NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up
Saturday, November 26
UMass/Harvard split pair of games last two years; UMass won by 6 LY, lost by 2 the year before. Minutemen are 3-1 this year, turning ball over 24.6% of time while playing #3 tempo- they beat Temple by 3, lost at Ole Miss by 2. UMass is #329 in experience but #25 in eFG% defense. Harvard lost to Stanford by 10, Holy Cross by 11 in its two D-I games; they’re turning ball over 22.7% of time, shooting just 31% on arc. A-14 favorites are 14-16 vs spread. Ivy League underdogs are 5-6.
Georgia Tech/Tulane are both in first year of rebuilds; Tech is 3-1 with only loss at home to #87 Ohio- their wins are by 8-15-15 points. Tulane went 0-3 on trip to Orlando, losing by 19-9-5 points to Oklahoma-ASU-Missouri. Green Wave is shooting 39.5% outside arc, just 39.3% inside arc- three of their four losses are by 9+ points. This is Tulane’s first true road game. ACC home favorites are 13-8 vs spread this month. AAC road underdogs are 7-10 away from home.
James Madison is 0-5 under its new coach, after they fired a coach who won 40 games last two years; Dukes hammered their old CAA rival George Mason 69-46 LY, their first meeting since Mason bolted for the A-14. JMU is turning ball over 23.5% of time while in bottom 10 in country in forcing turnovers. George Mason won two of three games in Florida earlier this week, beating Kent State/Bradley; Patriots are shooting 26.3% on arc. CAA road underdogs are 11-4 vs spread. A-14 home favorites are 6-14 vs spread.
Xavier outscored Northern Iowa 21-9 in first 10:00 of second half, breaking halftime tie as they beat UNI 67-59 in finals of Tire Pros tourney in Orlando six days ago. Panthers shot only 33% inside arc for the game. Xavier is 5-0 with its best win over Clemson by 6; Musketeers are forcing turnovers 22.4% of time, shooting just 28% on arc. Panthers beat Arizona St/Oklahoma in Florida; they’re #73 experience team and shooting 41.2% on arc, playing 10th-slowest tempo in country. MVC road underdogs are 8-10 against the spread.
Syracuse is 4-0 with only decent opponent Monmouth (won 91-70); Orange have #1 eFG% defense in country (34%)- this game is in Brooklyn is NOT a neutral site. Syracuse should have lot of fans there. Syracuse has more depth this year than they’ve had in while; opponents are shooting 19.2% on arc against them, but this is also SU’s first game in an arena as opposed to the Dome. South Carolina is also 5-0 with a win over Michigan and an OT win vs Monmouth; Gamecocks are turning ball over 20.9% of time, but have #4 eFG% defense in country.
Davidson beat local rival Charlotte last three years by 9-6-35 points; they were 13-29 on arc in a 109-74 rout of 49ers LY. Wildcats won two of three games in Orlando LW, beating Mizzou and Arizona State after losing to Clemson by 17. Davidson is turning ball over 21.2% of time, shooting just 30.8% on arc- star G Gibbs played 33 mpg after missing first game. Charlotte won 100-95 at Elon then lost at home in OT to #256 SC-Upstate; 49ers are making 51.1% on arc, #1 in country but their eFG% defense is #321- they’re playing #21 pace in country.
Nicefille, FL tournament
Iowa is beat three teams ranked outside top 300, lost by 8 at home to Seton Hall, by 33 to Virginia last nite. Hawkeyes are subbing a lot with the #342 experience team, so they’re using pre-conference to get a young team ready for league play- they’re also playing #22 tempo. Memphis is 4-1 with four wins vs teams outside top 250; they’ve got a new coach, not much experience- they’re 4th-worst team in country on foul line right now. Tigers lost to Providence by 9 last night; they used six guys 25:00+, were 4-23 on arc in a winnable game.
Virginia is 5-0 and 24 points was closest game they’ve played; Cavaliers are playing slowest tempo in country, forcing turnovers 26% of time- their eFG% defense is #2 in country. Providence played three guys 36:00+ in 60-51 win over Memphis last nite; Friars won despite using seven guys more than 8:00, going 2-20 on arc- they were +6 in turnovers (17-11). PC is 4-1 with a 72-67 loss at Ohio State; they’re forcing turnovers 22.3% of time, playing #286 tempo with #252 experience team.
UNLV tournament
UNLV is 3-2 with all five games at home; Rebels scored 59-68 points in their two losses, 74+ in three wins- they’ve got new coach, roster that was mostly cobbled together last spring, so they are still getting to learn to play together- it takes time. Western Kentucky was crushed last night by Washington, not good for a team that starts four seniors. WKU was -12 on boards; they are 0-2 vs top 200 teams, also losing by 21 to Belmont. UNLV played three guys 33:00+ in tough loss to TCU last night. WKU played three guys 30:00+, but it wasn’t a tense game.
TCU is Washington scored 94 pts/game in winning its last four games since Yale upset them 98-90 in their opener. Huskies are #340 in experience; shooting 40.2% on arc while playing #6 tempo in country- they’re recruiting 1-and-done kids, meaning they’ll always struggle for great chemistry. Horned Frogs are are 5-0 with best win 80-71 over Illinois State; last night was their first road game. TCU is forcing turnovers 25.9% of time, shooting 40.7% on arc. Weird thing: these teams play again Wednesday in Fort Worth.
Alaskan Shootout
Oakland played Wednesday/Friday, Cal-Davis is playing third night in row. Oakland plays #12 tempo in country; they won by 8-28 points in two games vs teams ranked outside top 200. Grizzlies start three juniors and a senior; they’re not a strong defensive team but they score like hell. Cal-Davis turned ball over 18 times (-8) in 64-58 win over #261 Drake last night; Aggies are #70 in experience- they turn ball over 21.8% of time but are making 41.8% on arc. Davis lost by 14-28 point sin its two games against teams ranked in top 200.
Weber State lost three of last four games; they got crushed 76-54 by Iona last night; Wildcats were -8 in turnovers, as teams starting three sophs sometimes are. Weber is turning ball over 20.8% of time. Buffalo played four guys 30:00+ in 67-62 loss to Nevada last night; Bulls are starting two freshmen and a soph and turning ball over 23% of time while shooting just 43.7% inside arc- they’re 1-2 in D-I games, winning by 10 over #307 Niagara. Weber is playing for third night in row; Buffalo played Wednesday/Friday.
Last Sunday in Reno, Nevada beat Iona 91-76 in game Iona led by 14 late in first half, by 10 at halftime. Gaels were just 6-29 on arc, were outscored 24-12 on foul line in 76-possession game. Nevada had the tougher game last night, beating Buffalo by 5, but Iona is playing for third night in a row- they lost 6-8 Washington to leg injury- he had 29 points in game at Reno last week. Iona is 2-2 with both wins in this event; they were 13-25 on arc last night, start three seniors, two of whom are transfers. Wolf Pack used their subs for only 22:00 total last night; five starters all played 33:00+ in a 5-point win.
Armadillo's Write-Up
Saturday, November 26
UMass/Harvard split pair of games last two years; UMass won by 6 LY, lost by 2 the year before. Minutemen are 3-1 this year, turning ball over 24.6% of time while playing #3 tempo- they beat Temple by 3, lost at Ole Miss by 2. UMass is #329 in experience but #25 in eFG% defense. Harvard lost to Stanford by 10, Holy Cross by 11 in its two D-I games; they’re turning ball over 22.7% of time, shooting just 31% on arc. A-14 favorites are 14-16 vs spread. Ivy League underdogs are 5-6.
Georgia Tech/Tulane are both in first year of rebuilds; Tech is 3-1 with only loss at home to #87 Ohio- their wins are by 8-15-15 points. Tulane went 0-3 on trip to Orlando, losing by 19-9-5 points to Oklahoma-ASU-Missouri. Green Wave is shooting 39.5% outside arc, just 39.3% inside arc- three of their four losses are by 9+ points. This is Tulane’s first true road game. ACC home favorites are 13-8 vs spread this month. AAC road underdogs are 7-10 away from home.
James Madison is 0-5 under its new coach, after they fired a coach who won 40 games last two years; Dukes hammered their old CAA rival George Mason 69-46 LY, their first meeting since Mason bolted for the A-14. JMU is turning ball over 23.5% of time while in bottom 10 in country in forcing turnovers. George Mason won two of three games in Florida earlier this week, beating Kent State/Bradley; Patriots are shooting 26.3% on arc. CAA road underdogs are 11-4 vs spread. A-14 home favorites are 6-14 vs spread.
Xavier outscored Northern Iowa 21-9 in first 10:00 of second half, breaking halftime tie as they beat UNI 67-59 in finals of Tire Pros tourney in Orlando six days ago. Panthers shot only 33% inside arc for the game. Xavier is 5-0 with its best win over Clemson by 6; Musketeers are forcing turnovers 22.4% of time, shooting just 28% on arc. Panthers beat Arizona St/Oklahoma in Florida; they’re #73 experience team and shooting 41.2% on arc, playing 10th-slowest tempo in country. MVC road underdogs are 8-10 against the spread.
Syracuse is 4-0 with only decent opponent Monmouth (won 91-70); Orange have #1 eFG% defense in country (34%)- this game is in Brooklyn is NOT a neutral site. Syracuse should have lot of fans there. Syracuse has more depth this year than they’ve had in while; opponents are shooting 19.2% on arc against them, but this is also SU’s first game in an arena as opposed to the Dome. South Carolina is also 5-0 with a win over Michigan and an OT win vs Monmouth; Gamecocks are turning ball over 20.9% of time, but have #4 eFG% defense in country.
Davidson beat local rival Charlotte last three years by 9-6-35 points; they were 13-29 on arc in a 109-74 rout of 49ers LY. Wildcats won two of three games in Orlando LW, beating Mizzou and Arizona State after losing to Clemson by 17. Davidson is turning ball over 21.2% of time, shooting just 30.8% on arc- star G Gibbs played 33 mpg after missing first game. Charlotte won 100-95 at Elon then lost at home in OT to #256 SC-Upstate; 49ers are making 51.1% on arc, #1 in country but their eFG% defense is #321- they’re playing #21 pace in country.
Nicefille, FL tournament
Iowa is beat three teams ranked outside top 300, lost by 8 at home to Seton Hall, by 33 to Virginia last nite. Hawkeyes are subbing a lot with the #342 experience team, so they’re using pre-conference to get a young team ready for league play- they’re also playing #22 tempo. Memphis is 4-1 with four wins vs teams outside top 250; they’ve got a new coach, not much experience- they’re 4th-worst team in country on foul line right now. Tigers lost to Providence by 9 last night; they used six guys 25:00+, were 4-23 on arc in a winnable game.
Virginia is 5-0 and 24 points was closest game they’ve played; Cavaliers are playing slowest tempo in country, forcing turnovers 26% of time- their eFG% defense is #2 in country. Providence played three guys 36:00+ in 60-51 win over Memphis last nite; Friars won despite using seven guys more than 8:00, going 2-20 on arc- they were +6 in turnovers (17-11). PC is 4-1 with a 72-67 loss at Ohio State; they’re forcing turnovers 22.3% of time, playing #286 tempo with #252 experience team.
UNLV tournament
UNLV is 3-2 with all five games at home; Rebels scored 59-68 points in their two losses, 74+ in three wins- they’ve got new coach, roster that was mostly cobbled together last spring, so they are still getting to learn to play together- it takes time. Western Kentucky was crushed last night by Washington, not good for a team that starts four seniors. WKU was -12 on boards; they are 0-2 vs top 200 teams, also losing by 21 to Belmont. UNLV played three guys 33:00+ in tough loss to TCU last night. WKU played three guys 30:00+, but it wasn’t a tense game.
TCU is Washington scored 94 pts/game in winning its last four games since Yale upset them 98-90 in their opener. Huskies are #340 in experience; shooting 40.2% on arc while playing #6 tempo in country- they’re recruiting 1-and-done kids, meaning they’ll always struggle for great chemistry. Horned Frogs are are 5-0 with best win 80-71 over Illinois State; last night was their first road game. TCU is forcing turnovers 25.9% of time, shooting 40.7% on arc. Weird thing: these teams play again Wednesday in Fort Worth.
Alaskan Shootout
Oakland played Wednesday/Friday, Cal-Davis is playing third night in row. Oakland plays #12 tempo in country; they won by 8-28 points in two games vs teams ranked outside top 200. Grizzlies start three juniors and a senior; they’re not a strong defensive team but they score like hell. Cal-Davis turned ball over 18 times (-8) in 64-58 win over #261 Drake last night; Aggies are #70 in experience- they turn ball over 21.8% of time but are making 41.8% on arc. Davis lost by 14-28 point sin its two games against teams ranked in top 200.
Weber State lost three of last four games; they got crushed 76-54 by Iona last night; Wildcats were -8 in turnovers, as teams starting three sophs sometimes are. Weber is turning ball over 20.8% of time. Buffalo played four guys 30:00+ in 67-62 loss to Nevada last night; Bulls are starting two freshmen and a soph and turning ball over 23% of time while shooting just 43.7% inside arc- they’re 1-2 in D-I games, winning by 10 over #307 Niagara. Weber is playing for third night in row; Buffalo played Wednesday/Friday.
Last Sunday in Reno, Nevada beat Iona 91-76 in game Iona led by 14 late in first half, by 10 at halftime. Gaels were just 6-29 on arc, were outscored 24-12 on foul line in 76-possession game. Nevada had the tougher game last night, beating Buffalo by 5, but Iona is playing for third night in a row- they lost 6-8 Washington to leg injury- he had 29 points in game at Reno last week. Iona is 2-2 with both wins in this event; they were 13-25 on arc last night, start three seniors, two of whom are transfers. Wolf Pack used their subs for only 22:00 total last night; five starters all played 33:00+ in a 5-point win.
