georgia Southern 35
Golden Eagles led 28-7 at halftime, hung on for dear life.
Southern Miss ran ball 48 times for 184 yards.
Georgia Southern had 3 turnovers, 12 penalties for 104 yards.

— Tulane 26, East Carolina 19
Green Wave drove 75 yards, scored winning TD with 0:35 left
Tulane led 12-0 at halftime.
Tulane outgained ECU 458-340; they had 96 penalty yards.

— Jacksonville State 29, Sam Houston State 27
Gamecocks kicked a 52-yard FG at the gun for a road win.
Jax State outgained the Bearkats, 499-286.
Jax State ran the ball 63 times for 370 yards.

— Kennesaw State 35, Louisiana Tech 7
Dexter Williams threw for 284 yards, four TD’s.
Owls outscored Louisiana Tech 21-0 in second half.
Kennesaw converted 9-14 third down plays.

Famous birthdays, October 10th:
Gene Tenace, 79
Ben Vereen, 79
Bradley Whitford, 66
Brett Favre, 56
Pat Burrell, 49
Jodi Lyn O’Keefe, 47
Troy Tulowitzski, 41
Andrew McCutchen, 39
Geno Smith, 35
Lourdes Gurriel Jr, 32
Vinnie Pasquantino, 28
Josh Giddey, 23

— Lebron James is going to miss the start of the NBA season; he is out 3-4 weeks because of sciatica on his right side.
— Only two NBA teams that have never had a Rookie of the Year: Nuggets, Heat.

— Cardinals’ QB Kyler Murray (foot) didn’t practice Wednesday/Thursday; if backup Jacoby Brissett starts Sunday against the Colts, he’ll be the 40th different quarterback to start a game this season.

— In 1970, NFL kickers made 59% of all their field goal attempts.
This year, NFL kickers are making 72% of their FG attempts from 50+ yards out.

— Houston Astros missed the playoffs for the first time since 2016; this week, they cleaned house (kind of), firing:
assistant general manager
both hitting coaches
their catching coach
their trainer
Similar to what the Mets did last week; they kept their GM and their manager, which is kind of weird. If you’re that unhappy with the outcome, how do the managers/GMs keep their jobs?

— Most career postseason home runs:
Manny Ramirez 29
Jose Altuve 27
Kyle Schwarber 23
Bernie Williams 22

— In September, Washington Nationals rookie OF Daylen Like was the first player since Willie Mays in 1957 to hit 7+ triples and 6+ home runs in the same month.

— This season, there were 465 pitch clock violations, down from 602 last year, 1,048 in 2023.
The rule changes MLB put in have done a good job of shortening games.

— Top home run parks in the major leagues this season:
Los Angeles, Toronto, Baltimore, Philadelphia

Worst home run parks:
Pittsburgh, Texas, Arizona, Boston

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday’s 6-pack:
NFL leaders in receiving yards:
588— Puka Nacua, Rams
534— Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks
449— Justin Jefferson, Vikings
445— Emeka Egbuka, Bucs
407— Amon-Ra St Brown, Lions
387— Christian McCaffrey, 49ers

Quote of the Day
“We never give up. We just keep fighting. It doesn’t matter how many innings we play. We just stay ready and wait for the moment. It’s going to come. It was my time.”
Mariners’ 2B Jorge Polanco

Saturday’s quiz
Who was the last defending World Series champ that got back to the World Series the next year?

Friday’s quiz
Joe Flacco played his college football at Pittsburgh, then Delaware.

Thursday’s quiz
In the movie The Bodyguard, when Whitney Houston’s character wins an Academy Award, Robert Wuhl was the MC of the ceremony.

********************************************

Saturday’s Den: Wrapping up a busy Friday night…….​

— Mariners 3, Tigers 2 (15)
Longest winner-take-all playoff game in baseball history.
472 pitches thrown; Mariners used three of their starting pitchers.
Jorge Polanco had a walk-off single to end the game.
Kerry Carpenter was 4-for-5 with two walks for Detroit.
There were 37 strikeouts in this game.
Mariners-Blue Jays play in the ALCS; they came into existence the same year, 1976.

— Modern baseball: Seattle took George Kirby out after he got 15 outs on only 66 pitches. He was pitching on five days rest. Why take him out? He gave up three hits in 5+ IP.

— With Jaxson Dart doing well as a rookie QB, would any NFL team take a look at Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin as a head coach? Coaches who can develop quarterbacks are popular.

— North Carolina’s recent football records:
2024: 6-7
2023: 8-5
2022: 9-5
2021: 6-7
2020: 8-4
2019: 7-6…….so far this year, they’re 2-3
From what you read on the Interweb, hiring Bill Belichick hasn’t gone well, and may not last much longer. Strange situation.

— South Florida 63, North Texas 36
Game was tied 21-21 at halftime.
USF scored four TD’s in a span of 5:45 early in third quarter.
Bulls ran the ball 57 times for 306 yards.

— Colorado State 49, Fresno State 21
Underdog Rams led 35-14 at halftime.
Bulldogs outgained Colorado State 469-334, but had four turnovers.
CSU QB Brousseau threw for 144 yards and three TDs.

— Washington 38, Rutgers 19
Rutgers led 13-10 at halftime.
Huskies’ QB Williams threw for 402 yards, 2 TD’s (14.9 yards/attempt)
Williams also ran the ball 13 times for 136 yards and 2 more TD’s.

Famous birthdays, October 11th:
David Morse, 72
Norm Nixon, 70
John Fourcade, 65
Joan Cusack, 63
Chris Spielman, 60
Matt Bomer, 48
Mike Conley, 38
Gio Urshela, 34
TJ Watt, 31
Brian Allen, 30

— Since 2010, the average payroll for the Bronx Bombers has been $216,082,060 and that includes 2020 (the pandemic year) when they only played 60 games and their payroll that year was $110,852,878.
Over the last 16 years, their average payroll has been $216,082,060, which means that since 2010, they’ve shelled out a total of $3,457,312,965, during which time they’ve made one World Series, and they lost that one.
3 billion dollars, no world titles. Not good.

— Buffalo Bills have played five games; on their first drive of each half, they’ve scored eight TD’s, kicked a field goal, lost a fumble. Tough team to stop.

— In their last four games, Philadelphia Eagles have run the ball for only 73.5 yards/game; they have been outgained in all six games this season.

— Big 18 hasn’t won a national championship in college basketball since Michigan State back in 2000.

— TV show suggestion on Netflix: Running Point- Kate Hudson stars as the owner of a pro basketball team, it is a bizarre version of Lakers’ owner Jeannie Buss’ career/life. Pretty good show.

— Before last week, there were 12,404 people alive in the Circa Casino Survivor Pool in Las Vegas. More than 7,700 of those people got knocked out last week; tough week for favorites.

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday’s 6-pack:
NFL leaders in rushing yards:
480— Jonathan Taylor, Colts
450— James Cook, Bills
447— Javonte Williams, Cowboys
443— Travis Etienne, Jaguars
402— JK Dobbins, Broncos
368— Kyren Williams, Rams

Quote of the Day
“You want to play for someone like Coach Cig, who is so confident in himself that it flows to his players. A lot of people ask, ‘Why [did] you follow Cignetti [from James Madison]?’ This is why. Nothing but complete trust in him. He’s better than anyone in the country. That’s why people want to play for him.”
Indiana LB Aiden Fisher

Sunday’s quiz
When the Jets won their only Super Bowl, who did they beat?

Saturday’s quiz
2008-09 Phillies were the last defending World Series champ that got back to the World Series the next year.

Friday’s quiz
Joe Flacco played his college football at Pittsburgh, then Delaware.

***************************************************

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday…….​

— Brewers 3, Cubs 1
Milwaukee hit three solo homers to move on to the NLCS.
Brewers used five pitchers; Misiorowski got 12 outs, allowed three hits.
Dodgers-Brewers NLCS starts Monday night in Milwaukee.

— Northwestern 22, Penn State 21
Penn State is first team in last 30 years to lose consecutive games, when they were favored by 20+ points in both of them.
Penn State QB Allar hurt his leg, is out for the year.
Northwestern drove 75 yards, scored game-winning TD with 4:51 left
.
— Pittsburgh 34, Florida State 31
QB Heintschel threw for 321 yards, two TD’s.
Both teams averaged over 10 yards/pass attempt.
Florida State has lost its last eight ACC games.

— Alabama 27, Missouri 24
QB Simpson threw for 200 yards, three TD’s.
Alabama has won five in a row since an opening loss to Florida State.
Crimson Tide was 6-15 on third down, Missouri 1-10.

— Upsets of the Week:
Northwestern (+21) 22, Penn State 21
Marshall (+14.5) 48, Old Dominion 24
Bowling Green (+10.5) 28, Toledo 23
Pittsburgh (+10.5) 34, Florida State 31
Troy (+9.5) 48, Texas State 41 OT
Kennesaw State (+7.5) 35, Louisiana Tech 7
UCLA (+7.5) 38, Michigan State 13
Indiana (+7.5) 30, Oregon 20

— Navy 32, Temple 31
QB Horvath ran for 51-yard TD with 0:39 left, then Middies scored a 2-point conversion for the win to stay undefeated (6-0).
Horvath ran for 155 yards, also threw for 141 more.
Temple outgained Navy 518-384; they led 17-7 at halftime.

— Nebraska 34, Maryland 31
Nebraska drove 81 yards, scored game-winning TD with 1:08 left.
QB Raiola threw for 260 yards, four TD’s, but also had 3 INTs
Matt Rhule has the Cornhuskers are 5-1 this season.

— UNLV 51, Air Force 48
QB Colandrea ran for a 19-yard TD with 0:36 for the game-winning TD
Colandrea threw for 361 yards for the 6-0 Rebels, who are bowl-eligible.
Air Force ran ball 66 times for 428 yards, still somehow lost.

— Georgia 20, Auburn 10
Auburn led 10-0 in 2nd quarter, lost a fumble on Georgia’s one-yard line, and it was all downhill from there.
Georgia beat Auburn for the ninth year in a row.
Dawgs won despite running ball 31 times for only 79 yards.
Auburn had 11 penalties for 103 yards

— UCLA 38, Michigan State 13
Bruins won last two games, scoring 42-38 points, after an 0-4 start.
Jalen Berger gained 113 yards on 15 touches, scored three TD’s.
UCLA outgained the Spartans 418-253.

— Famous birthdays, October 12th:
Jack Marin, 81
Susan Anton, 75
Sid Fernandez, 63
Chris Chandler, 60
Hugh Jackman, 57
Leon Lett, 57
Charlie Ward, 55
Ketel Marte, 32

— Ole Miss 24, Washington State 21
Rebels were favored by 32 points, hung on for the win.
Wazzu led 14-10 with 2:00 left in third quarter.
6-0 Ole Miss was 7-15 on third down, Coogs 2-10.

— Troy 48, Texas State 41 OT
QB Kilcrease threw for 415 yards, five TD’s.
Texas State led 31-17 at halftime.
Troy forced OT by scoring a TD with 1:13 left in regulation.
Bobcats lost despite running ball 53 times for 326 yards.

— Indiana 30, Oregon 20
QB Mendoza threw for 215 yards and a TD
Indiana outscored the Ducks 10-0 over the final 7:00.
Oregon’s 18-game how winning streak was snapped.

— BYU 33, Arizona 27 OT
BYU improves to 6-0 with the overtime win.
BYU was 8-16 on 3rd down, Arizona 4-17
BYU ran the ball 51 times for 258 yards.
Arizona led 17-14 at halftime.

— RIP to the great actress Diane Keaton, who passed away at age 79.
She has 283 acting credits on IMDB; she won an Oscar and two Golden Globes.
She was the mom in Father of the Bride; she was in Annie Hall, Baby Boom, And So It Goes, The Godfather, lot of really good movies.
She will be missed. RIP, ma’am.

 

[Udog]

NFL
Weather Report

Friday, October 10

NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 6

Sunday’s games
Jets vs Broncos (–7.5) (@ London)
Jets (0-5)
Jets lost first five games, giving up 34-30-29-27-37 points.
Jets’ losses are by 2-20-2-6-15 points. (opponents over 5-0 team total)
Fields is 14-34 as an NFL starter.
Aaron Glenn is 0-5 as a head coach.


In five games, Jets are minus-8 in turnovers.
Jets are 5-13-1 ATS in last 19 games overall.
Jets are 0-9-1 ATS last 10 games as an underdog.
Jets are 8-16-1 ATS in last 24 games coming off a loss.
AFC East teams are 4-6 ATS in non-conference games.


Broncos (3-2)
Denver’s two losses were by total of four points.
Denver allowed 12-3-17 points in its wins, 28-23 in losses.
QB Nix is 13-10 as an NFL starter.
Payton is 182-116 as an NFL head coach, 21-19 with Denver.


Denver handed Eagles their first loss LW, 21-17.
Under Payton, Denver is 11-8 ATS as a favorite.
Under Payton, Denver is 10-9 ATS in games coming off a win.
AFC West teams are 5-5 ATS in divisional games.


Teams split their last six meetings.
Underdogs are 5-3 ATS in last eight series games.
Under is 3-1 in last four series games.


Browns @ Steelers (–5.5)
Browns (1-4)
Browns don’t have a bye week after playing in London LW.
NFL teams with no bye after overseas games are 9-8 ATS
Rookie QB Gabriel lost his first NFL start last week.
Flacco got traded Tuesday; unsure if Sanders/Zappe is QB2
Stefanski is 42-50 as a head coach.


Browns scored 16-17-13-10-17 points in their five games.
Cleveland is minus-4 in turnovers.
Browns are 5-11 ATS last 15 games coming off a loss.
Cleveland is 8-17-1 ATS last 25 games as a road underdog.
Browns are 4-15 ATS in last 19 AFC North road games.


Steelers (3-1)
Steelers scored 34-21-24 points in wins, 17 in their loss.
Road team won all four of their games.
Pittsburgh is +7 in turnovers this season.
QB Rodgers is 167-98-1 as an NFL QB
Tomlin is 194-119-2 as an NFL head coach.


Tomlin won a Super Bowl, but it was in 2008.
Rodgers won a Super Bowl, but it was in 2010.
Pittsburgh is 14-4 ATS last 18 AFC North home games.
Steelers allowed 369+ total yards in all four games.
Last 8 years, Pittsburgh is 8-0 SU/6-2 ATS coming off a bye.


Home team won nine of last ten series games.
Browns are 0-5 SU/ATS last five visits to Pittsburgh.
Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.


Chargers (–4.5) @ Dolphins
Chargers (3-2)
Chargers lost last two games to NFC teams, 21-18/27-10
Bolts have injury issues on their offensive line.
QB Herbert is 44-42 as an NFL starter.
Jim Harbaugh is 63-31-1 as an NFL head coach.


Under Harbaugh, Chargers are 5-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Chargers are 12-10-2 ATS last 24 games vs NFC teams.
Under Harbaugh, Chargers are 6-1 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Chargers have converted 23-53 third down plays.
AFC West teams are 6-8 ATS in non-divisional games.


Dolphins (1-4)
Miami has allowed 28.3 ppg in its 1-4 start.
Miami has had three games with 15 or fewer running plays.
Dolphins were minus-5 in turnovers/1st 3 games, +5 last 2 games.
QB Tagovailoa is 39-29 as an NFL starter.
McDaniel is 29-29 as a head coach.


Since 2020, Miami is 8-5 ATS as a home underdog.
Miami is 0-4 when it allows more than 21 points.
Miami is 9-6-1 ATS in last 16 games coming off a loss.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 7-8 ATS vs NFC teams.
AFC East teams are 4-6 ATS in non-divisional games.


Dolphins won six of last nine series games.
Chargers are 1-5 SU/ATS in last six visits to Miami.
Under is 6-3 in last nine meetings.


Patriots (–3.5) @ Saints
Patriots (3-2)
Patriots scored 33-42-23 points in wins, 13-14 in losses.
Patriots are 2-0 on road: 33-27 at Miami, 23-20 at Buffalo.
Letdown alert after their upset win at Buffalo last week.
QB Maye is 6-11 as an NFL starter.
Vrabel is 59-50 as an NFL head coach.


Patriots are 6-3-1 ATS last 10 games as a road favorite.
This is first time NE is road favorite since Week 13 of 2023
NE is 6-8-2 ATS in last 16 games coming off a win.
Opponents’ team total; under 4-1.
Patriots are 2-8-1 ATS last 11 games vs NFC teams.


Saints (1-4)
Saints won 26-14 LW, despite scoring one TD, trying six FG’s.
Saints were +5 in turnovers LW (even in first four games)
Saints allowed 30.3 ppg in their four losses
New Orleans has been outscored 99-49 in first half of games.
Saints are 7-13 ATS last 20 games as a home underdog.


Kellen Moore is 1-4 as a head coach.
Rattler is 1-10 as an NFL starting QB.
Saints are 10-16-2 ATS in last 28 games coming off a win.
Saints are 6-10 ATS games last 16 games vs AFC teams.
NFC South teams are 8-7 ATS in non-divisional games.


Teams split last four meetings.
This is Patriots’ first visit to Bourbon Street since 2017.
Over is 4-3 in last seven series games.


Rams (–7.5) @ Ravens
Rams (3-2)
Rams allowed 9-19-20 points in wins, 33-26 in losses.
Rams won 33-19 at Tennessee, lost 33-26 at Philly.
In LW’s loss, Rams didn’t score on last two red zone drives.
QB Stafford is 42-27 as the Rams’ starter (116-120-1 overall).
McVay is 91-59 as an NFL head coach.


Last two weeks, Rams threw ball for 360/378 yards.
Under McVay, Rams are 26-19-1 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Rams are 7-1 ATS in last eight games as a road favorite.
Rams are 9-3-1 ATS last 13 games vs AFC teams.
Over is 3-1 in their last four games.
NFC West non-divisional favorites are 6-4 ATS


Ravens (1-3)
Ravens lost their last three games (minus-6 in turnovers)
QB Jackson (hamstring) is questionable; check status.
Ravens gave up 41-38-37-44 points in their four losses.
Ravens are giving up 408.8 yards/game.
Baltimore is 8-3 ATS last 11 games coming off a loss.


QB Jackson is 74-32 as an NFL starter
Backup QB’s: Rush is 9-6, Huntley 5-10
John Harbaugh is 186-119 as an NFL head coach.
Since 2019, Baltimore is 6-2 ATS as a home underdog.
AFC North teams are 4-11 ATS in non-divisional games.


Ravens won five of last six series games.
Rams lost three of last four visits to Baltimore.
Over is 4-3 in last seven meetings.


Cardinals @ Colts (-6.5)
Cardinals (2-3)
Cardinals lost last three games by total of five points.
Last week’s loss was one of worst collapses in NFL history.
Last four games, Cardinals converted 21-55 third down plays.
Murray is 38-49-1 as an NFL starter.
Gannon is 14-25 in 2+ years as a head coach.


LW was first time Cardinals gained more than 293 yards.
Under Gannon, Arizona is 10-6 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Gannon, Arizona is 8-3 ATS vs AFC teams.
Arizona is 14-10 ATS in last 24 games coming off a loss.
NFC West teams are 7-5 ATS in non-divisional games.


Colts (4-1)
Colts are 3-0 at home, scoring 33-29-40 points.
Indy scored 29+ points in all four of its wins.
QB Jones is 29-46-1 is as an NFL starter.
Steichen is 21-18 SU in 2+ years as a head coach


Under Steichen, Indy is 7-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Steichen, Indy is 10-9 ATS in games coming off a win.
In three home games, Colts scored 11 TD’s on 26 drives.
Colts are +5 in turnovers this year.
AFC South teams are 9-5 ATS in non-divisional games.


Colts are 3-2 SU in last five meetings.
This is Cardinals’ first visit to Indy since 2017.
Four of last five series games stayed under the total.


Seahawks @ Jaguars (-1.5)
Seahawks (3-2)
Seahawks won three of last four games, scoring 33 ppg.
Seattle is 2-0 on road (31-17 Steelers/23-20 Arizona)
Darnold is 38-41 as an NFL starter.
Seahawks are his 4th team the last four years.
MacDonald is 13-9 as a head coach.


Seattle held last four foes to 76.5 rushing yards/game.
Seattle is 11-3 ATS in last 14 games as a road underdog.
Seattle is 9-7 ATS in last 16 games coming off a loss.
Opponents’ team total: under 4-1
Seahawks are 3-5-3 ATS last 11 games vs AFC teams.
NFC West teams are 7-5 ATS in non-divisional games.


Jaguars (4-1)
Jacksonville won last three games, by 7-5-3 points.
Jaguars allowed 300+ passing yards in 3 of last 4 games.
QB Lawrence is 27-40 as an NFL starter.
Liam Coen is 4-1 as an NFL head coach.


Jaguars have 14 takeaways, are already +8 in turnovers.
Jaguars are 6-4 ATS last 10 games as a home favorite.
Jaguars are 14-12 ATS last 26 games coming off a win.
Jaguars are 9-5-1 ATS last 15 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.


Home team won last six series games.
Seahawks lost 30-24/26-14 in last two visits to Jacksonville.
Five of last seven meetings went over the total.


Cowboys (–3.5) @ Panthers
Cowboys (2-2-1)
Last four weeks, Dallas allowed 439.5 yards/game.
Dallas scored 20-14 in its losses, 40-40-37 in win/tie/win.
Over is 3-1 in their last four games.
QB Prescott is 80-53-1 as an NFL starter.
Brian Schottenheimer is 2-2-1 as a head coach.


Since 2021, Cowboys are 12-6 ATS as a road favorite.
Cowboys are 23-19 ATS last 42 games coming off a win.
Dallas is minus-3 in turnovers this season.
Last two games, Dallas scored 10 TD’s on 21 drives.
NFC East teams are 8-6 ATS in non-divisional games.


Panthers (2-3)
Carolina is 2-0 at home (Atlanta 30-0/27-24 Miami)
Panthers allowed 24+ points in four of five games.
QB Young is 8-25 as an NFL starter.
Canales is 7-15 as a head coach.


Under Canales, Panthers are 6-3 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Canales, Carolina is 2-3 ATS in games coming off a win.
Carolina ran ball for 239 yards in LW’s 27-24 win over Miami.
Last three games, Panthers converted 18-50 third down plays.
NFC South teams are 8-7 ATS in non-divisional games.


Dallas won nine of last eleven series games.
Cowboys are 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS last seven visits to Charlotte.
Over is 3-0 in last three series games.


Titans @ Raiders (-3.5)
Titans (1-4)
Tennessee is 1-4 SU/ATS, losing by 8-14-21-26 points.
Titans won 22-21 in Arizona LW, after trailing 21-6 with 11:00 left.
Rookie QB Ward is 1-4 as an NFL starter.
Callahan is 4-18 as an NFL head coach.
Titans switched play callers in Week 4.


Titans have four TD’s, 13 FG’s on their 57 drives.
Titans were outgained by 184-187-83-168-33 yards in their games.
Last two years, Tennessee was 0-8 ATS coming off a win.
Titans are 4-12 ATS in last 16 games as an underdog.
AFC South teams are 9-5 ATS in non-divisional games.


Raiders (1-4)
Raiders lost last three games, giving up 20-41-25-40 points.
Raiders lost first two home games, 20-9/25-24.
Last two games, Raiders were minus-5 in turnovers.
QB Geno Smith is 41-48 as an NFL starter.
Carroll is 182-135-1 as an NFL head coach.


Opponents converted 20 of last 46 third down plays.
Las Vegas is favored for first time this season.
Last three years, Raiders are 10-4 ATS as a home favorite.
Las Vegas is 20-26-1 ATS in last 47 games coming off a loss.
AFC West teams are 6-8 ATS in divisional games.


Tennessee is 5-3 in last eight series games.
This is Titans’ first-ever visit to Las Vegas.
Favorites are 8-3 ATS in last 11 meetings.


49ers @ Buccaneers (-2.5)
49ers (4-1)
49ers’ five games were all decided by 5 or fewer points.
Last four games, SF ran ball for 77-73-83-74 yards.
Unclear whether Jones/Purdy will start at QB.
QB Purdy is 28-16 as an NFL starter; Jones is 23-30.
Shanahan is 82-67 as an NFL head coach


49ers gave up 378 passing yards in LW’s 26-23 road win.
Last two games, 49ers threw ball for 306/333 yards.
Since 2022, 49ers are 1-3 ATS as a road underdog.
49ers are 1-9 ATS in last 10 games coming off a win.
NFC West teams are 7-5 ATS in non-divisional games.


Buccaneers (4-1)
Tampa Bay’s five games were all decided by 6 or fewer points.
Buccaneers’ only loss was 31-25 at home to the Eagles.
Last three games, Tampa Bay gave up 27-31-35 points.
Mayfield is 56-57 as an NFL starter, 24-18 with the Bucs.
Bowles is 58-69 as a head coach, 32-28 with Tampa Bay.


Tampa Bay is 5-4-1 ATS last 10 games as a home favorite.
Bucs’ four wins are all by 3 or fewer points.
Bucs allowed 341 passing yards in LW’s 38-35 win at Seattle.
Bucs are 4-8 ATS in last 12 games coming off a win.
NFC South teams are 8-7 ATS in non-divisional games.


49ers are 4-0 SU/2-2 ATS in last four series games.
49ers won three of last four visits to Tampa.
Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.


Bengals @ Packers (-14.5)
Bengals (2-3)
Bengals lost last three games, by 38-25-13 points.
Bengals acquired QB Flacco Tuesday; he is starting.
Bengals have run ball for only 57 yards/game.
Flacco is 116-95 as an NFL starter.
Taylor is 53-57-1 as a head coach.


Cincinnati is minus-5 in turnovers this season.
Cincinnati converted nine of last 33 third down plays.
Bengals are 8-6-1 ATS last 15 games as road underdogs (0-2 TY).
Bengals are 22-15-1 ATS last 38 coming off a loss.
AFC North teams are 4-11 ATS in divisional games.


Packers (2-1-1)
Green Bay won their two home games, 27-13/27-18.
Packers held three of four opponents under 250 total yards.
Packers tied last game 40-40 in Dallas, after leading 13-0.
QB Love is 21-18-1 as an NFL starter
LaFleur is 72-39-1 as an NFL head coach.


Packers are 8-4-1 ATS last 13 games as a home favorite.
Packers are 3-5 SU/ATS last eight post-bye games.
Green Bay scored 27+ points in three of its four games.
Since 2021, Packers are 5-1 ATS as a double digit favorite.
NFC North teams are 7-5 ATS in divisional games.


Packers won last two meetings, 25-22/27-24
Underdogs are 4-0-1 ATS last five series games.
Over is 3-1 in last four meetings.


Lions @ Chiefs (-2.5)
Lions (4-1)
Lions won last four games, scoring 40.3 points/game.
Detroit is +7 in turnovers in its last four games.
Lions held four of five opponents under 90 yards rushing.
QB Goff is 89-58-1 as an NFL starter, 47-31-1 with Detroit.
Campbell is 51-38-1 as an NFL head coach.
.
Lions are 8-4 ATS last 12 games as a road underdog.
Detroit is 16-7 ATS in last 23 games vs AFC teams
Detroit is 25-11 ATS last 36 games coming off a win.
Detroit is 16-6 ATS last 22 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
NFC North teams are 7-5 ATS in non-divisional games.


Chiefs (2-3)
Short week for Chiefs after Monday’s loss in Jacksonville.
Last three games, Kansas City is +5 in turnovers.
Last two games, Chiefs threw ball for 264/318 yards.
QB Mahomes is 108-29 as an NFL starter.
Andy Reid is 303-166-1 as an NFL head coach


Chiefs are 17-22 ATS last 39 games as a home favorite.
Chiefs are 8-4 ATS last 12 games coming off a loss.
Chiefs are 14-8 ATS last 22 regular season games vs NFC teams.
Chiefs converted 18 of last 39 third down plays.
AFC West teams are 6-8 ATS in non-divisional games.


Teams split their last six meetings.
Lions won last meeting, 21-20 at Arrowhead, in 2023.
Over is 5-1 in last six series games.

 

[ozzy44]

These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Post-bye week system #7: Play Under the total with road teams coming off their bye week (Record: 40-18-1 since 2021, 68.9%, +20.2 units, 34.8% ROI, Grade 65)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CHI-WAS (o/u at 49.5)

* LA CHARGERS’ Justin Herbert is 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS with his team coming off a double-digit loss since 2021
Trends Match (PLAY): LA CHARGERS (-4.5 at MIA)

* TENNESSEE is 10-1 Under the total when coming off an upset win since 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TEN-LVR (o/u at 41.5)

* In Monday Night Football games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 27-30 SU but 16-39-2 ATS (29.1%) in the last 57.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+4.5 vs BUF)


* NY GIANTS are 26-6 Under the total as home underdogs since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-NYG (o/u at 40.5)

* Home teams have historically dominated the Browns-Steelers AFC North rivalry, going 20-7-1 SU and 19-8-1 ATS since 2012 (including seven straight SU and ATS wins)
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-5.5 vs CLE)

* In non-conference games, re-tread coaches have really struggled, going 43-60 ATS (41.6%) over the last decade, including 16-30 ATS (34.8%) over the last 3+ seasons.
System Match (FADE): NEW ENGLAND

#1 Underpriced underdog according to the Makinen Bettors Ratings: NY JETS +7.5 vs Denver (projections have line at NYJ +2.9)

These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:

(105) PHILADELPHIA (4-1) at (106) NY GIANTS (1-4)
* NY GIANTS are 15-26 SU but 24-15 ATS when playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2011
* NY GIANTS’ Brian Daboll boasts a decent 13-20 SU and 19-15 ATS record when coming off an outright loss since 2022
* PHILADELPHIA’s Nick Sirianni is 13-3 SU but 4-11 ATS vs. poor teams being outscored by 4.5 PPG or more since 2022
* PHILADELPHIA is 14-27 ATS (34.1%) when coming off a SU loss since 2018
Trends Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-7 at NYG)


* NY GIANTS are 59-29 Under the total (67%) since 2020
* NY GIANTS are 26-6 Under the total as home underdogs since 2020
* NY GIANTS’ Brian Daboll is on 23-9 Under the total surge as a single-digit underdog
* PHILADELPHIA’s Nick Sirianni is 11-2 Under the total in the last 13 games when coming off an outright loss
* PHILADELPHIA’s Jalen Hurts is 20-10 Under the total in his last 30 road games
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-NYG (o/u at 40.5)

(251) DENVER (3-2) vs (252) NY JETS (0-5)
* NY JETS are on an 8-23 SU and 7-23 ATS skid when coming off an upset loss since 2011
* NY JETS are 22-46 ATS (32.4%) in road/neutral games since 2017
* NY JETS’ Justin Fields is 11-29 SU and 15-23-2 ATS (40.5%) in Sunday games. The average line was +3.1, Team average PF: 19.7
Trends Match (FADE): NY JETS (+7.5 vs DEN)

* DENVER is 25-35 ATS (41.7%) as a favorite since 2017
Trend Match (FADE): DENVER (-7.5 vs NYJ)

* DENVER is 102-68 Under the total (60%) since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-NYJ (o/u at 43.5)


(253) CLEVELAND (1-4) at (254) PITTSBURGH (3-1)
* CLEVELAND is 22-40 ATS (35.5%) vs. divisional opponents since 2015
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+5.5 at PIT)

* PITTSBURGH is 31-18 SU but 14-33 ATS vs. poor offenses scoring <19 PPG since 2011
* PITTSBURGH’s Aaron Rodgers is on an 8-1 SU and ATS run as a divisional home favorite
* PITTSBURGH is 24-32 ATS (42.9%) as a favorite since 2018
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADES of PITTSBURGH (-5.5 vs CLE)

* CLEVELAND’s Kevin Stefanski is 22-13 Over the total vs. teams with a winning record since 2020
* PITTSBURGH is 103-72 Under the total (58.9%) since 2015
* PITTSBURGH is 35-12 Under the total vs. poor teams with point differentials <=-4.5 PPG since 2013
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 2 PLAYS UNDER in CLE-PIT (o/u at 37.5)

(255) ARIZONA (2-3) at (256) INDIANAPOLIS (4-1)
* ARIZONA’s Kyler Murray is 6-3 SU and 9-0 ATS in the last nine games as a road underdog to the AFC
* ARIZONA is 32-22 ATS (59.3%) in road/neutral games since 2019
* ARIZONA is 31-19 ATS (62%) as an underdog since 2021
Trends Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+7 at IND)


* INDIANAPOLIS is 25-19 ATS (56.8%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (-7 vs ARI)

* ARIZONA’s Jonathan Gannon is on 6-3 Over the total streak vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7%
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ARI-IND (o/u at 46.5)

(257) LA RAMS (3-2) at (258) BALTIMORE (1-4)
* LA RAMS’ Sean McVay is 8-6 SU but 4-9 ATS when his team plays with extra rest since 2022
* LA RAMS are 26-15 ATS (63.4%) when coming off a SU loss since 2019
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of LA RAMS (-7.5 at BAL)

* LA RAMS are 53-43 Under the total (55.2%) since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAR-BAL (o/u at 44.5)

* BALTIMORE is 13-15 SU but 21-7 ATS as an underdog since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+7.5 vs LAR)

(259) SEATTLE (3-2) at (260) JACKSONVILLE (4-1)
* SEATTLE is 22-9 Over the total vs. teams with a better record since 2011
* SEATTLE’s Sam Darnold is 27-13 Under the total when his team plays with normal rest (seven days) since 2019
* JACKSONVILLE is 41-33 Under the total (55.4%) since 2021
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 2 PLAYS UNDER in SEA-JAX (o/u at 47.5)


* SEATTLE is 36-25 ATS (59%) when coming off a SU loss since 2015
* SEATTLE is 23-16-1 ATS (59%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
* SEATTLE is 38-28 ATS (57.6%) as an underdog since 2016
* SEATTLE’s Sam Darnold is 8-17 SU and ATS (32%) as a road underdog. The average line was +7.2, Team average PF: 17.1
Trends Match: 3 PLAYS, 1 FADE of SEATTLE (+1.5 at JAX)

* JACKSONVILLE is 21-28 ATS (42.9%) as a favorite since 2018
* JACKSONVILLE’s Trevor Lawrence is 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS with his team coming off an upset win since 2022
* JACKSONVILLE is 10-49 SU and 16-42 ATS versus NFC foes since 201
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADES of JACKSONVILLE (-1.5 vs SEA)

(261) DALLAS (2-2) at (262) CAROLINA (2-3)
* DALLAS is 27-9 SU and 24-12 ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2020
* DALLAS is 30-23 ATS (56.6%) in non-divisional conference games since 2019
* DALLAS is 23-15 ATS (60.5%) in road/neutral games since 2021
* CAROLINA is 20-29 ATS (40.8%) at home since 2019
* CAROLINA is 21-33 ATS (38.9%) in non-divisional conference games since 2018
Trends Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-3 at CAR)


(263) LA CHARGERS (3-2) at (264) MIAMI (1-4)
* LA CHARGERS are on 27-10 Under the total surge in Sunday games
* LA CHARGERS are on 16-3 Under the total streak when playing on normal rest (7 days)
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-MIA (o/u at 44.5)

* LA CHARGERS’ Jim Harbaugh owns a solid 32-11 SU and 29-12 ATS NFL mark as a favorite of -3 to -7 points since 2011
* LA CHARGERS’ Justin Herbert is 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS with his team coming off a double-digit loss since 2021
Trends Match (PLAY): LA CHARGERS (-4.5 at MIA)

* MIAMI is 61-32 ATS (65.6%) at home since 2014
* MIAMI’s Mike McDaniel is on a 2-13 SU and 3-12 ATS skid as a single-digit underdog
* MIAMI’s Tua Tagovalioa is 26-9 SU and 23-12 ATS (65.7%) in home games. The average line was -3.7, Team average PF: 25.1
* MIAMI’s Tua Tagovailoa is 1-11 SU and 3-9 ATS in his last 12 starts versus teams with winning records
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 2 FADES of MIAMI (+4.5 vs LAC)


(265) SAN FRANCISCO (4-1) at (266) TAMPA BAY (4-1)
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is 25-16 Under the total as a single-digit underdog since 2017
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-TB (o/u at 47.5)

* TAMPA BAY’s Baker Mayfield is 15-9 SU but 7-17 ATS as a home favorite since 2020
* TAMPA BAY is 38-53 ATS (41.8%) at home since 2014
Trends Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-3 vs SF)

(267) TENNESSEE (1-4) at (268) LAS VEGAS (1-4)
* TENNESSEE is on an 8-32 SU and 9-30-1 ATS skid in Sunday games
* TENNESSEE is 34-49-1 ATS (41%) in non-divisional conference games since 2014
Trends Match (FADE): TENNESSEE (+4.5 at LVR)

* TENNESSEE is 10-1 Under the total when coming off an upset win since 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TEN-LVR (o/u at 41.5)

* LAS VEGAS is 10-18 SU and 7-21 ATS vs. poor teams with point differentials of <=-4.5 PPG since 2018
* LAS VEGAS’ Geno Smith is 7-11 SU but 10-8 ATS with his team coming off a double-digit loss since 2013
* LAS VEGAS is 35-51 ATS (40.7%) when coming off a SU loss since 2015
* LAS VEGAS is 16-21 ATS (43.2%) as a favorite since 2019
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 3 FADES of LAS VEGAS (-4.5 vs TEN)


(269) NEW ENGLAND (3-2) at (270) NEW ORLEANS (1-4)
* NEW ORLEANS is 25-44 ATS (36.2%) at home since 2017
Trend Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (+3.5 vs NE)

(271) CINCINNATI (2-3) at (272) GREEN BAY (2-1)
* CINCINNATI is 57-66 SU but 73-47 ATS on the road dating back to 2011
* CINCINNATI is 73-57 SU and 79-51 ATS when playing on normal rest (seven days) since 2012
* CINCINNATI is 25-18 ATS (58.1%) as an underdog since 2020
Trends Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+14 at GB)

* GREEN BAY is 93-20 SU and 72-39 ATS as a home favorite since 2009
Trend Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-14 vs CIN)

(273) DETROIT (4-1) at (274) KANSAS CITY (2-3)
* DETROIT is 19-5 SU and ATS when coming off a double-digit win since 2018
* DETROIT’s Jared Goff is 11-11 SU and 18-4 ATS as a single-digit underdog since 2021
Trends Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+2.5 at KC)

* KANSAS CITY is 18-9 ATS (66.7%) as an underdog since 2016
* KANSAS CITY’s Andy Reid is on a 16-4 SU and 13-6 ATS surge in non-conference games
* KANSAS CITY’s Patrick Mahomes boasts a 30-11 SU and 25-14 ATS record vs. teams with elite point differentials of >=+4.5 since 2019
Trends Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-2.5 vs DET)


* KANSAS CITY is 74-40 Under the total as a home favorite since 2010
* KANSAS CITY’s Andy Reid is on a 9-4 Under the total streak vs. elite offenses scoring >=27 PPG
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-KC (o/u at 52.5)

(275) BUFFALO (4-1) at (276) ATLANTA (2-2)
* BUFFALO is 31-24 ATS (56.4%) in road/neutral games since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-4.5 at ATL)

* ATLANTA’s Raheem Morris is on a 13-17 SU and 11-19 ATS slide in home games
* ATLANTA is 21-37 ATS (36.2%) at home since 2018
* ATLANTA is 15-34 ATS (30.6%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
Trends Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+4.5 vs BUF)

* BUFFALO’s Sean McDermott is 27-14 Under the total when coming off an outright loss since 2017
* BUFFALO’s Josh Allen is 35-21 Under the total on the road since 2018
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): BUF-ATL (o/u at 49.5)

(277) CHICAGO (2-2) at (278) WASHINGTON (3-2)
* CHICAGO is 17-4 Under the total when coming off an upset win since 2017
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHI-WAS (o/u at 49.5)


* CHICAGO is 32-43 ATS (42.7%) in non-divisional conference games since 2015
* CHICAGO is 29-47 ATS (38.2%) in road/neutral games since 2016
* CHICAGO is 30-44-1 ATS (40.5%) as an underdog since 2019
* WASHINGTON is 26-15-1 ATS (63.4%) when coming off a SU win since 2019
* WASHINGTON is 14-12 SU and 19-6 ATS when coming off an upset win since 2018
Trends Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-4.5 vs CHI)
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

· Home favorites of less than a TD on SNF have gone the complete opposite direction, showing a record of 24-15 SU and 17-22 ATS (43.6%) in their last 39 after going 40-18-2 ATS prior.
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-2.5 vs DET)


· In SNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are just 27-25 SU and 20-30-2 ATS (40%) in the last 51. Under the total is also 31-13 (70.5%) in the last 44.
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-2.5 vs DET)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-KC (o/u at 52.5)

· SNF teams coming off of losses have proven not ready for the big time, as they have gone just 12-26 SU and 13-25 ATS (34.2%) in their last 38 tries against teams off a win.
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-2.5 vs DET)

· Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 14-22-1 SU and 15-21-1 ATS (41.7%) in their last 37, but those coming off a win are on a current 28-10 SU and 22-16 ATS (57.9%) surge.
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-2.5 vs DET)

· Strangely, the league’s highest scoring teams have not fared well on SNF of late, as those scoring 30+ PPG are 14-10 SU but 6-18 ATS (25%) in their last 24 tries against teams not scoring that much.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (+2.5 at KC)


Bad SNF Team Trend
Detroit 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS in the last 10
Trend Match (FADE): DETROIT (+2.5 at KC)

Over the Total SNF Team Trend
Kansas City 15-9 Over since 2016, combined avg. 51.5 PPG
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DET-KC (o/u at 52.5)

Under the Total SNF Team Trend
Detroit 8-1-1 Under in the last 10
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-KC (o/u at 52.5)

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

· NFL home underdogs on Monday Night are on a run of 15-19 SU and 18-15-1 ATS (54.5%) dating back to September 2021. The last 32 of these games have seen UNDER the total go 22-8-2 (73.3%) as well, games producing just 39.8 PPG.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): ATLANTA (+4.5 vs BUF)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BUF-ATL (o/u at 49.5)

· In MNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 27-30 SU but 16-39-2 ATS (29.1%) in the last 57.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+4.5 vs BUF)

·In non-divisional conference matchups on MNF, hosts are on a 22-20 SU and 26-16 ATS (61.9%) surge since 2019.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-4.5 vs CHI)


· Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 44-37 SU but just 31-48-2 ATS (39.2%) in the last 81 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BUFFALO (-4.5 at ATL), WASHINGTON (-4.5 vs CHI)

Under the Total MNF Team Trend
Chicago 10-4-1 Under in the last 15
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHI-WAS (o/u at 49.5)

If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:

Good PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trend
Buffalo 19-8 SU and 15-12 ATS primetime run
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-4.5 at ATL)

Bad PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Chicago 4-14 SU and 6-12 ATS in the last 18
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+4.5 at WAS)

NY Giants 4-25 SU since last back-to-back wins (12-17 ATS)
Trend Match (FADE): NY GIANTS (+7 vs PHI)

Washington 14-23 and 13-23-1 ATS in primetime since 2013
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-4.5 vs CHI)


Under the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trend
Atlanta 15-2 to the Under in the last 17
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BUF-ATL (o/u at 49.5)

Pre-Bye Week Systems and Trends​

The following systems and trends are from the long-running article series detailing pre-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason.

Pre-bye week system #5
Play on home underdogs heading into their bye week. (Record: 35-22-3 ATS since ’15, 61.4%, +10.8 units, 18.9% ROI, Grade 62)
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+7.5 vs LAR)


Pre-bye week system #6
Play on any road team heading into their bye week on Monday Night. (Record: 26-18 SU and 29-13-2 ATS since ’96, 69%, +14.7 units, 35% ROI, Grade 67)
System Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-4.5 at ATL)

Pre-bye week system #8
Play on any team heading into their bye week when favored on the road/neutral vs. a non-conference foe (Record: 29-7-1 SU and 25-11-1 ATS since 2009, 69.4%, +12.9 units, 35.8% ROI, Grade 67)
System Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-4.5 at ATL)

Pre-bye week system #9
Play against any teams heading into their bye week and playing as underdogs of more than 7 points (Record: 42-7 SU and 34-14-1 ATS since ’08, 70.8%, +18.6 units, 38.8% ROI, Grade 70)
System Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+7.5 vs LAR)

* Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs.

Baltimore Ravens Pre-Bye Week Game – 10/12 vs. Los Angeles Rams
· Baltimore is just 5-6 SU and 3-8 ATS in its last 11 pre-bye week home games
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+7.5 vs LAR)
· The Ravens are on an 8-4 Under the total run in pre-bye week games
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAR-BAL (o/u at 44.5)


Buffalo Bills Pre-Bye Week Game – Mon 10/13 at Atlanta Falcons
· Buffalo is on a run of 14-4 Over the total in pre-bye week games
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BUF-ATL (o/u at 49.5)

· The Bills have lost eight straight pre-bye week games vs. NFC foes while going 2-5-1 ATS. They have also gone Over the total in six straight games while allowing 32.2 PPG in that scenario
Trend Match (FADE): BUFFALO (-4.5 at ATL)
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BUF-ATL (o/u at 49.5)

Post Bye-Week NFL Betting Trends and Systems​

The following NFL betting trends and systems are from the long-running article series detailing pre- and post-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason

Post-bye week system #2:
Play against home teams coming out of their bye week against non-conference opponents. (Record: 25-21 SU and 29-15-2 ATS since 2015, 65.9%, +12.5 units, 28.4% ROI, Grade 66)
System Matches (FADE ALL): GREEN BAY (-14 vs CIN), ATLANTA (+4.5 vs BUF)

Post-bye week system #3:
Play against home underdogs coming out of their bye week. (Record: 45-18 SU and 36-25-2 ATS since ’99, 59%, +8.5 units, 13.9% ROI, Grade 59)
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+4.5 vs BUF)


Post-bye week system #4:
Play Over the total in games involving posted totals of less than 40 with teams coming out of their bye week. (Record: 28-18-2 since 2010, 60.1%, +8.2 units, 17.8% ROI, Grade 60)
System Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-PIT (o/u at 37.5)

Post-bye week system #5:
Play against double-digit favorites coming off their bye week. (Record: 18-8-1 ATS since 2014, 69.2%, +9.2 units, 35.4% ROI, Grade 62)
System Match (FADE): GREEN BAY (-14 vs CIN)

Post-bye week system #6:
Play against road teams coming off their bye week and facing a non-divisional conference opponent. (Record: 24-13 SU and 26-11 ATS since 2019, 70.3%, +13.9 units, 37.6% ROI, Grade 65)
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+4.5 at WAS)

Post-bye week system #7:
Play Under the total with road teams coming off their bye week (Record: 40-18-1 since 2021, 68.9%, +20.2 units, 34.8% ROI, Grade 65)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CHI-WAS (o/u at 49.5)

Post-bye week system #10:
Play Under the total in games where a team is coming out of its bye week after yielding 35+ points before the bye. (Record: 23-11-1 Under since 2014, 67.6%, +10.9 units, 32.1% ROI, Grade 62)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-GB (o/u at 44.5)


** Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs.

Atlanta Falcons Post-Bye Week Game: MON 10/13 vs. Buffalo Bills
· Atlanta is on a 15-6 SU and 14-7 ATS run in its last 21 post-bye week games but did lose last year
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+4.5 vs BUF)

· The Falcons are 12-4-1 Under the total in their last 17 post-bye week home games
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BUF-ATL (o/u at 49.5)

Chicago Bears Post-Bye Week Game: MON 10/13 at Washington Commanders
· Chicago is 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS in its last 11 post-bye week games, including a loss to Washington on a game-ending Hail Mary pass last year
· The Bears haven’t won a post-bye week road game since 2013, going 0-5 SU and ATS since
Trends Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+4.5 at WAS)

Green Bay Packers Post-Bye Week Game: 10/12 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
· Green Bay is 15-4 Under the total in the last 19 post-bye week games
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-GB (o/u at 44.5)


· The Packers are on a 14-1 SU and 10-4-1 ATS post-bye week run when favored by 3 points or more
Trend Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-14 vs CIN)

Pittsburgh Steelers Post-Bye Week Game: 10/12 vs. Cleveland Browns
· The Steelers are on an eight-game post-bye week game-winning streak, as well as a 5-game ATS winning streak in such games
· Pittsburgh is 11-2 SU and 7-6 ATS in its last 13 post-bye week games when favored
Trends Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-5.5 vs CLE)

 

[ozzy44]

NFL Week 6 – 80% Club Blue Star Trends Report​

Head-to-Head System Trends​

New England Patriots (Vrabel era note)​

• Road favorite in October: 11-4 ATS | 15-0 SU | 5-10 O/U
  Built under Belichick, but Vrabel’s road DNA fits: disciplined, situational, business trip.

Miami Dolphins​

• Underdog vs Los Angeles (Rams/Chargers): 9-4 ATS | 8-5 SU | 2-11 O/U
  When Miami’s catching points vs LA teams, totals tend to sink—Under machine.

Green Bay Packers​

• Home, spread -4 to -7.5: 26-11-3 ATS | 32-7-1 SU
• Home favorite, total 44.5–47: 23-15-2 ATS | 32-7-1 SU
  Lambeau sweet spot—market keeps shading mid-range chalk.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Detroit​

• Any venue: 7-4 ATS | 9-2 O/U
  When these two collide, fireworks. Scoreboard operator gets cardio.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland​

• Home vs Browns: 17-9-1 ATS | 24-3 SU | 14-12-1 O/U
• Home favorite vs AFC North: 13-11-1 ATS | 20-5 SU | 11-13-1 O/U

Dallas Cowboys vs NFC South​

• As favorite: 11-8-1 ATS | 16-4 SU | 7-13 O/U

Baltimore Ravens vs NFC West​

• Home vs NFC West: 12-9-2 ATS | 19-4 SU | 9-14 O/U

Chiefs/Lions Cross Note​

• Detroit vs Kansas City (any venue): 4-7 ATS | 4-7 SU | 9-2 O/U

Team System Trends​

Indianapolis Colts​

• Home favorite, total 47.5–51, before conference game (off AFC opponent): 11-2 ATS | 12-1 SU | 6-7 O/U

Dallas Cowboys​

• Road, total 47.5–51, scored 35+ last game: 9-2 ATS | 10-1 SU | 6-5 O/U
• Road favorite before division game (off 14–17 pt win): 4-8 ATS | 5-7 SU | 2-10 O/U
• Road, non-division, after non-conference, allowed 22–28 against last game: 4-8-1 ATS | 4-9 SU | 10-2-1 O/U

Philadelphia Eagles​

• Road favorite vs division (off an Under): 8-3 ATS | 9-2 SU | 5-6 O/U
• -7.0 to -9.5 favorite, total 37–41, allowed ≥21 last game: 4-8 ATS | 10-1-1 SU | 7-5 O/U

Green Bay Packers​

• Home favorite vs non-division, opp win% 31–40%: 22-10-1 ATS | 30-3 SU | 17-16 O/U
• Home after a conference game (last 5 yrs): 19-9 ATS | 23-5 SU | 11-16-1 O/U
• Week 4–8, opp win% 31–40%: 11-7-1 ATS | 16-3 SU | 10-9 O/U
• -10 or more favorite, before non-division, off NFC foe: 11-18-1 ATS | 25-5 SU | 16-14 O/U
• -10 or more favorite, vs non-conference, before non-division, off NFC foe: 3-8-1 ATS | 10-2 SU | 6-6 O/U

Pittsburgh Steelers​

• -3.5 to -6.5 home favorite in October, allowed ≤21 last game: 13-2 ATS | 15-0 SU | 7-8 O/U
• Home favorite after non-conference, off back-to-back SU wins: 12-7 ATS | 15-3-1 SU | 5-14 O/U

Washington Commanders​

• Home in October, before division game, scored 27+ last game: 9-5-1 ATS | 10-5 SU | 12-3 O/U
• -3.5 to -6.5 home favorite after non-division, scored 27+ last game: 10-6 ATS | 13-3 SU | 6-10 O/U
• Home favorite after non-division, off 1 Under & 1 ATS win: 5-6 ATS | 6-5 SU | 2-9 O/U

Las Vegas Raiders​

• -3.5 to -6.5 favorite, 6 days off, off 1 ATS loss: 8-7 ATS | 11-4 SU | 3-12 O/U

New England Patriots​

• Road favorite, 6 days off, before conference game, scored 21+ last game: 9-8 ATS | 14-3 SU | 6-11 O/U

New York Jets​

• +7 to +9.5 dog, 6 days off, scored 22–28 last game: 6-7-1 ATS | 4-10 SU | 2-12 O/U

Los Angeles Rams​

• Road favorite, total 44.5–47, scored ≤24 last game: 9-2 ATS | 9-2 SU | 5-6 O/U
• Road favorite after a conference game (last 5 yrs): 5-6 ATS | 9-2 SU | 4-7 O/U

Baltimore Ravens​

• Home underdog vs non-division, before non-division, off back-to-back SU losses: 6-9 ATS | 5-10 SU | 12-3 O/U

Kansas City Chiefs​

• Home favorite, before a conference game (last 5 yrs): 10-8 ATS | 16-2 SU | 7-11 O/U
• Home favorite, total 51.5–54 (last 5 yrs): 3-8 ATS | 10-1 SU | 3-8 O/U

Random System Trends​

New England Patriots​

• Road favorite in October, before conference game: 10-2 ATS | 11-1 SU | 7-5 O/U

Pittsburgh Steelers​

• -3.5 to -6.5 home favorite in October, Week 4–8: 16-5 ATS | 19-2 SU | 9-12 O/U
• -3.5 to -6.5 home favorite, Week 4–8, before conference game: 7-5 ATS | 10-2 SU | 5-7 O/U

Green Bay Packers​

• Home favorite vs non-division, opp win% 31–40%: 22-10-1 ATS | 30-3 SU | 17-16 O/U

Las Vegas Raiders​

• Home favorite vs non-division, Week 4–8: 23-12-1 ATS | 29-7 SU | 22-14 O/U
• Home favorite, Week 4–8 vs conference opponent: 9-5-1 ATS | 12-3 SU | 11-4 O/U
• -3.5 to -6.5 home favorite, 6 days off, October: 5-7 ATS | 10-2 SU | 5-7 O/U

Dallas Cowboys​

• Road favorite vs non-division, October: 16-9 ATS | 20-5 SU | 16-9 O/U

Kansas City Chiefs​

• Home favorite, last 5 yrs, after a conference game: 20-10 ATS | 28-2 SU | 12-18 O/U
• Home vs NFC North, before a division game: 9-5-1 ATS | 12-3 SU | 9-6 O/U
• Home favorite, last 3 yrs, after a conference game: 12-7 ATS | 17-2 SU | 7-12 O/U
• Home, last 4 yrs, before a conference game: 9-7 ATS | 13-3 SU | 7-9 O/U
• Home favorite, 5 days off, before a division game: 6-11-1 ATS | 15-3 SU | 9-9 O/U

Detroit Lions​

• Road vs non-division (last 2 yrs): 12-2 ATS | 11-3 SU | 9-5 O/U
• Road dog after non-conference, October: 10-6 ATS | 4-12 SU | 2-14 O/U

Indianapolis Colts​

• Home favorite in October vs non-conference: 8-6-1 ATS | 10-5 SU | 12-3 O/U

Washington Commanders​

• Home favorite, before conference, Week 4–8: 15-12-1 ATS | 26-2 SU | 15-13 O/U
• -3.5 to -6.5 favorite vs non-division, after non-conference: 11-9 ATS | 16-4 SU | 9-11 O/U
• Home favorite in October, before division game: 14-12-1 ATS | 22-5 SU | 18-9 O/U
• Home favorite, Week 4–8 vs conference: 10-10 ATS | 18-2 SU | 14-6 O/U
• -3.5 to -6.5 home favorite vs non-division, before division: 12-13 ATS | 20-5 SU | 11-14 O/U

Los Angeles Rams​

• Road favorite vs non-division (last 4 yrs): 7-6 ATS | 11-2 SU | 8-5 O/U

New York Giants​

• Home, last 5 yrs, Week 4–8: 7-5-1 ATS | 6-7 SU | 1-12 O/U
• Home dog, last 5 yrs, before non-conference: 6-5-1 ATS | 4-7 SU | 1-11 O/U
• Home dog, last 5 yrs, before non-division: 13-11-1 ATS | 10-14 SU | 5-20 O/U
• Home dog, Week 4–8, before non-division: 7-11-2 ATS | 7-13 SU | 3-16-1 O/U

Philadelphia Eagles​

• -7.0 to -9.5 favorite, October, Week 4–8: 5-8 ATS | 11-2 SU | 4-9 O/U

Smart Stats System Trends​

Pittsburgh Steelers​

• Home favorite, ≥1 Over, won last game by 3+, SU 3-2 in L5: 14-8 ATS | 19-3 SU | 11-11 O/U

Green Bay Packers​

• Home favorite with SU record 2–3 in L5: 21-18-2 ATS | 33-7-1 SU | 22-18-1 O/U

Raymond Report Takeaway​

Highest-signal angles this week:

• PIT (−3.5 to −6.5 home in October, ≤21 allowed last game): 13-2 ATS | 15-0 SU
• DAL after 35+ points (road, 47.5–51 total): 9-2 ATS | 10-1 SU
• DET road (non-division, last 2 yrs): 12-2 ATS | 11-3 SU
• WSH home in October after 27+ points: 12-3 O/U
• GB mid-range home chalk vs sub-40% teams: 22-10-1 ATS | 30-3 SU

 

[ozzy44]

 

[ozzy44]

2025 WESTGATE LAS VEGAS NFL SUPERCONTEST

SUPERCONTEST LEADERS STANDINGS & SELECTIONS
SUPERCONTEST WEEK 6: 10/07/25 – 10/13/25
SUPERCONTEST WEEK 6 LINES/ODDS	BY # OF TEAMS
Eagles	-7	vs.	NY GIANTS	SEA 270	CHI 115
Broncos	-7	vs.	NY Jets	PIT 217	LAC 111
STEELERS	-5.5	vs.	Browns	DET 194	BAL 103
COLTS	-7	vs.	Cardinals	KC 182	ARI 96
Rams	-7.5	vs.	RAVENS	TB 181	JAX 96
JAGUARS	-1	vs.	Seahawks	DAL 168	SF 95
Cowboys	-3	vs.	PANTHERS	WAS 166	CLE 82
Chargers	-4	vs.	DOLPHINS	IND 165	LAR 81
BUCCANEERS	-3	vs.	49ers	ATL 158	CIN 75
RAIDERS	-4.5	vs.	Titans	NO 139	NYJ 75
Patriots	-3.5	vs.	SAINTS	NE 137	GB 70
PACKERS	-14	vs.	Bengals	LV 128	TEN 67
CHIEFS	-2.5	vs.	LIONS	BUF 127	PHI 38
Bills	-4.5	vs.	FALCONS	DEN 127	NYG 22
COMMANDERS	-4.5	vs.	Bears	MIA 124	HOU 0
				CAR 121	MIN 0
CAPS -> HOME				TOP 5 LW: 3-2	YTD: 14-17-1
TEAM	W	L	T	LW	PTS
SEANSDOLPHINS1	19	6	0		19.00
WK 6 PKS	SEA	CAR	DET	BUF	CHI
$JAR3	19	6	0		19.00
WK 6 PKS	DEN	LAR	LV	KC	WAS
SEANSDOLPHINS5	19	6	0		19.00
WK 6 PKS	SEA	LAC	NE	GB	BUF
FARELLA	19	6	0		19.00
WK 6 PKS	PHI	DAL	LAC	NE	WAS
PERSIAN PRINCESS	19	6	0		19.00
WK 6 PKS	PIT	ARI	SEA	MIA	ATL
BIFFS ALMANAC	18	7	0		18.00
WK 6 PKS	CLE	ARI	LV	KC	WAS
TOROK9R	18	7	0		18.00
WK 6 PKS	MIA	TB	LV	GB	KC
91ACES	18	7	0		18.00
WK 6 PKS	SEA	TB	DET	ATL	CHI
8 TEAMS AT 17.00

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday, October 12​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
CLE at PIT	01:00 PM	CLE +6.5***** U 38.0	+500 +500
NE at NO	01:00 PM	NE -3.5 O 46.0*****	+500 +500
LAC at MIA	01:00 PM	MIA +3.5 U 45.5	+500 +500
DAL at CAR	01:00 PM	CAR +3.0 O 46.5*****	+500 +500
ARI at IND	01:00 PM	ARI +9.5***** U 46.5	+500 +500
SEA at JAC	01:00 PM	SEA -1.0 U 47.5*****	+500 +500
LA at BAL	01:00 PM	BAL +6.5 O 43.5	+500 +500
TEN at LV	04:05 PM	TEN +3.5 U 41.5	+500 +500
CIN at GB	04:25 PM	CIN +14.0 U 45.0*****	+500 +500
SF at TB	04:25 PM	SF +3.5***** O 46.5*****	+500 +500
DET at KC	08:20 PM	KC -2.5 O 52.0*****	+500 +500

***** BEST BETS

 

[CNOTES]

CNOTES NFL BEST BETS FOR OCTOBER !

10/12/2025......................6 - 7 - 0.........................46.15%....................- 8.50
10/09/2025...............,......0 - 2 - 0.........................00.00%....................- 11.00
10/06/2025......................0 - 2 - 0.........................00.00%....................- 11.00
10/05/2025......................9 - 3 - 0.........................75.00%....................+ 28.50
10/02/2025......................1 - 1 - 0.........................50.00%....................- 0.50

TOTALS........................16 - 15 -- 0.........................51.61%................... - 2.50

 

[CNOTES]

Monday’s 6-pack:
Week 7 NFL spreads
— Steelers (-4.5) @ Cincinnati
— Raiders @ Kansas City (-10.5)
— Dolphins @ Cleveland (-1.5)
— Patriots (-6.5) @ Tennessee
— Saints @ Chicago (-6)
— Eagles (-2.5) @ Minnesota

Quote of the Day
“It’s not who you play, it’s when you play them.”
Hall of Fame NFL coach Bud Grant

Monday’s quiz
Who was the football coach at Penn State before James Franklin?
(Hint: He is still a head coach)

Sunday’s quiz
When Jets won their only Super Bowl, they beat the Baltimore Colts, 16-7.

Saturday’s quiz
2008-09 Phillies were the last defending World Series champ that got back to the World Series the next year.

********************************************

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Sunday…….​

Happy Thanksgiving Day to all our Canadian friends………

Chiefs 30, Lions 17
Chiefs led 13-10 at halftime.
Chiefs in second half: 33 plays, 212 yards, 17 points.
Chiefs are 8-4 ATS last 12 games coming off a loss.
Chiefs are 14-8 ATS last 22 regular season games vs NFC teams.
Lions scored 40.3 points/game in their wins, 13-17 in losses.
Detroit in second half: 22 plays, 112 yards, 7 points.
Chiefs outgained Detroit, 355-297.
Kansas City didn’t have a penalty the whole game.

Buccaneers 30, 49ers 19
Mayfield passed for 256 yards, two TD’s.
Bucs’ first four drives: 14 plays, 44 yards, 7 points.
Bucs rest of game: 37 plays, 290 yards, 23 points.
Only 8 of Tampa Bay’s 50 plays were on 3rd down.
Buccaneers led 20-16 at halftime.
49ers in second half: 29 plays, 97 yards, 3 points, 2 turnovers.
Last five games, SF ran ball for 77-73-83-74-67 yards.
49ers lost star LB Warner for the season (ankle).

Panthers 30, Cowboys 27
Rico Dowdle had 34 touches for 239 yards and a TD.
Carolina is 3-0 at home, 0-3 on the road.
Carolina ran ball for 239/216 yards in last two games.
Panthers allowed 24+ points in five of six games.
Carolina outgained the Cowboys, 410-292.
Dallas allowed 30+ points in four of last five points.
Last four weeks, Dallas allowed 433.6 yards/game.
Cowboys ran the ball 19 times for only 31 yards.

Chargers 29, Dolphins 27
Chargers drove 44 yards, kicked game-winning FG with 0:05 left.
Dolphins had taken 27-26 lead on a TD with 0:46 left.
Miami led 13-9 at halftime.
Chargers in 2nd half: 39 plays, 230 yards, 20 points.
Miami has allowed 29 ppg in its 1-5 start.
Tagovailoa threw for 205 yards, but three INTs.
Miami is 0-5 when it allows more than 21 points.
RB Achane ran ball for 128 yards, two TD’s.

Rams 17, Ravens 3
Rams’ first two drive of 3rd quarter: 11 plays, 97 yards, 14 points.
Rams allowed 9-19-20-3 points in wins, 33-26 in losses.
Rams are 8-1 ATS in last nine games as a road favorite.
Star WR Nucua (ankle) only played six snaps in second half.
Ravens drove 53 yards, kicked FG on their first drive.
Rest of game: 64 plays, 179 yards, no points, 3 turnovers.
Ravens lost their last four games (minus-8 in turnovers)
AFC North teams are 5-12 ATS in non-divisional games.

Colts 31, Cardinals 27
Arizona led 24-17 after the third quarter.
Colts in 4th quarter: 19 plays, 149 yards, 14 points,
Colts are 4-0 at home, scoring 33-29-40-31 points.
Indy scored 29+ points in all five of its wins.
Cardinals lost last four games by total of nine points.
Backup QB Brissett threw for 320 yards, two TD’s.
Under Gannon, Arizona is 11-6 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Gannon, Arizona is 9-3 ATS vs AFC teams.

— Famous birthdays, October 13th:
Paul Simon, 84
Rich Kotite, 83
Reggie Theus, 68
Doc Rivers, 64
Derek Harper, 64
Jerry Rice, 63
Trevor Hoffman, 58
Quincy Carter, 48
De’Von Achane, 24

Mariners 3, Blue Jays 1
Cal Raleigh homered for the Mariners.
Jorge Polanco knocked in Seattle’s other two runs.
Bryce Miller held Toronto to two hits in 6 IP.
Seattle leads series, 1-0; Game 2 is Monday.

Broncos 13, Jets 11
Jets are 0-6, with four losses by 6 or fewer points.
Jets ran 57 plays in this game, for a TOTAL of 82 yards.
Justin Fields is 14-35 as an NFL starting QB.
Denver drove 65 yards, kicked game-winning FG with 5:06 left.
Jets kicked FG’s on first two drives, both started in Denver territory
Jets rest of game: 51 plays, 85 yards, 3 points,
Denver won its last three games, giving up 3-17-11 points.
Under is 5-1 in Broncos’ games.

Steelers 23, Browns 9
Rodgers threw for 235 yards, two TD’s.
Last 9 years, Pittsburgh is 9-0 SU/7-2 ATS coming off a bye.
Pittsburgh is 15-4 ATS last 19 AFC North home games.
Steelers held Cleveland to 3.3 yards per play.
Browns’ first three drives: 15 plays, 29 yards, three punts.
Cleveland didn’t score a TD; they trailed 9-3 at halftime.
Browns scored 16-17-13-10-17-9 points in their 1-5 start.
Browns are 0-5 SU/ATS last five visits to Pittsburgh.

Patriots 25, Saints 19
NE’s first four drives: 24 plays, 219 yards, 22 points,
Kayshon Boutte caught five passes for 93 yards, two TD’s.
Patriots scored 33-42-23-25 points in wins, 13-14 in losses.
Patriots are 7-3-1 ATS last 11 games as a road favorite.
Saints were 3-9 on third down, Patriots 6-13.
New England held Alvin Kamara to 31 yards on 10 carries.
Saints are 7-14 ATS last 21 games as a home underdog.
Rattler is 1-11 as an NFL starting QB.

Seahawks 20, Jaguars 12
WR Smith-Njigba caught 8 passes for 162 yards and a TD.
Seahawks won four of last five games, scoring 30.4 ppg.
Seattle is 3-0 on road (31-17 Pitt/23-20 Arizona/20-12 Jaguars)
Seahawks have won their last nine road games.
Jaguars were 4-16 on 3rd down, had 10 penalties for 76 yards.
Seahawks are 22-6 in last 28 1:00 kickoffs on East Coast.
Seattle sacked Trevor Lawrence seven times for 44 yards.
Seattle held last five foes to 73 rushing yards/game.

Raiders 20, Titans 10
Raiders led 10-0 at half, snapped a four-game skid.
Titans in first half: 30 plays, 76 yards, four punts, no points.
Last 3+ years, Raiders are 11-4 ATS as a home favorite.
RB Jeanty carried ball 23 times for 75 yards and a TD.
Not much offense: total yards, 226-225 Raiders.
Las Vegas won despite running ball 32 times for only 68 yards.
Titans had three turnovers, were only 3-13 on third down.
Tennessee is 1-5 SU/ATS, losing by 8-14-21-26-10 points.

Packers 27, Bengals 18
Packers ran ball 33 times for 153 yards, outgained Cincy 409-268.
Green Bay won their three home games, 27-13/27-18/27-18.
Green Bay led 10-0 at halftime.
Bengals in first half: 21 yards, 102 yards, no points.
Bengals lost last four games, by 38-25-13-9 points.
Flacco was 29-45/219 passing; he threw 2 TD’s, beat the spread.
Green Bay outgained the Bengals, 409-268.
Green Bay scored 27+ points in four of its five games.

 

[Udog]

NFL
Weather Report

Monday, October 13

NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 6

Monday’s games
Bills (–4.5) @ Falcons
Bills (4-1)
Buffalo scored 41-30-31-31 points in its four wins.
Last week, Bills lost 23-20 at home to New England.
Buffalo is 11-7 ATS last 18 games coming off a loss.
QB Allen is 87-41 as an NFL starter.
McDermott is 96-53 as an NFL head coach.


Bills won their only road game, 30-10 at the Jets.
Buffalo is 14-11 ATS last 25 games as a road favorite.
Bills converted 14 of last 30 third down plays.
Buffalo is 10-10-1 ATS in last 21 games vs NFC teams.
AFC East teams are 4-6 ATS in non-divisional games.


Falcons (2-2)
Atlanta is 2-2 despite outgaining foes by 98-128-108-141 yards.
Falcons held first three foes to 260-198-224-294 total yards.
Atlanta scored 22-34 points in its wins, 20-0 in losses.
QB Penix is 3-4 as an NFL starter.
Morris is 31-49 as a head coach.


Under Morris, Atlanta is 2-3 ATS as a home underdog.
Last 15 years, Falcons are 11-4 SU/ATS in post-bye games.
Atlanta is 3-10-2 ATS in last 15 games vs AFC teams.
Last 16 years, Falcons are 11-5 SU/ATS in post-bye games.
NFC South teams are 8-7 ATS in non-divisional games.


Bills won 23-15/23-17 in last two series games.
Underdogs covered four of last five meetings.
Under is 3-1 in last four series games.


Bears @ Commanders (-4.5)
Bears (2-2)
Bears won their last two games, scoring 31-25 points.
In their two wins, Chicago was +7 in turnovers.
Ben Johnson is 2-2 as an NFL head coach.
QB Williams is 7-14 as an NFL starter.


Chicago is 12-21-2 ATS last 35 games as a road underdog.
Last 11 years, Chicago is 1-10 SU/3-8 ATS in games coming off a bye.
Bears gave up 240 yards rushing in their 25-24 win at Las Vegas.
Three of their four games went over the total.
NFC North teams are 7-5 ATS in divisional games.


Commanders (3-2)
Washington is 2-0 at home: 21-6 Giants/41-24 Raiders.
Washington averaged 8.4 yards/pass attempt in LW’s 27-10 win at the Chargers.
Last three games, Commanders scored 41-27-27 points.
QB Daniels is 16-7 as an NFL starter.
Quinn is 63-52 as an NFL coach.


In its wins, Commanders ran ball for 220-201-163 yards.
Under Quinn, Commanders are 8-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Opponents converted 15 of last 28 third down plays.
Under Quinn, Commanders are 7-6 ATS in games coming off a win.
NFC East teams are 8-6 ATS in non-divisional games.


Washington won nine of last 11 series games (2-2 last four)
Teams split last four meetings played here.
Over is 5-2 in last seven series games.


Washington interviewed Ben Johnson for their coaching opening in spring of 2024, but he pulled out of the running and stayed as OC of the Lions last year.

 

[CNOTES]

Monday, October 13​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
BUF at ATL	07:15 PM	ATL +3.5***** U 49.5*****	+500 +500
CHI at WAS	08:15 PM	CHI +5.5***** U 49.5*****	+500 +500

***** BEST BETS

 

[CNOTES]

CNOTES NFL BEST BETS FOR OCTOBER !

10/13/2025......................4 - 0 - 0.......................100.00%....................+ 20.00
10/12/2025......................6 - 7 - 0.........................46.15%....................- 8.50
10/09/2025...............,......0 - 2 - 0.........................00.00%....................- 11.00
10/06/2025......................0 - 2 - 0.........................00.00%....................- 11.00
10/05/2025......................9 - 3 - 0.........................75.00%....................+ 28.50
10/02/2025......................1 - 1 - 0.........................50.00%....................- 0.50

TOTALS........................20 - 15 -- 0.........................57.14%................... + 17.50

 

[CNOTES]

Tuesday’s 6-pack:
Week 7 NFL spreads
— Giants @ Denver (-6.5)
— Packers (-6.5) @ Arizona
— Commanders (-2.5) @ Dallas
— Falcons @ San Francisco (-2.5)
— Buccaneers @ Detroit (-5.5)
— Texans @ Seattle (-3.5)

Quote of the Day
“To be honest, it was shocking to me. Andrew Berry must be a lot smarter than me or us because it doesn’t make sense to me to trade a quarterback that you think enough of to make your opening-day starter to a division opponent that’s hurting in that area, but that’s just my personal feelings.”

Steelers coach Mike Tomlin, talking about the Joe Flacco/Browns-Bengals trade

Thursday’s quiz
In the history of the Cincinnati Bengals, who has the most passing yards?

Monday’s quiz
Bill O’Brien was the football coach at Penn State before James Franklin.

Sunday’s quiz
When the Jets won their only Super Bowl, they beat the Baltimore Colts, 16-7.

**************************************

Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but…….​

Falcons 24, Bills 14
Bijan Robinson ran ball 19 times for 170 yards, with an 81-yard TD.
Atlanta led 21-7 at halftime.
Falcons in first half: 36 plays, 340 yards, 21 points.
Falcons in second half: 31 plays, 118 yards, 3 points.
Bills drove 73 yards for a TD on their first drive.
Bills’ next six drives: 19 plays, 48 yards, no points.
Falcons outgained Buffalo, 443-291.
Buffalo scored 41-30-31-31 points in wins, 20-14 in losses.

Bears 25, Commanders 24
Bears drove 36 yards, kicked game-winning 38-yard FG at the gun.
Chicago was +3 in turnovers, outgained Washington. 381-329.
Bears won their last three games, scoring 31-25-25 points.
In their three wins, Chicago is +10 in turnovers.
Washington turned the ball over twice on their first nine plays.
Chicago led 13-7 at halftime.
Bears outgained Washington, 381-329.
4th quarter of this game was played in the rain.

— Dodgers 2, Brewers 1
Treinen struck out Turang with bases loaded to end the game.
Blake Snell allowed one hit in eight shutout IP.
Freddie Freeman homered, doubled for LA.
Game 2 is Tuesday in Milwaukee.

— Mariners 10, Blue Jays 3
Rodriguez/Polanco both hit 3-run homers.
Josh Naylor went 3-for-4 with two RBI
First two games in this series, Toronto is 1-for-42 from the 3rd inning on.
Game 3 is in Seattle Wednesday.

— Famous birthdays, October 14th:
Art Shamsky, 84
Al Oliver, 79
Charlie Joiner, 78
Ron Wolfley, 63
Keith Byars, 62
Lori Petty, 62
Joe Girardi, 61
Jim Jackson, 55
Frank Wycheck, 54
Merrill Kelly, 37
Jared Goff, 31
Emeka Egbuka, 23

— Penn State fired football coach James Franklin after the Nittany Lions lost three games in a row, the last two as 20-point favorites, but jeez……Franklin was 104-45 at Penn State and was in the College Football Playoff last year.
Franklin gets paid $49.5M to take a hike. Someone really, really wanted him fired.

— Mike Shildt is out as manager of the San Diego Padres; it is unclear whether he jumped or got pushed, though he said the decision was his.
“While it has always been about serving others, it’s time I take care of myself and exit on my terms…….I gave every fiber of my being to help achieve Peter Seidler’s vision of bringing a World Series Championship to San Diego.
We fell short of the ultimate goal, but I am proud of what the players, staff and organization were able to accomplish the last two seasons.”
Shildt had six winning seasons in his six years as a manager; he was 435-340, making it to the playoffs his last five years.

— Tennessee Titans fired coach Brian Callahan Monday; he was 4-19 in 1+ years coaching the Titans. His father Bill was the Titans OL coach; he has also left the team.
Senior offensive assistant Mike McCoy will take over as interim coach. McCoy previously was the head coach of the San Diego Chargers from 2013 to 2016. He had a 27-37 record, making the playoffs in his first season.

— College football conference trends:

American
Favorites 14-5 ATS

ACC
Road teams 14-10 ATS

Big 18
Underdogs 17-11 ATS

Big X
Favorites 17-8 ATS

Conference USA
Home teams 8-3 ATS

Mid-American
Home teams 11-4 ATS

Mountain West
Home teams 6-7 ATS

SEC
Home teams 14-8 ATS

Sun Belt
Home teams 12-4 ATS

— NFL divisional trends:

AFC East
Home teams 1-4 ATS divisional games
7-7 ATS non-divisional games

AFC North
5-12 ATS non-divisional games

AFC South
9-8 ATS non-divisional games

AFC West
5-2 ATS non-divisional home games
3-8 ATS non-divisional road games

NFC East
8-8 ATS non-divisional games

NFC North
8-7 ATS non-divisional games

NFC South
Non-divisional road underdogs 5-3 ATS

NFC West
Home teams 0-4 ATS divisional games
10-6 ATS non-divisional games

— Movie of the Day: The Rewrite (2014)- An Oscar-winning script writer in a slump leaves Hollywood to teach screenwriting at SUNY-Binghamton, where he falls for a single mom taking classes there.
Hugh Grant, Marisa Tomei, JK Simmons, Allison Janney, excellent cast.
This is a nice movie; the world needs more nice.

— Oregon-Rutgers play this week; because college/minor league sports are run now by over-educated morons, these teams are in the same league.
These two schools are 2,909 miles apart; they’re not the only ones. Cal/Stanford in the ACC, Washington in the Big 18, it all makes zero sense.

— Last week in college/minor league, 8 of the top 25 teams lost.

— Rams played in Baltimore Sunday, are playing in London this week; they’re spending this week in Baltimore, and are practicing at the Orioles ballpark, Camden Yards.

— The last four QB’s taken #1 in the NFL Draft had their coaches fired during their rookie year:
2021- Jaguars, Trevor Lawrence/Urban Meyer
2023- Panthers, Bryce Young/Frank Reich
2024- Bears, Caleb Williams/Matt Eberflus
2025- Titans, Cam Ward/Brian Callahan