Top NFL Things To Know
Unprecedented Dogs
Home & Unproven
The Broncos are home underdogs vs. the Packers this week.
The Patriots are about a 1-pt home dog to Buffalo, too.
Both teams are on a 10-game outright win streak entering this week.
Since 1980, we’ve only seen three home dogs on a 10+ game win streak, but only one featured both starting QBs in the lineup:
2005 AFC Championship Game in Pittsburgh, where Ben Roethlisberger faced Tom Brady. Pitt closed +2.5 and lost outright 41-27. The last game in this spot before 2005 with both starting QBs was the 1976 AFC title game between the Steelers and Raiders.
We could have two such games this week.
Sad Cats
Panthers Favored Again
Panthers haven't won or covered the spread in a game (reg/post) they were favored in since Sept. of 2021 — four full years ago – they’ve lost 11 straight SU/ATS as a favorite. That is the longest SU losing streak for any team as a favorite since the 1970 merger.
Public Problem
Gone in 60 Seconds
According to Action Network's betting data, NFL teams getting 60% of tickets or more are 50-84 ATS (37%) through 14 weeks. These 60%+ ticket teams are below .500 ATS in 13 of 14 weeks. The 37% mark is the worst through 14 weeks in the 23-year history of our database.
Big Numbers
Week 15 Monster Lines
Week 15 is the week for big spreads.
- Jaguars are double-digit favorites in this game vs. Jets – at any line above -10, it would be the biggest line of Trevor Lawrence’s pro career.
- CJ Stroud has made 46 career NFL starts, his biggest line as a favorite is -8 at home vs. Titans last year – Houston is -9.5 vs. Cardinals this week.
- Bears are 7.5-pt favorites vs. Browns — which would be the biggest favorite for Caleb Williams in his short career. Chicago hasn't closed -7.5 or higher since 2020.
- With Seattle at -13.5 vs. Colts this week, anything at -13 or higher would be the biggest spread for Sam Darnold in his career. Darnold has been a favorite of 6 pts or more 11 times as a starter in the NFL. He is 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS in those games.
Incentive Season
2025 NFL Bonuses, Records & Milestones
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Dog Time
Key Spots
As an underdog of 4 pts or more as a duo, the Lions with Goff and Campbell are 17-3 ATS, covering the spread by 5.2 PPG, including 17-5 ATS when a dog of over 3 pts.
As an underdog, Joe Burrow is 21-11 ATS as a starter in his career. When Burrow closes as an underdog of 3 points or more, he is 10-11-1 SU and 19-3 ATS, covering the spread by 6.2 PPG.
As an underdog of 3 pts or more, Herbert is 12-6-1 ATS as a starter. When that line rises to +3.5 or more, he is 11-2-1 ATS.
December To Remember
McVay, LaFleur Shine
In December, Matt LaFleur-coached teams have been dominant. He is 21-4 SU and 14-10-1 ATS. LaFleur has 8+ SU losses every month during football season.
As a head coach, Sean McVay is 27-11 SU and 26-11-1 ATS in the month of December, winning 9 in a row outright. Since the start of 2021, McVay is 16-3 ATS in December now.
Monday, Monday, Monday
Steelers Time
Steelers franchise has had a lot of success playing on Monday Night Football, especially at home.
Under Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh is 22-5 SU on a Monday, including 11-1 SU at home in Pittsburgh.
Dating back to 1992, Steelers are 22-1 SU at home on a Monday, just losing to the Commanders in 2020 – when Pittsburgh has their fans in the stands and the atmosphere opponents are used to, Steelers are 22-0 SU at home on MNF since 1992.
On actual Monday Night Football itself, Steelers are 21-3 SU under Tomlin, the 2nd-best win pct all-time minimum 10 starts behind just John Madden (11-1-1).
Grandpa Energy
Philip Rivers Returns
Tuesday morning, the 44-year-old Philip Rivers signed with the Colts, going first on their practice squad after Daniel Jones was lost for the season due to an Achilles' injury.
Rivers opened around 40-1 to win Comeback Player of the Year before being quickly bet down to about 12-1 odds just an hour after signing, the current 3rd option behind Christian McCaffrey (-135) and Dak Prescott (+125).