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WEEK 1 INJURIES TO WATCH


Denver Broncos: Normally, it takes an injury to a starting quarterback, or at least a superstar running back or wide receiver, to move a line 2.5 points. Bettors found out Tuesday night that Broncos stud linebacker Von Miller is worth that much, too. Miller suffered an apparent freak injury to an ankle tendon at the end of Tuesday's practice, and it's possible he's out for the season. Said Eric Osterman, oddsmaker and manager at The SuperBook at Westgate: "We moved the Week 1 line from pick to Titans -2.5." And that's after the line had already moved from Broncos -3 to pick, with much of that shift occuring in the past week, for the second game in a Monday night doubleheader. On Saturday, Broncos star wideout Courtland Sutton (shoulder) was listed as questionable, and The SuperBook moved to -3.


Chicago Bears: Star linebacker Khalil Mack is questionable for Week 1 with a knee issue, as is running back David Montgomery and versatile wideout Cordarrelle Patterson. New defensive end Robert Quinn is doubtful after missing practice with an ankle injury. Chicago moved from +3 to +2.5 Friday night with money on the Bears, but this line could come back to a field goal by Sunday.


Detroit Lions: Detroit could be low on receiving targets, with WR Danny Amendola (questionable) and Kenny Golladay (doubtful) nursing injuries. The total for the Week 1 opener versus Chicago opened at 44.5 in the spring and is down to 42.5 entering the weekend.


Philadelphia Eagles: Oddsmakers are closely watching running back Miles Sanders (hamstring) and right tackle Lane Johnson (lower-body injury), among others. Sanders is now probable to play, but Johnson remains questionable. "The Eagles seem to be a little banged up, which has moved the line a little bit in that game. We are at Eagles -5.5 right now, down from the opening number of -6," said Eric Osterman, manager and oddsmaker at The SuperBook at Westgate.


Los Angeles Chargers: Cluster injuries can have a big impact on the outcome, and L.A. could miss two veteran linemen for Week 1, with center Mike Pouncey (questionable) and tackle Bryan Bulaga (doubtful) on the injury report versus Cincinnati. Receiver Mike Williams is a game-time decision due to a shoulder injury. The Chargers are 3-point road favorites Sunday.


Cincinnati Bengals: Wideout A.J. Green (hamstring) is expected to be fully cleared to play Sunday vs. the Chargers. There was no impact on the line, which remained Bengals +3.5 at The SuperBook. However, the Bengals defense will be without tackle Geno Atkins and safety Shawn Williams.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Standout receiver Mike Evans is listed as doubtful with a hamstring injury for Tampa Bay's trip to New Orleans in Week 1. The Bucs have a new-look offense with QB Tom Brady under center. Tampa Bay is a 3.5-point underdog versus the Saints on Sunday, and while Evans is a dangerous deep threat, his worth to the spread is not as great as past seasons due to the additional weapons on the Buccaneers' depth chart and the diminished arm strength of Brady.


Dallas Cowboys: Dallas on Monday put right tackle La’el Collins (hip) and linebacker Sean Lee (sports hernia) on injured reserve, meaning those two are out the next three weeks minimum. However, there was no impact on the line at The SuperBook, with the Cowboys still 3-point road favorites against the Rams.


Cleveland Browns: Center JC Tretter, who had minor surgery for a knee issue in mid-August, returned to practice Monday. The Browns actually closed in a bit Monday, from +8 to +7.5 at The SuperBook for Sunday’s road game against the Ravens.


San Francisco 49ers: The defending NFC champs could be thin at wide receiver, with Deebo Samuel out for Week 1 and rookie target Brandon Aiyuk listed as questionable with a tender hamstring. Another player to keep an eye on is running back Tevin Coleman, who sat out practice on Friday due to health concerns around the poor air quality in the Bay Area. The Niners are giving a touchdown to the visiting Cardinals on Sunday.


Find the latest injury news for every game with our NFL Injury Report.
 

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WEEK 1 PROS VS JOES


Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants: PointsBet USA's Patrick Eichner said the total in this game is pitting the sharps against the squares, though surprisingly it's not in the fashion you'd think. "Sharps are on the Over, and the public is on the Under." The total opened 48.5 and is down to 46.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints: "The Bucs and Saints is definitely one," Osterman said of sharp vs. public play at The SuperBook. "The line is holding steady at Saints -3.5, even though we are getting a ton of parlay money on the Bucs," Osterman said, noting sharp play on New Orleans.


Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: "The Vikings recently moved to -3 (even) from -2.5, even though we are taking some good public money on the Packers," Osterman said, pointing to sharp money on Minnesota.
 

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NFL WEEK 1 PROP BETTING CARD


Lamar Jackson Over 220.5 passing yards (-120)
Joe Burrow Over 15.5 yards rushing (-120)
Buffalo Bills Over 2.5 touchdowns (-121)
Dallas Goedert Over 33.5 receiving yards (-120) and Over 3.5 receptions (-113)
--
Baker Mayfield Over 245.5 passing yards (-115)
T.J. Hockenson Over 44.5 receiving yards (-115)
Indianapolis to score every quarter — YES (+162)
Dwayne Haskins Over 11.5 rushing yards (-135)
--
Marlon Mack Over 54.5 rushing yards (-122)
Josh Jacobs Over 13.5 receiving yards (-119)
Tyler Lockett Over 67.5 receiving yards (-120)
--
Team to score the longest touchdown - Kansas City (-160)
Le’Veon Bell Under 55.5 rushing yards (-116)
Todd Gurley Under 83.5 total yards (-115)
Ryan Tannehill Over 230.5 passing yards (-115)
 

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THE BEST NFL BETS AGAINST THE SPREAD IN HOME OPENERS


No preseason and muzzled media coverage at training camp makes NFL Week 1 betting a bit like flying on a trapeze without a net.


And then there’s the issue of having no fans or limited attendance. Sports betting lore tells us home field is worth a field goal to the point spread but does that hold up in 2020?


To make sense of these confusing times, we go to the past to see which teams could provide a little extra NFL betting value when betting their early home stands.


These are the best NFL bets in home openers since 2006.


ATLANTA FALCONS: 12-2 ATS IN HOME OPENERS
The Falcons moved into the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium in 2017 and carried with them an impressive record against the spread in home openers, going 3-0 ATS in those contests the past three seasons. Before then, Atlanta was 9-2 ATS in its first game in front of the Georgia Dome faithful going back to 2006.


The Falcons have scored an average of 28.3 points (the irony is not lost on us) in those games while giving up just 21.2 points against, for a comfy winning margin of a touchdown. Atlanta hosts Seattle in Week 1 as a 1-point home underdog and – after some flip-flopping – will not have fans in attendance.


GREEN BAY PACKERS: 10-3-1 ATS IN HOME OPENERS
Not a big surprise here. Lambeau is one of those home fields that could be worth more than the customary field goal to the spread. Green Bay did fail to cover in its home opener with Chicago two years ago – a wild comeback from 20-0 down to the Bears – but has been all that and a block of cheese in recent seasons, going 4-1 ATS in home debuts since 2015.


Over the past 14 seasons, the Packers own an average 25-20 edge in home openers but will have to wait until Week 2 to improve on that metric. Green Bay is in Minnesota in Week 1 but hosts Detroit as a 7-point favorite at an empty Lambeau Field on September 20.


SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: 10-4 ATS IN HOME OPENERS
Another no-brainer and a home field absolutely worth more than three points to the point spread. CenturyLink Field is one of the most disruptive venues in the NFL, with deafening crowd noise and soggy Seattle weather plaguing visiting teams. However, the infamous 12th Man is locked out for at least the first three games of 2020.


As mentioned above, the Seahawks are in Atlanta for Week 1 but host new-look New England on Sunday Night Football in Week 2, giving 3.5 points to the Patriots. Now, before you blindly throw you shekels down on Seattle, know that the Seahawks are just 1-3 ATS in home openers the past four seasons, including squeaking out a 21-20 win over Cincinnati as 9.5-point chalk in 2019’s home opener.


BALTIMORE RAVENS: 9-5 ATS IN HOME OPENERS
Fans or no fans, you aren’t getting any discounts on the Ravens this season. Baltimore is an 8.5-point favorite hosting Cleveland in Week 1, looking to cover for the fourth time in the past five home openers. The Ravens didn’t come through for the Maryland fanbase last season, knocking off Arizona 23-17 as 13-point home chalk in Week 2. That spread was massively inflated on the heels of the Ravens’ 59-10 drubbing at Miami the game before.


What’s most impressive about Baltimore’s ATS prowess in home openers is the fact that the team has faced an average spread of -6.7 in those 14 games and still managed to crank out a 64-percent ATS winning clip. The Ravens own an average final score of 26-13 over those home debuts, which looks promising considering the large Week 1 spread versus the Browns.


DENVER BRONCOS: 7-4-3 ATS IN HOME OPENERS
Pulling the trigger on the Broncos in home openers is one of my annual NFL wagers and one of the best betting trends with teeth. The above record doesn’t tell the full story and unfortunately, those pushes have taken some of the “wow” out of this trend, which is hitting at 64 percent since 2006.


However, if we go back even further, Denver’s dominance in home openers is straight-up bonkers. Since 2000, the Broncos are 18-2 SU and 12-4-4 ATS (75%) in those Mile High debuts. One of the likely reasons for this success is the high-altitude impact on visiting teams that aren’t in full game shape during the opening weeks of the schedule. The Broncos are 1.5-point home favorites against Tennessee for a fanless Monday Night Football meeting in Week 1.
 

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SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 13


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS



CLE at BAL 01:00 PM
BAL -7.0
U 47.0

+500 +500


CHI at DET 01:00 PM
DET -2.5
U 42.5

+500 +500


IND at JAC 01:00 PM
IND -7.0
U 44.0

+500 +500


GB at MIN 01:00 PM
GB +1.5
O 45.0

+500 +500


SEA at ATL 01:00 PM
SEA +1.0
U 49.5

+500 +500


LV at CAR 01:00 PM
LV -3.0
U 48.0

+500 +500


NYJ at BUF 01:00 PM
NYJ +6.5
U 39.5

+500 +500


PHI at WAS 01:00 PM
WAS +5.5
U 41.5

+500 +500


MIA at NE 01:00 PM
MIA +7.5
U 41.5

+500 +500
 

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LATE AFTERNOON GAMES:




LAC at CIN 04:05 PM
CIN +3.0
O 41.5

+500 +500


ARI at SF 04:25 PM
ARI +7.0
U 48.0

+500 +500


TB at NO 04:25 PM
NO -3.5
U 47.5

+500 +500
 

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SUNDAY NIGHT LATE GAME:


DAL at LAR 08:20 PM
DAL -2.0
O 52.0

+500 +500
 

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COMPLETED PICKS


Past Completed Picks


DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD



09/13/2020 11-14-1 44.00% -2100 Detail
09/10/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail


Totals......13-14-1.........48.14%.....-11.00
 

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Armadillo: Monday's six-pack


Most popular picks this week in the Westgate SuperContest:
344— Buffalo +6.5- W
337— LA Rams +3- W
304— Atlanta +2.5- L
303— Tennessee -2.5
280— Arizona +6.5- W
243— Pittsburgh -6


Americans who have died from COVID-19: 193,482
Please wear a mask when you go out.




**********


Armadillo: Monday's Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday


Seahawks 38, Atlanta 25:
— Four trips to red zone, four TD’s for Seattle.
— Last three years, Seahawks are 14-9-2 ATS on the road.
— Seattle is 7-3 in its last ten games vs Atlanta.


— Matt Ryan threw for 450 yards in a losing cause.
— Atlanta gained 506 yards but was -2 (0-2) in turnovers.
— Last 2+ years, Falcons are 6-10-2 vs spread at home.


Buffalo 27, Jets 17
— Buffalo had a 19-yard edge in field position, very big.
— Jets are 9-17-1 ATS in last 27 games as a road underdog.
— Last four years, Gang Green is 4-7-2 ATS in AFC East road games.


— Buffalo threw the ball 26 times in first half; surprising.
— Bills won seven of last ten home openers (9-5 ATS in last 14)
— Buffalo is 6-2 ATS in last eight home openers as a home favorite.


Bears 27, Detroit 23
— Detroit led 23-6 after three quarters.
— Last four drives for Chicago: 22 plays, 155 yards, 21 points.
— Chicago won last five series games, winning last three visits to the Motor City.


— Guy on Lions dropped a pretty easy pass in end zone with 0:06 left.
— Last two years, Detroit is 7-10 ATS at home.
— Lions are 9-23-1 under Patricia; they were 36-28 under Caldwell, his predecessor.


Packers 43, Minnesota 34
— Packers scored five TD’s on nine possessions.
— Green Bay had a 14-yard advantage in field position.
— Over is 12-3 in Green Bay’s last 15 road openers


— Pack ran 76 plays for 522 yards; Vikings ran 49 plays.
— Vikings had 8 plays of 20+ yards; 7 of them came on 1st down.
— Under Zimmer, Minnesota is now 26-11-1 ATS as a home favorite.


New England 21, Dolphins 11
— Fitzpatrick threw 3 INT’s, including one in end zone with 1:28 when a TD would’ve at least covered the spread.
— Since 2014, Miami is 16-26 ATS as road underdogs
— Miami lost 11 of its last 12 visits to Foxboro.


— Newton threw for 155 yards, ran 15 times for 75 yards.
— Since 2015, New England is 25-12-3 ATS as a home favorite.
— NE won 17 of its last 19 home openers (10-7-2 ATS)


Washington 27, Eagles 17
— Eagles led 17-0 with 2:00 left in first half.
— Philly’s last 11 drives: 42 plays, 100 yards, 0 points, 3 turnovers.
— Washington had a 15-yard edge in field position.


— Washington’s points were all scored on drives that started in Philly territory.
— Ron Rivera is Washington’s coach; he had a chemo treatment during the week, took an IV at halftime. Tough freakin’ guy.
— As a head coach, Rivera is 13-7-1 ATS as a home underdog.


Raiders 34, Charlotte 30
— Jacobs carried ball 25 times for 93 yards, three TD’s
— Three of four Las Vegas TD drives were 75+ yards.
— Raiders covered five of their last six road openers.


— McCaffrey ran for 96 yards, but caught only three passes.
— Both teams converted over half their 3rd down plays.
— Since 2016, Panthers are 14-18-1 ATS at home.


Jacksonville 27, Colts 20
— Indy outgained Jags 445-241, but was -2 in turnovers.
— Colts lost their last five trips to Jacksonville.
— Indy lost nine of its last 11 road openers, six of last seven season openers.


— Minshew completed 19-20 passes for 173 yards, three TD’s.
— Jacksonville covered 10 of last 15 AFC South home games.
— Jaguars last five home openers went over the total.


Baltimore 38, Browns 6
— Cleveland scored only one TD and missed the PAT after.
— Since 2013, Cleveland is 10-18-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Since 2003, Browns, are 6-10-2 ATS in road openers.


— Ravens had a 23-yard advantage in starting field position.
— Baltimore won its last five Week 1 games, by combined score of 177-26.
— Ravens won 14 of last 16 home openers (11-5 ATS).


Chargers 16, Cincinnati 13
— Bengals’ game-winning TD with 0:06 left was nullified by offensive pass interference call.
— Last three years, Chargers are 7-3-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— Chargers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine road openers.


— Bengals averaged 4.4 yards/pass attempt; their only TD drive was 44 yards.
— Last two years, Bengals are 5-10-2 ATS at home.
— Cincy is 2-6-2 ATS in last ten games as a home underdog.


New Orleans 34, Buccaneers 23
— Buccaneers turned ball over three times; Brady threw a pick-6.
— Arians is 5-12 ATS in last 17 games as a road underdog.
— Tampa Bay won four of its last five road openers.


— Saints scored the only defensive TD of the week so far.
— Since 2014, New Orleans is 16-25-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Saints had a 24-yard edge in starting field position.


Cardinals 24, San Francisco 20
— WR Hopkins caught 14 passes for 151 yards; why did Houston trade HIM?
— Cardinals are 10-5-2 ATS in last 17 games as a road underdog.
— Arizona ran ball for 180 yards, converted 7-14 on third down.
— Redbirds won five of their last six visits here.


— 49ers are 7-16-2 ATS in last 25 games as a home favorite.
— Niners covered twice in last ten NFC West home games.
— Six of 49ers’ last seven home openers stayed under the total
— Five of last eight series games were decided by 4 or fewer points.


Rams 20, Cowboys 17
— Dallas converted only 3-12 third down plays.
— Prescott averaged only 5.8 yards/pass attempt.
— Cowboys had only one play of 20+ yards.


— Rams held Dallas to a field goal in second half.
— Under McVay, Rams are 15-8 SU at home.
— Rams won/covered their last six home openers.
 

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NFL odds Week 2: Opening lines, sharp money & line movement
Patrick Everson


Russell Wilson and the Seahawks notched a 38-25 victory at Atlanta in Week 1. The SuperBook then opened Seattle -3.5 and quickly moved to -4 against visiting New England in Week 2.


NFL Week 1 is almost in the books, with NFL Week 2 odds posted and already getting some attention. Among the marquee matchups, the New England Patriots travel to face the Seattle Seahawks, and the Las Vegas Raiders open their brand-new stadium – albeit with no fans – against the New Orleans Saints in the Monday night game.


The SuperBook at Westgate provided insights on NFL Week 2 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting. Covers will update this report with NFL sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the week.


NFL Week 2 odds


These are the current NFL Week 2 odds, as of September 13.


attachment.php



Bengals at Browns


Opening line
Browns -6.5, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
"We opened the Browns -6.5, down from a look-ahead number (last week) of -7.5, and we are now at -6," SuperBook executive director John Murray said Sunday night. "Cleveland didn't look good (at Baltimore), and there’s going to be a lot of pressure on Baker Mayfield to perform in the next few weeks. I don't know what we did to deserve this gem in prime time in Week 2." The last part of that comment was dripping with sarcasm, to be sure.




Rams at Eagles


Opening line
Eagles -2.5, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
Murray said there was no early movement on this game, which was pulled off the board once the Cowboys-Rams game began Sunday night. It will go back up Monday morning.
"Philadelphia is a very banged-up team with a decimated offensive line," Murray said, pointing specifically to right tackle Lane Johnson (ankle). "It's hard to recommend a play in this game without knowing the status of Johnson."




Panthers at Buccaneers odds


Opening line
Buccaneers -8, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.




Broncos at Steelers


Opening line
Steelers -6.5, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.




Falcons at Cowboys


Opening line
Cowboys -7, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
This line was only up Sunday until the Rams-Cowboys game kicked off, and there was no movement at The SuperBook. The line will go back up Monday morning.




49ers at Jets


Opening line
Jets +6.5, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.




Bills at Dolphins


Opening line
Dolphins +4, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.




Vikings at Colts


Opening line
Colts -3, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.




Lions at Packers


Opening line
Packers -5.5, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
The Packers were a big public play in Week 1 and proved deserving in a 43-34 road victory over Minnesota. But there was no line movement on the Lions-Packers game Sunday night at The SuperBook.




Giants at Bears


Opening line
Bears -5.5, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.




Jaguars at Titans


Opening line
Titans -10, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.




Washington at Cardinals


Opening line
Cardinals -6.5, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
Although Arizona posted an impressive Week 1 win at defending NFC champion San Francisco, there was no line movement on this Week 2 game Sunday night at The SuperBook.




Ravens at Texans


Opening line
Ravens -6, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
"We opened -6 and moved quickly to -6.5. No point in waiting," Murray said of a quick move at The SuperBook. "The public will be all over the Ravens in this game, after watching both of these teams play in Week 1. The Texans may be the biggest need of the week for sportsbooks next Sunday in the early games."




Chiefs at Chargers


Opening line
Chiefs -7, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
Kansas City looked good in a 34-20 Thursday night home win over Houston. Los Angeles didn't look that good in barely beating host Cincinnati 16-13 Sunday. So it was no surprise Sunday night to see the Chiefs quickly move to -7.5 for this AFC West clash.




Patriots at Seahawks


Opening line
Seahawks -3.5, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
"We opened Seahawks -3.5 and moved quickly to -4," Murray said of a Sunday night uptick at The SuperBook. "Seattle looked very potent offensively (at Atlanta). Mr. Unlimited Russell Wilson looked like an MVP. This will be a huge test for Cam Newton. The public will be on the Seahawks, and the books will be rooting for another 'dog on Sunday night."




Saints at Raiders


Opening line
+4.5, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
"We opened Saints -4.5 and moved quickly to -5.5," Murray said. "It pains me to talk about this game, thinking about how great it could’ve been for this city. What an event that would’ve been at the new stadium. It will still be a huge handle game, with the public all over the Saints on the road."
 

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NFL betting tips for Week 2: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan


Cam Newton looked great in his debut as the New England Patriots QB, including 75 yards rushing and two touchdowns in a Week 1 win over the Miami Dolphins.


I’m a big fan of Week 2. The NFL betting markets overreact to one week of results and there are a lot of extra points hanging around for the picking.


The best NFL betting strategy is to spot those overreactions early and plan your attack: do you grab the number now or wait it out and bet later? It all comes down to your opinion on the spread or total.


If you’re scouring the NFL Week 2 odds, these are our NFL betting tips for the best games to bet now and later.


Atlanta Falcons (+6.5) vs Dallas Cowboys: Bet Now


The freshest game in the minds of NFL bettors when the Week 2 odds hit the board is the Sunday Night Football result. And this past Sunday night, we saw the Dallas Cowboys stacked offense flounder for only 17 points and come up short with the game on the line in a loss to the Los Angeles Rams.


The Week 2 spread opened Dallas as high as -7 hosting the Atlanta Falcons (and there are still some sevens out there as of Monday morning) but has started to drop to -6.5, with early play on the Falcons. The Cowboys’ loss in L.A. as well as injuries to key contributors on both sides of the ball is influencing that action.


Atlanta, on the other hand, fell to Seattle 38-25 in Week 1 but still posted 450 yards through the air — a stat that should make Dallas’ shaky pass defense very nervous. If you like the road underdog in this 1 p.m. ET matchup, get the Falcons now at +7 or +6.5 before it dips to six.




Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins (+5.5): Bet Later


This spread opened as low as Buffalo Bills -5, with books hanging a dead number and allowing early action to dictate the move to the key number. That initial money pushed the spread to Buffalo -5.5 and will likely go to -6 very quickly.


The Bills’ 2020 debut wasn’t bad, but it wasn’t great either. They raced out to a 21-3 halftime lead over the New York Jets before getting outscored 14-6 in the final 30 minutes, but the offense looks like a capable complement to an already-stingy stop unit.


The Miami Dolphins fell in Foxborough to the new-look New England Patriots but weren’t blown away by any means. Miami was held back by three interceptions from QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (Tua time?) and made New England bettors sweat until the final five minutes. If you’re getting down on the Dolphins, wait and see if this gets to +6 or higher.




New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks (Over 44): Bet Now


The Seattle Seahawks just walked into Hot-lanta and outscored the Falcons on their fast home track, which is not an easy feat. Seattle posted 38 points with Russell Wilson airing it out for 322 yards to a bevy of receiving options while keeping the defense guessing with a versatile rushing corps.


Cam Newton was the engine behind the Patriots in Week 1, giving New England fans 75 yards and two scores on the ground to go along with a steady day dropping back. Granted, those results came against Miami and the Seahawks defense is a tougher task, but we expect the Pats offense to continue to grow and gain traction.


This Over/Under opened at 44 points and outside of some tinkering with the juice, it’s staying there as of Monday morning. However, with the "Yes we Cam" headlines flooding the NFL news wires and the Seahawks scoring 38 points (as well as no 12th Man advantage in CenturyLink in Week 2), I expect money to show on the Over. Grab the Over 44 points now before this total steps off the key number.




Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans (Over 52.5): Bet Later


This Over/Under was as big as 54.5 points when select books posted lookahead lines for Week 2 back in the spring. The true Week 2 opener went up at 53 points Sunday night, and immediate money took the Under and slimmed the total to 52.5.


The Houston Texans' offense looked lost for the majority of its season opener versus Kansas City last Thursday, and it was obvious Deshaun Watson missed having DeAndre Hopkins as a failsafe. But, the Texans have had that mini-bye to tighten the bolts and should show better with the football at home in Week 2.


The Baltimore Ravens showed zero signs of rust in its Week 1 walkthrough versus Cleveland. The Ravens scored 38 points and limited the Browns to only six, which was a combo of solid defense from Baltimore and Cleveland trying out a new system for the first time.


Plenty of books have 52.5 Over/Under on the board and have already discounted the juice on the Over to slow the early play on the Under. If you predict plenty of offense for this 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff, be patient and see how low it will go.
 

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MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 14


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS



TEN at DEN 10:20 PM
DEN +3.0
O 41.0

+500 +500
 

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COMPLETED PICKS


Past Completed Picks


DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD



09/14/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/13/2020 11-14-1 44.00% -2100 Detail
09/10/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail


Totals......14-15-1.........48.27%.....-11.50
 

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Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack


Most popular picks this week in the Westgate SuperContest:
344— Buffalo +6.5- W
337— LA Rams +3- W
304— Atlanta +2.5- L
303— Tennessee -2.5
280— Arizona +6.5- W
243— Pittsburgh -6- W


Americans who have died from COVID-19: 194,367
Please wear a mask when you go out.




**********


Armadillo: Tuesday's Den: Nobody asked me, but…….


13) Steelers 26, Giants 16:
— Pitt led 16-10 late in 3rd quarter; Giants had a 19-play drive that ended on an end zone INT.
— Last five years, Pittsburgh is 15-6 ATS against NFC teams.
— 11 of Steelers’ last 14 road openers stayed under the total.


— Barkley carried ball 15 times for 6 yards; he caught 6 passes for 60 yards.
— Giants started one drive on Pittsburgh’s 3-yard line but only kicked a FG.
— Giants started out 0-1 eight of last nine years.
— Giants are 4-14 ATS in last 18 games as a home underdog.


12) Titans 16, Denver 14
— Titans missed three FG’s and a PAT, but kicked 25-yard FG with 0:17 left for the win.
— The was the Oilers/Titans’ first win in Denver since 1980 (they also won a 1987 replacement game, but I don’t count that)
— Tennessee won seven of last eight road openers, covered nine of last 13.


— Broncos were stopped on downs on the Tennessee 1-yard line in 2nd quarter.
— Titans converted 7-16 on 3rd down, Denver only 3-9.
— Denver is 21-10-1 ATS in its last 32 home openers.


11) Why did the Houston Texans trade DeAndre Hopkins? Isn’t it important to keep your best players, especially when your young QB is growing into being an elite player? Going to be a lot of heat on Texans’ management if they regress on offense this season.


My high school Chemistry teacher was Bill Warner (no relation to Kurt); he was a great teacher, also a licensed pilot, a basketball referee, a brilliant guy. When something made no sense to him, he would call it “nonsensical” He is the only person I’ve ever heard use that word.


To me, the Texans trading Hopkins was nonsensical.


10) No NFL head coach has ever won Super Bowls with two different teams.


Only two guys (Bill Parcells, Mike Holmgren) made it to a Super Bowl with another team, after winning a title somewhere else.


9) NFL supposedly wants more scoring in their games, but two huge offensive plays in the last minute of close games were nullified Sunday by offensive pass interference calls. If you want more points to be scored, why would you point the officials towards calling more offensive PI?


Bengals scored a TD with 0:06 left that was negated; Dallas completed a long pass that would’ve set up a game-tying field goal. Wide receivers pushing off has been overlooked for decades; Michael Irvin is in the Hall of Fame because of that.


The NFL makes their rules, the officials just enforce them; I don’t understand this apparent change in direction.


8) Last 16 years, Cleveland Browns are 0-15-1 in their season openers; they threw 10 passes to Odell Beckham Sunday in Baltimore, but completed only three of them.


7) Mike D’Antoni’s NBA coaching record: 16 years, 672-527 in regular season games, 54-56 in playoff games. If he still wants to coach, hard to believe someone won’t hire him.


6) Denver Nuggets are first NBA team ever to have four straight playoff series go 7 games.


5) Overlooked with all the football Sunday was Alec Mills throwing a no-hitter for the Cubs in Milwaukee, in his 15th career start.


Earlier this season, Lucas Giolito threw a no-hitter for the White Sox; this is the first season ever that both Chicago franchises had a pitcher throw a no-hitter in the same season.


4) Over the last 21 years, Washington Redskins have started 13 different quarterbacks in their season opener. This isn’t a good thing.


3) Big day for Mets fans; the Wilpon family and Saul Katz have agreed to sell the Mets to billionaire hedge fund manager Steve Cohen, which has to help the team a lot. The Wilpons were horrendous owners.


Trivia: If you watch Billions on Showtime, Damian Lewis’ character Bobby Axelrod is loosely based on Cohen. He is a rich guy, really rich.


2) Atlanta Braves signed Pablo Sandoval to a minor league deal, after the Giants released him. Sandoval could be a DH for the Braves down the stretch.


1) If the baseball playoffs started today (they don’t):
AL East: Tampa Bay, Toronto
AL Central: Chicago, Minnesota
AL West: Oakland, Houston
AL wild cards: Cleveland, New York


NL East: Atlanta, Miami
NL Central: Chicago, St Louis
NL West: Los Angeles, San Diego
NL wild cards: Philadelphia, San Francisco
 

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NFL odds Week 2: Opening lines, line movement
Patrick Everson


Russell Wilson and the Seahawks notched a 38-25 victory at Atlanta in Week 1. The SuperBook then opened Seattle -3.5 and quickly moved to -4 against visiting New England in Week 2.


NFL Week 1 is almost in the books, with NFL Week 2 odds posted and already getting some attention. Among the marquee matchups, the New England Patriots travel to face the Seattle Seahawks, and the Las Vegas Raiders open their brand-new stadium – albeit with no fans – against the New Orleans Saints in the Monday night game.


The SuperBook at Westgate provided insights on NFL Week 2 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting. Covers will update this report with NFL sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the week.


NFL Week 2 odds


These are the current NFL Week 2 odds, as of September 13. Click on each matchup in the table below to get updated in-depth information on the opening lines, sharp money, public betting, and odds movement as we get closer to kickoff.


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Bengals at Browns


Opening line
Browns -6.5, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
"We opened the Browns -6.5, down from a look-ahead number (last week) of -7.5, and we are now at -6," SuperBook executive director John Murray said Sunday night. "Cleveland didn't look good (at Baltimore), and there’s going to be a lot of pressure on Baker Mayfield to perform in the next few weeks. I don't know what we did to deserve this gem in prime time in Week 2." The last part of that comment was dripping with sarcasm, to be sure.




Rams at Eagles


Opening line
Eagles -2.5, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
Murray said there was no early movement on this game, which was pulled off the board once the Cowboys-Rams game began Sunday night. It will go back up Monday morning.
"Philadelphia is a very banged-up team with a decimated offensive line," Murray said, pointing specifically to right tackle Lane Johnson (ankle). "It's hard to recommend a play in this game without knowing the status of Johnson."




Panthers at Buccaneers odds


Opening line
Buccaneers -8, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.




Broncos at Steelers


Opening line
Steelers -6.5, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.




Falcons at Cowboys


Opening line
Cowboys -7, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
This line was only up Sunday until the Rams-Cowboys game kicked off, and there was no movement at The SuperBook. The line will go back up Monday morning.




49ers at Jets


Opening line
Jets +6.5, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.




Bills at Dolphins


Opening line
Dolphins +4, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.




Vikings at Colts


Opening line
Colts -3, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.




Lions at Packers


Opening line
Packers -5.5, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
The Packers were a big public play in Week 1 and proved deserving in a 43-34 road victory over Minnesota. But there was no line movement on the Lions-Packers game Sunday night at The SuperBook.




Giants at Bears


Opening line
Bears -5.5, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.




Jaguars at Titans


Opening line
Titans -10, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
There was no line movement on this game Sunday night at The SuperBook.




Washington at Cardinals


Opening line
Cardinals -6.5, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
Although Arizona posted an impressive Week 1 win at defending NFC champion San Francisco, there was no line movement on this Week 2 game Sunday night at The SuperBook.




Ravens at Texans


Opening line
Ravens -6, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
"We opened -6 and moved quickly to -6.5. No point in waiting," Murray said of a quick move at The SuperBook. "The public will be all over the Ravens in this game, after watching both of these teams play in Week 1. The Texans may be the biggest need of the week for sportsbooks next Sunday in the early games."




Chiefs at Chargers


Opening line
Chiefs -7, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
Kansas City looked good in a 34-20 Thursday night home win over Houston. Los Angeles didn't look that good in barely beating host Cincinnati 16-13 Sunday. So it was no surprise Sunday night to see the Chiefs quickly move to -7.5 for this AFC West clash.




Patriots at Seahawks


Opening line
Seahawks -3.5, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
"We opened Seahawks -3.5 and moved quickly to -4," Murray said of a Sunday night uptick at The SuperBook. "Seattle looked very potent offensively (at Atlanta). Mr. Unlimited Russell Wilson looked like an MVP. This will be a huge test for Cam Newton. The public will be on the Seahawks, and the books will be rooting for another 'dog on Sunday night."




Saints at Raiders


Opening line
+4.5, Over/Under TBA


Why the line moved
"We opened Saints -4.5 and moved quickly to -5.5," Murray said. "It pains me to talk about this game, thinking about how great it could’ve been for this city. What an event that would’ve been at the new stadium. It will still be a huge handle game, with the public all over the Saints on the road."
 

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NFL betting tips for Week 2: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan


Cam Newton looked great in his debut as the New England Patriots QB, including 75 yards rushing and two touchdowns in a Week 1 win over the Miami Dolphins.


I’m a big fan of Week 2. The NFL betting markets overreact to one week of results and there are a lot of extra points hanging around for the picking.


The best NFL betting strategy is to spot those overreactions early and plan your attack: do you grab the number now or wait it out and bet later? It all comes down to your opinion on the spread or total.


If you’re scouring the NFL Week 2 odds, these are our NFL betting tips for the best games to bet now and later.


Atlanta Falcons (+6.5) vs Dallas Cowboys: Bet Now


The freshest game in the minds of NFL bettors when the Week 2 odds hit the board is the Sunday Night Football result. And this past Sunday night, we saw the Dallas Cowboys stacked offense flounder for only 17 points and come up short with the game on the line in a loss to the Los Angeles Rams.


The Week 2 spread opened Dallas as high as -7 hosting the Atlanta Falcons (and there are still some sevens out there as of Monday morning) but has started to drop to -6.5, with early play on the Falcons. The Cowboys’ loss in L.A. as well as injuries to key contributors on both sides of the ball is influencing that action.


Atlanta, on the other hand, fell to Seattle 38-25 in Week 1 but still posted 450 yards through the air — a stat that should make Dallas’ shaky pass defense very nervous. If you like the road underdog in this 1 p.m. ET matchup, get the Falcons now at +7 or +6.5 before it dips to six.




Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins (+5.5): Bet Later


This spread opened as low as Buffalo Bills -5, with books hanging a dead number and allowing early action to dictate the move to the key number. That initial money pushed the spread to Buffalo -5.5 and will likely go to -6 very quickly.


The Bills’ 2020 debut wasn’t bad, but it wasn’t great either. They raced out to a 21-3 halftime lead over the New York Jets before getting outscored 14-6 in the final 30 minutes, but the offense looks like a capable complement to an already-stingy stop unit.


The Miami Dolphins fell in Foxborough to the new-look New England Patriots but weren’t blown away by any means. Miami was held back by three interceptions from QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (Tua time?) and made New England bettors sweat until the final five minutes. If you’re getting down on the Dolphins, wait and see if this gets to +6 or higher.




New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks (Over 44): Bet Now


The Seattle Seahawks just walked into Hot-lanta and outscored the Falcons on their fast home track, which is not an easy feat. Seattle posted 38 points with Russell Wilson airing it out for 322 yards to a bevy of receiving options while keeping the defense guessing with a versatile rushing corps.


Cam Newton was the engine behind the Patriots in Week 1, giving New England fans 75 yards and two scores on the ground to go along with a steady day dropping back. Granted, those results came against Miami and the Seahawks defense is a tougher task, but we expect the Pats offense to continue to grow and gain traction.


This Over/Under opened at 44 points and outside of some tinkering with the juice, it’s staying there as of Monday morning. However, with the "Yes we Cam" headlines flooding the NFL news wires and the Seahawks scoring 38 points (as well as no 12th Man advantage in CenturyLink in Week 2), I expect money to show on the Over. Grab the Over 44 points now before this total steps off the key number.




Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans (Over 52.5): Bet Later


This Over/Under was as big as 54.5 points when select books posted lookahead lines for Week 2 back in the spring. The true Week 2 opener went up at 53 points Sunday night, and immediate money took the Under and slimmed the total to 52.5.


The Houston Texans' offense looked lost for the majority of its season opener versus Kansas City last Thursday, and it was obvious Deshaun Watson missed having DeAndre Hopkins as a failsafe. But, the Texans have had that mini-bye to tighten the bolts and should show better with the football at home in Week 2.


The Baltimore Ravens showed zero signs of rust in its Week 1 walkthrough versus Cleveland. The Ravens scored 38 points and limited the Browns to only six, which was a combo of solid defense from Baltimore and Cleveland trying out a new system for the first time.


Plenty of books have 52.5 Over/Under on the board and have already discounted the juice on the Over to slow the early play on the Under. If you predict plenty of offense for this 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff, be patient and see how low it will go.
 

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NFL Week 2 Injuries, Weather
Patrick Everson


49ers star tight end George Kittle suffered a sprained left knee in a Week 1 loss to Arizona. His status for Week 2 against the New York Jets is currently up in the air.


NFL Week 1 is in the rearview mirror, NFL Week 2 odds are on the board, and several betting factors are already in play. Maybe a key player got dinged up last weekend, or public opinion is forming around a convincing Week 1 winner.


This week’s NFL Cheat Sheet will serve as one-stop shopping for all that information and more.


Week 2 Injuries

New York Jets:
Running back Le’Veon Bell will be out this week at home against the 49ers, and perhaps longer, with a hamstring injury suffered in Sunday’s loss to the Bills. The SuperBook at Westgate has New York a 6.5-point home underdog to San Francisco.

San Francisco 49ers:
Star tight end George Kittle has a sprained left knee, the team announced Monday. More will be known on Kittle’s status by midweek, but it wasn’t affecting the line much at The SuperBook at Westgate. The 49ers opened -6.5 at the Jets and bounced to -7 a couple of times, then back to -6.5.

New Orleans Saints:
Wideout Michael Thomas suffered a high ankle injury against the Buccaneers, but early indications are that he’ll be OK for Week 2 at the Raiders. Bettors aren’t concerned, having already helped push the Saints from -4.5 to -6 at The SuperBook.

Indianapolis Colts:
Running back Marlon Mack tore his Achilles in the second quarter of Sunday’s loss to Jacksonville, and he is done for the season. Whatever impact Mack’s absence has on the line was factored into The SuperBook’s opening number of -3, which stuck after going up Sunday night.

Cleveland Browns:
Rookie left tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. (leg) is questionable for Thursday’s home game against the Bengals, while tight end David Njoku was place on the injured reserve with a sprained left knee. The Browns opened -6.5 at The SuperBook and quickly dropped to -6.


Week 2 Weather


Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon in Tampa, with a 40 percent chance, with north/northeast winds of 10-20 mph. SuperBook oddsmakers opened the total at 49 and left it there through Monday.


Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins: As in Tampa, there’s a 40 percent chance of afternoon rain in Miami on Sunday. The total, though, is steady at 41.5 at The SuperBook.
 

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101CINCINNATI -102 CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND is 39-61 ATS (-28.1 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse since 1992.


261LA RAMS -262 PHILADELPHIA
LA RAMS are 9-2 ATS (6.8 Units) with <=6 days rest in the last 2 seasons.


263CAROLINA -264 TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 16-34 ATS (-21.4 Units) in home games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored since 1992.


265DENVER -266 PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH is 79-46 ATS (28.4 Units) in home games as a favorite of 3.5-10.5 pts. since 1992.


267ATLANTA -268 DALLAS
ATLANTA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after an upset loss in the last 3 seasons.


269SAN FRANCISCO -270 NY JETS
NY JETS are 16-33 ATS (-20.3 Units) off a road loss against a division rival since 1992.


271BUFFALO -272 MIAMI
BUFFALO is 14-29 ATS (-17.9 Units) off a home win against a division rival since 1992.


273MINNESOTA -274 INDIANAPOLIS
MINNESOTA is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in road games after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points since 1992.


275DETROIT -276 GREEN BAY
DETROIT is 21-43 ATS (-26.3 Units) in road games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored since 1992.


277NY GIANTS -278 CHICAGO
NY GIANTS are 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) in road games as a dog of 3.5 to 10 pts. in the last 3 seasons.


279JACKSONVILLE -280 TENNESSEE
JACKSONVILLE is 26-12 ATS (12.8 Units) in road games after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game since 1992.


281WASHINGTON -282 ARIZONA
WASHINGTON is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better in the last 3 seasons.


283BALTIMORE -284 HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after playing their last game on the road in the last 2 seasons.


285KANSAS CITY -286 LA CHARGERS
KANSAS CITY is 12-3 ATS (8.7 Units) against conference opponents in the last 2 seasons.


287NEW ENGLAND -288 SEATTLE
NEW ENGLAND is 33-11 ATS (20.9 Units) after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game since 1992.


289NEW ORLEANS -290 LAS VEGAS
NEW ORLEANS are 13-3 ATS (9.7 Units) in road games in the last 3 seasons.
 

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