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NL Central Betting Odds
Matt Blunt


2021 NL Central Division Odds


St. Louis Cardinals +105
Milwaukee Brewers +300
Cincinnati Reds +330
Chicago Cubs +425
Pittsburgh Pirates +6500


For the second time in three years the St. Louis Cardinals went shopping for roster upgrades in the NL West and came back with a superstar. It was 1B Paul Goldschmidt from Arizona a couple of years ago, and this winter it was 3B Nolan Arenado from Colorado.


That addition is a big part in the given edge to the Cardinals on paper in this marketplace, as the margins for error in the NL Central is going to be razor thin for everyone. Unless you're the Pirates. Expect plenty of errors from Pittsburgh this year.


But for as deep and balanced as the Cardinals appear to be, I'm not sure the rest of the division is as far behind St. Louis as these prices (and the season win totals) seem to suggest.


Milwaukee adding Jackie Bradley, Jr. is no small thing for them even if the bigger payoff is in defensive runs saved with him, and the Reds did lose Trevor Bauer and his Cy Young winning effort, but they were everyone's preseason darling in that 60-game season for more reasons than just having Bauer and Cincinnati probably underperformed; especially early on.


The Cubs actually won the NL Central in 2020, and when you can have a lineup like they can with Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, Heyward, Pederson, and others like Chicago can, 4-1 on Chicago to repeat can appear a little disrespectful.


Whether or not the Kris Bryant free agency after this year ends up becoming a biggest distraction than it should is always a concern with the Cubs, as is the idea that they had been sliding south before last year's division crown in the sprint of a season. For how good Chicago's lineup appears to look, they are priced as the worst of the bunch for other reasons.


So I believe any division breakdown here has to start with two questions. The first being whether or not a bettor sides with the idea that the Cardinals are the clear cut favorite in this division. If you do, it's pretty straight forward how to react, but if you don't selecting between the other three probably comes down to such a slim margin in the end that any argument for any of those three teams can be viable at this point.


2021 National League Pennant Odds


St. Louis Cardinals +1050
Milwaukee Brewers +2500
Cincinnati Reds +1500
Chicago Cubs +2200
Pittsburgh Pirates +10000


Same conceptual idea generally exists here on whether or not a bettor agrees with the market assessment on St. Louis. There are four teams with better odds with the Dodgers (+175), Padres (+390), Braves (+500), and Mets (+525), but only three NL Central teams have made the World Series since 2008 as well (St. Louis in 2011, 2013, Chicago 2016).


More interesting in this futures market has got to be the Reds being priced as high as they are, pushing them as a clear cut favorite to go further than Milwaukee which helps paint a potential picture for Reds plays in other markets.


But if there are questions about the Cardinals being worth the price that they are listed at, that doesn't appear to be the case with Cincinnati.


I don't see how the Reds are worth this price for the whole NL even if they did underachieve by as big a margin as possible last summer. Cincinnati's price is much more likely to grow to +2000 and higher as the weeks get played in the season, and that's part of not seeing any interest in the Reds right now.


That's not to say Cincinnati can't be a good price to win the National League this year, but the likelihood of getting them at a better price to do so is rather high in my view that even those who have the most positive outlook for the Reds this year would be prudent to wait and let the season play out a bit first.


Finally, we can't leave out the fact that the Cubs have the better price than Milwaukee in this market, despite the Brewers owning that honor for the division. The idea that the Cubs are a streaky team is nothing new and definitely has to be expected to a degree, but again, seeing how the Cubs open up the year and get a few weeks under their belt isn't a bad idea.


Remember, with all these NL Central teams, they are still competing with the likes of the Dodgers, Padres, and NL East leaders in this market, all of whom come into the year with much better prices. If those teams start the year on a roll, prices on the other teams have no choice but to climb.


The Cardinals upgraded their lineup with the acquisition of 3B Nolan Arenado from the Rockies. (AP)


2021 World Series Odds


St. Louis Cardinals +2500
Cincinnati Reds +3300
Chicago Cubs +4000
Milwaukee Brewers +4400
Pittsburgh Pirates +25000


It's the same hierarchy of prices in relation to the teams again here, with Milwaukee being the worst of the bunch in the Top 4. Don't think that matters as much here as any run by any of these teams through the entire league this year would be worthy of being priced in the 3000 to +5000 range.


Cincinnati may not be worth 11 points on Milwaukee, so from a pure price perspective it might be an option to take Milwaukee now and see what kind of other opportunities open up down the road.


MLB Win Totals Odds


St. Louis 86.5
Milwaukee 82.5
Cincinnati 82.5
Chicago 78.5
Pittsburgh 58.5


So what do you do with the NL Central win total prices in a division that should be quite congested at the top?


Well, to start, every NL Central winner (outside of last year) has finished with at least 90 wins since 2008, so get the division winner correct and the 'over' should be an easy cash as well.


Seven of the last eight have either been the Cubs or the Cardinals in that regard, but I still like the chances of one those two teams sitting at 82.5 wins. Still believe the Reds are much better than they showed last year offensively, and that it's still more than enough to make up for losing the reigning Cy Young winner.


Going back to 2008 is also important as there have only been two times since 2008 that this division has had four teams finish with 80+ wins (2008, 2018). That's a 12-year run that even includes multiple years where the NL Central was a six-team division with the Astros still lurking around.


If the Pirates are the furthest of afterthoughts, correctly pick the the team that will be the worst of the other four and an 'under' play on the win totals should cash as well.


MLB Win Playoff Prop Odds


St. Louis Cardinals Yes -124; No +100
Cincinnati Reds Yes +190; No-245
Milwaukee Brewers Yes +145; No -182
Chicago Cubs Yes +325; No -455
Pittsburgh Pirates Yes N/A; No N/A


Arguably the best division in baseball for this specific futures market, as any 'yes' option on any of the three teams offering plus money for that result (Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Chicago) makes sense, as does the idea of going 'no' on St Louis for those that may want to go that route.


Finding a preference on the 'yes' option for the Brewers/Reds/Cubs would be my preferred path, although it's no certainty the Cardinals finish as a Top Two team in this division either.


But rooting for teams to win is always more enjoyable than rooting for specific ones to lose, so finding a 'yes' option on one of those three plus-money teams is probably the best way to go.


MLB Most Valuable Player Odds


Nolan Arenado (St. Louis) +1200
Christian Yelich (Milwaukee) +1200
Kris Bryant (Chicago) +3000
Anthony Rizzo (Chicago) +3000
Javier Baez (Chicago) +3300
Paul Goldschmidt (St. Louis) +3300
Ian Happ (Chicago) +4000


Balance and depth are the glaring perspective of the Cardinals roster, so unless St Louis piles up 100+ wins at a top seed in the NL, Arenado and Goldschmidt probably take too many votes from one another to be that strongly considered.


That argument can obviously be made for all the Cubs players on the list, but Chicago probably won't get the pitching St Louis would in 100-win campaigns for either of them, meaning Chicago's success will be more dependent on the bats of those guys.


Every one of the last 11 NL MVP winners has been a 1st time winner of the award though, so that does hurt Kris Bryant's chances in that Cubs debate.


It also hurts Milwaukee's Christian Yelich as the 2018 winner, but if Milwaukee goes off as a team this year, who else can you think they'd give it to on the Brewers besides Yelich. Anyone high on the Brewers chances this year shouldn't worry too much about that with Yelich.


MLB Cy Young Odds


Jack Flaherty (St. Louis) +1500
Luis Castillo (Cincinnati) +1500
Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee) +2200
Sonny Gray (Cincinnati) +3300
Corbin Burnes (Milwaukee) +4000


It isn't a deep list for Cy Young contenders in the NL Central this year and probably for good reason. However, the Central had the worst net run differential as a division in the NL last year at -1 (STL 0.2, CHI 0.4, Cincy 0, Milwaukee -0.3, Pittsburgh -1.3) and facing the weaker offenses more often certainly didn't hurt Bauer's efforts in winning the award as a member of the Reds last year.


But I don't believe any of these guys have the pedigree that Bauer already had going into the year, nor do I believe any of these names are consistent enough with their dominant efforts to run through the entire year and claim this award.
 

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NL West Betting Odds
Matt Blunt


2021 NL West Division Odds


Los Angeles Dodgers -250
San Diego Padres +200
San Francisco Giants +4000
Arizona Diamondbacks +5000
Colorado Rockies +5000


Even without looking at the prices for the NL West this year, baseball bettors had better have already known this division is going to be a two-horse race between the Dodgers and Padres barring something extraordinary somewhere else.


One of the Giants/Diamondbacks/Rockies is going to end up better than their projections if for no other reason then someone's got to win those games played among each other. But for the team that is lucky enough to do that to seriously threaten the division title – at least at this stage – is money best left kept in pocket.


The Dodgers have owned this division for years, having won it for eight consecutive seasons now. Everyone knows that all those division titles typically ended up in playoff heartbreak before last season, but the fact that the Dodgers were able to get over that hump and win a World Series may actually be a negative for this year's division futures.


A World Series title in exchange for not winning the division after eight straight years of doing so is a trade off every Dodger fan will gladly make, but from a historical betting perspective, I want nothing to do with the Dodgers at -250 to win the NL West for a 9th straight season.


That's because defending World Champions have only gone on to win their division the following year five times the past 20 years. It has happened twice in the past four seasons with the Cubs winning the 2017 NL Central following their 2016 championship year, and the Houston Astros doing the same thing the following season, but given what we know about how good the Padres are, and how willingly they've spent money to further improve can really only suggest a play on San Diego at +200.


San Diego hasn't hidden their agenda to become the next dominant NL West organization this next decade and with how they are loading up things on their roster, the prices on the Padres aren't going to get any cheaper.


L.A. probably should have had at least one other World Series during this run of dominance these past handful of years, but guys have been going elsewhere to get paid more to play and even with the additions and reloads the Dodgers continue to make, eventually runs like that run their course. A bit more uncertainty in the depth department for L.A. has a price like -250 nothing but something I'd be looking to fade more often than not.


It just so happens that it works out rather nicely here with the Padres being the only realistic contender to dethrone the champs. Add in the negative history for World Series champs to go on and win their respective division to the Padres current situation of gunning for a decade of dominance in the “Fernando Tatis era”, only a Padres play makes sense here in my view.


2021 National League Pennant Odds


Los Angeles Dodgers +175
San Diego Padres +390
San Francisco Giants +6000
Arizona Diamondbacks +8000
Colorado Rockies +8000


So the fact that the Dodgers and Padres are priced #1 and #2 in the National League actually serves as more support for backing San Diego at +200 for the division in a roundabout way, but it does also suggest that both may be a little overpriced to go the distance(s) the most expect them too.


But whatever team that wins the NL East had a great season being the best of the bunch in that division, and the NL Central isn't a two-horse race like the NL West is either. Both of those division champs are going to be hard outs in a playoff series, and as we've seen with the Dodgers run prior to 2020, sometime the best team can run through their division/regular season and then get tripped up at the wrong time in a short sample size seven-game series.


It happens all the time. It's not like there aren't plenty of great pitching staffs on some of those potential NL East and NL Central champions to begin with. Any staff gets hot in October and every level of opponent is going to have a tough time.


Neither price on the Dodgers or Padres is all that viable then, unless a bettor believes in one of them so much that walking through the rest of the league won't be an issue for whomever comes out on top in this rivalry. Whether it be for the division or in a playoff series again itself.


Fernando Tatis, Jr. and the Padres have upgraded their roster and will be a threat to the Dodgers in the NL West. (AP)


2021 World Series Odds


Los Angeles Dodgers +350
San Diego Padres +800
San Francisco Giants +8000
Arizona Diamondbacks +10000
Colorado Rockies +10000


Even under the assumption that the Dodgers and Padres could be overpriced to win the NL Pennant, the idea of not having at least one of them involved in the NLCS is a tough one to completely get behind. Meaning that no matter if it's the Dodgers or Padres you are higher on this year, going with that side to win it all might be the most optimum.


The Dodgers are still priced as the overall favorite in all of MLB at +350, and the Padres are third at that number with only the Yankees in between. Hardly any difference in the gap there, a Dodgers' World Series price will never be +175 as the gap between their league pennant and World Series odds currently are, and the Padres price gap is a little bigger than that.


Furthermore, even with a slow start for the Dodgers that has them hovering around .500 after a month or so say, won't see their price drop dramatically where the idea of waiting on them might come into play. LA is too loaded not to find a way to get a playoff spot somehow, and even their price as the last wildcard wouldn't be astronomically higher than this one currently is. It's not like you can't double down on the Dodgers as well.


Most often though the Dodgers are running no worse than Top 3 in the NL West from the outset, and no worse than Top 5-8 in the National League for the majority of the season. An underwhelming year by the Padres for whatever reason adds even more wins to the Dodgers coffers in some form. Having the defending champs at +350 to repeat when they could have home field advantage throughout the playoffs isn't a bad place to be.


My apologies to any Giants/Diamondbacks/Rockies tickets, but seeing any one of those teams run hot enough for long enough, to come Top 2 in this division and then get hot enough to run through the rest of the NL and the AL representative is a lottery ticket that doesn't have a big enough price to entertain.


MLB Win Totals Odds


Los Angeles 102.5
San Diego 94.5
San Francisco 75.5
Arizona 74.5
Colorado 63.5


Getting involved in one of the projected bottom three teams always makes more sense in win totals than anywhere else, and seeing two of the three cash 'over' tickets this year would not be all that surprising. In that outcome, you'd have to figure that Colorado would likely be one of the two teams to do so, as 64 wins means still losing nearly 100 games.


The Rockies might not be trying to win everything these days, but they've still got bats like Charlie Blackmon and Trevor Story in their lineup. Playing in a ballpark where average hitters can easily look like nightly studs, expecting the Rockies to be 100-game losers this year feels like they aren't getting enough credit.


On the other side of the coin, if the Dodgers fall victim to being another defending World Series champ not to win their division the following year, it would be quite the feat to win 103+ games and not be a division winner. Meaning that any Padres winning the division bet is correlated to a Dodgers win total 'under' bet when you think about it.


That number the Dodgers have is a big one to cover for any team, even with the Dodgers likely winning a healthy percentage of their games from playing the bottom teams in the NL West.


Even those that are high on the Dodgers again this year should have a second thought about going over a number like this no matter what. No matter how you want to view it, there are definitely better options and potential edges out there.


MLB Win Playoff Prop Odds


Los Angeles Dodgers Yes N/A; No N/A
San Diego Padres Yes -590; No +400
San Francisco Giants Yes +800; No -1667
Arizona Diamondbacks Yes +1000; No -2500
Colorado Rockies Yes N/A; No N/A


Not a whole lot of time is needed to be spent here unless you are going for an outlier result as a big underdog.


Whether it's the “no” on the Dodgers or Padres, or “yes” on everyone else, unless you are willing to put out a big chunk of the bankroll on what of the more relative certain options, it's probably how you have to treat the playoff yes/no props with the NL West teams.


MLB Most Valuable Player Odds


Mookie Betts (Los Angeles) +750
Cody Bellinger (Los Angeles) +800
Fernando Tatis, Jr. (San Diego) +850
Corey Seager (Los Angeles) +1500
Manny Machado (San Diego) +2200
Trevor Story (Colorado) +2500
Katel Marte (Arizona) +3000
Max Muncy (Los Angeles) +4000
Charlie Blackmon (Colorado) +5000


No shortage of quality names from this division for MVP candidates but the interesting thing to me is having those two Rockies players priced at 50-1 or better. If Blackmon or Story win the MVP, the Rockies are definitely going 'over' their season win total of 63.5, and they still don't need a MVP-caliber season from either of them to get past that number. Seeing those two names here actually makes that Colorado win total 'over' much more appealing.


The rest of the list is pick your preference wherever it may be, although Cody Bellinger might want to get passed over a bit more often. Not one of the past 10 NL MVP's have won it more than once in their careers, and Bellinger is the only former NL MVP (2019) on that list. What that means for Mookie Betts and his 2018 AL MVP award is up to the individual, as he is the co-favorite in the league with Washington's Juan Soto.


Corey Seager is probably another name to avoid at that price. The last reigning World Series MVP winner to go on to win league MVP the following year was Mike Schmidt (1980 WS MVP, 1981 NL MVP (defending 1980 NL MVP), so 15-1 might not be enough to expect that to happen. Especially with how many other great candidates the Dodgers have alone.


Eight straight NL West titles has only “given” the Dodgers two MVP winners in that span (Kershaw in 2014, Bellinger in 2019, and if the thought process of the Padres uprising continues, you probably can't go wrong with either of those two Padres players listed.


MLB Cy Young Odds


Trevor Bauer (Los Angeles) +700
Walker Buehler (Los Angeles) +1000
Yu Darvish (San Diego) +1200
Blake Snell (San Diego) +1200
Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles) +2000
Dinelson Lamet (San Diego) +2500
German Marquez (Colorado) +3000


Repeating as NL Cy Young champ has actually been quite a regular occurrence with deGrom, Scherzer, Kershaw, and Lincecum all accomplishing the feat since 2008, and Randy Johnson won four in a row at the turn of the century (1999-2002).


But you'd have to go back to the run of four straight Cy Young's that Greg Maddux had from 1992 through 1995 to find someone that managed to repeat as the Cy Young award winner and do so on a different team. That's the mountain any Trevor Bauer wager has to climb, and only deGrom has a better price to claim the award, so opinions are already quite high on Bauer to begin with.


I will say this though, having six different guys from the Dodgers and Padres top this list for players in the division makes plenty of sense. All it takes is for one of them to dominate the other rival – a Padres pitcher going 6-1 in starts vs LA or the other way around – to have them vault to the front as one of the favorites come late in the year. Accomplishing that means that same pitcher will rack up plenty of dominant performances against the rest of the division, and being the pitcher that led the way to a division crown and potential World Series run is going to be hard to ignore in the Cy Young voting.


Where a bettor stands on selecting any of those names goes back to the entire discussion that's gone on throughout regarding where one believes the Dodgers and Padres will finish the year. The San Diego side of that debate has been the preferred side for me, and sticking with that line of thought, it would be Darvish who would get my support.


Darvish took so much heat from all angles on that Game 7 start for the Dodgers in the 2017 World Series when the Astros stung him for five in the first two innings and went on to win Game 7 by a 5-1 score. Well, a rough first two innings against the 2017 Houston Astros (in the most important game of the year) looks a hell of a lot different now then it did in the immediate aftermath of Darvish getting skewered for the rough outing. It would be some kind of poetic justice to dominant that same organization he seemingly “let down” to lead their new rival to a new uprising.


Darvish definitely has the stuff to be a serious player in the Cy Young race, and maybe if he has a huge hand in San Diego gaining the upper hand in the NL West this year, some karmic retribution is in order. Darvish was just in the wrong place at the wrong time for that Game 7, sometimes that message gets lost. Does Kershaw's last few years look any different if that was him starting Game 7 in 2017 with the same result?
 

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961PITTSBURGH -962 CHICAGO CUBS
PITTSBURGH is 459-435 SU (-19.5 Units) in road games against division opponents since 1996.


963ATLANTA -964 PHILADELPHIA
PHILADELPHIA is 7-2 SU (4.8 Units) in home games when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons.


965ARIZONA -966 SAN DIEGO
SAN DIEGO is 19-9 SU (9.1 Units) in home games against left-handed starters in the last 3 seasons.


967LA DODGERS -968 COLORADO
COLORADO is 717-771 SU (-131.1 Units) in home games when the total is 10 or higher since 1996.


969ST LOUIS -970 CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI is 489-453 SU (-9.3 Units) in home games when the money line is +125 to -125 since 1996.


973TORONTO -974 NY YANKEES
NY YANKEES are 17-4 SU (12.6 Units) as a home favorite of -150 or more over the last 2 seasons.


977BALTIMORE -978 BOSTON
BOSTON is 28-50 SU (-27 Units) against left-handed starters in the last 3 seasons.


979TEXAS -980 KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 45-95 SU (-59.5 Units) as a home favorite of -150 to -200 since 1996.


981CHI WHITE SOX -982 LA ANGELS
CHI WHITE SOX is 13-5 SU (7.5 Units) in road games as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons.


983HOUSTON -984 OAKLAND
OAKLAND is 48-38 SU (6.2 Units) in home games when the total is 8.5 to 10 in the last 3 seasons.




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This report will update Thursday morning....




MLB
Weather Report


Thursday, April 1



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MLB
Dunkel


Thursday, April 1



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MLB
Dunkel


Thursday, April 1



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MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up


Thursday, April 1



Not a lot to go on for the first 7-10 days, but we’ll do what we can. Once the season gets rolling, we’ll be posting what I think is the most relevant information for each game.


NL games
Pirates @ Cubs

Kuhl is 2-6, 5.82 in 12 games (11 starts) vs Chicago; he is 0-3, 4.95 in five games (4 starts) at Wrigley.


Hendricks is 6-8, 3.02 in 19 career starts vs Pittsburgh.


Braves @ Phillies
Fried is 3-2, 4.15 in 11 games (5 starts) vs Philly; he is 2-2, 4.29 in seven games (3 starts) here.


Nola is 11-6, 3.05 in 20 starts vs Atlanta.


Diamondbacks @ Padres
Bumgarner is 13-12, 3.63 in 37 starts vs San Diego; he is 5-9, 4.38 in 19 starts at Petco.


Darvish is 3-1, 2.93 in five starts vs Arizona.


Dodgers @ Rockies
Kershaw is 24-8, 3.22 in 43 starts vs Colorado, 11-5, 4.44 in 23 starts at Coors Field.


Marquez is 2-1, 2.54 in nine starts vs LA.


Cardinals @ Reds
Flaherty is 2-2, 2.48 in seven starts vs Cincinnati; he is 1-1, 3.31 in four starts here.


Castillo is 4-4, 3.84 in 11 starts vs St Louis.


Mets @ Nationals
deGrom is 8-4, 261 in 20 starts vs Washington; he is 7-1, 2.80 in 11 starts here.


Scherzer is 12-5, 2.70 in 23 starts vs New York.


AL games
Blue Jays @ Bronx

Ryu is 1-2, 6.04 in four starts vs New York, 0-1, 4.50 in his one start in the Bronx.


Cole is 3-0, 2.88 in four starts vs Washington.


Indians @ Tigers
Bieber is 5-1, 2.13 in six starts vs Detroit, 4-0, 1.53 in four starts in the Motor City.


Boyd is 2-6, 4.13 in 12 starts vs Cleveland.


Orioles @ Red Sox
Means is 3-2, 4.46 in seven games (6 starts) vs Boston, 1-1, 6.08 in three games (2 starts) at Fenway.


Eovaldi is 6-1, 4.15 in 12 starts vs Baltimore.


Rangers @ Royals
Gibson is 9-5, 3.67 in 22 starts vs Kansas City, 3-3, 3.77 in 11 starts here.


Keller is 1-1, 2.70 in five starts vs Minnesota.


White Sox @ Angels
Giolito is 2-0, 3.32 in three starts against the Angels, 2-0, 3.75 in two starts at Anaheim.


Bundy is 4-0, 3.86 in five games (4 starts) vs Chicago.


Astros @ A’s
Greinke is 9-3, 2.92 in 21 games (17 starts) vs Oakland, 4-2, 2.63 in 13 games (10 starts) in the Coliseum.


Bassitt is 3-3, 5.15 in nine games (7 starts) against the Angels.


Interleague games
Rays @ Marlins

Glasnow is 0-1, 8.68 in two starts against the Marlins.


Alcantara is 1-1, 5.40 in two starts vs Tampa Bay.


Twins @ Brewers
Maeda is 3-2, 2.59 in seven starts vs Milwaukee, 2-1, 2.70 in three starts at Miller Park.


Woodruff is 0-2, 3.38 in two starts vs Minnesota.


Giants @ Mariners
Gausman is 1-2, 2.88 in six games (5 starts) vs Seattle, 1-2, 3.18 in five games (4 starts) here.


Gonzales is 1-1, 6.75 in two starts vs San Francisco.




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MLB

Thursday, April 1


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Trend Report
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Toronto @ NY Yankees
Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Toronto's last 7 games when playing NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
NY Yankees
NY Yankees is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto
NY Yankees is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto


Cleveland @ Detroit
Cleveland
Cleveland is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Cleveland is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games when playing Detroit
Detroit
Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Detroit is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games at home


Baltimore @ Boston
Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Baltimore's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games
Boston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Boston's last 9 games at home


Minnesota @ Milwaukee
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games on the road
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Milwaukee's last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota


Pittsburgh @ Chi Cubs
Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Chi Cubs
Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Chi Cubs
Chi Cubs is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh


Atlanta @ Philadelphia
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games when playing Atlanta


St. Louis @ Cincinnati
St. Louis
St. Louis is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 8 games at home


Texas @ Kansas City
Texas
The total has gone UNDER in 18 of Texas's last 21 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Texas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 18 of Kansas City's last 21 games when playing at home against Texas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing Texas


Arizona @ San Diego
Arizona
Arizona is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Arizona is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games at home


LA Dodgers @ Colorado
LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Dodgers's last 7 games on the road
LA Dodgers is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Colorado
Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Colorado's last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Colorado's last 7 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers


Tampa Bay @ Miami
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
Tampa Bay is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing Miami
Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games


NY Mets @ Washington
NY Mets
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Mets's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Mets's last 6 games when playing Washington
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing NY Mets


Chi White Sox @ LA Angels
Chi White Sox
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chi White Sox's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Angels
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chi White Sox's last 7 games
LA Angels
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Angels's last 5 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox
LA Angels is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing Chi White Sox


Houston @ Oakland
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Oakland's last 10 games when playing at home against Houston


San Francisco @ Seattle
San Francisco
San Francisco is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Seattle
San Francisco is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Seattle
Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games when playing at home against San Francisco
 

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Thursday’s 6-pack
Odds for the Texas Open this week:

11-1— Jordan Spieth
14-1— Tony Finau
15-1— Scott Scheffler
19-1— Abraham Ancer, Hideki Matsuyama
21-1— Corey Connors
30-1— Ryan Palmer


Americans who have died from COVID-19: 550,903
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.



Quote of the Day
“It’s a beautiful day for a ballgame. Let’s play two today!”
Ernie Banks


Thursday’s quiz
In the history of baseball, what Hall of Famer threw the only no-hitter on Opening Day?


Wednesday’s quiz
2015 was last time three #1-seeds made the Final Four; Wisconsin, Kentucky, Duke.


Tuesday’s quiz
Last time Kelvin Sampson made it to the Final Four, he was coaching Oklahoma.


***********************


Thursday’s Den: Random thoughts on Opening Day


Before we start, happy birthday to my grandmother; today was her birthday. Very nice lady. Not sure April 1 is a great day for a birthday.


13) Will be fun to see fans in the stands; hopefully by the end of this season, stands will be full again, but for now, hearing real people cheer will be enough. Cardboard cutouts are cool, but they don’t make any noise.


For the record, the best cardboard cutout last year was the one in Kansas City of Bernie Lomax, the main character from the Weekend at Bernie’s movies.


12) Houston Astros made the expanded playoffs LY, despite a 29-31 record; how will they bounce back this year? They won the 2017 World Series, lost the ’19 Series in seven games; this year they’ll be without Verlander (hurt), Springer (free agent to Toronto).


Last year, Jose Altuve hit .219 in the regular season, then hit 18-48 (.375) in playoffs, so we’ll see what this year brings.


11) Baseball has done a very smart thing, letting players watch video of their at-bats on iPads during the game. Players couldn’t do that last year- from what you hear on TV, it hampered some hitters, who are creatures of habit. Baseball wants more offense, right?


10) Los Angeles Dodgers are loaded; they won World Series LY for first time since 1988, and appear to be headed that way again this year, especially after adding pitching ace Trevor Bauer as a free agent.


Their TV guys have been fairly cocky this spring; on how many teams would David Price or Tony Gonsolin not be in the starting rotation?


9) Seattle and the Angels are two teams that will apparently use 6-man pitching rotations this season, somehow new to MLB. Teams in Japan do this; starters generally pitch once a week.


Teams are guarding against ramping up a pitcher’s innings too much from one year to the next; for instance, Seattle’s Marco Gonzales threw 69.1 IP LY; he threw 203 the year before. Doubtful they want him ramping back up to 203 until next season.


8) Steve Cohen is the new owner of the Mets; supposedly, Bobby Axelrod on Showtime’s Billions was modeled after Cohen, a wildly successful hedge fund trader. In other words, he is really, really rich.


Cohen’s Mets offered newly-acquired SS Francisco Lindor $320M for 10 years; Lindor’s people are asking for 12 years, $385M. We’ll see how that works out.


LATE UPDATE: Here’s how it worked out: Lindor signed a 10-year deal for $341M Wednesday night.


7) Umpire Ángel Hernández lost his lawsuit against MLB alleging racial discrimination; hired as a big league umpire in 1993, the Cuban-born Hernandez alleged he was discriminated against because he had not been assigned to the World Series since 2005 and had been passed over for crew chief.


From the judge who decided the case:
“The explicit reason MLB offers — that according to (Joe) Torre, Hernández ‘has not demonstrated the leadership ability and situation-management skills in critical high-pressure roles on a consistent basis’ — is presented in clear and specific terms.”


In other words, Hernandez should be glad he has a lucrative job that he doesn’t do very well.


6) Colorado Rockies traded star 3B Nolan Arenado to St Louis, and with SS Trevor Story headed for free agency, he could be the next to leave Denver, which can’t make fans in Denver happy.


Are the Rockies headed for a total rebuild? Colorado won 87-91 games in 2017/’18, but now they’re looking like a doormat.


5) Can Giancarlo Stanton/Aaron Judge stay healthy this season?
— Last two years, Stanton played a total of 41 regular season games.
— Last three years, Judge played 112-102-28 games.
— Stanton went 8-26 with six homers in seven playoff games LY; they need him for six months, not seven games.


4) Angels have lot of hitting, lot of star power; Trout, Pujols, Rendon, Ohtani, but pitching is important in baseball and the Angels don’t have much of that.


In 12 games as a major league pitcher, Ohtani has given up 26 runs in 53.1 IP; there is very little evidence that he’ll be a good major league pitcher.


3) Lot of hype around the Padres/White Sox; there is no doubt that 76-year Tony LaRussa’s return to the dugout will be fascinating to follow in Chicago.


LaRussa hasn’t managed since 2011; he’s won three World Series as a skipper, but the world is a different place than it was 10 years ago. He did a dugout interview during a spring training game a few days ago and it…….um…….didn’t go well.


Random LaRussa trivia; he pinch-hit for the A’s in their first-ever home game in Oakland, way back in 1968.


2) Baseball needs the universal DH, for a few reasons:
— They want more scoring; pitchers can’t hit
— They want more balls in play; DH’s put balls in play
— Pitchers get hurt hitting/running the bases. Not good.


1) I’ll be looking at how the new experimental rules work once the minor leagues get rolling in May; I like the anti-shifting rules, the pitch-clock thing isn’t necessary. The 3-batter minimum for relievers is a great rule.


I can’t stand the extra inning rules or 7-inning doubleheaders. Media guys like shorter extra innings, since it makes their job easier, but to me it cheapens the game.


As for the automated strike zone, no thank you!!! Just let umpires do their jobs, and hire better umpires than Angel Hernandez.
 

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C/Note.......here's to a solid and profitable season buddy..........indy
 

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Friday’s 6-pack
Top six states in sports betting handle for this February:

$743M— New Jersey
$554M— Nevada
$510M— Pennsylvania
$326M— Michigan
$274M— Indiana
$266.5M— Colorado


Americans who have died from COVID-19: 550,903
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.



Quote of the Day
“The transfer portal is a huge part of the college game and will continue to be.”
UNLV coach Kevin Kruger


Friday’s quiz
Which active player has the most career home runs against the Oakland A’s?


Thursday’s quiz
In the history of baseball, Bob Feller threw the only no-hitter on Opening Day, in 1940.


Wednesday’s quiz
2015 was last time three #1-seeds made the Final Four; Wisconsin, Kentucky, Duke.


********************


Friday’s Den: Wrapping up Opening Day
Lot of stuff happened Thursday; we’ll stick with baseball today, get to the rest tomorrow.


13) Colorado 8, Dodgers 5:
— Cody Bellinger hit a home run that deflected off the left fielder’s glove, but the runner on base thought the LF caught the ball, so he went back to first and Bellinger passed him, which means Bellinger was called out— the baserunner scored.
— Chris Owings had three hits, scored three times for the Rockies.


12) Pirates 5, Chicago 3:
— Both starting P’s threw 63 pitches in three IP on a 36-degree day.
— Kyle Hendricks walked a batter in three consecutive innings, first time he’s ever done that.
— Pirates were 3-20 with runners in scoring position, Cubs 0-5


11) Philadelphia 3, Braves 2 (10)
— Phillies’ new-look bullpen threw 3.1 scoreless innings.
— Jean Segura’s single to left field in 10th inning was the walk-off hit.
— Pablo Sandoval hit a pinch-hit HR for Atlanta’s only runs.


10) San Diego 8, Diamondbacks 7:
— Hosmer had three hits, three RBI for San Diego.
— Bumgarner gave up six runs in four IP for Arizona.
— Arizona was down 6-1, scored six runs in the 5th, but couldn’t hold the lead.


9) Cardinals 11, Cincinnati 6:
— St Louis is first team since the 2010 Braves to score 6+ runs in first inning on Opening Day.
— Castillo gave up 10 runs in 3.1 IP.
— Goldschmidt/Arenado went a combined 6-10, scored four runs.


8) Blue Jays 3, Bronx 2 (10)
— Toronto wore powder blue road jerseys, like teams wore in the 70’s/80’s.
— Top four batters in the New York lineup went 1-18 with eight K’s.
— Sanchez hit a 2-run homer for New York’s only runs.


7) Detroit 3, Indians 2:
— Miguel Cabrera hit his 488th career home run.
— It snowed during first three innings of this game.
— Cesar Hernández had the first hit in the major leagues this year.


6) Kansas City 14, Rangers 10:
— Game was 5-5 after the first inning; not much pitching.
— Two starting pitchers combined to get five outs, give up 11 runs.
— Merrfield, Isbel, Taylor all had three hits for the Royals.


5) Rays 1, Miami 0:
— Meadows hit an 8th-inning homer for the game’s only run.
— Glasnow, Alcantara both threw six shutout innings.
— Aguilar had two of Miami’s three hits.


4) Milwaukee 6, Twins 5 (10):
— Five of Milwaukee’s six runs were unearned.
— Brewers scored three runs in 9th to force extra innings.
— Josh Donaldson (hamstring) left this game very early on.


3) Angels 4, White Sox 3:
— Angels scored twice in bottom of 8th inning.
— Angels gave 2B Fletcher a 5-year, $26M extension Thursday.
— Only two starting pitchers all day got wins: Boyd/Greinke.


2) Astros 8, A’s 1:
— Brantley had single, double, homer for Houston.
— Greinke threw six shutout innings, allowing 3 baserunners.
— A’s bullpen gave up five runs in 3.2 IP.
 

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917LA DODGERS -918 COLORADO
COLORADO is 717-771 SU (-131.1 Units) in home games when the total is 10 or higher since 1996.

919ARIZONA -920 SAN DIEGO
SAN DIEGO is 117-200 SU (-103 Units) in home games as a favorite of -150 or more since 1996.

923HOUSTON -924 OAKLAND
OAKLAND is 48-38 SU (6.2 Units) in home games when the total is 8.5 to 10 in the last 3 seasons.

929BALTIMORE -930 BOSTON
BOSTON is 28-50 SU (-27 Units) against left-handed starters in the last 3 seasons.



 

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MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, April 2



Not a lot to go on for the first 7-10 days, but we’ll do what we can. Once the season gets rolling, we’ll be posting what I think is the most relevant information for each game.

NL games
Dodgers (0-1) @ Rockies (1-0)

Bauer is 0-1, 3.86 in three starts vs Colorado, 0-1, 10.80 in one start at Coors Field.

Senzatela is 3-3, 5.74 in 10 games (8 starts) vs LA.

Diamondbacks (0-1) @ Padres (1-0)
Kelly is 5-1, 2.75 in 7 starts vs San Diego; he is 3-1, 3.48 in four starts at Petco.

Snell threw six shutout innings in his only start vs Arizona.

AL games
Orioles (0-0) @ Red Sox (0-0)

Means is 3-2, 4.46 in seven games (6 starts) vs Boston, 1-1, 6.08 in three games (2 starts) at Fenway.

Eovaldi is 6-1, 4.15 in 12 starts vs Baltimore.

White Sox (0-1) @ Angels (1-0)
Keuchel is 12-2, 3.36 in 17 starts against the Angels, 8-1, 3.26 in 12 starts at Anaheim.

Heaney is 3-0, 2.85 in five starts vs Chicago.

Astros (1-0) @ A’s (0-1)
Javier is 0-2, 7.88 in two starts vs Oakland, both in the Coliseum.

Luzardo is 1-0, 2.87 in three games (2 starts) against the Astros.

Interleague games
Rays (1-0) @ Marlins (0-1)

Yarbrough is 0-1, 2.63 in three games (two starts) against the Marlins, 0-0, 1.86 in two starts at Miami.

Lopez is 1-2, 3.33 in three starts vs Tampa Bay.

Giants (0-1) @ Mariners (1-0)
Cueto is 2-1, 2.41 in three starts vs Seattle, 0-1, 1.59 in one start at Safeco.

Kikuchi has never pitched against San Francisco.




 

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MLB

Friday, April 2


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Tampa Bay @ Miami
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
Tampa Bay is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing Miami
Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

LA Dodgers @ Colorado
LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Dodgers's last 8 games on the road
LA Dodgers is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games
Colorado
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Colorado's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Colorado's last 9 games at home

Chi White Sox @ LA Angels
Chi White Sox

The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chi White Sox's last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Angels
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chi White Sox's last 8 games
LA Angels
LA Angels is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Angels's last 7 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox

Houston @ Oakland
Houston
Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oakland's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing Houston

Arizona @ San Diego
Arizona
Arizona is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Arizona is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games at home
San Diego is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona

San Francisco @ Seattle
San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games
Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing San Francisco
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home



------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------





 

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Saturday’s 6-pack
Six of the better “17th game” NFL matchups this season:
— Packers @ Chiefs
— Cowboys @ Patriots
— Seahawks @ Steelers
— Buccaneers @ Colts
— Rams @ Ravens
— Saints @ Titans

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 553,980
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.


Quote of the Day
“I’m really tired of seeing them complain about the lack of pay, because they’re doing themselves a disservice by just complaining. They’re not laying out steps that they can take to change that.”
Draymond Green, complaining about WNBA players complaining

Saturday’s quiz
Which current major leaguer has a dad who hit two grand slams in one inning in a major league game?

Friday’s quiz
Of active players, Mike Trout (38) has the most career home runs against the Oakland A’s.

Thursday’s quiz
In the history of baseball, Bob Feller threw the only no-hitter on Opening Day, in 1940.

*************************

Saturday’s Den: Clearing out a cluttered mind……..
Its been a busy few days, even beyond baseball starting:

13) North Carolina basketball coach Roy Williams retired, with 903 career wins, 485 for the Tar Heels, 418 at Kansas. He won’t be easily replaced; where does North Carolina turn from here?

My guess is former Tar Heel player Wes Miller, who is coach at NC-Greensboro; last five years, he’s gone 125-43 with the Spartans of the Southern Conference.

Back to Roy Williams for a minute; he seems like a genuinely nice person in addition to being a great coach. I remember reading a article where he read a book about golf— I think Rick Reilly wrote the book, but Williams really liked it, so he bought 20 copies of it and gave them to his friends. There aren’t enough nice person in today’s world: Roy Williams will be missed.

12) Kansas Jayhawks gave Bill Self a lifetime contract this week, despite Kansas not having an AD right now. I guess the school’s chancellor stepped in and did the deal.

Pat Forde of Sports Illustrated wrote this about what the contract says about Kansas: “We like to win, we don’t care how, we don’t care what NCAA sanctions may come, we don’t care about anything but continuing to win.”

Kansas is headed towards some type of probation because of recruiting violations, but Self’s new contract says that he cannot be fired for cause due to NCAA sanctions.

11) As I starting writing this piece, Oklahoma tabbed Porter Moser as its next basketball coach, replacing the retired Lon Kruger. Moser went 178-141 in 10 years at Loyola, going 99-36 the last four years, including a run to the Final Four in 2018.

One of the interesting things about college hoop is how teams take advantage of circumstances to become relevant. Creighton left the MVC in 2013, Wichita State in 2017; they had dominated the Valley before moving on to greener pa$ture$. Loyola’s 56-16 run in MVC games the last four years coincide with Wichita State moving elsewhere.

10) Then there is Texas Tech, which got kicked in the teeth this week when Chris Beard left the Red Raiders to become the new coach at rival Texas, his alma mater. Bears was a student assistant to Tom Penders with the Longhorns in the early 90’s.

Beard went 112-55 in five years at Tech, after a 30-5 season at Little Rock. Texas has won one NCAA Tournament game in the last decade (1-6). Beard will be expected to win more than that.

9) Chris Ogden quit his job as HEAD COACH at Texas-Arlington, to become one of Beard’s ASSISTANTS at Texas. Ogden was 44-47 in three years at UTA, after they canned Scott Cross, who went 72-33 in his last three years with the Mavericks. Cross is now the coach at Troy- he knocked Ogden’s Arlington team out of the Sun Belt tournament last month.

8) Washington Wizards’ Russell Westbrook a triple-double earlier this week, the first one ever where the guy scored 35+ points and had 20+ assists in the same game. He had 35 points, 21 assists, 14 rebounds; he must’ve had the ball a lot, that’s for sure.

Most importantly, Washington beat the Pacers 132-124.

7) Utah Jazz had a scary night this week, when their flight to Memphis struck a flock of birds during takeoff, damaging the left engine of the plane. There was a loud sound like an explosion, flames coming out of the engine and visible damage. Then the plane started to tilt and slowly lose altitude.

Players were actually texting their families, saying their goodbyes; luckily, the flight turned around and made an emergency landing back in Salt Lake City. The rest of the team got on a rescheduled flight to Memphis, but star Donovan Mitchell, who apparently hates flying in the first place, stayed home and skipped that game, which the Jazz won anyway.

6) ESPN signed 81-year old Dick Vitale to a new, 2-year contract to continue working for them; they need to tell him to stop pouring that cooler of water over his head that does in the GEICO commercial— a guy can catch pneumonia.

Not sure if everyone nows this, but Dick Vitale was a really good coach before he worked on TV; he was an assistant coach at Rutgers who recruited a lot of the players who formed the nucleus of their Final Four squad in 1976.

From there, he went 78-30 as head coach at Detroit, finishing ranked #12 in the country in his last season there. He went 34-60 in a brief stint coaching the NBA’s Detroit Pistons.

The man has amazing energy, even now; he’s helped raise over $100M to fight cancer. At times he is tough to listen to, but damn, he’s had a hell of a career.

5) DePaul hired Oregon assistant Tony Stubblefield as its new basketball coach; they haven’t made the NCAA Tournament since 2004. Since 2008, the Blue Demons are 43-206 in Big East conference games, which is, as we like to say, no bueno.

Stubblefield just turned 51; he’s never been a head coach, though he was an interim coach at New Mexico State in 2005, when Lou Henson got sick. He worked as an assistant under Mick Cronin at Cincinnati.

4) The clusterbleep of the year may be at East Tennessee State, where coach Jason Shay was told to take a hike this week- they say he “resigned” but guys don’t quit after their first year as a head coach, not a guy who waited until he was 47 to become a head coach.

East Tennessee’s players took a knee during the national anthem before a few games this year, which ticked off boosters/state politicians, who publicly said so. Shay backed the players; if you want to be a successful coach, you back your players, especially when they’re right.

Shay went 13-12 in his one year as a head coach; he had assisted Steve Forbes for the five years before that, when ETSU went 130-43, going 71-19 in SoCon games.

East Tennessee’s decision makers have some questions to answer:
— Who do they hire from here?
— Who would want this job, if you fired Shay for supporting his players?
— Do the ETSU decision makers want to win?
— If you get a reputation as a racist organization, how do you recruit basketball players?

3) NFL’s Los Angeles Chargers have some internal issues involving the Spanos family, which owns the team. Chargers have to start paying a $650M relocation fee to the NFL pretty soon; they can’t sell the team just yet— the NFL will penalize them even more money if they move the team too quickly after bolting up the freeway to LA— its called a “flip tax”.

In a November 2019 letter included with a court filing, Dean Spanos vowed to his three siblings that he would retain an investment bank at the end of the 2024 season in an effort to find a new owner- by 2024, the “flip tax” wouldn’t be relevant anymore.

But Spanos’ sister says the family’s finances are such that the team needs to be sold before that; the family has owned the Chargers since 1984. If you go broke while you own an NFL franchise, you’re a candidate for the Moron Hall of Fame.

There is a rumor that when the team is sold, they could move back to San Diego, which happens to be the 8th-biggest city in America.

2) In 1979, the Kansas City Royals drafted both John Elway and Dan Marino, which would be great, if the Royals were an NFL team. But they’re a baseball team; Elway played a year for Oneonta in the NY-Penn League, after New York drafted him in the 2nd round of the 1981 draft.

1) Amazing Fact of the Day: Tampa Bay won its season opener 1-0 at Miami Thursday; it is the first time since 1946 that a road team won 1-0 on Opening Day!!!!

Back then, Bob Feller blanked the White Sox on three hits at Comiskey Park; former major league manager Bob Lemon played CF for Cleveland that day.

Additional thing that happened Friday: this weekend’s Mets-Nationals series was cancelled, due to four Washington players testing positive for COVID.
 

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951PITTSBURGH -952 CHICAGO CUBS
PITTSBURGH is 460-435 SU (-18.5 Units) in road games against division opponents since 1996.

953ATLANTA -954 PHILADELPHIA
ATLANTA is 11-2 SU (8.8 Units) in road games after scoring 2 runs or less over the last 2 seasons.

957ST LOUIS -958 CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI is 22-8 SU (13.2 Units) after allowing 8 runs or more in the last 3 seasons.

959LA DODGERS -960 COLORADO
COLORADO is 718-771 SU (-130.1 Units) in home games when the total is 10 or higher since 1996.

961ARIZONA -962 SAN DIEGO
SAN DIEGO is 19-10 SU (8 Units) in home games against left-handed starters in the last 3 seasons.

963TORONTO -964 NY YANKEES
TORONTO is 448-428 SU (-22.8 Units) in road games after a win since 1996.

965CLEVELAND -966 DETROIT
DETROIT is 25-52 SU (-32.2 Units) in home games when the total is 8.5 to 10 in the last 3 seasons.

967BALTIMORE -968 BOSTON
BOSTON is 41-68 SU (-33.8 Units) in home games in all games in the last 3 seasons.

969TEXAS -970 KANSAS CITY
TEXAS are 2-10 SU (-9 Units) in road games after a game where the bullpen was hit hard for 4 or more earned runs in the last 3 seasons.

971HOUSTON -972 OAKLAND
HOUSTON is 27-9 SU (17.1 Units) when playing with a day off in the last 3 seasons.
 

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Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, April 3


Not a lot to go on for the first 7-10 days, but we’ll do what we can. Once the season gets rolling, we’ll be posting what I think is the most relevant information for each game.

NL games
Pirates (1-0) @ Cubs (0-1)

TAnderson is 2-0, 4.05 in three starts vs Chicago; he is 1-0, 2.57 in one start at Wrigley.

Arrieta is 12-6, 2.93 in 23 career starts vs Pittsburgh.

Braves (0-1) @ Phillies (1-0)
Morton is 2-3, 6.17 in seven starts vs Philly; he is 2-2, 4.23 in five starts here.

Wheeler is 6-5, 3.79 in 16 starts vs Atlanta.

Cardinals (1-0) @ Reds (0-1)
Wainwright is 10-13, 5.12 in 34 games (29 starts) vs Cincinnati; he is 7-5, 4.96 in 17 starts here.

Mahle is 1-3, 5.45 in eight starts vs St Louis.

Dodgers (1-1) @ Rockies (1-1)
Buehler is 5-2, 4.07 in 16 games (12 starts) vs Colorado, 1-1, 5.12 in seven games (5 starts) at Coors Field.

Gray is 5-6, 4.62 in 15 starts vs LA.

Diamondbacks (0-2) @ Padres (2-0)
Smith is 2-1, 2.01 in four starts vs San Diego; he is 1-1, 2.25 in two starts at Petco.

Musgrove is 1-1, 3.70 in five games (4 starts) vs Arizona.

AL games
Orioles (1-0) @ Red Sox (0-1)

Harvey threw six shutout innings in his only career start vs Boston.

Houck hasn’t pitched against Baltimore.

Blue Jays (1-0) @ Bronx (0-1)
Stripling is 0-2, 4.50 in three appearances vs New York, all in relief (10 IP).

Kluber is 2-3, 4.46 in six starts vs Toronto.

Indians (0-1) @ Tigers (1-0)
Plesac is 2-0, 0.51 in three starts against the Tigers, 1-0, 1.00 in one start at Detroit.

Teheran is 0-1, 9.64 in one start vs Cleveland.

Rangers (0-1) @ Royals (1-0)
Arihara is making his first MLB start.

Minor is 0-2, 6.30 in four games (1 start) vs Texas.

White Sox (1-1) @ Angels (1-1)
Lynn is 4-2, 3.58 in nine starts against the Angels, 0-2, 5.11 in four starts at Anaheim.

Cobb is 0-3, 13.89 in three starts vs Chicago.

Astros (2-0) @ A’s (0-2)
McCullers is 5-2, 4.04 in nine starts vs Oakland, 2-0, 4.96 in three starts at the Coliseum.

Irwin is making his Oakland debut; he hasn’t pitched against Houston.

Interleague games
Rays (2-0) @ Marlins (0-2)

Hill is 2-1, 4.67 in four games (three starts) against the Marlins, 2-0, 0.75 in two starts at Miami.

Hernandez allowed five runs in six IP in three games (1 start) vs Tampa Bay.

Twins (0-1) @ Brewers (1-0)
Berrios is 1-1, 2.08 in two starts vs Milwaukee, 0-1, 3.86 in one start at Miller Park.

Burnes is 1-0, 1.50 in two games (1 start) vs Minnesota.

Giants (1-1) @ Mariners (1-1)
Webb allowed five runs in five IP in his one start vs Seattle.

Flexen has never pitched against San Francisco.
 

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Messages
18,289
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MLB

Saturday, April 3


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Trend Report
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Toronto @ NY Yankees
Toronto
Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Yankees
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Yankees
NY Yankees
NY Yankees is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto
NY Yankees is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto

Baltimore @ Boston
Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Baltimore's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 7 games
Boston
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Boston's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games at home

Cleveland @ Detroit
Cleveland
Cleveland is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Cleveland is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games when playing Detroit
Detroit
Detroit is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games

Texas @ Kansas City
Texas
The total has gone UNDER in 18 of Texas's last 22 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Kansas City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

Pittsburgh @ Chi Cubs
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Chi Cubs
Chi Cubs
Chi Cubs is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi Cubs's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh

NY Mets @ Washington
NY Mets
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Mets's last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Mets's last 6 games on the road
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games

Atlanta @ Philadelphia
Atlanta
Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games on the road
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta

Houston @ Oakland
Houston
Houston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Oakland's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games at home

St. Louis @ Cincinnati
St. Louis
St. Louis is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games on the road
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 9 games at home

Tampa Bay @ Miami
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
Tampa Bay is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games when playing Miami
Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay

Minnesota @ Milwaukee
Minnesota
Minnesota is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota

LA Dodgers @ Colorado
LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 8 of LA Dodgers's last 9 games on the road
LA Dodgers is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games when playing Colorado
Colorado
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Colorado's last 5 games
Colorado is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

Arizona @ San Diego
Arizona
Arizona is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games
San Diego
San Diego is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona
San Diego is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

Chi White Sox @ LA Angels
Chi White Sox
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Chi White Sox's last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Angels
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Chi White Sox's last 9 games
LA Angels
The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Angels's last 8 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox
LA Angels is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox

San Francisco @ Seattle
San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing Seattle
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco


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Messages
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Tokens
Sunday’s 6-pack
Six more “17th game” NFL matchups this season:
— Eagles @ Jets
— Bears @ Raiders
— Vikings @ Chargers
— Giants @ Dolphins
— Lions @ Broncos
— Panthers @ Texans

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 554,522
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.


Quote of the Day
“Every day in shootaround before the game we shoot half-courters. I haven’t been making my half-courters, but I got it with confidence, put it up. It’s crazy. I can’t come to words right now.”
Gonzaga’s Jalen Suggs, Saturday night’s hero

Sunday’s quiz
When was the last time two #1-seeds faced off for the national championship?

Saturday’s quiz
Fernando Tatis Sr hit two grand slams in one inning in a major league game in the late 90’s, against the Dodgers. Oddly, he hit both of them off the same pitcher.

Friday’s quiz
Of active players, Mike Trout (38) has the most career home runs against the Oakland A’s.

***********************************************

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a fun day…….

13) Gonzaga 93, UCLA 90 OT:
— Suggs banked in a 3-pointer at the buzzer to win a tremendous game.
— Gonzaga shot 71.4% inside arc, scored 1.27 ppp- they were only 12-20 on foul line.
— This was UCLA’s 7th OT game this season; it was only Gonzaga’s second game this year decided by fewer than 10 points- the other one was December 2nd.

12) Baylor 78, Houston 59:
— Game was 45-20 at halftime.
— To win their region, Houston beat seeds #15-10-11-12.
— Baylor is 10-2 since their 21-day COVID shutdown.

11) Opening line for Monday’s championship game: Gonzaga, minus 5

10) In three days of major league baseball:
— Giants’ Johnny Cueto is only pitcher to throw 100+ pitches (105) in a game.
— Seattle’s Marco Gonzales, Chicago’s Lance Lynn both threw 99 pitches in their starts.

9) Tampa Bay pitcher Rich Hill is the only pitcher EVER to lose a perfect game in the 9th inning, when one of his fielders made an error. Later in that same game he became the only pitcher EVER to lose a no-hitter on a walk-off hit in extra innings.

Hill has thrown to 35 different catchers in his big league career; one of them was Kevin Cash, who is now his manager with the Rays.

8) Arizona Diamondback manager Tory Lovullo hit only 15 homers in his 8-year big league career (303 games); three of them were against Dwight Gooden, Roger Clemens, Jack Morris, all great pitchers.

7) WHIP is a stat that calculates how many baserunners a pitcher allows, but for whatever reason, hit batters aren’t counted- they should be.

6) MLB Network did a very smart thing and hired Buck Showalter to work games; he called a game with Matt Vasgersian Friday night, and pointed out that on Opening Day, there were 256 players on major league rosters who weren’t born in this country, that is 8.5 per team.

5) Showalter offered an interesting player comp: Tampa Bay’s Randy Arozarena and the old Houston outfielder Jimmy Wynn, known back then as the Toy Cannon. Wynn hit 291 homers, stole 225 bases in his 15-year big league career, playing in three All-Star Games.

4) Major League Baseball moved this July’s All-Star Game out of Atlanta for political reasons, heading off a probable showdown with the Players’ Association had they not done that. No word on where the game will be played now.

3) Third day of baseball season, and two of the three outfielders on my fantasy team left their game with injuries/illness. Awesome.

2) Since start of last season, Chicago White Sox are 15-0 against lefty starting pitchers.

1) Dodgers’ president Andrew Friedman was on TV the other night, and admitted that no one is really sure how the 2021 season is going to play out, as far as pitcher usage goes. Last year was obviously a short season, so pitchers will throw a lot more this year than they did last year, but how much more? No one knows.
 

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Jun 22, 2009
Messages
18,289
Tokens
903ATLANTA -904 PHILADELPHIA
PHILADELPHIA is 31-34 SU (-6.4 Units) as an underdog of +100 to +150 in the last 3 seasons.

905ST LOUIS -906 CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI is 489-454 SU (-10.4 Units) in home games when the money line is +125 to -125 since 1996.

907PITTSBURGH -908 CHICAGO CUBS
PITTSBURGH is 460-435 SU (-18.5 Units) in road games against division opponents since 1996.

909LA DODGERS -910 COLORADO
COLORADO is 146-134 SU (-1.4 Units) at home when the total is 12 to 12.5 since 1996.

911ARIZONA -912 SAN DIEGO
SAN DIEGO is 118-201 SU (-103.1 Units) in home games as a favorite of -150 or more since 1996.

913TORONTO -914 NY YANKEES
NY YANKEES are 17-5 SU (11.5 Units) in home games as a favorite of -150 or more over the last 2 seasons.

915CLEVELAND -916 DETROIT
DETROIT is 25-52 SU (-32.2 Units) in home games when the total is 8.5 to 10 in the last 3 seasons.

919TEXAS -920 KANSAS CITY
TEXAS are 318-320 SU (-34 Units) in road games in day games since 1996.

921HOUSTON -922 OAKLAND
HOUSTON is 27-9 SU (17.1 Units) when playing with a day off in the last 3 seasons.

923CHI WHITE SOX -924 LA ANGELS
LA ANGELS are 245-222 SU (0.8 Units) in home games when the money line is +125 to -125 since 1996.
 

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