Cnotes 2020-2021 nfl season - news - notes - picks !

[CNOTES]

NFL odds Week 3: Opening lines, sharp money & line movement
Patrick Everson


Lamar Jackson and the Ravens will face a stern Monday night test at home against the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs. The SuperBook installed Baltimore as a 3-point favorite.


NFL Week 2 is almost in the books, NFL Week 3 odds are on the board and already getting some attention. Among the marquee matchups is a massive Monday nighter between the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens.


The SuperBook at Westgate's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 3 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting. Covers will update this report with NFL sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the week.


NFL Week 3 odds


These are the current NFL Week 3 odds, as of September 20.

Dolphins at Jaguars odds


Opening line
Jaguars -2, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Jacksonville is 1-1 SU, but cashed in in its first two games, losing to Tennessee 33-30 Sunday but covering as a 7-point road underdog. Miami is out of the gate 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS, getting a last-minute touchdown Sunday to cover as a 5.5-point home 'dog in a 31-28 loss to the Bills.


So John Murray and his oddsmaking team at The SuperBook made the Jags modest 2-point favorites at home for the Thursday night tilt, and there was apparently a little early Jacksonville interest, as the line went to Jags -2.5.




Raiders at Patriots odds


Opening line
Patriots -6.5, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
"We opened the Patriots -6.5 and didn’t take much action on it before pulling it down when the Sunday night game kicked off," Murray said Sunday night. It's The SuperBook's standard practice to take a game down when a team is involved in the Sunday night conttest, as the Patriots were against the Seahawks.


"It's a short week for the Raiders and a tough traveling spot, with them going east in Week 1, then back here for the Monday Night Football game, and then back out to the East Coast for an early kickoff."




Rams at Bills odds


Opening line
Bills -3.5, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
The Bills are out of the gate 2-0 SU (1-1 ATS), but so are the Rams, who cashed in both games, including a 37-19 victory at Philadelphia on Sunday. Although the Rams are playing back east two consecutive weeks, the first move at The SuperBook was toward Los Angeles, from +3.5 to +3 Sunday night.




Texans at Steelers odds


Opening line
Steelers -6, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
There was no movement Sunday night, though Murray expressed some sympathy for Houston, with its tough early-season schedule. "I don’t know what the Texans did to deserve an opening three weeks of at Chiefs, home against Ravens and at Steelers."




49ers at Giants odds


Opening line
Giants +4, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
There was no move in this game Sunday night at The SuperBook, but Murray said setting the opening number was a little challenging, due to key injuries on both sides. There's concern that Giants running back Saquon Barkley may have torn an ACL in Sunday's loss to the Bears, so he could be lost for the season.


Likewise, 49ers star defensive end is also thought to have a torn ACL suffered in Sunday's win over the Jets. And San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo has a high ankle sprain, so his status for Week 3 is uncertain.


"Those guys (on the 49ers) are worth a couple points, and then Barkley is worth half-a-point to a point," Murray said, noting The SuperBook probably would've opened the Niners at -6 if not for the injury issues.




Titans at Vikings odds


Opening line
Vikings +2.5, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
The SuperBook gave Tennessee the nod as short road chalk, but the first move was to the home 'dog Minnesota, as this line moved to Titans -2 Sunday night.




Washington at Browns odds


Opening line
Browns -6.5, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
There was no movement Sunday night at The SuperBook.




Bengals at Eagles odds


Opening line
Eagles -5.5, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
With the opener of 5.5 a relatively dead number, it appears The SuperBook just wanted to see which way bettors would take it. And they took it toward the Eagles, as the line ticked up to -6 Sunday night.




Bears at Falcons odds


Opening line
Falcons -3, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
This line saw no movement Sunday night, but many observers think the Atlanta sideline should see some movement this week – as in, coach Dan Quinn should be fired. The Falcons blew a 39-24 fourth-quarter lead at Dallas, including allowing an onside kick recovery that led to the Cowboys' game-winning field goal as time expired. That marked the only time Dallas led Sunday.




Jets at Colts odds


Opening line
Colts -9, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
Indianapolis (1-1 SU and ATS) rolled over visiting Minnesota 28-11 laying 3.5 points Sunday, while New York fell to 0-2 SU and ATS in a 31-13 home loss to San Francisco. It seems like this number is high, but The SuperBook went a little higher still Sunday night, with the first move to Colts -9.5.




Panthers at Chargers odds


Opening line
Chargers -6.5, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
There was no line movement at The SuperBook on Sunday night, although Los Angeles was certainly impressive as it fell just short to Kansas City in overtime earlier in the day.




Lions at Cardinals odds


Opening line
Cardinals -5.5, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
Another game that opens at 5.5 and quickly moves toward the favorite. Arizona is out to a 2-0 SU and ATS start, and early bettors were impressed enough to help move the line to -6.5 Sunday night.




Buccaneers at Broncos odds


Opening line
Broncos +5.5, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
The Broncos could very well be without QB Drew Lock, who suffered a shoulder injury in Sunday's loss to Pittsburgh. So another game that opens 5.5 moved toward the favorite, in this case the visiting Buccaneers, who went to -6 Sunday night.




Cowboys at Seahawks odds


Opening line
Seahawks -4.5, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
"We opened the Seahawks -4.5 and took some money on Dallas right away," Murray said, noting the game came off the board shortly thereafter, since the Seahawks were playing the Sunday nighter against the Patriots. "There should be good two-way action here. Gotta keep a close eye on the injury report for Dallas."




Packers at Saints odds


Opening line
Saints -3.5, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
"We opened Saints -3.5 and took some money both ways," Murray said of action on Sunday night. "The Packers look like they’re a lot better than we realized coming into the season, but we don’t want to overreact too much to their wins over the Vikings and Lions."




Chiefs at Ravens odds


Opening line
Ravens -3, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
"These are pretty clearly the two best teams in the NFL, and this looks to be the game of the year, at least as far as the regular season is concerned," Murray said. "We have the Ravens as a slightly better team than the Chiefs and the home-field advantage bumps it to Baltimore as a 3-point favorite to open. There was no discussion on this line. Everyone in the room made it Baltimore -3. It looks like all the other books agreed."


And as of late Sunday night, there was no line movement, either.

 

[CNOTES]

Hot & Not Report - Week 3
Matt Blunt


NFL Week 3 Betting Angles


Two weeks of the season has already come and gone, and before you know it we will be at Halloween, eight weeks will have gone by and you'll still be doing preseason prep for the Pac-12.


Week 3 is one of my favorite weeks of the NFL season though because the first impressions and subsequent follow ups have already been seen, and perspectives on teams are starting to take some sort of shape. Two games worth of box scores begin to form more data, and yet every season the same things seem to hold true in Week 3 every year.


So it's into the archives for an updated version of a popular piece last year as there is no reason to change. It performed well once again. It's all about the spread record for Week 3 road teams and if they've got a goose egg in one column, you'll want to take it to crack.


Who's Hot


Week 3 road teams that are 0-2 ATS to start the year are 15-4 ATS in Week 3 the past four seasons, including 6-1 ATS a year ago


Brought this one up at the right time a season ago with a nice 6-1 ATS mark this week, and the 2020 season brings us another strong list of candidates. Some of these teams are even up against some perfect 2-0 ATS teams as well.


Who do you Follow?


Cowboys
Jets
Texans
Titans
Panthers
Lions


This means that plays on Dallas (+4.5) at Seattle, the NY Jets (+10.5) at Indianapolis, Houston (+4) at Pittsburgh, Tennessee (-2.5) at Minnesota, Carolina (+7.5) at LA Chargers, and Detroit (+5.5) at Arizona all should be considered for the card.


A couple of those lines still can have the look of ones that are a little too steeped in a two-week snap judgement and different weighing injuries can be. Carolina's going to be missing McCaffrey which is behind that number getting over a TD as part of the latter, and the Jets may not be as bad as they seem if you believe Buffalo's a contender this year and the catching an angry 49ers team who just happened to be 0-1 SU after losing the Super Bowl.


At the same time, as someone who has the Vikings to make the Super Bowl an 0-2 SU start in the fashion it's gone down for the Vikings has not gone over well, and I'm not quite ready to write them off yet either. Tennessee's managed to let two teams hang around when they probably shouldn't have too, and laying points on the road with a team you know has kicking issues never feels comfortable.

The cases for taking the points in five of those six games where it applies is something that won't take much work to have me on board, but there probably isn't much of a hurry to rush to grab these ugly dogs either. Carolina and the Jets are likely to get very little support overall, and I don't know how much market sentiment is left to make many want to back the Lions and Texans led by Matt Patricia and Bill O'Brien respectively.


Dallas is always going to be a public darling regardless, but up against Russell Wilson and his MVP chatter already making the rounds, that overwhelming Dallas money is probably going to be more balanced. That spread isn't likely to be moving too far either way.


But after seven games fit this role a season ago and it produced at that 85% clip, it was time to go right back to it and see how the six games that qualify this year end up treating the bankrolls.


Who's Not


Week 3 road teams that are 2-0 ATS are 4-9 ATS the past four years; 1-0 ATS in 2019


This is not going to have the large volume of plays that the other run does, as of the nine teams that are 2-0 ATS, the majority of them are at home in Week 3.


Who do you Fade?


Packers
Rams
Raiders


But this would imply that fading the Packers (+4.5) vs New Orleans and the Los Angeles Rams (+2.5/3) at Buffalo should be other options to be considered, as should looking to go against the Raiders (+6) at New England after they defeated the Saints on Monday Night Football.


Monday's impressive win by the Raiders over the Saints in their Las Vegas home opener could open up the flood gates for plenty of generic Green Bay love as a downgrade on the Saints more then anything, but I'm sure the Raiders may come off that +6 number as well.


The loss for the Saints likely still brings plenty of Packers love, but Patriots backers are probably going to want to look to get that play down sooner rather then later with New England looking just fine through two games of the Cam Newton era.


Finally, playing against the Rams means you are playing on a strong Bills team that's remained undefeated and kept the backdoor open too long for the Dolphins to get the late ATS cover on Sunday. There are worse options every week then having a ticket that's got the Bills at home on it though.


However, it would only be backing the two AFC East teams of these three games that I think I'd end up putting on the card, as even with Packers love expected, I'm still not sure the Saints aren't being valued much higher than they should be.

 

[CNOTES]

Tech Trends - Week 3
Bruce Marshall


Thursday, Sept. 24


MIAMI at JACKSONVILLE (NFL Network, 8:20 p.m. ET)


After spread cover vs. Bills, Dolphins 10-4 vs. line last 14 since early 2019.
Jags now “over” 4 of last 5 as host after Indy opener and 2-0 “over” this season.


Tech edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.




Sunday, Sept. 27


L.A. RAMS at BUFFALO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)


Rams now 10-2 vs. spread their last 12 as visitor since late in 2018 campaign, and they have won and covered seven straight in early kickoffs in Eastern Time Zone (or London).
Bills 4-6 last ten as Orchard Park chalk.


Tech edge: Rams, based on team trends.




LAS VEGAS at NEW ENGLAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)


Raiders have now covered last 3 and 6 of last 9 as visitor after opening win at Carolina.
Raiders had closed 2019 “under” 6 of last 7 before “overs” vs. Panthers and Saints.
Into last Sunday night at Seattle, Belichick “under” 21-12 last 33 reg.-season games, also 21-10 as Gillette Stadium reg.-season chalk since 2016.


Tech edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.




HOUSTON at PITTSBURGH (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)


Texans now no covers last 4 as dog after covering 8 of previous 11 in role.
Steel now on 14-5 and 16-6 “under” runs after opener vs. G-Men, and 9-6 vs. spread last 15 at Heinz Field (much of that minus Big Ben LY).


Tech edge: Steelers and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.




SAN FRANCISCO at N.Y. GIANTS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

G-Men now no covers last 7 as MetLife dog after opener vs. Steel.
Niners 7-2 vs. spread as visitor since 2019.


Tech edge: Niners, based on team trends.




TENNESSEE at MINNESOTA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)


Titans entered 2020 on 9-4 spread uptick but have failed to cover first two in 2020.
Vikes “over” 9-4 last 13 reg.-season games.


Tech edge: “Over” and Titans, based on “totals” and team trends.




WASHINGTON at CLEVELAND (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)


Browns 0-2 vs. line for Stefanski after non-cover vs. Cincy, and Cleveland now 5-12-1 vs. line since 2019.


Tech edge: Football Team, based on Browns negatives.




CINCINNATI at PHILADELPHIA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)


Cincy now 5-3 as visiting dog since LY (not counting Rams in London) for Taylor and also on 5-1 “over” run.
Birds 5-14 vs. line last 18 at Linc, 4-10 last 13 as home chalk.
Philly was “under” last 7 at home in 2019 before “over” vs. Rams.


Tech edge: Bengals, based on team trends.




CHICAGO at ATLANTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)


Bears rallied for win in opener but no cover vs. G-Men last week and now 5-14 last 19 on board.
Chicago 1-4 as dog in 2019 but got the W in role in opener vs. Lions.
Falcs closed 2019 on 6-2 SU and spread rush.
Falcs dropped first two SU in 2020 (though did cover at Dallas).


Tech edge: slight to Falcons, based on recent trends.




N.Y. JETS at INDIANAPOLIS (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)


Jets only 3-7 vs. line last ten away (3-6 for Gase) after loss at Buffalo in opener.
NY did cover 5 of last 6 as dog in 2019 before loss vs. Bills, and also no cover as dog last week vs. Niners.
Philip Rivers 5-14 vs. line with Chargers and Colts since late 2018.


Tech edge: Slight to Jets, based on team trends.




CAROLINA at L.A. CHARGERS (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)


Bolts now in new stadium but were 1-8 vs. line their last nine at Carson from late 2018 thru 2019, all prior to cover vs. KC last week.
Bolts also “under” 6-1 last 7 as host since 2019, and were 2-8 LY as chalk, though did squeeze narrowest of covers in Cincy opener.
Panthers on 1-8-1 spread skid after opening losses vs. Raiders and Bucs, though also “over” 14-5 after first two in 2020.


Tech edge: “Over” and slight to Panthers, based on “totals” trends and extended Chargers home negatives.




DETROIT at ARIZONA (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)


Kingsbury now 12-5-1 vs. line with Cards after 2-0 start in 2020.
Note Cards only 0-1 as chalk in 2019, but handled role vs. Football team last week.
Lions on 6-12 spread skid since LY, and “over” 12-6 since 2019 after extended “under” run prior.


Tech edge: Cards and ”Over,” based on team and “totals” trends.




TAMPA BAY at DENVER (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)


Broncos 10-4 last 14 vs. points since early 2019 (covered first two in 2020 even though 0-2 SU), and now “under” 19-8 since mid-2018 (Fangio 10-8 “under” since LY).
If Denver a dog here note Fangio 7-2 last 9 in role. Bruce Arians only 6-11-1 vs. line with Bucs, and his teams “over” 29-12 last 41 with Cards & Bucs.


Tech edge: Ravens, based on team trends.




DALLAS at SEATTLE (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)


Dallas only 8-10 vs. line its last 18 as visitor, though Cowboys 6-1 last 7 as reg.-season dog.
Hawks entered 2020 just 2-7 vs. line last 9 as Seattle chalk.


Tech edge: Cowboys, based on team trends.




GREEN BAY at NEW ORLEANS (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)


Saints got money vs. Bucs in opener, though they were only 3-9 previous 12 as Superdome chalk.
Pack 3-0 as dog vs. teams other than 49ers last year.


Tech edge: Packers, based on team trends.




Monday, Sept. 28


KANSAS CITY at BALTIMORE (ESPN, 8:15 p.m. ET)


Chiefs stretched win and cover streak to 10 in opener vs. Texans, though failed to get money vs. Bolts last week.
Andy Reid also 9-2 as dog since 2017, and won close games at Arrowhead (but covered neither) the past two years vs. Baltimore.
Ravens however have won 14 straight reg.-season games SU, covering 11 of last 12.
Last three meetings “over” including LY.


Tech edge: “Over” and slight to Ravens, based on “totals” and team trends.

 

[CNOTES]

301MIAMI -302 JACKSONVILLE
MIAMI is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) in road games after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game since 1992.


461LAS VEGAS -462 NEW ENGLAND
NEW ENGLAND is 46-23 ATS (20.7 Units) after allowing >=30 pts. since 1992.


463LA RAMS -464 BUFFALO
LA RAMS are 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) with <=6 days rest in the last 2 seasons.


465HOUSTON -466 PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH is 27-10 ATS (16 Units) in home games after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992.


467SAN FRANCISCO -468 NY GIANTS
NY GIANTS are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games as a dog in the last 2 seasons.


469TENNESSEE -470 MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 36-18 ATS (16.2 Units) at home when the total is 45.5-49 since 1992.


471WASHINGTON -472 CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND is 7-21 ATS (-16.1 Units) in home games after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992.


473CINCINNATI -474 PHILADELPHIA
PHILADELPHIA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games after a loss in the last 3 seasons.


475CHICAGO -476 ATLANTA
CHICAGO is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after playing a game at home in the last 2 seasons.


477NY JETS -478 INDIANAPOLIS
NY JETS are 15-30 ATS (-18 Units) in road games after allowing >=30 pts. since 1992.


479CAROLINA -480 LA CHARGERS
CAROLINA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games after 2 straight overs in the last 3 seasons.


481DETROIT -482 ARIZONA
ARIZONA is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) at home when the total >=49.5 since 1992.


483TAMPA BAY -484 DENVER
TAMPA BAY is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game in the last 3 seasons.


485DALLAS -486 SEATTLE
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game in the last 3 seasons.


487GREEN BAY -488 NEW ORLEANS
GREEN BAY is 19-8 ATS (10.2 Units) off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a division rival since 1992.


489KANSAS CITY -490 BALTIMORE
KANSAS CITY is 12-4 ATS (7.6 Units) against conference opponents in the last 2 seasons.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Long Sheet


Week 3


Thursday, September 24


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MIAMI (0 - 2) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 1) - 9/24/2020, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, September 27


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LAS VEGAS (1 - 0) at NEW ENGLAND (1 - 1) - 9/27/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 271-209 ATS (+41.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 271-209 ATS (+41.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 208-153 ATS (+39.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 199-154 ATS (+29.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 131-91 ATS (+30.9 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LA RAMS (2 - 0) at BUFFALO (2 - 0) - 9/27/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS are 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LA RAMS are 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
LA RAMS are 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
LA RAMS are 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
LA RAMS are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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HOUSTON (0 - 2) at PITTSBURGH (2 - 0) - 9/27/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 110-81 ATS (+20.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 54-35 ATS (+15.5 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 1) at NY GIANTS (0 - 2) - 9/27/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (2 - 0) at MINNESOTA (0 - 2) - 9/27/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 36-18 ATS (+16.2 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 52-31 ATS (+17.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 55-31 ATS (+20.9 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WASHINGTON (1 - 1) at CLEVELAND (1 - 1) - 9/27/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 68-98 ATS (-39.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CINCINNATI (0 - 2) at PHILADELPHIA (0 - 2) - 9/27/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CHICAGO (2 - 0) at ATLANTA (0 - 2) - 9/27/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 7-23 ATS (-18.3 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 54-82 ATS (-36.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY JETS (0 - 2) at INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 1) - 9/27/2020, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 1-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (0 - 2) at LA CHARGERS (1 - 1) - 9/27/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS are 51-29 ATS (+19.1 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DETROIT (0 - 2) at ARIZONA (2 - 0) - 9/27/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 26-45 ATS (-23.5 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 148-187 ATS (-57.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
DETROIT is 7-21 ATS (-16.1 Units) in road games against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
ARIZONA is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
ARIZONA is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 1-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (1 - 1) at DENVER (0 - 2) - 9/27/2020, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS (1 - 1) at SEATTLE (2 - 0) - 9/27/2020, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 2-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (2 - 0) at NEW ORLEANS (1 - 0) - 9/27/2020, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, September 28


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KANSAS CITY (2 - 0) at BALTIMORE (2 - 0) - 9/28/2020, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 61-38 ATS (+19.2 Units) in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-1 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 2-0 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[CNOTES]

NFL


Week 3


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Thursday, September 24


Miami @ Jacksonville
Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games
Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 7 games when playing Miami
Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games




Sunday, September 27


Tennessee @ Minnesota
Tennessee
Tennessee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Tennessee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Minnesota
Minnesota is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Minnesota is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Tennessee


Las Vegas @ New England
Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Las Vegas's last 8 games
New England
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Las Vegas
New England is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games at home


Chicago @ Atlanta
Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Chicago's last 10 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Atlanta's last 10 games when playing Chicago


Cincinnati @ Philadelphia
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing Cincinnati


San Francisco @ NY Giants
San Francisco
San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
San Francisco is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games on the road
NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games at home
NY Giants is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing San Francisco


Houston @ Pittsburgh
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 10 games


Washington @ Cleveland
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games on the road
Cleveland
Cleveland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games


LA Rams @ Buffalo
LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Rams's last 8 games when playing Buffalo
LA Rams is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Buffalo's last 8 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Rams


Carolina @ LA Chargers
Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Carolina's last 8 games
Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Chargers
LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Chargers's last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 6 games when playing Carolina


NY Jets @ Indianapolis
NY Jets
NY Jets is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
NY Jets is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Indianapolis's last 9 games when playing NY Jets


Detroit @ Arizona
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Detroit's last 16 games when playing Arizona
Arizona
Arizona is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Detroit
Arizona is 8-1-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Detroit


Dallas @ Seattle
Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Dallas's last 11 games when playing Seattle
Seattle
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas


Tampa Bay @ Denver
Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Tampa Bay's last 16 games
Denver
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home


Green Bay @ New Orleans
Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Green Bay's last 9 games when playing New Orleans
Green Bay is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New Orleans's last 9 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing at home against Green Bay

 

[CNOTES]

NFL betting tips for Week 3: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan


The Buffalo Bills' invigorated passing game is currently the top-ranked aerial attack in the NFL. Their Week 3 total against the Rams is at 46.5 — but it could keep climbing as the week goes on.


Week 3 is a dangerous week for NFL betting. You have just enough information to lure you into a false sense of security.


This year, the NFL Week 3 odds are even slipperier to wrangle thanks to no preseason to measure against as well as league-wide injuries befalling many teams and their key contributors this past Sunday. But in the face of all this, the ultimate NFL betting strategy remains: get the best number for your NFL picks.


We give the top NFL betting tips with our Week 3 lines to bet now and bet later.


Carolina Panthers vs Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5): Bet now


The Chargers opened -6 against the Panthers, coming off a tough overtime loss to Kansas City in Week 2. The Bolts played extremely well, considering rookie quarterback Justin Herbert was thrust into action due to Tyrod Taylor suffering pregame chest pains.


Los Angeles’ defense was excellent, holding the Chiefs to 23 points and forcing three long field goals from an offense that usually has zero trouble finding the end zone. Offensively, the Chargers had a great balance between run and pass and now take on a poor Panthers defense.


Carolina is crossing the country after allowing 31 points to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 2, on the heels of 34 points from the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1. And while the Panthers’ defense – or lack thereof – is enough to like L.A., the fact Carolina star RB Christian McCaffrey will miss time with an ankle injury is a cherry on top of the sundae for Chargers fans. Get the Bolts below the touchdown now.




Kansas City Chiefs (+3) vs Baltimore Ravens: Bet Later


Oh my gawd, this is going to awesome. The Chiefs and Ravens GET IT ON this coming Monday night and the early odds have the defending Super Bowl champs as field goal pups on the road in Week 3. While this spread hasn’t come off the key number, books are adjusting their juice on the Ravens -3 to -115 while discounting K.C. in an attempt to stir up some Chiefs action.


Kansas City barely escaped Week 2 with a win, needing some long-range field goal kicking to edge the Chargers in overtime. Now, Patrick Mahomes & Co. hit the road for a second straight game, this time taking on a Baltimore squad that looks scary good through two weeks.


If you’re not sold on the Chiefs here, I don’t blame you. The Ravens crushed Cleveland in Week 1 and broke Houston on its home turf, covering both spreads at -7 and -7.5 respectively. However, if you do like Kansas City, wait it out and see if the half-point hooks show its face. And when it does, get ready to pounce because it won’t be there long.




Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Denver Broncos (Under 43.5): Bet Now


As much as the media wants to pile the praise on Tom Brady for the Buccaneers’ Week 2 win over Carolina, it was the Tampa Bay running backs that did the damage. The Bucs blasted the Panthers defense for 122 yards and three scores on the ground.


Tampa Bay takes to the road in Week 3, traveling up the mountain to play the Denver Broncos. Denver will be without starting QB Drew Lock for the next few games, but it did see some life from backup Jeff Driskel against the Pittsburgh Steelers. I don’t buy into that continuing.


The Broncos are pretty beaten up on offense, with RB Phillip Lindsay out and WR Courtland Sutton ruled out for the season on Monday. Denver’s defense is a bit of a mess too, but it always seems to put up a fight at home, going 4-12 Over/Under in the team’s last 16 home games.


I expect another run-focused playbook from the Bucs, which should kill clock and keep scoring low. Tampa Bay’s dangerous defense will also feast on the broken Broncos. If you like the Under, you’ll want to move on this now before it starts dropping.




Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills (Under 46.5): Bet Later


This total is on the rise, opening as low as 45 points and jumping to 46.5 as of Monday morning. And why not? The top-ranked passing game in the NFL is on the field.


That’s right. The Bills’ offseason addition of WR Stefon Diggs has been just what Josh Allen needed to flex his cannon arm, with Buffalo averaging 29 points through the opening two games of 2020 – fueled by the throw.


The Rams dragged their feet on offense in the Week 1 opener versus Dallas but found their footing in a 37-19 win at Philadelphia on Sunday. But let’s not discount the defenses on either side of this matchup — or the circumstances facing L.A.


Buffalo and Los Angeles have a surplus of playmakers on defense as well as potent pass rushes that can disrupt even the most high-powered attack. On top of that, the Rams are racking up the frequent-flyer miles, having to fly to Philly for Week 2, then fly back to L.A., and then fly to Buffalo on Saturday, due to COVID restrictions. If you’re eyeing the Under, wait it out and see if this total keeps climbing.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Week 3 Injuries, Weather
Patrick Everson


The 49ers are more of an orthopedics clinic than a football team this week. QB Jimmy Garoppolo, among many others, is out, moving San Fran's spread from -6 to -4, and back to -4.5 Monday.


NFL Week 2 is in the rearview mirror, NFL Week 3 odds are on the board, and several betting factors are already in play. That includes a flood of key injuries that will impact spreads and totals, particularly in the San Francisco 49ers-New York Giants clash.


This week’s NFL Cheat Sheet serves as one-stop shopping for all that information and more.


Week 2 Injuries

San Francisco 49ers: Star defensive end Nick Bosa tore an ACL and quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a high ankle sprain in Sunday’s road win against the Jets. Bosa is done for the year, while Garoppolo might be able to play in Week 3 at the New York Giants. “Those guys are worth a couple of points,” said John Murray, executive director of The SuperBook at Westgate.


Murray said The SuperBook had the Niners -6 against the Giants before those two injuries, among others. Running back Raheem Mostert (knee) was already ruled out for Week 3, and wideout Tevin Coleman has a knee sprain. Oh, and defensive end Solomon Thomas also has a season-ending ACL tear.


“They’re very banged up,” Murray said, noting The SuperBook opened the 49ers -4 and moved to -4.5 Monday.

New York Giants: Saquon Barkley also suffered a torn ACL Sunday in a road loss to the Bears, so he’s done for the year. “Barkley is worth a half-point to a point,” Murray said. The Giants are 4.5-point underdogs to the visiting 49ers. It’s also worth noting the 49ers-Giants total opened at just 41.5, quickly dropped to 40.5, then went to 41 Monday afternoon.

Denver Broncos: QB Drew Lock separated his right (throwing) shoulder in a loss at Pittsburgh, and he’ll miss two to six weeks, while star wideout Courtland Sutton is done for the year with a torn ACL. On the look-ahead line last week, The SuperBook had the Broncos 3.5-point Week 3 home ‘dogs to Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. The line opened Sunday night with Denver as 5.5-point pups and stretched to +6.5, then went to +6.

Carolina Panthers: Stud running back Christian McCaffrey was another Week 2 victim of a high ankle sprain and could miss several weeks. So he’s certainly not playing Sunday as the Panthers make the cross-country trip to face a Los Angeles Chargers team that just took the Kansas City Chiefs to overtime. Carolina is a 7-point underdog at The SuperBook.

Los Angeles Chargers: QB Tyrod Taylor was a late scratch Sunday against the Chiefs with complications from a rib injury. Coach Anthony Lynn said Monday that Taylor would start this week if he’s 100 percent, but complicating matters a bit is that rookie Justin Herbert played reasonably well in a 23-20 overtime loss to Super Bowl champion Kansas City. But with the Panthers minus McCaffrey, the Chargers are still 7-point favorites this week.




Week 2 Weather

Washington Football Team at Cleveland Browns: As of Monday, there’s a 50 percent chance of rain Sunday in Cleveland, with south/southwest winds of 10-20 mph. The SuperBook opened the total at 44.5 and ticked down to 44 Monday.

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh is looking at a 50 percent chance of rain, as well. The total opened at 45 early Monday morning and over the next couple of hours went to 44.5, then back to 45.

Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles: The early forecast calls for morning rain in Philly, with intermittent showers in the afternoon Sunday. The total hasn’t moved off 46.5.

Los Angeles Rams at Buffalo Bills: As of Monday, there’s a 60 percent chance of afternoon thundershowers, with south/southwest winds at 15-25 mph. But the total in this game is already up to 48, after opening 46.5 at The SuperBook.

San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants: The early forecast calls for occasional showers Sunday, with a 50 percent chance of rain. The total went from 41.5 to 40.5, then 41, but that likely has much more to do with both teams’ injuries, as noted above.

 

[CNOTES]

Close Calls - Week 2
Joe Nelson


Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games.


Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread and total in the fourth quarter in Week 2 of the NFL regular season.


Cleveland Browns (-5½) 35, Cincinnati Bengals 30 (44½)


A 24-point second quarter put the Thursday night game on a clear ‘over’ pace but the Browns were barely past the favorite spread with an eight-point edge at halftime.


Cincinnati seemed to a get huge swing of momentum stuffing the Browns on 4th-and-goal on the opening drive of the 2nd half but rookie QB Joe Burrow would fumble on a sack a few plays later, handing the Browns another red zone chance and this time Cleveland delivered.


Cincinnati would add a field goal to trail by 12 and the defense again delivered with an interception when it looked like Cleveland would add points. Burrow led a 14-play drive to put the Bengals within five with just under six minutes remaining. The underdog cover position was short-lived however as it took Cleveland just two minutes to answer, effectively putting the game away up by 12 at the 3:55 mark.


Burrow impressed on another long drive that included two 4th down conversions, eventually connecting for a touchdown inside the final minute on a 3rd-and-long play to take back the spread result for the underdog.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8) 31, Carolina Panthers 17 (47)


The 0-2 Panthers are proving to have a lot of fourth quarter life losing in Week 1 in a back-and-forth final frame and also rallying vs. Tampa Bay after falling behind 21-0. Christian McCaffrey added two touchdowns before getting hurt to cut the score to 21-14 early in the fourth. The Panthers got the ball right back but Teddy Bridgewater had an interception across midfield.

Tampa Bay only added three points off the turnover however and Carolina cut the margin back to seven just after the two-minute warning with its own field goal, which was enough to sit within the underdog spread. The onside kick attempt failed and Leonard Fournette rushed for 46 yards and a score on 1st down, putting the Buccaneers up by 14 and clearing the closing total that opened as high as 48½ before sliding to 47.


Those laying the points with the Buccaneers didn’t have an easy viewing the rest of the way as Bridgewater had quick completions of 22 and 14 yards to cross midfield with still more than a minute to go. Carolina eventually reached the Tampa Bay 18 and the game’s final play didn’t quite get there with a 14-yard gain stopped around the 4-yard-line to keep the Panthers from stealing the cover.


Pittsburgh Steelers (-6½) 26, Denver Broncos 21 (40½)


The Steelers led 17-3 at halftime and Denver was down to Jeff Driskel at quarterback. The Broncos added 11 points in the third quarter and to stay in the game but the Steelers had a strong start to the fourth, completing a touchdown drive and getting a safety to lead by 12 with about 10 minutes to go. Getting the ball back after the safety, Pittsburgh fumbled on first down however and the Broncos delivered with a Melvin Gordon touchdown about halfway through the final quarter.


Down by five, Denver’s defense held for a quick punt and Driskel appeared poised to deliver a game-winning drive for the Broncos, getting a big completion to the Pittsburgh 23-yard-line that withstood a replay challenge. Facing 4th-and-2 Driskel was sacked to thwart the upset and those on the favorite had a fleeting opportunity for a late cover with James Conner breaking a 59-yard rush to the Denver 10.


Denver only had two timeouts remaining and the Steelers were able to run out the clock, eventually taking a knee at the 6-yard-line.


Dallas Cowboys (-3) 40, Atlanta Falcons 39 (53½)


The fourth quarter didn’t change the spread or total results in this NFC clash but it is worth reminding everyone that the same team that recently lost the Super Bowl with a 28-3 lead was leading 39-24 with five minutes to go in a NFL game and lost.


Those taking Atlanta plus the points watched in horror after the incredible onside kick recovery as the prospect of a Dallas win and cover was back in play as Dallas had a healthy 1:49 to work with down two. After the big 2nd down gain the Cowboys played for the field goal and successfully pulled off one of the most improbable comebacks in NFL history.


Buffalo Bills (-5½) 31, Miami Dolphins 28 (42)


Buffalo jumped out to a 17-7 lead but Miami took control in the middle of the game, delivering 13 consecutive points on three scoring drives, each of fewer than 50 yards, to take a 20-17 lead with about 10 minutes remaining.


Over two drives surrounding a punt Josh Allen needed only 12 combined plays for two touchdown drives of more than 70 yards as the Bulls were up by 11 with just three minutes remaining.


Miami didn’t even face a 3rd down against a relaxed defense and connected in the final minute to spoil the spread result, getting the two-point conversion for good measure in the three-point final result.


Chicago Bears (-5) 17, New York Giants 13 (42½)


After needing a big comeback in Week 1 the Bears took a 17-0 lead over the Giants at halftime. Even with significant injuries for New York, the Bears weren’t able to coast for a win as four second half drives ended in a pair of interceptions, a punt, and a missed field goal.


New York was down 17-10 before Mitchell Trubisky’s second interception set the Giants up in decent field position. With about 10 minutes remaining Chicago almost put the game away with a pick-6 but it was called back for pass interference. The Giants would stall at the Chicago 19 and kicked a field goal with still more than seven minutes remaining to trail by four.


Chicago had a chance to push the margin back to seven points to go back in position to cover but Cairo Santos missed the field goal try. New York had a great opportunity to steal the win, converting two fourth downs along the way but eventually ended the game on the 10-yard-line as the Bears moved to 2-0 with a second straight narrow escape.


Tennessee Titans (-7½) 33, Jacksonville Jaguars 30 (44½)


The Jaguars trailed 30-17 through three quarters but completed a 75-yard drive early in the fourth and forced a quick three-and-out. Jacksonville went 86 yards to tie the game halfway through the final frame with another big performance from Gardner Minshew.


A pair of punts followed, and getting the ball back in good field position with just over three minutes to go the Titans were able to add three points to go in front, aided greatly with a big 3rd down conversion via penalty.


Minshew was intercepted on a short pass on a 2nd-and-1 play in the final minute as the Titans held on but Jacksonville did enough for a second straight underdog win to start the season.


Seattle Seahawks (-4) 35, New England Patriots 30 (45)


The Patriots opened the game with an early "Pick-6 Touchdown" but Russell Wilson rebounded nicely ultimately posting five touchdown passes even though the Seahawks only twice entered the red zone in the game.


Seattle pulled away in the third quarter with back-to-back scores around a Cam Newton interception to lead by 11 but the Patriots answered early in the fourth quarter.


Down five, New England went for two and came up short in a key play relative to the spread outcome. With just over four minutes remaining Seattle seemed to put the game away with a big 3rd down conversion and two plays later a touchdown to lead by 12.


The Patriots answered quickly however and were able to get the ball back after the Seahawks tried to throw deep on 3rd-and-1. The Patriots put together a great final drive but opted not to call their final timeout after a connection to the Seattle 13-yard-line, leaving only 12 seconds on the clock by the time they got the ball snapped.


After Julian Edelman couldn’t haul in a throw to the end zone, the Patriots reached the 1-yard-line on the next play and used the final timeout setting up the expected final play. Newton’s charge to the goal line was blown up as Seattle came away with the win and narrow cover in another entertaining edition between these teams and Hall of Fame coaches.


Las Vegas Raiders (+4) 34, New Orleans Saints 24 (48)


The line on the Monday night game shot downward Monday afternoon but the Saints opened up a 10-0 lead looking to move to 2-0 again considered by many a top NFC contender. Opening its new stadium in Las Vegas, the Raiders rallied for a tie score by halftime and took the lead early in the 3rd quarter.


The Saints punted on their first two possessions of the second half while the Raiders lost a fumble to keep the scoring at 41 well into the fourth quarter as the only drama that remained was on the total. The Saints would find the end zone with about four minutes remaining to trail by seven and the scoring hit 48, the closing total but with most sitting with tickets slightly above that with the number gradually sliding from an opening price of 50½.


A pass interference penalty converted a big 3rd down for the Raiders just ahead of the two-minute warning and the Raiders would face a decision up by seven with just over a minute to go on 4th-and-long. They opted for a risky 54-yard field goal attempt and Daniel Carlson delivered to seal the upset, as well as hitting ‘over’ too.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Dunkel


Week 3


Thursday, September 24

Miami @ Jacksonville


Game 301-302
September 24, 2020 @ 8:20 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Miami
125.635
Jacksonville
130.255
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 4 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Jacksonville
by 2 1/2
48
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(-2 1/2); Over




Sunday September 27


Washington @ Cleveland


Game 471-472
September 27, 2020 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Washington
123.31
Cleveland
124.677
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 1 1/2
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 7
44
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+7); Under


Las Vegas @ New England


Game 461-462
September 27, 2020 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Las Vegas
124.829
New England
139.182
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 14 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 6
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-6); Over


Houston @ Pittsburgh


Game 465-466
September 27, 2020 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Houston
131.460
Pittsburgh
130.610
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 1
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 4
45
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+4); Under


Tennessee @ Minnesota


Game 469-470
September 27, 2020 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
138.648
Minnesota
126.911
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 11 1/2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 2 1/2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(-2 1/2); Over


Chicago @ Atlanta


Game 475-476
September 27, 2020 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
130.642
Atlanta
131.285
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 1
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 4
48
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+4); Under


Cincinnati @ Philadelphia


Game 473-474
September 27, 2020 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
118.375
Philadelphia
129.336
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 11
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 5 1/2
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-5 1/2); Over


LA Rams @ Buffalo


Game 463-464
September 27, 2020 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
LA Rams
131.708
Buffalo
137.786
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 6
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 2
48
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(-2); Over


San Francisco @ NY Giants


Game 467-468
September 27, 2020 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
131.669
NY Giants
130.537
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 1
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
by 4
41
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(+4); Under


NY Jets @ Indianapolis


Game 477-478
September 27, 2020 @ 4:05 pm


Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
122.554
Indianapolis
135.372
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 13
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 10 1/2
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(-10 1/2); Over


Carolina @ LA Chargers


Game 479-480
September 27, 2020 @ 4:05 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
123.091
LA Chargers
124.456
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Chargers
by 1 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Chargers
by 7
44
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(+7); Under


Tampa Bay @ Denver


Game 483-484
September 27, 2020 @ 4:25 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
137.520
Denver
125.458
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 12
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
by 6
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(-6); Over


Dallas @ Seattle


Game 485-486
September 27, 2020 @ 4:25 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
134.739
Seattle
136.897
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 2
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 5
55 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(+5); Under


Detroit @ Arizona


Game 481-482
September 27, 2020 @ 4:25 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
122.855
Arizona
135.718
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 13
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 5 1/2
54 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(-5 1/2): Over


Green Bay @ New Orleans


Game 487-488
September 27, 2020 @ 8:20 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
137.388
New Orleans
133.858
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 3 1/2
61
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 3
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(+3); Over




Monday, September 28


Kansas City @ Baltimore


Game 489-490
September 28, 2020 @ 8:15 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
139.135
Baltimore
150.460
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 11 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 3
53 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(-3); Under

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up


Week 3


Dolphins (0-2) @ Jacksonville (1-1)
— Miami lost its first two games, by 10-3 points.
— Dolphins gave up 417 passing yards to Josh Allen last week.
— Miami is 9-16 ATS in its last 25 games as a road underdog.


— Jaguars scored 57 points in splitting their first two games; they’re scored 7 TD’s on 17 drives.
— J’ville has converted 15-24 3rd down plays this season.
— Last 4+ years, Jaguars are 6-9 ATS as a home favorite.


— Jaguars are 5-4 in this series, winning last two meetings, 23-20/17-7.
— Dolphins won three of last four visits to Jacksonville.


Raiders (2-0) @ New England (1-1)
— Long travel, short week for Las Vegas, after their Monday night win.
— Raiders scored 34-34 points in winning their first two games; they scored exactly 17 points in all four halves this season.
— Last three years, Raiders are 9-14 ATS as a road underdog.


— Since 2013, Patriots are 16-8 ATS coming off a loss.
— Last 4+ years, New England is 25-13-1 ATS as a home favorite.
—Patriots converted 12 of first 22 third down plays.


— Patriots won last five series games, four of them by 10+ points.
— Raiders lost last three visits here, by 3-7-10 points.
— Silver/Black’s last win in Foxboro was in 1994.


Rams (2-0) @ Buffalo (2-0)
— Rams won first two games, running ball for 153-191 yards, converting 16-29 on 3rd down.
— LA is 6-2 ATS in last eight games as a road underdog.
— Rams have allowed four TD’s so far, but none in 2nd half; they outscored first two foes 23-6 after halftime.


— Bills won first two games, scoring 27-31 points, gaining 928 yards.
— Newly acquired WR Diggs caught 16 balls for 239 yards in the two games.
— Buffalo is 8-5-1 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite.


— Home side lost five of last six series games.
— Buffalo won six of last eight series games.
— Rams split their six visits to Orchard Park.


Texans (0-1) @ Pittsburgh (1-0)
— Texans lost their first two games, giving up 34-33 points.
—Houston converted only 7-19 3rd down plays so far.
— Texans are 7-5-1 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.


— Steelers won their first two games, scoring 26-26 points.
— Pitt opponents have been in Steeler red zone 7 times, but scored only 22 points.
— Last 3+ years, Pittsburgh is 9-12 ATS as a home favorite.


— Steelers won four of six series games, with three wins by 20+ points.
— Houston lost two of three visits here; the lone win was in 2002.


49ers (1-1) @ NJ Giants (0-2)
— 49ers beat Jets 31-13 on this same field last week; they’re spending this week practicing in West Virginia.
— Last 5+ years, 49ers are 4-4 ATS as a road favorite.
— 49ers have had numerous injuries; QB Garoppolo i(ankle) is expected to play here.
— NFC West teams are 6-0 ATS outside their division this year.


— Giants lost their first two games, by 10-4 points.
— RB Barkley (knee) is out for year; Giants have been outrushed 276-104.
— Big Blue is 1-11 ATS in last dozen games as a home underdog.


— Teams split last four series games.
— 49ers lost three of last four road games in this series- they


Titans (2-0) @ Minnesota (0-2)
— Tennessee won its first two games, by total of five points.
— Titans have scored 44 points in seven trips to the red zone.
— Last 2+ years, Tennessee is 4-3 ATS as a road favorite.


— Vikings lost their first two games, allowing 43-28 points- they were outscored 37-13 in first half of those games.
— Minnesota lost field position by 14-15 yards; they’re minus-3 in turnovers.
— Last four years, Vikings are 4-1 ATS as a home underdog.


— Vikings won six of last seven series games.
— Titans are 1-6 in Minnesota, with lone win in 1992; they were outscored 92-34 in last three visits here.
— Tennessee’s lone win in the Twin Cities was in 1992.


Washington (1-1) @ Cleveland (1-1)
— Washington trailed 17-0/20-0 in their two games.
— Redskins converted only 9-30 third down plays.
— Last 4+ years, Washington is 15-11 ATS as a road underdog.


— Browns split their first two games, allowing 38-30 points (8 TD’s/19 drives).
— Cleveland has been outscored 31-14 in 2nd halves of games.
— Browns are 4-5-1 ATS in last ten games as a home favorite.


— Redskins won last three series games, by 3-17-11 points.
— Teams split two games played here; last one was in 2012.


Bengals (0-2) @ Philadelphia (0-2)
— Bengals lost their first two games, by 3-5 points.
— Cincy allowed 370 rushing yards in their first two games.
— Last 3+ years, Bengals are 15-8-1 ATS as a road underdog.


— Eagles lost their first two games, were outscored 36-3 in 2nd half.
— Philly turned ball over over three times in both games, is -5 in turnovers.
— Eagles are 4-10-1 ATS in last 15 games as a home favorite.


— Bengals are 3-0-1 in last four series games, with all three wins by 18+ points.
— Cincy is 5-3 in its visits to Philadelphia.


Bears (2-0) @ Atlanta (0-2)
— Chicago won its first two games, by four points each.
— Bears ran ball for 149-135 yards in their first two games.
— Chicago is 8-6 ATS in its last 14 games as a home favorite.


— Falcons lost 40-39 in Dallas LW, blowing 29-10 halftime lead.
— Atlanta allowed 38-40 points in first two games (10 TD’s/23 drives).
— Falcons are 5-7 ATS in last dozen games as a home favorite.


— Chicago is 5-3 in last eight series games; they won three of last five visits here.


Jets (0-2) @ Indianapolis (1-1)
— Jets lost their first two games, by 10-18 points- they trailed both games 21-3 at half.
— Gang Green was outgained by 232 yards in their first two games.
— Jets are 8-17-1 ATS in last 26 games as a road underdog.


— Colts split their first two games, despite outgaining opponents 799-416.
— Indy has struggled in red zone, scoring 34 points in nine drives inside 20.
— Colts are 10-6-1 ATS in last 17 games as a home favorite.


— Jets won four of last five series games, winning three of last four visits here.


Panthers (0-2) @ LA Chargers (1-1)
— Carolina lost its first two games, giving up 34-31 points.
— Panthers lost field position in first two games, by 7-11 yards.
— Carolina is 3-5 ATS in its last eight games as a road underdog.


— Unsure who starts at QB here for Chargers, Taylor/Herbert.
— LA split its first two games, losing in OT to rival Chiefs last week.
— Chargers are 3-9 ATS in last dozen games as a home favorite.


— Carolina won five of six series games, with lone loss in 2009.
— Panthers are 3-0 against the Chargers in California.


Lions (0-2) @ Arizona (2-0)
— Detroit lost its first two games, allowing 27-42 points.
— Lions have been outscored 46-17 in 2nd half of games.
— Detroit is 2-5 ATS in last seven games as a road underdog.


— Cardinals won their first two games, running ball for 180-160 yards.
— Arizona has 20 penalties for 204 yards in two games; that’s a lot.
— Last 5+ years, Cardinals are 8-14 ATS as a home favorite.


— Detroit is 2-0-1 in last three series games; they blew a big lead in LY’s 27-27 tie, when both teams kicked a FG in overtime.
— Lions are 1-8-1 in last ten visits to Arizona, 1-0-1 in last two.


Buccaneers (1-1) @ Denver (0-2)
— Tampa Bay split its first two games, scoring 23-31 points.
— Buccaneers are 6-3-3 ATS in last 12 gamest AFC teams.
— Last 4+ years, Tampa Bay is 3-1 ATS as a road favorite.


— Denver lost its first two games, by 2-5 points.
— QB Lock is out for two weeks; backup Driskel gets the start; he was 1-7 as a starter for the Bengals/Lions the last couple years.
— Denver is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 games as a home underdog.
— AFC West teams are 5-0-1 ATS outside their division.


— Denver won seven of last nine series games, winning last four.
— Bucs lost four of five visits here, with line win in 1993.


Cowboys (1-1) @ Seattle (2-0)
— Dallas split its first two games, which were decided by total of 4 points.
— Cowboys trailed 20-0 LW; they were -3 in turnovers, lost field position by 17 yards, but they won, recovering an onside kick when they looked like a lost cause.
— Last four years, Dallas is 7-6-1 ATS as a road underdog.


— Seahawks won their first two games, scoring 38-35 points (10 TD’s/20 drives).
— Seattle has run 118 plays; only 16 of them have been on third down.
— Seahawks are 7-12-1 ATS in last 20 games as a home favorite.


— Seattle won three of last four series games, with loss 24-22 in ’18 playoffs.
— Cowboys lost four of last five visits to Seattle.


Packers (2-0) @ New Orleans (1-1)
— Green Bay won its first two games, scoring 43-42 points (9 TD’s/18 drives)
— Packers ran ball for 417 yards, threw for 593 so far- decent balance.
— Green Bay is 7-9-1 ATS in last 17 games as a road underdog.


— Short week for Saints, who lost in Las Vegas Monday night.
— New Orleans converted 12-26 on 3rd down; both their games went over.
— Saints are 5-11 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite.


— Home side won six of last eight series games; Packers lost their last three road games against the Saints, by 15-22-21 points.
— Green Bay won Super Bowl XXXI here, in 1998; their last win against the Saints here was back in 1995.


Chiefs (2-0) @ Baltimore (2-0)
— Chiefs won their first two games, scoring 34-23 points- they rallied from behind to beat the rival Chargers in OT last week.
— KC has converted 14-28 third down plays; they made two 58-yard FG’s last week.
— Last 4+ years, Chiefs are 10-2 ATS as a road underdog.


— Ravens won their first two games, scoring 38-33 points.
— Baltimore has five takeaways, is already +4 in turnovers- they outscored first two opponents 27-6 in 2nd half.
— Ravens are 9-15 ATS in last 24 games as a home favorite.


— Chiefs won last three series games, by 20-3-5 points.
— KC beat the Ravens 33-28 LY in Week 3; they’ve won four of last five trips to Baltimore.

 

[CNOTES]

Dolphins vs. Jaguars Week 3 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt


Another week of NFL action has now arrived, and with this being the only major sport in town in the about a month or so, it won't be long before everyone in the market wonders where the first half of the season went.


It's been an entertaining first two weeks so far with holding calls down and points across the league up. Those are two talking points this week and while I'm never sure on the former, the latter is something to consider in your handicapping.


When stats like how the league wide scoring average is up over 50 points through two weeks get spoken everywhere, it might be time to lean towards flipping the script.


Yes, scoring is well up through these first two weeks, but in the market that means that early numbers where 'over' plays may make a lot of sense are going to get bet up early, and that's on top of the potential for numbers already being shaded a little higher as well. You've really got to like an 'over' for a game if you haven't pulled the trigger on it yet, as numbers are only going to climb as a generalization.


It will be interesting to see if Week 3 brings a few more 'under' tickets to the window, as something's going to give eventually. Maybe it starts with the Thursday nighter down in Jacksonville?


Betting Resources


Week 3 Matchup: AFC vs. AFC
Venue: TIAA Bank Field
Location: Jacksonville, FL
Date: Thursday, Sept. 24, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NFL Network


Line Movements


Spread: Jacksonville -3
Money-Line: Jacksonville -160, Miami +140
Total: 47.5


Dolphins' quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick looks to lift Miami to its first win of the season at Jacksonville on Thursday. (AP)


2020 Betting Stats


Miami


Overall: 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U


Jacksonville


Overall: 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS, 2-0 O/U


Over vs. Under


Handicapping the Total


Popularized numbers like the league wide scoring average being well up this year is going to have more on an influence on the market from start to finish these next couple of weeks.


Numbers are going to open higher in some instances, others are going to move in a hurry in others. But the later in the week you wait to take these 'overs' is when you are going to be left with the worst of it a lot of the time. This TNF game is case in point.


This total opened up at 44 nearly everywhere, and within 24 hours it was already at 46. There are many examples of the same thing occurring in other games every week right now, and it makes timing your bets a bit easier. If you know you are going to love an 'over' in a game, you'd better look at it early.


A four-point jump from open is something that's got to be respected, but I do believe it's also an easy spot to go the contrarian route and look for scoring to come down. This is still a TNF game on short week for these guys, and yes, Burrow and Mayfield lit it up in this spot a week ago, but I just don't see quarterbacks Gardner Minshew and RyanFitzpatrick putting up a similar performance.

These guys love to dink and dunk the ball down the field and then cough up the ball late in drives. Fitzpatrick is known for trying to force things in when the field shrinks down, and Jacksonville has shown that they'll be very shrewd in picking their spots in when to take shots.


Furthermore, how many sloppy TNF games have we seen in the past where guys/teams just don't have it and it's a 21-10, sloppy, exhibition-like game? There are at least a handful of them on Thursday's every year. Do you really want to trust these two teams of all teams to avoid something like that happening? In by far the worst of the number now?


I sure don't, and in fact I do believe it's an easy look at the 'under' now for this game. I'm not sure Miami's offense is going to be all that good away from home - something that's been the case for them in recent years – and I'm not sure Jacksonville's defense shouldn't be rated slightly higher at home.


48 is a big number for two teams that came into the season as likely lottery candidates, playing in a notorious 'under' spot on TNF, and the perception of it being an easier 'over' in bumping the number up so quick only has me looking at the 'under.'


Head-to-Head History


Dec. 23, 2018 - Jacksonville 17 at Miami 7, Jaguars -3, Under 39.5
Sep. 20, 2015 - Jacksonville 23 vs. Miami 20, Jaguars +6, Over 42
Oct. 26, 2014 - Miami 27 vs. Jacksonville 13, Dolphins -7, Under 42


Dolphins vs. Jaguars


Handicapping the Side


The side saw a big early move too as a line basically at pick'em got to Jacksonville -3 in a hurry. There has been a lot to like about the Jags from their 2-0 ATS record, but they were also catching a full TD in those games.


Catching points is when the Jaguars want to be really strongly considered in my view, because who knows how consistent this young team really is right yet. Isn't this one of those spots where teams like the Jags that were projected to be near the basement this year kind of come back down to earth?


Again, with the best of the number already gone, easy to pass on the Jags side.


Doesn't mean I want any part of Miami though, as they are 1-1 ATS this season with both games essentially being a coin flip on whether or not they sneak in the backdoor.


Week 1 they had their chance with 3rd and 6 from the Patriots 10 in the final two minutes before Fitzpatrick threw an INT. Week 2 saw them get through the backdoor – after giving it up just prior – in the final minute of the game to cover the number against the Bills, but who wants any part of that.


Catching just three points as an underdog is the smallest potential backdoor the Dolphins will be working with this year, and if their best games are coming down to coin flip plays late, how could you confidently make a case for them here either.


I guess the notion that the number's the best it's ever been on Miami now at +3 will look slightly appealing to some, but I want nothing to do with sweating out a garbage time drive with the Dolphins late. Nor do I want to bet into the worst of the number with a Jags team that may not be all their2-0 ATS mark projects them out to be.


Easy pass on the side from both perspectives. But Jags probably win.


Key Injuries


Miami


S Clayton Fejedelem: Pec - Doubtful
CB Byron Jones: Groin, Achilles - Out


Jacksonville


WR DJ Chark Jr: Chest - Questionable
K Josh Lambo: Hip - Out
C Brandon Linder: Knee - Out

 

[CNOTES]

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 24


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


MIA at JAC 08:20 PM


MIA +3.0


O 49.0

 

[emtyefd]

totally agree on the OVER! Let´s get this

 

[CNOTES]

COMPLETED PICKS


Past Completed Picks


DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


09/24/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/21/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/20/2020 15-11-0 57.69% +1450 Detail
09/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/14/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/13/2020 11-14-1 44.00% -2100 Detail
09/10/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail


Totals........32-28-1.......53.33%.....+1.50

 

[CNOTES]

Cowboys vs. Seahawks Week 3 Odds, Preview
Michael Crosson


The new betting favorite to win the NFL MVP, Russell Wilson (+300) and the Seattle Seahawks will host Mike McCarthy’s Dallas Cowboys in America’s Game of the Week on Fox this Sunday evening at 4:25 p.m. ET.


The paths traveled by Dallas and Seattle in 2020 have not closely resembled each other so far, but has left Sunday’s contest equally important for the two squads as the Seahawks and Cowboys both find themselves tied for a share of their respected NFC division crown.


Betting Resources


Week 3 Matchup: NFC vs. NFC
Venue: CenturyLink Field
Location: Seattle, WA
Date: Sunday, Sept. 27, 2020
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: FOX


Line Movements


The Seahawks opened as a three and a half-point favorite against the Cowboys following victories over the Falcons and Patriots in Weeks 1 and 2, and we have seen that number climb up to Seattle -5 heading into the weekend as the public continues to back Pete Carroll’s team to grab its third consecutive win to start the season.


This contest opened with the highest total on Sunday’s NFL slate at OU 55 points, but the public still felt that was not high enough, as the oddsmakers were forced to bump the ‘over-under’ up to OU 57 with the majority of early bet tickets coming in on the ‘over.’


Spread: Seattle -5
Money-Line: Seattle -230, Dallas +195
Total: 55.5


The Seahawks' offense has clicked through two wins as Seattle welcome in Dallas on Sunday afternoon. (AP)


2020 Betting Stats


Dallas


Overall: 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS, 1-1 O/U


Seattle


Overall: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 2-0 O/U


Head-to-Head History


Jan. 5, 2019 - Dallas 24 vs. Seattle 22, Seahawks +2.5, Over 43
Sep. 23, 2018 - Seattle 24 vs. Dallas 13, Seahawks -1, Under 40
Dec. 24, 2017 - Seattle 21 at Dallas 12, Seahawks +4.5, Under 47


The last time Dallas and Seattle met up was in Jerry’s World during the Wild Card Round of last year’s playoffs, which resulted in a 24-22 win for Jason Garrett’s Cowboys.


Dak Prescott got his first post-season win under his belt, despite having a relatively mediocre game, completing 22 of 33 passes for 226 yards with 1 TD and 1 pick – he also ran one in. Michael Gallup was quiet in the contest, but the same cannot be said about Amari Cooper, as the wideout officially made the trade with the Raiders worth it in the playoffs by hauling in seven receptions for 106 yards in the Cowboys’ win.


The real difference-maker in last year’s contest though was Seattle’s inability to stop the run, as they allowed Ezekiel Elliott to rumble for 173 total yards and a touchdown for the game. On the other side of things, the Seahawks failed to get anything going on the ground, rushing for just 45 combined yards as a team, aside from a Rashaad Penny 25-yard run.


Last year’s playoff win makes Prescott and Elliott 1-2 SU against the Seahawks for their careers.


Cowboys vs. Seahawks


Handicapping the Side


We actually luck out a little here as Seattle and Dallas are one of the few teams already this season that share a common past opponent in the Atlanta Falcons.


Although it may not have appeared like it thanks to two garbage-time touchdowns from Calvin Ridley, the Seahawks stomped Atlanta in Week 1, leading the game 31-12 in the early-goings of the fourth quarter before finishing the contest with a deceptively close tally of 38-25.


After being pushed around by the Rams in McCarthy’s first game behind the wheel, Cowboys fans everywhere could be found in fits of rage when their team fell behind 20-0 in the first half against Atlanta. The Falcons just fell apart in the second half like they tend to infamously do though, getting outscored by Zeke and company 30-10 in the final two stanzas.

So far this season, Seattle has undoubtedly been the team to beat in the NFC while Dallas should be considered lucky to be knotted up with the Washington Football Team in the division standings at this point and time.


The Cowboys are banged up on the o-line and I just have not seen enough out of Kellen Moore’s offense so far this season to back them against a unit that is running-up 36.5 points per game on defenses this season.


If you are going to pick a side here, please do not waste your money on Dallas.


Over vs. Under


Handicapping the Total


The Seahawks have cashed ‘over’ tickets in both of their games so far this season by scoring 38 points against Atlanta and 35 points against the Patriots, respectively. It also does not help that Seattle’s secondary, headed by Jamal Adams, has struggled much more than anticipated out of the gate after acquiring the former-Jets safety this past offseason.


Dallas and Los Angeles had one of the rare Week 1 ‘unders’ by losing to the Rams 20-17 on opening Sunday, but the ‘over-under’ was never in doubt in their second game – combining for almost 40 points in the first half against Atlanta and easily cashing ‘over’ tickets.


The Cowboys will be without Leighton Vander Esch in this one, and Jaylon Smith has been downright bad so far this year. ‘Over 57’ is a scary total to bet which is why I am electing to stay away from the ‘over-under’ here, but if I had to lean in a direction for this game’s total, I would lean with the ‘over.’


Key Injuries


Dallas


CB Chidobe Awuzie: Hamstring - Out
DE DeMarcus Lawrence: Knee - Questionable
CB Trevon Diggs: Personal - Questionable
OT Tyron Smith: Neck - Questionable


Seattle


DE Rasheem Green: Neck - Out
CB Neiko Thorpe: Hip - Questionable
CB Quinton Dunbar: Knee - Questionable
DE Benson Mayowa: Groin - Questionable
OT Cedric Ogbuehi: Pectoral - Questionable


Do not be fooled by Seattle’s lengthy injury report, the players Dallas could be missing on Sunday are much more critical than the players the Seahawks have already lost to the injury bug.


The Cowboys have a top-10 offensive line in the NFL when the whole crew stays healthy, but that quickly falls apart when they begin having absences and are required to move guys around up front.


Keep an eye on Tyron Smith’s status heading into this one, as Dallas will already be struggling to fill La’el Collins’ shoes at the tackle spot.

 

[CNOTES]

Packers vs. Saints Week 3 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt


I don't know what it is about Patriots/Seahawks games, but they always come down to the end, and you'd better hope you're on the team that's leading at that stage, because both sides haven't been able to punch it in on the ground from short distance after Newton and the Pats got stuffed last week.


Not sure this week's game will be able to top last week's ending to SNF, but you know an Aaron Rodgers vs. Drew Brees showdown does bring potential for plenty of other interesting fireworks going off late.


Considering Brees has been on the wrong end of plenty of criticism this week about whether or not he's still got “it” to be a capable starting NFL QB, and it will be interesting to see how he and the Saints respond. And whether or not WR Michael Thomas gets back on the field and what kind of shape his status leaves this line by the time kickoff arrives.


For Green Bay, the Aaron Rodgers FU Tour to the world is looking to continue indoors this week, as he's spent the past two weeks hanging 40 + on two division rivals. People still want to talk about how the organization didn't draft some immediate pass catching help in a pass catching draft for Rodgers, but how about what he's doing with the receiving core he's got already in uniform.


Sometimes that flashy top draft choice isn't all he's cut out to be, and with Rodgers generally always having a good idea about how looks defenses will give him – shade Davante Adams in coverage and work from there – he can pinpoint the route he believes is the best first option.


In fact, not having that secondary “name” out there running routes may actually be working to Green Bay's advantage right now because as long those guys win their individual matchup on each play, someone's going to be wide open with a very little chance of secondary help coming immediately. Two straight weeks of scoring 40+ and it's tough to argue with the results.


Betting Resources


Week 3 Matchup: NFC vs. NFC
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Location: New Orleans, LA
Date: Sunday, Sept. 27, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NBC


Line Movements


Spread: New Orleans -3
Money-Line: New Orleans -170, Green Bay +150
Total: 51.5


The Saints return home following a loss at Las Vegas as New Orleans is a slight favorite against Green Bay. (AP)


2020 Betting Stats


Green Bay


Overall: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 2-0 O/U


New Orleans


Overall: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U


Over vs. Under


Handicapping the Total


The funny thing about this game from a total perspective is that having Rodgers and the Packers off back-to-back 40+ efforts, coming into a fast, indoor track where noise is not going to be a problem at all, all the prevailing thoughts will be here will be on the 'over'.


And yet, from a market perspective approach, knowing that suggests that letting this total keep climbing and then going 'low' with the 'under' on it makes quite a bit of sense too. After all, questions about whether or not Brees and the Saints still got it are lingering out in the open now, and what if the can't score the football.


Going against the market and looking low is going to be the position I end up siding with more often than not, but I want no problem of an 'under' with Rodgers indoors here. Even as I do generally believe older QB's like Brees and Brady get overrated late in their careers because of name status and not the facts that they are early 40's QB's out there playing a young man's game, I'm not ready to completely write off Brees and the Saints just yet.

A return by Thomas could be all the Saints need to get going again, and it's because it operates in that similar fashion that Adams does for Green Bay. He gives Brees the knowledge of the defense likely shading things his way more often than not, and then the ability to work off of that and find the open man.


Remember, New Orleans still put up 24 points without the services of Thomas last week, and what's kind of gotten lost in Green Bay's 2-0 start and all the Rodgers love is the fact that the Packers defense has still allowed an average 27.5 points per game this year. Only two games yes, but Brees is by far the best QB of the bunch to take a crack at this Packers defense this year as well.


Long winded way of making this total an easy one to pass on. No reason to go contrarian for contrarian sake and sweat an 'under' for the full 60 minutes, and no reason to jump on with the masses simply wanting action and cursing yourself for not being disciplined enough to stay away when this game is 17-13 going into the 4th quarter and you need three TD's plus.


Head-to-Head History


Oct. 22, 2017 - New Orleans 26 at Green Bay 17, Saints -3.5, Under 45.5
Oct. 26, 2014 - New Orleans 44 vs. Green Bay 23, Saints -2, Over 55
Sep. 30, 2012 - Green Bay 28 vs. New Orleans 27, Saints +7.5, Over 54


Packers vs. Saints


Handicapping the Side


It's been nothing but Packers money since this line came out, as this chatter about whether Brees is done or not has really started to take root in the market. I view it as he's on his way to being done, and the market correction we seem to see coming in on the Saints now is probably where they should have started being a little overrated to begin with.


Either way, it's still just three weeks in and it's no time to panic. The Saints are 1-1 SU and lost when they didn't have their best weapon on offense. Things should be alright Saints fans.


But with how good the Packers have looked through two weeks, early support on their side was always going to show up regardless of what the Saints did on MNF. A line that did open as high as -6 in spots was about the best example out there of how the Saints were overrated to begin with and it appear the market has caught up quickly with them. All well and good.


Yet, a move from the -6 range to the -3 range is a little too large not to start seriously considering the Saints side now. New Orleans has reached that “buy low” option now where there is minimal belief in this team right now – especially from the minimal belief from bettors that they (bettors) had this team pegged correctly before the season (a supposed legitimate contender) and that makes said team difficult to cap.


So most moves if they come, are going to be against teams in those spots. The market quickly took advantage of what opened up as a bad number, but the money that has continued to push it down further is worth questioning.


Green Bay has looked spectacular through two weeks, but outside of falling down early to Detroit, what has really gone wrong for them? How often do NFL teams continue to look great and break great for weeks in a row?


Not saying it doesn't happen, but any Green Bay ATS money now has missed the boat (even if it wins), and betting into the worst of the number on a team that's been able to gloss over some concerns on defense because of their spectacular play on offense is not a handicapping practice I want to routinely get into.


The Saints have covered the number in each of their last four tries to do so after failing to cover the spread the week before, and with Brees hearing all the critics out there and Rodgers hearing nothing but praise, maybe it's the longstanding Saints QB who decides to kick off his own FU Tour this week with a vintage performance to knock off a quality foe like the Packers.


At these current prices, backing a Saints team that's become slightly abandoned by the market this week is the only way I can look.


Key Injuries


Green Bay


C Corey Linsley: Thumb - Questionable
WR Davante Adams: Hamstring - Questionable
T Billy Turner: Knee - Questionable
LB Randy Ramsey: Groin - Questionable
TE Josiah Deguara: Ankle - Questionable
DT Kenny Clark: Groin - Questionable


New Orleans


WR Michael Thomas: Ankle - Out
DE Marcus Davenport: Elbow - Questionable
LB Chase Hansen: Hip - Questionable

 

[CNOTES]

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 27


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


LAR at BUF 01:00 PM
BUF -1.5
U 46.5
+500 +500


CIN at PHI 01:00 PM
PHI -6.0
O 46.5
+500 +500


HOU at PIT 01:00 PM
PIT -3.5
U 46.5
+500 +500


CHI at ATL 01:00 PM
ATL -2.5
O 46.0
+500 +500


TEN at MIN 01:00 PM
TEN -3.0
O 49.5
+500 +500


LV at NE 01:00 PM
NE -7.0
O 47.0
+500 +500


SF at NYG 01:00 PM
SF -3.0
U 44.0
+500 +500


WAS at CLE 01:00 PM
WAS +7.5
O 45.0
+500 +500

 

[CNOTES]

LATE GAMES:


NYJ at IND 04:05 PM
NYJ +12.5
O 44.0
+500 +500


CAR at LAC 04:05 PM
LAC -6.0
O 43.5
+500 +500


DAL at SEA 04:25 PM
DAL +5.5
U 56.5
+500 +500


TB at DEN 04:25 PM
TB -5.5
U 42.5
+500 +500


DET at ARI 04:25 PM
ARI -5.0
O 55.5
+500 +500

 

[CNOTES]

SUNDAY NIGHT WINNER:


GB at NO 08:20 PM


NO -3.5


O 52.0