Cnotes 2019-2020 College Football Trends-News-Notes-Best Bets & Opinions !

[CNOTES]

Hawaii outlasts BYU in Hawaii Bowl
December 24, 2019

HONOLULU (AP) Cole McDonald capped a stellar performance with a 24-yard touchdown pass to Nick Mardner with 1:17 remaining, and Hawaii beat BYU 38-34 on Tuesday night for the Warriors' first 10-win season since 2010.


McDonald threw for 493 yards and four touchdowns against a BYU defense that was allowing an average of 203.8 yards passing per game.


Still, it took a late rally for Hawaii to beat BYU for the first time since 2001 when both were part of the Western Athletic Conference. Hawaii led 31-24 at halftime, but the Cougars (7-6) shut out the Warriors until the final part of the fourth.


McDonald scrambled for 9 yards. He found Mardner behind the defense for a 38-yard pass that at least put Hawaii in range to tie the game. And then he hit Mardner on a post route, and he tumbled into the end zone as Aloha Stadium erupted for its home team, even though the Warriors (10-5) were technically the visiting team.


BYU wasted a solid game by Zach Wilson, whose father grew up in Hawaii. Wilson threw for 274 yards and ran for 72 yards and two short TDs to help the Cougars rally from a 10-point deficit in the first half.


BYU's last chance ended when Khoury Bethley intercepted Wilson for the second time, and the celebration was on.


McDonald finished 28 of 46, and he did most of his damage in the first half by throwing for 331 yards and three scores. Of the four touchdown drives, the shortest was 40 yards. That one followed Bethley's first interception. Two plays later, McDonald found Jared Smart on a post route with a perfectly thrown pass that made it 14-0.


Wilson brought the Cougars back, leading them on touchdown drives of 73, 75 and 75 yards, the last one ending on Micah Simon scoring on an 11-yard reverse.


BYU still leads the series 23-9. This was the first time the schools met in a bowl game.


THE TAKEAWAY


Hawaii: McDonald used the middle of the field and was not afraid to go deep on a BYU defense that had been stubborn against the pass most of the year. He went over 4,000 yards passing for the season.


BYU: The Cougars had great balance with the run (231 yards) and pass (274 yards). But they were susceptible to the deep ball all game, and it cost them in the end.


AIR HAWAII


Hawaii receivers Smart and JoJo Ward each went over 1,000 yards for the year, joining Cedric Byrd II. This is the sixth time in NCAA history that a team had three players with at least 1,000 yards receiving in a season. Hawaii has done it twice, the other time in 2007. The other schools are Texas Tech (2003), Tulsa (2003), Houston (2009 and Fresno State (2013).


UP NEXT


Hawaii: At Arizona on Aug. 29 to open the 2020 season.


BYU: At Utah on Sept. 5 to open the 2020 season.




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Bowl Games Best Bets & Opinions ( All Based On 5 Units )


DATE................W-L-T...........%........UNITS


12/24/2019.......2-0-0......100.00%....+10.00
12/23/2019.......1-1-0........50.00%.....-0.50
12/21/2019...... 4-8-0........33.33%....-24.00
12/20/2019.......1-1-0........50.00%.....-0.50


Totals..............8-10-0........44.44%.....-15.00




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Best Bets


Date......................Ats..................Uni ts...................O/U...................Units..............Total


12/24/2019..........1 - 0..................+5.00................1 - 0.................+5.00.............+10.00
12/23/2019..........0 - 1..................-5.50.................1 - 0.................+5.00..............-0.50
12/21/2019..........2 - 3..................-6.50.................1 - 4..................-17.00............-23.50
12/20/2019..........1 - 0.................+5.00.................0 - 1..................-5.50..............- 0.50


Totals..................4 - 4...................-2.00................3 - 5..................-12.50.............-14.50

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday’s 6-pack


Over/under win totals for baseball in 2020:


54.5— Detroit Tigers


64— Miami Marlins


65— Kansas City Royals


69.5— Seattle Mariners


71— Pittsburgh Pirates


72.5— San Francisco Giants


Fact of the Day:
In 22 of the last 40 seasons, there was at least one unbeaten in the top 10 into at least the start of February. This week, no top 10 teams are unbeaten.


Thursday’s quiz
Who was manager of the White Sox when they won the World Series in 2005?


Wednesday’s quiz
John Adams was the 2nd President of the United States.


Tuesday’s quiz
Mike Schmidt hit the most home runs ever, out of all the players who played for only one team in their career (548).


*********************

Thursday’s List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud…….


13) Rickey Henderson was born on Christmas, which raises the question; whats the worst day of the year to have a birthday?


My votes: December 26, April 1, February 29. Could you imagine having a birthday once every four years?


12) Best days of the year to have a birthday?


My picks are January 1st, July 4th. Maybe December 31, too.


11) MLB Network ran an old hour-long special Tuesday night on the Oakland A’s of the 70’s; brought me back to my childhood days as a baseball fan. Good stuff.


10) Guessing I’m very late with this, but stumbled across an HBO series called Curb Your Enthusiasm yesterday; funny stuff. Some of Larry David’s act is cringe-worthy, but I spent lot of time laughing, which is pretty much what matters.


The late Bob Einstein was on this show; he was also the star of Super Dave, a comedy show in the 90’s, and was in Oceans 13. Funny man.


9) Celtics 118, Raptors 102— Toronto had won 34 consecutive divisional home games.


8) Edwin Encarnacion signed with the Chicago White Sox for one-year, $12M.


7) NFL named Joe Namath as one of the 22 finalists for the QB slots on their 100 greatest players list. Joe Namath is a terrific guy, was very famous, but he won two (two!!!) playoff games in his career. Overrated, for sure.


6) My top 3 quarterbacks of Super Bowl era: Elway, Staubach, Brady


5) Ben Roethlisberger said that he’ll be back with the Steelers next year, good news for fans in Pittsburgh. Big Ben hasn’t played since Week 2 this season.


4) Podcast recommendation: “How I Built This”, an interview series with successful people who built big businesses. Interesting to hear how successful people think.


3) Ravens’ QB Lamar Jackson gave each of his offensive linemen a Rolex watch for Christmas.


2) Clippers 111, Lakers 106— Smart scheduling by the NBA, having the two LA teams play each other, so neither has to travel on Christmas.


High quality game; Leonard had 35 points, 12 rebounds in a game the Lakers led by 15 points in the third quarter. Harrell had 18 points in 31:00 off the bench for the Clippers.


1) Houston 75, Washington 71— Cougars win the Diamond Head Classic. We’ll see both teams in March, also on a neutral floor. Houston was +8 in turnovers; their bench outscored Huskies’ bench 18-5, after Washington led by 14 early on.

 

[CNOTES]

Dec 26- Independence Bowl, Shreveport
Skip Holtz is 5-0 in bowls at Louisiana Tech, were underdog in last two; senior QB Smith is 3-year starter. Tech figures to have crowd support wth game in Shreveport. Bulldogs were held under 300 total yards in all three losses TY- they lost two of last three regular season games, with backup QB playing in the losses; starter came back in last game. Tech is 17-8-1 ATS in last 26 games as an underdog, 2-2 TY. Three of their last four games went under. Miami lost four of its last five bowls; this is Diaz’ first bowl as a HC. Canes are 6-6, losing last two games, with a loss to FIU of C-USA. Miami is 11-17 ATS in last 28 games as a favorite, 2-6 TY. ACC teams won this game the last four years; average total in last six Independence Bowls, 68.2.


Quick Lane Bowl, Detroit
Eastern Michigan lost bowls in ’16, ’18 by total of six points but they covered both games; Eagles are 20-6-1 ATS in last 27 games as an underdog, 3-3 TY. Four of their last five games went over. Pitt lost its last four bowls, were favored in two of them; their last bowl win was here six years ago. Panthers are 7-5 TY, scoring total of 19 points in losing last two games; they’re 6-0 when they score 20+ points, 1-5 when they don’t. Pitt is 6-3-1 ATS in last ten games as a favorite, but they’re 2-5-1 in last eight tries as a double digit fave. Five of their last six games stayed under total.. Underdogs are 3-2 in this game last five years, with average total 51.2. MAC teams lost last three appearances here, scoring 19.3 ppg. Game is indoors, so no weather worries.

 

[CNOTES]

223MIAMI -224 LOUISIANA TECH
MIAMI is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) off upset loss vs conference foe since 1992.


225PITTSBURGH -226 E MICHIGAN
PITTSBURGH is 10-3 ATS (6.7 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons.




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Thursday, December 26


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


MIAMI (6 - 6) vs. LOUISIANA TECH (9 - 3) - 12/26/2019, 4:00:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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PITTSBURGH (7 - 5) vs. E MICHIGAN (6 - 6) - 12/26/2019, 8:00:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
E MICHIGAN is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Thursday, December 26


Louisiana Tech @ Miami-FL


Louisiana Tech
Louisiana Tech is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
Louisiana Tech is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games


Miami-FL
No trends to report


Pittsburgh @ Eastern Michigan


Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 14-7 ATS in its last 21 games


Eastern Michigan
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Eastern Michigan's last 5 games
Eastern Michigan is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games




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Thursday, December 26


Louisiana Tech @ Miami-FL


Game 224-223
December 26, 2019 @ 4:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Louisiana Tech
80.102
Miami-FL
83.299
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami-FL
by 3
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami-FL
by 6
50
Dunkel Pick:
Louisiana Tech
(+6); Under


Pittsburgh @ Eastern Michigan


Game 225-226
December 26, 2019 @ 8:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
82.580
Eastern Michigan
74.133
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 8 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 11
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Eastern Michigan
(+11); Under




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Thursday, December 26


MIAMI-FLA. vs. LA TECH (Independence Bowl)...Canes 2-6 as chalk TY, as dogs were 10-2 vs. line in Miami games. Miami has also failed to cover in 4 of last 6 bowls. Skip Holtz 18-8-1 as dog since 2014. Holtz also 5-0 SU, 4-1 in bowls with Bulldogs.
La Tech, based on team trends.




PITT vs. EASTERN MICHIGAN (Quick Lane Bowl)...Pitt 0-4 SU, 1-3 vs. spread last four bowls. Narduzzi 1-5-1 as DD chalk since 2016, but did cover 4 of 5 away TY. EMU 4-2-1 vs. line away from Ypsilanti this season, now 21-6-1 away from home since 2016, and 20-5-2 as dog since 2016. Note Panthers “under” 13-3 since late 2018.
EMU and “under” based on team and “totals” trends.




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Random bowl facts; Merry Christmas……


— Over the last three years, Pac-12 teams are 7-15 SU in bowl games, 3-18-1 ATS, which is hard to believe, so I checked it twice. 3-18-1 it is.


— Last five tears, Pac-12 teams are 12-27-1 ATS in bowls, 9-20-1 when favored.


— Friday was a huge day for the MAC; they won two bowl games. Over the previous three years, MAC squads were 2-15 SU in bowls, 5-12 ATS.


— Over last three years, SEC teams are 17-19 SU in bowls, 9-12 ATS when favored.


— Underdogs won four of last five Pinstripe Bowls SU.


— Three years ago, big 14 teams were 3-7 SU in bowls; the last two years, they went 12-5 SU/ATS.


— In last five Cheez-It Bowls, Big X teams are 5-0 SU, beating four Pac-12 teams and Boise State.


— Over last five years, Big X teams 5-7 ATS when favored in bowls, 13-8 when the underdog; they’re 13-6 SU in bowls the last three years.


— Over last three years, Sun Belt teams are 9-5 SU in bowls. Go figure.


— Last four years, AAC teams are 10-20 SU in bowls; 6-11 ATS when favored, 4-9 when an underdog.


— Last three years, ACC teams are 20-12-1 ATS in bowls, 9-4 when favored, 11-8-1 when they’re getting points.


— Last five years, Conference USA teams are 11-5 ATS when favored, 7-11 when an underdog.


— Pac-12 teams beat an ACC team in four of last five Sun Bowls; four of the five games were decided by 6 or fewer points.

 

[CNOTES]

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 26
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


LT at MIA 04:00 PM
MIA -6.5
O 50.0


PITT at EMU 08:00 PM
EMU +13.0
U 49.0

 

[CNOTES]

Smith, Louisiana Tech beat Miami 14-0 in Independence Bowl
December 27, 2019
By The Associated Press


SHREVEPORT, La. (AP) J'Mar Smith threw a touchdown pass and had a late scoring run to help Louisiana Tech beat Miami 14-0 on Thursday night in the only shutout in the Independence Bowlâ??s 44-game history.


Louisiana Tech (10-3) hit double-digit victories for the first time since 1984 and ran its postseason winning streak to six. Miami (6-7) completed its second losing season in 12 years.


Smith connected with Israel Tucker on a 26-yard touchdown strike on a screen pass in the second quarter, capping a 13-play, 91-yard drive. Smith added an 8-yard scoring run with 1:15 left.


Bulldogs running back Justin Henderson was selected the Most Outstanding Offensive Player after rushing for 95 yards on 22 carries. Smith completed 13 of 28 passes for 163 yards with one interception.


The teams set the game record for punts at 18, with both tying the single-club record of nine.


QUICK LANE BOWL


PITTSBURGH 34, EASTERN MCHIGAN 30


DETROIT (AP) - Kenny Pickett threw a 25-yard touchdown pass to Taysir Mack with 47 seconds left and Pittsburgh held on to beat Eastern Michigan in the Quick Lane Bowl.


After taking its first lead of the game, Pittsburgh (8-5) then forced Eastern Michigan (6-7) to turn it over on downs from its 40. That sealed Pitt's first bowl victory in five appearances under coach Pat Narduzzi.


Eastern Michigan quarterback Mike Glass was ejected with 10 seconds left after throwing punches at two players. Eagles cornerback Kevin McGill was ejected earlier for unsportsmanlike conduct. Glass was 28 of 50 for 311 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. The senior also ran for 83 yards and a score.


Pickett completed 27 of 39 passes for 361 yards and three scores, including a school-record, 96-yard TD pass to Maurice Ffrench. Ffrench finished with 12 catches for 165 yards.

 

[CNOTES]

FRIDAY DECEMBER 27, 2019


Time (ET) Bowl Away Home


12:00 PM Military Bowl North Carolina Tar Heels Temple Owls


3:20 PM Pinstripe Bowl Michigan State Spartans Wake Forest Demon Deacons


6:45 PM Texas Bowl Oklahoma State Cowboys Texas A&M Aggies


8:00 PM Holiday Bowl Southern California Trojans Iowa Hawkeyes


10:15 PM Cheez-It Bowl Washington State Cougars Air Force Falcons




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Bowl Games Best Bets & Opinions ( All Based On 5 Units )


DATE................W-L-T...........%........UNITS


12/26/2019.......1-3-0.......25.00%......-11.50
12/24/2019.......2-0-0......100.00%....+10.00
12/23/2019.......1-1-0........50.00%.....-0.50
12/21/2019...... 4-8-0........33.33%....-24.00
12/20/2019.......1-1-0........50.00%.....-0.50


Totals..............9-13-0........40.90%.....-26.50




****************************************


Best Bets


Date......................Ats..................Uni ts...................O/U...................Units..............Total




12/26/2019..........1 - 1..................-0.50.................0 - 2.................-11.00.............-11.50
12/24/2019..........1 - 0..................+5.00................1 - 0.................+5.00.............+10.00
12/23/2019..........0 - 1..................-5.50.................1 - 0.................+5.00..............-0.50
12/21/2019..........2 - 3..................-6.50.................1 - 4..................-17.00............-23.50
12/20/2019..........1 - 0.................+5.00.................0 - 1..................-5.50..............- 0.50


Totals..................5 - 5...................-2.50................3 - 7..................-23.50.............-26.00

 

[CNOTES]

Friday’s 6-pack


Over/under win totals for baseball in 2020:


88— St Louis Cardinals


86.5— Cleveland Indians


84.5— Los Angeles Angels


81— Arizona Diamondbacks


79.5— Texas Rangers


75.5— Colorado Rockies


Quote of the Day:
“He’s going to be the quarterback. He’s going to be the future of the Denver Broncos.”
Von Miller, talking about rookie QB Drew Lock


Friday’s quiz
Where did Shaquille O’Neal finish his NBA career?


Thursday’s quiz
Ozzie Guillen was manager of the White Sox when they won the World Series in ’05.


Wednesday’s quiz
John Adams was the 2nd President of the United States.


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Friday’s Den: In a perfect world, where I made all the decisions……..


13) I’d like everyone to be nicer to each other; life is short, lets enjoy it.


Lets tolerate our differences; I like the A’s, you like someone else. you like beer, I like Cherry Coke, our differences are what make life interesting.


12) A friend of mine wouldn’t talk to me for a year because I didn’t vote for Hillary Clinton in 2016 (I voted for the 3rd party candidate). Why take life that seriously? Especially the way Presidential elections are, the Democrat almost always wins New York anyway.


11) Would a date with Gina Gershon be too much to ask for? (probably, yes…..)


10) Sounds like one of the things I’ve been posting in this space for years will finally happen; both leagues should have the DH in 2022. Both leagues should have the same rules.


9) Lets do away with Daylight Savings Time; who needs sunlight at 5:30am? Keep the clocks the way they are in the summer. Let it stay light as late in the day as possible.


8) Can we get rid of the Electoral College? Whoever gets the most votes should win, yes?


7) Every kid would learn basic life skills in high school: cooking, laundry, how to write a check, how to do a budget, the divorce laws.


When it comes to cooking, I can make one thing……reservations.


6) No Thursday NFL games, except for Week 1 and Thanksgiving Day. Instead, why not have Monday night doubleheaders every week? 7:00/10:30 games; that would be fun.


5) NBA playoff series would be two out of three until the Finals, which would be best-of-5.


4) College football teams shouldn’t be playing I-AA opponents; I mean, Alabama played Western Carolina this year, and Florida played UT-Martin AND Towson State- how does this happen? Why would anyone pay to see mismatches like this?


3) I’d be in favor of college basketball adopting the NBA’s 8-second rule for getting the ball over half court; most anything that encourages pressing and a faster-paced game is a good thing.


2) I’d make cigarettes illegal; they’re known to cause cancer. What is good about them?


1) I’d make sure DirecTV picked up the Pac-12 Network. Its not too much to ask. This is my list after all.


Hope everyone had a great Christmas.

 

[CNOTES]

227N CAROLINA -228 TEMPLE
N CAROLINA is 12-33 ATS (-24.3 Units) after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992.

229MICHIGAN ST -230 WAKE FOREST
MICHIGAN ST is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) in road games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992.


231OKLAHOMA ST -232 TEXAS A&M
TEXAS A&M is 9-26 ATS (-19.6 Units) in road games after a bye week since 1992.


233USC -234 IOWA
IOWA is 60-30 ATS (27 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.


235WASHINGTON ST -236 AIR FORCE
AIR FORCE is 18-44 ATS (-30.4 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 8 or more passing yards/att. since 1992.




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Friday, December 27


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


N CAROLINA (6 - 6) vs. TEMPLE (8 - 4) - 12/27/2019, 12:00:00 P
Top Trends for this game.
TEMPLE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


MICHIGAN ST (6 - 6) vs. WAKE FOREST (8 - 4) - 12/27/2019, 3:20:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN ST is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) after playing a conference game this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
WAKE FOREST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in games played on a neutral field since 1992.
WAKE FOREST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in December games since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


OKLAHOMA ST (8 - 4) vs. TEXAS A&M (7 - 5) - 12/27/2019, 6:45:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
TEXAS A&M is 23-39 ATS (-19.9 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
TEXAS A&M is 71-99 ATS (-37.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


USC (8 - 4) vs. IOWA (9 - 3) - 12/27/2019, 8:00:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
USC is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in December games since 1992.
USC is 33-56 ATS (-28.6 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


WASHINGTON ST (6 - 6) vs. AIR FORCE (10 - 2) - 12/27/2019, 10:15:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
AIR FORCE is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in road games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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Dec. 27- Military Bowl, Annapolis
Temple is 21-7 ATS in last 28 games as an underdog, 5-2 TY; Owls’ coach Carey was 0-6 SU in bowls at Northern Illinois- Temple lost three of its last four bowls, losing this game 34-26 (-12) three years ago. Three of Temple’s last four games stayed under. Mack Brown went 6-6 in his return to Chapel Hill; nine of their 12 games were decided by 7 or less points, including all six losses. UNC is 2-5-1 ATS in last eight games as a favorite; they lost their last three bowls, giving up 38 ppg- their last bowl win was in 2013. Tar Heels are 6-2 when they allow 25 or fewer points, 0-4 when they allow more. Underdogs are 4-2 vs spread in last six Military Bowls that didn’t involve host school Navy; average total in this bowl last five years is 60.8.


Pinstripe Bowl, Bronx
Michigan State had a 5-game losing skid after a 4-1 start, allowing 34+ points in all five losses; they’re 5-1 when they allow 17 or less points, 0-5 when they allow more. Spartans are 5-11 ATS in last 16 games as a favorite, 3-5 TY- they scored 10 or fewer points in five of their six losses. State split their last four bowls, scoring 42-0-42-6 points; five of their last seven games went under. Wake Forest won its last three bowls, scoring 42 ppg; they lost three of last four games (giving up 38.5 ppg) after 7-1 start. Deacons are 4-7 ATS in last 11 games as an underdog, 1-1 TY. Big 14 teams won this bowl four of last five years; underdogs covered this bowl seven of last eight years, with average total of 56.2 in last six. Check the weather; NYC in December can be dicey.


Texas Bowl, Houston
Oklahoma State won four of its last five games after giving up 45 points in consecutive losses to Texas Tech/Baylor in October; Cowboys are 10-4 ATS in last 14 games as an underdog, 2-1 TY. Four of their last five games went under the total. OSU won its last three bowls, scoring 38-30-38 points; they covered four of last five bowls. Texas A&M is 7-5, losing last two games, to Georgia/LSU- they lost 50-7 to LSU. Aggies are 8-5-1 ATS in last 14 games as an underdog, 2-2 TY. A&M lost three of last four bowls, despite scoring 52-52 points in last two. Jimbo Fisher is 6-2 SU in bowls. A&M’s last three games went under. Big X teams are 5-2 SU in last seven Texas Bowls, beating SEC teams the last three years, with average total of 58.5 in last six.


Holiday Bowl, San Diego
USC won five of its last six games after a 3-3 start, scoring 31-41-52 points in last three games, which saved coach Helton’s job- freshman QB Slovis threw for 466 ypg in those games. USC allowed 26+ points in four of last five games; they’re 5-12 ATS in last 17 games as an underdog, 2-2 TY. Trojans are 3-2 in last five bowls, scoring 45+ points in the wins; they didn’t go bowling LY. Iowa won five of its last six games, giving up 17.7 ppg in winning last three; they’re 12-6 ATS in last 18 games as a favorite, 5-4 TY. Hawkeyes won their last two bowls, after losing previous five. Underdogs covered this game six of last seven games; Big 14 teams won this game last four years. Average total in last four Holiday Bowls, 45.8.


Cheez-It Bowl, Phoenix
Air Force won its last seven games since a 34-25 loss to Navy; Falcons actually threw for 327 yards at New Mexico. Flyboys are 12-18 ATS in last 30 games as a favorite, 5-4 TY. Four of their last five games went under. Falcons are in its first bowl in three years; they lost three of last five bowls, with average total of 69.8. Mike Leach is 7-7 in bowls, 2-3 at Washington State, with average total of 54. Coogs scored only 19.3 ppg in last four bowls. Wazzu was 3-0 TY, then blew a 49-17 third quarter lead, lost 67-63 at home to UCLA and their season fell apart. Coogs lost six of last nine games, scoring 41+ points in the wins; four of their last five games went over. Underdogs covered this bowl five of last seven years, with average total of 48.7 in last six.




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Friday, December 27


North Carolina @ Temple


Game 227-228
December 27, 2019 @ 12:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
North Carolina
89.652
Temple
88.992
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
North Carolina
by 1
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
North Carolina
by 5
53 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Temple
(+5); Over


Michigan State @ Wake Forest


Game 229-230
December 27, 2019 @ 3:20 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Michigan State
85.833
Wake Forest
84.905
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Michigan State
by 1
63
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Michigan State
by 4 1/2
49
Dunkel Pick:
Wake Forest
(+4 1/2); Over


Oklahoma State @ Texas A&M


Game 231-232
December 27, 2019 @ 6:45 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Oklahoma State
91.825
Texas A&M
102.655
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Texas A&M
by 11
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Texas A&M
by 7
54
Dunkel Pick:
Texas A&M
(-7); Under


USC @ Iowa


Game 233-234
December 27, 2019 @ 8:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
USC
97.554
Iowa
101.711
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Iowa
by 4
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Iowa
by 2
52
Dunkel Pick:
Iowa
(-2); Under


Air Force @ Washington St


Game 235-236
December 27, 2019 @ 10:15 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Air Force
91.157
Washington St
90.934
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington St
Even
70
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Air Force
by 3
67 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington St
(+3); Over

 

[CNOTES]

Friday, December 27


NORTH CAROLINA vs. TEMPLE (Military Bowl)... Mack Brown just 2-3-1 as chalk this year, 2-3 vs. spread away from Chapel Hill. Owls covered last 4 in 2019 in 8-4 spread season, 4-2 as dog, though Rod Carey was 0-6 SU and vs. spread in bowls with NIU.
UNC, based on Carey bowl marks.




MICHIGAN STATE vs. WAKE FOREST (Yankee Pinstripe Bowl)...MSU 3-9 vs. line TY, 8-17 vs. spread since 2018, 5-11 as chalk since 2018. Though Dantonio 6-1 vs. spread last seven bowls. Clawson 3-0 SU in bowls with Wake. Deacs 5-1 vs. line last 6 vs. non-ACC.
Wake Forest, based on team trends.




OKLAHOMA STATE vs. TEXAS A&M (Texas Bowl)...Gundy on 12-4 spread uptick since late 2018, has also won and covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 bowls. OSU also 14-4 as dog since 2015.
Oklahoma State, based on team trends.




SOUTHERN CAL vs. IOWA (Holiday Bowl)...SC no covers last 3 or 5 of last 6 bowls. Helton 1-8 vs. spread last 9 vs. non-Pac 12 foes. Ferentz has won and covered last 2 owls and is 7-4 last 11 in bowl games vs. line, and 9-3-1 vs. spread last 13 away from Iowa City.
Iowa, based on team trends.




WASHINGTON STATE vs. AIR FORCE (Cheez-it Bowl)...Leach no covers last 3 or 4 of last 5 bowl with Cougs. WSU also 4-8 vs. line last 12 vs. non-Pac 12, and just 1-6 vs. spread last 7 away from Pullman. Calhoun 13-3 vs. spread last 16 vs. non-MW foes.
Air Force, based on team trends.




*****************************




Friday's Bowl Tip Sheet
Joe Williams


Texas Bowl (ESPN, 6:45 p.m. ET)


Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M


-- The Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-4 straight up, 8-3-1 against the spread) from the Big 12 Conference will square off with the Texas A&M Aggies (7-5 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) from the Southeastern Conference in the Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl in Houston, Tex. at NRG Stadium.


-- The Cowboys opened the season 3-0 SU/ATS, but the wins were against Oregon State, McNeese of the FCS and Tulsa. They lost a narrow 36-30 game at Texas Sept. 21 for their first loss, although they ended up with the cover. In fact, they covered their first five games of the season. They topped a very good Kansas State team 26-13 on Sept. 28, and fell against Texas Tech and Baylor in the following two weekends, mainly due to defensive lapses. They yielded 45 points in each of those games. They were better defensively during a four-game win streak against Iowa State, TCU, Kansas and West Virginia, yielding just 20.0 PPG, which is pretty outstanding for the Big 12. They were dumped 34-16 in 'Bedlam', the season-ending rivalry game against Oklahoma.


-- It's all about RB Chuba Hubbard for the Cowboys. He rushed 309 times for 1,936 yards and 21 touchdowns, averaging 6.3 yards per carry. Offensively, the Cowboys were 17th in total yards overall, posting 463.9 yards per game. They're 16th in rushing yards per contest (236.3), while ending up 71st in passing yards (227.7). They scored 33.4 points per game to rank 34th offensively. For the defense, they were 86th in total yards (418.1), 113th in passing yards (267.1) and 59th in rushing yards (151.0) allowed. They yielded 27.0 points per game to check in a mediocre 63rd.


-- The Aggies dropped four games this season, but those losses were against Alabama, Auburn, Clemson, Georgia and LSU. Two of those teams are in the playoffs, and all five were in the mix late into the season. What will we get from Oklahoma State?


-- Texas A&M ranked 71st in total yards (399.2), 54th in passing yards (247.1) and 77th in rushing yards (152.1) per game, while posting 30.0 points per game to rank 62nd in the nation. On defense, the Aggies were pretty strong, allowing 341.0 yards per game to rank 31st, they were 48th against the pass (211.7) and 29th against the run (129.3), which is the important stat as they try to contain Hubbard. That will be the prime matchup. They also allowed 22.7 points per game to rank 37th in the country.


-- The Aggies have made 41 previous bowl appearances dating back to 1922. That includes a 33-16 victory over Oklahoma State in the 1981 Independence Bowl. The Aggies have been exciting lately, win or lose. They blasted North Carolina State 52-13 last season in the Gator Bowl, while losing 55-52 to Wake Forest in the Belk Bowl in 2017. They have scored 21 or more points in nine straight games dating back to the 2009 Independence Bowl.


-- For the Cowboys, they have won three straight bowl appearances, including last season's 38-33 win over Missouri in the Liberty Bowl. They have won seven of the past nine bowl games overall. They last appeared in a bowl game in 2016, topping Colorado 38-8 in the Alamo Bowl. They lost the 2013 Cotton Bowl to Missouri by a 41-31 score, and the year before they topped Purdue 58-14 in the Heart of Dallas Bowl. They also won the 2010 Alamo Bowl in 2010, so Texas has been very good to the Cowboys, and they generally travel well with such close proximity to Stillwater. That will be important since this time they're playing a Texas-based school.


-- Oklahoma State heads into this one 12-2 ATS in the past 14 games as an underdog, and 9-3-1 ATS in the past 13 overall. They're also 21-8 ATS in the past 29 non-conference tilts, and 9-2 ATS in the past 11 against teams with a winning overall record.


-- The Cowboys are also 4-1 ATS in the past five bowl games, and 5-1 ATS in the past six neutral-site games, while going 4-1 ATS in the past five neutral-site games as an underdog.


-- Texas A&M is 16-5-1 ATS in the past 22 as a favorite, and they're 11-1 ATS in their past 12 non-conference tilts.


-- The under is 4-1 in OK State's past five games overall, 5-0 in the past five neutral-site games and 5-0 in their past five bowl games.


-- The over is 5-2 in A&M's past seven neutral-site games, 9-3 in the past 12 non-conference tilts and 5-1 in their past six bowl outings.


-- These teams have a history, with Oklahoma State going 4-0-1 ATS in the past five meetings, with the over 6-2 in the previous eight.




Holiday Bowl (FOX Sports 1, 8:00 p.m.)


Southern California vs. Iowa


-- The San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl will feature the Southern California Trojans (8-4 straight up, 6-5-1 against the spread) against the Iowa Hawkeyes (9-3 straight up, 5-7 against the spread) at San Diego County Credit Union Stadium in San Diego, Calif.


-- Head coach Clay Helton has continued to put together wins despite a multitude of injuries and a fanbase which seemingly always wants him gone. USC beat Fresno State and Stanford to open the season, but lost to BYU 30-27 in overtime on Sept. 14. They topped a playoff-contending Utah team by a 30-23 score on Sept. 20 before an ugly loss at Washington on Sept. 28. A loss at Notre Dame on Oct. 12 had them at a crossroads at 3-3 SU/ATS. However, they rattled off wins in five of their final six games to turn things around, including road wins at Arizona State and California in November.


-- The Trojans lost QB JT Daniels (knee) to a season-ending knee injury in the opening game. Enter freshman QB Kedon Slovis, who was an unknown. All he did was emerge with 3,242 passing yards, connecting with WR Michael Pittman Jr. for 1,222 of them, as the offense rolled along despite the losses. In fact, they lost leading rusher RB Vavae Malepeai to injury for a long period, other key skill position members were also hurt, and at one point they were down to fifth-string RB Kenan Christon to serve as the workhorse. They overcame, and now they're pretty healthy heading into the Iowa game.


-- The offense posted 462.2 total yards per game to rank 18th in the nation, including fifth in the pass game at 335.9 yards. They were 113th with 126.3 rushing yards per game, again, they were devastated by injuries at that position. They ranked 36th with 33.2 points per game. Defensively they were 83rd in total yards allowed (415.3), 99th in passing yards allowde (248.9), 76th in rushing yards allowed (166.3) and 66th in points allowed (27.8).


-- Iowa was boring offensively, as they ranked just 98th in total yards (369.8), 67th in passing yards (230.3) and 97th in rushing yards (139.5) while ranking 99th in points per game (23.8). On defense, that's where Iowa had most of their success, allowing just 304.6 total yards per game to rank 12th in the nation, while checking in 11th with 184.2 passing yards per game. They were 25th against the run, too, giving up just 120.4 yards per outing while yielding only 13.2 PPG to rank fifth in the country.


-- These teams have met before in a bowl game, facing each other in the Orange Bowl back on Jan. 2, 2003, in a game which I actually attended. That day it was all USC, as they thrashed the Hawkeyes 38-17 with Pete Carroll at the helm for the Trojans. That's the only meeting in a bowl game between the institutions. USC played a Big Ten team last time they were in a bowl, falling 24-7 in the Cotton Bowl Classic against Ohio Stae on Dec. 29, 2017. Ovearll the Trojans have won eight of the past 10 against the Big Ten, however, in bowl games.


-- The Trojans are 6-2-1 ATS in the past nine against winning teams, but they're just 4-14 ATS in the past 18 as an underdog and 0-4 ATS in their past four bowl games. They're also 0-5 ATS in the past five vs. Big Ten, and 0-7 ATS in the past seven neutral-site games.


-- The Hawkeyes are 6-2 ATS in the past eight non-conference battles, while going 3-1-1 ATS in the past five games in December.


-- USC has hit the over in five in a row, while going 11-4-1 in the past 16 neutral-site games.


-- The under is 8-2-1 in the past 11 games overall for Iowa, and 6-1-1 in their past eight as a favorite. However, the over is 5-0 in their past five appearances on a Friday, 4-1 in the past five bowl games and 3-1-1 in their past five non-conference tilts.




Cheez-It Bowl (ESPN, 10:15 p.m.)


Air Force vs. Washington State


-- The Cheez-It Bowl features the Air Force Falcons (10-2 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) from the Mountain West Conference facing off against the Washington State Cougars (6-6 straight-up, 4-8 against the spread) from the Pac-12 Conference at Chase Field in Phoenix, Ariz.


-- It was a strange season for the Cougars. It went downhilll against UCLA on Sept. 21, as they blew a giant lead and fell 67-63 in a memorable game where QB Anthony Gordon threw for nine touchdowns -- and they lost! He ended up with 5,228 passing yards overall this season, spreading it out amongst a bevy of consistent receivers. You never knew what Washington State team would show up. They were thrashed at Utah 38-13, but lost a narrow 37-35 game at Oregon on Oct. 26, blowing a game they probably should've won outright. They blasted Stanford 49-22, they edged Oregon State 54-53 on Nov. 23, showing off the pass attack again, and they were dumped 31-13 in the Apple Cup vs. Washington.


-- Air Force did what they do best this season - run. The triple-option is still working wonders for the Falcons, as they won 10 and lost just two, a 30-19 loss at Boise State on Sept. 20, and a 34-25 loss at Navy, against a fellow triple-option team. They won seven in a row to close out the season, including against bowl teams Hawai'i and Utah State.


-- USAFA ranked 51st in total yards per game (424.0), while going for 131.0 passing yards per contest to rank 124th. They were third overall with 293.0 rushing yards per game, and that's where Washington State's D needs to focus. The Falcons scored 34.3 points per game to rank 22nd. Defensively, Air Force allowed 315.8 total yards to rank 16th, while ranking 40th against the pass (208.1), 11th against the run (107.7) and 19th in points scored (19.8).


-- Washington State was ridiculous offensively, and ridiculously bad defensively, which explains why they were just .500. They were sixth overall with 516.8 total yards per game, and fifth in passing yards with 444.3 yards per game. They barely ran the ball, posting just 72.5 yards per game to rank 129th in FBS. They were 10th in points scored at 39.2 per game. Defensively...ugh. They allowed 456.8 total yards per game to rank 113th, they were 122nd against the pass (286.8), and 78th against the run (170.0). They allowed 31.4 points per game to check in 94th.


-- The Cougs are 8-7 in 15 previous bowl games, including 2-3 in the past five appearances under Mike Leach. The won last season's Alamo Bowl against Iowa State by a 28-26 score.


-- The Falcons actually have a much lengthier bowl history, but lately they have been so-so. Air Force is 6-9 SU in their past 15 bowl games, although they did win the Arizona Bowl on Dec. 30, 2016 against South Alabama in their most recent appearance. Air Force is 1-4 SU all-time against the Pac-12 in bowl games, including a 55-36 loss to Cal in the most recent battle on Dec. 29, 2015.


-- Air Force is 5-2 ATS in the past seven games overall, and 5-2 ATS in the past seven bowl games. They're 21-7 ATS in the past 28 non-conference tilts, too.


-- Washington State is 3-8 ATS in the past 11 games overall, but they're 5-2 ATS in the past seven non-conference tilts, and 15-7 ATS in the past 22 as an underdog.


-- The under is 4-1 in the past five games overall, and 4-1 in the past five as a favorite. The under is 7-2 in the past nine non-conference battles, while going 4-1 in the past five as a favorite. The over is 4-0 in their past four neutral-site games, and 4-1 in the past five bowl games.

 

[CNOTES]

Friday's Bowl Tip Sheet
December 26, 2019
By Joe Williams


Texas Bowl (ESPN, 6:45 p.m. ET)
Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M
Texas Bowl Betting History


-- The Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-4 straight up, 8-3-1 against the spread) from the Big 12 Conference will square off with the Texas A&M Aggies (7-5 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) from the Southeastern Conference in the Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl in Houston, Tex. at NRG Stadium.


-- The Cowboys opened the season 3-0 SU/ATS, but the wins were against Oregon State, McNeese of the FCS and Tulsa. They lost a narrow 36-30 game at Texas Sept. 21 for their first loss, although they ended up with the cover. In fact, they covered their first five games of the season. They topped a very good Kansas State team 26-13 on Sept. 28, and fell against Texas Tech and Baylor in the following two weekends, mainly due to defensive lapses. They yielded 45 points in each of those games. They were better defensively during a four-game win streak against Iowa State, TCU, Kansas and West Virginia, yielding just 20.0 PPG, which is pretty outstanding for the Big 12. They were dumped 34-16 in 'Bedlam', the season-ending rivalry game against Oklahoma.


-- It's all about RB Chuba Hubbard for the Cowboys. He rushed 309 times for 1,936 yards and 21 touchdowns, averaging 6.3 yards per carry. Offensively, the Cowboys were 17th in total yards overall, posting 463.9 yards per game. They're 16th in rushing yards per contest (236.3), while ending up 71st in passing yards (227.7). They scored 33.4 points per game to rank 34th offensively. For the defense, they were 86th in total yards (418.1), 113th in passing yards (267.1) and 59th in rushing yards (151.0) allowed. They yielded 27.0 points per game to check in a mediocre 63rd.


-- The Aggies dropped four games this season, but those losses were against Alabama, Auburn, Clemson, Georgia and LSU. Two of those teams are in the playoffs, and all five were in the mix late into the season. What will we get from Oklahoma State?


-- Texas A&M ranked 71st in total yards (399.2), 54th in passing yards (247.1) and 77th in rushing yards (152.1) per game, while posting 30.0 points per game to rank 62nd in the nation. On defense, the Aggies were pretty strong, allowing 341.0 yards per game to rank 31st, they were 48th against the pass (211.7) and 29th against the run (129.3), which is the important stat as they try to contain Hubbard. That will be the prime matchup. They also allowed 22.7 points per game to rank 37th in the country.


-- The Aggies have made 41 previous bowl appearances dating back to 1922. That includes a 33-16 victory over Oklahoma State in the 1981 Independence Bowl. The Aggies have been exciting lately, win or lose. They blasted North Carolina State 52-13 last season in the Gator Bowl, while losing 55-52 to Wake Forest in the Belk Bowl in 2017. They have scored 21 or more points in nine straight games dating back to the 2009 Independence Bowl.


-- For the Cowboys, they have won three straight bowl appearances, including last season's 38-33 win over Missouri in the Liberty Bowl. They have won seven of the past nine bowl games overall. They last appeared in a bowl game in 2016, topping Colorado 38-8 in the Alamo Bowl. They lost the 2013 Cotton Bowl to Missouri by a 41-31 score, and the year before they topped Purdue 58-14 in the Heart of Dallas Bowl. They also won the 2010 Alamo Bowl in 2010, so Texas has been very good to the Cowboys, and they generally travel well with such close proximity to Stillwater. That will be important since this time they're playing a Texas-based school.


-- Oklahoma State heads into this one 12-2 ATS in the past 14 games as an underdog, and 9-3-1 ATS in the past 13 overall. They're also 21-8 ATS in the past 29 non-conference tilts, and 9-2 ATS in the past 11 against teams with a winning overall record.


-- The Cowboys are also 4-1 ATS in the past five bowl games, and 5-1 ATS in the past six neutral-site games, while going 4-1 ATS in the past five neutral-site games as an underdog.


-- Texas A&M is 16-5-1 ATS in the past 22 as a favorite, and they're 11-1 ATS in their past 12 non-conference tilts.


-- The under is 4-1 in OK State's past five games overall, 5-0 in the past five neutral-site games and 5-0 in their past five bowl games.


-- The over is 5-2 in A&M's past seven neutral-site games, 9-3 in the past 12 non-conference tilts and 5-1 in their past six bowl outings.


-- These teams have a history, with Oklahoma State going 4-0-1 ATS in the past five meetings, with the over 6-2 in the previous eight.


Holiday Bowl (FOX Sports 1, 8:00 p.m.)
Southern California vs. Iowa
Holiday Bowl Betting History


-- The San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl will feature the Southern California Trojans (8-4 straight up, 6-5-1 against the spread) against the Iowa Hawkeyes (9-3 straight up, 5-7 against the spread) at San Diego County Credit Union Stadium in San Diego, Calif.


-- Head coach Clay Helton has continued to put together wins despite a multitude of injuries and a fanbase which seemingly always wants him gone. USC beat Fresno State and Stanford to open the season, but lost to BYU 30-27 in overtime on Sept. 14. They topped a playoff-contending Utah team by a 30-23 score on Sept. 20 before an ugly loss at Washington on Sept. 28. A loss at Notre Dame on Oct. 12 had them at a crossroads at 3-3 SU/ATS. However, they rattled off wins in five of their final six games to turn things around, including road wins at Arizona State and California in November.


-- The Trojans lost QB JT Daniels (knee) to a season-ending knee injury in the opening game. Enter freshman QB Kedon Slovis, who was an unknown. All he did was emerge with 3,242 passing yards, connecting with WR Michael Pittman Jr. for 1,222 of them, as the offense rolled along despite the losses. In fact, they lost leading rusher RB Vavae Malepeai to injury for a long period, other key skill position members were also hurt, and at one point they were down to fifth-string RB Kenan Christon to serve as the workhorse. They overcame, and now they're pretty healthy heading into the Iowa game.


-- The offense posted 462.2 total yards per game to rank 18th in the nation, including fifth in the pass game at 335.9 yards. They were 113th with 126.3 rushing yards per game, again, they were devastated by injuries at that position. They ranked 36th with 33.2 points per game. Defensively they were 83rd in total yards allowed (415.3), 99th in passing yards allowde (248.9), 76th in rushing yards allowed (166.3) and 66th in points allowed (27.8).


-- Iowa was boring offensively, as they ranked just 98th in total yards (369.8), 67th in passing yards (230.3) and 97th in rushing yards (139.5) while ranking 99th in points per game (23.8). On defense, that's where Iowa had most of their success, allowing just 304.6 total yards per game to rank 12th in the nation, while checking in 11th with 184.2 passing yards per game. They were 25th against the run, too, giving up just 120.4 yards per outing while yielding only 13.2 PPG to rank fifth in the country.


-- These teams have met before in a bowl game, facing each other in the Orange Bowl back on Jan. 2, 2003, in a game which I actually attended. That day it was all USC, as they thrashed the Hawkeyes 38-17 with Pete Carroll at the helm for the Trojans. That's the only meeting in a bowl game between the institutions. USC played a Big Ten team last time they were in a bowl, falling 24-7 in the Cotton Bowl Classic against Ohio Stae on Dec. 29, 2017. Ovearll the Trojans have won eight of the past 10 against the Big Ten, however, in bowl games.


-- The Trojans are 6-2-1 ATS in the past nine against winning teams, but they're just 4-14 ATS in the past 18 as an underdog and 0-4 ATS in their past four bowl games. They're also 0-5 ATS in the past five vs. Big Ten, and 0-7 ATS in the past seven neutral-site games.


-- The Hawkeyes are 6-2 ATS in the past eight non-conference battles, while going 3-1-1 ATS in the past five games in December.


-- USC has hit the over in five in a row, while going 11-4-1 in the past 16 neutral-site games.


-- The under is 8-2-1 in the past 11 games overall for Iowa, and 6-1-1 in their past eight as a favorite. However, the over is 5-0 in their past five appearances on a Friday, 4-1 in the past five bowl games and 3-1-1 in their past five non-conference tilts.




Cheez-It Bowl (ESPN, 10:15 p.m.)
Air Force vs. Washington State
Cheez-It Bowl Betting History


-- The Cheez-It Bowl features the Air Force Falcons (10-2 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) from the Mountain West Conference facing off against the Washington State Cougars (6-6 straight-up, 4-8 against the spread) from the Pac-12 Conference at Chase Field in Phoenix, Ariz.


-- It was a strange season for the Cougars. It went downhilll against UCLA on Sept. 21, as they blew a giant lead and fell 67-63 in a memorable game where QB Anthony Gordon threw for nine touchdowns -- and they lost! He ended up with 5,228 passing yards overall this season, spreading it out amongst a bevy of consistent receivers. You never knew what Washington State team would show up. They were thrashed at Utah 38-13, but lost a narrow 37-35 game at Oregon on Oct. 26, blowing a game they probably should've won outright. They blasted Stanford 49-22, they edged Oregon State 54-53 on Nov. 23, showing off the pass attack again, and they were dumped 31-13 in the Apple Cup vs. Washington.


-- Air Force did what they do best this season - run. The triple-option is still working wonders for the Falcons, as they won 10 and lost just two, a 30-19 loss at Boise State on Sept. 20, and a 34-25 loss at Navy, against a fellow triple-option team. They won seven in a row to close out the season, including against bowl teams Hawai'i and Utah State.


-- USAFA ranked 51st in total yards per game (424.0), while going for 131.0 passing yards per contest to rank 124th. They were third overall with 293.0 rushing yards per game, and that's where Washington State's D needs to focus. The Falcons scored 34.3 points per game to rank 22nd. Defensively, Air Force allowed 315.8 total yards to rank 16th, while ranking 40th against the pass (208.1), 11th against the run (107.7) and 19th in points scored (19.8).


-- Washington State was ridiculous offensively, and ridiculously bad defensively, which explains why they were just .500. They were sixth overall with 516.8 total yards per game, and fifth in passing yards with 444.3 yards per game. They barely ran the ball, posting just 72.5 yards per game to rank 129th in FBS. They were 10th in points scored at 39.2 per game. Defensively...ugh. They allowed 456.8 total yards per game to rank 113th, they were 122nd against the pass (286.8), and 78th against the run (170.0). They allowed 31.4 points per game to check in 94th.


-- The Cougs are 8-7 in 15 previous bowl games, including 2-3 in the past five appearances under Mike Leach. The won last season's Alamo Bowl against Iowa State by a 28-26 score.


-- The Falcons actually have a much lengthier bowl history, but lately they have been so-so. Air Force is 6-9 SU in their past 15 bowl games, although they did win the Arizona Bowl on Dec. 30, 2016 against South Alabama in their most recent appearance. Air Force is 1-4 SU all-time against the Pac-12 in bowl games, including a 55-36 loss to Cal in the most recent battle on Dec. 29, 2015.


-- Air Force is 5-2 ATS in the past seven games overall, and 5-2 ATS in the past seven bowl games. They're 21-7 ATS in the past 28 non-conference tilts, too.


-- Washington State is 3-8 ATS in the past 11 games overall, but they're 5-2 ATS in the past seven non-conference tilts, and 15-7 ATS in the past 22 as an underdog.


-- The under is 4-1 in the past five games overall, and 4-1 in the past five as a favorite. The under is 7-2 in the past nine non-conference battles, while going 4-1 in the past five as a favorite. The over is 4-0 in their past four neutral-site games, and 4-1 in the past five bowl games.

 

[CNOTES]

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 27
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


UNC at TEM 12:00 PM
TEM +6.0
O 55.5


MSU at WAKE 03:20 PM
WAKE +4.0
O 49.0


OKST at TAM 06:45 PM
OKST +5.0
O 55.0


USC at IOWA 08:00 PM
IOWA -2.5
U 52.5


AFA at WSU 10:15 PM
AFA -3.0
U 68.5

 

[Udog]

LSU vs. Oklahoma
Brian Edwards

LSU Tigers vs. Oklahoma Sooners

Venue: at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
Time/TV: Saturday, December 28, 4:00 PM ET ESPN
Line: LSU -13.5, Over/Under 76

Before making it to Atlanta for its Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl showdown against Louisiana State in the College Football Playoff semifinals, No. 4 Oklahoma lost four key players that’ll be missed against the unbeaten and top-ranked Tigers.

First, SoonerScoop.com reported that three players were suspended on Dec. 18. At his first media event in Atlanta on Dec. 23, OU head coach Lincoln Riley confirmed the suspensions but refused to elaborate on the reasoning behind those players being ‘out’ vs LSU.

The trio of suspended players includes DE Ronnie Perkins, second-string RB Rhamondre Stevenson and backup freshman WR Trejan Bridges. Perkins, a sophomore who has played in all 13 games, has recorded 28 solo tackles, 10 assists, 7.5 tackles for loss, six sacks, six QB hurries and one forced fumble.

Stevenson has appeared in all 13 OU games. The junior RB has 515 rushing yards, six TDs and an 8.1 yards-per-carry average. Bridges is a five-star recruit who didn’t figure to play much vs. LSU anyway. The true freshman has only seven catches for 82 yards.

Making matters worse, SoonerScoop reported on Dec. 20 that starting sophomore safety Delarrin Turner-Yell suffered a broken collarbone at practice. Three days later, Riley confirmed the injury and said, “Right now our expectation is that [Turner-Yell] will not play, but we’ll how see the week goes.”

LSU (13-0 straight up, 8-5 against the spread) dominated Georgia 37-10 to win the SEC Championship Game, easily cashing tickets as a seven-point favorite. Joe Burrow, who won the Heisman Trophy a week later, completed 28-of-38 passes for 349 yards and four touchdowns without an interception.

Justin Jefferson had seven receptions for 115 yards and one TD, while Terrace Marshall Jr. hauled in five catches for 89 yards and two TDs. Clyde Edwards-Helaire had 57 rushing yards on 15 attempts, in addition to catching seven balls for 61 receiving yards.

LSU darted out to a 14-0 lead at the end of the first quarter, hooking up its backers on first-quarter bets as a 3.5-point ‘chalk.’

UGA’s Rodrigo Blankenship briefly stopped the bleeding with a 39-yard field goal to get the Bulldogs on the board, but Cade York extended the Tigers’ lead to 17-3 with a 41-yard FG with 2:22 left until halftime.

York added a 28-yarder early in the third quarter for a 20-3 LSU lead. Then Burrow found Marshall for a four-yard scoring strike with 2:18 left in the third. The Tigers added an eight-yard TD pass from Burrow to Jefferson to make it 34-3, and the blowout was on before the fourth quarter started.

LSU freshman CB Derek Stingley intercepted Georgia QB Jake Fromm twice and had five tackles.

Edwards-Helaire is ‘questionable’ vs. LSU due to a hamstring injury suffered at practice earlier this month, although head coach Ed Orgeron stated Friday that he “believes he’ll play.” Edwards-Helaire has rushed for 1,290 yards and 16 TDs, averaging 6.6 yards per carry. He leads the SEC in all-purpose yards with 1,903.

As of early Friday, most books had LSU listed as a 13.5-point favorite with a total of 76. The Sooners were +425 on the money line. For first half-wagers, the Tigers were favored by 7.5 points.

Back on Dec. 8., the Westgate SuperBook opened LSU as a 12.5-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 76.5. The total dipped as low as 75.5 points about a week ago, before inching back up to 76. The Tigers have bounced around in the -13 to -14 range over the last several weeks.

Orgeron’s team is 5-4-1 ATS in its 10 games as a double-digit favorite this year. The Tigers have won 10 of their 13 games by margins of 14 points or more. They won 45-38 at Texas, 46-41 at Alabama and 23-20 vs. Auburn in Baton Rouge.

Although those three final scores were the closest games LSU played, Florida probably gave the Tigers their toughest test in Redstick on Oct. 12. When LSU scored each of its three first-half TDs, the Gators answered each one with a TD drive of their own.

With the game tied 21-21 at halftime, Florida took the opening kick of the second half and promptly marched down the field and took the lead. Kyle Trask hit Van Jefferson for a two-yard TD pass and a 28-21 advantage.

Edwards-Helaire scored on a five-yard TD run to get LSU back even. After getting a stop, the Tigers went back in front 35-28 on a 33-yard TD run from Tyrion Davis-Prince with 3:15 left in the third stanza.

After UF came up empty on a red-zone trip when Stingley intercepted Trask in the end zone, LSU went up 42-28 on Burrow’s 54-yard TD pass to Ja’Marr Chase. The final score was 42-28 after the Gators came up short of the end zone on a fourth-and-goal play from LSU’s one with less than two minutes remaining.

LSU posted other wins over bowl-bound teams, winning 55-7 vs. Georgia Southern, 36-13 at Mississippi State, 42-6 vs. Utah State and 50-17 vs. Texas A&M.

Burrow produced monster numbers that led to run-away win in the voting for the Heisman. The grad transfer from Ohio State completed 77.9 percent of his passes for 4,715 yards with a 48/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He keeps plays alive with his elusiveness in the pocket, and he’s not hesitant to tuck it and run for first downs. Burrow was especially effective at doing that on several big plays in the second half at Alabama. He has 289 rushing yards and three TDs.

Chase has 73 receptions for 1,498 yards and 18 TDs despite missing one game injured. Jefferson has 88 catches for 1,207 yards and 14 TDs, while Marshall has 37 grabs for 545 yards and 10 TDs. Marshall missed three games with a broken bone in his foot sustained in a 66-38 win at Vanderbilt on Sept. 21.

LSU leads the nation in total offense, is second in passing yards and third in scoring with its 47.8 points-per-game average.

Oklahoma (12-1 SU, 5-8 ATS) is facing an SEC opponent in the CFP semifinals for the third straight season. After coming up short to Georgia in a 54-48 double-overtime thriller at the 2017 Rose Bowl, the Sooners lost 45-34 to Alabama at last year’s Orange Bowl. However, they covered the spread in backdoor fashion as 13.5-point underdogs.

Lincoln Riley’s team is mired in a 2-7 ATS slump, but that factoid has zero relevance since the Sooners are underdogs for the first time this season. During Riley’s three-year tenure, Oklahoma has compiled a 3-1 spread record and collected a pair of outright wins in four games as an underdog.

This is only the second time on Riley’s watch that OU has been a double-digit underdog. As previously noted, the Sooners took the money vs. ‘Bama last year.

Oklahoma won its first five games by margins of 18 points or more. The Sooners improved to 7-0 with wins vs. Texas (34-27) and vs. West Virginia (52-14). They went into Kansas State as a 23.5-point road favorite and found itself down 48-23 after the Wildcats scored on a two-yard TD run by James Gilbert with 12:54 remaining.

OU wouldn’t quit, though. Twenty-two seconds later, Jalen Hurts found CeeDee Lamb for a 70-yard scoring strike. Then with 5:36 remaining, a one-yard TD run from Hurts, in addition to a three-yard pass to Lamb for a two-point conversion, trimmed the deficit to 48-38. The Sooners made it a one-possession game when Gabe Brkic buried a 39-yard field goal with 1:45 left.

OU initially seemed to be in business when it recovered the ensuing onside kick, but replay reviews showed that a Sooner had touched the ball before it had gone 10 yards. Therefore, K-State ran out the clock and captured a 48-41 upset victory.

With one loss, Riley’s bunch remained in the hunt for a CFP berth, albeit with zero room for error. Therefore, Oklahoma fans had to deal with a lot of anxiety when four of its next five games were of the one-possession variety.

After an open date following the loss at Kansas State, OU won a 42-41 decision over Iowa State as a 14-point home favorite. Next, Riley’s team went to Waco to face undefeated Baylor as an 11-point road ‘chalk.’

The Bears raced out to a 31-10 halftime lead. Oklahoma pulled to within 31-17 on Hurts’s three-yard TD pass to Austin Stogner midway through the third quarter. With 12:58 remaining in the final stanza, Hurts found Theo Wease for a 19-yard scoring connection. Hurts’s fourth TD pass and third of the second half was a two-yard scoring strike to Brayden Willis with 5:25 left to tie the game at 31-31.

Oklahoma escaped unscathed with a 34-31 win when Brkic’s 31-yard field goal was true with 1:45 remaining.

Back in Norman the following week, Oklahoma raced out to a 21-0 lead on TCU. The Horned Frogs wouldn’t go away, though, scoring 10 unanswered point to slice the deficit to 11 by halftime. Then with 10:15 left in the third, TCU got to within 21-17. After Hurts scored on an eight-yard TD run, the Sooners were in front by 11 points.

On the verge of putting the game on ice early in the fourth, Hurts was intercepted for a 98-yard pick-six. With the Frogs trailing by just four points, OU’s defense didn’t allow them to get any closer over the final 12 minutes, holding on for a 28-24 triumph.

Many felt OU would get a tough test in Stillwater in its regular-season finale, but that didn’t happen. The Sooners controlled the second half and pulled away for a 34-16 win at Oklahoma State. They covered the rich spread, too, as 14-point road ‘chalk.’

Going into Championship Weekend earlier this month, Oklahoma needed Oregon to beat Utah and LSU to take care of UGA. Obviously, it had to take care of its own business with a rematch vs. Baylor at Jerry World in the Big 12 Championship Game.

Riley’s team took a 10-0 first-quarter lead thanks to a six-yard TD run from Kennedy Brooks and a 44-yard FG from Brkic. Baylor owned the second quarter, however, despite losing starting QB Charlie Brewer to a concussion. The Bears took a 13-10 advantage into intermission.

A pair of 24-yard FGs from Brkic and an 18-yard TD pass from Hurts to Nick Basquine put Oklahoma ahead 23-13 with 10:31 left. At this point, another QB injury had Baylor using third-string signal caller Jacob Zeno, a true freshman who had only appeared in one game previously and is being redshirted.

With 9:41 remaining, Zeno found Trestan Ebner for an 81-yard TD pass to trim the deficit to three. When John Mayers hit a 27-yard FG with 3:25 left, Baylor was back even at 23-23. The game would go to overtime.

In the first extra session, Stevenson found paydirt on a five-yard TD run. Then the Oklahoma defense got a stop to conserve a 30-23 victory and give the Sooners the No. 4 slot in the CFP.

For the season, Hurts has connected on 71.8 percent of his throws for 3,632 yards with a 32/7 TD-INT ratio. He paces the Sooners with 1,255 rushing yards and 18 TDs, averaging 5.7 YPC. Hurts was one of four finalists for the Heisman.

Hurts’s collegiate career has been legendary. He led Alabama to the CFP finals as a freshman and a sophomore, scoring the go-ahead TD on a run at crunch time vs. Clemson as a freshman, only to see Deshaun Watson throw a game-winning TD pass with two seconds remaining just moments later.

Then as a sophomore, Hurts was yanked to start the third quarter of the CFP finals against Georgia in Atlanta. He didn’t pout and played the role of the ultimate teammate as Tua Tagovailoa led the Crimson Tide to a 26-23 comeback win over UGA in overtime. As a junior in 2018, Hurts was relegated to Tagovailoa’s backup, but he continued to be a great teammate and was ready when his number was called at last year’s SEC Championship Game.

When Tagovailoa was injured late in the third quarter, Hurts was the catalyst in leading Alabama back from a 14-point deficit to beat UGA 35-28. That propelled the Tide to another CFP berth, but they lost 44-16 to Clemson in the finals. Atlanta was the venue where he lost his job in January of 2018, and it was the place of his resurrection of sorts 11 months later. Therefore, it’s only fitting that his fourth career appearance in the CFP comes against an SEC foe in a familiar city, The ATL.

For his career, Hurts has a 65.6 completion percentage, 9,260 passing yards and an 80/19 TD-INT ratio. He has 3,231 rushing yards and 41 TDs, in addition to five receptions for 40 yards and one TD.

Lamb is his favorite target, hauling in 57 receptions for 1,206 yards and 14 TDs. Chareston Rambo has 42 catches for 734 yards and five TDs.

Brooks has 976 rushing yards, five TDs and a 6.7 YPC average. He suffered a head injury vs. Baylor earlier this month, but he’s good to go vs. LSU and will have to carry the load on the ground.

The ‘under’ has cashed in four straight games for the Sooners to improve to 7-5-1 overall. This is OU’s fourth-highest total of the year and its highest since an Oct. 12 win over Texas. When Oklahoma topped the Longhorns 34-27, the 61 combined points dropped way below the 77.5-point tally. Totals have been an overall wash (2-2) when the Sooners have had totals in the 70s. In its season opener, OU had its highest total in a 49-31 win over Houston that saw the 80 combined points push to the 80-point number.

The ‘over’ is 8-5 overall for LSU, but the ‘under’ has cashed in back-to-back games. This is the highest total the Tigers have seen in 2019. The previous high was 72 points in a home game vs. Utah State, which ended up being their third-lowest combined score. LSU beat the Aggies 42-6, with the 48 combined points falling ‘under’ the 72-point tally.

Kickoff on ESPN is scheduled for Saturday afternoon at 4:00 p.m. ET.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

-- Mississippi State starting QB Garrett Shrader is ‘out’ of the Music City Bowl vs. Louisville due to an eye injury. According to multiple reports, Shrader and junior LB Willie Gay were involved in an altercation that caused the injury. Further testing on Shrader’s eye revealed damage to his orbital bone, although he isn’t expected to need surgery. Nevertheless, he’s ‘out’ against the Cardinals and senior QB Tommy Stevens will get the starting nod. The Bulldogs are favored by four points at most books. Gay, who was suspended for eight regular-season games due to an academic issue, is expected to play.

-- Justin Wilcox announced on Dec. 23 that nine California players won’t play vs. Illinois in the Redbox Bowl. Three of those players are starters and a fourth was going to start against the Fighting Illini. Fifth-year senior safety Ashtyn Davis is ‘out’ after undergoing what Wilcox dubbed as “minor surgery.” In 11 games, Davis had 33 solo tackles, 24 assists, four passes broken up, two forced fumbles, two interceptions and one tackle for loss. Starting WR Jordan Duncan has been “excused” from the team to handle personal matters, according to Wilcox. Duncan is a two-year starter who has 25 receptions for 364 yards and two TDs. Junior LB Telvin Paul (28 tackles, three sacks) and safety Trey Turner III (32 tackles and four PBU) are the other starters who are ‘out.’ Illinois is dealing with a slew of injuries, too, most notably starting QB Brandon Peters and Butkus Award semifinalist Jake Hansen. The Golden Bears are favored by six or 6.5 points at most spots.

-- The ‘under’ is on a 7-1-1 run for Kansas State in its last nine games. The Wildcats face Navy with a total of 52 points.

-- Miami, Fl. fired OC Dan Enos today. Reports of his pending dismissal surfaced hours before yesterday’s Independence Bowl in Shreveport, where La. Tech dealt out cream-cheese treatment to the Hurricanes in a 14-0 win as a seven-point underdog. The Bulldogs cashed money-line tickets in the +220 neighborhood.

-- Eastern Michigan improved to 24-5-2 ATS in its last 31 games as an underdog in last night’s gut-wrenching loss to Pitt at the Quick Lane Bowl. The Eagles lost a 34-30 decision when Pitt took its first lead of the game on a TD with 47 ticks left. Nevertheless, the Eagles easily took the cash as 12-point underdogs. They fell to 0-3 SU but 3-0 ATS in bowl games during Chris Creighton’s tenure. EMU hasn’t won a bowl game since 1987.

-- Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman has hired FSU’s Kendal Briles as the Razorbacks’ next offensive coordinator. That’s two quality coordinator hires for Pittman, who also scored former Missouri HC Barry Odom as his new DC.

-- Reports out of Gainesville indicate that Florida Gators star DE Jabari Zuniga has been practicing and will play vs. Virginia in the Orange Bowl. Since Zuniga suffered a severe ankle sprain at Kentucky in Week 3, he’s tried to make comebacks in key games at LSU vs. UGA, only to suffer setbacks each time. When healthy, Zuniga is one of the nation’s top pass rushers.

-- Florida, a 14 or 14.5-point ‘chalk’ vs. UVA, is 5-0 ATS as a double-digit favorite this year.

 

[Udog]

Clemson vs. Ohio State
Joe Nelson

Clemson Tigers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes

Clemson and Ohio State meet in Saturday’s Fiesta Bowl in a pairing of undefeated teams for the College Football Playoff semifinals. Both teams are far from home in Glendale but both programs have College Football Playoff Championships in the five years of the existence of the playoff format and this is perhaps the most highly anticipated game of the bowl season as dominant 13-0 programs face off.

Venue: At State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona
Time/TV: Saturday, December 28, 8:00 PM ET ESPN
Line: Clemson -2, Over/Under 63
Last Meeting: 12/31/2016 Fiesta Bowl CFP Semifinals Clemson (+1) 31, Ohio State 0

Three seasons ago these teams met in this same stadium in the 2/3 matchup of College Football Playoffs. The spread was nearly even and Clemson delivered a blowout win 31-0 with a huge production edge of 470-215. Deshaun Watson and J.T. Barrett had a pair of interceptions each but the Clemson running game had a clear edge while the Tigers were able to hit a few big plays in the air. Clemson would go on to beat Alabama in the championship game for the first of now two titles for Dabo Swinney.

Clemson also beat Ohio State in the 2013-14 Orange Bowl a year before the playoff format and Clemson enters this game on a 29-game winning streak, completing a perfect 15-0 championship season last year and this year again unblemished with only one close call back in late September in Chapel Hill with a one-point escape.

The Tigers didn’t look like a dominant team early in the season as coming off brilliant championship performance last season, quarterback Trevor Lawrence battled interceptions early in the season. The Tigers closed the season on a dominant run with Lawrence combining for 16 touchdowns and no interceptions in the final five games of the season. 1,500-yard rusher Travis Etienne has often been overlooked despite an amazing 8.2 yards per carry average this season as the Tigers scored 605 points this season for more than 46 points per game.

Clemson is the #3 seed however having played through a light ACC schedule and high-quality wins are absent from the schedule with the best results coming over 7-5 Texas A&M, 9-4 Virginia, 8-4 Wake Forest, 7-5 Louisville, and 6-6 North Carolina. The Tigers did technically beat seven bowl teams when you add Charlotte and Boston College to the mix but behind Clemson it was a clear down year for the ACC. The Tigers beat two SEC teams but Texas A&M and South Carolina both had disappointing seasons and like many ACC teams, Clemson also played a FCS foe to pad the numbers.

Swinney is 9-5 straight up and 10-4 against the spread in his bowl and playoff games but after starting 1-3 both SU and ATS, the Tigers have been on a roll in the postseason under his watch with the only ATS loss in that span being the 2017-18 Sugar Bowl vs. the eventual national champion Alabama. Clemson has actually been an underdog in nine of the past 10 postseason games with the lone exception last season’s 30-3 win over undefeated Notre Dame in the semifinals.

In contrast to Swinney’s amazing resume, Ohio State head coach Ryan Day will be a head coach for the first time in a postseason game. Day filled in for Urban Meyer for three wins early last season and is now 16-0 as a head coach for the Buckeyes for an amazing start to his career. Day has only been with the program since 2017 as an assistant with past experience in the NFL as well as with Temple and Boston College. Despite his success, his first season will ultimately be judged on this game alone with the Buckeyes back into the playoffs after narrowly missing out as Big Ten champions the past two seasons.

Controversially Ohio State was flipped from the #1 seed in the playoff rankings to the #2 seed, passed up by LSU following the respective Big Ten and SEC championship wins. LSU was more impressive vs. a higher rated foe on championship Saturday but Ohio State’s overall resume bested LSU’s in many of the counts that the selection committee values.

On championship Saturday four teams that Ohio State defeated in the regular season were playing in championship games as the Buckeyes wound up with nine wins over bowl teams. Ohio State was penalized for a poor first half vs. Wisconsin in Indianapolis as well as not getting as much credit for beating a highly regarded Wisconsin team twice compared to if they defeated two distinct similarly highly rated teams. Ultimately Ohio State has five wins over teams rated higher in the playoff rankings than Clemson’s best win over #24 Virginia, including four wins vs. the top 14.

Day was not the only new piece for the Buckeyes, led by Georgia transfer Justin Fields at quarterback. Fields left Georgia last season after not getting a great opportunity behind Jake Fromm. In his first season as a starting quarterback he delivered an incredible campaign finishing third in the Heisman voting with an amazing line of 40 touchdowns and one interception while also rushing for nearly 500 yards. J.K. Dobbins eclipsed 1,800 yards rushing and along with star defensive end Chase Young, that trio comprised half of the top six in the Heisman voting. Ohio State outscored foes 633-163 on the season with dominant numbers, though the defense allowed 17 or more points in each of the final four games following seven straight games allowing 14 or fewer points.

Ohio State has not been an underdog in the postseason since winning the initial College Football Playoff championship game 42-20 vs. Oregon in January 2015. The Buckeyes have been the Rose Bowl champion the past two seasons and this is the first playoff trip since the ugly loss in Glendale vs. Clemson.

Ohio State has been an underdog six times since the start of the 2012 season going 6-0 S/U and ATS including winning 62-39 vs. Michigan last season in the only instance getting points since the 2014-15 national championship. Clemson has rarely been in the small favorite role under Swinney going 4-5 S/U and 3-6 ATS as a favorite of 3 or fewer points, though all but one of those games was a regular season contest.

Clemson wound up 10-3 ATS this season including 10-2 ATS in FBS games, going 7-0 ATS in FBS games since October started for an incredible run, as a lot of folks fared well supporting the Tigers even at inflated prices including a 30-point spread in the ACC Championship. Ohio State wound up 9-4 ATS this season but lost ATS in three of the final four games including missing the spread in big games vs. Penn State and in the Big Ten championship after an 8-0 ATS run September to early November, with the Buckeyes also faring extremely well in first half numbers.

The victor of this game will head to New Orleans for the national championship in what could be a very hostile environment depending on the Peach Bowl outcome but either team will be a serious threat for the title as this semifinal figures to live up to the billing and hype as one of the best playoff pairings in the history of the format.

 

[Udog]

Saturday's Bowl Tips
Joe Williams

Camping World Bowl (ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Notre Dame vs. Iowa State

-- The independent Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-2 straight up, 8-4 against the spread) face off with the Iowa State Cyclones (7-5 straight up, 5-6-1 against the spread) from the Big 12 Conference in the Camping World Bowl in Orlando, Fla.

-- The FightIng Irish have a rich bowl history, but surprisingly they're 18-19 in their 37 bowl games overall, including an 18-14 loss against Florida State back on Dec. 29, 2011 in this very stadium in the then-named Champs Sports Bowl. They were also tossed aside 30-3 by Clemson is last season's Cotton Bowl in the first-round of the College Football playoffs.

-- The Cyclones of Iowa State do not have as great of a bowl record as Notre Dame. They didn't even play in their first bowl game, surprisingly, until 1971. They were 0-4 in the 70's, and they didn't break through for their first bowl victory until 2000 in the Insight.com Bowl against Pittsburgh, 37-29, behind QB Sage Rosenfels. That was one of just four wins in 14 bowl tries, including a loss last season in the Alamo Bowl against Washington State. This will be the second-ever trip to Florida during bowl season, with Iowa State losing 28-12 in the Hall of Fame Classic in 1978 against Texas A&M in Tampa.

-- Notre Dame had an extremely challenging schedule, and after 10 wins they likely were hoping to land in a more prestigious bowl with a better opponent. But this is a nice matchup for them, and with a chip on their shoulder they could be a dangerous opponent. Their only losses this season came at Georgia, 23-17 on Sept. 21, and at Michigan by a 45-14 count on Oct. 26. They have wins over bowl teams Louisville, Virginia, USC, Virginia Tech and Navy, and they enter on a five-game winning streak while covering the past four.

-- Iowa State was tripped up 27-17 at Kansas State in their rinale, and they dropped each of their past two true road games, including a 42-41 shootout loss at Oklahoma, a playoff team, on Nov. 9, in a highly entertaining game. They also suffered a setback against Oklahoma State at home, Iowa at home and on the road against Baylor. While they have five losses overall, three losses were by a total of four points, and all five setbacks were by a total of just 21 points. They'll fight right to the bitter end, and have the offensive firepower to stay in it.

-- The Fighting Irish ranked 45th in total offense with 431.3 yards per game, while posting 253.0 passing yards to check in 49th in the nation. They were also 46th in the country with 178.3 rushing yards per contest while ranking 13th with 37.1 points per contest. Defensively the Irish were stout, allowing just 325.6 total yards per outing to rank 21st, while ending up third with 163.7 passing yards per outing. If they fail anywhere, it's against the run, as they yielded 161.9 rushing yards per game, but they allowed just 18.7 points per outing to rank 14th.

-- The Cyclones ranked 20th with 459.0 total yards per game, while ranking ninth with 318.3 passing yards per outing. On the run they were just 96th, posting 140.7 yards per outing, while averaging 34.1 PPG to check in 26th. Defensively they were so-so, but in a pass-happy Big 12, their numbers were pretty good. They were 44th in total yards allowed at 362.2, while ranking 71st against the pass with 228.3 yards per game. On the ground, Iowa State allowed just 133.8 yards to rank 33rd, and they coughed up 25.3 PPG to rank 52nd.

-- Iowa State QB Brock Purdy rolled up 3,760 passing yards with 27 touchdowns and nine interceptions, and he also ran for eight scores. Notre Dame's Ian Book can also sling it, posting 2,792 yards with 33 touchdowns and just six interceptions while running for 537 yards and four more touchdowns. With those two under center on both sides, we could have quite the aerial show.

-- The Fighting Irish have covered four in a row, while going 4-0 ATS in the past four as a favorite and they're 4-0 ATS in the past four non-conference tilts, too. They're also 4-1 ATS in the past five neutral-site games, with that non-cover last season in the Cotton Bowl vs. Clemson.

-- The Cyclones are 19-6-1 ATS in the past 26 as an underdog, but just 2-5 ATS in the past seven non-conference games, and 1-4-1 ATS in the past six overall. They're also 0-4 ATS in the past four neutral-site games, and 1-5 ATS in the past six appearances in the month of December.

-- It's all under, all the time, for the Cyclones lately. The under is 21-10-2 in their past 33 games overall, and 6-2-1 in the past nine non-conference tilts. The under is 7-0-1 in their past eight neutral-site games, and 6-0-1 in the past seven bowl tilts. The under is also 4-0-1 in the past five in a bowl as an underdog, while going 9-2-1 in the past 12 against winning teams.

-- The under is 5-1 in Notre Dame's past six neutral-site battles, while going 5-2 in their past seven as a favorite.


Cotton Bowl Classic (ESPN, 12:00 p.m.)

Memphis vs. Penn State

-- The Cotton Bowl Classic features a battle between the high-flying Memphis Tigers (12-1 straight up, 8-5 against the spread) from the American Athletic Conference against the Penn State Nittany Lions (10-2 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) from the Big Ten Conference at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Tex.

-- Penn State was so-so offensively, ranking 64th with 403.7 total yards per game and 69th with 228.7 passing yards per contest. On the ground they managed 175.0 yards per outing to check in 49th, while averaging 34.3 points per game to end up 24th in the land. Defensively they were a lockdown team, ranking 23rd in total yards allowed (330.5), 78th with 232.5 passing yards allowed and just seventh in points per game allowed at 14.1. Against the run, a key for Penn State in this game, they were fifth overall with just 98.0 rushing yards per game allowed.

-- Memphis, the top Group of Five entrant, can really score. They're 10th in the nation with 480.7 total yards per game, 26th in passing yards (284.5) and 34th in rushing yards (196.2), while posting 40.5 points per game to rank eighth in the country. Defensively they can hold their own, ranking 49th with 372.3 total yards allowed, 34th against the pass (200.7) and 79th against the rush (171.6) while allowing 24.4 points per game to check in 76th.

-- Tigers freshman RB Kenneth Gainwell is a handful, as he rumbled for 1,425 yards on the ground while gathering 12 touchdowns. QB Brady White can sling it, too, though, going for 3,560 passing yards, so they're anything but one dimensional.

-- Nittany Lions QB Sean Clifford led the way with 2,521 yards, hitting WR KJ Hamler for 858 of those yards. Yetur Gross-Matos posted eight sacks. Clifford (leg) and Gross-Matos (arm) are each listed on the injury report, but both fully expected to play.

-- Memphis is hoping to turn things around in bowl games. They won their first two postseason appearances in 1971, and then 2003. However, they 2-7 since, including four straight bowl losses. They fell 37-34 to Wake Forest in the Birmingham Bowl last season.

-- Penn State has a lengthy bowl history, and most of it good. However, they haven't been great lately, going 3-6 SU in the past nine, including a loss to Kentucky in last season's Citrus Bowl. They have won two of five bowl trips under current head coach James Franklin. The last time they faced an AAC team in the postseason they lost to Houston in the TicketCity Bowl in the Cotton Bowl, 30-14, back on Jan. 2, 2012.

-- The Tigers are colkd against the number, going 4-9 ATS in the past 13 as an underdog, 1-6 ATS in the past seven neutral-site games and 0-4 ATS in their past four bowl appearances. In addition, they're 1-10 ATS in the past 11 games in the month of December.

-- Conversely, Penn State is 4-0 ATS in the past four December showings, while going 8-3-1 ATS in the past 12 non-conference tilts. They're also 20-9-2 ATS in the past 31 against winning teams, but just 1-4 ATS in the past five as a favorite.

-- For Memphis, the over is 7-3 in the past 10 games overall, while going 12-4 in the past 16 non-conference tilts and 6-2 in the past eight against winning teams. The over is also 10-2 in the past 12 as an underdog.

-- The over has hit in each of the past four neutral-site games for Penn State, while going 4-1 in their past five bowl appearances. The over is 8-1 in their past nine non-conference battles, too, while going 4-1 in the past five vs. AAC foes. The under is 7-3 in the past 10 overall for Penn State, however.

 

[CNOTES]

Michigan State beats Wake Forest 27-21 in Pinstripe Bowl
December 27, 2019
By The Associated Press


SAN DIEGO (AP) Ihmir Smith-Marsette scored on a 6-yard run, a 98-yard kickoff return and a 12-yard reception - all in the second quarter - in No. 19 Iowaâ??s 49-24 victory over No. 22 Southern California in the Holiday Bowl on Friday night.


Senior Nate Stanley threw two touchdown passes and the Hawkeyes (10-3) won their fourth straight game for their sixth 10-win season in coach Kirk Ferentz's 21 years.


USC freshman quarterback Kedon Slovis, who threw two touchdown passes, was knocked out of the game with an apparent arm injury early in the third quarter. The Trojans (8-5) had their three-game winning streak snapped. They fell apart after Slovis left.


Smith-Marsette helped the Hawkeyes to a 28-17 halftime lead.


Smith-Marsette scored on a 6-yard sweep for a 14-7 lead. After USC tied it on Slovis' 16-yard pass to Vavae Malepeai, Smith-Marsette returned the kickoff 98 yards to give the Hawkeyes the lead for good.


Smith-Marsette, a junior wide receiver, also had a 95-yard kickoff return for a score in the regular-season finale, a 27-24 victory over Nebraska.


Stanley found Smith-Marsette on a 12-yard scoring pass on Iowa's next possession for a 28-14 lead.


TEXAS BOWL


TEXAS A&M 24, OKLAHOMA STATE 21


HOUSTON (AP) - Kellen Mond ran for a career-high 117 yards and threw a touchdown pass as Texas A&M scored 24 straight points to overcome an early deficit and beat Oklahoma State in the Texas Bowl.


Mond ran 67 yards to give the Aggies (8-5) a 21-14 lead early in the fourth quarter. Mond cut to the right to avoid a couple of defenders and outran everyone else. Tre Sterling had a shot to tackle him around the 25, but Mond ran away from his diving attempt.


The Cowboys (8-5) went for it on fourth-and-1 from the Texas A&M 34 on their next possession, but Spencer Sanders was stopped for no gain.


The Aggies added a 24-yard field goal to make it 24-14 with about three minutes to go.


Oklahoma State cut the lead to three on a touchdown reception by Braydon Johnson with about a minute left. The Cowboys attempted an onside kick, but A&M recovered it to secure the victory.


Chuba Hubbard, who finished the regular season as the nation's leading rusher, ran for 158 yards, and Johnson had 124 yards receiving and two touchdowns for the Cowboys.


Hubbard finished the season with 2,094 yards rushing to become the second player in school history to reach 2,000, joining Barry Sanders, who did it in 1988 when he won the Heisman Trophy.


CHEEZ-IT BOWL


PHOENIX (AP) - Kadin Remsberg ran for 178 yards and stretched to the pylon for a 3-yard touchdown late in the fourth quarter, lifting No. 24 Air Force over Washington State in the Cheez-It Bowl.


The Falcons (11-2) had their triple option working to near perfection, grinding out 371 yards rushing while setting a Cheez-It Bowl time of possession record of 43:24.


Donald Hammond III scored two touchdowns and Remsberg had his fourth-down TD confirmed by review to help the Falcons close the season on an eight-game winning streak.


Anthony Gordon, the FBS passing leader, kept the Cougars within reach, throwing for 351 yards and three touchdowns. He hit Brandon Arconado on a 13-yard TD early in the fourth quarter to pull Washington State (6-7) within 24-21, but the Cougars had no answer for Air Force's triple-option attack.


PINSTRIPE BOWL


MICHIGAN STATE 27, WAKE FOREST 21


NEW YORK (AP) - Brian Lewerke threw for 320 yards and a touchdown and ran for a score in Michigan State's victory over Wake Forest in the Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium.


Lewerke threw a 10-yard pass to wide receiver Cody White in the third quarter to put the Spartans (7-6) ahead 27-21 and they survived down the stretch to give embattled coach Mark Dantonio his sixth bowl victory.


Wake Forest (8-5) missed a chance to win nine games for just the third time in program history.


Michigan State tried to give away the game twice in the fourth, the first time on Lewerke's shovel pass to tight end Trenton Gillison inside the 10 that was stripped and recovered by linebacker Ja'Cquez Williams at the 6.


The Deamon Deacons failed to score on the drive, and handed Michigan State another chance to seal the victory. Again, the Spartans couldn't put it away when Matt Coghlin was wide left on a 28-yard field goal attempt with 3:03 left Wake Forest's last chance ended on an incomplete pass on its own 16.


Lewerke passed Connor Cook (9,403) to become Michigan State's career leader in total offense and was the bowl MVP. White finished with 97 yards receiving, and Elijah Collins had 96 yards rushing.


Jamie Newman did all his damage for the Demon Deacons in the first half, throwing three touchdown passes for a 21-20 halftime lead.


MILITARY BOWL


NORTH CAROLINA 55, TEMPLE 13


ANNAPOLIS, Md. (AP) - Freshman Sam Howell threw for 294 yards and three touchdowns and caught a scoring pass in North Carolinaâ??s victory over Temple in the Military Bowl.


Howell completed 25 of 34 passes and ran for 53 yards on three carries to help the Tar Heels (7-6) to their first bowl victory since 2013. Temple (8-5) has gone to a bowl five years in a row - and lost four of them.


Howell threw two first-half touchdown to stake the Tar Heels to a 20-6 lead. They pulled in the third quarter, scoring two touchdowns in a 12-second span, the last on Storm Duckâ??s 20-yard interception return.


Howell completed the third-quarter blitz by catching a 2-yard TD pass from wide receiver Rontavius Groves at the end of a razzle-dazzle reverse to make it 41-6. Howell threw 38 touchdown passes this season, the most by a true freshman in FBS history.

 

[CNOTES]

SATURDAY DECEMBER 28, 2019
Time (ET) Bowl Away Home
12:00 PM Camping World Bowl Iowa State Cyclones Notre Dame Fighting Irish
12:00 PM Cotton Bowl Memphis Tigers Penn State Nittany Lions
4:00 PM Peach Bowl Oklahoma Sooners Louisiana State Tigers
8:00 PM Fiesta Bowl Clemson Tigers Ohio State Buckeyes




***************************




Bowl Games Best Bets & Opinions ( All Based On 5 Units )


DATE................W-L-T...........%........UNITS




12/27/2019.......5-5-0.......50.00%......-2.50
12/26/2019.......1-3-0.......25.00%......-11.50
12/24/2019.......2-0-0......100.00%....+10.00
12/23/2019.......1-1-0........50.00%.....-0.50
12/21/2019...... 4-8-0........33.33%....-24.00
12/20/2019.......1-1-0........50.00%.....-0.50


Totals.............14-18-0........43.75%.....-29.00




****************************************


Best Bets


Date......................Ats..................Uni ts...................O/U...................Units..............Total


12/27/2019..........3 - 2.................+4.00.................2 - 3................- 5.50..............-1.50
12/26/2019..........1 - 1..................-0.50.................0 - 2.................-11.00.............-11.50
12/24/2019..........1 - 0..................+5.00................1 - 0.................+5.00.............+10.00
12/23/2019..........0 - 1..................-5.50.................1 - 0.................+5.00..............-0.50
12/21/2019..........2 - 3..................-6.50.................1 - 4..................-17.00............-23.50
12/20/2019..........1 - 0.................+5.00.................0 - 1..................-5.50..............- 0.50


Totals..................8 - 7...................-1.50................5 - 10................-29.00.............-27.50

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday’s 6-pack


— North Carolina 55, Temple 13— Temple coach Carey is now 0-7 in bowls.


— Michigan 27, Wake Forest 21— Total was 51.5; no one scored in 4th quarter.


— Texas A&M 24, Oklahoma State 21— Aggies have only four seniors on whole roster.


— Air Force 31, Washington State 21— Flyboys ran ball for 371 yards.


— Falcons’ coach Dan Quinn will be back in Atlanta next year.


— Five bowl games on New Year’s Eve, only four on New Year’s Day; why?


Quote of the Day:
“We believe in championships here. Just as the fan base might be frustrated, the coaching staff and players are frustrated . . . we’re going to be a very good team next year.”
USC football coach Clay Helton, whose team was not good Friday


Saturday’s quiz
Which NFL team drafted Joe Namath?


Friday’s quiz
Shaquille O’Neal finished his NBA career with the Celtics, nine years ago.


Thursday’s quiz
Ozzie Guillen was manager of the White Sox when they won the World Series in ’05.


*********************


Saturday’s List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here…….


13) Pitt 34, Eastern Michigan 30— OK, never saw this before; Panthers score with 0:47 left to take a 34-30 lead, their first lead of the night. EMU was trying to drive for a winning score when their QB gets hit while throwing an incomplete pass with 0:10 left.


The QB gets up, one of the defenders says something to him, and the QB smacks the guy in the facemask— not good. He gets thrown out of the game; a kid playing his last college game, who threw for 311 yards and two TD’s, gets tossed before the last play. Oy.


12) Found a treasure trove of old knowledge Thursday, a website full of old stats from the USFL, which played from 1983-85. Was a very good league, good springtime entertainment.


22 different cities hosted USFL teams; Breakers played in a different city every year (Boston, New Orleans, Portland).


11) Steve Young led the LA Express to a 10-8 record in 1984, playing for coach John Hadl, who was an excellent QB himself in the old AFL for the Chargers, and then briefly for the Rams.


Young threw for 2,361 yards, ran for 515 more; they slipped to 3-15 the next year, losing a great 34-33 game to Jim Kelly and the Houston Gamblers early in the season, in front of a small gathering at the LA Coliseum.


When I say small crowd, the Express averaged 8,415 fans a game in the Coliseum. No bueno.


10) Tampa Bay Bandits averaged over 40,000 fans/game in their three-year run for Steve Spurrier, going 35-19. Florida alum John Reaves played QB most of the time for the Bandits; at one point, he was a 1st round draft pick of the Philadelphia Eagles.


9) Super Bowl winners by seed, since 1990:
seed #1) 14 Super Bowl champs
#2) 7
#3) 1 (Colts ’06)
#4) 4
#5) 1 (Giants ’07)
#6) 2 (Steelers ’05/Packers ’10)


8) Minnesota Vikings are locked into the #6 seed in the NFC; they’re likely to sit lot of guys this weekend, including QB Kirk Cousins.


7) Marshawn Lynch will apparently be paid $60,588 by the Seahawks this week.


For any NFL player with more than 10 years of experience, the minimum salary is $1,030,000 for the whole year, which breaks down to $60,588 per week over 17 weeks.


6) Washington Huskies’ QB Jacob Eason, the #4 NFL prospect at QB, according to ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr., announced Thursday that he will forgo his senior season and enter the NFL Draft.


5) Lebron James has played four games for the Lakers against the rival Clippers; he is 5-29 on the arc in those four games.


4) Louisiana Tech 14, Miami 0— Miami used three QB’s in this game; none of them played well. This is their first losing season since 2014. Not often the TV announcers are speculating during the game about the offensive coordinator getting fired.


Friday, the offensive coordinator got fired.


Miami lost nine of its last ten bowl games. Meanwhile, Skip Holtz is 6-0 in bowls at Louisiana Tech.


3) On November 12, Evansville upset Kentucky 67-64 in Rupp Arena, a great moment for the Purple Aces and their coach, Kentucky alum Walter McCarty.


Six weeks later, McCarty was put on leave by Evansville, after “……a troubling report about Coach McCarty’s interactions with a member of the campus community.”


Former Samford coach Bennie Seltzer is the Purple Aces’ interim head coach.


2) RIP Don Imus, 79, a legend on NYC radio who often made me laugh when I was driving to work. ESPN’s Mike Breen did the sports on Imus’ show for a while; Imus would bust his chops and make him laugh, while he was trying to read his report.


1) Aaron Rodgers, Danica Patrick recently bought a Malibu estate for $28M in cash; who doesn’t have $28M lying around?

 

[CNOTES]

I'll be on vacation and will try to post when i can.....In the meantime UDOG will be posting for me information as far as News Stats Etc.
I"ll be back Sunday the 5th


GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND HAPPY NEW YEAR !




SATURDAY, DECEMBER 28
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


MEM at PSU 12:00 PM
MEM +7.0
U 60.5


ND at ISU 12:00 PM
ISU +3.0
O 57.0


OKLA at LSU 04:00 PM
LSU -14.0
O 76.0


CLEM at OSU 08:00 PM
CLEM -2.0
U 62.0

 

[Justin2018]

Have a nice Vacation!