Friday’s 6-pack:
Thru four weeks, most pass plays of 20+ yards:
17— Rams
16— 49ers
15— Raiders
14— Bills, Bears, Seahawks
13— Cowboys, Chargers, Buccaneers
12— Packers, Texans, Colts, Giants, Patriots
Quote of the Day
“I’d love to manage again. Obviously, Atlanta would be amazing, but there’s nothing to really elaborate on.”
Former major league catcher/manager David Ross
Friday’s quiz
In the history of the Houston Oilers/Tennessee Titans, who has thrown for the most yards?
Thursday’s quiz
1995 was the last time the Cincinnati Reds won a playoff series, the longest current drought in the major leagues.
Wednesday’s quiz
2019 was last time the World Series went to seven games, when Washington beat Houston.
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Dillon Dingler hit the go-ahead homer in the 6th inning.
Tigers broke game open, scoring four runs in 7th inning.
Detroit-Seattle will meet in the ALDS.
— Cubs 3, Padres 1
Taillon allowed two baserunners in four scoreless IP (60 PT)
San Diego was 0-8 with runners in scoring position.
Cubs play Milwaukee in the NLDS.
— Bronx 4, Red Sox 0
Rookie Schlittler struck out 12 in eight scoreless IP.
Bronx scored all four of its runs in the fourth inning.
New York-Toronto will meet in the ALDS.
— 49ers 26, Rams 23 OT
SF stopped the Rams on 4th-and-1 to end the game.
Rams forced OT, kicking a 48-yard FG with 0:02 left
Rams also fumbled on the 49ers’ 1-yard line with 1:02 left.
49ers’ five games have all been decided by 5 or fewer points.
SF WR Bourne caught 10 passes for 142 yards.
49ers’ first two drives: 25 plays, 163 yards, 14 points.
49ers won six of last eight visits to Los Angeles.
Underdogs are 5-0-1 ATS in last six series games.
— New Mexico State 37, Sam Houston State 10
New Mexico State led 13-10 after the third quarter.
Aggies threw ball for 255 yards (9.4 yards/attempt)
Aggies were 9-13 on third down, Sam Houston 3-11
— Knicks 99, 76ers 84
Exhibition game was played in Abu Dhabi.
Knicks outscored Philly 28-18 in second quarter.
Knicks played 19 different players, 76ers played 13 guys.
— Movie of the Day: All the President’s Men (1976)- Washington Post reporters Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein uncover details of the Watergate scandal that leads to President Richard Nixon’s resignation.
Tremendous cast: Robert Redford, Dustin Hoffman, Jack Warden, Hal Holbrook, Jason Robards, Martin Balsam, Ned Beatty, Meredith Baxter.
—Famous birthdays, October 3rd:
Dave Winfield, 74
Greg Foster, 57
Janel Moloney, 56
Anquan Boldin, 45
Courtney Lee, 40
Mike Gesicki, 30
CJ Abrams, 25
CJ Stroud, 24
Abdul Carter, 22
Seven baseball players who could be free agents this winter:
— Pete Alonso 1B- Has $24M option with the Mets for next year, but can probably make way more than that, even though he is 31. Last five years, he’s hit 195 homers, played in 158 games a year. Durable and productive; Mets will probably re-sign him.
— Luis Arraez 1B/2B- Won three of last four batting titles, slumped to .292 this year. Does not have a lot of power, not real fast, average fielder, but he gets a lot of hits.
— Bo Bichette SS- Hit .311 this year with an .840 OPS. Led the league in hits in 2021/2022; he had an injury-plagued season last year. Had 94 RBI this season.
— Alex Bregman 3B- Can opt out of the last two years of his contract, which would pay $80M; had an .821 OPS this year, his best since 2019. It is assumed that he will opt out.
— Kyle Schwarber OF/DH- Is 33 years old, but he hit 56 homers, had 132 RBI this year, has 187 homers the last four seasons. Philly is an excellent hitters’ park; should he stay there?
— Kyle Tucker OF- Hit 134 homers the last five years, has career OPS of .865. Hurt his hand in July and struggled in second half of season.
— Framber Valdez, P- Is 32 years old; over last four years, is 57-35 in 121 starts. He’s pitched in the playoffs five of the last six years.
Thru four weeks, most pass plays of 20+ yards:
17— Rams
16— 49ers
15— Raiders
14— Bills, Bears, Seahawks
13— Cowboys, Chargers, Buccaneers
12— Packers, Texans, Colts, Giants, Patriots
Quote of the Day
“I’d love to manage again. Obviously, Atlanta would be amazing, but there’s nothing to really elaborate on.”
Former major league catcher/manager David Ross
Friday’s quiz
In the history of the Houston Oilers/Tennessee Titans, who has thrown for the most yards?
Thursday’s quiz
1995 was the last time the Cincinnati Reds won a playoff series, the longest current drought in the major leagues.
Wednesday’s quiz
2019 was last time the World Series went to seven games, when Washington beat Houston.
*************************************************
Friday’s Den: Wrapping up a busy Thursday……
— Tigers 6, Guardians 3Dillon Dingler hit the go-ahead homer in the 6th inning.
Tigers broke game open, scoring four runs in 7th inning.
Detroit-Seattle will meet in the ALDS.
— Cubs 3, Padres 1
Taillon allowed two baserunners in four scoreless IP (60 PT)
San Diego was 0-8 with runners in scoring position.
Cubs play Milwaukee in the NLDS.
— Bronx 4, Red Sox 0
Rookie Schlittler struck out 12 in eight scoreless IP.
Bronx scored all four of its runs in the fourth inning.
New York-Toronto will meet in the ALDS.
— 49ers 26, Rams 23 OT
SF stopped the Rams on 4th-and-1 to end the game.
Rams forced OT, kicking a 48-yard FG with 0:02 left
Rams also fumbled on the 49ers’ 1-yard line with 1:02 left.
49ers’ five games have all been decided by 5 or fewer points.
SF WR Bourne caught 10 passes for 142 yards.
49ers’ first two drives: 25 plays, 163 yards, 14 points.
49ers won six of last eight visits to Los Angeles.
Underdogs are 5-0-1 ATS in last six series games.
— New Mexico State 37, Sam Houston State 10
New Mexico State led 13-10 after the third quarter.
Aggies threw ball for 255 yards (9.4 yards/attempt)
Aggies were 9-13 on third down, Sam Houston 3-11
— Knicks 99, 76ers 84
Exhibition game was played in Abu Dhabi.
Knicks outscored Philly 28-18 in second quarter.
Knicks played 19 different players, 76ers played 13 guys.
— Movie of the Day: All the President’s Men (1976)- Washington Post reporters Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein uncover details of the Watergate scandal that leads to President Richard Nixon’s resignation.
Tremendous cast: Robert Redford, Dustin Hoffman, Jack Warden, Hal Holbrook, Jason Robards, Martin Balsam, Ned Beatty, Meredith Baxter.
—Famous birthdays, October 3rd:
Dave Winfield, 74
Greg Foster, 57
Janel Moloney, 56
Anquan Boldin, 45
Courtney Lee, 40
Mike Gesicki, 30
CJ Abrams, 25
CJ Stroud, 24
Abdul Carter, 22
Seven baseball players who could be free agents this winter:
— Pete Alonso 1B- Has $24M option with the Mets for next year, but can probably make way more than that, even though he is 31. Last five years, he’s hit 195 homers, played in 158 games a year. Durable and productive; Mets will probably re-sign him.
— Luis Arraez 1B/2B- Won three of last four batting titles, slumped to .292 this year. Does not have a lot of power, not real fast, average fielder, but he gets a lot of hits.
— Bo Bichette SS- Hit .311 this year with an .840 OPS. Led the league in hits in 2021/2022; he had an injury-plagued season last year. Had 94 RBI this season.
— Alex Bregman 3B- Can opt out of the last two years of his contract, which would pay $80M; had an .821 OPS this year, his best since 2019. It is assumed that he will opt out.
— Kyle Schwarber OF/DH- Is 33 years old, but he hit 56 homers, had 132 RBI this year, has 187 homers the last four seasons. Philly is an excellent hitters’ park; should he stay there?
— Kyle Tucker OF- Hit 134 homers the last five years, has career OPS of .865. Hurt his hand in July and struggled in second half of season.
— Framber Valdez, P- Is 32 years old; over last four years, is 57-35 in 121 starts. He’s pitched in the playoffs five of the last six years.
Chalk Rules
Best of the BestNFL closing favorites of 6 pts or more are 16-2-1 SU this season — that is the fewest outright losses by 6+ favorites through four games since 1979, when they went (19-1 SU). Dating back to Week 13 of last year, these 6+ pt favorites are on a 56-6-1 SU (90.3%) stretch, winning by 14 points per game.
The totals market has been a bit different Through 64 games, we have had 32 overs and 32 unders … exactly .500 entering Week 5.
Favorites?!?!
Streak BreakingPanthers haven't won or covered the spread in a game (reg/post) they were favored in since Sept. of 2021 — four full years ago – they’ve lost 10 straight SU/ATS as a favorite. Every other team in the NFL has at least 3 covers as a favorite in this span (2nd-fewest, Giants).
The 10-game SU losing streak as favorites is the longest for any team since the 1970 merger. Since 2020, Carolina is 3-13 ATS as favorites. They’ve covered against Davis Mills, Zach Wilson and Dwayne Haskins in those three wins.
If you also look at the preseason, they are 0-5 ATS as favs last 3 years — last cover coming in 2022 and between preseason, regular and post, they are 1-10 ATS as favorites since 2022 and 5-18 ATS since 2020.
Data-driven betting tools
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Public Humiliation
Rough StartAccording to Action Network betting data, teams with 60%+ of tickets this season are 10-24 ATS through four weeks. Through four weeks, that is the worst ATS mark for those public bettors in the 23-year history of our database. The 2nd-worst? Last year, where they went 12-22-1 ATS. In the last two seasons, teams with 60%+ of tickets went 22-46-1 ATS (32%) in the first four weeks of the year.
What A Run
Lions Cover MachinesDetroit is 50-21-1 ATS (70.4%) in the regular season since 2021. They are demolishing the best 5-yr ATS regular season mark since 1990, which goes to the 2003-07 Patriots and 1999-03 Eagles at 66.2%.
In that span since 2021, Goff has 48 of the Lions 50 covers. Next closest QB in total ATS covers is Justin Herbert with 39.
➤The Lions have recently been simply dominant.
SU streaks:
17-3 SU (85%) last 20 games
31-9 SU (78%) last 40 games
40-12 SU (77%) last 52 games
ATS streaks:
14-5-1 ATS last 20 games
21-7-1 ATS last 29 games
38-13-1 ATS last 52 games
Want to find a similar 50-game ATS stretch as the Lions, the Vikings in 2016-17 also had a 50-game stretch with 70%+ cover pct.
Back To Even
No OutliersWe are entering Week 5 and we have no undefeated ATS teams and no defeated ATS teams — a balance in the NFL through four weeks we have only seen three times since the start of the Wild Card era in 1990.
2025, 2010 and 2005 are the three seasons where we haven't had either a undefeated or defeated ATS team through four weeks.
Another Week
Titans FutilityThe Titans ATS futility knows no bounds…
They are now:
• 2-15 ATS in their last 17 games
• 3-18 ATS in their last 21
• 6-24-1 ATS in their last 31
• 8-27-1 ATS in their last 36
In the Titans last 25 games, they are 4-20-1 ATS – that is the worst mark for any team in the Wild Card era. At 20% or less ATS over a 25-game sample size, the 2018 Broncos and 2017 Browns would be the last team with this bad a stretch.
Out and Out?
Time Is NowThe Ravens are 1-3 SU after their loss to Chiefs last week. Since division realignment in 2002, sixteen teams had a double-digit win total in the preseason and started the season 1-3 SU – 14 failed to make the playoffs and two did (2007 Chargers, 2002 Steelers). Thirteen consecutive teams since San Diego in 2007 have failed to bounce back from the tough start and make the postseason.
Low, Low, Low
International IncidentIn the NFL International Series, which started in 2005 for regular season, the O/U in Vikings-Browns this week is the lowest total among all 51 games…
Lookahead was 41.5, it is now down to 36.5
These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games
* NY GIANTS are 13-0 Under the total when coming off a win over an AFC foe since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYG-NO (o/u at 42.5)
Pre-bye week system #10: Play on any teams heading into their bye week and playing as favorites in an overseas neutral field contest (Record: 15-2-1 SU and 13-5 ATS since 2008, 72.2%, +7.5 Units, 41.7% ROI, Grade 65)
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-4.5 vs CLE)
NFL Streaks Betting System #5: NFL teams that have won their last four games outright while outscoring opponents by fewer than 30 total points in that span have gone 62-14 SU and 50-24-2 ATS (67.6%) in the next game when favored.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-3.5 vs DEN)
* Strangely, the league’s highest scoring teams have not fared well on Sunday Night Football of late, as those scoring 30+ PPG are 14-9 SU but 6-17 ATS (26.1%) in their last 23 tries against teams not scoring that much.
System Match (FADE ATS): BUFFALO (-8.5 vs NE)
* NFL teams that lost, scored 7 points or fewer, and had 10 or fewer first downs in a game have performed admirably as underdogs in the next contest, 21-36 SU but 37-20 ATS (64.9%) over the last decade-plus.
System Matches (PLAY ALL ATS): TENNESSEE (+7.5 at ARI), CINCINNATI (+10.5 vs DET)
* TAMPA BAY is on 26-9 (74.3%) Over the total surge as a single-digit road underdog
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TB-SEA (o/u at 44.5)
* Road teams are 8-1 ATS in the Raiders-Colts series since 2010
Trend Match (PLAY): LAS VEGAS (+7 at IND)
#1 Underpriced Underdog according to the Makinen Power Ratings: BALTIMORE +1.5 vs Houston (projections have line at BAL -1.5)
Road favorites in Weeks 5 and 6 are 35-15 ATS (70%) since 2021
* NY GIANTS are 13-0 Under the total when coming off a win over an AFC foe since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYG-NO (o/u at 42.5)
Pre-bye week system #10: Play on any teams heading into their bye week and playing as favorites in an overseas neutral field contest (Record: 15-2-1 SU and 13-5 ATS since 2008, 72.2%, +7.5 Units, 41.7% ROI, Grade 65)
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-4.5 vs CLE)
NFL Streaks Betting System #5: NFL teams that have won their last four games outright while outscoring opponents by fewer than 30 total points in that span have gone 62-14 SU and 50-24-2 ATS (67.6%) in the next game when favored.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-3.5 vs DEN)
* Strangely, the league’s highest scoring teams have not fared well on Sunday Night Football of late, as those scoring 30+ PPG are 14-9 SU but 6-17 ATS (26.1%) in their last 23 tries against teams not scoring that much.
System Match (FADE ATS): BUFFALO (-8.5 vs NE)
* NFL teams that lost, scored 7 points or fewer, and had 10 or fewer first downs in a game have performed admirably as underdogs in the next contest, 21-36 SU but 37-20 ATS (64.9%) over the last decade-plus.
System Matches (PLAY ALL ATS): TENNESSEE (+7.5 at ARI), CINCINNATI (+10.5 vs DET)
* TAMPA BAY is on 26-9 (74.3%) Over the total surge as a single-digit road underdog
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TB-SEA (o/u at 44.5)
* Road teams are 8-1 ATS in the Raiders-Colts series since 2010
Trend Match (PLAY): LAS VEGAS (+7 at IND)
#1 Underpriced Underdog according to the Makinen Power Ratings: BALTIMORE +1.5 vs Houston (projections have line at BAL -1.5)
Road favorites in Weeks 5 and 6 are 35-15 ATS (70%) since 2021
These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:
(461) MINNESOTA (2-2) at (462) CLEVELAND (1-3)
* MINNESOTA is 31-18 SU and 32-15 ATS versus AFC opponents since 2014
* MINNESOTA boasts an impressive 82-58 SU and 88-51-1 ATS record when playing on normal rest (7 days) since 2011
* MINNESOTA is 32-25 ATS (56.1%) when coming off a SU loss since 2014
Trends Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-4.5 at CLE)
* MINNESOTA is 60-47 Over the total (56.1%) since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-CLE (o/u at 36.5)
(463) MIAMI (1-3) at (464) CAROLINA (1-3)
* CAROLINA is 7-18 SU and 6-19 ATS vs. poor teams with winning percentages <=33% since 2017
* CAROLINA is 19-29 ATS (39.6%) at home since 2019
* MIAMI is on a 34-18 SU and 33-18 ATS surge vs. teams with a losing record since 2019
* MIAMI’s Tua Tagovailoa is on a 13-6 SU and ATS surge with his team coming off a home win
* MIAMI is 29-18 ATS (61.7%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
* MIAMI’s Tua Tagovailoa is 11-1 SU and 10-1-1 ATS vs. teams with poor point differentials of <=-4.5 PPG since 2022
Trends Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-1.5 at CAR)
* CAROLINA’s Bryce Young is on 7-4 Under the total run with his team coming off a double-digit loss
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-CAR (o/u at 45.5)
(465) DALLAS (1-2) at (466) NY JETS (0-4)
* DALLAS is 26-9 SU and 23-12 ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2020
* DALLAS is 22-15 ATS (59.5%) in road/neutral games since 2021
* NY JETS are 8-25 SU and 10-21 ATS when playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2012
* NY JETS are 13-30 ATS (30.2%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
* NY JETS’ Justin Fields is 11-28 SU and 15-22-2 ATS (40.5%) in Sunday games. The average line was +3.2, Team average PF: 19.6
Trends Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-2.5 at NYJ)
(467) LAS VEGAS (1-3) at (468) INDIANAPOLIS (3-1)
* INDIANAPOLIS’s Daniel Jones is 15-18 SU and 20-14 ATS with his team coming off an outright loss since 2020
* LAS VEGAS is 35-50 ATS (41.2%) when coming off SU loss since 2015
* LAS VEGAS is 37-51 ATS (42%) in road/neutral games since 2015
Trends Match (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (-7 vs LVR)
(469) DENVER (2-2) at (470) PHILADELPHIA (4-0)
* DENVER is 18-6 Under the total when coming off a double-digit victory since 2017
* DENVER is 101-68 Under the total (59.8%) since 2015
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-PHI (o/u at 43.5)
* PHILADELPHIA is 15-4 SU and 16-3 ATS vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2020
* PHILADELPHIA’s Nick Sirianni boasts a 24-2 SU and 18-7 ATS record as a single-digit home favorite since 2021
Trends Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-3.5 vs DEN)
(471) NY GIANTS (1-3) at (472) NEW ORLEANS (0-4)
* NY GIANTS are 13-0 Under the total when coming off a win over an AFC foe since 2016
* NY GIANTS are 58-29 Under the total (66.7%) since 2020
* NY GIANTS’ Brian Daboll is on 22-9 Under the total surge as a single-digit underdog
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): NYG-NO (o/u at 42.5)
* NEW ORLEANS is 24-44 ATS (35.3%) at home since 2017
Trend Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (-1.5 vs NYG)
(473) HOUSTON (1-3) at (474) BALTIMORE (1-3)
* HOUSTON’s CJ Stroud is 14-7 Under the total in the last 21 games with his team coming off a win
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-BAL (o/u at 40.5)
* BALTIMORE is 13-14 SU but 21-6 ATS as an underdog since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+1.5 vs HOU)
(475) TENNESSEE (0-4) at (476) ARIZONA (2-2)
* TENNESSEE is on a 7-32 SU and 8-30-1 ATS skid in Sunday games
Trend Match (FADE): TENNESSEE (+7.5 at ARI)
* ARIZONA is 41-19 SU and 37-23 ATS vs. poor teams with winning percentages <=33% since 2012
* ARIZONA is 27-32 ATS (45.8%) at home since 2018
* ARIZONA is 20-33 ATS (37.7%) as a favorite since 2016
* ARIZONA’s Kyler Murray is 13-2 SU and 12-3 ATS in the last 15 games vs. poor offensive teams scoring <19 PPG
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 2 FADES of ARIZONA (-7.5 vs TEN)
* ARIZONA’s Kyler Murray is 11-1 Over the total vs. teams with a losing record since 2022
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TEN-ARI (o/u at 42.5)
(477) TAMPA BAY (3-1) at (478) SEATTLE (3-1)
* TAMPA BAY is on 26-9 Over the total surge as a single-digit road underdog
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TB-SEA (o/u at 44.5)
* SEATTLE is 42-52-1 ATS (44.7%) when coming off a SU win since 2015
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-3.5 vs TB)
* TAMPA BAY is 29-35 ATS (45.3%) when coming off a SU loss since 2016
* TAMPA BAY’s Baker Mayfield is 10-17 SU but 18-9 ATS as a road underdog since 2020
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of TAMPA BAY (+3.5 at SEA)
(479) DETROIT (3-1) at (480) CINCINNATI (2-2)
* DETROIT is 50-21-1 ATS (70.4%) overall since 2021
* DETROIT is 18-5 SU and ATS when coming off a double-digit win since 2018
Trends Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-10.5 at CIN)
* CINCINNATI is 13-24 SU but 26-12 ATS surge when coming off an outright road loss since 2016
* CINCINNATI is 25-17 ATS (59.5%) as an underdog since 2020
* CINCINNATI’s Zac Taylor is on a 13-9 SU and 16-6 ATS run vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7%
Trends Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+10.5 vs DET)
(481) WASHINGTON (2-2) at (482) LA CHARGERS (3-1)
* LA CHARGERS are on 26-10 Under the total surge in Sunday games
* LA CHARGERS are on 15-3 Under the total streak when playing on normal rest (7 days)
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): WAS-LAC (o/u at 47.5)
* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is 6-15 SU and 5-15 ATS vs. AFC since 2016
* WASHINGTON is 20-34 ATS (37%) when coming off a SU loss since 2019
Trends Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+2.5 at LAC)
* LA CHARGERS are 37-50-1 ATS (42.5%) at home since 2014
Trend Match (FADE): LA CHARGERS (-2.5 vs WAS)
(483) NEW ENGLAND (2-2) at (484) BUFFALO (4-0)
* NEW ENGLAND is 17-27-2 ATS (38.6%) as an underdog since 2021
Trend Match (FADE): NEW ENGLAND (+8.5 at BUF)
(485) KANSAS CITY (2-2) at (486) JACKSONVILLE (3-1)
* KANSAS CITY is 20-10 SU but 6-22 ATS when coming off a game of scoring 30+ points since 2020
* KANSAS CITY is 57-39-1 ATS (59.4%) in road/neutral games since 2014
* KANSAS CITY’s Patrick Mahomes boasts a 30-10 SU and 25-13 ATS record vs. teams with elite point differentials of >=+4.5 since 2019
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of KANSAS CITY (-3.5 at JAX)
* JACKSONVILLE’s Trevor Lawrence is 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS with his team coming off an upset win since 2022
Trend Match (PLAY): JACKSONVILLE (+3.5 vs KC)
* JACKSONVILLE is 41-32 Under the total (56.2%) since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-JAX (o/u at 46.5)
SHUTOUTS ARE EXTREMES
1) Teams that get shut out in a game have been solid bounce back teams in the next outing, going 28-36 SU but 38-24-2 ATS (61.3%) since 2012.
System Match (PLAY ATS): TENNESSEE (+7.5 at ARI)
2) Teams off a home shutout win have actually been dreadful in the next outing recently in the NFL, going 15-21 SU and 12-23-1 ATS (34.3%) in their last 36 games following up that extremely good defensive performance.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-1.5 at BAL)
DON’T DISMISS TEAMS OFF DREADFUL OFFENSIVE OUTINGS
3) NFL teams that lost, scored 7 points or fewer, and had 10 or fewer first downs in a game have performed admirably as underdogs in the next contest, 21-36 SU but 37-20 ATS (64.9%) over the last decade-plus.
System Matches (PLAY ALL ATS): TENNESSEE (+7.5 at ARI), CINCINNATI (+10.5 vs DET)
(461) MINNESOTA (2-2) at (462) CLEVELAND (1-3)
* MINNESOTA is 31-18 SU and 32-15 ATS versus AFC opponents since 2014
* MINNESOTA boasts an impressive 82-58 SU and 88-51-1 ATS record when playing on normal rest (7 days) since 2011
* MINNESOTA is 32-25 ATS (56.1%) when coming off a SU loss since 2014
Trends Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-4.5 at CLE)
* MINNESOTA is 60-47 Over the total (56.1%) since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-CLE (o/u at 36.5)
(463) MIAMI (1-3) at (464) CAROLINA (1-3)
* CAROLINA is 7-18 SU and 6-19 ATS vs. poor teams with winning percentages <=33% since 2017
* CAROLINA is 19-29 ATS (39.6%) at home since 2019
* MIAMI is on a 34-18 SU and 33-18 ATS surge vs. teams with a losing record since 2019
* MIAMI’s Tua Tagovailoa is on a 13-6 SU and ATS surge with his team coming off a home win
* MIAMI is 29-18 ATS (61.7%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
* MIAMI’s Tua Tagovailoa is 11-1 SU and 10-1-1 ATS vs. teams with poor point differentials of <=-4.5 PPG since 2022
Trends Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-1.5 at CAR)
* CAROLINA’s Bryce Young is on 7-4 Under the total run with his team coming off a double-digit loss
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-CAR (o/u at 45.5)
(465) DALLAS (1-2) at (466) NY JETS (0-4)
* DALLAS is 26-9 SU and 23-12 ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2020
* DALLAS is 22-15 ATS (59.5%) in road/neutral games since 2021
* NY JETS are 8-25 SU and 10-21 ATS when playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2012
* NY JETS are 13-30 ATS (30.2%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
* NY JETS’ Justin Fields is 11-28 SU and 15-22-2 ATS (40.5%) in Sunday games. The average line was +3.2, Team average PF: 19.6
Trends Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-2.5 at NYJ)
(467) LAS VEGAS (1-3) at (468) INDIANAPOLIS (3-1)
* INDIANAPOLIS’s Daniel Jones is 15-18 SU and 20-14 ATS with his team coming off an outright loss since 2020
* LAS VEGAS is 35-50 ATS (41.2%) when coming off SU loss since 2015
* LAS VEGAS is 37-51 ATS (42%) in road/neutral games since 2015
Trends Match (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (-7 vs LVR)
(469) DENVER (2-2) at (470) PHILADELPHIA (4-0)
* DENVER is 18-6 Under the total when coming off a double-digit victory since 2017
* DENVER is 101-68 Under the total (59.8%) since 2015
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-PHI (o/u at 43.5)
* PHILADELPHIA is 15-4 SU and 16-3 ATS vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2020
* PHILADELPHIA’s Nick Sirianni boasts a 24-2 SU and 18-7 ATS record as a single-digit home favorite since 2021
Trends Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-3.5 vs DEN)
(471) NY GIANTS (1-3) at (472) NEW ORLEANS (0-4)
* NY GIANTS are 13-0 Under the total when coming off a win over an AFC foe since 2016
* NY GIANTS are 58-29 Under the total (66.7%) since 2020
* NY GIANTS’ Brian Daboll is on 22-9 Under the total surge as a single-digit underdog
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): NYG-NO (o/u at 42.5)
* NEW ORLEANS is 24-44 ATS (35.3%) at home since 2017
Trend Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (-1.5 vs NYG)
(473) HOUSTON (1-3) at (474) BALTIMORE (1-3)
* HOUSTON’s CJ Stroud is 14-7 Under the total in the last 21 games with his team coming off a win
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-BAL (o/u at 40.5)
* BALTIMORE is 13-14 SU but 21-6 ATS as an underdog since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+1.5 vs HOU)
(475) TENNESSEE (0-4) at (476) ARIZONA (2-2)
* TENNESSEE is on a 7-32 SU and 8-30-1 ATS skid in Sunday games
Trend Match (FADE): TENNESSEE (+7.5 at ARI)
* ARIZONA is 41-19 SU and 37-23 ATS vs. poor teams with winning percentages <=33% since 2012
* ARIZONA is 27-32 ATS (45.8%) at home since 2018
* ARIZONA is 20-33 ATS (37.7%) as a favorite since 2016
* ARIZONA’s Kyler Murray is 13-2 SU and 12-3 ATS in the last 15 games vs. poor offensive teams scoring <19 PPG
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 2 FADES of ARIZONA (-7.5 vs TEN)
* ARIZONA’s Kyler Murray is 11-1 Over the total vs. teams with a losing record since 2022
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TEN-ARI (o/u at 42.5)
(477) TAMPA BAY (3-1) at (478) SEATTLE (3-1)
* TAMPA BAY is on 26-9 Over the total surge as a single-digit road underdog
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TB-SEA (o/u at 44.5)
* SEATTLE is 42-52-1 ATS (44.7%) when coming off a SU win since 2015
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-3.5 vs TB)
* TAMPA BAY is 29-35 ATS (45.3%) when coming off a SU loss since 2016
* TAMPA BAY’s Baker Mayfield is 10-17 SU but 18-9 ATS as a road underdog since 2020
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of TAMPA BAY (+3.5 at SEA)
(479) DETROIT (3-1) at (480) CINCINNATI (2-2)
* DETROIT is 50-21-1 ATS (70.4%) overall since 2021
* DETROIT is 18-5 SU and ATS when coming off a double-digit win since 2018
Trends Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-10.5 at CIN)
* CINCINNATI is 13-24 SU but 26-12 ATS surge when coming off an outright road loss since 2016
* CINCINNATI is 25-17 ATS (59.5%) as an underdog since 2020
* CINCINNATI’s Zac Taylor is on a 13-9 SU and 16-6 ATS run vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7%
Trends Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+10.5 vs DET)
(481) WASHINGTON (2-2) at (482) LA CHARGERS (3-1)
* LA CHARGERS are on 26-10 Under the total surge in Sunday games
* LA CHARGERS are on 15-3 Under the total streak when playing on normal rest (7 days)
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): WAS-LAC (o/u at 47.5)
* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is 6-15 SU and 5-15 ATS vs. AFC since 2016
* WASHINGTON is 20-34 ATS (37%) when coming off a SU loss since 2019
Trends Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+2.5 at LAC)
* LA CHARGERS are 37-50-1 ATS (42.5%) at home since 2014
Trend Match (FADE): LA CHARGERS (-2.5 vs WAS)
(483) NEW ENGLAND (2-2) at (484) BUFFALO (4-0)
* NEW ENGLAND is 17-27-2 ATS (38.6%) as an underdog since 2021
Trend Match (FADE): NEW ENGLAND (+8.5 at BUF)
(485) KANSAS CITY (2-2) at (486) JACKSONVILLE (3-1)
* KANSAS CITY is 20-10 SU but 6-22 ATS when coming off a game of scoring 30+ points since 2020
* KANSAS CITY is 57-39-1 ATS (59.4%) in road/neutral games since 2014
* KANSAS CITY’s Patrick Mahomes boasts a 30-10 SU and 25-13 ATS record vs. teams with elite point differentials of >=+4.5 since 2019
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of KANSAS CITY (-3.5 at JAX)
* JACKSONVILLE’s Trevor Lawrence is 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS with his team coming off an upset win since 2022
Trend Match (PLAY): JACKSONVILLE (+3.5 vs KC)
* JACKSONVILLE is 41-32 Under the total (56.2%) since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-JAX (o/u at 46.5)
SHUTOUTS ARE EXTREMES
1) Teams that get shut out in a game have been solid bounce back teams in the next outing, going 28-36 SU but 38-24-2 ATS (61.3%) since 2012.
System Match (PLAY ATS): TENNESSEE (+7.5 at ARI)
2) Teams off a home shutout win have actually been dreadful in the next outing recently in the NFL, going 15-21 SU and 12-23-1 ATS (34.3%) in their last 36 games following up that extremely good defensive performance.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-1.5 at BAL)
DON’T DISMISS TEAMS OFF DREADFUL OFFENSIVE OUTINGS
3) NFL teams that lost, scored 7 points or fewer, and had 10 or fewer first downs in a game have performed admirably as underdogs in the next contest, 21-36 SU but 37-20 ATS (64.9%) over the last decade-plus.
System Matches (PLAY ALL ATS): TENNESSEE (+7.5 at ARI), CINCINNATI (+10.5 vs DET)
Sunday’s 6-pack:
Over last 120 years, players who hit 7+ triples, 6+ HR’s in a month:
1911— Frank Schilte
1914— Ed Lennox
1921— Ty Cobb
1929— Babe Herman
1957— Willie Mays
2025— Daylen Lile
Quote of the Day
“The main thing we need to do is to keep doing what we’re doing but do them better. Fundamentally we’re not doing the wrong things, we’re just not doing them well enough. It’s a lack of concentration, and part of that is coaching, too, so I’ll take my share of the responsibility.”
North Carolina coach Bill Belichick
Sunday’s quiz
Since 2021, which NFL team has the best record against the spread?
Saturday’s quiz
Jared Goff played his college football for the Cal Golden Bears.
Friday’s quiz
In the history of the Houston Oilers/Tennessee Titans, Warren Moon has thrown for the most yards.
*****************************************
Bruins, with an interim head coach, were 24.5-point underdogs.
UCLA led this game 27-7 at halftime.
Nico Iamaleava threw for 166 yards, 2 TD’s, ran for 128 yards, 3 TD’s.
— Miami 28, Florida State 22
Carson Beck threw for 240 yards, four TD’s
Hurricanes led 28-3 after three quarters, hung on for the win.
Miami was +3 in turnovers; they had 12 penalties for 98 yards.
— Florida 29, Texas 21
Florida gets its first I-A win in four tries.
Gators had scored total of 33 points in their three losses.
Texas is 0-2 on road, losing this game, also 14-7 at Ohio State.
— Alabama 30, Vanderbilt 14
Game was tied 14-14 at halftime.
Crimson Tide outgained Vandy, 486-333.
Alabama threw for 340 yards (11.0 Yards/attempt)
— UNLV 31, Wyoming 17
October 4th, and it snowed in Laramie, Wyoming.
5-0 Rebels led this game 24-3 at halftime.
UNLV ran for 153 yards, was +2 in turnovers.
— Upsets of the Day:
UCLA (+24.5) 42, Penn State 37
Ball State (+14.5) 20, Ohio U 14
Arkansas State (+13.5) 31, Texas State 30
Akron (+8.5) 28, Central Michigan 22
Virginia (+7.5) 30, Louisville 27 OT
Florida (+6.5) 29, Texas 21
Wake Forest (+6.5) 30, Virginia Tech 23
Temple (+6.5) 27, Tex-San Antonio 21
— Brewers 9, Cubs 3
Milwaukee scored six runs in the first inning.
Jackson Chourio had 3 RBI, but aggravated his leg injury.
Freddy Peralta got 17 outs, allowed two runs.
— Blue Jays 10, New York 1
Alejandro Kirk hit two home runs.
Leading 2-1, Blue Jays scored four runs in 7th, four more in 8th.
This was Toronto’s first win in a playoff game since 2016
— Dodgers 5, Phillies 3
Teoscar Hernandez hit a 3-run homer in the 7th inning.
Phillies led 3-0 after five innings.
Tyler Glasnow got 5 outs, in his first relief stint in seven years.
— Tigers 3, Mariners 2 (11)
Zack McKinstry had the game-winning single in the 11th inning.
Detroit used 8 pitchers; they were 2-8 with RISP.
McKinstry’s hit was Detroit’s only hit after the fifth inning.
— Famous birthdays, October 5th:
Trace Armstrong, 60
Jeff Lebo, 59
Rex Chapman, 58
Grant Hill, 53
Kate Winslet, 50
Jesse Palmer, 47
Travis Kelce, 36
Zack Littell, 30
Michael Hoecht, 28
— Virginia 30, Louisville 27 OT
Virginia led 24-14 after three quarters.
Louisville forced OT, kicked 50-yard FG with 1:08 left.
4-1 Louisville outgained the 5-1 Cavaliers, 383-237
— Clemson 38, North Carolina 10
Clemson’s first four drives: 16 plays, 253 yards, 28 points.
Tigers passed for 399 yards (10.2 yards/attempt)
North Carolina is 1-3 vs I-A teams, giving up 34-48-38 points in losses.
— Washington 24, Maryland 20
Maryland led this game 20-0 in the third quarter.
Washington’s last five drives: 45 plays, 298 yards, 24 points.
Maryland’s last four drives: 19 plays, 52 yards, no points.
— Appalachian State 27, Oregon State 23
App State led 17-0 in first quarter; they were +3 in turnovers.
Beavers outgained App State, 456-354.
Oregon State QB Murphy threw for 358 yards, 2 TD’s, 2 INTs
— Texas Tech 35, Houston 11
Tech QB Morton threw for 345 yards and a TD.
5-0 Red Raiders led 25-11 at halftime.
Tech outgained Houston, 552-267.
Over last 120 years, players who hit 7+ triples, 6+ HR’s in a month:
1911— Frank Schilte
1914— Ed Lennox
1921— Ty Cobb
1929— Babe Herman
1957— Willie Mays
2025— Daylen Lile
Quote of the Day
“The main thing we need to do is to keep doing what we’re doing but do them better. Fundamentally we’re not doing the wrong things, we’re just not doing them well enough. It’s a lack of concentration, and part of that is coaching, too, so I’ll take my share of the responsibility.”
North Carolina coach Bill Belichick
Sunday’s quiz
Since 2021, which NFL team has the best record against the spread?
Saturday’s quiz
Jared Goff played his college football for the Cal Golden Bears.
Friday’s quiz
In the history of the Houston Oilers/Tennessee Titans, Warren Moon has thrown for the most yards.
*****************************************
Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday…….
— UCLA 42, Penn State 37Bruins, with an interim head coach, were 24.5-point underdogs.
UCLA led this game 27-7 at halftime.
Nico Iamaleava threw for 166 yards, 2 TD’s, ran for 128 yards, 3 TD’s.
— Miami 28, Florida State 22
Carson Beck threw for 240 yards, four TD’s
Hurricanes led 28-3 after three quarters, hung on for the win.
Miami was +3 in turnovers; they had 12 penalties for 98 yards.
— Florida 29, Texas 21
Florida gets its first I-A win in four tries.
Gators had scored total of 33 points in their three losses.
Texas is 0-2 on road, losing this game, also 14-7 at Ohio State.
— Alabama 30, Vanderbilt 14
Game was tied 14-14 at halftime.
Crimson Tide outgained Vandy, 486-333.
Alabama threw for 340 yards (11.0 Yards/attempt)
— UNLV 31, Wyoming 17
October 4th, and it snowed in Laramie, Wyoming.
5-0 Rebels led this game 24-3 at halftime.
UNLV ran for 153 yards, was +2 in turnovers.
— Upsets of the Day:
UCLA (+24.5) 42, Penn State 37
Ball State (+14.5) 20, Ohio U 14
Arkansas State (+13.5) 31, Texas State 30
Akron (+8.5) 28, Central Michigan 22
Virginia (+7.5) 30, Louisville 27 OT
Florida (+6.5) 29, Texas 21
Wake Forest (+6.5) 30, Virginia Tech 23
Temple (+6.5) 27, Tex-San Antonio 21
— Brewers 9, Cubs 3
Milwaukee scored six runs in the first inning.
Jackson Chourio had 3 RBI, but aggravated his leg injury.
Freddy Peralta got 17 outs, allowed two runs.
— Blue Jays 10, New York 1
Alejandro Kirk hit two home runs.
Leading 2-1, Blue Jays scored four runs in 7th, four more in 8th.
This was Toronto’s first win in a playoff game since 2016
— Dodgers 5, Phillies 3
Teoscar Hernandez hit a 3-run homer in the 7th inning.
Phillies led 3-0 after five innings.
Tyler Glasnow got 5 outs, in his first relief stint in seven years.
— Tigers 3, Mariners 2 (11)
Zack McKinstry had the game-winning single in the 11th inning.
Detroit used 8 pitchers; they were 2-8 with RISP.
McKinstry’s hit was Detroit’s only hit after the fifth inning.
— Famous birthdays, October 5th:
Trace Armstrong, 60
Jeff Lebo, 59
Rex Chapman, 58
Grant Hill, 53
Kate Winslet, 50
Jesse Palmer, 47
Travis Kelce, 36
Zack Littell, 30
Michael Hoecht, 28
— Virginia 30, Louisville 27 OT
Virginia led 24-14 after three quarters.
Louisville forced OT, kicked 50-yard FG with 1:08 left.
4-1 Louisville outgained the 5-1 Cavaliers, 383-237
— Clemson 38, North Carolina 10
Clemson’s first four drives: 16 plays, 253 yards, 28 points.
Tigers passed for 399 yards (10.2 yards/attempt)
North Carolina is 1-3 vs I-A teams, giving up 34-48-38 points in losses.
— Washington 24, Maryland 20
Maryland led this game 20-0 in the third quarter.
Washington’s last five drives: 45 plays, 298 yards, 24 points.
Maryland’s last four drives: 19 plays, 52 yards, no points.
— Appalachian State 27, Oregon State 23
App State led 17-0 in first quarter; they were +3 in turnovers.
Beavers outgained App State, 456-354.
Oregon State QB Murphy threw for 358 yards, 2 TD’s, 2 INTs
— Texas Tech 35, Houston 11
Tech QB Morton threw for 345 yards and a TD.
5-0 Red Raiders led 25-11 at halftime.
Tech outgained Houston, 552-267.
NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 5
Sunday’s games
Browns vs Vikings (–3.5) (@ London)
Browns (1-3)
Rookie QB Gabriel is getting his first NFL start here.
Browns scored 16-17-13-10 points in their three games.
Cleveland is minus-6 in turnovers.
Browns are 5-10 ATS last 15 games coming off a loss.
Cleveland is 8-16-1 ATS last 25 games as a road underdog.
Browns have held opponents to 141-242-230-277 total yards.
Browns ran ball for 49-96-79 yards in losses, 115 in their one win.
Stefanski is 42-49 as a head coach.
Last 5+ years, Cleveland is 15-10-1 ATS vs NFC teams.
AFC North teams are 4-8 ATS in non-divisional games.
Vikings (2-2)
Vikings lost 41-21 in Ireland LW, now they’re in England.
Vikings are +5 in turnovers in wins, minus-5 in losses.
Backup QB Wentz is 48-48-1 as an NFL starter, for five different teams.
O’Connell is 36-21 as an NFL head coach.
Under O’Connell, Vikings are 19-13-3 ATS as a favorite.
Minnesota is 6-8-1 ATS in last 15 games coming off a loss.
Minnesota is 10-4-2 ATS in last 16 games vs AFC teams.
Under O’Connell, Vikings are 27-9 SU in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
NFC North teams are 5-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Vikings won three of last five meetings.
Three of last four series games went over the total.
Texans (–1.5) @ Ravens
Texans (1-3)
Texans won 26-0 LW, after losing their first three games.
Texans held three of four opponents under 300 TY.
Houston has converted only 14-48 third down plays.
QB Stroud is 22-18 as an NFL starter.
Ryans is 23-19 in 2+ years as an NFL head coach.
Since 2016, Texans are 4-10-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Ryans, Texans are 9-11 ATS games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Houston is 4-6 ATS in last ten games coming off a loss.
AFC South teams are 5-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Ravens (1-3)
QB Jackson (hamstring) left early last week; check status.
Ravens gave up 41-38-37 points in their three losses.
Ravens are giving up 406.8 yards/game.
Ravens are 1-3, despite scoring 40-41-30-20 points.
Baltimore is 8-2 ATS last ten games coming off a loss.
QB Jackson is 74-32 as an NFL starter
Backup QB Rush is 9-5 as an NFL starter
John Harbaugh is 186-118 as an NFL head coach.
Since 2019, Baltimore is 6-1 ATS as a home underdog.
Ravens are 20-8 ATS in last 28 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
AFC North teams are 4-8 ATS in non-divisional games.
Baltimore won last six series games, covered last five.
Texans are 0-8 SU/3-5 ATS in last eight visits to Baltimore.
Under is 6-2 in last eight meetings.
Giants @ Saints (-1.5)
Giants (1-3)
Giants won 21-18 LW, in rookie QB Dart’s first start.
Dart threw for 111 yards, ran for 55 more in that game.
Giants are 5-8-1 ATS in last 14 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Daboll is 20-36-1 as an NFL head coach.
Giants gained 281 or fewer yards in three of four games.
Under Daboll, Giants are 13-11 ATS as a road underdog
Under Daboll, Giants are 10-6-1 ATS in games coming off a win.
Giants were 7-15 on 3rd down LW (10-40 first three games).
NFC East teams are 6-4 ATS in non-divisional games.
Saints (0-4)
Saints lost first four games, 20-13/26-21/44-13/31-19.
Saints have converted only 17-49 third down plays.
New Orleans has been outscored 85-33 in first half of games.
Since 2021, Saints are 7-9-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Kellen Moore is 0-4 as a head coach.
Rattler is 0-10 as an NFL starting QB.
Saints are 7-15 ATS in last 22 games coming off a loss.
Saints are 8-14-2 ATS games last 24 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
NFC South teams are 5-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
Saints won seven of last ten meetings.
Giants are 1-5 SU/1-4-1 ATS in last six visits to Bourbon Street.
Under is 4-1 in last five series games.
Broncos @ Eagles (-3.5)
Broncos (2-2)
Denver is 0-2 on road, losing 29-28 Colts/23-20 Chargers.
Denver allowed 12-3 points in its two wins.
QB Nix is 12-10 as an NFL starter.
Payton is 181-116 as an NFL head coach, 20-19 with Denver.
LW, Denver ran for 186 yards, outgained Bengals 512-159
Under Payton, Denver is 6-9 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Payton, Denver is 9-9 ATS in games coming off a win.
Broncos are 12-8 ATS in last 20 games vs NFC teams.
AFC West teams are 5-5 ATS in divisional games.
Eagles (4-0)
Eagles are 4-0, with wins by 4-3-7-6 points.
Last three games, Eagles were held to 216-288-200 total yards.
QB Hurts is 55-23 as an NFL starter.
Sirianni is 57-23 as an NFL coach.
Philly is 7-9-1 ATS in last 17 games as a home favorite.
Philly is 24-16-2 ATS in last 42 games coming off a win.
Last three games, opponents converted only 10-35 third down plays.
Eagles are 10-5-1 ATS in last 16 games vs AFC teams.
NFC East non-divisional favorites are 4-2 ATS
Philly DC Fangio was Denver’s HC from 2019-21 (19-30)
Eagles won three of last four series games.
Broncos lost 51-23/30-27 in last two visits to Philly.
Over is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Cowboys (–2.5) @ Jets
Cowboys (1-2-1)
Dallas allowed 37-31-40 points in its last three games.
Dallas scored 20-14 in its losses, 40-40 in win/tie.
Cowboys lost their road games (24-20 Eagles/31-14 Bears)
QB Prescott is 79-53-1 as an NFL starter.
Brian Schottenheimer is 1-2-1 as a head coach.
Last three weeks, Dallas allowed 506-385-489 total yards.
Since 2021, Cowboys are 11-6 ATS as a road favorite.
Cowboys are 8-7 ATS last 15 games vs AFC teams.
Dallas is minus-4 in turnovers this season.
Dallas is 4-7 ATS last 11 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
NFC East teams are 6-4 ATS in non-divisional games.
Jets (0-4)
Jets lost first four games, giving up 34-30-29-27 points.
Jets’ losses are by 2-20-2-6 points. (opponents over 4-0 team total)
Fields is 14-33 as an NFL starter.
Aaron Glenn is 0-4 as a head coach.
In three games, Jets are minus-7 in turnovers.
Jets are 10-16 ATS in last 26 games as a home underdog.
Jets are 6-18-1 ATS last 25 games vs NFC teams.
Jets are 8-15-1 ATS in last 24 games coming off a loss.
Jets are 8-16-1 ATS last 25 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Jets won three of last four series games.
Dallas lost 24-22/27-24 in last two meetings played here.
Over is 3-1 in last four series games.
Raiders @ Colts (-6.5)
Raiders (1-3)
Raiders lost last three games, giving up 20-41-25 points.
Raiders ran ball for 240 yards LW (total of 217 yards/1st 3 games).
QB Geno Smith is 41-47 as an NFL starter.
Carroll is 182-134-1 as an NFL head coach.
Las Vegas outgained Bears 357-271 LW, lost on a blocked FG.
Since 2019, Raiders are 22-17 ATS as a road underdog.
Las Vegas is 20-25-1 ATS in last 46 games coming off a loss.
Last two games, Raiders converted only 5-22 third down plays.
AFC West teams are 5-5 ATS in divisional games.
Colts (3-1)
Colts are 2-0 at home, scoring 33-29 points.
Colts were minus-2 in turnovers LW (+5/first 3 games)
QB Jones is 28-46-1 is as an NFL starter.
Steichen is 20-18 SU in 2+ years as a head coach
Under Steichen, Indy is 6-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Steichen, Indy is 9-7 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Last two games, Colts converted 6-20 third down plays.
AFC South teams are 5-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Colts are 8-3 SU/5-6 ATS in last eleven meetings.
Raiders are 3-3 SU/5-1 ATS in last six visits to Indy.
Six of last seven series games went over the total.
Dolphins (–1.5) @ Panthers
Dolphins (1-3)
Short week for Miami after getting first win Monday night.
Dolphins are 0-2 on road (33-8 Colts/31-21 Bills)
QB Tagovailoa is 39-28 as an NFL starter.
McDaniel is 29-28 as a head coach.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 6-3 ATS as a road favorite.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 9-12-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 14-13 ATS in games coming off a win.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 7-8 ATS vs NFC teams.
AFC East teams are 4-4 ATS in non-divisional games.
Panthers (1-3)
Carolina blanked Atlanta 30-0 in its only home game.
Panthers are 0-3 on road, giving up 31.7 ppg.
QB Young is 7-25 as an NFL starter.
Canales is 6-15 as a head coach.
Under Canales, Panthers are 5-3 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Canales, Carolina is 8-6 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Carolina is 7-15 ATS in last 22 games vs AFC opponents.
Last three games, Panthers converted 13-39 third down plays.
NFC South teams are 5-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
Miami won five of last seven series games.
Teams split last two meetings in Charlotte.
Over is 3-1 in last four series games.
Buccaneers @ Seahawks (-3.5)
Buccaneers (3-1)
Tampa Bay is 2-0 on road, with wins by 1-3 points..
Last two games, Buccaneers converted only 7-25 third down plays.
Mayfield is 55-57 as an NFL starter, 23-18 with the Bucs.
Bowles is 57-69 as a head coach, 31-28 with Tampa Bay.
Tampa Bay is 12-2 ATS last 14 games as a road underdog.
Bucs held their opponents to 69-84-99-88 rushing yards.
Bucs held last three foes to 267 or fewer total yards.
Bucs are 10-3-1 ATS in last 14 games coming off a loss.
NFC South teams are 5-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
Seahawks (2-2)
Seahawks won last three games, scoring 31-44-23 points.
Darnold is 38-40 as an NFL starter.
Seahawks are his 4th team the last four years.
MacDonald is 13-8 as a head coach.
Seattle held last three opponents to 284 or fewer total yards.
Seattle is 7-12-1 ATS in last 20 games as a home favorite.
Since 2020, Seattle is 17-22-3 ATS in games coming off a win.
Opponents’ team total: under 4-0
NFC West teams are 7-3 ATS in non-divisional games.
Tampa Bay won five of last seven series games.
Buccaneers are 1-3 SU/2-2 ATS in last four visits to Seattle.
Home team won last five meetings.
Under is 7-3 in last ten series games.
Titans @ Cardinals (-7.5)
Titans (0-4)
Tennessee is 0-4 SU/ATS, losing by 8-14-21-26 points.
Rookie QB Ward is 0-4 as an NFL starter.
Callahan is 3-18 as an NFL head coach.
Titans switched play callers last week, not ideal in Week 4.
Titans have three TD’s, 10 FG’s on their 44 drives.
Titans were outgained by 184-187-83-168 yards in their games.
Last 4+ years, Tennessee is 12-16-2 ATS coming off a loss.
Titans are 3-12 ATS in last 14 games as an underdog.
Titans are 0-6 ATS in last six games vs NFC teams.
Cardinals (2-1)
Cardinals lost last two games by total of four points.
Last three games, Cardinals converted only 14-39 third down plays.
Murray is 38-48-1 as an NFL starter.
Gannon is 14-24 in 2+ years as a head coach.
Cardinals have gained 293 or fewer yards in all four games.
Under Gannon, Arizona is 3-4 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Gannon, Arizona is 8-2 ATS vs AFC teams.
Arizona is 14-9 ATS in last 23 games coming off a loss.
Cardinals won/covered four of last five series games.
Titans lost 12-7/20-10 in last two visits to Arizona.
Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Commanders @ Chargers (-2.5)
Commanders (2-2)
Home team has won/covered all four Washington games.
Washington is 0-2 on road: 27-18 Packers/34-27 Falcons.
QB Daniels is 15-7 as an NFL starter (check status).
Backup QB Mariota has a 37-42 record.
Quinn is 62-52 as an NFL coach.
In its wins, Commanders ran ball for 220-201 yards.
Under Quinn, Commanders are 1-4 ATS as a road underdog.
Opponents have converted only 13 of 48 third down plays.
Under Quinn, Commanders are 4-2 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Washington is 10-6 ATS last 16 games vs AFC opponents
Commanders are 6-3 ATS last nine games with a spread of 3 or fewer points.
Chargers (3-1)
Chargers won their only home game, 23-20 over Denver.
Bolts held last three opponents to 218-265-250 total yards.
QB Herbert is 44-41 as an NFL starter.
Jim Harbaugh is 63-30-1 as an NFL head coach.
Under Harbaugh, Chargers are 5-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Chargers are 12-10-2 ATS last 24 games vs NFC teams.
Under Harbaugh, Chargers are 6-1 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Chargers have converted 23-53 third down plays.
AFC West teams are 5-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Chargers are 5-1 SU/4-1-1 ATS in last six series games.
Washington is 0-3 SU/0-2-1 ATS in last three road series games.
Under is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Lions (–10.5) @ Bengals
Lions (3-1)
Lions won last three games, scoring 52-38-34 points.
Detroit is +5 in turnovers in its last three games..
QB Goff is 88-58-1 as an NFL starter, 46-31-1 with Detroit.
Campbell is 50-38-1 as an NFL head coach.
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Lions are 11-2 ATS last 13 games as a road favorite.
Detroit is 15-7 ATS in last 22 games vs AFC teams
Detroit is 24-11 ATS last 35 games coming off a win.
Detroit has two new coordinators this season.
NFC North teams are 5-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Bengals (2-2)
Bengals lost last two games, by a combined 76-13.
Last two games, Cincinnati was outgained, 864-330.
Bengals won their only game, 31-27 over the Jaguars.
Backup QB Browning is 4-5 as an NFL starter (7 starts in 2023).
Taylor is 53-56-1 as a head coach.
Last three games, Cincinnati is minus-5 in turnovers.
In four games, Bengals have run ball 76 times for only 200 yards.
Bengals are 7-5-1 ATS last 13 games as home underdogs.
Bengals are 22-14-1 ATS last 37 coming off a loss.
AFC North teams are 4-8 ATS in divisional games.
Bengals are 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS in last six series games.
Lions lost 26-17/23-13 in last two visits to Cincinnati.
Under is 3-1 in last four meetings.
Patriots @ Bills (-7.5)
Patriots (2-2)
Patriots scored 33-42 points in wins, 13-14 in losses.
Patriots won only road game, 33-27 at Miami.
QB Maye is 5-11 as an NFL starter.
Vrabel is 58-50 as an NFL head coach.
Patriots are 9-12-1 ATS last 22 games as a road underdog.
NE is 7-6 ATS in last 13 AFC East road games.
NE is 5-8-2 ATS in last 15 games coming off a win.
Opponents’ team total; under 3-1.
Since start of 2023 season, patriots are minus-26 in turnovers.
Bills (4-0)
Buffalo won its first four games,. scoring 41-30-31-31 points.
Bills are 12-13-1 ATS last 26 games as a home favorite.
QB Allen is 87-40 as an NFL starter.
McDermott is 96-52 as an NFL head coach.
Buffalo held last three opponents to 154-276-298 total yards.
Bills are 4-5-1 ATS last 10 AFC East home games.
Buffalo is 10-7 ATS in last seventeen games coming off a win.
NFL-wide, home favorites are 8-6 ATS in divisional games.
Bills are 4-3 SU in last seven series games.
Patriots are 1-5 SU/4-2 ATS in last six visits to Buffalo.
Over is 7-3 in last ten series games.
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 5
Sunday’s games
Browns vs Vikings (–3.5) (@ London)
Browns (1-3)
Rookie QB Gabriel is getting his first NFL start here.
Browns scored 16-17-13-10 points in their three games.
Cleveland is minus-6 in turnovers.
Browns are 5-10 ATS last 15 games coming off a loss.
Cleveland is 8-16-1 ATS last 25 games as a road underdog.
Browns have held opponents to 141-242-230-277 total yards.
Browns ran ball for 49-96-79 yards in losses, 115 in their one win.
Stefanski is 42-49 as a head coach.
Last 5+ years, Cleveland is 15-10-1 ATS vs NFC teams.
AFC North teams are 4-8 ATS in non-divisional games.
Vikings (2-2)
Vikings lost 41-21 in Ireland LW, now they’re in England.
Vikings are +5 in turnovers in wins, minus-5 in losses.
Backup QB Wentz is 48-48-1 as an NFL starter, for five different teams.
O’Connell is 36-21 as an NFL head coach.
Under O’Connell, Vikings are 19-13-3 ATS as a favorite.
Minnesota is 6-8-1 ATS in last 15 games coming off a loss.
Minnesota is 10-4-2 ATS in last 16 games vs AFC teams.
Under O’Connell, Vikings are 27-9 SU in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
NFC North teams are 5-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Vikings won three of last five meetings.
Three of last four series games went over the total.
Texans (–1.5) @ Ravens
Texans (1-3)
Texans won 26-0 LW, after losing their first three games.
Texans held three of four opponents under 300 TY.
Houston has converted only 14-48 third down plays.
QB Stroud is 22-18 as an NFL starter.
Ryans is 23-19 in 2+ years as an NFL head coach.
Since 2016, Texans are 4-10-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Ryans, Texans are 9-11 ATS games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Houston is 4-6 ATS in last ten games coming off a loss.
AFC South teams are 5-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Ravens (1-3)
QB Jackson (hamstring) left early last week; check status.
Ravens gave up 41-38-37 points in their three losses.
Ravens are giving up 406.8 yards/game.
Ravens are 1-3, despite scoring 40-41-30-20 points.
Baltimore is 8-2 ATS last ten games coming off a loss.
QB Jackson is 74-32 as an NFL starter
Backup QB Rush is 9-5 as an NFL starter
John Harbaugh is 186-118 as an NFL head coach.
Since 2019, Baltimore is 6-1 ATS as a home underdog.
Ravens are 20-8 ATS in last 28 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
AFC North teams are 4-8 ATS in non-divisional games.
Baltimore won last six series games, covered last five.
Texans are 0-8 SU/3-5 ATS in last eight visits to Baltimore.
Under is 6-2 in last eight meetings.
Giants @ Saints (-1.5)
Giants (1-3)
Giants won 21-18 LW, in rookie QB Dart’s first start.
Dart threw for 111 yards, ran for 55 more in that game.
Giants are 5-8-1 ATS in last 14 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Daboll is 20-36-1 as an NFL head coach.
Giants gained 281 or fewer yards in three of four games.
Under Daboll, Giants are 13-11 ATS as a road underdog
Under Daboll, Giants are 10-6-1 ATS in games coming off a win.
Giants were 7-15 on 3rd down LW (10-40 first three games).
NFC East teams are 6-4 ATS in non-divisional games.
Saints (0-4)
Saints lost first four games, 20-13/26-21/44-13/31-19.
Saints have converted only 17-49 third down plays.
New Orleans has been outscored 85-33 in first half of games.
Since 2021, Saints are 7-9-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Kellen Moore is 0-4 as a head coach.
Rattler is 0-10 as an NFL starting QB.
Saints are 7-15 ATS in last 22 games coming off a loss.
Saints are 8-14-2 ATS games last 24 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
NFC South teams are 5-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
Saints won seven of last ten meetings.
Giants are 1-5 SU/1-4-1 ATS in last six visits to Bourbon Street.
Under is 4-1 in last five series games.
Broncos @ Eagles (-3.5)
Broncos (2-2)
Denver is 0-2 on road, losing 29-28 Colts/23-20 Chargers.
Denver allowed 12-3 points in its two wins.
QB Nix is 12-10 as an NFL starter.
Payton is 181-116 as an NFL head coach, 20-19 with Denver.
LW, Denver ran for 186 yards, outgained Bengals 512-159
Under Payton, Denver is 6-9 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Payton, Denver is 9-9 ATS in games coming off a win.
Broncos are 12-8 ATS in last 20 games vs NFC teams.
AFC West teams are 5-5 ATS in divisional games.
Eagles (4-0)
Eagles are 4-0, with wins by 4-3-7-6 points.
Last three games, Eagles were held to 216-288-200 total yards.
QB Hurts is 55-23 as an NFL starter.
Sirianni is 57-23 as an NFL coach.
Philly is 7-9-1 ATS in last 17 games as a home favorite.
Philly is 24-16-2 ATS in last 42 games coming off a win.
Last three games, opponents converted only 10-35 third down plays.
Eagles are 10-5-1 ATS in last 16 games vs AFC teams.
NFC East non-divisional favorites are 4-2 ATS
Philly DC Fangio was Denver’s HC from 2019-21 (19-30)
Eagles won three of last four series games.
Broncos lost 51-23/30-27 in last two visits to Philly.
Over is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Cowboys (–2.5) @ Jets
Cowboys (1-2-1)
Dallas allowed 37-31-40 points in its last three games.
Dallas scored 20-14 in its losses, 40-40 in win/tie.
Cowboys lost their road games (24-20 Eagles/31-14 Bears)
QB Prescott is 79-53-1 as an NFL starter.
Brian Schottenheimer is 1-2-1 as a head coach.
Last three weeks, Dallas allowed 506-385-489 total yards.
Since 2021, Cowboys are 11-6 ATS as a road favorite.
Cowboys are 8-7 ATS last 15 games vs AFC teams.
Dallas is minus-4 in turnovers this season.
Dallas is 4-7 ATS last 11 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
NFC East teams are 6-4 ATS in non-divisional games.
Jets (0-4)
Jets lost first four games, giving up 34-30-29-27 points.
Jets’ losses are by 2-20-2-6 points. (opponents over 4-0 team total)
Fields is 14-33 as an NFL starter.
Aaron Glenn is 0-4 as a head coach.
In three games, Jets are minus-7 in turnovers.
Jets are 10-16 ATS in last 26 games as a home underdog.
Jets are 6-18-1 ATS last 25 games vs NFC teams.
Jets are 8-15-1 ATS in last 24 games coming off a loss.
Jets are 8-16-1 ATS last 25 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Jets won three of last four series games.
Dallas lost 24-22/27-24 in last two meetings played here.
Over is 3-1 in last four series games.
Raiders @ Colts (-6.5)
Raiders (1-3)
Raiders lost last three games, giving up 20-41-25 points.
Raiders ran ball for 240 yards LW (total of 217 yards/1st 3 games).
QB Geno Smith is 41-47 as an NFL starter.
Carroll is 182-134-1 as an NFL head coach.
Las Vegas outgained Bears 357-271 LW, lost on a blocked FG.
Since 2019, Raiders are 22-17 ATS as a road underdog.
Las Vegas is 20-25-1 ATS in last 46 games coming off a loss.
Last two games, Raiders converted only 5-22 third down plays.
AFC West teams are 5-5 ATS in divisional games.
Colts (3-1)
Colts are 2-0 at home, scoring 33-29 points.
Colts were minus-2 in turnovers LW (+5/first 3 games)
QB Jones is 28-46-1 is as an NFL starter.
Steichen is 20-18 SU in 2+ years as a head coach
Under Steichen, Indy is 6-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Steichen, Indy is 9-7 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Last two games, Colts converted 6-20 third down plays.
AFC South teams are 5-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Colts are 8-3 SU/5-6 ATS in last eleven meetings.
Raiders are 3-3 SU/5-1 ATS in last six visits to Indy.
Six of last seven series games went over the total.
Dolphins (–1.5) @ Panthers
Dolphins (1-3)
Short week for Miami after getting first win Monday night.
Dolphins are 0-2 on road (33-8 Colts/31-21 Bills)
QB Tagovailoa is 39-28 as an NFL starter.
McDaniel is 29-28 as a head coach.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 6-3 ATS as a road favorite.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 9-12-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 14-13 ATS in games coming off a win.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 7-8 ATS vs NFC teams.
AFC East teams are 4-4 ATS in non-divisional games.
Panthers (1-3)
Carolina blanked Atlanta 30-0 in its only home game.
Panthers are 0-3 on road, giving up 31.7 ppg.
QB Young is 7-25 as an NFL starter.
Canales is 6-15 as a head coach.
Under Canales, Panthers are 5-3 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Canales, Carolina is 8-6 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Carolina is 7-15 ATS in last 22 games vs AFC opponents.
Last three games, Panthers converted 13-39 third down plays.
NFC South teams are 5-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
Miami won five of last seven series games.
Teams split last two meetings in Charlotte.
Over is 3-1 in last four series games.
Buccaneers @ Seahawks (-3.5)
Buccaneers (3-1)
Tampa Bay is 2-0 on road, with wins by 1-3 points..
Last two games, Buccaneers converted only 7-25 third down plays.
Mayfield is 55-57 as an NFL starter, 23-18 with the Bucs.
Bowles is 57-69 as a head coach, 31-28 with Tampa Bay.
Tampa Bay is 12-2 ATS last 14 games as a road underdog.
Bucs held their opponents to 69-84-99-88 rushing yards.
Bucs held last three foes to 267 or fewer total yards.
Bucs are 10-3-1 ATS in last 14 games coming off a loss.
NFC South teams are 5-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
Seahawks (2-2)
Seahawks won last three games, scoring 31-44-23 points.
Darnold is 38-40 as an NFL starter.
Seahawks are his 4th team the last four years.
MacDonald is 13-8 as a head coach.
Seattle held last three opponents to 284 or fewer total yards.
Seattle is 7-12-1 ATS in last 20 games as a home favorite.
Since 2020, Seattle is 17-22-3 ATS in games coming off a win.
Opponents’ team total: under 4-0
NFC West teams are 7-3 ATS in non-divisional games.
Tampa Bay won five of last seven series games.
Buccaneers are 1-3 SU/2-2 ATS in last four visits to Seattle.
Home team won last five meetings.
Under is 7-3 in last ten series games.
Titans @ Cardinals (-7.5)
Titans (0-4)
Tennessee is 0-4 SU/ATS, losing by 8-14-21-26 points.
Rookie QB Ward is 0-4 as an NFL starter.
Callahan is 3-18 as an NFL head coach.
Titans switched play callers last week, not ideal in Week 4.
Titans have three TD’s, 10 FG’s on their 44 drives.
Titans were outgained by 184-187-83-168 yards in their games.
Last 4+ years, Tennessee is 12-16-2 ATS coming off a loss.
Titans are 3-12 ATS in last 14 games as an underdog.
Titans are 0-6 ATS in last six games vs NFC teams.
Cardinals (2-1)
Cardinals lost last two games by total of four points.
Last three games, Cardinals converted only 14-39 third down plays.
Murray is 38-48-1 as an NFL starter.
Gannon is 14-24 in 2+ years as a head coach.
Cardinals have gained 293 or fewer yards in all four games.
Under Gannon, Arizona is 3-4 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Gannon, Arizona is 8-2 ATS vs AFC teams.
Arizona is 14-9 ATS in last 23 games coming off a loss.
Cardinals won/covered four of last five series games.
Titans lost 12-7/20-10 in last two visits to Arizona.
Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Commanders @ Chargers (-2.5)
Commanders (2-2)
Home team has won/covered all four Washington games.
Washington is 0-2 on road: 27-18 Packers/34-27 Falcons.
QB Daniels is 15-7 as an NFL starter (check status).
Backup QB Mariota has a 37-42 record.
Quinn is 62-52 as an NFL coach.
In its wins, Commanders ran ball for 220-201 yards.
Under Quinn, Commanders are 1-4 ATS as a road underdog.
Opponents have converted only 13 of 48 third down plays.
Under Quinn, Commanders are 4-2 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Washington is 10-6 ATS last 16 games vs AFC opponents
Commanders are 6-3 ATS last nine games with a spread of 3 or fewer points.
Chargers (3-1)
Chargers won their only home game, 23-20 over Denver.
Bolts held last three opponents to 218-265-250 total yards.
QB Herbert is 44-41 as an NFL starter.
Jim Harbaugh is 63-30-1 as an NFL head coach.
Under Harbaugh, Chargers are 5-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Chargers are 12-10-2 ATS last 24 games vs NFC teams.
Under Harbaugh, Chargers are 6-1 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Chargers have converted 23-53 third down plays.
AFC West teams are 5-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Chargers are 5-1 SU/4-1-1 ATS in last six series games.
Washington is 0-3 SU/0-2-1 ATS in last three road series games.
Under is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Lions (–10.5) @ Bengals
Lions (3-1)
Lions won last three games, scoring 52-38-34 points.
Detroit is +5 in turnovers in its last three games..
QB Goff is 88-58-1 as an NFL starter, 46-31-1 with Detroit.
Campbell is 50-38-1 as an NFL head coach.
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Lions are 11-2 ATS last 13 games as a road favorite.
Detroit is 15-7 ATS in last 22 games vs AFC teams
Detroit is 24-11 ATS last 35 games coming off a win.
Detroit has two new coordinators this season.
NFC North teams are 5-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Bengals (2-2)
Bengals lost last two games, by a combined 76-13.
Last two games, Cincinnati was outgained, 864-330.
Bengals won their only game, 31-27 over the Jaguars.
Backup QB Browning is 4-5 as an NFL starter (7 starts in 2023).
Taylor is 53-56-1 as a head coach.
Last three games, Cincinnati is minus-5 in turnovers.
In four games, Bengals have run ball 76 times for only 200 yards.
Bengals are 7-5-1 ATS last 13 games as home underdogs.
Bengals are 22-14-1 ATS last 37 coming off a loss.
AFC North teams are 4-8 ATS in divisional games.
Bengals are 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS in last six series games.
Lions lost 26-17/23-13 in last two visits to Cincinnati.
Under is 3-1 in last four meetings.
Patriots @ Bills (-7.5)
Patriots (2-2)
Patriots scored 33-42 points in wins, 13-14 in losses.
Patriots won only road game, 33-27 at Miami.
QB Maye is 5-11 as an NFL starter.
Vrabel is 58-50 as an NFL head coach.
Patriots are 9-12-1 ATS last 22 games as a road underdog.
NE is 7-6 ATS in last 13 AFC East road games.
NE is 5-8-2 ATS in last 15 games coming off a win.
Opponents’ team total; under 3-1.
Since start of 2023 season, patriots are minus-26 in turnovers.
Bills (4-0)
Buffalo won its first four games,. scoring 41-30-31-31 points.
Bills are 12-13-1 ATS last 26 games as a home favorite.
QB Allen is 87-40 as an NFL starter.
McDermott is 96-52 as an NFL head coach.
Buffalo held last three opponents to 154-276-298 total yards.
Bills are 4-5-1 ATS last 10 AFC East home games.
Buffalo is 10-7 ATS in last seventeen games coming off a win.
NFL-wide, home favorites are 8-6 ATS in divisional games.
Bills are 4-3 SU in last seven series games.
Patriots are 1-5 SU/4-2 ATS in last six visits to Buffalo.
Over is 7-3 in last ten series games.
2025 WESTGATE LAS VEGAS NFL SUPERCONTEST
| SUPERCONTEST LEADERS STANDINGS & SELECTIONS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SUPERCONTEST WEEK 5: 10/01/25 – 10/07/25 | |||||
| SUPERCONTEST WEEK 5 LINES/ODDS | BY # OF TEAMS | ||||
| RAMS | -7.5 | vs. | 49ERS | LAC 263 | MIA 117 |
| Vikings | -3.5 | vs. | Browns | NYJ 246 | DAL 112 |
| Dolphins | -1 | vs. | PANTHERS | DEN 222 | HOU 112 |
| Cowboys | -2.5 | vs. | NY JETS | IND 207 | BAL 102 |
| COLTS | -6.5 | vs. | Raiders | NE 188 | ARI 91 |
| EAGLES | -3.5 | vs. | Broncos | DET 183 | LV 87 |
| SAINTS | -2 | vs. | NY Giants | SEA 167 | WAS 81 |
| Texans | -1 | vs. | RAVENS | NO 158 | TEN 79 |
| CARDINALS | -7.5 | vs. | Titans | JAX 156 | BUF 70 |
| SEAHAWKS | -3.5 | vs. | Buccaneers | KC 153 | CIN 60 |
| Lions | -10 | vs. | BENGALS | PHI 148 | LAR 51 |
| CHARGERS | -2.5 | vs. | Commanders | TB 145 | SF 26 |
| BILLS | -8 | vs. | Patriots | NYG 132 | CHI 0 |
| Chiefs | -3.5 | vs. | JAGUARS | CLE 129 | ATL 0 |
| MIN 128 | GB 0 | ||||
| CAR 122 | PIT 0 | ||||
| CAPS -> HOME | TOP 5 LW: 2-3 | YTD: 11-15-1 | |||
| TEAM | W | L | T | LW | PTS |
| BIFFS ALMANAC | 17 | 3 | 0 | 17 | |
| WK 5 PKS | CLE | NYJ | BAL | TB | BUF |
| PERSIAN PRINCESS | 16 | 4 | 0 | 16 | |
| WK 5 PKS | MIN | LV | DEN | NO | KC |
| SEANSDOLPHINS5 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 16 | |
| WK 5 PKS | CAR | NYJ | NO | SEA | JAX |
| FARELLA1 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 16 | |
| WK 5 PKS | DEN | BAL | TB | DET | LAC |
| $JAR3 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 16 | |
| WK 5 PKS | NYJ | TEN | TB | LAC | NE |
| BRETTEFAVRE444 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 15 | |
| WK 5 PKS | CLE | NYJ | HOU | LAC | NE |
| DR M | 15 | 5 | 0 | 15 | |
| WK 5 PKS | IND | PHI | SEA | DET | LAC |
| NORTH OF THE WALL | 15 | 5 | 0 | 15 | |
| WK 5 PKS | NYJ | PHI | NO | HOU | SEA |
| HEATWAVE | 15 | 5 | 0 | 15 | |
| WK 5 PKS | DAL | LV | SEA | DET | KC |
| SEANSHOLPHINS1 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 15 | |
| WK 5 PKS | CAR | NYJ | DEN | NO | NE |
Sunday, October 5
| Game | Time(ET) | Pick | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL at NYJ | 01:00 PM | NYJ +1.0 | +500 |
| MIA at CAR | 01:00 PM | MIA -1.0 U 44.5 | +500 +500 |
| LV at IND | 01:00 PM | U 47.5 | +500 |
| DEN at PHI | 01:00 PM | PHI -4.0 U 44.5 | +500 +500 |
| HOU at BAL | 01:00 PM | BAL +1.0 U 41.0 | +500 +500 |
| NYG at NO | 01:00 PM | NYG +2.5 U 42.0 | +500 +500 |
| TB at SEA | 04:05 PM | TB +3.5 O 44.5 | +500 +500 |
| TEN at ARI | 04:05 PM | ARI -7.5 O 41.5 | +500 +500 |
| WAS at LAC | 04:25 PM | WAS +3.0 U 48.0 | +500 +500 |
| DET at CIN | 04:25 PM | DET -10.5 U 49.5 | +500 +500 |
| NE at BUF | 08:20 PM | NE +8.0 U 48.5 | +500 +500 |
CNOTES NFL BEST BETS FOR OCTOBER !
10/05/2025......................9 - 3 - 0.........................75.00%....................+ 28.50
10/02/2025......................1 - 1 - 0.........................50.00%....................- 0.50
TOTALS..........................10 - 4 -- 0........................71.42%......................+ 28.00
10/05/2025......................9 - 3 - 0.........................75.00%....................+ 28.50
10/02/2025......................1 - 1 - 0.........................50.00%....................- 0.50
TOTALS..........................10 - 4 -- 0........................71.42%......................+ 28.00
Monday’s 6-pack:
Week 6 NFL spreads:
— Eagles (-7.5) @ Giants
— Broncos (-7.5) vs Jets (@ London)
— Browns @ Pittsburgh (-5.5)
— Chargers (-5.5) @ Miami
— Cardinals @ Indianapolis (-5.5)
— Seahawks @ Jacksonville (-1.5)
Quote of the Day
“I don’t really know what to think about that. I don’t even know. I really don’t even know. That’s ‘How to Lose a Game 101.’ I don’t know. It was crazy.”
Cardinals’ QB Kyler Murray
Monday’s quiz
Last time Toronto Blue Jays won a playoff series was 2016; who did they beat?
Sunday’s quiz
Since 2021, Detroit Lions have the NFL’s best record against the spread (51-22)
Saturday’s quiz
Jared Goff played his college football for the Cal Golden Bears.
*************************************************
Arizona led 21-6 with 13:00 left; RB Demercado appeared to run for a 72-yard TD to salt the game away, but he dropped the ball just before he crossed the goal line; it became a touchback.
Arizona’s first four drives: 22 plays, 173 yards, 21 points.
Arizona rest of game: 42 plays, 185 yards, no points.
Cardinals lost their last three games by total of five points.
Rookie QB Ward threw for 265 yards in his first NFL win.
Titans’ last three drives: 25 plays, 205 yards, TD-INT-FG
WR Ridley caught five passes for 131 yards.
Tennessee also scored a TD when Arizona picked off a Ward pass with 5:00 left, but the guy fumbled and the Titans recovered it in the end zone for a TD.
Broncos 21, Eagles 17
Eagles led 17-3 after the third quarter.
Broncos in first 3 quarters: 45 plays, 171 yards, 3 points.
Denver in 4th quarter: 27 plays, 190 yards, 18 points.
Down 17-10, Denver scored a TD with 7:36 left; they went for 2 points and the lead, and made it, talking the lead for good.
Eagles’ last five drives: 20 plays, 54 yards, no points.
Eagles are 4-1, but they’ve been outgained in all five games.
Philly converted 2-11 third down plays, Broncos 5-16.
Philly is 7-10-1 ATS in last 18 games as a home favorite.
Buccaneers 38, Seahawks 35
Buccaneers kicked a 39-yard FG at the gun for a walk-off win.
Tampa Bay is 3-0 on road, with wins by 1-3-3 points.
Tampa Bay is 13-2 ATS last 15 games as a road underdog.
Mayfield threw for 379 yards, two TD’s.
Both teams averaged 10+ yards/pass attempt.
Seahawks’ first 3 drives: 15 plays, 95 yards, no points.
Seahawks’ last six drives: 30 plays, 311 yards, 35 points, one INT
Seattle is 7-13-1 ATS in last 21 games as a home favorite.
Panthers 27, Dolphins 24
Carolina drove 78 yards, scored game-winning TD with 1:59 left.
RB Dowdle ran ball 23 times for 206 yards and a TD.
Panthers outgained Miami, 418-248.
Carolina won both its home games, scoring 30-27 points.
Miami led 17-0 with 5:00 left in first half.
Dolphins ran the ball 14 times for only 19 yards.
Dolphins are 0-3 on road, giving up 30.3 ppg.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 9-13-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.
Vikings 21, Browns 17
Vikings drove 80 yards in 10 plays, scored game-winning TD with 0:25 left.
Under O’Connell, Vikings are 28-10 SU in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
Under O’Connell, Vikings are 20-13-3 ATS as a favorite.
Vikings are first team in ’25 to gain more than 277 yards vs Cleveland.
Rookie QB Gabriel threw for 190 yards, 2 TD’s in his first NFL start.
Rookie RB Judkins ran for 110 yards on 23 carries.
Minnesota converted 3-9 on third down, Cleveland 3-15.
In their 1-4 start, Browns have scored 16-17-13-10-17 points.
Patriots 23, Bills 20
New England led 6-3 at halftime.
Patriots kicked a 52-yard FG with 0:15 left for the win.
Patriots scored 33-42-23 points in wins, 13-14 in losses.
New England is 2-0 on road (33-27 @ Miami/23-20 here)
Bills outgained NE 363-338, but had 3 turnovers (minus-2)
Buffalo in first half: 27 plays, 125 yards, 3 points.
Buffalo in 2nd half: 36 plays, 263 yards, 17 points.
Patriots are 2-5 SU/5-2 ATS in last seven visits to Buffalo.
Famous birthdays, October 6th:
Tony Dungy, 70
Alfredo Griffin, 68
Elisabeth Shue, 62
Rubén Sierra, 60
Jeremy Sisto, 51
Freddy Garcia, 49
Jake Bauers, 30
Bryson Stott, 28
Herb Jones, 27
Trevor Lawrence, 26
Kyle Pitts, 25
Jonathan Kuminga, 23
— Blue Jays 13, New York 7
Toronto led 11-0 in the fourth inning.
Daulton Varsho was 4-for-5, scoring 4 runs, with 4 RBI
Toronto leads series 2-0; Game 3 is Tuesday in New York.
— Mariners 3, Tigers 2
Julio Rodriguez won the game with an 8th inning double.
Skubal pitched 7 innings, but Tigers got only three hits.
Series is tied, 1-1; Game 3 is Tuesday in Detroit.
Texans 44, Ravens 10
Texans’ first five drives: 36 plays, 266 yards, 31 points.
QB Stroud threw for 244 yards, four TD’s.
Houston outgained the Ravens, 417-207.
Texans won last two games 26-0/44-10, after an 0-3 start.
QB Jackson didn’t play; Baltimore trailed 24-3 at halftime.
Baltimore’s first six drives: 28 plays, 112 yards, 7 points.
Ravens gave up 41-38-37-44 points in their four losses.
Ravens are giving up 409.4 yards/game.
Saints 26, Giants 14
Giants led 14-3 New Orleans early in the second quarter.
Rattler threw an 87-yard TD pass to Shaheed.
Howden returned a fumble 86 yards for TD on first play of 4th quarter.
Saints converted 7-15 on third down, Giants 3-10
Giants’ first two drives: 16 plays, 129 yards, 14 points.
Giants rest of game: 53 plays, 207 yards, no points.
Giants are 5-9-1 ATS in last 15 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Giants committed 5 turnovers, had 8 penalties for 95 yards.
Cowboys 37, Jets 22
Cowboys in first half: 32 plays, 298 yards, 23 points.
Dallas led 23-3 at halftime.
Since 2021, Cowboys are 12-6 ATS as a road favorite.
Dallas scored 40-40-37 in wins/tie, 20-14 in losses.
Jets are 10-17 ATS in last 27 games as a home underdog.
Jets are 6-19-1 ATS last 26 games vs NFC teams.
Jets are 8-16-1 ATS in last 25 games coming off a loss.
Jets are 8-17-1 ATS last 26 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Colts 40, Raiders 6
Indy went 3/out on their first five drive.
Colts’ next six drives: 47 plays, 295 yards, six TD’s.
Colts are 3-0 at home, scoring 33-29-40 points.
Under Steichen, Indy is 7-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Raiders drove 80 yards, kicked FG on their first drive.
Raiders’ next six drives: 26 plays, 121 yards, no points.
Las Vegas lost last four games, giving up 20-41-25-40 points.
Raiders are 20-26-1 ATS in last 47 games coming off a loss.
Commanders 27, Chargers 10
Washington’s first two drives: 8 plays, 30 yards, no points.
Washington’s next four drives: 27 plays, 177 yards, 20 points.
QB Daniels is 16-7 as an NFL starter.
Commanders are 7-3 ATS last 10 games with a spread of 3 or fewer points.
Chargers’ first two drives: 18 plays, 119 yards, 10 points.
Chargers rest of game: 47 plays, 221 yards, no points.
QB Herbert has been sacked 16 times in Chargers’ first five games.
Chargers’ WR Keenan Allen caught his 1,000th career pass.
Lions 37, Bengals 24
Lions led 14-3 at halftime.
Detroit’s first two drives in 2nd half: 12 plays, 108 yards, 14 points.
Lions won last three games, scoring 52-38-34-37 points.
Detroit is +7 in turnovers in its last four games.
Bengals lost last three games, by a combined 113-37.
Lions are 12-2 ATS last 14 games as a road favorite.
Detroit is 16-7 ATS in last 23 games vs AFC teams
Detroit is 25-11 ATS last 36 games coming off a win.
Week 6 NFL spreads:
— Eagles (-7.5) @ Giants
— Broncos (-7.5) vs Jets (@ London)
— Browns @ Pittsburgh (-5.5)
— Chargers (-5.5) @ Miami
— Cardinals @ Indianapolis (-5.5)
— Seahawks @ Jacksonville (-1.5)
Quote of the Day
“I don’t really know what to think about that. I don’t even know. I really don’t even know. That’s ‘How to Lose a Game 101.’ I don’t know. It was crazy.”
Cardinals’ QB Kyler Murray
Monday’s quiz
Last time Toronto Blue Jays won a playoff series was 2016; who did they beat?
Sunday’s quiz
Since 2021, Detroit Lions have the NFL’s best record against the spread (51-22)
Saturday’s quiz
Jared Goff played his college football for the Cal Golden Bears.
*************************************************
Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday…….
Titans 22, Cardinals 21Arizona led 21-6 with 13:00 left; RB Demercado appeared to run for a 72-yard TD to salt the game away, but he dropped the ball just before he crossed the goal line; it became a touchback.
Arizona’s first four drives: 22 plays, 173 yards, 21 points.
Arizona rest of game: 42 plays, 185 yards, no points.
Cardinals lost their last three games by total of five points.
Rookie QB Ward threw for 265 yards in his first NFL win.
Titans’ last three drives: 25 plays, 205 yards, TD-INT-FG
WR Ridley caught five passes for 131 yards.
Tennessee also scored a TD when Arizona picked off a Ward pass with 5:00 left, but the guy fumbled and the Titans recovered it in the end zone for a TD.
Broncos 21, Eagles 17
Eagles led 17-3 after the third quarter.
Broncos in first 3 quarters: 45 plays, 171 yards, 3 points.
Denver in 4th quarter: 27 plays, 190 yards, 18 points.
Down 17-10, Denver scored a TD with 7:36 left; they went for 2 points and the lead, and made it, talking the lead for good.
Eagles’ last five drives: 20 plays, 54 yards, no points.
Eagles are 4-1, but they’ve been outgained in all five games.
Philly converted 2-11 third down plays, Broncos 5-16.
Philly is 7-10-1 ATS in last 18 games as a home favorite.
Buccaneers 38, Seahawks 35
Buccaneers kicked a 39-yard FG at the gun for a walk-off win.
Tampa Bay is 3-0 on road, with wins by 1-3-3 points.
Tampa Bay is 13-2 ATS last 15 games as a road underdog.
Mayfield threw for 379 yards, two TD’s.
Both teams averaged 10+ yards/pass attempt.
Seahawks’ first 3 drives: 15 plays, 95 yards, no points.
Seahawks’ last six drives: 30 plays, 311 yards, 35 points, one INT
Seattle is 7-13-1 ATS in last 21 games as a home favorite.
Panthers 27, Dolphins 24
Carolina drove 78 yards, scored game-winning TD with 1:59 left.
RB Dowdle ran ball 23 times for 206 yards and a TD.
Panthers outgained Miami, 418-248.
Carolina won both its home games, scoring 30-27 points.
Miami led 17-0 with 5:00 left in first half.
Dolphins ran the ball 14 times for only 19 yards.
Dolphins are 0-3 on road, giving up 30.3 ppg.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 9-13-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.
Vikings 21, Browns 17
Vikings drove 80 yards in 10 plays, scored game-winning TD with 0:25 left.
Under O’Connell, Vikings are 28-10 SU in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
Under O’Connell, Vikings are 20-13-3 ATS as a favorite.
Vikings are first team in ’25 to gain more than 277 yards vs Cleveland.
Rookie QB Gabriel threw for 190 yards, 2 TD’s in his first NFL start.
Rookie RB Judkins ran for 110 yards on 23 carries.
Minnesota converted 3-9 on third down, Cleveland 3-15.
In their 1-4 start, Browns have scored 16-17-13-10-17 points.
Patriots 23, Bills 20
New England led 6-3 at halftime.
Patriots kicked a 52-yard FG with 0:15 left for the win.
Patriots scored 33-42-23 points in wins, 13-14 in losses.
New England is 2-0 on road (33-27 @ Miami/23-20 here)
Bills outgained NE 363-338, but had 3 turnovers (minus-2)
Buffalo in first half: 27 plays, 125 yards, 3 points.
Buffalo in 2nd half: 36 plays, 263 yards, 17 points.
Patriots are 2-5 SU/5-2 ATS in last seven visits to Buffalo.
Famous birthdays, October 6th:
Tony Dungy, 70
Alfredo Griffin, 68
Elisabeth Shue, 62
Rubén Sierra, 60
Jeremy Sisto, 51
Freddy Garcia, 49
Jake Bauers, 30
Bryson Stott, 28
Herb Jones, 27
Trevor Lawrence, 26
Kyle Pitts, 25
Jonathan Kuminga, 23
— Blue Jays 13, New York 7
Toronto led 11-0 in the fourth inning.
Daulton Varsho was 4-for-5, scoring 4 runs, with 4 RBI
Toronto leads series 2-0; Game 3 is Tuesday in New York.
— Mariners 3, Tigers 2
Julio Rodriguez won the game with an 8th inning double.
Skubal pitched 7 innings, but Tigers got only three hits.
Series is tied, 1-1; Game 3 is Tuesday in Detroit.
Texans 44, Ravens 10
Texans’ first five drives: 36 plays, 266 yards, 31 points.
QB Stroud threw for 244 yards, four TD’s.
Houston outgained the Ravens, 417-207.
Texans won last two games 26-0/44-10, after an 0-3 start.
QB Jackson didn’t play; Baltimore trailed 24-3 at halftime.
Baltimore’s first six drives: 28 plays, 112 yards, 7 points.
Ravens gave up 41-38-37-44 points in their four losses.
Ravens are giving up 409.4 yards/game.
Saints 26, Giants 14
Giants led 14-3 New Orleans early in the second quarter.
Rattler threw an 87-yard TD pass to Shaheed.
Howden returned a fumble 86 yards for TD on first play of 4th quarter.
Saints converted 7-15 on third down, Giants 3-10
Giants’ first two drives: 16 plays, 129 yards, 14 points.
Giants rest of game: 53 plays, 207 yards, no points.
Giants are 5-9-1 ATS in last 15 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Giants committed 5 turnovers, had 8 penalties for 95 yards.
Cowboys 37, Jets 22
Cowboys in first half: 32 plays, 298 yards, 23 points.
Dallas led 23-3 at halftime.
Since 2021, Cowboys are 12-6 ATS as a road favorite.
Dallas scored 40-40-37 in wins/tie, 20-14 in losses.
Jets are 10-17 ATS in last 27 games as a home underdog.
Jets are 6-19-1 ATS last 26 games vs NFC teams.
Jets are 8-16-1 ATS in last 25 games coming off a loss.
Jets are 8-17-1 ATS last 26 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Colts 40, Raiders 6
Indy went 3/out on their first five drive.
Colts’ next six drives: 47 plays, 295 yards, six TD’s.
Colts are 3-0 at home, scoring 33-29-40 points.
Under Steichen, Indy is 7-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Raiders drove 80 yards, kicked FG on their first drive.
Raiders’ next six drives: 26 plays, 121 yards, no points.
Las Vegas lost last four games, giving up 20-41-25-40 points.
Raiders are 20-26-1 ATS in last 47 games coming off a loss.
Commanders 27, Chargers 10
Washington’s first two drives: 8 plays, 30 yards, no points.
Washington’s next four drives: 27 plays, 177 yards, 20 points.
QB Daniels is 16-7 as an NFL starter.
Commanders are 7-3 ATS last 10 games with a spread of 3 or fewer points.
Chargers’ first two drives: 18 plays, 119 yards, 10 points.
Chargers rest of game: 47 plays, 221 yards, no points.
QB Herbert has been sacked 16 times in Chargers’ first five games.
Chargers’ WR Keenan Allen caught his 1,000th career pass.
Lions 37, Bengals 24
Lions led 14-3 at halftime.
Detroit’s first two drives in 2nd half: 12 plays, 108 yards, 14 points.
Lions won last three games, scoring 52-38-34-37 points.
Detroit is +7 in turnovers in its last four games.
Bengals lost last three games, by a combined 113-37.
Lions are 12-2 ATS last 14 games as a road favorite.
Detroit is 16-7 ATS in last 23 games vs AFC teams
Detroit is 25-11 ATS last 36 games coming off a win.
NFL
Weather Report
Monday, October 6
NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 5
Monday’s game
Chiefs (-3.5) @ Jaguars
Chiefs (2-2)
Chiefs won their last two games, by 13-17 points.
Chiefs have gone under their team total in 3 of 4 games.
QB Mahomes is 108-28 as an NFL starter.
Andy Reid is 303-165-1 as an NFL head coach
Chiefs are 8-6 ATS last 14 games as a road favorite.
Chiefs converted 13 of last 30 third down plays.
Chiefs are 15-23 ATS in last 38 games coming off a win.
AFC West teams are 5-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Jaguars (3-1)
Home team won/covered all three Jacksonville games.
Jaguars held last three opponents to 48-87-83 rushing yards.
QB Lawrence is 26-40 as an NFL starter.
Liam Coen is 3-1 as an NFL head coach.
Jaguars have 13 takeaways, are already +9 in turnovers.
Jaguars are 8-4 ATS last 12 games as a home underdog.
Jaguars are 13-12 ATS last 25 games coming off a win.
In their loss, Jaguars gave up 302 PY to the Bengals.
Chiefs are 8-0 SU/6-2 ATS in last eight series games.
Kansas City won/covered last three visits to Jacksonville.
Six of last seven meetings stayed under the total.
Weather Report
Monday, October 6
NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 5
Monday’s game
Chiefs (-3.5) @ Jaguars
Chiefs (2-2)
Chiefs won their last two games, by 13-17 points.
Chiefs have gone under their team total in 3 of 4 games.
QB Mahomes is 108-28 as an NFL starter.
Andy Reid is 303-165-1 as an NFL head coach
Chiefs are 8-6 ATS last 14 games as a road favorite.
Chiefs converted 13 of last 30 third down plays.
Chiefs are 15-23 ATS in last 38 games coming off a win.
AFC West teams are 5-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Jaguars (3-1)
Home team won/covered all three Jacksonville games.
Jaguars held last three opponents to 48-87-83 rushing yards.
QB Lawrence is 26-40 as an NFL starter.
Liam Coen is 3-1 as an NFL head coach.
Jaguars have 13 takeaways, are already +9 in turnovers.
Jaguars are 8-4 ATS last 12 games as a home underdog.
Jaguars are 13-12 ATS last 25 games coming off a win.
In their loss, Jaguars gave up 302 PY to the Bengals.
Chiefs are 8-0 SU/6-2 ATS in last eight series games.
Kansas City won/covered last three visits to Jacksonville.
Six of last seven meetings stayed under the total.
CNOTES NFL BEST BETS FOR OCTOBER !
10/06/2025......................0 - 2 - 0.........................00.00%....................- 11.00
10/05/2025......................9 - 3 - 0.........................75.00%....................+ 28.50
10/02/2025......................1 - 1 - 0.........................50.00%....................- 0.50
TOTALS..........................10 - 6 -- 0........................62.0%......................+ 17.00
10/06/2025......................0 - 2 - 0.........................00.00%....................- 11.00
10/05/2025......................9 - 3 - 0.........................75.00%....................+ 28.50
10/02/2025......................1 - 1 - 0.........................50.00%....................- 0.50
TOTALS..........................10 - 6 -- 0........................62.0%......................+ 17.00
Tuesday’s 6-pack:
NFL QB’s who started in Week 5, who played at Oklahoma:
— Dillon Gabriel
— Jalen Hurts
— Baker Mayfield
— Kyler Murray
— Spencer Rattler
— Caleb Williams
Quote of the Day
“I feel very comfortable. It’s a fair question. We score 3 points in three games in the first half. I totally understand that. But right now, it’s going to remain the same.”
Bengals coach Zac Taylor, on his remaining the play caller
Tuesday’s quiz
Patrick Mahomes’ father pitched for six different teams in his 11-year major league career; what did he spend the most time with (5 years)?
Monday’s quiz
Last time Toronto Blue Jays won a playoff series was 2016; they beat Texas in that series.
Sunday’s quiz
Since 2021, Detroit Lions have the NFL’s best record against the spread (51-22)
************************************************
American
Home teams 4-9 ATS
Favorites 9-4 ATS
ACC
Road teams 12-8 ATS
Big 18
Underdogs 12-7 ATS
Big X
Favorites 12-7 ATS
Conference USA
Home teams 5-2 ATS
Mid-American
Home teams 7-3 ATS
Mountain West
Home teams 3-4 ATS
SEC
Home underdogs 4-0 ATS
Home teams 11-5 ATS
Sun Belt
Home teams 9-1 ATS
— NFL divisional trends:
AFC East
Home teams 1-4 ATS divisional games
4-6 ATS non-divisional games
AFC North
4-11 ATS non-divisional games
AFC South
8-5 ATS non-divisional games
AFC West
6-7 ATS non-divisional games
NFC East
8-6 ATS non-divisional games
NFC North
7-5 ATS non-divisional games
NFC South
Non-divisional road underdogs 5-3 ATS
NFC South
Home teams 0-4 ATS divisional games
7-5 ATS non-divisional games
— This is only the 4th time ever that every NFL team has a loss by Week 5.
Famous birthdays, October 7th:
José Cardenal, 82
Judy Landers, 67
Dylan Bakler, 66
Priest Holmes, 52
Omar Miller, 47
Evan Longoria, 40
Chase Daniel, 39
Mookie Betts, 33
Jesus Sanchez, 28
Tutu Atwell, 26
— NBA season starts in a couple weeks; NBA uses their preseason to market their game all over the world. Just this month, they’ll have games in:
Adu Dhabi
Australia
China
Puerto Rico
Vancouver, Canada
In regular season, they’ll have NBA games in England, Germany, Mexico City.
— White Sox IF Colson Montgomery hit 21 home runs this year in 71 games, the most home runs EVER by a player who didn’t hit a home run before the All-Star break.
— St Louis Cardinals are probably going to make big changes this winter:
2024: 83-79…….2,869,783 fans at home games (35,872/game)
2025: 78-84…….2,250,007 fans at home games (27,777/game)
Cardinals missed the playoffs the last three years; last time they missed the playoffs 4+ years in a row was 1988-95.
— Texas Rangers hired Skip Schumaker as their new manager; he went 84-78 managing the Marlins in 2023, then went 62-100 last year and he surprisingly resigned.
— Saturday night, Fresno State held off Nevada 20-17 in the Mountain West; Fresno held the ball for the last 8:42 of the game to preserve their win. 15 plays, 68 yards, no punts.
— Sunday in England, Dillon Gabriel was 41st quarterback to start for the Cleveland Browns, since 1999.
— Time flies; the NHL season starts tonight, with three games scheduled.
NFL QB’s who started in Week 5, who played at Oklahoma:
— Dillon Gabriel
— Jalen Hurts
— Baker Mayfield
— Kyler Murray
— Spencer Rattler
— Caleb Williams
Quote of the Day
“I feel very comfortable. It’s a fair question. We score 3 points in three games in the first half. I totally understand that. But right now, it’s going to remain the same.”
Bengals coach Zac Taylor, on his remaining the play caller
Tuesday’s quiz
Patrick Mahomes’ father pitched for six different teams in his 11-year major league career; what did he spend the most time with (5 years)?
Monday’s quiz
Last time Toronto Blue Jays won a playoff series was 2016; they beat Texas in that series.
Sunday’s quiz
Since 2021, Detroit Lions have the NFL’s best record against the spread (51-22)
************************************************
Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but……
— College football conference trends (in conference games):American
Home teams 4-9 ATS
Favorites 9-4 ATS
ACC
Road teams 12-8 ATS
Big 18
Underdogs 12-7 ATS
Big X
Favorites 12-7 ATS
Conference USA
Home teams 5-2 ATS
Mid-American
Home teams 7-3 ATS
Mountain West
Home teams 3-4 ATS
SEC
Home underdogs 4-0 ATS
Home teams 11-5 ATS
Sun Belt
Home teams 9-1 ATS
— NFL divisional trends:
AFC East
Home teams 1-4 ATS divisional games
4-6 ATS non-divisional games
AFC North
4-11 ATS non-divisional games
AFC South
8-5 ATS non-divisional games
AFC West
6-7 ATS non-divisional games
NFC East
8-6 ATS non-divisional games
NFC North
7-5 ATS non-divisional games
NFC South
Non-divisional road underdogs 5-3 ATS
NFC South
Home teams 0-4 ATS divisional games
7-5 ATS non-divisional games
— This is only the 4th time ever that every NFL team has a loss by Week 5.
Famous birthdays, October 7th:
José Cardenal, 82
Judy Landers, 67
Dylan Bakler, 66
Priest Holmes, 52
Omar Miller, 47
Evan Longoria, 40
Chase Daniel, 39
Mookie Betts, 33
Jesus Sanchez, 28
Tutu Atwell, 26
— NBA season starts in a couple weeks; NBA uses their preseason to market their game all over the world. Just this month, they’ll have games in:
Adu Dhabi
Australia
China
Puerto Rico
Vancouver, Canada
In regular season, they’ll have NBA games in England, Germany, Mexico City.
— White Sox IF Colson Montgomery hit 21 home runs this year in 71 games, the most home runs EVER by a player who didn’t hit a home run before the All-Star break.
— St Louis Cardinals are probably going to make big changes this winter:
2024: 83-79…….2,869,783 fans at home games (35,872/game)
2025: 78-84…….2,250,007 fans at home games (27,777/game)
Cardinals missed the playoffs the last three years; last time they missed the playoffs 4+ years in a row was 1988-95.
— Texas Rangers hired Skip Schumaker as their new manager; he went 84-78 managing the Marlins in 2023, then went 62-100 last year and he surprisingly resigned.
— Saturday night, Fresno State held off Nevada 20-17 in the Mountain West; Fresno held the ball for the last 8:42 of the game to preserve their win. 15 plays, 68 yards, no punts.
— Sunday in England, Dillon Gabriel was 41st quarterback to start for the Cleveland Browns, since 1999.
— Time flies; the NHL season starts tonight, with three games scheduled.
NFL
Week 6
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday, October 9
8:15 PM ET
Philadelphia VS New York
Philadelphia is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games.
Philadelphia is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games.
Philadelphia is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games against NY Giants.
Philadelphia is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road.
NY Giants is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants' last 6 games.
NY Giants is 2-15 SU in its last 17 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants' last 6 games against Philadelphia.
Sunday, October 12
9:30 AM ET
Denver VS New York
Denver is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games.
Denver is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games against NY Jets.
Denver is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games against NY Jets.
NY Jets is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Jets' last 7 games.
NY Jets is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games.
NY Jets is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home.
1:00 PM ET
Los Angeles VS Baltimore
LA Rams is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams' last 6 games.
LA Rams is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games.
LA Rams is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games against Baltimore.
Baltimore is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Baltimore's last 6 games.
Baltimore is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Baltimore's last 12 games against LA Rams.
1:00 PM ET
Dallas VS Carolina
Dallas is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games.
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Dallas' last 13 games.
Dallas is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games against Carolina.
Dallas is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games against Carolina.
Carolina is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games.
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Carolina's last 9 games.
Carolina is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games.
Carolina is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home.
1:00 PM ET
Arizona VS Indianapolis
Arizona is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games.
Arizona is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games against Indianapolis.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis.
Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Indianapolis' last 8 games against Arizona.
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home.
1:00 PM ET
Los Angeles VS Miami
LA Chargers is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers' last 5 games.
LA Chargers is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games.
LA Chargers is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games against Miami.
Miami is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games.
Miami is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Miami's last 19 games against LA Chargers.
1:00 PM ET
Cleveland VS Pittsburgh
Cleveland is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cleveland's last 10 games.
Cleveland is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games.
Cleveland is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games against Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games.
Pittsburgh is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games against Cleveland.
Pittsburgh is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home.
1:00 PM ET
New England VS New Orleans
New England is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New England's last 12 games.
New England is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games.
New England is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games against New Orleans.
New Orleans is 6-12 ATS in its last 18 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans' last 6 games.
New Orleans is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games.
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New Orleans' last 12 games against New England.
4:05 PM ET
Tennessee VS Las Vegas
Tennessee is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 games.
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tennessee's last 12 games.
Tennessee is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games.
Tennessee is 4-16 SU in its last 20 games on the road.
Las Vegas is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Las Vegas' last 11 games.
Las Vegas is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games.
Las Vegas is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games at home.
4:25 PM ET
San Francisco VS Tampa Bay
San Francisco is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 8 games.
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
San Francisco is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games against Tampa Bay.
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Tampa Bay's last 20 games.
Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games against San Francisco.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games at home.
4:25 PM ET
Cincinnati VS Green Bay
Cincinnati is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Cincinnati's last 15 games.
Cincinnati is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games.
Cincinnati is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games against Green Bay.
Green Bay is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games.
Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati.
Monday, October 13
7:15 PM ET
Buffalo VS Atlanta
Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games.
Buffalo is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games.
Buffalo is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games against Atlanta.
Atlanta is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Atlanta's last 13 games.
Atlanta is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 9 games against Buffalo.
8:15 PM ET
Chicago VS Washington
Chicago is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games.
Chicago is 3-12 SU in its last 15 games.
Chicago is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games against Washington.
Washington is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games against Chicago.
Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago.
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Week 6
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Trend Report
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Thursday, October 9
8:15 PM ET
Philadelphia VS New York
Philadelphia is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games.
Philadelphia is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games.
Philadelphia is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games against NY Giants.
Philadelphia is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road.
NY Giants is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants' last 6 games.
NY Giants is 2-15 SU in its last 17 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants' last 6 games against Philadelphia.
Sunday, October 12
9:30 AM ET
Denver VS New York
Denver is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games.
Denver is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games against NY Jets.
Denver is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games against NY Jets.
NY Jets is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Jets' last 7 games.
NY Jets is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games.
NY Jets is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home.
1:00 PM ET
Los Angeles VS Baltimore
LA Rams is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams' last 6 games.
LA Rams is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games.
LA Rams is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games against Baltimore.
Baltimore is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Baltimore's last 6 games.
Baltimore is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Baltimore's last 12 games against LA Rams.
1:00 PM ET
Dallas VS Carolina
Dallas is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games.
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Dallas' last 13 games.
Dallas is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games against Carolina.
Dallas is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games against Carolina.
Carolina is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games.
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Carolina's last 9 games.
Carolina is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games.
Carolina is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home.
1:00 PM ET
Arizona VS Indianapolis
Arizona is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games.
Arizona is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games against Indianapolis.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis.
Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Indianapolis' last 8 games against Arizona.
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home.
1:00 PM ET
Los Angeles VS Miami
LA Chargers is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers' last 5 games.
LA Chargers is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games.
LA Chargers is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games against Miami.
Miami is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games.
Miami is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Miami's last 19 games against LA Chargers.
1:00 PM ET
Cleveland VS Pittsburgh
Cleveland is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cleveland's last 10 games.
Cleveland is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games.
Cleveland is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games against Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games.
Pittsburgh is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games against Cleveland.
Pittsburgh is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home.
1:00 PM ET
New England VS New Orleans
New England is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New England's last 12 games.
New England is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games.
New England is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games against New Orleans.
New Orleans is 6-12 ATS in its last 18 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans' last 6 games.
New Orleans is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games.
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New Orleans' last 12 games against New England.
4:05 PM ET
Tennessee VS Las Vegas
Tennessee is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 games.
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tennessee's last 12 games.
Tennessee is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games.
Tennessee is 4-16 SU in its last 20 games on the road.
Las Vegas is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Las Vegas' last 11 games.
Las Vegas is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games.
Las Vegas is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games at home.
4:25 PM ET
San Francisco VS Tampa Bay
San Francisco is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 8 games.
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
San Francisco is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games against Tampa Bay.
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Tampa Bay's last 20 games.
Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games against San Francisco.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games at home.
4:25 PM ET
Cincinnati VS Green Bay
Cincinnati is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Cincinnati's last 15 games.
Cincinnati is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games.
Cincinnati is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games against Green Bay.
Green Bay is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games.
Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati.
Monday, October 13
7:15 PM ET
Buffalo VS Atlanta
Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games.
Buffalo is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games.
Buffalo is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games against Atlanta.
Atlanta is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Atlanta's last 13 games.
Atlanta is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 9 games against Buffalo.
8:15 PM ET
Chicago VS Washington
Chicago is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games.
Chicago is 3-12 SU in its last 15 games.
Chicago is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games against Washington.
Washington is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games against Chicago.
Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago.
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