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Armadillo Sports

Saturday’s 6-pack

Odds to win the Southern Conference tournament…….
6-5— Furman
12-5— NC-Greensboro
4-1— Samford
14-1— Chattanooga
20-1— Wofford, East Tennessee State
25-1— Western Carolina

Tweet of the Day
“Poker is 100% skill and 50% luck.”
Phil Hellmuth

Saturday’s quiz
Butler made it to the Final Four two years in a row under coach Brad Stevens (2010-11);; what conference did the Bulldogs play in back then?

Friday’s quiz
VCU made the national championship game in 2011, as a #11-seed; Shaka Smart was their coach.

Thursday’s quiz
In the old TV show Gilligan’s Island, the rich guy’s name was Thurston Howell.

******************************

Saturday’s Den: Trends for conference tournaments, and other stuff

— Since 2015, there have been seven A-15 tournaments; seven different teams won those seven tournaments. Dayton/Fordham aren’t among those seven schools, so it could be eight teams in eight years after this year’s tournament.

VCU hasn’t won the A-15 tournament since 2015, which is surprising, since their regular season conference record during that time is 99-40.

— Toledo won the first MAC tournament, in 1980; they haven’t won one since. Rockets are 47-9 in conference games the last three years; this should be the year they end their drought and get back to the NCAA Tournament. Four different teams won last five MAC tourneys.

— Last six years, six different teams have won the CAA tournament; three of those six teams were the #1 seed. Charleston is the #1-seed this year; last time they won the CAA conference tournament was 2018.

— In Conference USA, five different teams won the last five conference tournaments; Florida Atlantic is the #1-seed; they haven’t won any conference tournament since 2002, when they won the Atlantic Sun tourney. #2/#3 seeds this year are North Texas/UAB, who won this event the last two years.

— In the Summit League, 10 of the last 11 conference tournaments have been won by either North Dakota State or South Dakota State; the event is held in Sioux Falls, SD every year.

This year, Oral Roberts is clearly the best team, going 18-0 in Summit games, five games better than anyone else. ORU won this event as the #3-seed three years ago. #1-seed won the Summit tournament five of the last eight years.

— Iona Gaels won five of the last six MAAC tournaments, actually five of last seven- they lost in the 2020 tournament, which was never finished because of COVID. Iona jogged to another regular season title this year; they’ll be favored to win in Atlantic City next week.

— #1-seed has won the Pac-12 tournament five of the last seven years, with Arizona winning four of those tournaments. UCLA will be the #1-seed this year; they haven’t won the Pac-12 tourney since 2014, USC hasn’t won it since 2009.

— Big Sky tournament has been won by the #1-seed 10 of the last 11 years; Eastern Washington won as the #2-seed two years ago. EWU is also the #1-seed this year; they lost their last two games, after an 18-game winning streak. #2-seed Montana State is clearly the next best team; they won the conference tournament last year.

— #1-seed has won the last nine Southern Conference tournaments; four different teams won the last four. Wofford in 2014 was the last non-#1-seed (#3-seed) to win the event. Furman/Samford tied for first place in the regular season this year; neither team has won the SoCon tournament in this century.

— In the ACC, four different teams won last four ACC tournaments; Virginia in 2018 was last #1-seed to win it. North Carolina hasn’t won the ACC tourney since 2016; Duke won in 2017, 2019.

— In the Big 14, #1-seed has won only one of last five conference tournaments; four different teams won the last four. Purdue is going to be the #1-seed, despite going 3-4 in their last seven games. Right now, there is a 6-way tie for second place in the Big 14, with one game to go.

— Jay Wright’s Villanova team won five of last seven Big East tournaments; they were the #1-seed in three of those five years, but Wright is working on TV now. Villanova is the #6-seed in the Big East this year, in Kyle Neptune’s first year as coach.

Marquette will be the #1-seed this year; Shaka Smart has won three conference tournaments in 12 years as a head coach, the last one with Texas two years ago.

— In the Big West, five different teams won the last six conference tournaments, with Cal State-Fullerton winning in 2018, 2022. #1-seed won two of last five tournaments. Irvine and Santa Barbara are tied for first with one game left in the regular season, with three other teams just a game behind those two.

— Loyola, Chicago won three of last five MVC Tournaments, but they’ve moved on to the A-15; Bradley won in 2019/2020- they won their 11th game in a row Friday, are the #1 seed in this year’s edition of Arch Madness.

— #1-seed won four of last six Mountain West tournaments; San Diego State won it only once in the last four years, despite going 55-15 in conference games those four seasons. Aztecs figure to be the #1-seed again this season.

UNLV hosts this tournament; they haven’t won the Mountain West tournament since 2008, back when BYU/TCU were also in the Mountain West.

Elsewhere………
Colorado State 92, New Mexico 84— Lobos were the last unbeaten team in the country; their first loss was January 3rd, but now they’ve lost 8 of their last 11 games and will need to win the Mountain West tournament to make the NCAA’s.

BYU 82, Portland 71— Portland led by 13 at halftime, got outscored 52-28 in second half. Cougars advance to play LMU Saturday at Orleans Arena.

Campbell 81, Longwood 68— #7-seed Camels upset #2-seed Longwood in the Big South quarterfinals. During the season, Longwood beat Campbell twice, by 24-25 points.

Toledo 87, Ball State 81— Rockets win the MAC regular season title; they won the first MAC tournament in 1980, haven’t won one since— they’ll need to win the tournament to make it to the NCAA’s.

Missouri Valley tournament
Drake 74, Murray State 62
Indiana State 94, Belmont 91


Big fish, small pond, that’s the secret to being a winning mid-major program. So many of these teams have success, then the administrators’ eyes get bigger than their stomach, and they move up to a bigger league, trying to join the big boys. It doesn’t work very often.

Murray State/Belmont were the big fish in the Ohio Valley; now neither one made the semi-final in their new league, a much better league.
 

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NY ISLANDERS are 6-0 ATS (6 Units) in home games after playing 2 consecutive road games in the current season.

BOSTON is 13-4 Over (8.6 Units) after successfully covering the spread in 5 or more consecutive games in the last 3 seasons.

COLORADO is 13-3 ATS (9.7 Units) on Saturday games in the current season.

SAN JOSE is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) in home games after playing 3 consecutive home games in the last 3 seasons.

FLORIDA is 9-1 Over (7.9 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.

WINNIPEG is 9-1 Under (7.9 Units) in home games on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.

VANCOUVER is 30-23 ATS (4.7 Units) off a home loss in the last 3 seasons.

COLUMBUS are 27-13 Over (12.7 Units) revenging a loss where team scored 1 or less goals in the last 3 seasons.

NASHVILLE is 219-215 ATS (-17.5 Units) in road games when playing their 4th game in 7 days since 1996.

MINNESOTA is 10-1 Under (8.9 Units) when playing 6 or more games in 10 days in the current season.

ST LOUIS are 11-4 ATS (6.6 Units) in road games after playing a game where 9 or more total goals were scored over the last 2 seasons.
 

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NHL

Saturday, March 4


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Trend Report
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Detroit @ NY Islanders
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 8 games when playing on the road against NY Islanders
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games on the road
NY Islanders
NY Islanders is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
NY Islanders is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit

Tampa Bay @ Buffalo
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing Buffalo
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games at home

NY Rangers @ Boston
NY Rangers
NY Rangers is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of NY Rangers's last 15 games when playing Boston
Boston
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Boston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

Colorado @ Dallas
Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Colorado's last 5 games when playing Dallas
Colorado is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Dallas's last 13 games when playing at home against Colorado

Washington @ San Jose
Washington
Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Jose
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Jose
San Jose
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Jose's last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 13 of San Jose's last 19 games at home

Pittsburgh @ Florida
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Florida
Florida
Florida is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Florida's last 18 games

Edmonton @ Winnipeg
Edmonton
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 5 games on the road
Edmonton is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Winnipeg
Winnipeg is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Edmonton
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Winnipeg's last 14 games when playing at home against Edmonton

Toronto @ Vancouver
Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Toronto's last 9 games when playing on the road against Vancouver
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Vancouver
Vancouver is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto
Vancouver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto

Columbus @ Ottawa
Columbus
Columbus is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Columbus's last 5 games when playing Ottawa
Ottawa
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Ottawa's last 5 games at home
Ottawa is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

Nashville @ Chicago
Nashville
Nashville is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Nashville is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing Chicago
Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 8 games when playing at home against Nashville
Chicago is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games at home

Minnesota @ Calgary
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
Calgary
Calgary is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Calgary is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota

St. Louis @ Los Angeles
St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of St. Louis's last 7 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles
The total has gone OVER in 16 of St. Louis's last 22 games on the road
Los Angeles
Los Angeles is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Los Angeles's last 7 games when playing at home against St. Louis


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NHL
Dunkel

Saturday, March 4


x7NzLuE.png
 

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SATURDAY, MARCH 4​

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
DET at NYI12:30 PMNYI -200
O 5.5
+500 +500
TB at BUF12:30 PMTB -160
U 7.0
+500 +500
NYR at BOS01:00 PMBOS -185
O 6.0
+500 +500
COL at DAL03:30 PMDAL -105
O 6.0
+500 +500
PIT at FLA06:00 PMFLA -125
O 6.5
+500 +500
WAS at SJ06:00 PMSJ +125
O 6.0
+500 +500
CLB at OTT07:00 PMOTT -290
O 6.5
+500 +500
TOR at VAN07:00 PMTOR -225
O 6.5
+500 +500
EDM at WIN07:00 PMEDM -135
U 7.0
+500 +500
NAS at CHI08:00 PMNAS -240
O 6.0
+500 +500
MIN at CAL10:00 PMCAL -150
U 5.5
+500 +500
STL at LA10:30 PMLA -210
O 6.5
+500 +500
 

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Armadillo Sports

Sunday’s 6-pack

Five best batting averages in spring training:
.583— Henry Ramos, Cubs
.500— Jordan Walker, StL
.455— James Outman, LA
.438— Cavan Biggio, Tor
.438— Oscar Colas, CWS
.429— Eloy Jimenez, CWS

Tweet of the Day
“Wait a minute, you gonna make $70M and you can’t play basketball 3 or 4 days a week?’… They fly private. They got the best medical stuff ever created… People working in the steel mill every day, I’m pretty sure they tired too, but they go to work every day.”
Charles Barkley, on load management in the NBA

Sunday’s quiz
In the old animated TV show The Jetsons, what high school did George’s daughter Judy go to?

Saturday’s quiz
Butler made it to the Final Four two years in a row under coach Brad Stevens (2010-11); the Bulldogs played in the Horizon League back then.

Friday’s quiz
VCU made the national championship game in 2011, as a #11-seed; Shaka Smart was their coach.

*******************************

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a college basketball Saturday

WCC

I’m sitting here at 3:15am watching the second overtime of the San Francisco-Saint Mary’s game from the WCC tournament in Las Vegas. It reminds me that ESPN’s old College Basketball Marathon, where they showed games for like 30 straight hours on a Monday/Tuesday, early in the season, was great fun. They should bring it back next year.

San Francisco 93, Santa Clara 87 2OT— Great game, ton of action, but it is 3:25am and I’m posting this and going to sleep. Maybe I’ll watch a movie first, but I’m signing off here.

OVC
SE Missouri State 89, Tennessee Tech 82, OT— First ticket to March Madness is punched by the Redhawks, who at one point this season, were 5-9. SE Missouri won four games in four days to win their first conference title in 23 years, and they had to play overtime on the 4th day, after blowing an 11-point second half lead.

This game is what March is all about; just getting into the NCAA’s is a huge deal for these guys and they did it in dramatic style.

Old guy rant: In an era where rich NBA guys sometimes don’t play on consecutive days, four Redhawks played 36:00+ in this game, while playing for the fourth day in a row.

Northeast Conference
Merrimack 71, Sacred Heart 60
Fairleigh Dickinson 70, St Francis PA 50


Merrimack is the top seed, but they’re not eligible for the NCAA Tournament; this is only their 4th year in Division I, so Fairleigh Dickinson punches the second ticket to the NCAA’s- they go to the NCAA’s for the first time since 2019, no matter happens in the NEC final.

SEC
Texas A&M 67, Alabama 61— Aggies were 6-5 on Christmas Day; they’re 17-3 since then, winning eight of their last nine games. A&M was 27-28 on the foul line; they’re the #2-seed in SEC tournament, finishing a game behind Alabama.

Kentucky 88, Arkansas 79— Wildcats finish 21-10, 12-6 in SEC play, winning five of last six regular season games. Kentucky fans who have been whining about Calipari can put a sock in it; Bracketology has Kentucky as a 7-seed in NCAA’s.

Arkansas has lost three in row, five of last seven games; they’ll be the #10 seed in SEC tourney, making them a bubble team for the NCAAs if they don’t win a game next week.

Big X
Iowa Sate 73, Baylor 58— Gambling is hard. This score makes no sense; Cyclones had lost four games in a row, but they shot 62.5% inside arc and won fairly easily. Now they can relax; they are in the NCAA’s, will be playing for seeding at the Big X tournament.

West Virginia 89, Kansas State 81— Mountaineers get off the bubble, winning three of last four games, scoring 80 ppg.

ACC
Duke 82, North Carolina 77— Tar Heels are 2-10 vs Quad 1 teams; how many wins do they need in the ACC tournament, to get to the NCAA’s? Tar Heels finished 7th in the ACC; no pre-season #1 team has ever missed the NCAA Tournament.

Miami 78, Pitt 76— Won’t know for sure until we see the brackets next Sunday, but kind of like Miami as a Cinderella Final Four team. Hurricanes won eight of last nine games, and they blew a 25-point lead in the one loss.

Miami is #28 experience team, with #144 continuity not bad; they’re #22 in offense efficiency, and important metric for the NCAA Tournament.

Big East
Marquette 96, St John’s 94
— On Christmas Day, Marquette was 9-4; they’re 16-2 since then, and won the Big East regular season title. by two games.

Shaka Smart is a really good coach; he is 44-19 in two years at Marquette, but fact of the matter is, he hasn’t won an NCAA Tournament game since 2013, losing his last seven NCAA Tourney games. He got VCU to the Final Four as an 11-seed in 2011, went WL in next two tournaments, but has come up dry since. This could be the year his team makes another run in the NCAA’s.

Sun Belt
South Alabama 78, Southern Miss 61— #1-seed Southern Miss was a great story this year, after going 24-65 the last three years, but they get upset in first round of Sun Belt tourney. USA outscored the Eagles 52-34 in the second half; they’ve won 10 of their last 12 games.

Mountain West
San Jose State 63, Air Force 61— Spartans trailed 45-25 early in second half, but rallied to win and move to 19-12; they’ll have a bye in the Mountain West tournament for the first time ever.

UNLV 69, Nevada 67 OT— Rebels upset their in-state rivals, giving them their first home loss this season. UNLV jumped out to a 13-0 lead, but trailed 54-46 with 2:27 left. Nevada was 23-35 on foul line, Rebels were 8-11. Nevada finishes as the #4-seed in Mountain West, UNLV #7.

Southern Conference
Chattanooga 85, Samford 82
— #7-seed Mocs upset #2-seed Samford, making 15-28 shots on the arc. Kid on Samford scored 27 points in 28:00 and he didn’t start. Bulldogs are 42-22 the last two seasons, but went 1-2 in the SoCon tournament.

Atlantic 15
VCU 74, George Washington 68— Rams with regular season title by three games, but this is going to be the first time in over a decade this league gets only one team in NCAAs, which makes the conference tournament huge, obviously. Last seven years, seven different teams won the A-15 tournament; next week is going to be fun.

Missouri Valley
Bradley 71, Indiana State 70
— Braves won their 12th straight game, shooting 62% inside the arc; they advance to play Drake in MVC finals Sunday. Bradley survived 5-24 shooting on the arc.

Conference USA
UAB 93, Charlotte 91, 2OT— Jordan Walker scored 41 points for the Blazers; he was 8-20 on the arc. Charlotte’s whole team was 8-23 on the arc. UAB has won six in a row, 10 of last 11 games; if they play North Texas in the C-USA semi-finals next week, that’ll be a great game.

Florida Atlantic 76, Louisiana Tech 72— Owls are having their best season ever, with a 28-3 record heading into the C-USA Tournament; FAU hasn’t made the NCAA Tournament since 2002. Bracketology has FAU as a #9-seed; they could conceivably get in as an at-large team, if they lose in the conference tournament.
 

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CAROLINA is 29-10 ATS (14.8 Units) against good offensive teams - scoring 2.85+ goals/game in the current season.

MONTREAL is 42-35 ATS (3.5 Units) when playing their 4th road game in 7 days since 1996.

PHILADELPHIA is 10-30 ATS (-23 Units) after scoring 2 goals or less in 2 straight games in the last 3 seasons.

ARIZONA is 45-58 ATS (-18.8 Units) after one or more consecutive overs in the last 3 seasons.

SEATTLE is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in road games off 2 or more consecutive road wins in the current season.




NHL

Sunday, March 5


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Trend Report
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Tampa Bay @ Carolina
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against Carolina
Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games
Carolina is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games

Montreal @ Vegas
Montreal
Montreal is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Montreal is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Vegas
Vegas is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
Vegas is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games

Detroit @ Philadelphia
Detroit
Detroit is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Detroit
Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home

New Jersey @ Arizona
New Jersey
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Jersey's last 5 games
New Jersey is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 8 games when playing New Jersey
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing at home against New Jersey

Seattle @ Colorado
Seattle
Seattle is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Seattle is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Colorado
Colorado is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
Colorado is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 

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SUNDAY, MARCH 5​

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
TB at CAR03:00 PMCAR -165
O 6.0
+500 +500
MON at VEG06:00 PMVEG -290
U 6.0
+500 +500
DET at PHI06:00 PMDET +105
O 6.0
+500 +500
NJ at ARI07:00 PMARI +300
O 6.5
+500 +500
SEA at COL09:00 PMSEA +140
O 6.0
+500 +500
 

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Monday’s 6-pack

The last 11 days for college basketball referee John Higgins:
February 23- Washington State @ Stanford
February 24- Wyoming @ Colorado State
February 25- USC @ Utah
February 26- UCLA @ Colorado
February 27- Baylor @ Oklahoma State
February 28- Texas Tech @ Kansas

March 1- Texas @ TCU
March 2- Valparaiso vs Murray State @ St Louis
March 3- Northern Iowa vs Bradley @ St Louis
March 4- Kansas State @ West Virginia
March 5- Drake vs Bradley @ St Louis

Quote of the Day
“What I’m saying from this point and through the weekend tournament, we have to understand how we got to play, how we got to fight, how we have to execute. If that means win games like today, great. if it means ah, they made a bank shot, they made a walk on a step back — drag his foot, walk and make it, and they don’t call it and it’s like ‘boom’ and you lose the game?

Stuff like that happens. It happens. But as long as we play, we fight, we execute, we’re preparing for that next tournament. And that’s the most important thing.”
John Calipari

Monday’s quiz
How many Division I college basketball teams are there in the state of Indiana?

Sunday’s quiz
In the old animated TV show The Jetsons, George’s daughter Judy went to Orbit High School.

Saturday’s quiz
Butler made it to the Final Four two years in a row under coach Brad Stevens (2010-11); the Bulldogs played in the Horizon League back then.

****************************

Monday’s Den: Does success in conference tournaments predict success in the NCAA’s?

— There have already been several upsets in the mid/lower conference tournaments, which will put the teams who win those tournaments in the four play-in games in Dayton March 14-15.

SE Missouri State, Fairleigh Dickinson figure to be headed to Dayton; if Montana State wins the Big Sky, they’ll probably avoid a play-in game, but maybe not. If Northern Arizona wins the Big Sky, they’re definitely headed to Dayton. Kennesaw State might also be in a play-in game, in their first-ever NCAA Tournament.

Life figures to be a little easier in the first round this year, for the #1 and #2-seeds.

— When the NCAA Tournament brackets come out next week, how do you choose the four teams you think will make the Final Four? There are a lot of theories on this…….

Today, we’re going to examine whether success in the conference tournament leads to winning a national championship. This obviously only applies to the multi-bid, big $$$$ leagues; the mid-major teams have to win their conference tournament just to get in the tournament.

— Over the last 20 years, nine of the 20 national champs also won their conference tournament
— Only two of the last seven national champs also won their conference tournament.

— In the last 20 years, no team has won a national championship without winning its first game in their conference tournament.
— In the last 20 years, of the 80 teams who made the Final Four, teams went 70-10 in the first game in their conference tournament.

— In the last 20 years, the eventual national champ only went 12-8 in their second conference tournament game.
— In the last 20 years, teams that lost the national championship game went 12-7 in their second conference tournament
— In the last 20 years, teams that lost the national semi-finals went 26-5 in their second conference tournament game.

In the conference tournaments with Sunday finals, I’ve often thought that coaches aren’t all that heartbroken if their team loses on Saturday; playing on Sunday, then maybe having to play their first NCAA tourney game on Thursday is a quick turnaround.

Recent years (twice in last seven years) suggest that just because a team loses in its conference tournament doesn’t mean they won’t win a national title. Losing the first game of a tournament appears to be a pretty big red flag.

— Anyone ever had lemon Oreo cookies? They were talking about them on the Duke-North Carolina game Saturday night, now I have to buy some to see if they’re any good, unless someone tells me they’re hideous. Early returns have been in favor of them.

— If you like college basketball, ESPN+ is a great thing to have; can watch ballgames and replays of games night and day, even obscure games.

Furman 83, Western Carolina 80 OT— Last year, Furman lost the SoCon final 64-63 in OT, after leading by 12 early on, losing on a leaning 3-pointer at the buzzer; it was a very devastating loss for a Paladin squad that has not made the NCAA’s since 1980.

Sunday, Furman led this game by 20 early in the second half; they blew the lead, their best player fouled out in overtime, but they pulled the game out, and advance to the SoCon final against Chattanooga Monday night the same Chattanooga team that beat them in last year’s final.

Houston 67, Memphis 65— Cougars trailed 56-51 with 6:34 left; Jamal Shead hit an 18-footer as time expired to give Houston a dramatic road win.

The Final Four is in Houston next month, in Jim Nantz’s last year doing the tournament on CBS. Nantz is a Houston alum; he played on the golf team. Are the Cougars a team of destiny?

Drake 77, Bradley 51— Drake scored 1.26 points/possession, led by 20 at the half, and won Arch Madness for the first time since 2008. Bulldogs start three graduate students; they’ve got a lot of experience/continuity. Plus, they shoot the ball well.

NC-Asheville 77, Campbell 73— 7th-seed Camels led by 14 with 7:35 left in game, but couldn’t get over the hump and #1-seed Asheville wins its 9th straight game, making NCAA’s for first time since 2016. Asheville has won 18 of its last 19 games.

South Alabama 75, James Madison 66— 8th-seeded Jaguars were 8-13 on January 26th; since then, they’re 11-2, allowing 62.7 ppg in first three games of this tournament. South Alabama is a thin team (#339 in bench minutes) playing for third day in row tomorrow; they’re #347 team in continuity- they play #2-seed Louisiana tomorrow night in the Sun Belt final.

Kennesaw State 67, Liberty 66— Three years ago, Owls were 1-28; now they’re in the NCAA’s for the first time ever. Hopefully they’ll avoid a play-in game and get to enjoy their status for an extra couple days. Kennesaw played the A-Sun tournament at home; two of their three wins were by a single point.

— Texas Tech suspended basketball coach Mark Adams for what the school calls an “inappropriate, unacceptable, and racially insensitive comment.”

From ESPN.com: “Adams was encouraging a player to be more receptive to coaching and ‘referenced Bible verses about workers, teachers, parents, and slaves serving their masters.’ Adams apologized to the team after he found out the player was upset about the use of the Bible verse.”

Adams is 66 years old; he is 43-25 in two seasons as Tech’s coach. Tech made the Sweet 16 last year; they’re 16-15, 5-13 this year. Rich boosters like the Sweet 16 a lot better than they like a 5-13 conference record.

— Longwood Lancers are 20-12 this season; they have a player Michael Christmas, who wears number 25, which makes sense, seeing how Christmas is on the 25th and all.

— Bradley Braves were the #1-seed in the Missouri Valley tournament; this was the first time Bradley was the #1-seed in Arch Madness since 1996.

— North Carolina F Leaky Black is in his fifth year of college basketball; Saturday night was his 153rd game for the Tar Heels, which is a school record.

— More and more mid-major/low major teams seem to recruiting foreign players; Saint Mary’s has thrived for years thanks to recruiting Australian players. Teams who don’t get on ESPN a lot have to be creative where they get talented players.
 

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Messages
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Tokens
WINNIPEG is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive overs in the current season.

EDMONTON is 7-1 ATS (5.9 Units) in road games off a road loss in the current season.

CALGARY is 18-27 ATS (-30.9 Units) against poor defensive teams - >=29 shots on goal, convert >=17% pp in the current season.

CHICAGO is 156-111 Under (33.9 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1996.

NASHVILLE is 34-22 ATS (9.8 Units) after playing 2 consecutive road games in the last 3 seasons.

WASHINGTON is 8-1 Under (6.9 Units) after playing 3 consecutive road games in the current season.




NHL
Dunkel

Monday, March 6


KObRtyC.png





NHL

Monday, March 6


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Trend Report
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San Jose @ Winnipeg
San Jose
San Jose is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Jose's last 6 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
Winnipeg
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 6 games when playing at home against San Jose
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 6 games when playing San Jose

Edmonton @ Buffalo
Edmonton
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Edmonton's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Buffalo's last 7 games

Calgary @ Dallas
Calgary
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Calgary's last 5 games on the road
Calgary is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
Dallas
Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Ottawa @ Chicago
Ottawa
Ottawa is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Ottawa is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Chicago
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Ottawa
Chicago is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Ottawa

Washington @ Los Angeles
Washington
Washington is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Los Angeles is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Los Angeles's last 5 games when playing at home against Washington

Nashville @ Vancouver
Nashville
Nashville is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Nashville's last 7 games when playing on the road against Vancouver
Vancouver
Vancouver is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Vancouver's last 7 games when playing at home against Nashville


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Sep 26, 2005
Messages
104,302
Tokens

MONDAY, MARCH 6​

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
EDM at BUF07:30 PMBUF +135
O 7.0
+500 +500
SJ at WIN07:30 PMWIN -210
U 6.0
+500 +500
CAL at DAL08:30 PMCAL +120
O 6.0
+500 +500
OTT at CHI09:00 PMOTT -275
O 6.5
+500 +500
WAS at LA10:30 PMWAS +120
O 6.5
+500 +500
NAS at VAN10:30 PMNAS -110
U 6.0
+500 +500
 

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Jun 22, 2009
Messages
16,855
Tokens
Armadillo Sports

Tuesday’s 6-pack

Division I basketball teams in the state of Indiana:
— Ball State
— Butler
— Evansville
— Indiana
— Indiana- Fort Wayne
— IUPUI
— Indiana State
— Notre Dame
— Purdue
— Valparaiso

Tweet of the Day
“Man Bronny definitely better than some of these cats I’ve been watching on league pass today”
Lebron James, referring to his son, who is a senior in high school

Tuesday’s quiz
In the excellent movie Molly’s Game, what famous actor plays Molly’s father?

Monday’s quiz
There are ten Division I college basketball teams in the state of Indiana.

Sunday’s quiz
In the old animated TV show The Jetsons, George’s daughter Judy went to Orbit High School.

********************************

Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but…….

Furman 88, Chattanooga 79— Paladins lost SoCon final last year in gut-wrenching fashion; they got revenge here, jumping out to a 30-11 lead and then holding on, making it into March Madness for the first time since 1980.

Louisiana 71, South Alabama 66— Watched lot of Sun Belt games on ESPN+ this winter; this league needs more national exposure- they play good ball. Ragin’ Cajuns are 26-7; they’re in the NCAA Tournament for first time since 2014.

Charleston 77, Towson 72— 30-3 Cougars are in the minority, a dominant mid-major that won its conference tournament this week. Charleston won its last nine games; they won this game by outscoring Towson 28-9 on the foul line.

NC-Wilmington 79, Hofstra 73 OT— Hofstra tied Charleston atop the CAA, but they lost here, after leading by 12 in first half.

Hofstra won the CAA tournament three years ago, but COVID cancelled the NCAA’s that year. Last time the Pride played in NCAA’s was 2001, when Jay Wright was their coach.

Northern Kentucky 75, Youngstown State 63— Top-seeded Penguins start five seniors, but they got whacked here; it was 40-25 at halftime. Northern Kentucky plays Cleveland State tonight for the Horizon title.

— New Orleans Saints signed QB Derek Carr to a 4-year, $150M deal; $37.5M a year.

— Seattle Seahawks re-signed their QB Geno Smith to a 3-year, $105M deal.

— From 2015-17, Kirk Cousins went 24-23-1 as Washington’s QB; since then, 12 different guys have played QB for the Redskins/Commanders- their combined record is 32-49-1.

— How do you evaluate QB’s? You read the stuff about the NFL Combine and how Florida QB Anthony Richardson impressed all the scouts with a strong vertical jump and broad jump, but does that really matter?

Florida was 6-7 last year; Richardson completed 53.8% of his passes. When evaluating a QB, I’d prefer game tapes over a workout.

— UCLA gave football coach Chip Kelly a contract extension thru 2027; he’ll make just over $6M a year. UCLA finished last season ranked #21, first time since 2014 they finished a season ranked in the top 25.

— I like the XFL’s kickoff rule; the two teams line up 10 yards apart, and no one can move until the receiver touches the ball. There have been some decent returns in the games I’ve watched.

— Passing leaders, thru three weeks of the USFL:
855 yards— Ben DiNucci, Seattle
723— Brandon Silvers, Houston
636— AJ McCarron, St Louis
436— Jack Coan, San Antonio
434— Paxton Lynch, Orlando

— There is a casino in downtown Las Vegas, the El Cortez; they posted on Twitter that they went through 3,250 pairs of dice last year.

— Couple days ago, Mets are playing and other team has men on 1st/2nd with no one out in the first inning. #3 hitter hits an infield pop-up to the shortstop; umpire calls the infield fly rule, so the batter is automatically out.

Francisco Lindor lets the ball drop, seeing if any of the runners will screw it up and run. No one did; don’t think I’ve seen that happen before.

— Red Sox IF Justin Turner got hit in the face with a pitch Monday, got 16 stitches but no bones were broken.

— Only five major league pitchers threw 200+ innings last year.

By way of contrast, Hall of Fame pitcher Sandy Koufax retired when he was 30; his last two years in the majors, he threw 335, then 323 innings. Times have changed.

These days, teams are paying big-time pitchers a boatload of $$$ under long-term contracts; they can’t have them retiring when they’re 30.

— Cubs no-hit San Diego in a spring training game Friday, the first no-hitter in a spring training game since 2017.

— I’m thinking that this spring/summer, I’ll be making a list of teams that get ravaged by the transfer portal, then consider picking against those teams all of next season. Teams fire their coach, the better players bolt for greener pastures and the new coach is left to scramble for a new roster, which is tough to do.

Think of Illinois State losing Antonio Reeves, who played four years for the Redbirds, but then bolted to Kentucky when coach Dan Muller got fired. Illinois State went 11-21 this season with a new coach. Reeves is averaging 14.2 ppg for Kentucky this season— Illinois State would’ve won a lot more than 11 games had Reeves stayed with the Redbirds.

— Austin Peay fired coach Nate James after they went 21-39 in two seasons; James had been an assistant coach at Duke for 13 years before that. Austin Peay moved from the OVC to the Atlantic Sun this season, and finished last.

— Former LA Laker Michael Cooper is coaching high school ball now; his Culver City team is playing in the Regional Division III championship game Tuesday night. Culver City has never made it this far in the state playoffs before.

— Alabama freshman Brandon Miller is the first player since the Lakers’ Anthony Davis (in 2012) to win SEC Freshman of the Year and also be SEC Player of the Year.
 

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Messages
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Tokens
MONTREAL is 47-30 Under (14 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent of 2 goals or more in the last 3 seasons.

COLUMBUS are 2-19 ATS (-18.9 Units) in road games after allowing 4 goals or more 2 straight games in the last 3 seasons.

PHILADELPHIA is 7-1 ATS (5.9 Units) in road games revenging a home loss versus opponent of 2 goals or more in the current season.

VEGAS are 15-2 Under (12.8 Units) after allowing 2 goals or more in the third period last game in the current season.

NEW JERSEY is 233-165 Under (51.5 Units) in home games when playing their 4th game in 7 days since 1996.

BUFFALO is 9-2 ATS (6.8 Units) in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days in the current season.

CALGARY is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in road games revenging a loss where team scored 1 or less goals in the last 3 seasons.

SAN JOSE is 149-127 ATS (9.3 Units) in road games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread since 1996.

ARIZONA is 13-9 ATS (3.1 Units) off 2 or more consecutive home losses in the last 3 seasons.

SEATTLE is 11-1 ATS (9.9 Units) off 2 or more consecutive road wins in the current season.
 

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Messages
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NHL

Tuesday, March 7


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Vegas @ Florida
Vegas
Vegas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Florida
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Vegas's last 12 games on the road
Florida
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Florida's last 5 games
Florida is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games at home

Carolina @ Montreal
Carolina
Carolina is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Montreal
Carolina is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Montreal
Montreal
Montreal is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Montreal is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home

Toronto @ New Jersey
Toronto
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New Jersey
Toronto is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing New Jersey
New Jersey
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Jersey's last 5 games
New Jersey is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home

Columbus @ Pittsburgh
Columbus
Columbus is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Columbus is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Columbus
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Columbus

Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay
Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games on the road
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing Philadelphia
Tampa Bay is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games at home

Buffalo @ NY Islanders
Buffalo
Buffalo is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Islanders
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games
NY Islanders
NY Islanders is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Islanders's last 5 games

Calgary @ Minnesota
Calgary
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Calgary's last 9 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Calgary's last 6 games on the road
Minnesota
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games

St. Louis @ Arizona
St. Louis
St. Louis is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 16 of St. Louis's last 23 games on the road
Arizona
Arizona is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against St. Louis
Arizona is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 games when playing St. Louis

San Jose @ Colorado
San Jose
San Jose is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Jose's last 5 games on the road
Colorado
Colorado is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Jose
Colorado is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing San Jose

Anaheim @ Seattle
Anaheim
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Anaheim's last 5 games when playing Seattle
Anaheim is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Anaheim
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games


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